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The low carbon idea is a frivolous fashion, but could airships take some freight from container ships? Seems unlikely but there are visions here of giant caravans of airships lifting into jetstreams and travelling perpetually eastwards. And there are already models competing for start up funds. Airships use a lot less fuel than jets do, but a lot more helium, which is a point that gets a mention, but not much of an answer. How airships could provide the future of green transportAmbrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph A Boeing 747 requires at least 70 tonnes of aviation fuel to cross the Atlantic. Mr Handley says his ARH 50 model has the same cargo payload but needs just five tonnes of fuel for the same journey, yet can still reach 300 km/h at high altitude. Airships can land anywhere there is a flat space — they don’t need the runways and airports. They can get closer to their destination. Even landing on a river. An academic paper from the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis In Austria proposes using the Jet Stream to transport cargo on transcontinental routes without any need for power beyond the initial lift and descent. The cargo ships would float on high winds above 40,000 feet at an average speed of 160 km/h, displacing fleets of container shipping at sea. The study claims that they would cut fuel use by 96pc. The circular flow would always be from West to East – Shanghai to Los Angeles, New York to London, or Frankfurt to Mumbai – rotating in a perennial circuit. It would take eight days to cross half the world by the northern Jet Stream, and seven days by the southern route, beating maritime shipping on time as well as emissions. These unmanned super-Hindenburgs controlled by artificial intelligence could be over a mile long, spectral airships passing far overhead in caravans along regulated bands near the troposphere, emitting no sound or CO2. Is there enough helium in the world to sustain a big airship industry? We know a low carbon fantasy (with subsidies) can support an uncompetitive industry for a long time. But do airships make sense without the subsidy? Some Australian researchers visiting China turned out to be effectively Chinese researchers funded by Australians.What does it mean to be an Australian citizen paid by Australian taxpayers if it’s “OK” to take $150,000 extra from the CCP, plus benefits for the wife and kids, and in some cases also keep that a secret from the Uni in Australia that they work for? How about having a cloned research project in China studying the same high tech topics and producing patents owned by the Chinese government? The “Thousand Talents Plan” has been described by FBI director Christopher Wray as “economic espionage”. It includes military technology, drone automation, AI, biotech, and many high tech areas. To put a fine point on it, some of these researchers are signing up to agreements to obey Chinese laws, and which require them to ask permission from the CCP before they disclose these arrangements to their Australian employers. We might be tempted to call this all sort of names, but this sort of activity is apparently legal. It’s just a loophole being exploited. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s new report: Hunting the phoenix: The Chinese Communist Party’s search for technology and talent. Remember Peter Ridd can be sacked for being uncollegial, but it appears that academics who may undermine national interests and give away intellectual property are acting within the law. Where were the Vice Chancellors? What were they thinking: Employment contracts stop Australian professors from speaking freely in Australia, but allow them to serve the CCP at our expense? Looks like one civilization is fast asleep at the wheel. Some things matter: China exploits Australia’s lax laws to sign up researchers for secretive programSharri Markson, and Kylar Louisikian, The Australian The Chinese government is actively recruiting leading Australian scientists for a secretive research program that offers lucrative salaries and perks but requires their inventions to be patented in China and obliges them to abide by Chinese law. The Australian’s investigation has exposed that universities do not know: how many Thousand Talents Plan recipients are in their employ; if their academics are lodging patents in China; and whether their academics are being paid second salaries by affiliated Chinese universities. Thank goodness for The Australian newspaper which has a large feature story today. Where was Our ABC?Andrew Hastie M.P. has called for an “urgent” inquiry into the Thousand Talents Plan. The Australian’s summary:
It works out pretty well for interested researchers: Professor Yu specialises in drone automation and artificial intelligence, and has been working on an area of intense interest to the Chinese government: aerial warfare and co-ordinating thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles to co-operate in the air. Chinese-language reports state he is part of Chinese government recruitment programs including the Qianjiang Scholar of Zhejiang Provincial Talents program and the Taishan Scholars Project, Shandong Province. Despite being on full-time pay at Curtin [in Western Australia], where he receives a 60 per cent loading on a professor’s salary and his research institute has been funded to the tune of $4m, The Australian understands he has spent most of the year in China. After The Australian contacted him and Curtin University, Professor Yu’s Hangzhou Dianzi profile became unavailable for public view. Curtin declined to answer specific questions about him, despite issuing a press release with great fanfare when it appointed him to the role of Optus Chair of Artificial Intelligence in May last year. … Some in the US woke up to this late last year:Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg, Dec 2019 Officials are concerned about spying and intellectual-property theft. U.S. officials say TTP encourages economic espionage and theft of intellectual property, the issue at the heart of President Trump’s trade war with China. Was any of this a secret? Hardly. Until last September, China published the names of recruits on an official website. That all ended when a Chinese American engineer (and TTP participant) working for General Electric Co. was arrested for allegedly stealing tech secrets from the company. That’s a lot of patent applications: ![]() Patent applications from China and the US. : Bloomberg
The CCP have been recruiting scientists all over the world:Ben Packham in The Australian Chinese Communist Party uses ‘talent stations’ to lure scientists: reportThe Chinese Communist Party has at least 57 talent recruitment “stations” in Australia to lure the top scientists to work for Beijing on Xi Jinping’s goal of global dominance in critical technologies, a new report says. The ASPI report says an estimated 1000 Australian scientists are believed to have been recruited to participate in its overseas talent plans, with many working on technologies that can be harnessed by the Chinese military. China’s talent program recruiters are paid up to $40,000 for each scientist they recruit, plus annual operating costs, the report by China analyst Alex Joske says. They are part of a web of more than 600 such stations located in technologically advanced countries. In the highest profile example of alleged misconduct by a Chinese talent plan scientist, Harvard Professor Charles Lieber, a nanotechnologist with no Chinese heritage, was arrested earlier this year for allegedly failing to disclose a US$50,000 monthly salary from a Chinese university. Notably, China doesn’t want to adopt many of our climate scientists, I can’t think why. But there are several that are claimed to be involved. For example, Wenju Cai at CSIRO is named in many Chinese sites as being a part of the Thousand Talents Plan, though the CSIRO says this is not true. He works at CSIRO in Climate and marine science, and officially also at the Qingdao National Marine Laboratory in China. That lab has 3,000 researchers and some of them are involved in satellite mounted laser detection of submarines at depths of 500m. Professor Cai admits to being a part of the Aoshan Talent program, a different Chinese program which The Australian tells us can pay up to $200,000 a year with research funds of up to $1m, and includes help for some to buy a house if they sign up for the 6 year plan. The Australian does not specifically claim any benefits in Professor Cai’s case. There is also Huijun Zhao, Griffith University, director of the Centre for Clean Environment and Energy, which researches chemical and microbiological approaches to pollution. The Australian only says he receives a daily allowance for expenses when he is in China. Also Dai Liming University of NSW, a specialist in carbon based, metalfree renewable energy technology. Professor Andrew McMinn, Uni of Tas, who is a researcher of sea ice ecology and environmental change. His university knew about it. How about Professor Zhaoyang (Joe) Dong, University of NSW, who is a specialist in power system planning and stability and is director of the UNSW Digital Grid Futures Institute. Professor Dong heads one of Australia’s largest energy research projects — the ARC Hub for Integrated Energy Storage. “As a consultant he also leads the development of the load models for Western Power Corporations daily usage in operations and planning of Western Australia;s transmission network. He further leads the gas and electricity network co-planning for the $12.6m CSIRO Future Grid Project.” Then there is Professor Guoxiu Wang at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) who denies being a Thousand Talent recruit. He specialises in energy storage and batteries. UTS says that China is loosely referring to him being in the Thousand Talents program and it is merely a mark of respect, not that he is part of the official program. The Australian discovered his name was on 11 patent applications, but Professor Dong says he had no knowledge of 10 of those applications. He has asked for his name to be taken off them. If there are weaknesses and vulnerabilities in Australian energy grids, China is possibly very well informed of them, and if we did discover an efficient battery we might end up buying them from China and paying for the royalties on their discovery too. * * * Commenters please note: “The Australian is not suggesting the academics have acted inappropriately.” That goes for Jo Nova too, and I ask commenters to refrain from suggesting this behaviour is illegal. It may be unethical, unAustralian, shortsighted, naive and selfish, but it is not illegal. More fool us. There are plenty of targets to blame for enabling this behaviour and allowing this to go on for years. Solar Power, not-so-sustainable?Solar panels need a special kind of recycling that costs 4 to 8 times as much as the recycled bits and bobs are worth. And the first major generation of solar panels will hit their use-by date soon. Solar Panels Are Starting to Die, Leaving Behind Toxic Trash Maddie Stone, Wired By 2050, the International Renewable Energy Agency projects that up to 78 million metric tons of solar panels will have reached the end of their life, and that the world will be generating about 6 million metric tons of new solar e-waste annually. While the latter number is a small fraction of the total e-waste humanity produces each year, standard electronics recycling methods don’t cut it for solar panels. Recovering the most valuable materials from one, including silver and silicon, requires bespoke recycling solutions. The solar sleeper awakes:Most solar manufacturers claim their panels will last for about 25 years, and the world didn’t start deploying solar widely until the early 2000s. As a result, a fairly small number of panels are being decommissioned today. PV Cycle, a nonprofit dedicated to solar panel take-back and recycling, collects several thousand tons of solar e-waste across the European Union each year… In the EU the producers have to recycle the panels they make. Rules to deal with solar remnants are apparently in progress in Australia, India and Japan, but there are almost none in the USA. At a typical e-waste facility, this high-tech sandwich will be treated crudely. Recyclers often take off the panel’s frame and its junction box to recover the aluminum and copper, then shred the rest of the module, including the glass, polymers, and silicon cells, which get coated in a silver electrode and soldered using tin and lead. (Because the vast majority of that mixture by weight is glass, the resultant product is considered an impure, crushed glass.) Tao and his colleagues estimate that a recycler taking apart a standard 60-cell silicon panel can get about $3 for the recovered aluminum, copper, and glass. Vanderhoof, meanwhile, says that the cost of recycling that panel in the US is between $12 and $25—after transportation costs, which “oftentimes equal the cost to recycle.” At the same time, in states that allow it, it typically costs less than a dollar to dump a solar panel in a solid-waste landfill. Second-hand solar panels are being sent to the third world. Makes a cheaper form of landfill… h/t Enoch R A satirical take on the media.
How to Sell Protest Footage to FOX AND CNN, by Ryan Long. So there’s still a bias, but if he’d used a sledgehammer CNN fans wouldn’t be laughing too, and they need to see this more than Fox fans do. It’s really quite a scandal. Historians will marvel that societies that were advanced enough to stream reality-tv-shows at 100 million bits per second, were also so backwards that half the population was deficient in Vitamin D — something that costs 6 cents a dose or comes free from the sun. Nearly 60% of older Germans were deficient, and the ESTHER study puts a fine point on how much that matters. Almost 10,000 people were followed for 15 years in Germany, and during that time about half the people who died of respiratory illnesses might not have died if they had enough Vitamin D. In this German study 44% did not have adequate Vitamin D and about 1 in 6 people have levels so low they are clinically deficient. Imagine if someone found a drug that stopped nearly half of all influenza deaths? Right now, the Northern Hemisphere has higher levels of Vitamin D than most months which is quite likely reducing the death rates. The message needs to get out about Vitamin D before the next Northern Winter.
In terms of respiratory diseases, those whose vitamin D was under the recommended levels were twice as likely to die. And those that were clinicially deficient were three times as likely to die. This was especially true for women, with the risk of dying as much as eight fold higher. As I said in April — Vitamin D affects 200 genes and is implicated in many afflictions: Vitamin D levels also correlate with lower rates of cancer, diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma, heart disease, dental caries, preeclampsia, autoimmune disease, depression, anxiety, and sleep disorders. Vitamin D influences over 200 genes. It’s so crucial, it was likely the reason northern Europeans evolved whiter skin. The lack of sunlight and the introduction of grains in diets (as opposed to eating liver and whales) meant that Europeans weren’t getting enough D from either food or sun. The selective pressure was so strong that lighter skin rapidly took over all the northern communities. Eskimos didn’t need to go white — they were still getting D from offal and plenty of fish. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137299v1 The risk ratios are pretty astonishing: The Abstract Background. The COVID-19 pandemic goes along with increased mortality from acute respiratory disease, and measures to limit the spread of the infection go along with increased risk of vitamin D deficiency, especially among high risk groups. It has been suggested that vitamin D3 supplementation might help to reduce respiratory disease mortality. Methods. We assessed the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency, defined by 25(OH)D blood levels of 30-50 and <30 nmol/L, respectively, and their association with mortality from respiratory diseases during 15 years of follow-up in a cohort of 9,548 adults aged 50-75 years from Saarland, Germany. Results. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were common (44% and 15%, respectively). Compared to sufficient vitamin D status, respiratory disease mortality was 2.1 (95%-CI 1.3-3.2)- and 3.0 (95%-CI 1.8-5.2)-fold increased, respectively. Although significant increases were seen in both women and men, they were much stronger among women, with 8.5 (95% CI 2.4-30.1) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.1-4.4)-fold increase of respiratory disease mortality in case of vitamin D deficiency among women and men, respectively (p-value for interaction =0.041). Overall, 41% (95% CI 20%-58%) of respiratory disease mortality was statistically attributable to vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency. Conclusion. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency are common and account for a large proportion of respiratory disease mortality in older adults, supporting suggestions that vitamin D3 supplementation might make a major contribution to limit the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among women. Don’t get caught without your vitamin D. (UPDATE: and if you take D3, best add K2 as well lest that Ca end up in your arteries instead of your bones). REFERENCEBrenner, Holleczek, and Schoettker, B. (2020) Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency and mortality from respiratory diseases in a cohort of older adults: potential for limiting the death toll during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137299v1 See also: Vitamin D deficiency affects so many health conditions. Some thought provoking insights from Yoram Hazony in The Challenge Of Marxism. I’m not inclined to read analysis of anything Marxist, but this moment in history has some uncanny similarities I was not aware of, and Hazony connects the dots from Karl to Kamala (so to speak). He paints a compelling pattern, even if I want to add details and patterns myself. It’s a springboard… Read it all. The Marxists have forced out the Conservatives, now the wheel has turned and they’re coming for the Liberals, argues Hazony. The Liberal world thought they were marching through the institutions but the momentum was with the Marxists among them, who have now forged ahead and are turning on their own. Will the liberals drop their liberalism and adopt marxism, or will they push back?Anti-Marxist liberals are about to find themselves in much the same situation that has characterized conservatives, nationalists, and Christians for some time now: They are about to find themselves in the opposition. This means that some brave liberals will soon be waging war on the very institutions they so recently controlled. They will try to build up alternative educational and media platforms in the shadow of the prestigious, wealthy, powerful institutions they have lost. Meanwhile, others will continue to work in the mainstream media, universities, tech companies, philanthropies, and government bureaucracy, learning to keep their liberalism to themselves and to let their colleagues believe that they too are Marxists—just as many conservatives learned long ago how to keep their conservatism to themselves and let their colleagues believe they are liberals. This is the new reality that is emerging. There is blood in the water and the new Marxists will not rest content with their recent victories. In America, they will press their advantage and try to seize the Democratic Party. They will seek to reduce the Republican Party to a weak imitation of their own new ideology, or to ban it outright as a racist organization. Language is a weapon, and they shalt not be known publicly as Marxists but by a shifting sea of names: …they disorient their opponents by referring to their beliefs with a shifting vocabulary of terms, including “the Left,” “Progressivism,” “Social Justice,” “Anti-Racism,” “Anti-Fascism,” “Black Lives Matter,” “Critical Race Theory,” “Identity Politics,” “Political Correctness,” “Wokeness,” and more. When liberals try to use these terms they often find themselves deplored for not using them correctly, and this itself becomes a weapon in the hands of those who wish to humiliate and ultimately destroy them. But they are Marxists: The new Marxists do not use the technical jargon that was devised by 19th-century Communists. They don’t talk about the bourgeoisie, proletariat, class struggle, alienation of labor, commodity fetishism, and the rest, and in fact they have developed their own jargon tailored to present circumstances in America, Britain, and elsewhere. Nevertheless, their politics are based on Marx’s framework for critiquing liberalism (what Marx calls the “ideology of the bourgeoisie”) and overthrowing it. We can describe Marx’s political framework as follows: Hazony goes through the core Marxist concepts and we can see how so much of this framework is at play today: There is class warfare preying on people’s envy, the oppressors and oppressed. There is the invisible unknown hand of oppression that has been “AWoken”. 1. Oppressor and oppressed “…people invariably form themselves into cohesive groups (he calls them classes), which exploit one another…” 2. False consciousness “…the liberal businessmen, politicians, lawyers, and intellectuals who keep this system in place are unaware that they are the oppressors,…. even the working class may not know that they are exploited. “ 3. Revolutionary reconstitution of society The oppressed seize control of the state. Revolution or war. 4. Total disappearance of class antagonisms Everything will be peace and roses again if they just throw out the Orange Man. Like Marx, it’s a wonderful future but no one has any idea how to get back to peace and happiness after the revolution. I can’t do it all justice without repeating much of it. Hazoiny argues that Marxists ideas are attractive because there is a little truth underlying the tension. Groups do form. Power relations between them do have different interests and it can resemble a ruler and slave, but in most normal times it is a symbiotic relationship, not pure exploitation. The shallowness of Marxism is the superficial appeal without the principles that go under and around it. I crave a slightly more biological model — one that uses evolution and an understanding of groups and battles from power. But Hazomy powers through some core contradictions that power the Liberals. I think the biggest problem with Liberals is that they are not liberal (when the crunch comes) on the most important liberty liberals are meant to defend — free speech. Hazony writes of a group that aims for an impractical Utopia, believes in reason rather than tradition, and thus the Marxists use every admission of failing as a way to control the Liberals. In 2020 the control has become hidden in plain view as nearly every opinion (other than the permitted one) is delegitimized. Thus the endless dance of liberalism and Marxism, which goes like this: 1. Liberals declare that henceforth all will be free and equal, emphasizing that reason (not tradition) will determine the content of each individual’s rights. 2. Marxists, exercising reason, point to many genuine instances of unfreedom and inequality in society, decrying them as oppression and demanding new rights. 3. Liberals, embarrassed by the presence of unfreedom and inequality after having declared that all would be free and equal, adopt some of the Marxists’ demands for new rights. 4. Return to #1 above and repeat. Liberals and Marxists are locked in this endless dance. I know that many liberals are confused, and that they still suppose there are various alternatives before them. But it isn’t true. At this point, most of the alternatives that existed a few years ago are gone. Liberals will have to choose between two alternatives: either they will submit to the Marxists, and help them bring democracy in America to an end. Or they will assemble a pro-democracy alliance with conservatives. There aren’t any other choices. (Read it all). https://quillette.com/2020/08/16/the-challenge-of-marxism/ Hypothetically, can anyone think of a scenario where an honest win is still possible, and it will be seen to be an honest win?
Mail in votes can also be cast early — before even one debate. Sixteen states will allow voting before September 29th with people missing fully five weeks of campaigning and discussion. Isn’t there something deeply wrong about that — something that favors the lesser scrutinized candidate? Something that favours the candidate the media wants to elect and does free advertising for? Then there is the systematic problem with every man, woman and dog becoming effective electoral officers handling ballots with no observers present. We know Mail-in Voting offers a huge advantage to the Democrats and collectivists, and they know it too — just look at which side yells the loudest in protest at the thought that it might be fraudulent. The potential to cheat is so obvious most countries don’t allow mail-in ballots. Thirty seven US states have already changed their mail-in ballot rules, but overseas almost no country allows it without photo ID, or limit it to the disabled or people overseas. How is this not a recipe for disaster? Frank Miele: Election Roulette: How to Rig an OutcomeUnlike absentee ballots or early voting, which require active participation by the voter, universal mail-in voting means that every registered voter will be sent a ballot whether they want one or not — heck, even whether they are alive or not. Fact of the matter is that cheating on mail ballots is child’s play. Here, off the top of my head, are four ways to monkey with the vote: 1) A hard-core Democrat union-rep mailman is collecting mail from households in a neighborhood that skews Republican. He dutifully collects the ballots left for him, but then dumps them in the trash or (smarter) burns them in his fire pit later that night. What is the protection against this happening? Or any of the remaining scenarios below? 2) A hard-core Democrat nurse’s aide making 10 bucks an hour decides to monkey-wrench the system that she thinks is exploiting her. When she collects the ballots from 120 residents in the nursing home where she works, she volunteers to drop them at the post office “to make sure they are secure,” but then heads home and buries them in the backyard. 3) A pizza delivery guy enters an apartment building with a large pepperoni and leaves with a carton of blank ballots that were left in the lobby for pickup by the residents. The pizza guy happens to be a member of antifa and he has no problem filling out all the ballots against President Trump and the Republicans. Even if the fraud is discovered, it is highly unlikely that all the ballots will be disqualified. 4) A Democratic campaign aide who is working to “get out the vote” in a neighborhood with a high proportion of older people knocks on doors and offers to help voters mark their ballots. Not a citizen? No problem. That’s been waived. Not sure who to vote for? How about that nice Democrat! And if you do happen to vote Republican, no problem — I will deliver it for you … right to the Dumpster! So when Election 2020 is over, if the Dems don’t win, they’ll be outraged because the polls told them they would win. If the Trump supporters lose, they’ll know it was rigged, because there is no way it won’t be. It’s just a question of “how much”. When elections can’t be done so that either side respects the outcome, it defeats the whole point of an election as a peaceful way to sort out national differences. How is that not eventually the road to civil war? h/t David E
OK. Missed Tuesday in half the world. Good news for Donald Trump. Overconfidence meant Bill Shorten lost the unloseable election in Australia last year. Joe Biden is following in his footsteps — spending $2T on a war against cheap energy in a bid for nicer weather that no one believes will happen in their lifetime. He doesn’t have to do this: Biden gambles on placing climate change at the heart of the US energy policyDerek Brower, Financial Times … Joe Biden — armed with a commanding lead in the polls ahead of November’s US presidential election — now promises a root-and-branch overhaul of the American energy system that will put climate change at its heart and which one worried industry adviser describes as “a Tet offensive” on the fossil fuels industry. The plan, which will be aired again at the Democratic party convention this week, earmarks $2tn in spending over the next four years to use climate policy to drag the economy out of its pandemic-era recession. In Australia they called it “a climate election” and the people voted “No”. The result was surprise and a bitter disappointment to left leaning commentariat. US polls on climate change showed only a few days ago that the voters rank climate second to last. More windmills will not save the US economy from a rogue virus. Either Biden hasn’t done his research or he is overconfident enough to toss in burdensome gambit policies so he can claim a “mandate” afterwards.
Three important findings from three different studies: 1. That people who survive Covid have more antibodies against Covid virus spikes than the nucleocapsid shell. 2. Monoclonal antibodies against the spike are already being developed and are progressing apace. 3. But many antibody tests are looking for the wrong antibodies. A new study found a different pattern of antibody responses in people who recovered from Covid compared to those who died. Survivors had a antibodies predominantly against the viral spike (S), whereas early in the infection those who would not recover had more antibodies against the outer shell, known as the nucleocapsid (N). This has implications — in vaccines, testing, treatment and possibly figuring out why some people don’t even get sick at all. Atyeo et al is a small study. But one tantalizing line suggests the pattern of antibody responses was even better at predicting who would die than the age of the patient, which was until now the best clue we had. It appears that some patients had a strong immune response but they were making more of the wrong kind of antibodies, and perhaps these would not able to neutralize, or stop the virus spreading within. Atyeo et al looked at 22 patients to find out the difference between the immune responses of those who died and those who didn’t. Then they tested how well they could predict who would live and die in another group of 40 patients. Vaccines that elicit a reaction to the spike will be more useful. Vaccines that don’t may even do more harm than good. ![]() Image: Scientific Animations On each SARS Cov2 virion there are around 100 copies of the spike but there are 1,000 copies of the nucleocapsid. So viruses may be producing ten times as much N type protein. No wonder then that some people are reacting to the N protein. The researchers wondered if it was sheer viral load that defined who would survive, but say the data suggests that it was the failure to produce S protein antibodies that was more important. Perhaps it’s bad luck and random chance, but it may turn out that past exposure to particular coronavirus common colds (which leaves some T-cell protection) could either help or hurt the development of the right antibodies. (More T-cells soon, but not today). Monoclonal antibodies may save the dayIdeally we could just inject the right antibodies into people and give them instant — albeit temporary — protection. But blood plasma from recovered patients is not exactly on tap and may come with “other surprises”. But there are teams working on isolating the “memory B cells” from survivors and then choosing the best so we can clone them up. These are called monoclonal antibodies, and will allow mass production of the right antibodies. One NIH team have already picked five survivors, and isolated 252 monoclonal antibody potential lines to check. 19 of those turned out to be very useful at neutralizing the virus. Nine directly targeted the hot receptor binding domain on the end of the spike, which is probably the most useful way to stop the virus getting into human cells. Even if we don’t get a vaccine that worked well, we can always ramp up mass production of these monoclonal antibodies. We can give these to people with weakened immune systems who couldn’t mount their own defense, and unlike a vaccine, we don’t have to wait weeks for them to develop protection. We can also give them to health workers or high risk people to prevent them getting sick in the first place. This protection may last weeks or months. It’s just one of many tools we now have, and just another reason why I’m so optimistic that we will find a way to beat this virus sooner rather than later. It’s just a question of time. All the restrictions and quarantines are temporary — and there are hundreds of solutions on the way. Millions of serology tests may be looking for the wrong antibodiesAntibody tests often look for antibodies targeting the nucleocapsid, but not also the spike. Which means they may overestimate the amount of people with the healthy protective type of antibody. In the second study (McAndrews et al) used 484 blood samples from before the pandemic, and found about 3% of healthy people who’ve never had Covid have antibodies to the coronavirus nucleocapsid, but they don’t have any antibodies to the Covid virus spike. In samples from Houston in 2020, slightly more, 3.6%, have antibodies to the nucleocapsid, but only about 1.6% have antibodies to the spike. Abbott and Roche have together shipped over 23 million antibody tests to the US. It appears these confirm only antibodies to the N-protein, with over 200 commercial and hospital laboratory testing facilities currently using these tests. The authors warn that we need better targeted antibody tests to figure out who is immune to Covid. Though the published seroconversion studies are looking for antibodies to the spikes. To put that in perspective, we already know that a bit under half of the population won’t get a symptomatic reaction to Covid. But we still don’t know why that’s the case or who they are in advance. This research doesn’t change the asymptomatic rate. But people testing positive to the antibody test may not have the protection that they think they have. GEN Genetic Engineering and Biotech News Keep reading → By 2030 weather reports may map out tomorrows blackouts, todayMatthew Wright for the DailyMail California orders rolling blackouts for up to two MILLION people as record-breaking heat wave grips the state with temperatures hitting 112 degrees and crowds flocking to beaches
So that’s a hot 44.4 C in the San Joaquin Valley, while L.A.’s extreme heatwave is all of 35. degrees C. These are the first set of rolling blackouts since 2001. Obviously the USA is behind Australia in the race to the Unreliable Future. With temperatures soaring above 100 degrees in many parts of the state, and millions of residents stuck at home amid the coronavirus pandemic, experts feared the high demand for power would overwhelm the grid. ‘A Stage 3 Emergency is declared when demand outpaces available supply. Rotating power interruptions have been initiated to maintain stability of the electric grid,’ the Independent System Operator announced shortly before 6pm. Despite residents being networked, swamped in twitter, facebook, mobile phones, tablets and spam they were not able to be notified: Residents were unable to be notified due to the emergency announcement, leaving thousands of vulnerable people suddenly without air-conditioning in the midst of a severe heatwave. Californians were being asked to not use major appliances between 3pm and 10pm and to turn off unnecessary lights. (For every 300 LED’s they turn off, someone will be able to run an air conditioner.) They should also close the drapes and sit in the dark. Imagine if it was actually hot in LA? h.t Richard Ilfeld who says : “A heat wave, and lots of people at homes using air conditioning, and a renewable energy mandate = rolling blackouts. Shocker, right?”
They told us if we stopped driving our cars that global CO2 levels would fall. But after 6 months of the most draconian low carbon diet ever, Cape Grimm Tasmania is still measuring a normal rise in CO2 levels. Here’s the wild absurdity — Covid restrictions are expected to cut human emissions by 4 – 7% but to reach the Paris Target, we “need” exactly that kind of reduction every single year for the next ten years.
h/t to Chris Gillham again Zoe Loh, Helen Cleaugh, Paul Krummel, Ray Langanfelds, The Conversion …our measurements show more CO₂ accumulated in the atmosphere between January and July 2020 than during the same period in 2017 or 2018. Look at the graph (below) of CO2 levels rising on their annual cycle each year. There was a huge reduction from 2016 to 2017. It’s almost like China built lots of coal power plants, then disassembled them. That, or perhaps CO2 levels are controlled by plankton and have nothing much to do with human activity.
This is terrible news, but it’s helpful terrible news?:It’s clear COVID-19 has not solved the climate change problem. But this fact helps us understand the magnitude of change required if we’re to stabilise the global climate system Their excuses are entertaining — Cape Grimm doesn’t show any reduction yet because it’s a long way from the Northern Hemisphere where the biggest reductions were, and the reductions are a “drop in the ocean”. Spot the effect of coronavirus:
Do the emissions mathsCovid restrictions are expected to cut human emissions by 4 – 7% but the bald truth is that we need a 3 to 7% reduction every single year. And for the next ten years. Research in May estimated that due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, global annual average emissions for 2020 would be between 4.2% and 7.5% lower than for 2019. Let’s simplistically assume CO₂ concentration growth reduces by the same amount. There would be 0.08-0.23 ppm less CO₂ in the atmosphere by the end of 2020 than if no pandemic occurred. This variation is well within the natural 1 ppm/year annual variability in CO₂ growth. To achieve [The Paris Target], global CO₂ emissions must decline by 3% and 7% each year, respectively, until 2030, according to the United Nations Emissions Gap Report. Flashback to the importance of phytoplankton:Previously Tom Quirk found a huge 2.5Gt carbon spike in 1990 (which is 9Gt of CO2) — as if three extra Chinas were suddenly emitting CO2 that year. The best explanation was that changes in wind patterns and ocean currents meant it was a bad year for phytoplankton. When phytoplankton struggle, they don’t draw down the usual CO2, hence the spike. Another study (Martiny, 2013) found that phytoplankton might be drawing up twice as much carbon as modelers thought. While Guidi et al 2015 looked at viruses and discovered that only 10 out of 5,000 were predictive of CO2 levels and these were viruses that infected plankton. Humans put out only 4% of global CO2, so in terms of whether humans can outcompete cyanobacteria et al, the answer appears to be “no”.
Posts on phytoplantonOcean plankton suck up twice the carbon we thought they did The mystery of a massive 9Gt of CO2 that came and went — could it be phytoplankton? Phytoplankton are much bigger players in CO2 levels than realized Donald Trump would be delighted if Biden and Harris make climate change a leading issue. Climate change is the luxury fear people wear on their sleeves when they can afford it. It’s a piece of fashion. Optional and discarded at a moment’s notice. Amid COVID-19, Americans don’t care about climate change anymoreWill Johnson, Fortune Magazine In a survey we at the Harris Poll conducted last December, American adults said climate change was the number one issue facing society. Today, it comes in second to last on a list of a dozen options, ahead of only overpopulation. Among Gen X men, in fact, more than third dismiss climate change as unimportant. COVID-19 and the recession have, of course, reordered priorities around the world. We asked a panel of U.S. adults a series of questions about today’s most crucial issues, environmental policy options, and their own behavior. In all three categories, I was personally surprised and discouraged to discover that our devotion to the world around us is flagging. The rise in the skepticism of the Gen X men is interesting. In UK polls, the peak age of believers was 30 – 50 years which includes a lot of Gen Xers. The pandemic is undoing years of activism:And when the pandemic ends—or at least is suitably controlled—American adults say they’ll behave in ways that would increase their carbon footprint. According to our survey, we’ll drive as much as we did before, take public transportation less, bicycle or walk less, buy more clothes, and have more stuff packaged up and shipped to our homes. And most of us plan to jack up the home AC and heat even more than we already have. It’s taken two decades of relentless advertising to achieve mass compliance and new habits, but just a few months to be reminded of how convenient some things are. The pandemic gave people permission to break the old rules. This must be killing the greens. This is perhaps not as huge a shift as implied. Climate change belief has always been wafer thin, and prone to coming and going at a moments notice. No matter how many “cared” when asked the right question, when they have to rank their concerns “climate change” is always near the bottom. h/t to Speedy and Helen. :- )
Some people think Green voters have a Marxist grand plan to take over the levers of power. But it’s more mundane…
The Chaser. Nine years ago. Good satire hurts.
Just letting readers know that I and the moderation team are trying to find ways to improve the quality of the comments in some threads. In a frustrating, difficult era, we’re especially looking for old fashioned good manners. That and the ability to ask good questions. Thanks for making a special effort.
Kamala Harris is running to be the next US President. In case anyone hasn’t heard, rumors are that Joe Biden health is iffy and he is the temporary filler to get over the line, and if so, the VP then becomes The P. It’s not just a fringe idea. In a Rasmussen poll, 59% of voters say “it’s likely.” So, the pocket guide to Kamala Harris for skeptics is that according to Progressive Punch, she’s further left than Bernie Sanders which is quite the feat. Appropriately she has a $10 Trillion dollar plan to get better weather, and “aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2045” — which would be five years quicker than the famous Green New Deal. How extreme is Kamala Harris? Pretty extreme says Kyle Smith, National ReviewThere are various measures for these things, but according to Progressive Punch (“Leading with the Left”), Kamala Harris is the fourth farthest-left of any senator with a score of 96.76 percent out of 100 on “crucial votes,” despite moderating very slightly in the period when she was running for president. Elizabeth Warren is fifth, Kirsten Gillibrand is sixth, and Bernie Sanders is tenth. Here is a portion of the chart. Put another way, there are 100 Senators in the US Congress and apparently only 3 were more radical. Kamala Harris was a state attorney general who abused her position to try to silence skeptics. On Kamala HarrisKevin D Williamson Harris was a leader in the junta of Democratic state attorneys general that attempted to criminalize dissent in the matter of global warming, using her office’s investigatory powers to target and harass non-profit policy groups while she and her counterpart in New York attempted to shake down Exxon on phony fraud cases. Until she was stopped by a federal court, Harris was laying subpoenas on organizations such as the Americans for Prosperity Foundation, a conservative-leaning group that is critical of Democratic global-warming proposals. She demanded private information that the organizations were not legally obliged to disclose, including financial information and donor lists, in order to be able to subject the supporters of right-leaning groups to legal and financial harassment. This was, as a federal judge confirmed, an obvious and unquestionable violation of the First Amendment. It was also a serious abuse of power. Why does any of this matter in far distant Oz? In a world of Sino sabre-rattling the leader of the planet’s largest military force has a certain gravitational pull on policies overseas. Any nation that hopes to share the umbrella will feel reluctant to walk a wildly different path. Eighty two days to go.
Contradictions abound in the Rasmussen poll. The VP may be President one day, but more than half of the voters don’t care who Biden picks. And more than half the country say they won’t vote for Trump, but aren’t interested in who they will vote for. Welcome to 2020 politics: … only 45% of all voters say Biden’s choice of a running mate is important to their vote this fall, including 23% who say it’s Very Important. This compares to 76% who say generally speaking that a candidate’s vice presidential nominee is important to their vote, with 34% who feel it’s Very Important. But then just over half of voters continue to say they’re likely to vote against President Trump this fall, and a sizable majority of those voters don’t seem to care who runs against him. Greenpeace has a handy list of all the legislation she has introduced or co-sponsored in order to stop storms: Keep reading → |
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