By 2030 weather reports may map out tomorrows blackouts, today
Matthew Wright for the DailyMail
California orders rolling blackouts for up to two MILLION people as record-breaking heat wave grips the state with temperatures hitting 112 degrees and crowds flocking to beaches
- Rolling blackouts could affect up to 250,000 homes and businesses in the state
- Such a power cut has not been implemented since 2001, when there was a massive electric crisis
- San Joaquin Valley will see temperatures of 112 degrees and Los Angeles is expected to reach 96 degrees
So that’s a hot 44.4 C in the San Joaquin Valley, while L.A.’s extreme heatwave is all of 35. degrees C. These are the first set of rolling blackouts since 2001. Obviously the USA is behind Australia in the race to the Unreliable Future.
With temperatures soaring above 100 degrees in many parts of the state, and millions of residents stuck at home amid the coronavirus pandemic, experts feared the high demand for power would overwhelm the grid.
‘A Stage 3 Emergency is declared when demand outpaces available supply. Rotating power interruptions have been initiated to maintain stability of the electric grid,’ the Independent System Operator announced shortly before 6pm.
Despite residents being networked, swamped in twitter, facebook, mobile phones, tablets and spam they were not able to be notified:
Residents were unable to be notified due to the emergency announcement, leaving thousands of vulnerable people suddenly without air-conditioning in the midst of a severe heatwave.
Californians were being asked to not use major appliances between 3pm and 10pm and to turn off unnecessary lights. (For every 300 LED’s they turn off, someone will be able to run an air conditioner.) They should also close the drapes and sit in the dark.
Imagine if it was actually hot in LA?
h.t Richard Ilfeld who says :
“A heat wave, and lots of people at homes using air conditioning, and a renewable energy mandate = rolling blackouts.
“Due to high electricity demand, California imports more electricity than any other state, primarily wind and hydroelectric power from states in the Pacific Northwest (via Path 15 and Path 66) and nuclear, coal-, and natural gas-fired production from the desert Southwest via Path 46.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_California
California doesn’t want to generate electricity from coal and nuclear, so they buy power from states which use coal and nuclear. 🙂
560
Along the Oregon/Washington border the wind quit on Friday. Water, the one Nuke Plant (Columbia Generating Station), and small thermal and coal continue, with water being the big one.
Bonneville Power Administration
This chart updates every five minutes.
Here are the Lat/Long for the northern start of the Pacific DC Intertie, Path 65, not mentioned by Don B.
45.596501°, -121.117367°
(using Google Earth Pro) Zoom to see.
Path 65 is a Direct Current line, thus DC.
You may encounter the name “Celilo” if you investigate. Celilo Falls was a major fishing spot for Natives until flooded by The Dalles Dam.
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Oh! Two years ago I did a guest post on WUWT about this OR/WA area that sends power to CA.
When the wind doesn’t blow
220
Greens do ‘do’ water. Water means dams.
60
Wind often quits during heat waves, when they are caused by massive high pressure systems, there being no pressure gradient. It takes 33 mph for full power and you get nothing at 10 mph, so it does not have to be no wind, just low wind.
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California rolling blackouts and importing electrity made from coal and nuclear has to be hugely hypocritical. No hard feelings but hope they fry . . .
GeoffW
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California has been exporting its dirty business for years and is proud of the results. Good Blue collar jobs have been eliminated over the last 40 years while it raised its eco consciousness leaving opportunity in low paid service jobs. The next 5 days will be interesting as demand goes up during the work week.. 97 is forecast for Seattle 100’s for the Willamette Valley in Oregon so there may not be much Columbia River power to draw on.
80
Central Washington State is going for 100°F (~38°C) today, Sunday.
Check the chart I linked to above for BPA balancing of the various electric sources.
Wind is zilch, zip, nothing.
The Mighty Columbia rolls on. Listen: Woody Guthrie, 1941
40
They are not Black-outs!
They are controlled ‘Load Shedding’ to protect the electricity supply grid from a serious Uncontrolled Blackout.
Load shedding can be adjusted on the fly, uncontrolled Blackouts may take days to restart the system.
Now got wash your mouth out for telling the truth!
/sarc off
40
It is very sad for the residents, I do feel for them.
The politicians running amuck for everything else except the health of their own infrastructure and generating laws and restrictions that making the old energy power is now illegal.
Going “Green” was a Disasterous Experiment.
240
California….appears to be modern world version of the biblical philistines….
So far we have seen blackouts….bubonic plague….and all kinds of modern uncleanness, which masquerades as “progressiveness”….
Reaping foolishness, instead of wisdom.
241
The residents get what they vote for. If you vote for people who are going to shut down baseload and replace it with unreliable renewable energy, you get expensive and unreliable electricity and blackouts. Simple.
240
Only the Western Democracies are mad enough to destroy themselves chasing this climate madness.
That, of course, was always the idea.
140
Even worse than being a bad experiment, it’s based solely on fake science that’s so obviously broken it should be an embarrassment to any scientist who accepts such tripe as ‘settled’.
90
When will the rioting start?
10
Chiefio on this
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/07/28/w-o-o-d-27-july-2020/#comment-132146
Take home message
“So that just leaves gas turbines as our native dipatchable power. We don’t have much. Greens want it torn down so trying to build more is right out.
Oh, and consider the profitability of a large capital investment you get to run part of the day a couple of months a year…”
(My bold)
200
See, as some of the commenters on this site have been inferring from some time, the rest of the world can learn from South Australia.
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Firstly, the rest of the world has NOT learned from SA.
Secondly, even the politicians in SA haven’t learnt. The minister for electricity is talking of getting 78% of electricity from renewables. Since renewables work (let’s be generous) about half the time, that means more blackouts interspersed with gluts of unwanted electricity. The “solution” is to spend 1300 million to dump that excess somewhere else, so the wind farmers can get the subsidies.
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A situation which can only be rectified by eliminating the RET legislation; Australia has no way back from continuing economic catastrophe until then.
151
The Federal RET is already met. The subsidies are now in rapid decline LGC 2020 now at $34.75/MWh and 2021 at $15.60/MWh. Avoiding electricity Bill in the last federal election eliminated the prospect of a higher RET for the immediate future.
The only way subsidies will be boosted is if the RET is increased. Victoria has its own solar rebate system but that comes from general revenue; not through electricity bills – at least not directly.
There is still the potential for more investment in weather dependent generation as the country goes into post-COVID investment. Snowy 2 and the EnergyConnect SA-NSW link will add to electricity bills and both encourage/support further private investment in intermittent generation. In a couple of years when Liddell closes, NSW consumers will be asking why their electricity bills had a sudden increase.
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RickWill:
The “renewables” scammers are rapidly destroying their own profits. As the amount of variable electricity increases so do the number of RET certificates, but there will be a lesser number of reliable output that the retailers have to cover by buying RET certificates. More certificates and less demand means a price drop. That put pressure on the scammers to raise the price of renewables so they can make a profit. Forget the nonsense about them being the cheapest, check the reports on the Hepburn Spa (virtue signalling) wind farm; they are losing money on the electricity they sell, but make an overall profit thanks to the sale of the RET certificates. The lower the price of certificate the lower their income, until eventually they are losing money (unless the fairy godmother delivers a big rise in the price of electricity), and the cost of maintenance will be increasing as those turbines age.
The other problem is that they are crowding the market; already in SA wind farms are being turned off by the AEMO (in rotation) when the wind blows strongly because SA alone cannot absorb all the generation, resulting in their Load Factor dropping over 10% from just over 30% to 27%. EnergyConnect SA-NSW link is meant to get around this bottleneck so when the wind blows they don’t have to bid so low to get on the list of those selected. That means a price rise of electricity in SA without any protection against anothe big blackout. To up-date the old saying Those whom the gods wish to destroy are made into politicians.
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Graeme No.3
South Australia also has significant problems with roof-top solar which, on a sunny day, is pushing the voltage up to the LV limit of 253 volts. There is a suggestion that the network operator may either prevent new PV solar exporting to the grid or even charge the consumer to export power. In either case the economics for installing rooftop solar will be difficult to justify.
60
That is why they need greater access to the NSW market. NSW currently has relatively low level of weather dependent generation. The EnergyConnect link can open that market up to SA generators. It means SA generators are no longer curtailed and makes it possible for SA to claim 100% “renewable” generation.
EnergyConnect turns NSW into a 800MW battery of infinite capacity for the use of SA weather dependent generators. Combined with the 640MW battery that is Victoria, means SA will never run into demand constraints for its generators but could still run into price constraints after Liddell closes.
30
Hope this gets into the right position.
@Revo:
All home solar arrays are supposed to have a limit (usually 255V) at which point they are supposed to shut down. In a place with lots of solar panels this should happen quite often in summer and I know that it happens with my unit (I’m in the middle of 7 houses with solar, all with more capacity than mine).
The real problem is that there is no way the grid managers can shut down household solar. Their output results in a supposed drop in demand during sunny periods and a sudden spike in demand when the sky gets cloudy or the sun starts setting. Handling that sudden increase in demand is difficult (you can’t start up a wind turbine). They have to (by direction) run a minimum of conventional (mostly diesel) generation so with the (apparent) reduction in demand the remainder can (might be) filled by the output from wind turbines. Should they be generating anywhere near 25% or more of their supposed capacity the surplus is sent via the interconnector to Victoria until it reaches capacity.
Because there is more and more solar and wind turbines being installed that capacity limits the output of wind turbines; currently they are losing about 10% of their possible output due to (ordered) shutdowns. That is why they want another interconnector to NSW. Whether NSW will benefit very much considering the length of transmission is doubtful. And of course the wind scammers want smeone else to pay for their ‘essential’ connection.
@RickWill
And some Premier in NSW is babbling about a great big renewables centre near Dubbo.
40
The politicians and public at large may not have but the grid engineers have.
Ever since the 2016 blackout, grid operators all over the world have been far more willing than before this to inflict rolling blackouts on large urban grid sections in order to prevent total collapse. But due to the finger pointing by the renewables lobbies and media complicity when inadequate thermal generation capacity is breached and then some of these fall offline (as well as the renewable generators that caused the initial shortfall), the politicians and public at large still remain clueless.
40
Ted
They’re being good scientists – they want replication of results by experiment
(/s)
00
No doubt that is what they will get, replicated failures.
10
I love the way a system built on renewables works. The only time it will be useless is when you need it most. It’s fortunate that the world has examples such as California and South Australia to remind people of the insanity of what is going on.
Even if you believe in dangerous global warming RENEWABLES IS NOT THE ANSWER.
Time to scrap all renewables and replace with baseload. Too many people will die., not just from those who don’t die in heatwaves or cold spells but from the diversion of resources saved to endeavours that really save lives.
230
Just build more wind and solar subsidy farms…
And don’t forget “renewables” are now so cheap that they’re putting coal, gas and nuclear plant out of business.
In fact, the renewable electricity is so cheap it’s not even worth metering…
Now, please excuse me, I have to feed my unicorn.
322
David, what do you feed a unicorn? If it’s all the BS that comes out of California’s democrat party dominated government, you’re going to have one very fat unicorn.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unicorn_in_the_Garden#/media/File:Unicorninthegarden.jpg
Roses.
20
Actually Renewable Energy and Unicorns have a lot in common, they’re both fictional things that have mythical powers…..
140
David might have the vittles for his unicorns worked out a bit differently from my recipes, but when I had a small group of them, they flourished on moonbeams generously seasoned with pixie dust. You can easily tell if you’re giving them too much pixie dust — they become a lot gassy.
20
Can someone please remind me why we need “renewable” wind and solar again even if it were actually true that the world was “dangerously” warming?
132
Because the Greens can’t stand to see all that ‘free’ energy going to waste.
10
It doesn’t matter about the eye-watering of the cost, and the even larger National Debt it engenders, the energy is still free and the Planet is being saved.
20
Just something about “destroying the planet to” in there?
10
But here in good old While nameplate value is actually 1.6 X current demand, wind is doing virtually nothing.m Will someone please convince our politicians just how useless these things are.
60
Done – to my local member (Sharkie) plus a link to the California blackout.
Response – crickets
40
Sharkie is a closet greenie, I am in her electorate too, send an email and get shot down every time with non scientific platitudes.
20
Today’s example
Go to the “Today’s energy production by source” graph at
https://anero.id/energy
Tick “Total” and untick all but “Wind”, “Solar”, “Rooftop Solar” and “Water”
The white space between the top of the coloured lines and the black line is the power that has to be found if all fossil derived electricity was banished right now.
Days like right now (07:42 am) renewable energy is more a pimple on a pumpkin.
30
….good old South Australia…..
50
Wind in SA oiutput currently 2.85% of capacity.
80
Ha! Waiting for 5% capacity.
00
Ararat in Vic is at -0.8% – ie drawing power from the grid.
All windmills in Vic are currently delivering 108 MW from nameplate 2774 MW.
10
If wind or solar plant were properly costed in terms of genuine economic value, what would be its value?
As it is intermittent, unreliable and very expensive and no economically rational decision could support the purchase of such power I think in a free market it has a value of zero.
Or probably less than zero because it uses valuable land, causes visual and infrasound pollution (windmills) and you have to pay a lot of money to get rid of it and restore the landscape.
212
The value can be determined by taking the saving in dispatchable plant costs (predominantly reduced fuel offset somewhat by higher maintenance cost) from the costs to build, operate and maintain the weather dependent generators. The result is a negative number; so the value is actually negative; not zero. Quite obvious when you compare electricity charges now with a decade ago in Australia.
151
Obviously the end result will be that in Spain, where intermittent suppliers (wind & solar) were charged a Grid Disruption Charge.
Apparently sent a number of producers bankrupt.
(NOTE: we aren’t hearing anything recently about ‘solar with heat storage for 24 hour supply’. Except the bit about Trump recovering some of the ‘loan’ made by Obama to the Crescent Dunes fiasco).
110
Yeah, and hasn’t Concentrating Solar (Solar Thermal) fallen off the face of the Earth.
Tony.
110
I think it was the birds flying through the path of the beam and falling out of the sky that did it in. Instantly cooking birds in flight was just too much of a PR nightmare, plus the technology didn’t even work because they couldn’t reliably contain the highly corrosive molten salt.
50
I hear Kentucky fried chicken were sponsoring the solar thermal devices
40
No, they weren’t. They only offered to dispose of the carcasses for a modest fee, as long as the operators collected them …
20
Solar fried chicken. Quite a novel concept.
10
It is the wind’s fault. Renewables are perfect, they do not cause any pollution in their manufacturing, operation or decommissioning, nor do they cause harm to bats and raptors, or migratory birds. And they enhance every vista they are a part of. That said, I am going to help David Maddison feed his unicorn.
210
How about you and David collaborate on a text book for the study of modern monetary management?
Suggested title “Wackonomics”?
Chiefio might also help
60
Have to say, everytime I see a wind turbine connected to the grid, I contemplate getting my blasting ticket. I could easily improve the view over Lake George when I drive to Canberra.
70
Those who support wind farms hate birds.
They are bird killing machines.
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2019/09/wind-energy-and-the-extinction-of-eagles/
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A well researched article, the blades attract every eagle in the vicinity in order to eradicate them.
14
#12, David, is there an equivalent for cats?
32
Ah, the old house cat canard. How many raptors and bats die by the claws of tabby? House cats kill birds, that is nature, so let’s invent new artificial ways to kill more of them!!
Apologies if sarcasm was your intent.
40
Excuse me for pointing out that the emperor is wearing no clothes, but with all those unemployed people at home, surely the power demands of industry would be greatly diminished to the point that the whole exercise would be, at worst, a nil sum equation, no?
20
Australia has avoided rolling blackouts. Australia has load management.
56
haha
130
Load management
The taxpayer, having paid subsidies for electricity generating plant that use so-called renewables
that generate income for promoters but not usable and reliable electricity, now pays subsidies to electricity users for not using electricity. Problem solved, when no electricity is available, pay off the disappointed consumer.
The modern marvel of renewable electricity generation (or not) is linked to modern monetary policy whereby taxpayers (and voters to follow) are redundant. Sufficient money is generated by increasing computer ‘generated’ debt whereby the virtual lenders of mega sums of money use the same advanced science as the generators of renewable electricity. So much progress. In the old days all we had were rabbits pulled from empty hats!
20
So in Democrat California where they have Black-outs(Load management by any other name) the people who live in the Hottest part who need the Air conditioning on are where the black-outs (Sorry Load Management)occurs.
Democrat (Oops democracy) at work.
30
Related articles from WUWT:
Rolling Blackouts in California? Who could have guessed?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/15/rolling-blackouts-in-california-who-could-have-guessed/
In CAISO Emergency Break Glass
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/15/in-caiso-emergency-break-glass/
40
I like to play golf. I live on the central California coast so our summer temperatures are always lower than the San Joaquin Valley’s. I didn’t pay attention to the forecast for Friday (yesterday in the US) and as a result I traveled to Hanford, California (in the approximate center of the San Joaquin Valley) and played 18 holes of golf. Even with carts, I almost quit after 9 holes. I forget, but every once in a while I’m reminded of how debilitating temperatures in the 100s (Fahrenheit) are. When I returned to my home the temperature was in the low 80s and it was still uncomfortable. A pox on any government that for whatever deliberate reason bounds the electrical supply so that people either can’t run their air conditioners or must accommodate rolling blackouts. But in the large scheme of things, the governmental pox for rolling blackouts is minor compared to the myriad other poxes I wish on the California left-wing dominated government.
161
No need to wait till 2030 for weather forecasts to determine if there is going to be a blackout , it’s been a feature here for a few years .
00
Ah yes, California, home of (now) just the one remaining nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon at San Luis Obispo, and this one plant delivers between 7 and 8% of ALL of California’s total power requirements.
It has 2 large turbine generators, each a little more than 1100MW for a total Nameplate of 2256MW.
From January 1st to April 30th just gone, this one plant delivered its power at a Capacity Factor of 99%.
It has a lifetime Capacity Factor of 88%, and that’s three times the CF for wind power.
Wind power here in Australia has a total Nameplate of 7728MW, (Diablo Canyon X 3.02)
Diablo Canyon delivers more power in an average year than EVERY wind plant in Australia combined.
This big Nuke is scheduled to close in 2024. It will be Forty years old ….. and will have been in operation twice as long as any wind plant in Australia hopes for at best case scenario, still delivering at close to 100% of its total Nameplate.
We here in Australia missed the boat on nuclear power generation.
Tony.
310
In about 1980 I went for a car drive on the “Highway to Nowhere”. The highway went past the Naval College at Jervis Bay and ended at Murray’s Beach on the south coast of Jervis Bay. There was a tall wire fence surrounding some site works and a sign, declaring that the site was intended as Australia’s first Nuclear Power Station.
They built the road, but that was as far as the project got. It was cancelled by the McMahon government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jervis_Bay_Nuclear_Power_Plant
110
there was a documentary called “Fortress Australia” made in 2001 about this. It was interesting, and until then, I didn’t think there had been any concrete efforts made to ‘go nuclear’ in Australia (showing my age, or ignorance, or both?). I couldn’t seem to find it on YouTube, unfortunately, but it can be purchased.
While looking for it, I found this discussion, moderated by ABC. I had to laugh when they introduced one of the speakers by their seating position on the panel – “…on the far left, Barry Brook…, a leading environmental scientist…”. I haven’t watched it all, but am not expecting the pro-nuclear person to get a fair crack of the whip as it is ABC Canberra… but you never know…
30
I once drove a long way to see that site. I didn’t see a wire fence though. There is a levelled sit’s and some concrete. Very sad. Today, Australia remains committed to self-destruction due to the Lib-Labs and Greens.
51
Site not sit’s, stupid spell checker…
01
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jervis_Bay_Nuclear_Power_Plant
01
There is an article here but with a typical Left wing slant. It was to be a civilian nuclear plant but could produce decent quantities of plutonium in case Australia wanted to produce nuclear weapons. There was no secret about that, despite the alarm from Their ABC.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11371296
31
Worth reading on nuclear power;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia
10
Do you know how the cost of power in California compares with other US states? Or where I can find it.
00
TedM,
here’s the Table you are looking for, at the EIA database site:
Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector
Note that California has the most expensive power on Continental U.S. except for New England. Why those (smaller) States in the North East (New England) are more expensive is because nearly all their power is imported from other States.
Take the exchange rate into account, and power costs for that most expensive State of California are around the same as we pay here in Oz per KiloWattHour.
Look how cheap it is in some of those Western and Mountain States.
Also, note the difference in cost for the three sectors of consumption, Residential, Commerce, and Industry. Thats’ because they are not equal consumers. The average Commerce consumer is Residential X (around) 12, and the average Industry consumer is Residential X (around) 150.
Tony.
40
There is a simple solution to the rolling blackouts, in a smart grid each consumer can be turned on or off remotely, register all those who vote Democrat or greens or in Australia Labor, greens and when electricity demand exceeds supply turn off those people. These are the people who voted for all this so called renewable energy, they should be the ones to suffer the consequences of their stupidity, the rest of us can get on with our lives.
150
Sounds a good idea.
But more likely a change of government won’t show signs of learning – it will just ramp up retalliation
20
Install solar on your home, install big battery, get the system set up so the house can run off grid if the main grid goes dark. Job done. That way when your neighbours are chasing the greenies and lefties down the road with torches and pitchforks ( metaphorically speaking….er…. ), you can sit back and watch it all play out.
10
And true democrat OriginalSteve will loan you the money for the installation at 0% interest.
10
Any flavour of government in South Australia will GIVE you money for the battery:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-offers-up-to-6000-grants-for-home-battery-installations-49440/
Loans are sooo 2010. With loans there is the problem of getting the money back. Giving away the money avoids that difficult challenge.
20
OS there is a small problem with your self sufficiency battery system.
There you are all cosy the power is out but you can sit back and watch it all happen, BUT
The power is out so no phone service.
The Mob wielding torches and throwing Molotov cocktails is marching down the street to the source of light, warmth and comfort.
YOUR street!
Who you going to call?
40
They’re going to need a bigger battery.
lol
40
Musk will give you a battery powered by renewables at no extra charge…….
31
Yes but if its charged by tenewables…um…
20
Or with no extra charge?!
10
Simple solution. All those with solar panels should be shutdown selectively as they failed to provide backup.
30
There is an easy way to get the message home to the centres of greenie enclaves
Those that preach they are running on 100% renewables
This includes city of Sydney Melbourne and and Canberra
Only supply them with the equivalent power generated by renewables
When there is not enough, black them out
Keep this up until the message hits home.
110
You could do this with an advertising campaign set up to advise people in those areas that
“If you believe you are using renewable power you are now in a blackout”
And when RE came back on.
Would need money but I doubt the media accountants would knock back another payer.
20
I am optimistic that the warmists will finally understand their position with rolling and continual blackouts. No electricity is a great destroyer of idealism.
51
I think you’re way to optimistic. The BLM riots prove that the Left are perfectly content with a Third World lifestyle. They would burn library books as firewood without question.
91
Idealism has been dead for years. Sacramento, the capital of California, somehow missed being attached to the PG&E grid for primary
energy and has its own reliable dispatch power generation. Who woulda thunk it, the gubbenors take care of themselves first.
70
Upeate:
California Suffers 2nd Day of Blackouts as Wind, Solar Power Falter
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/16/california-suffers-2-days-of-blackouts-as-wind-solar-power-falter/
30
Oops, “Upeate” = “Update”
00
Ric
Is that what’s known as a trifecta?
20
“Is that what’s known as a trifecta?”
Yes!
10
It is all in the reporting. The far-right perspective from Breitbart:
The other view from not so right Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-15/california-calls-for-rolling-blackouts-for-first-time-since-2001
Even this lacks the panache of true political correctness. Well chosen words would be more like:
Extreme heat wave forces Californian energy supplier to implement load management for the first time since 2001.
This is how similar events are reported by their ABC in Australia.
It is important to emphasise the warm weather using terms such as “extreme heat”. and never use terms like rolling blackouts; with its racial implications. Load Management is much more PC terminology than the racially inspired rolling blackouts.
41
“It is all in the reporting.”
Or in the lack of reporting; the statement about the loss of 470-megawatt power plant and the loss of nearly 1,000 megawatts of wind power comes directly from a statement by the California Independent Systems Operator.
As an aside, according to Mike Shellenberger, the loss of the 470-megawatt power plant was caused by insufficient Natural Gas to keep the plant running.
60
An interesting article related to four natural gas fired powered plants in California dated DEC. 12, 2019:
California faces a crossroads on the path to 100% clean energy
Some interesting quotes:
So the California Public Utilities Commission saw the blackouts coming, they just didn’t expect them until 2021.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2019-12-12/california-clean-energy-gas-plants
40
“cloud cover over the desert”
You can only laugh. The sun is only up half a day and then you get clouds! From the biggest greenhouse gas by far. Water, which also stops energy even reaching the planet. Really how much better would the planet be without water? And global warming produces more evaporation which causes more clouds which causes Global Cooling and loss of solar power. And CO2 does not even get a mention.
71
And Joe Biden is going to move the whole country to wind and solar? Why?
61
There are reports that say that 470Mw Gas powered generator went off line because it ran out of Gas!
20
A shame there’s no wind for sale. California could afford more wind. Maybe they can import come Chinese wind to go with the Chinese windmills?
31
Articles are always emphasizing the bad news.
The good news is that with sea level rise, by 2030 Californians won’t have to travel as far to the beach to cool off.
90
Its my melancholy duty to inform you that sea levels have stopped rising and are set to fall over the coming decade.
70
Is this the result of CV19 stopping aeroplanes?
It it the result of all those wind generators and solar panels?
This is the most depressing news I have read in a long while. It means I will never own beach front property. It puts me in a mind to chase Tim Flannery for the pain and suffering he has caused me in giving me false hope that I would one day own beach front property. The land I purchased is near the top of a steep grade 30m above current sea level and just a short walk to land only 10m above sea level. I have lived in hope that all those houses down in the flats would be inundated and I would have the Bay within a short walk. Sea level rise anywhere in the range 10 to 25m would give me beach frontage or close to it. Flannery promised me that would be likely in my lifetime. How could such an expert be so wrong!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1mKxUSC0aA
80
And living in a climate condemned beach suburb in Melbourne, my investment in Venetian gondalas has come to nothing. I also had placed my trust in science expert Tim Flannery and the IPCC. A lousy vertical six metres between me and my money making venture. ABC science expert Robyn WIlliams (also a Tom Jones impersonator) promised me I would be able to sell beach front property and rent my gondalas by now.
40
And for those who live in Melbourne, the 1890 pumping station which turned the Lagoon area of Port Melbourne into real estate has never stopped pumping. Amsterdam on the Bay. Reclaimed land. It should have been the first to go under.
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It’s a long white single story building on Esplanade West, one house off Rouse street. Even the locals do not know it is there. It has rain detectors which trigger serious pumping. The area used to be under water from there to Kerferd road when it rained and the lagoon was real. The coal from Newcastle used to be landed at the Lagoon pier before we discovered brown coal in Victoria and in fact while Victoria was still New South Wales.
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Have to agree with much of what is said here about how the over-reliance on renewables is such a big mistake. However, one has to understand it’s just a small part of a much bigger game plan by the left. Katarina Jovanović sends a warning to America and the rest of the West. She lived the horrors of Socialism and sees what is happening in the West so clearly. I suspect she is on the ball as to what is happening in the US and with Trump in the big picture sense. I suspect though her warnings will be ignored. My conclusion; civil war is coming in the US. The only question is which side will win? The debate over the wider use of renewables will be just one of the many battles that will be won or lost as a result.
A Message From a Non-American American Patriot
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‘My conclusion; civil war is coming in the US.’
Democracies have the potential to fall into disarray, but a complete breakdown in the US seems unlikely.
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I wish you were right but history says otherwise.
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Katarina made the point her own country had a similar attitude but when they finally realised what was happening it was too late to stop the collapse. Let’s hope the Americans are somewhat more astute. The outcome of the election will be a great litmus test of that.
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Admittedly the oldest continuous democracy is going through a bumpy patch, but its not a failed state.
‘Until very recently, this idea was extraordinary, unthinkable to all but the most radical critics. But, the US is increasingly performing poorly on key predictors of state failure: ethnic and class conflict, democratic and institutional backsliding, and other socioeconomic indicators including healthcare and inequality.’ Guardian
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That’s how the fall of any civilisation begins. It starts from within in a small way and the cancer spreads slowly. The issue is for the people to recognise the decay early enough and take the necessary steps to halt the decay. Only time will tell if it’s different this time around. If it is it will be a first.
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Free health care for all would be a good start and at the same time stop the sale of guns, and introduce a gun buyback scheme.
I can’t see any of that happening, so we may be witnessing the decline of American supremacy, but they are still good to go on space exploration.
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the second negative ABC news item on solar in a month, things must be bad when even the ABC are chipping away at the scam….https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-17/solar-powerlines-already-over-voltage-limits-unsw-study-finds/12534332
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I would hardly call that a negative for rooftop solar. It clearly blames the operators of the poles and wires for poor voltage control – the clear message is that they need to get their ect together so solar owners can pump out lunchtime power unrestricted. If the operators don’t then they will be fined.
Don’t have any doubts where the ABC sits. There is no balance in their view. They are rabid greenies. This is the a trailer for their latest spueworthy production:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4MHiNnTUvs
The promo line is particularly speeworthy:
I have great difficulty seeing any factual content.
Remember that Australian taxpayers provide the funding for this tripe.
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AEMO has expressed concerns about the challenges in integrating more intermittent supplies into the national grid. Its findings include:
If the recommended actions are taken to address the regional and NEM-wide challenges identified, the NEM could be operated securely with up to 75% instantaneous penetration of wind and solar.
If, however, the recommended actions are not taken, the identified operational limits will constrain the maximum instantaneous penetration of wind and solar to between 50% and 60% in the NEM.
There are a multitude of actions recommended, to be finalised by the end of 2020.
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Did the report go on to state – All these recommendations will take zero money to implement and result in a sh-load of savings for consumers.
I bet there was a disclaimer on the second page of the report that aims to avoid AEMO taking responsibility for the drivel contained within the report.
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In a market based system, where is the incentive to hold reserve capacity?
Why does a system with around 30% of solar and wind in the mix not have such an insurance?
Therefore, who is the incompetent?
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Alice in Wonderland is alive and well.
Look there is all that free energy out there Sun and Wind, let’s harness it.
Oh the sun does not shine all day and the wind is fickle so lets install some reserve capacity a nice large battery.
Oops there is snow on the solar panels and ice on the wind turbine blades and the battery is flat.
Lets build a coal fired generator plant.
/Sarc off
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Look! There is all that wonderful free energy in coal in the ground. Lots and lots of carbon sequestrated, ready for us to use to boost the CO2 levels in the atmosphere and increase our forestry and food supplies.
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It’s as if it was a gift from Gaia. Old plant matter, nothing more. And who are we to refuse? Gaia needs the CO2 for life. Greenspeak. As if talking to druids.
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A market based system would not have a RET and there would be no artificial cap or floor in the price. As far as I know, there is no market based system for pricing electricity in the entire world. Every supply system has some form of government manipulation of important price signals outside orderly market controls.
Within the NEM there is a payment for FCAS that does provide some incentive for reserve capacity but that does not provide sufficient incentive through that market to ensure reserve capacity under some summer conditions There is also special orders from AEMO whereby certain generators are ordered to stay online despite the price being lower than they have nominated. They (predominantly SA gas plants) get compensated for that. As more weather dependent generation gets added, the state government will have to step up and buy more diesel generators as has already occurred in SA. The return is marginal so most funding out of general revenue rather than electricity bills.
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We are talking about California, but you agree with me, the market is a failure
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[Duplicate]
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Ireland has a solution. They are importing 50 million tons of sand from Saudi Arabia. When they get it, they’re going to drill for their own oil.
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Id read somewhere silica could be a new fuel source….think if all those lovely big useless deserts we could mine for fuel.
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Slithers, that is a given,
Knowing that, why was not insurance in the form of reserve capacity?
Or are principally interested in cheap shots?
Same for Annie
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Reserve capacity is in the form of pumped hydro.
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Both California an Australia already have pumped hydro…jut not enough to effect real back up for critical situations. They are basicly “peaking” plants. (Their original intention)
Even the wonderos Snowy 2 will only have a 2.0GW generating capacity which would not replace much of current coal capacity ( or wind, or solar),.. if needed.
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But of course there are teething problems.
‘The operating options possible for Shoalhaven and, even more, Wivenhoe, are constrained by the limited capacity of their respective upper level reservoirs. Neither scheme would be able to store energy in quantities to make a material contribution to balancing supply with demand over more prolonged periods than a few hours, such as will be required during periods of prolonged cloudy or windless weather.
‘By contrast, Snowy Hydro has mainly been using Talbingo by pumping on some days and generating on others.’ Reneweconomy
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Peter Fitzroy,
In a market-based system the principal aim of the participants is to make money. If they don’t make money, they can no longer participate. The only measure of “incompetence” in such a system is the failure to make money.
The National Energy “Market” is skewed by the fact that extremely lucrative subsidies, subsidies that are not at all subject to market pressure, are being paid to the owners of intermittent renewables, participants who are subject to no rules whatsoever in relation to the provision of what you call “reserve capacity”.
Those owners of generation assets that are able to provide reserve capacity are, increasingly, being squeezed out of the market by the subsidised generators, thus facing bankruptcy. I’d suggest, for example, that this is the reason that AGL is pursuing the idea of closing the Liddell power station, replacing it with a great big battery, and turning its then-defunct generators into “synchronous condensers”, the latter being totally unnecessary where they are but no doubt offering “feel goods” to the commentators. By running batteries AGL can collect on those subsidies, and to be seen to be providing some “reserve capacity”. How AGL proposes to charge the batteries is another question, but when you are in a “market” you have to find ways to make money.
If there is no monetary incentive to provide sufficient reserves, then who is going to provide them?
Perhaps you might like to answer that question.
Now, Peter Fitzroy, on what is very much a related matter to this post, I suggested that you provide a detailed critique of Anton Lang’s paper, published here on 6 August last. The link is:
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/wind-power-failure-100-times-a-year-we-get-a-500mw-outage . My comment is #27.
If you remember, you asked a similar set of questions as above. I suggested then that you provide the reasoning behind those, otherwise totally unsubstantiated, questions of yours. If you remember, your criticisms of Anton’s paper were:
Would have been nice if the details included contracted power, which in the real world, and according to AEMO covers the longer ones.
Would have been nice if the details included comparison to other states like WA or to other countries like the USA where this effect is not seen.
Would have been nice if the details included the activity on the spot market, where you would see that coal is underbidding on the short periods.
Would have been nice if the details included the response of wind and coal to changing load.
You may recall that I gave you a deadline, and that deadline is Thursday, 20 August 2020.
How is your report coming along, Mr Fitzroy? I am most interested in seeing it.
Do understand that if you fail to provide it, your credibility becomes questionable.
Paul Miskelly
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Sorry, for a few hours the post at the top was replaced with the one on antibodies that I’m finishing now. It will be posted separately soon.
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And Governor Newsom recently CANCELLED new gas generation plants. With no plans at all on how to replace the lost power.
This from the guy who shut down everybody else but his winery remained open….
No brains.
When I lived in the US the Operations Director (its a big company, you would know the name if I told you) said to me it was company policy NOT to have any manufacturing in California due to a hostile govt and high costs. Far cheaper to locate production in nearby states and rail or truck it in. What with more and more goods being trucked in, and power being sent in one wonders what will be left.
I love Yosemite and Lake Tahoe, but everything else about California was awful. Shops were far more expensive than the Mid West where I lived.
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This is what we get when our politicians are never accountable for what they do to us and impose on us.
With the massive restrictions and laws enacted, it takes years to get any large project approved.
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New world temperature record:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53788018
If you erase all the ones you think are ‘impossible’!
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And the more energy you use, the hotter it will get.
The average surface power output of California due to human energy consumption is 0.63 W/m2. This increases the average surface temperature of the entire state by about 0.28 °C compared to pre-industrial times. Of course LA and the Bay Area will be even hotter.
Still, it’s not as bad as Texas, or Pennsylvania (0.5 °C), or England (0.7 °C) or Belgium (1.0 °C).
See
https://climatescienceinvestigations.blogspot.com/2020/06/14-surface-heating.html
and
https://climatescienceinvestigations.blogspot.com/2020/07/28-lateral-thought-1-suburban-heating.html
And don’t think nuclear power will save you. This is down to basic thermodynamics, heat and entropy. It has got nothing to do with CO2. And of course, the hotter it gets, the more power people will use for air conditioning etc.
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Unless, of course, there are other factors you have not considered ?…
Such as , the hotter something gets, the more heat it loses by radiation .!
EG. The Sun is constantly generating massive heaat internally by Nuclear reactions,… but we know it is actually cooling overall due to its Radiation losses.
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Which other factors?
TRUE. And conversely, the more heat it absorbs from radiation the hotter it will get.
My point is that all the energy used or generated by mankind will end up as heat because all energy ends up as heat and entropy in the end. That is the basis of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. Energy cannot just disappear. This energy must heat up the lower atmosphere and surface of the Earth in exactly the same way as incident radiation from the Sun does.
According to climate scientists, a radiative forcing due to AGW (i.e. CO2) of 2.25 W/m2 will raise the surface temperature by 1 °C. My point is that so will any other increase in surface radiation density of 2.25 W/m2. So if humans add 2.25 W/m2 to the radiation that is being absorbed at the surface (which in many places they do), they will raise the surface temperature by 1 °C.
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More Updates:
California Gov. Gavin Newsom: Time to ‘Sober Up’ About Green Energy’s Flaws
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/17/california-gov-gavin-newsom-time-to-sober-up-about-green-renewable-energy-flaws/
Nolte: Blackouts Force Newsom to Admit Green Energy Falls Short
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/17/nolte-blackouts-force-newsom-to-admit-green-energy-falls-short/
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Hi Jo
I saw today in the news that California has a shortfall of 4,400MW in its power generation capacity. That’s what, 2 big atomic power plants or a few big coal fired generators. People need to understand that if you keep voting for greenwashed politicians, of the left or right, this is what you get.
We should also remember that power utilities in California have gotten into the habit of cutting power at certain times in summer to prevent wildfires being blamed on them. A mix of government green policies and internal company pro green managers has resulted in a reduction in the amount of clearing of vegetation around power lines. Result is that every time you get a hot windy day, normal Californian summer, they wet themselves that the power line might spark a fire. I think it works out cheaper for them to forgo revenue from paying customers than to pay the big fines and damages bills the courts hit them with.
California, how to turn one of the worlds largest industrial economies into a basket case in less than 30 years. No wounder a lot of people and businesses are heading for Texas.
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What I find amazing is that virtually all power grids worldwide (not just California) have “just enough” capacity with no planning for a healthy reserve, say 20% or 30% above peak demand in case of major failures etc. and for anticipated growth of demand as the economy grows. China seems to be the only exception to this with hundreds of coal fired plants under construction as part of a long term plan.
To have “just enough” is courting disaster and shows no foresight, especially when presiding over a transformation to green energy with proven shortcomings.
Most of today’s politicians in the west will have a lot to answer for on this issue as the California experience is repeated in many, many places over the next few years.
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WUWT has three new threads up on the rolling blackout situation in California:
CAISO President: California Power Grid teetering close to the edge of collapse
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/18/operators-fighting-with-politicians-to-keep-grid-from-collapse/
Green California Has the Nation’s Worst Power Grid
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/18/green-california-has-the-nations-worst-power-grid/
The dark side of California – the sunshine state
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/18/the-dark-side-of-california-the-sunshine-state/
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