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Cheap ways to starve a virus: Masks reduce spread by 70%, Distance by 80%

One good thing about Coronavirus is that people are suddenly paying attention to all the cheap easy ways to slow viruses. Hopefully we will get a bit better at preventing other respiratory infections too. 

As I’ve mentioned before, masks stop as much as 75% of influenza, and now we know the number is similar with Coronavirus. If any drug was this effective, it would be hailed as a Gamechanging Breakthrough (!).

Indeed, just yesterday Anthony Fauci said he’d settle for 70%, 75% effective vaccine, but masks are here already. And we don’t have to wear them forever, just til we starve the virus, set up border checks, and get the cases to zero. Then we wait for a long term solution. 2020 is going to be the year of the mask.

With Coronavirus cases ramping up again all over the world, people like Mike Pence, and Australia’s Health Minister are talking about them. If we add Vitamin D at 5c a dose (which can reduce the spread of influenza by 40%) perhaps some states could avoid a repeat mass lockdown?

Given the cost in deaths and dollars of the spread of this virus, it would be cheaper to give out free masks, free glasses and a years supply of Vitamin D for whole nations than to lockdown for one week. Even if a lockdown is necessary, masks and social distancing would shorten it. What’s not to like?

As with all counter-virus measures, there are no guarantees, but masks protect both the wearer and protect those around them. In regions with free-range viruses, the sooner masks and distancing are started, the better.

 

 Metastudy shows masks and distance helps

A review study pooled 172 studies with 25,697 participants. They looked at whether distancing or masks reduce the spread of Coronavirus, or SARS or MERS. Most were in healthcare settings, unfortunately none were randomized.

Remarkably, surgical masks reduced the odds of getting infected from 17% down to 3%. N95 “respirator” masks were even more effective. The lower grade surgical masks reduced the odds by 78%, but the N95 masks reduced that to 95%. Distancing was also useful. Even being more than 1 meter apart reduced the odds from 12.8% down to 2.6%.

Eye protection may also prevent 60% of infections.

Masks, distancing, eye protection, effectiveness, covid-19

Best available evidence supports physical distancing and wearing face masks

Medical News Today

The authors found good evidence that both face masks and eye masks significantly reduced transmission of the virus for health care workers and people working in the community, such as care home workers.

The odds of developing an infection with a coronavirus were reduced by 78% when wearing any mask, compared with the odds of infection when not wearing a mask. When using masks that conform to the N95 standard, this figure increased to 96%.

According to co-lead study author Dr. Holger Schünemann, who, like Dr. Chu, works at McMaster University, in Ontario, Canada, “Although the direct evidence is limited, the use of masks in the community provides protection, and possibly N95 or similar respirators worn by healthcare workers suggest greater protection than other face masks.”

 Some of the error bars are wide, but the message is consistent. Masks = lower spread.

People who are not trained won’t find them as useful. (So let’s train people).

Chu, Masks, Coronavirus.

We are so lucky Coronavirus is not measles. Even I am surprised that a 1 meter distance was useful.

If you really want to avoid it a three meter distance is probably much better.

The authors conclude that there is good evidence that maintaining a minimum distance of 1 meter, or about 3.3 feet, from other people is likely to have a significant effect on reducing the spread of the virus.

Across 38 studies that included information about distancing, infection rates overall were reduced to 2.6% when maintaining a distance of more than 1 meter from a person with the infection. By comparison, among studies in which distancing was less than 1 meter, the infection rate was 12.8%.

Furthermore, the authors found evidence that increasing the distance to 2 meters was likely to have an even greater effect.

 In the graph below distancing helps reduce the spread.

Masks, Effectiveness, Graph, Lancet, Coronavirua, metastudy, review

Review | Click to enlarge

Eye protection may prevent 60% of infections, hard to say:

Thirteen studies (across all three viruses, including 3,713 participants) focusing on eye protection found that face shields, goggles, and glasses were associated with lower risk of infection, compared with no eye covering (risk of infection or transmission when wearing eye protection was 6% vs 16% when not wearing eye protection). The authors note that the certainty of the evidence for eye coverings is low [1].

Still no non-randomized study, nor big study outside the hospital setting?

Amazing what we don’t know. Here we are with 10 million cases, and half a million deaths, and one hundred years of influenza, and yet we still don’t have top notch, mass randomized and solid studies.

That said, spare a thought for researchers — just yesterday Medpage discussed why so many single point studies in coronavirus had failed – they barely got time to raise funds and start enrolling patients when the wave moved to another hospital.

Handy things to know about masks:

 

REFERENCE

Chu et al (2020) Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis, www.thelancet.com Vol 395 June 27, 2020, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31142-9 

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Rating: 7.9/10 (40 votes cast)
Cheap ways to starve a virus: Masks reduce spread by 70%, Distance by 80%, 7.9 out of 10 based on 40 ratings

141 comments to Cheap ways to starve a virus: Masks reduce spread by 70%, Distance by 80%

  • #
    Stuart Lynne

    Don’t look at infection as a boolean, true or false, value.

    The size of the inoculum determines the degree of infection. A small dose may do little (other than possibly providing some future immunity, that is effectively what vaccines aim for.)

    A very large dose may lead to a fast infection that spreads quickly.

    With of course many levels in between minimal and maximal infections.

    Masks and distancing help to reduce the number of virus particles that you might receive.

    At best eliminating them all, but even if some get through it will reduce the number and therefore possibly initiate a less aggressive infection that is more easily coped with.

    180

    • #
      R.B.

      The real advantage is you are spraying less into the air if you are infected. I guess you need to present it as protecting the wearer to get people to do it.

      Most early infections were in hospitals and retirement homes where masks were worn by working staff who eventually caught it, so it’s not like a vaccine.

      82

      • #
        Tony

        Yes, by and large there are many entry points of the virus into your body. It could be directly into your nose, eyes or mouth. It could also be from a surface, or your skin which you then rub into your eye or nose. Ultimately, it is hard to prevent getting infected. However, the virus particles predominantly come out of your mask and nose. If everyone wears one, many droplets/particles will get caught in the mesh or, at least have lower velocity and fall to the ground faster. There is then less virus for other people to rub into their noses and eyes.

        Ultimately, wearing a mask reduces the risk to other people.

        Realistically, we cannot stop all infections, but there are good studies on influenza where volunteers were infected with varying numbers of viral particles. Those infected with only 10,000 particles often wouldn’t get sick and wouldn’t shed virus themselves, but often developed small immune responses. Those infected with 10,000,000 would all get sick, shed lots of virus and have a strong immune response. I think it is a fair assumption that other viruses act similarly, so if masks can stop you getting 10 million particles and only a few thousand instead, you may become infected, but less of a risk of shedding and spreading it further to others.

        110

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        Then there’s the type of mask.

        I was sent for a test and given a mask. Immediately I put it on it fogged my glasses. So it wasn’t filtering a lot on exhaling. When I got home I had a closer look and it had a wire in the top edge which can be shaped to reduce that problem. But clearly there will be some masks much better than others. I have been watching the masks on the news for the ones I will want to get.

        I don’t believe this virus can be put back in the lab. I haven’t felt threatened yet, but sooner or later I expect to have to tackle this problem head on. Masks will be needed then.

        10

        • #
          peter

          The “wire” in the top edge, if present, of ANY mask HAS to be shaped to fit your nose if you want a reasonable face-fit and filtration. If you don’t do that and I’ve seen plenty of face-pictures where the mask-wearer hasn’t done that, then there will be considerable air-leakage around the top half edge of the mask. The fogging of your glasses does not mean filtration was failing. With theatre-masks, exhaled air moves out through all of the filter fabric, including over your upper face where the humid exhaled air can condense moisture onto cold surfaces such as eye-glasses. Industrial respirators (eg P2 masks) have an exhaust valve where the exhaled air is channelled out directly.

          10

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Thanks Jo for looking out for us!

    Mandatory face masks are already being put into law in the Southern Ontario, Canada cities.
    Kingston, Ontario was first to implement a $5,000 fine. Toronto and others want this too in a weeks time to be bi-law enforcement.

    410

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      This Pandemic has absolutely crushed the retail business in a city like Toronto,Ontario,Canada with the lockdown closing all the office buildings and the city never saving for a rainy day. Thousands of Airbnb closed along with bars, restaurants and hotel/motels and most will never re-open. Still more Condos coming on line and no immigration as well.
      This now leaves the city the only option left is to get massive revenue from fines. There are 50 new automated cameras along with many new parking restrictions and the new bi-laws with hefty fines from this Pandemic enforcement revenue.
      Not a city I would visit any time soon.

      141

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Time for compulsory masks in all of Melbourne in my opinion.
      There has been an appalling lack of informed medical leadership in Victoria.
      Danny & his mates have stuffed it.

      922

      • #
        yarpos

        mmmm yes, anything less than issuing the edicts of Bill is an appalling lck of medical informed indeed

        123

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Well, prosecuting the organizers of the Leftist rally that appeared to ( conveniently ) restart the nightmare would be a good start.

        Its almost like they wanted it to kick off again so they could play “Lockdown”……

        Great for killing economies and destroying the middle class …..the stated aim of communists….

        172

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          OS Gradually the facts are emerging about why this second wave has happened in Victoria.
          Are some of the new wave of infections associated with the mass protest of 3 weeks ago ?
          Yes – about 5 of them. Ummmmm ?

          Much more important was the breakdown in the quarantine process in the central city hotels. The Vic Dpt of Health hired low paid, casual private security guards for the job instead of ADF & police as happened in NSW, Qld. etc. And these private security guards were poorly trained. So inevitably a couple of them contracted Covid 19 from passengers in quarantine and then took it home to family & friends.

          Another failure was Vic Health allowing incoming overseas travellers to not have the test twice before being released from quarantine. Supposedly 30% of quarantined passengers did not get tested at all. And we know that some people are infectious beyond the 14 day period. So Victoria had people being released from quarantine who were infected – either pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic. No wonder there are lots of new infections being found with no known path of transmission.

          And of course there is the big problem that Danny eased the lockdown just in time for the end of month long religious fast and it’s festivities with lots of devotees getting together in private homes and then getting infected.

          So all in all, an all round stuff up by Danny and his Labor party mates. And as more of the facts get ‘smuggled’ out of Vic Health no doubt we will get more detailed information to fill in this big picture.

          If you live in Melbourne and are vulnerable to this virus, it might be worthwhile wearing a mask.

          1312

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            People who engaged in the rallies would be slow to submit to testing. So maybe 80% of any infection from the rallies would not show up until the second round of the virus, which should show the people they infected.

            20

    • #
      Jojodogfacedboy

      A nightclub is charged with failure to comply with the emergency order with having over 300 people and faces a 10 million dollar fine.
      New normal?
      Certainly tell businesses that Canada is totally unfriendly to trying to make a buck and it will cost you when these orders can come into effect at any time.

      11

  • #

    Does ‘eye protection’ include ordinary spectacles or do we need something tight fitting such as a ski mask or scuba googles?

    The item about face masks makes a big assumption and that is the items are put on correctly in the first place, not fiddled with during use and changed as and when needed.

    From casual observation the items are put on in a fairly random fashion and people are continually adjusting them or pulling them down. Can’t comment on the third element

    71

  • #
    thingadonta

    I hate wearing masks, but hate the flu even worse. I got the flu from a gym (I know this because I didn’t go anywhere else) and it’s wrecked my bronchial tubes. I read that the worst strains (eg H1N1) attack the bronchial tubes and then the lungs, which is what causes death. You don’t even know it’s down there until green flem starts coming up. My strain got halfway and the damage to my bronchial tubes is likely forever, I get severe coughs whenever it get a slight cold now. I can see how once it gets in the lungs……

    50

  • #
    tom0mason

    Yet another (IMO) useful site for a good perspective about this Wuhu virus …
    https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

    It converts a lot of useful information into easily read graphics.

    32

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    >> It makes sense that a cover of some sorts would help prevent spread and has been known for years.

    In the 1918 flu pandemic, not wearing a mask was illegal in some parts of America.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html

    >> But mask protocol requires every time it is touched it needs to be replaced.
    Watching masked folk anywhere sees the mask protocol 100% ignored, so, its effectiveness is severely questionable, minimal at most.
    (Still, better than nothing, granted)

    >> But, with all we now know, why do our local/state governments continue with this, followed by more draconian measures?
    It’s almost like they want to prolong the misery …

    “It’s not coincidental that two weeks after demonstrations happen here in Miami-Dade County, a lot by young people, that we’ve had this spike.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06/29/HHS-Miami-leaders-blame-COVID-19-surge-on-irresponsible-behavior/3991593409308/

    ‘No evidence to link Victoria’s 19 new cases to Black Lives Matter protests’ amid State of Emergency
    https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-extends-state-of-emergency-as-19-covid19-cases-recorded/1c7df432-f719-4409-9ea2-9a77983626b9?ocid=Social-9News

    “Not only did the demonstrations spread the disease themselves, authorities’ toleration — and even encouragement of and participation in them — convinced people that the whole social-distancing thing was unnecessary, and maybe even a fraud.

    We crashed the economy based on a model from the Imperial College.
    All other models were ignored, even when the modeling had predicted the experience in other countries.
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489415-nobel-laureate-predicts-us-will-experience

    Voices not calling for extreme response measures were silenced.”
    https://pjmedia.com/columns/stacey-lennox/2020/06/20/what-if-i-trust-science-and-dont-trust-dr-fauci-n551584

    Jonova has done an excellent job of informing us without offering bias, just facts.
    Many thanks are needed.
    Tip the chocolate jar!

    122

  • #
    Revo

    Although not directly related to use of masks, Swedish research on possible natural immunity sounds interesting: https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown

    40

  • #
    ImranCan

    Completely agree that masks will reduce transmission significantly, especially in crowded indoor environments like public transport. I mean,just look at Japan. But I have to question your objective ? Eliminate the virus ? You can’t eliminate this. And even if you could, you cannot remain isolated forever. Well I guess you could, but really – who wants to live in an oxygen tent, wearing a mask ?

    123

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      I suggest the objective is to reduce the chance/severity of infection to the wearer or people nearby, by reducing the distance the virus travels, slowing down through the cloth barrier.
      So far I’m not wearing one when I go into town (in my own car) as the social distancing is working quite well and I don’t go into crowded areas, but I will if I need to get on to a train or bus. As Jo points out, a 70% reduction of risk is worth the effort.
      We’ve opted to have 3 masks, washable, one to wear today, one washed and drying tomorrow, and one ready for use the day after. Wash carefully with soapy water. Hang out to dry in the sun if possible.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      52

      • #

        Imran, that’s the great thing. No virus where we live means no one living in an oxygen tent.

        Zero virus = freedom.

        We’re not planning to be isolated til the end of time, just til biotech gets a better solution, or the virus learns to be better behaved.

        57

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Evening Jo,
          Overall I agree with you – eliminate the virus if at all possible. My wording above was intended to specifically apply to the masks which alone cannot do so. But at 70% effective they can go a fair way along the path.
          Cheers

          10

        • #
          ImranCan

          My point was that I don’t think this is a realistic objective. Its just not possible. I mean you just have to look at the cases now growing again in Australia – and these are just the test results. My fear for Australia is that having gone through the hugely damaging lockdown, you will now have to do it again, and even if that is successful then remain in isolation until a vaccine is found to work. With all of the negative economic and societal issues this will cause. A classic good money after bad problem. And at the same time the rest of the world will just be learning to live with it.

          31

        • #
          7887

          So Jo no more overseas trips for any Australian.

          I would not call that freedom. I have close relatives living in another country who I will never be able to visit again.

          It doesn’t matter what bio tech comes up with the virus will be around for ever just like the flu, so unless the boarders are closed permanently the virus will be always be a chance of coming back.

          20

  • #
    TIP

    I think social distancing is important and enough.

    The masks would need to be p2 or n95 – anything less in the hands of the public would be at best no use and worse, detrimental.

    I would predict – the wearing of the mask would lead the public to lower their vigilance on social distancing.

    As the studies show, with any confidence, social distancing is far superior to masks (both mask and goggles effectiveness was qualified with “low certainty of evidence”)

    So…i am a no on the masks and big big push on a renewed social distance and hygiene marketing campaign – a total blitzing.

    72

    • #
      Annie

      Just try social distancing in our local supermarket! They have tried hard to do the right thing but on Fridays and Saturdays we are invaded by hoardes from Melbourne. With the school holiday it’s all week. So I wear a mask…the only person in our local town or in Seymour to do so lately; I intend to continue wearing one! If the hoardes pour in without even bothering to use the hand sanitiser on entry I need to protect myself. My mask is always a clean, washed one, hung out in the sun and wind (if present!) or on a clean towel on a hot radiator if not. I put a dollop of eucalyptus oil on it before donning the mask, with sanitised hands.
      As to adjusting it; the wretched things slide up over the bottom of my eye so have to be adjusted, not ideal, but hand cleaning again regularly helps.

      63

    • #
      Annie

      And the hygeine blitz hasn’t worked with the selfish. There is information everywhere and it’s just ignored. If we end up with the bug in what has been a completely clear area I’ll blame the selfish invaders from the city.

      42

      • #
        Annie

        Hygiene! Proof read Annie :)

        20

      • #
        TIP

        thats part of my point

        If we cant educate hygiene and social distancing – what hope for the proper wearing and use of the proper masks…….my guess zereo.

        Worse i think the improper use of masks will coincide with less social distancing and less hygiene.

        Stick with the behavior we KNOW has the best affect and get it right.

        14

        • #
          Annie

          My point was that there was a blitz on hygiene info and it is being ignored by far too many so I intend to continue with my mask and hand sanitiser.

          31

          • #

            TIP read the study linked in my post about a 75% reduction in Influenza. The reduction outside the medical sector in private homes was the same regardless of N95 / P2 or surgical mask.

            People will probably wear a surgical mask at home much more readily than an N95.

            If people at home don’t get as much protection as people in the healthcare sector (and they probably don’t), then the solution surely is not to toss away the masks, but to train people.

            Anything is surely cheaper than a lockdown?

            74

            • #
              TIP

              Hey Jo

              I did read it before i commented.

              To me the whole study looks like it had a pre-determined outcome – they want masks to succeed and were all too willing to make allowances to achieve this.

              I will pay more attention to the warning labels printed on the box by the manufacturer – they offer no protection for covid or similar viruses.

              P2 & N95….a different story

              But, further, with what i have been watching and reading out of Germany and Sweden over the last few days – I dont think any of this matters

              51

  • #
    PeterS

    The way I see it is the Green socialists are using the pandemic crisis, which is real as distinct from the fake climate change alarm, to orchestrate a destruction of the West. The climate change scam didn’t work fast enough and well enough for them so now they have switched to using the pandemic as a cover to instigate their draconian measures to control the population more quickly than they could ever do via the fake climate change scare. The Victorian leader is a prime example. I can excuse people like PM Morrison for unwittingly falling for the emissions reduction nonsense if that’s what happened but not if he is pretending to believe in it then I won’t excuse him. When it comes to the pandemic crisis they are all working in overdrive, willingly or not, to instigate a destruction of the West by means never possible before though excessive lockdowns and the like. It’s so pathetic so see many even here have fallen for it. Yes, by all means do the right thing and wash hands, maintain safe distancing, etc. but lockdowns are excessive and only fuel the agenda to bring down the West. Good luck Victoria.

    232

    • #

      PeterS, the best way to avoid a lockdown was through closing the borders. The only alternative to a lockdown (apart from significant deaths, disability and economic loss) is with masks, Vitamin D, handwashing, AND closed borders.

      Perhaps you can help me understand why many people who used to advocate for strong borders before the pandemic are not doing so now? Why are conservatives missing the best opportunity they have had for 100 years to get strong sovereign borders and to build that wall?

      Why are they allowing the Green Socialist “Open Border” plan to bring in deadly viruses and score free hits on the UK and USA and their conservative leaders? Why gift the Green Socialists and Big Pharma with no resistance to Open Borders which guarantees a long running pandemic scare when they could have removed the scare as most states in Australia (and many other countries) have done?

      Most Green Socialists are not trying to actively destroy the West, they don’t think that far in advance. They are merely trying to “feel good” today, impress their friends tomorrow, or get rich through gravy-train cushy jobs. That they attack the pillars of our civilization is mere collateral damage to most of them that they can’t see coming.

      108

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        It is very curious that here in Australia
        There are no more boat people trying to get here.
        Why ?
        Well Indonesia & Malaysia & Thailand are all turning boats of ‘refugees’ back
        Because they do not want foreigners bringing the Covid 19 disease
        And because they are already overwhelmed by the pandemic.
        The same thing is happening in Europe.
        Sovereign Borders rules nowadays.
        Except in the States where the ‘pandemic denialists’
        Want to open the borders to keep the economy going.
        Very queer things happen in the USA.

        32

        • #
          PeterW

          Immigrants only win if they get to stay. COVID wins even if the carrier leaves again.

          Pretending that a policy of deporting illegal immigrants after they get here , thereby ensuring that the large fees paid to people-smugglers are wasted is the same as keeping randy sailors from spending a night in port on arrival, is ridiculous.

          10

      • #
        PeterS

        International border control is a different issue. I was referring to local lockdowns given the current panic in Victoria. I agree our borders must be kept closed until the world has a good grip on the issues. As long as we can treat the local cases adequately, there is no need for local lockdowns, such as state, postcode and suburban closures. All they do now is kill off businesses one by one and increases the number of suicides.

        If people think we need to keep applying local lockdowns until we have eliminated the virus completely then they will most likely have to wait for many years if not forever. That would be economic suicide leading to many more deaths due to many causes other than due to the virus.

        If by some chance the virus gets out of control and we suffer more deaths at an increasing and alarming rate then we have to decide at what point do we instigate heavy local closures again. The federal government will have to “print” many more hundreds of billions of dollars to help people pay their bills, feed themselves, etc.. So far this appears unlikely to be necessary. Let’s hope it stays that way.

        40

      • #
        TedM

        Agree with most of that Jo, but am equally certain that those “driving” the green movement know exactly what they are doing.

        31

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          It’s not a Green thing.
          That is “Pandemic Denier” nonsense.
          In fact it’s a Conspiracy by ‘Pandemic Deniers”

          07

        • #
          PeterW

          Note how Bill resorts to the Climate Panic Playbook as soon as it suits him.

          It’s dishonest when the Warmanists do it and it’s dishonest when he does it.

          10

      • #
        Damon

        The point is that the lethality of the virus has been wildly exaggerated, both by the government and the media. Sure, some people will get sick, some sicker than others. Some will die. How is any of this different to the seasonal flu?

        81

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          The primordial good question Damon.

          How is any of this different to the seasonal flu?

          Reminds me slightly of old days when there were a small number proposing a master race, in this case, a perfect race of laboratory pure/grade distancing carried out in an open air laboratory grade environment, complete with a population walking around in laboratory attire. Really?

          Very worried about the side effects of continuing down the peril road of an artificial forever lock down protocol. :(

          Sweden still has a life.

          And further, with respect to one of Jo’s earlier comments, …

          Perhaps you can help me understand why many people who used to advocate for strong borders before the pandemic are not doing so now?

          I suspect the answer is that the very nature of a virus is to get in early, undetected. As i have tirelessly pointed out to Jo, the most obvious reason is that by the time a border is closed, a virus has been in and out, pause, and back into a country again, and perhaps back out again, again, before anyone should even waste their time exterminating minutiae by closing borders. “the cat is out of the bag and so it is best to first wait and see i suspect. Then if people start dropping like flies, there is a problem, however, this is not the case as far as i know in my non expert virology opinion, if we still are allowed to have a view or an opinion about something..

          61

          • #

            ES says: Sweden still has a life.

            There are 5,333 Swedes who would disagree with you except they’re dead.

            ES says: “a virus has been in and out, pause, and back into a country again, and perhaps back out again, again, before anyone should even waste their time exterminating minutiae by closing borders.”

            Evidence for this = “nothing much”. Good luck with that theory.

            Evidence that closing borders works = New Zealand, Australia. (and evidence that Open Borders fails = UK Sweden and USA).

            How will you know if people start dropping like flies, if mass graves, shortages of coffins, bodies in freezer trucks, ice rinks, and excess death curves don’t convince you? What evidence would it take…

            27

            • #
              Damon

              Are you seriously claiming that, but for the coronavirus, 5,333 Swedes would still be alive? All of them? LMFAO

              101

              • #
                Andrew McRae

                Not all of them, but probably 40% of them. Via Bing Translate:

                The Swedish corona strategy has been criticised for failing to protect the elderly and the fragile – and recently the death rates in nursing homes have become a burning issue. But Thomas Lindén at the National Board of Health and Welfare has played down the discussion about the death toll and, among other things, said that it is “similar every year”.

                Review shows: 30 percent overmortality

                Using data from the Ratsit search service, we have mapped the mortality rate during some of the most intense corona weeks by comparing with an average for the corresponding period in previous years.

                SVT’s survey shows an over-mortality rate of nearly 30 percent for nursing homes in the whole country. If we look specifically at the Stockholm region, which has been severely affected during the corona pandemic, the excess mortality rate is 100 percent. The statistics say nothing about how many people have died in covid-19, but it gives an indication of where the infection has struck.

                We see around 40 nursing homes around the country that stand out extra much and where mortality has more than doubled – read more here.

                The National Board of Health and Welfare confirms

                When SVT reviews the National Board of Health and Welfare’s own statistics, we see an over-mortality rate of 40 percent during the same period that we have examined. Something the authority is now confirming.

                You have to also consider the isolation conditions that have been set up in hospitals and nursing homes which mean relatives can’t be beside the deathbed in the final hours. How many get anaesthetised for intubation under the delusion they will wake up again. Even for those who “would have died anyway” it’s a very different manner of death.

                Again, all you fatality rate junkies seem to be ignoring the growing evidence of long term health impacts on asymptomatic survivors of Covid19, showing that stopping the spread of the virus is important for more than simply preventing deaths.

                How is this different from seasonal flu? Recovering from normal flu doesn’t usually leave you with long term lung damage. Can’t say the same about Covid19.

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              PeterS

              Jo, that statistic is useless without taking into account many other variables. The jury is still out as to whether lockdowns are of any significant value over the long term. Sure short term it saves lives but the lockdowns can’t remain forever, and when they are relaxed the cases rise. The aggregate number of deaths over say a 2 year period might be very similar regardless. We just do not know for sure. Perhaps in time we will. So at the moment it’s all just guess work since the pandemic hasn’t run its course yet, not even close.

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                C’mon PeterS — I was taking a dig at someone who said something as cliched, undefined and unscientific as “Sweden still has a life”. Clearly you are not applying the same standards…

                As it happens, the jibe is honed — in a normal year 90,000 Swedes die. This year as of June 18 49,500 are dead meaning that 5,000 extra have died. ie Covid.

                Given that Swedes did a 50% lockdown, it’s likely their death rates would have been lower than normal thanks to a reduction in deaths from all other causes. They also haven’t tested enough people or accurately recorded deaths in homes. But it’s also possible in that in the next 6 months we’ll see lower deaths than normal due to the partial ongoing lockdown, the lack of foreign travellers bringing in the flu — as the rest of the world avoids Sweden — and also due to the deaths that would have happened in the second half of the year and which Covid only brought forward by 6 months.

                I bet the tourism sector in Sweden is wishing they’d done a short proper lockdown like Norway instead of an ineffective long lasting 50% version.

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              Environment Skeptic

              Evidence that closing borders works = New Zealand, Australia. (and evidence that Open Borders fails = UK Sweden and USA).

              Neil Ferguson, allegedly a professor of epidemiology at the most prestigious medical establishment in the world sums up the lock-down by having an affair with someone else’s wife.

              From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUfesigqVo8

              Corona, Corona, Corona! – A Booty Call.

              Dominic Frisby Comedy Videos
              23.5K subscribers
              Love in the Time of Corona. Dedicated to Professor Neil Ferguson.

              With Aideen McQueen and Dominic Frisby
              Directed (remotely) by Alex McCarron
              Words by Dominic Frisby
              Music from “Parole, Parole” by Gianni Ferrio, Leo Chiosso and Giancarlo Del Re
              Audio mixed by Wayne McIntyre

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              PeterW

              Jo.

              I’m still an advocate for strong borders. I just accept the reality that borders will probably not do what you want them to, in a cost-effective manner.

              They are a fence, not a magic force-shield.

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                PeterW

                Meanwhile, it has been pointed out that the previous two flu seasons in Northern Europe have been exceptionally mild. Therefore there are an abnormally high number of susceptible elderly patients who would be expected to succumb in the next sever flu season, COVID or not.

                That is the problem with using an average as your basis for comparison, without als reporting how far outside the normal variation the observed results are.

                It’s not science. It’s low-grade advocacy-journalism. Sorry, Jo, but that’s the case.

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        7887

        One advantage of the lockdown has been a 30% reduction in infant mortality under the age of one in the US.

        I wonder why that would be?
        Just could it be the fact that infant vaccinations has dropped by a huge amount as people were too scared to visit the doctor.

        Of course it couldn’t be vaccines are safe and effective……….or are they?

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    Ross

    The description of most these studies being in “health care settings” pretty well sums it up for me. So, it is data from hospitals, nursing homes etc, not data emanating from general public use of face masks. So in reality you cant make statements about general use of facemarks in “non health care settings” based on these studies. Also, in “health care settings” most medical personnel have training to don the masks in the proper manner without contamination. They even get lessons in removing gloves. On average it takes 9 tries before glove removal procedure is achieved. So Joe (or Jill) public have little hope in using masks or gloves in the proper way. Masks may increase your risk of infection, mostly because they are worn inappropriately, and also because mask-wearers fiddle with them, frequently touching their face. There is reported that there is NO scientific evidence that shows that cloth masks will help reduce the spread of COVID-19, according to Lisa Brousseau, ScD, and Margaret Sietsema, Ph.D. (dont have the link). There are also aspects of reduced oxygnenation and increased blood CO2 levels associated with long term use which are worrying. So, I am not convinced. For me its social distancing, stay home if sick, isolate the vulnerable, keep up your vitamin D, dont let lowly paid security personnel working in quarantine hotels go home and mingle with their family in large gatherings.

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      Tony

      There are also aspects of reduced oxygnenation and increased blood CO2 levels associated with long term use which are worrying.

      I think there is very little risk of higher CO2 levels (for most professional masks, perhaps people are making their own thick mask which inhibits airflow). I have worn surgical masks for years at work (as have doctors and nurses during surgery, also people who remove asbestos etc). Breathing during normal activity is fine. The only thing I have noticed is over this pandemic, is wearing a mask during exercise has made me tire out more quickly.

      I do agree that it is hard to properly if masks. It took me three days to properly fit my N95 respirator, and moving around in day to day life tends to dislodge them slightly. I found that putting a second mask over the top tends to help – though makes it harder for people to hear you talking.

      I think the thing is masks (and eye wear etc) are cheap. Training people to use them is a bit more expensive, but a few million dollars of TV advertising etc is peanuts in comparison to the economic costs we are experiencing. So, the costs of using them aren’t very high – especially considering the potential economic upside of getting out of lockdown.

      Even if people use their masks improperly, say they rub virus from their mask into their eye – that just means there is a bunch of virus that person would have otherwise inhaled. Potentially, we could be enhancing our masks with salt or testing say silver nanoparticles and so on. Also, if everyone is wearing a mask, presumably there is little virus that will get stuck on your mask. For the virus that does get on your mask (and subsequently your hands), the risk can be minimized by frequent hand washing.

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        Ross

        There is a WHO report “Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza” – published late 2019. In it is stated ” ten (10) RCT’s (randomised controlled trials) were included in meta- analysis, and there was NO evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory – confirmed influenza”. So who are we to believe Tony?

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          Tony

          Hi Ross,

          Yeah I agree there is not enough good evidence on masks. But in the laboratory (fitted to mannequins) and hospital settings, there seems to be good evidence they work. I think there is enough evidence you could argue either way for/against masks in public. The pro-mask case isn’t slam dunk.

          I think the thing is tho, we have an idea, grounded in science and engineering of how masks should work to reduce exposure. Maybe it is more Bayesian thinking than true RCT science. If people must ride public transport (many minutes or hours per day) or work in close quarters in a meatworks (7-8 hour shifts), why not wear a mask? The costs are quite low, whilst exposure to others is prolonged.

          I think the pro argument is along the lines of wearing a parachute from a crashing plane. Much like a mask, if you aren’t trained or you put it on backwards etc it won’t work, but you aren’t going to argue about the lack of RCTs of parachutes vs no parachutes when the plane is going down.

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            Cost Benefit guys.

            The case for masks in non-health care settings is unproven and uncertain, but at $4b a week for a lockdown in Australia (must be $40b a week in the US) why would any leader wait for the right studies when the risk of mask use is practically zero in comparison to the risk of letting the virus run wild?

            Imagine how different the USA and UK might look now if their leaders had come out in support of mandatory masks from the start?

            How much better would Trumps chances be if the virus wasn’t running out of control and the economy was recovering already like it is in Australia.

            If training is the only problem, then train people. There are so many advantages to teaching the whole nation from preschoolers up — the basics of hygiene — that it’s hard to figure any good reason not to mandate that schools drop some “safe space” or socialist indoctrination and teach kids about viruses, how they spread, how to stop them.

            The advantages of that science lesson to the nation will last a lifetime.

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          Bill In Oz

          Don’t trust the WHO.
          It’s Beijing’s creature.
          Do you trust the CCP ?

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    Mark

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

    “We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

    From Harvard Medical School.

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      … and yet it spreads. See Arizona, Texas, Florida.

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        John

        This reality is borne out by a fascinating data point about positive cases and Hispanic people. As of the week of April 25, according to the CDC, just 12.2% of the cases were among those identified as Hispanic. As of yesterday, 34.4% of all cases were among Hispanics. That is simply astounding. If you peel into some state data, you will find that cases among Hispanics compose 46% in Florida (twice their share of the population), 46% of cases in North Carolina (nearly five times their share of the population), 35% in Tennessee (nearly seven times their share of the population), and 24% of cases in Arkansas (nearly three times their share of the population).

        The only logical answer is that this is merely an illusion of mass testing of meatpacking plants and farm labor camps, where they began testing every worker, most of whom are Hispanic, especially in the southern states. Thus, as we saw with the Arkansas Tyson Foods plants, almost all of them are asymptomatic. Lots of cases; few deaths.

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          Deaths of course, being delayed by two weeks, and if the virus spreads in the young first, then deaths will be delayed a month til they pass it on to their older relatives, and then they die.

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    Rick Kinsman

    Fauci is on record as clearly stating that masks do next to nothing in this situation and there is a great deal of evidence that supports that claim. In the hands of untrained users with cheap, inappropriate types of masks the effect is to actually increase the likelihood of spreading the infection.
    That said, it is time to review the whole scenario.
    The original intention of controls was to flatten the curve so as to not overload the health care system, not to prevent any deaths at all costs. It has been proven that we can do that. So a change of strategy is required that will help get Australia back to work and our health care system back to normal.
    Given that most of the workforce are in little danger of dying from infection, there is no real harm in allowing them to become infected, thus promoting herd immunity. Where we need to concentrate our efforts is in isolating and protecting the most vulnerable, which is far cheaper than generalised lockdowns, and allows the business of business to proceed.
    We can’t keep paying our workforce more to stay at home than they would earn if they went back to work. Already a pattern of systemic, government promoted, dole bludging is starting to develop.
    This has to stop, now!

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      Rick, by the time we isolate people over 60 and everyone under 60 with high blood pressure, obesity, asthma, cancer, arteriosclerosis, allergies, etc half the population will be hiding from this virus.

      That’s deadly for the economy. Half the customers of resturants, churches, gyms, etc not leaving home?

      In the US, even if ten times as many people have had this virus than have been tested, that still leaves 300 million people yet to catch it.

      It could take a year to gain herd immunity, and we are still not sure if herd immunity is even possible.

      Fauci and others stupidly said that masks don’t help to cover their own asses when it was clear that they had failed completely to prepare for a pandemic even though that was their main job. They didn’t want the public to know that masks were useful because they didn’t have enough.

      It also doesn’t help Big Pharma if people beat the virus with a mask instead of waiting in fear for a sacred annual billion dollar vaccine.

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        OriginalSteve

        If hydroxycholoquine works, i see benefit in a managed slow burn through the community so we can stop hiding in our houses, otherwise at current rate we will be a 4th world country soon with no economy and no working tax base to fund our health system …game over.

        Any vacc ine from Gates et al is likely dangerous and RNA based so damaging to our DNA ( they can go jump if they think were being guinea pigs for that ) so…yeah…slow burn best option.

        I also think they are managing the situation, as the openly stated globalist agenda has always been to manoevre people to demand a vaccine solution……

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          Bright Red

          OS “ with no economy and no working tax base to fund our health system …game over.”
          Yep it seems the older demographic that think everybody should be locked down rather than the old and vulnerable have forgotten who pays for their meds, doctors, hospitals and other benefits etc. You would think they would be locking themselves down and encouraging those at low risk to get back to work so they can continue with their tax payer supported benefits. Imagine the death toll amongst the old if the meds supply dried up.

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      • #

        Fauci and others stupidly said that masks don’t help to cover their own asses

        I think you’ve outdone yourself Jo

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        Damon

        I might remind you that if herd immunity is not possible, then a vaccine is useless.

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        PeterS

        It ought to be a given that lockdowns, chemical solutions and masks are not the long term solution unless one is a terrorist and desires to crash the West. Either we get a vaccine soon or we we become immune to the virus while we retain all the preventative measures, such as safe distancing, hand sanitisers, etc., apart from the lockdowns. International borders however remain closed until we get a vaccine and/or cure, or we find a sure way to detect easily and quickly who has the virus so we can screen people as they arrive.

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        • #

          Au contraire PeterS. No virus = Great economy. How do we get no virus? We fight fast and hard, and do it properly.

          Which state is going to rescue its economy faster than any other — the one that did a short sharp effective lockdown and then kept its borders shut. WA.

          Nothing will kill the economy as thoroughly as no lockdown (Brazil) or a half-baked Open Border lockdown (USA) with repeat outbreaks and repeat lockdowns.

          People who hate the economy want to keep this virus hanging around :- )

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            PeterS

            Jo you are talking hypothetically while I’m talking in terms of reality. You are basically suggesting we lockdown everything until the virus is gone completely. Good luck with that. The virus will be around us for a very long time if not forever. Also, there will be other pandemics to come. Anyone who believes otherwise is ignorant of the past.

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              JanEarth

              Peter S

              Well said sir…the next pandemic is due in 5 years give or take a year or two. We have to become better at managing these rather than relying on dark ages techniques as we have done with this cold.

              The real pain associated with this was always going to be mainly economic. As yet this has not hit us but it is on its way. The possibility exists that Sweden may have played their cards well after all but only time will tell.

              This is interesting to say the least and I am fascinated to see how this pans out. The comparison between Sweden and Australia will be an illuminating comparison in 12 months time.

              Take care Peeps.

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                Peter, I’m hardly talking hypothetically when I name states. Can you name a state where the virus is running free and the economy is running as per normal?

                The hypothetic assertion here is that most of the population is as willing to catch a nasty illness as you are and happy to spend their money and eat out at normal levels while it spreads. The economy was going to be hit either way. I still say the economic hit of a short lockdown is smaller than the slow bleed of endless rolling outbreaks and fear.

                JaneEarth, yes, obviously we need to be better prepared for pandemics — get manufacturing back to Australia, stop feeding research money for biotech to Chinese researchers, stop feeding cash to the CCP-WHO, and do the research here in Australia instead. Own some patents ourselves. Build up stocks of masks and medicines here, and train the populace in hygiene. Get our supply chains sorted instead of being dependent on adversaries.

                With or without a pandemic we also need to start testing Vitamin D levels in everyone, especially those with dark skin who are at high risk of deficiency. Thus we might for 10c a day reduce the rates of cancer, asthma, diabetes, etc etc and also have a populace less susceptible to disease.

                We need to be willing to shut those borders fast and hard. If we do that, there’s no need for lockdown, and all countries that do it too can join the safe travel bubble.

                How many billions were wasted because of Brendan-kill-them-Murphy and Fauci and Vallance (UK) all saying “let them fly in”?

                We can also have that discussion on the disadvantages of having a population that speaks 65 different languages and has been divided by cheap political tricks and bullying to the point where there is less compliance, cohesion and community. You know, the advantages of the high-trust society that we were…

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                PeterW

                Jo.

                I’m afraid that you are talking hypotheticals, because we have not yet arrived at a point where either strategy is mature.
                We do not yet know how quickly a population and economy recovers after a “season” of wu-flu. Nor do we know how frequently a population attempting the elimination strategy has to be shut down, or what the economic effects of repeated shutdowns and restricted travel and trade are….. other than that the level of government support being offered for the current shutdown is not affordable.

                Nor have we ever – even in the supposedly ideal conditions for viral spread represented by cruise ships – seen the majority of the population infected.

                Nor have we yet counted the medical cost of lockdown in terms of delayed diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions.

                These things are still in the future, so basing predictions on those assumptions, is very much speculation.

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          Tony

          Common misconception.

          There’s good evidence both SARS viruses kill imune cells. There’s some evidence this virus reduces IFN levels and MHC1 (making T cell responses harder). Basically, the virus induces a degree of immunosuppression.

          With vaccines you dont have that immunosuppression. We also have adjuvants to boost the length of immune responses. These days we have some really good adjuvants like MF59 that can induce good T cell and antibody responses. We can also boost the amount in the dose and number of vaccines.

          There’s actually some precedent for this in vaccinology. The immune response to Hib was limited due to the polysaccharide nature of the bacteria (limited T cell immunity as T cells only ‘see’ protein). So, scientists made a combination protein/polysaccharide vaccine that overcame this problem. Once the T cell response was activated, the T cells helped the B cells form better memory and long lived antibodies.

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          • #

            Tony, I’ve no idea why your informative, polite comment was not more popular. Thankyou from me, and yes, I’m very interested in adjuvants and to see links that expand on that. AlOH always seemed like such bucket chemistry with it’s indiscriminate activation.

            I too have been looking at the immunosuppression by SARS-2 which is like HIV but not the same.

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              peter

              What the hell is AIOH? Love acronyms without definition.

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            • #
              peter

              Well, still no explanation of what AIOH stands for? Well FM, WTF FFS doesn’t anybody bloody know? That’s the trouble with this site. People use acronyms all over the place without any definition. WTF?

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        Tony

        Hi Jo,

        Something like 15% of the population is over 65. That’s nearly 4 million people. Add in the 5% of people who are immunocompromised, 6% who have diabetes. Ok, so that’s 1/3rd of the country. Add in the people who live at the same address… it’s a big chunk of the country that needs to hide away.

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      Annie

      None the less Rick, it is interesting that Taiwan, WITH masks, was the most successful at keeping the numbers of infected/deaths down. That is in a country with a similar population to Australia but vastly smaller area.

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        Bill In Oz

        The problem is Annie is that there is vast real conspiracy
        To try and get us all to believe that this new infectious pandemic disease Is inevitable
        That it does not kill many people
        That it does not actually infect many people
        That lock downs do not work
        That Quarantines do not work
        And that masks do not prevent infection

        Unfortunately a good number of Jo’s regular readers and commentators
        Are by inclination inclined to accept ‘conspiracy’ theories
        And hence are inclined to accept this new theory that the Covid 19 pandemic
        Is a big leftie conspiracy and simply ignore the facts and the evidence.

        I’m glad that Jo has persisted again this nonsense.
        But I doubt that she will ever convince anyone of them change their minds
        Their eyes are fully shut..

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          Rob Kennedy

          For goodness sake forget about Covid 19! Bill and Melinda have a better virus coming. “We’ll have to prepare for the NEXT one, THAT I’ll say will get attention this time.”
          https://twitter.com/wideawqke/status/1277735412664946688
          https://twitter.com/sonsue88/status/1277727530913423361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1277728146444468225%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.barnhardt.biz%2F
          Regarding Covid 19, as different commentators point out, the news reports only talk about “cases” not DEATHS. Why is it so? Because the death rate is still below the annual worldwide death rate from influenza? (And has been falsely inflated by bad reporting and outright murder in places such as New York) Why are we not running out of coffins? Why aren’t gravediggers exhausted from working 24/7? If we had a major disaster again like the bushfires in 2009, (deaths 173) or a plane crash of perhaps several hundred people would a mandated period of mourning with lockdowns, businesses shut, borders closed etc seem to be appropriate?
          Look at the nonsense with “THE TEST.” Is it really a test?
          https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-tests-are-scientifically-meaningless/
          “So to start, it is very remarkable that Kary Mullis himself, the inventor of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technology, did not think alike. His invention got him the Nobel prize in chemistry in 1993.

          Unfortunately, Mullis passed away last year at the age of 74, but there is no doubt that the biochemist regarded the PCR as inappropriate to detect a viral infection.

          The reason is that the intended use of the PCR was, and still is, to apply it as a manufacturing technique, being able to replicate DNA sequences millions and billions of times, and not as a diagnostic tool to detect viruses.

          How declaring virus pandemics based on PCR tests can end in disaster was described by Gina Kolata in her 2007 New York Times article Faith in Quick Test Leads to Epidemic That Wasn’t.”

          OK skeptics, would climate scientists ever lie about the climate? Answer YES /NO
          would medical scientists ever lie about pandemics? Answer YES /NO
          If you don’t believe that both answers could be YES, you you have a problem.

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            PeterW

            BiO has become the Fitz of any thread discussing the WuFlu.

            Ignore evidence that he is wrong.
            Vilify anyone who brings such evidence.
            Demand that everyone else pay the price for his fear.

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      Tony

      Yet he is constantly wearing one these days, clearly, he has updated his views.

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    Clinton

    If there are no community spread cases in all of Australia outside of Victoria for close to a month (NSW being the last and NT being the longest) do we need to wear masks if we live outside of the affected suburbs in Melbourne?
    hard to spread a virus that is not present…

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Well I’m not is SA.
      The virus is present here only in some returned travellers who will not get out until they test negative.
      :-)

      In fact it’s time we outside of Victoria got back to normal life.
      It’s a pity Victoria has to suffer with Danny & his Labor mates in charge for a few more years.

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        OriginalSteve

        Put an 8 foot ring fence around the failed communist stare of victoriastan and leave them to it. I suspect the locals will then kick the lical politburo into line once starved of essentials.

        Dangerous Dan needs to be lawfully removed from office.

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        • #

          Better yet, why not just isolate Melbourne until this is solved properly? Why should the good people of regional Victoria need to be held back? (With apologies to the good people of Melbourne).

          Here in WA I’d be happy to open borders to most of Australia, except — now that QLD is accepting any Victorian willing to lie on a form — I’d have to rule out QLD until we know if that policy worked.

          Likewise, we can’t accept people in NSW to WA because that’s a backdoor route from Victoria.

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          Annie

          Don’t fence those of us in country Victoria. We are not the offenders!

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            Bill In Oz

            I agree Annie. I have friends in East Gippsland where there have been no Covid 19 infections since April.
            Surely Danny Boy can arrange to have police road blocks on the main roads out of Melbourne ?
            The Hume Freeway, The Monash freeway, The Western Freeway, the Mornington freeway and the Freeway to Geelong

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          AndyG55

          There’s a guy in the USofA that likes building fences.

          Perhaps he could help ;-)

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  • #

    If wearing a mask becomes compulsory, I’m not going to die on that hill. I’ll have fun instead. I’ll either wear a crochet mask, or, better still, disposable ones.

    And I’ll change masks in public, so everyone can see me dispose of one mask for another. I’m sure this will trigger a few people, which is the whole point. I am not wearing a reusable mask.

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    OriginalSteve

    Im invokved in equestrian sport and reading the latest “guidelines” its insidious how the corona nonsense has basically like a trojan horse take over of society…which i suspect is part of the aim….gives power freaks like the Victoriastan politburo a tight rein they can pull any tme they want.

    I wonder how many cases are false positives from body or unreliable testing?

    [SNIP. Perhaps if you rephrase that in less aggressive words? could be misinterpreted. - Jo]

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      Tony

      Given there isn’t much evidence of long lasting antibody immunity… perhaps only a few months of protection, there isn’t much of a case for a controlled burn. More likely, the virus could well just cycle through people again and again.

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    • #

      STeve — trust me, even Dan Andrews doesn’t want to do another lockdown. He wants to be MR 93% like Mark McGowan.

      Can people please think carefully about “socialist desires”. Does anyone really believe they want to forced to stay at home cooking dinners instead of using their frequent flyer points and impressing their friends at restaurants?

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        Bill In Oz

        But little Danny is being gradually dragged back to a lock down
        To clean up his government’s earlier policy stuff ups.

        At the moment it’s just 12 suburbs of Melbourne.
        But he gave anyone who wants to avoid the suburban lock down lots of advance notice
        And is right now those folks are moving to somewhere outside those dozen suburbs.
        If Melbournians are really lucky, none of these lock down avoiders are infected.
        But what’s the chances ?

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      Rob Kennedy

      Here is a good article about the PCR test, written by a knowlegeable lady who actually knew Kary Mullis, the inventor of the test. Please read it and then weep.
      https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-the-covid-19-test-meant-to-detect-a-virus/

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        Bill In Oz

        A Hearsay opinion of Kary Mullis by a woman with a very emotional take on this issue.
        Not a good article.
        It belongs in the Womens’ Weekly.
        :-)

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          Bill In Oz

          It also rolls out the view on behalf of dead Kary Mullis
          “Hey, you can’t use my tool, that i invented in 1993
          For any purpose except the one I invented it for.”
          Now that really is smelly brown stuff !

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          • #
            Rob Kennedy

            You obviously didn’t read the article.

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              Bill In Oz

              I read a little beyond this curious statement :”let’s talk about the latest terror bomb detonated by Global Atheist PC Creeps upon your perfectly good, free life as a US citizen in 2020″..

              Ohhhh !
              Yet more USA “Conspiracy” plot junk smelly brown stuff…

              No Thanks..

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    Geoff Sherrington

    Seems possible that the social groups that most need to wear masks are those less likely to agree to masks. This morning on 3AW there were ethnic talkers from lockdown postcodes openly saying they were unlikely to do as Premier Dan asked.
    Also possible that they are emboldened to disobey because look, we got away with no mass fines from rallying for BLM.
    Possible, the other way, that thugs were embolded to loot and burn because wearing masks made them harder for cops to find after the act by using video evidence.
    There are too many possibles.
    Victoria is in a mess. At a bg hospital lobby this morning, I saw and heard an ambulance assistant coughing into the air a couple of times while close to a patient on a gurney. She told me defiantly that she was ok because she had passed a thermal scan. No mask, either.
    Premier Dan seems to have realised there will not be any other term for him and is now fighting like a cornered rat. Refused to advise penalties for 250 unionists gathered at a building site to make sure workers were all unionised. Refusee to discuss whether the big BLM protest helped the spread. Refused to bring in large numbers of ADF experts to enforce rules in hotel quarantined travellers from where many cases have spread. Being true to his ideas of the glorious socialist workers ideals is not optimum for the times. Geoff S

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      Bill In Oz

      Geoff I suspect there are many Victorians waiting for their chance to put the boot in Little Danny’s mob.
      It is a major expensive stuff up
      And an unnecessary one.

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    Kevin a

    Alex Azar United States Secretary of Health and Human Services
    Risk groups are 80 years and over with 3 comorbidity.

    So why shut down no risk groups?
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-russia/index.html

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    UK-Weather Lass

    Without any added context masks represent an additional cheap and effective barrier for SARS-CoV-2 etc to negotiate. Thus, by wearing one, an infected person reduces their risk of infecting someone else, and the uninfected person reduces their risk of becoming infected. Just how great a reduction is impossible to determine without some added context e.g. distance between the two or more parties involved, length of time of proximity to the infected or uninfected other(s), current effectiveness of the worn mask and so on.

    It is to be noted that of the variables that give context to safety the length of time of proximity seems to be the high risk factor especially in enclosed spaces and/or areas of multiple occupation and I cannot see any evidence of that being measured in this analysis of multiple studies. We know transport is a very high risk spread environment from evidence. However, as with all infections, one could argue that each successful spread event needs to be measured against all the unsuccessful events to give context to the success of the virus and whether or not policy decisions made by government or individuals added to or detracted from that success rate. I am unsure that any of the studies analysed in the WHO funded paper quoted determine this. I’d just once again mention the video made by Dr David Price in March when working on the Covid-19 frontline in NYC when he said fifteen minutes is the approximate safe period for proximity to a known infectious person where all other safety measures have been taken.

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    Kevin a

    Do Masks Even Work? Can You Be Forced To Wear One? Dr. Kaufman Weighs In
    Lots of studies show a negative effect of mask wearing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gda9o4FTXrE&t=541s

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    Carl Friis-Hansen

    Joanne makes this comment:

    There are 5,333 Swedes who would disagree with you except they’re dead.

    This is basically the number of people who had SARS-CoV-2 when they died.

    Yesterday I compiled a graph from the official death toll over the first 26 weeks in 2020, compared to the average deaths 2015 to 2019 inclusive.
    Note that these deaths are absolute deaths, independent of the cause of death. All deaths in Sweden are known and registered, there are extremely few unregistered people in Sweden.
    The graph shows a weekly excess death rate of max 120 during the peak.
    We are now down to about normal death rate.

    We mostly keep a moderate social distance. Some people more than others though.
    https://carl-fh.com/images/offsite/sweden-death-week-20200629.pdf

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    Kevin a

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqRL1GXu5DE
    Why you shouldn’t wear a face mask if you’re healthy

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    PierreL.

    Bonjour, Just a little question, what about hands washing? If you add hand washing to the
    equation aren’t you closer to a very good solution ?

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    huemaurice5

    The ‘FFP2′ mask is 100% antivirus. On the other hand, for the eyes (devoid of white blood cells), only closed glasses can prevent the entry of viruses.

    PS: FFP1: anti dust. FFP3: anti toxic gases

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    Kevin a

    U.S. Gains COVID-19 Drug Monopoly for Gilead’s 31,900% Markup
    The U.S. government has bought the entire global supply of Covid-19 drug remdesivir for the next three months.
    Hospitals will be charged $3,200 per treatment for the drug, representing a huge markup of 31,900%.
    To make matters worse, Gilead received public funding for remdesivir’s development and has a history of tax-dodging.
    https://www.ccn.com/u-s-gains-covid-19-drug-monopoly-for-gileads-31900-markup/

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    Well there certainly is conflicting science on masks. This is from a professor at Ottawa U. https://www.dropbox.com/s/w5eojbzj13zbnyd/COVID-19_Rancourt-Masks-dont-work-review-science-re-COVID19-policy.pdf?dl=0 Then you have the study that was used to makesw maskes manditory in serveral US states that has been lambasted and full of errors https://www.city-journal.org/reality-of-wearing-masks . Sorry Jo gotta disagree.

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      John, feel free. But even if one study was terrible, and wrong, and even if a whole nation used that study to wear masks, that isn’t the same as showing that masks are ineffective, or dangerous.

      As I said, the best information we have is inadequate, but it is what it is, and the decisions need to be made today.

      The cost benefit on this one is wildly in favour.

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    Thanks for the reply Jo. My main concerns are the studies within this document https://www.dropbox.com/s/w5eojbzj13zbnyd/COVID-19_Rancourt-Masks-dont-work-review-science-re-COVID19-policy.pdf?dl=0 if you scroll down all the studies are from reputable journals that contradict makes being effective.

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  • #

    Thanks for the reply Jo. My main concerns are the studies within this document https://www.dropbox.com/s/w5eojbzj13zbnyd/COVID-19_Rancourt-Masks-dont-work-review-science-re-COVID19-policy.pdf?dl=0 if you scroll down all the studies are from reputable journals that contradict masks being effective.

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    Hartog van den Berg

    Great how nobody found a difference between indoor and outdoor masking and distancing.

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    Kevin a

    Do Masks Even Work? Can You Be Forced To Wear One? Dr. Kaufman Weighs In
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gda9o4FTXrE&t=541s

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    soxanne

    Is it worth spraying the mask with Lemon juice? Lemon juice contains citric acid which is the active ingredient in N 95 mask’s produced by Glaxo Smith Kline, apparently

    P.S. I’ve sprayed my masks with lemon juice from a bottle and it doesn’t leave a yellow stain.

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    soxanne

    [Duplicate]AD

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