JoNova

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Go on, just eliminate it: Supression is for people who love lockdowns

Scott Morrison says eliminating the virus is not viable, despite most states in Australia effectively managing to do that already. See the chart below. Instead he talks of suppression as if it’s viable to ride an exponential curve with a default position of “moonshot”.

At the start of June, Victoria was getting 20 new cases a week.  In the last three weeks Victoria has added 3,000 cases.

State premiers are being urged to reject an elimination strategy for coronavirus, with Scott Morrison and leading business groups warning the move would double unemployment and wreck the economy.

The Prime Minister, who has conceded the lockdown of Greater Melbourne was necessary given the size of the outbreaks, warned that any pivot to an elimin­ation strategy would double­ unemployment.

Suppression sounds like a management plan but means rolling waves of infection and isolation, with outbreaks of chaos and a constant higher level of fear and avoidance. This does not seem like a jobs creation machine.

Would we prefer one lockdown or three?

1. The hospitalization rate means hospitals will be overwhelmed within weeks (see Victoria). Therefore repeat lockdowns are inevitable.

2. It’s hard to protect the vulnerable when half the population is at risk. Almost one fifth of the Australian population is over 60 years old. One third of Australians have  some form of high blood pressure67% are overweight or obese. Then there are cancer patients, asthmatics, people living with transplants and people with cardiac disease. Even if they all overlap, that’s a lot of people with co-morbities  who won’t be spending much money on travel and restaurants while they hide from the virus. Protecting the vulnerable might be its own economy wrecker.

3. We lose access to hospitals during the waves. How much is it worth living in a community that has access to cancer care, elective surgery, stuff like that? What’s the cost of that burden?

4. The burden on the healthcare profession. Doctors and nurses are getting sick and some are dying from Covid-19, possibly from being exposed to high viral loads and working under pressure or with inadequate PPE. Some are living apart from their families, or in the basement, so they don’t infect loved ones if they bring germs home. Others are wondering if they should retire, and whether it’s fair on their family to keep working.

Suppression is the losers game. One rogue superspreader can infect 100, and suddenly it’s lockdown time again. Living with the virus means the constant threat of a major outbreak and the certainty of morbidity, mortality and lockdowns. It means we risk losing our hospitals for weeks or months on end, we can’t do large events. We can’t visit grandparents, and about half the population needs to hide away, as do those with high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer and transplants.

Eradicating Eliminating* the virus means life as normal except for strong borders and quarantine and lots of testing. People can use hospitals, restaurants, and visit their old folks.

For some reason, Morrison is aiming instead for rolling outbreaks and repeat lockdowns.

Australia was close to eradicating the virus from the nation:

There has been (or was) no community transmission across most of Australia for two to three months. Though that may be about to change as the states open borders just in time to catch the virus from Victoria. If it continues to spread in Sydney, the ACT is a sitting duck even though it might notch up 100 winning days without community spread. But the ACT is only a few hours away from one invisible superspreader from Sydney.

Shame it may unravel in the next week. But it didn’t have to.  It was only inept management in Victoria that put the gains of the first lockdown at risk. The states of Australia paid their dues in the late Indian-summer of Vitamin D days and nearly won the battle. Four states and two territories were as good as done.  Even NSW managed to notch up 20 covid free days in a row, the day before yesterday (that’s over now) . Even Victoria was scoring 4 days of no new community cases in a row, and that was late April.

This is living with the virus in Victoria

In Victoria there are 2,500 active cases of Covid19/CCPflu, and there are 935 cases with no known contact source. There are 122 in hospital, 31 in ICU which includes five people in their 40′s, six in their fifties, and eight in their sixties. Since July 5 there have been nine deaths, which is bound to rise as it lags infections. About two-thirds in the ICU are on ventilators. Currently 150 healthcare workers are infected.

Victorian hospitals are struggling with the load already, and half of all urgent elective surgery is being delayed in public hospitals. About a quarter of urgent elective surgery is being put off even in private hospitals in Melbourne.

Before the pandemic Victoria had 476 ICU beds. Currently there are 1,000 ICU beds available and ready to go for Covid patients.

What happens next in Australia depends a lot on what happens in NSW.

________________________________________________________________

*Eradication supposedly implies world wide reduction. Elimination apparently means local or domestic eradication.

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Rating: 7.5/10 (72 votes cast)
Go on, just eliminate it: Supression is for people who love lockdowns, 7.5 out of 10 based on 72 ratings

325 comments to Go on, just eliminate it: Supression is for people who love lockdowns

  • #
    AZ1971

    Eradicating the virus means life as normal

    The question is, Can the virus effectively be eradicated? As I understand it, the answer is no. Whether or not you test at the border in and out of AU will make no difference to an asymptomatic carrier who gets past all those precautions and reinfects vulnerable populations. And then what? You start all over again. I don’t have high hopes of an effective vaccine, and I don’t trust testing to be the be-all-end-all because of variable seroconversion rates in producing antibodies.

    Yes, we have to live with Covid-19. Life will go on despite it.

    526

    • #

      Presumably as there have been relatively so few deaths the australian economy is operating pretty near normal with some exceptions in the small number of lockdown areas?

      1212

      • #

        AZ1971.
        The question you ask is not related to the post.

        Obviously it’s about eliminating the virus locally, obviously we nearly did it. Obviously we use 2 week quarantine, not just testing. Obviously, living with the virus means dying with the virus for some people.

        Obviously this is temporary. We only need to maintain border for a few years until a vaccine, antiviral or nicer mutant eventuates. The post points out that there are no economic advantages in letting the virus run wild, or trying to manage it, and that anything other than elimination will mean rolling lockdowns, plus deaths.

        But I have updated the post. Thanks for drawing attention to the word “eradicate”. Definitions are hard to find but apparently “Eradicate” means global reduction and eliminate means domestic reduction, which is clearly in context what the topic is here. I’ve corrected the post.

        Obviously, we don’t have to live with Covid if we just get our border control working.

        1214

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          Jo we did almost do it, but Victoria proved that you can’t. You can’t depend on everybody to get it right. You can’t even depend on everybody to cooperate.

          And for all that, where is the value in eradicating it if the rest of the world hasn’t? We can’t survive with locked borders. Our sovereignty can’t.

          I and my wife are right at the peak of the most vulnerable group, but it is not right to shut down the economy just to protect us. There has to be a better way. With three generations in our household I haven’t yet worked out what our protocol should be, and fear that I may soon have to work one out. But we are much better equipped that we were three months ago.

          102

          • #

            Victoria proved nothing at all about Border control except how not to do it.
            We already knew the rules have to be mandatory and that corrupted parties beholden to unions, donors and groupthink were a bad idea, and Victoria just confirmed it.

            We can’t survive with locked borders. Our sovereignty can’t.

            Ted, I’m smiling. Sovereignty can’t survive without borders. Think about it. Will Australia die as a nation if we have a two week quarantine for entrants? C’mon. Get serious.

            61

        • #
          Ted O'Brien.

          [Duplicate]AD

          00

        • #
          AZ1971

          Obviously this is temporary. We only need to maintain border for a few years until a vaccine, antiviral or nicer mutant eventuates.

          Were you being serious? If by “we” you mean “Australia”—and only Australia—then do what you want. But that tactic isn’t going to work in other nations, especially a nation as large, diverse, and critically dependent on the movement of peoples, goods, and services as the U.S. The question is, What cost-benefit value do we put on life that’s saved from Covid-19 (with other comorbidities) when weighed against long-term costs hidden under the guise of loss of employment, loss of savings, alcoholism, drug abuse, homelessness, child and spousal abuse, violent crime, mental health issues, etc.?

          More to the point, vaccines aren’t going to save us. University of California-San Francisco researchers say a vaccine that confers long-term immunity is unlikely, so research is being diverted into effective treatments instead:

          https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/With-coronavirus-antibodies-fading-fast-focus-15414533.php

          Live with the virus. You can’t put the cat back into Pandora’s box (and yes, I know there’s an unintentional double entendre there.)

          60

          • #

            AZ — did not read the post? (I really wish people would before they comment. )

            Obviously, I was discussing Australia. Scott Morrison is our PM. (I assume regular readers know this?)

            But the US could have kept this virus out. The arrogance of keeping infected flight loads of passengers coming in makes no sense from either health or economic or humanitarian reasons, or any reason anyone can think of. Though if I were a Democrat I’d be delighted the right wing fans of Donald Trump have completely stopped caring about Walls and Borders.

            Obviously there would be a few leaks, but mass testing and contact tracing can deal with small leaks. They fail with big numbers. Right now the US should be shutting every state border so that some states could be saved, and so NY etc won’t be reinfected.

            Could the US seal the borders? Imagine, hypothetically, Covid was a new black plague with a 70% death rate. Do you think the most powerful nation on Earth with the largest military and space program could keep it out? Of course they could, it’s just a question of cost. The only discussion point is whether its worth it. Declarations that it’s impossible are just fatalistic lack of ambition and imagination.

            PS: Regular readers who read the posts know that I’ve never suggested that Vaccines were essential, or the best or the only way to solve this. I’m the anti-virals and preventatives girl. 99 posts so far and 100% consistent.

            Stick around, and try reading the posts.

            43

          • #
            ImranCan

            I also didn’t think she was being serious. The sentence about ‘just need to keep the border shut for a few years’. When I read that I thought she was joking, that this is all a big wind up. But I don’t think so. This just shows a total loss of sense of perspective and reality.

            30

      • #
        Tonyb

        For some reason I have got eleven red thumbs for asking a perfectly reasonable question to which I do not know the answer. Can anyone help me with an actual answer? Thanks

        81

        • #
          Geoffrey Williams

          How can anyone say that the Australian economy is operating pretty near normal?
          Where have you been for the past 5 months . .
          GeoffW

          50

    • #
      TIP

      This is so true – New Zealand is living this now and for the foreseeable future – they have cornered themselves in a non-enviable position……perceived “eradication”

      THE ONE lock down was for a time buffer so our states could ready our medical system for the increase in patients – it was NOT to seek eradication

      Remember the – “Flatten the curve” – reduce the spike, the area under the curve remains the same, the time (x axis) simply gets longer.

      Lock downs ALLEVIATE the problem but will not fix it. (Sounds similar to most left policy)

      248

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Kiwis are enjoying normal life.
        You are just plain envious of their success.

        1032

        • #
          farmerbraun

          Not quite Bill. Normally , most of the population is not so broke.
          Normally , we don’t have GDP declining at -16%.

          261

          • #

            TIP, Farmerbraun, — which economies are not being crushed at the moment? The simple argument that NZ has suffered financially is irrelevant when nearly every country shows the same or worse. China’s is recovering fast (allegedly), not that anyone wants their kind of lockdown.

            As for the myth of isolation — See my reply to your repeat comment below.

            More nations would welcome travel to and from NZ than any other nation on Earth. The countries that are isolated are the ones with incompetent rampant infections. See the invites coming to NZ people from the UK, EU, Czech, Japan. Taiwan. Iceland. Denmark (Greenland). NZ could set itself up for wealthy tourists coming for long safe stays over the coming winter. It could be remarkably profitable.

            And NZ is one of the only places on Earth that did aim for Elimination and said so. Professor Baker in NZ was ambitious, spot on, and braver than all the academic swamp cohort worldwide that aimed for less, and acted too late.

            916

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              I agree Jo.

              The high yield tourists of the world would be only too willing to travel to a safe destination that has some of the best food and wine in the world.

              What’s a 14 day quarantine in a five star to them? Just jack up the prices. Issue them and the staff with free HCQ and zinc.

              And, China will still buy its butter, wine and sea-food and all the other clean-green product that it is so good at producing.

              Air New Zealand needs to get cracking.

              The high-rolling target, as a market, is made for NZ at the current moment.

              50

            • #
              farmerbraun

              Jo the fiscal hole, the result of NZ’s failure to close borders in a timely fashion , somewhere around $60 billion and counting, will remain a drag on the Kiwi economy for decades , even with crippling increases in taxation which will drive it further down. There’s only five million of us , and the debt cannot be repaid.
              In the meantime , failing businesses are calling for more subsidy.
              It is beyond the capability of the(absent tourism) remaining 70% of our economy (soil based industry) to fill the hole, and the pollies haven’t stopped digging yet.
              Sometime soon , we will “discover” new cases with no known contacts. Then the community transmission button will be pushed to usher in the new “hard lockdown” that is currently a meme in OZ.

              91

              • #

                farmerbraun, if I only I had been NZ’s PM eh? I could have saved you $60b.

                News July 15th:

                The South Pacific nation last reported a case of community transmission two-and-a-half months ago. It has recorded 22 deaths from nearly 1,200 confirmed cases as of Wednesday.

                23

              • #
                Slithers

                That’s a good election slogan Jo, wonder who will use it come the next election?
                They won’t of course have any proof that they advocated shutting the boarders a lot sooner, in fact they will probably have o[opposed any such action!

                00

              • #
                farmerbraun

                Jo , I reckon that you can say that with LTCF hygiene rigour in early January , cruise ships not given clearance to dock , all airline passengers compulsorily quarantined on arrival , you would have nailed it.
                But preventing the clowns in government from bankrupting the country?
                That’s a big call. :-)

                10

            • #
              Geoff Croker

              Viro tourism is a wet dream. Where do you intend to get the aircraft from? Then there are the airports, most are going to go under.

              The truth is when the Job Keeper payments cease, voters will go hard left to more free money and whomever offers it.

              Its easy to turn the free money on. Its almost impossible to turn it off.

              120

        • #
          ImranCan

          Except for the complete loss of their tourist income.

          10

      • #
        Broadie

        Curve Flattened in April in the US.

        Daily deaths from COVID 19 have been falling since mid April.
        John Cullen explains on Crowdsource the Truth
        At 15 minute mark.

        Get on with your lives, stick your masks in the cupboard (unless you have to perform surgery) and get back to work.

        213

        • #

          Broadie
          So any idea when the Texas daily death rates will get back down to the previous April peak numbers that were about a third of what they are now?
          Be brave. Make a prediction.

          25

          • #
            Broadie

            Thank you for the Opportunity Siliggy.

            I predict people will continue to die in Texas!

            Now to move away from the emotive stuff that appears to be from those who have a silly G G in the horse race.

            John Cullen has highlighted the CDC and WHO appeared to stop reporting Influenza cases and deaths in week 11, this was world wide. He asks why? Was there a phone call?
            Personally, I have been following University of Washington Virology department testing for Covid-19 of those presenting with Flu like symptoms. This has averaged %5.3 to date and I chose these figures as the negative tests are also reported. I could therefore eliminate the scary graph that effectively measured the publicity of COVID-19 and availability of tests.
            Based on these results and being aware of just how much travel occurs each day, a 2019 bug in Wuhan could have potentially been anywhere in the world the day after, I would assume these RNA viruses will continue as part of the annual influenza type infections.
            Brave? No!
            There is one very brave person, a brave family and the ‘We the People’ that support what he is doing. The President of the USA is attempting to subvert the dominant paradigm. He is attempting to return power to the people to manage and take responsibility for their own communities. This is contrary to the Fascists who believe they can use the might of monopolies and massive bureaucracies to save the world.
            The COVID-19 scare has been an ‘in vivo‘ example of just how this big government and its bureaucratic health systems plagued by ambulance chasing lawyers and staffed by compliant drones fails.

            152

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      [SNIP]

      [Bill, this is off topic, anti free speech, and about comment policy. Please don't do this at #1 on any thread. Hijacking on such an important topic? - Jo]

      343

      • #
        Annie

        Going for the cancel culture, eh Bill?

        291

      • #
        Rob Kennedy

        Bill, are you suggesting that Australia has a (-gosh!-) strategy, a , a PLAN.
        That is the most outrageous conspiracy theory I have ever heard of!

        Our leaders are not proactive (everybody knows that). Reactive is their only game plan they have ever known.

        Just to show that I am not biased politically, well not much, the Snowy Mountains Scheme was started by Ben Chifley’s government and the Opposition was dead against it. When Bob Menzies government came to power they dared not discontinue it, as it had captured the imagination and support of the Austalian people (voters, remember)like nothing else. Pretty soon the Liberals “owned it and took credit for it. In this random slice of history Labor was proactive and Liberal reactive. Despite the politics all went well. Haven’t seen much happen since tho’.

        Back to the pandemic, and apologies to Abbott & Costello. Lou Costello: “WHO’s in charge?”
        Bud Abbott: “Yes, you’re right. WHO’s in charge.”
        (I’ll stop now, you know how it would go.)

        Dan Andrews is using the biggest stick he has to threaten the naughty children. STAGE 4 Dan knows that would be catastrophic, but it’s a good thing to wave around and he feels empowered.
        But on Friday some apparatchik from the UN gets on radio and (Prof. Female Academic) and is SERIOUS. Stage 4 now!! Poor Dan.
        Watch the next thrilling episode of “Pandemic”. Will Dan do it? Will the virus magically diminish and get him off the hook?

        160

      • #
        MP

        Settle down Bill the internet is running low on red thumbs.

        140

    • #

      AZ1971
      “The question is, Can the virus effectively be eradicated?”
      There is no question. It has been done in quiet a few counties already and is only hampered by those that don’t. Looking at the numbers it seems like China is one of them. N.Z. with 10M population is looking after 21 sick returning travelers. China with more than 140 times that population has only 12 times the infected and that number is rapidly falling. So the theories that you need to be an island, isolate forever and destroy the economy are all failing as well. Meanwhile the number of “new infections in China is the same today as the number of deaths in Sweden. The place where the herd immunity experiment is still failing after killing 556 out of every million. Elimination or eradication is the fastest solution and the only one that seems to work.

      610

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Elimination or eradication is the fastest solution and the only one that seems to work.

        Or, early treatment with HCQ, Zinc and Azithromycin when you are infected.

        If you have’nt got yourself a supply yet, you need to do so. By whatever means.

        However, that’s no longer easy.

        In Australia, the Morrison Government has shut the legal supply down.

        You now cannot get HCQ on a prescription written by your doctor without authorisation from the government before the ‘script can be written and filled by the pharmacist.

        It’s currently easier to buy ice on a street corner than it is to get a doctor’s prescription for HCQ.

        But don’t fear. The black market will meet the demand.

        170

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          And, if you think that the Morrison Government has spat in your eye over HCQ, then you need to know it’s spat in your other one over Remdesivir.

          It’s approved Remdesivir – but there’s none available.

          And who makes Remdesivir?

          Gilead.

          And who was behind the hit-job VA study on HCQ? You know, the study that demonstrated just how corrupt pseudoscience can be.

          Gilead.

          Is somebody in the Morrison Government on the take from Gilead?

          Now, here’s a nice little vid compring HCQ to Remdesivir:

          https://youtu.be/2OzBl_oegPg

          Wipe your eyes. Hold your breath. Something smells.

          170

        • #

          “Or, early treatment with HCQ, Zinc and Azithromycin when you are infected.”
          Works even better as
          and, early treatment with HCQ, Zinc and Azithromycin when you are infected.

          20

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      This is encouraging…slowly global herd immunity emerging?

      https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-hail-stunning-results-show-180918348.html

      “Some 68 per cent of people who took antibody tests at a clinic in the Corona neighbourhood of Queens received positive results, while at another clinic in Jackson Heights, 56 per cent tested positive. –

      “Areas of New York have recorded a nearly 70 per cent rate of immunity to Covid-19, in what scientists have described as “stunning” findings that suggest they could be protected from any second wave.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

      “At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/30/around-third-no-coronavirus-symptoms-may-have-developed-immunity/

      “Covid-19 immunity could be twice as high as believed, Swedish study finds

      “Findings by Karolinska Institutet suggest infection hotspots such as London could be further towards herd immunity than thought

      “Up to a third of healthy people without symptoms of coronavirus may have developed immunity to it, international research suggests.

      71

    • #
      Serge Wright

      It’s interesting to note the ABC commentary on the virus. When commenting on the USA they point the finger of blame for all deaths on Trump and never mention Cuomo, who presided over the NY disaster. Down here, I can’t see a word of criticism of Andrews, despite such an obvious failure on his part in allowing the virus to escape.
      The ABC really need to pick up their act.

      130

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Yeah but the Australian Bolshevik Collective would be bored if it couldnt rail against anything right wing, or so it seems…

        Defund the vipers pit of useless leftists now….

        60

        • #
          Serp

          Another year of this and there won’t be funding for very much at all though I’ve no doubt the ABC will be kept at the head of the queue that shares the fast diminishing cash flow.

          30

  • #
    John rice

    There is a third option. Mandatory face masks in public indoor spaces along with vitamin d supplementation for those deficient. That should be enough to push r naught below 1. Add physical distancing when possible for extra insurance.

    1313

    • #
      7887

      Why do people keep rabbiting on about face masks.
      They simply do not work. Look up the BMJ. 97% of virus penetrated cloth masks.
      You would think I masks would have some effect but virus are so small it’s like trying to stop mosquitoes with chicken wire.
      We are always told to follow the science. The science says they don’t work.

      239

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        A link to your evidence please ?
        BTW , the BMJ was saying this in March to preserve stocks of face masks for medical staff in the UK.
        The same lies were put about here in Oz then as well.
        But now that stocks of masks are good
        Victorians are being asked to wear them.
        Go figure !

        1020

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Some people just can’t handle the truth Bill.

          Sad, isn’t it.

          30

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            The sad truth is, some doctors lie. Any mask will impede the transmission of the virus. There is a huge variation in the efficiency of masks.

            Negative calls on the use of masks were clearly made with the toilet paper syndrome in mind. I even saw one call that the plebs shouldn’t use high quality masks because the professionals needed them. No recognition that the market could and would post haste meet whatever demand was in evidence.

            Suitable masks are now widely used in industry. It’s a case of which are best for this particular job. It’s probable that designs will be greatly improved in a short space of time.

            40

      • #
        Peter C

        Show me your Science 7887.

        The Covid virus is likely conveyed in droplets of moisture from coughing, sneezing or talking. The droplets are much larger than the virus particles and hence are stopped by a mask.

        I have not read that the virus particles float around free in the air.

        125

        • #
          Bright Red

          Peter C

          And the droplets dry out limiting the masks capability to retain them. It’s not all about the initial trapping it’s also about retaining the virus until the mask is properly disposed of.

          40

          • #
            Slithers

            How you take the mask off can actually be the cause of infection if you come in contact with the surface you have been breathing through!
            Also if you don’t disinfect the mask putting on a used mask is high risk.

            80

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

              “Available evidence

              “In areas where there is community transmission or large-scale outbreaks of COVID-19, universal masking has been adopted in many hospitals to reduce the potential of (asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic) transmission by health workers and anyone entering the facility with COVID-19 to other health workers and to patients.(47)

              “There are currently no studies that have evaluated the effectiveness and potential adverse effects of universal or targeted continuous mask use by health workers in preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Despite the lack of evidence the great majority of the WHO COVID-19 IPC GDG members supports the practice of health workers and caregivers in clinical areas (irrespective of whether there are COVID-19 or other patients in the clinical areas) in geographic settings where there is known or suspected community transmission of COVID-19, to continuously wear a medical mask throughout their shift, apart from when eating and drinking or changing the mask after caring for a patient requiring droplet/contact precautions for other reasons (e.g., influenza), to avoid any possibility of cross-transmission.

              60

              • #
                Peter C

                I think it is equally important to put masks on the patients. They are already sick. Keep their coughs inside their masks.

                This is not being done so far. It is not too expensive to hand masks to all patients attending health facilities and ask them to wear them.

                31

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              This is good too:

              https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

              Brief Communication
              Published: 03 April 2020

              “Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks

              “Nancy H. L. Leung, Daniel K. W. Chu, Eunice Y. C. Shiu, Kwok-Hung Chan, James J. McDevitt, Benien J. P. Hau, Hui-Ling Yen, Yuguo Li, Dennis K. M. Ip, J. S. Malik Peiris, Wing-Hong Seto, Gabriel M. Leung, Donald K. Milton & Benjamin J. Cowling

              “Our findings indicate that surgical masks can efficaciously reduce the emission of influenza virus particles into the environment in respiratory droplets, but not in aerosols12.

              Among the samples collected without a face mask, we found that the majority of participants with influenza virus and coronavirus infection did not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols, whereas for rhinovirus we detected virus in aerosols in 19 of 34 (56%) participants (compared to 4 of 10 (40%) for coronavirus and 8 of 23 (35%) for influenza).

              “For those who did shed virus in respiratory droplets and aerosols, viral load in both tended to be low (Fig. 1). ….this might imply that prolonged close contact would be required for transmission to occur, even if transmission was primarily via aerosols, as has been described for rhinovirus colds20.

              The major limitation of our study was the large proportion of participants with undetectable viral shedding in exhaled breath for each of the viruses studied.

              90

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            Bright Red @#2.1.2.1

            If you have to wear a mask for an extended period it doesn’t dry out, quite the opposite. Excessive moisture is more the problem.

            But yes, disposal of contaminated masks will be a problem that has to be addressed.

            10

            • #
              Bright Red

              Ted O
              The drying out would be highly dependant on the environment such as low humidity etc and the location of the virus on a simple face mask.
              Exhaled breath tends to go straight out in the center area of the mask. Inhaled breath mainly comes in from the sides of the mask. Ever seen a smoker breath out smoke and then inhale all of it back in?
              So I agree the center area of the mask will likely remain moist and load up with Covid if you are sick but on the flip side if you cough into a loaded up mask the amount of emitted Covid would likely be very high. If larger droplets fall on the sides of the mask when inhaling they will most likely dry out forming aerosols.

              00

      • #
        PTR

        This is a poorly constructed argument. It refers to only cloth masks specifically. Cottage industries are being setup to manufacture these. They are becoming a current fashion statement. Jane Marwick argued on Credlin recently, that there is an urgent need for face masks to be assessed and warranted so as to meet Aus design standards. They could be then labelled accordingly. The N ratings given to masks do indicate their usefulness. Of course this would all take time to organize, and would require followup policing. So it just as likely becomes another impractical ideal. Further, it is often suggested that if nothing else, whatever sort of face mask is used, it somewhat restricts the user from excess spreading, if they are carrying the virus. Seems to me that if any one has a slightest idea that they are infected, they need self isolate, and except for perhaps the need to protect others in their confined environment, there is no need for them to be wearing a mask and testing it’s usefulness anyway.

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      • #
        Broadie

        Laura goes through the ‘Science’ on the masks.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBlyh96yL7Q

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        • #

          Broadie (and others who do this). It’s a non-argument cheap tactic to post a video and just say “ditto”. Either you know the topic you profess an opinion on, or you don’t. If Laura is so convincing, explain the reasoning you found worthy. Otherwise this kind of comment shows that you just *want* masks to be worthless and found someone to say stuff that supports an unscientific hopey fantasy.

          Lat’s raise the standard of debate here. Commenters who don’t read posts here and lazily and repeatedly post declarations with no evidence or reasoning need to do better.

          References to my arguments posted long ago. http://joannenova.com.au/tag/masks/

          Masks reduce spread by 70%, Distance by 80%

          Masks do help, even (maybe) stopping 75% of influenza, and you can make them

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            Broadie

            Sorry Jo.
            I have a day job and have always relied on blogs like yours to keep up to date. I loved the late John L Daly and his book ‘Still waiting for Greenhouse’ is one of the most amazing explorations on our climate I have read.

            My reply was to a request for evidence on face masks. Laura Ingram goes through the claims and refers to the studies in this compilation. ’7887′ refers to the ‘science’ and Laura explores that question on Fox while referring to studies.

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          • #
            AZ1971

            Masks reduce spread by 70%, Distance by 80%

            Masks do help, even (maybe) stopping 75% of influenza, and you can make them

            Question … now with Covid-19 will we all be required to wear masks all of the time? You know, to save lives n’ stuff.

            Are we going to be fined if we don’t? Are we going to jail violators and release real criminals? Oh wait … we’re already doing that in the US.

            Are we going to seek reparations for past survivors of influenza because we haven’t been wearing them? Will we litigate for any communicable disease now because Covid-19 is setting a precedent?

            Where does it end?

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      Annie

      In dry conditions, yes. But if the virii are contained in larger droplets of water/whatever (dare I be crude and say sn*t!) then masks do help. They need cleanliness and proper handling. I’ve used masks for shopping from the outset of this Wuflu, for at least a modicum of protection from the poor behaviour, hygiene-wise, of some people. Weeks and weeks ago I was in our local supermarket, a couple near the deli counter, I was about to slip past when the bloke gave an almighty yawn, uncovered,…yuk! I waited a while before continuing.

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        Peter C

        Good advice Annie.

        IF someone sneezes in the supermarket, head in the other direction ASAP, exit via the most distant checkout and sanatise hands immediately after.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I once saw a simulation of a sneeze in a supermarket aisle….it spreads out to fill one aisle ( by volume ) and seeps through the shelving into the next aisle by up to 50% of its cross sectional volume.

          Areosols are amazing things. However in my posts above, it seems to indicate the Cov19 may not be that spreadable by aerosols/sneezing any way by comparison to a rhinovirus.

          The science is a bit iffy on this subject.

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        • #
          Annie

          Thanks for that Peter C.

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      • #
        el gordo

        Central West of the Blue Mountains we are Covid free and its rare to see masks. I’ll add to your anecdote, on the ground the complaint is that the masks are too expensive anyway and its unlikely the habit will ever catch on.

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        • #
          RickWill

          The workers in supermarkets in Victoria are being supplied with masks but it is their choice to wear them – most do.

          My wife will only now shop at Woolworths because they are placing notices on their stores if they have had a staff member with the virus. She abhors the secrecy in Victoria and wants to encourage organisations that are open about the issues they have with the virus.

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    • #

      John Rice “There is a third option.”
      No reason that cannot be part of an elimination strategy.The lower you get R the faster it is eradicated. The more help eradication gets the faster the battle is over apart from fencing out the infected from countries that are slow to wake up to the reality of elimination being the only real answer.

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      • #

        Exactly Siliggy, and surely it is beyond obvious that to avoid a hard lockdown we ought take every cheap option that lowers R before we have to do the expensive stuff.

        I would think that the anti-lockdowners would be the biggest fans of masks, but counter-intuitively that doesn’t seem to be common.

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  • #
    BoyfromTottenham

    Should all at-risk groups be given vitamin D and zinc supplements until we have a vaccine?

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    • #
      David Maddison

      It may help and will certainly do no harm. Myself and most people I know including medical dictors are already taking them.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        But the amount of Vitamin D allowed by the doctors is insufficient to make any differnece.

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        • #

          Raise the vitamin D the way ancient Israel did during the plagues of Egypt. Roast a whole lamb on a spit with bitter herbs and eat it indoors lock down style all night apart from the bone marrow because that contains vitamin A which can work against D. Then get heaps of solar UV. A good 40 day march across the desert should do. March because that maintains a 1.5 meter spacing. And do that in family groups to maintain some isolation.

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          • #

            It is possible to overdo zinc, which can cause a copper deficiency. It’s also possible to overdo D, though the risk of being too high is vastly smaller, and far less common, than the risk of being too low. Theoretically we should blood test people first, but the cost and time involved means that it would be more economic to just offer these supplements free to high risk and poorer neighbourhoods with information to help those choose whether to use them. As a temporary measure both supplements are very safe.

            but our health system is not set up for preventative care at all, so there are no mechanisms for this sort of program — other than waiting for people to ask for blood tests and then only suggesting a supplement if they fall below a level known to cause serious harm, but not below levels that are only likely to increase infection and mortality.

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            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              but our health system is not set up for preventative care at all,

              As I point out above Jo, our health system seems to have a penchant for making it as hard as possible to deal with this virus.

              To get HCQ your doctor now has to seek authorization from a government paper-pusher before he/she can prescribe it in Australia.

              Amazingly that even applies to non-Covid-19 presciptions.

              The health minister needs to be brought up to date – or sacked.

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              • #
                Ted O'Brien.

                What reason was given for this restriction? I thought it was in common use for people travelling in malaria zones.

                Does the toilet paper syndrome run this deep? The toilet paper experience has extended to create much confusion in regard to masks.

                Or could it be Trump Derangement Syndrome?

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          • #
            TedM

            Try 40 years Sligy.

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    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day BfT,
      I agree. I’ve included quercetin in my regime, in case the zinc needs some help from an ionophore.
      I find I have two distinct attitudes to the virus, one is that it is a minor disease if anticipated correctly, and/or if it is treated rapidly with the Zelenko cocktail with added zinc;
      but the other is abject fear that if I get tested positive I’ll be put into the hands of practitioners of the current politco-health department rules which prelude the use of the cure, and so they’ll wait while I go through the ICU to death at 82 i.e. soon.

      Related: I visited my doctor on Thursday (non urgent), discovered my vitamin D levels were measured two years ago at 58 nmol/L, which he reckoned was a good number. I don’t, and am aiming for 100. At my request he’s given me a referral for a blood test, including vitamin D and zinc, for which I’ve made an appointment for next Thursday. In the mean time I’m taking 6000 IU per day of vitamin D along with 1 tablet/day each of zinc and quercetin. Will report on results when I get them, in about 10 days.

      Meantime I am continuing my isolation, which thankfully is business as usual for me.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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    • #
      Slithers

      Vitamin D3 and K2 are the recommended prophylactics, zinc cream, the white stuff cricketers use is also good.

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  • #

    How does Australia count deaths? Does that differ from state to state or is there consistency,

    This emerged today in the UK, PHE is public health England, the quango overseeing hospitals

    ‘PHE counts people as victims if they die of any cause any time after testing positive for Covid-19 – even if they were hit by a bus months after beating the life-threatening infection, top academics revealed last night. The method is likely why the daily fatality tolls are not dropping quickly in England because survivors never truly recover from the disease as their deaths are blamed on the coronavirus – regardless of their real cause.  ’

    As far as I can determine many countries count deaths in different ways, some include all situations, like the UK, some count only hospital deaths, some determine the victim died from covid Only whilst others that they died with it, but not of it.

    So what does Oz do?

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    James Poulos

    3,000 new cases in Victoria in 3 weeks with 2 victims from the new cases.

    That just cost about $1 billion per week so far.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    I agree 100% with Jo, elimination is possible, look at Vietnam or New Zealand for examples.
    Elimination also has economic benefits with the hit to New Zealand’s economy at around 40% of GDP against the USA with 160% of their GDP
    Elimination means that you don’t have to divert resources into policing lockdowns, or supplying expensive treatments.

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    Reed Coray

    I’ve heard that the amount of money hospitals receive from government is proportional to the number of COVID-19 deaths they report–i.e., the more reported deaths, the more money received. Has anyone else heard this? Does anyone know if it is true and/or to what extent it is true?

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      David Maddison

      It is true in some parts of the US.

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      Bill In Oz

      And NOT true is Australia Reed Cooray.
      So why waste your time writing that comment ?

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        Annie

        That IS of interest Bill…it is relevant when comparing death rates in different countries, helps us to understand the variations. Thank you Reed Coray.
        Bill, your comment was very impolite and your attitude will put people off taking note of the times when you post something of interest.

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      • #
        Reed Coray

        To bug you. Looks like it’s working.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      A fair question, Reed.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Nahhh just an attempt to distract from what is happening in Australia
        Which is what this post is all about.

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        • #
          MudCrab

          I see, Bill.

          So is what is happening in New Zealand a distraction from what is happening in Australia?

          Australian death rates is in the range of 4 per million. We should not, under Bill Logic, distract ourselves with overseas figures.

          Hence, again under Bill Logic of no overseas distractions, we can only compare WuFlu to other Australian death rates. About 550 people die each day in Australia. Distract on that.

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    • #
      joseph

      Here’s an interview with Dr. Jensen, a Minnesota senator, with dollar amounts about 4 minutes in . . . . .

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CZzdSzUZLE

      and another short interview with Dr. Jensen on Fox News . . . . .

      https://video.foxnews.com/v/6148398329001#sp=show-clips

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      Slithers

      There is an article here that explains the rorts being done in Orlando Florida regarding paymenst to US hospitals TREATING COVID-19.

      https://principia-scientific.com/massive-covid-19-data-fraud-uncovered-in-florida/

      They get around $3000 for a bed occupied by a COVID-19 patient. Their main hospital has around 700 beds so the rort netted 600 plus times $3000.
      I don’t know if that is a one off payment. They also get $3500 if patient in ICU.

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      • #

        This may well be true, but it is not true in scores of countries around the world. Excess death graphs show that more people are dying of covid than are diagnosed as such.

        So — despite these payments you list — covid is killing more people than our medical systems can diagnose.

        A lot of people are searching for evidence that supports the conclusion they want to find. It doesn’t seem to matter how many times I post counter information. Hm?

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        • #
          Slithers

          Jo The stats and $3000 per patient has absolutely NO relationship with any reporting other than financial, certainly nothing to do with deaths. The US system rewards hospitals for treating people with Covid-19, so a level purported to be almost 700 beds occupied by covid-19 patients when less than 70 are Covid-19 patients is not significant on the stats for the State but very lucrative for the hospital. They are stating that the hospital has an occupancy factor of 98% of the beds occupied are COVID-19 patients even if they are only 25% full!
          A recent death in hospital of a man who had had a motorbike accident was listed as a COVID-19 death. $3000 in the bank from a patient who was barely alive when he arrived and succumbed to his injuries just a few hour later.

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    • #

      Good chance the time they spend in prison for over reporting is proportional too.

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  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Paper from the Oxford group, it really has significant implications.

    T cell immunity means there are far less susceptible people than thought.

    It could mean the virus is running out of healthy hosts to infect. It would explain a lot.

    Abstract

    It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting.
    Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

    via twitter: https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1284058889722437632

    (I post stuff like this not because I understand and endorse and/or oppose, but, am trying to understand.)

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Thanks for posting that Travis.
      It may be important.
      But should any nation base it’s strategy on one research paper ?

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    • #
      William Astley

      The paper asserts that covid population models indicate we could stop Covid if 50% of the population have covid immunity (do not replicate).

      The Covid cases vs Vitamin D level study showed, that there is an inverse linear relationship of how high the activated Vitamin D is in a person’s bloodstream and their chance of dying or getting serious covid symptoms.

      A vitamin D deficient person, 25(OH)D less than 20 ng/mal has a 19 times greater chance of dying/serious covid symptoms, than a person who has activated Vitamin D above 30 ng/ml.

      A Vitamin D insufficient person 25(OH)D more than 20 ng/ml but less than 30 ng/ml was a 12 times less chance of dying than Vitamin D normal above 30 ng/ml.

      A blood serum level above 30 ng/ml is assumed to be normal in every developed country, a blood level above 30 ng/ml is not however not optimum.

      Vitamin D is a proto hormone that turns on genes that add apparatus to our cells.

      The women’s breast Vitamin D cancer study found that a 25(OH)D blood serum level, those who had a blood serum level greater than 60 ng/ml along with calcium supplements, had a more than 80% reduction in the incidence of breast cancer and 50% reduction in incidence in type 2 diabetes (biggest medical cost item in the US) and so on. This study indicates that human Vitamin D optimum is likely greater than 60 ng/ml which only a very few of us can achieve without a minimum of 4000 UI/day. (A small woman taking 4000 UI/day might achieve 60ng/ml)

      There is also a prostate cancer study that found the same thing. The prostate cancer study found that Vitamin D is turning on a gene that is believed to enable the body to stop inflammation which is how it is believed cancers cells trick the body to supply them blood if I remember correctly. Inflammation is also involved with heart disease which explain why there is also a reduction in heart attacks and autoimmune diseases such as arthritis. There also is less depression and so on. There appear to be great number of diseases that related to the blood serum 25(OH)D level.

      Those who had prostate cancer and were receiving Vitamin D supplements of 4000 UI/day, in a randomized study, had better blood numbers and their tumor shrank, as compared to those who did not receive Vitamin D supplements and their removed prostates showed evidence that confirmed the gene associated with how the human body stoppies internal inflammation had been activated.

      If we can get 50% of the population to ‘Vitamin’ D optimum, blood serum 25(OH)D greater than 60 ng/ml and assuming that stops the virus from replicating in 50% that along with social isolating of those who are at risk or do not like risk would stop the virus from spreading.

      The hypothesis the which Vitamin D is reducing the covid death rate by a factor of 19, is that it is stopping the virus from replicating, by turning on a gene, that builds a zinc ionophore on our cells, the zinc ionophore on our cell gets a tiny amount of zinc into our cells which has been shown to stop the virus from replicating… As this class of viruses must connect to the ACE-2 connector molecule in our cell to replicate and Zn+2 makes the ACE-2 connector slightly positive which stops the virus from replicating.

      If the above hypothesis is correct Vitamin D supplements would stop the virus from replicating and spreading to other people.

      So to test this strategy, we need to get a city where more than 50% of the population take Vitamin D supplements of 4000 UI/day. The Vitamin D researchers have recommended that all of the US take 5000 UI/day.

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        PTR

        The general theme in this infers that Vit D is beneficial with increased loading. In that regard there may be an error in the way Par 4 is presented … ” 12 times less chance” Further, in Par 5 it states: “30ng/ml is not however not optimum” Wonder if there is 1 too many not(s) in that?

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Thanks W A,
        That confirms what I’d read also, but this bit was new to me. Fascinating:
        ” The hypothesis the which Vitamin D is reducing the covid death rate by a factor of 19, is that it is stopping the virus from replicating, by turning on a gene, that builds a zinc ionophore on our cells, the zinc ionophore on our cell gets a tiny amount of zinc into our cells which has been shown to stop the virus from replicating… ”
        Do you have a link for this, please? Sounds like I shouldn’t need the quercetin supplement I mention in #3.2 above??
        Cheers
        Dave B

        40

        • #
          • #

            I posted on the Vit D study in Indonesia.

            Be wary that the 19 fold result is wildly high compared to normal studies in biomedical areas.

            This retrospective study was not controled and may just show that the infection itself degrades Vit D.

            I’d love to believe D was that useful, but I don’t.

            To find past posts here just google joannenova Vitami Ds, or words to that effect. You’ll find the tag entry that lists all the posts that are related. Or use the Index link (top right) which lists every single tag alphabetically.

            http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/indonesian-study-low-vitamin-d-patients-ten-times-more-likely-to-die-of-coronavirus/

            http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/perhaps-solve-the-other-pandemic-vitamin-d-deficiency-to-help-beat-coronavirus/

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            • #

              That said, William and David (x 2) — my first post on Vitamin D shows we are utterly bonkers not to be using it to reduce the spread and the mortality — not just of covid but all the other conditions I listed in that post.

              The amount of research on this is extraordinary. Your conclusions are broadly correct.
              I just suggest some skepticism on the Indonesian study.

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            • #
              William Astley

              Jo,

              Vitamin D Vs Covid and 70% of all serious diseases, is in the fog of war.

              Is there any evidence that disputes the assertion the chances of getting covid serious or dying from covid is inversely related to how Vitamin D deficient the person was?

              The Indonesian Vitamin D Blood Serum Level Vs Chance of Dying from Covid is now hidden.

              I will summarize the Vitamin D, ‘evidence’.

              The US covid death rate has dropped by almost a factor of ten. This unexplained reduction in the Covid death rate, is explained by the reduction in the percentage of Vitamin D deficient people in the summer in the US.

              A big issue is the general population have been told that Vitamin D deficiency can be corrected with Vitamin D supplements of 600 UI/day or 1000 UI/day and some believe that a person should not take more than Vitamin D supplements of 1000 UI/day.

              That is incorrect, 4000 UI/day per person is required to get raise level of activated Vitamin D in the blood stream about 30 ng/ml.

              The general population believe Vitamin D supplements of 4000 UI/day is high. There is no medical record of anyone have any issue with Vitamin D taking less than 20,000 UI/day. The upper daily tolerable level for Vitamin D, based on standard tests used to determine the upper tolerable daily level for Vitamin D is 4000 UI/day.

              From an evolutionary standpoint, our body has had millions of years to develop a natural zinc ionophore which lets a tiny amount of zinc into our cells that stops….

              The Zn+2 ions, that gets into our cells, stop an entire class of viruses which covid is one of from replicating.

              The US black population is twice as likely as the US white population to die from covid as white people…

              Which makes sense as twice as many Black people are extremely Vitamin D deficient as compared to white people.

              The higher death rate for Blacks in the UK than US could be explained if the US blacks are less black than UK blacks and there is less available UVB.

              https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52492662

              Coronavirus: Black African deaths three times higher than white Britons – study

              This is the link to the study that shows 82% of the US Black population, 68% of the US Hispanic population and 42% of the US general population is Vitamin D deficient.

              Prevalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults.
              https://tahomaclinic.com/Private/Articles4/WellMan/Forrest%202011%20-%20Prevalence%20and%20correlates%20of%20vitamin%20D%20deficiency%20in%20US%20adults.pdf

              Finally, Missing link between vitamin D prostate cancer

              https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141022164052.htm

              About 40% of Canadians were below the cut-off in winter (20 ng/ml), compared with 25% in the summer.

              Canadians: Statistics Canada

              Highlights
              • Just over two-thirds of Canadians (68%) had blood concentrations of vitamin D over 20 nmol/L—a level that is sufficient for healthy bones for most people. About 32% of Canadians were below the cut-off.
              • Children aged 3 to 5 had the highest rates above the cut-off (89%), while the 20- to 39-year-olds had the lowest (59%).
              • A minority of Canadians (34%) took a supplement containing vitamin D, but a larger percentage of those taking supplements were above the cut-off (85%), compared with non-supplement users (59%).
              • About 40% of Canadians were below the cut-off in winter, compared with 25% in the summer.
              • On average, females had a higher concentration of vitamin D in their blood than males.

              30

              • #
                William Astley

                This comment is incorrect:

                The upper daily tolerable level for Vitamin D, based on standard tests used to determine the upper tolerable daily level for Vitamin D is 4000 UI/day.

                The upper Daily Tolerable level for Vitamin D based on Standard rests to determine the upper tolerable level for Vitamin D is 10,000 UI/day, not 4000 UI/day.

                So for some reason the entire population is severely deficient in Vitamin D for example it is noted in the below study that breast feeding Asian woman (from Pakistan or India, dark skin people) had Vitamin D levels of less 8 ng/ml where Vitamin D ‘normal’ is above 30 ng/ml and aboe 60 ng/ml is Vitamin D optimum.

                There appears and there is in the US and organized, funded effort keep the population Vitamin D deficient and ignorant as to how deficient they are.

                The UK/Canada/Australian Vitamin D recommendation is the same, Vitamin D deficient is defined as less than 20 ng/ml (which is just above the level where people start to have rickets) and we know that those having a Vitamin D blood serum greater than 30 ng/ml have a 19 times less chance of death/covid serious, than people who have activated Vitamin D blood serum levels of less than 20 ng/ml.

                https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11861227/

                From: Vitamin D deficiency in UK Asian families: activating a new concern

                ….However, we have seen a resurgence of vitamin D deficiency in Asian children in the past two to three years in Birmingham, experience mirrored by reports from elsewhere in the UK of vitamin D deficiency in infants (London), 10 adults (Leicester), 11 and pregnant women (Cardiff). 12 In addition to rickets, infants have presented in the first six to nine months of life with symptomatic hypocalcaemia, particularly seizures; we have seen one case of life threatening cardiomyopathy.

                Unlike other reports which have implicated prolonged and exclusive breast feeding, 13 most of our infants have been both breast and formula fed and several have been receiving multivitamin supplements. These infants have all had evidence of severe vitamin D deficiency (25hydroxyvitamin D <8 ng/ml) as have the majority of the mothers who have also been tested. Most of these infants have been born to mothers who were themselves born in the UK. It would appear that the previous recommendations regarding prevention have been largely forgotten and our initial enquiries indicate that most UK maternity units do not have a policy of providing vitamin D supplements to pregnant Asian women.

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              • #
                William Astley

                Almost all of what I write above and in general, are my own words except, for the direct quote from my government’s agency Statistics Canada who I can quote.

                The published papers I quote are now in the US free to view. In the US, due to pressure from advocate’s group, more and more medical papers are now available free to view, because the US government paid/contributed for the research.

                [Thanks releasing comment now.]AD

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          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            Thanks David, but I don’t see any reference to Vitamin D being a zinc ionophore in a quick scan of those links. Am I missing something?
            Cheers
            Dave B

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  • #

    Define lockdown?

    To eradicate a virus requires a form of lockdown that will never be accepted by the people. We in Victoria are not under lockdown in that sense. We are under a semi lockdown that manifests mainly as enforced social distancing and ‘please wear masks’. The residents of one high rise community housing tower are the only under actual lockdown. That will see off C-19 for that group, although the psychological damage must be horrendous to all concerned.

    So this is why I say, and have been saying all along, despite the sighs from some, that lockdowns don’t work. They cannot be implemented. Eradication by lockdown is a myth.

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      Bill In Oz

      Twas almost achieved in Victoria in March-April
      Until your cheap untrained security guard fiasco
      And your allowing travellers to refuse testing fiasco
      And sex by security guards with infected travellers in quarantine fiasco…
      And the big family ‘end of fast’. parties fiasco

      Meanwhile the rest of Australia did just fine.
      And of course now thousands of fearful Victorians are trying to flee Melbourne
      Spreading it to the rest of the country.
      Thank god we are catching most of these folks
      And shipping them back where they came from !
      We don’t want to catch it from you dudes.
      So if you want to travel anywhere else in Australia in the future
      You’d better lock your selves down properly
      ELIMINATE THE VIRUS.

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    • #
      RickWill

      The level of quarantine required needs to be sufficient to take the infection rate below 1. That is quite easily achieved with a little thought. It is easier in places like Taiwan where people are not as “privileged” in the sense of self-importance. They are more community minded.

      The US has a large dose of self-importance. Even to the point of freedom to gather being a constitutional right. Irrespective of that there will be a threshold where individuals will give up the privilege of gathering to save lives. When they know someone who has succumb to the virus they will self-quarantine. That is already happening in Sweden:
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-19/sweden-in-very-deep-economic-crisis-despite-soft-lockdown

      Scandinavia’s biggest economy will shrink 7% this year, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Tuesday. Shortly after she spoke, the debt office revealed an historic 30-fold spike in borrowing to cover emergency spending amid record job losses. A separate survey showed 40% of businesses in Sweden’s service sector now fear bankruptcy.

      There’s been intense speculation over Sweden’s controversial model for fighting the spread of the coronavirus. Though the country has seen considerably more Covid-19 deaths than its Nordic neighbors, some theorized it might at least suffer less economic pain. But the latest data challenge that idea.

      The threshold for action in any community appears to be around 500 deaths per million. Sweden is now past that figure and US is approaching it.

      There has never been an easier time in history to survive in comfort without the need for gatherings. Most social events have little to do with surviving. Any gathering in a community where the virus is present is a privilege that should not be tolerated. It takes less than 30 days to eradicate the virus from any community. That is not a big ask to forego the privilege of gathering in a crowd – more than 2 people or immediate family.

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    David Maddison

    Here are some of my thoughts

    1) It is by no means clear that a vaccine is possible. There is no successful vaccine for any other human coronavirus. Even though there is a lot of effort going into one for C-19, even if it is possible, by the time it is developed, tested and produced, even with fast tracking and relaxation of the usual regulatory rules, it may take a long time. One year is the figure commonly cited.

    2) It is suggested that a vaccine may not be possible because a) the rapid mutation rate of C-19, which is why there is no HIV vaccine and b) it is claimed that antibodies to C-19 disappear after a few months and people get reinfected. This may have implications for vaccine efficacy because the vaccine has to stimulate the body to produce antibodies.

    3) If no vaccine is possible and even if it is but it takes a year or more to produce, where does that leave us?

    4) Is it acceptable to be kept in home detention forever?

    5) Even if the virus is eliminated as in NZ, the entire population remains vulnerable. The price is isolation from the outside world. Sooner or later the virus will get in even via a non-human vector like an infected Chinese worker coughing on a frozen food package which is then imported to NZ.

    6) The government refuses to properly look into the Zelenko protocol (EXACTLY as he described it) for early stage infection. This is why Clive Palmer secured 32 million doses of HCQ but it is not clear what happened to those. The Government and their advisors are apparently against HCQ just because Trump’s advisors wanted it looked at. None of the HCQ trials, including the ASCOT trial in Australia follow the Zelenko protocol. All clinical trials of the drug have been sabotaged one way or another such as too high a dose, too late in administration or no zinc supplementation. It has to be given immediately upon suspicion of infection and is at the very least harmless. HCQ, one pill per week may also be useful for prophylaxis according to Zelenko. At least try it.

    7) Other drugs also need to be properly looked at, e.g. ivermectin as reported by No recently.

    8) Protecting the vulnerable such as the elderly in nursing homes and elsewhere and others with known comorbidities should be a part of the protection plan.

    9) Perhaps mask wearing in public indoor ateas such as shopping malls, shops, offices or public areas of apartment complexes or lifts (elevators) should be required.

    10) China needs to be held strongly to account for the release or escape of this virus. Many other pandemic viruses have originated in China as well such as various influenzas and SARS. It seems to be a fertile breeding ground for them. And yet rather than punish, people like Chairman Do Pi Dan of Victoriastan reward them with participation with their Belt and Road Initiative which will give China even more control over us. Same with NZ and B and R.

    11) Don’t forget the bigger picture. Our Western Civilisation, even before the virus, was at great risk of destruction. Don’t forget that the virus might be the thing that pushes it over the edge. Notice how the Left are loving it and talking about a “reset” and the “post COVID era”?

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      David Maddison

      Clarification re mutation rate: C-19 is an RNA virus and mutates faster than a DNA virus although some say it is not an excessive rate that would preclude vaccine development, assuming a vaccine is possible.

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      • #

        David, all good comments. The only thing you forget is that the virus will mutate to become less deadly at some point.

        The travel bubbles are a temporary thing possibly lasting only a few years.

        My argument is that the cost of one proper lockdown and then three years of freedom is vastly better than the economic price of repeat lockdowns and spreading death and disease while we wait for either a vaccine, antivirals or a nice mutant.

        If any of those things happen in the next few years all the current deaths are unneccessary and avoidable.

        Even if they don’t happen in the next few years I am still not convinced there is any economic advantage in living with the virus. How is a semi-locked society going to have a stronger economy that a free society with a strong border?

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        • #
          AZ1971

          My argument is that the cost of one proper lockdown and then three years of freedom is vastly better than the economic price of repeat lockdowns

          A “proper” lockdown would be absolutely no movement, anywhere, by anyone, for 14 days.

          No medical personnel going to/from work.
          No medical emergencies being picked up from homes to go to a hospital.
          No shopping for groceries.
          No commerce at all.
          Nothing.

          Every person, everywhere, locked in place for 14 days, no exceptions.

          Without that protocol being fully implemented, you’re not going to get “proper” results. Can we do that?

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        • #
          Damon

          You cannot lock down a country. If you allow international travel by the citizens, you have no control over where they go, so it means mandatory quarantine by all entrants, travel bubble or no. What about merchant shipping? Are you saying all crew will be quarantined for two weeks? Ever heard of shipping schedules? What will you do with the cruising yachts, that can land almost anywhere? It won’t even work in NZ, and for bigger countries, the idea is absurd.

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          • #

            Satellites. Navy. Airforce. Two week mandatory quarantine.

            Isolated hotels for any entrants here temporarily to bring trade etc.

            AZ1971, proper lockdown has been done in many countries. South Korea and Taiwan even showed other methods of virus control. Just get Ro below 1 and keep it there. Then track test and trace. How is 4 months a year of lockdown in split segments with thousands infected, better than one shorter continuous lockdown that solves the problem?

            And the “supression” v “elimination” states will look very different in year two when the suppression state is still dealing with it and finding it hard to get enough medical staff to maintain hospitals.

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            • #
              Damon

              You haven’t addressed any of my points. In a ‘year or two’ the economy will either be in tatters, or the government will have come to its senses.

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          • #
            Sceptical Sam

            You cannot lock down a country.

            You can you know. You just need to think it through, Damon. For example:

            If you allow international travel by the citizens, you have no control over where they go,

            Yes you do have control over where they go. However, if they are tested on arrival, quarantined for 14 days (at their expense) and tested before they are released from quarantine – and only released if they are not carrying the disease, then where they go is not such a big deal.

            What about merchant shipping?

            All crew stay on the ship until it departs. They’re tested when the ship arrives and on the day of its departure. A quarantine barrier is kept between ship and shore. Full PPE is mandated for all crew at all times and any Australian based marine workforce when servicing the vessel.

            Ever heard of shipping schedules?

            The schedule may need to be adjusted to facilitate the loss in efficiency in servicing the freight vessels in a safe way. Do you think the cruise industry (for example) would prefer to adjust its schedule rather than have their vessels sit idle rusting away somewhere in the Caribbean?

            What will you do with the cruising yachts,

            They report to the harbour master who puts them on a quarantine buoy. They are tested and quarantined for 14 days, and tested again. Just like the “old days” m’hearties.

            Now, what’s absurd about that?

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      Bill In Oz

      Get your facts right David.
      Vaccine for Covid moving to stage 3 trials in USA : 30,000 people.
      Ummm !
      https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-vaccine-moderna-s-mrna-1273-vaccine-progresses-to-phase-iii-after-successful-early-clinical-results

      And trials are also happening in Australia with another vaccine.

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        David Maddison

        I didn’t say there weren’t vaccine development efforts.

        As I said, one year is the commonly cited figure (for release to the population) even if these trial vaccines are successful.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Get your facts right David.
        The Greenists HATE the pandemic.
        It takes all the media’s attention away from their fake crisis
        And focuses it on a real crisis.
        There blathering about a ‘reset’ is just
        A desperate failing attempt to gain public attention again

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      • #
        MudCrab

        Bill, you yourself argue that discussing overseas developments is a distraction from what is happening in Australia.

        By your own request please leave all overseas rumours out of the thread.

        We don’t want you to red thumb yourself.

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        OriginalSteve

        Bill…go for it.

        I reckon being a guinea pig for any vaccine is, in the words of Sir Humphry, “a courageous descision”.

        Being a guinea pig for this bug…priceless….

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      Bill In Oz

      Get your facts right David :
      if the virus is eliminated in Australia & New Zealand,
      it is because that is what almost all the population of Australia & New Zealand want.
      95% of the population are supporting the state governments’ strategy of elimination.
      It seems that that democratic choice by the people
      Gets up your nose a bit !

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I think it is remarkable how many people
      On this blog do NOT like facts.
      This is indicated by their red thumbies.
      Dummy spits from
      Kiddies Infected with PDS !
      But the facts won’t go away Kiddos.
      Best get used to ‘em !
      :-)

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    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day D M,
      Re your point 3 question “Where does it leave us?”, I suggest a government advertising splurge recommending widespread use of vitamin D and zinc with free supply for a month, given to all in quarantine or tested.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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    Ken Davis

    I fail to see how eradication is possible. The only virus we have ever eradicated by human action is smallpox, and it had an effective vaccine. It also was not a coronavirus.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Polio would also have been eradicated if the Taliban hadn’t started murdering all the vaccination workers in Pakistan.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      There are still vials of smallpox virus in freezers at two WHO approved sites. One in USA, one in Russia. They are kept because if there is another outbreak due to some unknown reservoir somewhere, it might be necessary to study it despite the fact that the genome is fully sequenced.

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      el gordo

      We shouldn’t confuse eradication with elimination.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases

      Malaria is more common in the Third World.

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      • #

        We have eliminated many diseases in the first world that are not eradicated in poor nations.

        People do not seem to realize how many lives are saved every day in the West.

        Rabies, TB, Malaria, Cholera. Dengue. Marberg. Plague. Ebola. River blindness. …

        Amoebic and bacterial dysentery kills a million people a year.

        Chlorinated water, soap, hygiene, vaccines, quarantine, antivirals. There are many ways to keep disease out. Aerosol viruses are the hardest — influenza.

        It is quite possible our carelessness in letting this virus escape from China will allow a form of it to develop which spreads fast like influenza / measles and is harder to stop. We are fools for not cutting it off at the source.

        It’s also possible that Victoria has made a major mistake. This round will be harder to get rid of than the last one. Unforgivably stupid. It will cost a lot more to get this out of the country now.

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        • #
          Damon

          No, not ‘eliminated’. Controlled. TB occurs in the poorer sections of NYC, and measles outbreaks occur here. Your examples are inappropriate, and in some cases (Ebola), silly. Obviously, the coronavirus can be controlled, but it is not going to go away, and since it is not particularly dangerous to other than a small subpopulation of the elderly, we should learn to live with it.

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          • #

            Damon, what are the odds of the average American getting measles/ebola/TB. Count the zeroes. These examples are absolutely appropriate.

            Define “dangerous”. How about something that reduced life expectancy by two years and killed 800 US people under 50 by April 11. How many young are dead now? What percentage of the population is suffering long term consequences and still sick 2 months later? We hardly know. Those chat groups are forming now to support them…

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I was discussing with my wide how to beat this damn gift of the CCP and certain globalists….

      What we came up with was, based on the fact its a virilent sod of a thing:

      -Protect the over 70s through stringent isolation methods

      - keep restrictions in place that allows a slow burn through the community to stop medical system being overwhelmed

      - just be patient and deal with it.

      It get annoyed with people who think vaccines will solve everything. If it takes 12 months or more to make a vaccine that could still be dangerous and may not work oroperly, by that stage we have no economy.

      The only deaths are over 70 yo basically, so time to just suck it up and get on with it.

      But…obce were oast 12 months, let it go and keep elderly protected and keep shovelling the HCQ out the door as fast as we can.

      Were out of options really

      Then we set about arresting anyone who made this thing..
      -

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    Robber

    What is a lockdown?
    In Melbourne most shops are open, you can go to work, exercise, but there are limits on gatherings, pubs etc, travel, and schools are closed until at least Aug 19..
    Many aged care homes are in lockdown, no visitors, don’t leave the premises, similar to those housing estates.
    Country Victoria has lighter restrictions with schools operating, and limited numbers in pubs etc.
    There is now discussion about stage 4 restrictions if the curve does not flatten in the next few days, but what does that mean?
    Will everyone be locked in, with police/ADF patrolling the streets? Like China?

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    • #

      Well said Robber. I am afraid that the current rules will not be enough.

      Australians could go to work when the community spread was low and were incredibly successful in March -April. But we may have blown that cheap solution now.

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  • #
    Robber

    Interesting aside as I checked the Vic DHHS website for latest updates on CV19 restrictions – the advice is now available in 56 languages. Can you name 56 languages?

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      But will doing it is 56 languages eliminate all the misinformation and fake news ?
      Highly unlikely.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Somehow I doubt those who can’t speak English would bother reading the website.

      And it’s incomprehensible that none of their friends or family speak enough English or have enough awareness of what’s going on to tell the others.

      None of them seem to have any difficulty accessing the welfare system regardless of their lack of English skills.

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    Bill In Oz

    NBot a single comment yet which respond to the subject of your post Jo :
    Our PM’s crazy attitude to this virus.
    Here we are in most of Australia, Eliminating the virus
    And he thinks that is not possible.
    Duhhh ?

    What to make of our PM dominated by this dopey thinking ?
    Has he got infected by Pandemic Derangement Syndrome as well ?
    It certainly looks like it.
    Perhaps it’s just as well that he has NO control over the states & territories strategies for eliminating the virus.
    One of the benefits of a Federal system in Australia..

    It’s a real pity that little Danny Andrews stuffed up so badly back in May.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Bill its my melancholy duty to inform you that we my lose this war of attrition.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        EG There is a propaganda war happening.
        Initiated by ignorant & uninformed persons on this blog.
        The campaign is an attempt to make Australia go down
        The disasterous path USA & UK are taking.
        It is my duty here to pop their misinformation propaganda balloons.

        Meanwhile in the wider Australian community,
        Almost everybody is supporting the strategy to eliminate the virus.

        714

        • #
          el gordo

          Herd immunity to save the economy, I prefer the elimination strategy, otherwise large football crowds in masks might become the norm.

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        • #
          Rob Kennedy

          Bill, are you omniscient or have been on the blower (or texter) doing your own survey?
          I live not in city or ‘burb, but in the countyside (far from the madding crowd) and most of the people I am in communication with, here and in cities and ‘burbs think that the pandemic thingy is (expletives {many} deleted).
          If only the Internet had not been invented “they” would have easily gotten away with the deception.
          But we know things like Cuomo put sick people in nursing homes and many died needlessly. Trump has taken awy the reporting of Covid19 statistics from the CDC because they have been caught lying. Several hundred eminent medical scientists from all around the globe disagree strongly with the narrative put out by WHO and the other gang members.

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  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    They haven’t told the truth about masks, what other information is deemed too sensitive for us dumb voters?

    Coronavirus: Victorian Government refuses to release key virus data
    A secret report by virus detectives into the source of the COVID-19 outbreak is being kept under wraps by the Victorian Government.

    “But the Doherty Institute confirmed to news.com.au that as a result of the research being included in the terms of reference for the hotel quarantine inquiry, it cannot release the raw data.
    It’s not clear whether the complete data will be released during the inquiry or even after it reports in September.
    “The latest data is subject to the judicial inquiry and it’s not appropriate to discuss publicly until it’s gone through that process,’’ a spokeswoman said.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/coronavirus-victorian-government-refuses-to-release-key-virus-data/news-story/2166fe4212f58b10759ad7e64cd35854

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Travis,
      Once again thanks that for that information and that link.
      Yes the Victorian state Labor government has a lot to answer for.
      Such information should be available to the public immediately.
      But they are running scared.
      Scared that they will be shown up as completely incompetent.

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    • #
      Annie

      Maybe because a big cause was that BLM protest? Andrews and Lisa Neville et al would not want that to come out. The mishandling of the Cedar Meats and hotel quarantine are already bad enough information to condemn them.

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      • #
        RickWill

        The early hospitalisations in the current surge in Victoria indicate is was E a-F celebrations in the M-community rather than the BLM marches.

        In any event, it is not sensible to have gatherings of any kind while the virus exists in the community. Two is company, three is a crowd. There should never be a crowd and only keep the same company.

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  • #
    Rob Kennedy

    “Oh my Dawg!”
    Family dog euthanised after testing positive for coronavirus in South Carolina ! !
    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/family-dog-euthanised-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus-in-south-carolina-c-1175238

    Are all tests equal or some tests more equal than others?

    FOX 35 Orlando investigated and found out that countless labs were reporting 100% COVID positivity rates.
    BREAKING: Health officials from dozen states have mistakenly lumped (+) results from antibody tests in w viral tests for COVID-19 in reporting to CDC, inflating new cases. A (+) antibody test could mean you were infected w virus from same corona family that causes the common cold
    Florida’s COVID Positivity Rate is Skewed – Countless Labs Are Reporting 100% Positivity Rate – Medical Centers Admit REAL Rate is 9% Or Less!
    (headlines courtesy of the Gateway Pundit)

    Meanwhile in Collins County, Texas a video of a County admin meeting agreeing to adopt a new reporting standard that aligns with a computer modelling scenario. The computer said one positive test means that there would be another fifteen ot seventeen probable positives out there! So the “official” infection rate is 17 times what we are certain of.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYPhZGbvnT8&feature=youtu.be
    If the video doesn’t work it means it has been banned. (happening a lot nowadays)

    We should commend our leaders for one point: Blatant false reporting is not happening – yet. The reported figures here in Australia are in fact embarrassingly low. Not enough people absolutely terrified of the virus. They are beginning to be terrified of the consequences of the WHO and WEF “Great Reset.”
    https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/about
    “The Great Reset is a welcome recognition that this human tragedy must be a wake-up call. We must build more equal, inclusive and sustainable economies and societies that are more resilient in the face of pandemics, climate change and the many other global changes we face,” said António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations, New York.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yep Rob,
      Stupidity abounds in the god ole USA nowadays.
      Both at the level of virus testing
      And at the political levels with blind will full ignorance in both major parties.
      :-(

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  • #
    Robber

    Pointing the finger at Scott Morrison ignores the fact that most responsibilities for Health rest with State Governments.
    The Federal Government areas of responsibility are stated in the Australian Constitution and include defence and foreign affairs; trade, commerce and currency; immigration; postal services, telecommunications and broadcasting; air travel; most social services and pensions.
    The Federal Government closed the borders and convened a national cabinet to coordinate actions by the States.
    Most States have been effective in eliminating the virus, but Chairman Dan and his advisers have demonstrated their incompetence.
    Now they are hiding any analysis of their failures – Cedar Meats, hotel quarantine, Islamic school, high rise housing estates.
    Why is there such a high concentration of cases in northern/western suburbs?
    Of 2462 current active cases, Wyndham 299; Hume 280; Melbourne 264; Brimbank 238; Moonee Valley 233; Moreland 133; Whittlesea 109; Melton 106; Banyule 103.
    The only good news – there have been 2669 recoveries.

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    I’m sure that everybody in regional Victoria
    Will be supporting the call by National Party MP Damian Drum’s
    Call to seal off regional Victoria from Melbourne until the virus is eliminated in Melbourne.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-18/live-blog-coronavirus-news-australia-victoria-melbourne/12468636

    I used to live in regional Victoria and still have friends there.
    Such a move would be welcome by them.

    Maybe even Annie here on the blog will agree with me on this

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  • #
    Cameron J

    Jo, the simple fact that there has been a second spike of this magnitude proves the virus was nowhere near eliminated. The lockdown was always about flattening the curve, not eliminating the virus. Your posts and you have turned into an absolute joke. Goodbye.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Morning Cam …

      The second spike came about because illegals were failing to get tested, for obvious reasons, then we have the new immigrants who are wilfully ignorant and unAustralian, people going to work with symptoms because they can’t afford not to.

      We can build a Covid free bubble in the Southern Hemisphere, which is essential to our security because it was most likely manufactured in the Wuhan Institute.

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    • #
      Brenda Spence

      It was brought in by overseas travellers!

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      • #
        Plain Jane

        I think it should be called the Aeroplane Virus 19, because if it was not for international flights the virus would not have spread. Have a look at how many cases are STILL being brought into Australia daily and found in quarantine. if we called it the Aeroplane Virus-19 it might give some stupid politicians the suggestion that they stop bringing it in. Plane flights are not a human right. The world wont stop if planes do. Freight flights can continue. Ships give a chance to quarantine people on the ships. Dont like that – dont get on a ship.Vic problems still came off planes and were stuffed up with non-quarantine quarantine. How about people who want to come in arrive at an outback airstrip and quarantine in dongas a long way from population centres, it isnt like we dont have the landmass or spare mining camps.

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  • #
    Serp

    Federal parliament is to adjourn so as to cut off the inflow of people from Victoria; this may give the government time to draft the ghastly immunity passports legislation that is intrinsic to the catalogue and control regimen we are being ushered towards.

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  • #
    yarpos

    1000 ICU beds in VIC , 31 in use

    oddly for all the hysteria and VIC finger pointing more people have actually died of Covid in NSW

    while a 100 people have died of or with Covid 600 have died on the roads, even with them being quieter

    its an odd world we live in, be safe out there

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    • #
      Brenda Spence

      ICU beds and patients on ventilators are labour intensive, they need extra staff. Think about these nurses and doctors who have to wear all that protective gear all day to avoid getting infected themselves.
      Lots of medical staff overseas have died and these are not seniors.

      Elimination is the best strategy. People havent got a clue about working at the coal face!
      (Retired microbiologist)

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      • #

        yarpos, the current ICU tally is nothing compared to what is coming.

        It relates to the infection tally one week ago. The hospitals can see the wave on the way …

        Good to hear from you Brenda. :- )

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      • #
        TedM

        And think about the 300 medical staff in the UK that have died from this thing. And they were not all old people.

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      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        It is a fairly straightforward exercise to increase the number of ICU beds.

        But where on this earth are you going to find the people to staff them? Especially as the disease itself takes some of them out of the job.

        It is easy to imagine a situation where we have to find our own ICU carers. For this facilities would have to follow a very different model. Double up the hardware and put wheels on it. That includes training.

        20

  • #
    MudCrab

    …31 in ICU… About two-thirds in the ICU are on ventilators.

    Victorian hospitals are struggling with the load already, and half of all urgent elective surgery is being delayed in public hospitals. About a quarter of urgent elective surgery is being put off even in private hospitals in Melbourne.

    Before the pandemic Victoria had 476 ICU beds. Currently there are 1,000 ICU beds available and ready to go for Covid patients.

    Yes…

    Quite…

    Struggling, at 3% ICU capacity.

    20 ventilators in use. Who was it who earlier claimed that it was a ‘no brainer’ to have Australian industry convert to making nothing but ventilators and masks? Also, what good does a ventilator (we are talking about the handful actually in use, not the thousands gathering dust) do to ELIMINATE the virus. Ventilators, occasionally, help treat the virus. Can’t treat something you have eliminated, so a call to increase ventilator numbers could also be seen as an admittance that the virus was going to spread and elimination was never on the table.

    Remember kids, hospitals exist to help protect the public’s health. The public does not exist to ensure the continued existence of the medical system. If you have to burn the entire hospital system to the ground to save lives, you should totally be doing that. If a hospital is not at literal breaking point you are not in a medical emergency. Hospitals can be rebuilt.

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    A collection worth saving.

    “There is a propaganda war happening.
    Initiated by ignorant & uninformed persons on this blog.
    The campaign is an attempt to make Australia go down
    The disasterous path USA & UK are taking.
    It is my duty here to pop their misinformation propaganda balloons.

    Stupidity abounds in the god ole USA nowadays.
    Both at the level of virus testing
    And at the political levels with blind will full ignorance in both major parties.
    _______

    Get your facts right David :
    It seems that that democratic choice by the people
    Gets up your nose a bit !

    _________
    I think it is remarkable how many people
    On this blog do NOT like facts.
    This is indicated by their red thumbies.
    Dummy spits from
    Kiddies Infected with PDS !
    But the facts won’t go away Kiddos.
    Best get used to ‘em !
    _______________

    A great set of examples of informed debate.

    Amazing

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      The immoderation above is no longer.
      The comment has been “suppressed” as in the post heading.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        A small fragment might get through.

        “Yesterday I finally found a comment of yours (BIOz) that wasn’t speaking down to or rubbishing someone.
        Excellent.”

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        • #

          Moderation of some aggressive commenters has improved the discussion today (apart from one who is now moderated too).

          I’m pleased to see more informed people commenting and discussion back and forwards.

          Which “Facts” are you talking about KK?

          The Democratic choice in this virus battle is utterly remarkable. There is 90% approval for elimination and closing borders.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Hi Jo,

      Thanks for the response to the “moderated” comment.

      The comment about “facts” was a Bill in Oz comment, so best check with him.

      One “detail” which seems to be overlooked is that very few people, worldwide, under the age of fifty seem to suffer serious consequences from the Virus.

      This detail, amongst others, could provide the basis for a better form of virus containment.

      The current M/O of ” lockdown ” seems to be causing greater total grief than the actual disease.

      After the past forty years of watching politics I am not reassured that politicians know what they are doing regarding the Virus. A few days ago there was a comment that in the U.S., Anthony Fauci had not spoken to his leader in six weeks.

      Time is a tickin and who knows where we’ll be next week.

      KK

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        OriginalSteve

        I think we basically need to allow a slow burn through the country but protect the 70+ age bracket carefully.

        Its tgat ir play this infernal stupid attempt at suppression forever….thats a game that quite frankly we are proving twice now, we cant win.

        However – if we look at the current variant if tge virus in Australia now, one Italian senior doctor has basically said its not an ussue any more. That “Cell” paor I posted a few times says its the same variant here as in Italy.

        Andrews et al are running either a masterful dog and pony scare show to create a medical police state, or are truly ignorant. I suspect they arent ignorant , so this suits them. Most govts are hopelessly risk averse so maybe they have just stuffed it but cant admit it.

        Either way, time for some real grown up descisions, and stop farnarkling about playing a macarbe game of hunt the sausage with peoples liberties. Its that or the citizenry will start forcing them to act.

        Time is ticking down…

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  • #
    Another Ian

    HEADS UP! O/T but

    “Websites Crash Worldwide as Cloudflare Suffers Outage”

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/07/17/websites-crash-worldwide-as-cloudflare-suffers-outage/#

    Looks like might be wider

    30

  • #
    RickWill

    There is no doubt the E a-F gatherings was the key to the rapid spread of the current outbreak in Victoria. That is clear by the initial increase of hospitalisations in the current outbreak. You will not hear that from the PC because it brings in the M-word.

    The medical advice is that it takes 5 days of infection to get to obvious symptoms if they are going to develop. After 10 days they are recovering or starting to get serious.

    There is no doubt the pre-lockdown gatherings in Victoria contributed to the current surge. Today is day 10 of the present lockdown in Victoria. We should see the cases dropping away because the last partying was 10 days ago.

    Basically there are three different pandemic response strategies at play:
    1. Close borders before any community spread and quarantine any incoming – contact trace fast and effectively if any case gets through the net. (Taiwan approach)
    2. Close borders after there is community spread and prevent gatherings of any type (lockdowns). Contact trace any community spread. Lock down again if community spread gets out of hand. (Australia)
    3. Let death toll mount until everyone knows someone who has died or been badly affected by the virus and they all institute their own quarantine (Sweden and USA). The threshold appears to be around 500 deaths per million – US is approaching that now.

    Going by the number of business insolvencies, the Swedish and US approaches are the most economic damaging:
    https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/bankruptcies
    https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/bankruptcies
    https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/bankruptcies
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies

    Triage decisions are already being made in Victorian hospitals. The case load in Victorian hospitals has already skyrocketed with only 2000 confirmed infections in the current surge.

    Today USA had 77k confirmed infections. Daily death toll again above 1000.

    This gives an idea of the alternative to lockdown:
    https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/chilling-new-phase-as-us-morgues-fill-up/4059726/

    A chilling new phase has been reached in coronavirus-racked US states as morgues run out of space for bodies, forcing them to order in refrigeration trucks to cope with the overwhelming death toll.

    There is no sensible argument against lockdowns and virus elimination. Trying to justify any alternative demonstrates zero consideration for the people working in health care pursuits and those dealing with the bodies.

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  • #
    Farmer Gez

    We can’t even keep the virus out of aged care homes and hospitals let alone eradicate it.
    The chance was there but instead of removing positives to isolation, we allowed them to isolate at home and infect their entire family.

    Trade and travel make the eradication plan a pipe dream. How long could you be an island in a world where we need to trade goods and services for mutual benefit?

    You’ve been a great defender of science and empirical data in the global warming wars Jo, but this is not one you can win. People will behave badly and you couldn’t effectively police a total lockdown. Unfortunately the police themselves are already being identified as possible carriers.

    Treat the sick, protect the elderly and hope like hell that the combined genius of mankind will deliver a vaccine.

    30

    • #
      RickWill

      You make it sound much harder than it is. It is easy. ALL the large outbreaks around the world are related to large gatherings. Stop large gatherings and the virus is dead. It runs out of hosts.

      The current situation in Victoria is simple the result of the E a-F celebrations in a community that had acquired the virus from quarantined travellers.

      There would be no issue if there had been no uncontrolled religious celebrations the day Victoria came out of lock down.

      All the cases now in the NSW community can be traced to a single hotel where lots of people gathered once lockdowns were eased.

      There were many warnings about BLM protests in the US causing surge in cases. Then warnings about the Memorial Day and Independence Day celebrations causing surges – the result:
      http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United%20States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily&data-source=merged&xaxis=left#countries
      Moonshot to the stars! Deaths are just now rising above 1000/day but it will exceed 2000/day very soon.

      The lowest cost option in the privileged countries is to impose lockdowns. The cost in human and economic terms to educate self-important individuals in the difference between “want” and “need” is too much when it comes to CV19. It appears USA will pay that price though. Latest forecast is 224k dead by 1 Nov. Business insolvency rising fast:
      https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies

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    • #
      el gordo

      We only need to eliminate the virus in NZ and Oz to become a Covid Free Zone, eradication is not in our brief.

      ‘Eradication is the reduction of an infectious disease’s prevalence in the global host population to zero. It is sometimes confused with elimination, which describes either the reduction of an infectious disease’s prevalence in a regional population to zero, or the reduction of the global prevalence to a negligible amount.’ wiki

      Herd Immunity is part of the old world order, Australia and New Zealand can eliminate Covid and the Flu.

      32

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Increase your vitamin D levels, and make it a community-wide effort, with zinc.
      See #8 above:
      http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/go-on-just-eliminate-it-supression-is-for-people-who-love-lockdowns/#comment-2348223
      Cheers
      Dave B

      40

    • #

      You’ve been a great defender of science and empirical data in the global warming wars Jo, but this is not one you can win

      You may be right Farmer Gez that I am optimistic that just because Elimination and border control is obvious and smart it may yet still fail due to incompetence.

      So should I just accept that incompetence or keep pointing out the obvious costs of the Swamp corruption, Corporate profit, and incompetence?

      I remain baffled by the number of commenters who argue that incompetent management is a useful reason to aim for economic failure, deaths and disease.

      84

    • #
      TedM

      Have you actually looked at and digested the information in the map in Jo’s post FG.

      23

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Looks like the figures are being vastly inflated.

    e.g. Motorcycle Crash Victim in Florida was listed as a coronavirus fatality.

    70

  • #
    Anthony Innes

    A disease so deadly you need to be tested to know youve got it?

    81

  • #
    george1st:)

    Suppression done correctly in any given affected area is the only way to elimination and eradication in that area .
    The virus is only spread from human movement .
    All or any travellers must be tested and quarantined between other areas .
    We have the capability to do this , any outbreaks should be shut down immediately .
    Eventually it would be brought under control .
    Just test all that we can and stop the spread .
    Still trying further to protect the vulnerable also .

    71

  • #
    Peter C

    Victorian hospitals are struggling with the load already, and half of all urgent elective surgery is being delayed in public hospitals. About a quarter of urgent elective surgery is being put off even in private hospitals in Melbourne.

    Before the pandemic Victoria had 476 ICU beds. Currently there are 1,000 ICU beds available and ready to go for Covid patients.

    Really?
    Are Victoria’s hospital actually struggling with the load, or are they slowing down in anticipation of some future event?

    It is true that Private hospitals have been asked to cut back to 75% elective surgery.
    But according to Victoria’s Chief Medical Officer today;


    “Professor Sutton announced this afternoon that there are 110 people in hospital because of coronavirus.

    25 people in intensive care, with 18 patients on ventilators.”

    All of these numbers are less than yesterday.

    70

    • #

      Exponential curve. One week delay. Do the numbers.

      What if Stage 3 isn’t enough? What’s coming next week?

      56

      • #
        PeterS

        Enough for what? Don’t you get it yet Jo? Lockdowns won’t work unless you keep them in place long enough for the virus to be eliminated across the whole world, which probably won’t happen anyway unless it mutates itself out.

        30

        • #

          “Lockdowns won’t work unless you keep them in place” Logic backward, twisted and wrong.
          Lockdowns work quickly to protect those outside the lockdown area. Canberra does not have a problem because of the lockdowns elsewhere. Once the short lockdown has done its job and the spread is stopped, border restrictions are only required from areas and or countries that refuse to clean up but would rather live in a mess of death and sickness.
          Australia could have eradicated this months ago and no longer been part of that insane problem.

          10

          • #
            PeterS

            True, Lockdowns work quickly to protect those outside the lockdown area. However, my point is lockdowns period won’t work for mankind unless the aim is to destroy economies and societies. Get it?

            00

            • #
              el gordo

              ‘Get it?’

              We only have to eliminate the virus in Australia and if economic conditions sour then we are no worse off than the rest of the world, but I’m more optimistic because our quarry is operating at full capacity.

              21

              • #
                PeterS

                Australia isn’t and can never be totally isolated from the rest of the world. Anyone who thinks we are or can be is dreaming.

                11

              • #

                By crikey PeterS:

                “, Lockdowns work quickly to protect those outside the lockdown area. However, my point is lockdowns period won’t work for mankind unless the aim is to destroy economies and societies. Get it?”

                This is a science blog. What have “aims” got to do with anything. Get it?

                Only the data matters. I always thought skeptics believed in observations not motivations?

                PS: Peter, 99 posts and we are still circling the same drain. Why does the virus have to disappear from the whole world for elimination here to save our economy and our lives?

                When did international holidays become an essential ingredient for life?

                20

      • #
        Peter C

        It may have been exponential for a few days but the Chief Heath officer in Vic thought the figures were linear yesterday.
        Stage three is starting to work today. People were near panic but Dr Brett Sutton asked for a few more days.

        I think there is a way through this.

        A general lock down (Stage 3) can slow the whole spread but so far Victoria has been utterly unable to actually concentrate on sequestering real known infections. That is the real failure in IMHO.

        20

  • #
    MP

    Is Bill logic the same as Clayton logic.
    The logic you have when you haven’t got logic.

    53

  • #
    • #

      So who stands to gain from making the virus look less lethal? How that went down so far as i know were the test results were not all counted. Only the positives. This could give many the false idea that there is not much risk of getting seriously ill.

      30

      • #
        Rob Kennedy

        No Silliggy, the question is “who stands to gain from making the virus look more lethal?” There is a Presidential Election in November – all assets deployed to stop orange man bad.

        91

        • #

          “who stands to gain from making the virus look more lethal?” A high positivity rate with a real but then seemingly lower mortality makes it look less lethal. Think about it. The false picture that you don’t need to avoid it lures Trump voters to their deaths. The growing disaster that results causes a swing to whoever appears to have taken the disease seriously.

          00

        • #

          Rob Kennedy
          Do you not understand that it is the negative tests that are not being counted? Thus the number of active cases is real and going up fast but the number of tests done is not real making the positivity rate too high AND the mortality rate too low.

          10

          • #
            Rob Kennedy

            I get your point. Originally death rates were inflated to scare everyone and make Trump look bad. Now they are reporting 90% plus positives in Florida, for example and in Collins County, Texas using a computer model to multiply positives by 17 times. What is scarier? Huge increase in deaths or even bigger number of “cases?”
            Here in Oz we would have no news about Covid19 if only deaths were reported (and the ages of victims) so “cases” are important to keep the narrative on the boil.
            I think I saw a news item where there was a state in the USA that mandated mask-wearing and it had only five active “cases.”
            https://northerntruthseeker.blogspot.com/ in Manitoba, Canada relates how this province has gone completely full on with keeping everyone safe, but there isn’t a problem there.

            10

            • #

              Rob, no one is scared of five deaths. It’s the exponential growth that is terrifying.

              In March only a few fools in Brazil thought that a few deaths were fine. For most of us it was blinding obvious where that would go if they didn’t isolate and quarantine.

              Exponential growth means smart people plan ahead because once the death rate is awful, it’s too late.

              [Edited. Don't know what happened to the spelling. - jo]

              10

  • #
    Peter C

    ITS TOO LATE,

    We used to be so happy living here in Coolaroo
    Life was nice and breezy and we knew just what to do
    Now we are so unhappy and I feel like a mule.

    But its too late Baby now its too late
    though we really did try to break it
    Communist Dan has lied
    Now we can’t hide
    and we just have to take it.

    90

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    This is worth posting again.

    Jo – noted about those of aged under 50 affected.

    ——————————–

    https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/07/coronavirus-covid-19-guide-for-general-practitioners-to-inform-shared-decision-making-with-patients-around-risk-of-severe-illness-related-to-covid-19.pdf

    “Hazard Ratios for in hospital COVID-19 death [4]

    “Age (years) Increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio)
    “50-59 1.0 (reference group)
    “60-69 x 2.09 (1.84 -2.38)
    “70-79 x 4.77 (4.23 -5.38)
    “Over 80 x 12.64 (11.19 –14.28)

    “A hazard ratio above one, such as 2.0, equates to 2.0 times higher risk compared to baseline.
    ————————

    “Co-morbidities and other issuesWhile age is the factor most strongly associated with risk of severe COVID-19 illness, many chronic conditions appear to increase risk. [2, 4] In some studies male gender has been shown to increase risk. [4] Data from the UK also found that poverty was an independent risk factor not explained by co-morbidity or other risk factors. [4] First Nations peoples are thought to be at higher risk in public health emergencies. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples may be at increased risk of severe disease and should be considered a priority population when assessing potential risk related to COVID-19

    “Chronic heart disease 1.27 (1.20 –1.35)
    “Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis 1.23 (1.12 – 1.35)
    “Controlled diabetes (HbA1c<58mmol/mol)(vs none) 1.50 (1.40 – 1.60)
    "Non-haematological cancer (<12mths) (vs none) 1.56 (1.26 – 1.89)
    "Liver disease 1.61 (1.33 – 1.95)
    "Other immunosuppressive condition 1.69 (1.21 – 2.34)
    "Kidney disease 1.78 (1.67 – 1.90)
    "Respiratory disease (excluding asthma) 1.79 (1.79 – 1.93)
    "Stroke/dementia 2.27 (1.99 – 2.58)
    "Obesity Class III (≥40 kg/m 2) (vs none)
    "Uncontrolled diabetes (HbA1c≥58mmol/mol)(vs none) 2.36 (2.18 – 2.56)
    "Haematological malignancy (vs none)
    Diagnosed 1-4.9 years ago 3.12 (2.50 – 3.89)
    Diagnosed < 1 year ago 3.52 (2.41 – 5.14)
    "Organ transplant 4.27 (3.20 –5.70)

    "Risk appears to increase with the number of comorbid conditions. The proportion of COVID-19 cases who reported one or more comorbid conditions increased with the level of care required, with 76% of ventilated cases reporting comorbid conditions. [5]Condition (see list below) Increased risk of (95% confidence intervals) [5]

    "No co-morbidities 1.0 (reference group)
    "One chronic condition 1.8 (1.16 –2.77)
    "Two or more chronic conditions 2.6 (1.61 –4.17)

    30

    • #

      As I replied to you last time. Australian deaths are so low as to be barely worth studying.

      Look at Euromomo. They had so many deaths, and the excess is the same in every age group above 16 years.

      Risk of death doubles at every age.

      Should we just accept the small number of deaths of 20 year olds? Why? Their deaths are so much worse in terms of life years and productively lost.

      75

      • #
        MrGrimNasty

        “They had so many deaths, and the excess is the same in every age group above 16 years.”

        That is an egregious misrepresentation/exaggeration (15-44 years are all one grouping in that data and have a tiny number of excess deaths).

        “Should we just accept the small number of deaths of 20 year olds?”

        e.g. USA Texas (I only picked that because I looked up the data already for something else) Pediatric deaths – CV19 :ZERO, Flu 2019/20 : 15

        So what are you going to do about flu?

        The data shows conclusively that CV19 represents near zero risk of death to anyone not already ill and/or old.

        Eliminating the virus through intervention is not possible globally, locally it is pointless because you are then trapped with no way forward. Never ending lockdowns/measures are not a solution. The only solution is to let the virus do it’s thing, which it is going to do regardless. Accept the weakest 0.5% of the population is going to die fast, or far more will die slow. (Given the recent near confirmation that immunity is very short lived and reinfection is possible, accepting this is now urgent).

        30

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Yup…slow, controlled burn…..note the *controlled* bit….

          Every attempt to control it through draconian lockdowns fails. By all means keep international borders shut or tightly controlled, but beyond that?

          If we exceed 334 deaths in Victoriastan , we will exceed last years official death from flu.

          Prediction…the US after the election will have a military crack at China over this thing. The american leadership from what ive seen is spitting chips, dedpite that fact some rogue e elements may have funded gain of function research ( i.e. outsource the bad stuff to a fall guy). I know which specific impish miscreant Id get arrested and sent to Guantanamo first….

          30

  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    More corona history coming out

    “State Dept. Cables Warned of China’s Wuhan Lab Two Years Ago: ‘Serious Shortage’ of Trained Staff”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/17/state-dept-cables-warned-of-chinas-wuhan-lab-two-years-ago-serious-shortage-of-trained-staff/

    10

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      How convenient….

      I am thinking there may have been a chain of “plausibly deniable” incidents that appear to have created the perfect conditions for this…

      Just sayin’….

      20

  • #
    Another Ian

    Posted in full because WUWT has to change platforms and “comments here may not be transferred”

    ” William Astley
    July 17, 2020 at 8:04 pm

    Here is some good covid treatment news.

    This is a new medical technology that was used to defeat the deadly Ebola virus and if it works, as it did for Ebola will stop the covid problem.

    Those infected with covid, would get a single injection of an artificial antibody, as soon as possible in the virus’s progression.

    The artificial produced antibodies attack the virus in the patient, leaving them almost virus free in 48 hours. If the treatment is done early, as soon as covid is detected, damage will be limited.

    Regeneron, the leading company in the new field has received a $500 million dollars speed up money from the US and have moved onto Phase 3 trials of their new artificial antibody.

    This is an artificial antibody, not a vaccine. It only provides protection while the injected antibody is in the person system. The injection would provide the person injected, with roughly 4 weeks of immunity to covid.

    There are three other antibody designing companies that are working with the US Military, to develop covid artificial antibodies.

    I believe all have had very good success with phase 1 and 2 trials. This is great news as it proves the technology is solid.

    https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-announces-start-regn-cov2-phase-3-covid-19-prevention

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html

    Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3036780

    30

  • #
    Crakar24

    A new study suggests people exposed to a corona virus in the past and develop an immunity by recognising a part of the virus which is common to all types (ORF-1 for eg) will not be affected by covid 19 those who develop immunity to an uncommon part of the virus get sick

    10

  • #
    TdeF

    Victoria has dropped from 428 new cases yesterday, to 217 today.

    I am hoping that the suburban lockdown and fierce testing has located a lot of the cases in a hurry. Many presumably in family and friend and coworker groups. Plus a lot of medical staff. And of course the 160 at the largest Isl*mic school in Victoria including 20 staff. And their suburbs. So it’s pretty clear which section of the community ignored everything, including shutting down for the big family feast of the Eid on the 24th of May. That’s why Cedar meats had to stay open, tell no one and even double their staff.

    So that aside, the whole idea of elimination is to isolate those people already infected and those coming in continually from overseas, mainly to Melbourne and Sydney. The failure to do so was appalling.

    Lockdown was not enough, as it was already in families and you cannot isolate people in a house, so everyone will get it. That explains why two weeks was not enough, but four weeks may see a dramatic drop in cases, more than 2:1 between yesterday and today.

    Then we wait another two weeks.

    53

  • #
    TdeF

    A bit of viral humour.

    Sweden is the sick man of Northern Europe. So Finland has closed the border. It seems no one can get over the Finnish line.

    I could tell you about the novel Corona virus, but it’s a long story.

    WHO has announced that dogs cannot spread the infection, so they are free to leave the area. WHO let the dogs out! Woof. Woof. Woof.

    There will be a baby boom in 9 months, and then in 2033, we will see the first quaranteens.

    And you could hear a Corona joke today, but you’ll have to wait two weeks to see if you get it.

    In fact there are so many bad jokes out there, it’s a pundemic.

    114

    • #
      TdeF

      And then there’s all the panic buying in Europe.

      In Germany it’s sausage and cheese. Experts say it’s the Wurst Kase scenario.

      And in France they have emptied the stores. All that’s left is de Brie.

      103

      • #
        TdeF

        And in Australia there was another terrible run on the toilet paper.

        On a roll yet?

        Besides, it’s Corona, not Cholera. I suspect a Chinese/English dictionary which needs correction.

        22

  • #
    TdeF

    To keep things in perspective, in the UK the total deaths have passed 45,000 against our 118. Elimination works! Who can doubt it? It’s unbelievably tragic, the soldier on approach.

    Still in Sweden there are now 5,619 deaths at 40% of our population and there are still journalists and ‘experts’ arguing that we should adopt their approach which on those numbers would 15,000 Australians dead by now. For what purpose? They were going to reach their mythical ‘herd immunity’ a month ago.

    Mutation will end this thing. The fast tests being pushed now are antibody tests, which is after the horse has bolted.

    What would make a difference is a very fast test for infection, not one which takes days. One person I know in emergency care had their result back in 12 hours. The faster the test, the faster large populations can be cleared and the infected people isolated, like Housing Commission high rises in Melbourne. Otherwise the infections must continue through the building and through families.

    At least now they are emptying aged care homes and isolating the people most at risk in real lock down environments. It was the same with the Ruby Princess, the problem just kept getting worse until they brought in food prepared outside. And ultimately removed everyone from that closed environment, especially the lower staff decks with no windows.

    I will be waiting for the announcement tomorrow in Melbourne. And the later it is, the worse the news.

    62

    • #
      TdeF

      And I am so heartily sick of business commentators asking us to put ‘the economy’ first. We Commonwealth citizens didn’t do that in WW2. And we were invited to join the Third Reich by that nice man Adolph. Again the fight is to save lives, not the ‘economy’. And life was really tough for at least ten years. Blackouts, martial law, rations, the Blitz. Australians used to be tougher in a crisis. The Brits are still doing it tough in this battle.

      The real economy which brings in all our hard currency and allows us to buy everything from electronics to cars is actually going very well. The internal economy in the big cities, not so much. Actually some areas are good like steel, where with the doors closed to China and China travel, Australian businesses are buying Australian made steel.

      It would be going much better except that we have made manufacturing impossible with the world’s highest electricity prices. And all manufacturing runs on electricity. But we are doing our bit to shut down our economy to help save the world? So the good news is that with no manufacturing, we do not have to shut assembly lines at Holden and Ford and aircraft manufacture and electronics and smelting and petrochemicals because they are either shut already or on cash support from the government, which is us. So they just go home.

      The really good part of all this is that it has focused world attention on the fact that there are far worse things than a 50% increase in a trace gas over 100 years. And it would be nice if we could go back to our old electricity prices and start to make things ourselves again. After all, 90% of the electricity is still coal from those old power stations built by the older generation. And everyone must wonder where all the cash goes? Profiteering. Like all Green energy, even according to Michael Moore.

      63

  • #
    neil

    Elimination is not plausible, even if we achieve it in Aus and we open boarders and create a pacific bubble. What then? we wait it out hoping for a cure or a vaccine which could take decades, we have been fighting corona viruses for two hundred years and have never achieved either. So we never open up to the rest of the world again?

    The best model we have for China virus is Spanish flu, it started out as a deadly pandemic and mutated into an unpleasant annoyance for most of us killing less than 1 in a 1000. This is what will happen with CV, it makes no evolutionary sense for a virus to kill it’s host, so the more virulent strains will die with their hosts and the mild mutations will be with us forever, just like all the other corona viruses.

    31

    • #
      TdeF

      Elimination is completely plausible. We would be there now if not for Daniel Andrews and friends. New Zealand is there now.

      Evolution only requires that the virus replicates. What happens to the host after that point is irrelevant in most cases, except perhaps as a continuing source of infection. Weeks in this case.

      The downside of killing quickly is only that people react and isolate quickly, minimizing or even eliminating a chance for even more exposure and reproduction.

      Consider the case of ebola where killing of the host is the mechanism because it brings the funeral where in many African traditions, touching means everyone else is infected.

      Viruses have zero intelligence, but selection optimizes the strain for this way of infection and the fastest and greatest amount of infection.

      The virus is a complex chemical and simply the mechanism which gives the greatest replication rate is the one which wins. It’s a numbers game. No morality. And the host is irrelevant except as a vector. Also mutation adapts the virus by selection to the most successful mechanism with the largest and most vulnerable target group.

      Ultimately a benign but highly infectious strain wins and is not stopped and infects the whole population. That is herd immunity. However other waves of even more deadly mutations may come first, as was the case in 1918 where 90% of those killed in the first wave were fit men between 20 and 50. The second wave however killed in 24 hours and killed everyone. Ultimately twice as many as the first. So it made sense for the Spanish Flu.

      The future is a combination of a benign virus, an innoculation (endless), rapid testing and control of points of entry. Professional control, not business friends or political friends of politicians.

      And no one is traveling until this is sorted. Which is usually 2-3 years.

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      • #
        neil

        I think we are basically on the same page, when I said elimination is implausible I meant globally.

        You are absolutely correct about Chairman Dan. When the Hotel isolation began the federal gov offeredADF personnel for security Andrews accepted but then the ACTU demanded unemployed union members be employed instead. Then after the hotel outbreak Andrews accepted the federal offer of 1000 ADF personnel but again his union masters intervened and one day later the offer was rejected as they demanded Qantas staff were to be used. And the outbreak continues courtesy of ictorian Labor and the Union movement.

        30

  • #
    PeterS

    For elimination to be possible it first has to be eliminated from the world. Good luck with that. Only time will tell if the virus mutates to something less harmful if not totally harmless. Of course it could go the other way and be far worse. Let’s hope not. If anyone has a crystal ball that really works please share it. Otherwise, stop the speculation and get on with life as best we can.

    20

    • #
      TdeF

      As in my comment above about the Spanish flu. What we have in Victoria is NOT a second wave. It is the first wave, the same virus. Total incompetence would be the kindest view, like the Ruby Princess.

      12

      • #

        PEterS.

        “For elimination to be possible it first has to be eliminated from the world. ”

        It’s like repeating this false sentence is some kind of talisman for you?

        25% of the population died in Western Samoa, but no one did in American Samoa in 1918. Shame the Western Samoans didn’t realize that local elimination was 100% effective and that it was only viruses in their own land, not foreign ones, that killed people.

        20

        • #
          neil

          How many Jumbos were fling into American Samoa in 1918?

          00

          • #

            neil, how many jumbo’s does Australia need for food water and 97% of income?

            Ans: it’s a trick question. We don’t need any at all since we spend 2 x what we recieve in tourism dollars.

            c’mon Neil — quarantine works the same way whether or not it’s by air or by sea.

            00

  • #
    Michael

    Victorian hospitals ‘struggling’ with 110 cases right now (according to the Department of Health)?

    I thought you knew about hysterical alarmism Jo.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Dramatic news from the US on the origins of Wuhan Flu. Obtained on an FOI, it seems the US embassy in Wuhan warned that the new Wuhan laboratory which opened in 2018 had a shortage of trained staff to deal with the highly dangerous viruses with which they were experimenting.

    “A cable sent from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing on January 19, 2018, notified Washington that China had opened the Wuhan Institute of Virology, its first Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) laboratory, and that the lab’s leadership considered it ready for research on class-four pathogens (P4) — the most virulent viruses that pose a high risk of person-to-person transmission.”

    “However, the cable warned there was a “serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory.” It also noted “a lack of clarity in related Chinese government policies and guidelines,” and that China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) had not given the lab permission to initiate research on highly contagious pathogens.

    Despite these limitations, the lab was able to undertake productive research on SARS-like coronaviruses, the cable said.

    It cited a five-year study that found that SARS-like coronaviruses isolated from horseshoe bats in a single cave contain all the building blocks of the pandemic SARS-coronavirus genome that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak. The study also found that the SARS-like coronaviruses in bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like disease.”

    Wow.

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  • #
    Peter C

    Elimination can lead to eradication!

    21

  • #
    TdeF

    As with smallpox.

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  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Do I trust…
    Seeing restaurants still reusing dishes and utensils the same as before and trust they are virus free?
    How about cities that recycle their water?
    They are already finding medications in the water supply from people disposing it by the toilet. So, what is the difference of this virus could be in the water too.
    China has ordered Canada to test their lobsters for transmission by labourers.
    Watch out for elevator cooties!

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    • #
      neil

      The filters used in water recycling work on an atomic level a virus getting through the filter would be like a basketball passing through a fly screen.

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  • #
    Robber

    Excluding that one day blip of 428 new cases, Victoria has had a week of new cases in the range 217-274, so hopefully the curve is flattening, and no longer doubling every five days.
    Professor Sutton, the CHO, expressed his “relief” at yesterday’s 217 result – he knew that another day of 400+ cases would require more lockdowns. So we will wait and see what the next few days bring. On July 11 some modelling reported in the Australian had case numbers at 500 per day by July 16 and 750 by July 19, so that exponential growth model has been broken.
    A week ago DHSS reported 49 cases in hospital with 15 in intensive care. Yesterday those numbers werere 110 and 25 with 3 deaths, last week 1 death. The growth in those numbers generally lags the new cases by about two weeks.

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  • #
    MadJak

    Good Call,

    Go hard or give up. These are the options. It’s brutal but simple. Whilst an Eradication approach will not eradicate NCOVID-19 in the fullest sense of the word, It will do a better job of suppressing the outbreaks and will reduce the devastating impact prolonged repeated lockdowns have not only on the medical workers, but also the people who are dying as a result of the focus on NCOVID-19 which is required. As an example, the Death rate for Autistic people in the UK has doubled since February.

    Likewise, just as with other major pandemics, there are many people who are simply incapable of being able to extrapolate information effectively. For some people, NCOVID19 will not be real until someone close to them gets a bad dose – by which time, they have probably royally done in their own community.

    In Victoria we need stage 4 lockdowns ASAP – every day delaying must be resulting in more days lockdown – even if it’s just so people can understand what Stage 4 is like (I suspect this will be happening in the next few days according to some of my sources). I just hope the army’s logistics people aren’t assuming the metro rail network will run on time ;) .

    We also need clear numbers and conditions for what will trigger each stage of the lockdown – say 50 cases per day per one million people with >50% community transmission = next stage of lockdown. Make the criteria objective and clear.

    It’s good to see the pickup on Vitamin D – I suspect its probably one of the reasons why outbreaks seem to be devastating darker skinned people and in urban centres (which don’t get as much sun). Yes, it’s correlation, but at this stage we have little else to go on.

    Isn’t it fascinating to see how human behaviour has not changed since the plagues? The only difference I see now is that instead of burning witches, people are burning 5G towers.

    Personally, whilst I am deeply concerned about the impacts socially in the short term, pandemics do have a habit of providing a health check report on societies and it’s clear that some social structures in some countries are getting a big fat Fail grade. The sustained pressure pandemics put on societies has a nasty habit of bringing forward the hard issues which people keep getting distracted from solving and ensuring the pressure for real change is sustained. It’s not the best time to be one of these super wealthy people who have added >23% to their net worth since march ( an ominous indication is the protesters who built a guillotine outside Jeff Bezos’ house the other week). It’s not going to be a good time to be in a Romanov bubble.

    20

    • #

      Thanks Madjak. Thanks Robber. Thanks TdeF. :-)

      Re Stage 4. I fear that Vic will not stop this virus as easily now as it did in April. Low Vit D, low temperatures, and more community spread.

      I hope masks help.

      20

  • #
    Ivor Surveyor

    Consider the model of smallpox, a highly infectious disease that has plagued human societies from the days of the pharaohs.
    Like Measles it is a disease of crowds. Small isolated communities could not sustain a virus that is passed by direct contact (airborne).
    Before vaccination the mortality was about 30%. There would have been minor and even symptomless cases. So local community immunity would build up and the disease disappear. But since there was a pool of cases outside of a community and as the number of immune people fell the disease would reappear. Trade and mixing of peoples, war and so on would favour introduction of disease to a community with a low rate of herd immunity.
    Vaccination with smallpox discharge from pustules was introduced. Famously Lady Mary Wortley Montagu in 1717 had her infant son so inoculated with good results. This practice known as variolation was accepted as it reduced overall mortality to about 10%.
    Edward Jenner is credited with substituting the related disease cowpox. He vaccinated 23 subjects with the cowpox virus. A few weeks later there was none or mild reaction to subsequent inoculation with smallpox.
    Two hundred years latter WHO declared the world smallpox free.
    Successful eradication demands two conditions:
    !. An efficient vaccine
    2. Universal political support.

    Poliomyelitis for instance fills the first condition, but because of anti-vaccination movements the disease still exists in some parts of the world.
    In the case of Covid -19 there is to date no vaccine and a plethora of political opinion.

    10

    • #
      Slithers

      There is the slight problem with the BillG polio vaccine, it uses live virus and BillG got kicked out of India because too many CHILDREN were being maimed by the reaction to the vaccination.
      The sugar cube vaccine worked well but costs so little so no money in making a few billion doses!

      10

  • #
    Kevin a

    Has every one seen the Tony Heller videos?
    No Correlation Is Causation.
    Sweden herd immunity worked.
    @ 7:50 Anthony Fauci says NO to masks
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgJ8_K6WCiw&feature=em-uploademail

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    • #

      Define “worked”?

      Define herd immunity. The antibody studies don’t show it. But I think one small T cell study suggests something different, but it is all unconfirmed.

      00

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  • #
    Stoichastic

    Is smallpox the only virus humans have ever “eradicated”?

    It took 200 years.

    We are far more technologically advanced, yet the common cold and seasonal flu continue to confound our scientists. Vaccines for flu are around 40% effective.

    I struggle to believe COVID-19 can be eradicated.

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    • #

      Think big Stoichastic. If the Flu had a 10% death rate we would have found a way to eliminate it. But — as bad as the flu is — it’s not worth the cost to get rid of it. Covid is bad enough to make it worthwhile.

      We can throw billions at Covid and still come out ahead if we cull it.

      In first world countries we rarely ever deal with Rabies, Ebola, Dengue, Cholera, Malaria. They are not eradicated globally, but we live with them by not living with them (in the rich West).

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    • #

      and it took about 20 years of actually trying.

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  • #
    Robber

    Latest Vic data 275 new cases, 7 day average 301, with daily results varying from 217 to 428. Seems to be flattening, but now 39 deaths from 5,900 total cases, with 2,912 still active.

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  • #

    I think that all countries are adapting a little, but here it is important that there is no second wave, which is still predicted for the fall.

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  • #

    On your troubles with Victoria and Melborne lockdown, I came across this last night: Sunshine Hours for Australian Cities. Note that Melbourne is down to an average of 3 hours per day for June, and Sydney then does not drop below 7 hours.

    Some of this is down to latitude, as shown on the Wikipedia page on Daylight as a function of latitude. This is particularly through latitude affecting number daylight hours by month. Also perhaps through sunlight strength varying as a function of latitude and season. However, there are undoubtedly other climate-related effects (eg why that 3 to 7 hours difference).

    If the “ultraviolet hypothesis” is correct, this could explain why Victoria and Melbourne have more Covid-19 winter problems than do NSW etc. That there is this problem is also (at least somewhat) evidential for the hypothesis being correct.

    And (lucky and/or hard-working) Tasmania really does look to have joined New Zealand with ‘elimination’: elsewhere I found Hobart has a bit more June sunlight (4+ hours per day) than Melbourne. Just hope for TAS that no-one slips through unnoticed for too long.

    Don’t forget however: UV is (if anything) only one aspect. We are learning the hard way that this virus is a really big problem. We need to fight unrelentingly on all fronts to get anywhere at all.

    Keep safe and best regards

    10

  • #
    el gordo

    Obviously if somebody has the symptoms and tests positive, but it cannot end there. Because of the incubation period of the virus, everyone who has come into contact with that individual should be tested even without symptoms. Its a process of elimination, not eradication.

    53

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