A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).



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Thursday Open Thread

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The Speech every media outlet should play in full: Watch Trump — solemn, careful, determined

This is a historic “Let’s Do This” moment. For 45 minutes Trump calmly and methodically presents the evidence of massive corruption and fraud. Anyone who doesn’t see this and relies on the Legacy and  Tech Giant filtered propaganda will be blindsided by what’s unfolding in the United States.

As Donald Trump says: “This may be the most important speech I’ve ever made….”

As President, I have no higher duty than to defend the laws and the Constitution of the United States. That is why I am determined to protect our election system, which is now under coordinated assault and siege.

 We were warned we should not declare a premature victory in this election — it would take weeks…

My opponent was told to stay away — to not campaign — “we’ve got it”, and perhaps they did.

It’s about ensuring Americans can have faith in this election and all future elections.

If we are right about the fraud Joe Biden can’t be President.

This is a national disgrace.

“The single greatest achievement in your Presidency will be exactly what you are doing now”

Voter Integrity for our nation.

If we don’t root out the fraud, the tremendous and horrible fraud that’s taken place in the 2020 election, we don’t have a country any more.

We will restore trust in our system of government.

Full Transcript

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New Zealand PM has just given permission for climate zealots to break laws: “it’s an emergency”!

New Zealand, Flag, Map.

Jacida Ardern declared that New Zealand faces a climate emergency. She may think it’s just symbolic but there are prices, aside from making the word “emergency” just that much more useless. Ardern has stepped into a psychology trap like a public Chastity Vow. She and everyone who voted for it will be measured against this in everything they do. She’s been captured just that bit tighter. What?! say the eternally indignant, How can you fund a new Port / Frigate / Hospital / insert idea here –  when we face a climate emergency, right here, right now and for the next billion years! This will be used against her and the party and she will have less room to maneuver.

But the real price is what irresponsible people might do next

Declaring a fake emergency also provides the perfect excuse for activists to break the law then say “I’m just saving the Earth, your honor!” Perpetrators of civil disobedience have been using this in the US and UK to stay out of jail for things like shutting high pressure gas pipelines — a form of industrial sabotage that risks explosions. Alleged law breakers don’t have to prove there is a climate emergency, they just have to prove that a reasonable person would think there is. Thus Jacinda Ardern’s declaration becomes a reason for doing all kinds of dangerous and damaging activities, and then getting off scot free.

Activists are using the climate emergency as a new legal defence to justify law-breaking

Senior lecturer, School of Law and Justice, Southern Cross University

 The defence permits law-breaking in circumstances of “sudden or extraordinary emergency” if:

…an ordinary person possessing ordinary power of self-control could not reasonably be expected to act otherwise.

It’s a version of the common law “necessity defence”, which allows law-breaking to avoid greater harm or irreparable evil. This defence has been argued by climate activists in the US and UK for over a decade.

Emergencies are also the choice du jour for censorship. It’s that much easier to declare that people who discuss the role of the sun in climate change are dangerous thinkers.

If you are in New Zealand, hop over to the Climate Science Coalition and speak up while you still can.

The last word today goes to New Zealand’s official bureau NIWA. Here’s a graph from their site of what 25,000 years of climate emergency looks like.  Which part are we supposed to panic over?


Graph, New Zealand temperatures since the last ice age.

It’s a climate emergency, just like every other year since the last glacial maximum. From NIWA, NZ.

There’s another 1°C (in theory) that occurred over the 20th Century that’s not shown on the graph, but we are supposed to believe another half a degree more will turn the north island into a coral sea or something.

But even if that occurs, NZ will not even be as warm as it was 10,000 years ago.

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Democrats faked birthdays in Pennsylvania and are caught by statistics

Counties with more suspicious birthdays were more likely to vote for Biden

When people picked fake dates for fake voters they didn’t spread them in a normal pattern through the year. Instead of having more birthdays in the summer months (which is normal in the US) there were more births than expected in December and January. There were also more birthdays on the nice round numbered days like the 10th, 20th and 30th days of the month.

In a layered and detailed study Carl Bell uncovers how wildly unlikely these birthdays are. Not only are the days suspicious, the months are too, and then there is the red hot flag that the counties with the oddest birthday patterns are usually Biden supporters. And furthermore, they are counties that differed the most from their past voting behaviour and also counties with higher votes for third parties too (like the libertarians). It’s almost like fake voters wanted Joe Biden to win, but not win by too much, so they had to add in some votes for “others” as well.

The “birthday” tool could not only to be used to spot suspicious counties in the first place, it was so detailed it could give an estimate of what votes might have been if those outlier counties had had a more normal distribution.

As usual, when they take out the fakes, Trump won.

This looks like something that would be useful in a court of law. “Beyond reasonable doubt”.

It’s a sign of the caliber of the Trump supporters, and another weapon in the game. Studies like this motivate the good guys and must surely make some people more nervous.

Lawyers will be watching.

h/t Scott of the Pacific.

 Statistician Reveals How Pennsylvania Democrats Used Fake Voter Registration “Birthdays” to Commit Voter Fraud

By Carl Bell at Revolver

We construct a new metric of potential voter fraud using suspicious distributions of birthdays in Pennsylvania voter registration data. The basic idea is that people picking fake birthdays will make predictable non-random choices, like picking round numbers for days of the month, and not knowing what true birth month distributions look like.

Under this metric, a number of counties in Pennsylvania have extremely unlikely distributions of voter birthdays. Seven counties representing almost 1.4 million votes total (Northumberland, Delaware, Montgomery, Lawrence, Dauphin, LeHigh, and Luzerne) have suspicious birthdays above the 99.5th percentile of plausible distributions, even when using conservative assumptions about what these distributions should look like.


Suspicious Birthday voter fraud. Graph. Pennsylvania.


These suspicious birthdays also matter significantly for election outcomes. While there are suspicious counties that vote Republican overall, in general more suspicious birthdays in a county are strongly associated with a larger Biden vote share, and a higher Biden vote share relative to all Democrat presidential candidates since 2000. More suspicious birthdays are also associated with a higher vote share for Jorgensen relative to Trump (consistent with a fraud scheme aiming to get Biden high but not “too high”, while simultaneously giving as few votes to Trump as possible).

Finally, we quantify the magnitude of how this potential fraud may have impacted the election. Even a small reduction in the amount of suspicious birthdays (to the 98th percentile of the conservative distribution) would be predicted to have resulted in Trump winning the state by 71,500 votes. This suggests that whatever is driving the anomalous patterns in birthdays is sufficiently important to affect the statewide election result.


In Mongomery there were an awful lot of births in the colder months — see how far the red line is outside the normal curve?

Birthday, analysis, voting patterns in Pennsylvania. Election 2020


First, they must explain why the distribution looks so anomalous in the first place. That is to say, the level of the distribution looks wrong. And even if this is accomplished, they must also explain why these deviations should predict so many aspects of vote outcomes – not just Democrat performance, not just Democrat performance relative to all recent elections, but also the relative preference for Libertarians and Republicans.


Voters in Pennsylvania had very suspicious birthdays, Graph by county.

…. Third, more suspicious birthdays are also associated with higher vote shares for Jorgensen relative to Trump. This is an additional likely consequence of fraud – if a perpetrator wants to maximize the overall contribution to Biden over Trump in the statewide race, and doesn’t want to report an implausibly high overall vote for Biden, the only alternative is to add votes to Jorgensen.

Read the whole post at Revolver. It’s impressive work with all sources cited and methods explained. There’s a lot more to it that one might think, and the authors appeared to have considered it all.




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No need to investigate, FBI and Dept of Justice know there was no fraud


Lou Dobbs Tonight was scathing on the Attorney General William Barr and the Department of Justice

So many resources, yet so little results. How are the FBI or the DOJ serving the American people? Weeks after the most contentious election ever in the United States and there is no sign these major institutions are even checking the incidents being reported of voting irregularities.

Like the climate debate, why is it left mainly to volunteers to research and investigate something so important to the people?

Why aren’t the legacy media investigating and interviewing witnesses?


 Congressman Jim Jordan (Rep): The American people deserve the truth.

I have never seen an election where there were so many Why are we still counting votes a month after the election.
If we sent observers to foreign countries and they were still counting votes four weeks after

Voting machines are being impounded

No other president has ever lost after increasing their vote for relection.

Dobbs: Should the President say “this is a national crisis”, and we just don’t have time to investigate the number of problems with this election.

Jordan: One third of the electorate think this was rigged. When you have over 50 million people, a third of the electorate, think that this election was rigged, we owe it to them to investigate.

In other news, Kamala’s personal cameraman went on to  work at a software tech at Dominion. He was in charge in Floyd County elections in June which mysteriously included unexplained glitches, pauses in counting and unexplained voter dumps. A strange coincidence…

h/t Bill C, RossP


PS: For anyone who read the 780% of voter turnout yesterday from one precinct in Michigan, the huge number was very likely a decimal point error. See the update. Many questions remain about the other precincts showing 100% voter turnout.

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Was that a 100% plus voter turn-out in some Michigan precincts?

UPDATE: A Big Thankyou to Pedant General and B. Hicks for the official count for North Muskegon (page 459) shows this was likely a decimal point error and turnout was 78% not 780%. Headline Changed (Original “Was that a 780% turnout in North Muskegon, Michigan?”). Things may still be far out of the ordinary in North Muskagon. Academic Agent claims the turnout in 2012 in this same county was just 25%. In 2016 it was 55%.  Somehow the Precinct was transformed from an apathetic low voter place to a place that turned out in historic numbers. Hypothetically, if people intending to cheat were going to find thousands of votes the counties with the lowest voter turnout would be the best places to start. That said, it’s so much better if Affidavits got the numbers correct. Shame something as important as a free and fair election is not being investigated in this kind of details by institutions with major resources and many staff like the DoJ and the FBI.

What’s the story for all the other 100%-plus Precinct here? — Jo


You’ve heard of impossible voter turnouts in the USA and you were wondering why no one just listed the counties with the counts. Well here they are. Thanks to David E for finding them.

Many precincts of Michigan had a 100% turn out which is impressive in itself, but it was the 200, 400 and 800% turnouts that really take the cake. Ponder the kind of brazen cheating (or perhaps rushed panicked mistakes) that takes.  Even if there was a record high turnout of 80% in Michigan — 15% above normal — that would imply there were 36,812 extra zombie voters.

Below, see how one audit suggests that nearly one in ten absentee voters lives on a vacant lot or in a cemetery.

Exhibit Exhibit 104 — Document #1, Attachment #14

Affadavit of Russell James Ramsland


Michigan Turnout in 2020 election

Audit shows 9% of absentee votes in Michigan were not legal

Dead voters and people who live in vacant lots were keen for Joe Biden to win.

1,000 volunteers went through 30,000 votes of the 172,000 absentee votes

Keep reading  →

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