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By Jo NovaIt’s the Reality TV version of “Democracy”
For three years the workers of France revolted in Yellow Vest protests week after relentless week, even though the media ignored them, they kept returning. President Macron had to do something that looked like he was listening. So 150 people won the lucky dip draw to be the actors in a show pretending to be “the People’s Government of France”. Only they, apparently, thought they were doing something important. For nine months these 150 people were supposed to learn climate science and figure out what the other 65 million French citizens would have chosen had they been there. Naturally, they were marinated and baked in approved ClimateThink, and no dissenting scientists or citizens were invited. After this intense love in, they came up with a list of policies as big as a phone book, the government picked the ones they were probably going to do anyway, and flicked the ones they weren’t and then proclaimed the citizens had spoken! In theory there was supposed to be a Referendum option at the end, but this, well, nevermind, became just another round of votes in Parliament. The 150 were selected from a pool of 225,000 to represent an illusory “cross-section of the French population across their age, gender, education level, socio-professional category, etc etc. ” But if half the population of France are skeptics, no one selected them. Thus we get a pseudo “mini-democracy” where we can avoid all those messy public debates, and 150 people can save the world while the 65 million sleep through it. Turn on the TV, and turn off your brain. The Australian ABC loves it of course, and despite getting $3 million dollars to spend yesterday (like every day), it couldn’t find anyone who thought the Citizens Assembly was not wonderful. For thirty years the Experts were the only people that mattered, but now the Permitted-Amateurs are here to save the day: Asking “amateurs” for policy advice has one big advantage over the standard route of going to the experts, said Professor Curato. Non-experts can encounter a problem without preconceived ideas – and this can lead to unexpected new solutions. “If you’re a climate economist, you will only see the problem from an economic perspective. If you’re a climate scientist, you only see the problem from a scientific perspective,” she said. “Experts don’t have the monopoly of good answers.”. Of course, Permitted Amateurs were only taught permitted thoughts: It started with a crash course in climate change, presented by the best French experts, [who hadn’t already been sacked, thinks Jo]… to get all the citizens up to speed on the latest science. There was also the inevitable conversion of the rare short-lived B-meson subatomic skeptic that only seems to exist in high speed press releases: Just like any cross-section of society, their knowledge of climate change varied across the group, and Dr Giraudet said these lectures had an immediate impact on the group. “These were a big shock for many of the participants. Some claim that they came as climate sceptics and after these lectures, they completely changed their mind.” Everywhere else in the real world the conversions all go the other way from believer to skeptic, and usually just as they retire. The Selected Permitted Amateurs did such a good job they came up with ideas so outlandish they could make Macron look like a sensible man of the centre as he vetoed them or wound them back. They wanted to reduce speed limits, tax big corporations, and stop everyone flying anywhere that wasn’t at least four hours away. Instead it’s just become a ban on trips under two-and-a-half hours. Lucky French citizens will now get health warnings on their car adverts. What like, Driving Renaults Melts Glaciers? Ecocide is a magic wand that stops all environmental crimeThey also wanted to introduce the crime of Ecocide. Imagine if you could just make a law over highly complex international scientific issues with error bars larger than Antarctica and six dimensions of moving parts? What could possibly go wrong, apart from turning it into a supra-national unelected government body with corrupt scientists, corrupt judges, and working like the WHO does in the service of President Xi? France would have been the first country in the world to make ecocide a crime. Instead, Macron promised to make ecocide a less-serious “offence”. As wikipedia says: “Ecocide is human impact on the environment causing mass destruction to that environment.” Making it about as amorphous, unmeasureable, infinite and endless as any container-ship of unemployed lawyers and scientists could want. France, no doubt, already has specific laws about measurable pollution. But that isn’t enough to be able to sue political targets for sins against our grandchildren that can’t be measured yet, except with computer models. Photo: Anthony DELANOIX October 14th, 2022 | Tags: Democracy, Ecocide, France, Lawfare | Category: Europe, Global Warming, Lawfare, Psy-Ops |  Print This Post | | … By Jo Nova
The Wall Street Journal — bless them — analyzed 12,000 officials at 50 federal agencies and sifted through 850,000 financial assets to uncover a seething well of graft, grift and pilfering. As the WSJ prosaically says, “The federal government doesn’t maintain a comprehensive public database of the mandatory financial disclosures of all senior executive-branch officials. So The Wall Street Journal built its own.” There were problems everywhere but the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) got the first mention on the “Six Takeaways” list of government corruption. Who would have thought that a public body holding the purse-strings to the rest of the economy, with vague ill-defined, unmeasurable long term goals would become so corrupt. More to the point, who would have thought they wouldn’t? With so many public officials making out like bandits the point of carbon credits is not to change the weather, it’s a Bureaucrat Investment Tool. With the power to ban or gift exemptions to favoured firms, bureaucrats can insider trade their way to retirement.
Six Takeaways From WSJ’s Investigation Into the Stock Trades of Government OfficialsBy Michael Siconolfi, Wall Street Journal Numerous federal officials owned shares of companies lobbying their agencies: More than 200 senior officials at the Environmental Protection Agency, or nearly one in three, reported that they or their family members held investments in companies that were lobbying the agency. EPA employees and their family members collectively owned between $400,000 and nearly $2 million in shares of oil and gas companies on average each year between 2016 and 2021. An EPA official reported purchases of oil and gas stocks. The Food and Drug Administration improperly let an official own dozens of food and drug stocks on its no-buy list. A Defense Department official bought stock in a defense company five times before it won new business from the Pentagon. Cocky, What? This is really blatant: Some officials traded ahead of regulatory actions: More than five dozen officials at five agencies reported trading stocks of companies shortly before their departments announced enforcement actions against those companies, such as charges or settlements. Not only did a lot of people have snouts in the trough, but there must have also been a lot of blind eyes to avoid seeing all that insider trading. And some numbers were surprisingly large for people earning an hourly wage. In some cases the individual trades were between “$5 million and $25 million”. People say that the Tech Giants are private, but in some sense Big Gov privately owns Big Tech. Federal officials are big technology investors: While the government was ramping up scrutiny of large technology companies, more than 1,800 federal officials reported owning or trading at least one of four major tech stocks: Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook, Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. There are around 1,800 people employed by the government who have less than no interest in launching an anti-trust suit. On the plus side, at least we know there is still a news agency left which has some journalists. And that’s a big deal.
As for the cause of the wave of self serving cheatery, we could do cultural psychoanalysis, but as I keep saying, it starts with fake money. Inflating the currency works like cancer on the delicate network of incentives. First people feel happy, more confident, and more willing to take risks. Things work out, especially for those at the head of the rocket. But pretty soon, things escalate — and before you know it, crazy-land is here, all traffic lights are stuck on Green, and one guy has a plan to hold back the sea and a ten trillion dollar fund to do it. Somewhere along the way, desk clerks get an investment portfolio, and investment sharks get a job at the EPA. At some point half the population knows someone who’s on the take and getting away with it, and the next day nearly everyone is. There’s a reason everything seems to be going off the rails simultaneouslyThe more money we print, the more corruption we feed.  The supply of US base money since 1960. If you thought the GFC was bad… And if you think corruption is terrible now, just wait until bureaucrats and bankers get a Global Carbon Currency.
Congress photo by Louis Velazquez on Unsplash … A report by Mark Mills called the The “Energy Transition” Delusion came out in August with some killer statistics. Despite the rampant glorious uptake of sparkling renewables, wind and solar provide less than 5% of the total global energy demand while the hated hydrocarbons still provide 84%. And that energy demand is growing relentlessly and with no end in sight. Global economies are facing a potential energy shock—the third such shock of the past half century. Energy costs and security have returned to center stage, as has the realization that the world remains deeply dependent on reliable supplies of petroleum, natural gas, and coal. It’s a hi-tech energy blackholeAs James Freeman at the Wall Street Journal, noted, some of the most game-changing statistics in the report are about mobile phones. Our need for gadgets, phones and the internet means we need more energy than ever: Historically, the energy costs of manufacturing a product roughly tracked the weight of the thing produced. A refrigerator weighs about 200 times more than a hair dryer and takes nearly 100 times more energy to fabricate. But it takes nearly as much energy to make one smartphone as it does one refrigerator, even though the latter weighs 1,000 times more. The world produces nearly 10 times more smartphones a year than refrigerators. Thus, the global fabrication of smartphones now uses 15% as much energy as does the entire automotive industry, even though a car weighs 10,000 times more than a smartphone. The global Cloud, society’s newest and biggest infrastructure, uses twice as much electricity as the entire nation of Japan. Most of the world doesn’t own a car (yet)Advocates of a carbon-free world underestimate not only how much energy the world already uses, but how much more energy the world will yet demand. There are more people, more wealth, and more kinds of technologies and services than existed when President John F. Kennedy faced the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, and 60 years later, global energy consumption has risen more than 300%. In the future, there will be yet more innovations and more people, many of whom will be more prosperous and want what others already have, from better medical care to cars and vacations. In America, there are nearly as many vehicles as people, while in most of the world, fewer than 1 in 20 people have a car. More than 80% of the world population has yet to take a single flight.[25] Drug manufacturing is far more energy-intensive than fabricating cars or aircraft, and hospitals use 250% more energy per square foot than commercial buildings. No matter the will to get pink-batts in the roof, the global numbers are colossal, and only at the start of the exponential curve. As I graphed in June — the world is using more fossil fuels than everThe energy transition has no chance of keeping up with the growing global energy demand, let alone pushing out fossil fuels:  https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
h/t to Rafe Champion, Paul Miskelly, Jim Simpson, Neville, Dave B. REFERENCESManhattan Institute, Mark Mills The Energy Transition Delusion [PDF] Photo: Mbrickn Qualcomm QSC6055 BNSM523 on LG VN251S Sorry about Monday. Florida Surgeon General warns of 84% increase heart attack deaths 18-39 men Dr Joseph Ladapo (he speaks very well). In March, Florida Health advised against giving any child a Covid vaccine. Now the Florida Surgeon General says adult men under 40 should not get mRNA vaccines against Covid because it nearly doubles their risk of a fatal heart attack in the following month. Not many men in their 20s and 30s die of a heart attack, but it’s a very big deal when they do, and this means nearly half of the deaths in that 28 day period post vaccination are a tragedy that could have been prevented. The risk in young women was a hefty 59% higher too. Where are all our Chief Health Officers now — they must have 18 months of data on this, and if they don’t, that’s its own scandal. Men above 60 had a 10% increased risk of cardiac fatality. Since heart attacks are so much more common in older men this small increase can end up having a big effect. This trainwreck could be seen comingEver since we knew myocarditis was increased, we knew deaths would too: Obviously, talk to your doctor, but if you took this Florida Health report or their guidance in to your GP, you might get different advice. The cost-benefit ratio for vaccination at age 60+ is different but heart attacks are not the only potential drawback in the equation either. And given the lack of care, public data or even interest in reporting real risks, how can anyone calculate anything? Dr Twitter decided that this was misinformationHer is the dangerous tweet that Twitter said “violated the Twitter rules”. As ZeroHedge reported Twitter deleted the tweet, but a day later they republished it — perhaps realizing that the launch-loop of their counter-attack was coming right back at them.  Dr Joseph Ladapo The Streisand effect would bring even more attention to the Florida Health announcement. Even Politico has written about the censorship. And since the message came from a “state health official” and from a guy with an MD and a PhD from Harvard no less, by deleting the tweet Twitter presumably violated its own rules too. “Authoritative sources” don’t get much more authoritative than this. Worst of all, Twitter was telling the world that what matters to Twitter is not truth, or even “the official truth” but just whether the tweet supports Big Pharma. Excuse me, your slip is showing… Now that the illusion of free speech is back (momentarily) there is an active debate on the twitter thread about the merits and failures of the study. #1. “Diagnosis codes for cardiac-related deaths are imperfect.” Yes! But that is true for every subgroup we examined. Only in young men was the risk extremely high, and it was also increased in older men. #2. “COVID test information was only available on death certificates.” No! We used all of our data resources-test results, vaccine records, death records-to exclude individuals who had documented COVID-19 infection, as we write in the Methods section. #3. “The sample size is too small.” 3a. Elevated cardiac risk was also found in older men, and there were thousands of deaths in this group. 3b. The total cardiac deaths meeting inclusion criteria among young men was 77, not 20, as has been going around the web. This study may not have shown an overall increase in excess mortality, but we know other larger datasets in the US, Germany, UK and Australia do. hat tips to Eric Worrall, MM from Canada, Old Ozzie, another Ian, Wendy B, David Maddison.For those who want more details on the Florida study, thanks to the Epoch Times:Keep reading → It’s still Sunday for most people who are awake… By Jo NovaIronies don’t get better than this: Thanks to the renewable energy transition, Europe can’t afford to make renewable energy.When will the message get through that renewable energy is not sustainable?
So much for all the solar jobs. Europeans are being reduced to being installers while the production of panels shifts to coal fired China because electricity is so much cheaper. Most of the wind turbine industry has already moved to China. European solar PV manufacturing at risk from soaring power prices – RystadJules Scully, PV TechAround 35GW of PV manufacturing projects in Europe are at risk of being mothballed as elevated power prices damage the continent’s efforts to build a solar supply chain, research from Rystad Energy suggests. The consultancy noted that the energy-intensive nature of both solar PV and battery cell manufacturing processes is leading some operators to temporarily close or abandon production facilities as the cost of doing business escalates. It’s not the only thing in jeopardy: “Building a reliable domestic low-carbon supply chain is essential if the continent is going to stick to its goals, including the REPowerEU plan, but as things stand, that is in serious jeopardy,” [said Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s head of energy service research]. Tell us what “affordable means:
While Europeans have benefitted from reliable and affordable electricity, the research suggested that low-carbon manufacturers have based their build-up of production capacity on stable power prices of around €50/MWh. And the country with the most fossil fuels wins: The high costs of European PV manufacturing were revealed in a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which found China is the most cost-competitive location to manufacture all components of the solar PV supply chain, with costs in the country 35% lower than in Europe. Photo: August 24, 2017 – Submodule Packout (Ohio) (Photo by Dennis Schroeder / NREL) U.S. Department of Energy October 9th, 2022 | Tags: Renewable Energy, Solar Energy (PV) | Category: Big-Government, Global Warming, Renewable, Solar Power | Print This Post | | … Apparently only 0.3% of cars in Florida are currently EV’s, which is lucky, because after the Hurricane Ian a few of them are catching fire. Imagine what happens when all the cars are EV’s and firefighters need to pour on 100,000 liters of water and stick around for hours to baby sit what’s left: Electric vehicles catching fire in Florida after Hurricane IanDavid Propper, New York Post. Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and state fire marshal, said on Twitter. “There’s a ton of EVs disabled from Ian,” he tweeted. “As those batteries corrode, fires start. “That’s a new challenge that our firefighters haven’t faced before. At least on this kind of scale.” At least one other twitter account North Collier Fire Rescue reports that “I’m in Naples there have been multiple fires like this in areas impacted by Ian.” In the twitter thread people warn that that they shouldn’t be using water to put out a lithium battery fire, but there is so little that anyone can do to stop these fires, that pouring hundreds of gallons of water a minute continuously is the official Tesla policy.  Allegedly the Tesla policy on car fires. But boy is it a lot of water: Up to 150 000 liters of water needed to put out a fire in an electric carInternational Associat6ion of Fire and Rescue Services A US fire service recently needed to use 24 000 gallons – almost 90 000 liters – of water to put out a battery fire in a Tesla in a parking lot car fire. Studies suggest even more water may be necessary to put out fires in EVs. According to an article on TheHill.com on August 17, 2021 it is considered normal procedure that firefighters will need to use up to 40 times more water to put out a fire in an EV, compared to a standard gasoline car. The article also claims authorities have said a Tesla Model X poses a serious threat of starting a fire for hours after a crash. “Normally a car fire you can put out with 500 to 1,000 gallons of water,” Austin Fire Department Division Chief Thayer Smith said, according The Independent. In the Netherlands the fire brigade just lifted a smoking hybrid car and dropped it into a container full of water. Apparently it slows the fire down and only takes 24 to 48 hours. When 100% of all cars are EV’s we see the Fire Department towing cranes and truck-sized-baths to manage them… Of course, most EV car fires don’t give this much lead time. As far as the all new Clean Green Civilization goes, we are building this plane as we fly it. It doesn’t have to be that way. By Jo Nova Just to recap: Energy prices are so wildly high in Europe — thanks to a quest to alter the planetary climate — that 70% of fertilizer plants have already shut down, half the aluminum and zinc smelters have closed, and glass-makers and tilers who survived both world wars may go out of business. German homes are reduced to being wood fired (if they can find the firewood). Meanwhile someone very naughty set off explosions on the Nordstream gas pipes from Russia, and since a third of all UK gas comes from an underwater pipe to Norway now suddenly people are very nervous about that. Before most of this unfolded, UK consumer confidence was at minus 44 — the lowest ebb ever recorded since 1974 when people started recording these things. Now it’s even lower (minus 49). As many as one in four people in the UK were saying they won’t heat their homes in winter. It’s the most dramatic fall in European energy since the late Middle Ages. Luckily, at least the UK and Germany both have some old coal plants they haven’t blown up. To make things more exciting, last week, after the underwater bombs went off, Joe Biden said he’d help European allies with gas, but this week, he’s thinking about banning US exports of gas and oil. Well, the US midterm elections are coming. UK electricity prices: Spot Electricity prices in the UK. | Trading Economics
And it was all so easily avoidable, completely unnecessary, and we won’t let any of them forget. Rolling three hour blackouts for the UK this winter?Households could experience a series of three-hour power cuts this winter if Vladimir Putin shuts off gas supplies from Russia and Britain experiences a cold snap, National Grid has warned. Such an event would mean consumers in different parts of the country being notified a day in advance of three-hour blocks of time during which their power would be cut off, in an effort to reduce total consumption by 5%. Apparently the King has to approve these “rota disconnections” and the privy council would advise him. Which takes British monarchical symbolism to its peak really. I mean what would happen if he said “No”? Even though the UK didn’t get much gas from Russia, the market prices “flowed” right through: Britain has the highest electricity costs in Europe, with consumers paying almost eight times as much as in some other countries, new research shows.Energy users in Britain were paying 64.21 Euro cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for electricity in August, according to analysis produced by the Household Energy Price Index... — NationalWorld Meanwhile the EU experiment is tearing at the edgesThere is a bun fight developing over who gets the scarce energy, and at what price. Some nations are paying 7 Euros per Megawatt hour tomorrow, some will pay 270.  Day ahead prices for spot electricity tomorrow in the EU. | Energy Live The Germans and the Greens want the collectivist solution. But nations willing to use their own fossil fuels have cheap electricity and are getting rich. The nations caught in the middle resent having to pay for the German Energiewende grand experiment, but they also resent paying the Norwegians. EU fumes as US, Norway energy profits put solidarity to the testEuroactiv As the USA and Norway reap unprecedented profits from surging energy prices, EU countries are complaining more loudly and are preparing to send the European Commission forward to negotiate a better deal, voluntarily or not. The European energy crisis has caused energy prices to spike. While Russia, the cause of the crisis, was one of the largest beneficiaries, EU allies, primarily the USA and Norway, are reaping extreme windfall profits as they fill the gap Russia left behind. “In an energy crisis of such magnitude, the solutions are to be found together in the spirit of solidarity,” commented Renew Europe MEP Nicolae Ștefănuță. Those who have fossil fuels have too many profits:Norway, now the EU’s largest supplier of fossil fuels, is profiting immensely from Russia’s actions and subsequent energy price spike. Norwegian officials say they have a difficult time with such windfall profits. “There are times when it is not fun to make money, and this is one of them,” said Norwegian petroleum and energy minister Terje Aasland in March. The Norwegian Greens say that the governments excuse that these profits are good for the pension fund “is lame”: “We cannot go on being war profiteers, which is becoming more shameful by the day,” he added. Norway, a small European country, “is as dependent on peace, stability and prosperity on the continent as any other country,” Johansen noted. ..the Greens want the extra fossil fuel profits to go into a solidarity fund to be used to aid Ukraine and Europe’s energy poor. The Norwegian Greens call their own government “War Profiteers” for looking after their senior citizens. They say they want peace, but don’t realize that energy insecurity is a weapon of war. October 7th, 2022 | Tags: Electricity Cost, Energy Crisis, Europe, Nordstream | Category: Cost, Global Warming, Renewable, UK | Print This Post | | It’s still Thursday somewhere… A dedicated group called ICAN has finally obtained the CDC data for v-safe, the smartphone App that allowed 10 million registered users to report side effects after getting a Covid vaccine. There are several things to ponder about the belated forced release of the US v-safe data:
“Among numerous alarming results, out of the approximate 10 million individuals that registered and submitted data to v-safe, 782,913 individuals, or over 7.7% of v-safe users, had a health event requiring medical attention, emergency room intervention, and/or hospitalization. Over 25% had an event that required them to miss school or work and/or prevented normal activities.” — ICAN
Hundreds of Thousands of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC DataZachary Steiber, Epoch Times “It took numerous legal demands, appeals, and two lawsuits, and over a year, but the CDC finally capitulated and agreed to a court order requiring them to do what they should have done from day one, release the V-safe data to the public,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing ICAN in the case, told The Epoch Times in an email. About 10 million people utilized V-safe during the period of time the data covers: Dec. 14, 2020, to July 31, 2022. About 231 million Americans received at least one vaccine dose during that time. The V-safe users reported about 71 million symptoms… About 4.2 million of the symptoms were of severe severity. ICAN has only just begun analyzing this data. They invite people so “do your own research”: The data is voluminous (one of the files, alone, is over 23 gigabytes) and so ICAN worked diligently and around the clock to get it into a user-friendly format for you to review, which you can do here. By Jo NovaFree Speech is terrifying for bullies with no answersIt’s a travesty: Imagine if any old former President could say what they thought to anyone who wanted to listen? The Elon Musk deal is on again, and Johnathon Turley has noticed that many in the media are not looking forward to having more freedom to express themselves on Twitter. Nothing says “propaganda hack” better than the journalists who want a safe-space so that people won’t be able to correct them, mock them, or report the news better than they do. Free Speech is dangerous (for people who are corrupt): “Be Afraid, Be Actually Afraid”: Reporters Panic At The Thought Of Twitter Restoring Free Speech Protectionsby Johnathon Turley, ZeroHedge “Be afraid, be actually afraid.” Those words from former Politico Magazine editor Garrett M. Graff captures the hyperventilation in the media week. No it is not Vladimir Putin’s threat of unleashing a nuclear war or the word that our national debt has reached a staggering $31 trillion. No, it is the news that Elon Musk may go forward with the purchase of Twitter and . . . [triggering warning] . . . free speech protections might be restored on the platform. There really is panic. Think about how poor journalism-school is when journalists say these things in public forums: BBC journalist Dickens Olewe warned that “Guardrails will be dropped, misinfo & conspiracy theories will thrive. No functional alternatives available, this is it: a complete destruction of the global public square. Been nice y’all.” PoliticusUSA head Sarah Reese Jones seemed to move from the desperate to the outright delusional: “Before 2020, Facebook deplatformed progressives, then it came for mainstream media and elevated only radicalized conservatives. Cut to 2022, we know Elon Musk plans to do same with Twitter. We know how damaging it will be.Tech giants pose ongoing threat to western democracy.” That’s right, social media companies have been favoring conservatives and targeting progressives. That is why a wide array of conservative groups and figures have been banned or suspended. That is why the Hunter Biden laptop was buried before the election. That is why there are now numerous reports of backchannels with the government in censoring opposing views. Euronews correspondent Shona Murray tweeted, “The end of Twitter as we know it is nigh.” Ben Collins from NBC News, with no sense of irony — “it could affect the midterms”
Meanwhile many conservatives on Twitter are noticing their accounts are shrinking today. Is management deleting some bots? Late sorry… You’d think it would be big news? Deaths in Australia are running a lot higher than expected. After ticking like a metronome for years, they’ve suddenly jumped 12% or even higher. This is above and beyond normal deaths and deaths listed as “Covid”. Something mysterious or new has killed around 10,000 Australians in the When a car crash kills three people, we hear about it on the six o’clock news. But when 10,000 lose their lives… crickets. Total media interest on this mystery killer amounts to three tangential mentions out of 100 media outlets. One, in the Australian Financial Review called it a “marked” change and “helpfully” said it wasn’t due to suicide. The Guardian, meanwhile wondered if Covid was really killing more people than we realize. The third, NewsGP for doctors was the only serious discussion, yet even it was all questions and no answers. The word vaccine was only mentioned so that we knew that unnamed analysts believe “the probable influence of vaccine-related deaths … is ‘negligible’. Not that they had any reasons. Actuaries Australia estimate the increase in deaths in the first five months of the year was 12% higher than expected. They are the most conservative. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) though calculates that so far in the first half of 2022 there were some 13,500 deaths more than the historical average. If they are correct that would be 17% above normal. Of the excess deaths, 5,292 were Covid positive deaths, many in the peak of the first major wave of widespread Covid in Australia in January 2022. But sometime around September last year there was a large rise in unexpected deaths that are not officially due to Covid. This group (marked in yellow) was far above the normal range expected and stayed higher ever since. *UPDATE: To clarify, of the 10,300 excess deaths from Jan to June about 5,300 were due to Covid. So there were 5,000 unexplained mystery deaths, which is 830 Australians dying each month (in the most conservative actuaries estimate, and more in the ABS numbers). In the last twelve months that works out to be 10,000 people. Obviously numbers can’t be confirmed for a few more months.  A mysterious increase in deaths occurred from September 2021 and continues to the latest figures. Peak vaccine doses in Australia occurred from August to October in 2021. The lack of deaths in winter 2021 was largely because the borders were closed and there was no influenza. Figures for 2022 are extraordinaryBelow, Actuaries Australia plot the deaths recorded so far in 2022 compared to previous years.  Excess deaths by Actuaries Australia was 12% higher than expected (Jan to May this year). The grey line is what they would have expected to happen in 2022. The blue line is what the ABS estimates deaths should have been in 2022. The ABS is averaging from a five year baseline before the pandemic started. The Actuaries are including some figures from during the pandemic and allowing for our population to be growing a bit older which would make deaths rise slightly each year. The actuaries explain the reasons their estimate of excess deaths was lower than the ABS:We have made allowance in our estimate for late registered deaths whereas the ABS does not. This acts to understate the ‘actual’ number of deaths used by the ABS, thus understating the measure of excess deaths by around 2%. However, the more significant difference is in the determination of the baseline, where the ABS uses a simple average of the number of deaths from 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, with no allowance for mortality trends or demographic changes. In our view, this understates the baseline and therefore overstates the measure of excess deaths by around 6%. These two impacts work in opposing directions, resulting in a difference in the estimates of excess deaths of around 4%. The causes of the excess deaths:Actuaries Australia essentially declares that most of the excess deaths are probably due to longer ongoing risks after a Covid infection. Some of the excess may be a “bounce” from the reduction in deaths caused in 2020 when influenza was gone. (But why did that “bounce” wait until Sept 2021 to start?) Some of the excess could be because doctors and hospitals and emergency wards were overwhelmed, and people didn’t get check ups. But it definitely wasn’t due to vaccines because, wait for it, Australia has a good vaccine approval process. (Yes, we sign secret contracts, and use secret data. How could anyone disagree?) Amazingly they even quote the Australian vaccine safety report which includes 931 deaths reported after vaccination. This is nearly 10% of the mystery deaths tally, and if it were under-reported 10 to 1 (as is the case in the UK — see Ref 39/40 in the Malhotra paper) then the true tally could easily be nearly all the mystery deaths. Instead, the actuaries are comfortable ignoring 918 of those 931 reported deaths. Only 13 deaths were found “to be caused” by a vaccine. Amazing the power of faceless bureaucrats to delete all those people. Cancelled, even after death. For the sake of the record, here’s part of the Actuaries discussion: What could be causing Covid Deaths?1. Post-COVID-19 sequelae or interactions with other causes of death: Possible impact in Australia: High An earlier COVID-19 illness could be causing later illness and death, and/or COVID-19 could have worsened other diseases which ultimately caused death. Studies have shown that COVID-19 is associated with higher subsequent mortality risk from heart disease and other causes. To some extent, this shows on death certificates in the 999 deaths in the first four months of 2022 where COVID-19 is listed as a contributory cause, and a further 77 deaths were identified as from Long COVID. However, we understand that medical science has not yet established a causative link that would allow, say, a heart attack several months after a COVID-19 infection to be attributed back to COVID-19. As such, it seems likely that there would be more of these deaths than identified. 2. Delayed deaths from other causes: Moderate 3. Delay in emergency care: Low to Moderate 4. Delay in routine care: Low to Moderate 5. Pandemic-influenced lifestyle changes: Low 6. Vaccine-related deaths: While there have been deaths in Australia caused by the administration of COVID-19 vaccines, the number of such deaths has been small. Australia has a very good vaccine approval and safety monitoring processes, administered by the Therapeutic Goods Administration. The latest vaccine safety report (to 25 August) shows 136,000 adverse events have been reported from 63 million vaccines administered (a rate of 0.2% per vaccine administered). Of those adverse events, 931 were reports of death following vaccination. Of those deaths, 13 were found to have been caused by the administration of the vaccine, and all were following a first dose of AstraZeneca which is now in limited use in Australia. Possible impact in Australia: Negligible 7. Undiagnosed COVID-19: Possible impact in Australia: Negligible If the actuaries were really interested in whether vaccines or late Covid sequelae were the problem, they could dissect the state level data. There was an ideal experiment in Australia where at least one state (WA) had virtually no covid cases for all of 2021, but vaccinations were rolling out. Surely there we could compare the excess mysterious deaths with say, NSW, and see whether it was the virus or the vaccines… ____________________ *The 10,000 deaths in the headline starts with the conservative 8,500 estimate of the actuaries from January to May and multiplies it by 6/5 to make it a six month estimate. The UPDATE in the middle of the post clarifies that half those deaths were Covid related so the 10,000 mystery deaths applies to the last 12 months. (2am WST Oct 6.) Our World in Data:” Births and Deaths in Australia Aseem Malhotra, (2022) Curing the pandemic of misinformation on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines through real evidence-based medicine – Part 1, Journal of Insulin Resistance, ISSN: (Online) 2519-7533, (Print) 2412-2785 … |
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