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And so the adjustments war ramps up a notch.
There are two main groups that use essentially the same NASA and NOAA satellites to estimate global temperatures. In the last year, they’ve both made adjustments, one down, and one up, getting further apart in their estimates. In ClimateWorld this is a big deal. Believers are excited that now a satellite set agrees a bit better with the maligned “hot” surface thermometers. But UAH still agrees more with millions of weather balloons. The debate continues. Here’s my short synopsis of the Roy Spencer (and John Christy) from the “Comments on the new RSS lower tropospheric temperature set.” (If something is wrong here, blame me).
The Bottom Line:
1. Both data-sets show far less warming than what climate models estimate. UAH shows +0.12 C/decade, the new RSS trend is up to +0.17 C/decade. But climate models estimate +0.27 C/decade in the lower troposphere.
2. The headline suggesting that the RSS revisions found “140% faster warming since 1998” is the usual hype. The warming trend was tiny to start with. The headlines didn’t tell us that RSS is now warming a few hundreds of a degree per decade faster, […]
News just coming in suggests someone took some pot shots at the building the UAH satellite data is analyzed in.
Shots Fired into the Christy/Spencer Building at UAH
April 24th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
A total of seven shots were fired into our National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) building here at UAH over the weekend.
All bullets hit the 4th floor, which is where John Christy’s office is (my office is in another part of the building).
Given that this was Earth Day weekend, with a March for Science passing right past our building on Saturday afternoon, I think this is more than coincidence. When some people cannot argue facts, they resort to violence to get their way.
Maybe the “March For Science” should have been called the “March To Silence”.
More discussion at Roy Spencers Blog and also at WUWT.
Roy Spencer adds in an email:
I doubt any media have covered it yet. I doubt the police have even written a report yet. From what I’ve heard, it sounds like the police believe the shots were fired from a passing car, […]
There are probably only ten people in Australia who haven’t heard it was the Hottest Ever, Record Summer Downunder. And they were probably born yesterday.
Summer here was so scorchingly awful it was Angry. But a funny thing happened on the orbit overhead. Check out the UAH satellite data on summers since the UAH records began. The graph below (thanks to Ken) is the temperature data from the NASA satellites, processed by UAH (University of Alabama in Huntsville). Strangely there is a disparity between what the satellites recorded and the BOM.
The satellite data shows that the summer of 2012-2013 was close to ordinary, compared with the entire satellite record going back to 1979. Not a record. Not even extreme?
According to UAH satellite measurements summer in early 2013 was not a record. Not even close.
The graph data comes thanks to John Christy, Director, Earth System Science Center, Distinguished Professor, Atmospheric Science University of Alabama in Huntsville, Alabama State Climatologist and Roy Spencer. It was graphed by Ken Stewart at KensKingdom, and inspired by Tom Quirk at Quadrant. I was very happy to connect them this weekend. The data cover “average lower troposphere temperature anomalies for land grids […]
Humans live in a 90 degree range from Marble Bar, Australia to Oymyakon, Siberia. | Photos: Marble Bar, Wilford Peloquin, Oymyakon (and more glorious ones) by Amos Chapple.
By Jo Nova
The “hottest ever” headline is misleading
While the UAH satellite measurements are the hottest by far of the 44 year satellite record, nothing about the “hottest ever” media frenzy makes sense — not for health, history, the long term, or human biology. It’s only the “hottest ever” if we ignore most of the last ten thousand years. It’s just another attempt to scare people out of their money.
The latest UAH satellite measurements may be affected by the water vapor launched into the atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga volcano. There don’t appear to be any clear details about that, but even if we accept this as is, it’s still nothing to spend a trillion dollars on:
From Roy Spencer, UAH
In the big scheme of human history, the world has been a lot hotter and a lot colder. Homo sapiens are 37 degree animals who retire to warm climates, not cold ones. Most people on Earth live in the warm tropics, not the cold poles. […]
By Jo Nova h/t Cohenite
New NOAA STAR Satellite system gets a major correction and suddenly agrees with UAH satellites, not RSS
An all new reanalysis of the STAR satellite data finds markedly lower temperature trends for the last 40 years. The big deal about this is that this third dataset suddenly supports the original UAH satellite data, not the other RSS system, and not the “surface thermometers” sitting near hot tarmacs and absolutely not the climate models.
The warming trend in the troposphere was only half of what the expert models predicted. From the paper:
Santer et al. (2021) reported that the multi-model averages for the TTT trends from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were 0.28–0.29 K/decade during 1979–2019. The total TTT trend found in this study was only one-half of the climate model simulations during the same period.
The authors admit that this has strong implications for the models, and supports a paper by skeptics Ross McKitrick and John Christy: Ross McKitrick replied in the Financial Post:
An important new study on climate change came out recently…
Zou’s team notes that their findings “have strong implications for trends in climate model simulations and other […]
By Jo Nova
The latest State of the Climate Report is out to scare everyone with plucked esoteric records based on dubious datasets adjusted with secret algorithms.
The star of the report is the 1.5 degrees of Australian “hockeystick” graph of warming (below). The Herald Sun calls it “Scary”.
The biggest crimes of this report are what they don’t say. The CSIRO and BoM must know, but don’t mention, that satellites don’t show any warming in Australia in the last ten years at all. Satellites track across all seven million square kilometers of Australia, and are calibrated against thousands of weather balloons. The CSIRO and BoM prefer to use thermometers in carparks, near runways, or close to incinerators, then they magically adjust trends at some sites up by as much as 2 degrees (that’s the whole century-long trend right there?!)
They also don’t mention that scientists in Australia were reporting that Australia was cooling from the 1890s to 1952. (Deacon et al) The ghastly heat of 1896, the Federation Drought, and the 50C record temperatures all over Australia all go down the memory hole.
Big Scary Graph according to the Sun Herald. From the State of the […]
Across the continent downunder, “the new pause” in temperatures is now 9.6 years long as measured by the most reliable system there is — UAH satellites.
If and when we hit the Ten Year Pause, the National Climate Alarm Centres will all issue press releases, just like the other headline events, right? Just like the “Worst bleaching since last year”, “Hottest day since records began” in 1993. Six hot days in a row in one city of Australia.
Which model predicted that temperatures in Australia would do “net nothing” for a decade?
Thanks to Charles for the graph! (His explanation of calculating the “zero slope” is at #14.2.1)
The length of the zero slope pause line is now 9.6 years.
Technically, temperatures have been falling according to the UAH Satellites since May 2016.
Satellites are obviously better for global and continental temperature trends
Assuming we care about trends that is, and not just one-second records. The UAH satellites circle continuously, and cover the entire continent. They don’t just measure 100 small points with thermometers, next to airports and incinerators, but 7 million square kilometers of area.
Some smarty pants will say UAH is bad, because it doesn’t match […]
Why does “seven years” suddenly matter?
“The past 7 years have been the hottest on record
“by a clear margin,” scientists say”
Since when do we do climate analysis on seven year periods? — Since climate scientists get rewarded for scaring taxpayers and “seven” is this years lucky number.
2021 wasn’t THE hottest year so they have to come up with something
In climate “science” there are always a thousand combinations and permutations of climate records to pick from, so it’s a snap to find one that sings. If it wasn’t the hottest year in 2021, it might have been the hottest global summer, warmest winter, driest spring, or stormiest “on record”. And if temperatures stop rising, the hottest year record stretches elastically into the hottest 2-years, 3-years and 5 years-on-record.
Scientifically, the climate interval that matters most is whatever it has to be to stretch out and sing “Bingo” — “The Met Bureau needs more money.”
Naturally all Climate Bingo games are boosted by inexplicable adjustments, badly placed thermometers, shrinking thermometer screens, and the process of constantly rewriting history. If the incinerators near thermometers don’t do it, the homogenization will. They might be Australian […]
Follow the science, eh?
Bad news for athletes born as baby girls – unless they start testosterone therapy straight away, it’s hard to see how they can win against babies with 18 years of DIY hormone “treatments” that help them grow six inches taller, with lower body fat, and larger hearts and lungs.
The old rules were silly, but the new ones are worse:
New Olympic Committee Rules Essentially End Women’s Sports
by Libby Emmons, The Federalist
The previous rules for the participation of men in women’s sports were already unfair, with male athletes having to show that their testosterone levels were below 10 nmol/liter of blood for 12 months or more. Women’s standard amount of testosterone is .09 nmol/liter of blood. Even with the application of testosterone during a British medical study, women were only able to increase to 4.3 nmol/liter. The normal, healthy range for men is 9.2 to 31.8 nmol/liter.
Overturning the entirety of human history and understanding about biology, the IOC states that “No athlete should be precluded from competing or excluded from competition on the exclusive ground of an unverified, alleged, or perceived unfair competitive advantage due to their […]
Is this the start of a cooler shift? Cap Allon of Electroverse notes that we may be in for another La Nina:
The La Niña climate pattern is forecast to make a return this fall and last through the winter of 2021-22, according to an official “alert” issued Thursday, July 8 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which suggests further global cooling as we enter the new year.
La Niña –-a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean-– is one of the main drivers of global weather — it is usually associated with colder global temperatures, droughts in the southern U.S., and increased precipitation in Australia.
Entering a La Niña event when global temperatures are already around baseline is significant.
If the climate pattern has the expected affect then we should brace for global temps to continue their overall downward trend –which began in 2016 (see link below)– to levels well below the norm.
We could conceivably be looking at UAH readings some 0.4C below the 30-year average by the spring of 2022.
A La Nina watch has been issued by CPC.
The updated run of the NMME has La Nina returning during late fall and early winter 2021. This progression is also supported by similar analog years. #ENSO pic.twitter.com/gPMVokOfDH
— Ethan Sacoransky (@blizzardof96) July 8, 2021
Read it all: https://electroverse.net/noaa-declares-la-nina-watch-for-the-fall-the-global-cooling-accelerator/
9.8 out of 10 based on 85 ratings
Here’s the next iconic graph in the climate non-debate.
It’s just another day in the continuing failure of climate models. In 68 simulations the climate experts repeatedly discover how a fantasy Earth was warmed twice as fast as the real Earth has.
The skillless failure of these models is obvious but it works as modern art.
The angry birds of confirmation bias lifted off in 1998 and haven’t landed on anything real for twenty years.
We paid researchers to find a crisis and we got what we paid for:
The latest model predictions versus what really happened. | Roy Spencer UAH
Many thanks to the great legendary Roy Spencer for his exemplary work at Royspencer.com
The Black line is the ERSST — The Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature data (the floating ARGO buoys, Hadley, and other acronyms.)
The models appear to have been retuned lately so that some of the coolest model runs barely include reality. It probably avoids more awkward questions.
9.9 out of 10 based on 78 ratings
Extinction Rebellion blockade the Murdoch Press in the UK because climate reporting is supposed to be one-sided
After thirty years of saturation media on climate change, XR realize there is absolutely nothing new they could say that hasn’t already been said 4,000 times. So they attack the newspapers that put forward a few opposing views among the wall-to-wall propaganda.This helps keep the compliant newspapers in line.
So any self respecting editor ought be asking: If Extinction Rebellion aren’t blocking us, what are we doing wrong?
Pity the poor newsagents and delivery boys and girls who lost money so XR could do grand-standing camping, blocking trucks and newspapers from getting out.
Extinction Rebellion: Printworks protest ‘completely unacceptable’ says Boris Johnson
More than 100 protesters used vehicles and bamboo lock-ons to block roads outside the printing works at Broxbourne, Hertfordshire, and Knowsley, near Liverpool. By Saturday morning, police said some 63 people had been arrested.
The presses print the Rupert Murdoch-owned News UK’s titles including The Sun, The Times, The Sun on Sunday and The Sunday Times, as well as The Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph, the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday, and the London […]
A telling incident in Western democracies about borders
The electoral power of strong borders is vastly underestimated.
Western Australia has hard borders at the moment, and no coronavirus — other than a few cases getting caught in the mandatory quarantine. That’s 2.5 million people who are almost living a normal life. This is not to boast (we wish you could be here), but to point out how politically popular closed borders are in the current pandemic. The Premier is wildly popular, polling close to 90%. To all the people who said “states can’t close borders” the message is that it’s bonkers not to close borders. When the Commonwealth government joined the bizarre High Court push to force them open, the pushback was ferocious. A poll today showed that West Australians are fed up. The West Australian collected 245,000 signatories to a petition supporting the border closure.
Not only do 96% say the borders should stay shut, but when asked, a whopping 34% of Western Australians said the state should secede. How fast did it come to that?
Never, have I seen such vitriol towards the Commonwealth from WA. …the Commonwealth’s decision to effectively join hands with […]
The most popular drug with doctors all over the world will seemingly now not even be allowed in the US for Covid related treatment: HCQ No Longer Approved Even a Little for COVID-19
Molly Walker, MedPage
The FDA rescinded its emergency use authorization (EUA) of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) to treat COVID-19 patients, citing concerns about efficacy and risks associated with its use, and saying the drug no longer meets the criteria for an EUA, the agency said on Monday.
Moreover, the FDA now says the benefits of the drug “no longer outweigh the potential risks,” citing the serious cardiac adverse events associated with the drug.
Comments underneath reveal just how contested this will be.
It’s a strange situation where patients in many poorer nations are being offered drugs that patients won’t be able to get in the richest nation in the world:
Substantial fractions of physicians treating Covid-19 patients in Europe and elsewhere report use of HCQ+AZ: 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the US, 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK (45), much of the non-US use […]
The US can no longer even make vitamin C or aspirin any more, or 80% of their antibiotics. Something like 90% of the starting chemicals for essential US medicines are made in Chinese factories. And there aren’t many alternatives — fully 70% of competing products from India start with chemicals from China too. And now Chinese companies are shifting up into generic drugs as well.
The West, asleep, let the takeover happen. Western companies were driven out of business trying to compete with Chinese companies which were are subsidized by the CCP. But we were happy to take the cheaper drugs. That was, until we discovered what huge leverage we have given China. It’s a
As Gibson points out — personnel of the US Navy in the South China Sea are thus “dependent on their adversary for their medicine.”
Azithromycin (the antibiotic in the favourite Coronavirus treatment trio) is made in China. So is propofol which is used with ventilators.
December last year:
U.S. policymakers worry about China ‘weaponizing’ drug exports
Doug Palmer and Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post
A watchdog report last month by the U.S.-China Economic […]
For forty years NASA satellites have been circling the Earth covering our landmass day and night. But yet again, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has released the obligatory “hottest ever year” media release without mentioning that it wasn’t the hottest year in the far more accurate satellite record of Australia, and that this new “record” depends entirely on adjustments and quite possibly on ignoring all the data recorded in the 1800s. Once again they miss the chance to remind Australians that it was almost certainly hotter for hundreds of years seven thousand years ago. Sea levels were higher then too.
They claim it’s the driest ever year, and maybe it was, but they don’t say that there is no trend in droughts and rainfall for the last 178 years.
So to help them out I’ve graphed UAH satellite temperature record which shows that last year was the 4th hottest year since 1979 when the UAH satellite data set begins.
Perhaps in 2020 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology will set their own record, and explain for the first time how and why they adjust their data continuously and post hoc. The Australian surface data is all changed with a mystical secret […]
ABC News Australia, from the Australian Institute of Criminology
Rapidly the word about the astonishing rate of arson and man-made accidents* is spreading, but it doesn’t help “the cause” (which for left-leaning journo’s appears to be getting left-leaning politicians elected).
For example, the awful Binna Burra fire in September was blamed on climate change. Instead it turned out to be caused by two teenagers with cigarette butts. Who looks silly pushing a carbon tax agenda to stop fires?
So The Guardian and the ABC are now compiling stories with conspiracy theories about how a thousand or so tweets with a pedantic error mistaking legal action for arrests somehow demonstrates a mysterious disinformation campaign (it’s pro-ject-ion.) The main mystery here is how a prof in Qld can mind read through twitter — Dr Graham tells us “The motivation underlying this often tends to not be changing people’s opinions about the bushfire itself and how it’s happening, but to sow discord and magnify already existing tensions in polarised political issues.”
Maybe people are just angry at the wanton, pointless and avoidable destruction, yeah?
The Love Media are downplaying the arrests in a situation where catching, charging and convicting people must be […]
All that global warming and nothing to show for it?
Headlines rang out telling Australians that last summer was the hottest ever. But, according to the UAH satellite series, the hottest — just barely — was in 1991, when CO2 was a wonderful, safe 356 ppm. Since then, humans have emitted more than half — fully 58% — of all the emissions we have ever emitted since we crawled out of those dank caves. CO2 levels are almost 50 ppm higher now, and temperatures are almost as high.*
Wonder if this summer will get close to the summer of 1991 (and we wonder if Victoria will keep the lights on).
…
The UAH data comes from NASA satellites, which cover all the Australian land mass every day and night.
The BOM (and NASA) prefers to use Australian ground data which is based on sparse thermometers that keep changing sites and equipment, are located near airport tarmacs, buildings, and cars. When readings are too cold, the BOM sometimes deletes them. Temperatures from thermometers hundreds of kilometers apart are magically homogenized and “corrected” through a secret computer process and two thirds of our warming comes from those adjustments, not from CO2 […]
Skeptics are now the brain-eating undead from Haitian Cult Voodoo. Just more namecalling in lieu of science. The ABC has become the US Weekly, TVWeek, or OK! of national policy, filled with inane clickbait animations, fictional stories and fantasy myths.
Looks like it’s projection again
Here’s a guy who believes that we control storms, floods and droughts with solar panels and wind turbines. The only climate zombie that needs hosing down is all his. He’s the one saying that the type of milk you drink, or your funeral service are to blame for random stuff like spotted quoll fertility, shark attacks, or tornadoes. Go vegan to save the planet!
Poor Nick Kilvert is so badly trained he can’t figure out why ideas like “CO2 feeds plants” just won’t die. The mystery of how the truth keeps coming back (despite their best efforts). So this weekend he put out a handy condescending guide of strawmen and mythical myths for beleaguered believers who are lost for answers to skeptical scientists. The man’s cult-like belief is so obvious, the real question we need to ask our elected MP’s is why are we funding an journalistic organization which has staff who are so incompetent, […]
But who doesn’t love using junk data to create a fake scare?
Another pound of panic with cherry picked data measured on junk equipment and adjusted by secret methods.
June 2019 was the hottest ever recorded on Earth: European satellite agency
New data released Tuesday found the average temperature in Europe for June 2019 was higher than any other June on record.
According to the data, the average temperature in June was more than 2 C above normal.
Earth is 4.5 billion years old and we’ve “recorded” 1 part in 35 million of the total climate history of Earth. It’s not only not the hottest on Earth ever, it’s not even the hottest in the last thirty years, according to UAH satellite data. Thanks to Roy Spencer.
June 1998 was hotter (and 16 other months) and thousands upon thousands of years
Since 1979 fully 17 months have been hotter than this last June, and if we had had satellites for 10,000 years, we’d have found thousands of Junes hotter than today. Even without satellites there is no respectable climate scientist on Earth who would argue that temperatures weren’t higher than this for most of life on […]
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