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The information war about astonishing arson figures

Rapidly the word about the astonishing rate of arson and man-made accidents* is spreading, but it doesn’t help “the cause” (which for left-leaning journo’s appears to be getting left-leaning politicians elected).

For example, the awful Binna Burra fire in September was blamed on climate change. Instead it turned out to be caused by two teenagers with cigarette butts. Who looks silly pushing a carbon tax agenda to stop fires?

So The Guardian and the ABC are now compiling stories with conspiracy theories about how a thousand or so tweets with a pedantic error mistaking legal action for arrests somehow demonstrates a mysterious disinformation campaign (it’s pro-ject-ion.)  The main mystery here is how a prof in Qld can mind read through twitter — Dr Graham tells us “The motivation underlying this often tends to not be changing people’s opinions about the bushfire itself and how it’s happening, but to sow discord and magnify already existing tensions in polarised political issues.”

Maybe people are just angry at the wanton, pointless and avoidable destruction, yeah?

The Love Media are downplaying the arrests in a situation where catching, charging and convicting people must be near impossible, so 24 arrests already for arson this season is remarkable. What’s more important to the nation, preventing arson, saving wilderness, or proof-reading-type errors on social media?

Firstly: Most of these fires are man-made but it’s arson and accidental* not climate change:

In NSW alone 24 people have been charged, with legal action happening against 180 in total ( that’s just in NSW)

NSW Police take legal action against more than 180 people

6 Jan 2020. NSW Police: Since Friday 8 November 2019, legal action – which ranges from cautions through to criminal charges – has been taken against 183 people – including 40 juveniles – for 205 bushfire-related offences.

  • 24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires
  • 53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and
  • 47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.

A US study estimates that 85% of fires are man-made (both accidental and deliberate):

Janet Stanley, Associate Professor at Melbourne University’s Sustainable Society Institute, The Conversation.

Experts estimate about 85% of bushfires are caused by humans. A person may accidentally or carelessly start a fire, such as leaving a campfire unattended or using machinery which creates sparks. Or a person could maliciously light a fire.

But official fires are just the tip of the iceberg: the actual number of bushfires in Australia is thought to be about five times that recorded. Virtually none of these unrecorded fires are investigated.

A Western Australian study from 2012 estimates 43% of fires in WA are deliberate arson, 22% of fires are due to lightning, 13% are accidental, 2% are escaped from hazard reduction, and 20% are unknown.

Secondly: the misinformation misinformation campaign

The ABC and The Guardian readers are being taken for a ride:

Fires misinformation being spread through social media

By Kevin Nguyen and Ariel Bogle, ABC news

Australia’s bushfire emergency is being exploited on social media, as misinformation is spread through cyberspace via hundreds of thousands of posts.

  • Bushfire discussion on social media is attracting a high number of “bot-like and troll-like accounts”
  • Some of the misinformation includes the idea left-wing “ecoterrorists” are behind some fires
  • The lies are highly sharable, which means they can spread faster than the truth

They don’t mention that four people from a Brazilian green NGO have been arrested in relation to starting fires in the Amazon. We don’t know if they were guilty, or what the evidence is. They deny it, and we hope they get a fair trial. Regardless, the ABC etc are already trying to brand “the idea” of eco-terrorism as misinformation and a conspiracy. Who’s in denial that there might be a motivation in the means-to-an-ends crowd who are hyped up by propaganda about the end-days of climate change ?

The ABC found some of the suspicious accounts were amplifying unproven suggestions arson had been the overwhelming cause of Australia’s disastrous bushfire season.

Suspicious accounts like those of professors? The only details of this study may be here on Znet that I can find.

The Guardian is almost a mini-ABC:

Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’

Christopher Knaus, The Guardian, @knausc

Online posts exaggerating the role of arson are being used to undermine the link between bushfires and climate change

Bot and troll accounts are involved in a “disinformation campaign” exaggerating the role of arson in Australia’s bushfire disaster, social media analysis suggests. The bushfires burning across the nation have been accompanied by repeated suggestions of an arson epidemic or “arson emergency”.

With a million tweets on climate change and fires, why is this tiny hashtag so important? Maybe some of these are fakes, but how many fakes are shouting about a #ClimateEmergency? Who knows, and don’t ask. Nothing to see here comrade.

The Queensland University of Technology senior lecturer on social network analysis Dr Timothy Graham examined content published on the #arsonemergency hashtag on Twitter, assessing 1,340 tweets, 1,203 of which were unique, published by 315 accounts.

His preliminary analysis found there is likely a “current disinformation campaign” on Twitter’s #arsonemergency hashtag due to the “suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts”.

He similarly found a large number of suspicious accounts posting on the #australiafire and #bushfireaustralia hashtags.

Lord help us. Now he realizes there is hyped up polarisation?

“Australia suddenly appears to be getting swamped by mis/disinformation as a result of this environmental catastrophe, and we are suffering the consequences in terms of hyped up polarisation and an increased difficulty and inability for citizens to discern truth,” Graham told the Guardian.

The Prof finds there’s “likely” a disinformation campaign in a thousand tweets and that means the nation is “swamped”? Tell me again who’s hyping and polarizing the news?  The Guardian practically IS a misinformation campaign.

A search on “The Guardian arson”  and “abc.net.au arson”, or “theguardian.com arson arrests” turns up almost no other headlines about the large number of  Australian arsonists?

Information is our friend. The poor sods reading The Guardian and The ABC will go out loaded with nothing-burger conspiracies and indignant outrage and get squashed in any real forum.

 UPDATE: The Daily Mail says arrests in other states are large too :

Color me skeptical, because their headline looks a bit sloppy. I would like links to police news releases or more reliable numbers.

In Queensland, police have arrested 101 people accused of starting bushfires, 69 juveniles and 32 adults.

Five people were arrested for allegedly setting bushland alight in Tasmania – and a further 10 in South Australia.

Meanwhile in Victoria, where locals have experienced some of the most catastrophic conditions the nation has ever seen, 43 people were charged with firebug offences.

H/t to Travis. Thank you. And Dave B and Panda.

* Arson is not the same as an accident — a word that has just been added in two spots to make the point clear. There must be malicious intent. h/t DryLiberal.

REFERENCE:

More information on that study: https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/

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Rating: 9.7/10 (100 votes cast)
The information war about astonishing arson figures, 9.7 out of 10 based on 100 ratings

419 comments to The information war about astonishing arson figures

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    the dastardly “Russian bots’! strike again, when will their reign of terror end?

    145

    • #
      WXcycles

      The Russians launched a monumental disinfo operation surrounding their annexation of Crimea, theft of the Ukrainian navy, and the separatist war in Donbass. The mass-media, Democrats and insiders may then have adopted it after Nov 2016 as an excuse for why they lost the US election, but there’s no question that the Russians were very active in a major electronic, media and trolling disinformation campaign, from Feb 2014 through until at least Oct 2016. And they haven’t stopped, they just took their foot off the accelerator and got their reps to say, “What? Us? We didn’t do nuffin’”, etc.

      Ignoring what the Russians did or pretending they’re ‘innocent’, truthful, harmless or our friends, is not truthful, and nor does it help anything but the spread lies and more of the same insidious activities.

      712

      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        In case you hadn’t noticed, every non leftist meme, the left blames on Russian bots, just like they blame Russian bots for Trump’s election win.

        142

        • #
          WXcycles

          Of course I noticed, I even mentioned it. But that is no reason to let the Russians off the hook for what they do, or to cut them slack they don’t deserve. Just because the Lefties take that tangent does not mean the opposite position is valid or true (although that is the narrative the Russians have been actively pushing).

          74

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            We are going to know that the Russians are exercising too much control over the US, when the Congress jumps up and down clapping a visiting Russian like trained seals. The whole Russian thing was an obvious diversion from the deep state.

            43

      • #
        glen Michel

        [Off Topic. Unrelated comments will be snipped. Sorry. Interesting but Take it elsewhere. Not #1 ]

        60

    • #
      hatband

      No one has claimed these arsonists are Eco-Terrorists, and there’s absolutely no proof of tha,

      nor is it remotely likely.

      That’s Gaslighting, setting up a Strawman, and steering the discussion up a blind alley.

      75

      • #
        Latus Dextro

        “….nor is it remotely likely.”

        Rank assumption. Brazilian firemen arrested for starting Amazon fire. Common theme. Eco-Terrorism. Nothing beyond the neo-Marxist globalist desperados.
        Notwithstanding that, it would appear considerably more productive to hold to account those responsible for the policies and implementation of forest and land management practices in Australia. Arrest doesn’t seem unreasonable under the circumstances, particularly for those charged with the safety and security of the community, those that have instigated the destruction of life, livestock and property pursuing vacant ideology against a backdrop of evidence-informed historical experience.

        131

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        What about also: “down a mineshaft” and up a blind alley.

        31

    • #
      pattoh

      XR – bots?

      50

    • #
      Geoff

      Green extremists caught doing extreme stuff. Who’d have thought?

      Extremist profiling not done just in case it upsets the extremists. Placate our nutters with money. Sure to work. What do you mean they want more?

      Don’t these [snip] have children? They ALWAYS want more if you give them stuff without requiring respect.

      30

  • #
    Mal

    Remember why you can’t have a rational argument with the green exo fascist.
    They’re “fact”wits

    260

    • #
      Mh

      You can’t have a rational discussion with greens because they know global warming is BS and the fires a just an opportunity to secure more government funding for their agendas

      182

    • #
      hatband

      2 fools can’t have a rational discussion.

      The issue is that these fires have been deliberately lit, the ABC and Guardian [Australia] appear

      prepared to concede Lone Wolf Arsonists, but that’s it, no further.

      24 Arsonists acting independently of each other can’t cause this sort of havoc.

      I suggest that it’s coordinated, nothing to do with ”Greenies”, and relevant information as

      to how these people were apprehended should paint a different picture..

      75

      • #

        I’m not suggesting that it’s coordinated. I wonder how much any arsonist tendencies that are already there are being brought out, triggered, as a side effect of the non-stop apocalyptic news coverage.

        It’s become like a reality TV show with the emotional reporting and fixation on individual semi-”celebs” almost. Possibly some want to “join the show” as it were.

        Though I assume some of that would still happen even if the reporting were dispassionate, and nor am I suggesting the news-vultures want to trigger anyone. Possibly they would even say that they don’t want to report on arson lest it encourage copy cats. But if it’s such a dominant cause, surely we as a nation need to talk about that…

        360

        • #

          I’m thinking the same. With our refuse media and perpetual screen time too many have fire and arson on the brain.

          People at the Golden Globes think absent Rusty is still fighting last November’s blaze because, hey, Australia = fire, right? And that would be the only reason you’d miss a ceremony with the cream of Hollywood’s gerbil racers.

          I’ve been in the middle of it here on the midcoast and it hasn’t been fun. Useful sites to locate fire, anticipate wind etc have been a big help, and making sure I keep the rest of the media turned OFF has also been a big help. The trouble is, a lot of people far from the problem are doing all they can to magnify it. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the firebugs are feeling closer to celebrity right now.

          190

          • #

            You forgot to mention Gee up.

            32

            • #

              I was thinking more about the paid upper echelons. GeeUppers spread climate panic by hanging about blogs and doing grass-rooty, true believer things for free or for peanuts. (Mind you, I think they’d be surprised at the Soros money that stops just above the grass roots. Maybe we should call them mushroom mycellum true believers.)

              100

        • #

          We’re living in an age of activism, Anti-Fa, Revolution X etc,… truth to data, the facts of the matte become expendable when ends justify the means. This is the scenario when you’re experiencing a totalitarian take-over… pre WW2 Germany, Mao’s Cultural Revolution, Orwell’s Oceania. ‘Truth is Lies’, ‘War is Peace,’ ‘Two Legs whatever’…what can you believe?’

          O Socrates, O Galilio, O Feynma! :(

          121

        • #
          hatband

          An Arsonist isn’t necessarily a firebug.

          We now know that these fires have been caused by Arsonists.

          To be repeating the Official Line about Firebugs, and worrying about triggering them is making a lot of assumptions with no evidence.

          The Authorities are circling the wagons and have now declared ”Firebugs” to be the problem.

          I’m saying let’s ignore that, it’s spin. Let’s ask to see the Evidence.

          40

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            A firebug ( pyromaniac) has a mental illness

            Arson is a deliberate criminal act of setting a fire which indicates understanding it’s wrong and doing it anyway.

            If the authorities are saying we have “firebug problems”, does that mean they are saying we have a bunch of mentally ill people running around setting fires……?

            It’s a long bow to pull….desperate stuff really….

            110

            • #

              They will be charged with arson not fire buggery regardless of whether they have a mental illness. It will be for the courts to convict based on their mental state.

              70

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    The Guardian is the ‘house’ paper for the BBC, and where they advertise positions. Indeed the sales to the BBC have been said to keep the paper (almost) afloat.

    Given the slavish dependence of the ABC on big brother, perhaps you should reverse “The Guardian is almost a mini-ABC”.

    100

    • #

      I know people who actually give money to the Guardian to keep it afloat. They think it’s a source of unbiased news.

      201

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Like socialism…always needs other peoples money…

        Maggie Thatcher was right…..

        122

        • #
          PeterS

          It doesn’t stop there. Socialism of all types end up with bloodshed and tears after they have “stolen” our money.

          80

        • #
          hatband

          Maggie Thatcher was right…..

          About shutting down the British Coal Industry, her main claim to fame?

          513

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            About Socialism….it uses other peoples money because its an inherently unstable collapsing 100% failure rate paradigm…

            91

          • #
            Davidsb

            Hi hatband -

            You are, I presume, aware that Baroness Thatcher’s Conservative government closed fewer coal mines that the previous Labour administration?

            And that a large part of the miners’ strike conflict related to not allowing the Scargill-led NUM to compel moderate UDM miners to support the NUM’s attempt to “shut down the British Coal Industry”?

            And that Baroness Thatcher’s main claims to fame include privatisation of state-run industries, deregulation of industry and commerce, trade union reform, and (in tandem with her friend President Reagan) bringing about an end to the Cold War.

            Apart from that, you are spot on.

            161

            • #
              mikewaite

              Oh, and rescuing the Falkland Islanders from the fascist generals from Argentina, an enterprise most of the world said would be impossible,but was achieved through determination by Maggie and incredible bravery and sacrifice by the UK armed forces.

              181

              • #
                Grant (NZ)

                Exactly what I was going to reply. Just read “Vulcan 607″. Great insight into the RAF’s contribution to the Falklands war.

                90

            • #
              WXcycles

              … and (in tandem with her friend President Reagan) bringing about an end to the Cold War.

              They didn’t do this, although they certainly kept up the pressure. But the Russians and wider Soviet-Bloc were falling apart for a long time before they even came to power due to their own internal production failures (especially food) plus decades of chronic demoralization. Plus a hopeless costly war against US-armed Pakistani proxies, which was constantly destroying their best battlefield hardware. Russia was broke malnourished and hungry when the Iron-Curtain finally fell down largely from within. Gorbachev wanted to end the Cold war because Russian was finished and he was too weak to take a hardline domestically, because the State was weak. Plus it happened after Bush (Sn) had already been President for 18 months, and Thatcher was also weakened, on the way out the door, replaced by John Major the same year. Bush and Major presided over the end of the Soviet Union.

              I was never as impressed with Reagan as I was with Thatcher. She was more coherent, more incisive and more scary. Thatcher gave Reagan added spine and determination, not the other way around. They were competitors, and Reagan couldn’t allow the public perception that he was being upstaged by a British PM with a ‘boof’ hair-do and handbag.

              40

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                I recall an Afghan fighter could kill a Ruskie tank by sneaking up behind it and shoving rags into the exhaust until it stalled, then the afghanis had a field day…..

                One young Russian I met had emigrated to Oz, as all his mates had been killed in Afghanistan…..nothing to go home for. Sad really at age 20 that you have to do that…..

                50

            • #
              hatband

              Natural Monopolies ought not be Privatised.

              Where that’s happened, it’s been a disaster.

              How many Coal Mines Labour shut down is irrelevant to the argument

              Some people on this site regularly call for more CFPSs to be built, yet they laud

              Thatcher, who caused no more CFPSs to be built in the U.K., and was an early champion

              of Global Warming.

              41

  • #

    Quadrant has a good article about our politicians: https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2020/01/good-for-you-craig-kelly/. I know who I would not vote for if they were in my electorate.

    100

  • #
    theRealUniverse (in NZ)

    Fires can only start with suitable ignition. Either it gets lit deliberately or started by another fire by embers or other transfer mechanism. Excluding lightning, not much in the present case. High temps, over 40 cant ignite bush on its own.
    Something smells.

    131

    • #
      Mh

      They call this an “environmental disaster. It’s actually a Law Enforcement disaster

      70

    • #
      Bob Fernley-Jones

      The Australian reports afresh today:

      Bushfires: Firebugs fuelling crisis as national arson arrest toll hits 183

      https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bushfires-firebugs-fuelling-crisis-asarson-arresttollhits183/news-story/52536dc9ca9bb87b7c76d36ed1acf53f

      This follows an earlier Oz report and a variant in the SMH on 6 January:

      Legal action taken against 183 people this bushfire season

      https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-fires-legal-action-taken-against-183-people-this-bushfire-season-20200106-p53p97.html

      Has anyone heard any commentary on the ABC or SBS etcetera?

      61

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Ive sent the link to at least one relative ( who knows many people ) showing one newspaper denying arsonists have been active, and the other link showing 200 people had been charged with arson….it illustrates perfectly what appears to be the blatant propaganda campaign by the left wing gutter media to try the truth of both arson and fuel build up being the main problem, from getting out into the public….

        80

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Heres a novel idea – proper firebreaks and nothing to burn…..

      https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-billionaire-whose-plan-helped-save-a-town-from-bushfire-20200108-p53pvo.html

      “When the Currowan fire hit the biggest equestrian centre on the NSW South Coast before Christmas, evacuation was out of the question for its owner Terry Snow.

      “Willinga Park, surrounded by Meroo and Murramarang national parks, spans 2000 acres with Olympic-sized equestrian arenas as well as native gardens with over 11,000 trees. Mr Snow, who is the
      chairman of Capital Airport Group and has a holiday home in Bawley Point, had long been planning for a fire event like this.

      “”We couldn’t evacuate. It couldn’t be done – we’ve got 650 cattle, 120 horses and 30 staff,” he said. “We weren’t naive, we’d been expecting and preparing for years and always engaged a fire consultant. We followed his advice to the letter and were so grateful that we did.”

      “The Canberra-born billionaire saved the property. But the 77-year-old’s intricate fire plan has also been credited as part of the reason the nearby coastal town of Bawley Point escaped annihilation in the firestorm that swept through the region last month.
      …….
      “”We had a big loader to run along the ground and remove debris [along fire trails],” he said.

      “Mr Snow’s team was also able to use two large water trucks with a combined capacity of 2300 litres.

      “”We had 10-15 employees on rotation to ensure the fire line was always covered,” he said.

      50

  • #
    nb

    The real story, and the real ABC fear:
    ‘Bushfire discussion on social media’ is out of our control.

    200

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    The MSM have learnt to monitor this blog…but they are always playing catch up…..always second place…..

    But wait…..lets also put a strain on stretched police …how considerate….putting the community in danger through selfishness.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-08/bushfire-protests-planned-melbourne-a-resource-drain-say-police/11851626

    “The organisers of an anti-Scott Morrison protest planned for Melbourne on Friday say the event will go ahead, despite police asking them to reconsider the “resource drain” on a day when fire activity is expected to flare across Victoria.

    “The event, organised by Uni Students for Climate Justice, is one of several planned across the country on Friday and is expected to shut down parts of the CBD from 6:00pm.

    “But Acting Assistant Commissioner Tim Hansen urged “fair-minded Victorians” to reconsider attending the climate demonstration, which about 12,000 people have said they would attend on Facebook.

    “He said police were still actively engaged in supporting their emergency services colleagues in bushfire zones, working in fire-ravaged communities and facilitating evacuations while dealing with day-to-day policing.

    “”We will meet those obligations, but this is a distraction for us,” he said.

    “”We see frontline police returning from the fire ground, returning from the fire zone that are fatigued, that do need a break, and this is now another operation we need to resource.”

    130

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    A comment (#66) about fire, fire season, and the starting of fires.
    Hope y’all will check it out on the “Weekend Unthreaded”.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/weekend-unthreaded-292/#comment-2251824

    70

  • #
    John Hutton

    Welcome to the new denier conspiracy theory.

    Without any proof, they are trying to start a conspiracy that eco-terrorists are committing arson in order to further the alarmist AGW agenda.

    No proof of this at all. But Nova and her ilk put it forward as if it has as much science behind it as the obvious and scientifically evidenced certainty that climate change drought and global warming have exacerbated fires in all countries where we are seeing them.

    Deniers are reaching peak absurdity.

    You people are being taken for a ride.

    Please send money and chocolate.

    431

    • #

      The only ones starting conspiracies are the ABC and The Guardian.

      I’m merely pointing out actual arrests and obvious motivations.

      Hutton appears with namecalling, full assertions, and no evidence.

      So J Hutton, show you are not just a namecaller in a science debate. Which observation, which data do we deny? If you can’t find any we’ll expect an apology for namecalling before you can post again. These threads are far too polluted with kindergarden unscientific namcalling.

      271

      • #
        Warpath

        The RFS leaders have already refuted this arson meme, but what would they know?.

        321

        • #

          Anonymous commenter says unnamed RFS leader asserts something vague.

          Yes well I”m convinced.

          220

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Given the number of new galahs that have landed on the fence just recently to dispense their “wisdom”, clearly this blog has bitten the climitariat hard in the rear end, and they are panicking…..

            Truth scares them…..power is maintained via deception.

            170

          • #
            Warpath

            I see why you’re stuck here.
            Turn on the news…
            Biologist’s evidence against agw fails, so
            starts own blog swamp.
            Wonders why she’s ignored by scientists.

            321

            • #

              Kool aid on tap eh?

              Stick around Warpath we all know why skeptics are ignored by scientists.

              150

              • #
                Warpath

                You’re ignored because:

                The whole world is against you in a globally orchestrated campaign.
                OR,
                Like a flat earthier, your evidence fails scrutiny ?

                Occum’s chainsaw

                313

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Warpath – wrong on both accounts….

                Sceptics are ignored because most scientists of them are too gutless or too scared to speak up.

                The thing is, the Left hates truth.

                There is no truth in the Left.

                They are a moral vacuum.

                Why would the truth of the fires being caused by artificial limitation of hazard reduction burning be allowed by the Left to be kept in the public eye, when the Big Lie of Goebbels proportions of fires being attributed to climate change is what they want to put out there? The Big Lie is what they live, because the live of truth is not in them.

                Evil hates the light of truth, because it loves darkness. Bad stuff happens in the dark….

                121

              • #
                AndyG55

                Poor warpath.

                It is noted that you totally refuse, (incapable), to produce any evidence of even the most basic conjecture behind your whacked-out AGW religion

                So sad to see someone so pathetically brain-washed.

                110

            • #
              AndyG55

              Waiting for your evidence that human caused climate change EVEN EXISTS.

              Come on.. show us your science.

              Start with empirical evidence of warming by increased atmospheric CO2.

              Bring something, otherwise you are just another AGW brain-washed mindless twerp.

              140

      • #
        John Hutton

        Name calling? A quick read through the posts and comments here shows a site that is not much more that a haven for name-calling and abuse.

        Evidence? You claim an astonishing rate of arson – where is your evidence the rate of arson is unusual or in any way linked to the scale of the fires? The “sceptic” crowd are the ones trying to assert without proof that the fires are unprecedented because of back-burning failures and the rate of arson.

        Make hay. The sun is setting.

        312

        • #
          AndyG55

          Evidence of AGW?

          PRODUCE IT !!!

          … or continue to make a MOCKERY of your AGW claims.

          [snip]

          40

        • #
          glen Michel

          A bit above your intellectual station John. As I have often said there are 3 categories for believers in man-made climate change: the malicious, the mischievous and the brain-dead ignorant. Which box are you in. I’ll assume that you’re the useful idiot.

          31

    • #
      AndyG55

      DATA, JH.

      Lots of arsonists..

      Why DENY data ?

      Are you a brain-washed leftist to whom actual data is incompatible ? [Careful, Andy.] AZ

      130

      • #
        AndyG55

        AZ,

        There is no doubt that real data has no affect on the brain-washing of these leftist AGW shills.

        Why should I be “careful” about stating facts. ?

        [You need not be careful at all when you state facts. You do need to remember that calling someone brainwashed is a personal attack and violates Jo's rues for commenting. You need to notice that others are commenting about you and it does not reflect well on you. What you say is much more powerful if you leave off the insult.] AZ

        40

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          “shills” is not data, or a fact. Insults are just insults. If lucky, an insult is all that can be harvested in return.

          10

          • #
            AndyG55

            AGW is all about NOT-DATA. !

            As these climate apostles keep showing us.

            Shill : One who publicly promotes another’s cause, especially in an extravagant or misleading way

            00

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              The long explanation of a shill is better than a slogan.

              00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Way too many slogans/one-liners in the world already. Better explanations are better.

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                For example, the word ‘world’ means space travel to an astronomer and gravity etc to a physicist, money to the economist and so on.

                00

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              World is associated to Plants/animals/viruses/etc to the biologist…”One who publicly promotes another’s cause, especially in an extravagant or misleading way” is good. Understood!

              00

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Personal experience.

            00

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Don’y worry about us John, try keeping you’re feral Greens down to a dull scream so more people don’t die.

      131

      • #
        hatband

        What are you talking about?

        No serious person is suggesting that ”Feral Greens” have had anything to do with the bushfires,

        let alone caused any deaths.

        You appear to be reinforcing John Hutton’s comment.

        19

        • #
          MudCrab

          No, not Feral Greens. Unlike other feral animals in the bush like pigs and cats, Feral Greens do surprisingly little damage, provided of cause you always stand downwind.

          It is the Common or Latte Green that is the most destructive. These are the people who have forced policy and allowed devastating fuel build up, and yes, EVERYONE sans Getup! and the ABC is suggesting this.

          Greens, young Hatband, cause bushfires.

          101

          • #
            Andrew McRae

            Yes the Feral Greens support the native wildlife, which is good. However Latté Greens are also capable of the same good behaviour in an instagram emergency, it’s just not normal for them.
            Here is a recent photo of a green supporting wildlife at a rehab centre.
            https://i.imgur.com/kmw4urC.jpg
            It can be difficult to determine the subspecies of Green by appearance alone, although pink hair suggests a Latté Green. The Feral Greens are the all-natural types and tend to keep their natural hair colouring, preferring to modify their plumage through either dreadlocks or shaving it off completely rather than colouring.

            We should salute our Feral and Latté Greens for rising to the occasion in our cuddly critters’ time of need.
            Except that saluting will be interpreted as imperialistic. :-D

            20

      • #
        John Hutton

        Ferals can’t even spell, right?

        03

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      obvious and scientifically evidenced certainty that climate change drought and global warming have exacerbated fires

      Climate is always changing.

      The climate change religion merely posits CAGW as a fact then attributes any unusual weather event to it after the fact “post hoc ergo propter hoc” ["after this, therefore because of this."]

      ie “Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.” That is, in the instant case: “Since event Y [bushfires] followed event X ['climate change'], event Y must have been caused by event X.”

      That is not science.

      150

      • #
        Rick

        It is amusing how dry, hot, and windy is climate change or global warming while cold, wet, or snowy is just weather.
        It is also funny how unusual becomes “unprecedented” in spite of evidence to the contrary.

        140

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘ … a conspiracy that eco-terrorists are committing arson in order to further the alarmist AGW agenda.’

      That is incorrect, nobody in their right mind takes that idea seriously, but clearly juvenile fire bugs need closer scrutiny by the media. Singlehandedly they have produced more CO2 emissions than all our coal fired power stations, there should be a law against it.

      100

    • #
      Grant (NZ)

      “Without any proof, they are trying to start a conspiracy that eco-terrorists are committing arson in order to further the alarmist AGW agenda.”

      I think you are projecting. The article was very careful to avoid the insinuation that you have just made here. Maybe you are privy to some information that lead you to jump to this conclusion. (but then that is pure speculation on my part).

      120

    • #
      william x

      John.

      Why do you class myself or anyone on this site as a denier.

      John, I am not a denier.

      as an example below I will respond, re your comment above.

      John, I cannot deny, that what you have posted above is ignorance in science, influenced by ideology.

      As you can see I am not a denier.

      70

      • #
        John Hutton

        That’s going to have them rolling in the aisles Willy. Smarter than climate scientists and funny. The talent abounds here.

        08

        • #
          AndyG55

          “The talent abounds here.”

          Pity you can never be art of that talent.

          Destined to be forever an empty science-free vassal.

          10

    • #
      Reed Coray

      John, thanks for reminding me to send “money and chocolate.” Sometimes I forget.

      60

    • #
      James Poulos

      Hi John,

      Long time no see.

      I heard you were out.

      Why do you continue to protest something you believe in…

      … and please stop calling me at work.

      70

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      It’s not like it hasn’t happened before …

      World Wildlife Federation Paid $70,000 to Activists who Set Fire to Amazon Forest
      “They started a blaze then took pictures which they sold to the World Wildlife Federation for large sums of cash.”
      https://granitegrok.com/blog/2019/11/world-wildlife-federation-paid-70000-to-activists-who-set-fire-to-amazon-forest

      50

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      John,

      I think you meant “elk”.

      20

  • #
    Yonniestone

    “Before You Embark On A Journey Of Revenge, Dig Two Graves”

    [Snip] [Yonnie effectively said there is an ugly situation here where a lot of good people may have lost a lot, and may feel that the current system has failed them... -- Jo].

    [Yonnie, strongly negative phrasing here is prone to being misinterpreted even though you are talking about a situation you don't want to happen. - jo]

    81

    • #
      hatband

      Note that in no way do I condone or encourage any of this behaviour,..

      ”This sort of behaviour” hasn’t happened, won’t happen, and the only person suggesting it is you.

      The Issue is now Arson of the forest.

      The Media have admitted this, so forget about their rationalisations, and ask why they’ve been

      covering it up since at least as far back as November 2019.

      42

      • #
        Yonniestone

        I suggest you look at the history of your politics and see what happened when good people were pushed too far, this is not a dissimilar situation.

        Media as you know has been controlled by the left in this country for years, cover ups are nothing surprising.

        82

        • #
          hatband

          The history of Australia is that we obey the law, accept the umpires decision,

          and help the next bloke if he’s in trouble.

          You are trying to deflect the issue by Gaslighting Australians, which is pretty low.

          16

          • #
            Yonniestone

            Your a Warmist troll how low can you get?

            You wouldn’t know Australia if it bit you on the a$% comrade.

            82

            • #
              hatband

              You wouldn’t know Australia if it bit you on the a$% comrade.

              Your American spelling of the highlighted word appears to indicate that you’re not

              real familiar with the Australian vernacular at all, cobber.

              11

    • #
      PeterS

      How far it will go is anyone’s guess but if we learn anything from history the civil violence will end with at least some bloodshed and tears.

      41

      • #
        hatband

        What are you talking about?

        We’ve never had Civil Violence.

        The only people suggesting it are trying to deflect from the issue of Arsonists in the forests.

        By Gaslighting the victims.

        35

        • #
          PeterS

          I was referring to the history of other nations.

          21

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          During WW2 , some communists on the Melbourne docks refused to load resupply ships.

          In the ensuing escalation with the police, revolvers were drawn by the communists and discharged, but the police killed them all in return fire.

          It seems the Left just loves violence, but the brave police mopped up the troublemakers in a legal stoush, and order restored.

          One thing the hard Left just can’t get through their very thick skulls is that good people will always stand against such thugs and prevail. Every time.

          The hard Left appear to be infected with something similar to Toxoplasma gondii……

          100

          • #
            hatband

            Never heard that one.

            Colebatch didn’t mention it in his book, and Tom Hills never mentioned it in his

            recollections of 50 years on the Melbourne Wharves.

            Could you provide a link to the incident?

            32

          • #
            beowulf

            Actually we used to have quite a bit of civil strife.

            The miners’ strike of 1949 when Labor PM Ben Chifley sent in the army to work the mines to get the trains and power stations working again. Communist-inspired.

            Then there is the biggy — the Rothbury Riot 1929 near Branxton, Hunter Valley.

            • 5,000 miners marched to the mine led by a pipe band, protesting a 10 month lockout when mine owners sought to cut wages.
            • The miners were coaxed and pressured into being there by the union.
            • Police from other areas were brought in to take on miners because local police were suspected of being in sympathy with the miners.
            • 1 (a by-stander) shot dead by police, 3 critically wounded and 45 injured, some shot in the legs and back, mainly from ricochets (allegedly).
            • Bullets passed through nearby homes.
            • Police families were hastily evacuated from nearby towns because things were getting very nasty with retaliatory threats against the police.
            • 7,000 at the funeral.
            • An editorial of Tuesday December 17, 1929 describes the riot as being organised by a ‘party of extremist[s] who call themselves Communists’.

            61

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              This is a good sample from colebatch via Miranda Devine….

              https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/miranda-devine/unions-exposed-as-war-saboteurs/news-story/4687d3974404971de3d3e5626769fdc7

              Still looking for the other reference….

              71

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Thanks for putting that up Steve, it’s time Australians were allowed to know about the World War two union behaviour; disgusting.

                Wars between countries and within countries are always ugly and hiding relevant information about ugly behaviour simply increases the potential to Manipulate otherwise reasonable people.

                At the moment in Australia the media has become the new Ugly because it filters and interprets the news to guide us, for our own good of course.

                With two major world wars and many serious conflicts it could be said that last century was the century of war and humanity paid a terrible price.

                Currently we don’t seem to be heading anywhere different in too many parts of the world but there is hope as shown recently by Britain and the United States.

                Leadership is the key: and that’s a whole nother problem. In recent years I’ve been made aware that politics in Australia is heavily focused on getting elected and then reaping the rewards as quickly as possible. The voters can go to hell or, as currently, to the fires.

                The Media?

                KK

                61

            • #
              beowulf

              The Sydney wharves were the same as Melbourne. General Macarthur used to tear his hair out at the attitude of Australian wharfies during the war.

              Likewise the Garden Island Dockyard where my father worked in the latter war years was riven with demarcation disputes between trades, orchestrated by the Communist union bosses that ran the dockyard workforce.

              71

            • #
              hatband

              Rothbury, eh?

              Here, i’ll raise you South Johnstone in 1927, where a sniper shot dead a striker in FNQ.
              In the ensuing escalation with the police, revolvers were drawn by the communists and discharged, but the police killed them all in return fire.
              How about Premier T.J. Ryan sending police armed with carbines toaTownsville Wharf Strike in 1918>
              Result: 4 strikers shot dead.
              But, we’re not talking about that.

              Original Steve said, at 8.55p.m.:

              In the ensuing escalation with the police, revolvers were drawn by the communists and discharged, but the police killed them all in return fire.

              Still waiting for the tiniest bit of evidence that that happened.

              12

            • #
              hatband

              Actually we used to have quite a bit of civil strife.

              Where’s the ”Civil Strife’ there?

              The Cops fired at a Mass Meeting of Locked Out Coal Miners in 1931.

              Q. Why were they ”Locked Out”?

              A: Because the Mine Owners paid the Union to get the men out on Strike in order to

              close the Mine and avoid paying redundancies.

              Classic case of Capitalist/Union collusion/corruption, it’s still happening today.

              Sure, it was Capital attacking Labour, but it was a One Off, and

              that was the end of it.

              23

    • #
      hatband

      Concern Trolling, plus Gaslighting, eh?

      Paid per comment by any chance, comrade?

      36

  • #
    el gordo

    The ABC is a state run organisation, just like the source for this news item on arsonists.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/07/c_138684643.htm

    Two state run organisations, equally lacking credibility, but good for comparative testing on propaganda techniques.

    40

  • #
    pandas

    Given Police investigations into the cause and origins of the fires are ongoing, and police are appealing to the community for any information, however trivial. Are these stories suggesting bushfire arson is a disinformation campaign, obstruction of justice?

    If people believe the suggestions that “climate change” causes fires, not arson, why send intel to police?

    180

    • #

      Good point. The ABC won’t be helping the police gather information.

      160

      • #
        John Hutton

        That’s their job is it? And you? You’re helping to catch arsonists in between Internet begging, right?

        38

        • #
          AndyG55

          ABC’s job is to put forward UNBIASED, FACTUAL news.

          A thing at which they are a TOTAL FAILURE.

          You seem to have absolutely nothing to offer towards rational scientific discussion.

          So what is your purpose here?

          60

        • #
          glen Michel

          All voluntary Johnny. Anyway, here we’ll be on the right side of history(for what its worth) and your grand delusion will leave you grovelling in the dirt. Get back to us with ANY proof that a cyclic uptick in temperatures causes hotter fires. You won’t, because you can’t. Maybe Garnaut or Flannery can help. Ha!

          50

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Pandas,
      It’s my understanding that task force Indarra was launched when it was decided that the two fires started NE of Albury were deemed to be suspicious, and rather quickly.
      I think it would be useful to produce a table of all the fires showing, for whole of NSW since October 1:
      time stamp of first report, location, name(s) of NP(s) affected, wind speed and direction at the time of ignition and forecast, distance from roads and houses, nature of ignition, police assessment and age(s) of people involved.
      And another one for each person involved – this one probably should be kept internal to the Police:
      age (again), schoolteacher(s) political membership, address, group members, car ownership/access, mobile phone etc messages in lead up.
      I think the results would be interesting.
      Cheers,
      Dave B

      20

  • #
    Ruairi

    Could some fires that arsonists Stoke,
    Be deliberately lit to provoke,
    A panic reaction,
    That climate inaction,
    Caused the very same fires they poke?

    180

  • #
    DryLiberal

    “…failing to comply with a total fire ban…” and “…allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land…” are not arson. Arson must be wiful and malicious.

    112

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      From a quick look, the standard in NSW seems to be recklessness, ie. actual foreseen risk; which is a bit less onerous than ‘wiful and malicious’.

      90

      • #

        DryLiberal. Good point. The Australian Insitute of Criminology says:

        https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab001

        Arson is the act of intentionally and maliciously destroying or damaging property through the use of fire. Within this definition there are four core elements:

        1. the lighting of fire – fire is the fundamental element of arson; if there is no fire lit, there is no arson (some legal definitions also include lighting explosives);
        2. intention or wilfulness – excludes fires started by natural causes or accidents;
        3. malice – excludes fires started intentionally with positive or legitimate intent; and
        4. property – there must be some kind of property or object that is burned.

        The element of intent is critical to a definition of arson.

        I shall make that clear in the post. It did strike me as odd…

        120

        • #
          Deplorable Lord Kek

          that link to the institute of criminology is a bit old if its face published date stands (Published: 9/11/2004)

          I was looking at: “CB v Director of Public Prosecutions (NSW)[1] has brought the mental element for ‘arson-type’ offences into sharp focus. These are offences involving damage to, or destruction of, various types of property or injury to, or the death of, persons from intentional or reckless acts of fire-setting. “:

          Anderson, John L — “Playing with Fire’: Contemporary Fault Issues in the Enigmatic Crime of Arson” [2016] UNSWLawJl 34; (2016) 39(3) UNSW Law Journal 950

          http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UNSWLJ/2016/34.html

          [which is still a bit old]

          70

      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        The Crime of Arson in New South Wales
        18/11/2019 by Sonia Hickey (Sydney Criminal Lawyers)

        https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/the-crime-of-arson-in-new-south-wales/

        40

    • #
      PeterS

      In NSW tough new penalties will apply for motorists and passengers who toss lit cigarettes out of a vehicle window. From 17 January 2020, motorists caught tossing a lit cigarette will be penalised five demerit points. This is the first time a demerit point penalty has been imposed on this type of offence.

      30

  • #
    DryLiberal

    That should be “wilful”!

    50

  • #
    TdeF

    The numbers of people charged are high for all states for 2019. Hundreds.

    Think for a second how many fires are started by people who are not caught?

    Are we talking thousands of firebugs?

    As for punishment, I think it is not going to work. What is needed is publicity, recognition and shaming. The media can help here as a public service, pointing out the loss of life, property, animals, bush. Putting people in jail and fining them is not going to stop it. Social pressure might help. Disgrace. Humiliation.

    And make the public aware of the scale of the problem, so that firstly they are on the lookout for these people and help stop them. Secondly so that instead of blaming ‘climate change’ for everything, we work to make sure the damage from fires is minimized.

    Bushfires are not avoidable, ultimately. But there should be no loss of life and if possible, no homes destroyed. That will take a real change of attitude from the inner city bush tourists. And an understanding that backburning is not only a nett benefit, it saves lives and property and animals.

    You cannot stop bushfires happening. But you can deal with the problem so much better without Green ignorance and interference. The same with coal power supplies. Everyone has to pay for these awful useless windmills.

    Where is the free wind power we were promised? Or is that just more Green idiocy?

    90

    • #
      TdeF

      Instead of the media blaming Climate Change, what about reality? It is likely someone lit every single fire. Surely that is the problem.

      And who knows what the penalties are? And if no one knows, what is the point of them?
      There is no deterrence at all.

      I read that one firebug has 14 years jail for killing ten people in a fire he lit. Who knows that?

      70

      • #
        hatband

        And who knows what the penalties are? And if no one knows, what is the point of them?
        There is no deterrence at all.

        I read that one firebug has 14 years jail for killing ten people in a fire he lit. Who knows that?

        You’re jumping the gun here.

        Firebug is a jokey term for Pyromaniac.

        There is absolutely no evidence that these fires have been caused by Pyromaniacs.

        Criminals light fires for all sorts of reasons, from Fraud to Murder.

        So, the question here is, have these fires been caused by the Insane, or a criminal element

        paid by persons unknown, for reasons unknown, or something much darker?

        26

        • #

          and how many are just slack accidents…

          80

          • #
            hatband

            In normal times, perhaps most can be put down to slackness?

            However, no one is leaving campfires burning at the moment, or tossing lit cigarettes in the dry grass.

            35

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              Given the clear panic indicated by the ferocity of the spin being applied to the arsonists and fuel load memes now out in the wild, it’s clear that these memes are correct or the MSM wouldn’t be trying to lie it’s way out of so hysterically….

              We are winning.

              120

            • #
              Graeme#4

              Th Australian has just reported the death of Matt Kavanaugh who was going around, putting out unattended campfires. He managed to put 7 of them out before he was killed in a car accident. Like you, I find it unbelievable that some folks were still lighting camp fires in the bush.

              90

              • #
                Annie

                He was a well-respected and liked member of the local FFMV. Our daughter is very upset about his death.

                00

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              A work colleague was caught in Ulladulla last weekend.

              I know he is a levelheaded person, cool in a crisis. His recount of conversations with locals was that locals were spitting blood over lack of proper fuel reduction burning.

              Add to that that many locals had damn near lost their families, means there is a directed and controlled seething anger against those who let this happen , that even Gogh in his “maintain the rage” days would have been in awe of.

              This won’t go away……

              90

            • #
              Annie

              I wouldn’t bank on that hatband. Our daughter has been on the summer crews with FFMV and during the last season, one really worrying fire was certainly a deserted but unextinguished camp fire in the middle of a local forest. The crews also came across campers with fires on total fire ban days and had to black out those fires.
              I also read a comment somewhere (can’t remember now) of someone seeing no fewer than three different drivers flicking hot cigarette ash out of car windows.

              70

        • #
          Andrew McRae

          Two things, hatband.

          Firstly could you clarify your opinion about the fire causes.

          hatband, January 8, 2020 at 5:26 pm :

          There is absolutely no evidence that these fires have been caused by Pyromaniacs. Criminals light fires for all sorts of reasons, from F_aud to Murder.

          hatband, January 8, 2020 at 7:52 pm :

          The Issue is now Arson of the forest. The Media have admitted this, so forget about their rationalisations, and ask why they’ve been covering it up since at least as far back as November 2019.

          Your use of “admitted’ suggests you believe the new media reports about arson.
          Fires that occur out in the middle of nowhere are obviously not about claiming insurance, and there’s been way too many of these things for them all to be coverups of dumped bodies, especially when you consider that the fire draws attention to the area unnecessarily. These non-pyromania reasons are very unlikely reasons for the MegaFire(s). I take the point that the words “firebug” and “arsonist” carry different meanings of intention, but I don’t think the rest of us (nor the mainstream media) have thought it worth making a distinction between “someone who deliberately lit a fire for fun” and “a deranged person who lit a fire for fun on more than one occasion”. It seems like a distinction without a difference in the case we’re talking about.
          Can you clarify that your opinion about the perpetrators did not change between 5:26 and 7:52 because you believe “firebug” and “arsonist” have different meanings?

          Secondly, while you are speculating about “darker” motives, you may want to consider this old article from 2008 which has an expert quoted in the 2nd-last paragraph saying something very interesting. https://is.gd/5W4Fy7
          (I could not past the actual link because it contains a word that almost certainly sets off the trolling filter around here.)
          I just thought that last quote by Dr Dolnik was very interesting, even if it is very outdated and we’ve never heard any reports of that type of activity ever actually happening here in the 11 years since. It appears to be purely hypothetical… so far.

          ~

          All this discussion of possible perpetrators is ultimately a big distraction from the obvious solutions that the experts have been telling us at Royal Commissions for the last 30 years: more cattle grazing and more prescribed burns. These are solutions which pay off no matter what the source of ignition in any given case turns out to be. Performing these only in buffer zones around high value biodiversity assets while leaving large park areas untouched is a compromise which won’t inhibit MegaFires in the parks but would still be better than the current management situation.

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          • #
          • #
            hatband

            All this discussion of possible perpetrators is ultimately a big distraction from the obvious solutions that the experts have been telling us at Royal Commissions

            ”Possible perpetrators?”

            The Cops have arrested hundreds of people for lighting fires

            So we know the cause.

            We have yet to find out the reasons why they are lighting fires.

            Since no details are being released, the opinions of Criminologists and other experts

            don’t carry much weight..

            22

            • #
              Andrew McRae

              Yeah I stuffed that up, used the wrong word. I wasn’t doubting the contribution of arson to the season’s blazes as it has been too widely reported even by rags that it doesn’t suit such as the SMH. The meaning I intended at the time was “causes”, as I was highlighting how one solution works no matter what the cause is, and there can be many causes.

              20

        • #
          TdeF

          Firstly, it seems to be an exclusively male problem and mainly young men 18-25.

          It is a common enough thing for young people, even young children to be fascinated by fire and likely oblivious to the consequences. This might only be one in 10,000 young men but that leaves perhaps 1,000 young men in Victoria alone.

          Arguing medical explanations like pyromania is a bit extreme but it is a common enough fascination, especially in the young. Getting a thrill from lighting fires may encourage more. Dismissing this as medical pyromania is inappropriate. It is likely preventable behaviour, not obsession.

          My point is that driving over the limit makes a driver lethal and is common enough but likely not an alcoholic.

          For the next most common group as reported, men in their sixties, it might be an insurance job, vengeance, anger or frustration.

          In the great fire of San Francisco earthquake in 1906, most of the fires were lit by people wanting to claim on the insurance. A nearby fire could be enough excuse for an insured house or farm to burn down and an easy way out of debt. The fact that it might burn down every house in the area might be seen as unfortunate but collateral damage.

          So the questions are two. Firstly how to dissuade young men from lighting fires and quite a separate question of how to make sure any fire does minimal damage. As for older men lighting fires for insurance, they just need to know the criminal penalties, like any crime.

          51

          • #
            TdeF

            As for the idea of campfires left burning, that would be the natural excuse for anyone who has lit a fire. It is not my belief or experience that anyone leaves a campfire burning, ever.

            If this was a serious belief rather than an obvious excuse, that is a matter for education.

            51

            • #
              Annie

              Unfortunately, TdeF, we do know of such a thing and not only in our daughter’s experience while working with FFMV.
              Many years ago, 1984, we went on a trip up to Alice Springs and Ayers Rock. On the way to the rock we camped overnight by the road and made a small cooking fire for our family of six. A converted bus with two people pulled up by us, unloaded a small bike and went off into the bush, came back dragging a large branch of wood which they proceeded to light, surrounded by a lot of spinifex. The next morning it was still alight and they drove off again, leaving it as it was. We had been ready to depart ourselves, having made sure our little fire was thoroughly out. Our departure was delayed while we worked to make sure their unecessarily large and dangerous fire was properly extinguished.
              I mentioned elsewhere the camp fire left in the forest not far from here last season that was the cause of another worrying fire.

              40

              • #
                TdeF

                That’s all very odd behaviour, especially as long ago. I am suspicious that these visitors were not Australians, perhaps visiting adventurers on a budget. Perhaps these are the same people who drive on the wrong side of the road each year on the Great Ocean road with tragic consequences.

                Australians are taught to swim, drive on the left and to put out fires. I cannot imagine any country people driving away from a log left burning. In fact even the log seems an extreme way to start a camp fire.

                10

              • #
                Annie

                No, they were Australians alright. We, as not long resident Poms in Australia at that time, were utterly astonished by their appallingly ignorant and selfish behaviour. Their bus was a bright yellow converted old school bus, with a South Australian registration number.

                10

              • #
                Annie

                Well, all six of us witnessed the huge log that was gathered and lit by thst couple that we had to make safe. I think they were from Adelaide and should have known better.

                10

        • #
          glen Michel

          Tell me that some have a MOTIVE hatband. There are some nasty characters of an anarchist/left leaning who would participate in such an act. antifa? trotskyists?. possibly. Can’t be ruled out hatband.

          30

    • #
      Grant (NZ)

      I just want to make a distinction between “back burning” and “fuel reduction burning”. I hear a lot of people talking about back burning, when I think they mean fuel reduction burning.

      My understanding is that a fuel reduction burn is done during the low risk wet season. The fire is set on the upwind side of the tract of bush and it burns quickly through the understorey of the forest. Because it passes through quickly it does little damage to the larger trees but consumes the fine fuels and there is a fast regeneration and “green up” of the bush that reduces the ability of the bush to carry a fire.

      Back burning is a fire fighting technique. (You don’t want to be back burning unless you are trying to stop the spread of an existing wildfire.) A back burn is set on the downwind side of a tract of bush from a defendable firebreak and burns back towards the existing fire. (A large fire will create its own draft and will cause the deliberately lit fire to draw towards the main fire front). The back burn is a slow burn and is a hotter burn than a fire reduction burn. It is intended to scorch the earth ahead of a fire so that there is no fuel to carry the fire front. You have to have a lot of conditions in your favour for a successful back burn – a good firebreak, a light wind, good fuel, access and a good escape if things go wrong.

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        Bill In Oz

        Grant, Here is a former ( organic ) farmer’s perspective from hands on experience:
        1: A fuel reduction burn is always started at a pretty good existing break in the vegetation like a road or wide track.
        2: Preferably with the wind blowing towards the road or track so it burns slowly up wind away from the start point at the road.
        3: Often these burns are started around noon to 2.00 pm..As sunset approaches the temperature drops and the humidity increases, cooling the burn.Ideally it goes out shortly after sunset because of this process…
        4: It should always been done with notice ( and preferably the help ) of neighbours

        Of course knowing what weather is expected is crucial. If a major wind change is forecast, all bets are off and the burn should not be attempted.

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        • #
          Another Ian

          Bill

          If you can light all four sides of the burn area you can use the “chimney effect” to pull the fire inwards and get better control.

          40

      • #
        PeterS

        Land management is a better term and includes burning but also includes non-burning methods, such as bulldozing, poisoning and other clearing techniques.

        30

  • #

    UPDATE: The Daily Mail says arrests in other states are large too :

    Color me skeptical, because their headline looks a bit sloppy. I would like links to police news releases or more reliable numbers.

    In Queensland, police have arrested 101 people accused of starting bushfires, 69 juveniles and 32 adults.

    Five people were arrested for allegedly setting bushland alight in Tasmania – and a further 10 in South Australia.

    Meanwhile in Victoria, where locals have experienced some of the most catastrophic conditions the nation has ever seen, 43 people were charged with firebug offences.

    Does anyone feel like checking the original sources so we can compile a full number of actual arrests as well as “warnings” or legal action of lesser sort.?

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  • #
    George4

    In my area people regularly demolish their old house (costing tens of thousands) then build a new house (costing several hundreds of thousands).
    I can’t help wondering whether there are some who are secretly happy to see there old crappy house burnt down in a bushfire enabling them to build the house of their dreams and save a fortune.
    Sometimes when people are interviewed on the site of burnt house, they say how terrible it is, but I imagine the look in their eyes is almost cheery.
    People will hate me for even suggesting this, and I know the majority are really devastated and many fight bravely to save their house, but still I do wonder.

    75

  • #
    pat

    Jane Marwick, 2GB, is covering the battle of political & bureaucratic wills that is raging over hazard reduction.

    she has just interviewed Don Graham, who has lost his house, and written this letter to The Australian (behind paywall), which references a landscape painting that was on the wall of his house, and which he has saved, I think he said:

    Memories of a valley vista lost to a conflagration – The Australian – Letters
    2 days ago
    Donald and Bron Graham, Buchan, Vic:
    That painting (dated 1867) unambiguously described a landscape of open woodland that was still under the control of our First Peoples. Since that time it had turned into a powder keg of dense scrub-filled forest, with an accumulated fuel load of at least 70 years…

    Nick Cater is on with Jane now and Vic Jurskis, author “Firestick Ecology”, will be on later.

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    • #
      hatband

      Pat, hazard reduction burning is old news.

      The fires were caused by Arson, that fact isn’t being either hidden or denied any longer.

      13

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Arson is a distraction, ironically ……..

        ********the lack of hazard reduction burning is the issue******

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        • #
          hatband

          No, Arson is the issue.

          Lightning strikes are a force of nature, maybe one or two small fires that burned out without

          anyone knowing were caused by lightning.

          Arson isn’t a force of nature.

          It’s deliberate, and it’s an attack on Australia.

          So yeah, Arson is the issue.

          27

          • #
            Annie

            They are both the issue; maybe arson starting the fires, but lack of adequate hazard-reduction work the reason for the fires becoming far worse than they need have been.

            110

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Nonsense….what damage can arson do if there is little to burn?

            The issue is lack of hazard reduction burning.

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          • #
            beowulf

            No, hazard reduction is the MAIN issue. Without fuel arson is a minor problem. Bare dirt doesn’t burn no matter how hard you try to light it.

            Hazard reduction MUST be kept in front of the people and the pollies until they act to do something about it once and for all.

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            • #
              hatband

              Erm,.. the cause of the fires was people intentionally lighting the fires.

              Nothing else.

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              • #
                AndyG55

                The cause of the intensity of the fires was dryness of neglected overgrown forests after 3 years of well below average rainfall. I’ve also seen some data on very high UV levels, which also has a drying effect on plant material.

                Fanned by natural windy an hot weather events, once the fire was in those forests there was no way human resources could have done anything to stop it or control it.

                None of this has anything to do with the baseless anti-science conjecture that human released CO2 causes global warming.

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              • #
                AndyG55

                ps.

                Not going too much into the actual starting cause of these fires, but in the current weather conditions, I would consider a cigarette but of any open fire lit for cooking etc as tantamount to arson.

                Nobody accidentally throws a cigarette butt or lights a camping fire.

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              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Erm, I think it’s too tight; loosen it a bit.

                40

              • #
                AndyG55

                chuckle… well said KK.

                40

            • #
              PeterS

              Reduction burning is only possible in small localised areas to protect property and lives. The big bush fires will still occur when the conditions are suitable as they have been lately. So our focus is to protect some properties and all lives and let the rest of the bush land burn, which in itself is a natural way of fuel reduction across largely remote areas covering in total many millions of hectares.

              24

            • #

              I’m with Beowulf and OriginalSteve.

              The main issue is Hazard reduction. Leaving all the fuel lying around is like leaving the front door unlocked and saying thieves are the main issue.

              We all wish there were no burglars/arsonists but they will always be there, and a lot of what is being called arson is just accidents. Like the fire south of Perth yesterday. It was started by a boat trailer that lost a wheel which triggered sparks.

              20

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          And that lack of hazard reduction is completely down to Climate change denying governments cutting funding to National Parks, State Forests and the RFS etc. It is denial that is the root cause of the fuel build up. For example, in NSW – NPWS, State Forests, and the RFS have rebutted this claim – but again denial is your stock in trade, so you have not read/listened/watched any of that now have you?

          04

          • #
            AndyG55

            What a load of anti-science garbage your feeble mind comes up with. !

            No evidence of anything.

            Glad that you have FINALLY ADMITTED that the intensity of these fire is purely down to lack of control burning.

            Even looking at the fires burning, it is blatantly obvious that fuel load is the problem

            You have either woken up.

            … or are missing more toes.

            NO EVIDENCE of any CO2 effect though, is there.

            Next day, 20C..

            All that CO2 released,

            All that heat released by the fires,

            All gone.

            But none of that heat got “trapped” by all that extra CO2, did it..

            20

          • #
            el gordo

            In NSW Premier Gladys sacked or downgraded a lot of the NPWS staff, those that remain are stretched and only have time for hazard reduction work.

            https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-deputy-premier-john-barilaros-hazard-reduction-swipe-worse-than-an-insult/news-story/546160173b4418e19b5caaf44ef73ac1

            00

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘Scientists warn a timber industry proposal to allow some logging in national parks and on other public land to reduce bushfire risk is an “incredibly misleading” idea that could actually make forests more flammable.’

            Mike Foley/ SMH

            Mr Fitz is this true?

            20

          • #
            beowulf

            That lack of hazard reduction should be laid squarely at the feet of the Greens who infest governments and strategic government departments that have the say in what gets burnt, when it gets burnt and under what pre-conditions. Miles of Green tape clog up the process so that very little gets done.

            There is no lack of public service staff to carry out hazard reductions if they had the will. Re-deploy, re-allocate positions from pointless paper-shuffling to field positions. For a start the RFS has 830 full time staff. Send some of them out in the off-season.

            Cut the Green tape and watch things happen. Get the hell out of the way of the local brigades and let them work autonomously like they used to when we did have a lot more hazard reduction burns and a distinct scarcity of mega-blazes. Governments should support the local brigades during hazard reduction operations, indemnifying them if a rare burn goes wrong. Compensate the owners affected. It is a small price to pay to protect an entire community from being wiped out.

            Like I said the other day Fitzy — move over, your lot have had their turn and what an outstanding job they’ve done!!!! How many towns wiped out? Time to let the grownups take over land management again.

            20

          • #

            PF. That makes no sense at all. Not even wrong…

            10

  • #
    pat

    won’t be able to post the Don Graham interview until Marwick’s program ends later tonight. however, Graham wrote the letter to The Australian, partly because he was furious Scott Morrison was copping so much criticism, which he considered was grossly unfair.

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  • #
    Chris

    Fires being lit deliberately have been a problem for many years, but that is not really the current issue. The real issue is that once a fire starts, by whatever means, that fire rapidly becomes uncontrollable and grows considerably and cannot easily be stopped.

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    • #
    • #
      PeterS

      Really large bush fires are impossible to stop. As I keep saying our focus is to protect some properties and all lives and let the rest of the bush land burn, which in itself is a natural way of fuel reduction across largely remote areas covering in total many millions of hectares.

      20

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Chris,
      I sort of agree with you, but note that the chart Jo posted shows 37% of fires are considered to be “suspicious”. Add to that that a lot started rather close to the same time and I too become suspicious, and consider that the concentration in comments earlier on “pyromaniacs” is misplaced.
      Cheers
      Dave B

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  • #
    pat

    so much mis-information from the MSM at Carbon Brief, it’s best to post their entire Daily Briefing page, so u can see it all today. note the following sections:

    8 Jan: Carbon Brief: Daily Briefing
    Australia’s bushfires to cost billions as climate risks rise

    Nearly 900 pensioners died in British heatwaves last year as experts warn houses are too hot

    Pension funds urge Barclays to stop lending to fossil fuel firms

    Bushfires show the good and the not-so-good in modern Australia

    note individual articles at bottom, including:
    One year to save the planet etc… – The Guardian
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/australias-bushfires-to-cost-billions-as-climate-risks-rise

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  • #
    pat

    7 Jan: ABC: Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an ‘emotional load of rubbish’
    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has moved to shut down calls for a massive increase in fuel reduction burns, as the state’s fire chief says the debate has involved “hysteria” and an “emotional load of rubbish”…

    Some residents emerging from the East Gippsland township of Cann River, which was cut off by bushfires which have devastated the region, told the ABC on Tuesday they believe more planned burning should have been done.
    Cann River farmer Graeme Connley said residents had been given “no say” in planned burning in their area.
    “We’ve been trying since 1983 to get fuel reduction burning done because we had the big fire then,” he said.
    “Today, we are being treated like puppets in the bush, we have no say in what is happening [with planned burning].”
    Mr Connley said Cann River had lost all of its flora and fauna in the recent disaster…

    Asked about the issue on Tuesday afternoon, (Vic Premier Daniel) Andrews said prescribed burns were part of an integrated strategy focused on protecting life but there were fewer days each year when they could be safely lit.
    “Surely no-one is advocating that we put fire into the landscape in an unsafe way. That just wouldn’t be sensible, that would be dangerous,” he said.
    He said controlled burns were “not a silver bullet”.
    “I think there’s some good examples of where land that had been backburned quite hard — quite heavy fuel reduction burning only three or four years ago — burnt pretty hot last weekend.”…

    The Country Fire Authority’s chief officer Steve Warrington said there was a “fair amount of emotion” around the issue.
    “We’ve had fire down the landscape here that has had burns go right through it [during colder months] and it hasn’t slowed it at all,” he said.
    “The emotive argument is not supported that fuel reduction burning will fix all our problems.
    “Some of the hysteria that this will be the solution to all our problems is really just quite an emotional load of rubbish, to be honest.”

    Mr Andrews highlighted the bungled 2015 planned burn near Lancefield in central Victoria — which destroyed four homes and burnt through more than 3,000 hectares of land — as a reason to exercise caution around burns.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/fuel-reduction-burn-debate-rubbish-says-vic-fire-chief/11849522

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    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an ‘emotional load of rubbish’

      Volunteer Firefighters Association (NSW)

      Don’t blame fire crews or climate, it’s FUEL

      The recent fires in Victoria were driven by big fuel loads, not by the weather.

      The fire danger index was a surprising low 16-20, but the high fuel loads resulted in predicted rates of spread of 0.5 kph and flame heights up to 10m.

      In comparison, the fire danger index on Black Saturday 2009 reached around 130 -180. The FFDI is a measure of the speed, flame height and spotting distance.

      There is a disturbing trend to:

      Leave fuel loads unmanaged,
      Blame fire crews for not doing enough, when they struggle to deal with fires driven by large fuel loads and unfavourable conditions,
      Wait for the fire to come to us (it builds momentum as we wait), and
      Blame climate change for these large and destructive fires.

      We should be:

      Managing fuel loads using cool / Indigenous burning techniques that were also once used by early settlers, farmers and graziers,
      Restore the engagement of farmers and other land owners in early suppression options like tanker trailers and slip-on firefighting units,
      Invest in early fire detection technologies like fire towers and scanning equipment (smoke, heat and other fire detection systems have reduced the frequency and severity of structural / building fires)
      Once fuel loads are better managed, we can get back to basic firefighting techniques to help reduce the size of these fires.

      It is the fuel loads that create the biggest problem.

      https://volunteerfirefighters.org.au/dont-blame-fire-crews-or-climate-its-fuel

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      • #
        George4

        When the forest is extremely dry, fires will skip straight through controlled burn areas.
        Most controlled burn areas will not see a bush fire in their effective lifetime.
        Controlled burns are an effective tool around housing but are not a panacea for bushfire.
        I really doubt whether their increased widespread use is cost effective in our litigious society.

        28

        • #
          Rick

          I doubt if there would be much attention paid to bush fires if they did not threaten people and housing. In North America, naturally occurring fires are often just left to burn if they do not threaten property or valuable timber.

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Rick that is what the dopey idiots have done here in Oz
            And then the fires build with the weather
            And burn homes farms people
            Just like in Paradise California in November 2017 ehh ?

            30

        • #
          AndyG55

          Even attempting back-burning in the sort of condition we have had is almost certain to lead to other problems.

          There must be much wider fire-breaks around all human habitation, and along all public roads.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Well, here’s the Spring 2019 FDDI map issued by BOM on 16/12/2019

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/ffdi-spring-map/11810502

        Also this:

        “Special Climate Statement 72—dangerous bushfire weather in spring 2019″

        http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs72.pdf

        10

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Most curious Steve
          Summer begins on December 1st
          But these documents, dated the 19/12/2019
          Are warning about the fire danger risk in SPRING 2019 !
          The horse has well & truly bolted by then
          As we know to our cost here in the Adelaide Hills

          30

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            I blame their super computer…..once the BOM hooked up the free-to-air tv box to it, its been on the blink ever since…..

            10

          • #
            Deplorable Lord Kek

            Summer begins on December 1st
            But these documents, dated the 19/12/2019
            Are warning about the fire danger risk in SPRING 2019 !

            b…but they p…predicted it, right?

            00

            • #
              hatband

              Forget the BOM, Kek.

              It’s been a laughingstock since Methuselah was a pup, and some things never change.

              The big story now is that The Megaphone is admitting that the fires were caused by

              Arsonists, but the Arsonists were probably young and naive, or maybe it was a

              Lifestyle Choice, anyway disadvantaged useless males aged 18-25.

              20

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Great way to ruin the ecology

        06

        • #
          Annie

          Don’t be so ridiculous PF.

          10

        • #
          Annie

          It seems my comment to you on don’t be so r1dicul0us is in moderation!

          10

        • #
          AndyG55

          “Great way to ruin the ecology”

          What, letting the fuel load build up to dangerously high levels ?

          That is what has caused the inferno type intensity of these fires.

          That is what has made them so impossible to access and control.

          And we all know what agenda caused that, don’t we. ;-)

          30

      • #
        Annie

        Premier Dan A and the Vic fire chief will soon get a very emotional response from me and mine if we are burnt again as I hold them responsible for the truly reprehensible lack of fuel reduction in our area and elsewhere in Victoria. They are a disgrace, trying to push away their guilt in this situation.
        This could have been done and maintained, especially along the roadsides. Do they really want us all to go through all that again? Our very overgrown, disgraceful roadsides are heavily used by residents and very many tourists to Lake Eildon and beyond.
        Words fail me; I am angry beyond words; polite-ish ones anyway.

        40

    • #
      WXcycles

      Victorian fire chief says calls for more fuel reduction burns are an ‘emotional load of rubbish’

      Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has moved to shut down calls for a massive increase in fuel reduction burns, as the state’s fire chief says the debate has involved “hysteria” and an “emotional load of rubbish”…

      There’s a good reason to have a Royal Commission, right there, just to disabuse future debate of the nonsense Daniel Andrews is now injecting, in order to avoid responsibility for literally disastrous policies.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        And they know they will get belted ( metaphorically ) for this so they try to shut it down…..

        Too late, Comrade Andrews…..

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        • #
          hatband

          Premier Dan doesn’t mind talking about Fuel Reduction Burns til the cows come home.

          As long as he doesn’t have to talk about Arsonists in State Forests and National Parks , he’d

          be happy reciting the Melbourne White Pages from A-Z.

          00

  • #
    pat

    8 Jan: Daily Mail: ‘Arson is not caused by climate change’: Row breaks out over real cause of Australia’s bushfires after it emerges more than 180 people have been arrested for starting them
    •Liberal MP has claimed arson to blame for bushfires, rather than climate change
    •Craig Kelly, a climate change skepticism, appeared on Good Morning Britain
    •24 people have been charged with bushfire-related offences this fire season
    •A further 53 people arrested for failing to comply with state-imposed fire bans
    •At least 25 people have died, and 1,500 homes have been destroyed so far
    •Some have seized on arrests to say that impact of climate change is overstated
    By Sophie Tanno and Brittany Chain
    MAP: This map shows the statistics across each state of Australia where people have been charged for lighting fires

    There have been ***183 people arrested or charged with lighting bushfires ***nationally – and police fear that figure will climb…

    Mitch Parish, a former arson squad detective, said the international frenzy surrounding the bushfire crisis would only increase a ‘vanity arsonists’ desire to light an inferno.
    ‘It’s got to the stage where they’re seeing all the publicity on the fires … and they get bit of a buzz because of all the attention,’ Mr Parish said.
    ‘People get very emotional and passionate (about fires) and feel a lot of power because it’s a very ­destructive force.’…
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7860635/Australian-bushfire-crisis-183-people-arrested-24-charged-starting-fires.html

    why has DM written that ***183 was a National figure? as Jo posted and SMH reported:

    6 Jan 2020. ***NSW Police: Since Friday 8 November 2019, legal action – which ranges from cautions through to criminal charges – has been taken against 183 people – including 40 juveniles – for 205 bushfire-related offences.

    5 Jan: SMH: ***NSW Police have taken legal action against 183 people so far this bushfire season, including charging 24 people with deliberately lighting bushfires.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-fires-legal-action-taken-against-183-people-this-bushfire-season-20200106-p53p97.html

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    pat

    Jane Marwick, 2GB, invited Janet Stanley, Associate Professor at Melbourne University’s Sustainable Society Institute, on to her show tonight. didn’t hear all of it, but it seems Stanley doesn’t believe in punishing arsonists because they are very unhappy people. Marwick is NOT impressed. neither are her listeners.

    pity Marwick is only standing in for John Stanley. she should be doing the program permanently.

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  • #
    Zigmaster

    I feel this attempt by the ABC and others to play down the arson epidemic that has emerged in relation to these fires highlights the role of arsonists as mass murderers which is clearly what they are. If an arsonist by definition has intentionally lit a fire then his crime is no less heinous and arguably more heinous than the most notorious mass murderers . Yet I challenge anyone to name one convicted arsonist whose actions resulted in multiple deaths. Everyone remembers Julian Knight, Martin Bryant, Harold Shipman, son of Sam, Gargasoulas but arsonists for some reason have this element of anonymity which serves no purpose other than to delude the community that they don’t exist. Rather than less publicity they should get more and face the scrutiny of community at large. Brenton Tarrant ( NZ mosque attack) had his manifesto publicised which gave some insight into his actions . Back stories are valuable public information to explain behaviours that are extreme. It would be illuminating to see what drives each one of these arsonists . Until we know eco terrorism is merely speculation but the number of arsonists involved in these fires appears to inordinately high and to play down these numbers would be irresponsible behaviour by any media networks that do so.

    50

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Waco….?

      But the issue is lack of hazard reduction burning.

      30

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Hazard reduction yes but you pointed out the twisted mindset of hard leftists which I agree with totally.

        30

    • #
      hatband

      Yet I challenge anyone to name one convicted arsonist whose actions resulted in multiple deaths.

      Not sure of your point, but the Kings Cross Pyromaniac who killed 15 in 1975 was convicted and sentenced to Life.

      Ditto the Childers Backpacker Pyromaniac.

      Nero was History’s most infamous Pyromaniac, he ”fiddled while Rome burned”.

      Closer to the present, Wizard Chef Escoffier was a noted Pyromaniac, he burned down several of

      Cesar Ritz’s Paris hotels before being Committed.

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  • #

    Looter activists frightened dumb Americans from continuing to build reactors–thereby having energy AND reducing harm by the safety differential. Now like 1940s Nationalsocialists Yanks meddle in Ottoman territory and are surprised when fanatics hijack planes into buildings and fires fuel econazi agendas to ban electrical generation entirely. Surprise is one of the leading tells for bovine stupidity. A sharp rise in the death rate is another.

    14

  • #
    Chrism

    1. AGW crowd predicts doom unless we pay sacrifice to Climatus (God of carbon dioxide)
    2. Something bad happens (anything, too much, too little, an average amount(value adjusted))
    3. “See we told you”
    4. Someone points out that actually (e.g. an extinction rebellion supporter) was lighting fires
    5. Climatus acolytes heap contumely upon that person
    6. Social media war ensues blurring the clear principle violation demonstrated (#4)
    7. Labor/Green leader eg Premier Dan announces that in fact the police have made no arson chatges in Victoria
    8. Repeat

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  • #
    DryLiberal

    “A search on “The Guardian arson” and “abc.net.au arson”, or “theguardian.com arson arrests” turns up almost no other headlines about the large number of Australian arsonists?”. That’s because (as I noted above) a significant number of the people you refer to in the blog post did not commit arson (as you’ve noted) and won’t be charged with this offence. Commercial media won’t use the term arson unless it’s the charge or the finding due to the legal ramifications of the term being used incorrectly.

    30

  • #
    cedarhill

    The Left:

    1. Lies told often enough . . .

    2. Lies circle the globe . . .

    3. Mass Media Hypes the Lies and reports the truth on page 98,412 or higher

    And why any one with a brain believes Modern Era reporting is one of the Mysteries of the Ages.

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  • #
    Deano

    Interesting that when a building burns down one night, no one presumes it to be all down to global warming and that arson must be out of the question. The standard news report usually states “police have not ruled out arson yet”.

    Here in WA (and I’m sure in most of OZ too) we’re used to the phenomenon of ‘pole top fires’ caused when built-up dust on wooden power pole insulators becomes sufficiently damp with rain or humidity to allow current flow which can result in enough heat to set fire to wooden poles. Poorly maintained power poles can also be a cause. A serious fire in 2014 in the Perth hills was due to a white ant ridden pole falling and starting a fire. Pole maintenance costs money and, like that fire escape we’ve all seen used for temporary storage, it can just “be sorted out later when we have time/money”.

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    The news about arson arrests just hit here too. This whole post brings out just one thing, how much government and journalistic lying there is, both here and in Australia. If such lying was a crime I can only imagine how many around the world could end up swinging from a tree at the end of a rope, not that I’m advocating something that drastic but it sure would provide a good incentive for the rest to behave themselves.

    Temptation, get thee behind me.

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    hatband

    Up until yesterday, the Media were reporting that all the Experts were unanimous:

    ”It’s Climate Change.”

    Today, they’re saying ”Yes, it’s Arson, but they’re teenage kids from disadvantaged

    backgrounds just having a bit of a lark. We didn’t report it because the cops say it will

    encourage copycat attacks.”

    Is that the truth, or is it Limited Hangout, because the Narrative has completely

    changed over a few days?

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Its a clever and deliberate ploy by overwhelming the media with the arson meme.

      Ive noticed very few comments about hazard reduction burning ( this I am sure is by design ) , and we need to make sure the real issue, which is lack of hazard reduction burning , doesnt go down the memory hole.

      The people on the south coast were incandescent with anger about lack of hazard reduction burning….I have rellies who are deeply embedded in at least one south coast city who know a lot of people and are very clear its lack of hazard reduction burning. They also realize climate change is complete unscientific nonsense.

      The lack of hazard reduction apparent root cause of these fires will not die……

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      • #
        hatband

        You haven’t quite managed to overwhelm this thread

        with your multiple postings on Hazard Reduction, but

        The day is still young.

        13

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Not really….

          Posts by Hatband = 37 ( as at 14:34 9/1/2020 )

          Posts by Self = 30 ( including this one, as at 14:34 9/1/2020 )

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          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Steve, I stopped bothering to spend time
            On Hatband’s comments 3-4 days ago.
            Long winded and obfuscating most of them.

            41

      • #
        hatband

        The Forests that are already burnt won’t need Hazard Reduction Burning for years, if ever.

        It’s too late to start Hazard Reduction Burning on the unburnt Forests, that’s an issue for

        another day, though it looks like Dan Andrews and yourself would like

        to talk about it til Kingdom Come.

        01

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      It’s still climate change. You should not mix ignition source and the resulting fire. Nor should you concentrate on only one factor – soil moisture, weather etc all play a part, and that is where climate change makes everything worse.

      117

      • #
        Crakar24

        If everything plays a part including arson how big a part expressed as a percentage has AGW played in the fires this summer. If you dont know just say “i dont know” dont bother to respond with the standard cult diatribe

        71

        • #
          hatband

          In respect of the Bushfires destroying Victoria and New South Wales:
          1. Climate Change is irrelevant to the issue

          2. The amount of fuel is irrelevant to the issue.

          The fires have been deliberately lit, no one knows by who, or their motivations.

          Claims that the culprits are disadvantaged youth can only be considered

          if their is some evidence for that being offered.

          So far there’s been only Third Party expert opinion.

          But no supporting evidence.

          05

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            You seem to be ignoring all the evidence.

            70

          • #
            beowulf

            The amount of fuel is irrelevant to the issue. ????????? WHAT?

            Irrelevant to what issue? We know a great many have been started by people.
            The severity of these fires is not controlled by the ignition source.

            FUEL + oxygen + heat / ignition source = fire

            MEGA FUEL + O2 + heat source = MEGA fire

            60

            • #
              hatband

              Irrelevant to what issue?

              The Arson Issue, remember?

              It’s the title of the thread.

              If the fires are caused by a changing Climate then, yes, Fuel Loads are the Issue.

              But, if the fires are caused by Arsonists, then Arsonists are the Issue.

              So, which box do you want to pick,

              Climate Change or Arsonists?

              00

      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        prove it.

        oh, that’s right, climate change is an unfalsifiable paradigm, so you can’t.

        60

        • #
          John Hutton

          Prove to you that making something hotter and drier is going to make it more likely to burn?

          You’re beyond reasoning with.

          [Be careful to stay away from personal attacks. Attack the position or opinion all you want to but keep it civil.] AZ

          18

          • #
            Crakar24

            John, reading between the moderation is this the only read first summer where it has been hot enough and dry enough for things to burn?

            Trying to understand you comment, jt does nit make much sense

            80

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            You’ve been looking at faked data and listening to media headlines. Get some real data and that argument dries up.

            50

          • #
            Deplorable Lord Kek

            Prove to you that making something hotter and drier is going to make it more likely to burn?

            No, just prove that anthropocentric co2 emissions are THE substantial causative factor of ‘climate change’ (ie the temperature control knob for the planet).

            40

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            [Be careful to stay away from personal attacks. Attack the position or opinion all you want to but keep it civil.] AZ
            Excellent advice!

            00

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘It’s still climate change.’

        Climate is 30 years and over that time we have noted some amazing oscillatory ‘shifts’, but this bushfire season is not exceptional and droughty weather is the culprit. Political naivety is responsible for the build up of fuel loads and taking a leaf out of the Beijing song book, prevention is preferable to a cure.

        At the beginning of every fire season all young men in rural and regional areas need to be rounded up and anyone who looks a bit dodgy should be placed under house arrest for the summer. Or they could be sent to Bali.

        30

      • #
        Crakar24

        Its been 2 hours got that % figure yet

        40

      • #
        AndyG55

        “It’s still climate change.”

        LOL …and yet another scientifically unsubstantiated garbage statement.

        When are you going to produce some actual evidence .

        Its actually “CLIMATE NORMAL” for Australia to have periodic drought conditions.

        70

      • #
        AndyG55

        “climate change makes everything worse”

        A garbage anti-science statement yet again, with absolutely ZERO evidence.

        NSW shows a gradually INCREASING rainfall until the NATURAL drought of the last 3 years

        Please explain how human released CO2 causes increased rainfall, then drought.

        This is “CLIMATE NORMAL”

        You have NOTHING to offer except mantra cult belief.

        60

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Peter,

        You keep trying to sound so expert and authoritative yet you shoot down your own argument by sticking in the one thing that you can support by any kind of evidence at all.

        weather etc all play a part…

        The rest is just an argument with another comment. The weather is all you have that you can support because anyone can see that the weather was hot, the wind blew, conditions were dry, etc. You have systematically failed to show evidence that climate is changing and not just weather doing what it always does, change from year to year, day to day and so-on. Needless to say, you have not shown that CO2 is even capable of what you claim it can do.

        When is too much enough?

        20

  • #

    [...] STOP PRESS. Jo Nova on the spin that the warming worriers are putting on the arson statistics. [...]

    00

  • #
    R.B.

    Even the “Murdoch press” are playing along with this. I posted this on the AB blog and it was rejected.

    A News article Firefighter slams ‘outright lies’ about bushfires, as experts expose bots and bizarre conspiracies

    And a picture of what looks like a body builder/model rather than a CFS volunteer in front of an American fire truck

    30

  • #
    Maptram

    I recall an arsonist that went to jail. In Canberra in the early hours of new years day 2002, a young man was walking home past a pine forest at Scrivener Dam. He was cold so he lit a fire. The fire destroyed the pine forest. In January 2003, bushfires that started in NSW, got into the ACT and destroyed much of the southern suburbs. The fires didn’t get into the northern suburbs because the pine forest that separated north and south, in other words fuel, had been burnt the year before.

    50

  • #
    Zigmaster

    The fact that so many arsonists are teenagers is probably nothing new but teenagers also comprise those most radicalised by the global warming indoctrination. Whilst these teenagers may have no conscious propensity to light fires the constant badgering associate with the global warming proopaganda must have a subliminal influence on their brains.
    There is no doubt that whilst no human being would want to see the wanton damage and deaths associated with bushfires warmists welcome the wake up message that they believe these fires send. The desire to provide convincing proofs( where none are apparent) means that extremists within the AGW movement are barracking for the fires ( although not the consequences of it ). I can understand this is how they feel because as a committed sceptic I have the exact opposite emotion with every news item of bushfires causing within me serious anxieties not just because of the lives lost and properties destroyed but because of the concern that the political response may be to drive our leaders into going further down this socialist anti capitalist, economically destructive road that if implemented would turn Australia into an economic basket case.

    51

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    The propaganda of global warming attribution is a very new field of ‘science’.
    They can’t afford to have undermined. Not now …

    CSIRO, Nov 2019:
    “The old phrase “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” suggests that from a climate change global warming point of view we can talk about the changes to the climate statistics, but that commenting on an individual event is not possible.

    In practice this was the case for a long time, but the field of event attribution emerged in the early 2000s aiming to do just this.”

    https://ecos.csiro.au/climate-change-and-extreme-events-quantifying-the-changing-odds/

    >> I like how when the fires rage, it’s global warming, but, when relieving cool front comes through, it’s weather …

    Sydney news: Bushfires ease with rain and cooler temperatures, fireworks found at Sydney grassfire

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/sydney-news-monday-morning-briefing/11843022

    40

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      December 2019 commenced with Australia’s coldest summer temperature on record, along with 3 days of snowfall on the tops.

      Ever since, a non-stop series of large, low pressure systems (snow storms / blizzards, if you will) have rolled eastwards, south of the continent, and on towards us. One storm even began life as a tropical cyclone off Madagascar, drifting south-eastwards across the breadth of the Indian Ocean before joining the Roaring Forties, clipping Tasmania before dropping snow on our Southern Alps on Christmas Day. Hey Mann, at least MY predictions come true. :-)

      1. These large, summer (snow) storms have been preceded by warm fronts, pushing warm desert air ahead of them towards the east coast, ie. QLD, NSW, VIC.

      2. As they pass, a cool change ensues, soon to be followed by the next approaching warm nor’west front, pushing warm/hot air ahead of it.

      3. Could it be – these endless COLD storms are accentuating the heat?

      30

  • #
    Simon

    All this talk of arson is just misdirection.
    The primary cause is the climate: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/
    Victoria has a sophisticated prescribed burning regime, but that has been hindered because it has been too hot and dry.

    517

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      Exactly right Simon.

      217

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      even if we were to accept BOM’s notoriously homogenized figures, that link proves nothing about the causes of ‘climate change’, which is a natural event occurring since the year dot.

      90

    • #
      Crakar24

      On the contrary, the only natural form of fire ignition is lightning strike and therefore uncontrollable, if this were the only fires this summer both of you would be relegated back to trying to explain how putting co2 between the sun and a thermometer makes the temp rise (unsuccessfully i might add).

      But no here you both are gloating over the death and destruction imposed on others claiming your God caused it all

      90

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      “Victoria has a sophisticated prescribed burning regime”.

      So sophisticated that you can’t even smell the smoke.

      140

      • #
        Crakar24

        They have a VESDA system which detects AGW smoke

        60

      • #
        Graeme#4

        They might have a regime in place, but they failed to implement it last year.

        00

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Also DWELP now refuse to provide access to their data on their burning regime, information that was publicly available previously. One organisation had to pay $1294 to obtain the information using FOA.

        10

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        I am replying because you might Kalmly look at it.

        Ok….i live in the Latrobe Valley Victoria and the smoke is so thick during winter early spring that i frequently check whats burning on http://emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/#

        My research is that 9.5 out of ten, all that smoke is generated mostly by fire caused by controlled burns that only use one person to attend the controlled burn.

        In this case, the controlled burns is the what is left after logging in Plantation Forests. The plantation forest industry make huge bonfires that are made of dead wood buldozed into large piles. These need very little action and monitoring is performed by one person. Usually. These burns are very different to the controlled burns in a living forest of excess fuel.

        Any experts that know more about this me please elucidate. In my case, i purchased two electrostatic air cleaners made by a company called Friedrich C-90B Electrostatic Air Purifier to make the smoke tolerable. The coal fired power station is nearby and the smell of coal is very rare.

        00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Maybe………..these controlled burns by the plantation industry are funded with a few cans of beer. Guessing and not fact checking here.. Not saying skill is not involved in these cases. Funding the controlled burns of wood and detritus piled/bulldozed into a mound seems to be low intensity.

          01

    • #
      glen Michel

      Facile. Once again it seems the so-called “experts” find out the reality long after rational people have determinations. Best not to listen to experts who totally lack common-sense and wisdom.

      70

    • #
      el gordo

      Simon the talk about arson is not misdirection, but putting that aside, a positive IOD and neutral ENSO are weather related.

      Open your mind to natural climate change and the first thing you’ll notice is that its a cyclic phenomenon.

      https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018_01_09_08_21_27-down.png

      60

    • #
      Annie

      There were planned prescribed burns in this area, not cancelled because it was ‘too hot and dry’, but because the best time was when all the little diddums tourists from Melbourne were coming up here and might have to put up with a bit of smoke.
      Now see the smoke from big fires where the fuel reduction burns weren’t done.

      80

    • #

      The problem is that you have spent no time or curiosity on what “global warming” might entail. Pity. It’s a fascinating area of knowledge/speculation.
      https://www.raisinguppharaoh.com/2018/08/11/190-sahara-pump-neolithic-pluvial-out-of-africa/

      The good thing is that all the talk of “global warming” has set people like me wondering and inquiring, at least a little.

      The downer is that those doing the talking are completely without curiosity, as if any exposure to the actual subject might corrupt pure conviction.

      Do you even think of all that cold water which has been associated with the present drought? Really, you are like JWs on the doorstep with copies of the Watchtower to give out before they get going to the next house. You have to stay on message at all cost.

      And no thinking!

      50

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        mosomoso:

        An interesting site which I must explore more. Thanks for finding it.
        And don’t worry about Peter Fitzroy etc. they are incapable of examining facts.

        10

    • #
      AndyG55

      “because it has been too hot and dry”

      And before that, summers were hot and wet.

      Didn’t you know that its CLIMATE NORMAL for the Australian climate to fluctuate between drought and rain?

      Simple simon. !!

      60

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Simon, you have neglected to include the fact that Victoria only implemented half its planned burns this year, only one third of that recommended by the Black Friday royal commission.

      30

  • #
    Crakar24

    Another fire 5 ks south of my place, grass fire on side of road, the grass just suddenly burst into flames i guess. 20 years in prison is a light sentence for them.

    80

    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      2 north of my place, from the peat fires which have been burning since October.

      110

      • #
        Crakar24

        Did they simultaneously combust due to AGW or did someone set it alight?

        90

      • #
        Crakar24

        We made the CFS page fire experts are on the scene trying to express as a percentage the role AGW played, tbe fact that grass does not spontaneously combust suggests AGW played no role at all, blasphemy yes i know but i am an atheist.

        You can now begin gloating about the omni potent force of your trace gas God and how it has effe tinv the lives of few thousand more people

        80

      • #
        RicDre

        PF: “2 north of my place, from the peat fires which have been burning since October.”

        Are the peat fires burning with open flames or just hot and smoldering? How big are 2 fires North of your place?

        20

      • #
        AndyG55

        peat fire burn even in the Arctic

        So your statement is, yet again, totally meaningless and irrelevant.

        60

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Peter, you have mentioned your favourite peat fires recently and folks have commented on them. What is the relevance of your peat fires to the topics being discussed here?

        40

  • #
    Joe Born

    I already suggested this to Roy Spencer, but perhaps you could write a Quillette piece in response to the piece at https://quillette.com/2020/01/08/lessons-from-australias-bushfires-we-need-more-science-less-rhetoric/. (Send it to [email protected].)

    20

    • #
      glen Michel

      I found a lot to disagree with there.Tendentious and inner urban.

      40

    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      Interesting discussion at that link (as I am not a member of that forum, I will just post my observation here).

      “pseudobabble”: The thing that I never see mentioned in these discussions is that, regardless of how good our climate models are, they cannot prove anything.

      response from “RayAndrew”: “Did you work for the tobacco lobby back in the day? This is exactly their argument. Joe is dying of lung cancer and he smoked two packs a day all his life, but we can’t prove that the cigs caused this because we have no exact duplicate of Joe who’s life was identical in every detail except for Joe #2 not smoking. And even if we did have an identical Joe, that wouldn’t be enough either, since we’d have to run the experiment a thousand times to be sure and even then we’d only have correlation which of course does not prove causation. Nope, there’s nothing carcinogenic about cigarettes.

      In the same way, no climate model has ever been perfect and even if they were we’d only have prediction, not causation. Nope, the sea level isn’t rising even if it seems to be. Can’t be, because the climate models don’t prove anything, yes?”

      No.

      In what way is multiple incidents of lung cancer in multiple different persons over a human life span comparable to a natural event that has been occurring to ONE planet every instant since the world began (the world, as Heraclitus said, is in constant flux).

      We cannot observe multiple different planet earths over the entirety of their existence (indeed, the planet has no twins, which is a reasonable but limited control for studying the effects of genetics and environment).

      So whilst cigarettes as a causative factor is not provable we can more readily make reasonable inferences to justify the conjecture.

      A (very) quick look at the studies on smoking shows that the balance of effect between genetics and environment is not settled.

      But the science of climate change is settled beyond dispute and no one is allowed to say otherwise!

      30

  • #
    MudCrab

    Lot of Flak today.

    Must be over the target.

    120

  • #
    PeterS

    I am surprised as to the high proportion of deliberately lit fires. After doing some research looking at local and overseas studies it appears roughly 2/3 of bush fires are deliberately lit, with the rest either accidentally lit or natural. So those claiming that most of the fires are caused by lightning are either telling lies or are totally ignorant of the facts.

    The way I see it though is we always had people deliberately lighting fires in the bush. In the past when the conditions were not so bad I bet most of them failed to spread. Over the past decade or so we have had good rains promoting lots of growth. More recently we had drier conditions leading to more dead fuel on the ground. Add summer heat conditions and we have a perfect storm for the arsonists. Of course this doesn’t let them off. They deserve the full force of the law to be applied (and more IMHO).

    31

    • #
      hatband

      No one isprepared to consider the possibility that the Bushfires are

      the result of coordinated Arson.

      Statistics may well confirm that fires are lit by disadvantages youth,

      but, so what?

      Q: How can a disadvantaged Youth access remote Bush, then light a fire,

      with any hope of getting out alive?

      A: He can’t, unless he has good Bushfire knowledge from being a volunteer, which is unlikely.

      23

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        ….Which basically kills your idea of co-ordinated arson.

        The premise is that for such people it would literally be a suicide run.

        Unless we see bodies turn up, your theory may have to be discarded…

        11

        • #
          hatband

          How so?

          If it’s coordinated Arson, then it’s being done by Professionals who know what they are doing.

          00

  • #
    Ross

    200 cases of arson comes down to 26. No reported cases of arson in Victoria. Simple facts, Jo.

    Hey and what about the realisation that conservatives in Great Britain agree with and accept the science of climate change? It was a hell of a shock for poor Craig Kelly. I imagine it must be a shock for deniers who only ever communicate in ‘blogs’. Time wounds all heels.

    310

    • #
      Crakar24

      Ross,

      Every fire caused by arson is a fire that need not have happened and therefore homes and lives lost that need not of happened.

      WRT kelly i dont think any australin denier cares about what the UK think the reason why……and this is important Ross so pay attention. A denier arrives at their place of denial based on their own thoughts on tbe subject as opposed to a member of a cult who has arrived at their place of belief because they have followed tbe herd.

      Personally i dont care what you or anybody else thinks i make up my own mind.

      For example: the NH is smashing cold and snow records this we are told is caused by AGW, tbe heat and bush fires here are caused by AGW.

      You and your fellow cult members accept this on face value, i ask the very legitimate question whether AGW will cause global cooling or global warming for asking this queztion you will label me a denier

      100

  • #
    Maptram

    “The Queensland University of Technology senior lecturer on social network analysis Dr Timothy Graham examined content published on the #arsonemergency hashtag on Twitter, assessing 1,340 tweets, 1,203 of which were unique, published by 315 accounts.

    His preliminary analysis found there is likely a “current disinformation campaign” on Twitter’s #arsonemergency hashtag due to the “suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts”.

    He similarly found a large number of suspicious accounts posting on the #australiafire and #bushfireaustralia hashtags.”

    Has Doctor Graham done similar searches on #climate change hastags to determine whether there have been likely disinformation campaigns.

    70

    • #
      Travis T. Jones

      Twitter bots and trolls promote conspiracy theories about Australian bushfires
      Research from QUT shows that ‘some kind of a disinformation campaign’ is pushing the Twitter hashtag #ArsonEmergency. There is no arson emergency.

      “They were really focused in particular on climate denial, and The Greens being responsible for the bushfires, and arson attacks being responsible for the bushfires as well,” he told ZDNet on Tuesday.

      https://www.zdnet.com/article/twitter-bots-and-trolls-promote-conspiracy-theories-about-australian-bushfires/

      >> No one denies the last ice age.
      There is no such thing as ‘climate denial’.
      What a crock.

      60

  • #
    PeterW

    As one of those who gets asked “What caused that fire” and whose answer/guess goes on the official record……

    “Suspicious” is the tag we give when there is no other obvious cause.

    But let’s argue that all suspicious fire were arson….. and let’s imagine that we could come up with a strategy for cutting arson rates in half . That would be a hell of a big drop in any category of crime, but it would still leave us with 75% of our current fires. The two big fires in the Southern NSW – Dunn’s Road and Green Valley, were started by lightning.

    Discussions about arson are necessary, but they are in no way an excuse for ignoring our need to manage fuel, access and other aspects of preparedness for fire.

    82

    • #
      hatband

      We’ve got no idea who the Arsonists are, or their motivations.

      The Authorities are sitting tight on this information,

      while the Fuel Reductionists are bleating

      ”Reduce Fuel Loads”

      The usual suspects splutter ”Climate Change”

      and Government flunkies keep distributing the Red Herrings.

      05

      • #
        Travis T. Jones

        ” … and Government flunkies keep distributing the Red Herrings.”

        Government flunky meets red herring …

        2009: Australia bushfires: Arsonists guilty of ‘mass murder’ says PM

        Australia bushfires death toll may reach 200

        The prime minister, Kevin Rudd, Speaking about the fears that arson could have played a part, he said: “What do you say about anyone like that [an arsonist]?
        There’s no words to describe it, other than it’s mass murder.”

        https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/feb/09/australia-bushfires

        61

    • #
      George4

      “other aspects of preparedness for fire”

      Build non flammable houses in bushfire zones and clear around infrastructure.
      Problem solved, no more lives or homes lost.
      Cheaper insurance premiums for everyone.
      There is so much money washing around this issue now I wonder whether some people will be financially better off if destructive bushfires continue and they will never push for an effective cure.

      02

      • #
        Bob-l

        On the whole yes, fire protection plus a reasonable fire break means the fire may get to the structure but it will be pretty cold by then. A firebreak of 1 km of cleared land around townships ( lots of under 1/2 AC) might help as will allowing selective logging.

        10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        What is a non flammable house? Underground or at least surrounded by earth berms? Not at all what the people who want to dwell in the forest want. And the cost?

        20

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    In any information war, when there is Green-Marxist agenda, facts and reason have little value.

    60

  • #
    James

    “Online posts exaggerating the role of arson are being used to undermine the link between bushfires and climate change”

    More accurately…. “Online posts exaggerating the role of climate change are being used to undermine the link between bushfires and arson”

    140

    • #
      AndyG55

      They are doing everything they can to undermine the link between the intensity of he fires and the dry fuel load build up.

      They have to, because they KNOW their their environmental agenda of lock-up and neglect is one of the main reasons FOR that fire intensity.

      101

      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        Carbon sinks, prevention of land clearing are obvious sources of fuel for a fire.

        But we are told to believe it’s the invisible gas in the sky rather than the dead trees, overgrown weeds and plants etc. that increase fire intensity.

        80

  • #
    Destroyer D69

    Irrespective of the cause of the fires, the severity,rapid advance and destructive nature of the fires can absolutely and positively be attributed to the greens and the global warming loopsters whose policies, and the spineless administrations who did not excercise any degree of due diligence in the implementation of these policies set the country up for this disaster, in the clear knowledge of warnings from those who had previously demonstrated an effective regime to manage the risks of these wildfires occurring.

    122

    • #
      Dennis

      UN Agenda 30 – Sustainability

      Protecting forests for wildlife and future generations, so green fools decide lock them up and leave them to nature.

      Ignoramus.

      20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Here is an interesting one via Dr Roy Spencer …

    BUSHFIRES – AN INTEGRAL PART OF AUSTRALIA’S ENVIRONMENT
    01/01/1995   

    This article has been contributed by Mr N. P. Cheney, CSIRO Division of Forestry.

    https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/[email protected]/0/6C98BB75496A5AD1CA2569DE00267E48

    via: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/01/are-australia-bushfires-worsening-from-human-caused-climate-change/

    - Curiously, though, according to Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data, the 1974-75 bushfires occurred during a year with above-average precipitation & below-average temp…opposite to the narrative that major bushfires are a feature of just excessively hot and dry years.

    70

    • #
      PeterS

      To the CAGW alarmists it matters not what the conditions are; hot, cold, dry, wet, etc., bush fires are now always due to man-made climate change according to the leftards. Hollywood actors have stated the bush fires are due to climate change so it must be true, right? NO! They tell lies. After all that’s what acting is all about.

      60

  • #
  • #
    pat

    another great choice (sarc) for a repeat during theirABC’ summer holidays:

    AUDIO: 54m6s: 8 Jan: ABC Big Ideas: What price nature?
    Can we better conserve our ecosystems and biodiversity by placing an economic value on them? Some scientists, environmentalists and economists believe we need to view the natural environment as ‘natural capital’. Paul Barclay speaks to a panel of experts.
    Presented by the Griffith Review. Recorded on March 21, 2019.
    Original broadcast date: April 4, 2019
    Speakers
    Charles Massy – farmer and author (practices regenerative agriculture, which is both economically viable, and ecologically sustainable)
    Jane Gleeson White – author (Six Capitals, Or Can Accountants Save The Planet)
    Hugh Possingham – Chief Scientist, The Nature Conservancy; Professor, University of Queensland.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/what-price-nature/11729562

    begins with Jane Gleeson White, who brings up an interesting character I’d never heard of – Carl Obst – she says he happens to be an Australian. he had been head of Australian Bureau of Statistics; head of National Accounting. also author of the new UN guideline called “The system of environmental and economic accounting”. listen for what Australia has signed up to do.

    ABC’s Barclay: for example, we know what a tree is worth if you cut it down, what this is attempting to do is put a value on this tree if we don’t cut it down.

    LinkedIn: Carl Obst, Director at Institute for the Development of Environmental-Economic Accounting (IDEEA), Melbourne
    Experience includes:
    Director, Institute for the Development of Environmental-Economic Accounting (IDEEA)
    Sep 2015 – Present
    Consultant Editor, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting
    United Nations Statistics Division
    May 2010 – Jun 2013
    Head, National Accounts Branch
    Australian Bureau of Statistics
    Jun 2003 – Jan 2008
    https://au.linkedin.com/in/carl-obst-4321a85

    The Conversation: Carl Obst articles
    https://theconversation.com/profiles/carl-obst-101166/articles

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    robert rosicka

    I’d like to know more about the green tape involved in fuel reduction burns and how much it impacts on each years targets .
    I do know some take up to seven years from step one to the eventual burn .

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      PeterS

      Fuel reduction is not all about burning. It also includes clearing using various other means. They are all necessary for proper fire risk management. If a Royal Commission is instigated that must be the main focus of attention to expose the c0rrupt practices and subsequently the relevant people brought to account.

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    Geoff Sherrington

    In year 1900, the estimated population of Aboriginal people in Australia was 117,000
    The area of Australia’s land is some 7.7 million square kilometres. Dividing one by another, we have 66 sq km per person. If we assume 4 people per family, this gives about 250 sq km per family. However, not all of Australia was populated by and gave living to, these families. Let us assume that one tenth of the land was occupied. Each family then has 5 x 5 km or 6,200 acres.
    It is being said that aboriginal people practised controlled “mosaic” burning that eventually dictated the natural plant composition and appearance of the countryside. This is plausible if we accept that all of the inhabitants at the time did what the academics think they did. It seems not so hard for a family to light small fires regularly on their 5 x 5 km. If each fire was controlled to say 1 x 1 km and its effects lasted for 5 years before the next burn, then there would be a need for 5 family fires a year.
    While these simple numbers compute, they do no more than show what is remotely plausible and then invite criticism for the assumptions.
    The bigger question relates to year 2020. Controlled burns to reduce the risk of large, hot, destructive fires are getting much discussion. Drawing from the example above, what is the barrier to today’s rural landowners burning their own 5 cold, small fires each year? One can even imagine that the need for such fires would lessen over the decades as the countryside altered in response.
    Geoff S

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    ulptorsca

    is there any information linking the proximity of ignition sites to public roads or access ways …?

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    Crakar24

    Its official ergo announced on their ABC arson is to blame. there were 3 fires close to each other on the Williamstown to kersbrook road luckily the cfs got to it in time.

    It is possible the God of co2 possessed a cult member and lit the fires therefore we can say its caused by AGW but as i said earlier i am an atheist

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      PeterS

      Not sure how one’s religious views has anything to do with the lighting of fires and their stance on AGW. It’s a fact that AGW alarmists are made up of all types, including atheists.

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        Crakar24

        AGW acceptance requires belief the same as religion ergo AGW is a religion

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          PeterS

          Saying anything that people believe in is a religion is too broad a definition. People believe there is life on other worlds but that doesn’t make it a religion even if it’s wrong.

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          robert rosicka

          Crakar I think faith is the word your looking for , belief comes later .

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    PeterS

    I’ve been hearing lots of support coming from overseas, such as from NZ, US and Canada. Any from China? We have helped a number of Asian countries in times of need, such as tsunamis and earthquakes.

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    A Crooks

    Its been said above – but Im saying here – It seems a no brainer that the media and the fire bureaucracies and their hyperventilating coverage is likely to be the very cause of many fires. Its like they want to encourage arsonists. With suicide cases and terrorism the bureaucracies and the media are very coy because they recognise a link between over enthusiastic reporting and copycats. Here all caution thrown to the wind “Listen up everyone! Tomorrow is going to be a CATASTROPHIC fire danger day. We are going to be so stretched we wont be able to cope!”

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    Another Ian

    “The Truth About the Australian Bushfires.”

    Link at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/01/09/january-9-2020-reader-tips/

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    Zane

    Just an example of constant green propaganda, driving through Geelong today on the main highway over the Barwon bridge was a sign ” THINK CLIMATE. There is no Planet B. Geelong Sustainability. ” Whoever they are. But signs in public libraries here are rabbiting about moving towards the ” Zero Waste Household. ” It’s relentless. So many groups are being funded to promulgate the loony green agenda. Talk now of getting rid of weekly council rubbish collection… fortnightly or less to come. This is the green leftist future that awaits.

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    John F. Hultquist

    The ABC has a story about maps with fire symbols etc. etc.

    They have given the wrong impression. Who knew?

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    Yonniestone

    Avi Yemini exposing the Greens agenda and lies about the bush fires, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KLb2GKhpNk

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    Don’t forget two other main causes:

    1 Eucalyptus spreads its seeds by means of fire, a burning eucalyptus tree literaly explodes to blast the seeds around, and with it the fire as well.
    2 at least 5% preventive clearance is needed, whereas only 2% is realised, so there is a pileup of litter.

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      robert rosicka

      Some seeds need both smoke and fire to germinate but Fitz is the expert I’m amazed he hasn’t mentioned it .

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      beowulf

      Not quite Hans. Someone has been telling you fibs. If a fire is hot enough to make a tree explode I can assure you its seed would be destroyed by the heat too. Many hundreds of degrees — enough to easily melt aluminium. Eucalypt seed is tiny, like coarse pepper, and the trees definitely do not blast seed all around. Eucalypts drop their seed like most trees and even a warm wind is enough to initiate seed-fall.

      Their seedlings do survive better in a bed of ash though because it has had all the competing plants and soil pathogens destroyed by the heat. Eucalypt seedlings are very susceptible to fungal infection. The same protective effect can be achieved by grading away the top 5 or 10cm of topsoil.

      Most Eucalypts will survive fire when other trees around them don’t, giving them the advantage. They are not like Banksias that actually require fire to open their hard seed capsules or acacias that require heat/abrasion to break their hard seed coat to allow germination to commence.

      “Smoke-Water” has been available commercially for over 20 years now in Australia to aid in the germination of a lot of native plants in nurseries. Many plants have chemical inhibitors built into their seed-coats which must be broken down by the chemicals in smoke before those seeds will germinate.

      Very many Australian rainforest trees use similar chemical inhibitors, but theirs are more complex. You have to mimic the effect of digestion by a bird to kick start the growth cycle.

      You are totally correct about the accumulation of litter on the forest floor. It is an outrage that it has been allowed to happen.

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        Thanks for the correction on eucalyptus seeds, however, exploding eucalyptus trees that worsen forest fires was a big issue in Portugal where the fast growing trees were planted in reforestation programmes.

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          AndyG55

          Not really the trees that “explode”, its the eucalyptus oil released when the trees get over heated.

          You can drive through any forest region in summer, and the smell of eucalyptus oil can be extremely strong.

          And if you get a big fire, it become very flammable.

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      hatband

      2 at least 5% preventive clearance is needed, whereas only 2% is realised, so there is a pileup of litter.

      The litter is gone for another 10 years, more if the trees are gone too.

      In other, possibly important news, the

      Fires were the result of Arson.

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    pat

    follow-up to comments #19 and #25:

    3m18s to 16m40s: interview with Donald Graham, followed by comment from Nick Cater/Menzies Research Institute/journalist to 19m58s.

    43m50s to 56m08s: interview with Vic Jurskis/Firestick Ecology.

    1h05m26s to 1h13m50s: interview with Prof Janet Stanley on arson.

    AUDIO: 2h49m29s: 2GB: Nights with Jane Marwick
    https://www.2gb.com/podcast/nights-with-jane-marwick-wednesday-8th-january/

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    pat

    coming to Australian farmland soon!

    7 Jan: UK Telegraph: EU farming subsidies to be replaced by fund linked to efforts to combat climate change, Theresa Villiers to announce
    By Helena Horton
    Speaking at the Oxford Farming Conference, Theresa Villiers will confirm that the Government’s landmark Agriculture Bill will be introduced this month to Parliament, which will replace the Common Agricultural Policy.
    She is expected to say the new scheme “will be one of the most important environmental reforms for 40 years” and set the standard for climate change action across the world.

    The bill will put forward a new approach where farmers and land managers are rewarded with public money for ‘public goods’ – such as enhancing biodiversity, tackling climate change and raising standards of animal welfare.

    However, the president of the National Farmers’ Union has argued that the government has not gone far enough to help farmers protect the environment so far and pointed out that little has been done to mitigate flooding, which has significantly reduced crop yields.
    The new funding will come after a seven-year transition period for farmers, who will see Direct Payments gradually phased out…
    Ms Villiers will say: …“We have the potential to create a virtuous circle between agriculture, tackling climate change, protecting biodiversity, and securing investment in our rural economy.”…

    To provide support to farmers in the lead up to, and during, this transformation, the Environment Secretary will confirm the Government will guarantee the current annual budget for farmers in every year of the Parliament…READ ON
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/07/eu-farming-subsidies-replaced-fund-linked-efforts-combat-climate/amp/

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      pat

      what a future. farmers farming wind; farmfree food:

      8 Jan: BBC: Food ‘made from air’ could compete with soya
      By Roger Harrabin
      Finnish scientists producing a protein “from thin air” say it will compete with soya on price within the decade.
      The protein is produced from soil bacteria fed on hydrogen split from water by electricity.
      The researchers say if the electricity comes from solar and wind power, the food can be grown with near-zero greenhouse gas emissions…

      When I visited Solar Foods’ pilot plant on the outskirts of Helsinki last year the researchers were raising funds for expansion…
      I ate a few grains of the precious protein flour – called Solein – and tasted nothing, which is what the scientists have planned…

      The progress of this extraordinary technology has been hailed by the environmental campaigner George Monbiot, who has made a TV documentary, Apocalypse Cow, broadcast on Channel 4 in the UK at 22:00 GMT on Wednesday.
      Monbiot is generally pessimistic about the future of the planet, but says Solar Foods has given him hope…
      Monbiot: “But farmfree food offers hope where hope was missing. We will soon be able to feed the world without devouring it.”…READ ON
      https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51019798

      and coal miners learning to code:

      5 Jan: WUWT: Joe Biden’s Climate Advice to Coal Miners: “learn to code”
      by Eric Worrall
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/05/joe-bidens-climate-advice-to-coal-miners-learn-to-code/

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    pat

    ok boomers. you have the FINANCIAL POWER:

    8 Jan: Vox: Boomers: You can still be heroes in the story of climate change
    You have the political power to solve the climate crisis. Use it.
    By Laura McGann (ex-Politico)
    You might not like to hear it, as many of you have long told pollsters you consider yourselves environmentalists, but collectively you have exacerbated the climate crisis more than any other generation.
    Fossil fuels were cheap as you came of age and you burned too much of them…

    So instead of investing in cleaner energy sources or preparing for a less-stable environmental future during good economic times, you passed on problems…
    As Australia burns and the Trump administration stymies international collaboration and bails out the coal industry, you have a chance to redefine your generation and save the day. You’ve already proven you are a generation that can evolve. You changed your views on social values and are far more similar to millennials than your parents. It’s not too late to do the same on climate…READ ON
    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/8/21055097/baby-boomers-climate-change-australia

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    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Royal Commission Report into Ash Wednesday: (published 2010)

    Land and Fuel Management

    Prescribed burning is one of the main tools for fire management on public land. it cannot prevent bushfire, but it decreases fuel loads and so reduces the spread and intensity of bushfires. By reducing the spread and intensity of bushfires, it also helps protect flora and fauna. ironically, maintaining pristine forests untouched by fuel reduction can predispose those forests to greater destruction in the event of a bushfire. About 7.7 million hectares of public land in Victoria is managed by DSE. This area includes national parks, state forests and reserves, of which a large portion is forested and prone to bushfire. DSE burns only 1.7 per cent
    (or 130,000 hectares) of this public land each year. This is well below the amount experts and previous inquiries have suggested is needed to reduce bushfire and environmental risks in the long term.

    The Commission recognises that prescribed burning is risky, resource intensive, available only in limited time frames, and can temporarily have adverse effects on local communities (for example, reduced air quality). Nonetheless, it considers that the amount of prescribed burning occurring in Victoria is inadequate. it is concerned that the State has maintained a minimalist approach to prescribed burning despite recent official or independent reports and inquiries, all of which have recommended increasing the prescribed-burning program. The State has allowed the forests to continue accumulating excessive fuel loads, adding to the likelihood of more intense bushfires and thereby placing firefighters and communities at greater risk.

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    pat

    7 Jan: The Atlantic: How Long Will Australia Be Livable?
    Facing a future of fire, drought, and rising oceans, Australians will have to weigh the choice between getting out early or staying to fight.
    Bianca Nogrady
    My hometown of Blackheath, perched at the top of the Blue Mountains, surrounded by stunning but drought-parched Australian wilderness, was in the center of this flaming pincer…

    “This is our Gallipoli; this is our bushfire Gallipoli,” says David Bowman, a professor of environmental change biology at the University of Tasmania. He’s talking about the bushfires that began in the spring of September 2019, that have burned in every state and territory, that have claimed at least 24 lives, that have destroyed nearly 1,800 homes, and that have turned more than 8.4 million hectares of land into lifeless charcoal…

    As the country suffers through one of its worst droughts on record, and heat waves shatter temperature records not once but twice within the same summer week, some are asking whether Australians can afford to keep returning to the same parched, scorched landscapes that they have occupied not just since the European invasion two and a half centuries ago, but for tens of thousands of years before that. Even before climate change, survival — particularly of agriculture — in some parts of Australia was precarious. Farmers were so often rescued from the very edge of disaster by long-overdue rains that arrived just in time. Now the effects of climate change are making that scenario even less likely, and this bushfire season and drought are but a herald of things to come…
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/only-way-confront-australias-wildfires/604546/

    the writer, who lives in the Blue Mountains:

    Bianca Nogrady: In more than a decade of freelance reporting, my work has appeared in outlets including Nature, The Atlantic, The Guardian, Undark, MIT Technology Review, the BMJ, Australian Geographic, Scientific American, the ABC, and BBC.
    I am author of The End: The Human Experience Of Death, editor of the 2019 and 2015 Best Australian Science Writing anthologies, and co-author of The Sixth Wave: How To Succeed In A Resource-Limited World.

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    pat

    8 Jan: AmericanThinker: Another Expensive Solar Scheme Bites the Dust
    by Norman Rogers
    (Norman Rogers is the author of the book Dumb Energy: A Critique of Wind and Solar Energy. He runs the website NevadaSolarScam.com)
    The purveyors of solar energy are working overtime to spin the now official failure of the Crescent Dunes thermal solar plant in central Nevada. The contracts to purchase the electricity from the constantly broken plant will be voided. Bloomberg Businessweek claims that Crescent Dunes was obsoleted by technological advances in the form of photovoltaic based solar plants. That is nonsense and misses the whole point of the Crescent Dunes project. It also misses the reality that all utility-scale solar is a failure — not marginal, not growing into being practical, but a total and complete failure…READ ON
    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/another_expensive_solar_scheme_bites_the_dust.html

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    pat

    8 Jan: ClimateNewsNetwork: Germany’s green energy quest stalls
    by Kieran Cooke
    Despite its ambitious goals and promising start, Germany’s green energy quest is faltering, and it has missed a key target…
    Under its Energiewende or energy transition policy unveiled 20 years ago, Germany has made substantial progress in transforming its energy sector, reducing the use of climate-changing fossil fuels and boosting energy from renewable sources…

    But, though the Energiewende policy was initially successful, making further progress on replacing fossil fuels with renewables and cutting back on GHG emissions is now proving ever more difficult.
    The initial aim was to achieve an overall 40% drop in GHG emissions by the end of 2019 as compared to 1990 levels: clearly that target has not been met.
    Several factors are in play: despite early progress on cutting back on coal use, Germany – which has Europe’s largest economy – has so far failed to wean itself off its dependence on what is the dirtiest of fossil fuels.
    More than 25% of Germany’s total energy production comes from coal – one of the highest rates among European countries. Most of the coal burned is lignite, the most polluting form of the fossil fuel…
    The German government says it will shut its more than 100 coal-fired power stations by 2038. Some say this is far too late…

    Out of sight
    In recent years there’s been growing concern about the proliferation of land-based wind turbines: more restrictions have been brought in on their construction, resulting in a drastic cut-back in wind project start-ups…
    The state has brought in some of the country’s most stringent restrictions on wind power projects: to meet its ambitious decarbonisation targets and, at the same time, ensure its energy supply, Munich is now having to invest in wind power installations abroad, some as distant as Norway.

    But such enterprises carry their own set of problems. Environmental groups in Norway have raised objections to wind power turbine installations which they say threaten the beauty of the landscape. In particular they criticise the construction of such projects solely for the export of energy.
    https://climatenewsnetwork.net/germanys-green-energy-quest-stalls/

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    Crakar24

    two days in a phucing row i am woken by the sounds of a cfs siren, this time a grass fire 400 meters from my place, its cool overcast and no wind and yet a fire starts peter phucinv phitzroy will still blame AGW

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Crakar:

      We know that paper burns at 233℃ and dry grass must be close to that, so all Peter F has to do is maintain that Global Warming has reached that temperature, at least locally.

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      How did that fire progress with cool windless conditions?

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        hatband

        Arson.

        There’s no other explanation.

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          you can’t use arson in the middle of winter or during a downpour. Arson can start a million fires but arson doesn’t make them progress to an out of control infernos

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            AndyG55

            “doesn’t make them progress to an out of control infernos”

            nope, lots of neglected dry fuel load after a 3 year deficit of rainfall after a generally increase in rainfall is needed to do that

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            hatband

            Correctimundo.

            Let’s take a gander at the Bombing of Dresden.

            TheU.S. military had built model German towns to firebomb..

            The purpose was to discover the most efficient placement of incendiaries to create an

            inferno.It worked.

            The USAF woulda looked purty stupid if they’d dropped all them bombs

            but the fires went out.

            So,it’s not dumb luck.

            As the Royal Commissioner states in the next thread:

            ”The cause of the fires was human hand.

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    Roger Knights

    “Instead it turned out to be caused by two teenagers with cigarette butts.”

    No problem, if they’d been vaping.

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    John

    ABC has “crunched the numbers…and can reveal that..only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022

    And you know it’s true, because the ABC isn’t biased. It only reports FACT

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