JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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The warming trend in Australia since the end of 2012 is nothing.

Across the continent downunder, “the new pause” in temperatures is now 9.6 years long as measured by the most reliable system there is — UAH satellites.

If and when we hit the Ten Year Pause, the National Climate Alarm Centres will all issue press releases, just like the other headline events, right?  Just like the “Worst bleaching since last year”, “Hottest day since records began” in 1993. Six hot days in a row in one city of Australia.

Which model predicted that temperatures in Australia would do “net nothing” for a decade?

Thanks to Charles for the graph! (His explanation of calculating the “zero slope” is at #14.2.1)

Australia, UAH Graph. The Pause

The length of the zero slope pause line is now 9.6 years.

Technically, temperatures have been falling according to the UAH Satellites since May 2016.

Satellites are obviously better for global and continental temperature trends

Assuming we care about trends that is, and not just one-second records. The UAH satellites circle continuously, and cover the entire continent. They don’t just measure 100 small  points with thermometers, next to airports and incinerators, but 7 million square kilometers of area.

Some smarty pants will say UAH is bad, because it doesn’t match the land thermometers like RSS does. But that IS the point, RSS was  adjusted to match the hyper-adjusted junk on land, and now they’re all terrible.

I explained before why UAH really is so much better:

Five reasons UAH is different (better) to the RSS global temperature estimates

      1. UAH agrees with millions of calibrated weather balloons released around the world. RSS now agrees more with surface data from equipment placed near airports, concrete, air-conditioners and which is itself wildly adjusted.
      2. In the latest adjustments UAH uses empirical comparisons from satellites that aren’t affected by diurnal drift to estimate the errors of those that are. RSS starts with model estimates instead.
      3. Two particular satellites disagree with each other (NOAA-14 and 15). The UAH team remove the one they think is incorrect. RSS keeps both inconsistent measurements.
      4. Diurnal drift probably created artificial warming in the RSS set prior to 2002, but created artificial cooling after that. The new version of RSS keeps the warming error before 2002, but fixes the error after then. The upshot is a warmer overall trend.
      5. UAH uses a more advanced method with three channels. RSS is still using the original method Roy Spencer and John Christy developed with only one channel (which is viewed from three angles).

10 out of 10 based on 58 ratings

72 comments to The warming trend in Australia since the end of 2012 is nothing.

  • #
    Honk R Smith

    Dual realities.
    We see no reason to diminish Western society.
    They could claim this as evidence the plan is working.
    Of course, they didn’t acknowledge the old one, why would they acknowledge the new one.
    Oh wait, it is not about climate, it’s about Western society being the target of the plan.

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    • #
      Don B

      Speaking of something being part of the plan – here is more evidence that the World Economic Forum is evil.

      “WEF Speaker Yuval Noah Harari: “Covid is critical, because this is what convinces people to accept, to legitimize total biometric surveillance…. The next phase is the surveillance going under our skin…. We are really acquiring divine powers””

      https://twitter.com/FMnews_/status/1515446659294982144

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  • #

    The Inconvenient Truth is that there has always been Climate Change BUT there is no Global Warming to get alarmed about. In fact, the World is more likely to experience some Global Cooling in the very near future. And, that the Satellite temperature measurements are more reliable than land based temperature measurements. Just ask NASA.

    161

    • #
      el+gordo

      ‘ … the World is more likely to experience some Global Cooling in the very near future.’

      Why is global cooling more likely in the near future?

      112

      • #
        sophocles

        Because the planet entered a GSM in 2020 and is now cooling.

        It will disimprove each year.

        This year is wetter and windier than it was last year … and it’s middle April …

        90

        • #
          el+gordo

          Hard to prove, we would need to show the mechanisms between a quiet sun and earthly climate. The Maunder Minimum may hold the answer, perhaps a GSM impacts the polarity of the oceanic oscillations.

          00

      • #

        Question: Why is global cooling more likely in the near future?

        Answer: Because it has been established by astronomers that climate change is caused by the speed of the centre of the Sun relative to the centre of mass or barycentre of the Solar System, which determines the length of the Solar Cycle. This in turn is caused by the orbits and masses of the Planets.

        Evidence: https://www.institut-halbach.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Abdussamatov_The_New_Little_Ice_Age_Has_Started.pdf

        Orbital resonance calculations: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/orbital-resonance-and-the-celestial-origins-of-earths-climatic-changes-why-phi/

        Forecast: This is a 100 year forecast of sunspot cycles, checked by a backward hindcast computer run, which predicts a cooling up to 2050: https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/myownPapers-d/VelascoHerreraSoonLegates21-April17-AdvSpaceRes-preprintOnline.pdf

        Question: How does the backward hindcast computer run prove that the “Man-made Global Warming Hoax” was caused by this?

        Answer: Between 1913 and 1996, only one of eight Solar Cycles was longer than the mean Solar Cycle length of 11.04 years, the last of these was the shortest Solar Cycle for more than 200 years.

        70

        • #
          el+gordo

          ‘Thus, the problem of sunspot cycle predictions should be considered as a question of probability. This is why the solution to solar cycle forecasting consists in calculating the prediction probabilities of future solar cycles.’

          Perhaps they need to create smarter models with predictive capabilities.

          00

          • #

            These computer models are the most reliable computer models in existence, because they are based on Kepler’s laws of planetary motion. The machine learning backward hindcast computer runs are based on the probability that the assumptions for the predictions are correct. If the machine learning backward hindcast computer run does not fit the facts for the past, then the prediction is not correct, until the machine learning backward hindcast computer run fits the facts for the past. Only then was the prediction as reliable as Kepler’s laws of planetary motion.

            The length of the solar cycle is more important than the number of sunspots in determining climate change, because the shorter the length of the solar cycle, then the higher average speed of plasma in the Sun, which determines how active the Sun is over a given period. So then it is predicted that the Sun will be less active due to the slower speed of plasma in the Sun over the next 30 years.

            The prediction is as reliable as Kepler’s laws of planetary motion.

            10

            • #
              el+gordo

              I like the hypothesis, the cosmological mechanism fits perfectly, but what we need is a five year weather forecast on earth.

              Can the theory explain ENSO behaviour?

              00

        • #
          el+gordo

          Solar cycle 24 was the shortest cycle in 100 years, are we in a Gleissberg?

          00

    • #
      el+gordo

      A negative PDO should see a continuation of the pause.

      https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

      00

  • #
    David Maddison

    Also, don’t forget that Australia’s Bureau of Misinformation, errr, I mean Meteorology, deleted from the official ACORN record all of Australia’s extensive weather records from before 1910.

    And of course, there is extensive alteration of the remaining data post-1910 by the mysterious process known as “homogenisation” that no one outside of BoM can reproduce and BoM refuses to disclose its methodology for doing so. If the data “analysis” can’t be reproduced then it is not science, by definition.

    I wonder how long before BoM alters, deletes or “justifies” not using this satellite data?

    BoM is not a scientific org admiration anymore, it is a political organisation pushing a narrative.

    An interesting acronym the BoM chose there, ACORN. The non-native species, squirrels bury acorns in the ground and furthermore fail to recover 74% of them.

    Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.
    George Orwell, 1984

    270

    • #
      David Maddison

      CORRECTION: Spell checker made an unauthorised change: “org admiration” should be “organisation”.

      50

    • #

      BOM now stands for “Bunch of Muppets”………………..

      110

      • #
        Forrest Gardener

        My mind goes back to my teaching days when a new subject was created for a couple of spare periods on the timetable at the school I worked at. My favoured acronym was POLY because it was just a filler.

        And how about the problem caused for the Swan Hill Technical College when all of the technical colleges became Institutes of Technology. And did Curtin University really have a period when it was known as the Curtin University of New Technology.

        Ah acronyms. TANSTAAFL.

        10

        • #

          University of Canberra almost amalgamated with Canberra institute of technology to form a polytechnic or, as was preferred a University of New Technology in Canberra.

          10

  • #

    David Maddison asks the interesting question, above, about why the Oz BoM should continue using ground based (..and biased) temp data rather than the UAH satellite data. It’s worth thinking about.
    The question arises in my mind as to wether it is possible for the UAH data to be ‘compartmentalised’ to show just the data for the Oz continent. If that can be done then it would be interesting to see the Apples-with-Apples between the two.
    Any ideas? Anyone for a research grant to do this? Maybe BoM could do it? Independently audited of course.

    111

    • #
      David Maddison

      Independently audited of course.

      It won’t happen. The last time this was attempted was by then PM Tony Abbott.

      The then “Environment” Minister, now “Health” Minister, Greg Hunt killed off the idea.

      BoM is, after all, a political agency with an agenda to promote the anthropogenic global warming fraud, not an impartial scientific agency.

      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/24/abbott-considered-investigation-into-exaggerated-bom-temperature-data

      190

      • #
        David Maddison

        Greg Hunt is clearly a person terrified of the truth as shown by his dismal performance in both the environment and health portfolios.

        If the BoM wasn’t altering data, why would he be afraid of an independent audit?

        If HCQ, IVM etc. didn’t work, why wouldn’t he allow them to be at least tried among willing patients and doctors? The worst that would happen is that they would be shown not to work as is the official doctrine.

        200

    • #
      b.nice

      ” it is possible for the UAH data to be ‘compartmentalised’ to show just the data for the Oz continent”

      Already happens. We have our own column at https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

      That is what the graph in the article is

      130

    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      UAH has regional figures for GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST

      10

    • #

      It’s worth thinking about.

      Because it is the only data that is relevant to almost all life?

      01

      • #
        b.nice

        Its a well know fact that nearly half the surface stations are unfit for purpose, even by BoM never-applied standards.

        That means BoM “data”, especially after the black box of warming-creating homogenisation, is absolutely pointless and irrelevant to reality.

        The data that is most relevant to all life on Earth, is the continued rise in atmospheric CO2. 🙂

        That increase is making the world a better, more plant-friendly place….. so, naturally, the greenies want it stopped.

        20

  • #
    b.nice

    Notice also the long cooling period from 2002 til 2012.5, then a step, then 2 years cooling, then a step then cooling to now.

    This is the very opposite of what mythical CO2 warming would do.

    110

    • #
      el+gordo

      The PDO was negative from 2002 to 2013, then went back into its positive phase for a decade. Oceanic oscillations determine weather and temperature.

      43

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    I predict that neither major party will mention this during the race to the Election.

    120

  • #
    OldOzzie

    LET’S DO IT FOR CIVILIANS, TOO: Pentagon to build nuclear microreactors to power far-flung bases.

    Pentagon to build nuclear microreactors to power far-flung bases

    Pentagon officials recently announced that the Defense Department will build a nuclear microreactor that can be flown to an austere site by a C-17 cargo plane and set up to power a military base. “Project Pele.”

    In the fiscal year 2020, the Pentagon budgeted $63 million for the project, followed by another $70 million in fiscal 2021. Project Pele reports have hailed the fourth-generation nuclear reactor as a “pathfinder” for commercial adoption of the technology.

    The plans call for a 40-ton reactor that can fit in three-to-four 20-foot shipping containers and, once set up, provide 1 to 5 Mega Watts of power on full power operation for up to three years before refueling.

    The microreactor will ultimately join a newer type of nuclear fuel being used in the program at the Idaho National Laboratory. Testing and experimentation will occur in 2024, with demonstrations anticipated by 2025, Waksman said.

    Members of the Nuclear Safety Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists also told Army Times in 2019 that they had major concerns that the Army’s own reporting on the design concept showed such a microreactor would “not be expected to survive a direct kinetic attack.”

    Those include places such as Fort Greely, Alaska, and Lajes Field, Azores.

    Long & Interesting Read


    [Edit for length. – LVA]

    40

    • #
      Old Cocky

      That rather fleshes out the US Army’s recent announcement about going carbon-free for bases and non-tactical vehicles.

      00

  • #
    Tony Spink

    It depends on where you live as to what the climate is doing. According to elders weather site, Lakes Entrance has only had one month in the past thirty where the average day temperature has been in the positive. Most other months have been -1 or more.

    70

  • #
    Philip

    And with this year being the coolest summer in my living memory, easily, we get confirmation that climate change is real, because of rain. Can you believe it ? This spring I was thinking if we get a hot summer and fires this year the alarmists will go crazy. So we get the coolest summer and they still go crazy. The argument you simply can not win using logic.

    80

    • #
      el+gordo

      It was a cool summer in Sydney, daytime temperatures were down and up at night, so they cancelled each other out. Temps were about average.

      10

      • #
        Forrest Gardener

        EG what you write is a classic example of how averages can be used to destroy information.

        20

        • #
          el+gordo

          The simple fact of the matter, more clouds produce cooler days and warmer nights. This is how its always been constructed.

          00

    • #
      MichaelinBrisbane

      I got tempted for just one swim in our pool this summer.

      20

      • #
        Forrest Gardener

        Luxury. We don’t even have a pool. We have to run under the sprinkler.

        You think you’ve got it tough. We don’t even have a sprinkler. We had to go outside and wait for rain. And we don’t live near Brisbane so we had to wait a while.

        And you tell that to the kids of today. They won’t believe you.

        00

  • #

    I remember a scandal in Astronomy when it was found that the IPCC produced a faked consensus that the Sun was not a key player in climate change, and all from one single scientific paper. Astrophysicists Doug Hoyt and Richard C. Willson, the satellite experts behind the collection of the original data found that the scientists who produced the paper had fraudulently manipulated their data.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nicola-Scafetta/publication/329815053_Statement_of_Richard_Willson_on_the_TSI_ACRIM1_and_ACRIM2_data_modifications_implemented_in_Frohlich's_PMOD_TSI/links/5c1c13b492851c22a33ae2f1/Statement-of-Richard-Willson-on-the-TSI-ACRIM1-and-ACRIM2-data-modifications-implemented-in-Frohlichs-PMOD-TSI.pdf

    50

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Chas the Moderator at WUWT would know that I posted the current pause at 9 years and 8 months, a few days after Dr Spencer released the numbers from UAH at the start of April 2022. Geoff S
    http://www.geoffstuff.com/uah_australia_to_april_2022.jpg

    30

    • #
      el+gordo

      Thanks Geoff, Oz is below the line but its unlikely to become an election issue.

      00

    • #
      Bindidon

      At a first glance, that looks OK, but…

      Trend for UAH 6.0 AUST since Dec 1978: +0.18 ± 0.02 °C / decade

      Trend for UAH 6.0 AUST since Aug 2012: -0.03 ± 0.16 °C / decade

      While the first estimate is statistically significant, the second one is not at all, as the standard error is way higher than the estimate itself.

      20

      • #

        OMG you can’t put errors, confidence intervals or, indeed, any sort of analysis that interrogates an analysis.

        You forgot a conclusion. Charles’s graph is wrong.

        00

  • #
    Russell

    Ground temperature measurement changes used as a proxy indicator of “global” atmospheric warming is just bad science in our modern times.
    Too many confounding physical variables and not enough information to model the “depth” of the fluid. And missing non-land areas without continuous records.
    But as we’ve seen, with a little help from BOM’s ratbag homogenisation, these consumer figures can be used to support any crisis narrative.
    Space measurements are a promising alternative, but suffer the same sort of “inference” modelling from measured radiation.
    Maybe using real temperature measurements from radiosondes which collect temperature data at continuous altitudes to 28km would be better?
    Modelling this data is more complex and may still suffer some physical interference due to limited locations (not many ocean launch sites).
    At least this data is now being collected open-sourced at sondehub (independent of the “infected” meteorological organisations).

    20

  • #
  • #

    It sure is easy to put a bunch of trend lines through subsets of data.

    Let’s see… is this La nina warmer or cooler than the last? Is the most recent El nino wamer or cooler than the one before it?

    12

  • #
    Simon

    UAH estimates troposphere temperature, not surface. The creator of that chart should specify whether the time series is TLT or TMT.

    10

    • #

      It was “Charles”!

      I wonder if Charles could explain the derivation, rational and statistical significance of the lines. Did Charles consider starting a line in 2011 or 1993?

      10

    • #
      el+gordo

      Charles should have specified the time series.

      During 1979-2005 a difference
 was discovered between
 radiosonde
 and
 AMSU, ‘
radiosonde 
datasets
 in
general
 showed 
more
 cooling
 than 
satellite 
data, sets
 in 
stratosphere 
and 
radiosonde 
data 
showed
 cooling
 whereas
 the
 satellite
 indicates
 warming
 in
 global
 or
 hemispheric
 region
 scale.
 


      ‘Therefore,
 this
 research
 suggests
 that
 for
 better
 estimating
 regional
 upper-air
 temperature
 trend
 in
 China
 especially
 in
 the
 lower
 stratosphere
 and
 middle
 troposphere,
 it
 is
 necessary
 to
 analyze
 multiple
 independent
 dataset.’
 


      (Yanjun Guo / National Climate Centre)

      00

    • #
      b.nice

      The trends should not differ as they do, unless you think CO2 causes atmospheric COOLING ! .

      UAH is by far the most accurate measure of temperature trend.

      It covers nearly all the planet, and is validated by USCRN, unadjusted balloon and radiosonde data as well as by CERES, ERBS etc

      GISS et al are fabricated from a sparse, irregularly space set of every changing and urban effected stations.
      70% of the Earth isn’t even measured.

      RSS is fabricated using old degraded satellites, and “adjusted” using “climate models”

      10

    • #
      b.nice

      The data used in the graph is UAH TLT Australia.

      20