JoNova

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The mysterious debilitating Coronavirus convalescence

In Northern Italy, people are talking about how some people have not recovered even two months later. Patients with mild infections can recover, feel fine, and test negative, but then slide into debilitating fatigue, with strange aches and pains, bouts of diarrhea, and  burning eyes. Some of them even test positive again.

And these were not the serious ICU cases which are paralyzed and ventilated. The head doctor of a hospital in Lombardy said “the discomfort often seems to last even longer for people with lighter symptoms. “

Surviving Covid-19 May Not Feel Like Recovery for Some

Debilitating symptoms can last long after a person’s body has gotten rid of the coronavirus, a reality Italians are now confronting.

Jason Horowitz, New York Times

The stubbornness of the virus and the length of the convalescence have become topics of conversation in northern Italy where some of the longest-suffering Italians are finding themselves in physical and financial uncertainty, unable to shake sickness and fatigue and get back to work.

But even some of the infected who have avoided pneumonia describe a maddeningly persistent and unpredictable illness, with unexpected symptoms. Bones feel broken. The senses dull. Stomachs are constantly upset. There are good days and then bad days without apparent rhyme nor reason.

The ACE2 receptors the virus binds to are expressed in the lung, kidney, heart, stomach, liver, thyroid, bladder, breast, uterus, and prostate. Theoretically, especially with random clots, problems could crop up anywhere.

Edmondo Cirielli, a member of Parliament, got sick on March 7th, he suffered debilitating fatigue, sore throat, diarrhea and intense pain at the base of his neck that made it impossible to concentrate. It was up and down for a month,” he said.

Then things got stranger. After 40 days of feeling lousy, he tested negative for the virus, but his eyes still burned and bouts of diarrhea continued, he said.

At the end of the month, he finally felt better, but another test result came back positive, forcing him to spend weeks more in isolation…

There is so much we don’t know about this virus. We don’t know the long term sequelae, or the productivity cost (how many people does this apply too, and how long will it be before these people return to work?). It’s possible the virus may reduce lung capacity (which is associated with higher mortality). It could affect kidney health, or cause heart muscle scarring. If this virus were to shorten life spans by five or ten years, we won’t even know that for twenty years. And if asymptomatic cases can suffer silent effects like microclots, they could still suffer some longer term damage –even though they might not realize they ever had Coronavirus. And if they wait years to do an antibody test, it may be too late to find out (if natural immunity does not last), so they may never know.

It will be difficult to even do those long term studies if we do not start now.

Lingering and painful: the long and unclear road to coronavirus recovery

Nicola Davis, The Guardian

She is not alone: Fiona Lowenstein, a writer in the US, co-founded a group on the social media platform Slack for people who have experienced Covid-19 after it took her weeks to recover from being admitted to hospital with the disease.

Many report waves of symptoms over a period of weeks – from heart palpitations to headaches, shortness of breath and fatigue.

In a survey of group members, 89% of the 465 respondents said they had symptoms that fluctuated in intensity and frequency; 23% had tested positive for coronavirus, taking on average just over nine days to be tested from the onset to symptoms; 28% tested negative and were, on average, tested after about 15 days; and just 3.5% were admitted to hospital, although 38% visited an emergency department.

The Slack group survey found two-thirds of respondents had a pre-existing medical condition, mainly seasonal allergies or asthma.

But Dr James Gill … said data from the Sars outbreak revealed that almost a third of those who had had that particular coronavirus still had a reduced tolerance to exercise many months later, despite having normal lung function. While Gill stressed that Covid-19 was a different disease, he said it could be that a similar proportion of about a fifth or a third of those with Covid-19 had lengthy recovery time .

Prof David Heymann said concern was starting to mount that the virus might trigger some form of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.  “We don’t know”.

Of the 712 cases on the Diamond Princess, three months later, 48 are still listed on worldometer as “active cases” and 4 are listed as still in a serious or critical condition. Does anyone know if these numbers are correct?

 

REFERENCES

High expression of ACE2 receptor of 2019-nCoV on the epithelial cells of oral mucosa, Nature, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x

Pedone, et al (2012) Association of Reduced Total Lung Capacity With Mortality and Use of Health Services, April 2012Volume 141, Issue 4, Pages 1025–1030 , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.11-0899

 

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263 comments to The mysterious debilitating Coronavirus convalescence

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    Post viral infection problems from mild muscle aches for weeks, to complete debilitation for life, are hardly unusual. Yes infections can lie dormant and relapse, but mostly after the immune system has fought a war, it’s reluctant to calm down and tends to attack things it shouldn’t. Why does this have to be portrayed as yet another reason CV19 is worse than everything else……..?

    3711

    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      Where does Jo say it’s, “worse than everything else.”?

      The way I read it, this is simply saying that C-19 appears to trigger a chronic inflammatory response, as part of the growing understanding of exactly what C-19 is, and what its effects are/might be. Yes, we know that viral infections can trigger inflammation, but not all do, and not every time, so this is another small piece of the jigsaw puzzle and adds to our so-far limited understanding of C-19.

      But perhaps you see what YOU expect to see.

      Oh and thanks again to Jo, for taking the time to gather all this info together and present it in such an easily-understood fashion.

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      • #
        Gary

        Jo serches for anything to confirm her bias views, how about researching pressure on hospitals in America to confirm Covid patients,good bye Jo, hello Jon Rappoport

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        • #

          Heard it all. I’m sure there is dodginess and conflicts of interest. Doesn’t change the big picture.

          There are scores of other countries showing similar excess mortality — not just covid reported deaths but a wave of more than that.

          Are those dead bodies imaginary? Are they faking the stats on those? Are there really not freezer trucks and ice rinks with bodies in them?

          Are the hundreds of doctors in Italy, France, the UK, Iran, all responding to the US hospital payments?

          Are these patients in Italy being paid to feel nauseous, aches and burning eyes?

          2811

          • #
            Bright Red

            Jo given you have me in Quarantine this post is for you. I Have been a long time chocolate supplier and have admired the work and effort you have put into the climate change debate. Not long after you started on CV19 I started noticing that what I disliked about the warmIst side of the climate change debate was appearing in your posts and comments. Examples provided on request.

            [Thank you for your support. And more than happy to talk about this further. Up for the challenge. Bear in mind though, you'll need to keep your wits about you. ;-) Demonstrating that I have selected one side is not the same as demonstrating that I'm wrong. Email coming. This could be quite productive. - Jo]

            00

          • #
            JCW

            …”scores, similar excess, a wave, freezer trucks with bodies…”. Come on. What is the excess mortality rate as based on countries with reliable data? Is this excess mortality rate a risk worth the actions the state has taken? In pandemics, as life, there are only trade offs. A stadium field hospital full of empty beds is as irrelevant to what the excess mortality rate is as a freezer truck full of bodies. Science, Jo.

            51

            • #

              Science Jo, exactly. I’ve discussed the data already. You must have missed it.

              http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/new-york-like-mass-casualty-event-coronavirus-and-other-deaths-up-three-fold/
              http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/death-tolls-could-be-60-higher-than-official-numbers-all-cause-mortality-is-at-record-highs/
              See also https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

              “In life there are only trade offs.” So true. What kind of civilization do we want to live in?

              Does it matter what voters want?

              Do we give up on the guys who fought for our freedom because they’re going to die anyway? How much else will we lose if we do that. Will a younger generation even want to fight to defend a nation that won’t protect them when they get old?

              Do we ignore the unknowns in new viral diseases which can mutate randomly (to be nicer or nastier), or potentially cause long term debilitating conditions which may shorten life spans, infect animals, (Area we sure yet that this will not affect agriculture?) We may have no useable vaccines, no long term immunity, and it could be engineered thus making it very hard to predict. Or is it wiser to hold off for a few months til we know more? (Which we have done so successfully). I would argue, easily, the short sharp quarantine will be better for the economy than any other option. Watch the countries that get their science wrong, and flounder through ongoing uncertainty, repeat clusters, repeat lockdowns, and the lack of confidence that will rain down.

              42

              • #
                JCW

                Data question was rhetorical (you must of missed it). I’m fond of this blog site but rather perplexed by Jo’s entire thought process on Covid. She and I no doubt would agree on this: we have different risk tolerance regarding the Covid virus, which is the fundamental point. Cheers.

                21

    • #
      Geoff Croker

      “More than 72 per cent of the nation­’s 13.2 million-strong labour force is now employed by federal, state or local governments, supported by JobKeeper or in receipt of JobSeeker.”

      Autoimmune (self destruction) is prevalent in us all. Suppressing it with wisdom is hard to do because the system does NOT reward wisdom.

      Regulated interference can make life miserable. The regulators are just as mindless as any white blood cell. They live off the host. If they kill the host, they die, but will insist it was NOT their FAULT.

      The next oil crisis on May20-21st is almost upon us. Oil may go negative.

      If Silver starts to move confidence in “money” is in deep peril. Gold is already on the march. No gold pile, no Fed, no reserve currency. I recall a promise by the Donald of an audit……..

      219

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Irrelevant to Jo’s post. So I red thembed you Geoff.

        825

        • #
          Geoff Croker

          Saving a few people from death and destruction will cause massive death and destruction.

          Large projects calculate an expected death rate and allow for insurance.

          We are at a decision point. Go with the low death rate of sub 100 but destroy our way of life or accept a few thousand will die but hope it is not our turn.

          Many will say one death is too many. They are usually those who are not in the “firing” line. We will not have to wait much longer for a time when we are ALL in the “firing” line.

          It will become difficult to tell the difference between those that have a genuine auto-immune problem and those that are just depressed by their financial position.

          117

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            The Sydney Harbour Bridge should never have been built.

            101

          • #
            MP

            “Many will say one death is too many. They are usually those who are not in the “firing” line. We will not have to wait much longer for a time when we are ALL in the “firing” line”

            I think it is more to do with those who will lose nothing Vs those with nothing to lose.

            I say keep the printing presses churning, run up the debt pay everyone’s bills and put it all on the account of the kids and grand kids, that should fix it.

            83

        • #
          Geoff Croker

          Should have red thumbed me on my original post when I said it was only 63%! This was clearly wrong. I was an optimist.

          33

          • #
            Geoff Croker

            The only thing to take home about government management of this pandemic is that there is little difference between this scare and climate change. It is ALL ABOUT THE MONEY AND WHO GETS IT.

            The data is all about models.
            We can’t go back to normal.
            We need more testing.
            We need different tests.
            We need more PPE.
            We need SWAT teams to subdue breakouts.
            We need more money.
            This can never end without a vaccine.

            The stupidity of going along with this by otherwise intelligent people is amazing.

            164

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              “Plandemic Central” eh Geoff ! Good luck with that ‘fight’. It’s so frustrating when 99% of the people are not even listening to your rants….And you can’t even raise some scary fake ‘science’ like the Global warmists do. Yes it’s a hard gig !

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              • #
                MP

                Im listening and he has the right to an opinion.

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              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Who is the “he’ you refer to ?..
                As for you ‘listening; I suggest it’s all from ‘Plandemic Conspiracy Central’ in the USA
                And your role is to set up a sub branch here by trashing Jo’s blog.

                413

              • #
                MP

                He is Geoff, he is the one you replied to, my reply was to you.
                Im a 1%er

                92

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                MP has a point, everyone has an opinion.
                If you cant deal with it, dont read it.
                Simple.

                101

              • #
              • #

                everyone has an opinion and anyone can voice their disagreement with it. That is how, like Bill, I deal with it. The conspiracies, like those who are promulgating them, are quite thick at the moment.

                31

              • #
                Mark D.

                The conspiracies, like those who are promulgating them, are quite thick at the moment.

                Agree, and whenever that happens, Gee, you should be worried I think.

                31

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Geoff,

                The link to the major league baseball you gave below is good. I left it at 6 minutes but the discussion was clear and sensible to that point. What was the main message you were pointing to?

                KK

                10

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                Gee Aye.

                When you say;

                “That is how, like Bill, I deal with it.”

                To which “Bill” are you referring?

                When he continually says stuff like:

                “Irrelevant to Jo’s post. So I red thembed you Geoff.”

                Which Bill? The Headmaster, The Captain Ugger clone, the Bloody Virus Crusher, The second in charge of the Palace Guard here, or some other incarnation?

                Life’s complicated when we have absolute freedom.

                To conform.

                KK

                20

      • #
        TedM

        Not sure of the relevance GC.

        33

    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      It’s consistent, MrGrimNasty. Panicdemics can’t continue to infect people’s minds unless the message is always one of pain and suffering.

      The heading of the MLB article posted here does not say the MLB antibody test was not a random, representative sample. Instead, it uses the modifier “only” to indicate finding 0.7% infection rate is somehow indicative of the wrong thing to find. The fact that it is not a random sample is mentioned 4 paragraphs later.

      How would science have expressed the result? Like this: “Large antibody study on US baseball teams finds 0.7% infection rate”. No emotion-triggering, “only”. Just the facts.

      Imagine that. Millionaire elite athletes whose jobs were closed down who probably have their groceries done for them, and have medical teams dedicated to their ongoing health throughout an MLB season, didn’t get infected by a virus predominantly hitting old people in nursing homes. So weird, right?

      But when people mentioned the FB-curated antibody test sample, the main response seemed to be, “it’s not random”.

      Most / many people don’t even know they have COVID-19, but the article we get is “The mysterious debilitating Coronavirus convalescence”.

      From Italy.

      This is something I noticed previously. Everybody clamouring for lock down or we’d “Be just like Italy”, when nothing could be further from the truth. Then a month or so later, when America became the worst COVID-19 out break we had to continue the lock down to prevent us becoming “just like America”. Always choosing the worst current place as “evidence” we were doing the “right thing” or had to continue.

      Now we’re focusing on the worst case recovery scenarios from the earliest outbreak – Italy.

      It’s consistent.

      Falsifiability says you try to disprove your hypothesis. All I see here is confirmation bias articles.

      139

      • #

        Aaron, pretending that the extended pain, inexplicable behaviour of a new virus is just a marketing message may help you feel better, but it does nothing to address the risk of allowing a new unknown virus to roam free. It doesn’t heal the sick, ignores the productivity hit and potential years of life lost.

        I don’t claim to know these answers, but these risks need to be considered, just as the unknowable risk of suicides, undiagnosed cancers, loss of elective surgery etc needs to be considered too. Those are “emotion-triggering” fact free claims, but you don’t complain about them being waved around.

        The Strawman arguments are a bore. Try to keep up. Most countries are over the lockdown stage now, in the West only the sabotaged UK and US, Canada, Sweden are not. I called for borders to be shut on Feb 9 to prevent a lockdown, and when they weren’t I predicted lockdown was inevitable a month before it happened. I also predicted it would succeed quickly when it was done properly, which it has. I’ve been right on nearly everything. Tedious eh? I’m now saying keep the borders closed and let economies reopen in nations that crushed the curve. I’m advocating internal borders be used in the struggling countries, so the lockdowns can be ended faster in rural and safe areas.

        As for falsifiability, it apparently doesn’t matter what I write. Do you even read past the headlines? I’ve read, quoted and linked to the studies and videos that contradict my message, and I post links to them and explain why they are wrong. If you don’t have an answer then accusing me of “confirmation bias” looks more like a projection of your own state…

        236

        • #
          Aaron Christiansen

          “Do you even read past the headlines? ”

          Jo it takes 18 seconds to load one of your website’s pages.

          About the same time to submit a response.

          If I could load pages at the same speed as most other websites I visit – around 500ms,
          I would have had a more exhaustive read of previous articles you have posted, but as
          it is, the wait is too painful, so I will admit, I have not read everything you
          have posted re: COVID-19, no. Only the ones posted since I started visiting regularly
          a week ago or so.

          I find it curious you claim “Sweden are not over lock down” given the popular message
          here is they did not go into lock down.

          96

        • #
          Aaron Christiansen

          “Do you even read past the headlines?”

          Just did that – compiled all past CV19 headlines back to February.

          The summary of my heading analysis is as follows:

          39 CV19 headings
          12 “CV19 scary” headings
          3 “Nothing bad about lock down” headings
          6 Political / “China bad” headings
          4 “CV 19 can be eliminated” headings

          “I’ve read, quoted and linked to the studies and videos that contradict my message, and I post links to them and explain why they are wrong.”

          I’ll look at that next.

          71

          • #

            Aaron, congratulations, you have worked out I’ve come to a different conclusion to you.It’s not a secret.

            We both are subject to confirmation bias (everyone is) but one of us is quite wrong about the virus.

            Unfortunately investigating confirmation bias in headline phrases won’t answer that.

            Your job Aaron, is to read medical studies and explain where I’m wrong, or find a logical error…

            22

            • #
              Aaron Christiansen

              “Your job Aaron, is to read medical studies and explain where I’m wrong, or find a logical error…”

              You didn’t respond to my last logical error clarification request.

              The same can be said for WXCycle and his “colder countries are 25% more infectious than hot countries ‘analysis’”.
              And sophocles’ inabilty to respond to “How does a low Vitamin D-induced suppressed immune system make the flu virus appear”?

              I keep reading that scientists are rarely certain, and all they can really do is prove something is false, not true.

              The gravest logical error I see is claiming “lock down has worked”. It’s a temporal logic error – this pandemic has not finished and you are already declaring success.

              It boggles my mind.

              23

              • #
                WXcycles

                The same can be said for WXCycle and his “colder countries are 25% more infectious than hot countries ‘analysis’”.

                You have some cheek there, you have NO DATA to support any of your claims.

                From you remarks:

                This means your analysis is not comparing each country at the same point in its viral infection life cycle.

                That objection is nonsense, each of the infected warm or cold countries that met these conditions were examined: (and that is present on EVERY on of the results I posted)

                Countries % Died > 500 cases and > 2.5%

                If countries met those conditions, i.e. showing they had a significant infection, they were tracked individually for as long as they met those conditions, over 14 days, to show beyond dispute that within the data we have, the warmer countries were spreading the virus faster than the colder countries were.

                Which result was (and still is) the opposite of what the PEOPLE WHO HAD NOT BOTHERED To CHECK THE DATA, were claiming.

                The virus does consistently spread faster in warmer countries, here’s the proof I uncovered, that anyone can go back and check to details of:

                The 14 days of results are unambiguous, the virus spreads consistently faster in warmer countries and is atleast as severe in warmer countries:

                https://i.ibb.co/pxTBjv0/Warm-v-Cool-Countries-Percent-Died-Covid-19-29th-March-to-11th-April.png

                But you, who has no data supporting you, has the cheek to talk to me about “confirmation bias“!?

                You have presented no contrary data showing an opposite trend, you are just talking empty rubbish and smearing people. If you claim to be a ‘scientist’, then you accept the data, unless you can prove it to be wrong. You haven’t. Any lazy slob can do nothing, and talk rubbish, go waste someone else’s morning with your baseless waffle.

                As for this:

                I posted counter arguments to that (heat + humidity kills viruses, including COVID-19) but you did not respond.

                Firstly, I never saw your replies as I spend my time looking at data, and secondly, I’m not the slightest bit interested in your irrelevant theoretical “counter-argument”fluff, when I have primary observational data to examine.

                I would be very interested in COUNTER DATA from the COVID-19 dataset which demonstrates that what I showed was incorrect. I’d like to know that, if it were true. But you haven’t even tried to do that, have you? As there’s no data which contradicts what I found. Within the data we have the conclusions I reached after monitoring for 14 days the data tabulated and linked given above, are correct.

                And there’s no data support for your false, but often asserted position, that the virus SHOULD BE less contagious, and/or less severe within warmer weather countries.

                The DATA shows that isn’t so.

                That would be sufficient, what’s stopping you proving it quantitatively, if you’re so sure you’re right?

                COVID-19 spreads faster in warmer weather, and it’s at least as severe as it is within colder countries. Mere counter “arguments” which waffle on about what THEORETICALLY SHOULD BE do not counter what is OBSERVED. In science the observations trump the baseless theories.

                If you don’t have any data that does this, then I’m not going to be interested in whatever misdirecting time-wasting blather you have to offer on the topic.

                00

              • #
                Aaron Christiansen

                WXCycles: “You have some cheek there, you have NO DATA to support any of your claims.”
                I am guessing you did not read my comment, as I link to the data directly.

                Me: This means your analysis is not comparing each country at the same point in its viral infection life cycle
                You: That objection is nonsense, each of the infected warm or cold countries that met these conditions were examined

                You are not disagreeing with me here though. I know you compared the countries, but you made a temporal error. You compared them at different *times* (“point”) in their infection life cycle. A life cycle that follows a normal distribution.

                Do you know what a normal distribution is?

                You: “If countries met those conditions, i.e. showing they had a significant infection, they were tracked individually for as long as they met those conditions, over 14 days”

                Strictly speaking, you tracked countries for 14 days from 29th March, if they had 500 or more infections, etc, adding them as they hit 500+ infections, etc.
                I tracked the exact same countries for 14 days from the date that they satisfied the 500+ infections, etc. ie apples to apples.

                You completely ignore the fact that lots more cold countries were added to their list, meaning you were tracking the slow start of a normal distribution curve more often for cold countries. You also ignored the countries that had had infections much, much earlier (eg: Italy, Spain), and were thus at the tail end of their infection life cycle.

                I am pretty stunned that someone who likes to analyse data did not even read my comment, but disagrees out of hand, ignoring the points I raised (specifically comparing normal distribution curves at different starting points), the data I linked to and the studies that prove your analysis is most likely in error.

                00

              • #
                Aaron Christiansen

                WXcycles: did you even read my counter-analysis? I am guessing no. It has links to data, etc.

                I linked to it, but I am guessing you did not click the link to see what I was talking about.

                If you did, can you explain why the images I link to, which contain the summary of the data I am basing my counter-analysis on, using the data I linked to, are so counter to what you found?

                Please either tell me the data I linked to is wrong, or that my lookups into the data (specifically the date for each country of when they hit 500+ infections) is in error.

                00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Good grief Jo, there are already a host of good people out here who are trying to help. As a journalist/researcher, you cannot be expected have all the answers and i for one do not expect you to have all the answers. Why not encourage diversity of opinion and expertise from as many as you can muster? For example, i recently became aware of Professor Dolores Cahill here.

          40

    • #
      Klem

      Long convelecence from cvd-19 is unusual in what way?

      Five years ago I suffered through a ‘flu’ that left me deaf in one ear and a cough that lingered for a year. I finally went to the doctor about my endless cough, and she said she was still treating people for the same symptoms from the flu that struck the previous year. So I wasn’t alone.

      That flu killed thousands of people and recovery was measured in years, but no one cared. It was just a flu after all.

      Why do we insist on making cvd-19 out to be this horrendous bogeyman?

      We are struck by these infections every year.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Are you sure Klem ?
        The quarantine & lockdown may well have wiped out the viruses which cause that flu you mention.. Certainly here in Oz that seems to be the case anecdotally. And it will stay that way until international flights resume some time next year maybe.

        25

      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “Why do we insist on making cvd-19 out to be this horrendous bogeyman?”

        It is a conundrum, isn’t it?

        The key for me is that it looks like flu hits children far more than COIVD-19 has.

        At the present time, our data indicate that children are at far greater risk of critical illness from influenza than from COVID-19.

        It’s a tragedy that anyone has to die, but children are our future. Which makes the apparent complete disregard for seasonal flu each year all the more difficult to comprehend.

        40

  • #
    ren

    Istnieją dalsze dowody, że Cov-2 inaktywuje enzym ACE 2, którego rolą jest zapobieganie zwężeniu naczyń krwionośnych. Okazuje się, że rola ACE 2 w ciele jest znacznie ważniejsza niż nam się wydaje.
    Abstrakcyjny
    Pandemia Covid-19 ujawniła, że ​​u wielu pacjentów występuje utrata węchu, w tym u osób zakażonych, ale poza tym bezobjawowych. Mechanizmy leżące u podstaw objawów węchowych są niejasne. Za pomocą modelu mysiego ustaliliśmy, czy komórki nabłonka węchowego wyrażają obowiązkowe receptory do wejścia wirusa SARS-CoV-2, stosując RNAseq, RT-PCR, hybrydyzację in situ, Western blot i immunocytochemię. Pokazujemy, że białko powierzchniowe ACE2 i proteaza TMPRSS2 ulegają ekspresji w podtrzymujących komórkach nabłonka węchowego, ale nie, lub znacznie mniej, w większości neuronów receptorowych węchowych. Dane te sugerują, że komórki podtrzymujące biorą udział w wejściu wirusa SARS-CoV-2 i zaburzeniu węchu u pacjentów z COVID-19. Pokazujemy również, że ekspresja białek wejściowych wzrasta u zwierząt w starszym wieku.
    https://images.tinypic.pl/i/01005/q1skmnpf8sd1.png
    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acschemneuro.0c00210

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  • #
    ren

    The Covid-19 pandemic revealed that there is a loss of smell in many patients,
    including in infected, but otherwise asymptomatic individuals. The underlying
    mechanisms for the olfactory symptoms are unclear. Using a mouse model, we
    determined whether cells in the olfactory epithelium express the obligatory receptors
    for entry of the SARS-CoV-2 virus by using RNAseq, RT-PCR, in situ hybridization,
    Western blot, and immunocytochemistry. We show that the cell surface protein ACE2
    and the protease TMPRSS2 are expressed in sustentacular cells of the olfactory
    epithelium, but not, or much less, in most olfactory receptor neurons. These data
    suggest that sustentacular cells are involved in SARS-CoV-2 virus entry and
    impairment of the sense of smell in COVID-19 patients. We also show that
    expression of the entry proteins increases in animals of old age. This may explain – if
    true also in humans – why individuals of older age are more susceptible to the SARSCoV-2 infection.
    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acschemneuro.0c00210

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    mareeS

    Last October/November/December,2019 I had a recurrent bout of what seemed to be a low-level type of flu. I would recover, then I would get sick again, back in bed for a day or two, perpetually exhausted otherwise. Red inflamed eyes were terrible, I had bouts of vomiting etc, but mostly, I just needed to sleep, couldn’t eat, but was not so particularly ill that I thought I needed medical treatment. Now I wonder. It is mid-May now and I am better but still sleeping lots.

    170

  • #
    ren

    A 27-year-old strong and healthy Polish footballer had a high fever for four days. Then came the solstice. But he couldn’t do anything for two weeks. He felt pressure in his lungs. After a month, he began to recover.

    91

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    The more this seems unique, the more important it is to determine if it came from a lab, and, if
    so, what it’s biological genesis was.

    250

  • #
    Binny Pegler

    Sounds a bit like Ross River Fever.

    130

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      Ross River fever is caused by a viral infection, transmitted through mosquito bites. Symptoms include fever, rash, and joint pains. Prevention relies on avoiding mosquito bites.

      Yes it does, and RRF is a virus as well. Interesting.

      130

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        In the early 1990′s my ex wife came down with RRV.. The Doctor’s were no use at all…
        But a vet focussed friend suggested taking a teaspoon of Hydrogen peroxide in a glass of water along with Iodised Silver each day. The logic as I remember was that this would cleanse the blood of the virus.. It did ease the symptoms.

        56

        • #
          glen Michel

          The cure for Ross river was grabbing the electric fence. Bit of a shake up.

          20

          • #
            glen Michel

            It has been a long time between stings but recently was letting a horse out of a yard and got one right against the back. Rattled my choppers.

            30

      • #
        john karajas

        RRF originally comes from kangaroos and is transmitted by mosquitoes.

        50

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          In East Gippsland it is associated with rural areas in wet years.
          So that figures as in those locations in those years there is lots of grass for ‘roos.

          34

        • #
          ivan

          migrating birds aare the main resevoir –hence the increase in wet years

          20

      • #
        TedM

        Been there, had that. Not nice.

        32

    • #
      WXcycles

      Agree, took ~4 months to get over the joint pain from Ross River fever.

      74

    • #
      greggg

      When I caught Ross River virus I didn’t get any symptoms other than becoming more fatigued than I already was. Most people who catch it are asymptomatic.

      00

  • #
    Ian1946

    Anyone who has contracted Ross River Fever knows those symptoms, and like Malaria, it never goes away.

    170

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    If you were designing a bioweapon, the ability to disable your intended target would be on the list of what you would want.

    The longer this goes on and the more we learn about this thing, the less I can accept its not been engineered in some way. People are welcone to stick thier heads in the sand if they want if course….

    Gain of function research in a lab and all that…which brings us back to….

    202

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      And just when it couldnt get any worse…

      Trump announces effectively forced vaccination by the military for entire US population.

      If you reguse do they shoot you?

      The beginning of medical tyranny?

      1930s Germany or land of the free?

      http://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-05-14/trump-says-will-mobilize-us-military-to-deliver-coronavirus-vaccine

      “WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is mobilizing the U.S. military to distribute a novel coronavirus vaccine when one becomes available and will focus first on older Americans.

      “”You know it’s a massive job to give this vaccine,” Trump said in an interview broadcast Thursday on Fox Business Network. “Our military is now being mobilized so at the end of the year, we’re going to be able to give it to a lot of people very, very rapidly.”

      “He said he believes there will be a vaccine by the end of the year and the United States is mobilizing “our military and other forces” on that assumption.

      “The White House has set a target of having 300 million vaccine doses by the end of 2020.

      30

    • #
      Konrad

      Almost certainly a Gain of Function study that escaped the lab in an accident.

      But the evidence is against it being an intentional bioweapon. China would avoid a virus that target the ACE2 receptor if they were developing such a thing. Their own population would be most at risk from a virus targeting that receptor.

      The purpose of such a GOF study was most likely to provide a novel target to test “spectrum vaccines”.

      That said, after the October accident, China appears to have effectively allowed the virus to become a bioweapon. “Cover up” to “save face” simply cannot excuse so many of the CCP actions after the accident. There is only one explanation that fits their actions: after realizing the huge economic impact the accident was going to cause China, they resisted actions to prevent the global spread, so nations they viewed as competitors were similarly disadvantaged.

      I suspect the CCP believed their totalitarian system of government would allow them to stop the virus in China, while “weak” and “decadent” western nations that valued individual freedom could not. They even made early boasts along these lines. But we can see those boasts were a mistake. China does not have this virus under control within their borders. Draconian lockdowns, masks, Orwellian tracking apps, they had it all. Yet the virus continues to spread.

      It turns out that for stopping a virus that builds an infection in the gastrointestinal tract, sanitation systems were a little more important than systems of government. It might also pay to consider your agricultural fertilizer choices …

      50

  • #
    Ruairi

    With symptoms long lasting and gross,
    Making shaves with mortality close,
    It’s more like a guess,
    For a test to say yes,
    With this very weird Corona dose.

    260

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    This seems to be a fairly balanced article about Sweden and hows its managed things.

    It makes the point the Swedes have high levels of trust within society, something that we may not have. That said, maybe at some stage, Australia has to mature a bit more.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds?utm_medium=social

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Sweden has a died % of total cases value of 12.4%, Australia is 1.4%. Why any one thinks Sweden’s doing OK or is a model for how to do it I’ll never know, it’s in the top-25 worst performing countries, and had 637 new cases yesterday, plus has an appalling 42% closed-cases death-rate, which is rising, not falling. What Sweden is doing sure isn’t going well, their still rising Active Cases graph shows they’re leaving themselves open to a much worse situation developing in coming months.

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

      178

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I often wonder if we have multiple resurgences ( 2nd, 3rd 4th wave, etc ) whether we will wind up with the same proportional total, just over a longer period.

        Time will tell.

        The other thing is if we keep shutting down our economy, long term we are cactus. I think we need to have backbone and just work through this.

        Its a war, there are going to be casualties.

        254

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Steve, despite Trump’s claims, this is not a war. It is an infectious pandemic disease.
          So all ideas that we should teat this virus as a a war are seriously misplaced.
          As for the Swedes their trust in the government has been betrayed.

          1019

        • #
          WXcycles

          Time will tell, yes, but there is no need to have any successive waves at all, that’s entirely preventable and in Australia there won’t be any. Limited outbreaks, yes, but a general re-expansion right across the country — no. Quarantine and local isolation will prevent that.

          As for the ultimate case and death totals, that will be managed either due to an immune system treatment, or a response that provides managed sustainable quasi-herd immunity (vaccine or antivirals, etc), or a real heard immunity — which would be a failure to do significantly better.

          But, did we need ‘herd immunity’ to smallpox to make it go away? Nope. All we had to do was keep smallpox out. And Australia and a few some parts of Scandinavia were the very first countries to do that to smallpox. Everyone else saw that it was possible and did the same. And after many decades is was finally gone from every country. But it was gone very quickly from those countries which decided to eliminate it, completely, and keep it out with quarantine, isolation.

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          • #
            Annie

            Those of us who are in the ‘elderly’ group have sported the funny scar on our upper arms that resulted from the smallpox vaccination.
            That was the one proper use of the word ‘vaccine’. The smallpox vaccine was derived from cowpox and the Latin for cow is ‘vacca’.
            Other things are immunisations or inoculations properly speaking.
            I remain somewhat cynical that there will ever be a good immunisation for the WuFlu; you can but live in hope.

            190

            • #
              Annie

              Ooh! In moderation.

              30

            • #
              WXcycles

              I have one of those scars as well Annie but I’m only 55. I was told I got the jab when I was 8 days old, so it was still the standard practice for new-borne babies in 1965. I do remember getting a painless diphtheria inoculation at school in 1973, plus some other systematic inoculation at high school in 1979. They didn’t muck about back then, there was no asking parents for permissions either, we got no warning, we were marched out of the class and made to line up, and they sprang it on everyone as you waked in one door and out the other back to the classroom. No time to think about it, no backing-out, everyone got the needle. And out of two whole schools full of kids (~2,000 pupils) no one got sick or even died. You’d think this was unusual from the way people carry on about the alleged ‘evils’ of vaccines these days.

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          • #
            td

            We should also remember that effective vaccines for smallpox were developed in the 19th century and there was mass vaccination of populations until the 1970′s. The industrialized nations achieved herd immunity quite early using the vaccines, which ultimately allowed elimination by case detection, tracking and quarantine.

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            • #

              TD, true though not so for all the viruses that simply don’t lend themselves to vaccines. Eg RSV, coronavirus colds, norwalk viruses. These we seem destined to recatch and recatch. :-(

              95

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            You are not going to stop other infections – its impossible without locking down everyone and testing everyone. And frankly its not feasible.

            That means we have to work out how to manage what comes next. Social distancing is a joke – sneezing sprays droplets 10m+ so 1.5m social distancing is a complete joke also.
            I see it as an opportunity for the control freaks in govt to get their jollies, at our expense.
            I went into a dept store – the hall monitor pleb they had out the front was very studiously counting people in to not offend the social distancing “gods”, and then everyone lined up at the exit checkouts with maybe half meter max. between each person. Its a joke…..lets get real about how people really behave.

            In terms of secondary round of infections, manage those tightly – rapid quarantine and aggressive contact tracing. Throw out that stupid covid app and replace it with actual leg work. Its a lazy mans snooping-ware.
            Also make sure the elderly are aggressively protected and tight quarantine around nursing homes.
            I think we need to target resources to where they make the most benefit.
            Having a while economy shut down while a relatively small group are at risk is just unnecessary.

            I dont expect people to agree with me, but thats fine.

            Like I said, this is a war, there will be casualties, but putting a whole army in a bunker and waiting it out, is not how you win a war.

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        • #
          Bright Red

          It seems those without a backbone don’t want anyone else to have one either.

          30

      • #
        Bulldust

        I imagine the majority of Swedes dying would be the ‘old Swedes’, which the Swedish Government is more than happy to replace with ‘new Swedes’. Unlike the USA where the minorities are over represented in the CCP virus deaths, I would think the situation reversed in Sweden, because of the demographic differences. If you don’t understand what I am talking about, just Google image search ‘new Swedes.’ So progressive …

        120

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Out with old Swedes And in with the new from places like Syria. Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey…
          Nothing to see here. Just peanuts !

          97

        • #
          WXcycles

          New Swedes are assembled in Germany from spare parts but are really cheap imported products and much overrated. They come with a pre-installed sun tan but this is a very expensive ‘feature’ and the quality control issues in all other areas will make you ask for your money back. But Germany sells them on without a warranty and the EU protects the German manufacturers with a ‘no-return, no-refund’ policy with full indemnity, so you’re stuck with your gleaming new dodgy Swede, and due to very low demand plus the resale value is negative.

          253

      • #

        WX, in Sweden 88% of deaths are over 70 years old. see https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/. It appears those with dark skin (African, and Middle east origin -as supposed refugees)are over represented in virus affected compared to the proportion in the population but there are no statistics on that as the socialist government prefers a) open borders and b) open gates to so-called refugees. I understand Denmark is not so welcoming and many Africans have left to go back to their home countries. The deaths in Sweden may be higher as there are some no go areas which will not allow police or ambulances. The vast majority of deaths have been in Stockholm the largest city but I feel that Malmeo and Gottenburg which have no-go areas are underrepresented.

        101

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Sounds like they haven’t heard of the need for, and general deficiencies of vitamin D, let alone their racial and seasonal causes.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          40

          • #
            sophocles

            My thoughts entirely.
            They’re now about 5 weeks away from their summer solstice. Hopefully, for their sake, the figures start to improve.

            10

    • #
      TdeF

      They have 3,500 dead people and climbing and we have 90. They have 30,000 infected and we had 6,500 and as detailed here many who survive will have serious problems for an abbreviated life.

      Sweden has 10.5 million and we have 26 million.

      If we were as ‘mature’ we would have 10,000 dead. Why is that mature?

      And London is now under 20 new cases a day, copying our strategy. It will be the world’s strategy while we hope for an inoculation or the arrival of a benign strain. (my theory)

      It’s not as if this hasn’t all happened before, but it seems we have to learn all over again as every journalist has their say. And even St. Greta who is now an epidemiologist. Apparently. She is obviously very mature.

      Clearly Climate Change was not getting Greta the attention she needed, so a quick career change. She could be President of Sweden some day.

      235

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Steve Heller did the same career change as well. Very curious. Maybe like Greta he craved more public attention after his expertise on the global warming scam became ‘un-newsworthy’.

        610

      • #
        TdeF

        In this new world of pseudo science and ignorance, actual qualifications are obviously an impediment.

        Take our former Government appointed Climate Council, not one of whom had any qualifications in meteorology. Dead Wombats, rubber tyres, general administration and chemistry. Obviously experts in Climate. The same with the 97% of scientists story, if you explicitly exclude at a minimum all professional meteorologists.

        So our opinions come from Hollywood, where as Ricky Gervais said, most have spent less time at school than Greta. Or from journalists who went to journalist school and became experts in everything. In fact if you read the click bait youth media, you would have to doubt any expertise. Masters of the Universe at 18.

        164

      • #
        WXcycles

        If we were as ‘mature’ we would have 10,000 dead. Why is that mature?

        Because we would also then be pretending that we had wisely, “saved the economy”. But that will turn out to be ‘false-economy’, as Sweden’s active cases continue to grow, and they have a horrific death rate within their data which is almost as bad a Belgium, France or the UK.

        And people are calling this failed experiment a standout success! And it is far from clear that the economy has been spared damage at all.

        They’re just pretending not to have done a lockdown, but a Rick has showed, they do have a lockdown, while they pretend to save the economy, but they haven’t, and while they pretend to defeat COVID-19, but on the contrary, COVID-19 is still having its way with them. They have achieved nothing because even with a +3.3% daily spread rate nationally their active cases keep rising anyway.

        That’s occurring because their capacity to effectively treat COVID19 patients has collapsed. This deceitful glad-handing propaganda about how their hospitals are, “still coping“, is immediately exposed as BS with one look at their numbers. Those describe an overwhelmed (and long ago) collapsed COVID-19 treatment capacity within Sweden. Their death rate continues to rise, because the capacity to treat patients continues to decline, while they still have only 20,000 active cases, and 350 serious critical patients.

        So Sweden’s in deep trouble and is still getting worse each day. It will continue to get worse for as long as they keep kidding themselves that they’re being ‘successful’, via doing as little as possible — until they can’t.

        Meanwhile, Italy will actually fully recover during June, and is well on the way to doing that:

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

        That is because a strong lockdown and quarantine works against COVID-19, but fake soft lock-downs and hopey blurbs do not work.

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

        Sweden’s economy is being damaged, regardless, but it’s going to get damaged much more by the reality that they will still have to impose a true lockdown period to finally stop the active cases from growing each day. They could have simply done the necessary short sharp lockdown, plus improved their border and quarantine controls, and completely ended COVID-19′s domination of Sweden’s future by now. Instead Sweden will drag it out, and get steadily worse, with no end in sight.

        But the proponents of the EU open borders nonsense will keep pushing the lie of fake success in Sweden, and the duped will keep quoting the EU Commission’s propaganda talking points, simply because they want to “save the economy“, and in the process they will damage and impair it far more then was ever necessary.

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      • #
        Bulldust

        On the flip side Australia needs to start moving more quickly. I shall throw a WA perspective on this. Based on 2018 deaths in WA (bear in mind we are only 11-12% of the Aussie population):

        http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=DEATHS_SUMMARY

        We had 14,652 WA deaths in 2018. Fairly much par for the course if you look at the preceding years. Last I checked there are 365.24 days per year. Divide one number into the other and you get an average of 40 deaths per day. So far we lost 9 to the CCP virus. Less than 6 hours worth of your average deaths per day. The entire country lost about two-and-a-half days worth of WA deaths over the last 3 months or so of this pandemic.

        At what cost? At the end of the day you have to put a value on life, challenging as that may be to one’s morals. Even if we say we saved thousands of lives by the draconian measures, how many millions, or tens of millions, per life did that cost Australia? And by Australia, I mean you, every single tax-paying Aussie. That cost will be borne for years, and maybe decades to come, in terms of lost economic growth?

        I am not arguing that the sharp lock down was the wrong move, and besides, that is past now. There’s no point banging on about it. Looking forward we have to get back on track ASAP. Premiers and Feds are way, way, way too timid about relaxing their powers now that the problem has largely passed (for now).

        Besides, Australians will naturally social distance even if we remove all restraints, because we have now been conditioned to be aware of the threats.

        No politicians lost wages throughout this crisis. No bureaucrat is worse off financially. These are the people making the decisions. You think if they were not being paid things might change more rapidly? Ya think??

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        • #
          RickWill

          If WA had only one known community transmission, you have dodge a bullet by quarantining people. If all cases were imported and none were the result of community spread then it was possibly overly cautious to home quarantine.

          Doing any numbers on the numbers of deaths to CV19 with deaths from other causes simply shows a lack of appreciation of exponential growth.

          It is obvious from Taiwan’s experience that closing borders; having an fast accurate CV19 test and an effective contact tracing system is all that is required to crush the virus. I doubt none of those things existed in WA when home quarantine was implemented.

          As far as I know business is much as normal in the Northern Territory already. The States will follow.

          62

          • #
            Bulldust

            I find it rather amusing that people here who are skeptical of climate models, embrace the wonderfully accurate epidemiological ones.

            Protip: All models are wrong, but some are useful.

            The epidemic models pushed by the Brit who ignored quarantine himself have proved a wonderful success, if destroying Western economies was the intended purpose.

            What I am saying, in case it was difficult to grasp, is that this epidemic is a multi-variate problem. People like Jo herself view this with a strong academic bent towards virology/epidemiology. That’s fine, but there are other factors to consider, and the economy is the elephant in the room. Saying we need to close down the economy entirely to save every last life possible is equivalent to burning the village to save it.

            Not sure what is difficult to grasp here. Stating the bleeding obvious doesn’t deserve down votes, unless people are horribly blinkered in their views, or ridiculously partisan. Wonder why Jo has been getting so many down votes lately? I just explained it. Again not criticizing her expertise in virology/science/etc … but without the economy functioning reasonably all the academic introspection about the virus will be moot.

            And to reiterate… I bet every single person wanting more fearful sanctioning of human freedoms right now is not lacking for income.

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            • #
              TdeF

              I do not think you understand how everyone is affected by this. The Stock exchange (everyone’s super) is in real trouble, the manufacturers (a lot of primary jobs) and a lot of retail trade are in trouble. People not being paid means they do not spend, so a lot of property owners are not going to be paid. A lot of companies are not going to declare dividends on which people depend. There is a lot more to the economy than just this business of having a retail job. Everyone is linked in this economy, so the idea of an indulgent few posturing on jobs is ridiculous. Everyone is affected.

              That does not change the value of a single human life, aged 8 or 80. We have saved ten thousands lives against the Swedish model. And Australia is still agonizing about the inhumanity of two single plane crashes? And we still remember the Granville disaster and the shooting at Port Arthur but we are prepared to throw away 10,000 lives and 100,000 lives damaged for the sake of the ‘economy’? And potentially triple that.

              Most people have a different view of society. There are no soup lines and there are no people starving and the government is using taxation income to subsidize jobs and people are deferring rents and charges all over the country. We are all in this together to save tens of thousands of lives and then we will recover.

              But ‘the economy’? To me that is a new terrible religion if it values jobs over lives and quality of life. Jobs will come back. Lives and quality of life are gone forever. And as Jo points out, those who survive will be seriously damaged. For what? A golf game? A night at the pub? A bit of surfing? Running a cafe or waiting on tables?

              Giving away ten thousand lives to save jobs and entertain is not what we fought for in any war. It is the opposite of heroism.

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              • #
                TdeF

                And do not forget that Sweden and Switzerland chose the economy in WWII when they stayed neutral.

                Once again it is not a lead followed by Norway or Denmark or the Nederlands or the UK. And the Nederlands and the UK also started with the idea of herd immunity, but abandoned it when the real human cost was realized. It is not an option for Australia. And everyone is making sacrifices and for the same reason.

                47

              • #
                Bulldust

                Talk about blatant polemics. I am not going to argue in bad faith as you do here TdeF. Call me when you wish to put forward rational arguments. I rarely red thumb … can’t remember the last time, but you earned these.

                73

              • #
                RickWill

                government is using taxation income to subsidize jobs and people are deferring rents and charges all over the country

                No they’re not using taxation income. It is all new money; created at zero cost. An improbable impact would be some inflationary pressure; maybe likely by this time next when the economy is at WOT.

                My financial adviser made a good point toady. The interest being paid on ALL the new money will be less than the current interest paid on existing bonds within a year or two due to the decline in interest rates for new bonds. When the interest goes negative, the government debt becomes a money spinner. Without immigration, the short term interest rates will surely turn negative like has already occurred throughout Europe and Japan.

                The RBA is already into quantitate easing in response to CV19 to underpin economic activity as the restrictions are eased, buying 3-year term Australian bonds:
                https://www.rba.gov.au/covid-19/

                Over recent decades, the Reserve Bank has targeted the overnight cash rate. The Bank has extended this by also targeting a risk-free interest rate further out along the yield curve. The Board announced a target for the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of around 0.25 per cent, to help lower funding costs across the economy.

                A key benefit of the GFC was a better understanding of money in the financial world – a lesson well taken and applied by the Morrison government in 2020.

                This paper, presented as evidence to UK Parliament on household debt and savings is insightful in terms of money supply and quite easy to follow:
                https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/treasury/Written_Evidence/Evidence-Professor-Steve-Keen.pdf

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              • #
                Bulldust

                Hey Rick – I love the whole negative interest rate shenanigans. It is the financial equivalent of traveling beyond an event horizon. In other words, financial mathematics breaks down beyond that point* and we enter fantasy land. I will read the Keen paper – he usually has an interesting take on economic theory.

                * a mate sent an article yesterday in which they said options pricing models break down with negative rates. They have to resort to older models to price options. No doubt many quants are getting brain damaged wrapping their heads around it.

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            • #
              Bill In Oz

              This is Jo’s Blog Bulldust. And Jo has not used ‘model’ in this whole months long debate.
              Jo has used arithmetic alone to answer some simple questions: .
              1: How many are infected ”
              2: How many are dying ?
              3: What is the rate of growth in infections ?
              4 : What is the rate of growth in deaths ?
              5 : What is the rate of spread R/0 ?

              And the arithmetical answers to those questions are easy to calculate.

              So please Bulldust no more comments referring to the ‘models’ a sexed up global warming propagandist in the UK. He is irrelevant to us in Australia and even more irrelevant to you in WA.

              37

              • #
                Bulldust

                Say what now? Here we go into the (not so far) way back machine:

                http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/we-can-hammer-coronavirus-in-weeks-instead-we-go-to-war-unarmoured/

                That word, model, I don’t think it means what you think it means. As for arithmetic, it is essentially a simple model. If you assume a sample with certain characteristics is representative of a population, you are engaged in modelling. Arithmetic would be measuring the entire population and working statistics from 100% of the raw data, not a small sub-sample.

                This is why we have debates back and forth about the usefulness of the simple statistical models. Are the false positives and negatives of tests obliterating any useful information etc? If we could measure the state of the entire population, without false results, we would have no need of models. That is where simple arithmetic would apply and be accurate. But with the pandemic, statistics are not easy to calculate as we have far from perfect and complete information, so we are in the realm of modelling reality.

                If I am saying things that are out of bounds, Jo and mods can caution or edit, but I am certainly not listening to some random person as to what I should or shouldn’t say. But feel free to continue trying to dictate what I should and shouldn’t do. It bemuses me.

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            • #
              Kalm Keith

              From earlier,

              Kalm Keith
              May 15, 2020 at 10:20 am · Reply
              I have never complained about any downturn in the economy.

              My concern, if you switched off the filter, has always been about the Massive Human Damage that is ignored by the cognoscenti.

              Another of my concerns has been the datarisation of this problem when obviously that data is flawed and misleads those supposedly looking for a solution to CV19.

              You cannot compare CV19 data from anywhere to anywhere else with much validity for many reasons besides the shoddy accumulation of said data.

              CV19 is a Multifactorial problem as mentioned previously and Jo has even used the term once or twice.

              Very early on I pointed out two things;

              1. Italy was a special case because it was effectively a branch state of the PRC operating within the EEU.

              2. Old Age was strongly, absolutely linked to the early Australian CV19 deaths.

              Then there are the photos I put up indicating CV19 was possibly associated with Diabetes T2.

              There are a great many more factors such as population density, local climate and even ethnic susceptibility.

              Have all those factors been carefully isolated in The Data?

              No.

              On a more positive note one of the more exciting things was TdeFs post yesterday that postulated on the potential to harvest a valuable component of elderly survivors vital juices for use in accelerating widespread immunity.

              Good analysis.

              KK

              http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/lockdowns-work-influenza-cases-are-90-down-across-17-countries/#comment-2329595

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          • #

            If WA had only one known community transmission, you have dodge a bullet by quarantining people. If all cases were imported and none were the result of community spread then it was possibly overly cautious to home quarantine.

            Rick, WA did have some community transmission.

            But even if it didn’t — we couldn’t know that in early March. If if it turned out WA didn’t need to lockdown that hard, the risk of not doing enough and missing the last warm weather and dealing with this through winter vastly outweighed the risk of doing too much for 6 weeks.

            We had so many huge unknowns the only sensible option was to lock it out until we knew it was safe to let in.

            If only the US and UK had done that.

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            • #
              Konrad

              “We had so many huge unknowns the only sensible option was to lock it out until we knew it was safe to let in.”

              Not just the unknowns, what we did believe was known in late January was reason enough for border closures and supervised quarantine of all returning Australian citizens. What we had then: A novel Coronavirus to which no one had immunity and there was no known treatment. Far higher mortality than seasonal flu. Up to two week infectious period before temperature checks and NAT on nasal swabs could detect carriers.

              That two week “asymptomatic”* infectious period was the game changer. It meant that the testing we used to stop SARS wouldn’t stop this one. It also meant that progressive travel restrictions starting with just Wuhan was not the correct scientific decision. The virus had spread at the speed of 747, and it was two weeks ahead of us. We didn’t then know about the October/November detection in China, but we had the leaked orders from the Wuhan Naval Engineering academy from January 2 introducing new screening procedures, so any nation that persons from Wuhan could have reached in the two weeks prior to January 2 had to be considered a travel risk for Australia regardless of whether they had reported infections.

              *Not actually asymptomatic. Just lacking SARS style symptoms. NAT on samples from the gastrointestinal tract was what we should have been doing.

              40

      • #
        paul

        I don’t understand why everyone is comparing one country’s performance against another?

        Surely the issue should be how does this year’s epidemic excess deaths compare to the worst epidemics of history and, judged in that light, is it an acceptable excess? We are not in a world cup of corona virus where the winner is the one with the fewest deaths and damn the economic cost.

        I believe that compared to years such as 1970 in the UK they are not even a quarter the way to equal the death toll with a population 30% higher.

        Kawasaki illness, possibly linked to covid19? Or is it linked to vitamin D deficiency exacerbated by lockdown? People search for the answer they want.

        10

    • #
      RickWill

      Claiming that Stockholm will achieve herd immunity in June with 40% of people infected is the same as stating Australia achieved herd herd immunity with just 0.028% of the population being infected. It only holds up while the current quarantine practices exist.

      With the infection still present in the community, as soon as they relax current rules, the virus just goes rampant again.

      The situation in Australia is quite different because every new case will be traced and those infected quarantined. Australia right now is where Taiwan was about 2 months ago; country quarantined from infectious sources; fast effective testing regime and effective contact tracing process.

      Taiwan now 7 dead. Sweden now 3529 deaths.

      Sweden does not have any contact tracing, So as soon as the rules are relaxed the herd immunity threshold ramps up and a lot more people become infected.

      So maybe in a 6 weeks Stockholm reaches herd immunity. At 80 deaths per day, that is at least 2500 more before they get the herd immunity they seek. Stockholm has 1M people. What is then the additional cost in terms of lives, time and incomes to get herd immunity in the rest of the country.

      The common view outside Sweden is that business is very much as usual in Sweden. That is not the case. Business bankruptcies are probably as bad as most other places and on a steady rise:
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/1112296/bankruptcy-growth-after-the-coronavirus-outbreak-in-sweden-by-industry/

      Meanwhile the countries bordering Sweden are closing borders to Sweden.

      By late June, as Stockholm may approach herd immunity, Australians will be moving around the country not much different to last year. I can already see an increase in road traffic.

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    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      Thanks for the link, OriginalSteve.

      Switzerland are opening up a month early, saying they need to “learn to live with the virus”.

      Sounds very similar to what Sweden have done from the start.

      52

  • #
    Ken Davis

    Welcome to my world…https://ammes.org/tag/dubbo-study/

    They say they don’t know – I’ll give a back of the envelope number – %10 of those diagnosed are likely to develop an ME/CFS type syndrome. About half of those will recover slowly within 2 years and the remainder will likely suffer long-term impairment – albeit with some long, slow, partial recovery.

    Nothing new here.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    This report, which is well done by the ABC ( credit where its due…) flags one of the voncerns I had about supply chain disruption as a key problem in any pandemic or conflict.

    Its sobering reading. Worth taking the time to read.

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/australia-unprepared-for-security-threats-warns-review/12248332

    “The Defence review also reveals deep concerns among senior Defence officials and Australian industry leaders that the nation is unprepared for disruptions to imports of essential supplies, like the medical shortages of the coronavirus crisis.

    “The ABC revealed a fortnight ago that a report commissioned by the review found Australia’s critical infrastructure and essential services would cease to function within three months of a halt to global trade.

    “The report of the Defence mobilisation review reveals “concern about comprehension and awareness of supply chain vulnerabilities [was] apparent in almost every interview” with senior Defence officials consulted for the review.

    “”Given … our reliance on imported manufactured goods, the nation is exposed to major disruptions of global governance and supply that could significantly impact our society,” the report found.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      An inevitable consequence of being completely tied into the globally connected economy.
      The CCP Virus has maybe taught us the weaknesses this means for Australia
      And we will change the way w do things and become more locally, nationally focussed again.

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  • #
    R.B.

    It might be worse than we thought but the fall out from lockdowns will also be worse than many wish to consider.

    In New York, 17 of 100 000 under 44 have died. Nearly 1400 out of 100 000 over 75 have died from COVID19.

    The Great Depression only increased suicide rates by 4 per 100 000 in the US but the number of deaths world wide from poverty and lack of development were high (Not to mention the rise to power of Hitler). Life expectancy in the US didn’t start to drop until 1932. It actually climbed from 1929 to 1932 as people clung on and the gains made in the 20th C manifested it’s self as higher life expectancy, along with a less decadent lifestyle. But it dropped by 4 years from 1932 to 1936, as the economy was picking up.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Off topics get a red thumb from me.

      314

      • #
        R.B.

        No. The argument that its a nasty virus is pretty much set in stone. I don’t want to catch it and I have a father whose chance of surviving it are all but zero. If there was nothing else to consider, I would be all for no human to human contact at all for a few months.

        82

      • #
        Joe

        Bill, not only a red thumb it seems, but an explanatory, albeit off-topic comment of your own.

        ps you can give me a red thumb and comment for this comment as admittedly it is off-topic too.

        :)

        64

  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    I am a sufferer of widespread inflammatory conditions: arthritis, heart disease, psoriasis, muscle pain and fatigue. From time to time, I test positive for ‘remnants’ (antibodies?) of EBV.

    Most of these issues, plus the rather debilitating fatigue, date back to a bout of apparent ‘flu I suffered years ago, after a trip to the US, where I went hiking in the Grand Canyon area.

    Post-viral syndrome? Tick bite? Whatever it is, no doctor has so far been able to explain it. My current GP and one other specialist say it is fibromyalgia, but that is simply based on my symptoms because there is no definitive ‘test’ for it, so I gave up trying to figure it out last year and now just live with it.

    190

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I’m a fan of large continual doses of Vit C to help clean out the biological “dross” in peoples systems.

      Also raw garlic and ginger each day helps immune function.

      I suspect there is a lot of viral-related diseases that dont even have a name yet.

      140

      • #
        Steve of Cornubia

        Thanks. I take Vit C daily, mostly because I almost NEVER eat fruit. I do eat plenty of fresh veggies though.

        50

        • #

          Might be worth cycling the Vit C? Our bodies use oxidants for all kinds of things, including immune defense. So being in a constant state of supplemented Anti-ox may not be a good idea in the long run as it may override these normal protective oxidant mechanisms. Most long term constant use supplementation doesnt on show an improvement in lifespan.

          There may be reasons of course why you can’t cycle it. But if you can, it might be healthier.

          52

          • #
            Steve of Cornubia

            Thanks Jo. What does cycling mean? Do you mean day on, day off, or maybe week on, week off?

            41

    • #
      Ross

      To Steve of Cornubia (where is that by they way??). Yes the Fibromyalgia diagnosis is just a catch all for the medical profession to say “we dont know what’s wrong with you”. I had a similar episode of neck pain, fatigue, pain about 10 years ago. Got diagnosed with Fibromyalgia and then was referred to pain specialists etc. Totally waste of time. Eventually one pain specialist recommended anti- depressants. That was the final straw for me. I then sought alternative treatments. For me acupuncture, magnetic neck chain, new pillow probably finally fixed it. But probably the biggest healer was just time with a healthy lifestyle – good food, regular exercise, adequate sleep etc.

      150

      • #
        Steve of Cornubia

        Thanks. I have a very good and varied diet, 99% home-cooked with lots of fresh veg, lean meat and fish. I exercise most days, within the limitations of my dodgy blood pump and the arthritis. As for sleep well, not so good. I suffer sleep apnea, for which I use the devil’s favourite torture instrument – a CPAP machine. It keeps my apneas under control, but IMO, CPAP doesn’t support good, refreshing sleep. Many, many users report the same experience. It might be that this alone is the principal cause of my fatigue. The docs of course disagree!

        I too was prescribed antidepressants and actually tried several. Never again.

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    • #
      sophocles

      Have you thought of:

      1. having your blood level of vitamin D 3 (calcidiol) checked?

      If it’s 20ng/ml or less, then see 2: Vitamin D Deficiency and you may just have had a “definitive test” for fibromyalgia.

      (If it’s 50ng/ml, then it’s at a level considered “normal” and 38 – 40 is regarded as adequate but higher could be nicer. You may not have a shortage of vitamin D, however the list of symptoms strongly suggests severe and chronic deficiency of Vitamin D. )

      2. supplementing with high levels of Vitamin D 3 (consult your doctor first) could help.

      See https vitamindwiki.com/tiki-index.php?page_id=383_

      Note: The figures I have given fit a caucasian (white) inheritance and could be incorrect for other racial inheritances. Therefore consult with your doctor at all times. even if you have to force-feed him/her the vitamin D literature — almost every one of your quoted symptoms fit extreme deficiency of vitamin D.

      80

      • #
        Steve of Cornubia

        Thanks. Yes, I have had all the blood tests and no deficiency of any kind has ever shown up. Nevertheless, I have taken Vit D supplements on and off (and currently do so because of the possible benefits re Covid, thanks to Jo). I have never felt any tangible benefit, unfortunately. Also, living in Oztralia since ’99, I get plenty of sun, so a vit D deficiency is unlikely.

        I am of white English stock and my childhood was spent in poor, 1960s Liverpool. Back then, for that demographic, diet and parental care was shocking by today’s standards which, along with having two chain-smoking parents, might go some way to explaining my relatively poor health now I’m 63!

        40

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Steve, the ability of your body to convert Cholesterol into DE declines with age.
          If you are over 50 or so then taking lots of vitamin D3 is good idea. It also helps prevent osteoporosis when taken with K2.

          44

          • #
            Steve of Cornubia

            Thanks. Don’t talk to ME about cholesterol!! ;-)

            Like most victims of heart disease, I take a statin, which itself can cause muscle pain. This is the quandary I find myself in – with a suite of problems which conspire to make treatment impossible. What mitigates one, exacerbates another.

            When in Italy last year, I caught another dose of ‘flu’ (so did Mrs Wife). Interestingly, we caught it from a Chinese landlady, our AirBnB host in Naples. She said she had just got back from visiting relatives overseas. Wuhan perhaps? I mention this in the context of the aforementioned ‘medical conspiracy’, because one of the things I had to take was an antihistamine cough suppressant. Within a day or so I was almost headed for A&E because my water works seized up. Turned out antihistamines are to be avoided if you have an enlarged prostate (yup, I have that too).

            Joy!

            50

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Steve statins are a proven medical scare scam.Our bodies make Cholersterol because we need it for many many things in the body. Using sunlight to power the transformation of Cholesterol into Vitamin D3 is just one example. Another is that our brains need cholesterol as an essential component. I gave the stains away in 2017.
              Check out Dr Malcom Kendrick.

              44

            • #
              greggg

              Statin drugs deplete coq10, which depletes ATP which increases fatigue and muscle pain and more. If you’re taking a statin you NEED to take coq10.

              10

        • #
          sophocles

          Steve:

          Yes, I have had all the blood tests

          So, what is your vitamin D blood level?

          That doesn’t mean you’ve had a vitamin D test. The fact that around 80% of a western population is vitamin D deficient and don’t even know it and about that many are vitamin D ignorant, shows that it is not routinely tested for. It should be.

          If you can’t answer my question, it proves my case.
          Next time you see your doctor don’t ask for one, demand it and pay for it if you have to
          You ensure you get at least 2 per year — one at the end of summer and one in the Sickness Season

          If we managed our vitamin D levels properly, we wouldn’t have an annual Sickness Season. I invite you to think about that.

          30

          • #
            Steve of Cornubia

            I have been tested twice for D deficiency, though not recently. I can’t recall the numbers, only that they were “in the normal range”. Over the years, I have been tested for just about everything, from vit, mineral and hormone deficiency, to various antibodies and markers for inflammation. I have ‘some’ indicators for inflammation, but apparently not enough to explain the pain.

            I nevertheless say that I have an inflammatory issue because most of the problems I have are often blamed on ‘inflammation’, not because I have a definitive diagnosis.

            But, lest I come across as a bleating victim, let me say that my probs pale against those that properly sick people endure. Though my pain is more or less constant, and rather like toothache in twelve places, it’s manageable and i can resist the temptation of painkillers most days. For me, the worst aspect of chronic pain is the effect it has on my mood – from time to time I just feel very sorry for myself. The best treatment for that has not been drugs but retirement and the consequent reduction in stress.

            50

            • #
              sophocles

              No Steve, you’re not coming across as a “bleating victim” at all.

              There has been quite a lot of change in the vitamin D area over the last 10 – 12 years and even over the last 3 – 4 years. Even national health departments have modified their stances significantly (although some people will say their heads are still well buried in the sand). Because of that you might look at that specific test again.

              If you do choose to, then look for readings of 100nmol/L (or 40ng/ml) or better. If less than that, you are deficient.

              However, if you are convinced it won’t work, or don’t want to do it, I will respect that. Thanks for listening.

              00

  • #
    dinn, rob

    this is easy enough to understand but in itself is not a complete treatment.
    4 sci papers showing sodium bicarbonate’s efficacy in fighting various pathogens including viruses
    https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/05/4-sci-papers-showing-sodium.html

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  • #
    Kim

    I find echinacea works very well – if not over done. It raises the immune system level and that greatly helps in dealing with infections.

    50

  • #
    Ross

    Most people I know who have had bad bouts of the “common” flu over the years have these same symptoms. They can linger for weeks or months. I’ve had the same symptoms myself. Perhaps its due to low Vitamin D or Zinc?? So, nothing new I would have thought.

    70

    • #
      sophocles

      Ross:

      Perhaps its due to low Vitamin D

      You have most probably hit the nail on it’s head. The docs know what it is but don’t know how to treat it.

      First: have your vitamin D level measured. It’s always best to start from a known base and NOW is always a good time.
      50 ng/ml + = normal/ideal
      <30 ng/ml = low/insufficient
      <20 ng/ml = deficient
      <10 ng/ml = seriously deficient.

      Second: if you turn out to be low (or worse) in the vitamin D department, you can either supplement or sunbathe. If you choose to sunbathe then don't use a sunscreen. If you're caucasian by descent, then 15 – 20 minutes is enough at solar noon and keep a watch on your skin. A sun burn is both painful and sets you backwards until healed. If you're sunbathing in July-August, then up to 30 minutes may be good.

      I do both. Year around. The supplementing is for June and the first two to three weeks of July when the sun is way up North. (I'm a denizen of the Southern Hemisphere.) Sunbathing is probably more comfortable: the body is quick to regulate the manufacture of vitamin D and you get the added benefit of nitrogen oxides forming in the epidermis, which are good for the cardiac system. Two beneficial hits from one exposure has got to be good. I'm at latitude -36.0 so modify your times for your Latitude.
      A good reference is your area's UVI.

      If/when you supplement, then add Vitamin K2. Both Vitamin D and Vitamin K2 are concerned with the calcium metabolism and make a perfect pair: Vit-D gets the calcium out of your gut easily and fast but isn't fussy where it puts it whereas K2 is very fussy. Daily dose for K2 is 120 mcg/day (men) and 90mcg/day for women. (All vit K2 in NZ is for the ladies so I make a fuss every time. The fuss hasn't worked yet.)

      40

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    It’s a shame that Spiked has been so badly blown off course
    In i’s political response to the virus.
    34,000 dead in the UK in 2 months
    And Spiked puts out this hogwash.
    I’ve unsubscribed and stopped helping it financially as well.

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  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Another mystery. Some children exhibiting symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease. Many of these children are testing positive to CV19.

    https://www.fatherly.com/health-science/kawasaki-disease-covid-19/

    40

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Do any other common illnesses, like pneumonia, have similar, long drawn out post crisis recovery periods?

    30

  • #
    Clinton

    Maybe they need to drink a glass of cement and harden up… bloody sooks.

    I have had glandular fever, slept 16-20 hours a day for 6 months, and still managed to continue a bachelors degree at uni at the time.
    I have been run over by cars twice, electrocuted, broken bones and been knocked out. All of which hurt for some time but didn’t leave me in a heap sobbing ‘woe is me’
    The worst infection I had was pneumonia 6 years ago, took a month after diagnosis to be able to jog 5km and 3 months to get back my pre-illness level of fitness. 1 week after diagnosis and commencing antibiotics I was back at work 10 hours a day 5 days a week.

    Attitude and perception play a huge role. If you want to play the sick role, you will and nothing will be right. If you want to get up and moving despite the pain/functional loss, you will.

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      “I have had glandular fever, slept 16-20 hours a day for 6 months, and still managed to continue a bachelors degree at uni at the time.
      I have been run over by cars twice, electrocuted, broken bones and been knocked out. All of which hurt for some time but didn’t leave me in a heap sobbing ‘woe is me’”

      I think you will find that most people are similarly stoic. You’re not ‘special’. I too have had poor health for many years, including a major heart attack when my ticker was already compromised by a leaky valve, and I kept working in a stupidly-stressful career. It’s what most of us do.

      90

    • #

      well done Clinton. You are our hero but have made a pretty vapid contribution.

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    • #
      Joe

      Electrocution! We dreamt of electrocution. We had to get up two hours before we went to sleep, lick the lake clean, eat cold gravel for breakfast … and you tell the young generation of today and they wouldn’t believe you!

      51

    • #
      greggg

      You won’t get up and moving despite the pain/functional loss if you are unable to do so. For people with M.E. pushing oneself too hard results in post exertional malaise.
      https://me-pedia.org/wiki/Post-exertional_malaise
      ‘While in most diseases patients experience symptom relief after exercise, the opposite is true for ME/CFS patients for whom even minimal exertion can cause a symptom flare-up.’
      ‘Exertion induces abnormalities in cognitive functioning,immune activation,gene expression and endogenous pain inhibition in ME/CFS patients’
      ‘PEM can be demonstrated by a 2-day cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) procedure. On the second day CPET, ME/CFS patients display a significant drop in VO2 max and maximal workload’

      10

  • #
    Clinton

    Maybe they need to drink a glass of cement and harden up… bloody sooks.

    I have had glandular fever, slept 16-20 hours a day for 6 months, and still managed to continue a bachelors degree at uni at the time.
    I have been run over by cars twice, electrocuted, broken bones and been knocked out. All of which hurt for some time but didn’t leave me in a heap sobbing ‘woe is me’
    The worst infection I had was pneumonia 6 years ago, took a month after diagnosis to be able to jog 5km and 3 months to get back my pre-illness level of fitness. 1 week after diagnosis and commencing antibiotics I was back at work 10 hours a day 5 days a week.

    Attitude and perception play a huge role. If you want to play the sick role, you will and nothing will be right. If you want to get up and moving despite the pain/functional loss, you will.

    23

    • #
      el gordo

      Mind over matter may have some value, but I prefer the precautionary principle. Put your mind to work on avoidance practice.

      22

    • #
      sophocles

      I have been run over by cars twice,

      Did that glass of cement actually work, then? :-D

      30

  • #
    Boris

    Here’s another virologist/epidemiologist that thinks it’s all been handled wrongly and disagrees with the official version etc.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=624&v=knqCWSmPSSA&feature=emb_logo

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    • #
      Boris

      she makes some extremely cogent and important observations that seem to have been forgotten by the media & governments.

      72

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Thanks Boris.

        42

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        From the link Boris kindly provided:

        Professor Dolores Cahill is a world leading scientist and academic. She is renowned for her work in Bio-Medicine. Dolores has been a member of the Advisory Science Council to the Irish government and a member of the International Science Advisory Board. expert in high-throughput proteomics technology development and automation, high content protein arrays and their biomedical applications, including biomarker discovery. Her team has achieved key breakthroughs in developing high-density protein and antibody array technologies and demonstrated their applications in biological and medical research. Prof. Cahill pioneered this research area at the Max-Planck-Institute of Molecular Genetics in Berlin, Germany, and holds several international patents. She has received prizes for her research, including the prestigious BMBF ‘BioFuture’ Award from the German Minister of Science. She was awarded the Federation of European Biochemical Societies (FEBS) 2009 Award for her research & its significance.

        71

    • #
      dinn, rob

      but only the industry standard counts, every time, esp. if some cheese says so

      20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Posted 2 days ago Wonderful hindsight.
      In January we need foresight. Where the hell was she then ?

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    • #
      RickWill

      That is appalling rubbish. Just a joke at 17 minutes in she states the US cleared the virus mid March. Laughable!

      I am glad she is a far away from making decisions to do with people’s lives.

      This is another one on the business of vaccines touting for business.

      56

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Rick, perhaps you could extend your wide ranging sense of humor to the behavior of Neil Ferguson.

        42

        • #
          RickWill

          You would need to provide reference for the Neil Ferguson behaviour you refer for me to comment?

          33

  • #
    WXcycles

    Countries with more than 500 active cases, and more than 2.5% daily spreading and over 50 new cases.

    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
    27,246 … USA … 1,052,654 … 2.6 … 5.96
    13,761 … Brazil … 109,446 … 12.6 … 6.90 (new cases rose ~2,250 over yesterday)
    9,974 … Russia … 196,410 … 5.1 … 0.91
    4,298 … Peru … 53,186 … 8.1 … 2.81 (sunny + warm = 8.1% daily growth)
    3,942 … India … 51,379 … 7.7 … 3.23 (82,000 total cases so far)
    2,659 … Chile … 21,017 … 12.7 … 0.99
    2,039 … Saudi Arabia … 27,535 … 7.4 … 0.60 (sunny + very hot = 7.4% daily growth)
    1,862 … Mexico … 8,976 … 20.7 … 10.50 (sunny + hot = 20.7% daily growth)
    1,808 … Iran … 17,140 … 10.5 … 5.98
    1733 … Qatar … 24,902 … 7.0 … 0.05 (sunny + very hot = 7.0% daily growth)
    1,635 … Turkey … 36,712 … 4.5 … 2.77
    1,551 … Spain … 58,845 … 2.6 … 10.02
    1,123 … Canada … 31,838 … 3.5 … 7.45
    1,041 … Bangladesh … 15,219 … 6.8 … 1.50
    947 … Kuwait … 8,436 … 11.2 … 0.73 (sunny + very hot = 11.3% daily growth)
    947 … Belarus … 18,453 … 5.1 … 0.56
    877 … Germany … 16,747 … 5.2 … 4.53
    752 … Singapore … 20,104 … 3.7 … 0.08
    698 … UAE … 13,946 … 5.0 … 0.99
    680 … Colombia … 9,727 … 7.0 … 3.86
    673 … Sweden … 20,082 … 3.4 … 12.35
    665 … South Africa … 6,825 … 9.7 … 1.87
    568 … Indonesia … 11,445 … 5.0 … 6.52
    426 … Ireland … 2,851 … 14.9 … 6.32
    422 … Ukraine … 12,248 … 3.4 … 2.71
    413 … Afghanistan … 4,812 … 8.6 … 2.41
    411 … Poland … 10,036 … 4.1 … 5.01
    398 … Egypt … 7,632 … 5.2 … 5.27
    382 … Bahrain … 3,835 … 10.0 … 0.16
    322 … Oman … 3,020 … 10.7 … 0.41
    258 … Philippines … 8,749 … 2.9 … 6.65
    255 … Argentina … 4,396 … 5.8 … 4.95
    245 … Romania … 6,141 … 4.0 … 6.48
    208 … Zambia … 523 … 39.8 … 1.07 (Someone did some sampling and found virus everywhere)
    191 … Nigeria … 3,815 … 5.0 … 3.24
    189 … Algeria … 2,755 … 6.9 … 8.21
    184 … Bolivia … 2,667 … 6.9 … 4.51
    175 … Honduras … 1,895 … 9.2 … 5.45
    161 … Panama … 2,621 … 6.1 … 2.86
    154 … Cameroon … 1,262 … 12.2 … 4.71
    154 … Kazakhstan … 3,008 … 5.1 … 0.57
    147 … Moldova … 3,131 … 4.7 … 3.49
    143 … Guatemala … 1,192 … 12.0 … 2.16
    142 … Armenia … 2,239 … 6.3 … 1.27
    122 … Ghana … 4,832 … 2.5 … 0.43
    121 … Azerbaijan … 1,011 … 12.0 … 1.22
    111 … Iraq … 1,000 … 11.1 … 3.66
    106 … Tajikistan … 878 … 12.1 … 3.20
    100 … Gabon … 912 … 11.0 … 0.91
    99 … Guinea … 1,563 … 6.3 … 0.61
    95 … Morocco … 3,107 … 3.1 … 2.88
    91 … Finland … 1,558 … 5.8 … 4.67
    84 … Senegal … 1,324 … 6.3 … 1.05
    82 … Czechia … 2,817 … 2.9 … 3.51
    77 … Guinea-Bissau … 884 … 8.7 … 0.33
    75 … El Salvador … 684 … 11.0 … 2.07
    73 … DRC … 1,035 … 7.1 … 4.03
    67 … Mayotte … 567 … 11.8 … 1.32
    65 … Somalia … 1,096 … 5.9 … 4.13
    61 … Austria … 1,027 … 5.9 … 3.90
    61 … Equatorial Guinea … 563 … 10.8 … 1.20
    59 … Ivory Coast … 1,017 … 5.8 … 1.22
    50 … Switzerland … 1,491 … 3.4 … 6.15

    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died

    Many more African countries are showing up in the lists. In the African continent as a whole the disease is reportedly growing at 6.6%. Though when results like Zambia occur it’s easy to see the disease may be spreading much faster than reported. The first we’re likely to know about it is when mass graves appear. That could still be several weeks away.

    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
    9 … Australia … 590 … 1.5 … 1.40

    63

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      So curious that an advanced educated small country like Sweden is doing so much worse that South Africa, the Philippines, Argentina and Switzerland.

      I wonder what went wrong for the trusting Swedish people ?

      58

  • #
    MudCrab

    New York Times AND the Guardian.

    Has this what we have come to? Secondary sources from known hard left Fake News outlets?

    Disappointing.

    62

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yes Muddy ! Everything published in
      the New York Times,
      The Guardian,
      The ABC,
      The BBC,
      the Age,
      The Australian,
      The Washington Tomes.
      Le Paris Monde,
      Die Welt,
      The Buenos Aires Herald,
      The Manila Enquirer,
      The Manila Star,
      etc.
      Is fake leftwing propaganda news. They NEVER publish anything which is accurate or honest.
      Only Twitter and Facebook publish the truth !
      Ummmm ?

      37

      • #
        MP

        Bill could you split this list into two for me please.

        1/ The ones that tell the truth.
        2/ The ones that lie.

        Just so I know next time you link to one of them.

        Cheers

        32

        • #
          TdeF

          What part of “fake leftwing propaganda ” indicates some are telling the truth?

          34

          • #
            MP

            Due to the below, I took it as Bill being cynical. In regards to the last line well it speaks for its self.

            “Is fake leftwing propaganda news. They NEVER publish anything which is accurate or honest.
            Only Twitter and Facebook publish the truth !”

            41

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    It’s reasonable to start thinking about the economy again, with the virus present.
    Prediction is very hard, but by now it is pretty clear the experts don’t have a clue.
    Therefore there is no reason I should either.
    But I, Like many others, having no pension or government income, have o make a best guess and tend to restructuring things to try
    to take advantage of what might happen.

    I think there is likely to be a return to the kind of structure we had in the last recession, a financial crisis, with liquidity
    issues causing the ‘shutdowns’. There will be great misery at the bottom rungs of the ladder. It will take a bit of time to build up
    to where we can tap into the marginally employable again. However, the middle class, and investors may not have it so bad.

    I think customer timidity, ie fear of flying, will be relatively short-lived- as there will be immense effort expended to overcome
    consumer reticence.

    I see three drivers short term:

    China did this.
    Pent up animal spirits.
    Operational changes.

    There will be investment in many countries to bring back supply chains from China; other countries will prosper as they become
    targets for manufacturing leaving China but not returning to a home country. There will be various pressures to buy domestic goods instead of Chinese.
    There may be, to some degree, the motivating force of a common enemy.

    Early observation as business open here in the US show a lot of demand; barbers and stylists reporting twelve hour days.
    In some areas real estate inquiries are up. With many folks stressed financially, its hard to see a consumer tsnami, but there are enough
    folks with enough money and enough pent up demand to allow a core set of businesses to prosper setting the stage for a better recovery next
    year as trade and texture kick in. I also think there will be a lot of life style change consumption, geographical moves, job changes,
    housing changes… not growth exactly but more like the recovery after a bad storm. But it put money in pockets and the motion usually becomes growth,
    based on watching lots of different hurricane recoveries.

    And a lot of new stuff will go on. Almost every business interior will need modification, and and a lot of leaseholds may not be suitable for business
    as it well have to be conducted. It’s probably already too late to invest in companies making sanitation equipment; everybody will need the stuff and
    the service. A lot of opportunity will be created as we digest the work from home experience into the mainstream. The Education business is likely to get an overhaul
    and we may do some serious reconfiguring of health care, especially aged care. Also, we cam hope for serious deregulation
    and reduction of pouring capital into silly projects that aren’t cost effective. Cheaper energy would sure help a recovery.

    Its fair to remind all that signifcant parts of our economies never did quit working. And it wasn’t a war; our physical plant is intact.
    My guess is we’ll see solid momentum before the end of this year, and real growth by the end of next.

    There may be a cohort that doesn’t return to the work force. That’s not good. They’ll be wards of the various states, with various qualities of life depending
    on each state’s resources. The damn virus may have killed millions of people’s dreams although I’d like to think we can bring everyone back. As I said, thanks China…
    just gift of communism.

    But for the reasons above I think there is good reason for economic optimism for the economy for most of us.
    ANd optimism, like fear, is an emotion that can feed upon itself in a crowd.

    81

  • #
    Dipole

    These persistent recurring CV symptoms remind me of Epstein-Barr virus.

    “The symptoms and signs of an EBV (Mononucleosis) infection may include malaise, fever, muscle aches, headaches, sore throat, lymph node swelling, liver swelling, rash, and spleen swelling.”

    And it comes back, again and again, not in the original severity, but annoying to those who suffer.

    20

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The BBC have published a timeline & analysis of the way that the Corona virus invaded America. It is excellent at refreshing our memories of what happened at each stage and especially the failure of the USA president to act in time. . Clearly Trump believes in miracles – after all he keeps on referring to them in his press conferences. But the virus does not believe in miracles. It just keeps on doing it’s thing.

    (Viewer advice : Believers in conspiracies & the ‘Plandemic’ should avoid watching this video. It may completely unhinge our ideology. )

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52657815

    26

    • #
      sophocles

      Oh? Does it actually have a lot of facts in it? You know: those strange things the Beeb just loves to do without … along with truths …

      60

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Lots, lots lots of facts Sophocles…
        Just waiting for you to ponder on..
        :-)

        And I once again give thanks that I live in Oz…

        24

        • #
          sophocles

          I once again give thanks that I live in Oz

          … all that luverly sunshine :-D

          Moral of the story, if it has a moral, is don’t make the CO cross
          (CO = Comb Over).

          11

    • #
      MP

      From Wiki

      A conspiracy, also known as a plot, is a secret plan or agreement between persons (called conspirers or conspirators) for an unlawful or harmful purpose, such as murder or treason, especially with political motivation,[1] while keeping their agreement secret from the public or from other people affected by it. In a political sense, conspiracy refers to a group of people united in the goal of usurping, altering or overthrowing an established political power.

      You got to throw Theory at the end of it to make it true.

      Not from Wiki.
      A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.
      The branch of a science or art consisting of its explanatory statements, accepted principles, and methods of analysis, as opposed to practice.
      Don’t think it means what you think it means.

      BBC, solid source of information. Where do they stand on the AGW issue?

      12

      • #
        sophocles

        Where do they stand on the AGW issue?

        Rock Solid
        It’s an Article of Faith
        The Earth is Warming
        It’s Mankind’s Fault
        The Climate Crisis is a Fact
        Sunbeams and Fans are the saviors of all Mankind
        Coal and Oil are an existential threat especially to Polar Bears
        Fat Polar Bears are endangered real soon now.
        Polar Ice is reducing real fast as it has been for the last 40 years
        East Antarctica is losing ice real fast — it’s only a matter of a years some years a few years before sea level rise drowns New York. And London. And the rest of the world.
        … I could go on but I think you might get the idea.
        Oh: and
        There’s 12 years to go.

        41

        • #
          MP

          I think its 10 years now did they not call it in 2018, or does that progress with the end of the arctic ice.

          32

          • #
            sophocles

            I thought as you do until AOC used 12 years towards the end of last year (2019) which was good enough for me. But I think you’re still using normal (as in `sane and correct’) arithmetic and that might be a mistake with AOC involved. I didn’t see nor notice a tie up with the Arctic Ice so you might have something there.

            The Arctic Ice is a special case; the Antarctic ice is also a special case. They’re always “melting away” at the end of their respective summers. Each gain in ice logged over their `ice-gain’ seasons is studiously ignored as are the erupting volcanoes under the Antarctic Ice Sheet and melting glaciers.

            21

            • #
              MP

              I always thought they where kicking everything at the 2030. Everything about AOC is a mistake.

              Shhh don’t mention the volcanoes.

              21

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          O T Soph !
          Red thumb award !

          06

  • #
    ren

    The problem with Covid-19 is that it is quickly found in the alveoli. With influenza, bronchitis and ultimately secondary bacterial pneumonia generally occur. Here the virus immediately attacks the lung cells.

    60

    • #
      Konrad

      Actually it seems to first attack the cells in the small intestine. But this doesn’t seem to cause dramatic symptoms. The small intestine resists damage by shedding the damaged cells into the waste stream, something the lungs cannot do.

      20

  • #
    Aaron Christiansen

    WXCycle: you have posted an image of your hot vs cold country data, insisting that hot
    countries are more infectious than cold.

    I posted counter arguments to that (heat + humidity kills viruses, including COVID-19)
    but you did not respond. I found your result perplexing, assuming it is correct and
    the studies of heat + humidity killing viruses is correct, and flu season is the cold season.

    As I thought on this paradox, I remembered that new cases follow a normal curve, and you
    had fixed the start date of your analysis at 29/3/2020. This means your analysis is not
    comparing each country at the same point in its viral infection life cycle.

    The clearest example is Italy, where the delta was a diminishing 4% to <3%, but they were the
    earliest and worst hit for weeks.

    I grabbed a copy of your image, grabbed some data and threw it into a spreadsheet.

    Instead of fixing the start of analysis at 29/3, I grabbed the date when the countries in
    your lists hit 500 cases, added 14 days, grabbed the infected count at that date,
    then did the % calculations.

    My reasoning is that this compares each country at the same time in their viral infection
    life cycle.

    I could be wrong, but this to me provides an apples to apples comparison.

    My results suggest cold countries are twice a infectious as hot countries, compared to your
    hot countries are 25% more infectious than cold countries.

    It’s been a while since I did excel, and used index/match for the first time to derive my
    calculation values, so I could have made grievous errors, however the result aligns with
    what I would expect.

    Threshold @ 500 cases: 2.39 times as infectious: https://ibb.co/Nm0GxZ8
    Threshold @ 1 case: 3.14 times as infectious: https://ibb.co/02th37C

    You’ve put a lot of work into your spreadsheet, and I would be interested in your
    thoughts on my counter analysis.

    42

  • #
    ren

    Sorry to repeat myself, but I believe that the role of the ACE2 enzyme in the body is underestimated. The virus primarily neutralizes the action of this enzyme in the lungs and other epithelial cells. This causes further complications due to the effect of angiotensin 2.
    These include narrowing of blood vessels, blood clots in blood vessels, a cytokine storm.

    30

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Hi ren! :)

      Your reasoning/indications allows my own understanding/research to get a better foothold, and so i am still looking at ACE2 from the perspective that its presence indicates cell damage, especially for epithelial cells. There is very little ACE2 expression in healthy cells i only believe so far.

      In my non expert student opinion (IMNESO) it looks like the expression of ACE2 is indicative of cell repair processes. For example, when an ACE2 disappears from the surface of the cell much like a scab on a wound, it indicates the job is done and the cell is repaired and healthy again. In this method of explanation, the ACE2 receptor is analogous to a scab that forms on the skin after a scratch on the skin. When the skin is repaired, the scab comes off revealing a healthy skin again. If the ACE2 receptor does not detach, it can result in cellular over-repair and cause fibrosis, a toughening of the cell wall is another aspect concerning ACE2 receptors.

      From: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.013672v1.full

      “Cigarette smoke triggers the expansion of a subpopulation of respiratory epithelial cells that express the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2″
      Joan C. Smith, Jason M. Sheltzer
      doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.013672


      Abstract

      The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 600,000 people and has overwhelmed hospital systems around the world. However, the factors mediating fatal SARS-CoV-2 infections are poorly understood. Here, we show that cigarette smoke causes a dose-dependent upregulation of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2), the SARS-CoV-2 receptor, in rodent and human lungs. Using single-cell sequencing data, we demonstrate that ACE2 is expressed in a subset of epithelial cells that line the respiratory tract, including goblet cells, club cells, and alveolar type 2 cells. Chronic smoke exposure triggers a protective expansion of mucus-secreting goblet cells and a concomitant increase in ACE2 expression. In contrast, quitting smoking causes a decrease in lung ACE2 levels. Taken together, these results may partially explain why smokers are particularly likely to develop severe SARS-CoV-2 infections, and they suggest that quitting smoking could lessen coronavirus susceptibility.

      31

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        My current study material in the link above. Forgot to mention why i included it. Oops :)

        And cheers!

        11

        • #
          ren

          Hi Environment Skeptic!
          We know that excessive ACE2 activity promotes infection. More important, however, what happens next, does ACE2 activity disappear after a virus attack? In my opinion, yes, which causes angiotensin 2 to increase. Logically, angiotensin 2 should increase during the maximum amount of virus in the lungs. What do you think?

          10

        • #
          ren

          Note that health deterioration often occurs around the 10th day of illness and can be sudden. I think the reason for this is the increase in angiotensin 2 (inactivation of ACE 2 in the lungs). During this time, regression of the Cov 2 virus in the lungs is also observed. This indicates that the antibodies are working. I believe that this is because of an increase in angitensin 2, which narrows the blood vessels. This is very important because vasoconstriction is the cause of inflammation in the body.

          30

        • #
          ren

          One should always remember that the ACE 2 enzyme is an angiotensin 2 blocker, and the virus attach to this molecule, which makes it inactive.

          Abstract
          That the renin–angiotensin system (RAS) is involved in regulation of blood pressure, vasoconstriction, sodium intake and potassium excretion is well established. Studies in the last few years have however documented new roles for this molecule as a pro-inflammatory molecule and more recently as a possible pro-fibrotic agent that contributes to progressive deterioration of organ function in disease. Binding of Ang II to its receptors (in particular AT1) mediates intracellular free radical generation that contributes to tissue damage by promoting mitochondrial dysfunction. Blocking Ang II signalling protects against neurodegenerative processes and promotes longevity in rodents. Altogether these findings open the unanticipated perspective for exploring Ang II signalling in therapeutic interventions in inflammatory diseases and aging-related tissue injury. This review extends from the discovery of Ang II and its implications in renal and cardiovascular physiology to cover the roles of the system in inflammation, tissue injury, autoimmunity, oxidative stress and aging.
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3377325/

          20

          • #
            ren

            Conclusion
            Inflammation has recently emerged as an important mechanism in progression of Ang II-dependent hypertension. In the process, inflammatory factors produced by the immune system and RAS intimately interplay and synergistically promote elevation of blood pressure and the development of RAS-associated tissue injury. Immune activation by elevated Ang II and roles of the activated immune system in hypertension have been relatively well described. Regulation of RAS components by elevated pro-inflammatory factors has been recently highlighted as inflammation-induced RAS activation provides a link between activated immune components and blood pressure elevation. Findings gleaned from these studies indicate that inflammatory factors regulate each RAS component through cytokine- and/or tissue-specific manners, which may ultimately induce further production of systemic or local Ang II in Ang II-dependent hypertension. Further studies to elucidate more detailed mechanisms underlying RAS regulation by inflammation and to disclose pathophysiological significance of the inflammation-RAS axis will contribute to the development of novel strategies to prevent and treat hypertension and RAS-associated tissue injury.
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6203444/

            20

          • #
            ren

            The child died after a “neurological injury related to a cardiac arrest”, said Fabrice Michel, head of the paediatric intensive care unit at La Timone hospital in the Mediterranean port city of Marseille.

            The boy, who tested positive for coronavirus, received treatment at the hospital for seven days and died on Saturday, the doctor told AFP.

            In the last three weeks, several countries have reported cases of children affected by an inflammatory disease with symptoms similar to those of a rare condition, Kawasaki’s disease. Scientists believe it is linked to Covid-19.
            https://www.france24.com/en/20200515-france-records-first-child-fatality-from-rare-disease-linked-to-covid-19

            30

    • #
      sophocles

      I think you two had better not take those thinking caps off anytime soon:

      Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 strains
      https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200422/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-strains.aspx

      Enjoy.

      11

      • #
        sophocles

        I’m picking it’s going to be a long wait for an effective vaccine, like never for a single vaccine which kills all the variants of the Sars-CoV-2. It could be a case of “Which variation is going to hit this year?

        31

        • #
          Aaron Christiansen

          It sounds like you do not believe the virus has been eradicated?

          What has “crushing the curve” done if we’re going to get hit with it every year and the vaccine will be as effective as seasonal flu vaccine?

          Do you think the virus will evolve to a weaker variant?

          41

  • #
    UK-Weather Lass

    There many be an underlying mediocrity of purpose that has assisted in ramping up an apparent fear of Covid-19, and all the related side effects which every illness has, even sometimes a common cold, if we seek to find and understand it. A further example of how these mediocre foundations have made the whole more fragile is the revelation that the UK’s stockpile of health care PPE was managed by a company in chaos even at the time it was offered the contract to handle all this by the UK Government. Is this another example of how easily outsourcing can become ‘out of sight, out of mind and no longer my responsibility’?

    I’d prefer a focus upon whether or not global health care, including public health authority, is actually better or fitter for purpose now than it was even two decades ago. We may even venture to look at the academics producing the people who make decisions and obtain leading roles in these disciplines. Are we actually getting better or worse and what does the evidence say? Has Covid-19 helped to expose a complacency that could have cost us much, much more dearly?

    41

  • #
    WXcycles

    Texas’s two week old economic re-opening almost immediately ramped up both the new cases and the new deaths, to new highs.

    Texas reported 58 coronavirus deaths today, a record

    AUSTIN — Texas reported its highest number of deaths in one day since the coronavirus pandemic began. New official state data released on Thursday showed Texas is now reporting 1,216 deaths — an increase of 58 from yesterday’s tally. Previously, Texas had reported as many as 50 deaths once before, on April 30.

    The state also reported its highest one day jump in positive test. Texas has had 43,851 positive cases reported — a jump of 1,448 cases. That state’s previous high was on April 10 when it reported 1,441 positive cases.

    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/Texas-reported-58-coronavirus-deaths-today-a-15270877.php

    The bogeyman awaits.

    No matter the political or business narratives at some point the general public will decide not to be martyrs to what does not work.

    42

  • #
    UK-Weather Lass

    Interesting paper predicting that there are as many as 237 community cases in England for every case officially reported. It cites the wide variations in clusters of the disease. The work was headed by Dr Adrian Heald, Salford Royal Hospital, and conducted by members of the University of Manchester and others. It concludes that 29% of the population may have already had the disease and therefore have increased immunity. It has been peer reviewed.

    It is hoped the new antigen tests (with very high reliability) will back these findings once they are in comprehensive use.

    As a further footnote about recovery ‘ills’ I’d anticipate that being released back into the normally functioning lifestyle you briefly left while ill plays a manage part in your recovery and returning to the misery of social distancing and lock down may have an expected reverse psychological effects, especially if the underlying symptoms were present before contracting Covid-19. This is all about individuals and their in built ability to recover and potentially unrelated to Covid-19 other than association. But, of course, I am not an expert and therefore very likely to be wrong.

    60

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Major

      00

    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      “returning to the misery of social distancing and lock down may have an expected reverse psychological effects”

      psychologial leading to physiological.

      Stress can have a major impact on recovery and health in general.

      22

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Living under the threat of a plague and death is also quite stressful.
        Most folk prefer to avoid them and are willing to put up with temporary restrictions in order to do so.
        Of course you clearly are an exception to that. You prefer to live with the ‘Covidian Sword’ hanging over your head all the time.

        04

  • #
    Kevin a

    Great Video
    PLANDEMIC DOCUMENTARY – THE HIDDEN AGENDA BEHIND COVID19 PART 2 – DR JUDY MIKOVITS
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/5rWXGt3Gtasc/

    21

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Mor USA conspiracy BS.
      I’m amazed t the capacity of the USA to generate such a wealth of utter dross.
      Not so amazing is that some experts are driven to get attention and fame and money, by boosting such nonsense. It seems to be in the USA medical research profession DNA.

      03

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Very interesting research news
    “Medical researchers led by Cardiff University-UK and including scientists and doctors from University of Colorado-US, University Of Barcelona-Spain, University Of Ottawa-Canada and Babraham Institute-Cambridge have discovered that readily available dental mouthwashes have the potential to destroy the lipid envelope of coronaviruses thus combating virus replication in the mouth and throat.”

    Ummm so gargling with mouth wash helps [prevent infection…

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-research-medical-scientists-led-by-cardiff-university-urge-for-further-research-of-oral-rinses-to-help-combat-covid-19

    14

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo did you check out this article on Thailand Medical news when researching for this post ?

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-alerts-recovered-patients-could-suffer-chronic-health-effects-for-the-rest-of-their-lives

    “To date more than 1.6 million individuals around the world have been deemed ‘recovered’ from the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection. However conquering the initial sickness may be just the first of many battles for those who have survived.
    So far many recovered individuals report breathlessness, fatigue and body pain months after first becoming infected.”

    13

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Dr Campbel is still making his daily posts on Youtube. The most recent is a lengthy discussion of Vitamin D3.
    I’ve been looking through the comments ( 2000+ ) and I am quite glad that I ordered my resupply 7 weeks ago.

    It boosts & modulates the immune system.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fxw3nTZYlA

    14

    • #
      sophocles

      I sorta tripped over another interesting one: I’ll swap it for your Dr Campbell.
      (I like his honesty.)

      When on U-Toob, search for: D is for Debacle – The Crucial Story of Vitamin D and Human Health.
      I learnt more from it than I expected to.
      If you’ve already seen it, pse say so.

      10

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Soph please ! I have known about vitamin D3 for almost a decade. I take a 10,000 IU capsule a day. Last time i had my blood D3 measured, it was over 200 ngl..Yes and I live healthy & strong !

        My D3 guru is Jeff Bowles.he has written and self published numerous books and has websiyte. he was banging on about D3 to prevent COVID 19 disease back in late February.

        Do I think it should be prescribed to all older folk ? Yes, yes, yes !at high doses ! It’s not only stops Covid 19, it prevent osteopena and osteoporosis..Very useful for us old farts who can be susceptible to them!

        14

  • #
    thingadonta

    Stronger viruses sometimes produce longer term effects.

    I was a very healthy 35 year old who got the flu, was moderately sick for one day with fever, but couldn’t sit at my desk on the computer for 30 minutes without getting too tired and having to lie down, for almost a month. I’d never had the flu before. I was in the mountains of Peru in the summer when I got it, and my visit to Maccu Picchu 2 weeks later consisted of a short slow walk to pat a llama before I had to get back in the bus exhausted. But I did eventually fully recover.

    A bad virus can basically knock your system around, like being suddenly stunned but with a month long stun gun. My impression was the body sacrifices some of its normal ‘sharpness‘ to get rid of it more quickly, and this sharpness can take a while to get sharp again. There is some overlap between flu and covid19 in this respect.

    21

  • #
    cedarhill

    And toss a claimed cure into the mix:

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough

    As some have predicted, there are billions to be made.

    20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      If it works they deserve the Nobel prize for medicine !
      I’m sure the Swedes will be happy and willingly give it to them

      04

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Bill, that is pretty low comment.

        31

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Does that mean that you think these researchers have NOT earned the Nobel prize for medicine E S ?

          If so I disagree. Sweden needs a cure now as it’s government has proved so incompetent. But if not, maybe Norway will award this company the Nobel Peace Prize instead.

          A real cure would help bring about peace of mind for Billions of people.

          03

  • #
    Andrew McRae

    CCP up to their usual propaganda tricks again. Now they have signs written in public places in Wuhan describing the SARS-CoV-2 virus as “The American Virus” and are promoting the view it came from the American military. SerpentZA and C-Milk show the video leaked from streets of China and give their commentary on it [0:2:50] and various other China topics.

    (Off-topic bonus, at the 37 minute mark they talk about the “Thousand Talons” spy programme and spend quite a bit of time on it.)

    40

    • #
      Serp

      Thanks Andrew McRae. I watched the entire thing; a good refresher on the iniquities habitual to the CCP in its dealings with the world external to the PRC. Takeaway message is only buy from its competitors: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and etc.

      10

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Who is doing the bogey man scare campaign & why ?

    Australia & New Zealand are well on the road to eliminating this foreign CCP virus and it’s horrific disease. In SA there are now no active cases and no new infections found for the past 5 days..Despite a huge testing campaign to find the asymptomatic carriers or pre-symptomatic ones… WA, NT have also almost achieved the same goal : eliminate the virus. In Qld, NSW, Tas, & Vic the re are some new infections but only a very few and defined locations which are being isolated.

    So success lies with our grasp !

    But repeatedly on this blog we have the “Doubting Coronas” ( often foreign ) keen to tell us that we are wrong, that they virus is hiding and will break out in Oz again in other new strains. We are told, again mostly by foreigners, we must learn to live with it and n accept the deaths that come with that.

    I am sick & tired of all this foreign BS. I am sick and tired of all the bloody stupid repetitive ‘merry go round’ comments from blow ins who do not know this country and do not us Australians – or to be frank Kiwis either.

    I am sick and tired of all the “Plandemic Conspiracy” mongers who are convinced on no evidence that it’s a plot to deprive us of our freedom. It is utterly bloody useless tripe and a vast waste of Jo’s time and energy. It aint science. it aint even ‘sciency’. It’s just pointless gibberish.

    15

    • #

      you might want to read the cover story on today’s Saturday Paper

      11

      • #

        I meant to put in this https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/media/2020/05/16/how-covid-19-energised-conspiracy-theorists/15895512009831

        “If you already think there is something untoward going on in the background, then a major and unexpected event like the Covid-19 pandemic is going to be the kind of thing you start factoring into these plots and these capers that the mysterious masterminds behind the scenes are engaged in,” Dr M. Dentith, a conspiracy theory researcher and teaching fellow at the University of Waikato, tells The Saturday Paper.

        “So it is very much a case of going, ‘We think something is already wrong, here is something that is going wrong that everybody agrees is going wrong, how does that relate to the agenda?’”

        At first blush, the anti-lockdown protesters in Melbourne and Sydney last week – which drew only 100 people in Victoria and a few dozen in New South Wales – had little in common. The purported concerns ranged from vaccination to telecommunications towers, child sacrifice and assertions that the pathogen was a “plandemic” or “Covid hoax … brought to you by Satan”.

        But the signs and banners were bringing together anxieties that each fitted into a bigger picture, one that coronavirus holds together.

        etc

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          always a moderation danger with pasting

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          WXcycles

          Well, there are numerous real historically recorded conspiracies. These do occur. But so do natural viral pandemics.

          I do not see Bill Gates as anything but a wealthy dippy geek. Though I’ll never forget that Microsoft releasing Windows NT on to the business world. This alone was sufficient reason to break-up Microsoft, to ensure the evil ones could never do that to humanity again. But that didn’t happen, so Microsoft immediately released Windows ‘Me’, and Windows ‘Vista’ onto the general public as well.

          That’s the sort of evil we’re dealing with here.

          So when you look at the facts in perspective it’s not such a leap to suspect Bill Gates masterminded this whole thing — he has form.

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    cedarhill

    While lots of people are focusing on the few, the huge numbers will be like this (watch the 6 minute video):

    https://www.facebook.com/172852236081249/posts/3345742245458883/

    repeated millions upon millions of times. Just on the econ. only one industry.

    And the grail of vaccine will fail. They, for this type, hardly ever get past 30% effective meaning the goal posts are chasing off into Never-Never Land.

    And for what? Based on grossly inaccurate models, experts like Tony “Baghdad Bob” Fauci and entire government agencies up to their necks in conflict of interests. The whirlwind has started. Enduring damage. Folks should be really proud of the hysteria they helped create.

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      Kalm Keith

      This is the appalling part of the whole ugly business.

      This is more than just one decent hardworking woman, it’s a community that sees the disheartening truth that 31 years of effort can be taken and trashed by political circumstances.

      Here in Australia we undoubtedly have the same thing happening and that social cost will be large.

      The message is; “get a job in government” it’s too risky being a small business person. Farmers have had a hard time from government over water access, green monstering in its many forms, drought, fire and now CV19 “Preventive Action”,

      Now they have company.

      Soak up a bit of what’s at the link and consider that as you drive around your local area. How many businesses are permanently closed with for rent signs up?

      Lots of pain.

      KK

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    MrGrimNasty

    This will blow the minds of the doomsters – by the end of April 2020, all cause daily deaths in England and Wales were back below the 5 year average – see figure 2.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020

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    pyromancer76

    I am curious about differentiating the recovery of those who were treated early (within the first 3 or 4 days) with zinc + hydroxycholorquine + an antibiotic if necessary from those who “toughed it out” or used another regimen for cure (much less useful remdesivir, e.g.)

    My guess is there will be a difference. Better future prognosis. This med treatment has proven the most efficacious of all for both young and old, from my reading. Sometimes a steroid might be indicated, too. But this needs a valid study.

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    MrGrimNasty

    https://www.timeout.com/london/news/london-now-has-the-lowest-infection-rate-in-the-uk-051520

    Curious, the one place in the UK where it really ran wild………

    Almost as if, as repeatedly asserted, it would quickly burn out if left to run its natural course – just like every other CV epidemic in history.

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      tonyb

      mrgrim

      did you see the study today that cases started to decline in London BEFORE official lockdown came into effect?

      Bearing in mind the effective lockdown organised by UK citizens themselves, had been in place since end February this notion that lockdown was instrumental in pushing down cases doesn’t hold water

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    GD

    This has been one hell of a scary thread.

    And just when I thought it was safe to go out. For the present, I’ll be ordering everything online, exercising alone on the Bellarine Bike Trail, and for the rest of the time just continuing to hunker down.

    I don’t trust politicians, I don’t trust ‘experts’.

    The best I can do is limit my contact with other people and make sure I have a good stock of methylated spirits to disinfect my online deliveries.

    Am I crazy?

    Am I over-reacting?

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      Bill In Oz

      In the case of Victoria GD, I don’t think so. the Victorian Health Dpt. has proved itself utterly incompetent with the Cedar Meats fiasco. I think they will be discovering more Covid virus carriers for weeks more.

      Of course if the Vic Health started saying where people infected with this virus lived ( roughly not detailed ) that would help everyone work out the risks for themselves… But such information is a deeply held secret.

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    george1st:)

    There is still so much we don’t know about this virus .
    It has been a learning curve for all concerned citizens,scientists,bureau’s and Gov.
    The medical forecasts were frightening , action was taken .
    The economic fallout is a disaster .
    To measure the cost of each death against the cost to the economy is the wrong way to analyse the situation .
    For each death , the lockdowns may have saved thousands .
    Gov actions are limiting the worst case medical scenario .

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    dinn, rob

    —————————————————————-

    2005–an “illegal biological arms race with potentially catastrophic consequences” is underway
    4-24-2020 In December 2009 Reuters reported that the Obama administration was refusing even to negotiate the possible monitoring of biological weapons….The legal scholar who drafted the main U.S. law on the subject, Francis Boyle, warned in his 2005 book “Biowarfare and Terrorism” that an “illegal biological arms race with potentially catastrophic consequences” was underway, largely driven by the U.S. government….A 2013 study found that biodefense funding since 2001 had totaled at least $78 billion, and more has surely been spent since then. This has led to a proliferation of laboratories, scientists and new organisms, effectively setting off a biological arms race. …
    During this several year pause in synthetic virus research/development, exceptions for funding were made for dangerous gain-of-function lab work. This included work jointly done by U.S. scientists from the University of North Carolina, Harvard and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This work — which had funding from USAID and EcoHealth Alliance not originally acknowledged — was published in 2015 in Nature Medicine….
    Indeed there is also the question of conflict of interest in the Nature Medicine article. Some of the authors of that article, as well as a February 2020 Lancet letter condemning “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin” — which seemed calculated to minimize outside scrutiny of biodefense lab work — have troubling ties to the biodefense complex, as well as to the U.S. government. Notably, neither of these articles makes clear that a virus can have a natural origin and then be captured and studied in a controlled laboratory setting before being let loose, either intentionally or accidentally — which is clearly a possibility in the case of the coronavirus. …
    CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat stated, regarding gain-of-function lab work, that it is important to “protect researchers and their laboratory workers as well as the community around them and that we use science for the benefit of people.”

    [SNIP too long]

    -SAM HUSSEINI Twitter: @samhusseini https://www.salon.com/2020/04/24/did-this-virus-come-from-a-lab-maybe-not–but-it-exposes-the-threat-of-a-biowarfare-arms-race/

    [Rob, please post comments that are longer than 10 words and shorter than 200. That will get approved faster. Sorry I didnt have time to edit this, and I thought it was a different link which I have posted. Not this one. - Jo]

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    David Ashton

    Hi Joanne, I too am one of those perplexed by your obsession with this disease. Yesterday, here in the UK there were more non covid excess deaths than deaths of people with covid. The lockdown is killing more people than the disease. I guess mainly due to people not seeking help from GP or A&E. My wife is a retired Registered Nurse and still has friends working in the local General Hospital. They tell her that the hospital is less than 60% occupied, some wards are completely empty. A&E visits are down 60% on normal.

    I am one of a dwindling number who have had both Hong Kong flu, when I was 23 years old, and Covid-19 earlier this year, I am now 74 years old. I had moderate symptoms, a high temperature for 7 days, at or above 38.6°C for 5 days and a bad cough for 11 days. I have run 7 miles a day for most days since I stopped playing football in 1982. I went for my first run on the 14th day after first symptoms, admittedly a slow 4 miles, but was back to 7 miles and close to usual times 10 days later.
    The Hong Kong Flu was an altogether more serious affair. I remember it very well, we had been married just 6 weeks when I fell ill on boxing day afternoon. I ached from head to foot, the pains in my back and rib cage were particularly bad, preventing sleep. Day 5 I started to vomit, I couldn’t drink a glass of water without immediately throwing it back. For 10 days I kept myself hydrated by taking frequent small sips of water or milk. If I over did it, I would spend half an hour wretching over the toilet bowl. It was another 7 days before I was strong enough to go to work. When I did, my colleagues were urging me to go back home. Fortunately, I was able to make good use of my time in the library.
    I was a fit 6ft tall, 11st 10lb when I fell ill. I was under 10½ stone after three weeks. I didn’t play football again until March, didn’t make the 1st XI until the following season. If I was asked would I prefer Covid or Hong Kong, I think you know the answer.

    It is reported that 80,000+ people died in the UK from Hong Kong flu. My wife was the Nursing Sister on a large Medical Ward and spent that winter nursing people with complications due to Hong Kong flu and seeing many of her patients die, but she doesn’t recall Hong Kong flu going on the cause of death certificates, the 80,000 could be a gross underestimate. Whereas now, regardless of what you die from, if the Doctor suspects the patient had contracted Covid it goes on the death certificate. It smells to me as if there is a hidden agenda.

    My wife amazingly never caught Hong Kong flu but did catch Covid. Probably from me as her very mild symptoms appeared 7 days after mine. She is 2 years older than me, so is now 76 years old, and had slightly raised temperature for 3 days and an irritating (for her) cough for 7 days.

    This lockdown is pure madness by frightened or agenda driven politicians, following the totally untrustworthy WHO. Rant over, please return to the Climate Change conspiracy.

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      David Ashton

      I should have added that when my wife was treating those very sick patients her PPE consisted of disposable rubber gloves (used for all patient contact) and a washable re-usable apron, worn to prevent her uniform from getting marked.

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      Kalm Keith

      David,

      Go back to Global Warming? :-)
      CAGW analysis has never been about Science, it’s looking at the distortion of human nature from both ends, the Leaders and those being Misled.
      This CV19 histrionic moment in time is just an extension of the CAGW disease.

      The aim of the CAGW and CV19 “management” is the same: to give the Elites more control, power and wealth.

      The only difference between CAGW and CV19 is that the latter is very real and dangerous.

      KK

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    philf

    I see no mention of HCQ.
    Yet another doctor in Texas who had great HCQ success was on the Laura Ingraham Show (a youtube was removed before I could review it).
    Meanwhile, the USA powers that be have practically made HCQ unavailable.

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