JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Quarantine coming in three weeks: UK effectively advises infected people overseas to rush to UK now

It’s almost like the swamp in the UK wants to keep the infections running as long as possible.

The UK Government have scored heat on the pointless sabotage of their own lockdown by flying in the virus through open borders. So in reply, instead of doing an immediate proper quarantine, like most countries in the world, the UK is giving everyone with an infection and the means to travel three good weeks to plan their trip so that they can avoid the two-week quarantine.

If they beat the easy deadline they can stay at home for seven days instead and “only” go out to infect people at chemists, shops, and anywhere they deem essential, including their workplace, during that week.

Boris needs new advisors.

UK ‘to bring in 14-day quarantine’ for air passengers

Tom Burridge, BBC

UK airlines say they have been told the government will bring in a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving in the UK from any country apart from the Republic of Ireland in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The new restriction is expected to take effect at the end of this month.

Industry body Airlines UK said the policy needed “a credible exit plan” and should be reviewed weekly.

People arriving in the UK would have to self-isolate at a private residence.

Government and aviation sources told BBC News that the quarantine would mean people might be expected to provide an address when they arrive at the border.

The 14-day quarantine is still not a quarantine unless there is enforced isolation. Australians coming home have to stay in hotels and are fed and guarded.

In Victoria when people were allowed to “self isolate” — even knowing there were going to be checks and follow ups, 20% of those in isolation flouted the rules and were caught going out.

 Victoria Police fine 142 people in one day for breaching coronavirus quarantine

Josh Hanrahan, Daily Mail

More than 140 people have been fined across Victoria for breaching self-isolation or social distancing laws so far this weekend.

Of the 751 spot checks carried out at homes and businesses by police, almost one in five were found to be breaching the recently implemented laws.

When Italy got serious about a lockdown it only gave people hours notice and the masses crammed trains trying to “beat” (meaning “ruin”) the quarantine. We’re all human, and given the cost of getting stuck far from home, their reaction is very understandable. But if the UK government were serious about slowing the caseload they would instigate an enforced two week quarantine immediately.

There must be thousands of spare rooms at hotels right now that would love the business, and the cost of paying for it is nothing compared to holding the nation in another sabotaged week of lockdown.

Things worth knowing about Coronavirus:

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Quarantine coming in three weeks: UK effectively advises infected people overseas to rush to UK now, 7.8 out of 10 based on 50 ratings

215 comments to Quarantine coming in three weeks: UK effectively advises infected people overseas to rush to UK now

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    The British government has been secretly taken over by the Goons.
    I suspect the intention is make us laugh.
    But as former Pomie, I can only cry !
    Surely Queen Liz could set them straight
    For here people’s sake ?

    716

    • #
      el gordo

      Must have something to do with the herd mentality, across the Atlantic they are in a state of quandary. This is apocalyptic.

      ‘America appears near to major economic depression and social collapse, and this is now top of the list of dangers from COVID-19.’ Alan Kohler/Oz

      911

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Alan Kohler

        Alan Kohler is a well known lefty member of the MSM.

        He’s an committed anti-Trumper. Anything he can do to denigrate a Republican governed USA is always a pleasure for him. Kohler came out of their ABC. He is a carrier of the ABC’s virus. Objectivity is not a characteristic that he recognizes. To make matters worse he’s a Keynesian.

        Take anything he says with a big grain of salt.

        However, it is another reason why “The Australian” is such a good newspaper. It allows all views to be aired. Most readers treat Kohler as a joke. They’re a very discerning readership at the Oz.

        484

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          And, here’s an example of Kohler’s bias, straight from the article that el gordo quoted from:

          “Holding the country’s nerve in the face of such a devastatingly fast rise in unemployment would be a huge challenge for the highest quality political leadership, but America has the misfortune to be led by a hopelessly incompetent narcissist incapable of providing even a semblance of consistently responsible leadership.”

          Kohler at his socialist left best.

          423

          • #
            el gordo

            He should know better, the ASX is on a solid rise and the big end of town around the world is making a comeback.

            ‘Global stock indexes mostly rose, as investors continued to focus on the potential for a recovery in business activity in the months ahead, and to look beyond recent grim economic data.’ WSJ

            133

          • #
            TdeF

            And a huge rant against Donald Trump by Troy Bramston in the Australian “not the leader we need in a crisis“. When was Donald Trump our Prime Minster? Perhaps he should migrate and vote for octogenerians Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders?

            Perhaps Troy would prefer President Xi who had nothing to do with the virus. Or Angela Merkel or Macron? It’s sad that the left hates Putin now, because he is not a real communist. And they still promote Cuba and Venezuela as the height of successful socialism. Which may be true.

            If the Wuhan Flu crisis has done anything, it has shown how completely out of touch most journalists are despite having strong opinions on everything. And how certain they are on every subject, regardless of their actual understanding. No wonder man made CO2 driven global warming is now pushed as true.

            “The Science” is underwritten written by journalists like Kohler, former editor of both the Age and the Financial Review. It is getting difficult to get any factual news, given how it is so distorted by the point of view of the reporter in true Age fashion. Perhaps worst is America where video news clips are now blatantly edited or truncated to change the meaning of what was said and so influence public opinion.

            Reporters are now inventing their own news, worse than ever. You only have to read a few lines before you realise it is completely fact free rubbish.

            162

          • #

            Plus, Kohler has drunk from the Modern Monetary Policy well. He has lost what credibility he once had in the 1980s.

            61

      • #
        cedarhill

        A US law professor posted the following:

        The center did not hold under prolonged and arbitrary lockdowns, as predicted
        https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/the-center-did-not-hold-under-prolonged-and-arbitrary-lockdowns-as-predicted/#more-317862

        He makes several good points which have been echoed in recent US court rulings regarding the arbitrariness and inconsistency of the dictates.

        31

      • #
        Geoff Croker

        https://youtu.be/DyPWRaujBII

        Alan Kohler who?

        Scaring people makes Alan MONEY!

        It’s call the MEDIA.

        Follow the graphs. They lead nowhere.

        41

    • #
      MudCrab

      Problem with the UK is that Tony Blair managed to get a Supreme Court installed. Now to us non UK types this doesn’t seem a bad idea, but we forget our legal systems is completely different.

      So rather than an ethical and moral collection of legal respectable sworn to uphold the letter and spirt of the law, they have a Star Chamber who ensure the law is applied in the way they personally approve of.

      Result? Lawfare at the highest level.

      One of their latest tricks was to declare you could not legal deport a criminal if the destination country had worse health care, as that was clearly inhuman and/or degrading.

      So regardless on what your stance is on Lockdown for Wuhan Flu (and I know mine differs greatly from a number of people here), thanks to the UK Supreme Court I am not sure the UK could close their borders even if they wanted to.

      Pity. I like the UK. Would have been nice to visit it again one more time before the world ends in 12 years.

      (it is still 12 years? Someone get Greta’s Dad on the line for a formal update!)

      350

      • #
        sophocles

        Mudcrab asked @ #1.2:

        it is still 12 years?

        … as of last year, yes. AOC confirmed …

        80

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        It may be that the UK may “test fly” the digital wrist bands to track people.

        Maximizing infections means this can be trialed easily amongst a freaked out population who are begging to be “saved”

        A scared population is easy prey to the globalists.

        And once it becomes standard, it will be rolled out across the world. For our “safety” of course.

        I doubt it would work here, people would destroy them. So like that stupid “safe” app for phones , people love their phones, so they will do it electronically here.

        I will dump my smartphone if that happens and go to a candy bar phone.

        One thing I’ve learnt about the globalists – “Safe” is a code word for “control”

        191

        • #
          Sapel Mirrup

          Steve,

          Your comment “I will dump my smartphone if that happens…” betrays your worry and wariness, with a touch of wit. Totally justified.

          But, if you wait until “that happens” it will be far too late.
          You need to think about ditching your smartphone now and if you really need such a thing, get an ‘Amish’ style phone. You know, the older ones that are mobiles but are just a basic phone, nothing more.

          And while you’re at it, try to convince as many others as you can to do the same.

          The proportion of smartphones circulating is one of the metrics they will use to justify bringing in their control measures, for our ‘safety’ of course.

          81

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Fair point.

            And right on cue – control, control and more control…..Cov19 appears to be the gateway/catalyst for the globalists to keep society fearing a viral boogey man for whole generation. Its an AIDS or 9 / 11 reboot ( brought to you from the same people, of course )

            It seems they have “flown” a virus into society, 9 / 11 style ….. almost literally….is Heathrow still accepting incoming flights?

            /Sarc.

            Life “1984″-style – the “1984″ “Perpetual War” – but on Cov19.
            In “1984″ war never stopped, but justified constant lockdown and a tyrannical & brutal govt surveillance State.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/health/boris-johnson-there-may-never-be-covid-19-vaccine

            “UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that a coronavirus treatment or vaccine may be more than a year away – and in fact may never arrive, according to a 60-page ‘Covid-19 recovery strategy’ document which details how the UK plans to emerge from lockdown.

            “”A mass vaccine or treatment may be more than a year away. Indeed, in a worst-case scenario, we may never find a vaccine,” said Johnson. “So our plan must countenance a situation where we are in this, together, for the long haul, even while doing all we can to avoid that outcome.”

            “Other notable items from the document (via The Independent):

            “For the first time, the UK government is recommending that the public wear face-coverings in public settings such as mass transportation and some shops.

            “Schools and non-essential shops will begin reopening starting June 1.

            “”Social bubbles” where two households can mingle are under consideration.

            “Easing of restrictions will be contingent upon no resurgence of the virus – which would cause the government to reimpose tight lockdowns, either nationally or locally or both.

            “”If the data goes the wrong way, if the alert level begins to rise, we will have no hesitation in putting on the brakes and delaying or reintroducing measures locally, regionally, or nationally,” said Johnson.

            UK Govt publication :

            https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy

            51

        • #

          My “smart” phone is not very smart. It needs to be turned on to read a message or reply and it keeps running out of battery. I turn it off to save the battery but after a few days or is it a week? the battery has run out and I can not even make a call. Often, I can not find it. Sometimes I have left in the car when I am inside at home. Often, I have put it on charge and I do not have it in the car with me when I go to the beach for a swim or exercise walking. I have switched off location but even if it was on it would be mostly stationary because it is not with me. By the way what is “blue tooth”? I am sure most of those switches are off. I used to have a self winding watch. That would make sense in a phone. I do have a watch with a battery which lasts several years about the life of the watch.

          61

          • #
            Aaron Christiansen

            I am the same.

            “By the way what is “blue tooth”?”

            A really big drain on the battery, it should be turned off for best battery life performance…

            10

      • #
        ian hilliar

        UK left their borders open. Taiwan and Hong Kong closed their borders to china very early. They did NOT Shut down their economies, but did practice social isolation. Their economies remain intact, and with a combined population equal to that of Australia, they have had a TOTAL of 10 deaths. (I am not sure about the fate of the 16 Hong Kong democracy protestors that their CCP leaders had imprisoned). So one has to wonder at the Australian and NZ lockdowns and exactly what impact,, apart from economic, it has had. Number one was stopping travel from “plague” infected areas.

        170

        • #
          RickWill

          Every quarantine rule has an impact about 12 days down the track in terms of number of cases.

          Australia stopped flights from China in early February – Qantas 9 February last flights out of China carrying Chinese nationals – to the dismay of administrators at Australian universities.

          Australia stopped all international passenger flights on 20 March apart from those returning Australian citizens.

          Non-essential workers and citizens in Australia were in lockdown on 23 March.

          The decline in cases presented began to decline in early April. The peak was actually reached in late March with 537 cases on the day of lockdown being the highest.

          The most impactful action on Australia’s pandemic controls was likely stopping international arrivals. I should not have been surprised by Tom Hanks testing positive on 12 March but I was. That is when I knew the US had a problem – they had already failed to contain.

          Other countries were a little different. Spain locked down on 14 March and daily cases peaked at over 8000 on 26 March. Clearly internal spread was already rampant at the point of lockdown.

          The lockdown in Australia did bring order and stability to the food and other essential supplyies chain. This as a reminder for people with short memories:
          https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6139210066001

          40

          • #

            I know someone in Queensland Health who says flights from USA should have been stopped 2 weeks earlier- would have prevented many dozens of cases. I arrived back from overseas at Brisbane airport just as 2 big planes landed from USA. Arrivals hall jam packed. Minimal checking at the airport- have you come from China/ Iran/ Italy? Beats me how Australia did so well.

            70

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Ken.

            Our CV19 situation is not a matter of brilliant action by the “authorities”, it’s just that we have many factors absent from our list that create large numbers overseas in places like New York and Italy.

            The only largish factor in our CV19 toll has been our ruby like politicians.

            That boat “offloading” stinks to high he’ll and back.

            It was just poor judgement, no money was involved: no donations were made to any political parti.

            KK

            50

    • #
      Saighdear

      YOU can only cry? .. How do youu think AYE feel? wanna scream – but nobody’s lizznin ! and I live here. and then you read ( ‘cos I don’t watch the propaganda on the tv “now” ) that our Fish Sturgeon doesn’t know what the R Value is – ashe says, her ex-spirts don’t know either! How Dare They!

      111

      • #
        Annie

        I had planned to visit the UK to see my very old mother and my siblings and maybe some of our longest-standing best friends at about this time. I put it off before ‘lockdown’ as it didn’t seem sensible. Will I see them, especially my mother, again?

        180

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          Annie, at this very moment we should be in Fort William, on the north west coast of Scotland, where I spent the first three years of my life during WWII. All my siblings live in Scotland and I am not sure if we will ever get back there again. The only bright thing is, it’s warmer here in the Blue Mountains than it is in the highlands of Scotland!

          210

          • #
            Peter C

            Hi Peter,

            I have made one brief trip into the Scottish highlands by car three years ago. Fort William is on the short loop tour so it was our first main stop. It is not a place that I would choose to go for a swim, but the mountain scenery is fantastic.

            Fort William is a port so I made a visit to the water front and was confronted by a weird sort of submersible. The purpose of this vessel I am still guessing at. The company had some connection with Tasmania.

            90

          • #
            Annie

            I hope you do manage to go back before too long Peter. Likewise, I hope to visit before long, before feeling too old!

            100

        • #
          tonyb

          Annie

          I don’t know where they live or your mothers health but my thoughts would be definitely yes. The very elderly are vulnerable and need shielding, but you would find things surprisingly normal here, except of course for a variety of shut shops and people queuing outside supermarkets.

          Today we walked down to our beach hut to watch the waves, had lunch inside (chilly wind) and walked back up the hill and could have had a socially distanced coffee, Panini or fish and chips from the café takeaway at the top. Went in to the post office and chemists -2 pe3ople in front-, Sainsbury’s-no queue and went home, where we will sit outside and have a cup of tea. There are people working on the building site and buses are running on time. Everyone round here is behaving very sensibly.

          As regards Fort William when we were there last we walked up Ben Nevis. Although seemingly relatively small don’t underestimate it if anyone reading this are tempted to walk up!

          everything is far more normal than might be the impression from the MSM. On Wednesday we will be allowed to drive to nearby Dartmoor to have a walk in the bluebells and anticipate getting an Indian takeaway in the evening-one of many takeaways responsibly opening. have a great trip-when the time is right!

          110

          • #
            Annie

            Hello Tonyb. It sounds lovely where you are and you are making me homesick! We do have beautiful autumn colours here atm. I love the spring flowers and miss the great sheets of bluebells in the woods in Gloucestershire and out in the open on the west side of the Malvern Hills and at Thorp Perrow in North Yorkshire. I love the wild primroses, daffodils, wood anemones, cow parsley, milkmaids, May blossom, ‘candles’ on the horsechestnut trees…
            I had a good chat with my mother last night. She was full of praise for her care home staff and how they celebrated the 75th Anniversary of VE Day. Someone came into her room with a cup of afternoon tea while we were chatting.
            The nonsense Jo describes above is enough to put me off trying to travel at present, not to mention the that the home is still under lockdown and I would have to pass through Dubai, full of people from all over normally so a health worry at the best of times on the ‘airside’.

            60

          • #
            Annie

            We have a very good friend who lives next to Dartmoor and walks there every day and we were very glad we went there last October to see him after he lost his wife earlier in the year; she was a wonderful friend. We had a very happy stay with them in 2017 and walked on Dartmoor with them.

            60

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The problem in the UK is that they thought socialism was a good idea. After that it was all downhill.

      10

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The problem in the UK is that they thought socialism was a good idea. After that it was all downhill.

      00

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The problem in the UK is that they thought socialism was a good idea. After that it was all downhill.

      10

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      The problem in the UK is that they thought socialism was a good idea. After that it was all downhill.

      00

  • #
    TedM

    If there is any nation that knows how to sacrifice/slaughter their own it’s the British. They did it in WW1, when their commanding officers sent tens of thousands to their deaths charging machine guns with bayonets. They continued to do this until John Monash was given command.
    They hadn’t learnt by WW2 and they still haven’t learnt with the war against the CCP virus.

    The old British bulldog may still demonstrate it’s courage, but why does it have to be tempered by such incredible stupidity.

    1813

    • #
      Saighdear

      Huh, the old British Bulldog needs its Nuts crushed. Slavering old Gitt. Time for a new Breed – but which? WHY did we EVER think up that slogan – cause tha waht Churchie looked liked? Be careful what you wish for, eh?

      67

      • #
        tonyb

        saighdear

        the term the Bulldog breed predated Churchill by several centuries

        “Its strength, tenacity and willingness to fight larger animals appealed to 18th-century political cartoonists, who began depicting the female figure of Britannia being accompanied by both a lion and Bulldog.”

        That Churchill did look like a bulldog and exhibited the same tenacity is a fortunate historic coincidence.

        201

        • #
          TdeF

          And remember Winston Churchill was born in 1874 and he did not look like a bulldog all his life! He was a handsome leiutenant when he led the charge of his lancers against the massed guns of the dervishes at Khartoum in 1998. It was very dangerous and the cause of the greatest British losses in the war, but he was utterly fearless.

          And as a correspondent in the Boer war. And first Lord of the Admiralty in WW1 but Australians know him from when he became the remarkable wartime Prime Minister at 65. He was last PM in 1955 at the age of 81.

          People age. And he loved his cigars and his whisky. Few people packed so much adventure and sheer accomplishment into their lives. The Nobel Prize for Literature included. If that’s the breed, it takes a lot of beating. And few know Donald Trump’s mother was Scottish and Winston Churchill’s mother was American.

          93

          • #
          • #
            Bill In Oz

            I think a lot of Americans are now blaming that Scottish mother !
            :-)

            27

            • #
              TdeF

              The world owes the Scots a great deal. They were the world’s greatest engineers and intrepid traders. It was a Chinese fluent Scotsman who brought the tea plants out of China. Australia was built by the Scots, as in so many countries. Besides, where would Americans be with that Scottish staple, McDonalds?

              51

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              That’s sexist.

              02

          • #
            tonyb

            Indeed, he was a dashing man when he was young. I remember my father insisting we go to the local railway station to see his funeral cortege go past in a heavily union jacked train.

            There were thousands wanting to pay their re3spects. Strange to think that although he was of a very different era he coexisted with the Beatles. Mind you, I also find it weird that the Vikings existed with the Romans (Varangian guard at Byzantium) and the final collapse of The empire occurred at much the same time America was discovered!

            40

  • #
    Bright Red

    How dare Britain do it differently and not do it exactly like some want them to. /sarc. Hands up who has first hand on the ground previous experience with a virus like CV19 and can demonstrate their effectiveness at defeating it. Crickets! Looks like the so called experts are working from text books written by other people with no actual experience either. And don’t get me started on computer models. Quarantine has proven effective at exactly what? Reducing the rate of infection to not overwhelm the health care system? Yep looks like it will do that. But what else? Has it been proven to reduce the number of CV19 deaths when all is done and the dust has settled. Not as far as I can tell. Could a quarantine have negative side effects? Yep sure looks like it.
    Who knows what the final outcome will be but calling the final score now is becoming a national/international pastime.

    2018

    • #
      TedM

      There the two small matters of logic and common sense.

      178

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Yep. Agreed Ted.

        Both are missing from Bright Red’s analysis.

        He obviously hasn’t been following this blog for long, otherwise he’s have read this:

        http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/

        129

      • #
        Bright Red

        Your problem is Ted your logic and common sense don’t extend more than 5 minutes from now. You feel good because you have a small win based on your own method of scoring but this is a game in which even the length is unknown and is unlikely to be scored the way you want it to be. Also your sense of perspective is a bit out of touch. Between 15,000 and 20,000 people die in Australia form smoking each year. We could easily stop that very quickly (would be negative side effects though) but we don’t and just accept it without locking the entire country down. Note to self Must stay at home might inhale some second hand smoke. /sarc. What’s the load on our health care system from smoking? Current deaths in Aus from CV19 97. You might want to check smoking deaths in the US with CV19 deaths and get back to me.

        2124

        • #
          TedM

          Goodness me Bright Red, quite a dissertation. Not sure what it has to do with civid19 though.

          1212

        • #
          GD

          In these trying and uncertain times, it’s interesting to note that not only clear-thinking people but also trolls gravitate to the blog that publishes common sense, scientific knowledge, and informed opinion.

          It’s a pity that the trolls don’t seem to learn anything yet continue to keep annoying the rest of us.

          83

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            10 green thumbs and an elephant stamp GD.
            The favourite weapon of trolls is the Ad hominem.

            53

        • #
          ian hilliar

          Agree totally, BG. As we know , Taiwan and Hong Kong have had a total number of 10 covid deaths between them, without comitting economic suicide. I have been a fan of Jo Nova since she started this blog, but I disagree with her on this. In spite of ALL the emails I receive, EVERY DAY, from our dept of health and RACGP, which appear to parrot the WHO mantras. I quite liked the Japanese government suggestion of re- branding the WHO as the CHO( Chinese Health Organisation)

          173

    • #
      WXcycles

      “Bright Red” said: Quarantine has proven effective at exactly what? Reducing the rate of infection to not overwhelm the health care system? Yep looks like it will do that. But what else? Has it been proven to reduce the number of CV19 deaths when all is done and the dust has settled.

      Seriously? You actually dispute if quarantine works to limit the spread of killer diseases in a country? Plus you talk BS about books and experts? Really?

      Yes, it is proven, our quarantine prevented a gush of further imported cases so once the imported disease failed to transmit through the various state lockdowns and social distancing, plus home isolation (home quarantine) put in place, the deaths quickly dropped to a very low level.

      OZ = 6,941 cases and 97 deaths
      UK = 219,183 cases and 31,855 deaths

      Quarantine absolutely works.

      What is astonishing is that ANYONE would be so brazen as to seriously questioning if quarantine works given recent experience and centuries of success with quarantine procedures, which we know for certain did work. Books, theory and experts have nothing to do with this, a train monkey (or a UK public servant) could put in place an effective quarantine. Even poor countries can do it.

      Home quarantine was a technique widely used in Australia during the late 1950s against deadly pandemic “Asian Flu”. it worked then as well. It always works.

      On what grounds do you cast fake doubt on quarantine? Or insinuate it would a “failure”? Or that its effectiveness is in question? it isn’t, it’s thoroughly proven. If you’re actually suggesting quarantine should be abandoned you are making it very easy to reject what you say without further consideration. Please try explaining to Beijing why they should abandon quarantine, and you’ll get a rather dismissive reply, if you get one at all.

      People are being much too kind to your deeply confused palaver.

      2214

      • #
        Bright Red

        Show me your actual proof a quarantine (if you can actually call it that given the leaks they all have)/ forced lockdown (that only 80% obey) for CV19 works to reduce the total death count when All is done and dusted. You have non at all.

        1422

        • #
          WXcycles

          Your thoroughly absurd claims (pulled entirely out of your Khyber Pass) which seek to insinuate some sort of fake doubt on the effectiveness of quarantine, displays what you are.

          1412

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Think of it…a virus small enough to filter/squeeze through the Khyber Pass then..a mindbogglingly narrow virus with respect to the Khyber Pass…i would conjure the finest stainless steel strainer would have trouble filtrating a corona, least of all a Khyber Pass mesh size……i have said it here since the last micro-pore …i said somewhere perhaps the endeavor might be valid if trying to eradicate fruit flies..or maybe a cane toad or two….sheer necessity requires i am drawing the line somewhere and for me it is at fruit flies. Viruses are too small to effectively contain…perhaps ‘period’.

            Trying to filter viruses out of life is perhaps folly in my non expert opinion. They are too small to control in any kind of an efficient means whatsoever

            thanks.

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            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Some discussion to indirectly provide some perspective/background on ‘quarantine’ with respect to basic, and some might say ‘boring’, fruit flies in this case.

              A very interesting talk, if not specifically/categorically about viruses 8 mins circa.

              Michael Dickinson (CalTech) 3: How Flies Fly: Control
              1,301 views
              •Apr 22, 2020″

              From: https://youtu.be/lv5vDW59hbY?t=531

              47

          • #
            Bright Red

            WX It appears you did not even read Jo’s article. Read it again and try to comprehend the bit about people not obeying the lockdown. FYI 1in5 is 20% so what’s left is 80%.
            So I take it given there are many other factors at play like hand sanitiser and better hygiene practice in general as well as aggressive test and trace strategies that you are are unable to produce any evidence that the curve flattening is due solely to the lockdown/quarantine or even show the proportion for which it is responsible.

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            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              You’re dissembling now, Bright Red.

              Quarantine works. It works ever better in conjunction with other behaviour changes.

              Australia’s success was not a product of quarantine only. It also included other practices.

              Your argument is barren.

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              GlenM

              I concur Bright Red. Avoiding others and sanitising works -not lockdown quaranteeing.

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              • #
                GlenM

                Also avoiding faulty prophylactics from China.

                22

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Glen avoiding others is a form of self Quarantine , and you wouldn’t even have to do that if we shut the national border earlier .

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        • #
          Orson

          Ah. Try New Zealand, mate.

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        • #
          GD

          Show me your actual proof a quarantine .. works to reduce the total death count when all is done and dusted

          Done and dusted?

          William Shakespeare quarantined himself during the Great Plague. I’m sure humanity is glad that he didn’t follow the ‘herd immunity’ theory.

          Otherwise, we wouldn’t have such gems as:

          The quality of mercy is not strained.
          It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
          Upon the place beneath. It is twice blessed:
          It blesseth him that gives and him that takes.

          ‘Tis mightiest in the mightiest. It becomes
          The thronèd monarch better than his crown.
          His scepter shows the force of temporal power,
          The attribute to awe and majesty
          Wherein doth sit the dread and fear of kings,
          But mercy is above this sceptered sway.

          It is enthronèd in the hearts of kings.
          It is an attribute to God himself.
          And earthly power doth then show likest God’s
          When mercy seasons justice.

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        UK-Weather Lass

        Quarantine absolutely works.

        For sure; my grandfather was quarantined with typhoid fever; lockdown is stopping perfectly healthy people from working and keeping people who may already be immune from Covid-19 from carrying on as normal. Influenza happens every year and SARS-CoV-2 is simply an addition to an already long list. The lockdown is unprecedented and yet nobody I know of has actually produced meaningful evidence that it is the right policy to deal with this virus. For sure if we had been prepared we could have tested and isolated anyone infected but, for all we know, there are numbers of people who may be immune, infected and infectious but asymptomatic, recovered and immune, recovered and still vulnerable, etc., because our testing regimes have not been effective.

        Quarantine is not the same as lockdown.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Hands up who has first hand on the ground previous experience with a virus like CV19 and can demonstrate their effectiveness at defeating it.

      My hand is up and proudly so. I was one of the very many Australians willing to stay at home to reduce risk to our essential supplies and services. Anyone living in Taiwan can do the same. As well as all the other countries that have crushed the virus. It may still exist within our borders but we can be confident we know how to crush any flare up should that occurs.

      There are plenty of examples around the world that demonstrated quite clearly what was required. China made it very clear that draconian action was needed once the virus was released. They quarantined Wuhan from the rest of the country. Every government across the globe knew what China did to control the spread. Many arrogant western leaders underestimated China’s medical prowess and ability to control the spread of the virus. They view China’s medical health as 3rd world.

      Outside China, Taiwan is by far the best example-
      Warned the WO of the risk in December 2019
      Closed borders to China in January 2020
      With aid of China, had testing available in January
      All positive cases resulted in extensive contact tracing through a range of electronic and manual means.

      Taiwan result – 440 cases and 6 deaths. Last death more than a month ago.

      Anyone who has the slightest education in history knows that closed borders and quarantine are the best controls against invisible virus or bacterium. The one exposure on the planet that should not be learnt by experience is how to deal with a 1 in 100 year epidemic, turned pandemic. Here is a great lesson from history very close to the topic of this thread:
      https://www.businessinsider.com/eyam-self-quarantine-bubonic-plague-prevented-community-spread?r=AU&IR=T

      In 1666, William Mompesson, the rector of Eyam village, gathered its 750 residents to lay out a plan for containing an outbreak of the bubonic plague. They arrived at the decision to voluntarily quarantine, with no one leaving or entering until plague cases ceased.

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        Peter C

        Well I am holding my hand up as well.

        I have not overly isolated, I have been shopping almost every day, to supermarkets and other providers of essentials such as hardware stores.

        I do use a face mask with a plastic visor whenever I am in a shop or takeaway food store. The mask was supposedly a single use SSM (Standard Surgical Mask) but it gets used over and over. I have done lots of hand washing and sanitising. These things are easy to do and I think, provide a substantial degree of protection if some one sneezes in my vicinity.

        The effectiveness of masks has not yet been proven but it seems that they could be very good indeed, especially in areas of social crowding.

        I absolutely agree with closed borders (with quarantine) and contract tracing. Our Health Departments have made elementary mistakes with that but I think they are improving.

        I think the low risk states such as WA, SA and NT should keep their borders closed to visitors from other states until they have tested the water with their own staged reductions.

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        • #
          Annie

          Hear hear PeterC! I’ve used a mask while out shopping, an FFP2 that I must have bought quite a long while ago. I wash it in anti-bacterial handwash everytime it is used and then hang it out in the sun and fresh air. It has a bit of eucalyptus dabbed inside when taken into use. No visors available here, not seen anyway.

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        Bright Red

        You seem confused. Is it the entire population lockdown or the test and trace that is having the greatest effect on reducing CV19 spread? My money is on the test and trace but you seem to be attributing the success of that method to the entire population lockdown.

        1310

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Yes confusion reigns
          In your own mind.
          But a few try patently to help you
          Learn & understand.
          But me I suspect your aim is merely to sow confusion.

          816

          • #
            Bright Red

            I’m sure you must have expertise in multi variable experiments to be so confident you know that lockdowns are the only thing at play here or more likely you have never heard of them. Despite all the other things going on like hand washing with sanitiser and better hygiene practice in general along with aggressive testing and contact tracing you still choose to believe that they make no difference and all slowing of the spread is due to forced lockdowns/quarantine. Learn from you ? Ha ha ha

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            • #

              Brightred, if you’d been reading here longer than a week (or even in the post above) you’d know that nearly everywhere major isolation started was followed around 12 days later with a big reduction in the exponential growth (as predicted).

              http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/ancient-technology-wins-quarantine-and-isolation-still-work/

              The only places that haven’t crushed the curve are the ones with open borders, started too late or are only doing a half lockdown.

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              • #
                Joe

                Jo, while the Left/Right paradigm you promote might fit the climate scam within some of our Western democracies, it seems to fail on the global scale where it is the large leftie countries that seem to not buy into it other than for some local benfit. How does this same paradigm fit the Covid handling, the science of which you clearly elucidate here? It would seem that most of our large Western democracies are ruled with very far rightie governments atm but it is these same far rightie government ruled countries that are not faring as well in getting the virus under control. Is there really any strong nexus between understanding of science and the Left/Right divide? Any historical evidence of that? I note that you and commenters here tend to make excuses for Boris saying things like: ‘I wonder who is advising him?’ but Donald seems to have escaped your wrath as he most definitely claims to make or approve of all decisions related to the handling of the virus but is generally cheered on here as some sort of a model ‘conservative’. While we discuss here the work done in China on these viruses we don’t discuss what other nations around the world are either involved in the work in China or are doing research in their own countries. I would think that it is fair to assume that if any one country is doing the research on these viruses for warfare purposes then all countries that have these capabilities are doing it. If any of this research is in the hands of the military or secret services then it is reasonable to assume that we will never know about it. It is a bit naive to assume that some sort of ‘investigation’ would somehow blow the cover of any secretive research. Its all spy v spy stuff. How would we ever hope to know which lab was ultimately responsible, if indeed it was something sinister or even accidental, as each will blame the other? Do we just believe our Government told story? That’s generally what we are expected to do as citizens of a country?

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              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Jo Trump has been in office as President since January 2016.
                Almost 4 years.
                Time enough to make a difference.

                Boris has been PM since last September
                And only able to get a majority in the Commons since last December.
                And he was focussed on Brexit mostly.

                Plus he came down with COVID himself.
                I do not think he has recovered fully from that either.
                So I tend to dish out less criticisms on Boris.
                But his government must take the responsibility
                For the awful stuff ups that have happened in the Aged care homes
                And the lack of any quarantine for incoming travellers since this pandemic started.
                Bloody stupid IMO.

                35

              • #
                Bright Red

                Jo you are ignoring the fact that In this case forced isolation was just one of many measures taken and some of those measures such as modern tracing capabilities like Taiwan have no past equivalent. So to claim all success is due to the lockdown alone is not warranted. I agree that the lockdown has contributed to flattening the curve but what has it achieved? Our Hospitals in Aus have almost no patients so we have clearly prevent excess deaths by not overwhelming our medical system. I suspect that in our specific situation enough people would have self isolated out of fear to not overwhelm our medical system with no need for forced isolation. The government could have kept us informed or regional hospital capacity as a % and only acted in a given area when it would exceed 100%.
                As to saving lives overall say on a yearly averaged excess mortality basis the forced lockdown has probably increased deaths not reduced them and come at an enormous cost. So our healthcare system has not been anywhere near the limit of its capacity to cope but you have No evidence at all that it was a forced lockdown that enabled that to happen.
                FYI I have been feeding you chocolate for many years with occasional comments.

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        • #
          RickWill

          Is it the entire population lockdown or the test and trace that is having the greatest effect on reducing CV19 spread?

          The vast majority of Australians were not willing to host a dangerous virus. The virus would be crushed in 14 to 20 days if there was zero interpersonal contact; clearly longer for individuals being ravaged by the virus. So staying at home, quarantined from others, is the easiest method for individuals to isolate from others. However there are essential services and supply to stay alive so there is potential exposure for essential workers and when non-essential workers resupply. That results in inevitable transfer of the virus. Contact tracing is therefore an essential component.

          The priorities are for nations:
          #1 Border controls
          #2 Reliable testing
          ## Contact track and tracing

          For individuals a single priority; so simple:
          Avoid vicinity of and contact with others – self quarantine.

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          • #
            GlenM

            What no outdoor activities, no travel to known safe areas in your own region.React to outbreaks and contain them as the situation declares. Vast areas of Australia don’t have to succumb to this mass stupidity.

            44

            • #
              RickWill

              What no outdoor activities, no travel to known safe areas in your own region.

              I have seen many more people walking in our neighbourhood than ever before. No limit on doing things alone outdoors. I have split logs in my son’s yard for firewood for the last 4 weeks. That is a good solid outdoor activity for me.

              The further you travel from home the greater burden you put on the shared infrastructure. That increases risk to essential workers. The pont, there is not only you – literally millions not employed will want to do the same things.

              Parks Victoria was quite selective in what was shut and what was open. Hundreds of people were cycling in Lysterfield park. The gates have been closed at Wilson’s Gardens near me since lock down. So thoughtful application by them.

              Then how do you declare a safe area. Look at what was going on at beaches. Then you say beaches are safe with any number. I doubt there is evidence to prove that.

              What about fishing – it is often done alone. Well have you ever been to St Kilda pier when the fish are running.

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            • #
              WXcycles

              React to outbreaks and contain them as the situation declares.

              You don’t know until you know Glen, how are you going to decide in advance who has it? Twenty over twenty revisionism does not cut it (and it’s getting really stale reading these endlessly repeated comments).

              There was never a capacity to tell in the community had it, and the reports and advice from Italy at the time made clear that govts need to act bigger and sooner than they think, and need to do more of it than they think, and part of that was a strict lockdown. In the end the Italians needed to threaten attempted manslaughter charges against people willfully ignoring the national quarantine and lockdown conditions. The only thing preventing the UK doing this and ending it is political spinelessness and a lethal dithering incompetence.

              A short, sharp lockdown causes, (or rather, caused) the virus to burnout everywhere at once in Australia, we didn’t even need to know where it was, and we also didn’t have the capacity to know where it was — and we still don’t — but the short sharp lockdown worked, it was predictable that it would work, and it showed excellent results in just over 7 to 8 days from it commencing.

              Yet again this discussion is trolling over the very same stuff for the 400th time. Frankly, who cares what your post-facto opinion of it is? It makes no difference, we voted ScoMo in, and he and ministers, combined with Premiers made these decisions, which have worked. Your opinion of it all will only matter at the next election.

              And over the next several months this disease is going to progressively grow to very much larger proportions in a lot of countries which have failed to impose a short sharp strict lockdown policy and a strong quarantine.

              Self-regulating quarantines are not quarantines at all, a real quarantine is not optional, you have no choice, travel is a privilege at this time, it’s not our right to go everywhere and anywhere in a pandemic emergency. You may disagree, you may really disagree, but break the law in Italy and you can go to prison for attempted manslaughter. That is a real quarantine. You’d hope he population would see reason and do the rational thing, and in Australia this occurred, we topped out early and shut it down fast.

              Smaller peak = Faster recovery.

              A viable and real quarantine from a cooperative unified population produces the smaller earlier peak. A stiff-necked uncooperative population with a foolish govt produces the later higher peak, because a voluntary lockdown will fail to stop the spread if not enforced. Too many dissenting useless opinions, combined with token compliance to early effective govt decisions to isolate. leads to failure to halt it. You opinion and heel dragging, or contrary ways do not improve the situation.

              It’s the low quality of the civil populations focus and vision to end it which produced that mess. I expected that in the USA, but I did not really expect to see such ineffectual foolishness in the UK.

              Jo saw it early in the UK case and predicted pending disaster — she was spot on! These things were predictable. What was not predictable was that the Australian population WANTED our politicians to do the right things early and impose quarantine and isolation. We did not act foolishly, we did not resist the most sane precautions, and that was a pleasant surprise. Plus we got really lucky.

              The UK have blown their foot off via electing a stumble-bum PM and party who can’t even figure out the elementary stuff still, and that’s allowed this foolish disputation claptrap about what to do? Boris is a dangerous fool, plus he still seems to have learned nothing and is oblivious to the fact that the UK never had to end up in this mess. Tens of thousands of UK voters will die because they voted for a guy who has no clue, and is a very, very slow learner. He’s not even got the excuse of a pending election constraining his actions and distracting him, he just won an election!

              Jo predicted months ago the situation would be a catastrophe in the UK if they did what they have been doing. I could also see in mid-march that the UK was performing very poorly. And as soon as you hear people arguing they shouldn’t bother with quarantine, you know for sure they’re going to suffer the worst (and are, but it’s going to get much worse).

              None of what has occurred so far, nor the very much larger infection and death toll to come in the UK needed to happen. The knowledge to limit the damage to very low levels already existed, it was available, cheap and very fast.

              There’s no excuse for the UK being in this disastrous position, except UK voters elected a dithering incompetent dud who’s learning impaired. On top, the UK has a thoroughly rubbish and dangerously incompetent public-service, and unfortunately they’re going to do much more damage to the UK voters and their families before this is over, once an effective government or else state-security plus military takeover takes away the dimwitted trash from the upper civilian ranks within the UK establishment.

              That may be what it takes to extricate the UK from this entrenched failure cycle. Let’s hope it’s not necessary in the USA as well, to end the civil political stupidity, gridlock and incompetence there. Otherwise the voters in both countries will get what they’ve had coming for so many prior bad choices, bad behaviors and internecine political polarization.

              If you want enduring civilian control of the state then you better make sure it’s strong and civics matter, and don’t indulge in endless fakery and distraction.

              Our opinions about this only matter at the ballot box. We need to vote for smart and capable civil leaders who will not allow our country to fail. Countries which allow civil political failures to be ‘normalized’, will certainly fail entirely, at some point, and then the political system will finally fundamentally change.

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    I think we too gave a grace period before closing but in their case it’s a bit like closing the gate when the horse has been gone for a week .
    There are a lot of “if only” in this sorry saga but one things for sure an early lockdown and quarantined border would have saved a lot of lives and a lot of grief not to mention money and livelihoods.
    Taiwan being the standout model for early action , the WHO has a lot to answer for as does the CCP .

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    • #
      TedM

      You are correct Robert but not like the British. Our leaders were definitely smarter, by a bit.

      45

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        SloMo had Jo snapping at his heels
        In February.
        He got there in Mid March…
        At last..
        Thanks Jo !

        813

        • #
          Peter C

          Absolutely Right Bill.

          We don’t know if Jo blog affected public policy but I think she (and we) might have.

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  • #
    tonyb

    I think people in OZ are likely given a very London centric view of Britain via the media, especially the BBC

    The vast majority of deaths are in London, care homes and hospitals where, if you die with CV you are deemed to have died from it.

    If you are outside London and don’t venture into hospitals or care homes the physical effects of cv itself are very limited.

    Our local large hospital is only half full-unheard of for this time of year. There is no panic. Buses are running. People queue patiently for shops. Takeaways are doing good business. A few other businesses such as our newsagent has just reopened. There is a very good community spirit.On the whole police have dealt with infringements with good humour.

    On Wednesday the govt will finally recognise that it is far safer to be outside in the open air than inside small houses re-infecting everyone as they go to and from work or to the shops.

    Total Lockdown s a mad policy but people obviously need to practice sensible social distancing etc when outside and everyone is certainly aware of that by now.Garden centres reopen on Wednesday.

    Obviously the govt needs to get a grip on care home deaths. That is shameful, but surely predictable that decanting elderly people with cv from hospital to care homes would have tragic consequences. It was also madness to bolt the airport door long after the covid ridden horse has galloped into the community.

    Hopefully by far the largest causes of death-not CV but cancers and heart disease-will once again be treated, instead of being shunted into the side lines whilst all attention was focused on CV. Thousands will have died of these conditions.

    Is the slight relaxation announced yesterday going to save our economy which, if severely diminished will result in many more deaths and misery than CV, through poverty, unemployment and reduced budgets? We shall see. A predicted overall 14% GDP reduction in 2020 followed by a 15% bounce back in 2021 seems unlikely to me but then I am not an expert and I would dearly like to be proved wrong.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I have been watching Boris
      He is still not 100%
      One can see the tiredness in him.
      This disease has knocked him about.
      So he is ‘running’ the show on the advice of the ‘experts’.
      And in this his Yes Minister experts
      Have shown their complete lack of expertise & incompetence.

      410

    • #
      UK-Weather Lass

      Where I live in London the attack rate of Covid-19 is bang in the middle of the averages for English regions. The lock down impacts I experienced at the beginning have been steadily reducing for the last fortnight or so with road traffic noticeably increased while pedestrian traffic has remained low. Shops and chemists meanwhile have shown a marked increase in protective gear which was not in place on day one, and hopefully such measures will be extended to all higher risk environments. Noise levels, even in open spaces, have increased suggesting more activity. My local primary hospital is now, according to my sources, thankfully underwhelmed after the panicky days of March and early April.

      As you say, tonyb, people are generally observing social distancing in ways that of themselves reduce transmission risk, and, where I am, the air is cooler and fresher overnight in mid-Spring than it has been for quite a while with warm days in sunshine mixed with colder and sometimes windier overcast days. It is pleasant to go for walk and enjoy fresh air and people need encouragement to do so safely. I have to agree with you about lock down being mad except in areas where there were higher risks e.g. larger conurbations, and specific areas of outbreak. But we didn’t have the tools to do the job and that created a panic response.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Why Lock Downs ?
        This virus does not have legs
        It does not have wings,
        It is spread by it victims
        To others who will become victims.
        So an infected victim moving around
        In crowds carries this invisible sickening gift
        To others who receive it unknowingly.

        Stopping this chain of transmission
        Is the sole Raison D’Etre of Lock Downs.

        In theory the virus in a body id destroyed in about 10 days.
        So in 14 days with everyone not interacting
        The chain is broken.

        And yes there are exceptions with longer survival times.
        That’s why the lock downs are longer.

        512

        • #
          Bright Red

          So let me see a host (Us) going 14 days with no food yep that will stop CV19 in its tracts. Oh but wait we need to go get food to survive the 14 days . Well there goes the lockdown and isolation to starve CV19 of hosts. Imagine the run on supermarkets if they announced an everybody no exception 14 day lockdown. Anarchy/mayhem would not go close to describing it. Or we could wait until everybody is fully stocked and ready to go. Might have a bit of a supply chain problem with that so would be waiting a long time.

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          • #
            RickWill

            Oh but wait we need to go get food to survive the 14 days

            We made no effort to stock the pantry, fridge or freezer when the panic buying was on. My wife did a mental check of what we had on hand and said we could easily go 14 days without need to shop.

            Even now we do one shop a week. I go with wife to lug the bags so she does not need to bother with a shopping trolley.

            I expect the vast majority of people could do one shop a fortnight if their life depended on it. Problem is everyone going to shop on lockdown day minus one would be chaotic. Better to have very orderly buying in less crowded conditions on a staggered basis. One of the key steps for Australian was assurance that there would be toilet paper and other essentials soon enough.

            My eldest son lives in the UK. He has not been to his town centre since the lock down began in the UK. He gets all provisions from a nearby corner grocer that only ever has a few customers. He buys office supplies and stuff to keep his young son amused on-line.

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            • #
              UK-Weather Lass

              Sadly my nearest corner grocer shut up shop within days of lockdown and the premises are, for the first time in my living memory, up for lease. That picture is even more demonstrably apparent in the local high street where only a tiny percentage of businesses have survived among the many that have shut down completely with lease for sale boards on many. It remains to be seen what the true damage of lockdown is, but, as for comparisons with lives that were saved, we will never know. We cannot rerun this ‘flu pandemic to see if there was a better way and I remain absolutely convinced the unprecedented lockdown in the UK has done more harm than good simply because, in respect of influenza epidemics, it has taken us into uncharted territory which no experts can justify with meaningful analysis.

              As I have said before no one can make a case for lockdown without demonstrating what would have happened with no lockdown and we cannot turn the clock back to do that. I have not been impressed by the UK government or their chosen ‘expert’ advisers and have little faith in what they say, because they have been found out on so many falsehoods thus far.

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      • #
        Steve of Cornubia

        Ahh, poor old London. Where do I begin?

        That great metrollopiss is a case study in the media’s politicisation of C-19. The MSM has launched a barrage at Boris for mixed messages (deservedly) and the attacks on him personally have been continual throughout, with his every step dissected and analysed under a microscope until a fault can be indentified or fabricated. I have no doubt that his tenure as PM is to be short-lived.

        Meanwhile, the worst-hit region of the UK has a Leftist leader, Sadiq Khan the Mayor. His ‘patch’ has been heavily affected and his performance has been abysmal. One example was his instruction for key workers to go to work – at the peak of the crisis – while at the same time reducing the number of subway trains so that those key workers were forced to continue packing in like sardines. Would you like Covid with that?

        However, like all Leftist leaders around the world, he has been largely protected by the media and his mistakes ignored, while his every word criticising Boris (i.e. blame shifting) has been gleefully amplified.

        This virus has obviously resulted in the deaths of many poor unfortunates, but the leftist media, all round the world, is making doing its best to ensure it causes the political deaths of as many conservatives as possible.

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    TedM

    Point well made Tony.

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    WXcycles

    Boris needs new advisors.

    Self reform isn’t going to happen, eventually bad govt in an emergency may end with an emergency suspension of democracy to clean out the Parliament sewer and media trash can.

    People may begin to value democratic processes and a proper civilian govt when it’s gone and they realize it was possibly worth having, protecting and preserving in a functional State. They can’t even manage to close the Euro-tunnel or drive off illegal immigrants. At least Farage had that bit right, not sure what his other views on COVID-19 are, but Boris is an indecisive and dangerous stumble-bum to have as a PM.

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  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Dr. Malcom Kendrick work as a GP attending the aged in Cheshire.
    He has just posted a new excellent post on the COVID 19 situation in his part of the UK
    A front line doctor tells what has happened in the UK with his patients dying in front of him
    “How to make a crisis far, far, worse”
    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/05/11/how-to-make-a-crisis-far-far-worse/

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    • #
      Annie

      Hmmm, very worrying. There seems to be some almost wilful ignorance being displayed and people are dying as a result.

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      An anecdotal indictment of … ?

      In my opinion, the NHS and the Government – in that order.

      Sure, the NHS is under the putative management of the Government(s) but, like schools, public transport, the police, etc it pretty much manages itself, and its first and foremost priorities are exactly the same as every branch of the public service – preserving the empires of its senior execs and ensuring the relevant union members keep their jobs, conditions and status. There are of course some real heroes in the service and many who are there to save and improve lives, just as there are stars among the ranks of the teaching staff at government schools. It’s just that the public service does not, by and large, encourage or reward that sort of thing.

      So the initially laggard response in the UK should be sheeted home, not just to Boris and co, but to all those folk within the NHS whose job it is to know about disease and pandemics. Were all those people asleep at the wheel? The good doctor who writes above admits that he himself – a so-called health professional – was still skiing in Europe -IN MARCH!!! I am no doctor nor a scaredy-cat, but I was stocking up on meds and necessities while keeping a very concerned eye on what was happening in Wuhan by that time, all by myself. Jo was of course ringing early alarm bells for us in Oz when our own health system was slumbering.

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    OriginalSteve

    Hmm….anyone got an armour piercing round handy?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/watch-skynet-robot-dog-patrols-singapores-parks-ensure-humans-are-social-distancing

    “Thus, our eyes and ears perked up when we learned that Singapore was now going to be using robot dogs to patrol public areas and make sure that citizens are keeping their distance from one another.

    “The robo-doggo officially started patrol at Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park on Friday as part of a two week trial, according to The Verge. Spot is fitted with cameras that are used to estimate the number of visitors in the park, but Singapore says it won’t collect personal data or use the video to identify individuals. Sure.

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    • #
      RickWill

      These are being tested in Australia now.

      They were two of them on demo at the MCG. One up in the stands lost its grip on the painted floor and crashed to the ground. No doubt it was able to recover but it was an awkward display and the reporter stated they needed some work. They had no trouble negotiating the steps in the stands. It appeared they were feeling for the lip on the steps.

      Really clever technology on the human distancing assessment.

      33

    • #
      Bright Red

      If they roll these out I will be using my expertise to develop countermeasures.

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    Bill In Oz

    Sweden apologises for it’s bloody stuff up !
    “Sweden apologises for failing to protect older people
    “We failed to protect our elderly. That’s really serious, and a failure for society as a whole.” Sweden’s government has apologised for not protecting older people, with 90% of the country’s Covid-19 deaths occurring in the over-70s.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/coronavirus-latest-at-a-glance-may-10

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    • #
      toorightmate

      The large majority of fatalities from CV were elderly people in all countries.
      Why is that aspect being highlighted for Sweden?

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    • #
      yarpos

      For all the anti Sweden rage they continue to track mid range in excess morbidity during Covid. Worse that some and better than others among the manic lock down States. I am sure they could have tweaked their approach to improve outcomes, what government wouldnt say that?

      The focus on Sweden just emphasis that its more about dogma and the obsession about being “right” and the inability to accept there is more than one answer to a problem. How dare they.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Sweden is failing to protect everyone. It takes just 14 to 20 days to wipe out the virus. Sweden is aiming to infect everyone apart from the aged in a slow burn averaging 570 new cases every day for the foreseeable future to avoid overwhelming their hospital system. So far 3256 deaths and 26670 cases. Only 8227 cases are resolved.

      It will be years before visitors will be permitted at aged care facilities. So they have all become prisons where old people die; maybe only ever seeing their loved ones through glass.

      I live in Victoria, Australia, which belatedly followed the Taiwanese pandemic control model. On Wednesday I will be able to visit my nearby grandchildren in their own home; no doubt with caution for a few months but with ever reducing risk of becoming a host to a deadly virus.

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Swedes will have to get used to living unable to travel
        Even to their close neighbours.

        Denmark does not want to import this disease again. They are doing so much better.
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

        Norway does not either
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

        Nor will Finland :
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/finland/

        But maybe the USA will welcome Swedes who wish to travel ?
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

        38

      • #

        Sweden is failing to protect everyone. It takes just 14 to 20 days to wipe out the virus. Sweden is aiming to infect everyone apart from the aged in a slow burn averaging 570 new cases every day for the foreseeable future to avoid overwhelming their hospital system. So far 3256 deaths and 26670 cases. Only 8227 cases are resolved.

        There’s something I can’t figure out in all this.

        I keep wondering why everyone in the media is saying that perhaps Sweden is doing it right.

        The population of Sweden is 10.3 Million and they have 3256 DEATHS from this Wuhan Virus.

        The population of Australia is 25 Million and we have less than 100 deaths.

        What have we done wrong here in Australia?

        Tony.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Shush Tony !
          Even to mention such facts
          Has some folk hyperventilating
          Then they are overcome by red thumb disease.
          :-(

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        • #
          PeterS

          Well if we are going to go by the number of deaths per population, which is really a mistake for various reasons, then Sweden is not the worst place. Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK and France are worse. Netherlands virtually the same as Sweden yet Netherlands have severe lock downs. So, it’s not that simple. Yes lock downs can and does reduce the number of deaths up front but what is not yet clear is the longer term effect as the lock downs are relaxed. Will the end result after say a year be much more aligned and the second wave hits? Only time will tell. Also, those who claim Sweden has no lock-downs are false. They do have partial lock downs albeit nothing like ours.
          Ref:
          https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

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          • #
            RickWill

            So, it’s not that simple.

            Yes it is. Go to this link:
            http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
            Then select each of the countries you state on the top chart. Carefully note the highest number of cases and compare with present.

            There are only two that stand out – UK and Sweden. Because they have NOT reduced the number of cases below the peak. Sweden because they are aiming for a slow burn for the next 5 years or so of around 600 cases per day. UK because it sabotaged its own population by allowing thousands of infected people into the country on a daily basis after the population was locked up.

            So Sweden will go on killing 80 people a day for the foreseeable future due to the arrogance of their expert advisor and UK will do likewise at a rate of about 500 a day due to arrogance and ineptness of advisers.

            Spain is the standout in this group with peak of 8000+ now down below 1000. What country locked their kids indoors for 6 weeks?

            But the list you have is the also rans. Do yourself a favour and look at Taiwan – the gold standard in pandemic response. The richest country on the planet for clear reasons.

            Even Australia is worthy amongst your list despite being slow to close borders and a few lapses. But it has cost Australia in economic terms. Taiwan hardly a blip economically – loss of a few Chinese tourists for a month or three.

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        • #
          RickWill

          What have we done wrong here in Australia?

          Enforce laws, under authority of declared emergency, that limit Australians’ freedom of movement and association/assembly. (my view on this is that there are enough twits out there that Australia needs such laws for such circumstances – the level of fines support that view)

          Likewise in most other countries apart from Sweden, where the “rules and penalties” are stricter but somewhat different. For example, you cannot protect your under 16yo child from CV19 exposure by homeschooling without incurring a hefty fine. On the other hand, over 16yo are not permitted to go to school.

          A number of bars were closed down in Sweden because they were not following the “rules”. Admittedly the government had to pass a law that gave them the legal authority to do that.

          So Sweden has enforceable “rules” of association/assembly but Australia has enforceable “laws” – go figure.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          The only thing I can think of is whether other countries who have 2nd, 3rd & 4th waves of Cov19 will equate to the same death rate/100,000 population
          but just over a long period, whereas Sweden is doing it all in one go.

          Time will tell.

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        • #
          el gordo

          ‘What have we done wrong here in Australia?’

          Morrison listened to medical advice and called it a pandemic before WHO and now we are reaping the rewards.

          ‘But Dr Heggie warned people in the NT not to take advantage of their new freedoms.

          “Please don’t go overboard, I don’t think it’s time to do a pub crawl, don’t do a Bondi,” he said. ABC

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “It takes just 14 to 20 days to wipe out the virus.”

        We’ve gone from the provably incorrect “a month to eradicate” to “14 to 20 days to eradicate”.

        You are consistent, RickWIll, if not provably hyperbolic, and wrong.

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  • #
    Sceptical Sam

    Jo says:

    Boris needs new advisors.

    Yes. Possibly.

    More likely is that Boris needs ti read a different degree.

    This Letter to the Editor of the “Jerusalem Post” written by Mladen Andrijasevic from Beersheba makes an interesting point about Israel’s superior performance on the Covid-19 front:

    ‘The assertion by MK Ofer Shelah (Yesh Atid-Telem) that “government action had nothing to do with the country’s success in the battle against the novel coronavirus” is sheer nonsense.

    Israel has 16,314 cases and 238 deaths with the population of 9.2 million, so it has 27 deaths per million population which is ten times less than Sweden has per million.

    I just cannot imagine that Israel could tolerate 2,380 deaths, which would approach the number of deaths in the Yom Kippur war.

    How to explain such numbers? Israel imposed strict restrictions early on and a lockdown at the very beginning of the exponential curve. I believe that it helped that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has Master of Science degree from MIT, whereas Boris Johnson studied humanities at Oxford and Trump has a bachelor’s degree in economics from the Wharton school – so Netanyahu was much more receptive to the scientists’ advice.

    In addition, the health care providers (Maccabi for instance) monitors remotely every mildly infected person three times a day.’

    https://www.jpost.com/opinion/letters-to-editor-may-11-2020-nyt-says-nyet-to-impartiality-627544

    Perhaps Xi Jinping’s BE and Honorary LLD from Tsinghua University explains his inability to understand the significance of that which he allowed to infect the Chinese people?

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  • #
    cedarhill

    It’s always a good thing to include skeptics arguments/comments even with the emotional CV-19. This article reviews social distancing and such from a US conservative site:

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/05/social_distancing_is_snake_oil_not_science.html

    and makes the point that none of the orders/recommendations (except importation of infected people) have any basis in scientific proof as in clinical trials.

    Like it. Hate it. Maybe even get your blood pressure up which would be a good thing to temporarily stress you systems, but these issues will remain and the debate or pro-con and proof may become a blood sport.

    And one must not lose focus on epidemiological studies which are usually enormously wrong due to all the confounding acts/fact they do not include, allow, identify much less measure. Thus how millions and millions of deaths became tens of thousands (in the US) from using such things.

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    • #
      RickWill

      but these issues will remain and the debate or pro-con and proof may become a blood sport

      No they won’t. Anyone but a blind [SNIP] can see that quarantine works.

      Sure the same [SNIP] will come up with their silly reasons why one country did worse than another – like they had a more virulent strain, or they live in more congested housing, or they are in a colder climate, or whatever.

      Taiwan is the perfect example of what works. 440 cases and 6 deaths, last death in early April. Economic impact measured in points of a percent.

      US, UK and Sweden are great examples of what does not work. CV19 strategy all lead by arrogant experts believing they can do better than some backward island nation on the doorstep of China. A belief that their health care systems are second to none. That in itself is just silly because the lowest priority in handling a pandemic from the NOVEL virus is the heath care system.

      Those same experts would have no clue that Taiwan is the wealthiest nation on the planet. They are disciplined, clever and caring. Their industry is second to none. Steel productivity in Taiwan is about twice that of Japanese producers and almost an order go magnitude higher than the USA.

      [Rick please don't ruin a good argument by using emotive terms like that , as minor as they are they still end up starting a flame war with some looking for any excuse .]AD

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  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    The politics of CV19 is bigger than the disease.

    I showed before with an official Public Health England graphic how the daily deaths for CV19 is the same order as the 2015 Flu in the UK.

    Also in the 2015 flu season the majority of the deaths and the concentrations of the outbreaks were in care homes/elderly – but there was no similar attempt to politicize it as a scandal, just a calm attempt to understand.

    It’s obvious from the comments here that many people can’t to see the difference between a pointless damaging lockdown strategy when you have many hundreds of foci of infection and an already uncontainable situation, and total quarantine when you have isolated incidents or your containment area is still disease free.

    The same strategy doesn’t work in different conditions, in different countries/cultures, in different periods of history, for different diseases/vectors………..etc.

    There is no reason to believe that the original exponential growth of CV19 would continue, any more than the 2015 flu did. There is every reason to believe that the global economic damage of lockdown policies will kill far more than CV19 ever would have, and that it doesn’t solve and will protract the presence of CV19 anyway.

    “It’s almost like the swamp in the UK wants to keep the infections running as long as possible.”

    I agree with the sentiment that UK governments of all parties have long since given up doing what is in the interests of the people that voted them in . But Boris is just flailing because he allowed himself to be panicked, trapped himself into the lockdown strategy – which has no possible logical exit without making the original justification so obviously wrong. So now he is fiddling, making stuff up on the hoof. Stupid slogan changes and circular ‘roadmaps’.

    Meanwhile the probably CV19 carrying and terrorist concealing boatloads of illegals cross the channel at 100+ a day recently – escaping CV19 in the French camps. And the UK government empties the detention centers into the community so they don’t get blamed for giving it to them it here.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-52599696
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52560093

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    • #
      toorightmate

      Politics associated with this virus has reached fever pitch with respect to New York.
      New York was absolutely stuffed by inaction on the part of Cuomo and DeBasio and yet Trump is left holding the baby.

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “New York was absolutely stuffed by inaction on the part of Cuomo and DeBasio”

        When the Health Commissioner (and de Blasio and Mark Levine) of NYC tells the populace to go out and celebrate Chinese New Year and dismisses coronavirus out of hand as “fear mongering”…

        When Cuomo signs orders that prevent nursing homes from testing new patients or denying entry to positive COVID-19 patients…

        It was far more deleterious than inaction.

        144

  • #
    Aaron Christiansen

    To all pro-lock down advocates, a question:

    What causes the seasonal flu (a virus) to come and then go away every year, given we do not enforce a lock down for it?

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    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      we do not enforce a lock down for it?

      Silly assertion. Silly question, Aaron.

      The answer: No, we don’t.

      Why?

      Because we have a vaccine that gives herd immunity. That’s what herd immunity is all about.

      When/if we get a vaccine for Covid-19 we won’t do lock-down either.

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        “Because we have a vaccine”

        A vaccine causes the seasonal flu to appear (“come”, which it has to do before it can “go”).

        What a curious answer to what you claim to be a silly question.

        A vaccine.

        Causes seasonal flu to appear.

        No wait.

        A vaccine, that provides herd immunity, causes seasonal flu to come.

        Goodness.

        Imagine writing that but prefacing it by saying “asking what causes seasonal flu to come and go is a silly question”.

        If my question was silly, what is an answer that says, “A vaccine that provides herd immunity causes seasonal flu to come.”

        I mean really?

        Did you think about your answer before you wrote it?

        A vaccine that provides herd immunity causes seasonal flu to come.

        - Sceptical Sam, May 11, 2020

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          You are not a serious contributor.

          I’m happy to debate a serious contribution but not a troll.

          Bugger off.

          712

        • #
          Orson

          In Addition, flu bugs are generally reworking of immune-experienced infections.

          Covid19 is new and novel and we have no prior actual exposure to it. Hence, the long term kidney, heart, lung and neurological effects are unknown and possibly dire or lifelong disabilities, and thus it is more like polio.

          Even treating it is novel because the Chinese treated it like a flu and almost exclusively a lung threat. I’m isn’t. You cannot wish away its bizarre damage, even neuropsychological damages. If it were in any sense familiar, epic mistakes would not be made.

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          • #
            MrGrimNasty

            There have been several novel zoonotic viruses in recent years with unusual unpleasant lethal effects, they all ran their course, disappeared or subsided to inconsequential levels, and never reached the ‘model’ predictions of doom from the very same sources……

            There is no reason to believe CV19 would not have been self limiting just as most corona viruses, in theory disrupting it could be merely prolonging it and allowing it to infect/kill more.

            Looks like ‘herd immunity’ threshold could be very low:-

            https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/11/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/

            More hilarity from Boris just now – he’s made up a CV19 alert/warning system 1-5, and announced he saved us from the worst level.

            https://youtu.be/KOO5S4vxi0o

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            • #
              OriginalSteve

              A comment was made, I forget where, that in Italy in 2019, a new flu vaccine that had H1N1, along with 3 other pathogens in it.

              Apparently this may have actually sensitized the population to coronavirus.

              US Defence finding of similar issue:

              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31607599

              “Vaccine. 2020 Jan 10;38(2):350-354. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.10.005. Epub 2019 Oct 10.
              “Influenza vaccination and respiratory virus interference among Department of Defense personnel during the 2017-2018 influenza season.

              “CONCLUSIONS:
              “Receipt of influenza vaccination was not associated with virus interference among our population. Examining virus interference by specific respiratory viruses showed mixed
              results. Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus; however, significant protection with vaccination was
              associated not only with most influenza viruses, but also parainfluenza, RSV, and non-influenza virus coinfections.

              61

        • #
          el gordo

          Influenza is latitudinal and hibernates in summer to emerge in winter.

          11

    • #
      sophocles

      Low rates of Vitamin D 3 across the population with roughly 83% – 86% having levels in either deficiency or extreme deficiency is the reason for the seasonality of illnesses which such as influenza which inflict Acute Respiratory Tract Infections on their victims.

      see: Sabetta et al; “Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and the Incidence of Acute Respiratory Tract Infections in Healthy Adults”; 2010. (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0011088 )
      and:
      Juzeniene et al: “The seasonality of pandemic and non-pandemic influenzas: the roles of solar radiation and vitamin D”; 2010. (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47634808_The_seasonality_of_pandemic_and_non-pandemic_influenzas_The_roles_of_solar_radiation_and_vitamin_D/link/00463529dd2b942265000000/download)

      and:
      Youssef et al: “Vitamin D’s potential to reduce the risk of hospital acquited infections.”; 2012
      (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3427196/)

      There are, not unexpectedly, a rush of papers in the medical pre-print servers (https://medRxiv.org) (Yale). One could count the number of papers submitted re Covid-19 and Vitamin D; it might be rather surprising.

      The medical specialists know the literature (just bear in mind the papers on the preprint servers haven’t completed peer review yet) so why are governments not using the science?

      Maybe some hard questions need to be asked.

      The papers I’ve linked to are not recent. They are part of the scientific literature and have been for a decade. So the Swedish government should be apologizing to its elderly.

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      • #
        Aaron Christiansen

        I linked to an Indonesian study pre-print the other day re: Vit D and covid-19. Naturally, it has 2 red thumbs. I mention the thumbs as they amuse me, nothing more. Perhaps, as I just discovered, it’s because the study had already been posted as an article by Jo previously.

        I find it somewhat disheartening you are so ready to post links to studies but end your reply with a statement like “Sweden need to apologize to their elderly”.

        Not only are there any number of countries / states/ districts the world over who have equal (or even greater) %s of deaths from elderly / nursing homes, whether they locked down or not, or who created an environment significantly worse for their nursing home residents (Cuomo in NYC) but in your haste to join the anti-Sweden group-think you missed Sweden at least admitting their failure to protect their elderly. Not something I have seen any other country do. Difficult to explain this any other way than adherence to an ideology. Sweden bad. Lock down good. Who cares about the data.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Hey Aaron ! Listen up !
          SWEDEN HAS APOLIGISED
          (Past tense )

          06

        • #
          sophocles

          I did NOT miss Sweden apologising to its elderly: they damned well need to. My government failed in this area too. I’ve yet to write to my Prime Minister but I will. In fact, very few governments did not. Those who did well just happened to be the owners of the world’s larger fishing fleets: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Norway. I’ll leave it as an exercise for the student to figure out why.

          Who cares about the data? Let’s look at some data, shall we?

          New Zealand:
          pop : 4.8m
          cases: 1497
          deaths: 21 (maybe 16 of those deaths could have been prevented … but weren’t.)

          Death rate: 4 per million.

          Australia:
          pop: 26.5m (+/- a bit)
          cases: 6,970
          deaths 97
          Death rate: 4 per million.

          Sweden:
          pop: 10.9 million
          cases: 26,670
          deaths: 3,256
          Death rate: 322 per million.

          There is the evidence — a government at war with its people.
          So I was in haste to join the anti-Sweden group, was I? No, I don’t care. I’m just really glad that I’m not Swedish. There are the Facts, consider them.

          11

          • #
            Aaron Christiansen

            You: “So the Swedish government should be apologizing to its elderly.”
            Me: They did already, you must have missed it
            You: “I did NOT miss Sweden apologising to its elderly: they damned well need to.”

            So just to get this straight, Sweden should be doing something you know they already did. And despite already apologising, they “need” (present / future tense) to, not “needed” (past tense) to?

            Um. Ok?

            [cherry picked data snip]
            “There is the evidence — a government at war with its people.”

            Qualitatively, I consider a government that treats its population like adults to be not at war with its people.

            It is curious, is it not, that “I consider” is what I say. Implying it’s an opinion, what I think, and not a fact.

            The tone of your claim is entirely “this is a fact”.

            War.

            Interesting use of emotive language and imagery.

            01

    • #
      RickWill

      AC asked:

      What causes the seasonal flu (a virus) to come and then go away every year, given we do not enforce a lock down for it?

      A large proportion of the world is vaccinated against seasonal flu. My wife gets a shot every year; including this year. It is not fully effective because there are various strains and they are changing. The level of impact depends on the level of vaccination and the virulence of the strain that gets into populations around the globe from time-to-time. The hosts either die or become immune; that typically takes three or four months. So some with vaccine are already immune; those still kicking that had that season are now immune; warmer, sunnier drier weather makes it more difficult for the virus to transfer. So as summer comes on the virus has less opportunity to find a new receptive host, albeit many are already immune.

      Broadly the developed world has the hospital capacity to cope with seasonal flu and treat those cases that develop into something that is not treatable at home.

      SARS -CoV – 2 is so named because it is a NOVEL virus. Novel means new:
      https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/novel

      new and original, not like anything seen before

      It has nothing to do with a story book.

      So there is no previous human experience with this NOVEL virus. Once the world saw China locking people in Wuhan while building a massive new hospital in Wuhan just to handle CoVID19 cases they should have been alerted to the deadly nature of this NOVEL virus. If you go back to posts on their blog in early February you will see Jo Nova was advocating for isolation from China from that period. If all countries had done that then there would be just a few cases in China now; business as usual across the globe.

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    • #
      Aaron Christiansen

      I see replies and insults but still no answer to my question: what causes seasonal flu to come and go given we do not enforce a lock down for it?

      Emphasis added in case people miss the “come” = “appear” bit. Other questions might include, “Where does the flu come from each year?”

      To the poor sod saying I am not a serious contributor, who also called a question, “silly” but then answered it tragically (as others have – I would strenuously disagree that a vaccine would cause the flu to “come”) I would say this: Science is the process of seeing something and then asking, “Why is it so?”

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      • #

        I’d say you are not very serious if you are asking a bunch of people on a blog post to answer a specific question that is addressed in thousands of research papers. WHy not look up the current state of knowledge and provide insightful observations and genuine questions rather than tragically transparent provocations.

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        • #
          Aaron Christiansen

          I note you mention, “1000s of research papers” yet did not / cannot link to one. Typical. I see the same confidence in the many, many comments from people here who could not possibly know the end score before the end of a game yet post as if their word is gold. The people who don’t denigrate Sweden are the ones who write “It might be” or “It’s possible”, indicating a reluctance to say “I know”.

          One hypothesis I have is that people are not interested in the truth, and the answers here go some way to proving it.

          Nobody is willing to say, “I don’t know”. Well. I am. I don’t know (despite the reading I have done in the past month or so) where the flu comes from each year, nor what makes it come and go. I know 4 hypotheses, but even scientists are reticent to say unequivocally, “this is the reason why.”

          My insightful observations have been the official Swedish numbers – in particular the declining deaths/day that nobody cares is happening because “Sweden bad”.

          The question itself is genuine. Your reply insinuates you know what level of knowledge the people participating here have, very confidently. I don’t, and thus the question to “a bunch of people on a blog”.

          I’m very serious and very curious as to what makes the flu come and go. Apparently stating that as a question is silly, and “not very serious”.

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          • #
            el gordo

            New strains of flu emerge from Asia and south east Asia.

            Do we all carry influenza in our system full time?

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          • #

            get on web of science and use keywords. It is not my job to hand feed you everything you should have done before commenting

            10

            • #
              Aaron Christiansen

              “get on web of science and use keywords. It is not my job to hand feed you everything you should have done before commenting”

              Ah yes the common refrain of the incapable.

              My latest reading was viral trade-off evolution, but you know, carry on with your inability to back any of your claims with evidence.

              00

              • #

                you made an argument based on the fact that you didn’t know about something and asked others to tell you about it. How about try catching up. At the very least did you google

                “What causes the seasonal flu”

                DO you want me to do so for you and provide links and interpretation? Do you want me to go to original texts that back up the googled web pages. If so that is a pathetic piece of trolling by yourself.

                00

              • #
                Aaron Christiansen

                “you made an argument based on the fact that you didn’t know about something and asked others to tell you about it. ”

                Actually, I only asked a question. At no point have I ever said I didn’t know about something. That is entirely your reading comprehension playing tricks on you. I certainly would not say “I know why” – not even scientists say that sort of thing.

                This is a website run by a microbiologist.

                Asking a question about a virus would seem entirely relevant. Please feel free to continue to be upset at me, I’ll leave you to have the last word.

                01

              • #
                el gordo

                Mr Leaf the question before us is relevant, we have to isolate ourselves from Asia if we are to avoid future flu epidemics.

                10

              • #
                Aaron Christiansen

                “Mr Leaf the question before us is relevant, we have to isolate ourselves from Asia if we are to avoid future flu epidemics.”

                I found it curious that the WHO have now produced propaganda a video that says they warned the world about a pandemic.

                @ 14s in to the video, the speaker says, “A devastating epidemic can start in any country at any time and kill millions of people”.

                I am not advocating isolating ourselves from Asia per se, however I am trying to remember the pandemics that started in Australia, or NZ, or… Sweden.

                10

              • #
                el gordo

                Australia can isolate quickly when we hear of an outbreak, a novel strain emerging with seasonal flu. I imagine Beijing will be more compliant once the fog lifts on Covid-19 and we expect China to become the early warning system.

                https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/biological-sciences-articles/where-does-the-flu-come-from-every-year

                00

              • #
                Aaron Christiansen

                “Australia can isolate quickly when we hear of an outbreak, a novel strain emerging with seasonal flu.”

                Yes, we can isolate from external migration, however given the very high % of asymptomatic cases for this one, and the recent reports that COVID-19 may have been in France as early as Dec 27, I think the strategy needs to be proactive, rather than reactive.

                It took 4 days for an acquaintance to get test results back. The flow from overseas won’t put up with that length of time to get permission to move within the country, it’s just not feasible.

                00

      • #
        sophocles

        Sigh. I’ll try again.

        During summer, the sun is much brighter than it is in winter. Very short wavelengths of sunlight we call UVB reaches the ground in large quantities. If we expose our skin to that UVB, it will stimulate our skin to make a hormone called Cholecalciferol which is the name for Vitamin D. (If you think vitamin D was misnamed, you’re right — it was.)

        As the sun moves out of your hemisphere and into the other one, the season changes from summer to winter. Human bodies don’t make as much Vitamin D as the change takes place and during winter it makes nothing unless we actively sunbathe on sunny days, when it will make a bit depending on the latitude. Most people don’t even think about it and stay indoors where it’s warm. The vitamin D in our bodies gets used up and we go into Deficiency. That’s when Vitamin D levels fall to about 20ng/ml (20 nano-grams per milliltre of blood). This happens around late winter – early spring (before the sun is strong enough to recharge us).

        It’s when it gets that low that the body can’t resist influenzas, corona viruses and others and they start infecting us. The Sickness Season has arrived. Influenza and Corona viruses (common cold etc) can easily infect those with low levels of Vitamin D. Some of the corona viruses trigger ARTI s — Acute Respiratory Tract Infections — such as Bronchitis and Pneumonias. The Pneumonias can kill.

        As we go further into spring as the sun returns from the other hemisphere, it gets lighter and UVB (Ultra Violet B light) gets stronger and starts cooking the airborne viruses, sterilising the atmosphere. We start building vitamin a little from exposed facial skin and hands. The illnesses pack up and push off. That time is usually the end of the Sickness Season.

        That’s why these illnesses are seasonal. They bite during the dark season and are killed off as UVB gets stronger as the sunlight returns.

        Our bodies crave vitamin D, they just love it. It powers our immune systems, it extracts calcium from our food and sends it to our bones, it keeps our joints flexible and, if body levels are high enough, it can prevent cancers, and it does lots of other very useful things as you can find out at vitamindwiki.com, it’s worth exploring.

        Vitamin D doses are measured in IU (International Units) and to boost your immune systems you will need to take 4000 – 10,000 IU per day. You can make 15,000 to 20,000 IU from sunning for 30mins around solar noon when UVB is at it’s most intense. Don’t use a sunscreen. It blocks UVB. Do watch your skin carefully so you don’t sunburn.

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          Bill In Oz

          Well explained Sph !
          But you are too patient.
          Why not let Aaron look it up for himself ?

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            sophocles

            Why not let Aaron look it up for himself ?

            acquired Helpless Syndrome. He didn’t get it from my first post.

            His problem is one of language — he’s learnt English to quite a good level but I get the feeling he’s still thinking in his mother tongue, so he’s running a double translation rather than absorbing the idiom of fluent english speakers: think->translate->write and read->translate-> think. So I tried to give single concept sentences rather than the usual multi-concept ones we’re so used to.

            Give the man credit: he’s doing very well, better than I could do, but he’s not truly bilingual yet. Our error was to not take that into account, so I’ve tried. I will be watching for a further response from him to see if I succeeded. His question is a fair one and deserving of a `lingually lucid’ response.

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              Aaron Christiansen

              “acquired Helpless Syndrome. He didn’t get it from my first post.”

              Correct. I “got it” from the reading conducted before I posted my question.

              In your haste to ridicule someone, you ignored the fact that I told you I had already posted a study here regarding Vit D vs COVID-19 mortality 2 days before your comment.

              But there’s still a flaw in your reasoning. I asked, “why does the flu come and go”.

              All you have described, and I read your comments (completely, hoping to find the info I was looking for, to no avail), is an immune response to lowered UV-induced Vit D production.

              You have said absolutely nothing about the flu virus itself, the most important detail in my question. I even gave a hint in another post, where I posed a further question, “Where does the flu virus come from?”

              A compromised immune system does not generate a flu virus. So why does the flu come (and go)? If the flu virus is, as you believe, “killed off as UVB gets stronger as the sunlight returns.” how does it then return again later, given that it has been “killed off”?

              One possible explanation is what el gordo asks above,

              Do we all carry influenza in our system full time?

              Perhaps this will open your mind to what I am asking. Perhaps not. I hope so, I am honestly curious and looking for / asking for discussion. You appear to be capable of responding reasonably, even though it’s coated with insult.

              I hope people will not say el gordo’s question is silly, although red thumbs present shows that mentality already. It fits the data – our immune system mirrors apparent sunlight exposure, and the flu season is half a season after that. Is there another explanation? Suppressed immune system is only part of an answer.

              Someone else told me to do my own research and read studies, as if it was something I had not done, so confident in his assertion. That I was not serious for asking the question on a blog.

              Perhaps, just perhaps, I had done plenty of reading and research, and sought other opinions and discussion, on a website maintained by .. a microbiologist.

              The reason I did not offer my own suggestions to start with, is that I have found in the past when you open a discussion with X, Y and Z, that it is very easy to colour the discussion from the start based on what you have said. So my preference is to leave a blank canvas, and let others start to sketch in some details.

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                el gordo

                ‘ … even though it’s coated with insult.’

                Settle down, it was an honest question from an ignorant man.

                ‘Suppressed immune system is only part of an answer.’

                I tend to agree and everyone is working feverishly to discover the answer. Do you think it possible to eliminate new strains of influenza reaching Australia?

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                Aaron Christiansen

                “Settle down, it was an honest question from an ignorant man.”

                I wouldn’t consider you ignorant at all.

                sophocles suggests I have “acquired helpless syndrome”. It is that answer to which I was referring when I said it was insulting.

                “Do you think it possible to eliminate new strains of influenza reaching Australia?”

                I would say no, Australia relies too much on Chineseoverseas $$, especially to pay for court costs and staff budget overruns and the mirage of a good economy thanks to massive property investment. To think I read early on during this pandemic a millennial celebrating a drop in housing prices that would allow them to “compete” in the market. Such optimism! Myopic, misguided optimism…

                Let’s face it. The first thing Dan Andrews did when this started and people, in fear (but not the kind he could control) stopped going to Chinese restaurants:
                1. said “We stand with Chinese communities”
                2. offered to light up Melbourne landmarks in red and gold
                3. intends to lead a delegation of 100 businesses to China to “strengthen trade relations”
                4. is going to host a dinner for Chinese diplomatic, business and student leaders

                Not to forget he has signed Victoria up to the Belt and Road initiative (that even the deep red ABC is prepared to call, “controversial”).

                There is no hope of stopping anything coming back from China, let alone overseas in general.

                The Cedar meats COVID-19 outbreak happened at the same time as they were shipping mutton to Wuhan (April 9) for below cost on a back load of a plane that brought (allegedly) 90 tonne of PPE gear from China.

                No. I would suggest there is sweet FA hope of stopping anything coming back from overseas.

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                el gordo

                The 2017 flu was one of those irregular occasions when a new strain jumps on the world stage and becomes a pandemic.

                https://theconversation.com/heres-why-the-2017-flu-season-was-so-bad-86605

                We can prevent this happening and save $30 billion a year in lost wages and productivity. All flights from China would come to a halt and passengers coming from elsewhere need to be tested before entering Australia.

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    dinn, rob

    then after that, then after that, then after that
    1,024 documented cases of prisoners of conscience in 11 months in China, 2019
    https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/05/1024-documented-cases-of-prisoners-of.html

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    Craig

    mmmmmmm………nature has an interesting way of the culling the herd, so to speak. Either Boris’s advisors are stupid at their core or they are deliberately malicious. Take your pick.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Note the theme – tracking, tracking and more tracking.

    Coronavirus appears to be the excuse to instutute tracking if the population in a “1984″-style “never ending /perpetual war”

    People should freak out when electronic wristbands are suggested….its digital slave ownership by the State.

    If Fauci is suggesting it, its appears to be just the globalist agenda at work.

    Fauci and Gates, appear to be joined at the hip.

    “Public health experts warn such a system could be unreliable and dangerous and might even force desperate people to seek out the disease.

    “An ‘immunity’ passport, smartphone code or a wristband

    “The UK, which has one of the highest death tolls in the world, was among the first to discuss the idea of issuing certificates.
    ……..
    “Italians, who have endured the world’s longest lockdown, might face mandatory blood tests to set up a similar system.

    “And Anthony Fauci from the White House coronavirus task force told CNN on April 10 a certificate system was being discussed for Americans too.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-immunity-certificates-uk-eleanor-riley-a9444656.html

    “Giving immunity certificates to former coronavirus patients would be “dangerous”, a scientist has warned.

    “Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh, said the documents – suggested by the government – would give people a “sense of false security” about the virus.

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    yarpos

    Friends of ours got stranded in Tasmania as the virus broke out and links were cut. About a month ago they came back after being encouraged to leave by the State government. They were a bit puzzled on arrival when they drove off the ferry in Melbourne, no officials, no direction or advice of any kind. Just assorted people from everywhere all driving off into the suburbs. Thankfully it was before the Burnie outbreak.

    They took it on themselves to just go home and self isolate for two weeks. I think they would probably be the exception rather than the rule though.

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    joseph

    Another interesting article . . . . and includes a link to the CDC site . . . . the Public Health Advisor (Quarantine Program) . . . . dated 11/15/2019 . . . .

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/05/bill-sardi/modern-medicine-attempts-to-closet-hydroxychloroquine-hcq-forgo-targeted-therapy-of-high-risk-groups-in-setup-for-mass-vaccination/

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    • #
      TdeF

      And once again the benefits far outweigh the risks of hydroxychlorquine and the risks are treatable but as Donald Trump pinned hopes on it, the media seem determined to prove him wrong.
      As with everything else.

      Never has a US president been so universally hated by the universally very left media, including Australia and the UK. And there is never a bad word to say about Macron or Merkel or Biden.

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        Joe

        Trump has probably retweeted about every ‘cure’ that has been mentioned in social media to date, including ingesting disinfectant and irradiating the body with UV light. He has never articulated any sort of understanding of how these cures might work. At least this way, assuming some cure comes to light, he and his fanbois can say he was right to ‘foresee’ this or ‘pin his hopes on this’. I think he has at least stopped ‘pinning his hopes’ on the disinfectant one. Don’t forget, he’s just the president, he’s not some science or medical genius.

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          robert rosicka

          Joe your chosen reference source for Trump must be the likes of the ABC or NYT , show me anywhere he has said exactly what you claim he said .
          Asking a question of a scientist is not proof of anything .
          And by the way most of what you claim he said actually has a basis in science if you dare look beyond the MSM for your facts .

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    • #
      Peter C

      Chris Gilham conclusion: Quarantine is very effective at suppressing Influenza and also Covid19.

      Therefore it probably works for the common cold as well.

      I usually get a severe cold each year in autumn or spring. Probably I can avoid that. I am going to try some simple isolation ideas from now on including wearing a mask on public transport. And lost of hand sanitising.

      Also Vit C, Vit D3 and zinc (just in case).

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    TdeF

    My idea was to eliminate the virus and we have nearly succeeded, despite the naysayers.

    The major outbreaks were both a result of someone in high places breaking the rules, the Ruby Princess and the appalling Cedar Meat case. They should both be criminal investigations but governments will protect their own. That’s how crony politics works.

    When you have zero cases for three weeks, in principle there is no virus in your country. The question remains of how to open when there is a risk. The only answer is small groups and geographical isolation for another three weeks. Rapid travel is a 20th century development but it is not essential for business. International shipping and country to city freight is working well in all countries.

    What is in question is local mass transit and air travel and a retail therapy called ‘shopping’. I can only suggest that everyone on public transport has to wear masks and disposable gloves. That would drop the risk massively, especially the gloves.

    The idea of groups of five makes real sense as the risk goes as the square of the number of people in a cluster. And it will be great to have restaurants able to host at least family groups.

    The big things which will be missing for a long time are international tourism and mass spectator events. Two things can give certainty, a really good cheap fast test and innoculation.

    My hope would be one a good, fast test. While that would enable international travel, it is no protection and who would want to go to a country where the virus was still common?

    As for tourism, Australians will have to go and see Australia and New Zealand and perhaps the South Pacific. I can heartily recommend New Caledonia and Tahiti for a piece of France. And with testing, we can welcome tourists as well.

    Italy, Europe, exotic locations will have to wait a year or two. Compared to the restrictions of WW2, that’s nothing. In fact the South Pacific, a very exotic area for most of the Northern Hemisphere will be a magnet for tourists for the same reason. It will be virus free.

    So prepare for massive international tourist demand. Especially tourist ships. We need more dock facilities. And more coastal ports able to accept big ships. The next Northern winter will be a boom time.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The Cruise ships industry is dead and beyond resurrection In the near future.
      And I doubt any Australian town or port would welcome a cruise ship unless
      Al passengers & crew were tested & proved negative.

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      GD

      Compared to the restrictions of WW2, that’s nothing

      Confined at home, mainly because I didn’t want to cop a fine from Daniel Andrews’ brownshirts, I endeavoured to work on music projects for myself.

      The five work projects I had going at the beginning of April disappeared the day the lockdown was announced. Clients had their gigs cancelled, subsequently, my arranging/recording work was put on hold or cancelled.

      A good time to work on music that I want write, record etc. And money aside, it is good. No pressure, apart from the bank account.

      Still there is only so much music you can process in one day. So, while I can stream services such as Netflix, Foxtel et al, for some weird reason I found myself checking the FTA TV program each day.

      Thanks to FTA TV, I’ve now watched the whole series of James Bond movies. I feel I am somewhat of an expert on James Bond movies.

      Next on FTA TV came the war movies, especially the WWII movies.

      I’ve seen all the movies from my generation, such as the ‘Great Escape’ and ‘From Here To Eternity’, but it was the recent WWII movies that shocked me, moved me and made me realise just how fortunate we, in 2020, are.

      Films like ’1917′ ‘Saving Private Ryan’ and ‘Hacksaw Ridge’.

      Today in 2020, we are experiencing a health pandemic that requires us to stay at home. That’s it. There is a slight shortage of grocery products. That’s it.

      My eighty-nine year old Mum was born in 1930, at the beginning of the Great Depression. Her childhood was spent living with food rationing and scarcity. Her teen years were encompassed by WWII.

      Although, during the war there were some bright moments. Mum was a student at Brisbane’s Somerville House when the US Army took over the school for their organisational base. The girls were moved off site, but not too far as to be unable to observe the young American men resplendent in their uniforms. This was a source of teenage titillation apparently.

      Nonetheless, it was a time of shortage. It wasn’t until the fifties that her generation were able to live life as we know it.

      So no matter how inconvenient or annoying these lockdown directives are, remember, it’s not the Great Depression or WWII.

      https://www.ozatwar.com/ozatwar/basesection3.htm

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    Richard Ilfeld

    Across the English speaking world, we share a common language, but words certainly don’t mean the same thing.
    A lockdown in Australia keeps the damn virus an ocean away.
    A lockdown in the US restricts the deaths to Old Age homes, meat packing plants, and our three largest urban areas.

    If you (impossibly, of course) excise them from the data, we are ruining the US economy for a statistically invisible enemy.

    I think we have shown that, without a solid test, quarantine within an economy as free and heterogeneous as the US is impossible.
    Shutting the borders has also proven only nominal — there were some 40,00 transits from China after closure.

    Australia, with lower density and (as viewed from a great distance) greater social social cohesion, and better defined borders, has managed.

    SO now, the US, if it is to remain a viable economy, will have to live with COVID-19. In red America, we’ll manage. In Blue America, they’ll manage too.
    It would be wonderful if we could be brought together by the need to manage together.

    The UK will likely muddle through….they always have. Australia may well prosper. China will prosper, but by rights should be a pariah and held at arms length by
    the civilized; it already seems clear in the states that the globalist community shares the Chinese view of the values of an individual citizen and is back full on to
    the track they were following before.

    The sun will come up tomorrow.

    People have come a long way in a short time. My grandfather was born before the invention of either the automobile or the airplane, yet lived to see man walk on the moon.
    I was born before the end of the second World War, yet by my middle age cities that had not a building standing nor a citizen not on welfare were the commercial leaders of the world.

    All of our physical resources are intact. In most of our country (countries) outside of a few defined areas, the deaths are not statistically visible as a fraction of the population. If you catch the virus, which I would not wish on anyone, and are young and healthy, you are likely to be OK. IF you are old and sick, you are not and should govern yourself accordingly.

    Our leaders have failed us; they are, for the most part, irrational, narcissistic, and self-serving; looking now to bend this to their own political advantage.

    THIS TELLS YOU THEY HAVE MEASURED THE RISK! The are not afraid any more; why are they trying to keep us afraid. We have either, as Australia, beaten this thing and can get on with life or have as in the US accommodated it to our other priorities.

    COVID-19 is now less of a problem than a political leadership that has failed. From either the left, the center, or the right, it is time now for the post-war rebuilding.
    If you are not up to it, get the hell out of the way.

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      Bill In Oz

      Richard, it would be more courteous if you wrote or your own country
      And your own leadership rather than also including Australia in your prognostications.
      But you did not so I will return the favour.

      We here in Oz have just about beaten this bloody CCP virus and starting to open up again on that basis.
      By contrast the USA has not done so. But under the misplaced direction of your president, is now opening up again with the virus waiting for you to do exactly that.

      I said misplaced. Yes ‘misplaced’. Why ? Because he is running is being “Homo Economicus” : instead of a Home Sapiens.

      Good luck there in the USA Richard !
      I suspect that we here in Oz & New Zealnd will preserve our normal lives and be the envy of many on the planet

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      • #
        Richard Ilfeld

        Captain Philip would be proud.

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        Kalm Keith

        :-)
        Little Sir Echo.
        :-)

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        You can’t be Sirius.

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        sophocles

        Bill in Oz said:

        I suspect that we here in Oz & New Zealnd will preserve our normal lives and be the envy of many on the planet

        … we’ve got to get through our Sickness Season in August/September yet. The northern Hemisphere is through theirs. So let’s not get too cocky until we see how ours pans out.

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          Bill In Oz

          Sophocles, you forget, the flu season is fuelled by travellers from overseas. And this year there are very, very few of them at all.

          And as Jacinda did the same in NW, you will benefit from that same quarantine there in Kiwiland.

          Aren’t you lucky ?

          We are !
          ;-)

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            sophocles

            No, I don’t forget, there are still Australian citizens out there yet to come home, and the same applies for New Zealand citizens. Two weeks quarantine maybe long enough for Covid but what about a flu virus?

            Do you know their full progress?
            Stage by stage?
            Would they be picked up or ignored by any Covid test?

            I don’t know.

            What would the attitude be?
            “it’s not covid-19, off you go!”

            The main disadvantage for the flu viruses is that they are not as easy to catch.
            Even so, you would be relying on luck.

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              Bill In Oz

              Sophocles I have a friend who arrived home in Sydney yesterday.She is now in quarantine for 2 weeks.
              After that she will be able to return to Adelaide.

              For the last 6 weeks she has been in Cremona Italy helping the COVID sick in one of that city’s hospitals.
              My awareness of this disease is greatly influenced by her facebook posts of what she saw & did in Cremona.

              Her personal witnessing stands in complete & utter contrast to all the nay sayers on this blog.

              And as for Flu, two weeks is more than long enough to recover from a flu. The flu bugs will also be dead by the time she is allowed to go home.

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      Aaron Christiansen

      Curiously, Switzerland are easing their lock down a month early.

      They are seeking to “learn to live with the virus”.

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  • #

    The only serious question is whether Covid19 should be considered a bad flu, a mild flu, or just a cold virus, with the last looking better and better as more information becomes available.

    In NZ the average person classed (very loosely) as a “Covid death” is 80 years and has multiple comorbities, with advanced Alzheimers featuring strongly – it is questionable whether these died from Covid19 or from the trauma of being moved to a different hospital and then being deprived of all visits from their loved ones in their last weeks. The Prime Minister and government officers constantly reiterate at their Press Briefings that covid19 CAN be a very serious illness, especially for those who are already very ill. In fact there is no certainty anyone has died of coronavirus this year.

    This is a typical official statement:

    “Sadly today, I have another Covid-19 related [sic] death to report. [...] The person who passed away [...] had underlying health conditions and was considered a probable case of covid-19 due to her clinical presentation and past exposure history despite testing negative.”

    Do me a favour …

    There have been no deaths of careworkers, or of people flying into New Zealand on flights where NO social distancing is practiced. Once it became clear that there weren’t whole plane loads of people becoming very sick and dying people should have suspected some degree of beatup at least.

    “Oh yes, but overseas …”

    Numbers are hugely inflated in countries like the UK and the US by attributing, as in New Zealand, ALL deaths to COVID-19 where the patient tests positive or shows symptoms or there is some other reason, often very suspect, for doing so. The example of high mortality in countries like Italy is not what it seems:

    – A key study from Italy found that 99% of those who have died had other illnesses and almost half had three or more co-morbidities.
    – Northern Italy is the most polluted region of Europe, with high rates of pneumonia every year.
    – Italy has the highest antibiotic resistance in Europe. In fact, data from the Italian authorities show that around 80% of the deceased were treated with antibiotics, indicating bacterial superinfections (the deaths would still be recorded as being due to coronavirus).

    Epidemiological studies show that the virus is wide-spread, usually asymptomatic and thus generally not dangerous. Lethality is far lower than previously claimed, in the range of a bad flu, at worst. The Finnish epidemiology professor Mikko Paunio from the University of Helsinki has evaluated several international studies in a working paper and comes to a Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.1% or less (i.e. in the area of seasonal influenza) https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/How-the-World-got-Fooled-by-COVID-ed-2c.pdf

    A study from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford found that the lethality of covid19 (IFR) is between 0.1% and 0.36% (i.e. in the range of a severe influenza). In people over 70 years of age with no serious preconditions, the mortality rate is expected to be less than 1%. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

    Lord Sumption: “COVID-19 is not the greatest crisis in our history. It is not even the greatest public health crisis in our history. But the lockdown is without doubt the greatest interference with personal liberty in our history.”

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      GD

      The only serious question is whether Covid19 should be considered a bad flu, a mild flu, or just a cold virus

      I’d rather have a bad flu or a cold, than die from a virus that makes me feel like I’m drowning in my lungs and cannot breathe.

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      • #

        I’m sorry you’ve had that experience – are you sure it wasn’t pneumonia you were suffering from?

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        Aaron Christiansen

        “I’d rather have a bad flu or a cold, than die from a virus that makes me feel like I’m drowning in my lungs and cannot breathe.”

        Whereas a cardiac surgeon who has actually had the flu and COVID-19 says the opposite – he’d prefer COVID-19.

        He was sick, had a fever, intestinal problems, did not eat and was constantly asleep. Nevertheless, it is still worth noting that coronavirus is a type of flu. “Even though I have been criticized for it, I do not change my position. When I compare the flu I had three years ago when I was dying with coronavirus, it was easier. It is necessary to realize that 1,500 patients died of the flu last year alone, “says Professor Jan Pirk in an exclusive interview for EuroZprávy.cz.

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      sophocles

      There is one statistic which is still missing and should be collected: the level of calcidiol in the person before they died and a report of everything done to raise it to immunologically useful levels.

      You might find https://vitamindwiki.com/Alzheimers-Cognition+-+Overview interesting. Lots of information there. One point to remember: Vitamin D is NOT a vitamin, it is a hormone which runs our immune systems, and our calcium chemistry (bones and teeth). Why do most of our body’s cells have Vitamin D receptors? (or calcidiol receptors) if it is not important? Why do our lungs need vitamin D to block the entry of invasive viruses and to repair the damage caused by those viruses? …

      Our immune systems use it to manufacture so-called “naturally-occurring human antibiotics” within our bodies. Individuals with low vitamin D cannot manufacture their own antibiotics and anti-virals. What happens next doesn’t require a degree in rocket science.

      Our lungs process vitamin D. Insufficient vitamin D and they can’t block the viruses.
      Our brains process vitamin D. Insufficient vitamin D available for the brain and hello: Alzheimer’s.

      Alzheimer’s is more of a symptom of Vitamin D deficiency than a mere “comorbidity” or anything else.
      Bronchitis and Pneumonias from Corona viruses are the same. Even a corona virus infection is a red flag for low vitamin D.

      You casually reference “advanced Alzheimers” as a “comorbidity.” Let’s be honest here: those individuals were more likely to have been infected and killed by ignorance than anything else.

      For your enjoyment:
      “Vitamin D’s potential to reduce the risk of hospital-acquired infections.” Youssef et al (especially those resistant to most antibiotics …)

      Do enjoy what you find at vitamindwiki.com about Alzheimers.

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        sophocles

        You should ask yourself just why Australia and New Zealand fared so much more lightly than the rest of the world.

        Sunshine, and the sunshine hormone.

        The virus arrived towards the end of our Southern Hemisphere summer. In the Northern Hemisphere it had a field day because most of the northern hemisphere countries were in the Dark months — their Sickness Season.

        The warnings are there in the literature — when are governments going to take them fully on board? That’s the most important question, not the robustness or ruggedness of covid as an infection.

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          Bill In Oz

          If this is true
          What is happening Brazil ?
          It is a Southern Hemisphere/Tropical country with plenty of sun & vitamin D from sunlight
          yet it is in the midst of a plague of COVID 19.

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    Kalm Keith

    Richard, here in Australia, among many other things, we have a word: Jingoistic.

    Is it used in America?

    The expression of ideas above might be just that.

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      Richard Ilfeld

      I am familiar with the word and its classic meaning. In colloquial American Western vernacular, however, it is more often used as a meaningless expression of emphasis,
      eg ‘We gotta go right now, by jingo.’ You can find the classic usage in the newspapers of the Teddy Roosevelt era, but I would judge the word unknown to most US students today.

      And don’t call me Shirley.

      20