JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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No doubt about it: 12 days after lockdowns, quarantines and isolation, Coronavirus slows

Ancient technology wins: Not only are quarantine and isolation measures useful, they’re the best tools we have.

Some people don’t seem to realize that the only reason the daily growth of infections is slowing anywhere, is thanks to drastic quarantine measures or changes in human behaviour. We can see this in graphs from Italy, Spain, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, and China, but not in Sweden or Brazil where there’s not much quarantine and not much slowing of growth curves either. In all of the former, the big meaningful actions were followed around 12 days later by an obvious slow down.

Willis Eschenbach, for example, wondered If Lockdowns Worked, but counted subdivisions of any quarantine type action as a measure of the severity when it’s more a measure of the wordsmithiness or indecision of leaders.

To see if major action matters, it’s better to look at the dates that borders, schools and shops were closed. The graphs of daily new cases below show that around 12 days later in so many countries, the growth in cases slows too. The delay is due to both the incubation period of Covid-19 and testing. By the time a lockdown is declared (or any such measure) a large expansion in cases is already “in the can”.

Willis found that masks were useful — which they certainly are but we know that because of scores of medical studies, not because of Japan. (Masks do help, even (maybe) stopping 75% of influenza, and you can make one for yourself).

Japan did a lot more than just wear facemasks. Shinzo Abe shut the entire national school system down from March 2nd. He closed flights from China and South Korea on March 5th. Japanese cases peaked around the 14th of March — twelve days after schools closed, though it was probably due to a lot more than just school closure. The act of announcing something as drastic as that would inspire many behaviour changes, like hand-washing and distancing and working from home, and mask wearing.

Abe made that call, which astonished the schools, when Japan had less than 200 cases. Remember, at the time, Tokyo was still hoping to hold the 2020 Olympic Games in 2020. There was no messing around, and it kept the virus under control.

At some point a thousand PhD’s will pore over all the nations and different responses and they’ll figure out which forms of isolation or lockdown were the winners in the cost benefit stakes. Locking up the old folks may sound good (probably not if you are one), but this horrible virus hits the young, the fit, and even kills children (aged 13). It swallows whole hospitals. (See estimates here too). It’s not viable to sacrifice some in the 30 – 70 group, or give up having working hospitals either. That’s why every nation ends up crushing the curve anyhow

At the moment, we have to hammer that curve, buy us time, and armour up to tackle this properly with treatments, monoclonals, antivirals, tests and proper PPE. Lockdown doesn’t have to last forever: weeks right now, are like gold. Then we beat this thing, one county at a time if we have to.

 

Italy

Italy started mass lockdown on March 10th. On March 11th all non-essential businesses were shut down.

The growth of new daily cases peaked on March 21, 11 days after the mass lockdown began.

Italy

..

Norway

Mass lockdowns were announced on March 15: “Norway takes most far-reaching measures ever experienced in peacetime over coronavirus”.

… and new daily cases peaked 12 days later on March 27th

 

Norway

..

Germany

In late February a few schools were closed in the one town (pop 40,000) where there was a cluster of cases. But travel to Italy was deemed A-OK. By March 8th, events of over 1,000 were banned, but not a lot else. Then on March 12, Donald Trump banned flights from the EU to the US and sent everyone into a flap. At this point some parts of the German government woke up.

On 13 March, most German states decided to close their schools. Some states added wider closures the next day. The national government suddenly ordered 10,000 ventilators. On the 15th of March Bavaria had local elections “luckily” just one day before the same state dissolved into an emergency with very complicated rules. Meanwhile people still flew in freely from Iran. On  March 16th the public got angry and the flights were stopped. Later that same day, the Bavarian rules were extended over the whole country. Shops were mostly shut, buses were out, as was church, playgrounds or tourism. But it wasn’t called a “shutdown”. Finally on March 18th Germany closed borders to Italy, France, Switzerland and Denmark. Though flights to Iran and China apparently continued despite being stopped. The following week the rules got even tighter and curfews were introduced.

Germany peaked (maybe) on March 27th, sort of 11 days after flights were stopped (or not) from Iran and China, shops were shut, and a complicated set of social distancing rules came in.

Sourced from the pandemic timeline in Germany.

Germany

..

 Spain

The Spanish government imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 14th.  Shops and businesses closed and all residents asked to stay home on March 15th. A State of Alarm was declared. In Spain cases peaked March 26th — 12 days after the lockdown was imposed.

spain

..

In Switzerland:

Isolation and distancing measures were gradually phased in.

On the 28th of Feb large events with more than 1000 people were closed. On the 6th March Switzerland changed strategy to protect older persons and vulnerable groups. On 13th March classes were stopped. All events were banned of more than 100 people. Borders were partially closed. On 16th March bars and most shops were closed.  March 20 the government announced no lock down policy would be pursued but all events with more than 5 people were banned. Since March 6th the Swiss Government policy was not to test anyone with mild symptoms. The daily new cases peaked on March 20th and has stayed level ever since.

So decisive moves were either to isolate vulnerable people on March 6th or closing schools on March 13. The peak was around March 20.

Swiss

..

Australia

In Australia growth slowed on March 23 and peaked by March 28th (so far). The timeline of quarantine moves was incremental but most Covid cases were related to flights and cruise ships, so the border changes would have been more influential. And flights were banned from Iran on March 1, South Korea on March 5, Italy on March 11. On 13th March all gatherings over 500 were banned. On 15th March all incoming travellers were asked to self isolate for 14 days. On 20th March all borders were closed. On 21st March social distancing rules of 4 m2 per person were introduced. March 23 saw the closure of most cinemas, nightclubs, pubs, casinos. Restaurants ordered to do “Takeaway only”. Schools closed in Victoria from March 24, but parents were withdrawing children across the country even though other schools were technically open.

The peak on March 22 may have related to the reduction in flights from Italy 11 days earlier, though the Ruby Princess Cruise ship adds a lot of noise. I’m not convinced this is an easy peak to tie to any day, but the major action in Australia was in the middle two weeks of March.

 

...

Australian daily new cases (Click to enlarge).

Sweden

In Sweden there’s been no organised quarantine, just partial voluntary withdrawal, and there’s also been no peak yet.

 

sweden

..

Brazil

In Brazil, President Bolsonaro seems to favour doing nothing, but the governors of Sao Paulo and Rio De Janeiro banned gatherings and closed schools and many are pleading for action.

It’s not looking good. Not enough testing for starters.

 

brazil

..


China

On January 23: Wuhan placed under lockdown. Other Chinese provinces would follow during the next week. Despite the doctored official numbers, the rapid growth rate peaked twelve days later on Feb 4th. The spike around Feb 12th was due to definition changes.

China

Beware “official” Chinese figures.

In South Korea

On Feb 18th patient #31 went to religious meetings and cases escalated. By Feb 20th the streets of Daegu were empty. South Korean officials tracked and isolated cases at military bases, at the church group, and one hospital. Interviews were done on, wow, 230,000 members of the church at the centre of the outbreak which accounted for 60% of the national cases. The outbreak peaked by March 3rd, 12 days after the streets of Daegu were emptied.

Most infections in March were from travellers. South Korea put in stronger self isolation measures for travellers from April 1. Timeline for South Korea.

South Korea

..Worldometer

 The bell curve is all man-made

In a natural exponential growth situation with no lockdowns the infections keep spreading until most of the population has had it. This will eventually produce “that flattening” on a log graph, but we’re not remotely there yet (we are not even close). That only starts to happen when we reach well over half the population.

When graphing infectious growth on a log graph, any curve away from linear towards horizontal is good news.

And crushing an exponential daily growth curve down is no mean feat.

Things everyone needs to know:

Masks do help, even (maybe) stopping 75% of influenza, and you can make them

Stop with the fatalism: Don’t flatten it, Crush The Curve on Coronavirus

 

 

______________________________________________

Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ Proof that viruses don’t have wings and we should have stopped all flights so much earlier. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀ The story of Vo, the Italian town that stopped the virus. ☀ Delay = Death, statistics show mortality rates rise tenfold if hospitals are overwhelmed. ☀

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer Coronavirus data in Australia

 

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Rating: 8.8/10 (36 votes cast)
No doubt about it: 12 days after lockdowns, quarantines and isolation, Coronavirus slows, 8.8 out of 10 based on 36 ratings

267 comments to No doubt about it: 12 days after lockdowns, quarantines and isolation, Coronavirus slows

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    An interesting and relevant, if uneasy read …

    Covid-19 and the Question Concerning Technology -
    How the crisis will change our views on innovation, privacy—and nature …

    “The responses adopted by governments around the world seem to fall into two main categories.
    Those countries able to leverage new and emerging technologies to fight the virus have done better in limiting the number of cases and fatalities, while managing to keep most of their economies and societies operational.

    The countries unable to use technology had to rely on lockdowns, quarantines, generalized closures, and other physical restrictions—the same methods used to fight the Spanish flu more than a century ago and, in many cases, with the same slow, painful results.

    In Singapore and South Korea, individuals are digitally monitored, but life is almost normal.
    In Spain, they are not monitored—but they cannot leave home.
    The Spanish situation seems almost medieval.”

    https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-and-technology

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    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      There’s new technology and new applications for old technology. The two go hand in hand for development.

      Where there’s a visible lack of technology it is at the most basic level that technology is lacking.

      Jo, wonderful work is being done here, but what are the AGW freaks doing behind our backs while nobody is watching? I can’t imagine that they would not make use of this chaos.

      80

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Report from previous topic:
        ————

        A virus shreds the economy, then it appears the climate mob want to make sure the economy is “shaped” by eco foolishness as it starts to recover…..bad idea….

        In other words, bring the economy back up, but cripple it so it limps, distorted, dazed & confused around under the weight of eco “nirvana”…..lunacy

        You can put a pretty face on it, but ultimately its eco-slavery.

        https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ambitious-climate-action-a-double-win-for-economy-in-coronavirus-recovery-20200402-p54gj3.html

        “Industry groups and climate change experts are calling on the government to use the economic recovery effort after the disruption from the global coronavirus pandemic to generate jobs and economic growth by rolling out low-emissions technologies.

        “On Wednesday the UK government announced it had postponed the United Nations climate change conference which it was set to host in Glasgow in November. It is expected to be reconvened some time next year.

        “Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said the federal government remains “committed to the Paris Agreement” and the Morrison government has previously promised to release a long-term emission reduction strategy ahead of the UN talks, backed with an “investment roadmap” to guide government expenditure on emissions reduction technologies.

        “Anna Skarbek, chief executive of the ClimateWorks policy advisory body with Monash University, said the actions needed to achieve our climate commitments are compatible with economic stimulus to recover from the pandemic.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          This sounds like a very unwanted and unwelcome new aspect of the global warming disease;

          Hitching a free ride on the back of the COVO19 Shutdown.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Just another mob trying desperately to keep their ‘audience’
          When it is clear that they have completely lost it in the general public.
          And when this is all over, the general public
          ( With some exceptions like Cruise liners )
          Will want their ordinary lives back
          With all the demand for services that meansRegardless of the impact on CO2 etc

          70

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Based on the number of comments by climate alarmists to yesterday’s Antarctic ice story in The Australian, it would seem that the alarmists now want to link “climate denial” to “Covid 19 denial”. Expect to see more of this in the coming weeks.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Some body else trying to stay relevant before their audience drifts away.
      It is true that South Korea, Taiwan & Japan were much quicker to act than Italy & Spain, to stop the spread of this virus. But to be frank that was a matter of politics not technology.
      And citing Spain as ‘Medieval’ !
      I doubt that many Spanish will thank him for that comment.
      Utter callousness. !

      50

    • #
      truth

      South Korea’s cases per million figure is very marginally better than ours…but their death rate is worse….possibly because it’s colder there….or for demographic reasons.

      They’ve probably not had the cruise ship factor either.

      I hope their working on the technology factor here….along with the PR and homilies.

      40

  • #
    Contemptible Blackguard

    Question: If soap has such a dramatic affect on the virus, could a mask with some sort of soap impregnation help and should washing the masks in soapy water kill them off?

    81

  • #
    Asp

    Now that there is some evidence that Australia is past its most infectious phase of the coronavirus, it would be good to see our leaders engage in discussions as to how we could implement a staged return to normalcy.
    Unfortunately, all we hear is talk of economic hibernation for six months and the need for a vaccine to eradicate this virus. The former will totally ruin our country, already heavily debt ridden from previous mismanagement. The latter is a pipe dream. It is not clear whether an effective vaccine can be produced, let alone how long that would take. This little gem from our regional biolabs is now out of Pandora’s Box, and we will have to learn to live with it, much the same as for the many other viruses that abound in our microbiodiversity.
    Let’s get seriously into damage control and learn to accept that there is no painless way forward from here.

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    • #
      TedM

      Now that there is some evidence that Australia is past its most infectious phase of the coronavirus”

      Possibly now that we have stopped most of the imported cases that have distorted the figures, and given the perception that we are getting the infection rate under control…….

      91

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I was reading through the NSW Cov19 lock down legislation – basically its a case of someone making an arbitrary descison to keep everyone locked down for the next 30 days, every 30 days, ad infinitum.

        Apparently there is a sunset clause that says after MINIMUM 12 months if no new infections, the legislation is deactivated. So….3 months, 3 months….12 months…= 18 months.

        This is really *Dangerous* – Democracy warning – under anti terrorism legislation in this country, a person can be help indefinitely without trial effectively on a the political whim. Which would make them a political prisoner….

        People need to read up on this legislation ( maybe I mis-interpreted it ? ) as it effectively gives a martial law situation an indefinite life….which is what you’d do if you wanted to kill off democracy….slowly…..for our “own good” of course…..

        122

        • #
          AP

          Yes it is very interesting that the government thought it was unreasonable to close our borders six weeks ago, but it is perfectly reasonable to enact this draconian legislation today.

          40

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Yes and it makes me suspicious they seemed to have a lot of “heres one we prepared earlier…”

            Most of the world pretty much followed the same “script”.

            Advanced planning? Maybe.

            Funny how the greenists want to reboot into eco slavery…..whether its medical lock down or greenist lockdown, the theme is the same.

            60

            • #
              AP

              Yes I was stunned by how quickly the spending/stimulus measures were announced. Even before the borders were closed! Priorities.

              The total stimulus is now over $300 billion in reckless spending. All for the sake of keeping the borders open for a few weeks. That’s now the equivalent of a years’ personal income tax take, plus capital gains plus taxes on dividends.

              Given our system never returned to surplus following the last splurge, it is tough to see how this will ever get paid off.

              There are roughly 12 million taxpayers, so that means that in the past few weeks, SloMo has burdened each of us with an additional IOU of $25,000. Interest at 4% is $12 Billion per annum or $1,000 per taxpayer annually. Add that to the bill.

              Did we vote for any of this?

              Where/who exactly is my $25,000 going to?

              40

              • #
                WXcycles

                What happens when you have State .gov with no money and unrepayable debt plus fat deficits debating and deciding policies with the Federal level, where said states are facing potential depression conditions and bank debt haircuts and massive public bailouts.

                So stimulate now to get through, or the States default due to a lack of revenues in the coming 12 months. No good having a Federal surplus with which to repay Federal debt, when the State balance sheets are basket cases.

                So it was unthinkable that fast decisions to spend big now, to support the next 6 months would have to happen. Apparently the RBA made that situation clear to Washington at the same time, to put the FRB backing arrangements in place.

                10

              • #
                AP

                WXc
                My main point is that we would not be needing to open a fire-hose of 300 Billion in stimulus if the idiots in power had simply closed the international border with a quarantine regime a matter of only a few weeks before they did.

                30

            • #
              AP

              Oh, and it was fine for covid passengers to disembark cruise ships a couple of weeks ago but now you can be arrested for leaving your house.

              I fear we are witnessing something truly awful happen to our freedoms and liberties.

              40

      • #
        Asp

        By no means am I suggesting that we abandon the current strategy forthwith, but that we should be putting some of our energy into mapping out a possible return to normalcy, in the event that all the current forecasts prove to be overly conservative.
        Can we start to discuss which of the various indicators are relevant, and what are the appropriate levels to determine that we are in the fact recovering from the virus? At present, all we hear is that ‘it is at least six months away’ and ‘we need to find a vaccine’. Can anyone provide the background to the estimate of the infamous ‘six months’, or is it the average of ‘more than a week’ and ‘less than a year’?

        60

        • #

          Asp. I agree.

          The six months thing comes from old flu pandemic models and also from basic doublings and the time it takes to rip through most of the population. Look at epidemiology models. It’s a “flatten the curve” estimate where most people get it but we slow down the horrible Ro wave and make it into a horrible economy-and-people killer.

          If we let this run naturally with an Ro of 3 and a doubling of 3 days (or less) we are one month away from 5 million infected, and would reach half the nation in the week after that. Then slow slightly as herd immunity began to have a small effect. But 12 weeks from now the whole nation would have been savaged and five times as many people would have died (at least) as needed too.

          The six month thing was the defeatist aim of pushing that curve down to a 6 month timeframe, but our hospitals would still be overwhelmed and for longer. It also fits with the seasonal wintertime boom they expect.

          The third option is to fight aggressively, buy time and discoveries. And if we battle this in three months with chloroquine, or survivor plasma, masks, etc, we get much better odds. Better still, if we hammer this now, with hard borders, mass testing and tracking we get the best option of all, where we achieve zones with no virus and build them up from there.

          60

          • #
            Asp

            If we have confidence in the data provided by http://www.health.gov.au, then it would appear that NSW has the biggest challenge to manage the virus, based on the proportion of ‘Locally acquired-unidentified contact’ cases, the ones with the potential for an unwelcome blowout. For all other states, the number of these mystery cases appears to be more manageable. So we clean up WA and Tas, followed by SA and NT, then Vic and Qld, and keep borders hard as you suggest.

            00

  • #
    Don B

    Jo, would you do a similar analysis on the U.S.?

    30

    • #
      RickWill

      This link gives a good analysis, selectable state-by state:
      https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

      It shows projections based on existing measures for each state, giving expected number of beds and available beds plus expected ICU beds and actual available beds. It also shows when the need will peak.

      If you select New York and set at the vertical bar at today’s data you will see 3rd of April they require 60k beds with 13k available and 9k ICU with 718 available. They can no longer service the 911 calls. The military have ordered 100k body bags to add to the 50k stockpile. New York will have military collecting bodies soon.
      https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-covid-19-body-removal-new-york-city-morgues-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

      “No one in the New York City area possibly has enough equipment to care for human remains of this magnitude,” Marmo said.

      By comparison, California is building enough capacity to stay ahead of the curve. Louisiana is another state that is stressed. Beds are forecast to be OK but ICU beds are lacking. They are getting more ventilators.

      Washington went hard and early after the scare in the aged care home. They are well ahead of the curve in resources and already nearing their peak.

      The West coast is managing way better than the East coast. The west coast is generally sprawling with low level of crowded public transport compared with the East coast.

      50

    • #

      DonB, I’d like to. But each US state has different policies, so it needs to be done state by state and I don’t think any states are yet crushing the curve? Are any plateauing?

      Locals may point to examples where they know the dates aggressive policies suddenly changed. That would be interesting, and we can look for the peak (and pray for it).

      00

  • #

    Jo

    It’s really a bit difficult to see definitive peaking in either Italy or Spain. Maybe it will show a noticeable decrease over the next few days but locking people up in large family groups is
    Ilkely to encourage the virus to circulate quite apart from the physical mental and financial health considerations and the devastating impacts on relationships .

    We have commented before on the imperial study that spooked many governments and our concern at the poor modelling which forced govts to take certain directions.

    Here is the letter on fergusons report on foot and mouth from 2006 and there is an extremely damaging 20 page report showing how poor the modelling was

    https://web.archive.org/web/20061109213956/http://www.warmwell.com/06oct10magnus.html

    You will need no introduction either to sir David king responsible for modelling on climate change. Remember that? It seems such a long time ago!

    82

    • #
      RickWill

      Italy has flattened their death rate from doubling every 3 days to every 8 days. That is a significant improvement if not quite crushing it. Interactive plot here:
      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

      Spain is down to doubling every 5 days compared with doubling every two days in the early toll.

      The daily number of deaths are still high because they were slow to clamp down on spread.

      USA death toll is still doubling every 3 days.

      There is a long lag of about 30 days between implementing controls and impacting the rate of deaths. To some degree the time lag depends on the care available because people die sooner if they are not given the best care. The actual death toll data loses accuracy once hospitals are stressed because the military get involved in collecting bodies from residences. I doubt post mortems are conducted once military get involved.

      50

    • #

      Tonyb, it’s not hard at all to see the peak in Italy and Spain, they are beautiful (in a tragic way).

      Look at the growing exponential wave — imagine it continuing — it would be off the chart now had not a huge change in direction occurred. They have stopped a devastating wave. If only they started two weeks earlier…

      So look above the plateau, fill in the enormous volume of growth that didn’t happen.

      10

      • #
        WXcycles

        What bothers me Jo is how they get the active case numbers to actually fall now. Italy still seems to be a long way from that solid indication that the virus has been defeated, even as the society is feeling like it was routed. What if they can’t get it to fall during April?

        20

        • #

          WX, they have to change policies. Stop telling people to stay home who are sick.

          Plus start mass testing to get the infected-but-well out of homes and isolate them.

          00

          • #
            Sunni Bakchat

            if the micro-droplet theory is correct; and it certainly looks like it is; health authorities need to do the same 180 degree turn they’ve been very slow to do with mask advisory.

            Last week it was looking like this pandemic would be defined by shortages of sanitiser, masks, testing and essential medicine. Now the pandemic is starting to look like its about anchored thinking, professional pride, dirty politics and plain old stubborn “not invented here syndrome”.

            The numbers aren’t falling quickly because the “wear a mask” message is not definitive or enforced. Now the micro-droplet information that has come to light needs to be integrated into the virus eradication plan.

            Some cut through leadership is desperately overdue. Public health policies need to adjust lightning fast to enable the world economy to return to full operation.

            10

  • #
    Raving

    Don’t assume figures that are reported. Deaths in senior residences here are often unreported as being from COVID19

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-deaths-covid-19-long-term-care-nursing-homes-1.5516801

    50

  • #
    Zigmaster

    Whilst one can draw conclusions from data new cases can be quite illusory as the rapid increases reflect as much the increased testing as an increased spread. It’s easy to get the curve down , don’t test anyone. Then only the real sick, the ones needing hospitalisation will show up.With so many people showing minor or no symptoms the real figures could literally be anything. If one looks at the number of positive cases in Australia from the number of tests the figure is extremely low but because it doesn’t do an antibody test to indicate people who may have already had the disease we have no idea what the real infection rate is. Also when looking at global figures does anyone really trust the data from China, Russia or Iran?
    The only curve that matters is the death rate and even that has elements of speculation especially when the vast majority of victims had immune systems compromised by other factors which would’ve led to deaths in the short term anyway. in a bizarre way if one looks at the actions taken there will be all sorts of distortions in the total death rate, with less deaths from motor vehicle crashes, or certain diseases especially seasonal flu ( which kills around 500,000 per year) due to these lockdowns.
    There is no doubt quarantine , closing borders and social distancing have been effective in reducing the spread but the complex nature and integrity of data collection and the unintended consequences of these actions such as increased domestic violence, suicide and economic devastation means that for every country the appropriate policy action is not straight forward .
    The operation was a great success, unfortunately the patient died!
    There is no one size fits all with this situation.

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    • #
      Raving

      When it gets into the old aged homes, the death rate is ghastly.If the pandemic spreads to 30-60% of the population, there will be no hiding the millions of deaths of old people

      45

    • #
      PeterS

      Agree. I made a similar comment below. Relying on statistics to decide what actions we need to take can be very dangerous. By all means we should use the precautionary principle in this situation but we also need to do far more in certain other areas that are still left untouched (see my post below for examples). It all needs to be done with care otherwise as you and others have highlighted we might cure the disease but we might end up killing the patient in the process.

      20

    • #

      Raving and Zigmaster. I quite agree on the dodgy data. I was surprised the pattern in the post came out as strongly as it did. I thought the peaks would be spread more like 10 – 15 days — more muted. But I think there came a point in each nation where the leaders realized that the only option was major action, and their epidemiologists threw out the stupid “Slow bleed” option, and there was a turning point in action (not in Sweden or Brazil yet, but that will come). A day when most of the nation woke up.

      It will take many PhDs to estimate the real data (this is like the Fog of War). But we have to decide some thing today based on what we have.

      20

  • #
    Raving

    Don’t assume the reported infections mean that much either. The figures are often very heterogeneous to regions. For example, many infections in Northern Italy. Fewer infections in the South.
    Here is Canada’s regional breakdown for example. Select “par 100,000 hab(itants)”

    https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/

    32

    • #

      The largest proportion of our deaths come from London which is different in nature to much of the rest of the country. In the US it’s New York which again is not representative of the rest of the country.

      70

  • #
    Another Ian

    Another curve deflected

    “Delingpole: UN Climate Summit Tragically ‘Postponed’ Because of Coronavirus”

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/02/un-climate-summit-tragically-postponed-because-of-coronavirus/https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/04/02/un-climate-summit-tragically-postponed-because-of-coronavirus/

    “Already, diplomats in the European Union are privately admitting that coronavirus means game over for the European Commission’s Green Deal.”

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      The EC is moving right along on the GD. They just started the cost benefit analysis (cost low, benefits huge) as well as a step toward increasing the 2030 emission cut requirements, to be made law. They are not even slowing down for the virus.

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        Raving

        Money is no obstacle for them. we live in miraculous times

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            OriginalSteve

            the date 2030 is “enshrined” in UN doco a lot – it makes me think this could be a huge push to shove the world into a global govt.

            So far people have resisted it, and with Brexit, Trump and people wanting to leave the failed EU, the Elite would have been delirious with panic, so now we have a global lockdown utilizing a nasty designer bug.

            This was predicted – once the Elite realized their foul, horrific & Un-Godly “new world” was leaving the rails, that they would enact some “baseball bat” to bully the world back on track into the globalist black hole they appear to have planned.

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              Chad

              – it makes me think this could be a huge push to shove the world into a global govt.

              Rest easy….
              There is no way there will ever be a World Government whilst we have such opposed ideologies as the USA, Russia, China etc.
              The UN are just a bunch of children playing in a grown-ups game !

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                doc

                The problem is, Chad, our politicians are playing that game. The ‘for’ voices are loud. The ‘NO’ voices are not heard and will be severely punished,
                even in Australia. There is little rationality in our Parliaments, even when the politicians see Russia, China, India and Trump’s USA having nothing to do
                with it. And according to doctrine, they are the biggest emitters but never confronted by the leaders of the con. Why our politicians never wake up
                from the slumber and see AGW for what its aim is – the destruction of our Western economies – is beyond me and logic!

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              truth

              Labor is already positioning here to characterize this event as Capitalism’s Waterloo …just as it tried to do following the GFC… with Rudd’s claims that Capitalism had now failed and Socialism was the answer…and they’ll get only help…no truth …from our LW ‘journalists’….just as they did then.

              Morrison heads the Photios faction that delivered Australia into the hands of Turnbull and his transition of Australia to de-industrialization …that made the last five years a dead zone.

              Lobbyist and WetLeft Lib guru Photios is an acolyte of Gore and Naomi Klein …and wants policy that would deliver Australian sovereignty into the hands of the gnomes and activists of the UNIPCC …for the planet.

              Photios’ great triumph is in having manoeuvred his candidate and his footsoldiers into government and Cabinet….and buried Australia’s only real PM Tony Abbott…who not only secured Australia’s borders…but had as Health Minister in 2005 prepared Australia as much as possible …for this pandemic.

              With his proclamation that the maniacal subs contract …only entered into in order to prop up his NSW Photios faction’s PM Turnbull via Pyne….would go ahead post-Covid without missing a beat…Morrison shows no sign of any rethink of his mad transition of Australia to Global Socialism.

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                Kalm Keith

                Thanks for that bit of political background.

                I dislike both major partis as neither has any focus higher than paying off the supporters who got them elected and then quickly going for the big hit.

                How good is that, straya!

                If you feel like a convict, and get treated like a convict then it probably means you voted in O’Straya.

                Long may we remember them.

                Julia, Julie, Kevin, MalEx444, Photosynthetic Politicians etc.

                KK

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    Damo

    The problem with crushing or flattening the curve is that the virus moves incredibly slowly through the population and thus the vast majority of the population remain immunologically naive to. When I do calculations on how fast it moves through a country like Italy, it taking at least 10 years for a significant proportion of the population to be infected. That’s with massive lock down and it’s resultant economic impairment and also a completely dysfunctional health system unable to deliver appropriate care for the usual diseases.

    So although crushing the curve or flattening the curve might prevent massive collapse of the health system and massive mortality (in a mainly older, comorbid age group), it means doing so on an ongoing basis with massive limitation on our freedoms and way of life.

    This is different decision making from how the world approached its previous 2 major crises over the last century, namely the two World Wars. Then, the world thought it appropriate to send it’s youngest citizens to their death to fight for our freedoms and way of life.

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    I guess unthreaded are off for now. It may not matter because all anyone wants to talk about is the virus scare. I don’t know about the death count but the word count is soaring.

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      Raving

      Greta says that she likely had the COVID19 infection. COP26 is delayed. Trump is fighting a war and a re-election on the pandemic outcome. Developing countries have banned the export ofdrugs, pp other critical supplies to keep for their own domestic use.

      Co2 output is down.the crusie business is dead. not sure what use a cruiseshi is for loan colateralthese days

      Maybe the future is in ocean going sailing cats. Need to watch out for the whale strikes

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      sophocles

      David said:

      I don’t know about the death count but the word count is soaring

      Boring, isn’t it?

      I’m under a lockdown, it’s bl***y boring, so I’m rereading my sci-fi collection.
      Nearly finished with Asimov and I’ll be moving onto Bova by the end of the weekend.

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        How about a new theory of animal instincts, that they are inherited bodies of expert knowledge?
        See my http://horsecognition.blogspot.com. I usually warn people that it runs over 30,000 words but in this case that might be good. Many years of watching critters reasoning.

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          Kalm Keith

          Wunderful. Functional.

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          sophocles

          Thanks David.

          Interesting.

          My only experiences with horses was through a girl friend who was mad about them.
          I learned that horses are pretty smart and sharp and they have a good sense of smell. One mare (called ‘Lady’ — she wasn’t!) discovered — or worked out — the pocket in my jeans in which I had carried apples (small ones and she got a good share of them), and how it worked. She and I had to have a talk about that, and how picking pockets was not good manners …

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        Peter C

        I’m under a lockdown, it’s bl***y boring, so I’m rereading my sci-fi collection.

        Good idea,

        Asimov’s Foundation was all about managing the decline and fall of the World Order (The Empire), which might be where we are now. I re read that just recently,

        Now I will look about for The Crysalids by John Wyndam and A Canticle for Leibowitz by Walter Miller, to see how to manage in the post apocalyptic world.

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          sophocles

          I’ve just finished rereading the Foundation series — all six books of them.

          I’m back to reading A C Grayling’s Democracy and it’s crisis. It was lent to me by a brother a few weeks before the lockdown. The first section is arguments from Plato then Aristotle, neither of whom seemed to like any form of government.

          I’m stuck in the second section — reading and re-reading all the debate spawned by the English Civil War and the … argument — and that’s the right word for it … between the men of The New Model Army and it’s Officers and Parliament. Wow. A triangular fight. None of this was in my book about Cromwell et al. (John Adair By the Sword Divided – Eyewitnesses of the English Civil War“) It could have been and I missed it. So that book is back on my stack.

          The letters are amazing reading: they are so courteous and so carefully polite yet each sentence is as acute as the edge of a cut-throat razor. Modern journalists could (and should) take lessons from them instead of writing their present mush. (I won’t post examples: I think the moderation scripts would have conniptions :-D ) Modern politics is drab in comparison.

          I’m also reading “COLOSSUS The Secrets of Bletchley Park’s Codebreaking Computers” Jack Copeland et al. [2006].

          I’m alternating between them as relaxation from the other.

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        Or how about the structure of complex issues? No plot alas, just logic. But you can see things happening as issues develop that others do not see.
        http://www.stemed.info/reports/Wojick_Issue_Analysis_txt.pdf

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        Bill In Oz

        Try Neal Stevenson’s “Seven Eves” 2015.
        Good old style Sci-Fi for the most part.

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        sophocles

        …..so I’m rereading my sci-fi collection.
        Nearly finished with Asimov and I’ll be moving onto Bova by the end of the weekend.

        Have you read The Lensman Series? After Asimov’s The Foundation Series, I would say that’s the best SF I have read, and you might also try out the English author Peter F Hamilton, and he’s in my top 4 for SF. (Asimov, Heinlein, Doc Smith and Hamilton)
        Those Lensman novels (seven of them in that series) might be almost impossible to get hold of now, So I’m just so glad I kept my copies for these last 50 years now.

        Tony.

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          MudCrab

          I tried and failed with Lensman. I have some early paperbacks I picked up second hand but struggled a bit.

          I think part of the problem is they have dated relative to their reference materials. In the one I was reading one of the characters is info dumping to another to bring new readers up to speed and makes comment that their new base was so strong you would need a 500lb bomb to damage it (maybe 250lb, going from memory).

          In context of the time (pre WW2) this place is a fortress and that was the writer’s intent.

          In my context I am thinking “Wow. That’s a small bomb. Place is unhardened and possibly a death trap”.

          Also, to my shame, I must confess that when I read Hamilton I automatically associated Laura K. FORGIVE ME!!!

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          WXcycles

          Stranger in a Strange Land – Robert Heinlien

          free .pdf

          https://archive.org/download/StrangerInAStrangeLandRobertAHeinlein/Stranger%20in%20a%20Strange%20Land%20-%20Robert%20A%20Heinlein.pdf

          Definitely going to read that one again soon.

          Loved EE Doc Smith.

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        MudCrab

        Are you reading in order of personal preference or alphabetically?

        If the second did you ever get into Banks?

        Was having a conversation recently with a friend – the one who got me onto Banks in the first place – about if he should try and redo them via audio book and that while he remembers enjoying them, can’t actually remember what any of the plots.

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        Lucky

        sophocles-
        has finished Asimov, moving to Bova – a carbon change follower.
        Better choices would be Michael Crichton, Robert Heinlein. ..

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          sophocles

          The Lensman Series: I can almost recite them.
          The Skylark Series: ditto.
          The D’Alembert Series: instantly failed to appeal for some reason I’ve not tried to analyze.
          and a few other works.
          All recently re-read.(Last Christmas/New Year)

          David Brin is queued behind Bova. (first met Brin with The Practice Effect which amused me immensely.)

          Peter Hamilton: never appealed so I don’t have any of his.

          I read everything Heinlein wrote but have very few books left after a huge cleanout I had some years ago. Of course, I totally regret the cleanout but my collection is only half the size it once was. It now fits inside my house, especially after I tossed 50 years of collecting Analog Magazine, Wireless World and Electronics Australia along with a couple of decades of Ham Radio.

          I did keep all Murray Ball’s Footrot Flats :-D

          Mudcrab:
          ——–
          you’re supposed to step over those little peccadillos. 500lbs was a big bomb. once. It can’t be dropped by hand from a biplane.

          I’m reading what’s to hand. I spent last winter assembling some large bookcases. It’s what comes out of the mountain of cartons and goes onto the shelves after I finish another bookcase. Easy.
          The first bookcase is almost alphabetic but I think it was an accident.
          Banks doesn’t ring any bells. Don’t remember reading anything there.

          Lucky:
          ——
          We will just have to accept that your tastes and my tastes differ.
          The best choices are what appeals to me from what I have on my bookshelves. I can’t go anywhere to get any books. Public Libraries, Bookshops and Book Exchanges are not essential businesses and are all closed.
          I’ve even got some books coming through the post but none of them are by Crichton or Heinlein.
          By the time they arrive, the lockdown could be over.
          There are some, such as Robert Jordan, I have read once and can’t be bothered reading again.
          I don’t a Rats-a**e about who is or isn’t a `carbon change follower.’
          ——–

          I’ve still got plenty see me through the lockdown however long it becomes. :-D

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            Graeme No.3

            sophocles:

            At the beginning of WW2 the RAF did have a 500lb. bomb, but didn’t see any use for it. They thought a lot of smaller bombs would do more damage, as one was likely to hit the target. I remember a photo of damage by Stukas in Poland in 1939 and the British comment about planes dropping such huge bombs.
            Worse the German bombs were 250kg (roughly 550lbs.) and were boosted by there being more explosive by weight than in the casing, unlike the British ones, and the explosive had 1.8 times more destructive force than the British**. So all told there was about 4 times the effect than with the British 500 lb.
            And the Germans had more reliable fuses. They had done their homework before the war.

            ** ‘secret’ known to the British before the war but introduction delayed by bureaucratic inertia.

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        Slithers

        I am also in lockdown as I live in a nursing home.
        There have already been two un-expected deaths here. They could not see loved ones since 14 days and just gave up!
        So they died alone!

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          sophocles

          That’s sad.
          I’m sorry to hear that.

          How are you coping?

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          Kalm Keith

          When I first read this the other day I felt unhappy.

          This should not be allowed to happen. There must be ways of enabling some contact at this very important moment.

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    Robber

    Can you believe not one new case in China since March 8, and now only 2000 active cases?
    If true, by end April Australia will be able to return to normality. And we won’t need those 4,000 new ICU beds.
    Wonder what China will do with that new hospital they built in 2 weeks? Offer it to the US?

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      sophocles

      Can you believe not one new case in China since March 8,

      No.

      It hasn’t met Southern China …

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    PeterS

    One stark difference in statistics is comparing Greece and Italy. Italy is suffering about 180 deaths per million. Yet Greece, which is effectively next door to Italy is only having about 4 per million. That is in spite of the populations having similar characteristics, such as age, health care and many other factors. Greece might be doing something different. There is one other possible explanation. The statistics are very questionable. So be careful how they are used in this situation. It’s not the first time people who relied on statistics ended up with egg on their face. I believe it’s premature to make any conclusion on the current statistics given the lack of a complete understanding of the circumstances and variables in each and every nation in the world. We need to focus on the precautionary measures we are taking and fix up the many holes be have allowed to be formed in our way of life compare to other nations, such as lack of masks and other health items, deterioration of our health habits (eg, spitting in public), lack of cleanliness (eg, no cleaning of surfaces in stores, not washing of hands properly or not at all), etc.. Above all the world needs to get tough on countries like China with their dietary habits. The so called “wet markets” need to be banned as another precautionary measure since it is considered to be the source of the current and past virus outbreaks.
    Ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

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    el gordo

    Brazil’s dictator is on the nose, his days are clearly numbered.

    ‘The Brazilian president has denied the seriousness of coronavirus, rejected the advice of health officials, fought with governors trying to take precautions, put the poor at greatest risk – and jeopardised a coordinated global response to a threat that might change the course of humanity.’ Guardian

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    Raving

    No ‘immunity passports’ for Aussies, huh…

    “No 10 seeks to end Covid-19 lockdown with ‘ immunity passports’”
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/02/no-10-seeks-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-with-immunity-passports

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    DyPrime

    So some number of weeks go by, we hammer the curve, then what? If the virus is burnt out great but if not, how do you end a lockdown and not have to start all over again?

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    Ross

    It did not take the UN long to stick out their grubby hands. They are now proposing a global 10% tax –”UN Wants a 10% Global Tax to Pay for New “Shared Responsibility” Program to Address Coronavirus Pandemic”

    I remember some years ago ( just before the Copenhagen talkfest, I think) Christopher Monckton alerted us all to the UN wanting to develop a One World Government. Everyone thought he was a nutter and even when he presented the documented evidence the MSM still mocked him. They obviously have not lost that goal.

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      Mike Jonas

      ScoMo, Boris and Donald are handing out money to keep the economy going. Kevin did the same in the GFC. So what effect would an extra tax have?

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      beowulf

      What “shared responsibility”?
      It’s China’s disease — yet again — let China pay reparations to the world instead of profiting from CV, flogging dodgy masks and test kits, and extending its political grip on 3rd world countries its disease has further weakened.

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      William Astley

      I agree China should pay for the covid damages. They officially hid the outbreak.

      Also they did not let the CDC have access to the site, which in unthinkable as a virus is a risk to the entire world. I have been trying to understand why they did that.

      This is consistent with them having something, significant to hide.

      What I do not like is how easily this new novel virus spreads and how dangerous it is. Natural selection would not logically be worst case both biological issues.

      I do not like that the Chinese have been very, very successful in eradicating the virus in their country.

      I do not like the fact that China is profiting due to the drop in the price of oil as they are a large importer of oil. I do not like the fact the US shale oil industry is facing bankruptcy.

      China is the ‘winner’ in virus eradication and their economy will be booming due to super low energy prices. The Chinese are now making money as they the main supplier of masks and as an article notes, it is licence to print money.

      The Chinese official press is saying this new ‘novel’ virus will be the US and Europe’s new Chernobly.

      I do not like the fact that new ‘novel’ virus jumped onto a US aircraft care, when it docked in Vietnam. VIetnam has less than a hundred reported cases of Covid.

      https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/03/18/chinese-media-wuhan-coronavirus-the-u-s-and-europes-new-chernobyl/

      The Chinese government newspaper Global Times proclaimed the coronavirus potentially “the U.S. and Europe’s new Chernobyl” in a column Wednesday accusing the world of “stigmatizing China” for lying about the origin and severity of the Wuhan outbreak, leading it to become a global pandemic.

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    number6

    Open Letter to Angela Merkel from an expert
    Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

    https://youtu.be/LsExPrHCHbw video

    https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/

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      RickWill

      Anyone looking for data beyond the incredible force that China approached this virus is simply a dingbat. The military collecting bodies in Italy and Spain; firefighters in UK collecting bodies and Pentagon ordering 100k body bags in addition to the 50K stockpile they have is what I would consider further compelling evidence to order and force social isolation in countries not familiar with those practices.

      If all countries had the practices and discipline of Japan or the tracking of citizens like Singapore and Taiwan then there could be a less drastic approach.

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      Kalm Keith

      Read the letter.

      Lots of important points.

      At the end he reinforces the point that you cannot use the situation of Italy and Spain to immediately determine the course of action required in Germany.

      One thing he did mention was the high level of pollution in Northern Italy.

      Could Australia perhaps ask if total industrial lockdown and consequent sacrifice is actually achieving anything beyond giving the impression that politicians are super active and concerned about us?

      KK
      KK

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    TedM

    A question: Does the level of the virus load to which a victim has been exposed, have some influence on the progress of the disease? Does exposure to a greater virus load at the time of infection increase the likely hood of that victim progressing to the serious/critical stage and death?

    I have witnessed the effect of pathogen load in otherwise healthy plant communities.

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      Raving

      Yes, I have seen some reports that it might be so

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      TedM. I don’t know but I’d like to see better estimates or reasons for why the incubation can be so variable – 2 -14 days is a large spread.

      I know theoretically it only needs one virus in the right spot.

      It may be that when exposed to a low level the one virus that makes it down to the deep lung is likely flawed. But if multiple virus’es enter a single cell, then all the different flaws will compensate for each other and still produce one working virus.

      Perhaps a low level dose only infects the throat but a high level virus infects right down to the lung, but for some other reason it takes 5 days for the lung damage to be apparent, whereas the sore throat is obvious early on. Others suggest that it’s the throat infection that takes days to spread to the lung.

      The severe cases may be the ones who express more ACE2 in the deep lung due to genes and pollution and smoking. People with high blood pressure may have those genes. And even though the genes are present in the young, they don’t yet have high expression (or high blood pressure).

      Then it could be that due to high blood pressure as oxygen levels fall, the heart pumps harder and faster and those suffering from high blood pressure simply don’t have the flexibility to ramp up heart rates and get through dark days.

      Just thinking out loud.

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        Raving

        some references. not veryuseful so I didnt bother posting it https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

        also see smallpox+variolation

        Have seen better arguments but cannot find right now

        You should also check for covid19 and colchicine (used for ages to treat gout)

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        WXcycles

        I’m sure genetic diversity will be a part of it Jo, but consider this:

        From true fast exponential processes like a runaway chain reaction within a fission core, the rate of energy growth is a function of the number of neutrons initially input. The breeding of more sufficiently energetic neutrons plus slowing their escape from the core (more time and distance to interact with fissile atoms) determines the energy yielded before the core’s thermal and mechanical ‘disassembly’ (decompression) gets going.

        So rate of energy growth per unit time per new generation of neutrons is related to how many neutrons were injected in the beginning to trigger the neutron breeding generations that follow. IIRC, it takes 57 generations to core disassembly and almost all of the energy release occurs in this last massive ‘generation’ of neutrons.

        So you need a lot of neutrons in the first generation to make sure the 57th generation is the largest that it can possibly be to create a large excess of neutrons that will assure the production of the highest yield that physical design can produce, if it triggers and compresses perfectly.

        So in exponential processes the effect is bigger in the later final generation if the first generation injected is very big.

        If the first generation injected is too small, the climb of energy is slower (takes another couple of generations), so the yield (effects achieved) are lower as the core appreciably disassembles before there are enough neutrons to reach a higher peak yield. Decompression leads to a longer mean free path, so fission quenches fast. So you need a huge excess of neutrons in the first generation, else a much lower yield from the exact same physical design.

        What if a virus is exactly the same? The quantity we initially ingest directly affects the breeding efficiency after the first generation, and thus greatly increases or decreases the effect in the later generations, in the exact same human?

        So could it be that initial quantity of virus input almost entirely explains the incidence of very strong and very weak or even asymptomatic cases beyond that genetic predisposition factor (and any others, etc.)?

        Is the apparent lack of sufficient immune response in some and very rapid collapse simply because the initial infection quantity was so large that the immune system was never going to be able to catch up to the virus’s breeding of a very large 2nd generation, and much larger generations thereafter, earlier, even as the body weakens faster and is successfully overcome?

        That’s how I’ve been thinking about the variations in incubation time, i.e. a very long incubation occurs when there is;

        (1) no pre-existing immunity
        (2) the initial infection quantity was very low
        (3) there was no extra infection in the intervening period thereafter to speed up the breeding further.

        And for very short incubations:

        (1) no pre-existing immunity
        (2) the initial infection quantity was very high
        (3) there may have been an extra quite large infection added within the first 24 hours, which served to dramatically increase the virus numbers in the first 3 generations or so, assuring the immune system of even a 29 year old athlete would have no hope of arresting the growth thereafter.

        Thus certain death is the result of very high initial infections where there is no immunity, even in the young and less susceptible. But because they are younger and stronger this still lengthens the asymptomatic period. More generations of growth are needed to overcome them more slowly.

        So the sudden terminal ARDs phase is where a vast excess of virus bread in the last two generations and all the capacity of the immune system to make a dent in such numbers is gone. So 80% to 90% of these die. But 10% still have just enough capacity for their immune system to fight it off on a ventilator. The younger they are the more likely they are to succeed at that.

        Where there’s not enough infection the immune system wins the race, even in older people, and asymptomatic spreading occurs as the immune system is just (and only just) defeating the virus’s next generation over the next few days. Thus super-spreading occurs.

        Which means the if we are hygienic and keep surfaces clean, we may still catch it, but at survivable levels. And as long as there’s no further larger ingestion of virus in the first few days we will have a minor case, because the immune system already ramped up to fight it off, and after a few days is able to beat off even a much larger second infection.

        So keeping surfaces clean of virus (i.e. at lower level), plus lengthening the periods between interactions, i.e. don’t ever go to the shops or interact with others on consecutive days, would increase our tendency to resistant a low level infection of a person with no immunity.

        If the initial dose is small, not reinforced with more virus infection soon after, and the immune system is still functional, you live and maybe get a cold, or nothing at all.

        The testable implication being, that if we gave every person a very, very tine deliberate dose of the virus, to inform even a weak immune system, everyone may survive that survive and develop immunity. OK, that’s a high risk experiment, but what if we gave the youngest 60 of the population a tiny dose of COVID-19? So the society can’t support transmission any more?

        Now I’m not suggesting do this with humans, but we could in weeks test if that proposition was true, and find out if that is what controls the severity. If the severity is lowered and the breeding is very slow, it doesn’t matter if we are infected as the immune system will beat it, in almost everyone of the 60% infected.

        The vulnerable stay in strict isolation for two or three weeks instead of 6 months and if it works, the economy can immediately open to every other country, no matter how infected they are, and we could save huge numbers of people.

        If I was a microbiologist I’d at least check to see if a very low level infection of isolated animals produced a very low severity disease, potentially asymptomatic, and a level of immunity preparedness thereafter.

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          WXcycles

          omg … bred, not bread.

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          PTR

          Thanks for positing this, wonder who is listening? When walking out in the paddock with my dog last Sunday, I was thinking that there has to be a another way to tackle this virus. That progressed to, using a live pathogen to instigate immunity has been done before, why not now? The pathogen doesn’t have to go through all the processing and testing as does that from a dead pathogen. It is there, ready to go. Further, there appears to be a positive correlation between dose rate and severity with this one, and that is something to work on. It was Strain 19 and the eradication of Brucella Abortus; brucellosis causing contagious abortion in cattle. Came home and referenced it; was rather deflated when it turned out that the Brucella was a bacteria and not a virus. Ha! didn’t then have the confidence to take it any further. As an aside, had a decent sort of a mare once that developed fistula of the wither, she was cured from that using Strain 19.

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            WXcycles

            Yes PTR, probably few will read it, I posted it just after Jo had posted two new threads.

            I hope this possibility gets looked into over the next few months, it may be a cheap, fast and low impact way to produce the needed immunity globally without the weeping and gnashing of teeth this month.

            Cheers.

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          Kalm Keith

          One of the best and most relevant things you have written.

          It’s good that you’ve gotten into process analysis and away from those dodgy graphs.

          The words you were looking for:

          Critical Mass. :-)

          KK

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          Kalm Keith

          A few recent posts seem to point to the idea that “quantity” of exposure is one of the most relevant aspects of transmission and infection.

          This leads to intensity or concentration of the virus as the important factor.

          KK

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        Slithers

        Hi Jo, great job btw.
        The scant information that I have managed to find indicates that in order to replicate the virus has to have invaded the Alveolar. If that is really the only place that it can replicate then the initial and subsequent viral loads will dictate the early progression of the infection. There is some indication that it can survive in the Gut hence the small number of people with diarrhea, but there was no data upon it replicating there.
        There is a good product ‘Fisherman’s Friend’ that has beneficial effects when working with people who have flu’ Similar products are available that prevent viral infection.
        Masks are looking more and more like essential apparel.

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Amazing isn’t it. We happily accept laws which the right wing media derided when they were applied in China 4 months ago.

    I guess we are all socialists now

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      TedM

      No PF, it was the way in which they were applied.

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      Kalm Keith

      Just you look after those Koalas Peter.
      They need you.

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      el gordo

      Its a revolution in our political culture, childcare is free and the government has bought the private hospitals, socialism with Australian characteristics. Word from head office is that life will be back to normal in a few months, they know zip.

      “With every country taking aggressive and effective measures, I believe the pandemic can be brought under control. My estimate is around late April,” Zhong Nanshan, who heads a Chinese team of top experts that advises the government on managing the outbreak, said in an interview with Shenzhen Television broadcast late on Wednesday.

      “After late April, no one can say for sure if there will be another virus outbreak next spring or if it will disappear with warmer weather … though the virus’ activity will certainly diminish in higher temperatures,” he said.

      South China Morning Post

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        Peter Fitzroy

        Interestingly, a lot of economists are advocating a ‘creative destruction’ approach. This means that you let publicly listed companies go to the wall, while supporting the staff. Afterwards you can pick up the assets cheaply, re engage the workers and away you go. So using QANTAS as an example, Westfarmers will look to pick it up at cents in the dollar. The idea is that a public issuance of shares is a risk/gamble, and there is no real reason to bail out those companies.

        The point is that we have crossed a line, and are directly supporting workers, without the mutual obligation requirement – if that is not socialism, I need to buy a new dictionary.

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          Lance

          I’ll agree with your last sentence.

          The “staff” were functioning to support whatever the Company was doing pre mortem.

          Post Mortem, the Company was either not providing anything of value or became worthless in spite of their value.

          Post Mortem, the employees have basically zero value because either they weren’t economically viable or their Company wasn’t economically viable, or their product wasn’t economically viable.

          That said, I do hope the employees are independently wealthy, because without that, they will likely starve.

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            Slithers

            To Operate a soup kitchen you will need a license obtainable through Centrelink dualy witnessed by your local MP and local city manager. and a heft no indemnity insurance policy.

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          el gordo

          In this international emergency we appear to have crossed a line, but I suspect the free enterprise system is in our DNA and Westfarmers will pick up assets cheaply.

          ‘Wesfarmers Limited is an Australian conglomerate, headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, with interests predominantly in Australian and New Zealand retail, chemicals, fertilisers, coal mining and industrial and safety products. With AU$65.98 billion in the 2016 financial year, it is the largest Australian company by revenue, overtaking Woolworths and BHP. Wesfarmers is the largest private employer in Australia, with approximately 220,000 employees.’ wiki

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      OriginalSteve

      “we are all socialists now”

      Um no, no and hell no.

      Not even close.

      Youre dreaming….

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      MudCrab

      The ‘Right Wing Media’??

      Is that like a ‘Happily Married Feminist’?

      Or a ‘viable Green Economy’?

      ‘Baseload Renewables’?

      Take the Koala out of your mouth – I mean seriously, those things are filthy – and start backing your claims. Show us the accepted Conservative commentator who was crying that closed borders was racist.

      Also for giggles, why don’t you discuss the bans on renewable plastic bags and the push to avoid public transport in favour of travelling via personal motor vehicle and their compliance with the spirit of the New Green Deal et al.

      Come now, Peter. Face up to what you really are. At least I admit I am a troll.

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      I would move to warning about those threats when I see that people understand the microbial threat. Until the (mostly conservative) commenters start accepting that we have a major problem to deal with, the cost-benefit discussions are a waste of time.

      We have to get past the Chinese propaganda line “it’s just the flu” before we can discuss how to deal with it. But the virus moves too fast.

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      sophocles

      Congratulations, Peter …

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      Kalm Keith

      Can’t get to the Spectator article but the Catalaxy comment sums it up nicely.

      Worth reading.

      KK

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      RickWill

      Any dingbat trying to make a point in the UK that the government has overreacted is living in their own bubble. Just dangerous dingbats disregarding the bleeding obvious.

      Mike Pence has stated that China misled the world as to the severity of COVID19. There was plenty of information on what China was doing internally. No nation builds a massive hospital in two weeks for a seasonal flu outbreak. Nor do they go around locking people in their homes for the seasonal flu. By its nature, the health systems across the globe are geared to cope with seasonal flu. None could cope with COVID19 if it was permitted to run its own course.

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    Lance

    Flattening the curve is good. But it won’t get anyone very far into next year.

    What is killing people with COV19 is their own immune response and the accompanying cytokine cascade/storm.

    The world is 3 to 18 months away from a vaccine that “may” protect against the “known” genomes. But. The virus has already undergone some 20 to 40 mutations. So which one(s) are immunized if at all?

    Social distancing, hygiene, etc, are fundamentally necessary.

    Interrupting the RNA transcription in cells via hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin+zinc sulphate is the only known way to treat COVIDs “in progress” or to prophylactically prevent ARDS and the cytokine cascade response to infection.

    Yes, social distancing and testing and quarantines are “part” of the solution. But by no means, all.

    To win this thing, infections must be reduced, testing increased, treatment must be applied, ventilator production increased, hydroxychlorquine production increased, and some measure of common sense applied.

    There must be a cohesive plan. No single element will solve the problem. It has to be a coordinated plan.

    We know that social distancing/quarantine works. We know that hydroxychloroquine is effective. We know that the Chinese provided test kits have up to 80% failure rate. We do NOT know If/When a viable vaccine will exist. We need to make it through the next 6 months with some kind of plan based upon fact and reason.

    In the meantime, the world has lost some 34 Trillion USD in wealth. The US is losing 1 Trillion USD / Month and approaching a projected 32% Unemployment and an additional 2.2 to 3 Trillion USD in debt.

    Me and Mine are locked down. I’ve lost 40% of my retirement savings ( on paper) and it might get worse.

    There’s a point where locking everything down for too long means burning down everything so that there’s nothing left.

    We’re not there yet, but soon will be.

    So the question is: What is the Viable Plan to survive the Now and the Later?
    It has to be both, or there’s no point.

    UN is already demanding a world wide 10% tax on everything so they can “manage” the situation. Got their hand out, but done sweet FA about it. Just a naked power grab.

    Progressives/Socialists in the US are trying to frame the current situation as a perfect opportunity to impose vast expansions of Government, Debt, Power, Taxation, and Oppression to “save” everyone.

    Give it a think. A really hard think.

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      Kalm Keith

      Thanks for sharing but especially thanks for the Great detail given on so many aspects of this issue.

      Clear thinking is lacking at the top because we no longer value LEADERSHIP.

      KK

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        Lance — I agree with almost everything you say. I’m staggered though to be still discussing the basics of epidemiology with so many people still in denial that we face a major threat.

        The hard lockdown was only ever meant to be weeks, not months, as we gathered data and prepared. But politicians reached for the helicopter before they even stopped the viral threat, as if money could solve this.

        And for all the talk of viral scaremongers, there have been many economic scaremongers, but the viral scaremongers were right, the threat was immediate, obviously, as this graph set shows, a mere two weeks of action is saving many lives. The disruption of having 100,000 infections simultaneously running in a week in any major nation would bring down the economy temporarily anyhow.

        We have to get past the point where junk analysis of scattergraphs that doubt a textbook technique are considered worth publishing on a “science” forum.

        Ponder that medieval stonemasons had a better grip on epidemiology than some science commentators in 2020. I could have been scathing.

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      Mike Jonas

      Lance – good points/questions, but I think answers are emerging. The UK is looking at “immunity passoprts” so that people can go back to work. Here in Oz they are talking about being able to relax restrictions in 90 days. I think the various govts are moving from draconian blanket rules to more targeted rules, but they (feelthey) have to clamp down first in order for the message to get through to everyone and for the rules to be effective. JMHO.

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        Lance

        “Immunity Passports” are a political answer to a problem that doesn’t have a long term plan for solution.

        It sounds good, feels good, and does little.

        What if I got COV yesterday, tested for it today, got my immunity passport tomorrow, and became asymptomatic carrier the next day and died a week later after infecting 1000 people? I had an “Immunity Passport”, that meant nothing.

        In OZ, as in the US, relaxing restrictions in 90 days may be overtaken by events. No Nation can withstand 90 days of economic shutdown and survive without massive debt and tremendous financial losses.

        Targeted Rules mean ZERO unless there are Targeted Plans preceding them. Rules mean nothing without achievable plans.

        I get what you are saying. Reality does not move at the speed of Politics. It moves at its own speed.
        Sometimes you’re the windscreen and sometimes you’re the bug.

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          Graeme#4

          You raise a very interesting point Lance. How long can Australia remain in lockdown and still recover economically? My son has already been told to return to work by a large company.

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Lance, think you’ll find this comment useful – http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/coronavirus-treatment-antibodies-that-work-in-20-minutes-could-give-protection-for-8-weeks/#comment-2302896

      The lack of masks and advice given not to wear masks in the early stages was something close to criminal. Now we’re seeing countries where masks were mandatory from the outset have flattened their curves very quickly. Masks ought to be mandatory in all public places. Yet we’re only now seeing the original advice against wearing masks slowly change to “masks might help”.

      The real concern for the west is not so much the flattening of the curve but the fact no country that hasn’t mandated mask wearing has succeeded in collapsing the number of new infections. Those countries that have mandated mask wearing have greatly reduced infections quickly. So much so that many have graphed rates of infection that are visually more akin to a speed bumps than a bell curve.

      Could it be that something as simple as wearing masks accompanied by reasonable hand sanitation is the single biggest means of reducing infections? If so, the entire lockdown may have been unnecessary. If the New York doctor is right in the video within the comment above, we ought to very urgently be moving toward mandatory mask wearing, lifting the lockdown and following up with the things you have mentioned.

      I have an awful feeling the western medical establishment’s anchored thinking on masks and testing is catastrophic in scale.

      Watching the western government response to this pandemic has been like observing an overloaded jalopy swerving and skidding wildly on a wet road before eventually rolling over into a ditch and coming to an abrupt halt.

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        Lance

        Yes, Masks help a great deal. But they don’t solve the eventual, careless, infection, and resultant rebound of carriers. Masks don’t solve COV mutations. Masks don’t provide any defense against cytokine cascades.

        There are ZERO vaccines that will help in the next 3 to 6 months. In that time, even with masks, entire national economies, people’s lives/jobs/futures, will be gone. That’s what happens without a Plan that addresses the larger picture.

        It costs approximately USD 38 to treat one person with HCQ + Zn + Azithromycine AND provide them with prophylaxis of 100 mg/day of HCQ for 1 year. For the US, that is about 15 Billion USD. Not 2.2 Trillion in debt + 1 Trillion / month + a 40% loss of savings.

        Masks buy time. Social distancing and quarantine/isolation buy time. But there is a finite amount of time until it doesn’t matter any longer because there is no longer a functioning economy, health system, food/energy system, etc.

        Relying on any single factor is completely illusory.

        Immediate, Near/Short, Medium, and Long Term actions are necessary if any Nation is to survive this in any functional form.

        There are perhaps a dozen “promises” of vaccines out there, with timelines of 4 to 18 months and up to 3 years. What if nobody is around to use them or cannot afford to wait?

        Ventilators are promised in mass quantity in mere Months. But how many Nations can afford them or can afford to wait for them? Ventilators are a last resort for the compromised and terminal when prophylaxis can offset that.

        Eventually, there will be a “herd immunity” for the survivors, but without the elderly or compromised. Entire Nations may face Sovereign Bankruptcy. A generation might be wiped out financially.

        Masks Yes. HCQ Yes. Ventilators Yes. Vaccines Yes. In That Order.

        Massive National Debt and avoidable economic disruption: No.

        It isn’t a matter of “I’m Right and You Aren’t”. It is a matter of “What do you do in 90 Days”.

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          Sunni Bakchat

          Lance, I don’t share your pessimism or dystopian outlook. The human species has been through far worse and survived. There is some very clever thinking going on at the moment. There’s also a lot of anchored, backward and wooden thinking occurring.

          If you watched the video i posted, the doctor clearly states how virus transmission is occurring. Mutations and cytokine cascades are tomorrow’s problem if mask wearing is strictly adhered to. If people don’t wear masks it is surely their responsibility, if masks are freely available. It does not help for public advisories to be flip flopping on the efficacy of masks. Worse still many of the public health “experts” advising on masks haven’t yet understood the dynamic of this disease. In any case, weren’t we locking down primarily to preserve hospital resources in the short term? Is this now about one class of people trying to control a population?

          Vaccines are also tomorrow’s problem. I’d suggest it will take many years for a vaccine if one can even be found. All the media talk about vaccine is less than enlightened. Will people’s lives be gone? I’d suggest most will be back at work in the next few weeks with masks on, using sanitiser religiously. People will continue to contract this disease. It is inevitable.

          Agreed on the basic cost equation for HCQ+Zn+Zpac. How about this for a thought; what if the prophylactic amount of HCQ or CQ or just plain old Quinine is in-line with the standard anti-malarial dose of approximately 50mg per day? That means double the quinine and half the component quinine cost. What if the Zpac isn’t required except in cases of infection? That’s the major cost component removed from the formula. Have raised the issue on this blog numerous times and have only heard from negative know-alls who are about as wrong as the doctors suggesting masks are not required. Where’s the fresh, positive thinking? Where’s the lateral thinking?

          It is the height of linear thinking to suggest that buying time cannot transition into a risk based assessment of where we go to next.

          Relying on a single factor has led to some of the greatest leaps forward in the history of medicine. Lets start with Semmelweis and his insistence on hand washing. Lets look at Florey and his accidental observation of the effect of anti-biotics. Fast forward to Marshall and his need to drink a container of Helicobacter pylori to prove his point to the scientific world. As far as Coronavirus is concerned, the wearing of masks will be the single, most economic measure to bring the pandemic under control. It is so obviously sitting right before our eyes in the way the eastern countries have tackled the problem. It can only come back to failure of logical thought in the medical fraternity that wearing masks has not been adopted more rapidly. Alas Semmelweis spent his entire life fighting against those who were “smarter” than him.

          Medium and long term measures will come. Chloroquine and Zinc therapy looks like it will be hugely successful. Doctors trialling this therapy report unequivocally 100% success at avoiding intubation. Perhaps spend a day going through all of the reports on this therapy. The last doctor i listened to on the subject, was the head of infectious diseases at one of the leading hospitals in the world in the US. His words were “this therapy is the beginning of the end of the coronavirus pandemic”. Hang the vaccine; we’ve got a therapeutic solution waiting to go right now. Doesn’t sound like the end of the world to me!

          Living too far out into the future inevitably leads to fear. It’s today’s problems that need solving. We’ll all be back to work soon. Solutions won’t be perfect, but they’ll do until we find something better.

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        beowulf

        Speaking of masks, here’s a video showing the ability of micro-droplets to be ejected from the mouth merely during conversation and heavy breathing. It also films a sneeze effect and models a cough. The Japanese filmed the droplets under laser light to show how they propagate through the air between people conversing, and hang in the air column for a considerable time in still air.

        https://youtu.be/vBvFkQizTT4

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          Graeme#4

          Interesting and scary, to see how far the micro droplets spread, and the fact that they remained suspended in the air for over 10 minutes.

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      William Astley

      Lance, I have the same concerns. We have unintentionally created an economic crisis, in addition to the covid crisis.

      What if the government requires everyone to wear a mask in public and only isolated the most vulnerable people to reduce the death rate, as on alternative to complete isolation? Those most at risk will by their own choice stay in isolation until there is vaccine. Keep the ban on large gatherings.

      Covid-19 is now here to stay in every country. There are more than a million cases in the world and it looks as if it will spread to every country in the world.

      Extreme isolation is economic suicide. It is difficult to even imagine, how serious the economic problem is that we have created. Every country had borrowed to the maximum, prior to covid event.

      Countries where a large portion of their GDP was from tourism are now in a crisis. We have never had large countries, with significant GDPs, such as France, Italy, and Spain, default on loans. Banks will/may fail. The EU will likely fail.

      There are too many problems and not enough money. Countries are going to be forced to cut government salaries and to lay off people to adjust to their new lower yearly tax revenue. They cannot borrow until their economies return to what they were prior to covid. It may be a decade or more before our economies recover to post covid times.

      Has anyone watched the Ken Burns documentary on the depression in the US? This event is different as we have killed both demand and supply. Stimulate spending therefore does not fix our problem, does not restart tourism and does not bring back the small businesses that have started to declare bankruptcy. The problem there gets worse the longer we stay in lock down.

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        Lance

        Agreed.

        My point is that all the emphasis has been on “flattening the curve” and not equally focused on “what do we do next?”.

        With some 40 mutations currently measured, we are not fighting One virus, we are fighting a “family of viruses”.

        There is Zero guarantee that any vaccine will protect against the current 40 variants and however many might occur.

        Nobody seems to have an overall plan to address how one treats the immediate, the near, and the far term, infections.

        Thus far, it appears that diminishing the cytokine storm helps the immediate to survive, with or without ventilators. That seems to derive from hydroxychloroquine and zinc with azithromycin as a treatment cocktail with HCQ prophylaxis longer term. That’s the cheap way out until “we” know much more than we do at present.

        It isn’t the virus that is fatal. It is the immune response to the virus that causes the cytokine storm/cascade that damages lungs, requires ventilators, and results in death. Dampening/quieting that storm is paramount, only secondary to preventing initial infections. But. Some variant WILL infect every single person at some point in the future. We need more tools in our toolkit. Masks, HCQ, Ventilators, Vaccines. There is NO magic bullet. It is a layered approach.

        If “we” don’t embrace the layered approach, there won’t be any economy to return to, even if we all survive.

        The “models” are predicting some 3 to 4 times the actual deaths seen in reality. Models need to be recalibrated after they have spurred governments into recognition and action. Now we need to focus on effectiveness and efficiency.

        If we don’t do that, the survivors will face a future as bleak or worse than the one they fear even now.

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          Yes, Lance, I agree that the obsession with vaccines is mislaid. I have always said that the antivirals will save us.

          Hows the vaccine for AIDS going?

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      OriginalSteve

      Anti-malaria meds working wonders….who needs a potentially unnecessary vaccine?

      https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/01/battlefield-medicine-ny-nj-doctors-patients-see-anecdotal-evidence-hydroxychloroquine-benefits-fighting-coronavirus/

      “Doctors who have treated a combined total of over 425 confirmed or presumptive Chinese coronavirus patients with the drug hydroxychloroquine told Breitbart News they are finding the medication to be helpful.

      “The doctors stressed that more long-term studies are needed to draw concrete scientific conclusions about hydroxychloroquine and Chinese coronavirus. But they said they decided to act because they felt it was safe and because the coronavirus pandemic does not leave any time to wait for what could be months or even years of clinical trials.

      [snip]

      “Two days ago, the FDA issued emergency approval to distribute millions of doses of hydroxychloroquine to hospitals across the country for use in treating coronavirus.

      “The doctors interviewed for this article practice in the hard-hit areas of New York or New Jersey. They say none of their patients experienced strong side effects from the medication cocktail.

      “The hydroxychloroquine treatment is not believed to kill coronavirus. Instead it could protect cellular lining from further penetration. This could mean that if it does work, the drug cocktail would likely have more success in patients who are in the early or middle stages of infection and would be less effective in those who are already in critical condition. Indeed, that is what the doctors say they have been finding.

      [snip]

      ““This is battlefield medicine and the use of real time frontline assessment,” said Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, who practices family medicine with mostly ultra-Orthodox Jewish patients near the Orange County, New York, village of Kiryas Joel. The tightknit community has seen a deluge of coronavirus cases in recent weeks.

      [Please don't post whole articles that need snipping. Thanks. Jo]

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        OriginalSteve

        Hi Ed,

        Feel free to trim it if need be, it was quite along article

        Alternatively you could use this version :

        Anti-malaria meds working wonders….who needs a potentially unnecessary vaccine?

        https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/01/battlefield-medicine-ny-nj-doctors-patients-see-anecdotal-evidence-hydroxychloroquine-benefits-fighting-coronavirus/

        “Doctors who have treated a combined total of over 425 confirmed or presumptive Chinese coronavirus patients with the drug hydroxychloroquine told Breitbart News they are finding the medication to be helpful.

        “The doctors stressed that more long-term studies are needed to draw concrete scientific conclusions about hydroxychloroquine and Chinese coronavirus. But they said they decided to act because they felt it was safe and because the coronavirus pandemic does not leave any time to wait for what could be months or even years of clinical trials.

        “Their experiences are not meant to be taken as controlled scientific trials. Studies are clearly required to more conclusively determine whether the hydroxychloroquine indeed played a role in patient recovery or whether those same patients would have recovered anyway without the medication.

        “Even if hydroxychloroquine is found to be helpful, more research is needed to determine whether the drug needs to be combined with other medication, and which amounts should be used. Some of the doctors interviewed for this article prescribed hydroxychloroquine along with zinc sulfate, and in many cases combined the drug with an antibiotic regimen.

        “There are also concerns about the supply chain for hydroxychloroquine. Hospitals are reportedly seeking to stockpile the drug in anticipation of a flood of coronavirus patients and many pharmacies say they are experiencing a massive number of prescription requests for hydroxychloroquine sulfate.

        “Hydroxychloroquine sulfate is a Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved prescription arthritis medicine that is also used to prevent malaria, and has been prescribed to treat lupus symptoms. It is also known by the brand name Plaquenil. The extra demand could cause a shortage for lupus and arthritis patients already using the medication regularly.

        “Two days ago, the FDA issued emergency approval to distribute millions of doses of hydroxychloroquine to hospitals across the country for use in treating coronavirus.

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      PeterS

      Good points Lance. I fear the long term future though.

      The current disaster must be taken as a golden opportunity for this nation to change direction. Left leaning nonsense should be treated as on par with terrorism. The Paris Agreement must go. Restriction on nuclear energy must go. Coal fired power stations must be built. The push to more renewables must be put on hold until they can compete on their own. We hardly have the finances to keep going down the renewables road using the technology of the day as the real cost would be in the trillions. We need to reinstate a lot of the manufacturing we’ve lost over the decades. Relying on commodities exports will no longer suffice. These are just for starters. There’s a lot more that has to be done to revive our economy and make it grow again. Those actions need to be done ASAP not in years or decades. We don’t have the luxury of time any more. We did before but now the “patient” is dying due to a large shock and it needs emergency assistance. We are still sinking and there is no going back to the way things were before the pandemic. That is the key point. It’s all changed forever. We now have to build for a new future that’s completely different to the past if we are to survive. Too many still are underestimating the seriousness of the situation. The world has changed too so we need to accommodate that change in order to survive.

      We can also avoid looking at conspiracy theories. Without hard evidence they are not worth a cracker. What we do know is China has been negligent and should be dragged kicking and screaming if necessary, to change their attitudes towards the rest of the world. Although the Chinese people are by and large respectable and nice, the Communist Party of China is ruthless, two-faced and unforgiving. The rest of the world needs to get their act together and do something about it. Of course it won’t be easy so I won’t be holding my breath on that part.

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    Alan Tomalty

    What Willis Eschenbach found is that no strategy of partial lockdown has worked. We in Canada have had lockdown for 10 days and our cases are still increasing. Grocery stores have not been closed. You are just as likely to catch the virus there than anywhere else. The only reason to lockdown is to give your health system a chance to get up to speed. In the long run you cannot stop this virus from spreading to most of the population unless you are willing to lockdown forever.

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      Raving

      Not sure if the lockdown is working yet. We have had a lot of returning snowbirds and such. Also the lockdown has been quite lose until recently. Look at the parks shops and road traffic. That seems to happen in other countries too. Upswing in cases make people more serious about it.

      Never seen more people out and about on the streets, exercising and distancing

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      RickWill

      Willis found nothing. He is putting his own interpretation on data and misleading people silly enough to take note. He does not even consider Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and other countries with effective strategies because they do not meet his threshold.

      It takes around 30 days from a lock down before it begins to show up in death statistics, which is what Willis is basing all his dingbat theories on. Typically up to 10 days to get the required contact to be infected, 3 days of asymptomatic build up, then 7 days before presentation to hospital then a few days for assessment (depending on state at presentation) before 10 days on a ventilator awaiting death. The period gets shorter as the hospitals become overwhelmed but then the death rate is also meaningless because bodies are left at home.

      Italy has had quite a dramatic reduction in death rate with doubling now out to 8 days. Their lock down is beginning to bear results. As far as I have looked, only Washington State has had the time with controls to show the benefits. Death rate in WA is out to doubling every 7 days. Thay may avoid overwhelming their hospitals.

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        Thumbs up from me RickWill.

        Alan, thanks for the tip. Watching Canada in two to three days…

        Raving, our lockdown is weak too. I’d estimate peak hour traffic is still at 60% (at a guess). Schools only really properly emptied in the last week.

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        Analitik

        I absolutely agree. Willis has been writing from a predetermined conclusion, just like the climate scientists that he deplores, rather than accepting facts from both past and present for controlling this outbreak. He seems to be the holdout at WWWT – both Larry Krummer and Rudd Istvan have gone silent on the outbreak.

        Back to Alan

        In the long run you cannot stop this virus from spreading to most of the population

        No one of any note has said that quarantining will reduce the number of INFECTIONS.

        What it does (as you did note) is reduce the stress on the health care system so that it has the capacity to treat all life threatening cases including BUT NOT EXCUSIVELY those with CoViD-19. In this case, DEATHS are reduced, including those from causes other than CoViD-19. When the health care system is overwhelmed with infection cases, then doctors are forced to triage to allocate resources so people who might otherwise survive will not get the required treatment if they are deemed less likely to survive.

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    TdeF

    Mathematically any time something is proportional to what is already there, the curve is an exponential. So the number of infected people determines the next number of infected people. As most people plot total infections, the curve is an exponential but given that the illness lasts three weeks for most and infection takes a day, the curve is a very slow way to determine success.

    The derivative of an exponential, the slope is the key. It is also an exponential but the graphs shown above are plotted on a linear scale because they are not. Even Italy. Which is great. That is because governments acted quickly, but the numbers of course kept growing because the infections were already in place and take time to realise. And in Italy, hug a Chinese person today must in hindsight have been the st*pidest thing ever done.

    So despite the ongoing deaths and increasing numbers in the US, isolation is the key. Get the infections down fast, at the start. I fear for Sweden but so far they are matching Norway next door except that they have twice the number of people. I also fear for Russia. They have no choice but mass transit and the underground in Moscow means 11 million trips a day. Luckily winter is over.

    My simple line projection shows we will be down to a few new cases a day in about ten days. These have to be explained and then perhaps two weeks after that, the virus is dead. I have no idea how to restart the place, but I suggest the lockdown will be completely over in three weeks with instructions to wear masks, maintain a distance, avoid big functions like music festivals, football, masses, crowds if possible.

    The interesting question is how to open the country for business.

    And tourism for a period should be in Australia or perhaps the South Pacific. Tahiti anyone? New Zealand? Rottnest Island?

    Australia might also boom later this year for international tourism, from approved countries and with incoming testing. For the flu as well.

    One way to get Australian back on its feet is to get those 1 million people a month to holiday in Australia. That would make a huge difference for rural Australia and our economy.

    Virus free, we might see a lot of Americans who are scared to go to Europe or simply not allowed.

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      TdeF

      And calling the Wuhan Virus, as the North Koreans do, is not racist. China is a country. Wuhan is a place. Saying the virus came from Wuhan, China is not racist, it is a fact accepted as Donland Trump said by the Chinese themselves. If you said the Americans have an expensive health system, that is not racist. It is ridiculous and insulting the way the left of politics always brand people racist, xenophobic, sexist.

      Denier is another made up insult. There is nothing to deny in man made Climate Change. It is a ridiculous fact free zone, but saying so is some sort of denial. Apparently.

      And the Wuhan virus is from Wuhan. Probably escaped from the Chinese army’s Wuhan Institute of Virology who likely created it. Maybe they will issue a patent on it? These things can be patented now. Then we will know to send the bills to the People’s Liberation Army of China. That’s not racist. We also know they will not pay.

      This pandemic and the hiding of the truth which will cost vast number of lives will produce a massive realignment in business and politics. I wonder if President Xi will be President in a few months?

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      • #

        Just adding to what TdeF writes here, if you seriously believe ANY of those numbers coming out of China, There’s this bridge in Sydney that I can get you some shares in.

        I live in hope that China will be called to account for all of this, but I doubt it.

        And if any of you correlate the way I deal with this data compared to the way I accept the electrical power data coming out of China, they are two completely different things, and besides, that electrical power data sets of figures is something China is actually proud of, and don’t want to cover up.

        Tony.

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          I don’t see a problem. If you are suspicious of data exclude it. The amount of data is now so great that China’s is not needed.

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            Raving

            yeah but the amount of data isn’t so great. It’s all over the map. That in itself is interesting and revealing of the chaotic approach underlying treatment

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            Lance

            How does one exclude data that is hidden or otherwise compromised?

            If we knew what was hidden, it wouldn’t be hidden, and then it could be excluded.

            If we don’t know what was hidden or compromised, it cannot be excluded and thus serves to obfuscate analysis.

            Hidden data on 1.5 Billion people in a pandemic situation overshadows everything that is otherwise known.

            How do you propose to compensate for that?

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            • #

              exclude China. There is data on a million cases. There is a lot of information there that would be muddied by including bad data.

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        PTR

        There is something that troubles me about the progress of this disease and the circumstances relating to it. It maybe just circumstantial, and based on here-say evidence. Sometime ago, I read a report on this blog, that there had been a mass round-up of dog and cat (?) pets in Wuhan, and they were subsequently destroyed. More recently, there was a report somewhere (?) in the media that a small dog, pet, of an old lady in Hong Kong was found to be carrying anti-bodies for the virus. I have seen nothing further to confirm that this linkage occurs. I initially thought the Wuhan extermination, was a likely response to having then uncared for animals lose in the city. But then, if it was known that there was\is the possibility of cross infection near the time of the outbreak, then that may have been the reason for the pet destruction. If that were so, how, when and where was that knowledge ascertained? Ah!, that old conspiracy thing again.

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          A dog in Belgium or the netherlands has also been found to carry the virus. What we don’t know is if dogs and cats can produce viable virus to share with other dogs and cats. We need to know that.

          That 25 year old in Wuhan with Wuflu last november — his kitten died in a week. Chinese people react as though pets are carriers, but it could be a fear response, or it could be real.

          The Chinese hid so much. That’s why I watched their behaviour on Twitter in Jan so closely and I knew this was going to be awful unless for some genetic or weather reason we could be spared.

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      Geoff Sherrington

      TdeF,
      Before you talk of future tourist, you must ask if there should be any future tourism. Like sport, selling international education, entertainment, media and gambling, we need to ask if society needs them. There is a good argument that our national economic restart should concentrate exclusively on manufacturing, mining and agriculture – sectors where we can have international natural advantage and an ability to create new wealth, rather than circulating existing wealth.
      We need to ask if we should continue with money circulation industries, rather than wealth creation industries, for no better reason than we grew up with them and cannot make the mental jump to get rid of them. Geoff S

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        TdeF

        A good point, if extreme. If the entire world could afford it, could Venice cope with everyone wanting to go there? It would be destroyed. Las Vegas has 500 tourist planes a day, but it is continually being rebuilt. Wartburg castle is another, where people want to see where Martin Luther threw his inkpot at the devil and it splased on the wall. Every year they plaster the wall and throw another one.

        I would despair if the whole world went to the Taj Mahal. The queues of Chinese waiting to get into Saint Chappelle in Paris now mean I cannot visit my favourite spot, without queuing forever. The Hermitage in St.Petersburg is another. I was thrilled to be in front of the funderal mask of Tutenkhamun in the Museum in Cairo, with no one around. The elections were happening and tourists were scared to go and the US had advised against it. Normally you would get a glimpse for a few second through a crowd.

        So what sort of tourism. Cultural, bucket list, educational, geographical? Sometimes it is only tourism which keeps places like the Taj Mahal going and maintained, so the curse is the savior. Venice too would disappear without tourism. Most of the flooding is from the huge deep gaps in the lagoon barrier made to the South for industrial shipping for the petrochemical industry.

        And Egypt. Without its history, why would anyone go to such an uncomfortable third world country? That is why terrorist attacks target the tourist industry. The rest of the 81 million people are at the level of subsistence agriculture.

        So I do not know. The answer is, like everything else, balance. Economic interdependence also helps prevent wars and tourism is a big part of that.

        As for manufacturing, we have none. The electricity is too expensive, thanks to the ripoff in our bills. The same coal based power is now 10x the price and the cash is gifted to the Profiteers of Doom. That has to stop. Personally I would love to see Turnbull’s st*pid Snowy II stopped now. Like our $800million North South pipeline in Victoria, used once. To make a flood worse.

        The first step to get this country going is to remove the ripoff. That would benefit everyone. Not another rotten windmill. And if people want Chinese solar panels, let them buy them at full price, not with our money.

        Future tourists. I don’t think you should or could stop tourism. My concern is virus tourism. I think quarantine after travelling overseas will be necessary from now on. That will put a brake on weekends in Singapore or a cheap wedding in Vietnam.

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    TdeF

    It is great to see our curve flatten as infections slow and stop!

    Just under us you see Norway and Sweden. Very similar curves given that Norway has half the population of Sweden. Both have a natural advantage of small cities and very distributed populations. Stockholm is under a million people in a country of 10.5 million. Still the have a comparable number of infections to Australia at the same point, despite that fact that Norway is a fifth of the population and Sweden /2.5.

    The actual population is irrelevant really and only becomes significant when the number of infections starts to be limited by population and that is not true anywhere. As the virus is 100% imported by definition, it is a question of points of entry for the virus. More points, more infection. And then population density. Australia really has only a few points of entry for international tourists as we are an island.

    Sweden is likely throwing away its geographic advantage. If anyone thinks herd immunity is the way to go, as Boris Johnson did, as the Dutch did and as so many very pragmatic doctors did, they are utterly wrong. Australia has proven that in a few weeks. Great.

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      Rolf

      Sweden : advice to people is

      1. when feeling sick stay at home
      2. Only when really ill, call ambulance for transport to hospital
      3. some other smaller advice (No gathering, go to school .. ).

      Test occurs only when sick people arrive at hospital. This means we have to calculate infected people from number of deaths. That number is way more than reported. This means there will be a lot more deaths before the death rate curve will flatten. We can not compare cases in Sweden with any other country, only deaths. Sweden now have 30 deaths per million and it’s better to compare this number. Australia has 1 (ONE), USA 17. Only UK is worse 43. So USA need to double their toll from today to match Sweden. I would say government in Sweden has performed really bad in spite of having a very good playground to make an excellent result. They blew it in the start and they blew it with their strategy. Sweden now getting speed and accelerate faster than UK.

      Example. Today the papers report 33% of homes for elderly, most with dementia or Alzheimers, are infected. Either from relatives or personal. Personal don’t have any PPE at these locations so we can assume all of them will be infected in the future. The advice is to protect the elderly but there is no plan on how.

      Interesting now is

      When counting backwards from death I get infections in Sweden, first check the doubling rate. It is 2.6 days ! Now, 308 dead och med 10% mortality up to 200.000 are infected. So what will the demand on ICU’s be ? (Sweden has the lowest available numbers in Europe). 10 days ago, Government (G from now on), knew bout 2000 infections but in reality there was 24.000. From these the demand on ICU’s today is 429 or let’s say 2%. Today we have 200.000 infections and the demand in 10 days from now will be about 4.000 ICU’s. G said the demand for ICU’s will not exceed 800. They will be deemed wrong (again) next week.

      G in Sweden are soon to be aware what they have done. They should be hold accountable.

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        Raving

        Given 2 m Swedes aged 65 or older and a 5-10% mortality rate, it translates to between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths if everyone was infected
        https://countrymeters.info/en/Sweden#age_structure

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          Rolf

          Mortality over 65 is probably way higher than 5-10%. 65-69 is in that region. 70-80 higher and above 80 …..

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        TdeF

        Yes, their experiment in the lives of the Swedish people is unconscionable. It was a question of comfort and business over lives. To be fair, other governments thought the same thing, that they would ride it out, get herd immunity and lose a few old people. Britain, the Nederlands, even Australia hesitated. Then everyone saw Italy, where the health system is good and the lockdown fast.

        Apart from the severity of the illness, as the American expert Dr. Birx said, they did not know about the ‘infectibility’, even transmission by surfaces. They thought the very sick were the entire problem, not the vast number of people with few or no symptoms. So just another bad flu. Not the death potentially of 10% of the population. Voters and tax payers.

        Now the cost in lives lost and damage done will be terrible. Birx is blaming the Chinese who could have come clean about the incredible ‘infectability’. That however was the invention of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. So they covered it up. They not only covered up the fact of the virus, they allowed millions of Chinese to travel overseas, one million alone to America and hid what was happening and even why it was happening. And the fact that most people were asymptomatic.

        If that had been known, every country in the world would have slammed the doors. And WHO would still be saying it was all fine and not China’s fault.

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        Rolf, those numbers are terrible. Sigh.

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        Analitik

        Great post, Rolf. Sweden is the case that Willis Eschenbach will back on with shame (I assume he will be honest with himself in hindsight).

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    Gary

    All of the so-called data on here seems to come from the self-appointed oracle known as Worldometer. I would like to suggest an alternative for those few remaining sceptics – information drawn from numerous specialists and others with first-hand experience of this ‘epidemic’ around the world: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/#latest. It contains links to every ‘fact’mentioned and has been updated daily since mid-March.
    Why continue to be a part of this media epidemic? Why let a perfectly good civilisation go to waste?

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    Chad

    None of these charts can be relied on as accurate, (possibly even missleading ?). Since the data has not been corrected for sample size.
    A “Daily New cases” count is garbage without knowing how many tests were taken (people tested).that day
    Basic data analysis practice !

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      Chad

      Japan is a very unreliable data source for extrapolation..
      As of today, they have only tested 34,500 people with a +ve result from 2400., but with 57 deaths ?
      This from a population of 126 million !

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        Rolf

        Japan CFR is around 2.5% not extreme. Only 69 in ICU, that match pretty well 2-3% of cases. They have to do an excellent tracking.

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      Environment Skeptic

      Some good news from a much anticipated recent study endorsed by Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, in a recent open letter to the German Chancellor Dr. Angela Merkel.

      https://www.globalresearch.ca/open-letter-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/5708004

      From https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300972
      “SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data”
      Author YanisRousselabAudreyGiraud-GatineauacdeMarie-ThérèseJimenoeJean-MarcRolainabChristineZandottiabPhilippeColsonabDidierRaoultab

      “Highlights

      •Comparison of incidence and mortality rates of four common coronaviruses circulating in France with those of SARS-COV-2 in OECD countries.

      •As of 2 March 2020, 90 307 patients had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, with 3086 deaths (mortality rate 3.4%).

      •As of 2 March 2020, among OECD countries, 7476 patients had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with 96 deaths (mortality rate 1.3%)

      •As of 2 March 2020, in France, 191 people had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with three deaths (mortality rate 1.6%).

      •In OECD countries. the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (1.3%) is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France (0.8%; P=0.11). [my bolding]

      •The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. [my bolding]

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        Raving

        Good news. There are about 17 m citizens in France over the age of 60. At a CFR of 3.6%, 100% infection rate and zero fatalities below age 60 it translates to 600,000 senior deaths

        France will save a bundle on pensions

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        Rolf

        There is a difference between mortality and CFR. You are referencing CFR which will raise with time. World wide right now 5.13% and raising. Mortality right now worldwide 19.61% will top and then decline and finally be the same as CFR.

        It’s better to compare with mortality using a 11-12 day lag, it will probably be closing in on a better value faster. Today 5.80%.

        World population 7,8 billion means we may have 270 million dead (60% infection rate). Now that was before we knew this s-t is airborne, so R0 is not 2.5 rather the earlier discussed 7 or more. That means 60% is far from enough, we need more. Almost 90% need to be infected. That also raises the stake in bodies. It may end up with 400,000,000. Guess the price is a bit high ? Didn’t mention it may be way higher if there is no medicine and no hospitals.

        And India, Indonesia and other (hot) spots are just at the beginning. We will probably not have any idea about the true number in the end. They will just not make any post mortem. It will only be a fire or a spade.

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          Raving

          the only reliable approximate fatality estimates are for aged individuals. They tend to die once infected. The virtual dead bodies pile up through some statistic somewhere or other.

          Its hard to estimate the infection rate in younger individuals by sake of being hidden. Dont die, no signs of distress. Never know what is being missed

          Will the world notice the early demise of 5% of it’s elderly citizens? Epidemics happen. Old story which may not matter.

          On the other hand old folks have lots of assets and investments that require liquidating/liberating/disposing once deceased. Boomers are the top 10% of wealth maybe ???

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    Bill In Oz

    It is an American perspective But
    This is an excellent article about how this viral disease spread across the world.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

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      TdeF

      As I wrote above, from now on quarantine will likely become a standard fact of travel. Flying to Los Angeles for the day will be illegal. Or the week. That will not affect students and a lot of business can be done over the internet. It will means international trips will be three weeks not one. Maybe a week’s isolation each end.

      This used to be the case when ships moved so slowly. It will be the case again.

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    Sunni Bakchat

    From today’s London Telegraph. Eminent German Virologist finds a lot less virus lurking about than might be expected!

    “Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany’s worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe. Prof Streeck said the home of an infected family his team visited “did not have any live virus on any surface” including on phones, door knobs or even the pet cat’s fur. He told German TV “there are no proven infections while shopping or at the hairdresser” and that Germany’s “patient zero” only infected her colleagues and not other guests or diners at the hotel where she was staying. “The virus spreads in other places: the party in Ischgl, the club in Berlin, the football game in Bergamo,” he said. “We know it’s not a smear infection that is transmitted by touching objects, but that close dancing and exuberant celebrations have led to infections.” He said he was not calling for the end to social distancing but there remained unknowns about the virus that may throw current guidance into doubt.”

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    RexAlan

    I really prefer to use this site for Australian corona virus statistics.

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/

    They have a really good breakdown per state plus so much more.

    It is a non government site, there is a donation button at the bottom of the cases page.

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      Ross

      Agree Rex, great site and they have started to present data showing the number of positives as a percentage of test done which is what should have been done from the start.

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        Ross

        I should have added that we all have to remember that the testing is being done on those that have travelled and/ or are showing symptoms so it is a skewed sample. I think we can assume assume if the testing was on a truly random sample of the population the positive percentage would be lower.

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      Chad

      Sorry guys..
      All i see on that site is just raw daily case numbers. No correction for testing quantities.
      Which makes any comparason betwen states or countries a joke.

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        Ross

        Click on the highlighted ” New: testing data” page, Chad.

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          Chad

          Ahh !.. thanks , i see it now.
          Interesting relationship between the number of tests/100k by state,….and the % of +ve results ! ( with a couple of exceptions ?)
          IE:, the more of the population that is tested,..the lower the % +ve results .
          They should plot that also, as it seems to suggest the real population of +ve results would be around the 1.0% level !

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        RexAlan

        Hi Chad, I found the site didn’t work properly in Firefox. I use the Chromium browser and it works fine. Try another browser.

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        Raving

        Testing quantities don’t mean much either. Shortage of tests means they are only given to those where it’s most important to know the results

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          Chad

          Yes “test numbers” can be very variable.
          Some states (NSW) actually report the daily number of tests AND the number of PEOPLE actually tested that day on one day i noticed NSW reported 5500 tests but only 2400 people tested !

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            Raving

            And the antibody test is required to know if an infection occured in the past. You need that test for an ‘Immunity passport’

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          Ross

          That is right Raving and I said above if random testing was done on the whole population then the % positive would be well below the approx. 2% in each state.

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            Raving

            Iceland is supposed to have done some random testing. Havent heard reports of it being done elsewhere

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              Chad

              Germany is effectively random testing. ( but obviously biased with healthcare workers included). And reported to be targeting 100,000 tessts per day !
              Remember also Taiwan with widespread testiing, and the Diamond Princess Cruise boat where 100% of the 3700 on board were tested revealing 712 +ve tests and 10 deaths…. but that would not be a “typical” or normal population sample……..age group and confined location etc.

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    george1st:)

    How many PHD’s are needed to change a light bulb ?
    Common sense wins again .
    Close down the source and it will halt .
    Let it run uncontained to achieve immunity will infect millions in every country .
    Billions throughout the world .
    No medical system could cope with even a fraction , millions would die causing huge economic and social impacts not just in a couple of weeks
    but in months and years to follow .
    The Swedes will soon be battening down the hatches when they start to really see the consequences on the scoreboard .

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    OriginalSteve

    Interesting…

    https://greatgameindia.com/transcript-bioweapons-expert-dr-francis-boyle-on-coronavirus/

    “TRANSCRIPT: Bioweapons Expert Dr. Francis Boyle On Coronavirus

    “By GreatGameIndia -February 5, 2020| Last modified on March 22nd, 2020 at 9:28 pm,
    A recent interview with Bioweapons expert Dr. Francis Boyle published by GreatGameIndia and conducted by Geopolitics & Empire, has been exploding across the world the past few days as the truth is emerging on the origins of the Coronavirus Bioweapon.

    “Francis Boyle is a professor of international law at the University of Illinois College of Law. He drafted the U.S. domestic implementing legislation for the Biological Weapons Convention, known as the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, that was approved unanimously by both Houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by President George H.W. Bush.

    [Probably much more interesting.... https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/02/fake-news-no-evidence-to-support-claim-from-bioweapons-expert-who-says-coronavirus-is-biological-warfare-weapon.html We must try hard to remain critical of "news reports" ] ED

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    King Geo

    And how many Covid-19 deaths have impacted on serial smokers? e.g. Italy – a nation of adult serial smokers, ie these damning stats: until recently ~10% of those infected dying. Italy still has a high % of serial adult smokers – and it was worse before the Italian Govt banned smoking in public places in 2005 – sure many stopped smoking but their lungs were still compromised by this insidious habit. I checked the numbers: in 2018 ~ 35% of adult Italians were smokers – factor in those who quit post 2005 then you have close to 50% of adult Italians with compromised lungs – a high risk group to the Covid-19 virus.

    When this “high fatality stat” comes to everyone’s attention will Govt’s like Italy “ban smoking” once and for all – a much easier transition here in Oz where the numbers of adult smokers are considerably lower – thus maybe explaining why our death rate for Covid-19 infections is way less than 10%, ie ~ 0.5%.

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      Raving

      Any how bad is the air has been at other times and places? Consider the killer fogs in Londonfrom coal burning. How about the killer fogs caused by volcanic eruptions in Iceland? How about the smoke from massive natural wildfires or the smoke from wood burning.

      Human history is full of dusty smokey mouldy chemically laden air

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      Gary

      As well as high smoking rates (as in China), that northern part of Italy centred on the Po Valley has easily the most air pollution in all of Europe, with very high rates of respiratory illness In a good year. Also something like 300,000 (legal) Chinese immigrants have arrived in Lombardy over recent years to take over the struggling textile industry (struggling due to competition from China?), plus who knows how many illegal sweat shop workers. And guess where many of them returned to for Chinese New Year? Plus being a country having one of the oldest age profiles on the planet, plus having too few icus which are at 90% capacity every winter anyway – which collapsed already a few flu seasons ago, etc etc

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      Roger Knights

      “When this “high fatality stat” comes to everyone’s attention will Govt’s like Italy “ban smoking” once and for all”

      It would be much easier to do if vaping were promoted in its place, as addicted smokers would be less likely to resist passage or seek black market sources.

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    MudCrab

    Okay.

    Jo has refenced WikiPee in her post as a supporting reference regarding Japan’s tactics vs Wuhan Virus.

    Since there seems to be a disagreement c.f. the WUWT article I had a quick looking at the linked WikiPee article and found this.

    Apart from individual quarantine measures, Japan does not have any laws that allow the government to restrict the movement of people in order to contain the virus. Compliance with government requests to restrict movements is based on “asking for public cooperation to ‘protect people’s lives’ and minimize further damage to [the economy]“.[

    So, if I am interpreting correctly Japan does NOT have enforced home isolation which also suggests that given Japan’s current nominal success in regards to Wuhan Virus, there actually IS doubt that isolation having a practical affect.

    When is it going to end?

    Where is the exit strategy?

    Like the history snobs say – Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar.

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      Raving

      The Japanese society has been intensely shaped by neverending eathquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Expect they are well adapted to adjust for plagues

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      Chad

      Mudcrab,
      Note also that Japan has done very little testing …34,500 people todate…. (but 57 cv19 deaths ?)…. so its risky to draw any conclusions on the situation regarding cv19 there based on that limited sample from a population of 126 million.

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    • #

      Mudcrab, I knew of the Japanese shut down of schools because I reported it at the time. I don’t like Wikipedia for obvious reasons but at 3am and with a staff of 0, I use what I can get.

      Looking for media stories from one month ago is possible, but time consuming.

      Japan has one of the most homogeneous populations and intelligent/educated and wealthy cultures in the world. Asking people to stay home voluntarily would have a higher chance of success there than in almost any other nation.

      Since they faced SARS in 2002 I am not surprised they got this right. I was astonished they stuffed up with the Diamond Princess.

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    TdeF

    One fact from my lifetime of travel is that I always carried my innoculations book. It was an important part of international travel and no one has ever asked for it at Immigrations and Customs, which used to be also about pests, diseases, foreign flora and fauna. It has stopped being about the people themselves.

    I can see that a complete set of innoculations including Corona Virus will be necessary for entering any country and even returning home. For example over 750,000 people traveled from China to America in the first two months of this year. The level of international travel is amazing. Even when you slam the door shut! There is always a reason.

    So once the innoculation is available, it will be mandatory, not to protect the visitor from endemic infections (cholera, yellow fever, hepatitis, pertussis, …., corona virus) but also to protect the country being visited. A virus free Australia should be our aim. Then people will need innoculations against common forms of the flu as well. That will save thousands of lives in Australia and
    60,000 lives a year in the US.

    That little yellow book will once again become as important as your passport. Even if it is electronically coded.

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      Sure hope not. I would rather do two weeks quarantine on return. Or, better yet, take and use an antiviral while travelling. Eg, Chloroquine etc, just like Malaria. Why wouldn’t that be good enough?

      Or how about travel to other viral free countries? Why would that need a vacc? If clean countries demand a two week quarantine from travellers from infected zones, then everyone on a plane from a clean country would be clean.

      Vaccines often have a failure rate — eg influenza annual vaccine only offers 40 – 60% protection. (CDC in USA stat)

      Vaccines are not the holy grail in all diseases. Some yes, Eg polio/small pox

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    TdeF

    And I just remembered a trip to Beijing about a decade ago when the avian flu was rampant. No one was tested on the way in. To leave China though you had to go to a station where you temperature was taken and that paper was essential to leave the country. I was really puzzled. Why were they concerned if the virus left China? Usually customs and quarantine is only concerned when you enter.

    I should have twigged, they were trying to do what they should have done, stop their virus from leaving. This last few months, the Corona virus was carried by millions of Chinese to all the corners of the world and as far as I know, no one tried to stop that.

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    WXcycles

    All countries with more than 245 cases and higher than 2.4% deaths:

    % Died | Country | Total Cases
    12.24 … San Marino … 245
    12.07 … Italy … 115,242
    9.50 … Indonesia … 1,790
    9.23 … Spain … 112,065
    9.11 … France … 59,105 (Germany should be about here, but alas, they’ve also been hiding their COVID-19 deaths)
    9.11 … Netherlands … 14,697
    8.72 … Algeria … 986
    8.66 … UK … 33,718
    6.99 … Iraq … 772
    6.71 … Egypt … 865
    6.59 … Belgium … 15,348
    6.26 … Iran … 50,468
    6.21 … Morocco … 708
    5.78 … Albania … 277
    5.56 … Burkina Faso … 288
    5.53 … Sweden … 5,568
    4.35 … Dominican Rep … 1,380
    4.20 … Romania … 2,738
    4.06 … Philippines … 2,633
    4.03 … Brazil … 8,044
    3.89 … Peru … 1,414
    3.79 … Ecuador … 3,163
    3.63 … Denmark … 3,386
    3.59 … Hungary … 585
    3.50 … Andorra … 428
    3.43 … Greece … 1,544
    3.24 … Lebanon … 494
    3.08 … Tunisia … 455
    3.00 … Bosnia and Herz … 533
    2.86 … North Macedonia … 384
    2.85 … Switzerland … 18,827
    2.85 … Argentina … 1,265
    2.83 … India … 2,543
    2.81 … Cyprus … 356
    2.69 … Mexico … 1,378
    2.65 … Serbia … 1,171
    2.55 … Ireland … 3,849
    2.51 … Panama … 1,475
    2.48 … Japan … 2,495
    2.45 … Ukraine … 897
    2.41 … USA … 244,230

    UPDATED: Hot verses Cold countries table: This also indicates that implementing isolation slows daily percentages of New v Active cases (but the numbers have nose dived so quickly I so wonder how real that is).

    https://i.ibb.co/DDZZLQs/Warm-v-Cool-Countries-Percent-Died-Covid-19-29th-March-to-2nd-April.png

    France has finally come clean and admitted they’ve lost the fight. The UK, with 8.66% deaths today has apparently been doing nothing that’s been effective so far. The bamboozling and deflection continues there.

    Germany’s low deaths are flat-out suspicious, just 1.3%, yet they simultaneously completely failed to keep the case numbers low via isolation, as they were very late to impose the isolation and have 84,794 cases, 6,813 new cases, 1,107 dead and176 new deaths, on 2nd of April. The German death numbers make no sense so it’s almost certain Germany is not counting people who died with an active case of COVID-19 and are mostly attributing deaths to co-morbidities. OK, but people in Germany will still be dying at much the same percentages as France or Netherlands, German authorities are just being dishonest about it. They’ve got away with it up to this point, but who do they think they’re kidding? If they have a secret magic snake-oil, they’d better let us all know about it. The truth will find them out.

    Iran’s % died number is also a bad joke and has been all along.

    The total and daily death numbers should be reliable data (and certainly can be), but some countries are apparently determined to falsify and classify away the COVID-19 active case deaths until the deception is exposed.

    The good news is that North Korea has not had a single case of COVID-19.

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    • #
      Chad

      Germany’s low deaths are flat-out suspicious, just 1.3%, yet they simultaneously completely failed to keep the case numbers low via isolation, as they were very late to impose the isolation and have 84,794 cases, 6,813 new cases, 1,107 dead and176 new deaths, on 2nd of April. The German death numbers make no sense so it’s almost certain Germany is not counting people who died with an active case of COVID-19 and are mostly attributing deaths to co-morbidities. OK, but people in Germany will still be dying at much the same percentages as France or Netherlands, German authorities are just being dishonest about it. They’ve got away with it up to this point, but who do they think they’re kidding?

      ..Dishonest ?. That maybe your view, but just maybe they are just being typically Germanicly precise and accurate with their reports….unlike many other countries !
      If someone dies with a bullet in the head, but is known to be Cv19 +ve…..would you attribute CV19 as the cause of death ?……obviously not
      So if someone dies of a heart attack and is CV19 +ve, cause of death ?
      Dito lung cancer ?
      Kidney failure ?
      We know some countries would report all thes as CV19 deaths,..because its easy and they are overrun with work,…. but Germany have said they are trying to be very accurate with their analysis of cause of death.
      On the other habd, we know that Italy, for example, have admitted to being very “generous” with their use of CV19 as the COD ! So who is kidding who ??

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    Doc

    If we all wore balaclavas we wouldn’t need anything else, maybe.
    Hands, always washed of course, could rub the nose and most of the face through the cloth
    without touching skin.. Might not need even economic shutdown. Take your daily Hydrochloroquine
    to knock off any bug penetrating the barrier.

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    • #
      doc

      Hydroxychloroquine. I wonder what’s happening with this virus and islamic women wearing full head cover!
      ICU staff are often seen in full hoods at work these days. A well designed even disposable, paper or cloth covering (balaclava)
      for the head, complete with separate clear glasses if required could fit the bill if this is a hand-mouth-nose-eyes transmission.
      Omit openings for the mouth and nose. It’s more complete than a mask and goggles for protection.

      I notice today that aerosol transmission is also back in vogue. That makes one wonder about people exercising and running to the
      point of heavy breathing with people walking the same track, especially on a still day..

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  • #
    Steve of Cornubia

    Perhaps, sometime in the future, Sweden will be renamed, “Europe’s Covid-19 Culture Dish”.

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    Raving

    when I look at the death rates, infection rates and individual stories of cluster propagation, it seems that COVID19 is an erratic spreader. Strange that there is no geometric growth to high (10+%j virus attack. If there was widespread distribution in the population, it would be revealed by a big die off of elderly people. The age groups that the virus attacks is a hit and miss affair. Hence mortality being all overthr map. Strong isolation contains and perhaps supresses it.

    Intubation seems to be hugely ineffective with this disease. Almost nobody over 70 yrs old seems to recover once intubated. Quality of healthcare doesnt seem a big factor. Not much can be done YET

    This virus doesn’t spread so well. Expect it will die off rather than become seasonal. Too erratic in contageon

    Whatever the caseit will be interisting to see if this virus can attain the 40-60% attack needed for herd immunity. Am amazed at how well it seems to be trapped and shut down. Cannot see it be prevelant and hidden inthe overall population.it is too fatal for the elderly

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    • #
      Raving

      Update: Our government warns that the outlook is grim. Details on predicted deaths to follow tomorrow

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      • #
        Ross

        That outlook will come from models. Probably the out dated ones Jo refers in 3.1.2.1.

        We are getting similar stupid predictions being made in NZ. One Prof reckons NZ could be the only country to eradicate the virus even though our borders are not closed and the PM has ruled out blanket testing of arrivals and no compulsory quarantine. He then goes on to say there could 20 million dying overseas. Absolute madness.

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        • #
          Raving

          Yes, the models dont seem to be a good match to reality in this instance. People and virus are fickle.

          for whatever reason countries seem to be stepping back from the brink. Perhaps its an illusion or wishful thinking

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          • #
            Chad

            for whatever reason countries seem to be stepping back from the brink.

            Or maybe the “brink” was just an illusion, that an over enthusiastic “expert” somewhere predicted from a “model”. Instead of stopping and thinking it out logically..

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    Steve of Cornubia

    At least Covid-19 is serving to flush out the real character of many lefties, as did the fires in Australia.

    In their usual,’Never let a crisis go to waste’ style, the Democrats in America have once again set in motion a kangaroo court which they hope will use this terrible event to tear Trump down and fix the next election.

    After their numerous failed hoaxes including the obscenely-expensive impeachment attempt, they are now instigating yet another massive, taxpayer-funded inquiry designed to discredit the President. This time, they want an investigation into “Trump’s coronavirus response”, with the demented Pelosi saying, ““Where there’s money, there’s also frequently mischief,”

    They have shot themselves in the foot so many times since Trump was elected that they must be taking aim at their knees this time.

    So much for ‘pulling together’. A nasty, obnoxious lot who would happily see the pandemic wipe out half of America’s people if it served to get Trump out of the White House.

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    • #

      They are right to attack the US admin in Feb, but it will bite them and the lefty media. Trump could easily make adverts of the democrats denial, ignorance and media spin.

      Where were they when the US could have prevented this?

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    max

    What does western people believe today?
    Government is a god, and it is going to save us.

    Environmentalism is a religion
    Written by Michael Crichton (September 15, 2003)

    The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. Perceiving the truth has always been a challenge to mankind, but in the information age (or as I think of it, the disinformation age) it takes on a special urgency and importance.
    We must daily decide whether the threats we face are real, whether the solutions we are offered will do any good, whether the problems we’re told exist are in fact real problems, or non-problems.
    Every one of us has a sense of the world, and we all know that this sense is in part given to us by what other people and society tell us; in part generated by our emotional state, which we project outward; and in part by our genuine perceptions of reality. In short, our struggle to determine what is true is the struggle to decide which of our perceptions are genuine, and which are false because they are handed down, or sold to us, or generated by our own hopes and fears.

    What if the ‘sky-is-falling’ coronavirus models are wrong?

    Models based on assumptions in the absence of data can be over-speculative and ‘open to gross over-interpretation’
    the model used assumptions because there was no hard data.
    No one knows what fraction of the public is at risk of serious illness.

    Months ago, before the pandemic sky fell around us, many people rightfully doubted or scoffed at computer models that predicted, say, where a hurricane would make landfall or who was guaranteed to win a presidential election or global warming…

    Today everyone believe in computer models.

    if it is bad how they are telling us, I would expect to see 10 000 – 100 000 dead every day in India, Philippines, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, Brazil

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    • #
      DOC

      Environmentalism is a religion.
      Anthropogenic Global Warming is a religion.
      Human colouring is a religion.
      ‘Acceptable’ speech is a religion.
      Computer modelling is a religion.
      The West is the source of all world illnesses, is a religion.
      Anti science is a religion; it has to be, to underwrite the rest.

      Anyone disagreeing is classed by our loudest ‘leaders’ as deplorables or delcons.
      The problem? The fewest voices are also the loudest. The rest are either censored
      out at the risk of losing everything, including reputations, employment, savings,
      family and life itself (for drawing cartoons). Or cowed to silence, tolerating this
      radicalism rather than standing up and fighting the crap.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Yeah but likely as the squeaky voiced greenists / snowflakes are finding out when they have no practical skills to actually survive a pandemic…that they may not survive a pandemic.

        Theory is theory until it has to be used.

        How many people can distill their own ethanol at home from scratch?

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      Bill In Oz

      Michael Crichton was a Yank.
      I’m an Australian not a ‘westerner’.
      And I expect my government to act in the best interests of Australians.

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    • #

      Environmentalism is a religion.

      But if the sky-is-falling models are wrong we just get back to work next week.

      A few weeks unplanned holiday is not the end of the world. It’s just sensible while we get data.

      But I don’t think the freezer trucks and body bags support the “it’s the flu” models.

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      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Perhaps a branch of science could examine the body bags to determine the exact cause of death, for example:

        Sam Vaknin recently asks, after his own characteristically occasional humour….”Doubts are also rising regarding the cause of death in many cases, especially with the elderly, the immunocompromised, and those with pre-existing conditions: was the virus just present in their bodies – or did it actually cause their demise?

        “And how many of the symptoms are psychogenic somatization (psychosomatic)? Shortness of breath and chest pains are symptoms of both anxiety disorders and respiratory distress in all patients with any of the zoonotic Coronaviruses!

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        • #
          Doc

          It could be argued that the virus, in the case of those with pre existing conditions
          is simply a stress too far for that condition to bear. Placing such a fatality in the bracket
          of ‘death by virus’ is statistically a step too far for accuracy. Perhaps we should look at
          some deaths on the grounds of age plus each precondition, where cardiovascular could be
          one group and immunosuppression etc in other groups. Would be more informative and
          useful.

          Above, I put in computer modelling because while the known base statistical model based on
          rate of infection as used here was useful, the problem with models in general to a layperson
          like myself is that they are like economics ie better as explanations of history than they are
          at forecasting the future. In the extreme cases, as in AGW, they seem to reflect the ideology
          behind the theory, never get a forecast right and actually manipulate the data to give a result
          that even then is never correct. Then, we lay people are expected to believe these people and their models , that Armageddon is coming in 70 years. Worse however is the fact that the power of
          our parliaments supports such nonsensical predictions that can’t get any prediction right for the next year. The abuse of process, dependent on the output of such models , and it’s effect on our
          way of life in all areas, should be cause for social unrest. But nothing happens. I object to being treated like a fool when the fools in fact we actually elect to govern us.
          Amen for a therapeutic rant.

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  • #
    WXcycles

    All high growth countries with more than 250 cases and over 12.5% growth each day:

    % New v Active | Country | Total Cases
    57.1 … Belarus … 304
    28.7 … Bahrain … 643
    25.3 … Cameroon … 306
    23.9 … India … 2,543
    23.5 … Russia … 3,548
    22.8 … UAE … 1,024
    17.2 … Moldova … 505
    17.0 … Canada … 11,283
    16.6 … Algeria … 986
    15.3 … Brazil … 8,044
    14.9 … Bosnia and Herzegovina … 533
    14.8 … Armenia … 663
    14.2 … Egypt … 865
    14.1 … Turkey … 18,135
    14.0 … Afghanistan … 273
    13.8 … UK … 33,718
    13.8 … Poland … 2,946
    13.6 … Ecuador … 3,163
    13.6 … Kazakhstan … 435
    13.6 … Argentina … 1,265
    13.4 … Pakistan … 2,421
    13.0 … Qatar … 949
    13.0 … Philippines … 2,633
    12.8 … Denmark … 3,386
    12.8 … USA … 244,230
    12.6 … New Zealand … 797
    12.5 … Mexico … 1,378

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    • #

      Canada still growing so fast! Hope that slowdown comes in two days.

      10

      • #
        WXcycles

        Yes, Canada was below or else level-pegging with us for weeks, then they raced ahead during the past week. Living next door to the world’s biggest infection site. Speaking of neighbors New Zealand is 12.6%. A lowish total, but they better get properly isolated.

        PNG and Timor are still on 1 case each (lowest of all the countries listed).

        10

    • #
      Chad

      …..and do you have the correstponding daily testing numbers to CORRECTLY estimate those rates of increase ??

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  • #
    max

    cases not death

    13

  • #
    WXcycles

    Number of deaths each 24 hours.

    Date | Deaths Each Day
    19-Mar-20 … 1,079
    20-Mar-20 … 1,356
    21-Mar-20 … 1,625
    22-Mar-20 … 1,629
    23-Mar-20 … 1,873
    24-Mar-20 … 2,381
    25-Mar-20 … 2,388
    26-Mar-20 … 2,791
    27-Mar-20 … 3,270
    28-Mar-20 … 3,518
    29-Mar-20 … 3,204
    30-Mar-20 … 3,709
    31-Mar-20 … 4,535
    01-Apr-20 … 4,889
    02-Apr-20 … 5,968

    Tomorrow will be ~7,250

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    max

    World Population Clock: 7.8 Billion

    TB is the leading infectious cause of death in the world, killing 1.5 million each year.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Do you ever plan to realize the ONLY reason why numbers are posted is to make sure people are made AWARE and will change their behaviors in time to make absolutely sure that COVID-19 never can become a mass death disease?

      You seem to think it’s something else.

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      Kalm Keith

      Every “migrant” entering Europe was tested for TB and those with it sent home.

      Just ask Angela.

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    max

    It’s estimated that pneumonia kills approximately two million children each year, with 40 percent of these deaths in Africa.

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  • #
    Alessandro

    Of course a lockdown is going to work, it can only work BUT what is the outcome weeks or months later. Forget about statistics based on flawed data. The only true measure of effectiveness is deaths due to CV not deaths with CV, quite a difference. Many men die with prostate cancer but don’t die from it. Until the data is clean “tell them they’re dreaming”.

    What is the end goal of isolation? A disease free health environment? How do we know when we get there, if ever as we know older strains of flu still exist? Wait for a vaccine to arrive? What was it that Donald Rumsfeld said “there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know and finally there are unknown unknowns, things we don’t know we don’t know.” Seems like a Rumsfeld kind of world at present.

    So to the commentators herein tell me what you think should be used as the yardstick to decide when we return to an open society free of CV governmental control?

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    Reed Coray

    It does look like the actions being taken by many governments have in fact reduced the number of COVID-19 cases; and that is good. If this “good” came at no cost, then it’s hard to criticize those actions. However, this “good” doesn’t come free. For example, the world’s economies seem to have taken a pretty good hit. Similar to your graphs, I would like to see graphs that represent various aspects of the economic costs. One such graph might be the number of unemployed over the same time interval. I’m not saying what has been done is bad; but I am saying congratulations on a job well done are premature. Because (a) all such comparisons will involve “apples” and “oranges,” and (b) over the short time interval the people who critique what we have done will be the same people who made the decisions, it may be several decades before an objective measure of our actions can be rendered. I really do hope that what we have done and are doing are for the best, and that very well may be the case. At this time, however, I am not convinced.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The alternative is do nothing & pay the enormous price of that ‘do nothing policy’.

      No thanks !

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    • #
      WXcycles

      However, during early February when China shutdown its economy and internal travel (without their wanting to close international borders for some fishy reason), people in markets all over the world said this was baking in a deep global Recession that may trigger global financial crisis and Depression etc., and these are now built in features of the 2020 landscape, and for years beyond.

      And all that occurred well before the incremental (managed) post 1st March western restriction, isolation and lock-down processes.

      So I would say the choices for a financial crisis and economic die-back were not of our making, but our actions since to cope with it and the disease do have the repercussions you highlight. Blaming our own decision makers in all respects is not correct though, as it was not our decision which bought this about. We have been coping with something that was imposed, and could have been (theoretically) quashed very fast.

      But politics did not allow that, and probably never will. The scientist would do the right (unacceptable) thing, and quash it instantly. The politician would never do that until they sniff the electoral breeze, and the economists and financiers would rather millions die, after all they’re just old people. The Law of the Jungle, and all that (i.e. a jaundiced natural-world sciencey-ness evolutionary excuse which justifies acting like greedy barbarians).

      Maybe it’s a net good thing the PM is a nominal Christian believer here.

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      • #

        WX, actually, one thing that will come of this for the next 30 years is that at the first sign of any major pandemic governments will shut the doors fast, and ask questions later.

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        • #
          george1st:)

          Sorry Jo
          but that aint gonna happen
          Pres.Trump yes , but other govts just follow the leaders .
          They would not impose anything that might lose them votes .
          They would have to be sure its ‘really’ serious and the media are supporting it first.

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          • #

            Votes? Why not ask the voters what they want. All the surveys I’ve seen show people wanted the borders shut before they were.

            Keeping the borders open was never about the voters — it was about big vested interests and party donors. It was fear of academic bullies, who are favourites of the media but hocked to their necks and uninsured over lost Chinese students.

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        • #
          Damon

          Only partly true. Viruses may come and go, but the laws and regulations will stay, and be invoked every time the government thinks it can get away with declaring an ‘emergency’.

          Given the severity of the restrictions, the result for Australia does not look particularly impressive. The epidemic will almost certainly wane naturally, with little help from the government.

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        • #
          Damon

          Only partly true. Viruses may come and go, but the laws and regulations will stay, and be invoked every time the government thinks it can get away with declaring an ‘emergency’.

          Given the severity of the restrictions, the result for Australia does not look particularly impressive. The epidemic will almost certainly wane naturally, with little help from the government.

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  • #
    H.B. Schmidt

    If you believe China’s numbers, you need your head examined.
    If you think a flattening curve tells you the whole story about transmissivity, virulence, and potential risk, you need your head examined.

    COVID-19 is, and has been, primarily a disease that affects the OLD and CHRONICALLY PREDISPOSED. Are the deaths worth the trillions of dollars it’s cost us panicking about an inevitability? I don’t think so, not by a million miles.

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      Raving

      Have news for you. Currently the countries that saturate available beds give up on the old people. Intubation has a poor chance of success for those over 60. regardless

      For those places the ICU beds are filled with those BELOW the age of 60.

      Good luck. Whatever your age, if you end up in a hospital, you will need it. You life will cost a lot to save if even there is a chance of doing so

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      • #
        Raving

        P.S. by the time medical science gets around to helping you, there will probably be a global shortage of basic drugs to ease pain, paralyze and fight complications. They aren’t just running out of antimalarials. All drugs risk supply shortage now

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      RickWill

      Unlike you I have faith in the official numbers from China. Those numbers reflect the number of people that were treated in hospitals. The evidence suggests many did no make it to hospital so they do not figure in the official count as cause of death is uncertain. That is happening in all countries now where health care systems are overwhelmed. Morgues, crematoriums and cemeteries are overwhelmed as well.

      Then you go on to shout OLD and CHRONICALLY PREDISPOSED are primarily affected. This is skewed due to triage decisions in socialised hospital systems where older and chronically predisposed patients are moved from ICUs to death door to make way for younger and healthier individuals.

      The fatality figures will be different in the USA because money buys heath care there.

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  • #
    JanEarth

    Hi

    Brief bio…63 trips around the Sun, Long time lurker , first time poster. Retired nurse.

    Now to the nitty gritty…I had to have a conversation with my wife about my advance directives. Why ? …simply because I have no intention of being tortured to death on a Ventilator when my chances of surviving are close to zero. I do have co-morbidities in that I have Hypertension and an autoimmune disease namely RA. I looked into this and my chances without a co-morbidity at my age are miniscule. For me to use up a ventilator thereby denying this for a younger person who does actually have a chance of surviving this ordeal to me is unconscionable. I am fine with Death I have lived a charmed and fantastic life and have nothing to fear. I do want to continue living as long as possible but not at the expense of the quality of my life and certainly not in the vain attempt to keep me alive against all odds. I am a Cancer survivor of 12 years ( DLBCL stage 2B) so when I do have a good chance of survival with a reasonable expectation of maintaining a good quality of life I will take it. Me being on a ventilator at my age with CCP virus is not such a case.

    I am not advocating anything here other than to get you all to think about this. Advance directive forms can be downloaded from your states health service web page. You can even write your wishes onto paper and sign and date it but best to get someone close to you to co-sign.

    here is a link to a video that I found to be the best I have seen on this issue…please take a few minutes to watch it.

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    • #
      Richard B

      Hi Jan,
      For what it’s worth, some patients could be better off without ventilation. I was talking to a friend whose wife is an anaesthetist so it’s a second hand source. However, her view is that we are overusing ventilators and in many cases it’s not at all clear that ventilator use provides a better outcome. There was mention of some early research data on this.
      Of general interest, she is working with covid 19 sufferers and they are using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and a drug that was developed for West Nile encephalitis.

      10

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Time for some laying on of hands and a communion crust and wine. Don’t mention South Korea.

      00

  • #
    Jeffrey Dun

    In my view Jo’s focus on the spread of the virus and the effect of lockdowns on its spread is beside the point. The most important issue is not its spread but the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid19.

    Given the quality of the data we can’t be sure of the IFR, but The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) in Oxford estimates that the IFR is in the range of 0.1% – 0.26%. Their estimate is similar to Professor John Ionannidis’ estimate of 0.125%. If these estimates of IFR are correct then covid 19 is comparable to the seasonal flu.

    These estimates are supported by research that Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi referenced in his open letter to the German Chancellor in which he said “The internationally recognized International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents will soon publish a paper that addresses exactly this question (ie the question of lethality). Preliminary results of the study can already be seen today and lead to the conclusion that the new virus is NOT different from traditional corona viruses in terms of dangerousness.” (Roussel et al. SARS-CoV-2: Fear Versus Data. Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents 2020, 105947).

    I believe that Jo does not support her cause by her use of alarmist language. For example:
    “but this horrible virus hits the young, the fit, and even kills children. “

    The seasonal flu also hits the young, the fit and kills many many more children than covid19. Quoting again from the Oxford CEBM: “Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which is also reassuring and will act to drive down the IFR significantly.”

    Another linguistic flourish of Jo’s which is misleading:
    “It (covid19) swallows whole hospitals.” The reality is that a bad flu season pushes hospitals to their limits. For example:

    In 2018 hospitals across the USA were full with flu patients. Alabama declared a state of emergency. Elective surgeries were cancelled, patients were turned away. California hospitals were “war zones” where people were treated in hastily erected tents.

    In England last November experts were publishing reports warning that the NHS was under too much pressure to deal with the seasonal flu. In December the NHS had to implement “emergency temporary beds” in 52% of its hospitals to account for their regular “winter crisis”.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/02/coronavirus-fact-check-1-flu-doesnt-overwhelm-our-hospitals/

    I think it would be more informative if Jo dialled back the alarmist rhetoric and focused on the most vital issue of all – the IFR of covid19.

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    Doc

    Speaking in generalities, a dispute exists as to whether this epidemic is less of a problem than
    recurrent, annual influenza where there is a high hidden toll of death which is passed as
    unremarkable and unremarked. The world economy isn’t halted over it. The flu has a vaccine
    that limits its spread effectively, and its accepted that its toll occurs when society has expended its
    only preventative therapy which people can choose to use or refuse.

    It doesn’t require a blog to stress people over this disease, and the other crossed species diseases
    didn’t really cause a great distress here. Indeed, most problems currently are from groups told
    they are bulletproof to COVID-19 and therefore ignore the rules. We appear to be getting some
    deaths now from that < 70yo now, to the extent the clinicians are questioning whether or not
    they are missing something in why this virus is hitting many younger people hard while leaving most
    unscathed, although that depends on how many have permanent lung problems.

    It is apparent the government epidemiologists have become much more concerned about the disease
    after first taking the ‘flu idea and being slow off the mark. There is no curative therapy yet for this
    disease, no comfort from having a vaccine nor a drug therapy despite great promises for drugs.
    The ancient method of isolation may drop the rates of infection, but doesn’t give an indication of
    when the disease will end nor when the economy will resume to function. The public knows this, and
    the consequences of that are more frightening than the disease per se.

    The big matter of concern, to me, is: What do the Chinese know? They have been through all the
    recent scares of human infectious viruses crossing species. This one however has frightened
    the pants off them, to the extent they very early on plundered nations throughout the world for
    every scrap of PPE gear, masks, gloves and ventilators. THAT was queer! Did they expect a
    much greater problem than they actually got such that very early on they were scrambling for
    all that gear? Forcing families into isolation behind welded doors seems a bit extreme, even for
    Xi who has spent years building up a facade of being a benign dictator.

    It seems a bit odd to call out this blog as being over-the -top scaring people when the facts are
    such that the basic epidemiological graphs which were presented would have been widely known
    and the suggested treatment was inline with traditional treatment according to the data. The
    proof of that lies in the fact that most countries have been forced onto the same track. Can’t
    recall if Jo started with the Japan etc methodology, but in retrospect, if the Western governments
    had Dept.s of Health that were on the ball, not only would they have been up to scratch with their
    PPE etc, they would also have had an epidemic response plan that closely reflected the
    policies of those Asian States that have seen all this before. .

    Already, currently, we have commentators appalled by the damage to the economy and unhelpfully
    calling to get people back to work, as though everyone else aren’t bright enough to think of it.
    The problem is, like everyone else, nobody has any idea how to do it without setting the virus free
    again and having to shut it all down again (like my IPad). The government appears to be convinced
    that’ll be late in the year. Most are hoping just a month or so, everything crossed. We all worry, with
    very good reason. FAUCI Wants stay-at-home orders.

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    • #
      Damon

      Once the pattern of mortality became clear, the most effective, and least economically destructive response, would have been to triage the population. The young don’t die. So let them get sick to build up herd immunity. Put most effort into protecting the susceptible elderly. Attempts to protect everybody have clearly failed, and stubborn adherence to such ideas will further damage society.

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  • #
    Bruce Parr

    Strangely; In Sweden, the all cause mortality has been below baseline throughout this pandemic. https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

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