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Stop with the fatalism: Don’t flatten it, Crush The Curve on Coronavirus

There is a third way — Why are we so fatalistic?

It’s not a choice between Let It Rip and the slow bleed of “Flatten the Curve”. It’s not a choice of health versus money. The third option no one is mentioning is to Crush The Curve: we go hard, fast, and do a major short sharp quarantine. It’s not radical, it’s just textbook epidemiology, it saves more lives and it saves the economy too.

SlowMo, Boris and Trump are still two weeks behind the virus. It’s time to get the Third Option on the table.

Flattening the Curve is a fatalistic slow bleed that must last months. It rescues us from the demolition derby that the Let It Rip disaster is cursing on Italian hospitals, but it’s deadly for the economy. All leaders who are keeping schools open while turning student dorms into triage units are locked into this limited thinking. It’s the Influenza-plan rejigged.

There is another way  — (as I’ve been saying) — we stop dithering and acting two-weeks-late, and jump ahead of this inanimate code. We aim for extinction — hunt every infection down, keep most people at home, reduce the spread, then finish by following every contact, track and trace. It’s not that big a deal. When we said “close the borders” people said it was unthinkable, but they’re closed now. Somehow life goes on without the trip to Bali, and the dinner at the Hyatt. The slow-bleed keeps people going to work and dinner parties, and keeps the kids in school, but we walk the tightrope of Hospital Doom with an exponential foe — people dying drip, drip, drop all the way.

Crush the Curve instead, enough with the fatalism, Graph. Flatten the Curve.

Crush the Curve instead, enough with the fatalism

We’ve already given up sport, holidays and big parties — it’s not the end of the world to just call a halt to work and school and stay home for a few weeks. I predict we’ll end up there anyway, so the sooner the better. As long as people have food, it’s not exactly “survival camp” struggle to stay home  for a few weeks. Regions can still trade with care. We drop the containers at the border, swap cabs and use local drivers. Planes with cargo can be quarantined or cleaned. We do food deliveries, so no one goes hungry. We test those delivery guys, and the packer girls. We guard the supply chain people — the farmers, health workers, and all essential services.

We live without lawyers and accountants for a few weeks, and look after the supply chain people. We expect the delivery team to be as isolated as possible (apart from the delivery rounds), and tested often, so we pay them more temporarily. The last thing we want are deliveries of coronavirus. (Like in Italy).

In this future we build holiday homes, not hospitals.

The secret is strict walls. We stop feeding the virus fresh bodies and simply outwait the code. Its big weakness is that it can’t repair from daily wear and tear. Heat will break the bonds. So will UV. Sooner or later (nine days?) we don’t have to do anything and the code disintegrates. One snip and it’s powerless.

The great thing about this is certainty and speed

Do it once and do it well, then maintain the barrier around the Virus Zone as it shrinks bit by bit.

Imagine nations split into mosaics of small regions and we clean one at a time and build from there. As each small region is cleared of the virus it can be opened to other clean regions, then clean states join clean states, and finally clean nations connect. This quarantine is only as good as its walls, but it can be done. And it can be maintained and it will keep airlines, events and restaurants alive. Footy games too.

Schools have to go skeleton minimalist (briefly) — all kids who can stay home should stay home. South Korea had emergency classes for children of essential workers and kept class sizes to 10. After the state is clean, schools can run normally again. In the six month Slow-Bleed-Plan schools will have no certainty that they won’t be shut down due to infection any day. Flights can’t be restored quickly, and businesses go bust.

How realistic is it to aim for extinction?

This is not 1918. We don’t have to give up before we even start.

Thousands of medical researchers are working on this from scores of different angles. There are plenty of interventions in the pipeline to improve the odds.

It will take a special kind of determination. It will take thousands of tests and discipline, but we won’t have to keep it up for six months. Keeping the virus out would have been a snap a few weeks ago, but now we need to over reach to aim for zero. Instead of slowly sliding belatedly into greater and greater restrictions, just do them all now temporarily. Make it top priority to get the Ro under 1 and keep it there. Declare a war on this virus.

As a side benefit, even if we don’t achieve extinction we stop more countries losing control. And we discover what makes this virus tick and which restrictions matter the most. Crushing it now buys us time to find ways to improve the odds. Being defeatist now just makes it harder to use the new tools when they come. And they will come, we know the code.

Any antivirals  (chloroquine, anti-HIV drugs) can be used as preventatives on the contacts to ring-fence the virus.  New biotech solutions with potential to make this easier include mass production of monoclonal antibodies, or small copies of the infectious spike protein or stem cell treatments and RNAi. We declare war on this virus. We study it to the nth, do gene assays, figure out which people are most at risk of infection or at risk of being carriers or at risk of getting the severe disease.

But we don’t need hi-tech, we need a clear mission, and some time…

States with the fewest infections have the best chance to lead the way — New Zealand, Tasmania, Hong Kong. West Australia. Russia, Macao, Taiwan. India?

After the curve is crushed, freedom is mostly fixed fast

Inside the No-corona-state everyone has all the freedom that they usually have, they just can’t leave and come straight back without a two week quarantine. But restaurants, schools, clubs and pubs are all back on again.

The proviso is that that walls must stay strong. A No-corona state can only afford open travel with other proven No-corona nations. All arrivals from the virus zone will have to be quarantined and not with polite requests but mandatory checks and carefully enforced. But every nation will want to be on the clean list — there is a big incentive to get there and maintain it, and to be honest. Countries caught hiding infections will be dropped like hot potatoes, and lose the right to get back on the list quickly. Poor nations will need help but big clean nations will have healthy economies, and they can assist.

There is better future

Until there is a vaccine or a serious treatment we live with constant vigilance looking for an outbreak. But when it happens, we know what to do. Short, sharp and fast. Obviously we test, test, test, and then test again.

 

______________________________________________

Coronavirus Background: ☀ The Demographics: the young are spared, but the severity increases with age, and slightly more for men than women. ☀ The Ro is 2 – 3 and exponential curves are steep. How Coronavirus kills: why the number of ICU units matters so much. ☀ Illness progression: Dry coughs and Fevers, Aches. In 15% of people, by day 5 breathing trouble starts. In 3% (?) by day 8 they may need an ICU (intensive care unit). ☀ The good case of Singapore but the ominous calculations of how fast the ICU beds may run out. ☀ The story of how American Samoa avoided Flu Deaths with quarantine in 1918. ☀

Economics: ☀ The huge impact on the Chinese economy, the awful case of Iran.☀

Beware UN advice:Ethiopian WHO chief was part of China’s debt trap diplomacy ☀

Stats and Data: John Hopkins Live Map Worldometer

 

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Rating: 9.1/10 (70 votes cast)
Stop with the fatalism: Don't flatten it, Crush The Curve on Coronavirus, 9.1 out of 10 based on 70 ratings

306 comments to Stop with the fatalism: Don’t flatten it, Crush The Curve on Coronavirus

  • #
    ralf ellis

    .
    Agreed. The first people who need to stop all work, are the bakers, grocers, sewage and water-plant workers, truckers, and power-station workers. Especially those truckers, who spread disease all over the country – all deliveries should be stopped NOW, especially to supermarkets (big grocers are havens of disease). Only then will we be safe.

    Do I need a /sarc….?

    R

    2610

    • #
      el gordo

      Isolate people in cities too, dens of inequity and disease.

      64

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Bring out your dead (Monty Python)
        389,667 views
        •Feb 19, 2014
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg

        104

        • #
          Broadie

          ABC version of ‘Bring out your dead’ forecast for 2020.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCxPOqwCr1I

          Nice to stick to a plot?

          Asked the question of an Anaesthetist who works in intensive care .
          Seen any Wuhan Virus impacts? “No, but it is coming. Look at Italy.”
          What were people dying of before, what were the bugs?
          “No one knows and the nasal swabs seem to be hit an miss anyway.”

          Love precision! So we have an increasing occurrence of something we weren’t measuring, and this is a reason to administer the Coup de grace to what remains of our small business sector.

          Asked a paramedic, “Seen any increased admissions with viral illness?” Nope! But the hospitals and Ambulances are less overworked as they have rid themselves of the people who inhabit the free hospital system for food and lodging and use the Ambulances as Taxis.

          They tried to destroy our free secular democracy by disrupting our communication and power networks with the Climate Change scare and can now sit back and watch what is left commit ‘hara kiri’ over fear of a common cold.

          Wrap yourself in alfoil and pack a Mars bar.
          This is nuts!

          266

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            That video was nuts!!
            Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only my very own attitude and personal opinion that is still in alpha testing phase. Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP :)

            This disclaimer may contain traces of nuts :)

            102

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Yep…its way disproportibate.

            Its an economic hit job amongst other things

            01

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            …and I predicted as the climate nonsense started to come apart at the seams, the Elite would do something drastic to regain control

            So here we are effectively under quasi martial law….

            33

          • #
            Andrew McRae

            Trade is a social interaction and many of them have to be done in-person. The choice was between cutting down trade for several weeks versus allowing around 5% of the country to die prematurely. Mostly elderly but still 1 in 20 people. That’s a ballpark figure but is hardly an exaggeration when you multiply the numbers. That’s 10% of people with severe but not critical disease (15%) and 90% of people with critical disease (5%), all due to sheer overwhelming numbers of an infection left to spread rapidly and unchecked through 80% of the population.

            Asked the question of an Anaesthetist who works in intensive care .
            Seen any Wuhan Virus impacts? “No, but it is coming. Look at Italy.”

            The meaning of their answer depends on where they work and when that statement was made. The only link I know of between an anaesthetist and treatment of pneumonia is the use of anaesthetics during intubation and mechanical ventilation in a critical case, which is only 5% of confirmed COVID19 cases. If their particular hospital has had less than 25 cases assigned to it then its possible they have not had their first acute case yet. But 5% of an exponentially increasing quantity is still an exponentially increasing quantity.

            Mathematics aside, here are some photos and video taken during the last 3 days in northern Italy. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-italy-army-transport-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3
            When was the last time you heard of this happening anywhere in Europe from what you call “a common cold”? It doesn’t normally happen.
            So this is not a computer prediction, it’s photos of real events, but still a glimpse of our possible future because Italy is similar and merely ahead of us on the spread of the virus. Note those are the consequences in a developed country with an advanced healthcare system that has done more to stop the spread of the virus than Australia has to date.

            40

            • #
              yarpos

              In the heat wave of 2003 in Paris they commandered cool market spaces as the morgues filled up and it was a great disaster. Now doesnt even register as an unusual year in regard to overall mortality.

              00

    • #
      Geoff Croker

      Crushing the curve will not get rid of it, just give us longer to find treatments and a vaccine.

      https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus

      Any treatment must be simple enough to treat tens of millions.

      30

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        It seems they already have it…no vaccine required…antivirals and quinine….

        All good.

        11

  • #
    Doc

    Couldn’t agree more. Currently it’s death by a thousand cuts.
    I’m an oldie retiree and apart from the second major hit
    on super, I’m not qualified to talk for families. However,
    being simplistic, there appears to me to be a better
    chance of returning to normal by taking the big hit,
    short duration cure than our current slow bleed to
    economic depression as the world seems to doing.
    All those job losses…….

    If even a month closure of most things except essential services
    and food could do the job, there is only presently the
    chance of doing it and have most businesses and jobs
    reopening. Leave it much longer and we are economically
    and socially dead. Too many businesses forced to
    permanently close. Permanent job losses. Failed
    mortgages. Bank disasters?

    It staggers one that the decision makers have all the
    information and more than on this blog but it seems
    courage fails them at the last minute. Tasmania
    isolates whenWA made the idea and immediately
    rolled over. Even if a Court challenge was made against
    It, the interim to getting to Court and a decision
    would have been all the time necessary for the
    closure. Sums up the weakness of our politicians
    and our advisory panels. Weakness in this
    case is unforgivable. It’s death for some and we hope
    not the many.

    162

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      There are a lot of loans out there, corporate, government loans, and domestic loans for example…. and the question arises, what will be the result of all the debtor collateral on bank balance sheets when debtors are not able to make debt repayments during a corona virus?

      70

  • #
    Doc

    [Duplicate, but a good-ee. Ta. - Jo]

    00

  • #
    el gordo

    Indonesia plays catch up.

    ‘Number of people who have died has jumped from five to 25 people in the last two days. The death toll in Indonesia is now the largest in south-east Asia, less than three weeks after the country belatedly recorded its first infection.’ SMH

    40

    • #
      Rolf

      The CFR in Indonesia is the same as in Italy already.

      41

    • #
      mareeS

      Answer me this: Why are 300,000 Hubei and Wuhan Chinese working in the northern Italy fashion and textiles centres over these recent years on the “Silk Road Project”, and nearly as many in Iran in engineering?

      Direct flights Italy/Wuhan have been frequent daily until recently. Same with Teheran/Wuhan.

      MSM will not discuss this.

      40

      • #
        el gordo

        They didn’t see it coming.

        Reminds me of the Spanish flu epidemic, 130,000 coolies were brought into France and England to free up more soldiers for the front line. The flu came from China and killed 50 million people worldwide.

        20

  • #
    TdeF

    Even if Australia has eliminated Coronoa Virus and free of all the other imported diseases, like killer flus, we need some sort of controls on travel.

    The figure is that 1 Million Australians leave the country every month. Apart from business people on regular flights and without repeat tourists this is a staggering 12 million people a year. Half the population. No wonder we have a problem!

    I think an awareness of this might change habits. I had so many years suffering from flus brought home by children, friends at schools. The business of recognition, cleaning, isolation must not be forgotten. One bad flu was from a taxi driver in Essen, Germany. He had a hospital level cold and the bridge was out, so I had an hour an a half with someone who should have been isolated. It wrecked a trip and a holiday. Similarly in Australia with ‘slightly’ sick people going to work. And thousands dying from flu.

    As for a country which is so boring half the people have to leave every year, it must be a world first. Not only are they spending more money on jet fuel than electricity, it is insane to have the frequent flying Greens lecturing us on minimizing carbon output. COP22 was a virus fest involving 30,000 people flying into one town for talks about not flying.
    This prolific waste is typical of the hectoring Greens, do what I say not what I do.

    And the former head of the IPCC, Pachauri flew 360,000km a year, notably 1,000km a day, every day to lecture us on our habits. Hypocrites all.

    As an island nation below the Tropic of Capricorn, a latitude where a tiny 2% of the world’s population live, we should be a safe place from many of the world’s problems. Why are we bringing them home?

    At least people now see uncontrolled economic migration as a risk. As it has always been. I see half of the population going overseas every year as inexplicable, almost insane.

    230

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      We are not unusual in our desire to “cross borders”.

      Our problem is that bloody ocean that surrounds us and so we have to fly.

      All considered we aren’t doing too bad.

      :-) KK

      92

      • #
        TdeF

        Sure, but half the population leaving the country once a year is not a trip. It is an exodus. I confess to being one of those and only saw NZ last year for the first time but really, in the 1970s it was hard to find someone who had even been overseas. Now you cannot find many who have not. That raises a lot of questions in terms of the spread of viruses and this is only the latest and trickiest. We dodged SARS1, Birdflu/Avianflu, Ebola, MERS,… but it will happen. And how many countries can even afford to send half their entire population (men, women, children, old and young, sick and babies) overseas once a year?

        150

        • #
          TdeF

          That wasn’t my red thumb. Why anyone would red thumb a reasonable comment is beyond me.

          72

        • #
          tonyb

          tdef

          Have a read of this

          “The first sign of serious trouble emerged on March 1, when officials in Iceland discovered that 15 passengers on an Icelandair flight arriving the day before from Munich had tested positive for coronavirus. Fourteen of the infected had been in Ischgl (a ski village in Austria) .

          Iceland warned officials in Austria, but health authorities there dismissed the concerns out of Reykjavik.”

          AS far as too much overseas travel is concerned and too many people wanting to come into your own country as tourists or migrants, there is likely to be a reaction.

          Australia doesn’t have a dozen countries that can access it via an hours plane journey like Austria does, so you should be in a better position than many others to keep out the people or the diseases that might cause concerns.

          Mind you in Australia I think you have so severely run down industries -or let China dominate them- that international trade-if not of people-can’t be avoided.

          140

      • #
        Rolf

        That bloody oceans may be a blessing !

        40

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      And the former head of the IPCC, Pachauri flew 360,000km a year,

      The late Rajendra K. Pachauri.

      RIP.

      46

    • #
      truth

      We’re bringing them in from the ravages and chaos of Italy as late as today according to SKY tonight…in they come …no checks and off interstate on their own frolics unhindered even by temperature checks…certainly nothing to ensure they’re quarantined for two weeks.

      A comparison between the experience of an Australian girl arriving from the UK …making her own sensible decision to self-isolate when derelict authorities apparently didn’t give a damn …and her friend’s experience of returning to her home in Hong Kong where the authorities were actually diligently doing their jobs…. was devastating at this point …giving the lie to all the assurances we’re treated to….and making a sick joke of the government’s daily admonitions….just criminal negligence if the story is true.

      110

    • #
      yarpos

      “As for a country which is so boring half the people have to leave every year, it must be a world first” Its 2020, we are not constrained to walking distance or a horse ride from our village anymore. Enquiring minds and all that. Many value what they have when they get back and see what others tolerate.

      00

  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    2 week national holiday, now!

    14

    • #
      tonyb

      Yes, declare a 2 week national holiday now and get everyone out spending at the beach, leisure parks, shopping malls and restaurants…Oh, wait!

      tonyb

      63

      • #
        Mark D.

        No No TonyB how about spend time with the family (less than ten at a time)? Clean your room, house ,or property?

        But if it is going to be a holiday then shut off all technology contact with the rest of the world. No radio (ha) not TV, not smart anything. It is actually fun to drive down the main street with almost no other vehicles. I think there are positives to be considered

        30

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      But no unnecessary travel into, or out of, the cities please.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      40

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      It doesn’t need to end there, Lord Kek.
      Afterwards there can be a Convoy of No Coronavirus!

      31

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Thanks Jo for your clarity and your determination to show this government how to kill this bloody virus !
    Wa now has 40 odd infected people & SA 35 infected cases. So the opportunity to shut down & exclude is probably slipping away.

    113

  • #
    george1st:)

    This is a World problem , not just Aussie.
    Cutting us off and fixing it here will never stop the effects from overseas to our well being .

    61

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      We need test kits.

      A test kit literally is freedom.

      The nihilistic ‘lock down’ and “bring out the dead” anyway scenario similar in intensity to the bubonic plague could be avoided with a simple test kit.

      Preferably DIY with a lab certification and gaurantee or your money back :)

      72

      • #
        tonyb

        Test kits need to go first to health professionals and other essential services employees, else they are being asked to self isolate and therefor take themselves off front line duties for 14 days when they might not even have covid 19

        100

      • #
        truth

        What we really need to keep the vulnerable Australians alive if they actually do contract the virus …and they’re not all old …many of them are young…is ventilators…the items that must not be mentioned apparently.

        The official ..’NSW Health declined to say how many ventilators the State was buying’…probably means none as they spend billions setting up RE zones for their transition of Australia to 3rd world poverty….so Matt Kean can impress the poobahs of EU and UNIPCC…and Photios comrades Naomi Klein and Al Gore.

        They will never be forgiven.

        160

      • #
        PeterS

        Yes test kits are essential. Billions if necessary must be spent on acquiring and/or making them then distributing to everyone for free as often as necessary. It’s very hard to win a war when you can’t see the enemy.

        50

    • #
      Doc

      Apart from changing the fight from stopping the health
      damage and deaths, the fight becomes one of putting out
      small brush fires ie chasing down and isolating those in
      Outbreaks and known contacts. There is an internal and
      an external economy. Our internal one which employs many
      In service jobs could flow freely and our export markets
      could run on demand, especially mining where Australians
      would be induced to go to those places currently using
      FIFO, and agriculture . Overseas virus problems would
      grow internal tourism and its service industries.
      Not perfect, but as adequate as could expect until the
      world beats the bug.

      40

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      ‘The cat has already gotten out of the bag’. This ‘cat/bag’ precept is not a form of

      fatalism

      . The cat and the bag analogy is trying to convey realism i suppose, and realism usually is hopeful and objective/impartial in nature, and does not seek insult..It is not unpleasant. The corona is not like the great plague, and after some unenlightened times here and there, we now have sanitation. The lock-down reactions in various countries is over the top in my view.

      The cat is out of the bag. Simple logic. Lock-downs are extremely costly and do more harm than good it is clear abundantly already. “Do no harm” medical precept. Cure the patient without harming the patient is the way i interpret that medical precept. Plenty of evidence that the alleged cure is more diabolically destructive than the disease IMO (in my opinion).

      Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only the attitude and personal opinion i currently am testing and verifying….Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP:)

      Notes: From Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primum_non_nocere
      Primum non nocere (Classical Latin: [ˈpriːmũː noːn nɔˈkeːrɛ]) is a Latin phrase that means “first, do no harm.” The phrase is sometimes recorded as primum nil nocere.[1]

      Non-maleficence, which is derived from the maxim, is one of the principal precepts of bioethics that all medical students are taught in school and is a fundamental principle throughout the world. Another way to state it is that, “given an existing problem, it may be better not to do something, or even to do nothing, than to risk causing more harm than good.” It reminds physicians to consider the possible harm that any intervention might do. It is invoked when debating the use of an intervention that carries an obvious risk of harm but a less certain chance of benefit.[citation needed]

      46

      • #

        How are you judging “more harm” than good?

        Just curious…

        61

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Firstly, name calling the prime minister “slomo” is not a very productive pastime and is an example of doing more harm than good. Using insult always does more harm than good. .

          Look at my disclaimer.

          “Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only the attitude and personal opinion i currently am testing and verifying….Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP :)

          13

          • #
            Peter C

            Firstly, name calling the prime minister “slomo” is not a very productive pastime

            Disagree. Jo and others are trying to prod the PM into action!

            He still has not proposed a plan for the Coronavirus response. His idea seems to be respond to events as they occur. That is the Herd immunity plan in essence but he has not enunciated that.

            30

            • #
              yarpos

              prod the PM into their preferred action, lets not make out nothing is happening

              I often wonder how many stone slingers have ever been in charge of anything, let alone a country.

              10

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              I disagree. In my reasoning, prodding leads to angry prods which are counter productive.

              Gentle palpation is better than angry, unseasoned prods!

              There are those doctors, and people in general out there with a ‘wait and see’ approach in view of one of the most important medical precepts/maxims that is in a post above this one.

              From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primum_non_nocere
              “Non-maleficence, which is derived from the maxim, is one of the principal precepts of bioethics that all medical students are taught in school and is a fundamental principle throughout the world. Another way to state it is that, “given an existing problem, it may be better not to do something, or even to do nothing, than to risk causing more harm than good.”

              Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only my very own attitude and personal opinion that is still in alpha testing phase. Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP

              11

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                On a happy note, Dr Roy Spencer research is what i will be looking at in a bit more detail over the coming days. It’s a relief to find some promisingly welcome diversity in the corona knowledge universe.

                00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Jo, the maxim, “do no harm” is one of the principal precepts of bioethics that all medical students are taught in school and is a fundamental principle throughout the world.

          It is not a judgement! You can be as curious as you like about the “principal”

          20

          • #

            Exactly “do no harm” — don’t let in thousands of people with a poorly understood virus perhaps?

            Do no harm cuts both ways, should we risk losing control of our whole health system affecting people who need elective surgery, emergency surgery, cancer, car accident, trauma, etc etc. Would they get stressed knowing their non-essential knee transplant/ CAT scan/ stent has just been put off for months?

            20

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              I agree “do no harm” cuts both ways,….my use of the principal even extends to until doctors understand the disease, how can they treat, or make informed decisions? I have been saying treatment of the corona v should be physically separate from existing medical infrastructure. My focus has been on building infrastructure and a system to deal with cases as they arise though not in existing hospitals. All this infrastructure has to be in place and the ultra slow, secretive and completely untransparent government has to get into gear.

              Since finding out more recently that the virus could be a lot more contagious than Gov and the WHO are saying, then it might be similar similar to a war crime and so there might be some explaining to do.

              The disease is new and so we need new doctors and new hospitals that only specialise in corona treatment. Funneling corona through existing hospitals is a mistake in my non expert opinion, it is a gut feeling..

              “These hypothetical separate corona clinics should work along side hospitals with their own staff and so forth. There should have been corona labs and corona clinics popping up everywhere by now. Like many here i am not satisfied with the current measures and complete lack of transparency, especially with respect to each country reporting differently. The lack of good information is off the charts!

              Just think of it….Instead of using the radio to host 24 hour talkback for those who are stuck in self isolation, every station was talking about the football today.

              And……………………………………..If we had non stop talk back radio, we might get more reliable information. The afflicted need a forum and they need to speak somewhere safe.

              And test kits…..

              From: https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/home-diagnostics-startup-everlywell-is-launching-an-at-home-coronavirus-test-sample-kit/
              “Home diagnostics startup Everlywell is launching an at-home coronavirus test sample kit”

              “The state of testing for the novel coronavirus currently spreading globally in the U.S. is abysmal, relative to other developed countries, but there are a number of efforts underway to help improve availability. One company doing their part is at-home lab testing startup Everlywell, which has been offering a number of in-home self collection kits for things like food sensitivity, metabolism, thyroid and more. As of Monday March 23, it’ll also offer a COVID-19 sample collection kit for home use.
              ” [my bolding]
              “Everlywell’s test kit includes swab-based collection equipment, as well as shipping materials that ensure safe transport of a person’s sample as outlined by the CDC and UN Committee of Experts on the Transport of Dangerous Goods to help prevent any possible risk to mail carriers or couriers actually moving the packages. The samples collected are then tested by labs certified for COVID-19 testing under the FDA Emergency Use Authorization issued to help build out America’s testing capacity”

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                farmerbraun

                There is a very good reason why the medical fraternity (is that still O.K.?)in NZ has been kept completely in the dark from the outset.

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              Environment Skeptic

              I agree “do no harm” cuts both ways,….my use of the principal even extends to until doctors understand the disease, how can they treat, or make informed decisions? I have been saying treatment of the corona v should be physically separate from existing medical infrastructure. My focus has been on building infrastructure and a system to deal with cases as they arise though not in existing hospitals. All this infrastructure has to be in place and the ultra slow, secretive and completely untransparent government has to get into gear.

              Since finding out more recently that the virus could be a lot more contagious than Gov and the WHO are saying, then it might be similar similar to a war crime and so there might be some explaining to do.

              The disease is new and so we need new doctors and new hospitals that only specialise in corona treatment. Funneling corona through existing hospitals is a mistake in my non expert opinion, it is a gut feeling..

              “These hypothetical separate corona clinics should work along side hospitals with their own staff and so forth. There should have been corona labs and corona clinics popping up everywhere by now. Like many here i am not satisfied with the current measures and complete lack of transparency, especially with respect to each country reporting differently. The lack of good information is off the charts!

              Just think of it….Instead of using the radio to host 24 hour talkback for those who are stuck in self isolation, every station was talking about the football today.

              And……………………………………..If we had non stop talk back radio, we might get more reliable information. The afflicted need a forum and they need to speak somewhere safe.

              And test kits…..

              From: https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/home-diagnostics-startup-everlywell-is-launching-an-at-home-coronavirus-test-sample-kit/
              “Home diagnostics startup Everlywell is launching an at-home coronavirus test sample kit”

              “The state of testing for the novel coronavirus currently spreading globally in the U.S. is abysmal, relative to other developed countries, but there are a number of efforts underway to help improve availability. One company doing their part is at-home lab testing startup Everlywell, which has been offering a number of in-home self collection kits for things like food sensitivity, metabolism, thyroid and more. As of Monday March 23, it’ll also offer a COVID-19 sample collection kit for home use.
              ” [my bolding]
              “Everlywell’s test kit includes swab-based collection equipment, as well as shipping materials that ensure safe transport of a person’s sample as outlined by the CDC and UN Committee of Experts on the Transport of Dangerous Goods to help prevent any possible risk to mail carriers or couriers actually moving the packages. The samples collected are then tested by labs certified for COVID-19 testing under the FDA Emergency Use Authorization issued to help build out America’s testing capacity”

              [was caught as spam] ED

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        Howie from Indiana

        So you would be willing to sacrifice seniors and those with health issues? I strongly disagree with your take on this.

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          Environment Skeptic

          My mum is a senior in a retirement village and has issues which are made worse by current hysteria. The stress of lockdowns is taking a huge toll.

          Where was anything said about sacrificing seniors and those with health issues??

          I would agree the current lockdown hysteria is making life a lot more difficult and perhaps fatal for seniors and those with existing health issues. The knock on effects of the lockdowns is proving catastrophic in more ways than one and are much broader than those reported in my opinion and observation so far.

          The side effects of the lockdown cure are already proving to be vastly deadlier than the disease could ever be, again, in my opinion.

          Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only the attitude and personal opinion i currently am testing and verifying….Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP:)

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          yarpos

          In a real lethal pandemic that impacted the elderly more then yes, thats basic triage. I dont think this is that though.

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      yarpos

      Your right lets not do what we can do, where we can control it. Lets just chuck in the towel because of some problem we cant even yet define over there somewhere. Good plan.

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    Contemptible Blackguard

    Ì am a conservative who likes to observe what is happening on the left side of life – it’s called checking out the intelligence; just like in a war and spying to find what the enemy is doing, so you can beat them up.

    The majority of your devoted followers will find this very hard to believe and will most likely reject what I have to say.

    Under the noses of the intelligentsia on the right, the left developed a way of getting out of this crisis using govt expenditure. In the last few days the Aust Govt has been announcing all sorts of programs. That expenditure is now being forced on them, as the population very likely will go broke – but they do not need to, and the Govt has the ability to prevent it. The argument goes like this: A currency issuing sovereign such as Aust, UK, the US, and Japan and so on has a monopoly on the issue of money and they cannot go broke in their own currency.

    The left wing professor Bill Mitchell of the Uni of Newcastle NSW has recently become hot property around the world of finance and has been travelling all over the world lecturing people such as the biggest Govt Bond Trader in the world, about his theory known as MMT – Modern Money Theory. Two years ago he was poo pood; but suddenly they found his theory was right and now he has become a darling of the markets, and they are falling over themselves to get his views.

    I don’t agree with some of his leftie views, but on MMT he cannot be beaten: the Govt has to issue currency first, so you and I can pay our tax. We can’t issue Dollars, or we would end up in Porridge for counterfeiting. Therein lies the whole issue. Mitchell and 3 Yankee friends – one of whom is a hedge fund owner – developed the theory over 25 years and have hit the mark.

    This crisis means that the Govts have no choice but to spend to save all sectors not just Tourism, Airlines, Restaurants, Entertainment industries etc. KRudd – who I don’t like – got it right after the GFC and his mate Swanny has been vindicated for the expenditure – Swanny is now an MMTer. My only criticism is they switched off the supply too early, and went for the wrong program – viz., the pink batts which sadly cost 4 young lives.

    This time however the Govt will be forced to go really big and for as long as it takes, or Armageddon is staring us all down. I am excited that they will now be forced into dropping the obsession with surplus, as it will solve a number of issues. Jo you are right about the method of killing the virus; and the Govt has the resources to do it. They just need the Cohones to get on with it. Slomo just needs to show leadership and start Quantitative Easing for the public who do the spending and have now been screwed.

    One more point: Leaving aside borrowings from abroad (the external sector) when the Govt goes into deficit where does that money go? – it flows into our pockets and we go into surplus. It’s called the accounting entity and is very easy to understand. As Mitchell likes to point out Australia has spent 85% of its existence in Deficit and did that screw us? NO it did not.

    He used to cop it from all directions but I have watched him over almost a decade and he consistently shoots his critics down. The said Bond Trader swears by MMT. Mitchell is smart and we all need to listen to him. Jo please make contact with and interview him? You and your devoted audience can make up their own minds. He has a blog and here is a link to his Monday version. Look at the two links inside that blog and you might be persuaded that he is right: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=44507.

    One final point. He has one other achilles heel: he is a flipping warmist but I am sure you could schmooze your way around him – and maybe convince him of the errors in his thinking.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Which reminds me, the Australian dollar has crashed against the U.S. dollar over the last few years.

      Our buying power out there in the real world is now half of what it was in recent times.

      No.
      You can’t just print money to cover political incompetence without ugly consequences.

      Faux politicians, Faux academics, Dumb country.

      KK

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      el gordo

      QE is taking place and Morrison will lead us out of this malaise with massive government intervention. Globalisation is yesterday’s meme, old world capitalism takes a big hit and socialism with Australian characteristics is the new norm.

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      • #
        Mike Jonas

        el gordo – have you noticed how different ScoMo’s “QE” is to Kevin Rudd’s? KR just threw money at people, and threw money at unwanted school halls. Most of the money thrown at people went straight to China for TVs. SM is throwing money mainly at businesses. By saving businesses from going under the people benefit too.

        Nothing’s perfect, but in a situation where business cannot keep up the flow of cash to government, the government needs to take less. If business risks going negative, the government must consider that for itself too. SM isn’t bringing in “socialism with Australian characteristics”, he is trying to ensure the survival of our version of capitalism.

        IMHO.

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          el gordo

          ‘… our version of capitalism.’

          Agreed, but at the moment we can’t imagine what that will look like. Having a centre right government in power is a bonus and the PM will continue to take the best advice on offer.

          After the dust settles, business that survived can pick up where they left off, there will be winners and losers. Will the property market collapse, leading to depression?

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      Analitik

      MMT assumes a closed monetary system so that all money issued only ever circulates within that economic zone with no interaction with others (and it is simply another way to socialize debt). If foreign exchange is needed, then hyperinflation is ensured.

      No MMT is not a solution, unless we can transform to autarky.

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      truth

      Contemptible Blackguard….

      I haven’t read all of your Bill Mitchell’ ideas and I’ll read further…but from the article you refer to my first thoughts are that it’s ‘back to the past’ in the worst way…way back.

      Sounds like a hybrid of Rex Connor and the Marxist/Communist Whitlam Dep-PM Jim Cairns….and Labor’s Socialist Objective of the late 70s..early 80s…wherein people like Gareth Evans were pining for government ownership and control of all means of production and distribution and an end to private property…full-on Fabian /Marxist total control by a political elite…the objective that Labor had…. five minutes before they supposedly morphed into free marketeers to steal the Liberal DRY policies that Labor had reviled and denounced from Labor’s inception.

      In their new-found mode as free enterprise Capitalists…unfetterd by any questions from an adoring …and I mean adoring….LW MSM about their sincerity …Labor proceeded to seduce the Australian people into thinking a Union bosses/Labor/selected crony Capitalist comrades partnership government …enriching Labor …enriching the cronies and BigBiz Labor benefactors and massively empowering and enriching union bosses…would deliver wondrous things for the Australian people.

      A similar process is happening now with the Socialist [even with this WetLeft Morrison government] transition of Australia to 3rd world government-dependent…weather-dependent poverty and universal insecurity as a precursor to Global Socialism….a process well-telegraphed …excitedly…by Rudd’s 2007 ‘former’ Communist guru/adviser.

      What that Hawke/Keating caper delivered was humungous LOSS for the Australian people…in massive unemployment…huge inflation….highest ever interest rates …huge loss of homes…near-destruction of Medicare…near destruction of the apprenticeship system…near-destruction of Australia’s by-then demoralized military….compulsory superannuation that hived off wages of workers to stash away so that union officials and ex-Labor MPs could become rich as Croesus on fees and charges while the fate and worth of workers’ super was at their mercy….where it remains.

      It looks like Bill Mitchells prescription ends up with government funding everything to control everything ….ie massively bigger government…workers’ money paid out to the luvvies in Arts Grants for mind-blowing rubbish plus Union bosses’ long-held dream of total control over tradies…those pesky real workers who dare to aspire to building their own businesses…aspirationals who are a very inconvenient spanner in the works of those who would rule us and jackboot us….as in the Whitlam years when unions bragged that they could bring Australia to its knees with overnight decisions to stop all transport…teachers’ strikes just before exams….Australia-wide postal strikes just before Christmas….regular and frequent waterfront strikes so that Australian producers would see their export product rot on the Australian wharves…likewise imports…business going to the wall because their supplies were held hostage on the wharves by high-paid thugs and their higher-paid union bosses….misery misery …always on the cusp of chaos.

      And Mitchell’ preferred take on the GFC seems to align with the increasingly irrational Rudd’s.

      Post-GFC and his loss of power…uber-rich Rudd declared the GFC to be the ultimate example of why ‘Neo-Liberalism’ must be replaced by Socialism…..as he attributed the debacle to Capitalism and greedy Capitalists.

      Like all on that side of politics, these Socialists must know that it was Socialist engineering of the bank-lending system by the Socialist Clinton administration and its uber-rich Socialist Treasury Secretary Rubin that precipitated and was the indispensable pre-requisite for the GFC….that the Bush administration tried to prevent before being cut off at the pass by the Democrats’ Barney Frank and his Democrat comrades….whose Socialist noses were…as always…. the ones buried deepest in the Socialist-manufactured trough .

      The ink was barely dry on the Clinton/Rubin legislation to repeal Glass-Steagall Act…in order to facilitate the rise of mega-banks and their confected ‘securities’ that depended for their apparent value on ‘safe as houses’ mortgage payments by regular Americans ….regular payments that should have backed their otherwise dodgy instruments….hardly dry before Clinton’s architect …Treasury Secretary Rubin left government to join one of the very megabanks he’d created whereat his remuneration increased beyond his wildest dreams in the mad rush to create ‘mortgage-backed securities/ to be sold in unprecedented numbers around the world.

      The ‘mortgages’ that gave the securities all their apparent worth were Clinton’s NINJA loans…the loans he forced regular bankers [ under threat of personal ruin for them…even jail] to make to people with no jobs …no income…no prospect thereof.

      Bankers who resisted were viciously physically targeted in their own homes….but Clinton himself was even more the darling of the nefarious Left….the great compassionista.

      I’ll read a lot more of your man’s prescriptions for the world…but so far I find it very hard to believe you are a conservative.
      Sorry for the length of this.

      [ Adjusted per request ] AD

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        WXcycles

        Read a lot of Bill Mitchell and Co in 2010 to 2011, as well as Steve Keene and Co.

        In the end the MMT system weakness is it can not control inflation and tends to strongly promote it, with no realistic answers to it. Not a great feature for a working stiff to live through. Except another feature of MMT is that via an assured income and wage level for everyone in the lower tier of earnings, it takes away incentive and reward of a private business and exceptional performances and capacities, leaving us with a comatose culture, society, lack of innovation and an economy run by a giant Govt that does not care about business conditions at all. Why do you need a prosperous economy for taxation if you can print all the money you’ll ever (precariously theoretically) need, hence the wee inflation detraction. If the theory is wrong we lose half a century sorting it out and learning functional Capitalism again.

        Steve Keene’s global debt reset ‘Jubilee’ made a lot more sense to me as an ultimate solution. At least that’s a Devil we do know, we have limited versions of it now, and we know what it would produce will work extremely well in recovery. Our system works very well when it has not been driven to its ultimate debt limit to a loss of confidence and then stagnation, which a debt Jubilee resets back to a fully functional state of no outstanding debt. Then limit credit and freed up exuberance by regulating the tax level (rather than regulating interest on debt paid to banks) to limit inflation growth while providing excess revenue for large public surplus and Govt investment to rebuild the country’s infrastructure.

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      • #

        Excellent summary truth.
        I am keeping it for further reference.
        Thanks

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      truth

      Moderator …my comment to Contemptible Blackguard….that’s awaiting moderation… has a huge mistake…the name of the person whose thesis I was commenting on being Mitchell…not Matthews.

      If the length of it is a problem I’ll break it up as well.

      Abject apologies!

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      Broadie

      Dear ‘Contemptible Blackguard’,

      Jo & David have devoted a lot of time to Currency by Fiat. You should have followed this blog earlier.

      There is another way, that does not involve the MMT ‘Kick the can down the road to enslave our children’ solution.
      Declare a National Emergency, this is, and it has nothing to do with Chinese Wuhan Kung Flu. We are living Animal Farm from where the pigs moved into the Farmer’s House. Complete with the building of windmills.

      Unchain the Australian people from the ridiculous Legislation and Regulation that enslaves them.
      The National Employment Standards and Fairwork Act are Lawyer fodder and should go. They have made employing too risky.
      Return the Senate to a State’s House so they must vote as a State Bloc as was the intention. The Senate should not be a stage for a Fairy from the bottom of each garden to combine and lead us over a cliff.
      Get rid of the standards that prevent States competing for industry, education, health provision and innovation
      Clear the Judiciary of the Political operatives and return to where Magistrates were appointed from Clerks of Court. We need to restore the separation of power. I would love a Magistrate to stand up and throw the Ambulance Chasers out of their court. That would immediately decrease the cost of every widget and service provided in Australia.
      Political parties to be thrown out of the taxpayers pocket, make them go to their constituencies for funds and to reconnect with reality.

      And stand back!
      Bureaucracies do not pick winners, that is why we have now arrived at the point where Socialism fails. Our roofs full of imported solar house combustion panels and our ridges covered with useless bird mincers. Our workers, the small business owners are on their knees and it wasn’t that particular parasitic bug from China that was responsible.

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    max

    Just in the last generation, we’ve had hantavirus, the bird flu, swine flu, Zika, West Nile, MERS, SARS, and H1N1. We’ve also had anthrax—which everybody’s forgotten about.

    They’ve all had their day in the dark sun of mass hysteria.

    Now this one is said to be ten times worse in terms of death rate than a normal flu. Is that true? It seems that if you get it, your odds of dying are much worse but still minimal. Normal seasonal cases of the flu kill maybe 50,000 people a year in the US. But we don’t even notice that.
    So what’s the worst-case scenario regarding this virus?
    Nobody really knows because it is a new virus. They’re still figuring it out, but maybe between 1% and 2% of the people who get it will die, mostly the old, the sick, and the obese. If you’re in one of those categories, you should take it very seriously.
    The interesting thing about this virus is that very few have died so far, anywhere; the numbers would have been unnoticeable outside of the media hysteria. Not even a rounding error on a rounding error.

    Poverty, not flu, is what really kills masses of people. This is why these second-order effects are so important.
    The hysteria is unnecessary and foolish. But sometimes hysterias seem to come out of nowhere, like the witch crazes of the 17th century. Did the economy shut down for any of the past viruses that I mentioned?
    The answer is no—not even for the Spanish flu, which was largely forgotten until just now. Now, that was serious. It was a chaotic wartime environment, and medicine was primitive—we didn’t even know viruses existed.
    Now, as was probably the case in 1918, almost everybody is going to wind up getting the flu because the flu is a virus. By definition, it goes viral.

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/doug-casey/the-biggest-thing-since-1776-is-happening-now-how-the-coronavirus-will-spark-the-greater-depression/

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      Worst case is 5% death rate (China, and 4% Italy apparently).

      Worst case is people dying at home because they can’t get a bed at a hospital. Wuhan 2020.

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        Environment Skeptic

        Those numbers of 5% and 4% case mortality might not be very granular as yet and so still mere speculation. The sooner vastly more test kits become available, the sooner we will know the real numbers. .., The good news might be that the work done Dr Roy Spencer has resolved a little more granularity to the case mortality numbers? Very interesting work. I was very impressed. Still looking at it, and it gives me reasons to be cheerful.

        “Some COVID-19 vs. Malaria Numbers: Countries with Malaria have Virtually no Coronavirus Cases Reported
        March 18th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.”
        https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/03/some-covid-19-vs-malaria-numbers-countries-with-malaria-have-virtually-no-coronavirus-cases-reported/

        Disclaimer: My views and opinions should not be interpreted as medical advice, and are only my very own attitude and personal opinion that is still in alpha testing phase. Always seek qualified medical advice from your GP etc.

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          Sunni Bakchat

          Are you suggesting the coronavirus incidence is lower due to widespread use of Quinine based products?

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          • #
            tonyb

            sunni

            See the previous thread where this was widely discussed. There seems to be a lot of evidence that anti malarial drugs have a considerable impact on the virus. Dr Spencer was suggesting there is a very close correlation with little covid 19 in malaria prone countries. Its early days yet of course

            The UK banned the export of an anti malaria drug just a couple of weeks ago and are currently carrying out tests to ascertain its effectiveness.

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              Sunni Bakchat

              Tonyb, well across the subject for several days. Posted on the subject over a week ago but nobody particularly interested at the time.

              Trump has now held a press conference on same – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GuNbGC2D_8

              No further discussion yet on Zinc Synergies.

              Truly hard to believe head of FDA would later contradict trump insisting on full clinical trial. Guessing he FDA chief won’t be in the role much longer.

              Question now as posted already (little response); what is the effective dose of Quinine with Zinc? Assuming a zinc dosage of 30mg per day. Would 50-100mg daily of Quinine be effective?

              Melatonin also showing early promise. Very little discussion on this yet.

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              • #
                el gordo

                There is a strong possibility that the virus decays rapidly in the atmosphere on bright sunny days. Temperature may play a part, but the jury is still out.

                I was thinking of driving to Darwin for the Southern Hemisphere winter, they haven’t closed the border yet.

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              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                “The gin and tonic has saved more Englishmen’s lives, and minds, than all the doctors in the Empire” according to Winston Churchill.

                However, it’s not without side effects for some:

                “His estimated consumption of the tonic water alone was up to 80 ounces over 2 days.” Not Churchill’s, but the patient’s.

                https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4365124/

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        yarpos

        and best case? it does exist , why do we never mention it?

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  • #
    Doc

    I find it hard to believe that most of Australia’s
    cases earlier on were from overseas travel. What is hard
    to believe is, the supplied numbers given for infected
    people were and still are so low yet so many
    Travellers seem to have come in contact with them.
    Surely there must be a huge underlying cohort of
    asymptomatic carriers virtually in most popular
    tourist nations. Otherwise, Australians seem very
    Unlucky travellers.

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      Bill In Oz

      That is exactly what is happening !
      Countries like Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines,Vietnam, India,
      Cambodia and the USA
      Have NOT tested for this virus effectively or in high numbers…
      So Aussie tourists & others flying to Australia have brought it back with them.
      What’s going on ?
      A couple of factors:
      1 Health systems in these countries are not up to scratch.
      2: A reluctance to kill off the golden tourist dollar by scaring away tourists
      3: A rather dopey naievity by Australians overseas ‘On holiday” having a good time and not bothering to think about the risks

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      • #

        As I said previously.

        If there is a huge underlying cohort of asymptomatic carriers then the mortality rate is much lower than we have been led to believe.

        If there isn’t then the rate of infection is much lower than we have been led to believe.

        Can’t be both and if Aussies are coming back with infections from nations with low numbers then it is more likely to be the former.

        If it is the former, then Jo’s solutions may be overkill.

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          Bill In Oz

          Stephen, Yes there probably is “a huge underlying cohort of asymptomatic carriers” in these countries.
          But that just emphasises the importance of closing the borders weeks ago.
          Which as we know did not happen.
          Having waited too long, we now have the problem of preventing it spreading within Australia.
          Bugger !

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          • #

            For the 20th time:

            South Korea has tested 300,000 people and the mortality rate is still 9 times higher than the Flu.

            The Diamond Princess tested every single person on board. Mortality rate = 1%.

            We can keep hoping that there are a large pool of asymptomatic cases or we can deal with the likelihood that this is at best only 5 times as bad as the influenza and at worst — without an ICU unit — it is 50 times as deadly.

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        • #
          Mark D.

          Who’s razor is that Steven?

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      • #

        All the cases in Australia of people who returned fom overseas involved countries with reported cases.

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      Doc

      My point is, travellers have been returning from
      many places around the world, including Europe.
      In the early stages a month or so ago the viral incidence
      report from most places was low. The medical
      systems were not medieval at all. Yet we seemed
      to be getting so many people from all over
      Returning with disease severe enough to be
      reported. To get the disease in such a world of
      small infectious numbers, so small that they
      Weren’t raising a lot of concern would be
      Like winning lotto. It seems like a very
      weird beast, this bug.

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      • #

        Doc since the rest of the world are ahead of in sheer numbers it is hardly surprising we got most cases from flights. Though that was probably already changing to mostly local infections as SlowMo shut the gate too late.

        It was still worth shutting but had he done it a week earlier he would have saved thousands …

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        Bill In Oz

        Re “The medical systems were not medieval at all. ”
        True if you are well off in Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia etc.
        But for the overwhelming majority of the people who are dead poor, there is NO health system !
        And the same is true in the USA..Wealthy with insurance ? Fine ! The poor without either ? They are stuffed !
        Personal experience !

        And these are all those travel holiday places we Aussies love to go to !

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      yarpos

      Whi is it hard to beleive? what would be an easier to believe source?

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    mikewaite

    I was initially doubtful about the need for the drastic controls on freedom of movement proposed by Jo and many here (and belatedly by politicians everywhere)
    on the grounds that we have never done it before although deaths in the UK from seasonal flu run into thousands each and every winter.
    However the dreadful situation in, say, Italy, has caused a change of mind – clearly this is not just “manflu” that feminist stand -up comedians used
    to joke about.
    I also looked at the data for UK from the Worldometer site
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    and noticed that cases seemed to come in pulses or waves, separated by 5 or 6 days. Is this a working week effect: workers commuting
    with fellow workers and in offices for 5 days, and finding thmselves infected after that exposure time?
    It would help if the statistics could be dissected according to region and status of victim. London is particularly badly hit, and commuting conditions there (believe me I suffered with that for 17 years) are guaranteed to pass on any infection.
    Having said all that, the statistics for Italy do not show the UK effect, so maybe it is just statistical effects.
    But if there is something in those observations, then working from home, social distancing, curbing nonessential travel should have an effect.
    But as my wife then remarked, what happens when peoople return to work?

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      tonyb

      mike

      Please see my comment below to Sunni. The UK and Italian experience are not remotely similar for a variety of cultural factors.

      However, as LP Hartley might have said ‘London is a foreign city, they do things differently there’ so they are likely to experience more severe cases than most other places in the Uk.

      Will it be different to a bad flu season such as 2014, 48000 UK deaths or even 2017 27000 deaths? I doubt it, even if you combine the deaths from both. But then jo pops up to say flu and covid 19 aren’t the same thing. Which I know, but neither has an effective vaccine and flu strikes across a broader demographic but will carry off the most vulnerable, which is similar to covid 19.

      What is different is that the economy isn’t closed down and civil liberties suspended in a bad flu season which means the financial mayhem is ultimately likely to be more profound in its effect and longevity than the death toll in the current panic

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    ren

    Breadth of concomitant immune responses prior to patient recovery: a case report of non-severe COVID-19
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2

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      RickWill

      That is all good to know. I guess not everyone progresses in the same way but it appears the worst outcomes occur from immune response impact on the lungs leading to respiratory distress. The images of her lungs from presentation to discharge shows how it was developing and then clearing.

      Anyone progressing from a “head cold” to lung issues should be seeking medical help.

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        yarpos

        our next door neighbour progressed that way and was tested and isolated. Happily (sort of) it was just bronchitis.

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    Analitik

    Recent reports from the USA and Italy seem to support the ZeroHedge article I mentioned in another thread which had large proportions of those requiring time in an ICU being 50 or under, without underlying conditions. Their survival rate was much higher but it highlights the need to prevent our hospitals being overwhelmed.

    See the following Bloomberg article
    Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19
    In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44.

    As for the main topic of this thread, I can’t see it being effectively implemented without a quick but definitive test for the SARS-CoV-2 infection, given that you can be pre-symptomatic and still infectious and that we don’t know how long this period is plus the proportion of asymptomatic carriers is a total unknown.

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    Analitik

    I suspect Ben Bernake helped with the filtering implementation or specifications, so great is the moderation.

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    cedarhill

    Again. Effective quarantines in the modern world are just to make folks feel as if doing something, anything, that might work might protect them somehow even though nearly everyone has been exposed. It’s treatments and vaccines that actually will “flatten” the curves not wishful, poorly enforced, quasi-quarantines which create even more panic confusion about a virus which is, at best, no more lethal than the flu (see CDC’s weekly flu surveillance reporting (note confirmed cases so you can compare using the same yardstick): https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    IMPORTANT CLINICAL RESULTS:
    According to Gregory Rigano, an advisor to Stanford University School of Medicine, a world renowned French researcher tested a promising COVID-19 treatment option with a drug that’s been around for decades and is typically used to treat malaria.

    “As of this morning…a well-controlled peer reviewed study carried out by the most eminent infectious disease specialist in the world—Didier Raoult, MD, PhD—out of the south of France, in which he enrolled 40 patients…that showed a 100 percent cure rate against coronavirus,” Rigano told Fox News’s Tucker Carlson.

    Carlson, looking shocked, said he “only knows what you’re telling me” but that it is “very unusual for a study of anything to produce results of 100 percent.”

    Link here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

    It’s not a full double blind randomized trial but I’d really trust, at this point, factual clinical results might slow the trajectory (flatten the curve) of hysteria and panic.

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      Lance

      The “Hemmingway Version” of the paper is:

      After 6 days 100% of patients treated with HCQ + Azithromycin were virologically cured

      Full peer reviewed study has been released by Didier Raoult MD, PhD

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view?usp=sharing ….

      If true, good news indeed.

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        Cedarhill, true partial quarantines only reduce the Ro slightly, but Didiers work is exactly the reason we go hard and fast now.

        We know we will find ways to bring mortality down. Why kill so many now before we have those answers?

        We will find ways to make this virus extinct if we are determined enough. But we must shrink the territory it controls.

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        yarpos

        Makes you wonder why , if the drug has been around for decades and is well known and broadly utilised, it isnt being rapidly and widely used especially in hot spots. Its not as though its a an unknown and patients are being exposed to unkown risks.

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    The Dark Lord

    or just cordon off the vulnerable … then it doesn’t matter if you crush it or flatten it …

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  • #
    The Dark Lord

    or just cordon off the vulnerable … then it doesn’t matter if you crush it or flatten it …

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    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Makes sense.

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      • #

        Except that we don’t know exactly who all the vulnerable are. The two doctors in Wuhan who were 29 and 34 did not have preexisting conditions.

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        • #
          yarpos

          How about we just go with the main identfied group , do those , rather than do nothing because there are outliers. I guess this is effectively whats the purpose of the nursing home restrictions is.

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    observa

    We’ll stop this virus if it damn well kills us all economically!

    Bottom line Jo is we aint like the commies to force everyone into lockdown their homes. We can’t even put the rattan cane around the bums of fat ferals fighting over toilet paper so let’s give it up now and accept this is the start of one helluva flu season and all hands on deck.

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      observa, and we can’t force people to send their kids to school or to go to work either.

      The economy is going to tank either way until this virus is under control.

      Crushing the curve is cheaper than the long slow bleed with likely loss of hospital care.

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  • #

    Pee-pull are dy-ying! Shame on yoo!

    We’re all Greta now. Except no yacht rides either.

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      Environment Skeptic

      Thanks mosomoso ..Wow! Amazing societal observation!..hope i can sleep tonight lol

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    • #

      Anyone sniffing a connection between the elaborate Greta show and the present show? (No, not that global financial crash thingy…I mean the main show, the Corona show, sillies!)

      Yep. What seemed ambitious when Greta hoisted her first Skolstreyk poster is now one’s reality. The difference being ah-choo! instead of CO2. Golly, I wonder if someone had something in mind all along…

      Keep looking hard for some skepticism, people, because it’s getting as rare as rocking-horse doo…https://tinyurl.com/upemag9

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      • #

        The Greta people are in fact making the argument that if we can mobilize to stop this virus we can do so to stop climate catastrophe. I see a different analog, namely people are prone to panic.

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          truth

          Th e left will make use of the crisis though…the signs are already there.

          Labor here are positioning themselves to grab power on the strength of this crisis …just as they have done and will continue to do with climate change….ably assisted by WetLeft Libs leading both State and Federal lNP governments….starting with the fairy stories about Labor’s great GFC triumph that only holds water if they leave out …as they do… the huge surplus the Howard government left for them to squander….and the Clinton/Rubin Social[ist] engineering that was at the GFC’s core…plus the fact that it was uber-rich Socialist individuals and orgs who were involved in the Social[st] engineering …who became infinitely richer on the back of the GFC.

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        joseph

        Here’s The Boiler Room . . . . . Quarantine Day Three . . . . with TruthStreamMedia . . . . .

        https://www.alternatecurrentradio.com/news-radio/acr-boiler-room/

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      • #

        I see a connection: In the climate debate one side likes to use analogies that are irrelevant while the other considers the observations and the data.

        The Greta types won’t be remotely happy with Coronavirus. They didn’t want to stop flying, they just want to make it more expensive to keep the riff raff off the plane.

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    Sunni Bakchat

    The Coronavirus analogue is rapidly shaping up to be like the beginnings of the Great Depression of the 1930′s. It is perhaps something in the psyche that develops after a long period of prosperity. An apathy or forgotten sense of what is required. A subtle narcissistic guilt that saps the sense of self.

    The situation here in Switzerland reeks of apathy. Every day i go to the supermarket with a basic P95 (tradesman’s) mask on. Very few others wear masks. They’ve been told not to because they’ll supposedly starve medical facilities of same. They’ve been told it is unnecessary. On the other side of the Alps in Lombardy, everyone is wearing masks for fear of their lives. They see the grim reaper waiting to pick them off in every conversation they have.

    Every day I ask the local pharmacists, who are now perched behind retractable airport-style check-in safety belt lanes for distancing purposes, for supplies of hand sanitiser or masks. They have none. When will they get some in? No idea the pharmacist says with a gallic half shrug. There seems to be no point at all asking for testing.

    If the two week hiatus is about beating this scourge, it seems so very half hearted. People will become restless in a fortnight. Our hard-wired desire for face to face social contact will pressure us and tempt us into false rationality. We will cut corners. We will forget to do things we should do.

    If the plan is to eventually relax the rules so people with N95 masks can circulate, we’re nowhere near this after after three days of “shutdown”. If the plan is to open up international borders when rapid testing becomes available, we’re nowhere near that either.

    Meanwhile Rome burns. People here are asking themselves “can i telework?”, “can i have a video chat with my architect, doctor or bank manager”. This all seems theoretically great until you realise there are epic levels of loneliness out there thanks to social media. The question continuously arises – Why are there no masks? Why is there no testing? No doubt in time they will come. But the apathy and lack of urgency is palpable. I fear for those singletons i see having a smoke outside the local takeaway. Those who have no other to be with at home during this period.

    Australia once had a clear vision of what quarantine meant. It was simple. You stayed in quarantine for six weeks when you first came to Australia. I’m sure the Swiss did the same 70-80 years ago. We’re just damn slow learners as jo implies. We’ve put ourselves into economic purgatory. We’ve run to a standstill. We think it won’t happen to us. Australians will soon understand first hand what i’m describing.

    This virus, as was always going to be the case, is teaching us all an overdue lesson in humility. Let’s hope Nietsche’s epithet on what doesn’t kill us will make us stronger is applicable.

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    • #
      tonyb

      Sunni

      “The situation here in Switzerland reeks of apathy. Every day i go to the supermarket with a basic P95 (tradesman’s) mask on. Very few others wear masks. They’ve been told not to because they’ll supposedly starve medical facilities of same. They’ve been told it is unnecessary. On the other side of the Alps in Lombardy, everyone is wearing masks for fear of their lives. They see the grim reaper waiting to pick them off in every conversation they have”

      I know Switzerland and Italy very well. There is no comparison between the two countries. The age profile is different=Italians have the oldest demographics in Europe. Far fewer smoke. One third of the population is not immune to anti biotics like the Italians

      The Swiss are like the British, not at all tactile and they do not have frequent intergenerational family get togethers where one generation can unwittingly infect another. The People in the Milan area often live in tiny flats and have poor air quality due to the density of the population and the many factories.

      I would not expect the number of deaths in Switzerland to be remotely in the same numbers as Italy by proportion. Which is not to say that you shouldn’t take sensible precautions but if that lockdown crashes society and people emerge in 4 weeks to a shattered economy the financial impact will be much more profound than the health impact

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        Sunni Bakchat

        Tonyb, agree with your thoughts. I visit Milan at least every month. Hoping the factors discussed are clinically beneficial.

        Today saw a jump in mask wearing to about 50% in Vesenaz (Geneva). Shop staff still not wearing masks. No hand sanitiser or masks available for purchase till the end of next week. Mask for health pro’s only at that time.

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        • #

          Sunni, very interesting comment. Thanks.

          I too was the only one in a mask in Perth earlier this week.

          PS: You can make hand sanitizer with ingredients you may still be able to mail order. If someone finds a good recipe please let me know. There are probably several versions depending on the form of alcohol available.

          In Feb I bought 5L cleaning alcohol, and 1L of aloe gel and some glyercine.

          There must be DIY masks out there too.

          People could probably make money by manufacturing them and selling them. It must be possible.

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            RickWill

            People could probably make money by manufacturing them and selling them. It must be possible.

            The army have been providing labour to increase mask production in the only remaining mask factory in Australia:
            https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6684074/the-australian-army-is-being-subbed-in-to-help-make-face-masks/

            The team of engineering maintenance specialists from the Army Logistic Training Centre and the Joint Logistics Unit will plug a short-term gap in labour, while the Victorian manufacturer recruits and trains extra staff.

            “These skilled soldiers are with the company’s existing staff on production, maintenance and warehousing tasks,” Senator Reynolds said.

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          • #

            A minion made some for me today…

            https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/Ab2CCnxyLQF7yBojf9dj8L?domain=who.int

            basically ethanol or isopopanol water glycerine and H2O2

            All can be found in regular shops though not a prominent item. The H2O2 is desirable but can be omitted. Food and medical grade chemicals are actually better than ultr-pure lab grade due to the toxicity of trace impurities used in purification processes.

            Note that ethanol and isoporpanol bought as rubbing alcohol etc might already be cut with water so check the percentages and also if it is v/v or w/w. 80% v/v ethanol is approx 70% w/w

            don’t use while smoking

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            John PAK

            I saw a FB video of a very English shop owner demonstrating his option for a facemask. It was a rather skimpy set of Union Jack ladies knickers. While intending be funny he was making the point that many items could be used so long as they seal around the edges and have reasonably fabric thickness.

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            Sunni Bakchat

            Coronavirus doesn’t appear to reward selfishness.

            Authorities wanted to make sure there wasn’t a shortage of masks for medical use a few weeks ago. We were told not to wear masks on the basis doing so would not stop ingress of the bug. This was clearly disingenuous advice.

            The personally relevant aspect is that masks are very effective at slowing down droplet expulsions from the nose/mouth as well as decreasing hand to mouth/nose contact. The selfless approach is very effective if everyone follows it. The Authorities undermined this on the basis there might not be enough masks to go around. It probably wouldn’t have negated quarantine but it likely would have slowed the spread if mask wearing adoption was high. Were there enough masks though? If not, was it because production has been sent offshore? Are masks being allocated by central authorities inefficiently?

            It makes sense that everyone should wear a mask in public places on the assumption a certain percentage will be carrying coronavirus unknowingly. The dominant paradigm of thought is now, courtesy of the authorities on behalf of the medical establishment, don’t wear a mask as it won’t help. This is clearly wrong, at least in the short term whilst mask shortages exist.

            How will the authorities reverse their advice on mask wearing now without appearing disingenuous? The public seem to just be calling this out as self-serving nonsense and wearing masks, if they can obtain them. A glaring example of the failing of the pandemic response. It also highlights the tension between a state that wants to control medical resources and private individuals who wish to protect themselves.

            If we are to move from home isolation to cautious distancing in public; when everyone inevitably gets sick to death of re-watching Monty Python’s Meaning of Life, Breaking Bad and Downton Abbey; We’ll undoubtedly be looking to protect from clustered viral outbreaks. Wearing a mask if you’re other than antibody positive would make a hell of a lot of sense.

            The bigger question (from a Swiss perspective) is how long people will have to suffer from a lack of hand sanitiser, masks and testing before community irritation boils over. Most people wish to have a degree of control over their own lives. Are authorities unnecessarily centralising control in the circumstances?

            We are now into the fifth day of lockdown. Sanitiser will only become available where we live in Switzerland on the last day of the lockdown. On that same last day masks will become available only for medical professionals. Nobody has a clue about testing. This hardly sounds like a recipe for isolation not to be extended.

            For society to move towards getting back on its feet, we need to move from isolation to trialling managed social distancing via the blanket use of masks. This is already happen ing voluntarily at food stores, pharmacies, petrol stations, etc.. Clearly enhanced hand sanitation will also still be necessary. After this perhaps antigen/body testing can perhaps move us further forward still. How does this happen when the means to achieve are not even within the isolation timeframes set by the state?

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    RicDre

    On the positive side, a very nice article:

    God Bless the Grocery Store Workers Protecting Our Supply Chains

    https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/19/nolte-god-bless-the-grocery-store-workers-protecting-our-supply-chains/

    Let me add my thanks to the farmers, truck drives, warehouse workers and all of the people in the Grocery industry; we often take them for granted but things would be far worse than they are without them.

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    • #
      ralf ellis

      .
      Does this mean we are at last sorting out the workers from the phone-sanatizers?
      Is SpaceX building their rocket for the latter??
      R

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      yarpos

      Many supermarket workers are tired, stressed out, tired of abuse and continually on guard for physical altercations.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    There are about 200,000 “homeless” in California, all compromised and already antisocial.
    They were affirmatively not policed before the virus, and resources are scarce now.
    There are perhaps five times that number undocumented living outside “normal” society in California
    also affirmatively not policed. There are difficult populations in all our our big cities.
    Makes a “hard stop” much more difficult, probably requiring martial law and military cordons in some places.
    Doubt we have the will, so flatten the curve it is.

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    Richard Ilfeld

    If we are going to do an infrastructure bill as part of the recovery, before we spend a nickel on the wet dreams
    of the windmill advocates, how about bringing all of our water and sewer systems up to spec?
    Public health, and all that, you know. Then harden the grid, attack the fire risk, bring our EMT and medical facilities
    up to date fixing all the flaws that will have been revealed. If Windmills still make any sense leave it for the investors.

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      yarpos

      That makes so much sense I can immediately give you a rolled gold gaurantee that nothing like that will happen, and the usual snouts will be in the trough.

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    Tim Spence

    We’re confined to house here in Spain, we are allowed to walk the dog but no more than 300 metres from house. Now, there are no stray dogs in Spain ! It’s an ill wind.

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  • #

    Examining the global trend and the performance of individual nations within that trend it does look as though interpersonal hygiene as determined by cultural factors is the key to defeating this virus.
    On that basis I am hoping that the behavioural changes in the UK in recent weeks will filter through to an earlier control of the infection and death rate than is currently predicted.
    If that is correct then the transmission ability of the virus may be far less fearsome than currently assessed.
    China outside Hubei province is not showing anything like the figures within that province and Japan is culturally fastidious about interpersonal hygiene.
    Italy is rather like Muslim communities in the UK with intergenerational households and a very tactile culture hence a recent observation that one quarter of the UK fatalities are Muslim adults. That skews the UK figures substantially.

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    Red Edward

    And the latest numbers coming out of John Hopkins:

    US cases: At least 11,238

    US deaths: At least 157

    The US is still riding the J Curve. . .

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    PeterS

    Jo you are panicking and focusing on the wrong issue. It’s not the virus we should be afraid of. It can and is being contained as best we can. Confidence is the key issue. We are at the brink of a major depression unless governments around the world step up and enforce a policy that banks place a moratorium on mortgage and small business loan payments for at least 6 months. Lowering interest rates will not be enough and in fact can be counter productive at such already low levels. Negative interest rates will destroy the bond market leading to a financial crisis that would make the GFC look like a picnic. Confidence must be restored otherwise the public will continue to panic, businesses will foreclose everywhere and governments will default as their tax revenues dry up and government pensions and the like stop in spite of their so called guarantees.

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      Bill In Oz

      Peter, Jo is not panicking. You got a red thumb from me for that remark….
      This blog is about science based issues.
      The COVID 19 disease is a global pandemic.
      That’s health issue and the science is bloody clear & simple.
      STOP IT or lots of people will die or suffer long term damage to health.

      The threat of economic disruption is also very real as you point out.
      But that is an economic & political issue which must be dealt with separately.
      Maybe SLOMO & Co will get their act together on this faster than
      Thy did with the COVID 19 health stuff they have allowed to develop.

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        PeterS

        Point taken. I just feel there’s too much focus in the MSM on the virus, just as thee was on climate change catastrophe. Although the difference is one is real and the other is a hoax, there are a lot of similarities. In fact I tend to believe the heightened anxiety caused by Greta and others over CAGW has made the current financial panic worse than it would have been otherwise. Now people are saying if climate change won’t end the world, the crash in the markets will. No they won’t, at least not yet by the market crash – the big one is yet to come.

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          Kalm Keith

          “the difference is one is real and the other is a hoax”?

          Undoubtedly there is such a thing as CoronaV19.

          The real and uncertain issue is it’s lethality.

          As Jo says, there’ve been many deaths attributed to CV19 but beyond that it’s essential to be very careful when assembling scientific data.

          Media reporting has perhaps helped to confuse politicians in having them select the right path of action.

          =============
          News items;

          ” an 86-year-old man previously confirmed to have tested positive to COVID-19 had died overnight in a Sydney hospital.

          = news of a 90-year-old woman dying on Saturday with esting confirming she had COVID-19, NSW Health said in a statement on Sunday night.

          The other two had been confirmed as a 95-year-old woman and an 82-year-old man.

          A 77-year-old woman became the fifth victim .

          78-year-old Perth man James Kwan was the first Australian to die of COVID-19.

          The sixth to die was an apparently healthy 86 year old man.
          ===================

          All of Australia’s deaths have one thing in common and it is relevant to ask for the government to clarify something.

          It’s been confirmed that all six had CV19 when they died.
          Could the actual primary cause of death be hidden behind a “last straw” effect?

          So, climate change is a hoax and look at it thriving. The emotional and financial turnover is fantastic.

          CV19 may have co-morbidity with government/EEU sponsored Tuberculosis in Italy, who really knows.

          And the WHO doesn’t know squat.

          Perhaps unchecked/forced entry type population growth in Europe has undone decades of careful public health management.

          KK

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            yarpos

            Sad reality is that people between 77 and 90 die. They are at the head of queue. We talk about these deaths as though the alternative is zero deaths and it isnt. I guess we will only know in hindsight how many additional deaths occur during the Corona window. many are going to be slightly time shifted and year on year I wont be surprised if the change against trend is negligible.

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        PeterS

        I like to add though if we don’t tread carefully with regards to how we deal with the economy and the markets, the virus will be the least of our worries. Sure we can do out best to get rid of the disease but that’s of no value if the patient is dead due to other reasons.

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        • #
          Mike Jonas

          While we should never give up our principles, we must also realize that we cannot maintain our principles unless we survive.

          - Henry Kissinger

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      Mike Jonas

      PeterS – I’m more with you on this, but I don’t think Jo is panicking. She has taken a particular line. As with many wicked(ish) problems, different lines can be consistently argued for. The main reason I think that Jo’s line isn’t the best is that I don’t think the virus can be stopped in the way Jo suggests. If you clamp down too hard, then when life returns to something like normal there will be all the new clusters that you were going to get earlier – in other words, you can delay but you can’t prevent. So I think that the policy adopted by most western governemts is very reasonable, namely to accept that the virus will spread but try to keep it within the capacity of the hospital system. Easier said than done, of course, as can be seen from the different results coming from different countries.

      All of the above is purely IMHO, and I don’t pretend to be right or to have better ways of seeing things than others. But it is what I am thinking.

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      PeterS, we’ve been due for a depression type crash for years. We can’t blame the virus for record breaking debt levels, wildly overpriced stocks and houses.

      Killing extra people now isn’t going to save the economy.

      The difference between the Slow Bleed and Crushing the Curve is in our chances of extinguishing the virus so the economy can reinflate. If that’s possible then Crushing the curve is far cheaper.

      I remain baffled as to why no one in power or the media are even discussing the options.

      Remember, two weeks ago they were saying “border closures would be impossible.”

      If our hospitals overflow in two weeks everything I’m suggesting now will be obvious, just as what I said 4 weeks ago became obvious too late. Every day we allow more people to get infected in parties of 99, or on buses, shops, schools and weddings makes even harsher action more likely.

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        yarpos

        How do you know they havent been widely discussed? Why arent privy to those discussions in government just the outcomes. They are having enough trouble explaining simple actions (median IQ 100 problem) so they arent going to talk about analysis.

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          Rolf

          Of course they have. They done the calculation many times. How many will die. What is the price per corpse, We need a cleanup of the economy anyway, We have too many elderly, Our pension funds are way too small, We lack funds for health care, Our roads and infra stucture. You can go on. Bet they are using really good programmable calculators. But we will never see all of it. If they had only one priority, save our citizens, they had only one option. Go early and do exactly what Jo say. So they have to have something else in their calculations. You can choose or add whatever, it’s sick anyway !

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        PeterS

        I’m not sure where you got the idea I’m blaming the virus on the debt situation. As I have said several times the overpriced markets were sensitive to any big world-wide event. The virus pandemic happen to be the pin that pricked the bubble. If it wasn’t it it would have been something else. Killing the economy won’t save lives. A balance must be achieved saving lives and saving the economy. Too much focus on saving lives and letting the economy crash and burn will cause many more deaths that what the virus would cause.

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          Sceptical Sam

          If it hadn’t been the Coronavirus it would have been the oil price (which started its slide from US$68.90 on 6 January 2020) that spooked the equity markets.

          Failing that, some other black swan would have provided the stimulus to bring the market back to more fundamental value.

          The market was overpriced on all indicators, and well outside the medium and long-term trend lines. The technicals had been screaming “correction coming” since July of last year.

          The crash in the markets is not the cause of any recession. The cause of any recession has to do with the shut-down of industry due to the imperative of infection control sustained over a very long period.

          We need to avoid conflating unrelated things.

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      RickWill

      PeterS stated:

      Confidence must be restored otherwise the public will continue to panic, businesses will foreclose everywhere and governments will default as their tax revenues dry up and government pensions and the like stop in spite of their so called guarantees.

      This is a silly statement. The government can spend/give as much as needed to keep necessary supply chains open. In fact they can mobilise the army to assist in supply of essentials, face masks being a recent example.

      Apart from freezers, I expect demand for most imported manufactured goods have fallen off a cliff. That means Australia will most likely have a positive current account if anyone cares to look; iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, continues to nudge a little higher for reasons I can only speculate on. Hence the government can supply money however they like providing they avoid pushing the economy into price inflation. This event is highly deflationary in itself so may need massive injection from the government. RBA rate at 0.25%. Basically just preserving capital.

      Fundamentally the world becomes a true socialist state for the period required to control the virus. Anyone price gouging will be treated as anti-social. Banks will not foreclose on people in financial stress due to CV-19 circumstances. They would be viewed in the same light as price gougers if they did.

      The supermarkets are a good example of being cool under pressure; nominating a time for seniors and disabled to shop under less stressful circumstances; offering selected QANTAS staff jobs at their stores for packing shelves and front counter operations; televising advertisements asking shoppers to be patient about stock-outs.

      It is not confidence but co-operation that it needed, cool heads and helping each other. The one thing that does not matter is balancing the financial system on a monthly basis. As long as it stays in motion so our system of payment can be maintained then that achieves its essential function. The challenge there is to sort out what needs support and what does not. That presents a challenge for government services. Landlords evicting restaurant owners because they cannot pay now, will make it tougher for themselves in recovery. They would be better just declaring a moratorium as the will be able to get a moratorium on mortgage payments if they have one.

      Jo has been ahead of any other commentator on this issue. If you go back 6 weeks, this is playing out as she predicted. If Trump had been reading this blog he would have been better informed than listening to any of his advisers. Australia’s chief medical officer appears dim.

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        PeterS

        I you think restoring confidence is silly then you are alone in your thinking.

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          RickWill

          The silly part is government defaulting. It cannot default on money it supplies. It just keeps supplying as much as it needs. It is a book entry; in reality a few electrons in some computer storage system.

          I put co-operation a long way ahead of confidence in these circumstances. Confidence will not be on display until the light at the end of the CV-19 tunnel becomes a glimmer. To get requires co-operation. Certainly not hoarding toilet paper.

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            PeterS

            Yeah and all we have to do is join hands and sing the Europa song. If we want something really done that will improve things we all should stop voting for either major party. Then they will sit up and take notice. Won’t happen though as we all know most voters don’t give a damn or haven’t a clue about what’s happening right under their noses. When the public finally loses all confidence in governments all hell breaks loose and it’s everyone for themselves. Society breaks down and the result is you know what.

            01

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      truth

      Confidence was already low before this and before the fires.

      How could small business have confidence to hire and expand when told we are ‘transitioning’ to the world’s most unreliable 100% weather-dependent intermittent electricity system…totally dependent ultimately on batteries that would in turn be dependent on the weather because they must be charged by wind and solar?

      How could anyone be confident to spend..build etc when our government has succumbed to insane mass hysteria and is selling us out to international Socialists…when our children are terrified by what they’re taught at school…when we can see only loss in our future…loss of sovereignty..loss of lifestyle…of all we’ve worked for…all that our parents worked for…loss of our country’s prosperity as the only country on earth that will be forced to struggle forever to survive without baseload power while all of our competitors will have baseload power in nuclear /huge hydro or access to it forever.

      Now we’re even more worried about the future because the shutdown to prevent infection of the young and healthy who…authorities continually tell us…over and over… will get this virus anyway and not be seriously ill and self-’isolate’ elbow to elbow on Bondi Beach…will probably ensure more deaths after this crisis is long over…when a much-weakened economy can’t afford to provide subsidized lifesaving drugs for other illnesses.

      Who to believe?

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    Peter Fitzroy

    Can not decide if this is a Panglossian or Pollyannaish response to what is shaping as a perfect storm. We did not do what we should have, and now it is too late.

    Can our society survive this without lasting change? I doubt it.
    Can our implementation of capitalism survive without lasting change? I doubt it.

    It is great to say as an individual, “I’ll be OK” but you are also enmeshed in a society and and economic system which clearly us under immense strain (supermarkets, and stock markets as examples)

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      Peter Fitzroy

      Chemical Ali, during the invasion of Iraq, springs to mind
      https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/mohammed-saeed-al-sahaf-quotes

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      Analitik

      If our current implementation of capitalism, with crony parasites sucking off the teat everywhere, is changed back to its more fundamental premise of allowing market forces to direct changes, then that’s a long term good thing.

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        PeterS

        Capitalism has always been the sane. It’s based on boom and bust cycles due to the human greed factor. The alternative is communism/socialism. Take your pick. None are ideal but I rather live in a nation based on capitalism.

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          Analitik

          Distortions to basic capitalism by government interventions (including central bank manipulations of monetary supply and interest rates) and targeted regulations causes extended business cycles, where booms and busts last longer and are larger and more pervasive. The ones who benefit are the elites while the common folk get ripped off on the way up and crushed on the way down.

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            PeterS

            True, it has been distorted of late but the principle foundation is the same. At each every major market crash since the 18th Century the same sorts of people are hurt or benefit from them. Greed is not good.

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              Analitik

              Sorry but I have to disagree. Vested self interest (including greed) is the only reliable motivation for the general population and capitalism works through aligned self interest.

              What is needed is for governments to set AND ENFORCE regulations that are transparent so that the beneficiaries are obvious. If the beneficiaries are deemed unworthy (eg renewables parasites), then the government gets voted out and the regulations are changed to be more equitable (as deemed by the population).

              The key to everything is transparency (especially in the media)

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                PeterS

                So you are favouring socialism. I see. No your ideas will make matters much worse. We already have too much red tape. Adding more will only speed up the collapse of the West.

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              • #

                Analitik is right.

                The only reliable driver of human behaviour is self-interest even though many humans are altruists and gregarious by nature and will sacrifice much for the greater good. The parasites among us will always take advantage of them.

                Self interest is the great strength of capitalism. The governments job is to set up the rules of engagement to minimize the destructive effect of the parasites — that means more transparency, and reducing corruption.

                Once corruption is minimized and competition maximized the government must get out of the way. Red tape always serves parasites.

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                Analitik

                So you are favouring socialism

                I’d love to know the logic behind that conclusion!!!!!!

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              • #
                PeterS

                Jo there is nothing wrong in what you re saying about self-interest, etc. They are all human conditions we all suffer to varying degrees at different times. The point you miss though is governments are also made up of human beings. They too have the same sort of conditions to varying degrees. Sorry, there are no benevolent dictators in this world.

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                PeterS

                Analitik, by definition capitalism is an economic and political system in which a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit, rather than by the state. You propose good ideas to keep a lid on c0rrupt practices by companies. That’s fine and I’m all in favour of such controls provided we can trust the government to enforce them onto everyone in a consistent and proper manner. Therein lies the rub. That’s where I see socialism creeping into the mix in practice, and it’s unavoidable. I just don’t trust governments of any persuasion to conduct their affairs properly. They always have their own self-interest to consider.

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            Graeme No.3

            Analitik:
            We have been running on government interventions for some 70 years, ever since the Neo-Keynesians convinced the politicians (and the public service) that they could control the economy. Every time there has been a problem the politicians (goaded by the Civil Service) has rushed into action.
            The result has been deficits funded by borrowed money, inflation because that will reduce the debt, higher taxes and more public servants. Rinse and Repeat. At some stage the money-go-round had to stop. Perhaps this is an attempt? Negative interest rates will wipe out cash savings and bond markets**, and a deep depression could well make dictatorial government seem useful (it took 60 years before the folly of that was settled). All the politicians are convinced that they can solve the country if only people would do what they’re told.

            **although experience in the EU in the last few years seems to suggest that it uncertain times a small loss every year is acceptable in troubled times. I wonder whether many people bought Government bonds in Germany in 1923? Don’t forget that hyper inflation hit Austria and Hungary before then, and the authorities in Germany should have known what was going to happen. Was it deliberate or merely incompetence? Much like the slow response by our politicians to the pandemic.

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            • #
              RickWill

              At some stage the money-go-round had to stop. Perhaps this is an attempt? Negative interest rates will wipe out cash savings and bond markets**, and a deep depression could well make dictatorial government seem useful (it took 60 years before the folly of that was settled).

              The prospect of near zero interests rates became a post WW2 certainty due to affluence, education of women and effective birth control. Those factors have resulted in dramatic changes to the demographics of affluent nations.

              Most people in affluent nations become net savers around 50 years of age. They continue to work into their 60s or more, accumulating savings. Federal governments have to go into debt to provide those savings. The earning capacity of money drops because there is more supply than demand; more people saving than those wanting to borrow. A Federal Government in good financial shape would have private savings equal to the government debt; both about 25% of GDP in Australia. If the Federal Government does not run deficits, the only way private savings can increase is thru current account surpluses.

              CV-19 appears capable of changing population profiles but would need to gain a lot more momentum. From memory. Italy has the oldest average age of population of the G-20 nations. That could be changed if CV-19 runs through the population.

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                Graeme No.3

                RickWill:

                Yes, but when does the “merry-go-round” end? All very well to expand the money supply to “ensure growth” but what growth? The public service continues to grow (and with it the UNFUNDED retirement benefits). The Federal government (and ALL the States) has been running deficits thinking that inflation will reduce the cost.
                All “emergencies” are met by the same response – spend more and employ more (public servants to ‘control’ the way money is spent) hence more future liabilities.
                The politicians, if they understand, are kicking the can down until after they are gone. When the collapse come there will only be 2 choices – hyperinflation or a deep depression. Choose your poison.

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        Peter Fitzroy

        Well, I’m more along the lines of Libertarianism;

        I would start with the tech giants, if they use my details, then I should be paid. An example is if you look at say, an ad for a car on the internet, you will be bombarded with car ads thereafter. My data was sold to make some company money.

        Next would be loyalty schemes including those bonuses offered in insurance, loans etc. For example if I’m healthier than average, I should be able to eventually achieve a lifetime cover for free say at 67, and therefore not cost the government anything in subsidies.

        After that I would move on recycling – if I provide compost via the green bin, I should be paid. If I provide recyclable (and therefore profitable) material I should be paid (much like the return and earn scheme in NSW).

        I’m sure you all could add to this list – but this is what I mean by change

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          PeterS

          That would require a cashless society. If we are to dream I prefer the Star Trek model where money is no longer used and we all work at jobs we like doing for the benefit of all. It’s a dream too – won’t ever happen in this world because there will always be people with greedy power hungry tendencies.

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          el gordo

          Forget all that small change for now, keep your eye on the ball.

          ‘One hundred billion dollars will be thrown at the economy and interest rates held at record lows for years in a last-ditch effort to keep businesses alive.’ SMH

          In any new world order the Australian branch of the utopian socialist wish to retain libertarian values.

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            Peter Fitzroy

            We shall see, after all there is a limit to even red ink.

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              PeterS

              Yes there is a limit and the pied piper must be paid one day. None of us should look forward to that day but it will happen for certain.

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              RickWill

              There is no limit to “red ink”. Many nations have proven they can make as much money as they like. It is no more than a few little electrons in some computer storage system. In accounting terms, a book entry. If the federal government is silly enough to keep adding zeros to the federal debt to cause inflation in a broad range of essential items then that is when the money supply becomes a problem.

              Right now there is some price pressure on toilet paper and food items that can be stored for long periods. But it appears the main supermarkets are not taking advantage of the situation. They prefer to run out of stock rather than asking everyone to pay more for it. If the situation was to persist for some inexplicable reason then that opens the opportunity for more suppliers to start up. They could turn Tullamarine into a global manufacturing site for toilet paper.

              The current situation is highly deflationary and the Federal Government needs to be supplying money to avoid deep depression. A simple way is to fund banks to enable a moratorium on mortgages for anyone whose employment/income has been impacted by CV-19. That might seem unfair to target it that way but anyone with guaranteed employment in the circumstances should consider themselves blessed and not begrudge the poor sole who cannot be employed because their business is in limbo. It puts the banks in a role of having to make the assessment, which may prove challenging.

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                el gordo

                A deflationary spiral is on the cards and I suspect we’ll see a sharp move back to manufacturing. When the big wet comes later this year we should have confidence that Oz will have a full food bowl for us and potential export.

                The big unknown is the overheated property market in capital cities, any suggestions on where that is heading?

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          Graeme No.3

          What I would like to know is why Amazon bombards me with e-mails about Nintendo games/add-ons etc.
          I have never used Nintendo, have no intention of using same, and have never looked at any e-mail from them about Nintendo.
          Result, I have lost faith in any ability of the Tech Giants to control the world, although they probably still think they can do so.

          Incidentally, when using Google I occasionally enter weird search requests (although never about Nintendo). They may monitor me but they must wonder sometimes.

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      yarpos

      yes its probably the end of life as we know it, unprecedented even

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        PeterS

        Well Greta must be happy with the situation. Airlines being grounded and all that. Perhaps she can now say we are saved. Typical of the extreme left in the West. In fact they are our real enemy, not China.

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    observa

    So what you want to do is starve the productive young to save all the retired old farts like me all over the world?

    That sounds like a really good idea to me except for the fact I have children and grandchildren.

    A vaccine is at least 18 months away before it’s going into arms at any serious rate after the medicos (we’ll need to be careful we don’t kill them with some half baked vaccine in a rush) and in the meantime we’re flattening some curve on a bridge somewhere. It’s like this. You can’t eat money and being plastic now it makes a poor toilet paper and forget about using it as a face mask even if you have some rubber bands lying around and you have to stop believing Gummint can solve all our problems all of the time. I get it that 80% will brush this virus off like they do with a cold but for 20% it gets more serious like the flu and I’m smack bang in that 20% risk cohort that might die with it. But you want to starve the other 80% for some noble cause feelgood? Get real and get back to productive work as some things Gummint simply can’t fix least of all sacrificing the majority for the minority.

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      I am not waiting for the vaccine.

      Get with the game — it’s antivirals, stem cells, RNAi, molecular mimics.

      Biotech in 2020 is so much more than the 1920s vaccine plan. Vaccines are too slow because the testing is so complicated and the risk of getting it wrong so high and hard to detect for months.

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    PeterS

    The panic buying is getting worse. Now bus loads of people are “invading” small towns sucking out all the items they can get their hands on leaving locals empty handed. This is insane and must be stopped with police involved if necessary. Rationing now would be a sensible move IMHO to stop the panic buying in its tracks everywhere and to give stores the time to re-stock their shelves.

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      Dennis

      Minister Peter Dutton spoke about the supermarket raiders yesterday and said that the Federal and State Police are taking action to stop this happening.

      The raiders are well organised groups who are apparently shopping for goods to be exported to Hong Kong and China to fill on line shopping orders.

      I read that this started years ago when former Labor PM Rudd’s daughter and Chinese son in law established a business “Jessica’s Suitcase” based on exporting goods from Australia ordered on line and using Chinese students in Australia to do the shopping for commission. And that there are now other businesses operating near UNSW in Kensington, Sydney, from shops with blacked out windows where people can place orders for export in person or use the on line ordering system.

      On the news last night were images of pallet loads of goods awaiting airfreight to Hong Kong at Sydney Airport.

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        PeterS

        It confirmed my suspicions why our shelves aren’t being stocked up at all in spite of the panic buying. Much of our goods are being shipped to China. We are such mugs. Our APO has been making a lot of money posting various items over the years to China. Time for a wake up call before we end up being another Province of China.

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          Dennis

          Logistics problems with road transport supplying the chains of supermarkets trying to restock the shelves.

          Demand well exceeding supply chain capacity.

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      observa

      Oh I see we get the new Jobseeker payments flowing all over the place plus putting IOUs in the bank accounts of businesses from Qantas to whatever. Only to discover the adept and agile with lots of time on their hands and said IOUs are fighting each other for the real spoils in the supermarkets no doubt with the thought they can onsell (or barter) their surplus at a healthy profit down the line. The scintillating answer to that is now rationing and the goons to enforce it instead of everyone back to work being productive. All we need to complete the rosy picture is to anoint a Fearless Leader for life to command us all with the central planning distribution and lockdown and Utopia here we come. I have already eschewed all impure thoughts should you want a wise and experienced Fearless Leader urgently young people.

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    If everybody stopped going outside to work, for 9 days,, we would all starve to death. Food supply is a vast engine requiring many hands on.

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      PeterS

      SO true. It amazes me to see people suggest we shut down everything and isolate everyone without thinking it through. It could be managed though if we had the right people in control, which we don’t. The armed forces would need to be used to assist in the handing out of food and other essential items from certain distribution points and rationed out to the people in a co-ordinated and controlled fashion. Even if it could be done properly I can imagine there will be lots of looting and the like. Another reason to bring out the armed forces if we are to have a lock down on such a mass scale.

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    • #

      For goodness sake — we can manage two weeks of food with some deliveries. (Probably four!)

      And if people fasted for one week most of the nation would end up healthier. We would reduce rates of Diabetes Type II, lower blood sugar, lose fat from livers and pancreatic tissue. Slow cancer cell growth.

      Fasting induces autophagy, cleans out dysfunctional cells, proteins and mitochondria and triggers an explosion of stem cells regrowth from bone marrow and other sites.

      Takes two months for most people to starve to death.

      We don’t have to arrange a D Day invasion, we just need food deliveries.

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        robert rosicka

        Could manage four weeks maybe more without leaving the property , could be an issue with the toilet tissue though .

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        Bill In Oz

        But Jo that ordinary science based common sense !
        And just not acceptable to the “Conspiracy” folks here
        Trying to confuse, distract and demonise
        Anyone reading your posts.

        :-(

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    observa

    And that’s not fatalism Jo just plain old common sense but you’ll have be experienced enough like me to understand it and I’m not about to believe in neo neo Keynesian money printing just because it’s flavour of the month girl ;)

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      PeterS

      Thanks to repeated Quantitative Easings the Keynesian model, new and old, are now destroyed. We are in uncharted territory. A crash and burn scenario is inevitable but I don’t believe it is happening now, at least I hope not.

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        observa

        Spot the demographics of this pandemic?
        Slipping credits into peoples bank accounts won’t change that but make it worse if they all come to believe in a fool’s paradise at home.

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          PeterS

          We already knew the elderly are more vulnerable especially if they already have some other health issue. The current round of quantitative easing is yet again a stop gap measure. It will very likely work again but I doubt it will work the next time around. We certainly can’t keep doing it forever. The pied piper must be paid one day.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Nice to see some cool headed analysis for once.

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      Analitik

      Discussed in a couple of previous threads – I disagree as I feel Willis heavily discounts the effect of quarantine within the liner during the Diamond Princess saga

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        Environment Skeptic

        Well a country town is a little like an isolated community in the sea of humanity. Usually they are close knit communities. Have we seen any outbreaks in towns other than in entire cities like Wuhan?

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          Environment Skeptic

          A small remote town of say 2000?…anywhere on the globe?…an outbreak of a cluster of cases in a small town??

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            Analitik

            Is 3300 small enough?

            This mass testing revealed that about 3% of residents were infected with the virus, and of these, about half did not show any symptoms, according to ProMarket, the blog of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. After two weeks of a strict lockdown and quarantine of cases, only 0.25% of residents were infected. The town isolated these last few cases and has since reopened

            https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-testing.html

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            Analitik

            I should have included the conclusion as well

            learned is that isolating all positive cases, whether they were sick or not, we were able to reduce transmission by 90 percent,” Andrea Cristani, a professor of microbiology at the University of Padua in Italy who helped carry out the testing, told RFI.

            Given the current shortage of test kits, isolating across the board is the next best thing that we can do

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            Analitik

            Cmon, red thumbers. You can do better than that.
            Here’s some more about Vo Euganeo

            He said countries that have so far failed to take the measures that Italy has adopted should do so as quickly as possible, even though it is hard to face “this bitter reality” but social distancing is the only way to hope to overcome the spread of COVID-19.

            http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200316-the-hard-lessons-of-italy-s-devastating-coronavirus-outbreak

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    Ian1946

    As always, a Pats nails it.

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  • #

    Some might say we have nothing to fear but Roosevelt himself…

    Nah. This should be a good cleansing recession. It will get rid of those pesky small businesses which can never find the time to write a good mission statement, come up with a sound Equal Opportunity policy, design a new logo…let alone do a mass email titled “Important notice regarding COVID-19″. I mean, when the helicopter money gets dumped it won’t flutter down over the Acropolis Caf or Pam’s Sandwiches, will it?

    Don’t worry. Trillions are being invented as we self-isolate. (Actually, they were being invented before too, but never mind.) Each of us will soon have just one decision to make as an individual…

    Would you like fries with that?

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    Rick Kinsman

    Like Jo, I have been advocating closing our borders since day 1 – it’s the only sensible thing to do. In my view our borders should be closed permanently, but that is another matter. My predictions about the spread, and the deadly nature of this pandemic (I even got the jump on that, too) have been poo-poo-ed and dismissed as pessimism. I’ve been proven right in every case, as has Jo Nova.
    My next prediction has already been born out by the mad race for guns in California (and the need for them) and the ram raid on a supermarket in W.A. So, here it is; those unfortunate people who cannot afford to either buy or store food to last the duration, and with families to support, will do whatever it takes to survive. This means they will do whatever it takes to get food and other essentials – meaning they will first attack supermarkets and warehouses, and then they will attack and rob anyone who they think can not resist them. Expect a rash of home invasions, bashings and riots. I can see it coming like it happened yesterday.
    Let’s see if I’m right… again!
    P.S. I also advocated closing W.A.’s borders and airports a few days before a bunch of doctors worked out that it would be a good idea, too.

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    • #

      Are you letting in food shipments? Medical stuff? Toilet paper?

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        TdeF

        We have enough food to feed 3x the population. It is a snow free temperate climate and we can grow much more. Vast numbers of stock.

        We make our own toilet paper, though the Greens want manufacturing stopped.

        There are medical shortages but considerable backup, we hope, although in the last few years some antibiotics have ended up in short supply. Metronidosol/Flagyl for example. The country was out of it not long ago, but amazingly the Veterinarians had plenty.

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          TdeF

          And I suspect that there is a vast oversupply of goods previously sent to China. A spare 30 tons of lobster. Vast quantities of wine. The usual luxuries like Wagyu beef and abalone. I just wish the Chinese would stop paying top money for fresh bat and Phillipine pangolin.

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          PeterS

          Agree. In fact if we had the will we could be the food bowl of the whole world very easily. Instead we are selling off our farms as though Australia is conducting a fire sale. Time to rethink all that and make Australia great again. Less emphasis on the Greens ideology by both major parties to reduce our emissions and more on reality and our very survival as a society. The Greens can go jump.

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            yarpos

            Food bowl of the whole world now? Tassie must be at least the battery of South East Asia!

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              PeterS

              Why not? We have the land and the water. We just don’t manage and harvest it much. No matter it won’t happen for various reasons.

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              • #
                yarpos

                depends on your view of ambition vs ability. I am less convinced about quality land and reliable water even at the Asia scale.

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    • #

      Yeah, I’m like that. Proven right then proven right again.

      I predicted that the fake virus scare would push the very real financial crash from the headlines. And I predicted lots of money-printing and lots of profitable pump ‘n dump while the wallies are fighting over loo rolls.

      I now predict a few trillion more will be plucked from thin air as disproportionate numbers of celebrities will continue to be afflicted with [cough] COVID-19 [cough].

      And remember, people. The infected can be asymptomatic. They may look normal…but the infected move among us. They live! Every second movie and TV series has been warning us. Get with your media!

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      Ian Hill

      From The Last Three Minutes by Paul Davies (1994)

      Chapter 1, DOOMSDAY

      The date: August 21, 2126, Doomsday,
      The place: Earth. Across the planet a despairing population attempts to hide. For billions there is nowhere to go. Some people flee deep underground, desperately seeking out caves and disused mine shafts. or take to the sea in submarines. Others go on the rampage, murderous and uncaring. Most just sit, sullen and bemused, waiting for the end.

      Professor Davies was describing the scene shortly before comet Swift-Tuttle would hit Earth on that date. It paid us a visit in 1993 and early calculations suggested it could collide with Earth in 2126. Revised calculations now have the comet missing us by two weeks. Still a close shave.

      Of interest to me at the time I read the book in 1995 was the prediction of a crime wave where, with nothing to lose a certain section of society would do just that. I agree with Rick and I suspect we haven’t seen anything yet.

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      yarpos

      The mad race for guns in California is more about the nature of populace , many of whom are anti gun right up to the point they need one, and also the long winded process involved in being a first time buyer realtive to other States. I suggest the didnt see much in Texas except an up tick in ammo sales. Back here in the land of the disarmed (or so the septics tell us) I noticed my regular ammo supplier was very light on this week when I dropped in.

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        robert rosicka

        Reload Yarpos , have enough for a zombie apocalypse or a good weekend at the range .

        01

        • #
          yarpos

          I can never justify it. Whenever I try others it usually ends up in misfeeds in a semi auto.

          I use some when its just practice, and nothing matters. I can understand the attraction for rifle shooters, part of the art.

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    soldier

    Has everyone noticed that Covid19 has totally pushed so called “global warming” off the press headlines, TV and radio?

    Maybe a real crisis forces society to ignore the fake crisis after all.

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      PeterS

      I’m hoping during this crisis or at least once the current crisis is over PM Morrison changes his tune and tells all the global warming alarmists and emission reduction advocates to go straight to hell, and embark on a national program to build new coal and nuclear power stations, dams, etc., to make Australia great again.

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        Dennis

        As always the State governments are the decision makers who approve development applications etc., no State support no power station, dam, whatever project approval.

        There was a comment on Sky News last night by former Liberal MP Bronwyn Bishop who is a constitutional law expert, she said that sovereignty lies with the State governments.

        People forget that the Commonwealth of Australia, Federal Government, is the Federation of States representative body. The Federal Senate is know as the State’s House.

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          PeterS

          In that case why have a Federal policy on energy? No you got it backwards. It’s time to have a national policy on energy that overrides the states. It’s a key component of our national security and well being, as well as our economic survival.

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      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      I was wondering if the IPCC has discovered that their COP festivals have become unproductive, and a laughing stock, and have found a way to cancel the next one in Scotland to avoid another non-performing disaster for their agenda??
      Cheers
      Dave B

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      Another Ian

      “An open letter to @GretaThunberg and other assorted climate wackadoodles”

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/19/an-open-letter-to-greta-thunberg-and-other-assorted-climate-wackadoodles/

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      • #

        I suppose they could have also tacked on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ name to that as well.

        And every green party fellow traveller and friend of the dirt should also note what might happen when air travel is curtailed. Don’t think of it as fossil fuels not being burnt, but in jobs lost, mortgages and bills not being paid etc etc etc, even just for the short few Months this will see them all shut down. Airlines going broke, every employee losing their entitlements, shareholders doing all their dough etc etc etc, and the flow on for the multiple thousands in the aircraft manufacturing industry and that flow on as well. The list is quite literally endless, just from the airline shutdown.

        Tony.

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          PeterS

          The insane left don’t care about such realities. All they care about is following some ideology they can replace capitalism with something better without explaining in detail what it is.

          20

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      yarpos

      Covid was caused by global warming, that is already starting.

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    Ross

    This explains in detail what Singapore did and is doing. It is easy to see from this why Singapore is so successful in so many areas.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120433407/why-singapores-coronavirus-response-worked–and-what-we-can-all-learn

    The key point for me is they started planning from when SARS hit. They were not complacent after it had gone –they knew there would another pandemic sometime in the future so they started making plans.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Of course being a small island with limited entry and exits that are easy to control helps a little

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    TdeF

    Very good interactive graph from Visual capitalist. Australia is now the fourth lowest at about 3.5 days for doubling. Islands Japan, Bahrain, Singapore fare better. No surprise there. 10 days for doubling would be fantastic.

    1000x is 2^10. So three days means 1,000x every month. 1, 1000, 1million.

    Ten days means 1,000 every 3 months which also raises the question of extinction of the virus.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Yeap, throw the baby out with the bath water. Makes a lot of sense, NOT! Meanwhile China is stabilising and will be back in business soon while the West might end up committing economic suicide if the advice of some are taken too seriously.

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    John in Cairns

    People need to know that QUININE is already available by helpful doctors script.It can be used to prevent all coronavirus by taking a pill everyday.WE could achieve temporary herd immunity within a week if supplies hold up and the nation has the will.Any thing is a better option than tanking the economy.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Havent seen anything about a prophylactic effect. All the studies/talk has been about treatment so far.

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  • #
    joseph

    It might require that Al Gore tests positive for COVID-19 to get Climate Change back in the headlines . . . . .

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  • #
    el gordo

    Fresh water fish not responsible for spreading Covid-19 in China.

    ‘ … different types of viruses can only infect certain species of hosts over a selected temperature range. For novel coronavirus, it mostly attacks mammals, including humans, that are endothermic or warm-blooded, and the average human body temperature of around 36 degrees Celsius is most favorable for the infection and reproduction of the novel coronavirus. But most freshwater fish cannot survive at this temperature, showing they can’t catch or even transmit the virus.’

    China Daily

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  • #
    cedarhill

    Everyone should read the following article a few times.

    The Author:
    John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

    The article:
    A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
    Link:
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

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  • #
    Another Ian

    “The danger of making #coronavirus decisions without reliable data”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/18/the-danger-of-making-coronavirus-decisions-without-reliable-data/

    Braving the “WUWT spam virus” again

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    • #
      PeterS

      Yes, it’s been my thinking for some time now the current crisis is over-rated by orders of magnitude. Still nothing wrong taking care, such as washing hands. Oh what?! Isn’t that what we should have been doing already since at least Federation? Time for some common sense to come back.

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      Bill In Oz

      My perspective is LOCAL and AUSTRALIAN
      The USA can do what it wants and I do not give a damn !
      The data here in Australia is pretty good in so far as it goes.
      And i notice that Trump after paying attention to the likes of Ionnidies for a while
      Has now ditched that perspective
      And got informed on the modelling based on Italian data from the Imperial College London.
      Dare we remember that the Italians were telling everyone to ignore this crisis ?
      And now many of those officials are in hospital severely ill !

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  • #
    george1st:)

    Aussie and the World needs a test kit that can affirm the virus is not present or carrying in the person tested .
    Then quarantine/isolation would not be required .
    This would halt the economic crisis and reduce the social fears .
    In other words , it is the affected who should be quarantined , not everybody else .

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    • #
      PeterS

      That was suggested by others for a while now. There are 15-minute test kits available but not yet approved here in Australia. Japan is about to sell them. We should go one step more and offer them for free. Throwing a few more billion around won’t make much difference now given the current round of quantitative easing is going nuts.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Peter,

        I think that the name given to that money manipulation practiced by governments which overspend had a purpose.

        Distraction, from reality.

        A more apt expression might be ;

        Quantitative Squeezing or Quantitative Impoverishment.

        It should be acknowledged for what it is; it’s a last resort with unpleasant consequences for the deplorables.

        KK

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        • #
          PeterS

          Yeap I figured that out back in 1987. The West has been partaking in one huge orgy ever since. When the music eventually stops make sure you are already sitting down on a chair.

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    Mark Smith

    By what definition, would you say the country doesn’t have coronavirus cases. I wouldn’t trust China at all. The cases have gone under the radar. If you limit to the few countries that have transparently beaten the corona virus then the restaurant and hotel and airline industries are still going to be toast. Places without cases doesn’t mean anything if they are doing lots of targeted testing.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘I wouldn’t trust China at all.’

      I trust them on this occasion.

      ‘Public health experts warned against premature celebrations after mainland China reported no new domestic Covid-19 infections, warning a second wave could break out any time.

      ‘The National Health Commission said on Thursday that all of the 34 new infections reported the previous day had been imported cases – the first time this has happened since the coronavirus that causes the disease emerged.’

      South China Morning Post

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      Bill In Oz

      There are many countries without the financial capacity to afford testing.
      And even here in Oz our governments are still limiting testing.
      “Unknown unknowns ! ” to quote some one or other !

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    nc

    So how is Trump “slo-mo”?
    He stopped flights from China before anyone else and was called racist. Now most countries barred entry from China now it’s okay, hypocritical much.
    Trump has been fighting a disastrous bureaucracy and is winning. Professional politicians like Clinton, Biden, Bernie have been in government for decades and fixed nothing, they grew the bureaucracy. Trump has only been in three years.
    Trump has now unleased the US industrial might. Get out of the way and watch.

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  • #
    frednk

    At least sites like yours are not pretending it isn’t an issue.

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    DOC

    CNN at midnight had the official talking mouth from Health saying the AntiHIV drugs had been tried
    and found wanting – failed I believe was the term used – very early in the piece. chloroquin is being trialed,
    used in some places on some patients (outside the drug use parameters which is the legal problems, and China
    makes it all which is the other problem to be fixed after this is all over).

    Then there is the really popular US treatment for all problems. We have food shelf problems. The US has Gun shelf problems.
    Around 1953 there was a very popular novel after Russia got the bomb. It was all about US citizens grabbing loads of
    preserved food, going bush with their families armed to the teeth and living underground to survive the coming war and defending
    their patch from other hungry citizens in the meantime. Life hasn’t changed much!

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  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Diamond Princess docks in Sydney: 2 passengers, 1 crew diagnosed.

    Blind Freddie could have seen this coming.

    There are simply no adequate controls to prevent the spread.

    We are going the ‘herd immunity’ path, (1) whether we like it or not ; (2) whether it works or not.

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    • #
      yarpos

      and most disembarked, finally, without infection.

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      • #
        Deplorable Lord Kek

        no. they [300 iirc] were let off without final diagnosis and were NOT told to quarantine.

        one of the passengers flew to tasmania and was diagnosed there.

        completely uncontrolled infection vector.

        completely foreseeable.

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        yarpos

        dont think you recall correctly but never mind carry on

        maybe check Willis Es take on the topic at WUWT

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        • #
          Deplorable Lord Kek

          “don’t think you recall correctly”

          correct: the passengers that disembarked in Sydney the other day were closer to 2000 in number and they traveled all over the country.

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  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    You have it right again Jo.
    But our leaders and our authorities just can’t see though the trees.
    It requires radical thinking, intelligent planning and a fair bit of political nerve.
    Lockdown for 2 or 3 weeks to deny the virus further hosts as much as possible. Re-assess after that time if necessary. Continue with the no entry policy as long as required, after that forced quarantine for all arrivals.
    In a few months we will be better able to cope with the virus and hospitals better prepared, anti viral drugs and quick testing results available.
    GeoffW

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  • #
    Deplorable Lord Kek

    Morrison says crisis will last: “6 months… at least” !!!

    20

    • #
      el gordo

      That is a worst case scenario, we must remain vigilant until winter ends.

      End of season berry picking, a few families casually picking luscious strawberries on a fine Autumn day. A mini bus pulls up and a woman wearing a mask comes in and tells everyone to clear out, she has bought the lot.

      This is very unAustralian and we were gobsmacked that this carpetbagger had the audacity. Anyway, the manager came out and in a quiet laconic way told her she could only have four punnet.

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      Geoffrey Williams

      The crisis will last for at least 6 months.
      We’ll all be sick of Corona virus by then !!
      GeoffW

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    Steve

    I have a friend here in western Victoria who was working at a shop during a long-weekend music event two weeks ago, she was coughed on by a foreign tourist in the shop and now has flu symptoms such as fever, sore throat and cough. She has requested to be tested for Covid-19 but has been refused. Go figure!

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    observa

    Here’s one for you Jo. Young teacher with $35k deposit and solid bank pre-approval for a loan signs up for a modest $330k unit in metro Adelaide subject to finance with said bank naturally whereupon it just gets knocked back because they’re a TRT teacher and not permanent.(despite full time earnings to date). How long can that sort of stuff go on for our productive younger generation? Well you can’t blame the bank thinking maybe they’ll close the schools and look how the borrowers are all lining up for relief like the Gummint is broadcasting and who needs anymore.

    We’re old we get it. It’s been a good life and we’re not dead yet and we’re optimistic it won’t be us but FFS it aint about us anymore stoopids!

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    • #
      yarpos

      More to do with the fallout of the Royal Commission.

      Our daughter has been told she probably wouldnt get the loan she has if she applied again today. Sort of locks her in the here current place , but works as intended as she gets finacially stronger and gains more equity.

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  • #

    Millions of people staying indoors with a stock of pop-tarts and a choice of CNN or FOX for info. No danger of herd immunity there.

    It’ll be herd something, that’s for sure.

    Anyway guys, I’ve ordered in [cough] 33 aprons [cough]. Would hate to run out [cough].

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    TdeF

    And in case it’s news, the Governor of California has ordered everyone to stay home!

    Great.

    10 days should kill it. A virus cannot survive long without fresh hosts.

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    Maptram

    Earth Hour is nearly here again. The link shows 12 things we can do during earth hour. As far as I can see, at least 3 of those, 6, 7 and 11, would increase the risk of the spread of coronavirus.

    https://www.earthhour.org.au/news-blogs/12-things-to-do-during-earth-hour-2020?utm_source=Gemini&utm_medium=native&utm_campaign=me_earth_hour&utm_content=12things_1

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    ren

    When Covid-19 causes severe pneumonia in people over 60, only prayer remains.

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    DonS

    Hi Jo

    Look, I’ve been skeptical about your call for lockdowns and such for the past month or so. I just goes so much against my love of freedom and individual rights. Our chance to stop the spread was lost due to the CCP telling lies to the international community and letting it get away from Wuhan. The next best chance was lost when cases started showing up in South Korea (wonder what’s going on in North Korea?), Iran and Italy and we didn’t stop international travel immediately.

    What’s past is past and can be dealt with later, in the present let’s try what you suggest. However let’s not do it in the half assed way we normally do things in this country. We need to plan properly, set a date, make sure everyone has food and whatever then go in hard. No more of this self isolation silliness where infected people decide to nip off down the shops or for a holiday on Hamilton Island!

    I agree that if we can not tolerate a few weeks of inconvenience then we really should give up and let the Chinese have it all now. We have lived through worse things in the past and if we ever have a military confrontation with Chia in the future, we will have to live through worse.

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    WXcycles

    I don’t know why people have to constantly try to frame events in stereotypes and project a future of goodies and baddies, winners and losers, rich against poor, left against right.

    I don’t care this is a disease which needs controlling and financial matters are not of interest, there are people to manage that sector and they will have to do their best, they are already getting the Rolls Royce bailout treatment. I don’t want to know about that.

    Suggesting quarantine won’t work is also absurd given we know it does work. The only question is how you do it as it’s clear we are going to do it, and sooner is much better than later. I accept you can’t snap your fingers and it’s done, it takes time to coordinate a rapid change in behavior and capacity to survive differently and functionally for a few months. But changes are occurring rapidly as there’s rationing in supermarkets today and electronic communications and payment options are opening up as well.

    Our discussion about this is moot if it is not promoting that to occur more quickly as going slow is to do nothing effective and smart people don’t do ineffective things. As for economic impacts, economy growth is an aid to our life, not the most important thing. Even a shrinking economy of -5 percent per year could sustain us for many years, so that’s not really a problem.

    Strong demand will re-emerge almost immediately this illness ameliorates as will widespread economic opportunities and desire to push back against loss and rebuild. Every time I have seen losses and disruptions what came back was better so it’s not something to hold back from on the economic grounds.

    We need to make sure hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, so what we (quickly) do to quarantine ourselves must produce that result. If we act in a way that does not maintain functioning hospitals throughout we have failed. The quarantine process which produces that outcome is the quarantine we need to implement.

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    WXcycles

    Whatever Germany is doing they’re getting it right.

    15,343 cases
    2 serious
    44 dead
    115 recovered

    2 critical cases out of 15,343? Hard to believe, they seem to have treatment which is effective.

    The only other countries in the top 20 most infected countries getting similar results are (19) Australia – 2 critical, and (20) Canada – 1 critical. Each is close to 900 cases.

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  • #

    I did a summer course in biology at Berkeley, but I never got why viruses are not classified as living organisms.

    Jo’s writing on the coronavirus has summed it up in a few words. They can’t reproduce on their own, since they need someone else’s DNA to do it, and they can’t repair themselves.

    If you just leave them lying around, they disintegrate.

    00