We can hear the angst and confusion — Another “nasty La Nina?”, “Something weird is going on”, “They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave”. Oh no!
These are not the words we’d expect to hear from experts who can 97% predict the climate a century from now. The bad news for the modelers is that the climate on Earth seems to be controlled more by the Pacific Oscillation than anything else and they have no idea what drives that pattern, so they can’t predict it more than a few months ahead, and sometimes not even then. And if they can’t predict the Pacific — they can’t predict anything. The hottest of hot years are El Nino, and the coldest years are La Nina and the greatest modelers the world-has-ever-known still get their barbecue summers wrong. The droughts, the floods and the bushfires follow the swinging surface water of the worlds largest ocean. Whenever they happen, the models say “climate change” but the models never tell us which will hit us this time next year.
So here we are with hints that there might be another La Nina, a third in a row, and Oh-the-disappointment! The modelers thought there would be more El Ninos — oh Queen of Global Heating. Instead, in the last 40 years, La Nina’s seem to be getting more common. The models were wrong.
And this failure is of the Grande Mal kind.
Holy Smoke — the Pacific matters
As William Kinninmonth so incisively pointed out — the oceans are 4 kilometers deep and most of the water is only a few degrees above freezing, even under the tropical Pacific. There is a world of cold down there, and the layer of warm water on top is but a thin skin. If that thin skin of warm water rests undisturbed, the air can heat above. But all it takes is a change in dominant currents, or tradewinds, or some new deep sea magma vent to stir up the ocean and the top layers mix. The gargantuan deep blue blob of 3 kilometer thick salty cold water promptly rises up and sucks the warmth out of the sky.
The insipid weak vapor above is no match for the vast energy sink below.
Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West’s megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.
The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.
“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.
That sound you hear is the long term forecasts snapping:
An Associated Press statistical analysis of winter La Ninas show that they used to happen about 28% of the time from 1950 to 1999, but in the past 25 winters, they’ve been brewing nearly half the time. There’s a small chance that this effect could be random, but if the La Nina sticks around this winter, as forecast, that would push the trend over the statistically significant line, which is key in science, said L’Heureux. Her own analysis shows that La Nina-like conditions are occurring more often in the last 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.
The real problem is this is just one of many things the models get wrong and unlike smaller things, it can’t be just “tuned to fit”:
What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
A third dry year for Eastern America will be bad in so many ways. Imagine how useful it would be to everyone if the climate models actually worked and could have told dam managers, farmers and foresters in 2019 that the next three years would be dry? This would be worth billions, but instead the “science” of climate change is a politically captured corrupt sect that shuns alternate ideas, exiles heretics and ignores the Sun, the Moon, Space Weather, the ball of magma we stand on, and pretends that the only thing that matters is a gas your car makes.
In Germany, praise be to Gaia, it’s Green to knock down a forest that has sat undisturbed for a thousand years to put wind farms in, and then plant saplings in a fake forest somewhere else as a carbon sink.
When will the environmentalists realize they have been taken for a ride by investment bankers and the renewables industry? Let’s help them speed up that “transition”. There’s a Red-pill moment here. File the story of the Reinhardswald, “fairy-tale forest” away for those moments when a teenager turns up to tell you how important it is to save old growth forest. Exactly, you can say… would you like too help stop the latest rapacious attack on rare heritage forest?
Being “Green” is nothing more than a badge people wear to their weekend dinner party.
NoTricksZone has reported on this environmental crime in February 2022 when the access roads started to go in. In the latest newsSwiss NZZ Daily has described it as the absurdity of the German energy transition:
In the fall, the Documenta management planted oaks in the fairytale Reinhardswald near Kassel to save the climate. Now the forest is to give way to wind turbines, which will save the climate even better.
Germany’s last scenic spot to get industrial wind turbines
The area is the largest contiguous forested area in Hessen, virtually uninhabited, undisturbed, and therefore a precious natural area in itself. Its beauty is an entertainment field of outstanding importance [1] in the middle of a landscape that is partly classified as cultural – historical and has the highest value. Even according to Environment Minister Hessian Priska Hinz (Greens), this is one of the most scenic regions in Germany. [2]….
“it’s all being industrially raped, gangbang-style, by crony, greedy bastards under the guise of environmental virtue. It’s a grand swindle that in normal times would have everyone enraged.
Wind park proponents defend the deforestation of one of Europe’s remaining virgin forests by claiming that only sick areas of the forest are being cleared away and that the turbines will “free Germany from the clinging grip of Russian energy imports”….and save our climate for generations to come.
That’ll be eighteen 240-meter-high wind turbines. Hope the birds, deer and wild cats can get some sleep.
Pierre Gosselin notes the extraordinary irony that to keep tourists coming they are literally building an artificial forest in the Brothers Grimm Square:
“While the real, historically grown fairytale forest outside the city is being cut down, artificial substitutes are being created within the city. For example, Kassel’s civic society has been fighting for months over the redesign of the Brothers Grimm Square, which is conceived in the form of a “fairy tale forest” of pine trees and shrubbery – whereby at best a light miniature forest on a traffic island can emerge.”
An Israeli study published on Thursday found that climate change is already causing a “considerable intensification” of winter storms in the Southern Hemisphere to a level not anticipated until 2080.
In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Their discovery was bleak: It became clear that storm intensification over recent decades has already reached levels projected to occur in the year 2080.
Yet again we see true mastery of confirmation bias at work: When the climate models underestimate things it means doom is coming faster. When they overestimate things, it means the equipment is faulty. What would 28 million radiosondes know?
There must be 1,000 permutations of climatoid factors that could be measured across regions of the Earth, but Lo — there has been an intensification of WinterMid-Latitude Storms in the Southern Hemisphere! Not summer storms, spring storms, or Atlantic Storms or Atlantic Tropical Autumn storms, or Pacific Eastern high latitude Westward events (as far as we know) but roll the dice, some of them will turn up snake-eyes too! (Where is my grant?)
As far as I can see, this is a good example of Neolithic tea-reading type science — equivalent to studying the trails of the scribbly-bark beetle and forecasting that the Blinking Star will eat Neptune before the next full moon.
These are short term trends within the noise envelope, but good enough for a Nature paper, and a press release:
What if there was, say, a natural 60 year trend in there? Who would know?
…
I notice in the Supplementary section the captivating graph below. Part A, apparently, is the observed trend, and Part B the modeled trend, which don’t look too similar to me. The caption has the immortal words:“The small black dots indicate regions where two thirdsof the models/reanalysesagree on the sign.” On The Sign! Unless I’m reading that wrongly, they’re excited about the dot points where two out of three models guessed whether the trend was up or down. It’s that bad. In most of the Pacific apparently nearly 70% of models looked at “climate change” and couldn’t even guess the direction right.
Indeed, the models are so wrong in the Pacific, perhaps it’s significant?
Click to enlarge.
Phys-Org gushes like David Attenborough was let loose in “software biology”:
About 30 massive, intricate computer networks serve the scientists who stand at the forefront of climate change research. Each network runs a software program comprised of millions of lines of code. These programs are computational models that combine the myriads of physical, chemical and biological phenomena that together form the climate of our planet.
What is Truth but “millions of lines of code” eh? What could possibly go wrong (apart from things like the G.F.C.)?
We’re there at 2080 already!
In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Their discovery was bleak: It became clear that storm intensification over recent decades has already reached levels projected to occur in the year 2080.
Spot the bias anyone? We studied this part of the world because it showed what we wanted to find?
“We chose to focus on the Southern Hemisphere because the intensification registered there has been stronger than in the Northern Hemisphere,” Chemke says. “We didn’t examine the Northern Hemisphere, but it seems that the intensification of storms in this hemisphere is slower compared to that in the Southern Hemisphere.
If any taxpayer funds were harmed in this report, we want them all back. This is non-stop agitprop:
Chemke, Ming and Yuval’s study has two immediate, considerable implications. First, it shows that notonly climate projections for the coming decades are graver than previous assessments, but it also suggests that human activity might have a greater impact on the Southern Hemisphere than previously estimated. This means that rapid and decisive intervention is required in order to halt the climate damage in this region. Second, a correction of the bias in climate models is in order, so that these can provide a more accurate climate projection in the future.
It’s new low in scientific spin. Modelers don’t usually just lie straight out like this:
Could the climate models be inaccurately predicting other important phenomena? “The models are doing a very good job at forecasting nearly all the parameters,” Chemke says. “We’ve discovered one parameter for which the sensitivity of the models needs to be adjusted. Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice, and summer storm patterns, for example, are all being simulated accurately.”
For what it’s worth, Rei Chemke only finished his BSc in 2012, and his PhD is all “climate science”. It’s more a case of Kool Aid over-exposure for a young guy that has probably never met a skeptic.
No one can explain why the rich nations of the world would want to sign rights away to an unelected, unaudited foreign committee that has failed to do the only job it was meant to do, is clearly in the pocket of China’s communists and wants us to pay them to let them boss us around?
Notably China was not signing up
The good news at the moment is that according to The Epoch Times African nations have put the brakes on and they appear to have derailed the process. We might assume that with backroom deals that might amount to some local sweeteners in Africa or maybe just a better job for the Ambassador. However the backroom deals appear to be failing, and the final form of the amendments has now been delayed to September or even November. The battle isn’t over but we have more time to fight back.
The documents we’re talking about are called the WHO International Health Regulations [IHR] — sometimes also referred to as a Pandemic treaty (though there are other Pandemic Treaties too). The original IHR was made in 2005, and you can read the proposed amendments yourself. The IHR already matters. Unvaccinated Australians were banned from leaving Australia because of “this WHO treaty” for nearly two years, it was listed on the Health Ministry website, though apparently almost no other country did the same. Go Figure? Perhaps Australia and Canada were the only ones stupid enough to write it into laws at home?
Under the proposed amendments, the director-general could declare a public health emergency in any country regardless of whether local officials agree with the declaration.
Tedros also would be authorized to rely on evidence from sources other than those approved by the affected country as the basis of such a declaration.
But the Biden proposals have sparked a growing furor in the United States among critics who contend the amendments would amount to ceding of some portion of American sovereignty to WHO in the event of another pandemic like the one that has killed more one million Americans and in excess of six million people worldwide.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), the first member of Congress to comment critically on the amendments, told The Epoch Times on May 26 that, “Of course the amendments should be withdrawn, but the bigger issue is how we got to this point in the first place. Why is this administration apparently willing to cede any authority to an international body, particularly the WHO?”
This is not just about pandemics — any “health emergency” will do:
The WHO document was spectacularly vague in all the right places. We don’t even need a moment of monkeypox — this is a “health emergency” treaty and health can be whatever you want. The WHO defines health as anything less than 100% happy, bouncing, bubbly people:
Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.
We all know that Climate Change is an “emergency”, trans-rights is an “emergency”, as are the lack of safe spaces for children oppressed by their parents. It’s only a hop, step and a jump to demand a clean atmosphere is a human right as is having a self-driving electric car with full tracking, carbon credits, and the remote cut-off “safety” circuit too. For your own health!
The amendments will completely remove all current restrictions on the activities of the WHO Director General and will empower him to declare a suspicion of a “potential” global health emergency in any nation without their cooperation or agreement. Within 48 hours, the Director General will be empowered on the mere suspicion of an ill-defined emergency, and be able to publish his recommendations and regulations to marshal all the agencies of the United Nations and other groups outside the UN to put pressure on dissident nations. Other nations feel empowered by WHO to place suggested restrictions on the targeted nation. The World Bank which is an extreme supporter of empowering WHO, could also put pressure on nations.
The Director General, Tedros, of the WHO will be the sole arbitrator of many health issues and activities, including declaring health emergencies relating to physical health, mental health, environmental health, and social health. This means that if the WHO and Tedros decide that guns are producing an “epidemic” of violence, then gun confiscation can be ordered. Or, if overpopulation is declared to be the cause of food shortages, then WHO could order population control actions, including abortions and euthanasia.
Don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be stopped and it’s not worth trying:
We have heard from Congressional sources that there is a firestorm of concern and attention in Congressional offices about the World Health Organization (WHO) amendments proposed by the U.S. Biden Administration. This concern has been ignited by the phone calls, articles, columns, and media coverage about the WHO power grab. Every citizen who is signing petitions and calling their federal Congressional representatives and Senators is having an enormous impact on U.S. Congress. Our initial report, “Biden Handing Over U.S. Sovereignty to WHO,” has gone viral in Congress and throughout the world.
For reference, here are the 20 nations, plus the European Union, listed by the U.S. as already supporting the amendments before they were even discussed:
Albania, Australia, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, India, Jamaica, Japan, Monaco, Montenegro, Norway, Peru, Republic of Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Uruguay, Member States of the European Union (EU) (which means another 27 states).
If only we all had the same kind of democratic protection as Africa. Start contacting your representatives asking them why we needed to rely on African politicians instead of our own ones. Write letters to the editors. Share the news with friends.
Baseload futures for electricity on the Australian market used to sell for $60 a megawatt hour last year. Now prices are rising by $30 in a single day. Paul McArdle at WattClarity calls it “staggering”. Prices rose from $260/MWh at the end of Tuesday 24th May to $291.20/MWh at the end of Wednesday 25th May 2022.
…. Click to enlarge
It’s a bloodbath. It appears that no one wants to provide a guarantee they can sell electricity in Quarter 3 for much less than an astonishing, heartbreaking $290/MWh. Unless this situation resolves, the forward prices will soon flow through to the retail prices. At the moment, the number crunchers don’t seem to think it will be fixed soon.
So far, with several coal turbines out of action, and one turbine recently closing (Liddell) it appears to be a network on the brink, with no spare capacity anymore. The situation on the Australian grid isn’t improving. After record April prices, May will also bring in medals of the wrong kind. Current prices of wholesale electricity on the spot market are averaging a blistering $200 — $300 per megawatt every day for all the mainland states of Australia on the national grid.
This was determined — not by a free market — but by the AER (Australian Energy Regulator). Because we need a government agency to dictate that sort of thing. It’s not like we could let people pay a network fee and then choose to do deals with, say, the cheapest generator they can find.
A radio journalist was at the Jan 6 riots and thought the FBI would want his detailed footage showing men smashing windows and trying to incite others to join in. The odd actors dress strangely, act differently, have radio’s strapped on, and push people into the Capitol Building at times, and Bobby Powell has 29 minutes of high definition video, on the terrace, up close, but the FBI don’t want to find out who those people are. They are not sitting in jail, like others accused of Jan 6 crimes. Their photos are not even posted on the most-wanted lists.
Journalist Bobby Powell has spent 16 months trying to get anyone to pay attention in officialdom. He posted the video on Twitter of the US Capitol Police and within five minutes his Twitter account was permanently suspended. Google demonetized his Youtube account. Facebook took down his live streams, and now Paypal has shut his donation account. He spoke to some of biggest names in broadcast news but no one was interested in “a story about alleged government agents attacking the capitol”. Now he has sold his own home to keep going.
The one person who is interested is Brad Geyer, the lawyer defending many of the people accused of Jan 6 crimes. He has already filed a motion on May 6th to identify and get as many as 80 suspicious actors called up as material witnesses. Bobby Powell’s video adds to that list.
What’s worse, that the FBI appear to have set up an entrapment operation to distract the world from hearing evidence about election corruption, or that the FBI, the CIA, all the Media, Twitter, Paypal, Youtube and the US Capitol Police are so keen to cover it up?
Bobby Powell thought someone would be interested in his video evidence showing two “suspicious actors” taking part in events on the east side of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
He was in for the surprise of his life.
He wants to see those men charged with the destruction of government property and assault.
Almost no one, it seems, wants to listen.
Powell has learned that his video isn’t welcome in many places; some people view it as a threat. In Michigan, he said a politician friend suggested he take a six-figure bribe to keep quiet. When he flatly refused, he says his life was threatened.
He also thought photos of the men would eventually appear among the 1,558 individuals on the FBI’s Jan. 6 most-wanted page. That never happened, nor have they been arrested or charged.
“These are two men that are pulling windows out of the Capitol and pushing people inside the doors,” Powell told The Epoch Times. “Okay, so why isn’t the FBI interested? That is the key question.”
“I’ve been giving speeches in New York, North Carolina, Florida, for the January 6 defendants,” Powell said. “And you know, I flat out come out and say it:
“The FBI led the insurrection of the Capitol.
“I have proof, and, you know, the FBI didn’t want to hear anything about it.”
After one man smashed the window, the Capitol Police came and arrested him, but for some reason, with thousands of energized protesters present, on a momentous day, they didn’t leave a single man there to guard the open window.
Protestors are heard calling out “it’s a trap”. It was that obvious…
Weston Energy, which provides gas to more than 400 companies and government agencies, ceased trading with immediate effect on Monday, creating uncertainty for major manufacturers with 7 per cent of the east coast’s commercial and industrial market forced to find a new supplier.
The company said it could no longer finance cash flow requirements of its trading portfolio “on a timely basis” with prices rising over 180 per cent since April, and almost three times higher than at the start of the year.
These are blistering rises in costs:
With spot gas prices up to four times higher than normal levels and wholesale electricity prices in NSW on track to finish the June quarter twice as high as the previous record, Mr Willox called on the Albanese government to respond.
It’s a cult.
Presumably at this point geniuses will suggest we need even more solar power — thus creating an even greater demand for expensive gas until we get a battery the size of Tasmania, or the sun goes Supernova and runs 24 hours a day.
Better yet — the inner city Teal voters could offer to run off their solar panels and donate their gas to the poor?
Will any of the Labor Party, Professors and Energy Experts even think of boosting gas production and exploration, and vaporizing the red tape? Probably not. But will they miss the chance to redevelop the cheap brown coal of La Trobe Valley and take the pressure off gas use and energy prices. We know they will…
Whatever anyone thinks of Trump, he’s the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt for whom people in any part of the country will stand outside in falling snow for hours to see and hear him. No one who saw the immense ovation given Trump at the Kentucky Derby of Churchill Downs earlier in May by 150,000 people across all socio-economic groups could doubt the force of his political popularity. All but three of the approximately 70 candidates he endorsed have been elected.
Even the Great Replacement may have run out of voting power
For some reason Democrats assumed that immigrants would always vote for infinite continuing immigration after they arrive (thus creating exactly the conditions they had escaped from).
The policy area where they seem most satisfied with the administration is immigration, where all will concede, except the surrealistically implausible Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, that the administration is getting on admirably in allowing anyone who wishes to enter the country to do so. The presumed underlying ambitions for this policy of national suicide are to admit enough permanently grateful Democratic voters to produce an almost one-party system, and to reduce whites to a minority of Americans, to facilitate the seizure and redistribution of their wealth to others. This goal is only specifically espoused by the peppiest of the new members of the 2020 Democratic coalition, but it’s hard to find any other plausible motive to impute to the supporters of the current administration policy of a completely open southern border. The latest polls indicating that only 26 percent of Hispanic Americans now approve of the Biden administration indicates this catastrophic policy is backfiring.
Don’t miss those signs of success —
We regularly see the collapse in defeat of key supporting individuals and organizations in the anti-Trump movement: the unmasking of Black Lives Matter as an allegedly massive tax cheat operation that effortlessly swindled witless American big businessmen out of hundreds of millions of shareholders’ dollars, the collapse in the ratings of CNN and MSNBC, the resigning of CNN’s Jeff Zucker, the folding of Chris Wallace’s CNN streaming service after it attracted only a few thousand viewers in all of America and after only three weeks, the unmasking of Twitter and specifically of the president’s Twitter account as largely frauds, and the apparent loss of control of Twitter to ex-Democrat Elon Musk. Hillary Clinton has been finally revealed as approving the mighty Trump–Russia smear job and the suborning and politicization of senior ranks of the FBI and CIA: the dirtiest political trick in American history.
Stuart Kirk, head of “responsible investing” for HSBC let rip at the doommongers of finance with a speech called “Why investors need not worry about climate risk”. He was speaking at A Moral Money Europe Summit, held by the Financial Times and is clearly fed up with listening to hyperbole and being told to analyze and worry about trivial long term future events. “Last night Target fell 25% — twentyfive!” … but I’m being told to worry about something coming 20 – 30 years down the track.” Other speakers were unceremoniously dispatched. He complained climate risk has become so hyperbolic no one knows how to outdo it. “Sharon [a speaker from Deloittes] said “we’re not going to survive!” But no one even looked up and ran from the room.”
Dangerously (for him) he also explained how the central banker models bury massive GDP and interest rate shocks in their economic forecasts of climate risk, otherwise they can’t generate bad news and headlines. Apparently, it’s all in the fine print that nobody mentions. They’re sounding more and more like climate models all the time.
Stuart Kirk, head of “responsible investing” for HSBC, gave a presentation at a Financial Times “Live Moral Money Summit Europe” a few days ago in which he shredded the climatista claim about financial climate risk.
HSBC has suspended a senior banker after he referred to climate crisis warnings as “unsubstantiated” and “shrill” during a conference speech that has since been denounced by the lender’s chief executive.
Kirk’s presentation controversially included slides that said “Unsubstantiated, shrill, partisan, self-serving, apocalyptic warnings are ALWAYS wrong”, while referring to comments made by officials at the UN and Bank of England, who have tried to raise the alarm over global heating.
“Human beings have been fantastic at adapting to change, adapting to climate emergencies, and we will continue to do so,” Kirk told attenders at the Financial Times’ Moral Money conference on Thursday. “Who cares if Miami is six metres underwater in 100 years? Amsterdam has been six metres underwater for ages and that’s a really nice place.”
Stuart Kirk, who has been HSBC’s head of responsible investing since last July, will remain suspended until the bank completes an internal investigation into the matter.
He will remain suspended until other economists get the message about what they are not allowed to say.
Well worth watching: This is a man who believes the science is right but nothing about the economics or market response makes sense. Luckily he doesn’t talk about science, just the things he knows. Amazing how much damage one man can do in a mere 16 minutes.
The odd quandry — the markets are completely ignoring climate risk
Strange things happen: the more people say the world is going to end, the higher risk asset prices go. Kirk counted the time the news media mentioned the “climate catastrophe” and noticed that the “worse” it was, the higher the MSCI index rose. (The MSCI is the market cap weighted stock market index of 1,546 companies around the world.)
“The Sharons and Mark Carneys need to explain why the prices keep rising.”
The more the news was “catastrophic” the more investors invested in the MSCI.
Jo Nova, however, thinks it’s no coincidence. Inflating the money supply pumps our stocks at the same time as our fantasy ideologies.
Fiat currency bubbles inflate assets as well as dumb ideas. We couldn’t afford to be this stupid in times of austerity.
The fine print of the Central Banker Models of Doom
Stuart Kirk also unpacked the central bankers climate risk stress test models and found surprises in the fine print which I don’t recall hearing about before. (He wishes they would pay less attention to climate risk, and more attention to inflation and growth instead.)
Climate change itself isn’t going to be a problem, he says, the only potential risk is from a major policy shock. So the models forecast a whopping change like a $200 carbon tax, out of the blue, …put that in the model, “Wham” — but even that wasn’t enough. …
He begs people to take the Bank of England and Dutch forecasts and “go right to the back and get into the fine print”. They will put in a whopping great policy shock in to their models, but then you look at the sensitivities of what they have done. To make things look really bad the first thing they do, it seems, is trash GDP growth with huge unrealistic negatives ….minus one, minus three, minus two, changes so big they have never happened in our lifetimes… But that’s not the end of it. To make things look worse in these economic forecasts they have to put in a huge interest rate shock as well. And they never talk about it. It’s very easy to make a bank look sick, he says, if you destroy their fixed income base.
“Even with a carbon tax, even hitting growth, they couldn’t make climate risk move the needle so they had to get their clever little wonks in the back room, and put a gigantic interest rate shock through their models, in order to make headlines. That is not reported very much either. “
Despite this, humans, he says, are spectacularly good at managing change, which is true. That (below) is the long run change of the S&P 500. It’s the last hundred years of world wars, depressions, global financial crisis’, and pandemics — but nothing really changes the trends of the S&P 500 he argues, and climate change won’t either.
A century of S&P growth continues…
He seems quite optimistic about climate change, though after being suspended, he may not be so optimistic about our financial management, freedom of speech or that problems with central bankers will be fixed in our lifetimes.
We wish him the best of luck. Welcome to the dark side Stuart Kirk.
The only way Climate elections are won is by keeping it a secret or telling lies. Today we wake up to find out it was a climate election. Who knew?
There was not one word, barely, about climate change in the public square in Australia the last six weeks, yet today suddenly it was “a Green-slide” and a climate election post hoc. But the whole reason the Greeny-Teals did well was because no one talked about climate change.
No one asked how expensive it might be to alter the planet’s weather a hundred years from now? Should we fund hospitals now, or slow cyclones in 2100, ya’reckon?
Whenever it was a climate election in the last 12 years, the skeptical side won.
And the more skeptical they were, the bigger the win was. Tony Abbott won a landslide 90 seats by crushing the Climate Gods. It was a Climate Election and the voters said “No”. To win in 2010 Julia Gillard had to lie “there will be no Carbon Tax”, and do 17 days of wheeling and dealing to barely scrape through. In 2016 Turnbull was barely a skeptic and barely won — losing 14 seats in the process. In 2019 Morrison pulled off the Miracle Win by asking Bill Shorten hard questions about the costs of climate action, which Bill called dumb and a “charlatan’s argument”. That election was called a Climate Election they bragged, and believers were shocked to lose. But this time, there was no policy debate. There was no “let them eat cake” moment. No out-of-touch Bob Brown tour of the coal zones of Queensland. The climate bomb ticked quietly and no one said “boo”. No one, at least that the media couldn’t ignore. Vale! Craig Kelly.
The only climate battles were strategic quiet shots in the inner city Teal Seats between the Gucci wives and the Liberals who said “me too”. None of this played out in public and won the Liberals a single vote in battler-land.
Thus the Liberals ran chicken down the left lane on the freeway — in the same direction as the climate bully bandwagon — because they thought that the media wouldn’t hit them as hard, and it was true — but that didn’t help at all. It’s in the hate-filled fantasy rants of ideology when the winning “Deplorable” moments occur. The smug, lefty zeal looks ugly to the public, but it was never exposed. The punters didn’t get reminded of the elitist disdain for their electricity bills. Extremists didn’t glue themselves to footpaths or dance naked in the street shrieking. This was not an ugly, vitriolic election; it was a nothing campaign. But that just left a pinless vacuum the green fantasy balloon grew to fill.
The whole climate facade is built on feel-good branding and fashion, and the Libs just joined the advertising — as Matt Canavan says – we effectively legitimized the green agenda when we signed up for Net Zero.
Matt Canavan is a gem.
The Nationals though, in the partyroom that signed up to NetZero didn’t deserve to keep their seats. And if the media interviewed the minor parties in the country, they probably wouldn’t have.
We’re in an Information War. Shore up your lines of communication. Find a way!
If the Liberals stop trying to pander to the wealthy Woke electorates and focus on what most Australians want they can reinvent themselves to speak for mainstream Australia by the next election.
The dismal election result for the Liberals and Nationals in Australia may yet set them free. By shifting to the left on issues like Climate Change the Liberals were hobbled. They tried to be Labor -lite, but then couldn’t point out the sheer stupidity of trying to change the weather. Net Zero was a good goal they said, and so the voters voted for people who would do more of it sooner. By adopting Labor-Green ideas and just trying to be better managers of bad programs they lost their mojo. There were no battles on principles in this election, just personalities.
The Right have been bullied into submission — afraid of being called climate deniers, racists, sexist or anti-vaxxer, they fought for nothing much. And so the voters voted for nothing much — splitting every which way. Astonishingly a new government will be formed that nearly 70% of Australians didn’t vote for. The Labor Party won with the lowest primary vote ever recorded in Australian history.
The great realignment of politics bit the Liberals
Waleed Aly, surprisingly, captured it better than anyone, pointing out that voters in wealthy electorates shifted left, while those in less wealthy seats moved right. The Liberals lost the traditional well heeled blue-ribbon seats to the renewables industry candidates in the Teal Party (the Sneaky Greens). But climate change is a fashion contest, and not only does it make no sense, but by definition, the sensible-option never wins on the cat-walk. Once one half of politics gave up fighting the intrinsic silliness of it, and stopped talking hard numbers, the only contest left was the fashionable one.
And popping the fashion bubble may yet even win those wealthy seats back. When everyone else is trying to outdo the Emperor, there’s nothing like pointing out the Emperor wears no clothes.
So much better than winning a pointless contest is to speak the truth and destroy the contest.
The loss of the Woke part of the party would be a blessing in disguise
Australian voters are fracturing into different party groups because the major parties are not serving their original bases. The Labor-Green Party was the party of the workers but has become the paired-party of the rich and fashionable, and the welfare dependent. The Liberal-National parties were still trying to win the inner city blue-ribbon seats while also appealing to the suburbs, small business and rural areas. But that was an impossible deal. Something had to give.
If the Liberal Party can regroup against political correctness, they could storm back in just as Tony Abbott did. If they don’t, the minor parties on the Right will fill that space and do it for them.
I’m gearing up for the battle ahead. The bank balance is on the rocks though.
The only Party that is rising fast is the Anti-Party
The Majors and the media ignored the biggest protests in decades, but all those voters are out there somewhere…
The system is broken and more and more people know it. Both major parties are facing very low primary votes in Australia. Fully 29% of voters are wandering around in the political wilderness looking for another option — a record in Australian politics. But just imagine how big that number of minor party voters would be if the news outlets served up more than the same-old two-party-dichotomy? At the moment the nightly news ignores every minor party unless they can mock them, or lord forbid, the journalists themselves want to vote for them — like the Teal-Green-Independents?
The only time a minor party gets interviewed is after the election and if they win the Preferences lottery.
According to an election-eve Newspoll, commissioned by The Weekend Australian, Labor would be positioned to form majority government if the results are replicated at the polling booths on Saturday.
It would confirm Mr Albanese as the first modern day leader from the Labor Left to win office from Opposition.
But it would also mark a schism in Australian politics amid a flight to independents and minor parties with a record 29 per cent of voters claiming they intended to vote for anyone other than the Coalition or Labor.
Combined, the level of support for both major parties would mark a record low heading into an election.
For many minor parties the only advertising they can afford is to get their name onto the voting slip as a one issue party.
Voters in WA should know that Cam Tinley set up and ran the No Mandatory Vaccination Party in the WA State Election last year and did quite well even though this was before a single mandatory vaccination order even existed in WA. But when he tried to register for this federal election, he claims he did everything right, and met all the deadlines, but the Australian Electoral Commission failed to tick all the boxes they were supposed to check, and ran the clock out — thus preventing him from registering the party. If that’s what happened, it doesn’t seem legal to me. His name is on the ticket as “Unaffiliated” or Group P on the Senate form with Tricia Ayre. I don’t know what his other policies are, but at least we know where he stands on vaccination.
With both major parties being two sides of the same UniParty, and the media afraid to ask real questions, this election campaign has been a vacuum — more like a personality quiz in Dolly magazine than a National Debate. The Conservative government, which hasn’t conserved much, looks likely to lose to the Makeover Man from the Labor Party who wears designer black shirts and fancy rims because a marketing expert told him to. A group of sneaky-pseudo-Greens called the Teal Independents are pretending to be central, but are only running against the Coalition, not against Labor, showing exactly which side of politics they’re on. They’re funded by a billionaires son, wealthy CEO’s and people that profit from renewables money — so much so that even The World Socialist Website sees them as “bogus” corporate raiders, seeking profits and called them a “reactionary fraud”. That bad.
The best hope now is that freedom loving candidates and parties will win the balance of power in the Senate. Yes, we long for Government gridlock. Australians can still put The Majors Last. Don’t waste those preferences!
It’s not too late to volunteer to help any small party of your choice, for example to hand out how-to-vote cards at booths. Go on — meet your fellow Australians. It’s fun, it’s just a couple of hours, and it might make a lot of difference to the small parties. People walking into booths might never have thought about how to make the most of their vote. Suggestions here:
Tips for foreigners watching this spectacle:TheLiberals here are the major “free market” conservatives (in theory) and they partner with the Nationals(in the country seats) to form The Coalition which is in government today, but maybe not tomorrow. The Labor — Green Parties are the Opposition and are exactly what you think they are — useless for workers and forests. In Australia the blue parties are still blue (conservative) and the socialist reds are still red. We don’t understand how people in the US let the reds steal the blue color. But yes, our blue liberals are more likely to be Trump fans. Weird eh?
The Liberals cannot be trusted to control Australia without adult supervision. But to replace them with an ALP/Green/ABC/Teal government would be a disaster. So voters must ensure that Liberals can form the next government, providing they have mature overseers.
Steve Hunter
Voters must ensure there are new sensible people holding the balance of power in Australian parliaments. We need people who understand that:
The “Man-made Climate Crisis” is a fraud. Natural cycles control the climate.
“Net Zero Emissions” is a destructive, impossible green dream.
Hydrogen, Pumped Hydro and Big Batteries are all net-consumers of energy. They can store energy and recycle it, but that round-robin process is always a net consumer of energy.
Carbon Capture and Storage and “Clean Coal” are con games designed to consume more hydro-carbon energy for no public or environmental benefit. They would enrich big businesses.
Reliable affordable electricity for industry and homes is best supplied by coal, gas, hydro or nuclear power.
While the world scrambles to get coal supplies, Australian bureaucrats have delayed coal exploration and development for decades. And we can mine and export uranium, but not use it. These follies must stop.
All electricity generators should be treated equally – no special taxes or subsidies. They should be obliged to provide their own backup power and their own connections to the grid.
Electric cars may suit rich city folk (who forget they are powered mainly by coal). But battery-electric engines are an impossible dream for dozers, tractors, harvesters, road trains, aeroplanes and bulk carriers. The supply chains that deliver daily food, fuel and services to the cities rely totally on hydrocarbon energy (diesel, petrol and gas).
To moderate the effects of droughts and floods we need MORE DAMS NOW.
We need a regulatory firestorm to clear the legislative litter of green and red tape.
We have far too many complicated tax laws. We need to slash and simplify taxes everywhere, starting with abolition of payroll tax (the tax on jobs) and capital gains tax (the tax on capital improvements).
Most politicians since the Whitlam era have helped to create a huge national debt. Unless we reverse this, our currency will be destroyed, opening the door to digital money, electronic rationing and “The Great Green Reset”.
We must abolish federal/state/local duplication, leaving more control with State and Local authorities and with families.
The federal government should focus on defence, foreign affairs, quarantine and maintenance of free trade between states.
We need a “back-to-basics” in public education, with less green indoctrination.
Australia has a shortage of labour, and a surplus of people receiving welfare. Welfare for able-bodied recipients with no dependants should be reduced.
It is time to VOTE FOR REAL CHANGE. However, thoughtless rejection of the Lib/NP government will produce a government which is far worse – a Labor Government dependent on Greens and extreme Greens. We must use the power of preferential voting to break Liberal/Labor/Green Power.
Libs and ALP are both on the nose. It looks unlikely that either of them will hold a majority of seats. But if voters are not disciplined in how they vote, a bunch of deep greens posing as independents will grab enough seats to hold the balance of power. They will naturally support a radical Green/ALP coalition, and Australia will leap out of the frying pan into the fire.
However, with thoughtful and disciplined behaviour at the ballot box (for BOTH Senate and House of Reps) we can stop this green calamity with the help of sensible new politicians.
Our first election job – identify the worst candidates and parties. Preference them last on both House of Reps and Senate ballot papers when you vote.
The most dangerous candidates in this election are The Sneaky Greens – they pose as “independents” but are being supported by climate crazy millionaires and, if elected, will re-appear in their deep green uniforms. Unless you know better, put all “independents”, Teal Greens, Climate 200 and Get-Up supported candidates last.
Just above the Sneaky Greens and “Independents” put the declared Greens and their ALP allies. Then select all Liberals above all of the Green/ALP alliance and “Independents”.
Then focus on who should get your top votes. Choose your numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 etc candidates from the Freedom-Friendly-Minor-Parties (FFMP) giving preference to whomever you like from the parties below:
Whatever anyone thinks of Trump, he’s the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt for whom people in any part of the country will stand outside in falling snow for hours to see and hear him. No one who saw the immense ovation given Trump at the Kentucky Derby of Churchill Downs earlier in May by 150,000 people across all socio-economic groups could doubt the force of his political popularity. All but three of the approximately 70 candidates 
Voters in WA should know that 
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