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Transition Going Swimmingly: Futures Prices next quarter jump $30MWh in a single day. Power Shock coming.

Baseload futures for electricity on the Australian market used to sell for $60 a megawatt hour last year. Now prices are rising by $30 in a single day.  Paul McArdle at WattClarity calls it “staggering”. Prices rose from $260/MWh at the end of Tuesday 24th May to $291.20/MWh at the end of Wednesday 25th May 2022.

Futures Prices, Electricity, Australian, NEM.

…. Click to enlarge

It’s a bloodbath.  It appears that no one wants to provide a guarantee they can sell electricity in Quarter 3 for much less than an astonishing, heartbreaking $290/MWh. Unless this situation resolves, the forward prices will soon flow through to the retail prices. At the moment, the number crunchers don’t seem to think it will be fixed soon.

So far, with several coal turbines out of action, and one turbine recently closing (Liddell) it appears to be a network on the brink, with no spare capacity anymore. The situation on the Australian grid isn’t improving. After record April prices, May will also bring in medals of the wrong kind. Current prices of wholesale electricity on the spot market are averaging a blistering $200 — $300  per megawatt every day for all the mainland states of Australia on the national grid.

Meanwhile, household retail prices are already set to go up around 10% from the start of July

This was determined — not by a free market — but by the AER (Australian Energy Regulator). Because we need a government agency to dictate that sort of thing. It’s not like we could let people pay a network fee and then choose to do deals with, say, the cheapest generator they can find.

Perry Williams at The Australian thinks a 10% rise is a shock, but if things don’t improve on the Australian Grid now that the Makeover Man is in charge it’s hard to see why retail prices won’t double, which is already happening to people on the smaller retail deals which didn’t have longer term hedging.

Power shock: electricity bills surge for standing offers

The default market offer will rise by 8.5 per cent to 18.3 per cent for NSW residential consumers. The figures take into account Australia’s official forecast inflation rate of 5.5 per cent for 2021-22.

Customers in southeast Queensland would see annual increases of 11.3 per cent to 12.6 per cent, while users in South Australia were in line for 7.2 per cent to 9.5 per cent hikes, the Australian Energy Regulator said.

Small business customers in NSW face a 10 per cent to 19.7 per cent lift, a $690 to $1146 annual bill jump, with southeast Queensland up 12.8 per cent or $705 and South Australia edging up 5.7 per cent or $459 higher.

 

9.3 out of 10 based on 80 ratings

295 comments to Transition Going Swimmingly: Futures Prices next quarter jump $30MWh in a single day. Power Shock coming.

  • #
    PeterS

    Clearly our politicians on both sides of the fence (if there is one) don’t care that continually increasing power prices play an important part of our economic survival. I suppose they will follow the Californian model where they already have sky-rocketing prices. Their new budget is to earmark $8 billion over five years to increase the state’s system reliability and provide relief to consumers as electricity rates rise, whatever that means, while they retire 6,000 MW of nuclear and gas-fired energy production. Saying that the West has gone insane on power generation policies is just stating the obvious. I wish they hurry up and crash our grids so people can wake up and stop voting for the net zero emissions lovers. Perhaps then the insane power generation policies can be dumped along with them.
    California To Spend $5.2 Billion On Electricity Reserve To Avoid Blackouts

    632

    • #
      David Maddison

      politicians on both sides of the fence

      No fence.

      Green Labor and Liberals are just two factions of the one uniparty, Liberals being the faction that is very slightly less destructive than Green Labor.

      If they were different parties, as an example, you’d think one of them would have disengaged us from the economy-destroying Paris Accords. Instead, they are both fully and fanatically committed to them.

      731

      • #
        Ian

        “If they were different parties, as an example, you’d think one of them would have disengaged us from the economy-destroying Paris Accords.”

        I wonder. You may recall that in 2019 Tony Abbott recommended that Australia remain in the Paris Agreement.

        `This is what he said in March 2019:

        “We had an emissions obsession that needed to be broken and changed. I am now confident that we can meet our Paris targets without significant damage to our economy.

        As you may recall Mr Abbott signed the deal when he was still prime minister in 2015, promising Australia would cut carbon emissions by 26 percent by the year 2030, off 2005 levels.

        So the initial impetus for Australia to cut emissions was not from Labor or the Greens but the Liberal the party that signed on in 2015 and until Saturday has been in government ever since. As a consequence although you write “If they were different parties, as an example, you’d think one of them would have disengaged us from the economy destroying Paris Accord”no other party not Labor or the Greens or anyone other party has been in a position to disengage Australia from the Agreement.

        The blame for Australia’s emissions actions is sheeted firmly and unequivocally home to the incompetent Liberal Party and its inept leader who got us into it in the first place and still appears to believe we should remain.

        339

        • #
          William

          You may recall Ian, that Abbott equivocated over the Paris Agreement, at times supporting it (re-election against Steggall) and most other times wanting our withdrawal. However the first thing Turnbull did as PM was to ratify it – something Abbott hadn’t done and was very unlikely to do.

          “Former prime minister Tony Abbott has urged Australia to follow the lead of US president Donald Trump and withdraw from the Paris agreement, saying he would never have signed up if he knew the United States would eventually pull out.

          Mr Abbott signed the deal when he was still prime minister in 2015, promising Australia would cut carbon emissions by 26 percent by the year 2030, off 2005 levels.

          But now Mr Abbott says the agreement, which has been signed by almost every country in the world, will damage the Coalition’s chances at the next election.

          “Our 2015 target, after all, was set on the basis that the agreement would be ‘applicable to all … parties’. Absent America, my government would not have signed up to the Paris treaty, certainly not with the current target,” he said.

          It is the ratification of the agreement that bound Australia so please thank Turnbull for that mess.

          560

        • #
          Rollo

          Abbot also made it clear that Australia would only decrease emissions if all major industrialised countries were on the same program. Turnbull’s NEG would have made emission reduction mandatory.

          410

        • #
          David Maddison

          Video:

          “Behind the Left’s push to remove Tony Abbott”

          https://youtu.be/NG0WcjGHkEw

          140

          • #
            skeptocynic

            Great link, thanks David.

            50

            • #
              David Maddison

              Thanks skeptocynic.

              Best to make a note of it as YouTube has made it hard to find by searching

              50

              • #
                Ian

                Interesting how Lord Monckton pressaged Abbott’s political demise in 2015 which as you know was initiated byTurnbull but more significantly approved by a majority of his colleagues. His backflip in March of 2019 saying Australia should stay with Paris was, of course, in the hope of beating Zali Steggall but again he lost the vote and was removed from parliament by the voters of Warringah a vote which, incidentally, Steggall has just increased by a further 6%. So no fluke there.

                I’ve never really thought about how almost everyone that posts here are both fervent climate sceptics and fanatical Leftist haters but seem incapable of putting together the facts that the Right wing LNP as the sole governing body for the last 9 years has had full control over Australia’s push for the 26-28% reduction in emission levels. It is apparent from that far from it being a Leftist plot it was initiated by a Right Wing politician and promoted constantly by a right wing government. Why is that dichotomy never mentioned in the many diatribes again AGW?

                219

              • #
                b.nice

                Poor Ian is so [Snip]AD still hasn’t figured out for most of that time, the Libs have NOT been the Libs, but left-lite.

                So no , there has not been a conservative right wing government for many years.

                They went left while deliberately undermining a legitimate conservative leader by kow-towing to the woke destructive leftist agendas.

                Its been downhill ever since.

                And as you well know, AGW is just a leftist scam. There is no real underlying science.

                260

              • #
                b.nice

                ps.. I suggest you re-read William’s post at #1.1.1.1, and at least try to comprehend a little bit…

                80

              • #
                Ian

                “They went left while deliberately undermining a legitimate conservative leader by kow-towing to the woke destructive leftist agendas.”

                This “legitimate conservative leader you admire so much is the self same leader that went to Paris signed the deal when he was still prime minister in 2015, promising Australia would cut carbon emissions by 26 percent by the year 2030, off 2005 levels. Seems he was happy enough.
                He then said Australia should pullout after he’d been overthrown as PM but then in March 2019 said Australia should stay with the Agreement a decision he still hasn’t revoked

                I don’t know about legitimate conservative leader but Abbott was certainly the most vacillating PM Australia has ever had at least until Morrison.

                And as for the party dismissing him as PM you may recall he was also dismissed by the voters in 2019. And please don’t try that hoary old chestnut GetUp got him out as Zali Steggall with no backing increased her vote by 6%.

                07

              • #
                b.nice

                Poor little man has a demented case of Abbott, Abbott, Abbott.

                Are you scared of raw onions, too?

                Abbott got hounded by the far-left ABC from the second he took office.

                All that same sex marriage nonsense that never saw a peep during the Gil-lard Rudd period.

                And don’t pretend that Steggall wasn’t backed by the Teal Climate200 Simon Holmes-a-cort funding…. ie NOT independent…

                You only make yourself look even more unaware.

                91

              • #
                Broadie

                Ian

                Nice plan to construct a straw man than give it a good whack.

                almost everyone that posts here are both fervent climate sceptics and fanatical Leftist haters but seem incapable of putting together the facts that the Right wing LNP as the sole governing body for the last 9 years has had full control over Australia’s push for the 26-28% reduction in emission levels.

                Most posts I see from Jo, her guests and the blogerrati are open discussions generally with some reference from which you may form your own conclusions. If you receive a lot of red ticks, you may need to go back and think about what you have said instead of imagining a grand conspiracy.

                30

              • #
                el+gordo

                ‘ … approved by a majority of his colleagues.’

                The moderate faction have now been routed.

                40

              • #

                Ian has cake, eats cake, sells cake:

                I’ve never really thought about how almost everyone that posts here are both fervent climate sceptics and fanatical Leftist haters but seem incapable of putting together the facts that the Right wing LNP as the sole governing body for the last 9 years has had full control over Australia’s push for the 26-28% reduction in emission levels. It is apparent from that far from it being a Leftist plot it was initiated by a Right Wing politician and promoted constantly by a right wing government. Why is that dichotomy never mentioned in the many diatribes again AGW?

                Note the incongruity: Ian usually accuses the right of doing nothing, except when it suits to point out the exact opposite and pretend the Right approves of climate because they’ve done a lot.

                “Why is the dictomy never mentioned here”? Because it is and all the time. What else do I write about but the way the good people of the Right are bullied and cajoled by the Left into doing things they don’t believe in, and how the billions of dollars of vested interests, bankers, financiers, renewable industrialists, plus Russia, China, the Greens, the UN, and the WEF all benefit either financially or by increasing their power base/status and reason for existence or gain through sabotaging adversaries (Eg China).

                20

          • #
            Dennis

            And note that even before the Opposition Coalition parties elect their leaders for Opposition Leader and Deputy Leader positions Union controlled Labor has commenced with character assassination against the two most likely to be chosen.

            Same old tactic of relentless negativity used against Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison which unfortunately convinces many Coalition supporters who help spread the smearing.

            11

        • #
          b.nice

          Yes, I think we can all agree that TA should not have even considered the Paris farce.

          But he put many under-riders into that consideration, and realised later that Australia should have withdrawn.

          It was then the leftists Turnbull and Morrison that put Australia into the massive electricity supply problems we now face..

          and the clownshow that is Lab?green will only compound the problems at a rapidly increasing pace.

          They certainly have no real plans to try and fix the problems.

          They want Australian society to suffer and get to the verge of collapse….

          Its all part of the marxist/leftist one-world-government WEF push, governed by unelected self-appointed bureaucrats with zero compassion for the everyday person.

          110

          • #
            Ian

            “But he put many under-riders into that consideration, and realised later that Australia should have withdrawn.”

            And then stated publicly in March 2019 that Australia should stay with Paris.

            Now why was that do you think? He’d got rid of Turnbull so that was his main ambition fulfilled. His announcement didn’t equivocate but was quite definite saying:

            “I am now confident that we can meet our Paris targets without significant damage to our economy.”

            To repeat just to ensure that even you get the message

            I am now confident that we can meet our Paris targets without significant damage to our economy.”

            So your adored Conservative leader categorically stated he agreed with the loathed “Leftists.” How difficult that must be for you to swallow. Providing you understand it of course

            15

            • #
              el+gordo

              Tony had his flaws, as did Turnbull and Morrison, but under Dutton the Liberals should be able to resurrect the Party.

              The two parties are not far removed on climate change, the green ooze is everywhere and the precautionary principle in place. Essentially the Opposition members need to be educated on the alternative arguments of climate change science.

              21

              • #
                Kalm Keith

                It was never about the science, it was always about the Money.

                41

              • #
                el+gordo

                A lot of free enterprise monies now flowing into the renewable industry, hard to turn the juggernaut around. Still, I’m confident the Coalition will throw caution to the wind on climate change, if they have any ambition to win government.

                10

              • #
                Ian

                Tony Abbott was a brilliant leader of the Opposition but a very poor PM. His first budget sealed his fate when he broke most of his pre-election promises . Dutton is said to be a lot nicer than he comes over so it will be interesting to see if that is true. However looking to the Conservatives for rescue may be misguided and both Parma and Frydenberg will certainly be missed. There are a lot of Moderates in the party who disagree strongly with the Conservative right. I note the hard right Conservative Eric Abetz was moved down to third spot in his party’s Senate ti the Liberals are now cket which suggests that the Liberals are realising that Conservatism may not be the way to go

                15

              • #
                b.nice

                As long as the Libs pretend they can lean to the left, ie moderates, they will not recover their base voters.

                If you want leftism and wokeness.. vote Lab/Green/Teal.

                There is not room on the left of center for three parties, and the Libs need to realise that, no matter what the leftist sycophants and apologists try to say.

                Josh Frydenburg pushed “Net Zero” as a Lib….. Lost his seat.

                Sharma, also a moderate and climate tragic….. Lost his seat.

                Neither will be missed if the Liberal Party wants to resurrect itself.

                70

            • #
              b.nice

              Your Abbott, Abbott, Abbott syndrome is showing through again.

              “without significant damage to our economy.”

              Yes, he didn’t realise just how damaging the AGW agenda really was.. until he had been dumped.

              ““Former prime minister Tony Abbott has urged Australia to follow the lead of US president Donald Trump and withdraw from the Paris agreement, saying he would never have signed up if he knew the United States would eventually pull out.

              Mr Abbott signed the deal when he was still prime minister in 2015, promising Australia would cut carbon emissions by 26 percent by the year 2030, off 2005 levels.

              But now Mr Abbott says the agreement, which has been signed by almost every country in the world, will damage the Coalition’s chances at the next election.

              “Our 2015 target, after all, was set on the basis that the agreement would be ‘applicable to all … parties’.”

              Under-riders.. what don’t you comprehend !

              Might add, that Australia was already well on the way to meeting that commitment under TA plans, which didn’t include the destruction of reliable electricity supplies.

              But that all got destroyed when Turnbull and his leftist cronies started following the AGW “destroy-the-country” agendas. increasing the totally unnecessary CO2 cuts to totally unrealistic amounts.

              And the clownshow that is Lab/green will only compound the problems at a rapidly increasing pace.

              They certainly have no real plans to try and fix the energy supply problems, they are too incompetent and brain-washed to realise what needs fixing.

              30

              • #
                Ian

                “Yes, he didn’t realise just how damaging the AGW agenda really was.. until he had been dumped.”

                Get off the grass. Abbott changed his mind and supported the Paris Agreement in March 2019 some four years after he had been dumped. Do you really believe it took him, a Rhodes Scholar, four years to realise the bleedin’ obvious?

                The real reason was, of course, a ploy to beat Zali Steggall a ploy that failed ignominiously but Abbott did in fact state Australia should stay with the Paris Agreement. To the best of my knowledge a statement he hasn’t reversed as yet.

                And do you think it possible we can stop this infantile abuse for which I am as guilty as you or more so if you would prefer? I really would like to discuss opposing views without the attendant taunts and backbiting

                25

              • #
                b.nice

                You really have AAAS badly don’t you.

                I’m not going to repeat, because comprehension seems beyond you

                Except that last part

                Might add, that Australia was already well on the way to meeting that commitment under TA plans, which didn’t include the destruction of reliable electricity supplies.

                But that all got destroyed when Turnbull and his leftist cronies started following the AGW “destroy-the-country” agendas. increasing the totally unnecessary CO2 cuts to totally unrealistic amounts.

                And the clownshow that is Lab/green will only compound the problems at a rapidly increasing pace.

                They certainly have no real plans to try and fix the energy supply problems, they are too incompetent and brain-washed to realise what needs fixing.

                52

        • #
          MP

          Abbott?
          https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-malcolm-turnbull-signs-australia-up-to-kyoto-ii-20151201-glbylm
          https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/ratification-of-the-paris-climate-agreement
          https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/australia-signs-paris-agreement-on-climate-change

          Today Australia joined over 150 countries in signing the Paris Agreement, securing a global agreement to combat climate change.

          Minister Hunt signed the Paris Agreement in New York. We will begin our process to ratify the Agreement immediately, and will seek to ratify this year.

          20

          • #
            b.nice

            TA “”I certainly didn’t anticipate, as prime minister, how the aspirational targets we agreed to at Paris would, in different hands, become binding commitments,””

            A big difference, that some people don’t seem to comprehend…

            Oddly, we find this on April 23, 2016 from Malcolm Turnbull’s own page.

            “Today Australia joined over 150 countries in signing the Paris Agreement, securing a global agreement to combat climate change.

            Minister Hunt signed the Paris Agreement in New York. We will begin our process to ratify the Agreement immediately, and will seek to ratify this year.”

            This was after TA was knifed.

            Also, on Wiki’s “Abbott Government” site, there is no mention of Tony signing the Paris agreement

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbott_government

            but do find this

            “In December 2015, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop represented Australia in negotiations for the Treaty, and signed on Australia’s behalf.”

            20

            • #
              MP

              Turnbull and Bishop flew to Paris to sign us up, but first they detoured through New York and signed us up for UN Agenda 2030.
              Abbott was knifed a couple of months before the Paris date due to his stand, Morrison was the main instigator in unseating Abbott and installing Turnbull, he got the numbers togeather. Turnbull was installed by Morrison to keep the throne warm untill he could knife him.

              I have no idea why people blame Abbott for the Paris, not as if its hard to find the facts. Also in 2015 the Quarantine act was amended to allow medical marshal law.

              Read Turnbulls book.

              50

        • #
          truth

          IAN:

          It’s just ridiculous to blame Abbott for the energy debacle when…as you must know…he was under enormous pressure from every direction and sector…including from the Turnbull and WEF Quislings in his own party like Hunt, Bishop etal and later Morrison who delivered his WetLeft faction to Turnbull to make the numbers for the coup.

          Abbott tried everything he could including his attempt to audit BoM but was scuttled by LW Libs whose focus was on kow towing to Labor and Europe and ratifying ….which they knew Abbott would not do….and they knew Australians had comprehensively voted against.

          This is a massive hit on Australia by the Left..with the Liberals’crime against Australia being their weakness vs the Labor-lite Gore-inspired Photios faction led by Morrison and Alex Hawke and their deceit and cat and mouse games with conservatives on HELE coal while allowing Labor to join with European Socialists/Marxists to blackmail them with the threat of tariffs on Australian goods to Europe unless they signed up to NetZero.

          It’s absolutely the Left…GreenLabor and Turnbull Left…and the oligarchs’ TEALS who will be responsible for Australia’s demise as a modern industrialized nation if the Labor policy that’s prevailed since 2015 is not turned around soon.

          Labor could not have won this election if the Australian community…enough of them…. had not been comprehensively brainwashed and whipped into mass hysteria by two words..climate change…and the fashionable aura they could get for themselves by just uttering them…that and the fact that Labor…whichever party is in power …has just about completed the total destruction of the education system in Australia.

          61

      • #

        They will destroy small business.
        And secretly they will celebrate.
        Just another step towards a dictatorship.

        160

    • #
      Robdel

      I agree completely. Let us have a genuine energy crisis with the lights going out and the fridges ceasing to function,etc. The sooner this occurs the faster will the populace wake up from their coma.

      240

  • #

    A surprise gift for the new Government. Should be fun watching them mishandle it. Sorry for the beleaguered ratepayers but this could not have come at a better time.

    582

    • #
      b.nice

      Not really a surprise.. Any person paying attention could see this coming.

      Yes, I suspect the mishandling will be “Three Stooges” slap-stick worthy…. except for the back pocket !

      370

      • #
        yarpos

        I think David is right, this will be a surprise to many in politics. There answer will be more “renewables” to keep that downward pressure on costs going, as the fool of an Energy Minister keeps saying in VIC. Don’t worry its only “transitory”

        361

        • #
          b.nice

          “Don’t worry its only “transitory””

          For the next 50+ years.

          Surely someone will wake up before then !!

          290

        • #
          RicDre

          “Don’t worry its only ‘transitory’”

          That sounds like Mr. Biden’s description of inflation here in the US. Persistent is probably a better adjective to describe it.

          120

        • #
          Gerry, England

          More unreliables is what the morons in the UK claim is the solution to the energy crisis that was created by the unreliables. The minister Kwasi Modo spouts all the usual nonsense of more windmills, more sun temples, hydrogen, batteries and carbon capture. I used to think being stupid was no handicap to becoming a minister, but these days especially with the lying oaf Johnson in charge, I think it is a an essential requirement.

          50

        • #

          The thing is that more renewables will not fix the issue at all, which we all know, but the Australian public are about to get a very rude awakening.

          I truely hope that this crisis which is looming is not wasted. The ALP will have two choices,
          1) Self destruct the power grid by pouring in more useless renewables that will just make it worse and power prices will just keep skyrocketing. And the economy will literally collapse as the idiots fail to realise ruinables are a complete disaster.

          2) Actually have to govern for the people of Australia and admit that we are rushing to disaster and stop Liddells shutdown, and stop the destruction of the grid via ruinables.

          Many here will say they will go for 1). And initially they might. But the pain will get so bad with businesses going under, households losing food due to fridges out, supply chain issues as food factories simply cannot process and supply food, that they will have to revert to 2). The question is just how bad they will let things get first.

          I am in PNG at present, and whilst the grid is shaky here everybody is prepared for it. In Australia nobody is prepared and has any idea how bad it will get if the rush to ruinables continues.

          60

        • #
          truth

          That’s what they’re calling for already Yarpos.

          The CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce has blamed LNP for the coming price hikes…and called for LNP to now be bipartisan with Labor in their Powering Australia ‘plan’…which he says is the ‘right pathway to net zero’…says building more renewables is undoubtedly the way to cheaper electricity.

          Not one question was asked of him that might have done Australia a favor and shown his extreme naivety before it’s too late.

          You’d think the dismantling of Australia and our entire industrial base might be an important enough issue to require some proof and evidence of the premise …at the very least some questioning by the MSM, of the policymakers and big stakeholders orchestrating the catastrophe and discussion re how they expected it was all going to go down and exactly how Australia would survive it…would you not?

          30

    • #
      Thomas A

      There’ll still be a lot of pain to go through yet. This new government, the teals, the ABC and I think most of the population are committed to renewables. They can’t back away now or they’ll have egg on their collective faces. The Labor Party will be borrowing billions to ensure this transition works. Blackouts will be blamed on fossil fuels. Taxes will be increased on anything and everyone even slightly related to fossil fuels as a punishment for not leading the transition. Good luck. I hope the Nationals and conservative independents have their talking points prepared. I also hope they’re prepared to cut the chain with the Liberals and let that party go down with the Australian economy.

      340

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Absolutely brilliant David: well done.

      00

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    At least this new ‘Green Energy’ government will be eating what they have sown with people really getting pissed.

    320

    • #
      James Murphy

      Sadly, I disagree. I believe the left-leaning media (i.e. the majority of Australian media) will pull out all the stops to ensure all problems are blamed on fossil fuel companies and the Liberals.
      A lot of people will be happy to be given a culprit to be angry at while their main priorities in life revolve around trying to pay ever increasing bills, not wondering or caring if what they have been told is actually true.

      151

      • #
        el+gordo

        The Murdocracy will fight back against mass delusion and in parliament I expect the Opposition to make headlines which the MSM cannot ignore.

        In this way we’ll expose the madness and assign it to history.

        63

        • #
          Adellad

          The Murdoch press is moving wokewards at speeds thought to be impossible in physics.

          60

          • #
            el+gordo

            They pride themselves on being fair and balanced, that won’t change. Sky is their best vehicle, reminds me of the original Bulletin.

            11

      • #
        truth

        I agree.

        The current cohort of Australians are not predisposed to analyse anything if they see the rich and fashionable and the uber-rich hipsters are selling the fairytale and the derelict LW MSM journalists are telling them to buy it.

        They seem to be able to see two cold wet Summers… to be followed by a cold wet Winter and a third wet Summer forecast… and not even stop for a minute to wonder how Australia can survive unscathed when before long Labor will have us 100% dependent on weather-dependent intermittents and their weather-dependent props..and the 60-80% baseload coal and gas power that’s keeping the lights on every day now…will have become a distant dream .

        20

  • #
    David Maddison

    What, exactly, does it take to make anyone in government understand that “green” energy is unreliable and expensive?

    It’s very simple.

    The more “green” unreliables that are installed, the higher the electricity cost.

    There is not a single example of any country, anywhere where the installation of more wind, solar and Big Battery subsidy-harvesting farms has resulted in lower costs.

    It’s always: more unreliables = higher costs, ALWAYS!

    Of course, it’s a mistake to think that the Leftist promoters and purveyors of unreliables actually care about higher costs.

    They WANT higher costs because it represents more profits for the Elites, who are unaffected by higher energy costs. Plus this is part of the AGENDA to reduce the standard of living of the West which they regard as “unsustainable” (except for the Elites), as they keep telling us.

    In the future, you will be cold and miserable, eat insects instead of meat, be traced and tracked in all your activities, will be complusorily injected, will have to walk everywhere and you will own nothing, but you will be happy! They are talking about yiur future at Davos, right now.

    650

    • #
      RicDre

      “What, exactly, does it take to make anyone in government understand that ‘green’ energy is unreliable and expensive?”

      They understand that very well, it is after all, a feature of their plan, not a bug.

      In the US, Mr. Obama explained it this way: “Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket, regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad, because I’m capping greenhouse gases,”

      Or as Mr. Biden recently said about rising gasoline prices in the US “… And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels …”

      The pain is all part of the plan. When its over, we may or may not be stronger but we most certainly will be poorer.

      390

    • #

      “It’s very simple.”

      Not really. The problem is that many governments have been tricked by the IPCC/UNFCCC and green activists into thinking that not going green is an existential threat to the planet. In the feeble minds of those running governments, an existential threat to the countries of the free world (i.e. the developed world) is a small price to pay to save the planet.

      The only way to fix this is for the MSM and big data to widely disseminate the scientific truth, rather than the alarmist lies they push today. Many have shown in many ways how wrong the IPCC is about the influence of CO2 emissions, but nobody has been successful at elevating this into the public consciousness since the ignorant acceptance by the political left of the self serving ‘consensus’ the IPCC fabricated around the reports it generates.

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      • #
        RicDre

        “The problem is that many governments have been tricked by the IPCC/UNFCCC and green activists …”

        I find it hard to believe that the governments are being tricked into anything. It seems much more likely to me that the government elites see this as an opportunity to gain power and/or wealth.

        431

        • #

          I agree that the motivation of the IPCC/UNFCCC is to gain power over the developed world to the benefit of the developing world led by China, but those in the developed worlds governments who blindly accept the nonsense coming from the UN have definitely been fooled into thinking a major sacrifice is necessary, as such an extreme and expensive sacrifice, necessary or not, harms their own political viability. They’re also afraid to buck the trend to avoid themselves or their country being perceived as a pariah, much like America was during the Trump administration for that very reason.

          I don’t think most government leaders are leveraging the climate change lie to gain power and control in general, but are doing so specifically to accomplish what they’ve been tricked into thinking is necessary to save the planet, but of course, to gain enough control to force extreme and unnecessary sacrifices, freedom gets in the way, and that’s what the UN wants to do away with and it’s starting to disappear.

          Too many people have been emotionally manipulated by a corrupted media that breathlessly pushes the IPCC’s lies, as they are nudged, potentially even as an unintended consequence, into becoming useful idiots for the UN’s globalist agenda. I suspect that if the media, politicians and voters knew they were being manipulated for the purpose of throttling the economies of the developed world so the developing world can ‘catch up’, and doing so for no valid reason, scientific or otherwise, the push for Net Zero would stop dead in its tracks.

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        • #
          truth

          I think Labor is certainly motivated not by climate change but by the power the figment gives to the Left….the opportunity to achieve their HolyGrail…Global Socialism /Marxism…which several UNIPCC officials have told us quite clearly is the real objective of the hoax of the millennium…and Rudd’s ‘formerly’-Communist guru also spelt it out to Rudd and Labor when he described how it would be…

          ‘much pain, unprecedented’

          ‘ massive dislocation and deprivation’,

          ‘the social and political consequences will be volatile and unprecedented. The battle to lower use of fossil fuel will cause social conflict and economic disruption. ‘

          …the cost of energy will need to be enormous’

          ‘ we are talking about far, far more than what we pay at the petrol station, and in our electricity bills. Rather we are talking about the cost of everything that is produced and is transported using energy and that includes, well, just about everything, starting with food, clothing and shelter. ‘

          …’a genuine groundswell of support is needed to make the sacrifices acceptable.’

          ‘ Herein lies the chance for the revival of political parties like the Labor Party. ‘

          It’s about nothing else but Global Socialism/Communism IMO and if you read China’s propaganda sites and their online Joint Statement detailing their unbreakable pact with Russia, it’s quite clear that China intends to use it to dominate the world and have CCP values prevail over the whole world via its domination of th UN and other world orgs.

          It could not be more sinister IMO.

          40

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        Unfortunately the media, even the Australian, sensor comments that try to explain the truth about wind and solar power being not only unreliable but the reason that costs are escalating.

        40

    • #
      Phil

      Don’t forget the more you pay the more Gst is paid

      80

    • #
      Stuart

      they have already started to blame the increase in electricity bills on higher prices for coal and gas.

      60

  • #
    Erasmus

    Perry Williams has been a climate alarmist at The Australian for ages. His wayward take on renewables was part of my reasoning for discontinuing my subscription. He and all other media mugs who have cheered climate change on for years must be held in large part responsible for affecting political judgements of politicians and sections of the electorate. It’s a scam that is about to explode, as this and previous articles have outlined.

    451

    • #
      Pauly

      These people have spent the best part of a decade haranguing the LNP government for only spending $3 billion dollars a year on renewable subsidies. Of course, individual states have also collectively chipped in another $3 billion each year. And “subsidies” is a much nicer sounding word that “taxes”, even though every single dollar comes from Australian electricity consumers.

      So I wonder how much higher these “subsidies” will need to go to enable our new government’s audacious plans? Did anyone catch this during their election campaign? Where is their plan, and how much will it cost? The one thing we know is that there are plenty of businesses out there ready to take all of this guilt-free government largesse. And they are being pushed along by ESG regulators, as well as multi-millionaire shareholders and owners with delusions of saving the planet.

      But expect truth and transparency to take a back seat when things start to come off the rails. Did anyone else notice that the new government has been noticeably quiet on establishing a federal ICC?

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    It wasn’t that long ago, here in New South Wales, that the State Government was responsible for supplying electricity.

    Then the libl incumbents noticed that the workas in their employ were being overdemanding in the fight for conditions and pay and vowed to fix this problem by privatising the whole industry.

    Without going into the nuts and bolts of what’s been done as a result of this privatisation, the end result is best summarised as follows:

    — New South Wales electricity is being made in a Swamp by the Swamp for the sole benefit of the Swamp.

    The fine detail is that everyone in this restructured Electricity Swamp is making lots of moolah while the the households, offices, workshops a heavier industrial have been crushed and offshored.

    Our State is not alone, and Australians can rightly say that they have been scammed by our betters once again.

    Chyna has shown that the newer coal fired power plants cover all bases in terms of environmental concerns, whether real or imagined, and costs.

    The logical step from this is that our government should take responsibility and spend the next five years rebuilding State Grids so that we can function as we did previously.

    We need our industrial base back, we need our offices back and lastly, we need to see the backs of corrupt politicians and public serpents.

    Do we have any leaders in Australia?

    KK

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    • #
      Robert Swan

      Kalm Keith,

      The fine detail is that everyone in this restructured Electricity Swamp is making lots of moolah

      This is certainly not accurate. As I have pointed out here a few times, the AGL share price has gone from $25 a few years ago to about $8 now, so that proves that not *everybody* involved is making lots of moolah.

      My suspicion is that very very few are making much out of it. What we really have is a serious infestation with parasites. It’s not like the parasites are living the high life, but we’d be much better off if they weren’t living at all.

      90

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Robert,
        I never meant to imply that some innocent parties haven’t been shafted along with the rest of us.
        AGL investors have apparently put hard earned money in and watched it drained off to Wall Street and even more local sites.
        The “crashes” of 1987 and 2007 also took a lot of our savings and superannuation accounts.
        That money was not “lost”, it went somewhere where it was very much appreciated.
        All of the above has been aided and abetted by politicians.
        We need accountability in government and it’s not there.

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    • #
      Pauly

      Kalm Keith,
      Ignoring history doesn’t make your argument right, or even valid.

      When reviewing individual states’ privatisation timelines, it becomes obvious that most of the effort was in preparation for the establishment of the National Electricity Market. When looking into the history of the NEM, the triggering event was the 1993 Hilmer report:
      https://www.australiancompetitionlaw.org/reports/1993hilmer.html

      As the above link shows, the Hilmer report was commissioned by Paul Keating in 1992 to deal with large scale economic issues in the electricity sector identified over decades. The following document provides some historical background to this report:
      https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/142953/3/Australia%27s%20National%20Electricity%20Market%20after%20Twenty%20Years.pdf

      The creation of the NEM was done in consultation with all the state governments, each of which had to restructure their state-based organisations to align with the future intent of the NEM. The entire process took years.

      Privatisation in some states coincided with a Liberal state government. But the creation of the NEM, and the restructure of state-based electricity grids into a consistent national electricity market, was going to happen anyway.

      72

      • #
        Ross

        I think KK has a point. I don’t want to see the dark old days of the SEC back here in Victoria. Overstaffed, restrictive work practices, union domination etc and then the occasional strike as well. I generally hate big government as a general rule. But, I think we need to have government back into the supply side of electricity because it is so essential. All profit motive is never good, and has never really worked in Australia for any infrastructure. In your last paragraph you described the NEM as a ” national electricity market”. There’s the problem right there. NEM works nothing like a market. Certainly not a free market in the pure economic sense. It’s more of a contrived exchange influenced by politics and ideology. In a true market, supply should be governed by the most efficient, very often cheapest suppliers. That doesn’t happen with NEM. There has been a lopsided bias towards unreliable, expensive renewables which are granted entry into the market due to “green” policies.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Thank you Ross.

          10

        • #
          Pauly

          I think the challenge for the NEM is that its entire focus has been about energy. Many of the rules by which the NEM operates have been purposely modified to benefit the introduction of renewables, like the shift from 30 minute bidding to 5 minute bidding.

          However, recent price spikes in electricity spot prices are now occurring whenever total generation capacity is critically close to demand. The problem for renewables is that they actually don’t provide excess generation capacity, like coal and gas peaker plants were designed to provide.

          The consequence of a market focused only on energy, and ignoring capacity, was highlighted in Texas, during the cold snap of February 2020. The following article provides some useful discussion about that issue:
          https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/18/assigning-blame-for-the-blackouts-in-texas/

          Simply stated, there is no financial return for excess capacity in an energy market. And as the above article points out, no one is responsible for providing adequate capacity in an energy market.

          40

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Pauly, as you say;

            “no one is responsible for providing adequate capacity in an energy market”.

            True, and it’s obvious that this situation has been created by Politicians from both sides of the political spectrum to ensure that they can’t be held accountable for the additional five billion dollars, or so that is drained from Australian electricity users each year.

            That money goes “somewhere”, and while it’s mostly overseas to China and Germany to pay for the renewables hardware, there’s still a lot of free cash involved.

            This is a Uniparty thing: grab it while you can.

            KK

            30

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Pauly,

            the “challenge” for the NEM is that it exists.

            A nation intent on providing cheap, reliable, environmentally clean energy would not use so called renewables and would act ethically in all facets of the task.

            Right now we have a smoke screen in the form of the NEM which has one job; to make it impossible to hold anyone to account for the destruction of our nation.

            KK

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            • #
              yarpos

              The lady from NY got out just in time to avoid the chaos. All this didnt happen overnight.

              50

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Pauly,
        I wasn’t ignoring history but only looking at the state government action which was unjustifiable in that it introduced another group of marketing parasites and split the power bill to allow rorts with infrastructure arrangements on top of basic electricity use.

        It was interesting to hear that Keating had been involved.

        30

    • #
      John in Oz

      “everyone in this restructured Electricity Swamp is making lots of moolah”

      The AER has 131 registered electricity retailers.

      There must be lots of moolah sloshing around for this many companies to want to be in the market and, until recently, making a profit (plus, I suspect, large pay packets for those at the top).

      20

    • #
      Dennis

      Electricity, gas and water supply is the constitutional responsibility of State governments.

      21

  • #
    David Maddison

    The destruction of Australia’s energy supply under Morrison and his predecessors was bad enough, but under Albanese:

    You ain’t heard nothin’ yet! (Apologies to Al Jolson.)

    300

  • #
    Broadie

    Should be an interesting confrontation at your neighbourhood transformer. Those who have been enjoying subsidized solar installations with high feed in tariffs will be receiving bills for their power. The fault of course will be the new neighbours larger system and a sparky who has cranked up the output voltage to push electrons for his customer.
    A sunny day will see high voltages when nobody wants the power.

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    • #
      Earl

      Just to add a new slant I, and I am sure others, already receive a power bill despite having had both solar panels and solar hot water for the last 8 years. Yes during the summer months the credit has been great however during the winter months with less sun coupled with one oil heater (we roll it from the lounge into the bedroom for the morning) we have always incurred bills of $150-180 for the winter quarter. We also already experience the effect of neighbours new systems and have seen around a 12% drop in summer refund after two immediate neighbours put in their systems about 2 years ago. Cloudy days are the “most expensive” because apparently when they clear and all the solar panels feed in suddenly increases the grid can’t cope and some generation is lost.

      The 12% reduction was also contributed to by the power company clawing back some of its lost revenue by reducing their feed in rebate and tinkering with their other charges. And of course the weather effects since February mean we will break even this quarter and expect the coming winter quarter will generate a bill in excess of the usual $150-180.

      Then there are the non-discussed/considered charges which include the initial installation costs (obviously), the call out fees after the converter trips a bit too often to be a safety switch out and you find the initial installation wasn’t up to standard and since they no longer operate you are up for the full cost of the fix. Then each year (or 2 as you take the gamble and push it out given the expense) the firm that comes out to check your panels and cleans them, another $200 hit. And since we are coming up to 10 year installation we have replacement costs to consider as the panels (great up to now) start to fail. Look out green world a load of non-recycle waste approaching.

      We bought the 1970s built place in 1998 and when it came to going “green” tried to do our bit with the solar panels and hot water after all everyone was doing it. Then about 3 years ago the water marks started to appear in the kitchen, lounge room and one bedroom within a few weeks of each other. Clearly the cement roof tiles had had enough and the additional weight of the solar plus people walking on them have impacted. I’ve done some running repairs as best I can because no-one wants the small fix job. It really needs a new roof which means the additional expense of disconnecting and removing then reinstalling both solar water and panels. Being a 2 storey place OH&S rules mean scaffolding has to be set up and so basically you can more or less double the cost of new roof.

      If only we could live month to month without having to worry about the accumulative year to year effect then yes high feed in tariffs would be so, so rewarding. Unfortunately months do change into year to year and the real costs make the months less significant than some think which is exactly how the national grid is playing out right now.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Good outline.

        20

      • #
        Broadie

        Good article Earl!

        Anyway, cheer up, could be worse!

        if:

        You had a steel roof and were near the ocean. The race is on to see which part of your house oxidizes first. Now that is a real battery!

        Then of course there is those who have out-smarted the electricity companies and installed a battery bank. Those Lithium batteries are sure good to look at. Just like your Tesla and with similar problems

        https://cybershack.com.au/cybershack/lg-ess-solar-home-battery-inspection-and-recall-extended/

        I am not laughing at people who believe they are doing the ‘right thing’. It is a shame the mainstream media and bureaucracy did not present the ‘Cons’ as well as they promoted the ‘Pros’.

        20

        • #
          Earl

          No worries Broadie. Your battery comment is timely as here on local tv we have a campaign for solar storage battery at the remarkable price of $3,400!!! Personally the only way I would get a battery is if it it housed at some distance to the house. Having experienced the Microsoft Surface expanding computer battery just do not trust them. Funny how LG have to do a recall yet Microsoft get away with a no sorry your out of warranty. Cheers.

          And cheers KK.

          10

        • #
          yarpos

          Interesting how the technology has changed over time. Now you dont have to have high current DC wiring and a big invertor for panels nor do you need power to rooftop solar hot water system. I guess it only helps marginally when re roofing time comes though, just makes them a little less high maintenance along the way.

          00

          • #
            Broadie

            Interesting Technology says Thor!

            Boom _ Kzzzzttttt. Bang/ Flash ratio less than one second.

            It’s fried. Start again.

            The truth is we do not need more cr&p in our lives. My advice has always been stay hooked to the grid and go fishing. Ten years ago, I changed to put a changeover switch in and a 5 kva generator you are going to need it. I am now at step two with the proviso that you change the fuel and give the genrator a run every now and then, then go fishing.

            20

        • #
          Earl

          For the record I did like your comment and responded positively but failed review. Cheers.

          10

          • #
            Broadie

            For the record I thought your story was deadly accurate. And I have had various electronic devices destroyed by lightning, including 2 inverters. The magnetic component loves my modems, with a long run of copper adsl.

            10

  • #
    mike+reed

    Mike Reed
    Well here we go and hang on tight cause things aint going to get much better for everyone financially in the future.And why did this happen? Well for starters
    state governments should never have sold(or been allowed to) off Electricity utilities -coal fired power stations -but it did enable them to temporarily “balance” deficit budgets which they created through excess spending.Then came the the Transition to renewables and brought to us by Green energy crony capitalists all sanctioned
    by successive Federal Governments through huge subsidies of their generous LGCs (Large Generating Certificates) which reliable fossil fuel has to buy from Green energy
    for every megawatt of reliable power that they (coal fired power stations )produce.So its definitely a case of “reap what you sow”.Now the best way to economically
    to bring about an on going recession are by increased energy costs of electricity together with those unreliable things like petrol and diesel also going through the roof price wise.Now this will inevitably lead to inflation (which we are seeing now).Hey now what would be the best thing to now to reign in this inflation monster -increase interest rates
    well I wonder what this will mean for people under huge mortgage stress (million dollar mortgages or more).
    But hey never mind because Anthony Albanese will bring the country together(also aided and abetted the Dark Greens and Teals) through addressing of all things the
    existential threat -Drum roll -ta da-Climate Change and he will do this by a new novel approach more job creating Green energy.There you go these minor economic
    problems solved by that kind of original and creative thinking!!!
    Cheers Mike Reed

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  • #
    Mike

    As I was driving down the highway yesterday listening to radio, the news broadcast an interview clip with the new Energy Minister Chris Bowen. He said “this governmt is committed to clean green ‘cheap’ electricity generation…..blah blah”. I near ran off the road as I punched the radio off button in anger. It’s as you say, watch the energy sector implode under this new political regime!

    400

    • #
      yarpos

      Bowen has a way of looking serious and talking very earnestly while spouting drivel. He should be a good fit for that portfolio. A man for the times.

      220

    • #
      Maptram

      I saw Chris Bowen on TV yesterday saying something similar. He said renewable energy is free. He is correct in that the energy produced by the sun and wind is free, but he doesn’t understand that the free energy is unreliable and there are costs in converting the free energy to usable energy, getting the usable energy to users and providing backup energy sources to cover the frequent times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.

      90

      • #
        David Maddison

        The “wind is free” but any sailboat owner will tell you that it is hugely expensive and unreliable to collect.

        200

    • #
      KP

      Lol! Bowen?? The clown said this-

      “Bowen pointed the finger at the outgoing Morrison government for delaying the decision on the default market offer and for “nine years of policy chaos” that delayed the transition from more costly coal power to cheaper renewable energy.”

      How’s that cheaper renewable energy working out? Not one mainstream media outlet will pull him up on that!

      160

      • #
        el+gordo

        Oz Editorial

        ‘Bill shock is a warning of hard road ahead on power.

        ‘Bowen must force industry to deliver cheaper prices it promised.’

        50

        • #
          yarpos

          “force the industry” what planet are they on?

          50

          • #
            el+gordo

            A Bill was being debated on that in 2019, but I don’t know if it ended up in the bottom draw.

            Any attempt to force the industry would heighten sovereign risk for investors and force up prices.

            10

  • #
    el+gordo

    The new government is saying Angus Taylor sat on the DMO Report, intending to release it after the election. It appears the free enterprise model is seriously flawed.

    “In setting these new DMO [default market offer] prices, we understand the significant impact they will have on some consumers who may already be struggling with cost-of-living pressures,” Ms Savage said.

    “If a large number of retailers are unable to recover their costs and are forced to exit the market – as we have seen recently in the United Kingdom – that will add more cost to consumers.” (ABC)

    200

  • #
    StephenP

    What will happen when you add EVs to the mix?

    170

    • #
      StephenP

      Maybe they will burst into flame like the buses

      200

      • #
        Earl

        Funny you should mention buses. Here in BrisVegas we are gambling on a new generation of buses that come with light rail features but without tracks, overhead wires and poles. The pilot vehicle has arrived for testing throughout 2022 and into 2023 and comes with a “flash charging system” which can recharge the bus in under 6 minutes. There will be four end of route charrging stations installed which are 85 times faster than at-home electric vehicle charging systems.

        Lets hope the bus drivers are fully trained in the re-charging process given the incredible amount of power that a x85 faster system must deliver to get a 6 minute turn around.

        Bus drivers wife “Turn the light out darl I want to go to sleep”.
        Bus driver “The light is out darling”!

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        • #
          David Maddison

          They are installing 15 × 600kW “flash” charging stations.

          https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-and-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro/the-metro

          10

          • #
            Earl

            Thanks for the link, I was quoting from the letterbox drop Living in Brisbane May-June paper edition just received.
            The website mentions a combination of flash and slow charging hubs with Rochedale – a new metro depot – having 5 Flash and 60 slow. No mention of how long it takes for the slow charge and since the city council fleet is currently over 1200 buses and council has the option to purchase a further 59 of these new metro 150 passenger vehicles all this infrastructure is going to “improve” the green of a very limited section of the bus network. Back in 2018 the new service – projected cost $944million – was reported to be capable of increasing peak capacity by 22,000 passengers per hour and take 125 buses off the road which reinforces just how limited this advance is going to be.

            From experience with my mobile phone I learned about batteries “forgetting” how much charge they had ie if you recharged whenever the battery got to 50% then 50% became its capacity however research appears to have found a more accurate explanation but as the article so clearly comments “…we truly are slaves to electricity”.

            20

          • #
            Earl

            Thanks for the link, I was quoting from the letterbox drop Living in Brisbane May-June paper edition just received.

            The website mentions a combination of flash and slow charging hubs with Rochedale – a new metro depot – having 5 Flash and 60 slow. No mention of how long it takes for the slow charge and since the city council fleet is currently over 1200 buses and council has the option to purchase a further 59 of these new metro 150 passenger vehicles all this infrastructure is going to “improve” the green of a very limited section of the bus network. Back in 2018 the new service – projected cost $944million – was reported to be capable of increasing peak capacity by 22,000 passengers per hour and take 125 buses off the road which reinforces just how limited this advance is going to be.

            From experience with my mobile phone I learned about batteries “forgetting” how much charge they had ie if you recharged whenever the battery got to 50% then 50% became its capacity however research appears to have found a more accurate explanation but as the article so clearly comments “…we truly are slaves to electricity”.

            00

        • #
          yarpos

          Item 1 of driver training manual:

          Do NOT sit inside the vehicle while charging.

          60

      • #
        Trevor

        Maybe the burning EV’s can be used to spin a turbine and generate electricity?

        80

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      There will be no ‘adding’ of EVs.
      If they wanted a transition they would be preparing the grid.
      It’s about the terminal impoverishing of the ordinary population.
      Not a conspiracy theory.
      They are proudly and publicly celebrating their intentions in Davos at this very moment.
      With expensive wine and expensive companions.
      Protected by their very own Janissaries.

      150

  • #
    Binny Pegler

    When you consider that the last 2 months have been in the ‘Goldie Locks zone’ for domestic consumption (no heaters/aircons) it’s not looking good.
    Of cause when it happens, it will be a disaster no-one could have foreseen – caused by climate change.

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    • #
      yarpos

      Usually its called a “perfect storm of events” that nobody can be held responsible for. Although you can bet the finger will get pointed at the false and abstract “unreliable coal power” ignoring what we have run on for the last 50 years.

      100

  • #
    Binny Pegler

    A lot of those Sate Government still own (as in main share holders) those Electricity utilities. They’ve simply stepped out of the ‘blame zone’ while still raking in the dividends. They are significant beneficiaries of high power prices.

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  • #
    Gerry

    Now that the prospect of blackouts is inevitable, I’m wanting to get a diesel/ petrol generator. I live on a suburban block in outer Melbourne and am aware that these things create noise as well as electricity. My brother-in-law said he’s going to dig a hole in the backyard and put a generator in it to muffle the noise.
    Is this a good idea?, will it work? Or does anyone have better ideas ? Thanks.

    80

    • #
      Eng_Ian

      The soil is good at absorbing the sound energy. Being below grade has problems when it rains, requiring functional drainage. Also, the cavity will fill with CO2 from the engine which could make servicing risky.

      I think a better solution would be to use concrete tilt up panels on all sides and a good sound absorbing door. If you have them tilted outward at the top the sound will be directed skyward. Ultimately any one who could get a line of sight to the generator or to an internal face of the concrete will hear the beast when it runs. So those walls will have to be high if you really want to kill all sound.

      The simplest solution. Hang a sign on it saying that you are using the generator to charge the community’s electric car at the library. No idiot will complain then…..

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      • #
        Earl

        “…the generator to charge the community’s electric car at the library”

        which is driven by the only drag queen in the village who is there to read to the children. There ya go totally indisputable water tight answer. LOL.

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    • #
      Ken Stewart

      Don’t worry about the neighbours, if they’re smart they’ll have generators running too, and the others will be sitting in the dark wishing they did.

      110

      • #
        Ken Stewart

        And the noise isn’t too bad, you get used to it. We’ve had a generator under the house for a week after cyclones, for a few hours every day when needed.

        50

        • #
          Earl

          And if you sync it with the “whoomp whoomp whoomp” of the local wind turbines man what a beat as you settle back for a bong of The Greens legalised marijuana, what noise man?.

          90

    • #
      yarpos

      A simple arrangement of light weight panels like OSP board or plywood around the generator reduces the sound levels. As much for your own benefit as anyone elses.

      Whatever you do remember they are air cooled and air flow needs to be maintained. Theres a few Censortube videos on the topic.

      100

    • #
      KP

      Buy a bigger one in partnership with the neighbours…

      50

    • #
      Ross

      Digging a hole will be a disaster. If you did that where I live, it would fill up with water, have a frog colony and then in summer you would need to check for snakes before starting the generator. Keep it above ground and try some form of sound insulated shelter. Prior to the electricity grid (<1950's) most farms had generators and they were always placed a long way from the house in their own small shed. Pool pumps have sound proof shelters so maybe convert one of those to higher sound insulation. But you need easy access and good airflow as well.

      61

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Gerry,
      a petrol generator should be easier to start but has to be run fairly regularly. Yamaha and Honda make very quiet models but they cost far more than cheaper Chinese ones. Not sure what size you would need but a 1,000Watt unit would be around $1500.
      You will also have to get a licensed electrician to install a connection.

      As for installation I would suggest a ‘roof’ keeping the rain off and baffle walls some distance away (so you can get to the unit which is waterproof anyway) to prevent direct transmission of noise.

      50

      • #
        Old Cocky

        The Honda and Yamaha units last much longer and have decent parts availability as well.

        Some Chinese stuff is quite good, but a lot of the real cheapies don’t seem to have spare parts.

        50

      • #
        David Maddison

        I have a neighbour that connects his generator by first turning off the mains power switch then he uses a highly dangerous extension lead with a plug on both ends which connects from the outlet of the generator to a power outlet in the hose. Obviously only the power circuit it is connected to becomes active in this manner.

        Obviously dangerous and not recommended…

        40

    • #
      Tel

      My brother-in-law said he’s going to dig a hole in the backyard and put a generator in it to muffle the noise.
      Is this a good idea?, will it work?

      Gonna be tricky when it rains, depending on how the seepage is
      looking … the hole might fill up with water.

      You also need to make sure it doesn’t strangle itself with it’s own exhaust but I’m sure there’s ways to figure out the airflow.

      20

    • #
      Bruce

      Digging? Water tables can be “interesting”.

      If you have a small garden shed, put it in there. A couple of spaced layers of Gyprock internally. Generator sitting on serious rubber blocks on the concrete floor, Air intake via a noise-damping baffle, Exhaust via a flexible metal (like a giant microphone goose-neck) pipe to a separate point. (small, sand-bag “igloo” to tone that down.

      The only indication of it operating will be the nice lights in the house. and the regular visits to refuel the thing. Many of the moderately-sized units on the market are mechanically pretty quiet, straight out of the box. DO NOT forget to check / change the oil as per the manufacturer’s instructions.

      Draw even less attention by masking all house doors and windows with heavy-duty polyethylene builder’s sheeting (Take a leaf, so to speak, from the suburban hydroponic dope-farmers handbook, but without the green, leafy material production).

      30

    • #
      Dennis

      Consider leisure boat inboard engine insulation panels.

      00

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      You can buy silenced gensets. They are very good.

      20

    • #
      Grogery

      I think it’s better to make as much generator noise as possible.

      Maybe when all the complaints start coming in, the imbeciles in charge might realise there’s something wrong.

      10

  • #
    Bruce

    The shameless psychoses roll on, unabated:

    https://instapundit.com/522221/

    More ruthless provocation exposed.

    And terminal cretinism.

    50

  • #
    Robber

    On the Tango Energy website:
    – Best electricity offer Winter Warmer 16% below the Victorian Default Offer, $92/month for 4,000 kWh/year.
    – Tango Blue 100% renewable electricity 12% above the VDO, $122/month.
    I’m sure all the Teals will be racing to go Blue and save the planet.
    And can’t wait to see Albo’s action plan: “Creating jobs, cutting power bills and reducing emissions by boosting renewable energy are at the centre of Labor’s Powering Australia plan. This plan will bring cheaper renewable energy to Australian homes and businesses.”

    90

    • #
      Eng_Ian

      When we quote Albo we should include the ‘lispy’ bits too.

      Like, Hello, I’m your Pwime Minissster.

      I wonder if Google Translate can do Albo, (or is that AnAl).

      You’ve had Scomo, now it’s time for …..

      82

  • #
    Mike+of+NQ

    Albo promised to reduce electricity bills by $275 per year by 2025. Great start, but of course everyone knew it was a lie.

    220

    • #
      Ross

      Well, actually he still could. Just give every household a $275 subsidy. What’s another few billion $ to the deficit? Chicken feed!

      50

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Not at all. In 2025 you will get a cut of $275 in your electricity bill (which will have doubled in the next couple of years)

      50

    • #
      yarpos

      This will stop being talked about very rapidly.

      10

  • #
    Robber

    Anthony Albanese is facing soaring electricity prices in the opening months of his prime ministership after the national regulator approved rises of up to 18 per cent from July.
    But don’t worry, incoming energy minister Chris Bowen said the new government aimed to transform the energy grid to 82 per cent renewables by the end of the decade. The Australian government will now have a policy to see power prices fall through investments in renewable energy, the cheapest form of energy.

    110

    • #
      yarpos

      I can only refer to my comment at 10.1 about Mr Bowens energy utterances.

      70

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      If we are going to try and run on 82% renewables then we will have lots of cheap electricity, but only on February 29.

      You might get some on other days but with the cost of big batteries, interconnectors, hydrogen production and other Green Schemes you most probably won’t be able to afford it.

      80

    • #
      Trevor

      The problem is while they will blame the previous government (and probably continue to do so with any crisis for the next year or so), their response will not be to reopen Liddell or Hazelwood, but to “invest” more in renewables and just make it all worse while continuing to blame the previous government.

      50

  • #
    Neville

    We are heading for really tough times with this new Labor/Greens govt and the cost of living will be frightening over the next 3 years.
    But GLOBALLY the electricity sector percentage will rapidly increase according to the recent EIA reports.Here’s the 2019 report and note the increase from China, India and other developing countries by 2040 and THINK.
    A very modest increase from the wealthy OECD countries as well.
    Now does anyone THINK that the non OECD countries can increase their electricity grids to those levels using the TOXIC S & W idiocy?
    Look at the graphs and explain how we can make a difference? Even if Australia ( 1.1% ) was stupid enough to try to install record levels of S & W we would be completely swamped by the REAL global reality in the coming decades.
    Is there anyone who doesn’t understand the REAL world now?
    Their FANTASY world is a disaster and yet they still BELIEVE.

    https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019/electricity

    60

    • #
      Neville

      Sorry above is the IEA report , not the EIA, but still little difference from the 2 reports.

      20

  • #
    Ken Stewart

    The problem is not so much with renewables cost when they are working- they churn out heaps of power very competitively when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing at the right speed.
    However, the supply fluctuates and often drops completely. In early evening and early morning the demand is always too much for them. So they have to make up the shortfall with gas. (Coal can ramp up but not as quickly). And gas prices have gone through the roof. When one input price goes up, the others can put theirs up as well. Result: average electricity cost across NEM for last 30 days = $385.04 per MWhr.

    140

    • #
      Pauly

      Ken,
      Is this an interesting example of supply fluctuation in rooftop solar?
      https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2022/05/24/what-happened-to-rooftop-solar-yesterday/

      I’ve seen no one else making any comments or notifications about this incident. How do we get more information on what happened? It might be a real supply issue, or it might have been a reporting failure, or it might have been trivial human error.

      Is no one responsible for reporting these issues to the electricity consumers of Australia?

      70

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Ken,
      Hydro ramps up pretty quickly and seems to be being used regularly recently, including producing more power than gas regularly.
      My source:

      https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem#nem-dispatch-overview

      My use of “regularly” above is a provocation. I tend to access the above link (only) a couple of times a day, so my sample is small, especially as it’s updated every 5 minutes.
      However I have been looking at it for many months now, and have seen the change in prices go from usually under $100 per MW to now regularly over $300 and sometimes $400 +.
      Black coal output seems to be peaking at about 11GW, coinciding with the high prices, and much gas and hydro.

      Cheers
      Dave B

      40

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Ken,
      switching to “cover” by Open Cycle GTs has 2 problems; the first is that they are expensive to run** (which includes maintenance) and the other that the reduction in CO2 emissions isn’t that great (they pump out almost as much as the latest coal-fired plants per MWh).
      They are also small sized so many units are needed, which helps (mostly) avoid maintenance downtime.

      And they can run on diesel fuel or could if our Governments did something about supply.

      ** I remember when SA went throught supply shortages a few years ago that it was noted that OCGTs would startup for less than $290 per MWh.

      10

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Wouldn’t start up. These days they might be running full time (which would reduce maintenance from heat stresses and slightly lower CO2 emissions.

        10

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      In other words, there’s profiteering in the NEM.

      00

  • #
    OldOzzie

    Power prices beat political promises

    Businesses and households are facing much higher power bills and a new Labor government won’t be able to reverse that, no matter the campaign promises of either side.

    But, of course, the reasons driving energy prices ever higher are far more complicated. Nor will this reality be altered by Labor’s cheery campaign promises to deliver lower power prices.

    At best, Labor’s commitment to accelerate tens of billions of dollars of private sector investment in transmission through low-cost loans from its Rewiring the Nation fund may have a moderating impact long term.

    Even that is very uncertain, including the nonsense of modelling somehow showing a cut of $275 in household bills by 2025.

    In the short term at least, there’s no respite from the potent collision of global and domestic forces dramatically forcing up power bills.

    These range from soaring international oil, gas and coal prices accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine; to years of reluctance by state governments to develop new domestic gas supplies; to breakdowns in ageing coal plants; to floods to COVID-19 disruptions; and to the inability of renewable energy and storage and batteries to make up enough of the gap so far.

    The latest sticker price shock comes from the Australian Energy Regulator determining the maximum increase permitted for the “default market offer” in three states for next financial year.

    This is just more evidence of the excessively complicated system, including different rules and state jurisdictions, underpinning the national energy market on the east coast. It is incomprehensible to most users.

    Although only about 10 per cent of retail residential customers and 20 per cent of small businesses are on this safety net, it provides a benchmark for retail prices more generally.

    The rationale for having the regulator set the offer is to “protect customers from unjustifiably high prices, while allowing retailers a sufficient margin to enable them to recover costs and offer new products and customer innovations to the market”.

    Bland wording doesn’t obscure extreme financial pain spreading when wholesale prices surge to the extraordinary levels they have this year. Retailers can only lift prices or risk collapse – as many smaller UK retailers are discovering to their cost.

    So Australia’s regulator said that from July 1 residential prices would increase, in nominal terms including inflation, by 7.2 per cent in South Australia to 11.3 per cent in south-east Queensland to between 8.5 per cent and 14.1 per cent in NSW depending on where people live.

    The bad news is even more horrendous for most small business customers, including rises ranging from 10 per cent to 19.8 per cent in NSW and 12.8 per cent in south-east Queensland.

    Just to add to regulatory confusion, a separate body regulates default prices in Victoria and this week announced an average 5 per cent increase for that state.

    Weston’s managing director, Garbis Simonian, believes rising prices are putting hundreds of businesses and thousands of jobs at risk.

    “The fact that Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal and gas and yet, our domestic prices are at unprecedented high levels highlights real policy failure,” he said.

    200

  • #
    DLK

    here’s what the Teal-Green-ALP axis will be spruiking:

    Renewables were the world’s cheapest source of energy in 2020, new report shows

    courtesy of the WEF

    50

    • #
      David Maddison

      They keep saying unreliables are so cheap and yet it is OBVIOUSLY not true.

      doublethink
      /ˈdʌb(ə)lθɪŋk/
      noun
      the acceptance of contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination.

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      • #
        RickWill

        They keep saying unreliables are so cheap and yet it is OBVIOUSLY not true.

        This statement is clearly WRONG. The real difficulty with weather dependent generation is that it is OBVIOUSLY lower cost. This is the last year wholesale price for electricity in Australia:
        https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1w

        Average price of wind $84.92 compared with average price of black coal $169.41. So it is quite OBVIOUS that the average price would be lower if there was more wind.

        What is not obvious is that coal actually costs around $30/MWh as base load supply a decade ago (actually wholesale price averaged $28.75/MWh in 2012). Realistically the coal cost increase would now add a bit more – say $35/MWh.

        So it is a complex picture why black coal generation can now be priced at $169.41/MWh and it is just accepted. Roughly 5-fold increase over a decade. It is in no way obvious. You have to understand the complexity to explain it to people who see that W&S are obviously lower cost.

        Then there is the gap between wholesale and retail. The retail price nationally last year averaged $313/MWh while the wholesale price on the NEM averaged just $52.50/MWh.

        16

        • #
          Tel

          The real difficulty with weather dependent generation is that it is OBVIOUSLY lower cost. This is the last year wholesale price for electricity in Australia:

          Useless until you add LRET kickbacks and other government subsidies. For example, the artificial low interest “Green” loans that discount the real capital cost.

          100

          • #
            RickWill

            Useless until you add LRET kickbacks and other government subsidies.

            There is a whole raft of costs that made up the $260.50/MWh difference between the the wholesale price and retail price. The most significant are the costs of transmission and distribution. All the new transmission lines to remote generators and interconnections have to be paid for. Strengthening of distribution networks to handle reverse power flow have to be paid for. These assets have low utilisation so it is very poor use of capital.

            The picture is far more complex than LRET kickbacks and government subsidies. The government subsidies come out of general revenue and are miniscule. The income from LGCs that goes directly to grid scale W&S is levied directly on consumers through retailers. The government only made the rules.

            Like I wrote, the reason W&S is more expensive is anything but obvious.

            22

        • #
          skeptocynic

          How rubbery are those cost estimates for unreliables?
          Do they include all the taxpayer subsidies for example?

          70

        • #
          David Maddison

          Rick, whatever financial manipulations they do to “show” unreliables are cheaper, the fact remains that the more unreliables we have, the more expensive electricity becomes.

          90

          • #
            RickWill

            The data is the wholesale price paid. It is the basis of contract settlements. It clearly shows that the price paid for wind was substantially lower than the price paid for black coal generation. “They” are not manipulating the finances. All generators are aiming to maximise their profits.

            Your argument is not supported by this simple observation. And simple observation is all most people are capable of. They will view the reason for higher price from coal is price gouging and they are correct to a point. Coal can charge what it is charging because it is essential for keeping the lights on. Wind is stuck with having to take the prevailing price that is usually driven lower when wind is working hard. So wind and solar generate well when all other wind and solar are generating. The average price for wind reflects the fact that it usually supplies into an oversupplied market. The average price for coal reflects the scarcity of supply during morning and evening peaks when generation is most needed.

            My point is that you need to understand what is going on – saying it is OBVIOUS is contradictory to simple observation.

            Every news head will be coming out and saying that the high prices are due to increasing gas and coal prices due to Russia. Expert opinion will be coming out stating that Australia has to reduce its dependence on coal and gas in order to get lower electricity prices. Like here:
            https://reneweconomy.com.au/is-a-1970s-style-energy-shock-on-the-cards-for-australia/

            First, let’s summarise why retail electricity prices are rising. In short, the cost of generating power from coal or gas – which accounts about 70% of the electricity Australians consume – is soaring due to international events.

            The short-term market price of black coal (used for about 70% of coal-fired generation) is now about five times higher than its long-run (ten year) average. One coal miner, New Hope Coal, says these are “record highs”.

            Similarly the short-term price of gas has risen to levels never seen before in Australia – about four times its long-run average.

            No one will ask the question – why are we still so dependent on coal and gas after spending scullions on W&S? And then ask – why will spending multi-squillions more make any difference?

            14

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Stockholm Syndrome.
          You’re in it, so you Must believe it.
          There is a real world out here Rick.
          You’re into renewables, great, it’s an interesting hobby, but please don’t dump the enormous cost on the rest of society. It hurts.

          80

          • #
            RickWill

            You’re in it, so you Must believe it.

            I am in it for the lucrative government mandated subsidies. Why pay for energy when I can get paid for what I export?

            Read what I wrote – a simplistic view that it is “Obvious” does not cut it. You need to argue from knowledge. The OBVIOUS fact that any RE advocate can point to is that the price for wind has been substantially lower than the price paid for coal – that is obvious and irrefutable.

            Now you have to get it through thick heads why that is so and why to forces retail prices higher. There is no point in saying it is obvious because wind is obviously lower price than black coal throughout 2021 in Australia.

            Greens and Teals had an overwhelming victory in the recent elections. These self-righteous do-gooders believe they are right. You making a simplistic argument that it is OBVIOUS that RE is more expensive will not make a ripple and from that simplistic perspective is wrong.

            03

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Thanks Rick, so from your last paragraph you’re saying that the costing are the result of politics and not engineering.

              60

              • #
                RickWill

                The lowest cost generation in Australia is coal. Adding intermittent generation has destroyed the economics of coal. System costs are rising and will continue to rise. It was a political decision to allow intermittent generators to connect to grid and I do not believe a system planning engineer was asked if it was a good idea. If they were asked, they did not think it through.

                Also you have to understand the difference between cost and price. The price that generators get has nothing to do with their cost up to the point of them going bust. The objective of all generators in the wholesale market is to maximise profits. Right now, solar is in a yearly low and wind goes missing days to weeks, which is often the case for May in Australia. So electricity generation is low and gas is setting the price most often and even diesel. It is not often that diesel sets the price.

                Solar will continue to be low for the next two months. I do not know what is happening with coal generator availability. But coal prices and gas prices are increasing so all these generators will be setting higher prices to cover their costs while they can.

                The spectacular increase in future price would have to be be based on availability of coal plants. I do not know what issues they have.

                10

  • #
    RicDre

    I love the King Island website posted here by a fellow contributor a while a go. I was was watching it a few minutes ago and it reached a triple-witching moment: Wind -8KW, Solar 0KW, Battery -4KW (Diesel 2250KW). That cheap and reliable renewable energy is sure living up to its promise on King Island! (its currently Wind -13, solar 12, battery -4, Net Zero! [or less])

    100

    • #
      GERARD BASTEN

      A wind powered augmentation of a diesel powered system has always (well nearly always) made sense because it minimizes the total cost of expensive diesel fuel in remote locations. I makes less sense if thermal generation is available in sufficient quantities.

      For those gushing over the benefits of renewables, the King Island story is not to be taken as the way forward when thermal power (coal or gas) is available.

      80

      • #
        David Maddison

        If it was truly economic in terms of saving diesel fuel deliveries, Hydro Tasmania, a publicly owned corporation who run it, should release the financials. Many have asked them but they refuse to do so.

        Yes, they may save a small amount of fuel, but at huge cost which almost certainly exceeds any saving.

        90

        • #
          GERARD BASTEN

          No, in remote locations the cost of diesel fuel is a real factor which can be ameliorated by wind.

          30

          • #
            Chad

            GERARD BASTEN
            May 27, 2022 at 10:20 am · Reply
            No, in remote locations the cost of diesel fuel is a real factor which can be ameliorated by wind

            Yes the cost of fuel can be reduced,….
            ….but the total cost of the system ,..including the wind generator, is increased, adding to the cost of generation.

            90

      • #
        ozfred

        Why are the “power cables” connecting Tasmania and Victoria not routed through one or both of the islands?

        00

    • #
      Earl

      Its 3:06pm and on King Island the poor wind turbines are all shagged out from their morning run and have thrown the ball to solar.
      Wind off (-12 kW)
      Solar on (22kW or 2%)
      Diesel on (1410kW or 99%).

      At least the battery appears to be fully charged so losing solar in a couple of hours wont cause a problem lol.

      70

  • #
    rowjay

    Wokenomics in action for about 50% of the global citizens – what could go wrong?

    1. Fossil fuels are bad.
    2. Replace them immediately with alternatives that are not yet proven or reliable 24/7 at the scales needed.
    3. Actively discourage the production of fossil fuels to accelerate the transition – no viable backup plan needed.
    4. Artificial shortening of fossil fuel supplies without viable alternatives in place causes huge price spike and increases producer profits dramatically
    5. Tax the fossil fuel suppliers hard and return these artificial profits to the customers in order to reduce prices????
    6. The next step – damned if I know – maybe Albo has the answer.
    7. The other 50% non-woke global citizens look on with amusement and wait patiently (or some not so patiently) to benefit from woke madness.

    111

  • #
    David Maddison

    The grid will be saved to a certain extent for a limited time when load is permanently shed from the grid by Green Labor policies which will extinguish remaining heavy industry and aluminium smelters.

    Also in Vicdanistan Dictator Comrade Dan is shedding load by paying (With our taxes) to replace electric resistive hot water units with heat pump units and paying to replace other heating systems with more efficient ones.

    50

    • #
      OldOzzie

      Gas cooking and heating could soon be phased out in Victorian homes.

      http://7NEWS.com.au #7NEWS

      An Upper House Committee has recommended that Households go Electric to Reduce their Carbon Footprint

      50

      • #
        Ross

        Was a case once when it was better to cook with gas vs electric. Gas was more instantaneous. But that was a long time ago. I think a lot of people nowadays have experienced cooking with electric induction. Its pretty well just as responsive and lots safer. But heating – I think the law of physics still favours big gas flames in central heating units etc? I don’t think heat pumps appear to be very good substitutes either. Expensive and not very inefficient during long cold periods. Amazing though. Back in the 1960’s the Victorian SEC promoted “all electric” houses -mainly because power was so cheap and abundant. Seems like the wheel has turned around again.

        60

  • #
    William

    Having spent millions to be able to connect cruise ships up to mains electrics while in Sydney Harbour, I wonder if in future they will be paid to continue to run their engines and provide excess power back into the grid while in port.

    110

    • #
      el+gordo

      Probably not.

      20

    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      Only on nights when the wind is calm.

      50

    • #
      Bruce

      After Cyclone tract redistributed Darwin, teh navy fronted up and ran cables ashore to operate actual essential (life saving and preserving) facilities, all of which had to be offloaded from various ships and aircraft, as there was no “City of Darwin” to power up. Many of the buildings were gone as were the “poles and wires” to distribute electricity.

      This country, what’s left of it, desperately needs a serious REALITY CHECK, not a subsidy cheque.

      40

    • #
      Graeme#4

      When California had a power shortage some time ago when cruise ships were still operating, they asked the ships to disconnect from the wharf power and use their own power.

      20

  • #
    RickWill

    This is wonderful timing. I expect the winning glow will be wiped from Albo’s face in short order. Charmer’s smirk will be replaced by a furrowed brow.

    I wonder who the new energy minister will be? Talk about a poison chalice.

    It will not be long before the electricity retailers start to fall over. Don’t think SportsBet is offering odds on this yet!

    This is the chart of the day:
    https://walletinvestor.b-cdn.net/static/frontend/forecast-graphs/fe/forex-usd-rub-forecast-short.png?v=1653595659
    This underlines the importance of having a currency backed by real energy rather than bluster.

    120

    • #
      RossP

      When you commented the other day that this was not going to be a great time to take over the Treasury benches, I bet you did not think the first big brick wall would rise up so quickly, Rick.

      60

      • #
        RickWill

        I have stated before that it was a good election to lose but, you are right, I did not think the cart would look so shaky this soon.

        ScoMo will enjoy this – watching Albo age a decade over the next year.

        90

    • #
      Dennis

      Starting point: Gillard Labor Green alliance minority government formed 2010.

      RET, RET & RET + direct subsidies + carbon tax + renewable energy surcharge + natural gas export agreement.

      22

      • #
        RickWill

        Howard started the RET. Rudd supercharged it. Abbott dialled it back.

        The whole issue is a failure for Australian science. The woke mob at BoM and CSIRO have mush for brains. They are simply too dumb to see that oceans cannot warm beyond 30C. Put that limit in their silly models and there will never be a climate tipping point. Earth has supported life for billions of years due to this single atmospheric phenomenon – its operation visible every day of every year:
        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

        00

    • #
      yarpos

      The Pacific Peso lives! Don’t think its related to having “real energy” though as both sides of that calculation are travelling shakily on the energy front.

      00

  • #
    OldOzzie

    While the Peasants deal with Renewables Price Hikes, the Elite enjoy Low Cost EV’s

    2022 BMW iX price and specs: M60 inbound from $222,900

    The BMW iX luxury electric SUV range will expand in mid-2022 with an M60 performance variant, priced from $222,900 plus on-road costs – $53,000 more than the next model down.

    70

  • #
    David Maddison

    Remember, the people ultimately responsible for these policies will continue to fly their private jets around the world to UN and WEF conferences about climate change. Nothing will stop them.

    Great Thunberg was an archetypal “useful idiot” of the Left but I will give her credit for sailing across the Atlantic (in a hugely expensive high tech yacht) to a UN Climate Action Summit and also taking a train in Germany, albeit, she and her handlers travelled first class.

    130

  • #
    RobKen

    Clarke and Dawe explained how the energy market works just five years ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELaBzj7cn14
    Please don’t laugh this is serious.

    50

  • #
    RossP

    What are you all worried about? All those wonderful TEAL ladies have the answers and they will fix it –that’s why they were voted into power ////

    80

    • #
      Ross

      Yep, my wife said the same thing the other day. Cant wait for the TEAL ladies to fix climate change over the next 3 years. Then once they’ve done that, perhaps world peace.

      50

      • #
        Dennis

        One interviewed said she has no interest in economics or defence and she will leave them to MPs who are interested.

        Another when asked about the inevitable continuing rise in electricty pricing replied that she understands there are internet websites where the people can search for cheaper prices. The same now MP wants EV to replace ICEV as soon as possible, but she would exempt “Range Rovers”. I suspect she was referring to 4WD vehicles favoured as “Mum’s Taxi” in the wealthier suburbs like the electorate she now represents.

        50

  • #
    Strop

    Advocates of renewable energy keep saying we must adopt renewable energy sources to reduce CO2 emissions to fight climate change, climate change, climate change, climate change, and climate change ……. oh, and it will give us cheaper electricity.

    If it really will give us cheaper electricity then that’s all they need to prove to convince people it’s a good thing. Climate change and CO2 emissions become irrelevant to the public if renewables genuinely will cut the cost of electricity. No one is going to object to cheaper electricity.

    There is that little tiny issue known as reliability. But surely making a reliable supply is included in the renewable energy costs when claiming it’s cheaper.

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    If unreliables were cheaper there would be no need to force people to buy the fundamentally defective product. Free market forces would ensure its rapid adoption and closure of proper power stations.

    How long can the obvious lie of it being cheaper sustained when it is clearly not true?

    71

    • #
      Dennis

      There would be no need for several billion dollars every year in subsidies to private sector businesses operating wind and solar installations.

      30

  • #
    David Maddison

    I think the new Labor Government will be by far the worst Labor Government Australia has ever had.

    111

    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      Big call David. There have been so many awful labor governments to choose from.

      40

    • #
      Dennis

      Financial journalist of many decades past has written two scathingly critical articles about the new Treasurer who McCrann explains is in my words a lightweight not up to the job.

      Today the headline was: “Can we afford to have a trainee treasurer?”

      McCrann goes into detail explain exactly why he has no faith in the new Treasurer’s ability.

      41

      • #
        Dennis

        Terry McCrann headline a few days ago: Chalmers dead wrong and also irresponsible.

        “His statement that inflation was almost out of control was not only utterly wrong, it was highly irresponsible ….”.

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        • #
          Ross

          In no time at all, Andrew Charlton will be brought forward in their defence. Golden boy of the Labor Party with a PhD, nonetheless. No-one could possibly contradict him on economic matters. He can wear jeans with a jacket and look really cool for the photo ops as well.

          20

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    The transition to ‘renewables’ is not, as hoped, a magic bullet for cheaper electricity but rather a bullet in its head. How to survive the collateral damage to the household budget is the big challenge for most of us.

    60

  • #
    David Maddison

    So, what is a practical action plan to extricate us from this civilisation-destroying disaster?

    31

    • #
      GERARD BASTEN

      How can you get people to unbelieve in the “green” myth? There is your answer. A huge task, seeing that has taken years of misinformation to get there. For a start we need to rid ourselves of all politicians that support, no matter how little, that green myth. In the whole of government there is but a single soul that really knows what is happening. His name is Malcolm Roberts. A lone voice.

      100

      • #
        el+gordo

        ‘How can you get people to unbelieve in the “green” myth?’

        A strong Federal Opposition should go some way in preparing the people for the shock at discovering CO2 doesn’t cause global warming. The great reset.

        10

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    • #
      RicDre

      “So, what is a practical action plan to extricate us from this civilisation-destroying disaster?”

      I don’t know, but if someone in Australia figures it out, please let us in the US know as we have out own civilisation-destroying disaster to clean up.

      40

      • #
        OldOzzie

        Hard Truths About Power for the Weaker Sex

        Read the paper this morning (25 May). Karen Andrews, former minister for home affairs, is reported as saying that it is important to understand why women abandoned the Liberals. “Disaffected with the Liberal Party,” she said they are, “highly educated, reasonably well off … traditional Liberal Party voters.”

        The Australian newspaper’s environment writer Graham Lloyd wrote this:

        In Germany, women were 13 [per centage] points more likely than men to be concerned that climate change would cause them harm. Double digit differences were also present in the US, Sweden, Britain, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Australia and The Netherlands.

        The latest figures from North Sydney (my electorate per chance) with about three-quarters of the vote counted, has Zimmerman (LINO) on 38.1 per cent, Tink (Teal) on 25.9, Renshaw (Labor) on 21.5 and Armstrong (Greens) on 8. Take women out and would Zimmerman have won? I don’t know, but probably yes. Trump would have won, despite electoral malfeasances, sans women’s votes.

        Women seem to be disproportionately more susceptible to dire warnings of impending doom; and, consequently, to superstitions, like the latest scares propagated by climate-change cultists. When Ms Andrews appeals for a greater understanding as to why women abandoned the Libs, she is on the money, though not perhaps in the way she thinks.

        It would be totally counterproductive and dangerous to all of our futures to pander. To adopt policies espoused by Simon Birmingham, Bridget Archer and other like-minded feminine wets among the Libs. As always, it’s best to stick to truth, but conveyed in ways which take account of the concerns of women, as well as men. The key lies in the fact that the Nats retained all of their seats. Women voted there too.

        While I’m no expert on women’s thinking, I suspect that they highly value security. Matt Canavan apparently made it his business, despite the howls of some his colleagues, to go around explaining how Labor’s cap and trade policy on 215 of the largest companies, the so-called “safeguard mechanism”, is a tax on jobs by the backdoor. Jobs and security are synonymous.

        The way in which so-called climate change is being tackled threatens more than jobs. It will increase electricity and gas prices. It will undermine the reliability of power, the wellspring of prosperity, and plunge households and businesses into blackouts. And, at the most inconvenient of times. And, it will have no effect whatsoever on floods and bushfires in Australia, even when or if we reach net zero. All pain for no gain. Forget the no gain. Focus, laser-like, on the pain.

        Amid the recent vituperative gush from Janet Albrechtsen on Scott Morrison, she makes a telling point that the Libs should have made net zero contingent on nuclear energy. That is a thought which Peter Dutton might toss around in his mind.

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    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      Well my pre-flight briefing to my friends and relatives on my piper aeroplane was to point out the exit and say that in the event of an emergency landing they should put their heads between their knees and kiss their a*** goodbye.

      But I don’t suppose that helps.

      30

      • #
        Forrest Gardener

        Oh dear. I’ve kicked the tripwire again. It would be nice for the software to at least give a hint about the nature of transgression.

        10

      • #
        Dennis

        Try: Sit down, belt up and hang on.

        00

  • #

    Ho hum!

    As I mentioned a few weeks back now when there were 15 of those coal fired Units offline, it had nothing to do with their supposed ‘unreliability’. (and don’t fall for that green outright l1e they parrot every time, without even bothering to check out why they are offline)

    As expected now that Winter is only five days away, they are all slowly coming back online after their period of maintenance.

    There are now just eight of them off line, as each day in recent days, another Unit comes back online.

    Units offline right now
    Vic – 1
    NSW – 2
    Qld – 5

    Incidentally, you know how coal fired power has, well, had its day, and is now well and truly on its way to oblivion, and how AGL (are those cameras on yet) loudly proclaim they are getting out of coal. Well, Bayswater (you remember Bayswater, that plant I have used as an example for more than 14 years now) is undergoing Upgrades, you know, AGL getting out of coal and all that, so those expensive Upgrades mean nothing as the plant is scheduled for demolition ….. soon.

    One of its four Units is still undergoing that Upgrade.

    That leaves those remaining three Units, already with the Upgrade now completed.

    Well, rather than follow the Load, you know, ramp up and down as they used to do, well now, they are just running them flat out all the time, and those three Units have now been doing that for a few weeks, flat line power generation across the page, day in day out, flat out.

    Three Units at full whack. There are times when the output is higher than 2000MW (higher than 100% Capacity Factor) but across an average day, those three Units are delivering their power at an astonishing 98.5%, and have been doing that for weeks now.

    Not bad for what are described as ancient old clunkers on their way out.

    NINETY EIGHT POINT FIVE PERCENT.

    Thirty four years old now, and still operating like day one.

    Wind plants can only dream of that, from a power plant now running ten to fifteen years longer than any wind plant could ever even hope for in its wildest dream.

    Oh and at, what was that figure now, almost $300/MWH.

    Hmm! so AGL are making $14.4 MILLION A DAY from just three ancient old coal burners at the one power plant.

    Oh dear, somebody’s just rolling in it, eh!

    Oh, and another thing here. You know that Base Load (that supposed non existent furphy that the greens claim does not exist) that minimum daily power consumption ….. every single DAY, that year round average of 18000MW.

    Well now, with Winter approaching, that BASE LOAD is inexorably rising, as it always does in Winter, up now to around 18,600MW on its way to the Winter average of 19500MW, with some nights up around 21500MW.

    That’s 80% of the daily average power consumption, you know, the LOWEST it ever gets to.

    Oh, and the coal fired part of that Base Load, well, that’s 13500MW or 73% of that Base Load.

    That’s THIRTEEN THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED MEGAWATTS.

    For the sake of comparison, at that exact same time, the contribution fro the four renewables is 4000MW.

    Take away that coal fired power and you have ….. NOTHING, quite literally nothing.

    Tony.

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    • #
      GERARD BASTEN

      It is be a good time to have a stake in coal. Prices of today were unheard of when the market started in the late 90’s. Yes, AGL must be rolling in it now and is making hay whilst the sun shines. Before they close down.

      40

      • #
        RickWill

        hay whilst the sun shines

        They are making lots out of coal for the opposite reason – the sun is not shining much in Australia right now.

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  • #
    Neville

    The Greens couldn’t care less about the average Aussie family plus their jobs and are now pushing for an even more ruinous, faster shut down of coal etc.
    Never forget that the entire SH is already a NET co2 SINK and we could shut down our tiny 1.1% and the difference would be ZERO change to temp or climate.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/26/what-energy-price-spike-aussie-greens-call-for-coal-ban/

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  • #
    James Murphy

    Is there a significant nuclear power advocacy group in Australia?

    50

    • #
      Ross

      No, not really. But we have had Nuclear power enquiries. A bloke called Ziggy Kwitowski ( probably wrong spelling) undertook an enquiry on behalf of the federal government back in the 1990’s. He had previously been head of Telstra Australia. The enquiry came up with the conclusion that it might be a good idea to begin a nuclear industry and even suggested a possible site on the south coast of New South Wales for a nuclear power plant (Jervis Bay?). But his suggestions were contrasted with the fact that Australia is blessed with over 500 years supply of easily accessible coal – so, it would be crazy to ignore that fact. I’m paraphrasing a little, but that was the gist of it.

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      • #
        Dennis

        Ziggy a nuclear physicist, I recall that he recommended modular nuclear generators being developed at that time and from memory fifty of them around Australia including The Outback now still reliant on diesel generators and with no electricity grid.

        40

      • #
        Strop

        2019 Parliamentary report.
        https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Nuclearenergy/Report
        Includes a dissenting report from Zali Steggall. Interesting that someone who was elected based on a Climate “Crisis” is a voice against the ONLY low CO2 emitting reliable source of energy production (apart from hydro but that’s not an option here on a scale required). Not such a crisis after all.

        A further 2020 report
        https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/7451398/upload_binary/7451398.pdf

        From The Guardian 29 Aug 2019

        Switkowski said though nuclear power had “no social licence at this time” the legislative ban against it should “absolutely” be abolished. “We really should not be making decisions in 2019 based on legislation passed in 1999 reflecting the views of 1979,” he said.

        He reiterated his belief that the window for large-scale nuclear plants had closed, a view shared by Taylor, but said he believed there would be an opportunity for small modular reactors, known as SMRs, of between 60 and about 200 megawatts.

        He said they were most likely to be successful in regional communities with about 100,000 people or in powering mining or desalination sites. “But we won’t know until the SMRS are deployed in quantity [overseas],” Switkowski said. “That’s unlikely to happen for another 10 or so years.”

        He listed the positives and concerns associated with developing a nuclear industry. The disadvantages included that, given historic disasters at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, “the possibility of catastrophic failure in a nuclear system is non-negligible”.

        He said conventional nuclear reactors were “now very expensive”, partly due to safety requirements in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Nuclear power was the most capital-intensive energy technology and took the longest to recoup investment. Unlike with solar and wind energy, there did not appear to be economies of scale – the cost of nuclear electricity grew as technology advanced. Switkowski said as far he was aware, no coherent business case to finance an Australian industry had been presented. Any business case would require significant government support.

        “Given that Australia would begin from a standing start, the first reactor of any commercial scale would take about 15 years to reach normal operation and generate revenues,” Switkowski said.

        Based on experience overseas, he said it was more likely that 15 years would be an underestimate than an overestimate of how long it would take. He said the commercial and political risks of developing an industry over what could be more than five political cycles were substantial.

        Positives included that nuclear reactors were comparable to renewable energy in terms of emissions and would help meet national greenhouse targets.

        “In theory, the phasing out of coal-fired power stations and the phasing in of nuclear reactors could make a lot of sense,” he said.

        Switkowski said nuclear was highly efficient, did not depend on the weather and could operate around the clock. Australia was well suited to support a nuclear fleet as it had strong environmental standards, capable regulators familiar with radiation safety, was geologically stable, had a technologically capable workforce and was home to a third of the world’s economically recoverable uranium.

        He said the role of government should be to produce a coherent national energy strategy with bipartisan support that was technologically agnostic, balanced cost with resilience and risk, met emissions targets and restored energy as a source of national competitive advantage.

        Nuclear should be considered alongside all other technologies, including solar and wind backed by batteries and pumped hydro storage, he said. “It may mean nuclear is not to be the preferred baseload generator, but we don’t know.”

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      This website has put out some interesting reports James: http://www.smrnuclear.com.au/

      20

    • #
      el+gordo

      Nuclear is out of the picture, its all about renewables. So they’ll go town by town, like Broken Hill and the Alice.

      https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2022/05/23/outback-town-teams-cdu-to-research-renewable-energy-future/

      11

      • #
        yarpos

        With the documented success of King Island they can just cookie cut the solution everywhere.

        10

  • #
    Zane

    I wandered into my local Woolworths one morning last week to find I had apparently stumbled onto the set of a low budget zombie movie. Half of the lights were off and various shoppers, some still masked, moved eerily through the gloom. Entire aisles were dark. Reading labels on grocery products required serious squinting. At the time I thought either a fuse has blown or it might be a power saving measure, perhaps a harbinger of what our green-compliant low-energy future may look like. I finished my shopping and departed, soon completely forgetting the strange experience.

    All was revealed during a later evening visit to the same supermarket, when an announcement over the PA informed customers that once a week Woolworths management has decreed a ” quiet time ” shopping period for those who find the everyday stresses of procuring groceries to be overwhelming. I remember thinking ” Aha! That solves one mystery! ”

    But one day these ” quiet ” shopping intervals may become the default, should grid capacity continue to be reduced while immigration constantly increases.

    😃

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    • #
      Ross

      Actually no. It will be like all the major supermarkets in South Australia who installed diesel back up generators after their state wide blackout years back. Pubs and restaurants too. They will install top of the range generators that are whisper quiet. Like the ones you see at major outdoor festivals etc. Located way out the back of the supermarket, probably close to the delivery doors, so the fuel can be supplied that much easier.

      30

      • #
        Zane

        Until they ban diesel, that will work! 😄

        10

      • #
        Dennis

        During 2018 I had reason to visit a private hospital and a public hospital in Taree NSW, both were reliant on diesel generators at each site for electricity during those visits, and employees explained that the on-site generators are often used.

        20

    • #
      Annie

      I’m all for a quiet time, as a hater of loud, unecessary noise and supermarket ‘muzak’ ( one reason why I like Aldi, so quiet). However, as an older person, I need good light to read the often almost unreadable mini-print labels. Quarter-lit shopping does NOT appeal. 🙁

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  • #
    Sambar

    Thanks for your tireless watching and provision of this information Tony. I use your figures ( and logical arguments )whenever I think I have an audience.
    Sadly its a bit like going to a rock concert, the people I talk to know I’m speaking but they just don’t hear a bloody word. Truely religious in their beliefs and any suggestion that “research” might prove them wrong is just seen as me “showing off” my superiour (but wrong ) knowledge, and of course, a denier.

    I hope I’m not infringeing copy right by very blatantly plagiarising your very extensive work.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    very good, but there is no explanation of why brown coal is mined and transported to power stations and the resulting energy price has not changed, while black coal and gas are mined, transported to power stations, and the energy price has skyrocketed.

    Production costs for these energy sources have not changed, so why the spike?

    if it was renewables, then you could expect the prices for those 3 to move together.

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    • #

      We have explained this. If only you read my blog Peter? Brown coal is too unstable to transport, so it is not sold on the international market so it is obviously unaffected by international events.

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Yes Jo, I do know, but you have not explained why we must pay export prices for locally produced coal. we use 23% of all coal production locally, of which 80% of that is used for power. Major exporters like Norway, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia reserve part of their production from the export market ensuring price stability for those resources. That is my point. Allowing the export market to determine the price of locally produced and consumed resources is a capitalists wet dream. And being able to blame renewables instead is just bastardry

        now, if you can, explain why a locally produced good like coal, when consumed locally must respond to export prices – after all energy security is at risk

        If you can, I will make a donation, even though i am effectively banned

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        • #

          Peter, I have said nothing at all about the pluses and minuses of legalized domestic reserves. If we force companies to sell at lower prices domestically, we are also forgoing profits to shareholder, taxes to the government, local jobs, and all kinds of wealth generation. Maybe it works if we’ve sold off our assets stupidly to foreign entities without looking after the national security interests on that, but then foreigners won’t want to invest here as much. It’s all swings and roundabouts of government intervention. The government could allow more mining of gas and coal and increase supply, they could buy a company and run it as a non-profit, they could demand a slice of every company in lieu of royalties, or they could just use the royalties and buy the gas. We could go on and on, and without knowing a PhD worth of fine print it won’t be clear what the best answer is this week, and it might be different next week.

          I want the government to get out of the way and allow homeowners to sign up with any damn generator they want. Make the network government run, because it’s a natural monopoly, but let the people pick the generator. What % of Victorians would do a deal for 100% brown coal? Maybe 80%. Problem solved.

          If the Australian grid had less junk renewables and more reserves of brown coal or nuclear we could sell nearly all our gas overseas and reap in billions at the moment while helping our EU friends. Wouldn’t that be smarter?

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        • #
          Hannibal

          Most coal burned in Australian power stations does not compete for exports. Multiple mine mouth power stations have no real access to port and therefore export pricing, for simplicity I include all of the brown coal generators in that statement.
          Gladstone is pretty much fully exposed to market and consequently mostly running 3/6 at low loads.
          Eraring is the other main exposed Power station, but even so is supplied mostly under contracts of various term. Sourcing extra to run at higher capacity factors is a challenge as that extra coal is usually exposed to market forces. Outside of those 2, everyone else is either mine mouth, brown coal or long term contracted at lower prices.
          Every single driver of the this market meltdown (meltup ?) I can trace to braindead carbon reduction policies, not just of Aust. but globally. Many of us inside the wholesale electricity market have tried to make the warnings where possible for many years now that this would be the result – as well as the inevitable lights out situations coming, but executive level fools ignore and remove anyone ‘not on board’…
          The chickens are well and truly coming home to roost…

          10

    • #
      RickWill

      why brown coal is mined and transported to power stations and the resulting energy price has not changed

      Price for brown coal generation in the last week has been $287/MWh. A fraction less than black coal generators at $289/MWh:
      https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=7d&interval=30m

      The price is determined by the cost for the last MWh in the generating stack. It has nothing to do with the cost of generation. All generators aim to maximise profit. They set their price based on what will maximise profits based on their forecasts of supply and demand. Average price for wind is $276/Mwh simply because they are usually price takers. They are only price setters when the price is negative. That does not happen often in May when sun is low or missing and wind is variable (as always).

      20

    • #
      b.nice

      You need to educate yourself on how the NEM works. !

      00

  • #
    Furiously+Curious

    Watched some of the abc the drum last night, to see what we were in for. Mostly Uluru, but they had a bright, young, renewables entrepreneur type on, and no one blanched when he declared we were in for 10 years of sorrow during the energy transition, blaming it on lack of business’ investment or maintenance in possible stranded assets, and lack of investment in renewables. We should have dove into them 10 years ago. No one wondered if that would have put us into this situation 10 years sooner? And what has happened to the renewables are cheap refrain?

    60

    • #
      DLK

      public is in for 10+ years of pain
      the renewables sector, on the other hand, will reap mountains of gold (from ‘cheap’ energy!).
      funny how ‘saving the planet’ always comes with an inordinate price tag.

      40

    • #
      yarpos

      Probably about right considering the implications of going in, predictably failing and then backing out again.

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  • #

    Welcome to the Dark Ages.

    90

  • #

    Its time we sensible people fought back against the tide of economic vandalism. What interest is there out there about the idea of establishing a political party that gives voters the chance to call out this nonsense?
    It seems that the most appealing alternatives have linked their flag to a particular colour. So with that in mind we could be called ” The Greys “.

    60

  • #
    Zane

    The Chinese, by which I mean the entity known as the People’s Republic of China, must be laughing their Maoist boots off at the silliness of our politics in Australia.

    140

    • #
      el+gordo

      The clowns in Beijing can laugh their socks off at democracy in general, but its still better than their lot.

      40

    • #
      el+gordo

      ‘In short, for Xi Jinping to fulfil his ambitions to give the world a common destiny, he expects Australia and our Pacific neighbours to abandon our existing security alliances and become tribute states of a new Imperial China.’ (Keith Windschuttle/Quadrant)

      20

  • #
    Dennis

    Natural gas pricing for domestic consumers was in trouble as soon as PM Gillard and Treasurer Swan signed the export agreement.

    The transition to renewable energy required the owners of power stations and transmission lines cooperation, to privatise those state assets and to give planning approval for wind and solar installations, but the starting gun was Gillard Labor’s RET and now several billions of dollars every year in direct subsidies to wind and solar energy supply businesses.

    Electricity pricing rises were assured after SA became the first State to approve renewable energy projects and the Labor State Government arranged for the demolition of power Bustation public assets to ensure that they could not be re-commissioned. VIC Labor closed Hazlewood power station and removed about 20 per cent of generating capacity in that State.

    Coalition State Governments inherited the transition to renewable energy and privitisation of state assets, but cannot escape criticism for becoming involved and even pushing for a renewables future and showing no interest in supporting extension of existing coal fired power station operations or seeking investment in new HELE replacements.

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  • #
    Dennis

    It is very important to know the areas of responsibility and powers of each level of government in Australia.

    Supply of electricity, gas, water is State Government responsibility first and foremost, planning approval processing for new ventures is State Government responsibility.

    At the beginning of the transition to so called renewable energy it was State owned and operated assets, power stations and transmission lines, privatised or leased, or demolished.

    31

    • #
      David Maddison

      But it was the Federal Government that signed us up to the Paris Accords and started the whole mess. Plus Morrison had three years to get us out of Paris and he failed to do so.

      40

      • #
        Dennis

        Actually the Kyoto Agreement late 1990s started the emissions reduction, and the Howard Government made it very clear that the target they accepted would be achieved without damaging the economy, and they succeeded on both commitments. In fact Australia exceeded the target and is one of the very few signatory nations that did.

        The Paris Agreement for emissions reduction is on track to be achieved by 2030, possibly exceed target again, and with no damage to the economy, in fact right now 3.5% GDP growth and the OECD forecasts 4.1% for Australia soon, unemployment lowest since 1970s at 3.9%

        The point is that the Coalition realises that Australia cannot avoid cooperating to some extent and for both Agreements the targets set were considered to be achievable, realistic without economic damage.

        At COP26 Glasgow the Morrison Government refused to increase the Paris target or reduce the target timing from 2030 to 2025, and refused to stop coal mining as the IPCC demanded.

        The aspirational goal for net zero emissions was not a commitment, no agreement signed. And based on development of new technology, conditional on that being achieved and no damage to the economy, target date 2050.

        PM Morrison was right when he referred to global political considerations including private sector pushing for Australia to cooperate.

        And now the new Federal Government has announced net zero emissions by 2030. The Coalition refused to ban ICEV and mandate EV relying on the free market and consumers to decide. The Coalition also established an end date for RET and subsidies being 2030. They changed company laws to force electricity suppliers to compete on prices rather than AEMO auction system and many flaws. And they did what they could to convince the States to approve four gas generators and one HELE coal fired power station. And for gas they did make some changes to the Gillard-Swan natural gas export agreement, but were restricted because of compensation claims potential for breaking or changing what was agreed. But of course the mainly left leaning media did not publicise these iniatives.

        But based on Gillard Labor’s RET and subsidies the transition to renewables commenced, with carbon tax and renewable energy surcharge on electricity bills that the Abbott Government abolished, and they also managed to gain Parliament support for a small RET reduction.

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  • #

    LOL. The previous LayBore Government left a few time bombs with unfunded promises (NDIS for example) for the incoming Libs to deal with. Now it looks like the Libs have left a Nuclear time bomb with the Electricity “Non Market” for Albo and his mates to deal with. Priceless………………………………

    20

  • #
    LG

    How does one profit from this? Is it worth investing with companies that have coal assets if there’ll be a “snap back” to coal eventually when the renewable farce all comes tumbling down?

    00

  • #
    Dennis

    At 11 pm last night the AEMO Dashboard listed renewable energy supply as follows;

    Solar @ zero per cent (normal overnight of course).

    Wind @ 6 per cent.

    Hydro @ 15 per cent

    Albo Labor & the dark Greens want to achieve 80 per cent from renewables by 2030, just seven and a half more years.

    How?

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    • #
      David Maddison

      How?

      Clearly it is impossible to use unreliables and maintain our present standard of living, which the Left call “unsustainable”.

      The only way it can be done is by reducing electricity demand by shutting down remaining industry and aluminium smelters.

      Plus making electricity so expensive people will literally freeze in the dark, except for the Elites.

      It’s about decivilisation. That’s the objective.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Albo Labor & the dark Greens want to achieve 80 per cent from renewables by 2030, just seven and a half more years.

      Now that is funny!!

      I thought Albo was aiming for 43% by 2030 but might be wrong. Either way it is funny.

      I am prepared to wager Albo will not be PM in 2030. His demise will be even faster if he actually tries to get 43% of Australian energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. Australia got 6.9% of its energy from “renewable” sources in 2020 which include hydro and biomass.
      https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian%20Energy%20Statistics%202021%20Energy%20Update%20Report.pdf
      43% by 2030 is an impossible dream and will be Albo’s nightmare..

      30

      • #
        Dennis

        Australian renewables could triple by 2030

        Labor’s Powering Australia Plan aims to see 82% of the nation’s power derived from renewable energy by 2030, helping Australia cut emissions by 43%.

        10

    • #
      yarpos

      How? just talk nameplate, job done

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE

    The Elites probably know that:

    1) Most people cannot afford an EV.

    2) Even if they could, if everyone swapped their internal combustion engine vehicle for electric, a “green” grid running on unreliables will not have the capacity to charge all those electric cars every night.

    3) Gasoline taxes will be increased to “save the planet”.

    Hence the non-Elites will be rendered immobile, maybe with a limited capacity on public transport to travel to and from work if you cannot work at home.

    Food and supplies will be delivered by the already developing slave army doing home deliveries of groceries, fast foods and other supplies. Drones will come soon.

    The main objective is to render the population largely immobile. Otherwise they may congregate and protest and demand freedom, just like happened in Vicdanistan during the lockups and which was brutally suppressed by the paramilitary police.

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    • #

      David writes this: (my bolding here)

      Even if they could, if everyone swapped their internal combustion engine vehicle for electric…..

      Swapped their vehicle.

      Here we will now have a time when anything fuelled by fossil fuels is absolutely worthless, and there is no future whatsoever for ICE vehicles.

      The ‘trade in’ value of your ICE vehicle on an electric vehicle is approximately ZERO.

      There will be NO swapping your ICE vehicle, even if it’s a High end Benz or Roller, or,well, whatever, it will be worthless, as will be Veteran, Vintage, and Classic cars, not worth a cracker.

      Now imagine telling EVERYONE that they have a worthless car.

      Now cue the Government for a buyback (cash for clunkers) and then funding the disposal of millions and millions of ICE vehicles.

      Yeah! Right!

      Please excuse my cynicism.

      Tony.

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      • #
        Dennis

        A wonderful business opportunity for EV investors, pay junk trade-in price for ECEV and export them to African nations, Asia, South America, as complete vehicles or as spare parts.

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    DLK

    question for the teal-green-alp axis: ‘if renewable energy is so cheap, why does it cost so much?’

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    • #
      Dennis

      And why do investors need special taxpayer subsidies in addition to company tax deductions for expenses incurred in earning taxable income?

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Fourteen boats off the port of NovoCastria late this afternoon waiting to pick up something: ole king coal perhaps?

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  • #
    Dennis

    Chamber of Commerce spokesman has the answers, fast track to renewable energy which is cheaper and new transmission lines to better suit renewable energy transmission.

    What hope is there?

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  • #
    Dennis

    RET + special subsidies created during the Gillard minority alliance government term from 2010 and now in 2022 even business people seem to be unaware of the sales and marketing deception used by renewable energy promotors.

    Quoting Nameplate Capacity and ignoring Capacity Factor which is of course the operational delivery factor.

    Even State Government claim percentage of renewable energy as Nameplate capacity.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Engineers have the capacity to calculate the cost of electricity from the various renewable energy platforms prior to construction and implementation, but these facts are hidden, deliberately.

      All we get is the rubbish from the cover-ups.

      Whole of cycle: planning, construction, plant operation, delivery and eventual dismantling of the system must all be costed.

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      • #
        Dennis

        Yes, like coal fired power station accounted working life to be written off against tax liability usually fifty years.

        Wind and solar installations maybe average twenty years so to achieve sixty years original equipment replaced two times.

        Noting that correctly maintained a power station could generate for eighty years or more.

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    • #
      Dennis

      Huge difference “red thumb” between;

      Nameplate Capacity 100 MW

      Capacity Factor at best 35 MW or 30 MW

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  • #
    Honk R Smith

    It’s Putin’s fault.
    Just in case you guys aren’t up on the latest non-disinformation.
    This is an official US Government explanation.
    And based on Science.

    (Oh and BTW, Science has informed us Americans that he/she/they will resign if Trump is re-elected. Science will be 85. It will be a shame to see such a stellar career ended in it’s prime. The next pandemic could sweep over us and we will have no way of knowing.)

    Oh, and the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in 5 years.

    Plus I think calling it Monkey Pox is speciesist, it should be called Marginalized Hominid Pox … MHP 22.

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  • #
    KevJ

    Yes..it’s all the Libs fault. Plus rising cost of coal and gas plus outages at several plants…

    Their abc.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-26/benchmark-power-prices-electricity-bills-to-soar-australia/101098128

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  • #
    CHRIS

    If we have to rely on solar, wind and storage batteries for our electricity supply, then STORE UP ON CANDLES!! The so-called “renewable energy” alternatives are a great big joke, which, unfortunately, will affect all Australians.

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  • #
    Zigmaster

    When observing rapidly rising electricity prices one should remember Obama’s famous speech in 2008 when talking about his green energy plan electricity prices by necessity would need to skyrocket. Rising prices are not a glitch but a feature of the transition but politicians realised pretty quickly that such a message is politically difficult to sell. So ever since with the help of a compliant press and dishonest modelling they have created the myth that renewables would be cheaper and create more jobs both obvious lies. The refusal to remove subsidies says it all. Obamas words are true. If you want to replace a cheap energy system with a more expensive one you have to make the cheap system more expensive. As each coal fire plant closes those higher prices become locked in.
    The fortunate thing for renewables are the voting public is pretty gullible and keep in power those that perpetuate such lies. If it was just the cost then governments could get away with this deception by subsidising the poor and disadvantaged in society’s energy bills and this band aid would keep the critics quiet .Who needs a manufacturing industry anyway. Even if we had cheap electricity we couldn’t compete with China anyway. But if the grid collapses and power outages and power rationing become the norm maybe then our voters will see sense. Currently only the minor parties prosecute the case to stop this mad renewables fixation and it will take blackouts and failures to impact voters minds. What one realises that whilst climate and energy was fought at a federal level it basically the decisions at state level that make real difference. But even at state level none of the majors differentiate on energy policy so we need blackouts and rationing to focus politicians minds. Until then unfortunately this insanity will continue.

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  • #
    Hannibal

    Q4 NSW flat is up $55 today. Last at $275/MWh… Thats nearly to diesel fuel pricing levels..

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  • #
    Hannibal

    Most coal burned in Australian power stations does not compete for exports. Multiple mine mouth power stations have no real access to port and therefore export pricing, for simplicity I include all of the brown coal generators in that statement.
    Gladstone is pretty much fully exposed to market and consequently mostly running 3/6 at low loads.
    Eraring is the other main exposed Power station, but even so is supplied mostly under contracts of various term. Sourcing extra to run at higher capacity factors is a challenge as that extra coal is usually exposed to market forces. Outside of those 2, everyone else is either mine mouth, brown coal or long term contracted at lower prices.
    Every single driver of the this market meltdown (meltup ?) I can trace to braindead carbon reduction policies, not just of Aust. but globally. Many of us inside the wholesale electricity market have tried to make the warnings where possible for many years now that this would be the result – as well as the inevitable lights out situations coming, but executive level fools ignore and remove anyone ‘not on board’…
    The chickens are well and truly coming home to roost…

    20