Recent Posts


Tuesday Unthreaded

9.6 out of 10 based on 7 ratings

The new killer called “Unknown Causes”

For most things that kill us there is a clock like regularity with deaths in a province as big as Alberta. Year after year dementia kills about 2,000 people, for example. But then there was Covid-19 and a disease called Unknown Causes. Wow.

Unknown causes of death killed more people in Alberta than anything else did

Despite billions of dollars in spending, somehow modern medicine is seven times less likely to know what someone died of than it was two years ago. Does anything else capture just how far medicine has advanced during the pandemic (all the way back to 1910?).

That’s a pretty significant signal there in 2021. In the world we thought we lived in, governments would have arranged a SWAT team of medicos to investigate, the opposition would be baying from the side and the media would be all over it. And the rollout of new experimental medical interventions would be halted immediately.

Sometimes things are so crazy-strange that satire makes more sense. Here’s the excellent JP Sears:

““Good Evening. People are dropping like flies from a mysterious killer called ‘unknown case of death.’ So tonight we’re bringing you a special report on this unknown case of death killer so we can steer your thinking in the right direction. “

Via the GatewayPundit.

Laugh til we cry. Also known as SADS and The Crime of the Century

REFERENCE: Alberta statistics

h/t ColA and David Maddison, Scott of the Pacific.

*Unknown deaths in 2018 were not listed as “unknown”. There was a (blank) category of 550 deaths which I presumed was “unknown” but which may or may not apply. Prior years didn’t even have a “blank”.

10 out of 10 based on 84 ratings

Monday Open Thread

10 out of 10 based on 8 ratings

Political Correctness is for girls — the bubble of Woke has a grip on young women

There’s been a transformation in the last 6 years — the polarization between attitudes of young men and women is expanding like a bubble.

The new Gallup results suggesting the suddenly as many as 44% of young women identify as liberal but only 25% of young men do. It’s a gaping 19% maw. Eric Kaufman shows that its not because more women are going to university now, but mostly because more young women are Woke. The most important predictive factor in a thirteenfold (wow) kind of way, was simply whether they opposed controversial speakers on topics like BLM, abortion and  LGBTQ-etc. In other words, it’s expanding like a designer fashion trend. And one so weak it has to hide the competition. It’s not a generational shift when half the generation is avoiding it. That’s good news. Bubbles will pop.

Wokeness targets women — offering them victimhood-candy and someone to blame, but almost always at the expense of men. Not surprisingly men are not turning up for their lecture on toxic masculinity. Think Gillette. Young men still want to impress young women, and being “Woke” can get the girl, but even that’s not enough to adopt the ideology.

Spread the word. Once the news gets out that political correctness is a girlie thing, and strong men stand against it, the pendulum will swing.

Why is the political gender gap growing?

Eric Kaufman, The Post

Recently, the centrist pundit Matthew Yglesias tweeted the historic time series of Gallup surveys on political ideology among Americans aged 18 to 29 (shown below).

The graphs demonstrate a growing ideological gap between the sexes, with a rapid increase in the share of “liberals” among women but not men. As polarisation deepens, fewer young people are calling themselves centrist or “don’t know” and picking an ideology, but only among women are they disproportionately moving Left.

Women are more politically correct, woke, Graph. Poll

….

By 2016, a record 42% of women identified as liberal, versus 28% for men. I lack access to the raw HERI data for subsequent years but the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) surveys of 55,000 undergraduates in the top 150 colleges in 2020 and 2021 show that 61% of women lean liberal compared to 44% of men, a whopping 17-point gender gap.

…what underlies the astounding gender divergence in youth attitudes? Essentially, it appears to stem from a wokeness divide. In the FIRE survey, when you control for opposition to allowing controversial speakers (on BLM, abortion and trans rights) on campus, the statistical effect of gender on ideology collapses thirteenfold in statistical power.

Political Correctness is for girls:

Kaufman points at a 2020 survey which shows how strong the effect is in teenage girls and women up to age 25.

Political Correctness poll. graph.Once young women settle down with a man, the fashions change.

9.7 out of 10 based on 60 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

10 out of 10 based on 13 ratings

The latest from the front lines of the European Energy Crisis

Power and gas prices in Germany more than doubled in just two months, with year-ahead electricity at a blazing 570 Euro per megawatt-hour.  Two years ago, it was 40 euros. It’s summer but electric heaters sales are already up 1000 percent and online searches for Firewood are running hot. In the UK — householders are facing bills in the order of £5000 a year — (like $10,000, after tax) people are described as being in “pre-panic mode” already. Some are starting to turn off freezers, giving up toast and showering every second day. Shops and Pubs are closing, consumer confidence is at an all time record low, the most depressed in the last 48 years consumer confidence has been measured for.

European Power Smashes Records as Energy Crisis Intensifies

by Todd Gillespie, Bloomberg

This week’s prices are “unbelievable,” analysts at Energi Danmark wrote in a note. “The rally on the gas and coal market and the very high spot prices we see this week have given the already elevated market further momentum.”

German year-ahead power, a benchmark for Europe, is on a nine-day rising streak. The contract rose 6.1% to a record 570 euros ($573) per megawatt-hour, with French futures jumping as much as 2.8% to 720 euros. Europe year-ahead coal futures hit a record $311.50 a ton, while carbon-emission permits traded at all-time highs.

French German Electricity Prices

For obvious reasons, Germans are worried about winter already:

Germany’s Growing Energy Supply Uncertainty: Electric Heater Sales Up 1000%…In The Summertime!

Already the media are reporting that electric heaters are flying off the store shelves at an unprecedented rate – in the summertime! For example, online daily The Hamburger Abendblatt here reports: “Electric heater online retailers and DIY stores report explosion in demand – increases of up to 1000 percent.”

Germany Risks a Factory Exodus as Energy Prices Bite Hard

“Energy inflation is way more dramatic here than elsewhere,” said Ralf Stoffels, chief executive officer of BIW Isolierstoffe GmbH, a maker of silicone parts for the auto, aerospace and appliance industries. “I fear a gradual de-industrialization of the German economy.”    …there’s evidence that Germany’s industrial position is slipping. In the first six months of this year, the volume of chemical imports rose by about 27% from the same period last year, according to government data analyzed by consultant Oxford Economics. Simultaneously, chemical production fell, with output in June down almost 8% from December.
German industry may be wrecked but the German government still can’t decide whether to close the last three nuclear power plants.

Welcome to the Clean Green Future in London, 2022

The Victorian lifestyle is making a comeback.

Power off, panic on in British energy crisis

By Jacquelin Magnay, The Australian

People in Cornwall have been turning off their freezers, to the alarm of health officials warning of food poisoning. In Newcastle, food charities have been flooded with requests for non-perishable items that don’t require turning on the stove.

And in London at my house, the hot water has been off for the past month with showering scheduled for immediately after a sweat-inducing run in the park. A neighbour has given up toast and community groups ­advise people to vacuum the backs of their fridges to ensure they work as efficiently as possible and to shower every second day.

A pre-panic mode has struck households across Britain as a cost-of-living crisis approaches uncharted territory.

Easy to see why people might be jittery at these prices. How many houses will burn down when people cook by candlelight?

Keep reading  →

9.6 out of 10 based on 98 ratings

The latest from the frontlines of US Culture

It’s a bad moment in Civilization but it’s a great day in parody and satire

I wish we all could leave California now

The Wikipedia page “California Exodus“shows that  in the last decade there has been a net loss of 1.2 million people domestically. That’s from a state with about 39m people.

In related news — the latest tweet of the LAPD

Best wishes to our friends in California.

10 out of 10 based on 33 ratings

Friday Open Thread

10 out of 10 based on 5 ratings

19 US States fight back against BlackRock the Political Climate Police disguised as a Monster Investment Fund

 Finally 19 US States are hitting back at BlackRock the financial behemoth, and not a day too soon.

A light in the tunnel…

By a pure dollar reckoning, BlackRock is the third largest “foreign entity” in the world, after the USA and China, but its core business, its reason for existing is a contradiction: it claims to be an asset manager but acts like a political power. With neither citizens, land nor an army, it’s a kind of toxic financial bubble on a roll — part illusion, but still swallowing economies, minds and electricity grids.

BlackRock is supposedly investing funds on behalf of its customers while using those same funds to promote Woke political agendas that its management may like, but that its own customers may disagree with. It’s a totalitarian force that consumes democratic choices by force of money. Finally some state legislators are calling out the contradiction. Does BlackRock serve its customers or “the management of BlackRock”?

BlackRock is enormous, but it’s not untouchable, and if retirees and State pension plans pulled their money and filed writs for breaches of law, the activist-agency could vanish overnight. BlackRock has $10 trillion in assets to wield as an activist hammer, but those assets mostly belong to other people. BlackRock can only keep weaponizing that money as long the the other people let them. Underneath that big financial hammer is a $152 billion dollars in total assets belonging to BlackRock, and that’s shrunk from $240 billion dollars worth back in 2014.

Send this to your elected representative, your retirement fund and ask about their own “Fiduciary Duty” and “Duty of Care”.

Pay attention to your retirement funds. Money left unattended may be used against you…

Time to boycott the boycotters

Leading the way, West Virginia has announced last month that it will not do business with any firms that boycott the fossil fuels industry — which means Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. These companies are now ineligible for state banking contracts worth about $18 billion a year. Brilliant.

“At the end of the day, all we want is for banks to act like banks,” [Treasurer Riley Moore] told the Washington Free Beacon, adding it would be hard for the state to continue functioning without the coal industry.

In June, Moore gave the firms 30 days to provide the Mountain State’s treasury with proof they supported the coal, oil, and natural gas industries. “I simply cannot stand by and allow financial institutions working against West Virginia’s critical industries to profit off the very funds their policies attempt to diminish,” Moore said.

–Washington Free Beacon

Now 19 State Attorney Generals have written  “Dear Mr Fink”

Billions of dollars of US State Pension funds are wrapped up with BlackRock. They don’t have to be.

This is round two of an exchange between the State AG’s and BlackRock. Here the state AG’s write to Mr Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, Inc. on August 4th, 2022 in reply to his letter claiming BlackRock is neutral, and just engaged in climate dialogue.

 Dear Mr Fink,

Based on the facts currently available to us, BlackRock appears to use the hard-earned money of our states’ citizens to circumvent the best possible return on investment, as well as their vote. BlackRock’s past public commitments indicate that it has used citizens’ assets to pressure companies to comply with  international agreements such as the Paris Agreement that force the phase-out of fossil fuels, increase  energy prices, drive inflation, and weaken the national security of the United States. These agreements  have never been ratified by the United States Senate. The Senators elected by the citizens of this country determine which international agreements have the force of law, not BlackRock.

There are six key points (as translated by me, with a few quotes):

  • 1. Neutrality ––  BlackRock claims to be neutral on energy generation yet actively campaigns to accelerate “Net Zero”. They held 2,300 meetings with companies on climate, and took action against 53 companies with another 191 put “on watch”. The AG’s warn that BlackRocks agenda would covertly convert states core index portfolios into “ESG Funds”.

“Rather than being a spectator betting on the game, BlackRock appears to have put on a quarterback jersey and actively taken the field.”

  • 2. Dialogue —  BlackRock claims it is only talking to climate advocacy organizations “on sustainability issues important to our clients.” But under their state laws, the AG’s, who are clients of BlackRock, remind BlackRock that the only desired dialogue on energy transitions would be on “how to maximize financial returns”. Saying the unthinkable, they remind BlackRock that that sort of discussion would “include the opportunistic purchasing of fossil fuel assets discarded by companies seeking to meet net zero commitments.”  Naturally, the climate advocacy groups don’t talk about that. Instead Climate Action 100+ and GFANZ discuss how to ““alter the planet’s climate trajectory.”

 

  • 3. Duty of Loyalty — Either BlackRock is working to maximize state pension funds or it isn’t – no mixed motives are allowed. Taking action on climate change above and beyond legal requirements is a rampant violation of this duty:

BlackRock’s commitment to the financial return of state pensions should be undivided. Many of our laws state that a fiduciary must “discharge [their] duties solely in the interest of the participants and beneficiaries . . . for the exclusive purposes of . . . providing benefits to participants and their beneficiaries; and . . . defraying reasonable expenses of administering the system.” The stated reasons for your actions around promoting net zero, the Paris Agreement, or taking action on climate change indicate rampant violations of this duty, otherwise known as acting with “mixed motives.” As one commentator has put it: “Acting with mixed motives triggers an irrebuttable presumption of wrongdoing, full stop.” Whether mixed motives arise from a desire to save the world or attract investment from European or left-leaning pension funds, is ultimately irrelevant to the legal violation. Investors have wide latitude over their own money, but our state pensions must be invested only to earn a financial return.

Shadow of Climate Money, Jo Nova

 

 

  • 4. Duty of Care — What if BlackRock are betting the wrong way with all that money? BlackRock assume that the “energy transition” is a done deal when it is falling over in so many places and many of BlackRock’s own predictions were flat out wrong. On May 24th BlackRock said that the Russian invasion would accelerate investments in renewables in Europe where “energy security goals are aligned with decarbonization”. Yet within a month of that, Germany was restarting coal plants. Meanwhile BlackRock voted to penalize the Board of Directors of Fortum for investing in coal, which would have been the right financial call. Given this incompetence, the State Attorney Generals wonder if BlackRock can predict worldwide energy demand decades in advance? Don’t we all?

In the Wall Street Journal the Arizona AG Mr. Brnovich, is scathing: BlackRock is neither neutral, nor likely to succeed

If asset managers have committed to push portfolio companies to attain net zero, how is the choice of approaching the “energy transition” left to the client? Even if BlackRock allows clients to vote their shares, BlackRock has pressured public companies long before any vote occurs. It appears that all clients buying BlackRock funds are forced to support ESG whether they like it or not. These actions raise more questions.

Blackrock, CO2 emissions, NetZero

BlackRock is betting on the Green line…

The diagram nearby, taken from a BlackRock report, shows that governments are neither implementing nor pledging policies that would achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Would a prudent fiduciary bet everything on the green line?

Perhaps the trajectory for net zero will change. Perhaps a U.S. president with 40% approval ratings will build enduring majorities in Congress with a coalition that supports destroying the American energy sector and, in turn, perpetuating high energy prices, low economic growth, and inflation. Perhaps leftist Democrats will attain majorities sufficient to enact the Paris Agreement, impose a carbon tax, hold the presidency for decades, and subsidize green products until a “thousand Solyndras bloom.” Perhaps the world will ignore aggression by Russia and China to stay on track with emissions targets. Perhaps the U.S. will cheerfully shovel $8 trillion into China by 2030 for green investments, which is the amount BlackRock’s public documents state China needs to keep on track for net zero 2050.

  • 5. Antitrust –– BlackRock is a member of both Climate Action 100+ and GFANZ. These are both clubs which brag about how many trillions of investment funds they can coordinate to “transform the economy to Net Zero”. What looks like a cabal, acts like a cabal and stinks like a mafia stitch up?

Group boycotts, restraining trade, or concerted refusals to deal, “clearly run afoul of” Section 1 of the Sherman Act. Section 1 prohibits “[e]very . . . combination . . . , or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce.”

BlackRock’s actions appear to intentionally restrain and harm the competitiveness of the energy markets. Disturbingly, a survey last year from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas asked: “Which of the following is the primary reason that publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth despite high oil prices?” Sixty percent of respondents referenced a form of “investor pressure.”

  • 6. Energy Boycotts — Many US states now prohibit boycotts of energy companies. BlackRock says it doesn’t but it also touts its ability to penalize directors by voting them out if they don’t reduce their carbon intensity. Given the price of coal, and Europe’s sudden desire to use it, this appears to be directly contrary to the financial interests of the energy company, and BlackRocks clients too.

The key words are fiduciary duty and antitrust

At the core of the pushback is the idea that the global guardian of citizens funds is supposed to be investing their capital for the best return possible. It’s not supposed to be using their money to pursue Woke, activist agenda’s or punish companies according to the personal whims or profits of the management team.

Spread the word.

h/t to Marcel, Old Ozzie, thanks for extra tips from MP, aspnaz, joseph, David Maddison, beowulf. So much more to come.

10 out of 10 based on 107 ratings

A great moment in Gender Science

The same people that tell us to “Follow The Science” on climate change can’t predict what a woman is.

Or if they can, they’re too afraid to say so.

It’s not science, it’s just bullies at work.

9.5 out of 10 based on 105 ratings

Thursday Open Thread

8.4 out of 10 based on 10 ratings

Like a Banker-Belt-n-Road plan, BlackRock give Australia batteries we don’t need with ESG strings attached

Some nice Banker people have turned up to give us the batteries we need to save the world. What could possibly go wrong?

The Leviathan BlackRock will soon spend a billion dollars on big batteries in Australia. It is the largest asset manager in the world — with some $10 Trillion in assets to direct. To put that kind of power in perspective,  the entire GDP of Australia is about $1.4 Trillion, so if BlackRock chose to throw its weight around, to hypothetically, improve its chances of making a profit, it won’t need an army, it just needs to hint “nice business you have there”, and the path will presumably clear. There are only two countries on Earth with larger GDP’s  — America and China.

If BlackRock was a country the Foreign Investment Review Board of Australia would need to pay attention to potential conflicts of interest. But as it is, BlackRock flies under that radar while it bullies other companies and governments to do things to “save the world” which also happen to make profits for BlackRock.

If say, the voters of Australia voted against Climate Action as electricity bills drew blood, it’s hard to imagine BlackRock wouldn’t be pulling strings to keep the government subsidy train pointed at its own tunnel. It would effectively be working against the interests of Australians. While all investors are supposed to work for their shareholders, most investors don’t wield the kind of power that’s larger than our GDP.

US Giant BlackRock to Invest $1 Billion Into Australian Battery Projects

Daniel Teng, The Epoch Times

U.S. investment giant BlackRock will invest $1 billion (US$701 million) into Australian battery projects after agreeing to acquire Melbourne-based Akaysha Energy.

Its largest project is the 1,600 megawatt Orana battery in Wellington, central-west New South Wales, which can provide around eight hours of energy storage.

Given that BlackRock is equivalent to a major foreign power, shouldn’t the government be asking harder questions before it opens the door to an entity that lobbies like a political activist, serves foreign investors, and shamelessly meddles in national policies?

h/t Colin, Dave B,  aspnaz

 

9.8 out of 10 based on 109 ratings

US Queen-of-Witchdoctor-Congress legislates so Mother Earth does not get angry

The Energy debate in the most powerful nation on Earth is nothing more than stone age animism. Or perhaps it’s not that sophisticated. It’s just a kindergarten story.

The Democrats are the new Religious Caste. They have the hot-line to God, to Gaia, and luckily for Earth, at the eleventh hour they have managed to send a smoke-signal to Mother Earth to calm her down.

Nothing is too inane, too simplistic or too banal:

“How can they vote against The Planet? Mother Earth Gets Angry from Time to Time and this legislation will help us address all of that”. –– Nancy Pelosi

Marc Morano asks: “Will human sacrifices be next?“.

Surely yes, and the next one is on the way. If they can just jail Trump it will stop the seas rising.

How indeed can anyone vote against the Planet. Say hello to the Rocks of Democracy…

For a couple of hundred years we rose above the witchdoctor spells and promises of shaman.

9.8 out of 10 based on 105 ratings

Eat crickets and stop droughts

Cheddar Cheese Puffs made with cricket flour are already here (in Canada anyway).

The company that sells the Cricket Puffs is called ActuallyFoods, possibly because BugFoods, or Pests-for-dinner might not be a winner.

Worth noting: “People who are allergic to Shellfish may be allergic to Crickets”.

They are professional marketeers. Putting cricket flour into the junk food category first is a way to sneak it in and quietly normalize it. People buying junk foods at the supermarket probably aren’t reading the ingredients list too closely, and people eating puffs at parties definitely aren’t.

Remember eating crickets will change jet streams

Or at least make you feel saintly:

SUSTAINABLE

We prioritize the planet just as much as we do our health. Our superfoods produce less emissions and waste than traditional health foods, so they’re an easy choice for eco-friendly eaters.

This is food with all the fashionable buzz-words:

Powered by sustainably farmed, organic crickets, our puffs are high in protein, rich in vitamins such as B12, and a natural source of prebiotics.

I note these crickets are not free-range.

At $5.99 a bag they will be aimed at the wealthy-Greens seeking self-advertising or penance. Though not necessarily the vegan ones. Strict vegans will have a dilemma since insects are technically part of the animal kingdom. The Vegan Society warns that honey isn’t vegan because it exploits the bees. So presumably slaughtering millions of innocent crickets won’t fit the bill either.

The Keto-crowd also won’t be happy because the puffs are about 50% carbohydrate. Who will be happy?

h/t David Maddison, John Connor II

9.9 out of 10 based on 65 ratings

Monday Open Thread

9 out of 10 based on 23 ratings

The 1540 Megadrought in Europe: Rhine ran dry, fires burned, and no one blamed coal or beef steak

Despite the news that the River Rhine is in a crisis due to “climate change” it has happened before, and many times.  There are rocks in European rivers called Hunger Stones where people carved messages to mark the depth of the pain in the droughts. There are historical records of the Rhine drying up in spots so badly that people could walk across it with dry feet. In 1540 wells ran dry that had never run out of water. The whole decade was horrible, and in 1835 in Transylvania people were so hungry they ate dead cats and dogs.

History is being actively wiped out because it never serves the narrative.  Megadroughts were longer and deeper in the last 2000 years.  The whole decade of the 1530s was filled with drought but the worst drought was 1540.

Hell on Earth: the European drought of 1540

Patty Jansen

In the summer of 1540, the people searched ever more desperate for drinking water. Even a meter and a half under the normal water table in Switzerland was not a drop of water to be found, noted Hans Salat at the time. Spring and upwellings that had never faltered now lay dry. Others were strictly guarded and water was drawn according to a time schedule. Thousands of people along the River Ruhr died of poisoning from dirty water.

These messages carved in hunger stones go back as far as 1417.  The message was essentially “If you see me, weep”. Famine was coming.

Hunger Stone, Elba River, Drought. Photo

View of the Hunger Stone on the Elbe in Děčín. .

 

 

Imagine 600 years of droughts:

The stone marks the low water levels of the Elbe with different dates. The oldest legible inscription dates from 1616. Older inscriptions (1417, 1473) were rubbed off over time by ships at anchor. The stone is also inscribed with the saying “Girl, do not cry and do not complain, when it is dry, spray the field”. This saying was probably made in 1938 by the pump manufacturer Frantisek Sigmund. The saying was based on the older saying “If you see me, then cry”. The Deciner Hungerstein is one of the oldest hydrological monuments on the Elbe.

Even climate scientists hold 1540 in awe:

Europe’s devastating millennial drought

Andrew Frey, Spektrum (translated by Google.)

Eleven months without rain, a million deaths – in 1540, a previously and since unprecedented drought devastated all of Europe. Can she repeat herself?

The result: For eleven months there was almost no rain, the temperature was five to seven degrees above the normal values ​​of the 20th century, the temperature must have climbed above 40 degrees in midsummer. Countless forest areas in Europe went up in flames, acrid smoke obscured the sunlight, and not a single thunderstorm was recorded for the entire summer of 1540.

 July brought such a terrible scorching heat that the churches sent out prayers of supplication while the Rhine, Elbe and Seine could be waded through without getting wet. Where water still flowed, the warm broth turned green, and fish floated in it keel up. The level of Lake Constance dropped to a record level, and Lindau was even connected to the mainland. The surface water soon evaporated completely, the floors burst open, some drying cracks were so large that a foot could fit in them.

And the groundwater dropped too: in the Swiss canton of Lucerne, desperate people tried to dig for water in a river bed, but found not a single drop even at a depth of one and a half meters. Christian Pfister therefore estimates that only a quarter to a maximum of a third of the usual amount of rain came from the sky that year.

In Würzburg in 1540 the grapes were ripe early but dried up and raisin-like, so the winegrowers pressed them anyway and invented the “late harvest”. It became a legendary harvest and four bottles still remain unopened. Some wine experts opened one of the batch in 1961 when it was 421 years old. They remarked on the flavour with some amazement but said it lasted only a few moments before it oxidized and “became vinegar in our glasses”.

The drought of 1539-1540 was extensive and severe

RAinfall, drought, Europe 1540.

The 1540 summer precipitation totals in Europe expressed as percentage deviations (× 100) from the 1961–1990 mean; (b) summer Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1540 in Europe according to OWDA . (Brázdil et al)

Fires, famine, dust, water mills ran out of water, and people walked across some parts of the Rhine

Severe heat and drought in summer and autumn afflicted Silesia, where there was practically no rain for 6 months. Many streams dried up and the water in the River Oder turned green. There were frequent forest fires and livestock suffered from hunger and thirst (Büsching, 1819). Similarly, severe heat, forest fires, poor harvest, shortages, and famine were mentioned for Bohemia, Silesia, and Lusatia (Gomolcke, 1737). In Greater Poland, summer and autumn were also very dry; it did not rain until the beginning of winter. Rivers were exceedingly low, brooks, ponds, and wells dried up and the land was desiccated to dust (Rojecki et al., 1965).

… water levels were low everywhere; it was even possible to ride or walk across the River Rhine. Brazdil et al

Best horror story goes to the 1535 famine in Transylvania

So great was the hunger that people of both sexes and all ages lost their minds, walking around almost naked and consuming “unclean things”. Bethlen also mentioned cannibalism. Thousands of people starved to death. Corpses could be encountered on the streets, their mouths full of grass (Bethlen, 1782). In Făgăraş, desperate poor people turned to eating dead dogs and cats (Trauschenfels, 1860).

When streams and rivers fell or dried out, it became difficult or impossible to grind grain in regions that relied upon water mills. For example, the dry summer of 1536 forced the Erfurt municipality to consider the creation of a Rossmühle, a mill powered by horses (von Falckenstein, 1738). Brazdil et al

The driest decade of the past 5 centuries

A New “Drought Atlas” Tracks Europe’s Extreme Weather Through History

Sarah Zielinski, The Smithsonian Magazine

Reconstructions based on documentary data indicate that the summers of 1531–1540 were the driest summer decade in central Europe of the past 5 centuries…

…during the extremely hot, dry summer of 1540 in the Netherlands, the water levels in rivers were so low that people could cross substantial rivers such as the Lys, the Scheldt, the Meuse, and the Rhine with “dry feet” (Descamps, 1852).

This “Drought Atlas” is largely based on tree rings, with all their confounded flaws, but at least it’s the same proxy all the way through. No one segued it into the modern record and pretended that trees were like glass thermometers. And at least these tree rings have some other documentary support.

 

REFERENCES

Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Bauch, M., Camenisch, C., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Oliński, P., and Řezníčková, L.: Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?, Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020.

Cook, et al (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Science Advances 06 Nov 2015: Vol. 1, no. 10, e1500561    DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500561

Caption: The 1540 JJA precipitation totals in Europe expressed as percentage deviations (× 100) from the 1961–1990 mean (Pauling et al., 2006); (b) JJA scPDSI for 1540 in Europe according to OWDA (Cook et al., 2015). Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Bauch, M., Camenisch, C., Kiss, A., Kotyza, O., Oliński, P., and Řezníčková, L.: Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?, Clim. Past, 16, 2125–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2125-2020, 2020.

10 out of 10 based on 92 ratings

The Energy-crisis is pulling Europe apart

Rod Dreher, The American Conservative, pays close attention to a warning from Viktor Orban

Orban points out how the Energy-crisis is pulling Europe apart.

The decision on decommissioning the last nuclear power plants in Germany during a crisis makes no sense and the rest of Europe is being expected to make up for this folly, as well as the climate change obsession that put the EU into this crisis in the first place:

Europe’s Coming Big Freeze

Rod Dreher

Continent leaders preparing for winter rationing, shutdown of industries. Viktor Orban warned them

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has been warning for months now that Europe’s unqualified support for Ukraine is unsustainable … In his controversial speech in Transylvania, the West stupidly obsessed over his unwise “mixed-race” remarks, but these observations about the war and the coming winter were spot on, and far more important:

In passing, I will say a few words about European values. Here, for example, is the latest proposal from the European Commission, which says that everyone must reduce their natural gas consumption by 15 per cent. I do not see how it will be enforced – although, as I understand it, the past shows us German know-how on that. Furthermore, if this does not produce the desired effect and someone does not have enough gas, it will be taken away from those who do have it. So what the European Commission is doing is not asking the Germans to reverse the shutdown of their last two or three nuclear power plants still in operation, which enable them to produce cheap energy: it is letting them close those power plants down. And if they run out of energy, in some way they will take gas from us who have it, because we have stored it up.

–Viktor Orban

This is exactly what the experts David Wallace-Wells [in the NYT ] say could happen: EU members turning on each other. This winter could see the breakup of the EU over this crisis.

What Orban is warning about in the final lines I quoted is the prospect of mass political instability, even civil unrest, if Europeans suffer power cuts this winter, and can’t keep warm — that, and if their economies collapse because governments have to ration energy, shutting down industries to keep civilians from freezing. This is not an abstract concern!

I was talking to someone the other day who told me that a lot of Europeans are not going to feel a bit sorry for the Germans, given how hard the Germans treated them in the 2008 debt crisis. Nobody made Germany shut down its nuclear power plants, and grow dependent on Russian gas. That was Merkel’s deal.

And from another story. Look at the turmoil and effort required to cope with the current gas prices. This is a 200 year old company struggling to work 3 out 4 weeks, shifting to rolling 24 hour schedules in a desperate attempt to squeeze more efficiency out of the system.

Aluminium foundry fights for survival in European gas crisis (Reuters)

…Gerd Roeders is reluctantly preparing for the temporary shutdown of his German aluminium foundry to survive Europe’s growing gas crunch. Roeders is hoping that by moving the 200-year-old plant to three weeks of 24-hour shifts followed by a one-week shutdown, he can maintain output while cutting his gas consumption. His bill has already more than doubled this year from last, he said, fearing it will triple or even quadruple in 2023. The plan will save the cost of gas needed to fire up the ovens every morning, Roeders calculates, even if it means paying staff at family-owned G.A. Roeders more to work night shifts. Survival for G.A. Roeders GmbH and Germany’s 600 other foundries, most of which are small-to-medium enterprises with less than 250 staff, will mean cost cuts and tough talks with customers. “We’re laying out our prices to customers and telling them they have to pay more,” 59-year-old Roeders told Reuters as workers prepared the plant for the first week of rest. “We can’t deliver parts if we invest and don’t earn anything back.”

h/t Stephen and to Scott friend of DA.

9.8 out of 10 based on 91 ratings

Trump Thanks FBI For Kicking Off His 2024 Reelection Campaign

First the satire:

By the Babylon Bee.

“They came into my home to make your favorite president look like a criminal. Such losers, such losers. But everyone still loves me so it’s ok. They didn’t even find anything! I’m gonna be the President again!”

Sources close to Trump say his first act as President will be to fire his own appointed FBI Director Christopher Wray and replace him with a used dust mop from the Capitol janitor’s closet before razing the Hoover building and banishing all FBI agents to Gitmo.

“I’m gonna fire everyone, literally everyone in government,” said Trump. Federal Reserve? Gone! EPA? Gone! CIA? Gone! Department of Education? ATF? HHS? Gone, gone, gone!”

The news media responded to Trump’s statement by calling him a “threat to democracy worse than Hitler” while tearing their clothes and heaping dust upon the crowns of their heads.

Then the news:

Half the country already knows the FBI Raid was not about “upholding the law” and 4 out of 5 Republicans say they are more likely to vote. The Democrats, and Team FBI may have miscalculated. They are desperate, which is perhaps the most promising sliver of light in a dark mess. They have most of the media, the Deep State, the electronic hackable voting machines, the harvesting teams, the mail in votes, no voter ID, support from the CCP, the UN and the EU, and a million new illegal voters, and despite all that, they are acting like they could lose. Remember the last two elections? They *knew* they were going to win. This is not the same.

Let’s not get cocky.

Poll: 83 Percent of GOP Voters Say FBI Raid on Trump Increases Desire to Vote

83.3% of Republicans say the raid increases their motivation to vote in 2022

47.9% of those polled say “Trump’s political enemies” were behind the FBI raid, compared to 39.7% who say the “impartial justice system” was behind it.

And they did turn out:

Turnout, Trump, and the Mar-a-Lago Raid Made for Big Upset in Connecticut

Republicans, Democrats, and independents throughout Connecticut were left reeling Tuesday night by the results of the GOP Senate primary.

Keep reading  →

9.1 out of 10 based on 118 ratings

Climate control speed bump: Vegetarian women were 33% more likely to suffer hip fractures

Governments pushing meat-free diets for weather control might want to follow the other science…

Hip fracture, x-ray.

A 20 year study of 26,000 women showed that people who ate vegetarian diets were 33% more likely to break their hips. This is no small point because hip fractures are a surprisingly bad thing.  Short term mortality risk increases by 2 to 8 fold. (Not just a 20% increase but a 200% increase or worse). Hip fracture victims are more likely to go back to hospital, and not for their hips but mostly for other things like infections and heart conditions. Sadly as much as 17% of their remaining post fracture life may be spent in a nursing facility. (see Lo et al 2022)

Vegetarian women are at a higher risk of hip fracture

Webster et al, University of Leeds

Among 26,318 women, 822 hip fracture cases were observed over roughly 20 years—that represented just over 3% of the sample population. After adjustment for factors such as smoking and age, vegetarians were the only diet group with an elevated risk of hip fracture.

Researchers can only guess why and suggest vaguely that it might be a lack of protein, calcium, and other micronutrients.

I suspect vegetarians are missing out on Vitamin K2 which is important for getting calcium into bones and comes from things like liver, eggs, meat, hard cheese, brie, and butter. It also comes from Natto (fermented soy) but not many people eat that outside Japan. But it could be many things, like deficiencies in zinc, iodine, choline, and B12, or just an imbalance of amino acids that make up bones (like glycine). The fracture itself might not raise mortality, but the same deficiencies that weaken bones or reduce balance might also weaken hearts.

It’s worth knowing that despite the press hype, vegetarians have about the same mortality rate as meat eaters, they just die of slightly different things.

Despite vegetarian diets “gaining popularity” lately, they are still only 5 to 7% of the population:

Vegetarian diets have gained popularity in recent years, with a 2021 YouGov survey putting the size of the UK vegetarian population at roughly 5-7%. It is often perceived as a healthier dietary option, with previous evidence that shows a vegetarian diet can reduce the risks of several chronic diseases, including diabetes, heart disease, and cancer compared to omnivorous diets.

Get ready for the advertising:

There is also a worldwide call for reducing the consumption of animal products in an effort to tackle climate change.

So nine out of ten people say they “believe in climate change” but only half of one of them will give up meat?

Dietary information was collected using a food frequency questionnaire and was validated using a 4-day food diary in a subsample of women.

At the time they were recruited into the cohort study, the women ranged in age from 35 to 69 years.

Given the severity of hip fractures, bureaucrats might want to think twice about national policies which are essentially waving steaks at storms.

REFERENCES

Webster et al (2022) Risk of hip fracture in meat-eaters, pescatarians, and vegetarians: results from the UK Women’s Cohort Study, BMC Medicine (2022). DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02468-0

Lo et al (2022) Trends in Mortality Following Hip Fracture in Older Women, The American Journal of Managed CareMarch 2015, Volume 21, Issue 3

Photo: Hellerhof

10 out of 10 based on 58 ratings

Thursday Open Thread

9.3 out of 10 based on 12 ratings