JoNova

By Jo Nova

For some reason our long climate proxies work for hundreds of years but always seem to stop working just before the man-made catastrophe appears. It seems to me that if a coral-tree-clam-sediment thermometer worked in 1393, it should work in 2020. It’s not like Earth has run out of trees, mud, pollen or corals.

So here we are again, this time with a new Fijian coral that runs 627 years continuously from 1380 to 1997. And the experts have to slap “an instrumental record” on for the last twenty years to find the catastrophe. The actual single coral core shows the water of Fiji was the same or even slightly warmer in the Medieval warm period as it was in the 1990s. There’s no sign at all, in 600 years of this coral, that man-made carbon dioxide has had any effect at all on the water around Fiji.

The new data comes from a coral core drilled in 1999, which explains why it suddenly stops. It does not explain why the world is about to end, but worried scientists waited 25 years to assess the coral core.

The apocalypse is upon us, but no one can find a new big coral to study it in real time?

Click to enlarge

Since the Pacific is a long way from Europe and Antarctica, we also confirm, yet again, that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were global events. Some force was warming the Earth 600+ years ago and the experts don’t know what it was. Then the Earth cooled, and the experts don’t know what caused that either, though the sun was suspiciously quiet, but we’re not supposed to mention that. The water around Fiji started warming in 1800AD, long before humans invented coal power or model T Fords.

The experts tell us this is a “significant departure” from natural variability, and the hottest in 600 years. But it’s only when they superimpose ocean buoys and other instruments that the “record” hottest ever temperature appears like magic at the end.

Click to enlarge

Despite the authors forgetting to label the instrument data in the key on the graph, the caption contains the fine print “Also shown is the most recent SST data for Fiji from ERSSTv5 (1998 to 2021) shown in (E) (black).” So the only data for the “record” spike in the last 20 years of corals, comes from thermometers (and statistical infilling) instead. Wouldn’t you know?

So yet again, even though I hear there is still coral living around Fiji, the key hottest ever record part of the graph is not from that coral.

I’ve been asking for years for a long proxy to show we have a crisis. One solitary proxy that assesses temperatures in 2020 as well as it did in 1703 or 1492. Does anyone know one?

If corals and clams work so well as thermometers do, surely Australia, with the worlds largest living reef, ought to have hundreds of old corals we can study? You’d think if our climate scientists cared about the climate and were given, say, $440 million dollars to spend, they could have found some?  But perhaps they have to leave them in drawers for 20 years so they have room to tack on the instrumental spikes at the end?

And here are lots more graphs from the paper showing that CO2 has made no difference to the climate. A is the Southwest Pacific. B is the Macassar Strait, D is from Palmyra, E is the central pacific, F is the Galapagos, and none of them show anything we should spend a trillion dollars on.

Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA)

Fig. 2. Fiji coral composite annual Sr/Ca-SST record, WPWP model simulations and proxy reconstructions, and the SWCP SST gradient.
Annual (light gray) and 15-year moving average (dark gray) Fiji coral composite record compared to (A) simulated southwest tropical Pacific (10° to 22°S, 150° to 180°E) SST based on the average of 13 runs from the CESM LME (red) and their SD (light red); (B) Makassar Strait composite Indo-Pacific Warm Pool SST Mg/Ca reconstructions from (25) (Newton, pink) and (26) (Oppo, purple); (C) annual and 15-year moving average SSTs reconstructed for the southwest tropical Pacific from the PHYDA (orange); (D) annual and 15-year moving average SST derived from δ¹⁸O composite coral data from Palmyra (60); (E) annual and 15-year moving average SST reconstruction for the Niño 3.4 region in the central Pacific from (21) (PHYDA, yellow) and (56) (EG, green) based on the ERSSTv3; and (F) Mg/Ca foraminifera SST reconstruction from the Galapagos in the eastern Pacific (61) and inferred eastern Pacific SSTs from lake epiphytic diatom from El Junco Lake, Galápagos (62). (G) Annual and 15-year moving average SWCP gradient calculated as the difference between Fiji coral composite record and the Niño 3.4 SST reconstructions from the PHYDA (yellow) and EG (green) and their average (black). SST presented as anomalies relative to 1883 to 1996 except in (B) where values are relative to the common period between all three records (1370 to 1840). Extended warm (cold) periods in the Fiji composite highlighted in red (blue) based on the change point analysis from Fig. 1. Also shown in (G) is the change point analysis for the average SWCP gradient (dark red lines).

The propaganda from Phys Org:

Fijian coral reveals new 627-year record of Pacific Ocean climate

An international team of climate scientists have used a 627-year coral record from Fiji to reveal unprecedented insights into ocean temperatures and climate variability across the Pacific Ocean since 1370.

It’s not even phrased as a link or association, it’s so weak it’s an “interaction”:

The study published in Science Advances, co-authored by Dr. Ariaan Purich from Monash University and Professor Matthew England and Dr. Rishav Goyal from UNSW, shows how human-caused climate change is interacting with long-term patterns of climate variability in the Pacific

Follow the long tenuous wandering path to “human derived” blah:

The new coral record shows that the local ocean temperature was warm between 1380 and 1553, comparable to the late 20th and early 21st centuries. However, when combined with other coral records, the Pacific-wide warming observed since 1920, largely attributed to human-derived emissions, marks a significant departure from the natural variability recorded in earlier centuries.

No. The coral record does NOT show this:

The record also shows that present ocean temperature is the highest for the past 653 years.

And there are no implications for millions of people either, other than we should stop wasting money immediately:

The work provides new insights to understand how climate trends are leading to shifts in weather patterns and more extreme weather events that will have significant implications for millions of people living in the Indo-Pacific region.osystems across the vulnerable Pacific Island nations.”

The money line comes next– the whole point of gouging a hole in a 600 year old coral is to advertise the renewable industry and justify trillion dollar government policy mistakes. What is a line like this doing in a press release of a scientific coral study?

The study provides further motivation for the global community to keep working towards limiting warming to 1.5ºC by developing renewable energy resources at scale, to electrify the economy and phase out coal and gas.

Government funded scientists have become prostitutes for Big Government. I would love to be proved wrong. But we all know that no government funded professors could dare criticize this study.

Thanks to all the supporters who help fund me so I can.

REFERENCE

Juan P. D’Olivo et al, Coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction from Fiji extending to ~1370 CE reveals insights into the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Science Advances (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado5107

J. E. Tierney, N. J. Abram, K. J. Anchukaitis, M. N. Evans, C. Giry, K. H. Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, H. C. Wu, J. Zinke, Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives. Paleoceanography 30, 226–252 (2015).

Oceans2K records. (PS: When Steve McIntyre dissected the Oceans2K dataset he found many of the alkenone records in it were mysteriously cooling in the last fifty years.)

Image by Kanenori from Pixabay