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Weekend Unthreaded

7.5 out of 10 based on 37 ratings

South Australia heads back 100 years to diesel (with battery back up)

The new SA rescue plan is more diesel than battery

Diesel prototype engine.

Diesel’s prototype engine circa 1892.

A big fuss was made today over the world record battery, but the diesel generators put on a hire-purchase plan three days ago are more than twice the power:

The world’s biggest lithium ion battery has been launched in South Australia, with Premier Jay Weatherill declaring it an example of SA “leading the world”.

The first diesel generator was patented in 1892. Go, Go, SA.

A battery bandaid arrived barely in the nick of time:

That reliability was tested before the battery’s official launch when it began dispatching around 59 megawatts into the state’s electricity network on Thursday afternoon as the state hit temperatures above 30C.

How fragile is this system?

The facility has the capacity to power 30,000 homes for up to an hour in the event of a severe blackout but is more likely to be called into action to even out electricity supplies at less critical times.

There are 673,540 households in South Australia and the Big Battery can supply 4% of them for an hour with electricity, or all of the state for a bit over two minutes.

As  Commenter Robber says:

SA peak demand of about 2000 MW, so the world’s biggest battery can supply only 1.25% of the second smallest state in Australia, or 0.1% of the AEMO grid peak requirement. [And that’s only  for four hours].

Day 1 and neighbours got a blackout:

Widespread thunderstorms swept across the state overnight, with lightning strikes damaging some powerlines, including in the Jamestown area.

Northern Areas Council mayor Denis Clark said a number of nearby farmers were left blacked out. “They were wondering if the Premier would supply some long extension cords so they could tap into the battery to get some power,” he said.

Bev Lovell, who lives near the windfarm and battery site, said a number of recent blackouts had left her angry and frustrated. “I look out our bathroom window and I look at wind turbines,” she said.      — ABC NEWS

Nevermind:

The Premier said no type of power generator could prevent the sorts of blackouts caused by lightning damage to power lines and other infrastructure. “We had 250,000 lightning strikes — an extraordinary number,” he said. “It’s amazing we don’t have more lines down and we don’t have more people out of power.”

SA taxpayers will pay up to $50 million in subsidies to Tesla and Neoen over the next 10 years. In return, the State Government will have access to 70 per cent of the energy stored within the battery.

Three days ago SA signed a deal to get 276 MW of diesels

The opposition are calling it a scandal:

 JUDICIAL inquiry will be held into the State Government’s “scandalous” process to purchase 276MW of gas-diesel turbines if the Opposition wins next year’s election.        — The Advertiser

In August the diesels were going to cost about $110m.

The Weatherill government had in August confirmed it would spend $111.5 million as part of a $550m go-it-alone energy plan on leasing generators to ensure the lights stay on before voters go to the polls.    — The Australian

Today the cost is “commercial in confidence”:

Premier Jay Weatherill won’t reveal the price of leasing or purchasing the turbines, but says it’s included in the Government’s $550 million energy plan.

So they cost more than $111m but less than $500m?

The diesels were installed in 58 days, and can be powered up in 8 minutes:

The battery and its clean and green halo is in stark contrast with the bank of diesel-powered fast-start generators which have also just been constructed. They are located at two different sites in Adelaide, built in a rapid 58 days by United States firm APR Energy. Those generators deliver a combined 276MW and were connected to the broader electricity grid on November 13. They are powered by diesel fuel, but will only be switched on in a power shortfall emergency to quickly step into the breach if demand exceeds supply. They can be at full speed within just 8 minutes, from a standing start.

APR Energy executive chairman John Campion won’t comment on the final cost of the nine turbines…      — Australian Fin Review

The batteries may last long enough to get the diesels up and running. (Depending on the size of the shortfall).

As I said —there was a cheaper option:

Not long back, Port Augusta had a thirty-one year old coal plant generating 520MW.  The Premier could have spent $30 million to keep it going. Though coal resources are running very low in SA, so coal would have to be shipped in. It’s still cheaper than the hire-purchase-diesel-battery-wind-solar solution.

h/t Pat (PS: Pat, the second card arrived today, Thank you!)

INFO

The SA Energy Plan

Hornsdale Power Reserve is  100MW / 129MWh

 

9.1 out of 10 based on 67 ratings

Green rules, profit, legal bullying drove the Grenfell disaster

Grenfell Tower.

Grenfell Tower

It takes a lot of effort to set up a situation so dangerous under the guise of “helping the poor and the polar bears”.

Grenfell — Britain’s fire safety crisis

By Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent and Nick Stylianou, Sky News Producer

The UK Dept of Energy and Climate Change wanted help to get insulation onto buildings to save the world in 2011, so it asked the people who sell insulation. Somehow the plastics industry found the energy to turn up and help the government write rules that would increase their sales.

The Grenfell tower, where 71 people died, ended up being coated in Celotex — a flammable plastic. Celotex staff were on that committee, and bragged on their website how they were “working inside government”. It’s another example of a vested interest leaping onto the Carbonista-bandwagon. No conspiracy needed.

Follow the money:

A few years later Celotex revealed that the rules the plastics industry helps to write are key to company profits. Trade magazine Urethanes Technology International reported in 2015 that Warren had told them regulatory change was the “greatest driver” of plastic insulation sales. Without new regulations he was reported as saying: “You cannot give insulation away and the public are not really interested.”

Add in the “Green” meme:

Niall Rowan from the Passive Fire Protection Association told us: “Due to the green agenda we’ve had a push to insulate buildings and the easiest and cheapest way to insulate was using these combustible materials…”

Not the smartest plan:

Throughout all the changes to the energy-saving Part L of the building regulations -… the Government has relied on fire safety advice from a group which also makes money from the plastics industry.

We can hardly blame the plastics industry for taking a gift opportunity, but some people knew the situation was dangerous, yet this deadly threat lasted for years. Normally Social Justice Warriors would rail against the capitalists putting the poor at risk, but they were asleep at the wheel when sloppy green-regulations came through. But the others, the  whistleblowers, competitors and scientists didn’t speak up. They were afraid…

What do we do about legal bullying?

…some went further; claiming that elements of the plastics industry were not only helping to write the rules that require more insulation to be fitted to buildings, but were also trying to silence people who questioned whether plastic insulation was safe.

The plastics industry over-reaction should have been the giveaway that things were wrong:

Time after time we were told the plastic insulation industry was highly litigious, that speaking out about its fire safety was impossible, and that while the story should be told, no-one would go on camera. Eventually we found a former government scientist who agreed to talk, on condition of anonymity, about the pressures he faced. He said threats to sue him had made him unwell.

Competitors were silenced, insurance companies with an interest in preventing fires had youtubes removed, and peer reviewed papers were withdrawn:

Rockwool sent out videos in 2007 showing how their product doesn’t burn and how plastic insulation does. They were sued for trademark violation and malicious falsehood. Despite the falsehood claim being thrown out the legal action tied up Rockwool for years and cost them millions of pounds.

 Look how easy this was?

…six European plastic industry lobby groups complained in a letter to the respected publishers of a peer-reviewed paper on the dangers of toxic smoke from burning plastic insulation written by chemistry and fire safety expert Professor Anna Stec at the University of Central Lancashire. “We request that the article is withdrawn,” it said. “The consequences […] are enormous and could well lead to significant consequential losses.”

So who wrote the laws that attack free speech and give jobs to lawyers — bound to be lawyers.

Free speech saves lives. Time to change the complex ambiguous laws that allow for the endless trial-by-deep-wallets.

Read it all at Skynews:   Grenfell — Britain’s fire safety crisis

Photo: Natalie Oxford

h/t Thanks to GWPF

 

 

 

9.1 out of 10 based on 68 ratings

*Surprise* Great Barrier Reef has 112 tough spots that survive and replenish the rest

Coral, Greal Barrier Reef, Bleaching, Recovery, photo.

After lasting for thousands of years through wild swings of temperature, scientists could never have guessed that the Great Barrier Reef has evolved to cope with climate change.

The reef spans  2,300km and has spawning events so large that they can be viewed from space, but who knew that some parts of the reef appear to be safer and more resilient, and would repopulate the rest of the reef? (Apparently, not most of the scientists who have been selling the message of doom). Instead it made sense that 100% of the reef was at the same risk from predatory starfish and hot months, and that any day now, the reef might be polished off for good.

Perhaps some scientists had an idea, but when newspaper headlines declared the reef was on the brink of extinction, or doomed, where were they? (Possibly in hiding — afterall, Peter Ridd is one of the only ones to speak out, and he’s now fighting to save his job).

Crikey! It restores how much?

From the abstract:

The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location…

Righto. This 3% of the reef matters. So lets not build coal mines on thes

e parts, yeah?

Hope for Great Barrier Reef

[Telegraph]  A new study has revealed a collection of 100 individual reefs spread throughout the 2,000 mile-long marine ecosystem that not only withstand warming seas and attacking starfish but also protect others.

… a collection of reefs lying in cooler areas able to supply their larvae – fertilised eggs – to other reefs via ocean currents.

 “The presence of these well-connected reefs on the Great Barrier Reef means that the whole system of coral reefs possesses a level of resilience that may help it bounce back from disturbances, as the recovery of the damaged locations is supported by the influx of coral larvae from the non-exposed reefs,” said Dr Karlo Hock, who led the research.

Great Barrier Reef, refuge areas. Graphic, climate change. 2017

(A) Robust sources are the reefs that possess high replenishment potential while also having low risk of bleaching and COTS outbreaks. (B) When robust sources are superimposed on estimates of acute thermal stress, the region of lower stress in the southern GBR is clearly visible. Most robust sources are located in a region where cooler oceanic water of the SCJ, and to a lesser extent the NCJ, of the South Equatorial Current flushes the GBR reef matrix. COTS, crown-of-thorns starfish; GBR, Great Barrier Reef; NCJ, North Caledonian Jet; SCJ, South Caledonian Jet.

Scientists discover “heart”

If properly protected, these cool-water reefs could supply larvae to nearly half (45 per cent) of the entire ecosystem in a single year, it said. “Finding these 100 reefs is a little like revealing the cardiovascular system of the Great Barrier Reef,” said the study’s lead author Peter Mumby, professor at the University of Queensland.

 But don’t stop panicking:

Similarly, the Queensland University academics said the 100 healthy reefs cannot be solely relied upon to mitigate the damage caused by climate change.

“These findings by no means suggest that the Great Barrier Reef corals are safe and in great condition, and there are no reasons for concern,” said Dr Hock.

Professor Peter Mumby, who also worked on the paper, said “Saving the Great Barrier Reef is possible but requires serious mitigation of climate change and continued investments in local protection.”

 With any good news story, it’s obligatory to remind everyone that we always need more concern and more money.

Keep reading  →

9.5 out of 10 based on 48 ratings

Last winter 9,000 more British pensioners died than usual — how many were due to high heating costs?

Higher electricity costs mean more people turn off their heaters

There’s a big freeze coming to Britain with minus 12C temperatures possible in the next three weeks.

Last year in winter in England there was a remarkable 40% rise in winter deaths

David Archibald emails that last year was a mild winter for Brits, but the death toll rose from the normal 25,000 excess to 34,000 people. Remembering that it’s moderate cold that kills far more people than extreme temperatures. The UK government advises rooms be heated to at least 18C. (I’ve been in a Canberra house where the temperature fell to 11C indoors, and that was in May.) Despite all the newspaper headlines about outside temperatures, the big killer is indoors.

Indoor temperature matters, graph, deaths, moderate cold, extreme heat, lancet.

The big killer is indoor temperature and moderately cold, not extremes.

Campaigners demand urgent cuts to power bill after number of winter deaths among the elderly rise by 40%

Pensioner groups are demanding urgent measures to cut the cost of heat and light after official figures revealed a surge in deaths last winter. There were some 34,300 so-called ‘excess’ deaths during the cold months, according to new figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The figure equates to 11 pensioners dying every hour and represents a rise of 39.5 per cent – 9,720 – on the year before.

The excess deaths largely came from English regions. Statistics in Wales were stable. It’s partly due to the strain of flu virus, but colder room temperatures are a known risk factor.

Research suggests that further increases in dual-fuel tariffs in the past year means people are increasingly worried about putting the heating on.

National Pensioners Convention (NPC) general secretary Jan Short says governments have been ignoring the excess winter deaths and the cost of heating:

“‘Almost one in three older people live in homes with inadequate heating or insulation making their homes more difficult to heat or keep warm.

Research by the price comparison website, Energyhelpine, claims that UK families are now paying the highest energy prices in history – 33per cent higher than six years ago.

Age UK’s Charity Director, Caroline Abrahams,  claims that 250,000 older people have died from the cold over the last 10 years – and 2.5milllion over the past 60 years.

Influenza virus transmission is higher at colder temperatures and with lower humidity.

From Lancet, cold ambient temperatures increase both cardiovascular deaths and infectious deaths. Colder temperatures cause blood to thicken, blood pressure to rise and sinflammatory responses:

The biological processes that underlie cold-related mortality mainly have cardio vascular and respiratory effects. Exposure to cold has been associated with cardiovascular stress by affecting factors such as blood pressure and plasma fibrinogen, vasoconstriction and blood viscosity, and inflammatory responses. Similarly, cold induces bronchoconstriction and suppresses mucociliary defences and other immunological reactions, resulting in local inflammation and increased risk of respiratory infections. These physiological responses can persist for longer than those attributed to heat, and seem to produce mortality risks that follow a smooth, close-to-linear response, with most of the attributable risk occurring in moderately cold days.

h/t Pat too

REFERENCE

Antonio Gasparrini et al.  (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet, May 2015 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0Full PDF.

8.9 out of 10 based on 50 ratings

Electrical appliances force children to marry

Thanks to The Guardian for drawing a link we would never have noticed:

Why climate change is creating a new generation of child brides

As global warming exacerbates drought and floods, farmers’ incomes plunge – and girls as young as 13 are given away to stave off poverty

 If only these girls had perfect weather, they wouldn’t have to be married so young. For a million years of human history, everyone had enough food, there were no wars, no battles, and young women could live at home under they were 25 and had finished up at the Neolithic Academy of Weaving.

Then other people wanted fridges, air conditioners and toasters. Now every time you boil the kettle, a 13 year old girl has to get married in Malawi.

 

Ferrgoodnesssake — the plight of these poor children won’t be fixed by a carbon tax or a windmill.

h/t Pat

 

 

 

 

8.9 out of 10 based on 55 ratings

Your car causes volcanoes (and volcanoes release CO2)

Oh. My. Lord. Keep the car in the garage.

Iceland Volcano, photo.

Climate Change Could Increase Volcano Eruptions

Dr Graeme Swindles, from the School of Geography at Leeds, said: “Climate change caused by humans is creating rapid ice melt in volcanically active regions. In Iceland, this has put us on a path to more frequent volcanic eruptions.”

The study examined Icelandic volcanic ash preserved in peat deposits and lake sediments and identified a period of significantly reduced volcanic activity between 5,500 and 4,500 years ago. This period came after a major decrease in global temperature, which caused glacier growth in Iceland.

The findings, published today in the journal Geology, found there was a time lag of roughly 600 years between the climate event and a noticeable decrease in the number of volcanic eruptions. The study suggests that perhaps a similar time lag can be expected following the more recent shift to warmer temperatures.

Read more at University of Leeds

It’s amazing what you can achieve when you take a simple correlation and run with it.

Meanwhile in New Zealand, Mt Ruapehu is emitting high levels of CO2

Look out, we may set off a deadly volcano spiral feedback: cars leading to more volcanoes, which put out more CO2, causing more warming, which causes more volcanoes.

For the past couple of months the crater lake temperature has also held steady at about 37°C , which is at the upper end of its scale.

Fine weather allowed GeoNet to make airborne gas measurements and these recorded high levels of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide emissions from the crater lake (Te Wai Ā-Moe).

“The CO2 emission rate on 23 November was 2290 tonnes/day, one of the largest values recorded in recent years.

Can someone figure out how many cars will have to stay off the road in NZ today to make up for the volcano?

UPDATE: Thanks to Neil –  New Zealand has to get  458,000 cars from the roads tomorrow to offset the crater lake emissions. The total NZ car fleet is 5,021,994 cars. So that’s nearly 10%.

This one volcano is undoing quite a few years of vehicle efficiency gains, and it’s not even very active.

Douglas links to a cartoon take: “Let’s tax that Volcano”.

h/t ClimateDepot, Greg in NZ

 

8.8 out of 10 based on 67 ratings

I’m speaking this afternoon in Perth — 3 ways to destroy a good electricity grid

Three ways to destroy a perfectly good electricity grid

Council for the National Interest (CNI)

Royal Perth Yacht Club 2:30 til 4:30

Australia II Drive, Crawley Bay, Nedlands.

Free Entry

UPDATE: A great success and a lot of fun. These events are always so well run. If you live in WA check out CNI. A smart, polite and friendly crowd.

9 out of 10 based on 110 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

7.1 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

Climate Unicorns downunder as Australians offer to cut CO2 by 50% per capita in 12 years

Cost, benefits, Abandoning Australia. Futility of Carbon Action, Cartoon.

I’ve been saying the Australian commitment of a 28% reduction by 2030 was an economic suicide pact. Terry McCrann’s got numbers on just how suicidal it is:

The so-called NEG or National Energy Guarantee is dammed upfront by the total irreconcilability of its three aims: to ensure both affordable and reliable electricity (and, indirectly, gas) and meeting our commitments under the Fake Paris Accord to cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 26-28 per cent by 2030.

This, not exactly incidentally, means we have to cut emissions per capita by closer to an economy-killing and individual-impoverishing 50 per cent, and do so, in barely a dozen years, thanks to our crazy-stupid “build another Canberra ever year” high immigration, for want of a better word, policy.

What were our negotiators thinking?

Nobody mention immigration. Australia has the fastest growing population in the West. China wants to use “per capita” calculations for obvious reasons. Australia doesn’t even want to talk “per capita”.

We cut our emissions per capita by 28% from 1990 – 2013, but that was done by stopping land clearing and by confiscating land from farmers, stealing their right to use their property, and jailing them if they cleared without grovelling for permission. Somehow we are supposed to do another 50% cut in half the time? Not only are there no easy gains left, but we’re so far past the easy cuts stage we’ve shredded the spirit of the constitution. That was fun, let’s do double?

The all-critical three words that damn the supposed conclusion that we will get cheaper power at the end of it all are these: compared to “business as usual”.

McCann has a great analogy. To paraphrase: we’re on the Titanic, we’re aiming for the iceberg. That’s business as usual — steaming right ahead. Turnbull wants to get the lifeboats ready so we kill less people. McCrann says: why not steer the shop away from it and lose no lives at all, nor the ship (of state)?

Donald Trump is shining a beacon on the berg, on the terrible deal. He’s lit a neon billboard saying “This Way Out”. Turnbull’s too busy getting life-jackets.

But it’s all a bit academic as McCrann also says: By Christmas there may not be a Turnbull government.

9.6 out of 10 based on 84 ratings

Climate change will make Bearded Dragons dumber

Bearded Dragon, photo.

Young Bearded Dragon worried about falling SAT scores.

Ominously, cute Australian Bearded Dragons (Pogona vitticeps) may grow up to be more stupid if their eggs are incubated in a hotter world.

Bearded Dragons Are Dumber Because of Climate Change

–National Geographic

This has all kinds of implications.

Obviously, it follows that Victorian Bearded Dragons must be smarter than their Queensland cousins. I can see future papers coming on the IQ gradient of dragons down the East Coast of Australia.

Secondly, with this handy simple relationship between IQ and temperature we can infer the entire intellectual history of Bearded Dragons as the climate fluctuated: including the Peak Holocene Dolt Era and the Glacial Genius Maximum.

 

Holocene, Bearded Dragon, History of Intelligence.

From National Geographic

” The researchers took a single clutch of 13 eggs and split them into two groups. Seven eggs were incubated at a toasty 30°C (86°F), while the other six were incubated at a milder 27°C (81°F). There was an almost even mix of males and females.

Ahh. The cause of lower IQs may be not a hotter world, but a hotter artificial incubator. The message in this paper is Don’t leave artificial incubators lying around the Australian outback.

“The only weak part of the study is the small sample size,” he said—a limitation noted by cognitive neuroscientist Josh Amiel as well.

The only weak part?

These test animals are not in the wild, where mothers choose their nesting sites, real predators test their cognition, and real evolution has kept them going for years.

Bearded Dragon, Map, Australia.

Bearded Dragons live up and down the East Coast of Australia.

 Reptiles were already facing steep odds from climate change—it’s estimated that one-fifth of all lizard species could be extinct by 2080. Mental dimming could further stack the deck.

Somehow dragons survived for millions of years, across millions of square kilometers, through ice ages, asteroid impacts and far hotter periods.

The real problem today is that legally Dragons are not permitted to move territory, dig deeper nests, find shadier trees, or selectively promote their smarter offspring without losing welfare benefits.

UPDATE: Poor Bearded Dragons are even being forced to change their gender thanks to your air conditioner. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that).

In fact, baby girl lizards may disappear!

Dragons that are genetically male hatch as females and give birth to other lizards. 

And the way the lizards’ gender is determined is getting changed so much that the female sex chromosome may eventually disappear entirely, the study authors say.

To be serious for a sec: presumably having both sex chromosomes (which boys do in the lizard world) increases their genetic fitness (two copies of all the genes). Girls are born with one W and one Z chromosome, so like human males (XY) they would have a larger bell curve across factors encoded on the sex chromosomes, with more risks if the one and only copy they have of a gene is not a good one. So it makes sense that under stress more breeding is done from the safer boys-turned-to-girls option. Presumably during normal times the lonely W chromosome confers an advantage to offspring and recovers its role. Also presumably, this has been going on for millions of years.

Alarmists are getting so weird,
With strange climate woes to be feared,
That some dragons become,
Due to warming, more dumb,
Especially the ones with a beard.

–Ruairi

UPDATE: Delingpole mocks this too. “

No really, this is not a joke. Obviously you’re praying that it is because the last thing any of us would want – dear God, anything but that….”

Keep reading  →

9.6 out of 10 based on 72 ratings

Antarctica cooling since Roman Times, climate models wrong (again)

A new study suggests temperatures across Antarctica have been falling for the last 1,600 years.  This natural climate change would have been a threat to baby penguins, forcing them to walk much further across sea-ice for food. (Looks like it was even worse for polar bears 😉 ). The cooling trend would have threatened inland lakes, shortened summer breeding periods, affected seal behaviour, extended glaciers over important habitats, and destroyed rare tundra. It may have contributed to the death of a man called Scott. If man-made climate change warmed Antarctica we need to burn more oil.

Any recent weak “man-made” warming trend would have slightly reversed this destructive slide — restoring the continent back to levels last seen in 1400AD. Though, given that the models are wrong about everything, including Antarctic warming, maybe not.

Antarctic Cooling, Graph, 2000 years, 2017

 

These trends are not what the Climate Models predicted for Antarctica. The slight recent warming trend is too small. (Polar Amplification, anyone?)

The Daily Caller:

However, Stenni admits the “absence of significant continent-scale warming of Antarctica over the last 100 years is in clear contrast with the significant industrial-era warming trends that are evident in reconstructions for all other continents (except Africa) and the tropical oceans.”

This lack of warming “is not in agreement with climate model simulations, which consistently produce a 20th century warming trend over Antarctica in response to greenhouse gas forcing,” Stenni wrote.

From Stenni, et al (2017)

We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent

Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions…

 

For anyone who doesn’t know, as I’ve been saying for years, the parts of West Antarctica that have warmed lately seem to have big volcano’s under them, coincidence?:

h/t GWPF

REFERENCE

Stenni, B., Curran, M. A. J., Abram, N. J., Orsi, A., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D., van Ommen, T., Steig, E. J., Dixon, D. A., Thomas, E. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Isaksson, E., Ekaykin, A., Werner, M., and Frezzotti, M.: Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1609-1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017.

 

9.7 out of 10 based on 79 ratings

Health Warnings issued for Tasmanians facing six days over 25 degrees (77F +) !

Hobartians face a record heatwave for November

Things are so serious they may find Echidnas in their dog’s water bowl.

Echidna in dog's water bowl

Wildlife struggling to find water during the hot weather are likely to seek relief in your backyard. Photo: Emma C

Spend billions. Stop climate change. We simply can’t allow this kind of disaster:

Heatwave health alert issued for southern Tasmania as 130yo record set to fall

The weather bureau’s Tim Bolden said it was shaping up to be the first time Hobart has recorded six consecutive days on or above 25 degrees Celsius in November in nearly 130 years.

“[We’ll break the record] if we make it to the six days that we’re currently forecasting over 25 degrees — since last Saturday up until Thursday — and it’s certainly looking very likely,” Mr Bolden said.

“[We are] currently forecasting 28 for Tuesday, 29 for Wednesday and 29 for Thursday, having reached 30 last Saturday, 27 on Sunday and 27 on Monday.

“If we make it to that stretch of six days above 25 degrees, that would be a record heat spell for November, and equal to the maximum heat spell for the Hobart area that we’ve ever seen.

“So it’s looking like a very significant event.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, hold your breath, here’s the full awful truth about what climate change has done to Novembers in Hobart. If only the ABC staff were trained to research the internet and find these kinds of graphs. (If only the BOM were…)

November Maximum mean temperatures, Tasmania, Hobart, Graph, 2017.

Spot the effect of CO2. Anyone?

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart

Long ago, back in 2003, Tasmanians had to endure a January where the Mean Maximum for the whole month was 25C. How did they survive? Five times in one month temperatures reached above 30C (even 37C!). Going back to times when the climate was perfect, in February 1895, the average temperature for the month was also 25C.  So the effect of one hot week in November is … not that different to surviving normal summer conditions, but two weeks early. Set up a task force!

I had to double check this story wasn’t filed under “satire” and wasn’t talking about minima.

Pray for people in Tasmania. There are real issues that need discussing but the ABC and BOM are data-mining to generate “record hot” headlines.

h/t RobertRosicka, Pat. 🙂

PS: The ABC restrained themselves by not blaming climate change explicitly in this story, but neither did they bother to get the bigger perspective on whether “records” like this are even worth mentioning. The public are now well trained to blame climate change with every cherry picked record.

9.7 out of 10 based on 105 ratings

Not Powering Past Coal: 20 countries that didn’t use much coal, agree to not use much coal

Get excited everyone — the South Pacific Island of Nuie, with a population of 1,625 people has vowed not to build a coal plant. The nation is so small it is not even a member of the UN. This champion of the move away from coal is 98% powered by diesel. Everybody Cheer!

Powering Past Coal Alliance: 20 countries sign up to phase out coal power by 2030

Twenty countries including Britain, Canada and New Zealand have joined an international alliance to phase out coal from power generation before 2030.

The list includes none of the top 15 coal producers in the world. It’s non-binding. Nearly all the countries that have signed up to “Power Past Coal” are already powered by hydro, gas, nuclear or some combination of renewables (with interconnector back up). The Marshall Islands are powered by almost 100% diesel, with a hint of coconut oil. Luxembourg barely even generates electricity — importing 98% from other countries. And 68% of the people in Angola don’t even have access to electricity. It shouldn’t be too hard to get to fifty countries to sign this if they offer a free conference dinner to half the South Pacific, Central America and darkest Africa.

Is anybody fooled by this?

“I think we can safely say that the response has been overwhelming,” Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said.

The only nation which might feel pain here is Canada, the twelfth largest coal producer in the world. Since it’s also the second largest hydropower producer and has relatively cheap electricity, there is some room for virtue signaling. Besides, half of Canadian coal production is exported to countries that aren’t cutting coal use, and Canadian coal production just hit a 30 year low.

The alliance appears to be a thinly veiled critical response to the current administration of Mr Trump.

Rather, the alliance appears to be thinly veiled, full stop.

Nuclear power countries

Hydro

Wind powered

  • Denmark 47% wind, hydro and solar, and 30% coal and seven interconnector transmission lines to the rest of Europe.

Gas

  • Mexico — Oil & gas, provide 70% of the electricity. Hydro 18% and Coal is just 7%
  • Netherlands – Gas 67%, coal 15%
  • Italy — 61% powered by gas, 21% coal. Hydro is 18%. Italy gets 10% of its power from solar, and has one of Europe’s highest final electricity prices.
  • UK — Gas, 40%, Nuclear, 20%,  Only 8.6% coal
  • Portugal– 30% Hydro, 27% gas and 22% for wind and 20% for coal.

Diesel

Not even a Generator of Electricity

  • Luxembourg buys its electricity from everyone around it. It has almost no production — even of renewables — importing up to 98% of its electricity.  Not surprisingly it also has the “second smallest forecast penetration of renewables EU”.

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9.2 out of 10 based on 107 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

8.7 out of 10 based on 20 ratings

Unknown Miocene mystery where CO2 didn’t fit models, *Solved*

Strap yourself down – a puzzle you never knew existed has finally been solved!

Nov 16, 2017:  Scientists Solve 22 Million-Year-Old Climate Puzzle –“Paleoclimate Events Can Predict Earth’s Future”

Solved yesterday, settled today! That’s a rapid fire consensus… (they actually use the word “settled” in the title of the paper)

Study Settles prehistoric puzzle, confirms modern link of carbon dioxide and global warming

Finally poor Miocene researchers can sigh with relief as the first study in years shows what they *knew* was the right answer and now they can issue press releases, rest their weary minds, and stop trying to think of excuses as to why their results didn’t fit with The Climate Model Testaments.

Who knew there were large discrepancies and carbon dioxide did not fit the temperature theory for a million years or so? Not the public.

Where were the press releases telling us there was a mystery to solve?

Research Shows A High Temperature World Had Nothing To Do With CO2
Study shows temperatures fell dramatically, CO2 stayed the same
Study shows models have no freaking clue what controls the climate

Exactly, never.

The mystery they are talking about is the one marked Mi-1, 22 million years ago. This graph comes from Zachos 2008, a graph that is vying to become my new hot favorite since it has 40 million years of non-stop paradigm-busting mysteries. Watch CO2 control the climate while it stays steady for twenty million years and temperatures fall, rise, fall, spike, crash and slump into the modern Ages of Ice. This kind of climate sensitivity defies numerical analysis. If CO2 controls the climate with this kind of fickle unpredictability, it is more of a God than just a molecule, and we don’t need carbon reduction — we need places of worship. Maybe human sacrifices.

Years ago in my ninth ever post I pointed out that sometimes the only place that Experts admit that their results were ballsed up and the models didn’t work was in the introduction of a paper where they think they’ve solved it. So it was with the missing Hot Spot which people never said was missing except in a paper where they had just found it.

Here we find periods where the carbon theory fails, but are not called failures or mysteries (until after they are solved). Instead they are known as periods of decoupling:

 Furthermore, we aim to address the question of decoupling between atmospheric [CO2]atm and global temperature change during this time interval, particularly evident in the marine realm (Pagani et al., 2005; Henderiks and Pagani, 2007; Plancq et al., 2012), a question that clearly has profound implications for 21st-century climates.

In the normal world CO2 either controls the climate or it doesn’t. In the climate religion, CO2 either controls the climate or it is decoupled. There is no option for “does not control the climate”.

Here’s the graph from the new paper where a new variation on modeling of stromatal leaf changes. This time (joy) the CO2 rises from ~390 ppm in the late Oligocene to ~870 ppm at the “right” time. Did it lead the temperature spike or follow it? Yes. Definitely one or the other.

Assuming they are right this time, all they have achieved in the climate debate is just to stop the models being proved wrong at that point. The thing that matters is whether CO2 rose before temperature or after it, and since we can’t find clear signals about that in 2017, it’s no surprise that we can’t figure that out in 22 million BC either. I note table 1 says that the CO2 readings at Mush Valley are 21.73 Million years ± 30,000 years.  In modern equivalent terms it’s like we are assessing the whole global climate and CO2 levels since the Neanderthals with one dot on a graph.

Miocene, CO2, Temperature, 2017, graph.

….

The climate religion is evident throughout this paper: (the paper is more use as a sociological study)

Although the absolute amount of global temperature change between the late Oligocene and early Miocene is not known precisely, warming was likely on the same order of magnitude (~2 °C) as expected for the 21st century (Hansen et al., 2013; IPCC, 2014), and the expectation is that it was associated with an increase in atmospheric [CO2]atm. Nevertheless, previous studies documenting [CO2]atm for the cooler part of the late Oligocene and the relatively warmer early Miocene provide inconsistent and often counterintuitive results, possibly due to the use of different proxies or imprecisely dated strata.

Another word for failure is counterintuitive.

Below: that’s quite a lot of spread in those new happy CO2 results at the place called Mush (Fig 3 below). I see CO2 levels of 800ppm, 1200ppm. Isn’t that disastrous? Did we miss that mass extinction?

Tesfamichael, Graph, 2017, Miocene, CO2.

Figure 3 shows the results of late Oligocene (Chilga) and early Miocene (Mush Valley) [CO2]
atm mean values; complete results for each individual specimen are given in the Data Repository
(Table DR3). Late Oligocene [CO2]atm estimates range from 330 to 500 ppm, with a grand
mean of ~390 ppm, and early Miocene [CO2]atm estimates range from ~510 to 1340 ppm, with a  grand mean of ~870 ppm (Table 1).

Here’s a wicked thought. What if there is a wide range of CO2 levels all over the world in many ages? If we dig enough holes and do enough proxies, we will solve all the “mystery periods” sooner or later, as long as we stop looking after we’ve found the “right” answer.

(And since when was Mush, Ethiopia, representative of The World anyway?)

For background, and if you like watching scientists tap dance around their gremlins, this paper by Zhang in 2013 explains more about the significance of the Miocene Mysteries:

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9.4 out of 10 based on 74 ratings

UN Green Climate Fund: good for bankers, bureaucrats, but not so much the poor

Green Climate Fund, Logo. UN Green Climate Fund (GCF) — nice rort if you can get it

The UN climate fund was set up in 2010 but has yet to send a single dollar of project money to its star sinking island (which isn’t sinking, but is poor).

The NY Times has a long article describing how billions of dollars is being spent, but somehow it seems to be going to the wrong places. Given the lack of accountability, voters, and elections, who could have seen that coming?

The  GCF GONGO is ruled by a Board of 24 people who jetset to Korea, hand out other people’s money, and get applause. In 2012 they were seeking immunity from all laws and taxes. Presumably they succeeded. In 2014, they were caught funding a new coal power station in Indonesia to reduce carbon emissions. I wondered if that was rorting, cronyism, or ‘success’. Greens were not happy. Now we find out that the rest of the money is ending up with the renewables industry, investment bankers, and bureaucrats:

U.N. Climate Fund Promised Billions to Poor Nations. For Some, the Wait Is Long.

Transparency, not so good:

The observers took issue, for example, with a proposed project that would hand out $265 million in equity and grants to Geeref Next, a Luxembourg-based investment fund that proposed to finance renewable energy or energy efficiency projects in about 30 countries — with no explicit plan to disclose what those projects would be.

Money was supposed to go to cute local enterprises, but ended up in bank accounts in London:

…why the fund’s finances, set up to back locally owned projects that reach the most vulnerable communities, were going toward private-sector enterprises led by global investment firms — like $110 million in loans and grants for solar projects in Kazakhstan led by London-based United Green Energy and the investment arm of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund.

Fifty million dollars went on payments to things like a Hydro Dam in Tajikistan. But if the climate models are right, there will be no water in it. (At least we know there’s no risk of that.)

Ninety percent of the funds are not going towards the original mandate:

….less than a tenth of the funding has gone to the kind of projects that make up the fund’s mandate: those owned and controlled by the poorer nations themselves.

How many billion do we need to pay to get someone to answer the phone?

The fund’s secretariat did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Kiribati needs desalination to get safe water. Instead the UN fund gave them half a million to prepare a new application.

Kiribati scored a small victory this year when it qualified for a $586,000 grant to help the country prepare a new application to the fund.

The UN excuse – they are beginners:

“But we just started. There are competing interests — from countries, from the private sector, and we are trying to wade through this maze of conflicting interests,” he said. “We will get there.”

Only seven years in and nothing to show for it. Lucky their world is not facing a crisis.

__________________

9.8 out of 10 based on 66 ratings

Map of Climate Shame reveals most of world doesn’t fight climate change

With the Bonn UN Climate Junket in its last days, the big leaders are coming in, and the ambit claims are coming out.

The Climate Action Network or CAN have published a glossy report that shows just what a failure Paris was. All the red countries are pretending to do something but scoring terribly. Grey countries are not even pretending, and New Zealand has been wiped off the map. (Seriously, something spooky happened in that last election.) Commiserations to Kiwi’s (UPDATE, and Alaskans).

Climate Map, Shame, EU, UN, Global Action.

Since India is getting the Green Guernsey  and the US  is getting a wrist slap, we know for sure this chart is not based on actual CO2 emission trends, or perhaps even any numbers.

The US, after all, has reduced emissions more than anywhere else while India is doubling it’s coal mining. Is that what we should aim for?

Australia, meanwhile, can never do enough, despite reducing our per capita emissions by a phenomenal 28% from 1990-2013. We sacrificed our electrical grids, have “implemented” an Emissions Trading Scheme and say we are aiming for the same obscenely tough 28% reduction that is the fashion despite being a heavy industrial quarry, with the lowest population density, biggest distances, and highest electricity costs in the world. To make it harder on ourselves the chief commodity we are disadvantaging happens to be our second largest export industry. Despite all this, CAN ranks Australia “Very low”.

The color red really means “squeeze more blood”.

 

 

9.5 out of 10 based on 90 ratings

So what? 15,000 scientists sign warning but 30,000 scientists are skeptics*

Skeptical scientists outnumber the unskeptical ones

The “News” today: 15,000 scientists have signed some 25 year old repeat failed climate doom prediction. Headlines are everywhere.

So today is also the perfect day to point out that ten years ago 31,487 American Scientists, including 9,029 with PhD’s signed the Global Warming Petition Project warning that there is no convincing scientific evidence that man-made CO2 will cause catastrophic heating, and that agreements like Kyoto (and Paris) are harmful, and hinder science.

Opinion polls are a measure of sociology rather than science, but since skeptics win them, go forth and spread the word and shine a light on media bias, as well as on the large unheralded mass of skeptical scientists across the world.

The Petition Project was better done, done years ago, done twice, and has twice as many names on it.

Don’t miss the opportunity to pop in on the same journalists that think a list of 15,000 scientists doing a ten second internet form is newsworthy, but 30,000 checked and accredited scientists signing and mailing a paper form is not. Let them bask in their hypocrisy. Turn the screws on their cognitive dissonance. Be polite. Enjoy their struggle.

For the most part, the media actively ignored 30,000 scientists probably because it didn’t fit with their religion, their own voting preferences, or because they were afraid people they call “friends” might call them a names and stop inviting them to dinner. Cowards. (Let’s talk about being brave: Art Robinson, who organised the Petition Project, later ran for Congress, and his three youngest children all had their PhD’s simultaneously canceled, snatched or dismissed by none other than Oregon State University — the same place that this new “poll” is hosted — OSU. That kind of industrial bullying and entrenched corruption is what keeps the weak and gullible following the line. Which journalist that “Fights for the Planet” is brave enough to speak up for one PhD student?)

Fallacies piled on hypocrisy

The Petition Project was supposedly debunked because only 0.1% of the signers have a background in climate or meteorology. But if we must play that game, the skeptical petition lists 341 meteorologists, but I notice the believers list only has 32 people with “meteo” in their qualifications or institute. Watch the commentators shoot down the doomsday poll for the same reason. Or watch …crickets.

Being serious for a moment, the real proportion of skeptical meteorologists is more like 50:50 according to proper polls. When will believer-journalists admit the awful truth that climate scientists — many of whose careers hinge on the importance of a “crisis” — are so pathetically unconvincing that they can’t even persuade half of meteorologists that their predictions are meaningful?

Just because climate scientists have a vested interest doesn’t mean they are wrong, but on what planet are smart honest climate scientists unable to convince even meteorologists?

Mindless Stats on the Doomsday Warning signatories

Fully 3,000 or 20% of these scientists are ecologists and 20% have “biology” in their qualification or job title. If “Orthopaedic Surgeons” views on climate don’t count, why does a “legume” specialist matter? Let’s hear the scientific debate on that one. Should we rank scientific disciplines, score points, conduct polls and see which theory makes a touch-down?

In other curious stats, the Petition Project included only Americans, but the doomsday poll is 80% non-US^.  Apparently believers had to reach all over the world to collect up even half the names that skeptics assembled.  Other national keyword tallies in the doomsday poll include Brazil: 1,799; Kenya: 47; Nigeria – 23: Cuba – 6.

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9.6 out of 10 based on 113 ratings

Finally BoM releases some “secret” comparison data — a snow job revealing new thermometers are not comparable

Forced, dragged to comply, the BoM finally releases a little bit of side-by-side data so skeptics can start to compare old and new thermometers

Congratulations to Jennifer Marohasy. Her preliminary study on this new data is enough to show that the electronic thermometers are not equivalent to the older liquid-in-glass ones and temperatures measured in the same spot differ by as much as 0.3C. She’s now writing to Minister Josh Frydenberg that the consequences and questions raised by this are so serious that the BoM should not be announcing any new records. We need an audit!

It’s only temperature data — ?

Skeptics have been asking for comparison data between different types of thermometers for years to figure out just how much difference they make. The BoM mostly withholds that data, sometimes deletes it, and as a last resort follows the David Jones’ recommended method of dealing with unwanted questions — “snow the skeptics” (see Climategate). After all the blog posts, newspaper articles, and requests from the Minister, finally the BoM have helpfully sent the data for Mildura in the handy form of 4,000 scanned handwritten A8 forms.

Just like this one — how much fun can you have?

Bureau of Metorology, data record, Sept 1996, Mildura.

Bureau of Meteorology, data record, Sept 1996, Mildura.

This is what world-class modern data looks like.

Apparently, with only a million-dollars-a-day, the BoM can’t afford to digitize their thermometer data. The big question for me, is if this is the best data they have – how could they have analyzed it themselves to properly calibrate the thermometers — with hand-drawn graphs on paper? That would have been state of the art… in 1896. But this data was from 1989 to 2000, which includes the key years after November 1996, when the  electronic sensors started (and when most offices had computers). Perhaps by the twentieth anniversary of the change to new thermometers they will do an indepth calibration?  No wait… too late. Nevermind.

If the BoM did graph and calibrate those thermometers in a database, why couldn’t they just email that? We are not talking about market-sensitive corporate information. (Heck, it’s not like billions of dollars4,000 megawatts of wind power, and 25 million solar panels depends on data like this!) ;-).

Unfortunately for the BoM, Marohasy (and the other skeptics who helped with this processing, particularly Ken, Lance and Phill) want all the handwritten records and is prepared to transcribe the parts that matter by hand. In a matter of weeks she has already analyzed and published some preliminary information about the different thermometers at Mildura. Read it all at her blog site:

A Law Unto Themselves: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

To paraphrase, she finds that:

  • The electronic sensors record significantly different temperatures from the old liquid in glass.
  • The BoM should not be releasing any claims of “hottest ever day” at any of the 563 electronic (automatic) weather stations.
  • There are 38 sites with parallel old and new thermometers. Marohasy (and the Australian public) want that data.

“The bottom line is that since the introduction of automatic weather stations over 20 years ago, there has been no documented standard against which Australian temperatures at Mildura, or anywhere else, have been recorded. Of most concern to me is the muddling, (including by your staffers), of the numerical averaging-period with the time constant. The Bureau somewhat confusingly often refers to the time constant as the sensor “averages”.”

In this instance Marohasy looked at September (because the Bureau claimed there was a record hot day there this year). She found that the temperature differences are about 0.3C lower in the electronic sensors (which was not necessarily what we expected, though may be different in summer, or different in other stations).  If the Mildura sensor was somehow reading low, it might make the latest record an underestimate (don’t the BoM care?) but, but, but, the sensor has changed again since the late 1990s, the Stevenson Screen was replaced with a smaller version, and the BoM have gone from one-minute averaging to one-second records.  How many ways can we mess up the climate signal? It looks like the BoM were averaging over one minute back in 1997 – 1999, but the recent “record” was the one-second-record type. If true, this, obviously, changes everything.

Bureau of Meoteorology, Data records, Mildura, 1996.

Finally, side-by-side, Max temperatures in Mildura, 1996. (One example of the key section cut from the image above)

The BoM needs auditing

These temperature recordings are now the primary input data which determine a range of scientific predictions, projections and model outputs with enormous, fiscal, economic and political implications both for Australia and internationally. If these temperature recordings are wrong then all the consequent scientific, fiscal, economic and political decisions based on this data may be wrong also.

The fiscal records of government agencies are independently and regularly audited for amounts far less than the fiscal and economic impacts of global warming policies so it would seem only prudent and reasonable that the temperature records of the Bureau of Meteorology, which have such huge fiscal and economic impacts, should be subject to a similar audit regime to ensure their accuracy, integrity and reliability.

Every “record” temperature the BoM issues from an electronic station is suspect because of the assumption the BoM makes that the electronic sensors are “equivalent” to the old style mercury and alcohol ones. (And the other stations are suspect because they’ve been homogenized, but that’s another story).

 When o’ when did the one-second-records start? Only the BoM knows.

 

9.7 out of 10 based on 126 ratings