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The new SA rescue plan is more diesel than batteryA big fuss was made today over the world record battery, but the diesel generators put on a hire-purchase plan three days ago are more than twice the power: The world’s biggest lithium ion battery has been launched in South Australia, with Premier Jay Weatherill declaring it an example of SA “leading the world”. The first diesel generator was patented in 1892. Go, Go, SA. A battery bandaid arrived barely in the nick of time: That reliability was tested before the battery’s official launch when it began dispatching around 59 megawatts into the state’s electricity network on Thursday afternoon as the state hit temperatures above 30C. How fragile is this system? The facility has the capacity to power 30,000 homes for up to an hour in the event of a severe blackout but is more likely to be called into action to even out electricity supplies at less critical times. There are 673,540 households in South Australia and the Big Battery can supply 4% of them for an hour with electricity, or all of the state for a bit over two minutes. SA peak demand of about 2000 MW, so the world’s biggest battery can supply only 1.25% of the second smallest state in Australia, or 0.1% of the AEMO grid peak requirement. [And that’s only for four hours]. Day 1 and neighbours got a blackout:Widespread thunderstorms swept across the state overnight, with lightning strikes damaging some powerlines, including in the Jamestown area. Northern Areas Council mayor Denis Clark said a number of nearby farmers were left blacked out. “They were wondering if the Premier would supply some long extension cords so they could tap into the battery to get some power,” he said. Bev Lovell, who lives near the windfarm and battery site, said a number of recent blackouts had left her angry and frustrated. “I look out our bathroom window and I look at wind turbines,” she said. — ABC NEWS Nevermind: The Premier said no type of power generator could prevent the sorts of blackouts caused by lightning damage to power lines and other infrastructure. “We had 250,000 lightning strikes — an extraordinary number,” he said. “It’s amazing we don’t have more lines down and we don’t have more people out of power.” SA taxpayers will pay up to $50 million in subsidies to Tesla and Neoen over the next 10 years. In return, the State Government will have access to 70 per cent of the energy stored within the battery. Three days ago SA signed a deal to get 276 MW of dieselsThe opposition are calling it a scandal: JUDICIAL inquiry will be held into the State Government’s “scandalous” process to purchase 276MW of gas-diesel turbines if the Opposition wins next year’s election. — The Advertiser In August the diesels were going to cost about $110m. The Weatherill government had in August confirmed it would spend $111.5 million as part of a $550m go-it-alone energy plan on leasing generators to ensure the lights stay on before voters go to the polls. — The Australian Today the cost is “commercial in confidence”: Premier Jay Weatherill won’t reveal the price of leasing or purchasing the turbines, but says it’s included in the Government’s $550 million energy plan. So they cost more than $111m but less than $500m? The diesels were installed in 58 days, and can be powered up in 8 minutes: The battery and its clean and green halo is in stark contrast with the bank of diesel-powered fast-start generators which have also just been constructed. They are located at two different sites in Adelaide, built in a rapid 58 days by United States firm APR Energy. Those generators deliver a combined 276MW and were connected to the broader electricity grid on November 13. They are powered by diesel fuel, but will only be switched on in a power shortfall emergency to quickly step into the breach if demand exceeds supply. They can be at full speed within just 8 minutes, from a standing start. APR Energy executive chairman John Campion won’t comment on the final cost of the nine turbines… — Australian Fin Review The batteries may last long enough to get the diesels up and running. (Depending on the size of the shortfall). As I said —there was a cheaper option: Not long back, Port Augusta had a thirty-one year old coal plant generating 520MW. The Premier could have spent $30 million to keep it going. Though coal resources are running very low in SA, so coal would have to be shipped in. It’s still cheaper than the hire-purchase-diesel-battery-wind-solar solution. h/t Pat (PS: Pat, the second card arrived today, Thank you!) INFOHornsdale Power Reserve is 100MW / 129MWh
It takes a lot of effort to set up a situation so dangerous under the guise of “helping the poor and the polar bears”. Grenfell — Britain’s fire safety crisisBy Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent and Nick Stylianou, Sky News Producer The UK Dept of Energy and Climate Change wanted help to get insulation onto buildings to save the world in 2011, so it asked the people who sell insulation. Somehow the plastics industry found the energy to turn up and help the government write rules that would increase their sales. The Grenfell tower, where 71 people died, ended up being coated in Celotex — a flammable plastic. Celotex staff were on that committee, and bragged on their website how they were “working inside government”. It’s another example of a vested interest leaping onto the Carbonista-bandwagon. No conspiracy needed. Follow the money: A few years later Celotex revealed that the rules the plastics industry helps to write are key to company profits. Trade magazine Urethanes Technology International reported in 2015 that Warren had told them regulatory change was the “greatest driver” of plastic insulation sales. Without new regulations he was reported as saying: “You cannot give insulation away and the public are not really interested.” Add in the “Green” meme: Niall Rowan from the Passive Fire Protection Association told us: “Due to the green agenda we’ve had a push to insulate buildings and the easiest and cheapest way to insulate was using these combustible materials…” Not the smartest plan: Throughout all the changes to the energy-saving Part L of the building regulations -… the Government has relied on fire safety advice from a group which also makes money from the plastics industry. We can hardly blame the plastics industry for taking a gift opportunity, but some people knew the situation was dangerous, yet this deadly threat lasted for years. Normally Social Justice Warriors would rail against the capitalists putting the poor at risk, but they were asleep at the wheel when sloppy green-regulations came through. But the others, the whistleblowers, competitors and scientists didn’t speak up. They were afraid… What do we do about legal bullying? …some went further; claiming that elements of the plastics industry were not only helping to write the rules that require more insulation to be fitted to buildings, but were also trying to silence people who questioned whether plastic insulation was safe. The plastics industry over-reaction should have been the giveaway that things were wrong: Time after time we were told the plastic insulation industry was highly litigious, that speaking out about its fire safety was impossible, and that while the story should be told, no-one would go on camera. Eventually we found a former government scientist who agreed to talk, on condition of anonymity, about the pressures he faced. He said threats to sue him had made him unwell. Competitors were silenced, insurance companies with an interest in preventing fires had youtubes removed, and peer reviewed papers were withdrawn: Rockwool sent out videos in 2007 showing how their product doesn’t burn and how plastic insulation does. They were sued for trademark violation and malicious falsehood. Despite the falsehood claim being thrown out the legal action tied up Rockwool for years and cost them millions of pounds. Look how easy this was? …six European plastic industry lobby groups complained in a letter to the respected publishers of a peer-reviewed paper on the dangers of toxic smoke from burning plastic insulation written by chemistry and fire safety expert Professor Anna Stec at the University of Central Lancashire. “We request that the article is withdrawn,” it said. “The consequences […] are enormous and could well lead to significant consequential losses.” So who wrote the laws that attack free speech and give jobs to lawyers — bound to be lawyers. Free speech saves lives. Time to change the complex ambiguous laws that allow for the endless trial-by-deep-wallets. Read it all at Skynews: Grenfell — Britain’s fire safety crisis Photo: Natalie Oxford h/t Thanks to GWPF
Last winter 9,000 more British pensioners died than usual — how many were due to high heating costs?Higher electricity costs mean more people turn off their heatersThere’s a big freeze coming to Britain with minus 12C temperatures possible in the next three weeks. Last year in winter in England there was a remarkable 40% rise in winter deathsDavid Archibald emails that last year was a mild winter for Brits, but the death toll rose from the normal 25,000 excess to 34,000 people. Remembering that it’s moderate cold that kills far more people than extreme temperatures. The UK government advises rooms be heated to at least 18C. (I’ve been in a Canberra house where the temperature fell to 11C indoors, and that was in May.) Despite all the newspaper headlines about outside temperatures, the big killer is indoors. Pensioner groups are demanding urgent measures to cut the cost of heat and light after official figures revealed a surge in deaths last winter. There were some 34,300 so-called ‘excess’ deaths during the cold months, according to new figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The figure equates to 11 pensioners dying every hour and represents a rise of 39.5 per cent – 9,720 – on the year before. The excess deaths largely came from English regions. Statistics in Wales were stable. It’s partly due to the strain of flu virus, but colder room temperatures are a known risk factor. Research suggests that further increases in dual-fuel tariffs in the past year means people are increasingly worried about putting the heating on. National Pensioners Convention (NPC) general secretary Jan Short says governments have been ignoring the excess winter deaths and the cost of heating: “‘Almost one in three older people live in homes with inadequate heating or insulation making their homes more difficult to heat or keep warm. Research by the price comparison website, Energyhelpine, claims that UK families are now paying the highest energy prices in history – 33per cent higher than six years ago. Age UK’s Charity Director, Caroline Abrahams, claims that 250,000 older people have died from the cold over the last 10 years – and 2.5milllion over the past 60 years. Influenza virus transmission is higher at colder temperatures and with lower humidity. From Lancet, cold ambient temperatures increase both cardiovascular deaths and infectious deaths. Colder temperatures cause blood to thicken, blood pressure to rise and sinflammatory responses: The biological processes that underlie cold-related mortality mainly have cardio vascular and respiratory effects. Exposure to cold has been associated with cardiovascular stress by affecting factors such as blood pressure and plasma fibrinogen, vasoconstriction and blood viscosity, and inflammatory responses. Similarly, cold induces bronchoconstriction and suppresses mucociliary defences and other immunological reactions, resulting in local inflammation and increased risk of respiratory infections. These physiological responses can persist for longer than those attributed to heat, and seem to produce mortality risks that follow a smooth, close-to-linear response, with most of the attributable risk occurring in moderately cold days. h/t Pat too REFERENCEAntonio Gasparrini et al. (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet, May 2015 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Full PDF. Thanks to The Guardian for drawing a link we would never have noticed: Why climate change is creating a new generation of child bridesAs global warming exacerbates drought and floods, farmers’ incomes plunge – and girls as young as 13 are given away to stave off poverty If only these girls had perfect weather, they wouldn’t have to be married so young. For a million years of human history, everyone had enough food, there were no wars, no battles, and young women could live at home under they were 25 and had finished up at the Neolithic Academy of Weaving. Then other people wanted fridges, air conditioners and toasters. Now every time you boil the kettle, a 13 year old girl has to get married in Malawi.
Ferrgoodnesssake — the plight of these poor children won’t be fixed by a carbon tax or a windmill. h/t Pat
Oh. My. Lord. Keep the car in the garage. ![]() … Climate Change Could Increase Volcano EruptionsDr Graeme Swindles, from the School of Geography at Leeds, said: “Climate change caused by humans is creating rapid ice melt in volcanically active regions. In Iceland, this has put us on a path to more frequent volcanic eruptions.” The study examined Icelandic volcanic ash preserved in peat deposits and lake sediments and identified a period of significantly reduced volcanic activity between 5,500 and 4,500 years ago. This period came after a major decrease in global temperature, which caused glacier growth in Iceland. The findings, published today in the journal Geology, found there was a time lag of roughly 600 years between the climate event and a noticeable decrease in the number of volcanic eruptions. The study suggests that perhaps a similar time lag can be expected following the more recent shift to warmer temperatures. Read more at University of Leeds It’s amazing what you can achieve when you take a simple correlation and run with it. Meanwhile in New Zealand, Mt Ruapehu is emitting high levels of CO2Look out, we may set off a deadly volcano spiral feedback: cars leading to more volcanoes, which put out more CO2, causing more warming, which causes more volcanoes. For the past couple of months the crater lake temperature has also held steady at about 37°C , which is at the upper end of its scale. Fine weather allowed GeoNet to make airborne gas measurements and these recorded high levels of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide emissions from the crater lake (Te Wai Ā-Moe). “The CO2 emission rate on 23 November was 2290 tonnes/day, one of the largest values recorded in recent years. Can someone figure out how many cars will have to stay off the road in NZ today to make up for the volcano? UPDATE: Thanks to Neil – New Zealand has to get 458,000 cars from the roads tomorrow to offset the crater lake emissions. The total NZ car fleet is 5,021,994 cars. So that’s nearly 10%.This one volcano is undoing quite a few years of vehicle efficiency gains, and it’s not even very active. Douglas links to a cartoon take: “Let’s tax that Volcano”. h/t ClimateDepot, Greg in NZ
I’ve been saying the Australian commitment of a 28% reduction by 2030 was an economic suicide pact. Terry McCrann’s got numbers on just how suicidal it is: The so-called NEG or National Energy Guarantee is dammed upfront by the total irreconcilability of its three aims: to ensure both affordable and reliable electricity (and, indirectly, gas) and meeting our commitments under the Fake Paris Accord to cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 26-28 per cent by 2030. This, not exactly incidentally, means we have to cut emissions per capita by closer to an economy-killing and individual-impoverishing 50 per cent, and do so, in barely a dozen years, thanks to our crazy-stupid “build another Canberra ever year” high immigration, for want of a better word, policy. What were our negotiators thinking?Nobody mention immigration. Australia has the fastest growing population in the West. China wants to use “per capita” calculations for obvious reasons. Australia doesn’t even want to talk “per capita”. We cut our emissions per capita by 28% from 1990 – 2013, but that was done by stopping land clearing and by confiscating land from farmers, stealing their right to use their property, and jailing them if they cleared without grovelling for permission. Somehow we are supposed to do another 50% cut in half the time? Not only are there no easy gains left, but we’re so far past the easy cuts stage we’ve shredded the spirit of the constitution. That was fun, let’s do double? The all-critical three words that damn the supposed conclusion that we will get cheaper power at the end of it all are these: compared to “business as usual”. McCann has a great analogy. To paraphrase: we’re on the Titanic, we’re aiming for the iceberg. That’s business as usual — steaming right ahead. Turnbull wants to get the lifeboats ready so we kill less people. McCrann says: why not steer the shop away from it and lose no lives at all, nor the ship (of state)? Donald Trump is shining a beacon on the berg, on the terrible deal. He’s lit a neon billboard saying “This Way Out”. Turnbull’s too busy getting life-jackets. But it’s all a bit academic as McCrann also says: By Christmas there may not be a Turnbull government. ![]() Young Bearded Dragon worried about falling SAT scores. Ominously, cute Australian Bearded Dragons (Pogona vitticeps) may grow up to be more stupid if their eggs are incubated in a hotter world. Bearded Dragons Are Dumber Because of Climate Change–National Geographic This has all kinds of implications. Obviously, it follows that Victorian Bearded Dragons must be smarter than their Queensland cousins. I can see future papers coming on the IQ gradient of dragons down the East Coast of Australia. Secondly, with this handy simple relationship between IQ and temperature we can infer the entire intellectual history of Bearded Dragons as the climate fluctuated: including the Peak Holocene Dolt Era and the Glacial Genius Maximum.
From National Geographic ” The researchers took a single clutch of 13 eggs and split them into two groups. Seven eggs were incubated at a toasty 30°C (86°F), while the other six were incubated at a milder 27°C (81°F). There was an almost even mix of males and females. Ahh. The cause of lower IQs may be not a hotter world, but a hotter artificial incubator. The message in this paper is Don’t leave artificial incubators lying around the Australian outback. “The only weak part of the study is the small sample size,” he said—a limitation noted by cognitive neuroscientist Josh Amiel as well. The only weak part? These test animals are not in the wild, where mothers choose their nesting sites, real predators test their cognition, and real evolution has kept them going for years. Reptiles were already facing steep odds from climate change—it’s estimated that one-fifth of all lizard species could be extinct by 2080. Mental dimming could further stack the deck. Somehow dragons survived for millions of years, across millions of square kilometers, through ice ages, asteroid impacts and far hotter periods. The real problem today is that legally Dragons are not permitted to move territory, dig deeper nests, find shadier trees, or selectively promote their smarter offspring without losing welfare benefits. UPDATE: Poor Bearded Dragons are even being forced to change their gender thanks to your air conditioner. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that). In fact, baby girl lizards may disappear! Dragons that are genetically male hatch as females and give birth to other lizards. And the way the lizards’ gender is determined is getting changed so much that the female sex chromosome may eventually disappear entirely, the study authors say. To be serious for a sec: presumably having both sex chromosomes (which boys do in the lizard world) increases their genetic fitness (two copies of all the genes). Girls are born with one W and one Z chromosome, so like human males (XY) they would have a larger bell curve across factors encoded on the sex chromosomes, with more risks if the one and only copy they have of a gene is not a good one. So it makes sense that under stress more breeding is done from the safer boys-turned-to-girls option. Presumably during normal times the lonely W chromosome confers an advantage to offspring and recovers its role. Also presumably, this has been going on for millions of years. Alarmists are getting so weird, –Ruairi UPDATE: Delingpole mocks this too. “ No really, this is not a joke. Obviously you’re praying that it is because the last thing any of us would want – dear God, anything but that….” Keep reading → A new study suggests temperatures across Antarctica have been falling for the last 1,600 years. This natural climate change would have been a threat to baby penguins, forcing them to walk much further across sea-ice for food. (Looks like it was even worse for polar bears 😉 ). The cooling trend would have threatened inland lakes, shortened summer breeding periods, affected seal behaviour, extended glaciers over important habitats, and destroyed rare tundra. It may have contributed to the death of a man called Scott. If man-made climate change warmed Antarctica we need to burn more oil. Any recent weak “man-made” warming trend would have slightly reversed this destructive slide — restoring the continent back to levels last seen in 1400AD. Though, given that the models are wrong about everything, including Antarctic warming, maybe not.
These trends are not what the Climate Models predicted for Antarctica. The slight recent warming trend is too small. (Polar Amplification, anyone?) However, Stenni admits the “absence of significant continent-scale warming of Antarctica over the last 100 years is in clear contrast with the significant industrial-era warming trends that are evident in reconstructions for all other continents (except Africa) and the tropical oceans.” This lack of warming “is not in agreement with climate model simulations, which consistently produce a 20th century warming trend over Antarctica in response to greenhouse gas forcing,” Stenni wrote. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions…
For anyone who doesn’t know, as I’ve been saying for years, the parts of West Antarctica that have warmed lately seem to have big volcano’s under them, coincidence?:
h/t GWPF REFERENCEStenni, B., Curran, M. A. J., Abram, N. J., Orsi, A., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D., van Ommen, T., Steig, E. J., Dixon, D. A., Thomas, E. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Isaksson, E., Ekaykin, A., Werner, M., and Frezzotti, M.: Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1609-1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017.
Hobartians face a record heatwave for NovemberThings are so serious they may find Echidnas in their dog’s water bowl. ![]() Wildlife struggling to find water during the hot weather are likely to seek relief in your backyard. Photo: Emma C Spend billions. Stop climate change. We simply can’t allow this kind of disaster: Heatwave health alert issued for southern Tasmania as 130yo record set to fallThe weather bureau’s Tim Bolden said it was shaping up to be the first time Hobart has recorded six consecutive days on or above 25 degrees Celsius in November in nearly 130 years. “[We’ll break the record] if we make it to the six days that we’re currently forecasting over 25 degrees — since last Saturday up until Thursday — and it’s certainly looking very likely,” Mr Bolden said. “[We are] currently forecasting 28 for Tuesday, 29 for Wednesday and 29 for Thursday, having reached 30 last Saturday, 27 on Sunday and 27 on Monday. “If we make it to that stretch of six days above 25 degrees, that would be a record heat spell for November, and equal to the maximum heat spell for the Hobart area that we’ve ever seen. “So it’s looking like a very significant event.” Ladies and Gentlemen, hold your breath, here’s the full awful truth about what climate change has done to Novembers in Hobart. If only the ABC staff were trained to research the internet and find these kinds of graphs. (If only the BOM were…) Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart Long ago, back in 2003, Tasmanians had to endure a January where the Mean Maximum for the whole month was 25C. How did they survive? Five times in one month temperatures reached above 30C (even 37C!). Going back to times when the climate was perfect, in February 1895, the average temperature for the month was also 25C. So the effect of one hot week in November is … not that different to surviving normal summer conditions, but two weeks early. Set up a task force! I had to double check this story wasn’t filed under “satire” and wasn’t talking about minima. Pray for people in Tasmania. There are real issues that need discussing but the ABC and BOM are data-mining to generate “record hot” headlines. h/t RobertRosicka, Pat. 🙂 PS: The ABC restrained themselves by not blaming climate change explicitly in this story, but neither did they bother to get the bigger perspective on whether “records” like this are even worth mentioning. The public are now well trained to blame climate change with every cherry picked record. Get excited everyone — the South Pacific Island of Nuie, with a population of 1,625 people has vowed not to build a coal plant. The nation is so small it is not even a member of the UN. This champion of the move away from coal is 98% powered by diesel. Everybody Cheer! Powering Past Coal Alliance: 20 countries sign up to phase out coal power by 2030Twenty countries including Britain, Canada and New Zealand have joined an international alliance to phase out coal from power generation before 2030. The list includes none of the top 15 coal producers in the world. It’s non-binding. Nearly all the countries that have signed up to “Power Past Coal” are already powered by hydro, gas, nuclear or some combination of renewables (with interconnector back up). The Marshall Islands are powered by almost 100% diesel, with a hint of coconut oil. Luxembourg barely even generates electricity — importing 98% from other countries. And 68% of the people in Angola don’t even have access to electricity. It shouldn’t be too hard to get to fifty countries to sign this if they offer a free conference dinner to half the South Pacific, Central America and darkest Africa. Is anybody fooled by this? “I think we can safely say that the response has been overwhelming,” Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said. The only nation which might feel pain here is Canada, the twelfth largest coal producer in the world. Since it’s also the second largest hydropower producer and has relatively cheap electricity, there is some room for virtue signaling. Besides, half of Canadian coal production is exported to countries that aren’t cutting coal use, and Canadian coal production just hit a 30 year low. The alliance appears to be a thinly veiled critical response to the current administration of Mr Trump. Rather, the alliance appears to be thinly veiled, full stop. Nuclear power countriesHydro
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