By Jo Nova
Australians are angry the BOM didn’t see the flooding rains coming
Worse, we’re betting the nation on the BOM’s ability to predict the climate.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tells Australians that record breaking extremes are getting worse because of our cars and our air-conditioners (that’s “The State of the Climate“). But when the BOM can’t predict record breaking rain a month in advance, or even the day before, we know the BOM doesn’t understand what drives the climate.
Somehow the BOM expect Australians to spend trillions and rearrange their economy based on their fifty year prophesies, but not to mind when “this summer” goes right off the rails.
Back in September the BOM issued its El Nino alert, and Australians were told it would be a hot and dry and to prepare for a summer of bushfires. Farmer sold their lambs, and adjusted harvest accordingly.
This was the BOM solemn prediction in late October, for the very next month of rainfall
Across most of Australia the odds were only 20-40% of getting average rain.
Instead this is what happened:
And in December most of the country was predicted to have a fifty fifty chance of getting “average” rain.
But the real weather gods had another idea, and all the places under any shades of green below got somewhere from 100% to 300% of the average rainfall. The indigo and purple zones got even more.
This was a savage downpour — seven feet of rain in five days fell at one location:
No fewer than 12 locations across far north Queensland posted record rainfall totals.
Some areas received a year’s rainfall in a single day, isolating towns, closing highways and leaving hundreds stranded by surging floodwaters. Black Mountain near Cooktown recorded a cumulative 2189mm over the five days, while Mossman South, an hour northwest of Cairns, had 1935mm.
As the Mayor of Douglas Shire said:
“If this is so record-breaking, how did no one know this was going to happen … we need to have forecasts closer to what is going on.”
The BOM suddenly wants to absolve itself of liability
People have noticed there is now a mandatory check box forcing users to agree to a legal disclaimer clearing the BOM of all liability:
Users of the BOM app now have to agree to a 699-word “terms and conditions” statement that includes “information at this app … may not be accurate, current or complete”.
“To the maximum extent permitted by law, the bureau excludes any liability that may arise in connection with the BOM Weather app or any information or material presented therein or your access to or use of any of the same,’’ the bureau says in a “terms and conditions” statement that appears when a user attempts to download its app. — Mackenzie Scott, The Australian
They know they are in trouble.
I say the BOM can have immunity the same day Australians can also tick a box excluding ourselves from any and all costs, imposts and taxes related to any BOM predictions.
The Australian editors gives the BOM an escape valve it doesn’t deserve:
To be fair to the BOM, a hysterical and ill-informed media has allowed climate alarmism to infect reporting of what should be routine weather events.
For thirty years the Australian media has made hyperbolic scare stories about the weather while the BOM tacitly stood by and smiled. Where were they as the tenets of science were trashed, and critics were called “climate deniers”? If the BOM are victims of this hyperbole now, they reap what they sowed.
The BOM raised the stakes, and they don’t get to weasel out by saying “we used the best science” as if the best science wasn’t riddled with holes. If the science is good enough to throw away trillions of dollars, then the worst failures need a truckload of explanation.
Predicting the weather is hard. We could forgive the BOM for getting a complex immature science wrong, but not when they also tell us it’s just simple physics, they’re absolutely sure, and there is no doubt they’re wrong (give us your money!).
Federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt said on Thursday he had full confidence in the bureau.
“I think that they do the best they can to give as accurate information to the community and decision-makers like us about weather conditions,” he said. “Meteorology is not a perfect science. Sometimes you do deal with weather systems that cannot be predicted and I think the one that we saw here the other day was like that, as it was in far north Queensland … very unpredictable systems that with the best will in the world, it’s sometimes not possible to provide ultra-precise information.”
He would say that, wouldn’t he!
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Indeed. And a corollary which should be printed in big letters on all statements from the BoM:
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Climatology isn’t even close to being as well developed as meteorology. We understand short-term weather FAR more than we understand long-term climate. Meteorologists get things right far more often than they get it wrong, provided they aren’t looking forward more than 10 days or so. Meanwhile, have climatologists ever got ANYTHING right? From global cooling in the 1970s to the End of Snow in the 2000s, have any of their predictions ever panned out?
As unreliable as meteorology can be at times, it is a thousand times more reliable than climate predictions a year, ten years, or a hundred years into the future.
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Indeed, climatologists have a 100% record – of getting things wrong. Check out https://extinctionclock.org/ for a tabulation of predictions made over the past 4 years to see how many they got right.
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I am not aware of any climate activist prediction that has come true. Ever.
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Political puke talk!
If it was just a sand pit with a rainguage a thermometer and wind vane dotted around the country we could forgive a few miss -interpreting events.
However with all the fancy equipment available that then gets biased modelling data mainly automatically corrupted and gathered, is it any wonder that they just report the weather. The daily shock and horror of the fire, flood,drought on the news is great for a clown like Watt to create static.
Someone should ask him why the head of the BOM just got a payrise to $533000 pa.
53k would be generous imo.
Happy 2024 Jo- Australia needs sites like this more than ever with the current Trots in charge.
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It isn’t just the BoM. All branches of government are trying to avoid all liability for everything. The public serpents are also nearly impossible to find or talk to on the phone.
As for seasonal forecasts, there is no methodology. There are correlations between El Nino/La Nina and rainfall in eastern Australia but that is all and they aren’t 100% or near it.
I think the problem is that people are expecting things that simply are not possible and government plays up to this, then comes unstuck. An honest BoM would simply say we provide short
term weather warnings and forecasts out to 4 days which decrease in accuracy and usefulness after 24 to 48 hours.
Look at Windy.com see what is predicted for your location in 10 days, then track the way that changes as the original date gets closer and then what actually happens on that day.
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A mate and I used Windy as our primary weather forecasting tool on a sea kayak trip across Bass Strait 12 months ago (we were about 4 hours into the 52km crossing out to Hogan Island). We found it quite accurate out to about 7 days. We tracked two hourly wind direction and speed forecasts from 4am to 4pm each day out to a week. we had the info written down so was very easy to see.
Didn’t change a great deal at all. Changes might move a few hours but was remarkably accurate.
In the leadup to the trip we tested a few different systems and found Windy the best by quite a margin for wind direction and speed.
Can’t comment on temps or rain, that didn’t matter to us. Crossing Banks Strait we used the current forecaster on windy and that was good but didn’t reflect the speed of the current change we experienced that day.
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I heard through a face book account that many farmers are hiring private weather forecasters and simply ignoring the BOM propaganda. BOM is all about doom headlines, that is what they sell, not an accurate service so someone can plan their harvest, planting or stock acquisitions.
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Yep,being uncontactable and the disclaimers of liability for any forcasting in their app and online is standard government risk management risk management (Arse covering) practice. Forget about Net Zero emissions, its simply Net Zero accountability for all the outcomes of that aforementioned strategy and anything that contributes to it.
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My SOL works for an outfit the subcontracts the Canadian Federal Gov phone line. Aside from information callers could easily get from the gov sites, he spends a lot of time making people felt heard and calming them down. Needless to say he is looking for another job.
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Another govt dept that is so busy being ‘woke’ that it fails its primary purpose.
Weather forecasting has never been simple or easy, we all know that, but their performance of late is disgraceful, they are going backwards at a rate of knots.
Notifying a community of a storm after it has already hit is worse than useless.
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Keep in mind that their science is settled. Always will be ..
Is their supercomputer called Merlin?
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Nope,HAL.
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I’m sorry, Dave
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Since “climate change” is blamed for everything, next they’ll be saying that climate change has made predicting the weather impossible.
Of course, they can still forecast the future climate with 100% accuracy and that requires us to shut down our economy.
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All that supercomputer power wasted on non-validated fake climate “models” (sic) should be used for weather forecasts with appropriate validated models (if they exist), or alternatively put to some other worthwhile science and evidence based use for humanity.
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Perhaps Lotto numbers ?
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Modern climate models are low-res weather models run for longer periods of time. The principal components are the same. BOM and the other meteorological agencies warned that this El Niño will be atypical because of western Pacific marine heatwaves. Climate change has made short-term weather prediction less predictable. The westerly winds this spring/summer are not consistent, which is allowing humid tropical air to drift southwards.
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Ha! Exactly as I predicted in comment #4:
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“Climate change has made short-term weather prediction less predictable.”
Just confirmed on the local 6.00pm news, wow what a statement. Climate change, the long term deviation of trends from the “norm” means that tomorrows WEATHER, which we have constantly been told is different from climate change is now a result of climate change.
I’m having difficulty keep up!
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During El Nino we expect dry conditions in Australia, but this forecast failed because of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga eruption. All that water in the stratosphere acts as a greenhouse gas and it took 18 months to spread around the world.
BoM should have prepared us, but apparently this particular volcanic eruption was unprecedented.
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El,
Essentially all of the papers I have read about Hunga Tonga are quite guarded about its effects, if any, on weather globally or regionally. Perhaps I have missed a definitive paper that will prove correct in the fullness of time.
In the meantime, I spent Christmas with huge files of raw data, trying to find why the BOM estimate of warming of 1.47 deg C nationally since 1910 can be believed. So far, I find it nothing more than unsupportable twisting of what the real numbers tell.
For example, they show that Melbourne Regional followed by its replacement Olympic Park around 2015 shows cooling at a rate of minus 2.296 deg C per century from year 2000 to now. But saw that is cherry picking.
Here are the Taverage trends from 1920 to now for 8 key locations in deg C per Century.
Brisbane 0.155
Sydney 1.513
Melbourne 1.632
Hobart 1.257
Adelaide 0.612
Perth 1.227
Darwin 0.015
Alice Spr 0.083
It is hard to see how the all-up BOM figure of 1.47 Deg C is derived, unless you adjust the original temperatures, apply weighting factors that I do not have, forget about Urban Heat Islands and claim that the numbers you get have a low uncertainty.
People ask why I am sceptical. You have to be when the simple, primary numbers tell a story different to advertised. Geoff S
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BoM has been fudging the numbers for decades and only an audit will expose it.
Because of the historical unprecedented nature of the Hinga Tonga eruption it does not compute, so they are flying blind.
Martin Junker had a stab at it, but is demonstrably wrong.
https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-climate-impact-of-large-stratospheric-water-vapor-perturbations
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Blah blah blah
Either they know how to predict or they don’t.
Just don’t start scary prediction scenarios when they have no idea at all – just admit it.
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Simon, Simon….. 😀
Why Joe Bastardis longtime weather forecasts have more precision than weather forecasts beased on models ? 😀
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It is fine to say it is less predictable, but you cannot claim that post facto. Thats just fitting the narrative to whatever differences reality has subjected your prediction to.
You will note that this lack of predictability is NEVER mentioned in relation to climate predictions.
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Record breaking and unprecedented rainfall in far North Queensland simply denies the facts. A quick look into Barren Gorge or Tully Gorge would give any astute observer a clue that the area was, and continues to be, subject to significant rain fall events.
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The BoM is possibly Australia’s most protected Government Department.
The whole climate change scam depends on it.
Remember when former PM Abbott wanted an inquiry into data fraud at the BoM and one of his cabinet ministers, former WEF global strategist Greg Hunt stopped it?
Thst resulted in Tony Abbott being removed from office, exactly as predicted by Lord Monckton.
SEE https://youtu.be/NG0WcjGHkEw
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The BOM is simply doing what they’re ordered to do.
The morons, one identifying as a PM & the other identifying as an energy minister are losing / have lost control of their policies, particularly their green energy and need to tell even more lies to give some semblance of “ good government” !
Their climate policies are destroying the economy slowly but surely and with it their chances of reelection. They need to get the destruction of the energy grid over the tipping point so even a nuclear option from conservatives will be impossible to implement. That of course is if the Uniparty is even genuinely considering the nuclear option.
Both parties however will use the BOM for sowing panic & fear when their policies become totally transparent & the electorate call their lies & BS!
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The BOM are like celebrities or top level sports people. They start to believe their own hype, rather than being judicious, science based conservative government advisors. They particularly started to believe their own hype that under “ climate change”, El Niño / La Niña would be more extreme events. Basically , they were wrong and should now just man up and admit it.
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“they were wrong and should now just man up and admit it.”
Always nice to read some light comedy on a Friday morning. This is the BoM we’re talking about. Like the ABC, they are beyond mere distractions like objective truth.
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C’mon now, this is the BOM we are talking about, a government agency full of public servants and you want them to man up, hilarious. Shame on you for telling them to “Man up”, You would be on performance improvement in a heart beat for disrespecting the diversity of your colleagues who may identify as non binary or BLTA+Chips.
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When your funding or job depends on you supporting the government’s narrative, science and your integrity goes out the window. I know small time farmers that have lost up to $100000 destocking their farms due to these springtime predictions. One of them told me that the BOM should be made to pay for their lost income. If the bureau had of said that this summer has the potential of El Niño developing and left it that they would have been okay, but they had to make it doom and gloom because it marches the narrative. As an amateur who regularly watches the SOI on the following website https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ you could see that it was going to be a neutral to slightly drier season and summers will always be hot at times. As an officer in the local brigade I regularly attend CFA briefings on the coming summer and it always doom and gloom as well.
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Climate alarmists win both ways. If BOM says there will be drought, then there’s a flood, people other than farmers and climate sceptics don’t connect the two so the alarmists get two handy scares on the front pages.
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Yes when the headline flood comes (attributed to climate change) people have forgotten the headline predicted drought (climate change) from before.
Gives “drought and flood” new meaning.
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This failure of medium term predictions is not new. Many landowners consult other agencies for improved accuracy, regionally based. Simon has made the correct statement that the rain was due to a positive AAO , facilitating a moist NE stream of tropical air to feed into cooler air down south.
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Come on! the graphics above show quite accurate predictions of rain …. for climate clowns!
Information such as this must be promulgated far and wide.
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97% of scientists agree with whoever is funding them. The other 3% are banned from social media (joannnnova being an exeception)!!
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isnt there a bloke in Australia or NZ that uses astrology or some thing to predict long range weather forecasts ? I wonder if he predicted this weather?
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Astrology is an inexact science, however our star has the ability to forecast ENSO.
Around 18 months after a solar minimum we should expect La Nina to turn up, BoM doesn’t mention this.
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Astrology isn’t a science of any description – it’s just a hobby.
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Yes of course, astrology was Johannes Kepler’s day job before science had materialised.
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I find casting chicken entrails to be a very successful method of forecasting. I offered to train the next intake of BOM “appcasters” so they had a new skill but they complained it was not ESG compliant.
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I believe it was Ken Ring – Forecasts went like this – Cloud cover with a possibility of showers between fine breaks For the greater Wellington – Horowenua area
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Okay thanks, Ken reports that New Year’s Eve NZ weather will be uneventful.
I grabbed this quote from a Jennifer Marohasy post.
‘While the Australian Bureau of Meteorology started forecasting an El Nino from 2013, back in March 2014, Ken Ring is on record specifying that the next El Nino wouldn’t manifest until late 2015 to correspond with the minimum declination of the moon, and following what he predicted would be the year of Solar Minimum. For those interested in lunar cycles, a minimum declination occurs every 18.6 years, so the last one corresponded with the super El Nino of 1997/1998.’
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Lunar cycles
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BOM long-term forecasts are good enough for policy development, but not good enough to be useful.
Seriously though, short term forecasting and monitoring services provided by the BOM to companies who need to know this stuff – like the offshore oil and gas industry, have been good in my experience. Many offshore installations in the NT and WA need to be evacuated if there is a threat of a cyclone, and the logistics for this are not simple or cheap. aside from that one case many years ago where Santos left people on a rig during Cyclone Monty, it has been done well, and safely, partly due to info from the BOM, even if it is paid for by the various companies involved.
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thanks for the red thumbs. I appreciate the huge effort made to communicate your ideas.
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I feel that certain people shoot from the hip James.
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“Worse, we’re betting the nation on the BOM’s ability to predict the climate.”
Far worse that other government departments base their policies on BoM long term predictions. This gives the BoM credibility based on nothing as their is no feed back loop. How accurate has ANY BoM prediction been? Climate policy based on a model can only be proven to be stupid policy as it is not adjusted as real data disproves any model.
Models based upon getting grants and maintaining democratic choice by lying, no longer predict anything other than getting people elected to maintain the printer in the ON position. The printer is only ON when there is a “crisis” until the print run itself is the crisis. A crisis is created to print money (see Wuhan, Vietnam, Iraq, Rampant Immigration etc). When it goes OFF the music stops and 10% of the highly paid economy (that does nothing) rushes for the chairs. Invariably no-ones been making chairs (just weapons and drugs) and a fight over who gets to sit ensues (war).
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I ran tourists boats in the Whitsunday area of the great barrier reef in the 70s & 80s. Originally I depended on Bureau for my forecast data, & gave too many tourists a rough ride because of this.
Then I got lucky, & got to know an old retired Island park ranger from the 30S & 40s. Partly incapacitated, he had not got much of an education, but was a smart observant man, who had lived with the weather all his life.
He explained to me how I could forecast local wind strength & direction later in the day by what was happening down around off shore Rockhampton in the early morning. This was great luck as I was about to start running 29 meter high speed 300 passenger catamarans out to the outer reef daily. Using BOM forecasts I would have frightened a lot of tourists, & cancelled many great days.
I had to make the decision to run or cancel about 6.00 AM. Using the knowledge from my old ranger I got it right over 90% of the time, the BOM about 70%, if that.
Right now I am running my place on my 10KVA gen set. We are still waiting for our power to be reconnected after the Christmas night 168Km/H thunder storm that took out the grid to 60,000 homes south of Brisbane Christmas night. Pity the BOM didn’t forecast that one properly.
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Weather happens regardless of computer based BOM predictions. Prudent people will prepare as best they can for whatever nasty weather event based on their own observations of what they can ascertain from a variety of data including that from the BOM. However these people know that being prepared has its physical limits and this cannot compete with the superior physical forces of the atmosphere which can produce destructive flooding, cyclonic winds and falling trees all of which destroy the built and natural environment. I think people place too much faith in the BOM. In my opinion,the BOM is feted by many people as some kind of omnipotent weather god which must be supported financially with excessive amounts of money to achieve what is far beyond its scientific capabilities.
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From the BoM:
Long-range forecast overview
Issued: 28 December 2023
January to March rainfall is likely to be below median across much of the north and west of Australia.
January to March maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median for most of Australia.
January to March maximum and minimum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for much of Australia. Unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of January to March periods from 1981 to 2018.
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BOM = bunch of morons.
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Haha! What a joke the BOM is.
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Which all just goes to show that if you can’t accurately forecast next week’s weather in general, then making outlandish claims with extreme accuracy for the next 30 years is utterly ludicrous.
A weather forecast is the equivalent of “safe and effective” where the opposite and unforseen is more probable. 😉
How to improve BOM accuracy markely:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/63/1a/60/631a60f523afb9a1986e9ec6c6da984f.jpg
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They’re in competition with the Dept of Agriculture who spent $100,000,000 trying to eradicate the Varroa mite in bees and failed completely. All those involved remain in their jobs.
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Ha! I just heard on the radio that users of the BoM weather App are being asked to waiver any claims for damages for their incorrect predictions.
That was directly after a news item stating that climate alarmist and anti-car activist, Melbournistan Lord Mayor Sally Capp refuses to pay back to the taxpayer $30,000 of expenses incurred for private use of chauffeur driven cars. And the chauffeur vehicle is often parked illegally outside the Town Hall waiting for her.
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Ha! As mentioned by Jo, I just heard the story about the BoM disclaimer on the radio news so it’s good that information is getting out.
That was directly after a news item stating that climate alarmist and anti-car activist, Melbournistan Lord Mayor Sally Capp refuses to pay back to the taxpayer $30,000 of expenses incurred for private use of chauffeur driven cars. And the chauffeur vehicle is often parked illegally outside the Town Hall waiting for her.
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‘Global Warming’ is an exact Science.
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Despite Australia having one of the lowest population densities in the world, as part of the globalist agenda and a commitment to the free range prisons known as “15 minute cities” Australian Government’s are committed to building high density dwellings.
High density dwellings usually come with deep basements. These need sump pumps either intermittently or permanently running to remove groundwater ingress.
How’s that going to work when wet weather as described comes and there is not enough wind and solar electricity to run the pumps?
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David,
If you talk to building managers you will find that high density housing is going to be problematic with the introduction of EV chargers . The other issues include access via lifts and aircon when “load shedding” occurs as well as the issue you raised .
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No worries David,
The EVs parked in the basement will catch fire and, with the aid of UN climate change, boil off all that water.
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Eastern Australia could be in for a ~40-year wet period.
Asten and McCracken paper: Time-series analysis of extreme rainfall and flood events in two water catchments of Eastern New South Wales shows an indicative link to Gleissberg 87 yr cycles
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That site is under maintenance, do you have another link?
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Works for me.
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Found a way around the problem, some interesting ideas on cycles and definitely worth further investigation.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021AGUFM.H45Z..12A/abstract
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Yea and typically the developers put in the lowest specced pump system designed to handle ground water ingress and typical weather. First big storm that overwhelms it and cars impersonate boats. David is onto something though.
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New Orleans after the cyclone, in Oz
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Maybe measured across the whole country, but we are highly urbanised, hardly anyone lives outside the mega-metropolis of Melydnane.
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Overall Victoria had a very cool Xmas period and very wet and floods.
Even the Mallee was cool and Mildura had the coldest Xmas day on record….. 17.9 c and about a degree cooler than 1972 Xmas day 51 years ago.
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Dr Pielke jnr checks out how good the climate really was from 1850 to early 20th century.
Some terrible times and loss of life when co2 levels were perfect (?) and very low life expectancy as well.
He includes a lot of references links to support his article.
But plenty of left wing idiots who still insist we WASTE TRILLIONS of $ to achieve NOTHING but they’re still trying to inflict more misery on the OECD taxpayers.
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/when-the-climate-was-perfect
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As I see it the trouble with “climate” forecasts is the error accumulation and propagation over time . To add to that the base “assumptions” are misleading (misinformation..). The hardest thing to predict IS the future .
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The hardest thing to predict is the winning Lotto/Powerball numbers.
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I don’t mind if the BOM doesn’t get the predictions right.
But I do when they bang their chests and tell everyone the weather 100 years from now, and if you question it, you’re a bigot. That’s a completely different ball game.
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Three-day forecasts with a slide of about 12 hours are usually close to reasonable. By slide I mean if rain is forecast at Noon on day 3, it may be early or late by 1/2 a day. Likewise, wind speed and temperature need sliding concepts.
Think of El Niño and La Niña [or Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] as temporary shifts of dynamic patterns. However, there is a saying about Earth Systems, namely, you can’t do just one thing. My mantra is “There is always something!” – – – Meaning, in this case, other parts of the atmosphere can and will affect the ENSO.
Anyway, your BOM should underwrite higher boots for those recently flooded. 🙂
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You don’t need a PhD in Metrology to do that, it is a simple statistical analysis of weather records. If you know the conditions in Perth, Alice Springs and Adelaide today using 100 years of collated records you can reasonably estimate the weather in Melbourne and Sydney for the next three days give or take a small variation. You could write a simple algorithm to calculate it in seconds. I could do it.
If we have to pay millions every year to these clowns I expect more than that.
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Yesterday we read about a woman who suffers from asthma and relies on weather and pollen data to decide whether she goes outside or stays inside. Not really useful information on which to base such decisions.
But I can’t see how some of the BOM weather forecasts can be verified. Where I live the BOM provides a forecast for the town, but the actual data is measured at an airfield about 10 klms north.
Then there is Cobar. The BOM provides weather forecasts for Cobar, but the actual data is measured at the Cobar Meteorological Office and Cobar Airport. A couple of years ago I noticed that the forecasts for Cobar were somewhere in between the Met Office data and the Airport data.
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Just as the public serpents who mismanaged covid didn’t lose a day of work or cent of pay due to inappropriate policies, so too, not one public serpent at the BoM who made non-scientific predictions based on politics rather than science, will incur any losses.
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Your bung BoM is not alone: our equivalent prophesied the same ‘hot and dry’ for us and, of course, we’re enjoying the complete opposite – mild muggy downpours.
MetService update for southern mountains:
29 Dec, snow to 2,000m
30 Dec, snow to 1,800m
31 Dec, snow to 1,700 or 1,500m
1 Jan 2024, clearing…
Yet Govt Media shouts ‘heat alert’ as Christchurch may might possibly get to 30C today thanks to a foehn nor’wester – ssshhh don’t mention the snow on the hills.
‘El Niño weather expected to draw more sharks, scientist says’ RNZ.
Hope the little boy draws sharks better than RNZ which used a file photo of a dog-fish in an aquarium, d’oh! Your one sauce of tooth™ fails badly again and again and…
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Update to the update: it appears ‘settled science consensus’ changes by the hour –
31 Dec, Sunday, New Year’s Eve
“Snow possible to 1,300 metres”
It’s getting lower by the minute… which is why I live up north, as far away from the Roaring Forties as I can, I’m over the cold…
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There must be a few lurkers from the BoM reading here.
Don’t you feel ashamed of working for such an incompetent and dishonest organisation?
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Leave them alone David, they have no choices, do as told or leave.
sarc
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Some are on holiday.
Back on the clock next week.
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BoMber
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No doubt BoM wants this forgotten, that memories do not span back to 2014/15 Abbott Liberal-National Government and the letter from Doctor Jennifer Marohasy to the Minister for BoM outlining the many media release deceptive weather data that did not match BoM historic record data?
Part of a number of discoveries by her and various colleagues indicating that the BoM was not an accurate source of information.
The Minister, it was reported, tabled that letter in Cabinet and Prime Minister Abbott recommended that an independent audit be conducted at the BoM. Unfortunately his proposal failed to attract enough votes from the Cabinet Ministers to proceed. The Minister however wrote to BoM management and asked for an explanation. In short they replied there were “errors and anomalies” and action would be taken to avoid making the same errrors in future.
Prime Minister Abbott was Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2013 and Prime Minister from 2013 to 2015 and then was replaced by Malcolm Turnbull who was backed by his Liberals In Name Only (LINO) left MPs.
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BOM = Bunch of Muppets……………
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😂😂😂😂😂😂😆😆😆✔👀
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Here’s a quick summary of the Reason Foundation’s study of deaths from extreme weather events since the 1920s to today.
We all owe a debt to Dr Indur Goklany for trying to educate stupid so called climate scientists, but so far they just continue to ignore the data and evidence.
“NEWS RELEASE”
Extreme Weather Events Are Killing Fewer People Than Ever Before
The worldwide death rate from weather happenings has dropped over 98 percent since the 1920s
September 22, 2011
“Despite concerns about global warming and a large increase in the number of reported storms and droughts, the world’s death rate from extreme weather events was lower from 2000 to 2010 than it has been in any decade since 1900, according to a new Reason Foundation study”.
The Reason Foundation report chronicles the number of worldwide deaths caused by extreme weather events between 1900 and 2010 and finds global deaths caused by extreme weather events peaked in the decade running from 1920 to 1929, when there were 241 deaths a year per million people in the world. From 1930 to 1939 there were 208 deaths a year per million people. But from 2000 to 2010 there were just 5.4 deaths a year per million people in the world. That’s a 98 percent decline in the weather-related death rate since the 1920s. Extreme weather events were responsible for just .07% of the world’s deaths between 2000 and 2010.
The extreme weather categories studied in the Reason Foundation report include droughts, floods, wildfires, storms (hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, typhoons, etc.) and extreme temperatures, both hot and cold.
Droughts were the most deadly extreme weather category between 1900 and 2010, responsible for over 60 percent of extreme weather deaths during that time. The worldwide death rate from droughts peaked in the 1920s when there were 235 deaths a year per million people. Since then, the death rate has fallen by 99.9 percent. The study finds that global food production advancements, such as new crops, improved fertilizer, irrigation, and pesticides, along with society’s better ability to move food and medical supplies, were responsible for reducing the number of deaths in times of severe drought.
Floods were to blame for 30 percent of the deaths during the timeframe studied, making them the second most deadly extreme weather category. The death rate for floods topped out in the 1930s at 204 deaths a year per million people. Deaths from floods have fallen by over 98 percent since then and there was an average of approximately one flood death per year per million people from 2000 to 2010.
Deaths from storms spiked as recently as the 1970s, when there were 10 deaths a year per million people. But the death rate has dropped by 75 percent since then, with storms being blamed for two deaths a year per million people from 2000 to 2010.
The average number of extreme weather events recorded increased from 2.5 per year in the 1920s to 8.5 in the 1940s to 350 per year for the period 2000-2010. The study notes technological and telecommunication advances made it significantly easier to learn of and respond to weather events. Broader news coverage and an increased tendency by authorities to declare natural disaster emergencies have also contributed to the large uptick in the number of storms recorded.
“Overall mortality around the world is increasing, while mortality from weather events is decreasing,” said Dr. Indur Goklany, the author of the Reason Foundation study. “Despite the intense media coverage of storms and climate change’s prominent role in political debates, humanity is coping far better with extreme weather events than it is with other much more important health and safety problems.”
“The number of reported extreme weather events is increasing, but the number of deaths and the risk of dying from those events have decreased,” said Julian Morris, the study’s project director and vice president of research at Reason Foundation. “Economic development and technological improvements have enabled society to protect against these events and to cope better with them when they do occur.”
Full Report Online
The full study is online here and here (.pdf).
About Reason Foundation
“Reason Foundation is a nonprofit think tank dedicated to advancing free minds and free markets. Reason Foundation produces respected public policy research on a variety of issues and publishes the critically acclaimed Reason magazine and its website, Reason.com. For more information, please visit Reason.org”.
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Here’s a link to Dr Indur Goklany’s study for the Reason Foundation.
https://reason.org/news-release/extreme-weather-kills-fewer-people/
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BoM and CSIRO make unsupportable claims about their ability to predict future weather and climate.
They are incompetent or perpetuating fraudulent claims about the ability of their ACCESS climate model to provide predictions that come close to reality.
This is their claim:
You will find that here:
https://www.access-nri.org.au/case-study/access-models-input-to-cmip6-simulating-australias-future-climate/
Their ACCESS -CM2 shows 1.5C rise in temperature over mainland Australia from 1980 to 2030. Actual GHCN data is flat over the period 1980 to 2023 and there is no reason to think there will be a jump of 1.5C in the next 7 years unless Bowen manages to knock down every tree to build wind and solar farms:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ighcn_cams_05_112-153E_-36–10N_n_1980:2030_a.png
Very few are calling out these fraudsters for deceiving the Australian public. When challenged, they simply respond by saying their model produces middle of the road of the other models. They no longer regard reality as meaningful.
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BoM is just another section of the bureaucracy.
Bureaucrats have two distinctive attributes, solid bedrock in application:
1) all care operation of process, ie. tick-a-box. If this sequence is mishandled, they have their little bo..ies kicked, they are moved sideways, personnel file stamped with “naughty”;
2) actual outcomes, though – no accountability at all. They cannot be sacked, or even disciplined, for damaging, messed-up outcomes if the process that achieved that was fastidiously followed.
In another, earlier life (which now feels like BC to me), I worked for both Federal and State bureaucracies for a period until I could stand it no longer. Worshipping mediocrity is very stultifying.
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you just explained the covid response – pharma worked out how to supply exactly what is required to “tick the box” – the boxes got ticked the outcomes (for the citizenry) are irrelevant.
No accountability, everybody did their job, precisely as pharma knew they would.
$$$$$$$$$
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I recall Jo presenting some of these BOM graphics before, I think around the last Townsville floods. Similar scenario , forecasts inverse of reality and poor warning to those in the danger zone.
You have to wonder why they produce those charts when they can be , and repeatedly are, 100% wrong. Combine this with routine non compliance in monitoring stations and tampering with the temperature record. If you cannot reliably perform your core functions it’s usually symptomatic of incompetence and/or failed management. In private enterprise you would be long gone.
Something needs to change, but I am not hopeful.
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The news report tonight on Channel 7 had farmers in FNQ blaming BoM for terrible forecasts that had cost them money.
The response was that the climate was experiencing more extremes due to climate change and was more difficult to forecast.
And there was no smart reporter asking if it is harder top forecast, how do we know it will be a lot warmer in 80 years.
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Interesting to look at the gross value of WORLD agriculture production in 1991 compared to 2021 in US $.
So in 30 years the total world value has increased by about 400%.
Here are some countries and regions and Aussies are high for such a small population. And of course a very small population of farmers in wealthy OECD countries.
Strange thing is the climate doesn’t seem to have been a problem over the last 30 years? Anyone notice any dangerous climate or a climate CRISIS or a climate EMERGENCY or an EXISTENTIONAL THREAT to Humans since 1991?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/value-of-agricultural-production?tab=chart&country=AUS~CAN~CHN~European+Union+%2827%29+%28FAO%29~IND~JPN~UKR~USA~OWID_WRL~NLD
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BTW the population in 1991 was 5.4 billion and about 7.9 billion in 2021 or 2.5 billion more people to feed.
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AGAIN it’s interesting to look at the area used for agricultural use around the world since 1961 to 2020.
In 1961 the GLOBAL area was 34.55% but just 1.9% increase in 2020, to feed another 4.8 billion more people.
And Aussies have seen a huge drop in agricultural land area over the last 59 years.
Certainly we’ve farmed in the most beneficial period in Human history and only liars and con merchants would or could disagree.
So how much longer can they feed us their BS and FRAUD?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-land-area-used-for-agriculture?country=South+Asia+%28WB%29~North+America+%28WB%29~OWID_WRL~AUS~CAN~CHN~OWID_EU27~IND~RUS~UKR~USA
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The federal emergency minister Murray Watt has now announced a review of emergency procedures and communications between emergency agencies and the BOM, but he seems to be saying that the main problem is the comms channels, not BOM itself.
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100+ years ago Dorothea Mackellar new more about Australia’s climate than all the BOM operatives put together
My Country
Poem by Dorothea Mackellar
…..
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
……
https://www.kidspot.com.au/parenting/things-to-do/i-love-a-sunburnt-country/news-story/f68f4f59290614958036eb680748f442
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I have always said that how can you predict the future if you can’t predict the past. This sounds a strange statement but explains everything about the global warming hypothesis. The climate theory claimed essentially that as you add CO2 to the atmosphere the global temperatures warms.But you didn’t need 30 years of data since the 90s to disprove it , you just needed 30 years of historic data from the 40s to the 70s to disprove it when the worlds climate scientists thought the worlds temperatures were indicating the beginning of a new ice age. Whilst the hockey stick graph and removal of the medieval warm period were manipulations to change Inconvenient data the most egregious manipulations have been undertaken by the BOM and equivalent global bureaus to homogenise the past.
Whilst this has led to cooling the past ( and eradicating the 40s to 70s downward trend) logic tells me that adjustments due to changed instruments and data collection geography should’ve been adjusted the other way due to the UHI effect and its impact on weather stations.
You also have to take into account that with 80% of the world is covered by ocean and therefore even the concept of a global average temperature is problematic.
The Bureau has been front and centre in the manipulation of historic data to suit the climate narrative over the last 30 years and has been staffed and run almost exclusively by climate alarmist disciples.
When you take actions to spend trillions to damage your economy on the assumption of 1 or 2 degrees of temperature changes I would’ve thought it pretty basic that we should be able to trust the data upon which those policy decisions are made.
If my memory is correct I think about 10 years ago Abbot was talked out of an audit of BOM by the minister responsible at the time WEF graduate Greg Hunt. I may be wrong but either way I think a properly conducted independent audit into BOM would be valuable in trying to highlight the inherent bias that has influenced the BOM activities.
It might be too late for such an audit but in this case I think it’s better late than never.
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The BOM also produces heatwave predictions with these sorts of graphics.
Its typical in summer for most of the country to be classified as having a “low intensity heatwave” What does that mean? you might ask.
Searching for a definition turns up that it appears to mean the temperature will be warmer than usual for that location but not dangerous to health. Very objective and sciencey eh? and you still get to use the scary heatwave word. Dont know if its the work experience kid or AI that makes the “warmer than usual” call. Of course the “usual” baseline is the BOMs now much adjusted and corrupt temp record, so results are predictably psuedo warm.
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25 years ago I used the BOM’s gopher server (dating from before the internet’s widespread use) for marine weather forecasts issued, from memory, hourly forecasts for the next week.
These forecasts were, for the most part, a worthwhile service, especially as I used them as an insight for the next 6 hours in planning tactics for yacht racing.
This all changed as a result of the BOM’s complete failure to predict the conditions for the ’98 Sydney to Hobart. The Bureaus response was to close the server and stop that particular forecast service entirely.
25 years and nothing has changed.
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I’ve just read an article in which the BOM is now stating that the reason Eastern Australia is wetter than predicted is because of a “marine heatwave”, caused mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and not so much by El Nino. Apparently there are pockets of “hot water” along the NSW coast, mainly in the south, where water temperatures are as high as 27 degrees C. A BOM spokesperson says that most people equate El Nino with heat and bushfires, but this is not always the case. All I can say is that BOM is not doing its job if it can’t factor in parameters such as SAM. I’m starting to wonder if the BOM does indeed have the proper equipment to monitor ocean temperatures accurately.
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