JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Greetings to Saturday early birds. I am drinking my Friday morning tea.
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Here it’s just the Friday 5 o’clock tea 😀
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9am Friday; having a quick beer.
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I used to go to the “Early Openers” pubs in Wooloomooloo to have a few beers with my mates at 7.00 am in my younger days.
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“One of the world’s leading research centres in the field of environmental research” insists parts of flooded Germany are still in drought!
😀
Computer simulations, what else ? 😀
Can’t they measure and spread facts ? Wouldn’t be conforme with the narrative. 😀
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Back in the day, computer models were expected to be validated against real world observations.
At the very least the modeller was expected to look out the window to see what was really going on.
This is what happens when you’ve had generations raised on computer games who never left their bedrooms or basements to observe the real world, or indeed socialise.
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WUWT posted my NERC nonsense article and there are some really good comments.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/28/nerc-ducks-extreme-cold-grid-threats/
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Fantastic.
30
For Simon to show the difference between climate versus weather models:
Climate Models Versus Weather Models: Different Approaches for Different Needs
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It’s good to see that we concur that the climate is changing. Monsoons are usually an emergent property of climate/weather models when run at sub-annual time periods. The General Circulation Models in both weather and climate models are well understood and broadly the same. Climate model ensembles are generated with slightly different parameterisation to assess future uncertainty.
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“Climate model ensembles are generated with slightly different parameterisation to assess future uncertainty.”. The idea that they assess future uncertainty is laughable. In this respect, climate models are random number generators.
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James Hansen’s crude 1988 GCM has successfully predicted observed warming very well.
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Yes, his predicted warming (0.3℃ per decade) with The Maldives underwater, along with the lower end of Wall Street and the Florida beaches wash away by 2018 must have worked out.
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Simon
Its been generally warming for 250 years so to predict further warming is not exactly astounding.
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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337753937_Evaluating_the_Performance_of_Past_Climate_Model_Projections
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Yes. The climate is always changing, even in historic times such as during the Minoan, Egyotian, Roman and Medieval climate optima. Civilisation thrives during warm periods.
The fundamental issue here is that warmists are what I would call for lack of a better word, “staticists”.
Like many primitive or uneducated peoples, they fundamentally don’t believe in natural variation of the climate, the ecosystem or the planet itself. In the past, within recorded history, there have been periods of both wonderful warmth and miserable cold.
Plus, we are coming to the very end of a rare interglacial. As the world cools, it will be impossible for civilisation to survive without coal, gas and nuclear power stations (and real hydro where possible, not SH2). How is civilisation going to survive without power stations?
The idea that the earth and universe is static is a very primitive one and articulated by Aristotle in “In the Heavens” 350BCE.
It is only in the last 100 years or so that the ideas of Alfred Wegener (1880-1930), a real climatologist, geologist, geophysicist, meteorologist and polar researcher came to be accepted that the earth is not static. Among other ideas he conceived of continental drift which led to plate tectonics.
However, as early as 1840 Louis Agassiz (1807-1873) hypothesised that much of North America was once buried under glacial ice up to 3km deep and that climate must change.
Milutin Milanković (1879-1958) also discovered natural cycles in the climate.
Warmists have to do a lot of catching up with modern thinking.
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Simon says:
Also see my comment #2.1 above:
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It is very difficult to conceptualise the amount of energy required to produce the changes in climate over the timeframes necessary to understand climate change. For example, and only a few days ago, this blog mixed weather (which is short term) with climate (which is long term). Attributing energy sources is what gives you made made climate change, but again it is difficult to conceptualise the amount of extra energy needed to raise the atmosphere by 1 degree C. Certainly it is not evident in the comments here
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This blog mixed nothing up. You simply can’t tell what is criticism of hypocrisy and media lies, and what is scientific evidence.
That’s why you are so confused about the climate Peter.
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Well Mt. Tambora (1815) dropped the northern hemisphere temperature about 2℃ (1816 the year without summer) and Krakatua (1883) seemed to have managed only 0.5℃, so surely we should be able to extrapolate to the amount of warming that we must have received to increase? our temperature since 1100 AD, or 100 AD, or possibly 3500 BC (when things were climatically useful in the Levant) or about 6000 BC when the Sahara was green.
See also Comment No.7
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“Certainly it is not evident in the comments here”
Maybe it’s just me, but I find the substance of your comment not evident in your comment
“Attributing energy sources is what gives you made made climate change” … huh?
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‘ … the amount of extra energy needed to raise the atmosphere by 1 degree C.’
The Tonga eruption might temporarily push earth closer to 1.5°C of warming, with a bit of sleuthing we should be able to measure that energy.
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This is the spike and I come up with a figure of 0.2 C for the eruption.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2023_v6_20x9.jpg
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Interesting observation.
It is invariably the climate alarmists who use every WEATHER happening [hot, cold, wet, dry, fire or pestilence but never perfect] as proof positive of CLIMATE going wrong.
Also interesting is that when I was at high school [78 years ago] the weather, [or was it climate? I forget] was so bad that the only thing they could pin this terrible condition onto was THE BOMB! That’s really what was happening. Tell me peter what has changed? I say nothing, the physics is the same and “The End is Nigh” folk are still with us.
Nuclear testing at Bikini Atoll consisted of the detonation of 24 nuclear weapons by the United States between 1946 and 1958 on Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Tests occurred at 7 test sites on the reef itself, on the sea, in the air, and underwater.[2] The test weapons produced a combined yield of 42.2 Mt of TNT in explosive power.
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Weather models run on local stage, climate models on a global stage, that’s why they are called “Global Climate Models”.
Any idea of the difference ?
😀
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You may have a look at the history of Troy, how often it was left because of drought and rebuild after (East Mediterranean) monsoon came back. CO2 ? SUV ? Climate Model reconstructable ? 😀
Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean through the Holocene
inferred from Turkish stalagmites
40
The latest covid “poo storm”
” It used to be that neurotic, OCD people were obsessed with their own bathroom habits. But it’s a brave new post-covid era, and OCD people have expanded their horizons; they are now equally fascinated with your number-two habits. This bathroom biofeedback story, which you probably never heard of, is the biggest thing going in the Covidian world, and it is threatening to break through as a mainstream Narrative.
So let’s shut it down!”
https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/deep-dives-friday-december-29-2023?r=1vxw0k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
And masks get a mention there too
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What they do is a Covid test for every sniffle.
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Hi Simon,
You may be able to explain something to me. According to NASA : “Part of what makes Earth so amenable is its natural greenhouse effect, which maintains an average temperature of 15 °C (59 °F). However, in the last century, human activities, primarily from burning fossil fuels that have led to the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, have disrupted Earth’s energy balance. This has led to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean (sic). The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising consistently for decades and traps extra heat near Earth’s surface, causing temperatures to rise.” https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/
So, according to NASA, Earth’s average surface temperature, without mankind’s interference, should be 15 °C. According to NOAA https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature, the average surface temperature for 2022, the last full year of records, Earth’s average temperature was 14.76 °C. So, as at the end of 2022 we were sitting at 0.24°C below optimal. This is interesting because it doesn’t seem to make any sense in relation to man made climate change and both sources are regarded as credible. Thanks
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This is a remarkable graph and often shared by Neville.
Notice how CO2 emissions from the US, Japan, EU and Russia are not significantly different (or lower) from 1970 but China and India have shot up.
Even though China is an advanced country with nuclear power, nuclear weapons, bio weapons, a space program and modern cities, many of which are more advanced than Western countries, they have no CO2 emissions limits imposed upon them and are also by far the world’s largest CO2 emitter.
Remind me again why the West is destroying their economies with “green” energy”?
Source: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png
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That is an easy one Dave- CHINA IS ALREADY COMMUNIST TOTALITARIAN.
Recall the psychological crutch of PROJECTION.
You are welcome!
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David its the per capita argument, poverty is growing in China at an alarming rate.
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Poverty is relative. In Aus it is considered less than 50% of median wage. In May ’23 our ave. wage was $1,838 and full time med. was $1,500 so our poverty line was somewhere between $750 and $900 per week.
Poverty – Poverty and Inequality – ACOSS
Our 2022 Poverty in Australia Snapshot found that there are 3.3 million people (13.4%) living below the poverty line of 50% of median income, including 761,000 children (16.6%).
Whereas in China:
By Jack Goodman
BBC Reality Check
Chinese President Xi Jinping says his country has reached the ambitious goal set when he assumed office in 2012 of lifting 100 million people out of poverty.
But what has China actually achieved?
We’ve compared the Chinese data with global poverty figures compiled by the World Bank.
China’s poverty figures
Poverty is defined by China as anyone in rural areas earning less than about $2.30 a day (adjusted for inflation). It was fixed in 2010 and looks at income but also living conditions, healthcare and education.
Provinces have been racing to reach the goal. Jiangsu, for example, announced in January last year that only 17 of its 80 million residents still lived in poverty.
The national benchmark used by the Chinese government is slightly higher than the $1.90 a day poverty line used by the World Bank to look at poverty globally.
Another source says that our poverty line is above China’s HIGH middle income;
Lower-middle $10 – $20 $3,650 – $7,300
Upper-middle $20 – $50 $7,300 – $18,250
High >$50 >$18,250
Wanna bet I get a red thumb by one or two commos on the site?
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And for those who like to quote satellite data:
“https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/49/which-measurement-is-more-accurate-taking-earths-surface-temperature-from-the-ground-or-from-space/
Ground thermometers are considered more accurate than satellite measurements when it comes to tracking temperature, and here’s why:
1. Satellites don’t directly measure temperature or the surface where people live. Instead, they measure the brightness of Earth’s atmosphere. Scientists then use computer models to convert this brightness data into temperature information.
2. To make matters more challenging, scientists gather brightness data from more than 16 different satellites. Think of it like receiving a box of puzzle pieces without a picture to guide you on how to complete the puzzle. Experts face a similar puzzle-solving task as they work with data from satellites that were launched in different decades since 1978. They must figure out how all these pieces fit together to create a coherent picture of Earth’s temperature.
3. Satellites measure the brightness of Earth’s atmosphere at various altitudes. For instance, they capture data from the layer of air closest to where people live, roughly the height where birds and airplanes fly. Scientists then combine and analyze these measurements, extending to about 23,000 feet (approximately 7,000 meters) in the atmosphere.
In summary, while satellites provide valuable information about Earth’s temperature, ground thermometers are considered more reliable because they directly measure the temperature where people reside. Satellite data require complex processing and modeling to convert brightness measurements into temperature readings, making ground thermometers a more direct and accurate source of temperature information for us.”
As it turns out, satellite temperatures, according to NASA, are not all they are cracked up to be and we all know that NOAA’s ground based temperature measurements are badly corrupted by urban heat island effect.
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So satellite readings would not have captured the ongoing Arctic conditions in China?
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Hi el+gordo.
It looks like, from what NASA say, satellite data may be used to indicate a trend but cannot not really be used to give accurate temperature data, high or low. Not my words, but NASA’s own web site.
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Even if anthropogenic global warming were a real thing, there has NEVER been a time in human history when natural warming has been a bad thing for civilisation. I always ask climate catastrophists for an example and they can never provide one.
In fact, civilisation has always thrived during global warming such as the Minoan Warm Period, the Egyptian Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Climate Optimum (as it used to be called) and the Modern Warm Period.
In contrast during periods of natural cooling there is famine, war and disease.
In fact, Chinese civilisation is particularly sensitive to natural cooling. While they are profiting handsomely from supposed global warming through seeing increased manufacturing costs for the West (except the USA when it was under Trump) and profiting from solar panel sales to naive Westerners, they know we are heading toward global cooling and they know that has severe consequences for them. Hence the main reason they are buying agricultural land all over the world.
A graph of political catastrophes vs precipitation and temperatures in China can be seen at:
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d0f76684970c-pi
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How have wind and solar power faired in Northern China during the recent record cold spell compared to coal fired power stations?
With China alread mandating two new coal fired powerstations EVERY WEEK – expect this number to increase.
The population of India has just overtaken that of China – however India only emits 25% per capita CO2 emissions compared to China. Expect many more coal fired power stations in India as well.
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German TV Promotes Great Replacement Climate Plan: Stop Having White European Children ‘Aryan CO2 Emitters,’ Import Third World Migrants Instead
https://rairfoundation.com/german-tv-promotes-great-replacement-climate-plan-stop/
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Seems inherent in there is a data free assumption that third world migrants don’t copulate?
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A graph for USA on that –
“The Decline And Fall Of The American Empire”
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/GCh9DQfXsAAYrwE-600×498.png
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/12/29/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-american-empire-44/
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I think 2024 will see the fall of a Republic and the birth of an Empire.
Well maybe not birth, more of a coming out party.
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almost- they produce less CO2 coz they are shorter/lighter perhaps?
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ORF isn’t German but Austrian TV, both speak German, so far ok.
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Sydney’s Pro-Hamas, Hinduphobic Muslim Senator Calls for ‘Criminal Australia’ to Pay Climate Reparations to Pakistan
https://rairfoundation.com/sydneys-pro-hamas-hinduphobic-muslim-senator-calls-criminal/
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I suppose we could let them win a cricket match.
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Don’t tell “Elbowen” –
“Biden Dept of Energy Continues War on Consumers – New Fridge/Freezer and Fans Regulations Enacted
December 29, 2023 | Sundance | 58 Comments”
“We all know the routine. Water-saving toilets that don’t flush (flush twice), water/energy-saving dishwashers and clothes washers that don’t clean (run two cycles), lightbulbs that don’t light, dryers that don’t dry (run twice), and all the ancillary nonsense that comes from the intervention of the regulatory state.”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/12/29/biden-dept-of-energy-continues-war-on-consumers-new-fridge-freezer-and-fans-regulations-enacted/
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A postscript on the BOM article. Wasn’t it earlier this year that the BOM declared it was seeking to employ public relations people, rather than weather forecasters?
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Prof. Michael Hudson: World Predictions For 2024
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Here in Godzone, the low part of the high country, it has just been announced over local radio that ALL swimming pools in the shire will be closed today.
The reason for this, the temperature is so low that it just wont be worthwhile staffing these ammenities. Predicted high temps for today vary between 19 to 21 degrees C.
Bear in mind that we are one third of our way through summer, mean averages for Dec are about 24 -29 degrees C and we historically get the odd December day in the very high 30”s. As we wend our way through the “hottest, driest” summer evah, with 120mm of rain over Christmas and more predicted for New Years Eve we can all feel reassured that the BoM has got it right yet again.
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How disappointing; I was so looking forward to a swim instead of doing my weekly mow of the ‘long tongs’!
It’s such a warm day that I am wearing a warm fleece gilet plus a warm fleece jacket in the house. It’s 21C in and 19C out.
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It’s a big country. It is 33°C here or the more impressive sounding 90°F. The lawn can grow for another day.
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And Brisbane in the middle enjoying storms and hail
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AGW is a zombie narrative.
One of many.
Long after it’s dead, it still wanders campuses and capitols consuming brains.
And money.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-67651000
Proof, if needed, that the BBC is certainly not biased.
See the illustration of the last item, a high-chaur-sitying contest.
Caption –
“At the far end, Jacob Rees-Mogg wears his casual clothes and enjoys browsing a copy of Smash Hits.”
The photo is ‘from the 1930s’.
Expect the usual – verified – absolute neutrality from the BBC in covering the coming General Election in the UK, in 2024.
Auto
PS try finding a way of commenti g firectly to the BBC on any if their websites.
They have no interedt in viewers’, listeners’ or browsers’ input.
Whatsoever.
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“Crazy Stuff – Details of Results from Western Oil Sanctions Against Russia
December 29, 2023 | Sundance | 32 Comments”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/12/29/crazy-stuff-details-of-results-from-western-oil-sanctions-against-russia/
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India is playing by the rules and only paying the allowed ceiling price and there is no mention of nat gas.
last week Russia lost a qtr bill$ of fighters. How much discount oil must they sell to replace them?
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FWIW – Not sure where but another weather “bomb”
“Southeast SWEAT BOMB: Feels like 35C at 7am as tropical humidity bites”
https://mountain.pw/southeast-sweat-bomb-feels-like-35c-at-7am-as-tropical-humidity-bites
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Will be quickly forgotten, its always sipping drinks by the pool weather, dont you worry about that.
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Covid scientists issue warning new variant could cause global ‘heart failure pandemic’
Scientists have warned a new strain of Covid could cause potential heart issues.
Research into the the new strain known as JN.1, could cause “global healthcare risk” related to COVID-19, stating that it could start a “heart failure pandemic.”
Health experts have warned that there is an increase in the chances of potential heart issues for those who catch the disease.
Due to the influx of a new strain JN.1, there has been a spike in Covid cases in several countries, including the US, UK, China, and India in recent weeks.
https://www.gbnews.com/news/covid-scientists-warning-new-variant-global-heart-failure-pandemic
Uh huh…
And remember kiddies, a f@rt can cause blood clots.
Jeez, they’re getting desperate in their coverups! 😁
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They wish!
To hide the vax.
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The Holocene Thermal Max.
‘According to a new study, eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures were 1.5°C to 3°C “greater than the present” from about 11,000 to 7,000 years ago, when CO2 levels were approximately 265 ppm. Then the temperatures “followed a gradual decline towards present-day conditions”. (Notrickszone)
00
The Largest Wooden Wind Turbine In The World Has Been Switched On
Not the Babylon Bee…
With a total height of 150 meters (492 feet) including the blades, the turbine features a 105-meter (345-foot) tower constructed out of wood, according to the company behind the feat, Modvion.
As reported by BBC News, the tower’s 2-megawatt generator has started swirling and begun supplying electricity to the local electricity grid, providing power for approximately 400 homes.
The structure can be built on-site in seven sections with a total of 28 modules. This modularity makes the tower easier to transport via roads and sea, unlike conventional steel towers which can be hefty and awkward to move.
The turbine tower’s walls are made with 144 layers of 3-millimeter-thick laminated veneer lumber that have been glued and compressed together. The wood came from about 200 spruces, the same species used for Christmas trees, all of which were sustainably farmed.
https://www.iflscience.com/the-largest-wooden-wind-turbine-in-the-world-has-been-switched-on-72241
Flatpack – Ikea strikes again!
Place your bets now on longevity.
At least when it falls apart they can use it for for firewood.
10
That amount of glue would require a lot of dead horses or a lot of petroleum product.
40
I read the BBC puff piece several times.
I didn’t notice anything on the lines of –
“No horses were harmed in the making of the hectolites of glue for this virtue-signalling tower” …
I wonder why.
Auto
10
Chrissy Bowen will have an orgasm when hears about this wooden Wind Turbine – now Australia can use the wood of the native forrests being destroyed to build wind turbines.
10
I think he’ll find a vast difference in timber grade between spruce (particularly aircraft grade) and what they are knocking down there.
Years ago there was a “Frank and Ernest” cartoon on the subject of “Unrealised expectations” which any mention of Bowen brings to the fore
20
” …..providing power for approximately 400 homes.”
Oh no it won’t
another BS red flag statement.
00
Colossal storm smashes Brisbane and ALL TV and radio signals are knocked out on the Gold Coast as giant hail is reported, a car is struck by lightning and flights heavily delayed.
How many solar panels have been destroyed by this colossal storm????
If you are going to be struck by lightning being in a car is the safest place to be since a car acts as a Faraday Cage.
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Labor orders review of weather warning systems after criticism of Bureau of Meteorology
The Australian emergency management minister, Murray Watt, has ordered a review of weather warning systems after criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology.
The bureau has been criticised for its forecasting and weather warning systems after ex-tropical cyclone Jasper in Queensland’s far north and the Christmas Day storms that lashed the state’s south-east.
When Jasper made landfall residents of the Cairns suburb of Holloways Beach reported only receiving major flood warnings after already being isolated.
On the Gold Coast, one of the hardest hit regions in south-east Queensland, the mayor, Tom Tate, said it was “unforgivable” that a weather warning went out to residents after Christmas Day storms had already passed through.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/30/labor-orders-review-of-weather-warning-systems-after-criticism-of-bureau-of-meteorology
An “Investigation”. LOL.
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Wu Flu: How to think about sudden deaths and v injuries
00
Nothing better than a bogus anthropogenic crisis to provide cover for a real anthropogenic crisis.
I had an encounter with a friend yesterday, and had not realized the depth of his TDS.
He is also up to date on his V schedule, so I should have known.
The point being, the undoing of the Great Mass Formation, if it can happen, is going to be very painful and possibly more dangerous than the formation, especially to those of us that were hysteria resistant.
My friend’s quick irrational anger is likely a subconscious realization of having bought into false narratives.
We Climate Sci geeks have had a front row seat to the development of this culture state of dual realities.
‘Climate Change’ kills but the vax saves lives’?
The ‘Science Age’ in which we had naive faith, is under new and nefarious management.
10
FWIW
“The Strange Case of the Exploding Wind Turbine”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/12/29/the-strange-case-of-the-exploding-wind-turbines/
Read it all!
00
FWIW – Covid admissions –
“Grand Inquisitor Says Oops”
“Five months ago, an organization that seeks political consensus hosted him for some frank talk about what happened. Here is what he had to say:”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1740203189717369309
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/12/29/grand-inquisitor-says-oops/
00
That via SDA
00
I watched half of the long version. This is no coming together, Collins in particular is adamant that he “done no wrong” and that thousands would have lived had they just done what they were told, using China as a political example. He clearly blamed lack of censorship. He believed the 95% efficacy at the start and never recanted before I quit.
10