Weekend Unthreaded

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Running out of time in the Holocene…

At some point, the ice sheets want their land back

We’re balanced at the end of a ten-thousand-year warm spike, in an ocean of ice-ages, reshaping our economy to try to stop a half a degree of warming.

Those glaciers are coming… | Photo by Diego Delso

The last million years have been whipsawing climate action. While modern Homo sapiens sees two degrees of warming as an apocalypse, for most of the last million years it would have been God’s gift to Pleistocene man.

….

Ken Stewart compared the current interglacial with the last three, and found our favourite – the Holocene — has already run longer than all of last three did.*

Global Warming or Global Cooling: Keep an Eye on Greenland

Ken Stewart

There are several ways of identifying the start and end of interglacials. I have chosen points when Antarctic temperatures first rise above zero and permanently fall below zero relative to 1999. Graph 3 shows the length of time between these points for the previous three interglacials compared with the Holocene.

The Holocene has lasted longer than the previous three interglacials: and is colder.

The point […]

Saved by a pyroclastic-winter? Man-made Mega wildfires cause climate cooling

….

Who knew? Climate change causes horrible wildfires but these dump aerosols in the sky which causes cooling which will in theory, stop more bushfires. It’s another feedback loop the models got wrong.

One author even admits the models “have to take fires into account” — which is the same as saying that their robust settled science of the last thirty years was wrong.

It has all the hallmarks of high quality astrology. The science writing is full of colorful vagaries like “vast amounts of energy”, and “overwhelming evidence” without ever spelling them out. There is spooky inference: we “suspected the world might be witnessing something new”. And then there are the vague predictions: if we scale these fires up by (pick a number) we either set off a nuclear winter or we are turbo-charging climate change. That provides excuses for the next fail in any direction.

If only the ABC had real science reporters they could have asked real questions.

h/t Eric Worrall, WattsUpWithThat (and RicDre)

Super-outbreaks of fire thunderstorms could change Earth’s climate, Australian and US experts warn ABC Weather / By Ben Deacon Fire thunderstorms during Australia’s Black Summer released as much energy as about […]

The battle worth fighting for: Let us and our doctors choose what medicine we take

Adriana Midori Takara,

Adriana Midori Takara was only 38 when she died of Covid in Australia last week. She instantly became a posterchild for the vaccine advertising campaign. But the true story may be something else entirely. Rebecca Weisser treads where few dare: Adriana’s family tried to get her ivermectin, which may have have saved her, but even though they found a doctor willing to try, he was not allowed to.

The Guardian and MSN both report relatives saying she wanted but had been unable to get any vaccine. But Rebecca Weisser reports that other journalists heard she was vaccinated, and asked whether she had a vaccine dose. The NSW authorities, who would surely be very interested in her vaccine status, won’t answer that question.

Meanwhile no one is turning the latest 44 and 48 year old victims of Astra-Zenica side-effects into posterchilds for anything. Where are their photos?

This is the battle worth fighting for.

The fastest way to stop lockdowns is by allowing every doctor and patient the choice to use cheap antivirals, not just limit their choices to drugs that earn their manufacturers $45billion dollars. Ivermectin can be used prophylactically to prevent as many as […]

Thursday Open Thread

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The Not so Clean Green Future: Germany uses 20% less wind, and (wow) 38% more coal

Coal is dead, an old relic, but Germany is burning a lot more coal

If the world cools and gets cloudier will renewables stall as margins become even less appealing? Will wandering jet streams interrupt reliable trade winds as the intersection of hot and cold air generates more clouds over solar panels?

German Wind Power Consumption Plummets 20% In First Half 2021… Coal Power Consumption Jumps 38%!

Pierre Gosselin

What would we do without coal?

The first half of 2021 saw a massive 20% drop in wind power consumption in Germany…while “coal power saw a renaissance.”

The reason for the steep drop, according to the findings, was due to unfavorable weather conditions.

The Germans ran out of wind both on and off shore. People stopped investing because the subsidies ran out and the populace insisted on not having the giant industrial plants in their backyard. Then the winds slowed (why didn’t their climate models see that coming?) Europe talked itself out of building gas plants in order to stop global warming, then got an extra cold winter, and they also run out of gas. So what was left was good old reliable […]

Flash floods will be more common, say climate scientists right after flash floods happen

In the Great Pagan Tradition of neolithic fortune telling, modern climate witchdoctors predict everything right after it starts

Last year it was droughts and bushfires. This year its floods. If only the climate models worked, they could have warned the people of Europe, China and India that there would be rampant flooding before it happened.

Imagine a world where climate models worked and they could give people three months notice?

Flash floods will be more common as climate crisis worsens, say scientists

The Guardian

Dr Jess Neumann, a hydrologist at the University of Reading, said: “Flooding from intense summer rainfall is going happen more frequently. No city, town or village is immune to flooding and we all need to take hard action right now if we are to prevent impacts from getting worse in the future.”

As usual, to stop floods, the first recommendation is cutting greenhouse gas emissions. If only the UK had put in more windfarms, they might have avoided this flash flood in London!

They don’t mention how climate models have no skill in predicting rainfall, or low solar activity is associated with central European floods, and that Asian rainfall has been linked […]

Tuesday Open Thread

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9.1 out of 10 based on 10 ratings

Get serious about Borders: The biggest failure in NSW was letting one limo driver get infected

UPDATE: New readers might find it hard to get their head around this post. Stick with me. There is a path to freedom from masks, mandatory vaccines and from Chinese bioweapons. But we must plan ahead and understand virology. Strangely, the tool no one wants to mention is Sovereign Borders.

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There might have been no lockdown in Sydney (and then Melbourne, Perth, and Brisbane) if that one Limo driver had been protected

Nobody is talking about the best way to stop lockdowns in Australia — stop the virus leaking in through shoddy quarantine in the first place. “Hard Borders”.

Odds are, we could have stopped the July lockdowns if we made sure drivers of flight crews and international arrivals weren’t put at risk. It’s not about vaccines, which reduce but don’t stop people catching the virus, it’s about a $50 type solution that stops a billion dollar lockdown. The economy of a city of five million (and indirectly the rest of the nation) is relying on just leaky vaccines, masks and hand sanitizer when there are so many better options.

So far, thanks to one leak, 2,227 people have been infected, 10 people have […]

Carbon Capture fails again: Chevron spends $600 a ton to bury fertilizer under the NW Shelf

Stuffing a useful gas into holes under the ocean is harder than they thought

Chevron spent $3 billion to put just 5 million tons of carbon dioxide under the ocean floor. The project was plagued with delays and problems with sand clogging the machinery. They captured about one fiftyth of the Chevron emissions in a five year period.

CCS is a modern industrial talisman: Chevron concedes CCS failures at Gorgon, seeks deal with WA regulators

Reneweconomy

Chevron is understood to have spent more than $3 billion building the carbon capture facility, but it took several years after the start of gas production for the Gorgon CCS project even to begin operation due to delays and technical difficulties. The first CO2 was injected into an undersea deposit in 2019.

It is understood regulators may ask Chevron to offset the emissions it failed to store by purchasing offsets from either local or international carbon markets. If Chevron is made to buy Australian Carbon Credit Units, which currently trade at above $20 per tonne, the cost to the company could easily exceed $200 million.

So they could have done it all 30 times cheaper. (Or, if they […]

Weekend Unthreaded

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What climate disaster? The Great Barrier Reef has more coral growing on it than ever recorded

The coral cover as sampled by AIMS across the entire Great Barrier Reef is not just good, but better than it has ever been in the 36 years they have been studying it. If the reef is in danger — it’s from being overgrown with coral. Climate Change, such as it is, has caused no trend at all.

If anything, in the spirit of modern-media-science, climate change causes record coral growth.

Tonight the UN scientists decided not to list the reef as “in danger”. The ABC and every Green group who normally follow UN scientists slavishly said that was “only because of lobbying”.

Record Coral Cover on the Great Barrier Reef.

The new AIMS report on Monday showed the Great Barrier Reef had a remarkable recovery, but the graphs were of three different sections of the reef (North, central and South). Peter Ridd obtained all the data and combined it to make one graph and discovered that the coral cover of 2020 was a new all time record high.

Strangely none of the government agencies or paid Professors discovered this. You have to be unemployed to discover record coral growth.

Science and media doomsayers ignore good news on […]

Israel data: Vaccines only 16% effective after 6 months but still prevent 86% hospitalization

Good and bad news about long term vaccine effectiveness is coming out of Israel. Protection from catching Covid plummets after a few months. Only 1 in 6 people who were vaccinated against Covid in January still have enough protection left to stop themselves catching and spreading Covid. The good news is that five out of six still have good protection against hospitalization and severe disease.

Thanks to David Archibald who says “The coronavirus vaccines are an immunological Potemkin village”

The Israeli data above is what sent the markets sliding on Monday. Ouch!

Vaccine efficacy in Israel from people vaccinated in January, Febuary, March and April this year.

Forget herd immunity and Vax-passports

The new results mean taking a vaccine is more a personal decision about risk benefits, less “one for the team”, though it may reduce the risk of transmission. Toss out the idea that a vaccination passport offers meaningful protection and get used to the idea that people can and will catch Covid from the double vacced. There is little medical justification for giving extra rights or free access to vaccinated people.

Israel used the Pfizer vax mostly.

Efficacy against infection, asymptomatic and symptomatic, falls […]

Men worse for climate change than women (so if enough transition, will that stop the floods?)

Men cause all the bad things (except for this study which mostly written by women):

Men Are Worse for Climate Change Than Women Because They Love Meat and Cars

By Anya Zoledziowski, Vice

Men emit 16 percent more greenhouse gases than women because they tend to spend more money on fuel and eat more meat, among other things, a new study has found.

It’s just another man-hating, high-fashion opinion article with a peer reviewed badge and some meaningless data.

With similar reasoning I might as well write: “Women are bad for climate change because they live longer and love hair dryers.” We all know women like to turn up the heater too. And they have babies, that’s got to be bad.

But men, clearly, were the target du jour, and the “experiment” such as it wasn’t, was to compare spending of single men and single women, as if we could get finer control of atmospheric systems by getting boys to drive less, eat more indoor lettuce (that’s a thing) and get their furnishings secondhand off Gumtree.

I’m sure men eat more meat than women but they also have bigger bodies, more lean mass and need […]

Thursday Open Thread

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9.5 out of 10 based on 16 ratings

Indonesia and the ivermectin donation the goverment wrecked…

The people of Indonesia look like they found a way to manage things without the government, the WHO or the UN.

File it under: Big-Government kills

Indonesia has 270 million people and very little Covid — or at least, it didn’t. It turns out a philanthropist was dishing out ivermectin in one of the “largest ivermectin markets worldwide”. Then the government took it over, insisted on clinical trials, and slowed it down, as governments do. Cases rose from 7,000 cases a day on June 12th to 50,000 cases a day by July 18th.

Looking at the success of Covid in India, Mexico and Peru as well, how many days of lockdown could have been avoided if Australia used cheap antivirals? Not only could the latest NSW outbreak be crushed sooner, but if one limo driver had used ivermectin — it might never have started.

How much does Big-Bureaucracy hate cheap out-of-patent drugs?

Indonesian cases of Covid. Graph. OWID

Two weeks after the clinical trials began, Ivermectin and a whole rash of antiviral drugs was suddenly given emergency approval. Perhaps there was panic?

July 15th; BPOM Approves Ivermectin as Covid-19 Therapeutic Drug

But the Bureaucrats must be […]

What a recovery! Hottest ever year causes… coral reefs to grow

Life bounces back

The Great Barrier Reef has had a good year. 2020 might have been the hottest or the second hottest year on record, but it was a bonanza year for reef recovery.

The reef covers 344,400 square kilometres, survived the Holocene Optimum, the Minoan warming, the Roman warming and the Medieval Warming, and is already recovering from a streak of few nasty El Ninos and a cyclone or two.

But the bottom line is that coral deaths are not easily relateable or predicted by hot weather or high CO2. If sea level changes or temperature volatility are the real culprits, the ocean currents or cloud cover may be the driver, and not the number of cars or solar panels in Australia.

As Peter Ridd has said for years: The Great Barrier Reef has about the same amount of coral as it did in 1985

Coral Cover, Northern Great Barrier Reef.

 

What a difference a few years makes. Where, here, is there any sign that either CO2 or high temperatures is a problem?

Coral Cover, Central Great Barrier Reef.

 

The trend appeared to be “all down” in 2011, but neither heat nor El […]

Tuesday Open Thread

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8.7 out of 10 based on 17 ratings

A world protected by windmills? In 1717 Christmas Floods in Germany killed 14,000

With great sympathy for all our European friends. It’s like European history doesn’t exist.

In 1717 on Christmas Eve a flood started that killed 14,000 people and spread across the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. It was followed by savage frosts, and more floods in February of 1718.

So much for the theory that solar panels, windmills, or global cooling will save us from floods.

In the Little Ice Age, the floods were vast, common, and very, very cold.

Daily Mail, Christmas Floods 1717

How one of the most devastating storms in European history killed 13,700 people in 1717

Daily Mail, Dec 2017

On a chilly Christmas Eve three centuries ago, one of the most devastating storms in the history of Europe smashed into the coastlines around the North Sea, killing over 13,000 people, annihilating thousands of houses and wrecking countless farms.

The apocalyptic weather caused enormous floods to submerge coastal areas in the Netherlands, Northern Germany and Denmark by Christmas Day.

As the surviving population struggled with the wind and the waves, Arctic gales spread across the continent and caused a crippling frost to descend on […]

They Thought They Were Free — Living in Nazi Germany during the transition

Thousands were asleep at the wheel, occupied with busywork, and an endless trail of minor crises. Each little step was worse than the one before, inexorably, but only a little worse. Like a field of corn that we never see growing — but one day it is over our head.

There is no time when everyone realizes together and lifts in mass protest. Instead, little moments tip the balance, one person at a time. And once awake, good people don’t want to be troublemakers. They are afraid to stand out.

Its all so human while it becomes something so horribly inhumane.

The form of the nation stays the same but the spirit changes to become something people would never have accepted even five years earlier. Like perhaps the idea that people who committed, at most, a minor misdemeanor, a trespass, could be kept without charges in solitary confinement for months on end.

We are a gregarious species. It is hardwired. Our great strength is also our greatest vulnerability…

So many wait for someone else to speak up.



 

Excerpt from pages 166-73 of They Thought They Were Free: The Germans, 1933-45. They interviewed 10 Germans who talked […]