JoNova

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Urgent new medical theory on Coronavirus: hold the ventilators, stop blood clots instead

For doctors or nurses reading — there’s a call to share this widely

An information event on this online SUNDAY April 12 8pm US Eastern time. (Open, free to anyone who wants to listen). That’s 10am Monday morning EST Australia.

This is not the flu. Most of the time apparently it’s not ARDS either.  Coronavirus it turns out — is a vascular disease as much as lung disease. In fact in 70-80% of ICU patients putting them on a ventilator straight away may make the situation worse.

Currently patients in ICUs have about a 50:50 chance of making it out alive. The odds are terrible. Doctors have been reporting how people can degenerate suddenly into a life threatening crisis situation. Now, perhaps this explains it. This kind of hypothesis is one of the reasons we really want to crush the curve, now, because we are so underprepared and there is so much to learn. If this is right it will save many lives.

This could solve several mysteries at once

This virus causes heart damage, it raises clotting factors. People seem fine, then they relapse.

One recent paper found people with high levels of D-dimer, a clotting factor, are the most likely to die. In another mystery, some autopsies show heart damage and inflammation occurred, yet there was no virus present in the heart tissue. It also explains why people with heart disease and high blood pressure could be the most at risk group.

There are two different lung conditions in Covid patients; one is not ARDS

The news from ICU specialists is that Coronavirus patients are presenting with two very different lung conditions. The most common one is the L type (unknown til now) and these people still have an elastic working lung, but they are desperately in need of oxygen. The second type is the H type, which L types may degenerate to, which is worse, a heavy lung, filled with fluid, and is the ARDS-type crisis.

This virus appears to trigger a normal healthy vascular reflex in a diabolical way

In a normal infection if the small parts of the lung called the alveoli are filling up with fluid or pus, the blood circulation around it will squeeze or vasoconstrict. This forces the blood to flow to the other parts of the lung instead, where there isn’t so much damage, and blood can still pick up oxygen. That’s a good way for our vascular system to compensate and route blood around the damaged part of the lung.

The coronavirus is causing something similar to high altitude sickness

This reflexive vasoconstriction gets us into trouble at high altitudes where oxygen levels are low. Because the levels are ubiquitously low throughout the lung, the whole blood supply throughout the lung tries to constrict at once, which is a major problem. The back pressure in the pulmonary artery builds up right back to the heart. The pressure becomes so high it causes fluid to leak, and the thinnest, most delicate membranes are in the lungs. If these collapse, the fluid suddenly fills some alveoli and it’s a crisis. This condition is known as high altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE). In mountain climbers, it’s treatable, we just get the oxygen up (or the person down to where the oxygen is). That isn’t enough with Covid patients.

Something like this HAPE high altitude event seems to be occurring in Coronavirus patients due to the virus. Covid-19 binds to an enzyme involved in controlling the vasoconstriction. It targets and sticks to the ACE2 enzyme, stopping it working. Normally ACE1 raises angiotensin II and ACE2 lowers it. Angiotensin II raises blood pressure (ACE Inhibitors, the very common drugs against hypertension, act against ACE1 to lower blood pressure). So if the virus multiplies to the point it takes out all the ACE2, then there is nothing stopping Angiotensin from creating a vasoconstriction crisis (or a type of cytokine storm).

As the blood pressure builds it will force the fluids into the alveoli, flooding the lungs, dropping the oxygen levels in a vicious cycle. The high pressure may also increase blood clotting which could block flow, clogging up the blood vessels further. But the clotting problem may be due to antibodies against the virus.  At this point, the patient (I gather) probably does need a ventilator but the odds are awful and it’s remarkable that doctors can keep many people alive with this kind of damage rapidly spreading through the lungs and back to the heart.

 

 

Assuming this pans out, it will make treatment so much better and also help us figure out who is at risk of ending up in ICU. Is it genetic changes to the ACE2 enzyme which allow the virus to bind better? Is it people who produce more ACE2 (or less)? It opens lots of questions about ACE inhibitor drugs.

ABBREVIATIONS

HPV: Hypoxic Pulmonary Vasoconstriction

HAPE: High Altitude Pulmonary Edema

Type L patients:  They have good lung elasticity – i.e. A low ventilation to perfusion ratio. Most patients start this way but some in ICU may progress to Type H where fluid may fill the lungs and make them heavy.

REFERENCES and RESOURCES

Free Online Event Dr. Seheult is speaking at on Sunday, April 12: https://awr.org/health

Gattione (2020)  Covid-19 Pnumonia different respiratory treatment for different phenotypes?

Marik, Paul (2020) COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL, EVMS Critical Care Management Protocol

Marik, Paul (2020) Covid Protocol

Worldometer – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

 

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Rating: 9.5/10 (62 votes cast)
Urgent new medical theory on Coronavirus: hold the ventilators, stop blood clots instead , 9.5 out of 10 based on 62 ratings

245 comments to Urgent new medical theory on Coronavirus: hold the ventilators, stop blood clots instead

  • #
    tonyb

    Interesting. I seem to remember this notion was floated some 6 weeks ago and there was then a scare that certain ACE inhibitors and other heart drugs should be perhaps be avoided and people asked their GP’s for alternatives.

    Then the medical establishment seemed to be saying that actually the heart drugs that thin the blood or slow the heart are actually good for you.

    It has been said for some time that those with hyper tension and heart disease are most at risk and also those with obesity and diabetes. Bearing in mind that the generally young and fit, who seem to have the least problems with CV, will on the whole be less likely to suffer from the four illnesses mentioned, quite what the connections are and what the other factors may be, remains to be seen.

    Bearing in mind the huge amount of research into this virus it is to be hoped that some definitive answers are found as to what we are actually dealing with, then we might be better able to combat it.

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  • #

    This hypothesis has also been discussed at the now appropriately named Small Dead Animals.
    Wuhan Flu: “This is a completely new disease”

    70

  • #
    williamx

    Quote:

    “For doctors or nurses reading — there’s a call to share this widely”

    End quote.

    I would like to add that for the rest of us,

    there is also a call for us to share this with our friends and family members whom are doctors or nurses.

    My sister works in oncology, My brother in law is a paediatrician.

    I will pass the information on

    100

    • #
      farmerbraun

      I’ll get it to my “friends” up at the hospital for “peer review”.

      Rest Home deaths now taking off in NZ. The one thing we HAD to do ; protect the vulnerable who could not protect themselves. And the government did exactly the opposite.
      I can’t help being really angry about this because of my absurd view that they knew what they were doing/not doing.

      140

      • #
        PeterS

        Why are you still so surprised? Governments too often do the opposite of what is right. Many of us here have pointed lots of examples of that over the years.

        100

        • #
          farmerbraun

          Because I thought it could never happen in NZ.
          Would I be foolish to want to have a lone soldier keep a short vigil at cenotaphs for the dawn of Anzac Day?

          60

        • #
          Steve of Cornubia

          Intensive care treatments and protocols are, for now at least, managed by actual health professionals, not governments.

          All that scurrying around for additional ventilators came at the behest of aforementioned ICU managers.

          But just imagining what the average ICU would look like if it actually was managed by pollies gives me the heebie jeebies.

          20

      • #
        mark14

        4 deaths is not taking off

        32

        • #
          AnnieM

          You don’t understand exponential growth, do you? A month and a half ago the confirmed total in the US was around 6 people. Now it’s over half a million.

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        • #
          AnnieM

          Bleeping comment software won’t let me delete duplicate posts.

          [right and why did you hit the post button three times?] ED

          00

  • #
    george1st::)

    Hmmm , well you learn by your mistakes .
    The human body is a very complicated piece of machinery as is the Earths atmosphere .
    Scientists can only know what they know , but never what they don’t know .
    Oxygen levels in the blood stream are important but perhaps the ventilators over do the situation .
    Then the brain tells the heart have a rest , we are ok now .
    Then we have a different problem .
    Life is complex , death is final .

    70

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      That’s a good point.

      People don’t seem to realize that the most dangerous gas for humans is Oxygen.

      It’s interesting, and crucial, to understand that the brain monitors CO2 levels in the bloodstream and if CO2 falls below a specific level the signal for the next breath is not sent and that’s it.

      The elderly are far more sensitive to low bloodstream CO2 levels than healthy youngsters.

      The brain doesn’t monitor bloodstream oxygen levels.

      Maybe people on mechanical ventilators are being sent off by oxygen induced alkylosis rather than CV19?

      Breathing is a very complex process.

      KK

      20

  • #
    TdeF

    The pharmaceutical industry has been attacking aspirin for decades now and pushing paracetamol. So I wonder if the much vilified aspirin would be very beneficial? Pain relief for the fever but also blood thinner and anti clotting agent.

    132

  • #
    Broadie

    As the blood pressure builds it will force the fluids into the alveoli, flooding the lungs, dropping the oxygen levels in a vicious cycle. The high pressure may also increase blood clotting which could block flow clogging up the blood vessels further. But the clotting problem may be due to antibodies against the virus.

    A symptom of a COVID-19 infection is therefore I assume increased blood pressure. Blood pressure alarms would be indicating this situation in an Emergency Room or ward. How are the Doctors treating this symptom and is it being reported?

    50

    • #
      Broadie

      In fact, quite a falsifiable hypothesis. Lets see the charts where blood pressure is increasing and Saturated Oxygen is decreasing.
      These are two standard and easily measured parameters in any hospital or even in a home.

      70

      • #

        Broadie, specifically they mentioned Pulmonary Blood pressure, Pulmonary edema. With alveoli already under attack it might not take much extra pressure in the lung circulation to start the leaking. Would it also generate systemic high blood pressure. Does angiotensin produced in the lung transport and drive whole body blood pressure or is it localized? Hoping a doc can pop in …

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        • #

          There’s the answer:
          “Professor Stefan Bornstein, a diabetes expert at King’s College London, said this is because two common complications of obesity — Type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure — weaken the immune system.

          He claims the infection can also send blood pressure soaring, which could be fatal in victims where it’s already high.”

          https://thewest.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-the-secrets-of-covid-19-revealed-and-what-scientists-have-found-so-far-ng-b881516800z ($)

          50

          • #
            Dipole

            That was a subscriber only link for me.
            Blood flow from the right side of the heart to the left should be consistent. That is, what the oxygenated blood in the lungs passes through to the left side should be equal. “Resistance” problems in the pulmonary system (CV damage is one) means high BP in this system plus lower blood flow to the left chamber of the heart. A sluggish arterial (left) flow puts the patient in danger of
            blood clotting.

            30

            • #

              Dipole. Thanks for the info.
              Because all blood is meant to go through the lungs (kinda useless if it didn’t) then safe to say a problem in the pulmonary zone must translate to a whole body problem fairly rapidly.

              The link to The West didn’t have any more medical detail anyhow. It was mere confirmation that Covid patients do suffer from high BP.

              I presume the BP must be higher in the pulmonary system (Though how would we measure that as distinct from armband body BP anyhow).

              20

    • #

      That’s an interesting thought. There must be many hundreds of records in many different countries of many different types of patients that will show the blood pressure records as the disease progresses

      70

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day all,
      Seems to me that this work is critical for patients who have progressed to the ICU. It also seems to me that an even better approach is to stop patients from needing the ICU, which can be achieved with Dr Zelenko’s (and others) approach using his “cocktail” of three known drugs, as detailed in:

      Rudy Guilliano interviews NY Dr Zerenko Video on hydoxychloroquine treatment. 41 mins. Excellent.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=1TJdjhd_XG8&feature=emb_title

      The justification for his approach is well explained in Dr Seheult in his video #34, showing the need for zinc.

      Role of chloroquine in take up of zinc into cell nucleus. Video. 17 mins.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&feature=youtu.be

      Both the above links were supplied by other people in previous replies to Jo recently.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      40

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Thanks DoCiO.

        What a pity Rudi didn’t have a better interview technique. It was even worse than the one-eyed lefty Fran Kelly on their ABC.

        Let the person being interviewed speak, for goodness sake, without the constant interruptions. Let him finish his sentence. Sheez!

        Dreadful interview. Great information, but what a performance!

        21

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          Interesting response. My impression was quite the opposite as Rudi only seemed to interrupt to get a clear understanding of something, like a medical term he’d not heard before, but which sounded important to him. And such a contrast to the ABC techniques.
          Cheers
          Dave B

          00

  • #
    TdeF

    And I read pundits attacking people’s ability to isolate, that they will not tolerate lock down, that there will be a revolt.

    Hitler had the same opinion during the blitz, but people went to work every day and others cleaned up the rubble even when 30% of London was destroyed.

    The British, Arthur ‘bomber’ Harris had the same opinion of the Germans, that they would turn on their leaders. But they went to work every day and others cleaned up the rubble even when whole cities were flattened.

    Unlike either campaign of terror, this one will be very short if people self isolate for a few weeks and stop the rapid infection. At the same time they are silently killing the virus by denying it new victims. And freeing the hosptials to give the seriously ill the best chance of survival.

    Still I read that this lockdown will be forever, the country will be ruined, the people will not take it any longer and that it won’t work and it’s anybody’s fault but the Chinese who released this and covered it up.

    In fact it’s going very well. Infections in Australia are down x5, not up. Fluctuations are keeping them around 97 new infections a day and there are still cruise people coming home with it, people who left in defiance of the instructions not to do so and now demand support. They should be billed if they can afford elective luxury trips at our great expense.

    And the whole world is in lockdown, except the Chinese who want to pretend things are normal. You would like to think so. Until this virus is utterly defeated, whole countries, cities will be in lockdown. On the other side, unlike wars which last years and devastate countries, it should not take long. Weeks not months.

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      My opinion as well. In the absence of a vaccine the only thing you can do is deny the virus new victims. If wwe don’t realize this it strikes me as just plain foolish.

      181

      • #
        MP

        Don’t worry Roy. there will be a vaccine soon, you can have mine as well. I believe you will also get free chips with that.

        23

    • #
      Crakar24

      I beg to differ, this will take months and even then there will be cases

      21

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Possibly so, in which case we change strategy. But I’m hard put to figure out a better way to deal with what amounts to a deadly killer.

        80

        • #

          Vigilance and testing and the preparedness to drop regions back into a two week hard lockdown when they have outbreaks will miminize the impact. We know what we need to do. If we do it faster — when the first case shows — we beat it faster. With hard borders and fast testing it can be managed. As soon as any approved clean nation shows an outbreak we have to quarantine travellers from there.

          141

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Jo,

            That sounds good but do you really see it happening in today’s world. In America we can hardly agree to be civil when it comes to disagreement. Right here in this thread, look at the varying opinions. And our leaders, those who would have to coordinate your plan can’t all agree on how to beat CV19 right now.

            Generally the more decision points you have the greater the probability of failure. Sorry Jo but this time I have to disagree, not on the technical details but on the execution of those details.

            40

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Ah well Roy,
              If the USA can’t get it’s act together,
              Any Americans wanting to come here
              Will just have to do their 2 weeks paid quarantine
              To enter ur safe COVID Free refuge.

              Ditto for folks from elsewhere !

              A new industry for Oz !
              And probably New Zealand.

              31

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                I have been tempted to move to Oz, Bill. Unfortunately I never could figure out how to stand on my head or keep from falling off into space. I don’t know how you all do it.

                70

              • #

                Magnetic boots Roy. Australia is practically all iron ore.

                80

            • #

              But seriously — if the government treated people like adults and explained that they get their football, their jobs, and their holidays back as long as we have zero virus, I think people will be happy to wear masks, wash hands, and stay in for defined periods. The long extended threat of 6 months like this was unnecessary. (Though maybe not in poor crowded countries headed for winter).
              What the punters need to know is that no nation can afford “herd immunity” yet while the ICU situation is awful and the virus is so toxic to a small random percentage. Though that may change if the treatment improves dramatically.

              Plus, once countries start opening up and are able to start flights with Clean Nations, then won’t there be a huge carrot for most to do the right thing? The hard part will be for the poor and forgotten with nothing to lose (as always) and that small core of people who are spiteful or prone to terrorism.

              50

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Jo this is the way to reasonable future for Australia.
                But I wonder if some folks from elsewhere are envious of our lucky position
                And would prefer we were in the same deep sh#t as their own

                10

              • #
                Tel

                Why should we have “zero virus”?

                Did we vote on that?

                Is that applied to any other of the completely normal risks that everyone faces every day and has done every other year? What happened to us?!?

                21

              • #
                Sunni Bakchat

                Jo, I’d debate the order of priority that you’ve set out above. The general principles and means of achieving the desired outcome of “zero virus” is broadly agreed. The reality of actually achieving full eradication of the virus does not seem even remotely realistic in the near term despite the interpolation, extrapolation and outright dogmatic illogical indignation of some. If by “zero virus” you mean very small numbers of virus positives every year in Australia, that is possible over a number of years. However it is simply unrealistic for some to suggest that reduction to the latter level should come regardless of other than short term economic cost. It seems to me it should be a cost/benefit based balancing act as has always been the case. I don’t see why the rules would change this time around. Liberty and economy should come before tyranny and socialism. Justifying tyranny and socialism on the basis a small percentage of the public cannot be trusted is totalitarian, tyrannical and the origins of the police state, as the former UK Supreme Court Justice Johnathon Sumption remarked last week.

                If we look to the history of viruses around the world and took Smallpox (Variola major) as an example, we’d see a virus that began somewhere around 3000 years ago and really got going in the 1500′s in the Americas. Australia had its first case in 1789. Cowpox vaccines were invented in 1796. It was declared eradicated by the World Health Organisation in 1979, almost 200 years later. The last case occurred in Australia in 1938, 149 years after the first case. We may have been able to achieve the same quicker in Australia in the modern era. But how much quicker and at what cost? The world was motivated to eradicate Smallpox due to its 30% fatality rate (higher rate in pregnant women and children) and damage to survivors. By Comparison Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere around than 1% and Perhaps as low as .37% according to recent studies. The damage to survivors is minimal in the vast majority of cases we’ve seen to date. Covid-19 is the reverse of Smallpox in that it skews heavily toward older persons and those with co-morbidities. Comparison rather than absolutism is perhaps the most rational means of analysis.

                If we go to the diseases that we inoculate for in Australia we have a list that includes Diptheria, Tetanus, Pertussis, Polio, Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Hepatitis B. All still exist after decades of inoculation. We didn’t shut down the economy for any of them. We quarantined for some decades ago. We didn’t incarcerate people in their homes for any of these diseases. Case Fatality Rates for each disease except mumps, rubella and hepatitis b are worse the covid-19. As you know, we still don’t have vaccines for many nasty diseases despite decades of effort in some cases. We’ve eradicated Polio but its history in Australia is again worth mentioning. First cases of Polio found in Australia in the 1930′s. Vaccine in 1956. Eradicated in Australia in 2000. Last case in Australia was 2007 (offshore origination). 2019 still saw 94 cases worldwide. The point being that these diseases statistically have very long tails that last for decades that even the latest advances in technology and medicine cannot shorten to within a few years. These long tails have a diminishing return that don’t justify strangulation of economy and liberty. If the long tail were to be shortened in terms of infection rates it would suggest the period of deprivation of liberty and high economic cost should also be severely curtailed. But in which order? I’d argue it should be liberty and economy before infection rates beyond the short term (4-6 weeks). This would be a democratic rather than tyrannical approach. It appears we’re drifting into the latter without much thought.

                Australians should promptly take back (not be given back) their liberty and economy in the near future i.e. at the end of the short term of 4-6 weeks. Their football, jobs and holidays as you say, must be returned to them. The government would wisely bring about a policy of mandatory mask wearing and rapid random, broadscale and comprehensive testing to protect the public hospital resource. It should not be the other way round where liberty and economy is returned at some arbitrary point in the future when there is “zero virus”.

                The chances of being able to inoculate against this virus are as you know slim. If we’re dealing with “B” cells we might get lucky. If we’re dealing with “T” cells it’s not worth holding our breath until next year.

                Case fatality Rates are already dropping remarkably quickly. If matters don’t come to pass as suggested above, the emerging predicament we find ourselves in will only become far worse; with only marginal health benefit.

                As i stated in my original post, the way forward is masks and testing. The fact Australia seems to have become hung up at this point makes me very concerend at the quality of leadership the country is experiencing. Bluff, bravado and luck only work for so long.

                20

        • #
          Tel

          Worldwide it is no more deadly than a moderately bad influenza. It isn’t even up to the equal with a bad year like 2017, and tell me which country put it’s entire population under house arrest over flu?

          People don’t realise that flu is statistically quite dangerous: 4 May 1990 Jim Henson joked in a TV interview about having a sore throat, he was dead a few days later. But these kinds of common diseases usually kill old people, because old people are at the end of their natural lives and therefore weak, and vulnerable, and that’s always been the way of the universe … you gotta die of something. Suddenly everyone has decided that mortality must be outlawed, I assure you that’s a dumb idea, cops can’t arrest Death.

          Here’s a quick rundown from ABS 3303.0 (year 2018):

          Ischaemic heart diseases – 17533 dead, median age 84.7
          Dementia, including Alzheimer disease – 13963 dead, median age 89.0
          Cerebrovascular diseases – 9972 dead, median age 86.2
          Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung – 8586 dead, median age 73.6
          Chronic lower respiratory diseases – 7889 dead, median age 80.9
          Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus – 5420 dead, median age 77.0
          Diabetes – 4656 dead, median age 81.4
          Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue – 4612 dead, median age 78.2
          Diseases of the urinary system – 3384 dead, median age 86.8
          Malignant neoplasm of prostate – 3264 dead, median age 82.6
          Heart failure and complications and ill-defined heart disease – 3192 dead, median age 88.5
          Influenza and pneumonia – 3102 dead, median age 89.3

          Oh yeah and there’s this one for comparison:

          COVID-19 – 56 dead, not sure median age but lower than those above.

          Just think about this, for 25 million Australians locked at home if only 4 hours of each persons finite and limited lifespan is wasted you have wasted a total of 10,000 human years of life.

          That’s 10,000 human years of life (at least) wasted every single day of national house arrest.

          Not even going into economic loss, emotional distress, retirement savings gone, business bankruptcy.

          There is “no evidence” that this is even working.

          22

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Tel,

            I understand your point. But being 81 years old and suffering from a number of medical conditions I look on your, “Oh well, the old are going to die anyway,” attitude with alarm. It’s frightening. I don’t want to die, I have some good productive years left and I don’t want to be expendable. I’m a real person not a goddamned statistic. But because I now depend on others to a great extent they don’t want to bother with me.

            Medicare, into which I paid the asking price from it’s beginning until the very last cent of income before finally retiring at the age of 74, 10 years after the age at which most people will retire was very glad to have me keep on paying into the system. Oh, by the way, medicare was not voluntary, the money was taken from me without asking. But that involuntary deduction every payday would provide for my medical needs once I retired, a promise I now depend on.

            It doesn’t work that way however. The minute I began to be a little too expensive for the bean counters they changed their policy and began squeezing providers literally to the point of losing money by taking care of me. The hospital didn’t like that and began to look for a way out. They could dump me into a warehouse for those too stubborn to die if they could get my heart to behave like it was normal so they began using a drug that is dangerous if you have a heart condition to see if sedation would do the trick. It nearly killed me, Tel. Doctors who swear an oath to first, do no harm were willing to write me off to get rid of me. And between Medicare records, medical records and eye witness accounts I can make a strong case for all of that. Discovery at trial is going to be very interesting.

            My wife and a good friend discovered my condition, looked into it and my wife said, the hell you’re going to kill my husband and mounted a rescue effort. She called a doctor she could trust. He said get me to a hospital 45 miles away which she did. She literally walked off with me before anyone could comprehend what was happening.

            Once at my destination a chest X-ray showed that my lungs were filling with fluid and I was about to drown. After taking care of that I spent 3 hours in intensive care while they tried to stabilize me (read, save my life). I’m alright now Thanks to a wife who would dare to take action when action was needed. Thank God for her.

            I wasn’t going to mention any of this as m reason for disappearing for so long and I suspect Jo would rather I didn’t do it. But I’m doing it to show you, Tel and everyone how bad it can get when you make the old expendable, even a little bit expendable as you did. Why would you do that? We’re grandpa and grandpa to your children and believe it or not, they need us. We have life experience the young who think they should be running the world don’t have. And when they finally win control,as they surely will, they will screw everything up.

            Don’t ever write off the old, not even a little bit. We aren’t numbers in some statistical analysis, we aren’t numbers in a profit and loss analysis, We’re real people just like all the 20 year olds with their progressive ideas. And remember this above all else, someday you will be old and I don’t think a single person who reads this wants to even risk an ordeal like mine, much less go through it.

            60

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Apology for the typos. Early stage Alzheiner’s does not improve anything. Yes, I’m pretty sure the diagnosis is correct.

              40

            • #
              Annie

              Very well said Roy. I am a few years behind you, not many, and feel I have a lot of living to do yet; no wish to be someone’s statistic.

              30

            • #
              Tel

              Roy I understand you don’t want to die, nobody does.

              This does not give you the right to hold a gun to the head of 25 million people for your own benefit. Nothing would give you that right.

              If you cannot think of any alternative way to protect yourself then I’m sorry about that. Maybe think harder. The young people of the world deserve their lives too.

              10

  • #
    TdeF

    And this new explanation of a massive positive feedback system which blows up the heart and lungs with back pressure sounds right. The question is how to break the feedback loop. Or reduce the pressure. As before, I hope paracetamol which only blocks pain can be replaced with aspirin which attacks the inflammatory causes and whose beneficial side effects include blood thinning and inhibiting clotting. It would be ironic if it rescued the situation and a poke in the eye for the pharmaceutical industry which has never managed to produce anything better.

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  • #
    TdeF

    Front of the Australian today, one commentator called it a ‘life-wrecking future-destroying lockdown’. Such emotional nonsense. Lives are not wrecked nor the future destroyed.

    Some events or appointments have to rescheduled or cancelled this year, like the Olympics or the Australian Grand Prix or football games or a golf tournament. Tough for some. Europeans take six weeks off every year. The lockdown is annoying but hardly life wrecking. And the future is as bright as ever without all those funerals.

    Boredom is the most likely complaint and the unusual isolation of solitary confinement, but with all the luxuries of home. It is interesting how much people rely on the casual connection with others to feel content. Like dogs we humans are clearly emotionally pack animals, happiest in the pack or herd. Even proximity, conversation, not feeling alone is important to most. Self isolation is tough on many and for reasons they would not have imagined.

    It’s like that joke, if you were trapped on a desert island and could take one book, what would it be? If I could only take one book, I wouldn’t go.

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      Alfred

      Some events or appointments have to rescheduled or cancelled this year, like the Olympics or the Australian Grand Prix or football games or a golf tournament

      You are obviously living in a different world from 99% of the world’s population. Lockdown will kill far more people than this virus. You are totally unaware of the complexity of modern society. Most Americans have less than $1000 in savings. Try living on that for a few months in the USA. Credit card interest rates there are around 25%. A stay in a hospital overnight is A$1,500 – without any treatment or medication.

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        Bill In Oz

        It is interesting that some commentators from the USA
        Assume that other nations
        Are like the USA.
        Australia is very different.
        New Zealand is very different
        Canada is very different
        The UK is very different
        Ireland is very different.
        No to mention all the various European nations.
        And the developing countries.
        Each country has responded to this viral disease threat
        According to it’s own conditions and capacity.
        I’m coming to the conclusion that here in Oz
        We are doing pretty well compared to elsewhere
        By stroke of luck or half way decent government response.
        Or maybe our own particular national character.

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        Crakar24

        Alf, you cant spend money when you are dead

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      • #

        Due to massive debts the whole economy was teetering for years, bound to crash sometime, and the solution to that — “Helicopter Money” — was going to be delivered anyway. This just gave them the excuse.

        They could hardly lower interest rates any further. It is obvious the economy was grinding to a crises with or without a virus.

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        Kalm Keith

        Totally agree Alfred.

        Could someone please go find the TdeF who used to post on the CO2 Blog.

        If you are there TdeF, lower your view down from the Olympics to us please, we who had pride in the everyday work we did but never had more than a few weeks leeway stashed in the Bank.

        It’s been two weeks and the house sitting plebs are now very anxious, very anxious.

        Probably these people should be renamed: The Invisibles.

        Just maybe we are Crushing people along with the Virus.

        KK. Kurve Krusher.

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          MP

          Housing prices are falling.
          Banks are not extending credit.
          50% of all refinancing for housing rejected.
          The helicopter money is going into the banks to bail multinationals and hold the ASX. As in the US.
          We the people will not see this money, 30% of the Aus workforce was casual, they get nothing. The willingly unemployed got a pay rise.
          If you are paying off a house, visit some of his previous shows.

          Martin has good financial advice, I listen to this man. He only does financial, DFA. (I got out of stocks in feb)

          https://youtu.be/HRey3OqGVvA

          I am ripping my cash out of the bank, without attracting big brothers attention. If I am wrong I can always put it back in. If I am right?????
          The bailin laws scare me (Nahhh) as it was snuck through while the senators trying to insert a clause to protect or savings where out of the room.

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        markx

        Ah, I dunno Alfred.
        The Yanks were running the ‘ let it run free’ experiment.
        And it looks grim, and they changed course.
        Some infornativr charts here:

        Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total
        By Josh Katz and Margot Sanger-KatzApril 10, 2020

        https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

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        • #
          Alfred

          If you believe the NYT you need help my dear sir.

          The CDC has changed the way death certificates MUST be filled out by doctors. Essentially, anyone who dies from cancer and can be tested positive for any corona virus (there are 200+) MUST have Covid-19 on their death certificate.

          COVID-19 Alert No. 2March 24, 2020 (CDC)

          By the way, the CDC and the WHO receive massive funds from Bill Gates. Yes. The guy who has openly said that he wants to reduce the world’s population.

          https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Bill-Gates-Years-to-go.mp4

          By preventing funeral directors from doing their job, they have had to use refrigerated trucks. A con.

          The government pays hospitals for uninsured patients provided they have Covid-19. That is a cinch to fix as the test is almost meaningless. It is positive for ANY corona virus and it is an amplification test so that it will give a positive reading if you have a trace of any corona and your main problem is something else.

          The reality is that hospitals in the USA are struggling as they cancelled non-urgent procedures and the Covid-19 cases have failed to show up.

          Look guys. Try and work out who benefits from this massive deprivation of liberty and you will find that they were the ones who told us that the North Pole would be ice-free. Their objective is the same – to bring down the economy.

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          • #

            And yet the morgues overflow.

            Strange how all the cancer patients are dying more often during the coronavirus peak…

            10

            • #
              Alfred

              And yet the morgues overflow

              Hospital morgues are tiny. Bodies are not supposed to be stored there. Most people in New York die in a hospital. Death, like birth, is something that happens to all of us. When they stop undertakers from doing their jobs, morgues overflow. This is planned and deliberate.

              There are plenty of private videos on the internet showing that hospitals are not as busy as they pretend. It is easy for them to shift all the load to one hospital and then get the cameras rolling. They are playing politics. In New York, politics is very dirty. Not so long ago, they blew up 3 buildings and some semi-literate Saudis got the blame. But they did find the passport of their leader in the wreckage. :)

              Here are a couple of videos. Lots of others have been removed by Youtube

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqS0t2mIxEg

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bouR1nF5FbM

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              • #

                OK. And all those doctors and nurses in hospitals pleading in China, Iran, Italy, Spain etc are hamming it up for the cameras too?

                All hoping Trump loses in 2020.

                01

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              MP

              I only hear media reports of morgues overflowing, I see refrigerated trailers not plugged in on the street, when there is room for them in the yard.
              I see a drone hovering over a mass grave, in a vacant lot on the water front. why would you not go to a cemetery. It does not make sense it looks staged, people shovelling dirt when they have a bobcat. different soil type being back filled? do they want to float these out when it rains?

              10

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      Tdef

      Has the Australian govt come up with any figures as to the likely hit on your economy?

      . In the UK france and the US figures range from 6 percent to 25 percent with unemployment levels suggesting something towards the latter in America at least.

      Unless there is an immediate bounce back should lockdown finish very promptly and the economy shifts into top gear, this has the possibility of upending the world order with china becoming the dominant global force and your friends and allies reduced to impotency

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        TdeF

        As a primary producer, I would expect very little impact. Mining, farming.

        A very large proportion are in service and support industries, the public services including health and education, hospitality. A lot of those are being paid to stay home, so there is no change. And many public servants are doing nothing from home. Councils too.

        Parking inspectors have no cars to ticket and councils have no revenue from parking fines and the police from speeding fines, so that’s a loss to the economy. Caterers to football and other sporting fixtures with people eating at home. Alcohol consumption has gone up dramatically but at lower margins, drinking cheaply at home, so wholesale distributors are doing well. And delivery drivers and even on bicycles.

        The worst is that so many religious people are out of work at usually the busiest time of the year. So many have given Passover the passover.

        As early Easter morning starts with the sun over the park, Christ may have risen, but most people are still in bed.

        Perhaps the worst hit are the gas/petrol stations. Spare a thought for the government starved of those massive taxes. Prepare for Global Cooling.

        I expect we will bounce back.

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          So do I TdeF
          Us folks here in Oz are waiting it out.

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          RickWill

          Australia’s biggest earner is iron ore. It is still over USD80/t. Current spot price AUD132/t. At that price it will bring in AUD110bn this year. China’s steel production is still increasing.

          Coal is down on last year. Met coal going for AUD105/t so reasonable. Thermal coal is down to AUD55/t so it has been hit hard; about half of what it was 12 months ago. Gas spot price also about half but I think most is sold under long term contracts that are probably around the current price. Exchange rate is helping exporters.

          The drought has broadly broken in Australia with soil moisture in most growing areas above average. This bodes well for solid primary production in 2020. Forecasts for both volume and price of Australia’s agricultural products are above average for 2020-2021. Typically prime ministers who break droughts get long terms.

          Australia is paying less for major imports like petroleum and diesel. Expect that imported manufactured goods will be down. Car sales are down about 20%. Appliance sales are not down much about 2%. Computers and associated devices had a spike to set up home offices and home schooling. (Father Bob has a fund raising program for kids without the resources to get on line.)

          The rural communities that were hit by fires were begging for visitors two months ago but now some want road blocks so they are isolated.

          Many Australians are at home on paid holiday courtesy of new money creation by the government.

          Australias heavy road transport industry is no doubt working more efficiently than it ever has.

          Police are offsetting some of the lost revenue from speeding fines with fines for breaching isolating rules. A 16yo learner driver was fined $1600 for not complying with the isolation rules. She and her mother were about 14km from their home when fined.

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          • #
            TdeF

            Good numbers and ideas. As for that learner driver with her mother not self isolating, the police withdrew the fine after all the ridicule and adverse publicity.

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            Raving

            Who are the Chinese going to sell their steel to, apart from themselves?

            Rumor here is that all oil facilities in N. America will be filled to the top of their tanks in a few days. After that there is no place to put or store more very inexpensive petroleum products. The price will crash.

            Alberta bitumen oil will be worth zero dollars

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            • #
              RickWill

              I am surprised that the price of iron ore has held up. Steel price has been falling since January. That indicates demand is weak. We may see iron ore price reduction in coming months but it has held up remarkably well. Car production is way down but construction is not impacted in Australia.

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              • #
                Raving

                Expect residential construction will crash in Canada. Seem to build condos without limit. Industrial construction gets stifled by the green lobby. Maybe it will let up now

                20

          • #
            Alfred

            Australia’s biggest earner is iron ore

            I am no expert, but I expect that most of this is on long-term fixed-price contracts.

            Do expect the Chinese / Japanese / Koreans / Indians to come and ask for cancellation of contracts and a massive drop in price. That is what happens in a recession – let alone a depression. Don’t forget “the customer is always right”

            India has locked up 1.3 billion people. Unimaginable suffering illegally imposed by their megalomaniac of a prime minister. The same guy who cancelled all banknotes of $20 and above. Do you really think these guys care hoot about Australia?

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          MP

          I am also a primary producer, but on Earth.

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          MP

          Thanks for the badge.
          Fuel is going to go up.
          I work(ed) in mining, why the Iron ore price is holding when nothing is being built or bought can only mean stockpiling, buying without selling is a flogging to nowhere.
          Zn and Pb rely on construction and automobile. Cu also relies on people buying and building stuff.
          Beef prices are good and holding due to the live export, with Indo now being bought down, their industries will fail, the people are poor with no welfare system, these are the major buyers of the (LE) processed beef.
          50% of Australians will be unemployed, no restaurants, though some of that has swung to household, you will need/have to lower your prices. Cattle numbers for domestic slaughter will increase, the NT will bring its massive heard to the east coast for a short holiday.

          We have been here before Mate.

          Can your farm survive on a 50% reduction in produce sale price, your inputs are the same, but these will also go up as countries are holding fertiliser back from sale.

          Buts that’s my perspective of Earth.

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        farmerbraun

        NZ Treasury and Finance Minister will report this week. I’ll post it somewhere here.

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    • #
      farmerbraun

      Well you’re right provided that those who have been declared non-essential during the current emergency do not have that classification rolled over into the emerging economic depression in NZ.
      Because rolling it over will cause a reaction that can only be suppressed by more stringent lockdown. The police here have been unable to enforce the current loose lockdown ;the army will be needed for a more severe lockdown.

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      el gordo

      ‘Boredom is the most likely complaint and the unusual isolation of solitary confinement …’

      First world problem, they are a shallow lot, at least they can look at their hand and twitter.

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  • #
    PeterS

    OT but relevant: Krakatoa Eruption in Indonesia yet again and Volcanic activity is escalating in Iceland that has not erupted for 800 years. If these take off big time they alone could be enough to give us another crisis – volcanic winter worldwide. If that’s the case the global warming nut jobs will go more nutty. At least it will give PM Morrison an excuse to drop the emissions reduction nonsense and get Australia moving again using more coal fired power stations, not that he really needs an excuse.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      PeterS:

      Big eruptions from Krakatoa are about an average 600 years apart. Yes, there was one in 2018 which caused many deaths as part of the cone collapsed into the sea settling off a tsunami.
      The 1883 eruption did cause global cooling (at least in the northern hemisphere) and the noise was heard 3,000 kms. away. This latest was heard in Djakata 70 kms. away.

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        toorightmate

        Have we all forgotten the relatively recent Chinese earthquake which killed hundreds of thousands of people?

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    PeterS

    My turn to be moderated. Not a single word that would in anyone’s imagination be considered as prohibited.

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    PeterS

    Presumably research is already being conducted all over the world to decipher the virus and find out why it works the way it does. It’s too easy to jump to conclusions without such deep research, which unfortunately takes a lot of time. Meanwhile studies to find correlations would not go astray but remember that correlation is not necessarily causation.

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    So many opinions. So little knowledge. I think the intent is to debate the CV19 virus to death. After all, that worked well with climate change.

    Oops! Wait a minute. Climate change won, :-(

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    • #
      farmerbraun

      I still think that natural variability won, but it may still be to soon to say.
      I do think that globalism is still winning, but has changed its spots .

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        PeterS

        The jury is till out. Let’s see if other world leaders start following Trump’s lead and start procedures to get out of the Paris Agreement and stop treating the rest of us like fools by following the emissions reduction mantra. I’m hoping PM Morrison uses the current economic crisis as an opportunity to reset his thinking and act accordingly to support the building of new coal fired power stations in a big way.

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        Graeme No.3

        I suggest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grtV811cURU

        It is Sargon of Akkad ( looking remarkably healthy for someone 4,300 years old – unless of course it is assumed name) who gets dropped often by youtube for being too right wing, interviewing Piers Corbyn (brother of JC) who, even though he is a climate sceptic, doesn’t get called right wing (except by absolute loonies).
        The relevant part I want to draw attention to is the first 4 minutes. Bear in mind that this interview was in the last week of October 2019.

        Possible explanation for the huge expenditure by countries and the repeated efforts by the Democrats in the USA trying to add “global warming” projects to the list of things funded.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          I’ll bet Joaar of Anaguare can interview more controversial experts in lees time than Sargon can. Of course he’s only about 500 years old and cant compete with Sargon for age but otherwise he’ll get the job done faster nevertheless. What say you, is it a match? I’ll let you do the timing. ;-)

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I’ve been waiting for the comment of the day.

      That’s it. You win Roy.

      Opinions / Knowledge / Debate.

      KK. Kurve Krusher.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        But KK, you haven’t read my novel yet so you don’t know what Joaar of Anaguare can do. So don’t jump the gun.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Just something on a lighter note for a few chuckles as we proceed to debate the fate of the world here. :-)

          20

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Which World, Roy?

            The one we live on?
            The one your Joaar of Anaguare lives on?
            Or the one most Greenies live on?

            20

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              He comes from the now long gone planet, Anagare. He was born in space as the starship fled he destruction of Anaguare, their beloved home by the nova of their sun. He was promoted through the ranks to Chairman of the ship (captain to you}. I think he said something about the nova being named, Jo? I’m not sure.

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            • #
              Roy Hogue

              This world, of course.

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  • #

    [...] Nova reports a new angle This is not the flu. Most of the time apparently it’s not ARDS either.  Coronavirus it turns [...]

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  • #
    Ross

    I have no medical expertise but I picked this up earlier before reading Jo’s post.

    “Dr. Smith has been treating coronavirus patients at the Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health in East Orange, New Jersey.
    Dr. Smith revealed that in his treatment of coronavirus patients he has not seen a single patient severely affected under the age of 70 who was not diabetic, pre-diabetic or obese.”

    Does diabeties fit into the above idea?

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    • #
      Sunni Bakchat

      Ross, There’s a Diabetes linkage to Nitric Oxide deficiency and inflammation as discussed in my post below. There are several google-able articles discussing the linkage. Something to be explored in the coming days.

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    • #
      farmerbraun

      Hypoglycaemia does lead to many different adverse outcomes, including the ones you mention.
      But it is rarely identified; usually only after it has progressed to something much worse.

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    • #
      Jeffrey Dun

      “Does diabeties fit into the above idea?”

      It certainly does. Dr Kraft, who pioneered the study of insulin wrote: “Based upon my several thousand autopsy examinations, the pathology of diabetes is atherosclerosis. The pathology begins when the blood sugars are normal”.

      Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) is widespread and there have been studies that show that there is a great deal of undiagnosed T2D in the Western world; ie, while the blood sugars are normal the individual is insulin resistant IR (ie pre-diabetic).

      T2D and IR is so widespread it is often referred to as a modern epidemic. The resulting raised insulin levels causes significant damage to the endothelium, which leads to atherosclerosis and an increased risk of death from a heart attack.

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  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    Just wanted to repost below from yesterday due to relevance to today’s post. Hope it helps –

    Sad, but intriguing to see a percentage of younger people without co-morbidities dying. Especially given the cardiopulmonary nexis.

    The effects of Hypoxia are well known amongst those who live at high elevation (>5000ft Above Mean Sea Level). The statistical distribution of adaptability to high elevation environments sounds very similar to Covid-19. It is very common for people across all age groups with no co-morbidities to suffer from hypoxia. There is no known explanation for this phenomenon. It is also common for those with known commonly occurring co-morbidities to also be affected by hypoxia.

    Hypoxia symptoms most commonly include shortness of breath, headache, dry cough, elevated heart rate and breathing, nausea, fatigue and hypertension. Severe symptoms include heart attack and alveolar lung inflammation. This raises the question as to whether Covid-19 described symptoms are actually symptoms of hypoxia rather than inimitably Covid-19. if this is the case, the question arises as to the body’s ability to adapt to hypoxia rapidly and whether Covid-19 is interfering with this process.

    The body responds to hypoxia by essentially instructing the pancreas to manufacture red blood cells. Thereby enabling the body to circulate more oxygen. This process mostly occurs within a period of 24-72 hours. Though adaption progresses for several weeks to months thereafter. Nitric Oxide (“NO”) production is very important in the homeostatic adaptation process . See ref “1″ below.

    Research has been done on NO’s ability to inhibit SARS virus reproduction. See ref “2″ below. The NO does appear to inhibit the viruses reproduction but the question as to whether the virus affects the body’s production of NO is not answered.

    NO treatment is being trialled in the US. See ref “3″, “4″ and “5″ below. Though it appears it may be too late in the disease progression as has been the case with Chloroquine, the reasons for providing the NO seem right.

    An even more interesting question arises around the issue of NO and Chloroquine. Chloroquine appears to stimulate NO production in some cells. See ref “6″ and “7″ below. This raises the question as to how Chloroquine is really functioning to defeat the virus? Is Chloroquine stimulating cellular level NO production in the body to counteract Covid-19 disruption of NO production that causes susceptibility (rather than adaptability) to acute hypoxia?

    Article ref “8″ begins to discuss the possibility viruses may disrupt NO production in the body.

    It is theoretically possible Covid-19 is causing mild lung inflammation that leads to a hypoxemic response by the body. The hypoxemic response is then exacerbated by the viruses ability to curtail Nitric Oxide production. Thereby leading to severe lung inflammation that ultimately causes asphyxiation and heart attack.

    (1) https://academic.oup.com/abbs/article/50/7/621/5026283
    (2) https://jvi.asm.org/content/79/3/1966
    (3) https://www.brproud.com/news/how-nitric-oxide-can-help-coronavirus-patients-as-clinical-trial-gets-underway-at-lsuhs/
    (4) https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/08/remarkable-nitric-oxide-being-tested-as-coronavirus-drug/
    (5) https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04290871
    (6) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15683746
    (7) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC508920/
    (8) https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2014.00428/full

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    AndyG55

    This article seems to point to an attack on the hemoglobin, thus depleting the oxygen carrying capacity of the blood.

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Without the iron ion, hemoglobin can no longer bind to oxygen. Once all the hemoglobin is impaired, the red blood cell is essentially turned into a Freightliner truck cab with no trailer and no ability to store its cargo…..’

      I like this hypothesis.

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    TdeF

    On the daily infection rate, it is stuck around 100, which is worrying and needs explanation. Consider this graph in the Australian. South Korea is under 50 a day but stopped dropping. Australia is exhibiting the same phenomenon.

    So can this be just stragglers, lockdown tourists escaping quarantine? The greatest worry is the care of the 6,000 infected people. A single person escaping from that lockdown could keep this going. Or visitors, like the husband who visited his wife and new baby and infected both.

    If there is to be stronger lockdown, it is around known sick carriers of the virus, the only known source of the virus now. And of course the people looking after them.

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    • #
      PeterS

      True if there is to be a strengthening of restrictions it has to be targeted to those who are carriers to avoid a continuation of the current broader approach that will only destroy our economy for good. The problem though is we would then need to test everyone since we can’t leave out even a few carriers given the high infection rate. Although not impossible it will take a lot of time and effort to test everyone, and I doubt we will ever have the resources in time. The other problem is what do we do with those who are infected? Lock them down indefinitely to protect the rest of the community? Not going to happen unless we have a usable vaccine much sooner than expected. We are pretty much caught between a rock and a hard place. The only way out is for a vaccine to become available very soon or the virus itself mutates itself out. Neither look likely. That leaves the least liked solution; mass immunity. At some stage a change in direction has to be made by our governments. We still have some time but it’s not going to be very long.

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      • #
        TdeF

        As I have written before, we do not need to test everyone. Isolation also works with infected people, stopping them from infecting others. Then in most cases they recover without even knowing they had it. Or we get a hospital admission which requires detective work, easy if they were isolating. If a whole town like say Robe in South Australia has no reported cases ever, it is clean.

        I believe that the reason the graph gets stuck is that we have to clear this huge reservoir of infected people, 6,000 of them, before we can drop again. There will always be leakage. Once the hospitals are clear in about three weeks, the number of infections will plummet again. This adds three weeks to my timetable, but we are still talking April to end isolation in a lot of areas, but perhaps prohibiting inter area travel. Say going to Wangaratta. Life can resume within not between suburbs just as a measure of security.

        We should be absolutely clear by the end of April but there is no reason to stop being cautious, washing hands, masks, gloves, especially in hospitality industries where they have identified one super spreader. Just someone stacking crockery could be a super spreader. Or a food delivery person.

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          TdeF

          And I am hopeful that as we understand how this virus k*lls people, that death rates can plummet. We will know soon which of hundreds of medicines help. We will be closer to improved anti virals and a vaccine may be available by September, a record. What this means is that we can reduce the numbers in hospitals if the medication not only saves lives but speeds recoveries.

          The story just keeps getting better but the world is concentrated on this like they are on weapons research in the war. Great breakthroughs happen in times of great need. And in this modern world, one man’s discovery becomes headline news the same day.

          For the first time in human history, we are taking on a virus at a DNA level. And we have every expectation of winning. Then we need to stop them ever becoming pandemics. If it was left to WHO, we would not know about the virus until it was far too late. I think that was the idea, to diffuse blame.

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            Serp

            I went to the site pillory.com expecting to see an image of Tedros in the stocks being pelted with market leavings but it isn’t there yet.

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      RexAlan

      I’m hoping this might help explain things.

      https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources

      From my reading of this the new cases would be falling but for the newly arrived cruise ship infections that seem to be included in the latest figures.

      Unknown local infections may have started to fall which would be excellent news.

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      • #
        RexAlan

        PS, sorry these are just NSW figures, but I see no reason why it should be different in other states.

        20

  • #
    ZombieDawg

    Give me an oxygen tank and a mask..she’ll be right…don’t need no stinkin’ respirator or vaccine.

    Meanwhile, it gets about!
    “Boy, 15, from remote Amazonian tribe DIES of coronavirus sparking fears Covid-19 could wipe out isolated rainforest communities”

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    Bill In Oz

    TdeF,
    1 : Two more flights of Australians arrived today, from Uruguay & India.
    So the count will rise further.
    2; I’m wondering if being asymptomatic may run in ‘families’ ?
    Or if by pure chance there are a string of asymptomatic carriers in an area ?
    Then the virus finds new ‘non-victims’ & can hide out until the lock down is finished.
    The cluster in North West Tasmania seems to be this kind of infection process.
    With the Tasmanian state government introducing stricter isolation rules just in that region.

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    TdeF

    And in the totals, even the US curve is rolling over nicely. The crisis is not over when the curve is flat with no more infections as we have to get everyone out of hospital, but is great to see Italy, Spain and the US rolling over with isolation. Hospitals can save lives but isolation kills the virus. In the Blitz, the people of London could not stop the bombing, but in this case they can stop the spread and that will kill it.

    Never has there been such worldwide agreement and a planet acting in concert. To have the streets of Delhi empty is beyond my imagination. People are usually shoulder to shoulder in old Delhi. A mouse would be intimidated.

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    • #
      Tel

      Police stomping around like power-mad stasi does not help anyone other than the ego trippers.

      We have had people fined for eating a kebab, or stopping for a rest on a park bench, or going for a driving lesson. This doesn’t kill any virus, it’s moronic behaviour, all it does is reduce the already dwindling trust between the police and the honest citizens. None of these rules went through genuine Parliamentary process, they change from week to week and enforcement is arbitrary and pernicious.

      If people want to isolate then by all means isolate yourself. That’s your choice but don’t destroy the lives of others. Something like 55 people in Australia have died so far, maybe that might just barely get to 100 people. At the same time 25 million are under house arrest … stupidest government ever. You are welcome to go live in Communist China, I prefer somewhat of a free country.

      I hope the whole lot of our political parties are destroyed at the ballot box. Liberals will be last on my vote from now until forever.

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        Gary

        I’ve just become a fan of Jon Rappaport and nomorefakenews.com and a long time follower of Weston A Price foundation, and have just listen to “Virus Mania” it’s about two hours long

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        Bill In Oz

        Tel thank you for your efforts to stop this virus infecting more people
        And thus destroy it completely quickly !
        We are all in this together !

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        Tel, the random and hypocritical nature of many restrictions show how unprepared we were for a pandemic. Hopefully the rules will evolve so we can drop the most invasive and pointless.

        Yes, some people are turkeys. Police needed better guidelines.

        The biggest failure of both major political parties was not to stop the flights in Feb.

        The biggest failure of our media is to not even ask this question.

        Tel, if only 100 die from this virus then you can thank our lucky hot climate and vast spaces for making the weak partial lockdown more effective here than anywhere on Earth. We have had this so easy compared to Spain and Italy and NY.

        Watch what happens in Turkey, Brazil, Ecuador, Indonesia. Sigh. Though the worst cases may end up being in high latitude poorer countries.

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          PeterS

          Leaders (politicians, union and business) on the same team with a good dose of common sense would be nice but I know that’s asking for a lot; perhaps the impossible.

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      • #
        深圳人

        Your reference to living in “Communist China” indicates that you, like most in the West, know nothing about the Peoples Republic of China. I am a Caucasian and I live in a tier 1 Chinese city. Not at any time this year has anyone in this city not been allowed to leave home. On Saturday February 29 every major business building was closed. This city normally trades 7 days. Only supermarkets and convenience stores were trading. I decided I “needed” to buy a pot plant so I took a more than one-hour trip on the Metro to the Dutch Flower Town, a huge gardening supply market. I traveled on two Metro lines stopping at a total of 26 stations each way. I then walked about a mile to the market. My temperature was taken at the entrance to the market and thereafter I wandered freely among the traders until I bought two beautiful Calatheas for a total of 50 yuan.I then walked back to the Metro Station. This is real freedom!!!

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        Alfred

        The whole point of lockdowns is to teach the public that they must do as they are told regardless. This infection must get to 80% of people before we have herd immunity. Lockdowns merely drag it out and destroy the economy.

        In a small town in Germany, they did antibody testing and 15% of the population had immunity to this infection. A tiny proportion ended up in hospital or died.

        Humans have coexisted with viruses for millions of years. Just because Mr Bill Gates wants us all to have chip implants so that he can control us changes nothing.

        Antibody Test in German Town Shows 15% Infection Rate

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        MP

        Someone gets it.
        Takes two to isolate, if your scared lock yourself away, keep the elderly isolated but let the rest work to prevent the depression, which will be the biggest killer of the elderly

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    robert rosicka

    Given the amount of deaths in such a short space of time and the obvious infection problems I wonder how many autopsies were actually performed and how many are actually performed ?
    I’ll admit I nothing about the subject but when this virus hits it usually hits hard and doing close to a 1000 autopsies a day would surely be an impossibility !

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      So rob, does this mean that we cannot list these deaths
      As caused by Corona 19 virus ?
      If so that would be a perverse result.

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        Not saying that at all Bill , I’m trying to say what has been missed in the rush to bury the dead .
        Given how long this virus has been running it seems it’s still a guessing game and not all variables are known .
        One thing that has been known throughout this pandemic is the majority of deaths with so called underlying medical problems but now it seems this should have been a warning and a clue not just a statistic .

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Doing an autopsy on every dead body would further overwhelm the medical system.
          And divert resources from where they are needed.
          I also wonder about how infectious the dead are to those handling the bodies
          Especially the medical personnel.
          As always with epidemics & pandemics
          The BEST way forward is to bury or cremate the dead
          To avoid added infection.
          So… Is there a way of measuring the deaths caused by this Virus ?
          Yes there is.
          Go back and check the death numbers in an area 12 months previously.
          And compare that with the current death numbers.
          I’ve read and heard many comments about this.
          All point to the much higher deaths this year than 12 months ago.
          I saw an ABC report from Jakarta in Indonesia yesterday
          Which pointed a huge spike in funerals there compared to a year ago.
          ‘Mostly of persons who were not admitted to hospital.

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            toorightmate

            The medical systems in Australia and New Zealand are NOT overwhelmed.
            Quite the opposite.

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            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Rob was writing about New York TRM !
              They are completely overwhelmed !
              Do try to keep up !
              :-)

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            • #
              robert rosicka

              Neither are those on Antartica Toorightmate but could that be due to quarantine measures and isolation?

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            TedM

            “Go back and check the death numbers in an area 12 months previously.
            And compare that with the current death numbers.
            I’ve read and heard many comments about this.”

            Not sure that will work Bill because the restrictions affect other causes of death too.

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        • #
          markx

          Some informative charts here:

          Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total
          By Josh Katz and Margot Sanger-KatzApril 10, 2020

          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

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      RickWill

      The number of Covid19 deaths in Wuhan is officially 2535.

      Coincidentally there has been some 42,000 urns with ashes delivered to Wuhan funeral homes in late March through early April. I suspect the cause of death is unknown but unlikely to be road accidents or the consequence of violent crime given that people were locked in.

      Forty transportable incinerators were taken into Wuhan in February. These are designed to incinerate medical waste and animal carcasses at high temperature while emitting low particulate gas stream.

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      • #
        Konrad

        “medical waste and animal carcasses”?

        Err, no. That was just the new signage they slapped on the sides before shipping them into Wuhan.

        I researched these units when I saw the images of them being trucked into Wuhan. There are a number of manufacturers in China, primarily supplying the military. The burn cylinder is designed for an adult human corpse. The fan forced burners would choke if it were filled with trash. They are designed to incinerate human corpses. With no coffins, just body bags, they can cremate 1 every 30 minutes for 10 liters of diesel each. They have a generator built into the shipping container to power the fans and control equipment allowing fully mobile operation. Some units use a separate fuel tank for the burner fuel to the generator fuel. This allows low quality high sulfur heating fuel to be used for the burners.

        Form satellite data, ground images and reports, my estimate for just Wuhan city is near 200,000 dead. This includes 50,000 buried before the mass cremations began. Only the US would have satellite data good enough to see what happened in the rural areas of Wuhan.

        China has not stopped the spread of the virus within their borders. Of interest is the large number of factory and warehouse fires occurring. Initially I thought this was due to industrial accidents in attempting to restart operations after the loss of key experienced personnel. But there are some reports that some warehouses were quarantined and guarded before they caught fire. Many of the fires are fierce and appear to involve large amounts of hydrocarbons.

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        Rick Will and Konrad.

        Is there any way, any way at all we will ever get the real truth out of China.

        We can conjecture all we like, and mostly, when it comes to these things you both specifically mention, they are probably the truth, but can they ever be proved conclusively?

        I suspected something really fishy was going on with those numbers from China, but everyone seemed to just accept them. Are we too gullible, or are there some amongst us who have questions we will never see answers to.

        Tony.

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          Bill In Oz

          Well the WHO have been bought Tony
          And the MSM have forgotten what we all saw happening 6-8 weeks ago in China.But the Epoch Times & the South China Morning Post still remember.
          As do the Taiwanese.

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    • #

      In a genuine novel virus pandemic it is safe to assume most current infections/ deaths are related. The number of normal infections is likely reduced to social distancing measures. There still will be influenza deaths, but the numbers will be small on a weekly level to the deaths we are seeing at peak times.

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    Bill In Oz

    Has anyone else pondered that this is the first world wide pandemic disease
    Since with modern medical science, we have a far deeper understanding of how diseases like this spread ?
    And thus how to stop them in their tracks ?

    In Roman & Byzantine times they had plague after plague and did not know how it spread and thus how to stop them.
    Ditto for the Bubonic plague from the 13th to the early 20th centuries.
    Ditto for the Spanish flu 1918-19.
    So people sought help from the gods which often made things worse because of the huge processions this involved.

    But this time, we know and we can stop it spreading and so destroy it.
    How fortunate we are to live in such times !
    The gift of modern medical science !

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      dinn, rob

      try to understand a new language, cov:
      4-11-20 “There is almost no possibility of containing the virus before July,” said microbiologist Yuen Kwok-yung, of the University of Hong Kong (HKU), who led the study published in scientific journal Clinical Infectious Diseases….Sars-CoV-2 generated 3.2-fold infectious viral particles than Sars within 48 hours….Despite reproducing more efficiently, the new virus induced slower immune and inflammatory responses, according to the study. Unlike the Sars virus, the Sars-CoV-2 almost did not induce any signalling protein interferons within 48 hours, which is key in triggering the immune system to counteract against the virus….With 90 per cent of the population not immune, Yuen warned that the virus could continue to spread even after the summer. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079502/coronavirus-causes-covid-19-can-produce-more

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        Bill In Oz

        That is indeed interesting research.
        And it comes from Hong and reflects the situation in Hong Kong..
        All the more reason for preventing any further importations of this vile virus
        Via travellers from all/any overseas arriving here
        Quarantine, Quarantine Quarantine !

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    Tel

    This localized hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction mechanism would also explain the X-ray pictures showing what they call “ground glass opacity“.

    Those are the regions where the lung is attempting to re-route bloodflow, and such a re-routing is a natural way of coping with the problem, provided it stays below a certain threshold. The lung contains considerable redundancy, although not unlimited redundancy.

    This ALSO would explain why there’s a big difference between people who got a very small dose, then shrug it off quite easily and medical workers getting a big dose and collapsing. If only a small number of these local “ground glass” regions are present then it will sort itself out as the human body immunity kicks in, once more and more of these start to appear you get towards the global feedback loop as overall blood pressure increases.

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    • #

      It would explain why this is bilateral pnumonia, not just one sided or one lobe.

      As to the dose matters argument — I’ve been watching that — intrigued — but waiting for data. How fast can this virus replicate? Does getting one copy instead of 1,000 give someone one extra day or one extra week? Why are incubations commonly 5 days, why is that delayed vis a vid the flu (2 days).

      With exponential growth of the virus competing against exponential amplification of our immune response dose may matter, so if you find any sources with more numbers, I am all ears.

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    george1st:)

    Schulz and Col.Klink find this all verrrry interesting .
    But we really need a Hogan right now .

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    Chrism

    I got a laugh from Sunni Backchat’s “The body responds to hypoxia by essentially instructing the pancreas to manufacture red blood cells. ” hmm and is the bone marrow making insulin?
    Is that the pathophysiology of COVID-19?
    I don’t think so …
    My parents went to Macchu Picchu some years ago and were given a proprietary chemical to alter 2,3 DPG binding of oxygen to improve tissue levels of O2; it wasn’t available here. Mountaineers are sometimes treated with acetazolamide to improve O2. In Sth America cocaine tea is widely served and benefits a number of the issues of altitude.

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Chrism, thank you for pointing this minor error out. Erythropoiesis is responsible from kidney to bone marrow. Doesn’t change the theory. Anything positive to add?

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    Gary

    Is this a model for the future, cities and States locked down overnight to save us from the VIRUS it’s going to be a scary new world and I don’t mean the virus, perhaps the disturbance of the bodies electrical system, do some research look at Spanish flu of 1918 their age and strange symptoms

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    Treeman

    Thank you Jo. I’ve watched the vid and have forwarded to my medico friends and family. The synergies in Gattinoni’s and Marik’s work are IMHO a portend of things to come as the global information exchanges deal with a growing body of information.

    Thank you also for your relentless covering of COVID-19.

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    Raving

    “About half of Scotland’s privately-run care homes have suspected coronavirus cases, according to industry leaders.
    Trade body Scottish Care said the impact of the virus on residents alongside staff absence levels of up to 30% had put homes under huge strain.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52246860

    The elderly are going to reach ‘herd immunity’ :(

    10

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      Bill In Oz

      Is this BBC article a a Trade union sourced ‘beat up’ to generate more funding & more testing in Scottish aged care centers ?

      It certainly feels like that.

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        Raving

        I don’t know what it is. There are some big new horror stories here. Shall spare you the grief.

        Governments are flipping between opening up and shutting down tighter all in the same breath. This pandemic is turning into a global political freak show.

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      Tel

      Those age care homes had one job.

      I think it’s bloody stupid to have normal people locked inside their homes, with police (who should be capable of knowing better) sending out drones to hunt down people harmlessly going for a walk. Even more stupid when the old age care homes have their residents locked inside anyhow and already isolated from everywhere else. Now we find out, turns out none of that did any good whatsoever.

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    WXcycles

    Cold v Hot country totals over 14 days (countries with > 500 cases and > 2.5% died – worldometer):

    Period covered is from March 29th to April 11th, 2020.

    Cold new case growth = 321%

    Hot new case growth = 455%

    Cold increased by 986,574 new cases while Hot increased by 57,254 new cases. The final hot cases total ended up 5.80% the size of the cold case total. Death percentages appear no different between hot and cold, so severity is generally presumed to be little if any different.

    The numbers imply that hotter (poorer) countries started to spread COVID-19 later than the colder countries did (I think due to much weaker and also indirect links to central China), thus the hot totals remain much lower still. But don’t be lulled as it’s a time-lag only, because over the whole 14-days the hot country cases grew 41.4% faster than cold countries did. Although the tabulated numbers also indicate that hard isolation was not occurring 2 weeks ago within the hotter countries, but it is now (mostly).

    Expect large infection numbers and deaths within the “developing south” countries at the end of April and into May. However, new cases as a % of actives is dropping each day (not so 14 days ago), so many of the ‘hot’ countries are showing signs of being able to rein-in the COVID-19 growth to potentially keep the case totals lower than have occurred in Europe. The fact that so many countries and populations are taking it seriously means suppression is becoming effective.

    Personally I think there’s no excuse for getting a genuine second-wave from COVID-19 in 3 to 6 months, as we know how to defeat and eliminate it. But some countries/states will presume they can, or else must open earlier and work their way through the tail of it. I noticed that Texas was last night making noises about doing that. Countries or states which do that will end up with a second-wave and be closed down once again and isolated by neighboring States, who will actually be recovering before the countries that didn’t crush the tail of cases. A higher priority for economic activity over health will predictably not work out if community spreading is not completely eliminated by sufficiently long community isolation.

    I expect any ‘second-waves’ will occur within impatient G20 countries with high GDP and debt, in States with governments who are already making noises about just getting on with things again. Frankly its very odd to hear people arguing for that, given that the planet hit 1 million cases on the 2nd of April (which took 6 months of spreading) and global cases are now at 1.8 million cases just 10 days later and grew by ~90,000 each night for the past 4 nights.

    Oh yeah, that looks like the perfect time to open the economy, “get on with it“. Maybe we get to do that in Australia from mid May, but not if we waste the opportunity to beat it completely before that.

    Tthe ultimate long-weekend lag is occurring in the data, the numbers may get back to normal by Thursday.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      TdeF I agree, But Re, “Expect large infection numbers and deaths within the “developing south” countries at the end of April and into May.”

      Most of the deaths in these countries will not appear on the official COVID 19 disease stats.
      Why ? Because the poor cannot afford modern medical treatment.
      They will use the old traditional methodologies : prayer & herbal remedies etc.And the sick & dead will never appear in the ‘official’ stats.

      The only way of knowing is via the total death figures recorded
      Which in place like India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia Philippines etc.
      Tend to be ‘more’ accurate.

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      • #
        farmerbraun

        With 70,000 people/square mile average, and 700,000/square mile in the worst slum, it looks like virus heaven.

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        WXcycles

        Sure Bill, I’ve presumed that will take place. It’s bound to occur in any country where the total [real] new cases exceeds the amount of test sample processing capacity. But at the moment the total daily deaths curve roughly parallels the total new cases curve, even more so during the past week if anything. So the testing is currently reflecting deaths surprisingly well. I expect the paralleling to degrade as the numbers get higher. As deaths become (hopefully) more reliable then cases, though this presumes governments tell the truth, and use the approximately same methods. As we can plainly see, in Germany they sure don’t.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      Thanks for link Bill. Just yesterday I was going to write that the Russian situation currently looks much like the USA did on about the 20th of March. I decided not to include that because the rate of spreading of new cases was almost half what the USA was experiencing around that time. But if they have long lines outside hospitals at this stage it’s likely they’ve been under reporting new cases, or not able to test them.

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    Raving

    This is the world’s first modern quasikiller pandemic. Because of modern changes it is a whole new and untested event

    1. We have medicine to mitigate innocuoate or cure given time, maybe …. Isn’t over until it is over(Y.Berra)

    2. We have the internet and TV. Everyone in the world has a reasonable sense of what everyone else is doing. The world is so interconnected that there is competition for drugs machines and PPG. This interconnection also means that all countries are making similar political decisions. A kind of global herd mentality.

    3. Global supply chains, global interdependence and fast global tourism and mixing. Hard to live and economically thrive in a isolated bubble fortress. Global economy. Everyone is emptying the piggy bank on this one

    The politicians can attempt to steer the people but if people are afraid, they wont go back to work. Tv and internet are full of horrible ugly stories about the terror of this disease. Not going to be easy to force fun loving Californians back to dangerous living. The modern news cycle is making this pandemic a very personal scene

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    • #
      Raving

      Brave Sweden is getting hammered and they know it. See the statistics. The pressure is such that they are willing to swallow their national pride and reverse course on policy.

      That shows the power of the death of a few percent of the old people, particularly so when they see what is being done elsewhere.

      The UK is another country that did a u-turn abandoning the ‘herd immunity” fatalism jingle

      Now the whole world has bought in including Russia, regardless of cost … who is going to pull the plug and restart the next round of musical chairs? Will the people follow them?

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    geeorge1st:)

    Speculation is fine .
    We have winners and losers .
    In $ that is wealth or struggle time .
    In health it is life or death .
    Just something to contemplate .
    For those who maybe complicating all the issues .

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    Rocket Rod

    Just finished reading this article that just popped up on ZH.

    STRONGLY SUGGEST EVERYONE READ IT ASAP
    (and the embedded links)

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/what-expanse-tells-us-about-covid-19-pandemic-and-gain-function-research

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    TdeF

    Watching the daily new infections. Of course it must be a mistake, the result of a long lunch, Easter Sunday but it is at 19 new infections for the day! For the country! If the numbers are right, that’s 1-2 more in hospital and less than one person requiring ICU.

    Quite apart from the returnees who risked our lives by leaving the country on a jaunt to Antarctica. If they wanted isolation at no cost to them and without a massive cost to everyone else in the country and other people’s lives, they could have stayed home and watched Happy Feet.

    The numbers can jump at night, but so far at 3:41pm East Coast, amazing. And very welcome.

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    Raving

    Very hard to imagine what will happen in the US under President Biden.

    Trump will have spent the treasury dry bailing out corporations and the stock market, regardless of their fiscal health under a Biden mandate.

    The Democrates will be coming off hot criticizing Trump for failing the health of Americans, for gutting public healthcare, and for plundering the public purse for the benefit of the rich

    Where will Biden find the personal human energy and public money to alter course for a ‘New Deal’?? ? He is old and tired

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    • #
      TdeF

      You mean under the man who called closing the door with China extreme xenophobia?

      It’s hard to swing that around to say the Democrats would have done better. They did nothing. In fact they were too busy trying to remove the President from office to bother with what was good for America.

      Now they were right all along? If anyone is an apologist for China’s appalling record on this, it is Biden. I expect he will get rolled before he is even nominated. Clinton or Cuomo or even someone else, as long as it isn’t Sanders who is keeping his delegates. And what if Obama nominates someone else? Otherwise why wouldn’t he throw his considerable popularity behind Biden.

      It’s looking like there will be a coup in the nomination process. Michelle Obama even.

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      • #
        Raving

        Not saying anything about Trump … Just pointing out that Biden would be the ultimate nothing burger should he get elected. It is difficult to imagine such a presidency

        He might get elected

        10

        • #
          Steve of Cornubia

          Biden will never be President. I have less than zero doubt that the DNC will replace him with Hilliary before the election.

          In the almost unbelievable scenario where Biden actually gets nominated – and wins the election – he will have Clinton as his VP and would be strongly advised to employ a food taster.

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        • #
          tom0mason

          Democrat wannabe president Biden would probably make Jimmy Carter look like a good, wise, and very knowledgeable president.

          10

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        Raving

        Not saying anything about Trump … Just pointing out that Biden would be the ultimate nothing burger should he get elected. It is difficult to imagine such a presidency

        He might get elected

        10

      • #
        Raving

        The Chinese aren’t xenophobic. Only 97 of 99 new covid19 cases from the past day are linked to foreign returns

        10

        • #
          Konrad

          Have you seen how they are treating Africans in China right now? It’s Germany 1939 all over again.

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      • #

        Hmm! I’m wondering.

        If Joe Biden has the answers about what to do with America, I wonder why he didn’t tell President Obama.

        Tony.

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    TdeF

    And on matters closer to home, I had the graph wrong. The totals are utterly cumulative since the first infection. It was a trick of their numbers on the dense graphics. Sometimes the first digit is the point, othertimes the last. It enabled a lower number to seem to follow a higher number.

    Which raises the question, how many of these infections are ‘cured’ and how many are live and how many are in hospital?

    With a total of 6238 over 32 days since we reached 100 infections, we have passed 4 weeks. If you remove people at a point of 3 weeks as cured, by next weekend we can remove 700 people from the list. And 700 the following week. And then a great number of 2000.

    So in 3 weeks, the total number of infected people should be half. Around 3,000. And could be many fewer and not climbing.

    After 5 weeks, mid May, there should be almost no people in hospital or lockdown. And those people are the only source of infection. Assuming there are no more people who escaped to go on cruises.

    I think we can see a substantial return to work by Mid May, starting on 1st May and a full return by June. With travel restrictions to corral any new cases. It is critically important to limit the geographical spread. The Ruby Princess is now causing havoc at Burnie, Tasmania. All so unnecessary, the most tragic and thoughtless decision made in the history of this disaster. And the trail likely leads to the top, to Gladys.

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    • #
      Raving

      How many infections are cured? Depends upon where you live. Some places define cured as 2 consecutive negative tests 24 hrs apart. Other places say you are cured 14 daysafter symptoms disappear. Other places say you are cured after 7 days without symptoms. Still other locations claim that if you were asymptomatic you don’t really count regardless.

      Most places dont want you to get tested if you have symptoms unless you are a health care worker, incarcerated or first responder.. They say to hide at home. They don’t want to know.

      With poetic license, the reported statistics appear to be unreliable at best :)

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      Raving

      Suspect that Aus is the same as Canada, the UK, the US and elsewhere. Not only do you enjoy all those cheap offshore products and offshore vacations but you also depend on all that cheap offshore temporary labor and education tourists and foreign money rich investors to inflate your economy to profitability

      Here in Canada we have a shortage of forgeign expert laborers to sow and tend to he spring crop. Border lockdowns are a tricky business. Besides, the bunk housesarent set up to conform to new social distancing laws

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      • #
        Bill In Oz

        All those off shore laborers are mostly still here
        Pleased to be working and getting an income when there is none to be earned at home
        Australia is different mate.
        I do not pretend to know anything about Canada
        And so refrain from commenting about your country.
        Courtesy demands you do the same please.

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        • #
          TdeF

          Friends have a lot of Canadians in the wheat industry for the broad acre farms. These are skilled labour jobs operating long hours on harvesters and setting up giant irrigators. There is a considerable exchange of young people between Canada and Australia, following the season.

          Fruit picking and the like are not skilled jobs and attract backpackers more. And an Australian winter up North is very pleasant, especially in the tropics, where a Canadian winter is a survival test. So a lot of young people are not racing home. Maybe a million guest workers. My guess is that they are self funding tourists.

          As well we have a huge transient Chinese and Indian student population, a rich set acting as pull throughs for their parents later migration. A lot of the degree courses are fake, in my opinion.

          In Melbourne have empty suburbs owned by the rich Chinese as both safe investments and bolt holes, presumably. These people are not off shore laborers.

          And a lot of Hong Kong Chinese who can see the writing on the wall. Plus a lot of Arab boat people and others, with perhaps 95% who have never applied for a job. They came for the family support and unemployment benefits. And they paid smugglers a lot of cash for the right to live here.

          So we have a mix of unemployed and unemployable, plus a lot of tourist backpackers and some skilled transients including Canadians on contracts. And who wants to go home to a pandemic anyway?

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          Raving

          For example, we have loads of Philippino health care workers here. … and cashiers and everything else. They eventually become Canadian citizens. Understand that Australia might be different

          https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/10/philippines-bans-healthcare-workers-leaving-country-work/

          00

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            Bill In Oz

            There are 450,000 Filipinos here in Oz
            My lady is one of them
            She is a college 4 year degree educated nurse
            With 13 years experience in A major Manila private hospital.
            But here she is a carer in aged care home
            And a good one always being asked to do more shifts.
            Because she cares.
            Why ? Well here in Oz her degree & experience are not recognised.
            In that way Australia is different.
            :-( 3

            There are many others like her.

            10

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          Raving

          When my parents emigrated from England, they chose Canada over Australia because it was closer. When I moved to Toronto it was a WASP majority with large populations of Italians Portuguese and Greeks. Now everyone is a minority in Toronto. Immigration has ensured that there is no majority. Maybe its different in Australia? I don’t know. Sorry

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    Steve of Cornubia

    If I understand this correctly, raising pressure in the lungs might be a BAD THING.

    If true, does this also contraindicate the use of CPAP in ‘milder’ cases? I have seen mention of CPAP in various places, touted as a means to ‘assist’ patients who haven’t (yet?) progressed to the most serious stage.

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      Steve of Cornubia

      Also, given that obesity figures highly among the pre-existing conditions suffered by many who have died, could CPAP use be a factor? Sleep Apnea is common among overweight, older and/or obese people, so could it be that using CPAP in C-19s early stages might accelerate the damage/worsen the symptoms?

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        Konrad

        CPAP involves lower pressures than mechanical bellows ventilation. Also, the electronic governors in CPAP machines follow the users own breathing cycle, unlike mechanical ventilators.

        Intubation with bellows ventilation is high risk. CPAP blowers not so much.

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          Steve of Cornubia

          “… not so much.” I can imagine but, if this theory is correct then raising pressure in the lungs by any amount is bad therapy. Or am I reading this wrong?

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    RickWill

    It appears the lockdown in Victoria will continue for another 4 weeks at least:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/daniel-andrews-extends-victorias-state-of-emergency/12143280

    The state of emergency is extended. I gather that means no change to existing rules.

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    Steve of Cornubia

    Information like this supports the ‘flatten the curve’ argument. Who know, three months from now a lab technician somewhere might have one of those, “That’s strange … ” moments, leading to a world of understanding and a means to truly stop this thing in its tracks, or provide a really effective treatment.

    Every day we vegetate in front of the TV, we’re buying time for the folks in lab coats to do their thing.

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    kevin a

    80% of NYC’s coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

    Why some doctors are moving away from ventilators for virus patients
    Some hospitals have reported unusually high death rates for COVID-19 patients on ventilators, and some doctors worry that the machines could be doing harm.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-some-doctors-are-moving-away-ventilators-virus-patients-n1179986

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    DOC

    Sounds like Disseminated Intravascular Coagulopathy to me. That’s a common endpoint in
    many severe illnesses. It requires the precipitating illness to be treated usually, before
    you can stop the coagulopathy cascade. While you’re trying to do that you are usually having to
    eventually transfuse replacement coag factors.

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      Roy Hogue

      Bravo!

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      Thanks Doc. But I assume without ChloroQ, AZ and Zn, mostly we need to not kill the patient so that their immune system can fix it. Hence it will surely help to get some off ventilators and stuff them full of anti-coag plus anti-inflammatory goods?

      Thanks Kevin a. Word is spreading. Good to know.

      We may look back and laugh at the desperate rush to create all the ventilators. but hopefully the extra ones made in teh West can be supplied to the third world as needed.

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        kevin a

        Thanks for the reply, I find it fascinating the number of “empty” hospitals that are in a war zone, overrun crisis?
        More good news? Citizen reporters go & do what the media won’t!
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pIMD1enwd4

        Australian hospitals to shut, 100,000 staff under threat
        https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/australian-hospitals-about-to-shut-100000-staff-un/3983976/

        Oh and the engineered food shortage
        FOOD SHUTDOWN: Farmers Told to “QUIT FARMING”
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4jr0wkt7HY&feature=emb_logo

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          Not fascinating. Just another casualty of the pandemic. Of course hospitals are shut and empty. No one could have been sure that we could reduce cases as fast as we did, therefore once they belatedly realized trouble was coming, they had to overplan as much as possible. Without any useful data they had to make a best guess to cover the worst outcome. We are so lucky.

          It’s great that those wards are empty. Hopefully we will reopen them to do elective surgery again soon.

          As for US crops, even in a normal year aren’t they paid to destroy crops? What he is describing is a very expected problem with supply chains.

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        kevin a

        It’s all about the numbers and “Who” generates them
        Video Removed & BBC inferred I lied. My 2 cents.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvqBwPgrX_s

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        kevin a

        FROM THE NUMBERS: Only 150 Americans to Date With No Pre-Existing Conditions Have Died From the Coronavirus or 0.9%
        https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/numbers-150-americans-date-no-pre-existing-conditions-died-coronavirus-0-9/

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        DOC

        Oh that it will ever be that easy Jo.

        There wouldn’t be a person in the world that wouldn’t be clinging on to that hope.

        Problem: It’s taking a hell of a long time to be able to say hurrah for those drugs. Not to dampen the idea too much, if they were, by now, found to be so successful in the hands of people doing those trials, in situations as the world has at the moment, the trials are continued but the drug is hailed and thrown at any COVID-19 found moving. That’s the ethics of it (and if it (the drug) hasn’t harmed others).

        Once you’re on a ventilator you are already in real trouble. Your lungs are becoming stuffed. AS you describe, it is difficult to get anything into the lungs due to the circulatory shutdown on the one hand and across the alveoli walls due to the odema on the other. You can’t just be slipped off the ventilator – or you wouldn’t be on it in the first place. Fighting DIC is as big a job as fighting the disease and it can be very difficult to turn off, especially when the body by definition is already hypoxic to a big degree due to the effects of the virus. A ventilator can only do so much. The game is to give the fighting body more time to actually get on top of the virus with its defences, to maximise oxygenation – and dump CO2 -as high in the
        normal range as you can get and without damaging the lung by the pressure needed to get the
        gasses to the alveoli. Realistically, for the few very ill, we have nothing else currently.

        If hydroxychloro. etc work then, like antibiotics with bacterial pneumonia,they are most desired.
        I’ve been away from this stuff for too long now, but I would find it hard to believe there will
        be antibodies of any type in high enough amounts to throw at a huge number of people. They would
        go to the so called ‘first responders’ for protection – I believe they will eventually need every
        assistance, especially immunity, they can get to stay on the job for a lot longer. They are
        no doubt tiring physically and mentally from work and risks and family. Obviously the antibodies
        will also be used first on the more virally ill, asap.

        I’m speaking more of what is happening overseas than here, and I am speaking as an old retiree,
        so I don’t plead to be well versed in all this. We can all see that Australia is again blessed.
        With all the outside sources of disease thrown at us, regardless of what criticisms we make of
        those leading this fight and a couple of real clangers, we are in very good relative nick. We
        had the worst case pointed out, what could have happened. We acted and continue to do so and appear
        to be getting on top. A good drug or a vaccine and we’d be on clover. It’s unfortunate that the means needed step on individual liberties, and there’s little doubt that there seems to be some
        from the top down that are acting excessively and obsessively in a manner beyond the pail. If the politicians want to maintain the calm they should be crunching such people back to the desk or dole queues.

        Our biggest problem now,apart from maintaining that control is, how do we get out of it? I have a feeling that is going to become our biggest source of social contention, to the point of rage, in this entire tragedy.

        We already have the business side of things demanding we open up, and they are supported by
        some powerful commentators I hear every day. The problem is they all seem incapable of understanding the difficulty in any of this, despite the fact we already see the problems happening
        in the asian tiger economies. The tigers are fastidious in retaining disease control. Those
        commentators seem to be incapable of understanding also that every man, woman and their dogs
        actually appreciate what their financial and family lives are looking like, and want out! That
        can create a tinderbox if stirred up enough.

        I’m not at all buoyed by the fact that more old epidemiologists are coming out each few days
        saying they see all this continuing for another 18+months. Society itself will be demanding release
        well before that; it’s already getting restless. I think its reaching time to be very upfront
        Say that, despite the brilliance of modern medicine and science we still have no medical cure for this disease and point out how slow it’s going to be inching out of it. Please give us the vaccine or any drug that works asap. WA looks like it may be first cab off the rank to try so
        keep the fingers crossed.
        Sorry for verbosity. Thanks for your time.

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        kevin a

        HOW HONEST IS THE COVID FATALITY COUNT? (Great Video)
        https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/how-honest-is-the-covid-fatality-count.php

        “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.
        https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

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    Virtual reality

    https://youtu.be/qpSG8kiiDLI

    Dr in NYC ER telling what is unnatural about COVID-19, unlike other viruses

    For what it’s worth, the respirators could pose more problems in some cases…

    Happy Easter

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    TdeF

    I’m opening that champagne. I hope it’s not a lack of reporting but total new reported confirmed infections is still on 19 for the day for the whole country.

    And these infections actually happened more than a week ago. We are back on schedule to starve the infection into extinction by 1st May if the hospitals and hotels can be emptied in the next three weeks. Then we need a clever way to restart everything so that any detected infection has not gone far geographically or infected many. And comprehensive tests for anyone entering the country.

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      TdeF

      And the first non stop government charter flight from Montevideo, Uruguay to Melbourne has landed with 100 people including 70 new cases. These are people who likely left after common sense and the Prime Minister told them not to go and two days before the total shutdown.

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        TdeF

        As part of the same article was this information “80 people in Australia were currently in intensive care with COVID-19, 36 of them on ventilators.”

        A number like 80 looks like our maximum for this pandemic and spread across many hospitals.

        While we could have moved faster to shut the door, I just hope Morrison does not force the schools open weeks too early. That would be incredibly risky for no gain. Education is not manufacturing. So much is just poorly disguised child minding. It’s worth it to keep them home as long as possible and to find ways to do that.

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      Bill In Oz

      T’was a glass of red for me TdeF !
      A nice Malbec from Argentina

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    Alfred

    I am in Europe at the moment.

    I really think Australians should start waking up and working out what is really going on here.

    The End of Democracy? – Martin Armstrong

    FWIW, you should all by now have worked out that the same people who were behind the failed Global Warming scam are behind this one. Please put on your thinking hats and stop panicking for a moment. Thank you.

    [ Alfred have you read anything at all about this source ?]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

    [AD]

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    farmerbraun

    Is this close to the current knowledge about progression of the syndrome called Covid-19?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/12/useful-relevant-science-the-bats-behind-the-covid-19-pandemic/#comment-2963796

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    Colin Harivel

    Jo. Recent article in LA Times on doctor patient recovering from cytokine storm. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/coworkers-save-coronavirus-doctor

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