…
|
|
||||
|
It’s the usual apocalyptic headline, hyped from a press release smoked out of a Nature paper, which was pumped from a climate model: “Climate change already causing storm levels only expected in 2080”An Israeli study published on Thursday found that climate change is already causing a “considerable intensification” of winter storms in the Southern Hemisphere to a level not anticipated until 2080. It’s bleak I tell you: “New data reveals climate change might be more rapid than predicted”In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Their discovery was bleak: It became clear that storm intensification over recent decades has already reached levels projected to occur in the year 2080. Yet again we see true mastery of confirmation bias at work: When the climate models underestimate things it means doom is coming faster. When they overestimate things, it means the equipment is faulty. What would 28 million radiosondes know? There must be 1,000 permutations of climatoid factors that could be measured across regions of the Earth, but Lo — there has been an intensification of Winter Mid-Latitude Storms in the Southern Hemisphere! Not summer storms, spring storms, or Atlantic Storms or Atlantic Tropical Autumn storms, or Pacific Eastern high latitude Westward events (as far as we know) but roll the dice, some of them will turn up snake-eyes too! (Where is my grant?) As far as I can see, this is a good example of Neolithic tea-reading type science — equivalent to studying the trails of the scribbly-bark beetle and forecasting that the Blinking Star will eat Neptune before the next full moon. These are short term trends within the noise envelope, but good enough for a Nature paper, and a press release: What if there was, say, a natural 60 year trend in there? Who would know?  … I notice in the Supplementary section the captivating graph below. Part A, apparently, is the observed trend, and Part B the modeled trend, which don’t look too similar to me. The caption has the immortal words:“The small black dots indicate regions where two thirds of the models/reanalyses agree on the sign.” On The Sign! Unless I’m reading that wrongly, they’re excited about the dot points where two out of three models guessed whether the trend was up or down. It’s that bad. In most of the Pacific apparently nearly 70% of models looked at “climate change” and couldn’t even guess the direction right. Indeed, the models are so wrong in the Pacific, perhaps it’s significant?  Click to enlarge. Phys-Org gushes like David Attenborough was let loose in “software biology”:About 30 massive, intricate computer networks serve the scientists who stand at the forefront of climate change research. Each network runs a software program comprised of millions of lines of code. These programs are computational models that combine the myriads of physical, chemical and biological phenomena that together form the climate of our planet. What is Truth but “millions of lines of code” eh? What could possibly go wrong (apart from things like the G.F.C.)? We’re there at 2080 already! In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Their discovery was bleak: It became clear that storm intensification over recent decades has already reached levels projected to occur in the year 2080. Spot the bias anyone? We studied this part of the world because it showed what we wanted to find? “We chose to focus on the Southern Hemisphere because the intensification registered there has been stronger than in the Northern Hemisphere,” Chemke says. “We didn’t examine the Northern Hemisphere, but it seems that the intensification of storms in this hemisphere is slower compared to that in the Southern Hemisphere. If any taxpayer funds were harmed in this report, we want them all back. This is non-stop agitprop: Chemke, Ming and Yuval’s study has two immediate, considerable implications. First, it shows that not only climate projections for the coming decades are graver than previous assessments, but it also suggests that human activity might have a greater impact on the Southern Hemisphere than previously estimated. This means that rapid and decisive intervention is required in order to halt the climate damage in this region. Second, a correction of the bias in climate models is in order, so that these can provide a more accurate climate projection in the future. It’s new low in scientific spin. Modelers don’t usually just lie straight out like this: Could the climate models be inaccurately predicting other important phenomena? “The models are doing a very good job at forecasting nearly all the parameters,” Chemke says. “We’ve discovered one parameter for which the sensitivity of the models needs to be adjusted. Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice, and summer storm patterns, for example, are all being simulated accurately.” For what it’s worth, Rei Chemke only finished his BSc in 2012, and his PhD is all “climate science”. It’s more a case of Kool Aid over-exposure for a young guy that has probably never met a skeptic. Everyone who has met a skeptic knows climate models can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale, they don’t know why global warming slowed for years, they get the core assumptions wrong – the hot spot is still missing, (that’s the only fingerprint they said mattered, right up until they couldn’t find it). They can’t explain the pause, the cause or the long term historic climate movements either. Measurements of satellites, cloud cover changes, 3,000 ocean buoys, 6,000 boreholes, a thousand tide gauges, and 28 million weather balloons looking at temperature or humidity can’t find the warming that the models predict. In the oceans, the warming isn’t statistically significant, sea-levels started rising too early, aren’t rising fast enough, aren’t accelerating, nor are warming anywhere near as much as they predicted. Antarctica was supposed to be warming faster than almost anywhere but they were totally wrong. The vast Southern Ocean is cooling not warming. The only part of Antarctica that’s warming sits on top of a volcano chain they prefer not to tell you about. Some scientists are also behaving very badly: hiding data, declines, history, adjustments and methods. But thousands of other scientists are protesting all over the internet. REFERENCESChemke, et al, (2022) The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, Nature Climate Change (2022) PDF Preview copy on ResearchGate May 29th, 2022 | Tags: Climate Astrology, Climate Models, Junk Science, Storms | Category: Global Warming, Junk Science |  Print This Post | | We can all use some good news  Tedros Adhanom In the latest installment of Big Government Badness the WHO is meeting right now to consider some amendments suggested by the US and largely agreed by about 47 rich nations for no real benefit. The US suggested these changes in January and for months almost no politician anywhere said a thing. The changes give broader powers to the head honcho of the WHO — Tedros Adhanhom Ghebreysus. He’s the man who told the world to keep flying in Chinese Bioweapons through their front door in January 2020, while he also told everyone how transparent and wonderful President Xi was: “China is protecting the people in the whole world”! He actually said that. China was stopping all flights out of Wuhan to the rest of China, but not to Italy, Iran, or anywhere else, and they lied about human to human transmission, and said it was preventable and curable, while they harvested up masks and PPE from around the world to profiteer from them later. China lied about the bats in the lab, and WHO helped cover it up. No one can explain why the rich nations of the world would want to sign rights away to an unelected, unaudited foreign committee that has failed to do the only job it was meant to do, is clearly in the pocket of China’s communists and wants us to pay them to let them boss us around? Notably China was not signing up The good news at the moment is that according to The Epoch Times African nations have put the brakes on and they appear to have derailed the process. We might assume that with backroom deals that might amount to some local sweeteners in Africa or maybe just a better job for the Ambassador. However the backroom deals appear to be failing, and the final form of the amendments has now been delayed to September or even November. The battle isn’t over but we have more time to fight back. The documents we’re talking about are called the WHO International Health Regulations [IHR] — sometimes also referred to as a Pandemic treaty (though there are other Pandemic Treaties too). The original IHR was made in 2005, and you can read the proposed amendments yourself. The IHR already matters. Unvaccinated Australians were banned from leaving Australia because of “this WHO treaty” for nearly two years, it was listed on the Health Ministry website, though apparently almost no other country did the same. Go Figure? Perhaps Australia and Canada were the only ones stupid enough to write it into laws at home? Opposition Forces Back-Room Talks Seeking Revisions to Biden’s 13 WHO AmendmentsJoshua Phillips, The Epoch Times Under the proposed amendments, the director-general could declare a public health emergency in any country regardless of whether local officials agree with the declaration. Tedros also would be authorized to rely on evidence from sources other than those approved by the affected country as the basis of such a declaration. But the Biden proposals have sparked a growing furor in the United States among critics who contend the amendments would amount to ceding of some portion of American sovereignty to WHO in the event of another pandemic like the one that has killed more one million Americans and in excess of six million people worldwide. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), the first member of Congress to comment critically on the amendments, told The Epoch Times on May 26 that, “Of course the amendments should be withdrawn, but the bigger issue is how we got to this point in the first place. Why is this administration apparently willing to cede any authority to an international body, particularly the WHO?” This is not just about pandemics — any “health emergency” will do:The WHO document was spectacularly vague in all the right places. We don’t even need a moment of monkeypox — this is a “health emergency” treaty and health can be whatever you want. The WHO defines health as anything less than 100% happy, bouncing, bubbly people:
We all know that Climate Change is an “emergency”, trans-rights is an “emergency”, as are the lack of safe spaces for children oppressed by their parents. It’s only a hop, step and a jump to demand a clean atmosphere is a human right as is having a self-driving electric car with full tracking, carbon credits, and the remote cut-off “safety” circuit too. For your own health!
Peter Breggin has been raising the alarm on this for monthsHe spells out the pervasive nature of it all:
The amendments will completely remove all current restrictions on the activities of the WHO Director General and will empower him to declare a suspicion of a “potential” global health emergency in any nation without their cooperation or agreement. Within 48 hours, the Director General will be empowered on the mere suspicion of an ill-defined emergency, and be able to publish his recommendations and regulations to marshal all the agencies of the United Nations and other groups outside the UN to put pressure on dissident nations. Other nations feel empowered by WHO to place suggested restrictions on the targeted nation. The World Bank which is an extreme supporter of empowering WHO, could also put pressure on nations. The Director General, Tedros, of the WHO will be the sole arbitrator of many health issues and activities, including declaring health emergencies relating to physical health, mental health, environmental health, and social health. This means that if the WHO and Tedros decide that guns are producing an “epidemic” of violence, then gun confiscation can be ordered. Or, if overpopulation is declared to be the cause of food shortages, then WHO could order population control actions, including abortions and euthanasia. Don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be stopped and it’s not worth trying: We have heard from Congressional sources that there is a firestorm of concern and attention in Congressional offices about the World Health Organization (WHO) amendments proposed by the U.S. Biden Administration. This concern has been ignited by the phone calls, articles, columns, and media coverage about the WHO power grab. Every citizen who is signing petitions and calling their federal Congressional representatives and Senators is having an enormous impact on U.S. Congress. Our initial report, “Biden Handing Over U.S. Sovereignty to WHO,” has gone viral in Congress and throughout the world.
For reference, here are the 20 nations, plus the European Union, listed by the U.S. as already supporting the amendments before they were even discussed:
Albania, Australia, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, India, Jamaica, Japan, Monaco, Montenegro, Norway, Peru, Republic of Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Uruguay, Member States of the European Union (EU) (which means another 27 states).
If only we all had the same kind of democratic protection as Africa. Start contacting your representatives asking them why we needed to rely on African politicians instead of our own ones. Write letters to the editors. Share the news with friends.
Keep reading → May 28th, 2022 | Tags: WHO (World Health Organisation) | Category: Big-Government, Health | Print This Post | | Baseload futures for electricity on the Australian market used to sell for $60 a megawatt hour last year. Now prices are rising by $30 in a single day. Paul McArdle at WattClarity calls it “staggering”. Prices rose from $260/MWh at the end of Tuesday 24th May to $291.20/MWh at the end of Wednesday 25th May 2022.  …. Click to enlarge It’s a bloodbath. It appears that no one wants to provide a guarantee they can sell electricity in Quarter 3 for much less than an astonishing, heartbreaking $290/MWh. Unless this situation resolves, the forward prices will soon flow through to the retail prices. At the moment, the number crunchers don’t seem to think it will be fixed soon. So far, with several coal turbines out of action, and one turbine recently closing (Liddell) it appears to be a network on the brink, with no spare capacity anymore. The situation on the Australian grid isn’t improving. After record April prices, May will also bring in medals of the wrong kind. Current prices of wholesale electricity on the spot market are averaging a blistering $200 — $300 per megawatt every day for all the mainland states of Australia on the national grid. Meanwhile, household retail prices are already set to go up around 10% from the start of JulyThis was determined — not by a free market — but by the AER (Australian Energy Regulator). Because we need a government agency to dictate that sort of thing. It’s not like we could let people pay a network fee and then choose to do deals with, say, the cheapest generator they can find. Keep reading → … A radio journalist was at the Jan 6 riots and thought the FBI would want his detailed footage showing men smashing windows and trying to incite others to join in. The odd actors dress strangely, act differently, have radio’s strapped on, and push people into the Capitol Building at times, and Bobby Powell has 29 minutes of high definition video, on the terrace, up close, but the FBI don’t want to find out who those people are. They are not sitting in jail, like others accused of Jan 6 crimes. Their photos are not even posted on the most-wanted lists. Journalist Bobby Powell has spent 16 months trying to get anyone to pay attention in officialdom. He posted the video on Twitter of the US Capitol Police and within five minutes his Twitter account was permanently suspended. Google demonetized his Youtube account. Facebook took down his live streams, and now Paypal has shut his donation account. He spoke to some of biggest names in broadcast news but no one was interested in “a story about alleged government agents attacking the capitol”. Now he has sold his own home to keep going. The one person who is interested is Brad Geyer, the lawyer defending many of the people accused of Jan 6 crimes. He has already filed a motion on May 6th to identify and get as many as 80 suspicious actors called up as material witnesses. Bobby Powell’s video adds to that list. What’s worse, that the FBI appear to have set up an entrapment operation to distract the world from hearing evidence about election corruption, or that the FBI, the CIA, all the Media, Twitter, Paypal, Youtube and the US Capitol Police are so keen to cover it up?
EXCLUSIVE: Videos Show Unindicted ‘Suspicious Actors’ Attacking Capitol on Jan. 6Joseph Hanneman, Epoch Times Bobby Powell thought someone would be interested in his video evidence showing two “suspicious actors” taking part in events on the east side of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He was in for the surprise of his life. He wants to see those men charged with the destruction of government property and assault. Almost no one, it seems, wants to listen. Powell has learned that his video isn’t welcome in many places; some people view it as a threat. In Michigan, he said a politician friend suggested he take a six-figure bribe to keep quiet. When he flatly refused, he says his life was threatened. He also thought photos of the men would eventually appear among the 1,558 individuals on the FBI’s Jan. 6 most-wanted page. That never happened, nor have they been arrested or charged. “These are two men that are pulling windows out of the Capitol and pushing people inside the doors,” Powell told The Epoch Times. “Okay, so why isn’t the FBI interested? That is the key question.” “I’ve been giving speeches in New York, North Carolina, Florida, for the January 6 defendants,” Powell said. “And you know, I flat out come out and say it: “The FBI led the insurrection of the Capitol. “I have proof, and, you know, the FBI didn’t want to hear anything about it.” After one man smashed the window, the Capitol Police came and arrested him, but for some reason, with thousands of energized protesters present, on a momentous day, they didn’t leave a single man there to guard the open window. Protestors are heard calling out “it’s a trap”. It was that obvious…
May 26th, 2022 | Tags: Election (corruption), Elections, Tech-Giants, Twitter | Category: Big-Government, Election security, USA | Print This Post | | Last week small electricity retailers were bleeding so badly they doubled their prices and asked their customers to leave. This week it’s a big gas retailer, as Australia belatedly faces the same pain that hit and wiped out UK energy retailers: Gas retailer Weston Energy’s collapse stirs call for Labor interventionPerry Williams, The Australian Weston Energy, which provides gas to more than 400 companies and government agencies, ceased trading with immediate effect on Monday, creating uncertainty for major manufacturers with 7 per cent of the east coast’s commercial and industrial market forced to find a new supplier. The company said it could no longer finance cash flow requirements of its trading portfolio “on a timely basis” with prices rising over 180 per cent since April, and almost three times higher than at the start of the year. These are blistering rises in costs: With spot gas prices up to four times higher than normal levels and wholesale electricity prices in NSW on track to finish the June quarter twice as high as the previous record, Mr Willox called on the Albanese government to respond.  It’s a cult. Presumably at this point geniuses will suggest we need even more solar power — thus creating an even greater demand for expensive gas until we get a battery the size of Tasmania, or the sun goes Supernova and runs 24 hours a day. Better yet — the inner city Teal voters could offer to run off their solar panels and donate their gas to the poor? Will any of the Labor Party, Professors and Energy Experts even think of boosting gas production and exploration, and vaporizing the red tape? Probably not. But will they miss the chance to redevelop the cheap brown coal of La Trobe Valley and take the pressure off gas use and energy prices. We know they will… Keep reading → May 25th, 2022 | Tags: Electricity Cost, Energy Crisis | Category: Australia, Global Warming | Print This Post | | Conrad Black does a summary of the situation in the US that other media outlets forgot to mention:
Even the Great Replacement may have run out of voting powerFor some reason Democrats assumed that immigrants would always vote for infinite continuing immigration after they arrive (thus creating exactly the conditions they had escaped from). The policy area where they seem most satisfied with the administration is immigration, where all will concede, except the surrealistically implausible Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, that the administration is getting on admirably in allowing anyone who wishes to enter the country to do so. The presumed underlying ambitions for this policy of national suicide are to admit enough permanently grateful Democratic voters to produce an almost one-party system, and to reduce whites to a minority of Americans, to facilitate the seizure and redistribution of their wealth to others. This goal is only specifically espoused by the peppiest of the new members of the 2020 Democratic coalition, but it’s hard to find any other plausible motive to impute to the supporters of the current administration policy of a completely open southern border. The latest polls indicating that only 26 percent of Hispanic Americans now approve of the Biden administration indicates this catastrophic policy is backfiring. Don’t miss those signs of success —We regularly see the collapse in defeat of key supporting individuals and organizations in the anti-Trump movement: the unmasking of Black Lives Matter as an allegedly massive tax cheat operation that effortlessly swindled witless American big businessmen out of hundreds of millions of shareholders’ dollars, the collapse in the ratings of CNN and MSNBC, the resigning of CNN’s Jeff Zucker, the folding of Chris Wallace’s CNN streaming service after it attracted only a few thousand viewers in all of America and after only three weeks, the unmasking of Twitter and specifically of the president’s Twitter account as largely frauds, and the apparent loss of control of Twitter to ex-Democrat Elon Musk. Hillary Clinton has been finally revealed as approving the mighty Trump–Russia smear job and the suborning and politicization of senior ranks of the FBI and CIA: the dirtiest political trick in American history. h/t Rafe Champion Hopefully Elon Musk will give him a job. Stuart Kirk, head of “responsible investing” for HSBC let rip at the doommongers of finance with a speech called “Why investors need not worry about climate risk”. He was speaking at A Moral Money Europe Summit, held by the Financial Times and is clearly fed up with listening to hyperbole and being told to analyze and worry about trivial long term future events. “Last night Target fell 25% — twentyfive!” … but I’m being told to worry about something coming 20 – 30 years down the track.” Other speakers were unceremoniously dispatched. He complained climate risk has become so hyperbolic no one knows how to outdo it. “Sharon [a speaker from Deloittes] said “we’re not going to survive!” But no one even looked up and ran from the room.” Dangerously (for him) he also explained how the central banker models bury massive GDP and interest rate shocks in their economic forecasts of climate risk, otherwise they can’t generate bad news and headlines. Apparently, it’s all in the fine print that nobody mentions. They’re sounding more and more like climate models all the time. That was last week. This week he’s been suspended. h/t Greg M and Rafe Champion, Another Ian. Climate Risk and Wall St Meet Cancel CultureSteven Hayward, Powerline Stuart Kirk, head of “responsible investing” for HSBC, gave a presentation at a Financial Times “Live Moral Money Summit Europe” a few days ago in which he shredded the climatista claim about financial climate risk. Needless to say, you can’t say this! And so the predictable has happened: HSBC has suspended a senior banker after he referred to climate crisis warnings as “unsubstantiated” and “shrill” during a conference speech that has since been denounced by the lender’s chief executive. Kirk’s presentation controversially included slides that said “Unsubstantiated, shrill, partisan, self-serving, apocalyptic warnings are ALWAYS wrong”, while referring to comments made by officials at the UN and Bank of England, who have tried to raise the alarm over global heating. “Human beings have been fantastic at adapting to change, adapting to climate emergencies, and we will continue to do so,” Kirk told attenders at the Financial Times’ Moral Money conference on Thursday. “Who cares if Miami is six metres underwater in 100 years? Amsterdam has been six metres underwater for ages and that’s a really nice place.” Stuart Kirk, who has been HSBC’s head of responsible investing since last July, will remain suspended until the bank completes an internal investigation into the matter. He will remain suspended until other economists get the message about what they are not allowed to say. Well worth watching: This is a man who believes the science is right but nothing about the economics or market response makes sense. Luckily he doesn’t talk about science, just the things he knows. Amazing how much damage one man can do in a mere 16 minutes. The odd quandry — the markets are completely ignoring climate riskStrange things happen: the more people say the world is going to end, the higher risk asset prices go. Kirk counted the time the news media mentioned the “climate catastrophe” and noticed that the “worse” it was, the higher the MSCI index rose. (The MSCI is the market cap weighted stock market index of 1,546 companies around the world.) “The Sharons and Mark Carneys need to explain why the prices keep rising.”
 The more the news was “catastrophic” the more investors invested in the MSCI.
Jo Nova, however, thinks it’s no coincidence. Inflating the money supply pumps our stocks at the same time as our fantasy ideologies. Fiat currency bubbles inflate assets as well as dumb ideas. We couldn’t afford to be this stupid in times of austerity. The fine print of the Central Banker Models of Doom
|
Jo appreciates your support to help her keep doing what she does. This blog is funded by donations. Thanks!
Follow Jo's Tweets
   
 
|
|||
|
Copyright © 2024 JoNova - All Rights Reserved |
||||
Whatever anyone thinks of Trump, he’s the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt for whom people in any part of the country will stand outside in falling snow for hours to see and hear him. No one who saw the immense ovation given Trump at the Kentucky Derby of Churchill Downs earlier in May by 150,000 people across all socio-economic groups could doubt the force of his political popularity. All but three of the approximately 70 candidates 
Voters in WA should know that 
Recent Comments