JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Finally the numbers: Omicron is one tenth as severe as Delta. Good news

We finally reached a turning point with Omicron that suggests we have it’s measure.

We couldn’t know if the South African experience would translate to the overweight, indoor and diabetic parts of the world given 60% in South Africa had already had Covid — plus it was summer, and that part of the world is more familiar with certain anti-virals which must not be named.

But the news from the UK is about as good as we could have hoped. And Hallalujah, restrictions are being wound back in the UK.

Hurrah! It’s three doses of Covid cheer as UK cases continue to plunge, Plan B curbs may soon be lifted

DailyMail, UK

Modelling Omicron UK

Modeling Omicron UK Daily Mail

 

And on hospitalizations

The hospitalization curve in the UK has just (maybe) started to decline, and if there are no surprises, then Omicron is roughly kinda 10% as severe as Delta was.

Hospitalizations in the UK, Omicron

Modelling Hospitalizations in the UK. Omicron

 

I know some will feel that this is no news at all and we could see this coming for weeks. But bear in mind that in South Africa, the country far ahead of us all, the deaths have only just plateaued the last three days (we hope).

The peak of infections in South Africa was December 17th. So that’s a full month’s lag from cases to deaths.

Deaths in South Africa due to Omicron. Graph. OWID.

Deaths may have only just hit the peak in South Africa. Graph OWID.

 

And right now, deaths are rising around the world, with the exception of Germany:

Deaths Omicron, many countries. Graph.

Source. OWID

There are plenty of ways this could have turned out differently. Even now, we don’t know the after effects or “sequelae” —  like the long Covid tally, or how long natural immunity will last, or whether there is some inflammatory, or autoimmune side effect. A lot of people are turning up in hospital for other things, and being diagnosed with Covid. Most likely Omicron is ripping through the population faster and more asymptomatically than anyone thought, but what if there are other symptoms taking people to hospital that we don’t associate with Covid? We’d hope the docs have figured that out, but it would be nice to see someone in the media even ask the question.

We are not at the end of the Omicron track yet. And as long as we suppress safe cheap drugs and keep injecting 90% of the population with a leaky ineffective vaccine, the next variant-of-concern is in production right now.

9.8 out of 10 based on 71 ratings

127 comments to Finally the numbers: Omicron is one tenth as severe as Delta. Good news

  • #
    AZ1971

    Expect the science to be ignored, Jo. The bureaucratic idiots will continue pushing the vaccine even though it’s useless in the fight against the Omicron variant.
    https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/mrna-boosters-don-t-block-omicron-south-african-study-shows

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  • #
    John Hultquist

    As more info comes along, perhaps folks will begin to understand the threats. It is difficult to determine a good report from all the misinformation. Even a US Supreme Court justice has no idea what she speaks about.
    The wildly different responses from officials and individually are astounding.
    A useful outcome from this panic might be that people begin to take better care of themselves. Two simple things will be to supplement with Vit D3 and to reduce obesity.

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    • #
      JiminMaine

      I really really wish that this were true, but as an American, I can assure you it is most certainly not, at least not in my country.

      In order for what you describe to actually take place, people would have to at least somewhat accept responsibility for their own actions. Politicians have become very adept at making sure that never happens. Whatever it is that’s happening to you, the individual, is absolutely someone else’s fault, and the government is working on a plan to fix it for you.
      I can all but guarantee that Americans, if not the developed nations, have gained weight over the past 2yrs, adding to what was already a health crisis caused by obesity.
      Have you heard a single politician anywhere mention the “Pandemic of the Fat People”?? No. Of course not. It’s not OUR fault we’re fat, you see…We’ve got a study group looking into that right now! We suspect that some evil company somewhere is responsible, just not one of the ones that contributed to MY campaign!
      And btw, before anyone thinks I’m one of “those” people, wagging their finger at someone who’s obese…I am obese, by current medical standards. I’m active, I heat with wood, stacking and burning 4 cords per year. But I love to cook, and I love food. AND, I fully recognize that being 30lbs overweight is absolutely nobody’s fault buy mine.

      Jim in Maine, Land of REAL Lobster 😉

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      • #
        Gerry

        Yes JiminMaine …. For many many years now, personal responsibility has been shunned in the pursuit of patching up self esteem. For some reason we have decided that our self esteem depends on our actions and beliefs (esp). So let’s protect our self esteem by making it so that we never do anything wrong. And of course we need to be politically correct in our beliefs. The stress of trying to maintain our very fragile self esteem is killing us all.

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        • #
          Ted1

          There is a long standing rule about responsibility which has grown in recent years.

          Responsibility is reserved for people who have saved capital. If the respondent has no savings which can be taken from him/her, he/she won’t be held responsible.

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          • #
            Lawrie

            Cynic. I could not help noticing that the countries with lowest death rates, Brazil, Indonesia, India etc use a certain drug that our “experts” say is dangerous unless treating horses. Funny how those poor countries are doing so much better than rich countries that can afford to lavish huge sums on vaccines that don’t work. We truly are governed by idiots.

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        • #
          Deano

          I’ve always viewed ‘self-esteem’ as self praise. And self praise is not worth a jack.

          00

    • #

      John

      Good point and one of the ways we could better look after ourselves is by restraining our weight.

      A very high percentage of covid deaths have been due to obesity and all the other ailments it brings in its wake.

      Moderate exercise, moderate eating, vitamin d and you are some way along the healthy road that will help you ward off many ailments

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  • #
    Simon

    The alternative hypothesis is that it is the high rate of vaccination that is keeping the hospital rates low. We won’t know the answer without comparing similar populations with different vaccination rates.

    463

    • #
      farmerbraun

      Has a “vaccine” for Omicron been released? How did I miss that?

      550

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Jacinda bin L’Ardern, Pf!zer’s #1 sales rep for the Southwest Pacific, announced the release of their 3rd iteration, Tsar Bomba, earlier this month… c’mon man, keep up with the PR 🙂

        Coincidentally, our 1st snowfall of the season has coated Mt Hutt ski area with 10-20 cm of fresh gobull warming goodness (see metservice.com / ski fields / Mt Hutt / snowcam). It would appear all the fake science hypotheses are collapsing on the same day, 20 Jan 2022.

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        • #
          Simon

          Meanwhile, the North Island is still stinking hot. You can’t consider single regional events in isolation. 2021 was NZ’s hottest year on record by a considerable margin.

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          • #
            Greg in NZ

            Hahaha ad infinitum

            21°C and raining “stinking hot”?

            Wellington 16°, Dunedin 14° (2pm) feeeel the Bernie!

            Enjoy your “considerable margin” of make-believe.

            231

      • #
        Chris

        According to Pfizer, the Omicron vaccine will be coming in March

        31

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Simon says VaXXination “is keeping the hospital rates low”.

      What? Every recent news broadcast tells us that hospitals are overloaded and running at the max.

      Of course the disease is not the only issue.

      When state run medical facilities were running close to the point of overload even before Covid it doesn’t help to send a significant proportion of the staff home to isolate and not replace them.

      Government ineptitude on display.

      Thanks for reminding us Simon.

      570

      • #

        In Germany, since Dec 14th, the ICU cases are in steady decrease, from 4892 down to 2571 per today.
        But I’m not the one to say that’s because of the vaxxes.
        On the other hand, positive tested are increasing, yesterday to 109.920 cases.the death cases stay at an varying but more or less equal level.
        Most now are Omicron.
        Nevertheless, the healed count as healed since sunday only for 3 month, without given reason, so after 3 month, you are unvaxxed. Before, healed had the satus for 6 month, while Switzerlands healed have now 12 month instead of 6 before, following science, as it’s nown, immunity after infection last at least 11 month. (following the las paper I read in 2021)

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          There appears to be signs of people messing with definitions to tray and make things look better than what they are. One case in point is that in NSW for example, they declare any one up to 3 weeks after getting first shot of the vaccine as “unvaccinated” which is nonsense. But it means they can claim that many unvaxxed are showing up as infected.

          However, even a bit of massaging of the figures cant obscure that almost 3/4 of people infected are vaccinated.

          https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-20220113.pdf

          “COVID-19 WEEKLY SURVEILLANCE IN NSW
          “EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WEEK 52 ENDING 1 JANUARY 2022
          “Published 13 January 2022”

          “Appendix D: Additional tables and figures”

          Page 29

          “Total COVID-19 cases by vaccination status and week reported, NSW, 16 June to 1 January 2022”

          “Vaccination Status”

          “Fully vaccinated 72,042 (71%)
          “Partially vaccinated 671 (1%)
          “No effective dose 634 (1%) – ( either 21days < since vaxxed, or unvaxxed – not specified )
          "Under investigation 19,616 (19%)
          "Not eligible (aged 0-11 years) 7,874 (8%)
          "Total 100,837 (100%)

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      • #
        tonyb

        Kalm Keith

        Fortunately, they are not running at the max over here (other than in a few places) . Hospital rates are slightly below normal for the time of year-every year you can read reports of how the hospitals are putting people in corridors. Where the covid numbers are high however and the hospital is needed, the time patients spend in the hospital is relatively short.

        ‘Excess’ deaths are slightly below normal at the moment, probably because flu deaths are relatively low. Ironically some 40% of those in hospital with covid caught it there.

        WFH requirements are being dropped today as are face masks in school. Covid passes are required only at large venues anyway, but they will be dropped next week, as will masks
        Lets hope cases continue to drop and things return to normal.

        In contrast France had over 400,000 cases today, so the pandemic is still raging in most of Europe. Ironic really, as whilst the UK has always had relatively few restrictions the last few months and seen our cases fall, France has gone the other way, imposed lots of restrictions including outdoor face masks and vaccine passports.

        They have gone way over the top, as has Austria. It is difficult to know when they will stop going down the mandatory vaccination road with all that implies.

        280

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Over here we have Western Australia.
          Their President Macrowan prides himself on keeping the state gate locked and COVID19 out.

          One day he will open the gate.

          And everyone will get covid.

          It’s called delaying the inevitable.

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          • #
            Brenda Spence

            The one good thing, maybe, is that we have avoided the first two nasty strains.;)

            100

            • #
              Rod

              I agree Brenda, but Omicron is the opportunity to open up.

              90

              • #

                Deaths in Western Australia from Covid in the community in the entire pandemic = 1 (or possibly zero, I’m not sure).

                Days in lockdown since June last year = 12.

                Borders are the easiest, cheapest, most successful tool against any pandemic. Borders mean no masks, no lockdown, no mandatory vax and no Chinese bioweapons. It was also what the people of WA wanted. Polls in favor hit 95% at one point. Does Democracy matter, or should the wishes of the Prime Minister of Sydney count more?

                McGowan is panicking now, a petty dictator. Appalling.

                We all die “inevitably”. Perhaps delaying the inevitable is not such a stupid plan?

                15

              • #
                Peter C

                Borders are the easiest, cheapest, most successful tool against any pandemic. Borders mean no masks, no lockdown, no mandatory vax and no Chinese bioweapons. It was also what the people of WA wanted. Polls in favor hit 95% at one point. Does Democracy matter, or should the wishes of the Prime Minister of Sydney count more?

                Fair points. Unfortunately border Quarantine has been appalling in all states but esp Victoria. I don’t think our health departments know what it means. Nor do they understand the difference between quarantine and isolation of infected people.

                Democracy should matter and we live in a Federation. That has been forgotten for at least a generation.
                We have two levels of democracy and different perspective apply in each case.
                The Federal government was in favour of opening up the country yet PM Morrison agreed to the use of the army (federal) to lock up aborigines in the NT (not even a state!). What was he thinking?

                50

              • #
                acementhead

                … no Chinese bioweapons.

                Stop blaming the Chinese.

                Covid was created in Fort Detrick and taken to Wuhan by the US Military Games team that stayed in a hotel 250 metres from the “wet market”, rather than at the games village(25 Km away from the hotel) adjacent to the main games venue, where all the other teams stayed. Five members of the US team were hospitalised in Wuhan not long after they arrived(less than 2 weeks). The cover story was that it was Malaria. That’s BS. First, there wasn’t time for Malaria symptoms to develop and second, nobody contracts Malaria in a modern wuhan hotel. It just doesn’t happen.

                00

              • #
                paul courtney

                Mr. cementhead: I’m sure you’re right, but GA needs to see a citation. I’m surprised he didn’t chime in already.

                P.S. I do not want a citation for your little fantasy, GA does.

                00

      • #

        KK -Simon said “rates” are low not numbers. So the news is right about hospitals being overloaded. It is not a contradiction.

        111

    • #
      Mantaray Yunupingu

      Simon. We can all discuss this possibility, but if one does believe the gene-jabs ARE the reason, then both Pfizer and the WHO telling us that the gene-jabs do not work against Omicron “should” dent that belief. Shouldn’t it?

      Does it?

      270

    • #
      Mike

      If you truly want to compare high vaccination rates vs low vaccination rates I challenge you to go to the Our World In Data site and compare only Africa and Europe. This takes away any single country anomalies and provides a clear picture of the overall effectiveness of the vaccines. Compare People Fully Vaccinated and then compare Confirmed Deaths. If you can still convince yourself that vaccines are effective you are a True Believer.

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    • #
      Peter Fitzroy

      But you can answer your question yourself Simon, vaccination rates are available from ‘our world in data’ Covid statistics from ‘worldometer’. Both list values by country, so you can select say Russia (low vaccination number) and the UK (high vaccination number) and compare per 1000 of population. For fun, you could also use those countries which allegedly have distributed horse dewormer.

      I have to tell you though, apart form the negligible effect of alternatives to the vaccines, there is no clear picture in support of your alternative hypothesis.

      In this case I will assume a red thumb means that I don’t understand the data

      250

      • #

        No the red thumbs is for idio** calling IVM a horsedewormer, knowing it’s a drug designed from Merck for human use. But you don’t care about truth, it’s well known.

        590

        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Then provide a link, not an assertion

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          • #
            clarence.t

            wow, you really have missed a lot, haven’t you.

            IVM is a anti-parasite drug that was developed for use in humans, but found to be exceptionally useful in livestock as well.

            If you don’t know these facts.. you should.

            Wiki..

            Ivermectin is an antiparasitic medication used to treat infestations in humans include head lice, scabies, river blindness, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, ascariasis and lymphatic filariasis. In veterinary medicine, it is used to prevent and treat heartworm and acariasis, among other indications.

            Also proves very useful against corona viruses.

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          • #
            Bozotheclown

            Peter Viceroy says:

            Then provide a link, not an assertion

            But then does not provide a link refuting any of the known uses for Ivermectin.

            Hippo Crit and more, loudly comes to mind…

            191

          • #
            Shannon Pace

            here you go, Pete…

            go your hardest…

            https://ivmmeta.com/

            100

          • #
            John Hultquist

            American Academy of Dermatology:

            https://www.aad.org/public/diseases/a-z/head-lice-treatment

            Ivermectin lotion: Approved to treat head lice in people 6 months of age and older, this medicine offers convenience. Invermectin treats most head lice with just one use and without the need to comb nits out of the hair.

            60

          • #
      • #
        clarence.t

        see comment by Vicki below

        “Interesting to note countries like Japan, India, El Salvador, Indonesia, Brazil which use Ivermectin at the very bottom of chart for numbers.”

        Close the other eye.. you might see better.

        260

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Modelling is an extremely useful tool in engineering but must be done properly.

        The political use of the term is deliberate misrepresentation of the very clear science that absolutely denies Man Made Global Warming. Anyone who knows “modeling” would immediately point to the absence of any mechanism being modeled that correctly links atmospheric temperature with atmospheric CO2 levels. The UNIPCCC models do not attempt that.

        Similarly the CV19 modeling is nothing but a vague bit of waffle that politicians use to enhance the sciency blabbering about The Virus and the importance of being VaXXinated.

        When all formerly functioning nations are suitably in Debt to Big Pharma and in serious default mode, the WEF team in Davos will come to our rescue and take over.

        GHunt and Scotty with then be retired to their well earned splendor, near Trumble, in New York city.

        100

        • #
          tonyb

          Kalm Keith

          Yes, when done properly. This article gives hope that others might see that distinction not only with covid but with climate

          ” MailOnline reports that a heated Westminster Hall discussion took place on Tuesday about lockdowns, in which Conservative MP Bob Seely called the use of modelling a “national scandal” and argued SAGE’s projections created a “climate of manipulated fear”. He said:

          Thanks to some questionable modelling, poorly presented and often misrepresented, I think it is true to say that never before has so much harm been done to so many by so few based on so little, questionable, potentially flawed data.

          I believe the use of data is pretty much getting up there for national scandal. This is not just the fault of the modellers but it’s how their work was interpreted by public health officials, by the media and yes, by politicians and sadly by Government too.

          Modelling and forecasts were the ammunition that drove lockdown and created a climate of manipulated fear. I believe that creation of fear was pretty despicable and pretty unforgivable.”

          40

    • #
      GreatAuntJanet

      Kim Iverson from The Hill is talking about the reality of the crimes committed handling this bug – your precious vaccination does not bear up well. https://youtu.be/GrFKef23CoI

      110

    • #
    • #
      RickWill

      We won’t know the answer without comparing similar populations with different vaccination rates.

      There is already enough data to confirm that case fatality rate is an inverse of the vaccination level.

      This is Fatality rate:
      https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=Australia&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=mortalityRate-daily-7&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk-wks&extra=United%20States%2CUnited%20Kingdom%2CGermany%2CRussia#countries-normalized

      This is vaccination level:
      https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=Australia&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccineFully&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk-wks&extra=United%20States%2CUnited%20Kingdom%2CGermany%2CRussia#countries-normalized

      NSW hospitalisations are now declining so past the peak there. Victoria’s hospitalisations has probably peaked but need to view in a few more days.

      There is no more flattening the curve, covid is in the let it rip phase and the vaccines are dramatically reducing hospitalisations:
      https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Global&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=owid&xaxis=right#countries

      Cases globally now appear to be at a peak.

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      • #

        Rick, CFR depends on testing, and also on the quality of medical care. It also depends hugely on Delta v Omicron, vitamin D levels, general fitness and nutrition.

        It’s nearly meaningless to blend all those variables and pretend one factor was the only one that matters.

        The vaxes did reduce hospitalization and death (due to Covid) for Delta and earlier variants.

        It’s all different now. How long is the honeymoon for the vaxes against Omicron? Is that 2 weeks to 12 weeks, or has it shrunk? What week does being vaxxed become a negative risk?

        111

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    The two standout points are;

    “Even now, we don’t know the after effects or “sequelae” — like the long Covid tally, ”

    and

    since we “keep injecting 90% of the population with a leaky ineffective vaccine, the next variant-of-concern is in production right now.”

    Importantly, that long Covid tally should include the appalling “tally” of deaths, damage and maimings caused by the VaXXines and the immense societal damage linked to the Politicised Covid Interventions.

    That an initial two week lockdown to get things set up properly has been running now for two years is unacceptable, and our leaders must be brought to account for the damage they have wrought on our nation.

    PCI has ripped the guts out of our nation, and it is unlawful.

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  • #
    Ian1946

    How the modellers got it wrong. The old saying garbage in equals garbage out is even more valid in the 21st century. To be out by so much should destroy the credibility of these academics producing this rubbish.

    We have seen the same with climate models proving to be wildly inaccurate.
    Words fail me, but reaching new medians of mediocracy come to mind.

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    • #
      Chris

      Ian , there was interesting article that stated that modellers do not get the modelling wrong. They put out what is required to get the result that their employer wants. They don’t use real data just made up stuff .

      The British Government used psychologists and made up modelling to scare people into submission.
      We all wondered why Ferguson was still employed when he got everything wrong. It turns out he got everything just the way the government wanted. The politicians could then use the modelling to justify their draconian edits.

      If there was any credibility in modelling, its use in Climate fear and Covid fear has shot it to pieces.

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    • #
      • #
        Rod

        Even last decade I was reviewing a groundwater modelling report by a certified hydrographic consultant. The modelling got the shallow water table running up hill. Very impressive, I wish I could have seen that water! Alas, it all proved to be false, it seems that all groundwater follows the laws of physics.
        *note that in confine systems groundwater can create pressure heads which have the local effect of getting water working against gravity. This was not the situation in the above example.

        60

  • #
    John R Smith

    So the unraveling begins in the UK.

    110

  • #
    Phillip Sweeney

    The CDC confirmed that in the USA most people who die of (Actually with) COVID are older than 85 and have at least 4 other comorbitiies.

    These are the same class of people most likely to die during a typical flu season

    220

    • #
      Mal

      Duhh!
      Stating the bleeding obvious.
      Why are we destroying the economy and the lives of the young for a cohort of people with a limited residual life left
      Nature tries to keep the population healthy by eliminating the weak.
      Humans try and keep oldies alive forever
      Note I’m 71 and quite fit
      I will look after my health, but when the time comes, I will let go knowing I’ve led a full life

      40

  • #

    Interesting to note countries like Japan, India, El Salvador, Indonesia, Brazil which use Ivermectin at the very bottom of chart for numbers.

    310

  • #
    Dave of Reedy Creek, Qld.

    I notice that we all have to go to overseas places like Europe and Africa for information STILL! The vague and random accounts given in Australia mean nothing eg. number of people in ICU. What happens to heart attack victims, stroke, accident ad other people? It reads like everyone in there has Covid. Then there is the random way of announcing deaths with a multi line list that tells us very little. Hard to believe the powers that be are not being evasive to say the least.

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    • #
      MarkMcD

      Also of note is how they separate out reporting on Moronic from the deaths and severe cases. apart from a few non-professional blog sites I haven’t seen any ACTUAL data of how many are dying FROM Moronic variant – the deaths and even hospitalisations are in one para and the mention of moronic in another, clearly hoping the reader will link the 2.

      But unless South Africa is a radical outlier, the severe cases and deaths we are being told about pretty much HAVE to be Delta.

      And the double-vaxxed and v2+booster victims are rapidly overtaking those of the unvaxxed, and the unvaxxed still have healthy immune systems.

      Maybe the ‘Authority’ types are hoping all the damaged gullible types will die off before they can mount a retaliation for the lies and propaganda that had them all eagerly jumping on the rail cars to their new accomodat… I mean lining up to be shot… I mean accpeting the jabs?

      And will we ‘conspiracy theorists’ EVER hear an apology from the damaged and sick victims?

      110

  • #
    Robber

    The problem with modelling is that it is based on assumptions, not predictions. And the model results that get the most attention are those with the worst case assumptions. Remember the IPCC’s RCP8.5?

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    • #
      Leo G

      The problem with modelling is that it is based on assumptions, …

      A model is the expression of an hypothesis which is formulated to explain observations and to be the basis for predictions which in turn can be tested against new observations.
      If the new observations fail to affirm the model, then the model needs to be amended. If no model can be devised that affirms the hypothesis, then the hypothesis needs to change.
      Unfortunately, where politics or critical theory have any significant role in the assessment, more successful hypotheses are ignored and more often it’s the data that is amended.
      The problem with such modelling is not so much that it is based on assumptions, but more that the assumptions are concealed or not open to question- the faulty hypothesis is maintained beyond reason.

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  • #
    John Connor II

    10% as severe…

    Which is what I said it would be, over a month ago, as per my “special sources” which are VERY accurate.
    Heh..😊

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  • #
    MarkMcD

    or how long natural immunity will last, or whether there is some inflammatory, or autoimmune side effect

    Would someone like to do the research into the correlation between modern ‘vaccines’ and autoimmune diseases?

    See, in more recent times the vasxxes often contain foetal tissue or DNA and the immune system learns to attack those as well as the virus. And we all have some of those cells floating around.

    I can only imagine what the immune system reaction is to ‘healthy’ cells prodded into producing spike proteins might be, but we already know anyone vaxxed has an increasingly damaged immune system with each extra genetic experiment they volunteer for…

    A lot of people are turning up in hospital for other things, and being diagnosed with Covid

    This has always been the case. In the USA hospitals get paid big money for covid cases, leading to the absurdities we have all heard about.

    Italy revised their covid data, separating out ‘died WITH covid’ from ‘died FROM covid’ and lost 97% of their covid deaths.

    And most countries count it as covid death if ‘it can be reasonably assumed’ they might have been exposed to covid and we all know about assumptions.

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    • #
      Leo G

      Italy revised their covid data, separating out ‘died WITH covid’ from ‘died FROM covid’ and lost 97% of their covid deaths.

      Their is another group not represented in the data- those who die from CoV-2 but not with CoV-2.

      A close relative died in a Sydney hospital last August. He had a reaction to a drug prescribed for sleeplessness but which triggered a heart irregularity associated with a long-term condition since the late 1970s. The condition was treatable but was life-threatening without the maintenance of specific medications.

      Unfortunately, he was hospitalised just as that hospital was secretively directed to repurpose as a Covid-emergency unit. ICU patients were transferred to other hospitals. My relative was transferred to a geriatric ward where a decision was made, without reference to his medical history and without permission of his family, to discontinue his long-term medication and give palliative care only. He died as a consequence.

      In effect, he died as a result of Covid but not with Covid- like many others, I expect.

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      • #
        Bozotheclown

        Sorry for your loss Leo.

        As a person with several well controlled preexisting conditions, I shudder at these real life stories.

        Please explore wrongful death claims at least. I know that won’t restore your family.

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  • #
    another ian

    Pending another flip,

    “Boris’s bonfire of the Covid rules: Prime Minister pledges to scrap all controls by March – including quarantine – and WFH from TODAY as cases fall by 17% in a week while hospital admissions and deaths also drop’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10417701/Boris-Johnson-set-declare-Plan-B-curbs-axed-week.html

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    TedM

    Omicron infection, almost certainly the safest way to gain broad immunity to covid19 for most of us. No wonder Mr McGowan doesn’t want us to get it.

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    • #

      No. McGowan is just trying to protect his own reputation, knowing hospitals here will go under quickly, and using the only tool he knows of.

      It’s nothing more banal than that. But he is dangerous.

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    Tim Churchill

    I just spent 57 minutes watching this. Quite frightening, as he intends it to be.

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    RobB

    Looks like its all over. The latest news from South Africa is that the government is considering cancelling the state of disaster:

    https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/health/2022-01-19-cyril-ramaphosa-says-covid-19-council-is-considering-cancelling-state-of-disaster/

    Got back to work from summer holidays and was expecting to be faced with mandatory vaccination. Instead OHS observed that Cape Town has reached herd immunity, with 90% of Capetonians having some form of immunity based on sero-prevalence testing. There was no longer any talk of mandates.

    It seems that a lot of my vaccinated colleagues and their relatives came down with omicron over the holidays. On the other hand, nobody I know who has been taking ivermectin has ever became ill with any variant of covid. Funny that.

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    KP

    Three of us geriatrics having tea yesterday, one an ex-pharmacist, one and ex-botanist, and they were telling me the problem with my being un-vaxxed was that “we” were the breeding grounds for new variants and they expect some new variant to ruin this year from some un-vaxxed 3rd world country.

    So getting any sanity, or even getting the truth out there, might take much longer than people think! We’ll be told the emergency is over because the vaccines worked so well and any further problems will due to those dammed un-vaxxed.

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      Steve of Cornubia

      As the proportion of unvaxxed shrinks (if indeed that happens) we can expect coercion, mandates and demonisation of them to actually increase. This is because firstly, the voting power of that cohort will shrink and become irrelevant to politicians’ election hopes. They will be able to cast us as the villains knowing that the majority won’t care much about us – we will be a safe target and a useful example of government determination to keep everybody ‘safe’. The tougher they get, the better they will look. Expect a lot of effort to go into blaming the unvaxxed for continuing cases, no matter what the actual data says.

      Secondly, a significant number of vaxxed people will be regretting their own vaccination but, instead of blaming the government, will focus their anger on those who didn’t give in. Like the chained guy who sees a free person walk past and, instead of wondering why the other guy is free, demands that the other guy is chained up too, they will enthusiastically get behind the restrictions on unvaxxed people.

      Then there are the rusted-on supporters of big government who have all along resented the unvaxxed simply for being disobedient.

      Then there is the fact that, rightly or wrongly, the unvaxxed are seen as being rightwing, so all lefties will revel in their pain should restrictions remain or get worse.

      All of this point to things getting much worse for the unvaxxed, irrespective of what ‘the science’ says or whether governments are forced to wind back general restrictions to save the economy.

      “Burn the witch unvaxxed!”

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        KP

        “Secondly, a significant number of vaxxed people will be regretting their own vaccination but, instead of blaming the government, will focus their anger on those who didn’t give in. Like the chained guy who sees a free person walk past and, instead of wondering why the other guy is free, demands that the other guy is chained up too, they will enthusiastically get behind the restrictions on unvaxxed people.”

        Yes, already very noticeable.

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      Forrest Gardener

      Look at it this way KP. Three intelligent people. Only one still has their marbles.

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      Analitik

      they were telling me the problem with my being un-vaxxed was that “we” were the breeding grounds for new variants and they expect some new variant to ruin this year from some un-vaxxed 3rd world country.

      The lack of science being expressed is astonishing – you should have told them to go back to their university notes and refresh themselves on how RNA virus mutations occur continually, what selection pressure is and how it relates to Darwinian evolution.

      But your old pals are far from alone. The only explanation is that people have lost the ability for critical thinking and investigation through the mass formation that has swept across western civilisation.

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        Analitik

        Actually, I now recall that last night The 7:30 Report was going to have Dr Norman S(ch)wan report on how the risk was now that new variants from un-vaxxed 3rd world countries was going to be the source for ongoing threats of CoViD post Omicron. He is probably the source of the misinformation that your friends were quoting.

        But what else should we expect from “our ABC”. Your friends probably also believe in CAGW based solely from ABC news spots and “specials”

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    Steve of Cornubia

    A number of online petitions have recently been commenced in QLD calling for the removal of coercion and segregation of unvaccinated people. One of the closed recently having gathered over 85,000 signatures – the highest number of signatories I could find for such a petition.

    Needless to say, the minister responded by saying the QLD government’s response to Covid has been successful, so they’re going to carry on doing what they’re doing. In the minister’s response, she made the following claims:

    “While vaccinated people can still be infected and transmit the virus, the higher risks associated with unvaccinated people are well documented. Unvaccinated people are far more likely to catch COVID-19, more likely to transmit it to others, and are more likely to require hospitalisation.”

    No evidence or citations were provided.

    She went on to say:

    “Nothing in the Plan affects an individual’s right to choose whether to get vaccinated. However, the Queensland Government has a responsibility to protect the community from both the direct impacts of COVID-19 and from the impacts of a surge of COVID-19 cases on the capacity of the health system.”

    Once again, the suggestion is that being forced to have the vaccination because you will otherwise lose your job be unable to feed your kids and possibly lose your home still represents a ‘choice’. You choose whether to lose your job or not.

    Meanwhile, QLD MPs remain exempt from these mandates.

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      • #
        KP

        “Meanwhile, QLD MPs remain exempt from these mandates.”

        Ah, the pigs of Animal Farm! This makes me so mad!

        Their arrogance is astounding when they do this so blatantly. “YOU do what we tell you, WE do what we want, and we don’t give a shit about what you think of it!”

        So common, all over the world. From ignoring their own lockdowns and mask mandates to partying & visiting their whores. I tell you, anyone who WANTS to be in power is just the sort of scumbag who shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near it!

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    Philip

    And Taiwan…the country no one talks about. They mustn’t be very good at controlling coivd ?

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    Ross

    Always difficult to compare country’s performance. Even though the South African deaths have only just plateaued the 7 day rolling average is roughly equivalent to Australia. In fact it wold look like Australia will start to exceed SA. Hence, having high vax rates is no guarantee of a good result. Which means South Africa may have got the “mix” about right. Minimal lockdowns, careful uptake of vaccines and also a lot of horse de-worming plus malaria prevention no doubt.

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    • #
      Analitik

      also a lot of horse de-worming plus malaria prevention no doubt

      Actually this happens not to be the case. South Africa is not one of the APOC nation so no annual dose of ivermectin, nor is it in the malaria zone so not much use of hydroxychloriquine in the general population.

      The major difference between our populations is that median age in South Africa is somewhat lower and the vaccination rate was MUCH lower when the Omicron variant became prevalent.

      I would attribute any lower hospitalization rate there to be due to some doctors (eg Chetty) actually providing effective early treatment. Here, any doctor openly attempting this is disciplined with the possibility of deregistration.

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      • #

        Talking to friends here who are ex-Pat’s from SA they report that everyone they know has had Covid in SA. Some used the antivirals, but some didn’t.

        Looters raided pharmacies and stole everything except the vaccines.

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        • #
          Analitik

          Yep, they’ve had Covid now that Omicron has swept through but not previously. I can dig up a substack article documenting this if you insist.

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          • #
            Analitik

            Here’s Alex Berenson’s article on this

            during the period when Omicron was taking off, the vast majority of South Africans had no history of a positive PCR test – no evidence they had been infected before.

            https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/remember-how-they-said-omicron-wasnt

            Here is the study that sources the article
            https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMc2119270/suppl_file/nejmc2119270_appendix.pdf

            And the most obvious counter to this notion that South African hospitalisations from Omicron were low and largely inconsequential is that IF there was a very large pool of previously infected in their population, HOW DID THIS LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE GET INFECTED WITHOUT KNOWING IF PREVIOUS VARIANTS WERE SO MUCH WORSE THAN OMICRON?

            You can’t have it both ways, Jo. Either the Omicron variant is mild or else all previous variants were also mild. Either way, Omicron is only going to badly affect those who are unhealthy so McGowan’s actions are not going to prevent WA’s hospitals from “going under” as you stated in comment #14.1. He may THINK this but that’s only because he is misinformed if his motivation is as banal as you say.

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            • #

              C’mon Analitik. You normally work at a higher level?

              1. In South Africa most cases were not tested. (Test positivity reached a shocking 20 – 30% in every wave, OWID). That’s why I quoted serum antibody studies instead — ie 60% infection history in SA before Omicron. Do you read my site?

              2. Even in the nasty variants of Wuflu the asymptomatic rate was about 45% (but ranging from 15-90% depending on definitions and study conditions) something I have posted on since the beginning. Eg Diamond Princess — half were asymptomatic. Vo, Italy, 70% mild or asymptomatic.

              Berenson hypes things too simplistically. He doesn’t have the rigorous knowledge base.

              Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the asymptomatic rate guarantees anything about the severity and deaths. Usually asymptomatic cases correlate with death rates but it’s only an elastic loose correlation, not a predictable ratio.

              No need to yell OK?

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              • #
                Analitik

                So you proved my point – Covid was never as dangerous as you have been making out (and I admit, as I had assumed from the initial news from China and then the appalling “treatment” in US hospitals).

                If there was a widespread level of previous infection, then from your reckoning, South Africa should have had overwhelmed hospitals in previous waves. They didn’t.

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              • #

                Analitik, No. You proved your own confirmation bias. I know you *really want* to believe that Chinese bioweapons were always harmless, but oh yessity, South Africa DID have overwhelmed hospitals in July 2020 and in Jan 2021.

                And it was the South African doctors working in hospitals in Nov 2021 who told us the Omicron wave was totally different. Maybe they’d know?
                “South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave”

                Things were so bad in one of the early waves in SA doctors abandon a hospital and patients fighting over oxygen tanks. Down the memory hole for you?

                Coronavirus in South Africa: Inside Port Elizabeth’s ‘hospitals of horrors’

                “”Services are starting to crumble under the strain. Covid has opened up all the chronic cracks in the system. It’s creating a lot of conflict,” he said, confirming reports that patients had been “fighting for oxygen” supplies in a ward at Livingstone Hospital in Port Elizabeth.”

                “At Livingstone Hospital – designated as the main Covid-19 hospital in the district – doctors and nurses described scenes “like a war situation” with blood and waste on the floors, a lack of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), oxygen shortages, a severe shortage of ambulances, no ventilation and patients sleeping “under newspaper”.”

                Analitik, why don’t you turn your great brain onto learning what serum antibody tests mean and look at the data instead?

                There’s a reason I went straight to that…

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            Analitik

            Please delete the second reply that I made in the attempt to work around the moderati0n filter

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  • #
    NuThink

    There is a lot today on the MSM about Heparin (a 70 year old blood thinner) being used against COVID.
    Just google Heparin Covid, there will be a lot of hits.
    So choose which ever you trust most or mistrust least.
    And available in most every hospital.

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    • #
      Analitik

      The H in the FLCCC Alliance’s MATH+ protocol stands for Heparin. The other drugs in the acronym are Methylprednisolone, Ascorbic acid (vitamin C) and Thiamine (vitamin B1)
      re Heparin

      Given the numerous clinical and scientific investigations that have demonstrated consistent, reproducible, and excessive levels of hyper-coagulation, particularly in the severely ill, the anticoagulant Heparin is used to both prevent and help in dissolving blood clots that appear with a very high frequency.

      https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/math-plus-protocol/

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    • #
      Analitik

      BTW, aspirin should be kept in your home CoVid kit for the same reason.

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      • #

        You may have a look at Aspirins sideeffects, there are many, even dangerous.

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        • #
          Analitik

          Of course aspirin has side effects – if it was released now, it would be a prescription drug. Same would apply to some other over the counter drugs. Alcohol has side effect as does nicotine.

          Importantly, aspirin is a readily available anti-clotting agent that is safe if used according to the guidelines for CoVid early treatement.

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    Analitik

    And as long as we suppress safe cheap drugs and keep injecting 90% of the population with a leaky ineffective vaccine, the next variant-of-concern is in production right now.

    Actually, I think you would need to take the vaccination rate to close to 100% including newborns upwards (with an effective vaccine) for the selection pressure to favour a doom variant with higher mortality. The Omicron variant is so infectious that a version with similar infectiousness but higher mortality would self select itself out of the host population unless it were to also evade the immunity from Omicron recovery.

    Plus the current vaccines simply don’t put much selection pressure on the Omicron variant anyway. By the time the mRNA merchants come out with their Omicron variant gene therapies, most nations will be past their infection peak and people will be loathe to shoot up more, especially as serious side effects become increasingly obvious.

    Suppressing safe cheap drugs will keep some level of pressure on for people to be vaccinated/boosted but the general population is getting over the mantra of vaccinating our way out of this, indicated by the “disappointing” uptake of booster. Many people I know are confused as to why boosters are necessary and why their promised freedom has still been not fully restored after dutifully becoming “fully vaccinated”. Plus there is a sizeable number that only got shot due to mandates that are increasingly irrelevant.

    Cheer up, Jo. It’s going the way I foretold, epidemiologically, and England has shown they way out, if only for political expediency. The narrative is cracking.

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    Bill+In+Oz

    Petrovski’s Novavax vaccine has been approved by the TGA finally.
    And the Commonwealth gov’t is buying 52 million doses.
    This one is an old fashioned protein based vaccine
    Not mRNA based.
    So it might even confer immunity to Covid !

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    • #
      Analitik

      Dr Nikolai Petrovski’s vaccine is SpikoGen. Like Novavax, it is a shot of spike proteins (+ aduvants) so not gene therapy to make your body produce spike proteins and it’s still single antigen (so narrow coverage) and still uses the Wuhan strain (extinct) spike protein as the antigen (so still a toxin being used to provoke the immune response).

      Novavax WAS the vaccine that I would have subjected myself to if forced but with the Omicron variant proving to be highly infectious, vaccine immunity evasive and mild symptomatically, exactly as I stated late November, I’ll be passing up all vaccination options and hold out for the world to wake up.

      https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/vaxine-australia-approval-covid-19-vaccine/

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      • #

        Bill, indeed. As Analytik says — Novavax is not the Adelaide vax called both Covax-19 and Spikogen and used in Iran. Both those vaxes are protein vaxes and much safer. I would prefer the Australian vax — they have chopped out two parts of the old Wuhan spike. Both the furin cleavage is gone as is the TMP. The smaller the spike the better IMHO.

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    • #
      Philip

      52 million doses. The Aus population is 25 mill, and theyre already vaccinated. So this tells us the government intends on vaccinating people well into the future ?

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      • #
        Analitik

        I wonder if this 52 million lot is part of other 151 million that the government had procured when they sent out the booster notification snail mails or if it in addition to that previously announced number?

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    Matt M

    The London School of Hygiene forecast 120,000 hospitalisations if no additional restrictions were put in place above Plan B. Yet Hospitalisations in the England peaked at 17,120. 14% or more correctly 86% incorrect modelling. When will we learn that modelling is no better than crystal ball gazing and policy, especially draconian policy should not be implemented based on this garbage. Modelling may be a place to start when you have complete unknowns but observations and accurate data are the only reliable sources for policy making.

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    Dennis

    2GB Radio

    Ben Fordham is urging Australians to keep things in perspective amid anxiety around rising COVID case numbers.

    “There have been many hopeless moments during COVID-19,” Ben admitted.

    “Last year’s lockdown from June to October was rock bottom.

    “Our current situation is better … NSW is not in a crisis.”

    Ben told his listeners that while the vaccine rollout has been slow, and rapid antigen tests hard to find, Australia recorded 2,700 COVID deaths in two years, ranking in at 99th in the world.

    In the same period:

    America recorded 850,000 COVID deaths
    150,000 in the UK
    300,000 in Russia
    486,000 in India
    Last year, between January and October, 125,000 Australians passed away.

    Coronavirus accounted for just 1.3 per cent of deaths – about 1,600 in total.

    41,000 died from cancer.
    13,000 from Dementia and Alzheimer’s.
    11,600 from heart disease.
    7,000 from strokes and brain aneurisms.
    4,000 from diabetes.
    2,500 from suicide.
    1,800 from drug overdoses.
    Almost 2,000 from accidental falls.
    On the same day 17 people died from coronavirus in NSW, an estimated 136 Australians died of cancer.

    The odds of someone dying from COVID in NSW are 0.1 per cent.

    The odds of going to hospital is 0.8 per cent and ending up in intensive care is 0.05 per cent.

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    Philip

    Im not a doctor so Ive learned to offer no opinion on Covid and do what I am told. But I can read a graph, I graduated high school in 3 unit maths so Im qualified to speak, and that graph death per millions against time shows me that the countries with the highest rates are all western nations.

    So I can conclude that they are the worst managers of Covid, (and Taiwan is the best). Why they are the worst I can not offer any opinion on as I am not qualified, but they are definitely without doubt, the worst at it, numbers are on the board. So shouldn’t they all resign for being so terrible at their jobs?

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    • #
      Ross

      Stop being so modest Phillip. It’s pretty obvious that the path that most western nations took post Feb 2020 was nearly all wrong. You don’t need to be a Doctor, virologist, epidemiologist or CHO to see that. None of it passed the pub test.

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    William Astley

    The vaccines did not stop covid, Omicron did. The covid emergency regardless is over. A failing economy is an emergency if it is not addressed.

    There is no longer a justification to force people to get vaccinated with the first release covid vaccines which are more dangerous than Omicron. The risk of first release covid vaccines is greater than Omicron.

    The covid new daily cases in France is now 475k, yet the death toll is only 300 people per day. That is less than the 400 people per day death toll, during the last French covid wave which had a peak of about 50k new daily covid cases per day.

    Those people who are dying with/from covid are very sick people who are at the end of their lives before they got covid.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

    https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-boris-johnson-health-europe-spain-1ab95ea43fa30bcb36f068c9a8664d12

    Europe considers new COVID-19 strategy: accepting the virus

    Now, almost two years later, Spain is preparing to adopt a different COVID-19 playbook. With one of Europe’s highest vaccination rates and its most pandemic-battered economies, the government is laying the groundwork to treat the next infection surge not as an emergency but an illness that is here to stay. Similar steps are under consideration in neighboring Portugal and in Britain.

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    • #

      Sideeffects of vaxxes may be result of nocebo effect, I just read about a study by Julia Haas, Sarah Ballou and Friederike Bender from Harvard Medical School and Philipps-University in Marburg. Should be published in “Jama Network Open”.

      😀

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    mwhite

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw

    Number of people who died of C19 with no other underlying causes 2020 through to September 2021

    17,371 deaths

    Numbers obtained after Freedom of Information request from the office of national statistics in the UK.

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    John+Raat

    Do modelers get anything right. Maybe not

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    Casey

    An “enhanced” virus (read “bioweapon”, maybe) is more likely to devolve to it’s grass roots stable level.

    That we’ve had a number of variants that are weaker (yes, maybe more contagious, but that still fits the “devolve to baseline” theory) tends to indicate that this novel coronavirus isn’t so much man-made but man-enhanced or man-tampered.

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