JoNova

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Indonesian study: Low Vitamin D patients ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus

Wow. If this is confirmed, Coronavirus is almost a disease of Vitamin D deficiency

Sun, photo, Chuttersnap

Missing out on the Sunshine Vitamin?

Hot off the press: A new Indonesian study of 780 people with Coronavirus found that people with a Vitamin D deficiency were much more likely to die. We discussed Vitamin D at length a few weeks ago, so we already knew Vitamin D is associated with a lower rate of respiratory illness,  but the results here are quite remarkable.

Of those who died most (85%) had a co-morbidity, the real surprise is that even more than that, 96% had low Vitamin D levels.  Of those who survived, most people had normal Vitamin D levels.  Only 7% of survivors had low or deficient Vitamin D. That is quite a split.

Vitamin D deficiency was very common among these Indonensian patients. Half of those measured did not have enough Vitamin D in their blood. Of those that did, 96% survived, and only 4% “expired”. Vitamin D looks like a good protector.

After controlling for known risk like being old, or male or having high blood pressure, a Vitamin D level described as deficient (less than 20ng/ml) was associated with a 10 fold greater risk of death. These are quite extraordinary numbers. In most medical studies an OR (odds ratio) as low as 1.3 is notable enough to get published. But these are OR’s of 10.

This doesn’t mean taking a Vit D pill will protect you. It’s possible the severe form of the disease might have caused the low Vitamin D levels, in which case taking a supplement may or may not help. Though I would keep D levels up for all the other reasons anyhow, like a reduction in cancer, flu, asthma, depression, and heart disease. “Not too shabby”. Low risk. Low cost.

Vitamin D deficiency

Just looking at the raw data, without adjusting for risk factors, suggests that when vitamin D levels fall below 30 ng/ml (moderate levels) people were 12 times as likely to die — and when they were even lower, below 20ng/ml, people were 19 times as likely to die. These were higher risks than those from the pre-existing conditions themselves.

The patients were an average age of 54. But it is sobering that the paper notes that even of the under 50s who survived, 80% are still in hospital.

As I wrote about Vitamin D

The cost of one night in intensive care would provide vitamin D supplements for a month for 3,000 people.

Grant et al, put out a call for people to supplement with D during this pandemic, pointing out that this will reduce the incidence of the co-morbidities that are hit hardest by Coronavirus. They also point out that D reduces respiratory tract infections, and is actively involved in our own anti-viral defences in at least three different ways. Vitamin D induces cathelicidin and defensins (polypeptides that our immune system uses like surface-to-air missiles against bacteria or enveloped viruses). D also reduces production of proinflammatory cytokines (the messengers that elict the deadly cascade of inflammation).

If the effect of Vitamin D is this strong, it changes everything. It would explain why Coronavirus has hit so hard in the northern colder climates, where wealthier people stay indoors, and cover up, and suffer from Vitamin D deficiencies. The news tonight was full of stories of Remdesivir reducing mortality by a few percent and shortening hospital stays by a day or two. Instead something so much cheaper may be so much more effective.

ABSTRACT

This is a retrospective cohort study which included two cohorts (active and expired) of 780 cases with laboratory-confirmed infection of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia. Age, sex, co-morbidity, Vitamin D status, and disease outcome (mortality) were extracted from electronic medical records. The aim was to determine patterns of mortality and associated factors, with a special focus on Vitamin D status. Results revealed that majority of the death cases were male and older and had pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D serum level. Univariate analysis revealed that older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels were associated with increasing odds of death. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality outcome of cases.

For Vitamin D status, cases were classified based on their serum 25(OH)D levels:

(1) normal – serum 25(OH)D of > 30 ng/ml,

(2) insufficient – serum 25(OH)D of 21-29 ng/ml, and

(3) deficient – serum 25(OH)D of < 20 ng/ml.

h/t David E

Things worth knowing about Coronavirus:

REFERENCE

Raharusun, Prabowo and Priambada, Sadiah and Budiarti, Cahni and Agung, Erdie and Budi, Cipta. (2020) Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study (April 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3585561 26th April 2020, Preprint.

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Indonesian study: Low Vitamin D patients ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus , 9.6 out of 10 based on 64 ratings

274 comments to Indonesian study: Low Vitamin D patients ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus

  • #
    Andre Dykes

    There is widespread concern in the UK that the virus seems to be more fatal to BAME individuals than Caucasians. As the latter are better adapted to synthesising vitamin D in higher latitudes, that seems to confirm these findings.

    210

    • #
      Slithers

      Doh!
      I have been telling readers here that for quite some time. Get your vitamin D levels checked and/or take a vitamin D supplement!
      Nice to find that Logic is often the best approach to problem solving.

      160

      • #
        JanEarth

        Just take the Vit D supplement especially if you live in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. If you work indoors then you probably need it no matter where you live.

        Safe is better than sorry.

        20

    • #
      sophocles

      Thus spake Dr John Campbell (UK): “There’s only one reason for a white skin and that’s to make Vitamin D easily.” (paraphrased) Those with white skins: make the most of it. The Southern Hemisphere’s Sickness Season is now only three months away. May and June will have too little sun so lay in your tablets and supplement that way. Get your vitamin D levels up.

      For those of you with natural sun-tans: don’t let that stop you. Get supplement tablets. Start with at the very least 4000 IU per day and if you want, build up. Any less than 4000 IU per day is no better than farting in the wind.

      Bill: tell everyone where they can get it

      Thank you Jo. I’m feeling a bit smug. Those who die are set up for death by being deficient in Vitamin
      D 3. That’s proved. Exactly as I thought.

      You’re right, too, Slithers. Not finding out your Vit D status could be fatal. The virus doesn’t pick and choose: it just takes the weakest and the weakest, as far as it is concerned, are those with Vitamin D Deficiency or worse. So listen to Slithers and find out. (That goes for me too!)

      We need to gather our evidence and write to our politicians. Tablets of D3 for everybody is way cheaper than shutting down the economies.

      Take a Vitamin D supplement through winter all the time and take vitamin K 2 — D3 and K2 are good partners.

      (I’ve told the Big Guy Upstairs what I think about his cloudy days. He’s obviously heard me: yesterday and today were 10/10ths cloud with not a bit of sunshine. I’m now thinking about how I can apologize … )

      150

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Good call sophocles, all those months ago.

        Jo too.

        You converted me. I might even up the ante.

        30

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Vitamin D3 is sold in chemists in Oz
        But only at very low strengths -1000 IU or less.
        So I buy mine via online
        And can get 10,000 IU oil based capsules.
        As for which online supplier ?
        I don’t do advertising
        Folks have to look for themselves.

        20

        • #
          Leo G

          Take care not to accumulate a toxic dose of vitamin d3. Daily doses at 40,000 IU over a month can induce toxic effects.

          11

          • #
            sophocles

            Where did you get that from?

            If you have a white skin, you make that dose by sitting in the sun at solar noon for about an hour. (a darker skin will take longer). If you’ve built up to it, you won’t burn. Nor will you have any toxic effects if you repeat that every day for a month. Your body can handle it.

            Try reading this from the Vitamin D Council.

            You fix it easily: stop taking it.

            10

      • #
        Serge Wright

        There are some risks with too much D3, mainly due to it’s effect of increasing calcium absorption. Most supplement companies limit the pill dosage to 1000IU and there are warnings of taking more than 6000IU. The recommended daily dosage is 1000IU and the maximum safe level is 4000IU per day. The good news is that the body stores D3 in fat cells and the liver and kidneys turn the stored vitamin D into the active form when body needs it. As long as you take 1000IU each day you’ll be protected.

        11

        • #
          sophocles

          That’s why you should also supplement with Vitamin K 2 at 120mcg per day for males or 90 mcg/day for females. Vit-D and Vit K 2 are excellent partners.

          20

        • #
          sophocles

          Those levels you quote are set by health departments who haven’t yet realised the Second World War is not only over but has been for over seventy years.

          10

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          Serge, go online and look for the website of
          Jeff T Bowles on Vitamin D3.
          He has also written a book available from Amazon:
          “The Miraculous Results of Extremely High Doses of Vitamin D3″
          Note he has been doing exactly this for
          Toxicity doe happen on rare occasions
          When someone takes 1,000,000 IU’s a day for months on end.
          ( However this happened only if the persons did not take K2 as well )

          00

  • #
    A C Osborn

    Not just vitamin D, Vitamin C and Vitamin B12 also help to boost the immune system.

    90

    • #

      well there is a reason these things are essential so the question is what about it? Any evidence that a deficiency is linked to deaths or high doses improve outcomes?

      73

      • #
        Slithers

        The answer is elementary, THERE IS NO MONEY IN AVOCATING AN PRE-EXISTING MEDICATION WITH NO PATENT. They are all in it for the money!

        80

      • #

        ” Any evidence that a deficiency is linked to deaths or high doses improve outcomes?”

        For Covid, the evidence is only the weak association type. But for other things (including a reduction in Co-morbidities) there is good evidence, and even mechanisms in detail, and there are several, both antiviral and also anti inflammatory, and also in reducing co-morbidities. It was all posted here with many references on April 9.

        Read it again.
        http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/perhaps-solve-the-other-pandemic-vitamin-d-deficiency-to-help-beat-coronavirus/

        To dose, take D3, Cholecalciferol, 1000IU – 2000IU or get 15 mins of sunlight (adjusted for skin type and latitude etc). Or in times of global pandemic, do both for a while, especially if you are coming out of winter. There is low risk of side effects. Big safety margin.

        People taking D would be wise to take K2 as well. That’s another post.

        And yes all Vitamins are essential. But some we get enough of. I was not at all surprised to find an association with Vit D and Covid, but I did not expect it to be so large. This is almost too good to be true level, “smashing it” numbers. Hence we need the usual double blind large trial of supplements to confirm (but given the lose risk of supplementing in the meantime, seems wise too).

        Cause and effect is not necessarily inferred here. Often in these kinds of studies when people supplement to get blood levels up they don’t get the benefit of getting levels up naturally. Most single dose vitamins fail to live up to their hopes. But Vitamin D appears to be an exception (based on other studies, not Covid ones). It’s very rare for any vitamin to affect “all cause mortality” but as I described in that previous post, that’s what we see with D.

        80

        • #
          StephenP

          How much skin do we need to expose for the 15 minutes?
          Is there a significant difference between a sunny and cloudy day in the length of time we need to expose?

          10

          • #

            Stephen, you can get cheap UV meters on ebay, but most cities have a UV index online. Cloud blocking of UV depends on how thick the clouds are. Hard to answer and changes by the second.

            I figure the more skin exposed the more IU of D3 created. It’s a question of how much time you can spare to sit in the sun, and also of spreading the load of UV damage across more skin area as well. We dont want to concentrate it on just forearms and faces which is less than ideal for lots of reasons. But I appreciate there are logistical and societal limits… :-)

            Another reason for large backyards and to say no thanks to high density living.

            80

            • #
              Peter C

              Societal Limits to Skin exposure to sunshine!

              OMG. I looked it up. I wont even give a reference to the site.

              20

          • #
            sophocles

            Don’t be scared: remove all clothing except for your shorts if you’re a male. Be a little more inventive/careful if you’re a female.

            I do 15 minutes for each side. That seems to be enough.

            Don’t use any sunscreen so watch your skin: if you show any reddening (erythema), dress at once and go inside. A sunburn is a big set-back.

            10

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Cold wet windy Winter has arrived in South Australia !
              It’s May 2nd !
              Could we please beg the Gore Bull warming Goddess
              To bless us with some warm weather for a while ?
              Please ?
              Sarc !

              10

              • #
                sophocles

                Thanks Bill. It’s hit NZ now. At least I know this has been peer reviewed and pretested :-D

                00

        • #
          StephenP

          How much skin do we need to expose for the 15 minutes?
          Is there a significant difference between a sunny and cloudy day in the length of time we need to expose?

          10

          • #
            sophocles

            Expose as much skin as you can.

            I wear only a pair of short denim shorts

            I make sure I get 15 minutes per side.

            Don’t use sunscreen.

            If your skin is darker than caucasian white, increase your time accordingly.

            Whatever you do: watch your skin so you don’t burn. Burning is a big setback.
            You’ll get the feel for it and find times that suit you quite quickly.

            I’m sunbathing through winter almost into summer, so I use the clearest skies I can. Peter Fitzroy points out somewhere further on that UV is not necessarily blocked by clouds, but by the gods, the warmth surely is. I hate f-f-f-freezing so I leave cloudy days for the eskimos like Peter.

            Because I can’t get sunny days every week, I also supplement on the cloudy days at 4000IUper day from a bottle.

            00

        • #
          Bill Burrows

          Hi Jo & Sophocles – I am a little concerned about your recommendations that Vit K should be considered along with Vit D supplements to alleviate possible COVID 19 impacts, without an appropriate disclaimer. As an oldtimer with atrial fibrillation I am a long term user of warfarin medication to reduce my chances of getting blood clots and their potential serious consequences. Vit K is the recommended antidote to counteract excessive warfarin intake or uncontrolled bleeding after an accident. Any person who has been prescribed warfarin should be wary of buying and taking over the counter Vit K supplements at the same time. (I defer to any trained medico who might like to make further comments).

          40

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Spot on Bill. ‘Wake up call’ is in order.

            11

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Or appropriate disclaimers.

              10

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                in my defense, i advertise my non expert status as often as is possible….for example…i use ‘in my non expert opinion’ IMNEO quite a lot….that way i can keep studying and so forth in my case. Many here know i make this disclaimer quite a lot. Even when i think i am extremely right.

                10

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Personally, i do not take any supplements other than as much natto, high in natural K2 that i can eat lol.

                Supplements remind me of superphosphate….great short term results/yeilds but beyond that is anyone’s guess IMNEO (in my non expert opinion)

                11

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Ok…natto is not a supplement. No problem in my case then.

                10

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Jo mentioned Vitamin K which is clotting factor.
            However I think she meant to write K2
            Vitamin K2 is completely different to Vitamin K.
            K2 is commonly taken with D3 as an antidote to osteopena.
            Very necessary in us older folk

            20

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Vitamin K1 (clotting factor) and K2 are different.

              Yes i know Jo merely jots down K….as to which one/type is a guess i do not investigate further.

              Vitamin D is completely different to most other vitamins. In fact, it’s a steroid hormone produced from cholesterol when your skin is exposed to the sun.

              call me prejudiced, but i am not a big fan of steroids…for whatever reason i cannot figure out yet. That’s just me.

              20

          • #
            sophocles

            Vitamin K 1 is the clotting factor.

            Vitamin K 2 is vitamin D 3′s buddy:
            - Vitamin D 3 is very efficient at pulling calcium out of the gut
            - Vit D 3 is not so good about parking it.
            - Vitamin K 2 is very fussy about where it parks calcium. It’s the important vitamin
            in our calcium metabolism
            - D 3 and K 2 partner very well.

            (Yes, I know that’s very simplistic but it’s easy to remember.)

            Okay environment skeptic: go look up osteoporous and osteomalacia.

            Remember: The dinosaurs wouldn’t have lasted at all if it wasn’t for colecalciferol, vit D 3, making strong bones for them. Look at the leg bones of the titanosaurs — they would have used huge quantities of D 3 building those. They wouldn’t have left fossils either.

            A simple guide to K1 and K2

            10

      • #
        Leo G

        The was a systematic revue article about Vitamin D for Treatment and Prevention of Infectious Diseases published in Endocrine Practice in June 2009. Here is the link to the later author manuscript.

        20

      • #
        max

        like many thinks in life nothing is only white or black — but they do not tech it this way.

        Coronavirus Crisis Reopens 150-Year-Old Controversy By Karen Selick

        French scientist Louis Pasteur (1822-1895) is widely celebrated as “the father of germ theory”— the idea that we become sick when our bodies are invaded by foreign organisms such as bacteria, molds, fungi, and of course viruses..

        What’s not widely known is that other French scientists working in the same field in that era held somewhat different beliefs, known as the “terrain theory”. They believed that the most important factor that determines whether or not a person becomes ill is not the presence of a germ, but rather the preparedness of the body’s internal environment (the “soil” or terrain) to repel or destroy the germ.
        One of  the main terrain-theory scientists was Antoine Béchamp (1816-1908). Pasteur and Béchamp were bitter rivals over several scientific issues.

        The other main proponent of the terrain theory was Claude Bernard (1813-1878), who (notwithstanding their differences of opinion on scientific issues) was a close friend and associate of Pasteur’s. At the end of his life, Pasteur is said to have recognized the importance of what Bernard had been trying to tell him, remarking, “Bernard avait raison. Le germ n’est rien, c’est le terrain qui est tout.” (Bernard was right. The germ is nothing, it’s the soil that is everything.)

        https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/no_author/coronavirus-crisis-reopens-150-year-old-controversy/

        if western medicine tell me I am finish I will follow this:

        Murray Rothbard: “When they tell me I’m terminal, I’ll look for a quack.”

        20

  • #
    tonyb

    This is interesting and could explain a lot as its been an exceptionally dull winter in the Uk with lots of ran . Ironically since the lockdown at the end of March we have had the sunniest April on record but if you want to sunbathe in a park or sit on a bench to soak up the vitamin D the police are likely to have words.

    How do we know if we are deficient in Vitamin D?

    170

    • #
      Salome

      There is a blood test, but if you are not an outdoorsy sort of person, you can probably assume you are deficient or at least insufficient.

      110

    • #
      GD

      Ironically since the lockdown at the end of March we have had the sunniest April on record but if you want to sunbathe in a park or sit on a bench to soak up the vitamin D the police are likely to have words

      In Victoria Australia, we had a mild Summer, but Autumn has been surprisingly pleasant (until now), and your point stands. With the great weather, it is perfect to go out for exercise and to enjoy Nature, but you also risk being pulled up by Policeman Plod for going beyond the governmental boundaries.

      Now that the weather here is heading towards Winter, our socialist pro-lockdown Premier won’t have much trouble controlling the masses.

      From what I’ve read about the British police and civil liberties, Victoria’s police are a carbon copy.

      200

      • #
        Just Thinkin'

        Maybe OUR Grubbnmnt knew about this Vitamin D thing.

        And wanted the spread to be greater. For the greater good of the people, of course.

        And then there was the fiasco of the “accidentally on purpose” release of
        thousands of passengers into the WIDER community…NO official will suffer for this either.

        Follow the money and prepare for The New World Order, the saviour of the world!

        165

        • #
          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Totally agree.

            KK

            43

            • #

              Guys. You give the government far too much credit for organization and knowledge.

              Always assume bumbling incompetence first. Is it possible they have no idea, believe that RDA’s are “scientifically proven” and adjusted to the best point on the mortality U curve? (Or more likely that the question itself has not even occurred to them?).

              Is it also possible that it’s fashionable to promote expensive pharmaceuticals instead of cheap supplements or free time in the sun. Who benefits… Follow the money.

              Is it also possible that the brains trust of the West demanded we avoid the sun for the last 30 years and now don’t want to highlight how they overdid it and people suffered?

              Are there studies like this being done in the West, and if not, why was something so important left to a developing nation?

              160

              • #
                Boris

                All good questions.

                But I rarely assume “bumbling incompetence first”.

                I usually ask first who benefits and where would such a trajectory be taking us especially when I consider our monetary system, climate “science”, 9-11 etc etc.

                51

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                I stopped using sunblock about 15 years ago.
                Something about the whole
                Slip slap slop thing smelled.
                And after all it was Philipp Adams brainchild.

                51

              • #
                tonyb

                bill in oz

                if you stopped using sun block then you are responsible for saving the great barrier reef, for wasn’t there a study a few years ago that said that sun cream was helping to destroy it?

                30

              • #

                Yes Jo! Sunshine and fresh air are free but some politicians want to derived people of them and fine them (except union building workers) for partaking. People in aged care should be free to go outside but of course need to take care to avoid crowds and close contacts. If they want to live longer they should exercise by walking and swimming (especially on the beach. We went swimming yesterday (in Qld the beaches were meant to open) and when we were walking back to the car saw two policemen go down to the beach. We learnt later that that two older people we know were ordered to go home when they were going to pick up their towels and surfboard. The action of a police state. Must be worse in the socialist state of Victoria which appears to be in the dark both mentally and physically.

                41

              • #

                That sunblock thing always made me laugh.

                In my time in the RAAF, right from day one on the flight lines, from 1969 till 1980, with four flying squadrons, we always stripped down to just shorts and a Tee Shirt, and for all Summer, it was minus that Tee shirt, and you could always pick out the Flying Squadron guys at any Base, as they were always the brownest. And to get even browner, we used some of the sun screens, (only we called them tanning lotions) as much for tanning as for protection, and the NCO’s always recommended creams for protection. Most of us used Hawaiian Tropic mostly spf 4 or 8, so right from the early 70′s we were aware of those spf levels.

                So when that slip slop slap campaign started, the go to was always spf 15, and that, for a long time was the standard, and the one with the most protection, as it offered 95% blocking of those ‘super dangerous’ sun’s rays, and for years it was the (legislated) maximum protection that was available.

                So, a few years later, they introduced spf 30 and then spf higher, and higher again. All of them were between 96% and 98% blocking, and please, ‘excuse me’ if anyone can pick the difference between a 95% and 96% blockage.

                Also of note here was that with those higher spf, there was always a large increase in price.

                95% spf sunblock was treated with disdain from then on, almost as if it offered zero protection, and not the 95% we were all told it provided.

                Always, always, always ….. follow the money.

                Man some of those images of a typical 76 Squadron flight line in 1972/3 bring looks of horror now when I show them to family.

                Tony.

                70

              • #

                TonyfromOz in moderation May 1 at 5.30PM.

                Tony.

                10

              • #
                sophocles

                You might appreciate this:

                In 1935, you had 1 chance in 1700 of developing a melanoma.

                Today, you have 1 chance in 66 of developing a melanoma.

                Sun screens were invented in 1935.

                Neither Bill in Oz nor I use sunscreens.

                00

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘NO official will suffer for this either.’

          Its still under investigation by the authorities.

          50

        • #
          Slithers

          Doh! Doh!
          Been saying that for some time as well.
          Where are the WHO & MSM on telling the 7+ BILLION humans who have no immunity to this virus that Vitamin D levels are an important defense mechanism in reducing the risk/severity of COVID-19!

          90

          • #

            I hope neither of you are being serious! Are you going to say that each and every new piece of information was actually already known but withheld- just because something something dark forces?

            The first information way back at the start of all this, that was given to the public by every health agency and every doctor was to wash hands, avoid social contact and eat well and exercise specifically because staying healthy is hugely important for fighting/preventing infections. They all specifically addressed the issue. No they didn’t specifically say watch your VitD levels but low vitamin D is clearly not healthy.

            36

            • #
              Mark D.

              Not so fast Gee, most people that are low on Vit D do not know or even expect that they are low.

              If Vit D is so very important then don’t you think they could make a bit more “official” noise and campaign about it?

              So they either know about it and are withholding the importance or they don’t really know. Can’t be both.

              100

              • #

                They can know about it and not consider it to be more significant than the 1000 other health indicators.

                Like I said, the primary advice was to do everything you can to stay healthy. No they didn’t list each and every action required to achieve that health. Anyone presenting with low VitD would have been given advice to get their levels up to normal (apart from the dark forces doctors of course).

                Jo’s thesis and I assume you agree with her, is that VitD has a more central role in this and that it is something that should be promoted while further evidence is being gathered. That is a fair position to take. An unfair position though is to say that 2 months ago when cases were just emerging, that health officials needed to give VitD prominence above its known health benefits or to suggest that they withheld knowledge about covid19.

                52

              • #
                tonyb

                I am not into conspiracy theories, but it is perverse to be advised to wash your hands thoroughly as public health advice, but then prevented from sitting on a bench to soak up the sun, especially in the UK where sun has been in notably short supply over the winter and what with lockdown peoples levels of vitamin D will pre3sumably be at its lowest?

                90

              • #
                A C Osborn

                Tonyb it is even worse than that in the UK, not only are they not advising on any Immunity improvements, they have been deliberately advising against Masks as for non medical people they don’t work.
                Which is utter Bull, they cannot work for one group in massive viral loads and not work for ordinary folk in very light viral loads.
                Ask the South Koreans and Czechians, who use home made masks.
                Added to that they have been saying from day one that gloves are also no good.
                Just go home and wash your hands, without detailing cleaning down everything those infectious hands have touched.
                But no mention of washing that just as infected FACE.
                So you wash your hands touch your face and voila re-infectious hands.
                Anyone else who touches your face, a kiss or whatever is now also infectious.
                Next no mention of protecting your eyes, even though it has been known since Wuhan that you can be infected that way.

                They are totally clueless.
                It is no wonder that under lockdown and social distancing the UK is still seeing 1000s of new cases every day.

                20

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              The vast scare campaign
              That sunlight creates cancer
              has been going full bore for decades
              “Slip Slap Slop” has been the cry.
              And thus NO vitamin D at all
              Public Health ?
              Bugger !

              93

              • #
                JanEarth

                Bill

                That’s called the law of unexpected consequences.

                Be careful though…taking mega doses of Vitamin D is not a good idea if you are not getting regular blood checks…get your blood taken Bill.

                I stopped using sunblock after a visit to Monkey Mia 7 years ago…we were advised to stay out of the water when the Dolphins visited if we had sunblock on. It is toxic to Dolphins and most marine life for that matter. I note another commentator mentioned it kills coral. Also the nano-particles they put in that crap these days cannot be good for you…probably causes cancer.

                Get as much Sun as you want before 10am and after 3pm…between those times limit it to 15 minutes. The magnetic field is weakening so the Ozone hole in the Northern Hemisphere is closing up fast so if you live there it is safe to get A good whack of Sunlight.

                41

              • #
                sophocles

                JanEarth said:

                Be careful though…taking mega doses of Vitamin D is not a good idea if you are not getting regular blood checks…get your blood taken Bill.

                Two questions:
                1. What do you call a `mega dose?’
                2. Where did you get that information from?

                20 people died in 1940 from 1,000,000 IU doses. Now, all we hear about is the supposed dangers of dosing with vit D

                Not taking Vit-D is an even worse idea.

                Pah!

                00

            • #
              peter

              Fig-leaf, it has been known for decades that Vitamin D acts as an anti-viral. What is your problem? Short list please.

              10

        • #
          Geoff Croker

          Its all about the MONEY and WHO gets it!

          80

        • #
          Meglort

          It’s fine to know about the production crew.
          Just don’t scare too many of the sheeple with that knowledge.

          There is no such thing as freedom, just differing degrees of liberty.
          How you use that knowledge to play the game determines how much you have.

          An Australian elitist arranging to buy $300m of tests on behalf of taxpayers.
          Without going through any kind of transparent procurement process.
          From the country that started the problem, using their testing regime.
          Is another data point to collect. What do the tests, test for, really?

          60

        • #
          Slithers

          Are you being cynical in thinking that this is another way to reduce CO2 emissions, by drastic population reduction?

          30

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Hi Jo,

          My interpretation of Just Thinkins comment was that the government is disorganized and doesn’t really care about Us; but IF any wobblies occurred they would eventually be traced back to being beneficial to friends or family of government members.

          10

      • #
        WXcycles

        From what I’ve read about the British police and civil liberties, Victoria’s police are a carbon copy.

        Not if you’re in a crime gang though, only if you’re especially law-abiding, then you’re in all sorts of trouble.

        130

      • #
        peter

        In light of this, why are authorities still chasing people off beaches? People should be encouraged NOT forbidden to sunbake for 15 minutes per day – maybe 5-10 minutes in Queensland, Northern Territory. Taking Vitamin D supplements is good but not as efficiently utilised as UV(B) sunlight on the skin to generate vitamin D. Come June, July, August in southern Australia there is much less sunshine exposure. We could be in for a big 2nd wave of infection of this China Flu come this southern winter.

        But don’t forget zinc. Think zinc, zinc, zinc…. Zn is so important in stopping viruses replicating within cells. As people age their Vitamin D and Zn levels also decrease.

        50

        • #
          sophocles

          peter said:

          Come June, July, August in southern Australia there is much less sunshine exposure. We could be in for a big 2nd wave of infection of this China Flu come this southern winter.

          That’s what I’ve been saying since this pandemic started. I’m still saying it.

          August is the Sickness Season. It’s because everybody’s Vit D 3 is very low. No immunity. Covid will just love it. I’m working on my Vit-d 3 levels. I hope you are too.

          20

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Tony as posted the other day, here is what Dr Malcolm Kendrick
      In Cheshire, says about vitamin D3.
      Essentially, it works to help prevent the CCP’s COVID 19 !
      https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/

      72

    • #
      RickWill

      My son lives in the UK. He normally works from home but walks to day care with his son in the mornings.

      Since lock down, his partner is now working from home and they have decided to work week-about so they can be full time child minders during their week off. Their son has discovered their small back yard and now spends an hour so outside on sunny days.

      Overall since lockdown, they are spending more time outdoors; hopefully a good thing.

      90

    • #
      sophocles

      tonyb:

      When did you last have a cold?
      If you had one this winter, then you’re most likely deficient.
      Salome is right: there is a blood test. It measures the amount of calcifidiol (the active part D 3) in your blood. You test twice a year: end of summer and again in end of winter.

      Ideal level of D 3: = 50 or better ng/ml
      Sort of OK level = 38 +/- ng/ml
      Insufficient level: = <30 ng/ml
      Deficient level: = <20ng/ml
      Do-Something-quick level = <10ng/ml
      (aka the walking dead)

      If you have a test and your results are given as nmol/L, divide them by 2.5 to get ng/ml

      41

      • #
        tonyb

        Sophocles

        Do you think I would dare to sniffle, cough or splutter in public?? I would probably be hauled off somewhere and tested for CV

        Seriously, I have not had a cold this season and flu in the UK has also been very light, presumably because of social distancing and avoiding enclosed spaces. We have up to 40000 deaths a year from flu and there is an argument that wearing masks and social distancing during the winter would drastically reduce that number.

        20

    • #
      John E

      I have been out walking in the U.K. every day since Lockdown.
      The Stay Home Stay Safe mantra is the worst message the scientists have given.

      40

  • #
    Orson

    This is powerful and individually actionable stuff. Something old is now new again. And relevant to fighting back against an invisible threat.

    Of course, all the usual caveats apply. But this is inexpensive and we may have data in the US or elsewhere relevant to checking out these results. Time in of the essence. Get on it, please.

    60

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Given that exercise in any form is also beneficial, and given that Vit D production is stimulated by UV, a 15 minute walk in most weather and latitudes would be enough.
    This could be easily achieved by a walk around the block, or drinking the caffeinated beverage of choice outside.

    But if you want to spend money like a good little consumer on something provided by nature for free, go right ahead

    /clouds are transparent to incoming UV

    1215

    • #
      Boris

      Yes, Peter.

      Outdoors engaged your favourite activity.

      40

    • #
      yarpos

      “The news tonight was full of stories of Remdesivir reducing mortality by a few percent and shortening hospital stays by a day or two”

      Couldnt beleive how dismissive the media was of a claimed reduction in mortality levels from 11.6 to 8%. Just few % it seems, but with 10′s of thousands dying reducing the mortality rate by a quarter is pretty significant. I guess they seek the silver bullet, and other than that its not very click and view worthy.

      91

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Youre forgetting that the powers that be are promote vaccines only – anything else is to be ignored or trashed….so it appears….

        91

    • #
      yarpos

      Well said PF, why cant the masses be just like you eh? Sounds like someone who has never lived in a cold climate. Also quite snarky and superior while making gross assumption that everyone can be just like me. To bad about those who are ill, in nursing homes, disabled, in prison, skin cancer survivors or even just those who work shifts.

      71

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Peter this is true where you live on the North Coast of NSW
      It is NOT true for anyone living in high latitudes,
      ( North or South of the Equator )
      During Winter.

      You should also know that the skin of
      older people gradually becomes less effective
      At turning cholesterol into Vitamin D3.
      And thus older folk need to supplement.
      I certainly do and have done for years.
      And at a level which horrifies Big Pharma
      As I don’t need their patented medicines.

      71

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Bill, UV is not concerned with latitude, but I take your point about older people needing to spend more time acquiring it from the sun, but then time is not really a constraint for older people.

        Now, I looked to where the manufacture of these supplements, and guess what it is China.

        So if you take Vit K you are beholden to China. (better hope for no embargo’s)

        So promoting a supplement made overseas, instead of promoting self sufficiency is part of what got us into this mess

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          UV is not concerned with latitude,

          You’ll need to show me some data that refutes the WHO table below, before I accept that Peter:

          https://www.who.int/uv/intersunprogramme/activities/uv_index/en/index3.html

          Yes. Yes. I know. WHO. How could I possibly rely on that. :-)

          40

          • #
            Meglort

            Table 1 in here is better (for AU data):
            https://wiki.cancer.org.au/skincancerstats/UV_radiation

            All capital cities besides CBR are mostly sea level.
            CBR is about 850m.

            20

            • #
              Sceptical Sam

              The values appear to be higher in your Cancer Council link than in the WHO link.

              I can understand why the CC might choose to overplay the levels – given its primary function ids to reduce sun exposure.

              Similarly, its commentary on Vit D (you need to scroll down and click the link) seems to downplay the link between higher levels and efficacy. Same reason perhaps?

              30

              • #
                Meglort

                Not sure but that is entirely plausible.

                There is another chart with those same values (could be same underlying data set) that is used from a building design PoV for material exposure and is focused on the local tradie market but I only have a hard copy to hand.

                The WHO may have gotten their data from China as per usual?

                20

        • #
          sophocles

          Peter, you say some silly things from time to time. UV is very concerned with latitude. Latitude sets two things:

          1: whether or not UV will reach the ground
          2: what strength it will be at if it can reach the ground.

          Here’s a chart which shows it’s concern for lattitude for each month of the year:
          https://wiki.cancer.org.au/skincancerstats/UV_radiation
          (you’ll have to scroll down a bit to find it) but I figure you know how to do that …)

          70

      • #
        JanEarth

        Bill

        On this one Peter is right… you could easily avoid taking Vit D by getting sunlight, your age does not come into it. By the same token Bill you are not wrong either. I admit taking a pill is easier but if you aren’t getting exercise then taking Vitamin D is of limited use anyway. FTR I am taking a little D pill and getting at least 1 hour of Sun per day… but I am not spending money on mega doses of Vit D when the Sun provides it in abundance for free.

        21

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          your age does not come into it

          Are you trying to tell us that:

          “…the skin of older people gradually becomes less effective
          At turning cholesterol into Vitamin D3.
          And thus older folk need to supplement.”

          …..is incorrect?

          You’ll need to give a reference to support that bit of disinformation.

          10

    • #
      GD

      a 15 minute walk in most weather and latitudes would be enough

      In Victoria, a fifteen minute walk would put you at risk of being pulled up by the ‘police service’ for being too far from home. Given the overcast skies, the likelihood of you absorbing any Vit D3 would be minimal.

      Overall cost to you courtesy Daniel Andrews, $1652. Overall health benefit, zero to nothing.

      81

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        UV is not affected by clouds, park the car at the far end on the carpark, and walk, or not see 5.4.1

        58

        • #
          GD

          Most clouds block some degree of UV rays. The thicker and denser the clouds, the more UV rays are filtered.

          50

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Thanks GD
            I was going to reply to Peter’s malinformation
            But you have doneit.

            PS He’s wrong about latitude also
            At high latitudes sunlight in Winter generates no Vitamin D at all

            70

            • #
              Meglort

              It’s a logarithmic decay though I believe so it has to be pretty high to be zero.

              In winter according to the CC chart the bubble is not much different than Sydney or Perth and I can attest that winter sunburn is not much different if you forget or choose not to cover up.

              This is on the assumed basis that the IR component does not cause sunburn.

              But the cloud thing was a clanger, let alone a thunderhead.

              20

        • #
          sophocles

          And the warnings promoted about UV skin exposure —eek! you’ll get skin cancer panic! panic! panic! — are often wildly hyped.

          That didn’t stop the dinosaurs and they thrived.

          Peter said: So promoting a supplement made overseas, instead of promoting self sufficiency is part of what got us into this mess

          If you’re bothered about that Peter, then don’t take it. We don’t mind, really! We don’t.
          I’ll do you a favour and not mention the D 3′s cognitive improvements …

          40

          • #
            JanEarth

            That didn’t stop the dinosaurs and they thrived.

            That ranks as the most stupidly inane comments I have read here. Earth 75 million years ago was another planet than the one we live on and Dinosaurs were not mammals. Birds don’t get skin cancer on todays Earth.

            Being a contrarian on this site I understand that Peter F may not be popular but try and give the man credit for when he says something sensible.

            40

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              Thanks Jane.

              21

            • #
              sophocles

              Birds don’t get skin cancer on todays Earth

              Prove it.

              Most birds are covered in feathers, so they are shielded/protected against solar extremes; but then, how do you know they don’t? How many dead birds have you autopsied to determine cause of death?

              10

      • #
        JanEarth

        GD

        You are wrong.

        10

    • #
      Slithers

      Out doors while fully dressed for 15 minutes, even in high summer will not lift your Vitamin D3 levels by anywhere near enough to lift them to above ‘Low’ levels! you need lots of exposed skin, I advise visiting a clothes optional beach.

      70

      • #
        sophocles

        Please Slithers! Stop promoting such horrific visions :-D
        The thought of our resident genius at a clothes optional beach really stretches the imagnination …

        30

        • #
          JanEarth

          Sophocles

          The imagination would not be the only thing that is stretched….urghhhh

          10

    • #
      peter

      clouds are transparent to incoming UV

      Wrong again Fitzy! Clouds are partially transparent to UV, NOT totally transparent. I’ve measured it. It decreases intensity with cloud cover.

      90

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        you all seem to misunderstand the relationship between UV and Vit D production.

        But sure, pay the Chinese for the supplement instead.

        26

        • #
          Fred Streeter

          “But sure, pay the Chinese for the supplement instead.”

          Alternatively, they can source them from the US.

          Why, even the UK has Vitamin and Mineral Supplement manufacturers. One pays a little extra, of course, but Queen and Country, and all that.

          (Re: Exposing oneself to UV.

          As an elderly gent., I prefer not to “frighten the horses”, so to speak. Therefore, when I do my thrice weekly couple of hours stint on our 3 allotment veggie plots, I remain fully dressed.

          However, acting on your advice, I have removed my beard so as to expose as much of my exposable skin as possible.)

          40

    • #
      sophocles

      It depends on the clouds and which UV: UVA or UVB.
      Calulate it yourself:
      https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004RG000155

      You can rug up and go for a walk at any time of day in any weather if you like.
      If you’re killed by a lightning strike, don’t tell me because I don’t want to know.

      At solar noon (mid day for sunshine), high thin cloud will reduce incoming UVB by around 5%
      but thick cumulo-numbus starting at about 3000 – 6000 feet will reflect it back to where it comes from allowing only 5% through. That’s not enough.

      Download the paper above and work it out for yourself.
      Or you can try and build a tan – that takes UVB – and if you find it doesn’t work, you’ll know you’ve got something wrong.

      80

    • #
      JanEarth

      Good point Peter…getting it free and naturally also avoids the risk of overdose.

      21

    • #
      Another Ian

      “clouds are transparent to incoming UV”

      So is perspex in sailplanes

      00

  • #
    Boris

    Pity we aren’t hearing vitamin D & C being promoted from political lecterns.

    Cheap, effective in promoting a stronger immune system and for maintaining good health all round.

    130

    • #
      sophocles

      I’m working on vitamin d 3 for my pollies (NZ) but my targets are suffering from selective hearing.
      Too many Guy Fawkes celebrations, I think.

      30

      • #
        Boris

        Sophocles, yes, but I bet they secretly celebrate the treason rather than its thwarting!

        Good luck with that!

        00

        • #
          sophocles

          I don’t think they do. They’ve heard the news out of the 1930s and 1940s about high doses of colecalciferol causing hypercalcaemia, that one person died, and that’s it:

          - vitamin D (n) is dangerous

          - they don’t want to know about about it.

          - it’s use is to be discouraged

          Vitamin D may well be the most important hormone in the human body but they will continue to cling to the 80 – 90 year old misinformation. Yes, it may drive our immune systems, but it’s dangerous! One person died in 1940.

          https://vitamindwiki.com/tiki-index.php?page_id=693

          They are perseverating and causing far more unnecessary deaths by their inaction.

          30

  • #
    Bright Red

    This is good news but I suspect the authorities will still continue with their direst attack on CV19′s strongest point.
    This is a war and when fighting a war you look at your opponents strong and weak points.
    The strongest point of CV19 seems to be its ability to be spread by a host with no symptoms.
    It’s weakest point is that it pretty much only kills the old that are sick with another disease. The vast majority of people get over it with no or little symptoms. The actual data is pretty convincing on this.
    Now hopefully we can add Vitamin D to it’s weaknesses.
    Most of our so called knowledgeable leaders have decided to tackle CV19 head on by taking on its strongest point with draconian lockdowns. This is a win at all/any cost incredibly long shot that in the long run will likely do more damage to us than the virus.
    A smarter move is to quarantine the likely victims denying the virus anyone it can actually hurt while using its strong point against it by allowing it to spread to the healthy where our immune systems will deal with it in short order denying it the ability to spread further.
    So let’s top up our Vitamin D and get on with defeating CV19 rather than running and hiding and hoping it will just go away.

    172

    • #
      sophocles

      Covid -19 is a shrewd virus. It knows and acts with Napoleon’s savoir faire: Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake. .

      10

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Uh oh…..

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-trump-says-covid-19-virus-came-from-wuhan-lab-but-he-wont-reveal-evidence-11981445

    “Coronavirus: Trump says he has seen evidence coronavirus came from Wuhan lab

    “The US president claims the original virus outbreak could have been contained “relatively easily” by China.

    “Donald Trump claims he has seen evidence the novel coronavirus originated in a Wuhan laboratory – but has declined to give specifics.

    “Speaking at a White House news conference, the US president said China either could not stop spread of the virus, or let it spread.

    “Mr Trump said he feels confident the virus came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, adding that US authorities were “looking at it very, very strongly”.

    140

    • #
      JanEarth

      Who cares what Trump says… He is just covering his arse for taking his eye of the ball.

      Taiwan warned everyone in January…The WHO ignored them as did every other Western Government. Trusting the CCP to be honest in its reporting of a serious epidemic is just nuts.

      Bring Taiwan into the UN… this will do more to hurt the CCP than any sham investigation. They also need to be in the WHO. The WHO needs Taiwan as they are really cluey when it comes to the dirty tricks the CCP gets up to.

      34

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Sometimes you get the sense we are viewed as children at school?

      Why do i smell a rat over the heavy abnormal emphasis on a bit of snitch ware on our phones….?

      https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/national-cabinet-coronavirus-restrictions-could-ease-next-week/12205304

      “Nationwide restrictions on movement and business could be eased as soon as next week, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison declaring Australians have “earned an early mark” in the fight against coronavirus.

      “Mr Morrison said National Cabinet would bring forward a key meeting on relaxing Australia’s coronavirus restrictions to next Friday, a week earlier than scheduled.

      “But he again tied the relaxation of restrictions to downloads of the Federal Government’s COVIDSafe app, saying “millions more” Australians needed to sign up.

      “”Australians have earned an early mark through the work that they have done,” he said.

      00

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Wonderful what these apps can do. Mind you this current one rapidly discharges your i-Phone and won’t work on older versions of Samsung phones.

        10

  • #
  • #
    RickWill

    Would be interesting to see the fatality rates across different skin shades in the UK. Apparently there is a severe Vitamin D deficiency in South Asians living in the UK. That is based on research conducted in 2019.

    70

    • #
      sophocles

      It would be constructive to measure calcidiol (colecalciferol in the blood) levels immediately the individual is admitted to hospital. Should be a routine diagnostic tool. It would help prove our point.

      20

  • #
    Bill_W_1984

    I had a level below 20 ng/ml about 18 months ago at my annual physical exam. I had supplements and 1-a-day vitamins but was not taking them regularly. Then for a year I took the 1-a-day which has 1,000 units (more than 100% of the RDA in USA) plus the occasional extra 2,000 gel tablet a few times a week plus salmon or tuna at least once week. I was shocked when I was still on the low end (maybe 30 ng/ml) at this year’s physical a few months ago. So, now I take the 1,000 daily plus an extra 2,000 to 4,000 most days plus the fish I eat. I am heavier than I should be. I just looked up a few articles from 2017-18 that studied this and said the most likely explanation is that people with a lot of fat have the Vitamin D (a fat-soluble vitamin) diluted into their fat tissues so there is less in the blood. I live in New Orleans, so I get a fair amount of sun too, so I have been very surprised by this. I also just today in an email from a health testing company saw that they were saying that 50-60 ng/ml is a good level and quoted a doctor as saying that 90% of those he tested had levels below 32. In the US, they for decades trained doctors that people should not take Vitamin D (or not “too much”) as in rare cases people can overdose on Vit. D (by taking a lot of shark liver oil for example over a long period of time). For Vit. A this is more true. But, with Vit. D at least they are realizing we need more of it and they have raised the RDA several times over the last decade or so. My 1-a days used to have 400 units and then they went to 800, and a few years ago they went to 1,000 per day.

    100

    • #
      Sweet Old Bob

      Been taking 8,000 to 10,000 units per day for decades .
      175 #.

      No flu despite no flu shots AND working in close proximity to hundreds of production workers
      ( food industry ) .

      D for a grade of A !
      :)

      70

  • #
    PeterS

    Here is Australia,

    The NHMS showed that older adults were less likely than younger adults to be Vitamin D deficient, but at the same time Vitamin D supplements were more commonly used among older people. Vitamin D deficiency ranged from 31% of those aged 18–34 years to 15% of those aged 65–74 before increasing again to 20% for those aged 75 years and over.

    Lots more interesting info here: Not sure if there is more recent data.
    https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4364.0.55.006Chapter2002011-12

    50

    • #
      Virtual reality

      The irony of life, to much sun and you could get cancer, to little sun and you could die off the corona virus? Seriously I’m speechless…

      40

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Is that also a symptom? How about infecting Peter F. and allowing a little peace in our small neck of the woods?

        10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      This reflects the indoctrination at at schools that our young folk all go to
      If they are at school & outside it’s compulsory to wear a hat.
      Us older farts grew up in the days of sunbathing
      We know better
      Or were not indoctrinated to fear sunlight.

      00

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    No no no no……absolutely not.

    Just allow for the drift……and….

    This is exactly what I predicted – the corona thing would become the excuse/catalyst to ramp up pervasive State surveillance, just like 9 / 11 did….
    This is very similar to what is used in China.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/new-surveillance-technology-could-beat-coronavirus-but-at-a-cost/12201552

    “A ‘pandemic drone’ and other technology could help limit the spread of coronavirus and ease restrictions sooner, but at what cost?

    “Software being developed at the University of South Australia in conjunction with Canadian drone manufacturer Draganfly could see drones used to monitor the health of people, including
    spotting sneezes and tracking whether they have a fever.

    “It is just one way technology could be used to track and slow the spread of a virus like COVID-19.

    “But experts warn that new surveillance technologies must include privacy safeguards before they are adopted.

    “If you don’t feel comfortable signing up to the Government’s COVIDSafe tracking app, then you probably won’t be happy to hear about the pandemic drone.

    81

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      No need to worry Steve
      It’s almost over & done here in SA
      So it will not be deployed here.

      As for other places
      Well lot’s of folk use well placed ‘lead injections’
      To discourage drones and their owners
      Over private property.

      43

      • #
        MudCrab

        Done in SA? Did it even start?

        41

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Bill: The safest place to be might be in prison. They are clearly getting vitamin D supplements and outdoor exercise and sunshine.

        From: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/04/25/623913/US-state-prisons-inmates-coronavirus-pandemic-
        In four US state prisons, some 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus — 96% without symptoms

        60

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Some of the best science is now coming out of prisons. :)
          From: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX

          “The numbers are the latest evidence to suggest that people who are asymptomatic — contagious but not physically sick — may be driving the spread of the virus, not only in state prisons that house 1.3 million inmates across the country, but also in communities across the globe. The figures also reinforce questions over whether testing of just people suspected of being infected is actually capturing the spread of the virus.

          80

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          A one time test of prisoners in US prisons

          Ummmm ?
          So were these prisoners
          ‘Asymptomatic’
          Or
          “pre-symptomatic”

          I think we have discussed this already ES.
          How could you have missed it ?

          Would you have us going round & round in circles ?

          24

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Bill, in the corona flu prison model, they are clearly getting sunshine, excersise and enough vitamin D which proves the ground breaking Indonesian vitamin D study has got to be right.

            30

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Mind bogglingly low mortality in prisons. On par with a common cold it seems.

              Cloudy and cold here, but that’s not going to stop me from going out in the garden where i can make some vitamin D from what little sunlight there is.

              I want to be one of the 96% :)

              60

              • #

                “Reuters surveyed all 50 state prison systems. Of the 30 that responded, most are only testing inmates who show symptoms,”

                And they didn’t provide age. So unfortunately, we can’t use the study for anything.

                PRobably 80+ age group is unrepresented in prison.

                60

      • #
        JanEarth

        Bill

        You are counting the chickens before they hatch again…we still have the second and third waves to look forward to. I hope they fail to materialise but I would not be jumping up and shouting victory just yet. For all we know Sweden may have done the right thing after all…only time will tell.

        20

    • #
      PeterS

      I agree. The nanny state mentality is slowing morphing into Big Brother, as I expected. It’s also done in a clever way so that more and more people are welcoming it, which I also expected. More to come of course.

      71

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        There was a suggestion of “immunity cards”, apart from it trampling basic human rights, even the WHO says antibodies dont equate to natual immunity….as such, such cards are meaningless….

        https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19

        “Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus.

        “However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

        10

      • #
        R2Dtoo

        I wish to remind all the folks that an epidemic/pandemic was listed alongside climate as a good mechanism for promoting globalization way back in the late 60s. The Club of Rome carried the message. Look up the Club of Rome – it is still very active with offices around the world. The UN provides the political structure for the ongoing movement.

        00

    • #
      PeterS

      Oh, BTW. If people here believe the virus app won’t be used to track people, think again. Some of countries who already use similar (not necessarily the same) software have admitted that’s exactly what they doing. Our COVIDSafe app is designed along the lines of the TraceTogether app from Singapore. They too claim it’s not used to trace people and privacy is preserved. In other words it’s used to trace who to contact in the event of passing too closely to someone else with the virus, not where a person is, in real-time or historically. The truth of course is technologically the software could be used for tracking purposes. They need to record the phone number somewhere to they can contact the person in question, even if that person uses a fake name. The phone can already be traced using other means. Put the two together and of course people can be traced by location in real-time and historically using the new virus tracing system. Promises by governments that’s not their intentions while honest and sincere mean nothing with today’s technology. We all know hackers exists everywhere. Also, the location where the data is stored is vulnerable. Anyway, I’m not suggesting not to use the app. That’s up to each individuals freedom to choose or not. I’m just stating the obvious and being realistic about it all and those who insist it’s safe are truly gullible. Nothing is safe, not even close.

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      • #
        Virtual reality

        We’re already being tracked all the time. When you use google maps for directions you can see all the traffic jams. How do you think they do it? Google is already tracking you all the time. The real problem is when you’re obligated to install tracking software as a result of group or political pressure in the belief it’s for a good cause. That’s the real issue, if you don’t cooperate you will be shunned or Exiled. We can warn, we can suggest a little common sense, but in the end the herd mentality will win the day. After all it saves lives and that’s more important than your privacy!

        20

        • #
          el gordo

          You have a choice not to play and if anyone should ask, just lie and avoid condemnation.

          Do not be afraid, they only want to weed out asymptomatic carriers who have the potential to cause a cluster. I won’t be joining up.

          10

          • #
            Meglort

            Bluetooth exacerbates my thigh chafing so it ruled me out altogether.

            So to remain net neutral I am giving back to the community spreading advice.
            Kind of like a carbon scam credit but for CCP virus.

            10

      • #
        JanEarth

        Peter s

        I just don’t get you. You are being tracked every time you switch your device on and access the net. depending on what OS you use Google, Microsoft or Apple have a complete profile of you stored on their databanks. They know who your friends are, what your hobbies are, where you eat, what you eat, where you go on vacation… in short everything. They know you better than you know yourself and they will turn that over to the government the minute they are asked. Also even if you don’t use Facebook the nasty spy app is shadowing you and have also built up a nice profile on you. Your device is full of their indestructible cookies…you can’t even flush them out.

        We all sold our souls to the devil decades ago. Open your eyes. The best you can do is get rid of your devices and never come here again… but then you can’t do that can you ! Even then they still have those profiles.

        Admit it you are screwed… we all are. I am glad my chances of getting to the 22nd century are nil.

        20

        • #
          Bill Burrows

          Spot on Jan. Osama bin Ladin could attest to Spooks’ tracking abilities if he was here to tell the tale. And of course we all use Google Earth or similar platforms to check out the world around us nowadays . Nevertheless I was gobsmacked when seeking to buy over the Internet a new pool cover for my pool a day or so ago – the sellers advice was that not to worry if I didn’t have the dimensions/shape of the pool to hand as they would get it from aerial imagery available for my street!

          20

        • #
          Bill Burrows

          [Duplicate]

          10

    • #
      Another Ian

      A cynic might suggest that SA already has a surfeit of drones?

      31

  • #
    Gary

    Cod liver oil is a good source of vitamin A and D which work together, l have two cod liver oil capsules and a spoonful of butter (the dark yellow spring butter is best)every morning.
    The Western A Price foundation website is a good place to find information on traditional diets. Dr Price traveled world in the nineteenth thirties and studied the diet of isolated cultures and wrote a brilliant book on what he found called “Nutrition and Physical Degeneration “

    62

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      I think it curious that with the USA faced by this major pandemic
      The Weston Price Foundation has nothing at all on it’s website
      About this CCP virus or Covid 19 disease..
      Other interesting stuff but zip on the pandemic…
      Take a look :
      https://www.westonaprice.org/journal-winter-2019-dietary-support-for-the-alcoholic/

      66

      • #
        Gary

        Are you inferring that I maybe an alcoholic, that’s funny Bill, take a closer look at the website, you will find articles on Covid 19 and while your at it checkout Jon Rappaport on his website nomorefakenews.com that will really make your blood boil

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        • #
          Bill In Oz

          I did Gary
          I searched for it as well
          I got this in the search of their website:

          “Search Results for: Covid19
          Sorry, no content matched your criteria.”

          Disappointing.
          Maybe you can find something and put the link here ?

          20

          • #
            Gary

            It’s right on top of there topics on there home page.
            http://www.westonaprice.org/coronavirus/

            00

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Ahh thanks for that Gary
              I went & had . a look at what Sally Fallon has to say :
              “A few facts about coronavirus should help prevent panic. Coronavirus has been around a long time. Both SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) are caused by a type of coronavirus. Like all viral outbreaks, they have their day and then taper off—as the number of cases already seems to be dwindling in China.

              The number of deaths from coronavirus is low compared with the number of daily deaths from flu and pneumonia—and most of these occur in nursing homes and among the elderly. To date, no child has died of coronavirus.”
              She then does a list comparing deaths from all diseases..
              https://nourishingtraditions.com/how-to-protect-yourself-from-coronavirus-or-any-virus/

              And makes the classic booboo of comparing Corona 19 Virus deaths world wide to April ( ?) with the annual death rate for diseases which have been common for a long time….

              No thanks..
              I think Jo has a far better & solid understanding than Sally Fallon

              Ummmm ?
              She has joined the benighted American Society of Coronavirus Dingbats….

              20

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Umm, that article was written by Sally Fallon March 12th…
                How embaressing to have FATE spit in your face so conclusively
                With 63,000 Americans dead
                As of today the first of May.

                20

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      I recall some years ago reading that aspirin was once a common part of the diet, available in a plant that was widely consumed. This was before people settled down and began farming.

      A little bit of aspirin now may be just providing something our bodies were accustomed to until until the Hunter gatherer lifestyle ended.

      KK

      21

      • #
        PeterS

        For decades, many doctors recommend that those with a higher than normal risk of heart attack or stroke to take low dosages of Aspirin available in special tablets, such as Astrix®.

        50

        • #

          Aspirin is Acetyl Salicylic acid. It is indeed in many vegetables and fruits and it’s possible to eat a significant amount comparable to low dose aspirin, but very hard to assess. There is speculation that it be described as a vitamin almost for many people. It is higher in less ripe fruit and skins. Low in bananas/ pears / cabbage, white potato, onions, garlic peas and carrots. But higher in nearly everything else. (It’s hard to avoid eating it if you eat fruit and vege.)

          A small percentage of the population is sensitive to it. They may produce too many inflammatory leucotrienes, or they can’t clear it from the liver fast so it builds up over a few days. Salicylates can lead to a whole lot of problems. See low salicylate diets for people with asthma excsma, allergies, Irritable bowel syndrome, ADHD and a string of other things.

          Quite possibly the studies of people taking low dose aspirin didn’t test or sort their subject for salicylate sensitivity, so the bad reactions of salicylates in some dilute the useful reactions for others, and the net result is unimpressive.

          Or it may be that fruit and vege have scores of other useful compounds and that low dose aspirin is a very poor mimic of just eating fruit and vege.

          40

          • #
            sophocles

            willow bark
            – to chew
            – to make tea from

            Soluble aspirin works as a very effective analgesic for me. I’m one of the 35% of males for whom paracetamol doesn’t work … so I don’t bother with that crap.

            10

        • #
          JanEarth

          Peter S

          Aspirins risks outweigh the benefits which are miniscule. Don’t bother with that crap.

          02

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Nobody should ear crap.
            Very unhealthy.

            KK dug

            00

          • #
            Fred Streeter

            Could you provide links to some of the many scientific studies that have proven Aspirin to be “crap”, please?

            (Or is yours a Sally Fallon Morell assessment of Aspirin?)

            You do realize that your doctor will know whether Aspirin is contraindicated for you, thereby avoiding the risks and reaping its demonstrable benefits?

            Failing that, a qualified pharmacist can advise you to some extent, but, not having access to your medical record, would have to rely upon your own assessment of your health.

            20

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Price pioneered K2 too.

      30

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      An interesting read outlines the experience of an ethnic group who left their seafood diet behind and adopted western style foods.

      Try; The Queen of Fats.
      About the ratio of hdl and ldl.

      21

  • #
    MudCrab

    So…

    There is an argument that while locking down the boarders has been sound, demanding that people remain in their homes has possibly made things worse?

    Still, at least they saved the NHS.

    42

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Mudcrab, Take that up with Boris in the UK
      We’ve been allowed out exersizing
      The entire time the SA lockdown
      No more that two together at a time
      For as long as we want.
      :-)

      10

  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Excellent work by ren in the previous thread…just had to repost it only in part here.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/death-tolls-could-be-60-higher-than-official-numbers-all-cause-mortality-is-at-record-highs/#comment-2321143

    #58
    “ren
    May 1, 2020 at 4:41 am

    “It is not the virus that causes fibrosis of the lungs, heart and kidneys, but an excess of the hormone angiotensin II, which results from the inactivation of the ACE2 enzyme, to which Cov-2 attaches. Therefore, the one who counts only on his immunity is a fool.
    The excretion into the bloodstream of renin from the renal juxtaglomerular cells initiates the activation of the enzyme-hormonal cascade known as the RAA system (renin-angiotensin-aldosterone). As a result of several related mechanisms, there is an increase in blood pressure. Due to the huge range of action of angiotensin II (Ang-2), the main effector of the RAA system, irregularities in its functioning cause numerous consequences. Excessive activation of the system is accompanied by chronic inflammation, because Ang-2 stimulates pro-inflammatory mediators. Degenerative and atherosclerotic processes are started. Imbalance of the RAA system is associated with the most common civilization diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases or diabetes, as well as kidney diseases, preeclampsia, osteoporosis and even neurodegenerative diseases. The quantitative determination of angiotensin II in the blood is useful in the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. These are the exact symptoms in Covid-19. It is perfectly logical when we realize that the virus neutralizes the action of the ACE2 enzyme, which inhibits the activity of angiotensin 2, by stimulating the antagonist of this hormone, i.e. angiotensin (1-7), which has the opposite effect. This regulation of the body is visibly disturbed in Covid-19 disease. Drugs should go towards reducing the effect of angiotensin 2, which wreaks havoc on the patient’s body.
    Angiotensin II
    Angiotensin II is a vasoconstricting peptide hormone generated via proteolytic cleavage of angiotensin I by the angiotensin-converting enzyme in endothelial cells. The renin-angiotensin system is implicated in pathologic fibrosis in the heart, liver, lung, and kidneys.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/angiotensin-ii
    I know that you can get angiotensin (1-7) as a medicine. In this way, you can bypass ACE2 to which the virus attaches.

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    • #
      greggg

      The effects of vitamin D on the renin-angiotensin system:
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3999581/
      ‘Compared with vitamin D-sufficient individuals, those with vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency had greater plasma angiotensin II levels’

      40

    • #
      ren

      The ACE enzyme converts angiotensin I into angiotensin II, so you should think about drugs that inhibit ACE activity.
      Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors
      ACE inhibitors are commonly prescribed to treat high blood pressure, heart problems and other conditions. Find out how they work and their potential side effects.

      By Mayo Clinic Staff
      Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors help relax your veins and arteries to lower your blood pressure. ACE inhibitors prevent an enzyme in your body from producing angiotensin II, a substance that narrows your blood vessels. This narrowing can cause high blood pressure and force your heart to work harder. Angiotensin II also releases hormones that raise your blood pressure.
      https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/high-blood-pressure/in-depth/ace-inhibitors/art-20047480

      20

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        So the synthesis of nitric oxide, a vasodilator, is also affected in this scenario?

        00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          Never mind…more than enough to study. Thanks.

          00

        • #
          ren

          You started a very interesting topic. It is worth thinking about it. Indeed, nitric oxide has the opposite effect to angiotensin II.

          10

        • #
          ren

          You started a very interesting topic. It is worth thinking about it. Indeed, nitric oxide has the opposite effect to angiotensin II. All these mechanisms should be well known by specialists in hypertension.

          30

  • #
    dadgervais

    PTL. We return to science.

    21

  • #
    thingadonta

    People who don’t produce enough vitamin D are much more likely to have other comorbidities.

    In other words, low vitamin D is often just an indicator of general poor health, the reason they don’t produce enough vitamin D is also that they aren’t healthy in other ways. Giving them vitamin D would help, but it won’t fix most of the other problems, and so they would likely still die at higher rates even with more vitamin D.

    63

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Reversing the logic Thingadonta ?
      Not good science
      I’m sceptical mate !

      64

      • #
        thingadonta

        I didn’t say vitamin D wouldn’t help (it would), in any medical study one has to factor in and control for other factors, to get an accurate assessment. eg if one has low vitamin D and a smoker, versus not.

        The study does indeed factor in other things, but I wonder just how far it goes, eg many people in Indonesia are exposed to smoke since they are a very young age and in crowded conditions, with indoor smoke from home fires in villages, and many also smoke heavily, also many cities have quite poor air pollution. All this needs to be accounted for, along with the other health issues, and their vitamin D levels.

        50

  • #
    William Astley

    This chart was produced from research that was funded by a women’s grass root health movement which I support. In the US there is almost no research money available for issues that could eliminate for profit medicines. The reason this research was done was because of this women’s group.
    Correcting the herd’s Vitamin D deficiency looks as if it will reduce public healthcare costs by roughly 50%.

    Politics is everywhere.

    https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf

    ‘Vitamin’ D is a proteohormone that our body makes in sunlight and that is used in 200 different microbiological processes in our body.

    Roughly 80% of our ‘Vitamin’ D came from sunlight.

    So, conceptually it makes tons of sense, that we get a long list of diseases when ‘Vitamin’ D is reduced in our bodies by a factor of 7 from optimum because …

    …We moved indoors and put clothes on. To make matters worse, we invited dark skin people over from low latitude countries to come live with us.

    The current RDA for Vitamin D in Canada and the US is 600 UI/day. No comment about dark or white skin people or notes about Canada being so far north and missing sufficient UV to even make the vitamin D for six months of the year…

    Based on the research, increasing the ‘Vitamin’ D RDA to 4000 UI/day and some calcium would reduce breast cancer incidences by 65%, reduce the incidence of multiple sclerosis 64%, reduction of around 30% in type 2 diabetes, a 20% reduction in depression, elimination of type 1 diabetes, people loss 20 to 40 pounds, people’s posture and balance improves, less falls, and so on….

    The multiple sclerosis finding makes tons of sense. Canadians have twice the incidence of that disease. The treatment costs for my niece are more than 30,000/year. She is lucky she can still walk and work.

    And we are all Magnesium deficient, so almost all calcium supplement pills include magnesium, and we are also short on Zinc. Zinc deficient groups such as Vegetarians and the elderly have a higher death rate for covid. I

    333mg Calcium, 167 mg Magnesium, and 17 mg per day (comes in a single pill) Zinc plus Vitamin D 4000 UI is optimum for the herd in that is conservatively low, but still high enough to get very, very good results.

    https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/McDonnell-2018-breast-cancer-GRH.pdf

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrU1yrmNIqc

    Results of a Prostate Cancer/Vitamin D Trial: Effectiveness Safety Recommendations

    Bruce H Hollis (Hollis is the US lead researcher who controls all higher level Vitamin D research. This talk includes an overview of the initial resistance.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAAlMYWtF_s&t=187s

    Sunlight and Your Health: An EnLIGHTening Perspective

    80

  • #
    Ross

    There’s also a link to Zinc as well as Vitamin D in respiratory health issues. You can buy various pharmaceutical products claiming immune boost off the shelf now. They commonly contain Vitamin D and Zinc. One of the doctors who did a video blog treating his COVID suffering patients (pre – hospital) in California immediately started treating his patients with Hydroxychoroquinoline (HCQ) +Azithromycin+VitC+VitD+Zn. Another doctor thought the HCQ worked as a carrier for Zinc which targeted the virus. All of them were confident in the treatment success, mainly because it bought time and kept their patients off ventilators. In their opinion ventilators were a very bad outcome.

    80

  • #
    James West

    It would be great if there’s something there, but looking at the paper isn’t particularly convincing. I might have missed it, but there doesn’t seem to be access to any raw data, just the three tables, which have already categorized things, in some cases in a pretty opaque manner.
    The first thing that sticks out for me is the general “comorbidities” variable. Which specific comorbidities were taken into account here? Why not leave them broken out separately so we can see them (again I might have missed it, if so I’d be grateful for guidance)?
    If they have only taken only some of the relevant ones, then the effect of missing ones, especially if they are correlated to vitamin D deficiency e.g. obesity, some of the allergy / immune system over-reaction diseases (Crohn’s disease), will probably end up attributed to vitamin D, regardless of which way the causality runs.
    Another thing is the age chosen to split the age category, 50 years. That’s before the age specific effect of CCP-19 really kicks in, and presumably will degrade the degree to which they have really controlled for age by smearing the still largely “young” and healthy 50 – 65 year olds into the old category.
    Like I said, nice if it’s true, but for the moment I think that, while it’s more convincing than the recent “smoking saves” study, there’s probably a lot less there than meets the eye.

    31

  • #
    Peter C

    Chemical Weapons.

    In the Spectator this week Matt Ridley wrote an article reviewing some possible therapies against Covid19.
    http://www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/race-to-cure-covid/

    The candidates are:
    Vaccines,
    Protease inhibitors,
    Antoviral drugs (Remdesivir, Favipavir)
    Monoclonal antibodies
    Hydroxychloroquine +/ zinc and azithromycin.

    So hydroxychloroquine is still in the race and is likely being used clinically quite a lot. Trials should start reporting in the next month or so.

    71

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      And: Convalescent blood plasma…but there is very little money in it.

      20

      • #
        Slithers

        and no money in promoting higher Vitamin D levels. Modern city dwellers are almost certain to have low levels hence the higher mortality rates in younger city people.

        50

  • #

    Here’s is something to trigger those who call for lockdown. It’s not evidence based. Sweden decided to use an evidence based strategy.
    https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

    42

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Excellent to get diversity of expert opinion from real experts.

      31

    • #
      RickWill

      To say there is no evidence that social distancing (quarantine) works throws out millennnia of human experience. Johan Giesecke goes into my list as another dingbat, 1st order.

      quarantine meaning

      The practice of quarantine, as we know it, began during the 14th century in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics. Ships arriving in Venice from infected ports were required to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing. This practice, called quarantine, was derived from the Italian words quaranta giorni which mean 40 days.

      Leper colonies existed in the middle ages to prevent the spread of leprosy.

      Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are all proof that quarantine works for CV19.

      Sweden will regret listening to this dingbat and his protege.

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      • #
        David

        Speaking of dingbats, as you do often, did you listen to what he said? Let me help you understand by asking you a question: do you need the Government to tell you to practice good hygiene, wash your hands, keep your distance because you are unable to figure that out for yourself?

        22

        • #
          RickWill

          did you listen to what he said?

          I assessed he was a 1st class dingbat as soon as he stated that quarantine does not work. Beyond that there was no point listening.

          do you need the Government to tell you to practice good hygiene, wash your hands, keep your distance because you are unable to figure that out for yourself?

          I do not have a problem practising good hygeinedoing. Keeping distance is beyond my control. If there were no “X” on the floor to mark where you should stand in supermarket queues I am certain there would be arguments and it would be difficult to keep distances without that reference provided. If I was in a bar in Sweden I would know how to keep my distance but the drunken clown sitting nearby may not. The Swedish government has closed some bars because they were overcrowded on weekends.

          It is well known that alcohol is a social lubricant and people get much less particular about keeping distances once they get a few under their belt. That is what is being experienced in Sweden. The assessed cases in Sweden has a huge bias to Thursday and Friday, 12 days after the weekend a fortnight earlier. Very difficult for a parent to keep their 20 something locked up when all their friends are out mixing in the bars. The kids think they are bullet proof and constantly being told it is an old person disease. They go out, get infected, are presymptomatic for up to 6 days and contageous for at least two of those days when they pass it onto parents and maybe grandparents and siblings.

          The case load in Sweden continues to accelerate. The death rate in Sweden continues to accelerate. The government will eventually need to sack the dingbats setting the CV19 policy and force social distancing. All they are proving is that the population is not as sensible as they need to be.

          40

      • #
        joseph

        Is the definition of social distancing really (quarantine)?

        10

        • #
          RickWill

          Social distancing, self-isolating, stay-at-home order – all mean quarantine. Whatever it is termed, it is intended to prevent the spread of infectious disease bu avoiding contact with others.

          20

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        There are a some dedicated
        Dingbats here
        As well Rick.
        :-(

        00

    • #

      David it all depends on how you define “evidence based”. It’s an easy flag to wave that either side of this debate can wave either way.

      There’s 2000 years of evidence that quarantine works. There’s plenty of modern evidence too, but if you want evidence of what happens to modern high density apartment blocks or cruise ships with a new global pandemic of coronaviruses, or phone tracking compared with mask use, then of course, nothing is good enough to call evidence. Obviously, it’s a new situation. That there is “no evidence” of these specific factors is the most trite and meaningless observation.

      A lot of people are using the latter “no evidence” to erroneously declare quarantines don’t work.

      30

  • #
    DonS

    Hi Jo

    Terrific! Another “study” shows that if you have pre existing medical conditions or poor nutrition you are more likely to die from the Wuhan 19 virus. Is this really what science has come to? Statements of the bloody obvious. Old age, heart disease, diabetes etc. will make you vulnerable to every bug that is going around.

    So a tiny, un replicated, un-validated study from a 3rd world Islamic nation is news worthy of posting on the blog? Really Jo, as a fellow nit wit of mine in the USA often says “come on maaan”. Is there really nothing more interesting going on in the world of science?

    47

    • #

      Don, if you read the post I did three weeks ago on Vitamin D you’ll find scores of references and several mechanisms, and studies that already show Vit D supplements (unlike nearly every other supplement) reduces all-cause-mortality.

      http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/perhaps-solve-the-other-pandemic-vitamin-d-deficiency-to-help-beat-coronavirus/

      Symptoms of low Vitamin D include irritability and a sour mood.

      Vit D deficiency may be associated with Depression.

      You might want to try some.

      150

    • #
      sophocles

      DonS:

      The paper Jo posted has some really scary figures in it. It details cause and effect quite well if you read some of the references

      I would advise you to sit up, read it and smell the coffee.

      If you can’t smell any coffee then it’s too late for you: loss of your sense of smell is a symptom of Covid-19 infection.

      And low Vitamin D could be fatal …

      60

    • #
      JanEarth

      Don S

      Showing your true colours mate… a very unattractive look. Science is Science no matter where it is done or by whom and religion does n0ot come into it.

      41

    • #
      JanEarth

      Don S

      Showing your true colours mate… a very unattractive look. Science is Science no matter where it is done or by whom and religion does not come into it.

      12

  • #
    Bryan Roberts

    It is increasingly apparent that the government panicked, and blundered badly by harassing the general public, and failing to protect the population that was already known to be at risk. Most of the deaths of the elderly can be laid at the government’s door.

    32

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      The government failed us by closing the borders too late
      To Iran, Italy and the USA etc.

      It also naively thought that self isolating returning travellers would work 100%.

      But eventually it stopped all entries by non Australians
      And enforced 2 weeks quarantine for all Aussies returning.

      That worked !

      61

      • #
        Bryan Roberts

        Exactly how did that protect the elderly?

        23

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          It stopped further introduction of the CCP virus into Australia.
          The various state based lock downs stopped further spread within Australia.
          And ALL the aged care centers in Australia have been in lock down with no visitors allowed at all
          That STOPPED the CCP virus getting into almost all the aged care centers.
          Yes there are 3-4 exceptions in NSW & Vic & Tas.
          But those were isolated exceptions where the disease was introduced by infected workers.

          10

          • #
            Bryan Roberts

            “ALL the aged care centers in Australia have been in lock down with no visitors allowed at all”

            Well, it didn’t work, did it? Thirteen people dead, at least. How difficult would it have been to check the health status of the workers, rather than throwing people off Bondi beach? How many lives did that save?

            31

            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Bryan, boyo your manner is rude.
              You seem to hold me responsible for those 13 deaths.

              I am not.
              Jo was pushing for the borders to be closed in February.
              So was I boyo.

              But our beloved leaders decided not to do so
              To try and ‘save the economy’.
              It was I who coined the tag ‘SloMo’ for our PM.
              Eventually in mid March- about 4 weeks late
              They closed the borders.
              So if you want to express your concern or anger
              About this go talk SloMo.

              Now you seem concerned about aged care centers.
              Well since February, SO HAVE I.
              my lady works in an aged care center.
              She has faced the prospect of being infected
              ( And bringing it home to me ! )

              Why ?
              Because aged care center employees were NOT tested as a priority
              Because aged care center residents were NOT tested as a priority
              Because visitors to aged care centers were NOT tested. as a priority
              Because of lack of PPE in aged care centers.
              ( My lady was told to NOT wear a mask while at work ! )

              No wonder managements of the aged care centers across Australia
              Universally put a lock down on visitors
              Which generated many many complaints
              But almost certainly saved lives.
              And stopped my lady from being infected
              With this bloody CCP virus as well.

              These things if done would perhaps have prevented
              The thirteen deaths.

              So Bryan perhaps you need to rethink your own opinions here.
              And go direct your anger at those who ‘managed’ this situation.

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                Bill In Oz

                And I did not mention the ‘exciting’ time we had
                When a woman fresh off a cruise boat
                The Ruby Princess ?
                Rushed in to see her mum
                Despite attempts to stop her…
                The following 10 days or so were
                Much too exciting !
                Thank you !

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              robert rosicka

              Bryan if only you knew just how bad it really is in these places , what Bill says is right on the money .
              No testing for either resident or workers , lockdown for residents is horrendous and those poor residents that have to have a treatment in hospital or leave the facility no matter for what are quarantined for 14 days .
              How about having dialysis three times a week which leaves you quarantined in an already quarantined facility?
              Most of these places spend just a few dollars each day on meals for each resident do you think that they spend up on PPE when there’s a profit to be made ?

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            Bryan Roberts

            How many brains does it take to figure out that if you are going to ban random access by strangers, it might pay to check the workers. In other areas, it’s called a security clearance. But no. People sunbathing in parks are far more dangerous.

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      Sceptical Sam

      the government

      Which government?

      Commonwealth?

      States?

      Territories?

      I just love these generalizations. Be specific man. Name the names.

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    el gordo

    Do we know if Covid-19 has antigenic drift, like the flu?

    ‘There are four influenza strains that circulate in the human population: A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and two B variants. These viruses spread seasonally each year because of a phenomenon known as antigenic drift: They evolve just enough to evade human immune systems, but not enough to develop into completely new versions of the virus.’

    Uni Chicago Medecine

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    WXcycles

    Top 25 most infected countries sorted by new cases:

    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
    30,829 … USA … 878,843 … 3.5 … 5.83
    7,099 … Russia … 93,806 … 7.6 … 1.01
    6,032 … UK … 144,138 … 4.2 … 15.63
    6,019 … Brazil … 43,544 … 13.8 … 6.91
    3,045 … Peru … 25,520 … 11.9 … 2.84
    2,740 … Spain … 77,112 … 3.6 … 10.24
    2,615 … Turkey … 68,144 … 3.8 … 2.64
    1,872 … Italy … 101,551 … 1.8 … 13.61
    1,801 … India … 24,641 … 7.3 … 3.31
    1,639 … Canada … 28,629 … 5.7 … 5.98
    1,470 … Germany … 32,886 … 4.5 … 4.06
    1,351 … Saudi Arabia … 19,428 … 7.0 … 0.71
    983 … Iran … 13,509 … 7.3 … 6.37
    948 … Pakistan … 12,007 … 7.9 … 2.19
    846 … Belarus … 11,552 … 7.3 … 0.63
    845 … Qatar … 12,027 … 7.0 … 0.07
    790 … Sweden … 17,501 … 4.5 … 12.26
    758 … France … 93,326 … 0.8 … 14.58
    660 … Belgium … 29,349 … 2.2 … 15.65
    552 … UAE … 9,947 … 5.5 … 0.84
    540 … Portugal … 22,537 … 2.4 … 3.95
    528 … Singapore … 14,910 … 3.5 … 0.09
    514 … Netherlands … 34,271 … 1.5 … 12.20
    259 … Ecuador … 22,476 … 1.2 … 3.61
    193 … Japan … 11,198 … 1.7 … 3.05
    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died

    New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
    8 … Australia … 947 … 0.8 … 1.36

    Recoveries have slowed all week, the more ill tail cases are going to hang on longer before cases close.

    Interestingly the “Resolved Cases” category was renamed “Closed Cases” overnight on worldometer, to make perfectly clear what these are. The category otherwise remains unchanged. But certain people still seem to have no understanding of what these “closed cases” are. It’s this, and only this.

    Every known COVID-19 case that closes either Recovers, or Dies.

    There are no other relevant considerations or qualifications with this category. There’s no complication to its definition. It does not refer to hospital cases, it has nothing to do with hospitals, it’s just the final result when any known case comes to its conclusion. It could happen at home and it is the same result.

    A couple of people have tried to falsely claim it refers to hospital case discharges. This is course not true, it has zero to do with proximity to a hospital when you either recover or die. But if you are in a hospital a case closure will result in discharge or cremation. It’s only what the result of a known case was when it ended. It does not matter if they were at home, or walking down the street to the shops. It does not matter if they were standing on their head naked, upon a unicycle on a cable strung across Niagara Falls whilst playing a wailing feedback saturated Jimi Hendrix rendition of “Tip-Toes Through The Tulips” with a left-handed strung bango playing through a 300 foot high Marshall stack, with the banjo behind their head using their teeth as a plectrum … when the case closed.

    That’s also irrelevant to the result which is just the result of a known COVID–19 case when it ended.

    Their location during any part of their illness is entirely irrelevant to the logged outcome. All cases are logged, none get excluded. It’s dishonest to endlessly try to create new excuses to ignore and downplay the data or to repeatedly misrepresented the situation to discount or ignore it even as ignorantly disparage it, not even knowing what the category represents.

    The global closed-case data was revised overnight and the result was the US deaths of the closed-cases fell from 32% to 29% (instead of 1 in 3 die, it’s now 3 in 10 closed cases die in the USA).
    Some graphs of what’s occurring with time, first the worst case that I know of is Belgium, then a graph of the global scale closed cases plot for the entire global dataset death rate due to COVID-19 so everyone knows what proportion of cases are actually dying globally and how many can die due to this disease. It is not some subset of total known cases, these closed-cases as shown within the graphs are always from 100% of known active COVID-19 cases which have ended, and for which there is an alive or dead result.

    Belgium = 40%
    https://i.ibb.co/6rXcHFM/Belgium-Death-Rate-3th-April-2020.png

    Global = 18.37%
    https://i.ibb.co/xmBR9ZG/Global-Death-Rate-30th-April-2020.png

    Philosophy = Reasonable Skepticism
    https://i.ibb.co/4KtjXmt/Unreasonable-skepticism-and-consensus-are-both-nuttier-than-a-scorched-peanut-bar.png

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    ren

    When the blood vessels in the lungs become narrow as a result of ACE2 inactivation, the antibodies have difficulty accessing the alveoli.

    Susan M. Poutanen, in Principles and Practice of Pediatric Infectious Diseases (Fifth Edition), 2018

    Peak viral loads in nasopharyngeal specimens are detected during the second week of symptoms.60,73 A rise in SARS CoV–specific antibodies typically is seen at the same time. Increasing antibody titers and symptomatic improvement during the second and third week are associated with a decrease in SARS CoV viral loads.60,76 Paradoxically, despite a fall in viral load and a rise in SARS-specific antibodies, clinical deterioration is observed in some patients.60 The host immune responses likely contribute to clinical deterioration in these patients. Elevated levels of IFNγ, inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1 (IL-1), IL-6, and IL-12; neutrophil chemokine IL-8; monocyte chemoattractant protein 1; and IFNγ-inducible protein-10 have been detected, with levels of IL-6 correlating with severity of disease.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-2

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      ren

      The virus that inactivates the ACE2 enzyme contributes to the growth of angitensin II, which is responsible for the increase of pro-inflammatory factors in the body. The ACE2 enzyme reduces angiotensin II to angiotensin (1-7), which has the opposite effect to angitensin II.
      Angiotensin II activates circulating cells, and participates in their adhesion to the activated endothelium and subsequent transmigration through the synthesis of adhesion molecules, chemokines and cytokines. Among the intracellular signals involved in angiotensin II-induced inflammation, the production of reactive oxygen species and the activation of nuclear factor-kappaB are the best known.
      The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and its therapeutic targets.
      Mirabito Colafella KM1, Bovée DM2, Danser AHJ3.
      Author information
      Abstract
      The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) plays a pivotal role in the regulation of blood pressure and body fluid homeostasis and is a mainstay for the treatment of cardiovascular and renal diseases. Angiotensin II and aldosterone are the two most powerful biologically active products of the RAAS, inducing all of the classical actions of the RAAS including vasoconstriction, sodium retention, tissue remodeling and pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic effects. In recent years, new components of the RAAS have been discovered beyond the classical pathway that have led to the identification of depressor or so-called protective RAAS pathways and the development of novel therapies targeting this system. Moreover, dual inhibitors which block the RAAS and other systems involved in the regulation of blood pressure or targeting upstream of angiotensin II by selectively deleting liver-derived angiotensinogen, the precursor to all angiotensins, may provide superior treatment for cardiovascular and renal diseases and revolutionize RAAS-targeting therapy.
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-2

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        ren

        The main treatment should be a reduction of angitensin II, because it is the main proinflammatory factor in Covid-19 disease. Therefore, deterioration of the patient’s condition often occurs after 10 days, despite the production of antibodies.

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          ren

          Sorry.
          The main treatment should be a reduction of angiotensin II, because it is the main proinflammatory factor in Covid-19 disease. Therefore, deterioration of the patient’s condition often occurs after 10 days, despite the production of antibodies.

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          • #

            Vitamin D has a far wider effect than just there. There are many cytokines, and pro inflammatory factors that it affects as well (see my original post) as small peptide anti-viral molecules we can attribute to D intake as well.

            D is multifactorial — affecting 200+ genes. The poor docs throwing one drug at a time at a body will fail to make up for a deficiency of Vitamin D.

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      Environment Skeptic

      @ ren
      May 1, 2020 at 4:07 pm
      Also, LPS (lipopolysacharides) upregulates ACE2 giving the virus a better opportunity to take hold.
      LPS can be a big problem in people both young and old with leaky gut.

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        Environment Skeptic

        For example, postprandial LPS gets into the bloodstream via the leaky gut which is associated with an upregulation of ACE2.

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      Environment Skeptic

      Big thanks for bringing this to our attention again.

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        Environment Skeptic

        *this and more to our attention…(My secret identity is actually ‘Typo man’)
        I guess “this” is a vista of the medicine at a biological and molecular level never witnessed before…the last ten years circa especially.

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    sophocles

    Ah, found a paper I meant to post. Nearly did n’t so here it is:

    “Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths” [ 2020 ] Grant et al
    [ https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/4/988/htm ]

    It supports the paper Jo posted. In section 4.2, the authors state:

    The data reviewed here supports the role of higher 25(OH)D concentrations in reducing risk of infection and death from ARTIs, including those from influenza, CoV, and pneumonia. The peak season for ARTIs is generally when 25(OH)D concentrations are lowest. Thus, vitamin D3 supplementation should be started or increased several months before winter to raise 25(OH)D concentrations to the range necessary to prevent ARTIs. Studies reviewed here generally reported that 25(OH)D concentrations of 20–30 ng/mL reduced the risk of ARTIs [134]. One reason for that result may be that the studies included few participants with higher 25(OH)D concentrations. However, one observational study reported that 38 ng/mL was the appropriate concentration to reduce the risk of CAP [57]. Although the degree of protection generally increases as 25(OH)D concentration increases, the optimal range appears to be in the range of 40–60 ng/mL (100–150 nmol/l). To achieve those levels, approximately half the population could take at least 2000–5000 IU/d of vitamin D3 [135]. Various loading doses have been studied for achieving a 25(OH)D concentration of 30 ng/mL. For example, one study used a weekly or fortnightly dose totaling 100,000–200,000 IU over 8 weeks (1800 or 3600 IU/d) [136]. However, to achieve 40–60 ng/mL would take higher loading doses. A trial involving Canadian breast cancer patients with bone metastases treated with bisphosphonates but without comorbid conditions reported that doses of 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D3 over a four-month period showed no adverse effects, but did unmask two cases of primary hyperparathyroidism [137]. A study involving 33 participants, including seven taking 4000 IU/d of vitamin D3 and six who took 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D3 for 8 weeks, reported that 25(OH)D concentrations increased from 20 ± 6 to 39 ± 9 for 4000 IU/d and from 19 ± 4 to 67 ± 3 for 10,000 IU/d and improved gut microbiota with no adverse effects [138]. Thus, from the literature, it is reasonable to suggest taking 10,000 IU/d for a month, which is effective in rapidly increasing circulating levels of 25(OH)D into the preferred range of 40–60 ng/mL. To maintain that level after that first month, the dose can be decreased to 5000 IU/d [135,139,140]. When high doses of vitamin D are taken, calcium supplementation should not be high to reduce risk of hypercalcemia.
    A recent review suggested using vitamin D loading doses of 200,000–300,000 IU in 50,000-IU capsules to reduce the risk and severity of COVID-19 [43].

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      sophocles

      JAD:
      reproduced here: 29 lines.
      article = 292 lines +
      (no references, diagrams, lists and tables etc not counted nor included in the count)

      = 9.8% which is < 10%

      [Thankyou and it would be great if all could just put a simple note to say they were under the 10% Rule .
      We get so many and some very lengthy with multiple links which usually would take a while to sort out so most just get modded with the same message.
      You're the first to reply and I thank you .]AD

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    kentlfc

    I thought everyone knew that one?

    Like a lot of colds/flu, the sun can do wonders! If not, take a D2 supplement and fish oil to keep the blood thin & flowing.

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    Geoff Sherrington

    This is a repeat since the original went on screen before I had finished it. Geoff S

    As an old deplorable, can I please caution against people rushing to promote miracle cures, or even emerging evidence of a promising fix, just because they like the sound of it or know that it comes from a source that has always been pretty good?
    You must keep in mind that there are many, many competent physicians in the world. (I am not one). Between them they mostly recognise emerging promise and if deserved, bring it into mainstream medicine.
    If for some reason you are feeling that Vitamion D should be encouraged, you might need to complete your personal logic cycle by becoming familiar with how mainstream medicine has treated it to date.
    Nothing I have written implies discourtesy to our host Jo, who has worked rather hard since we became aware of this virus and pandemic.
    Geoff S

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    • #

      Geoff, If you check the first post I did on Vitamin you’ll find that after 20 years of following the nutritional studies on cholecalciferol I covered it from every major angle. Dose, risk, mechanism, form (D3 not D2) and all cause mortality. Many references.

      I became interested in Vitamin in the late nineties when an extraordinary study occurred showing it was almost the only supplement that lowered all cause mortality, when so many other vitamins promised to, but failed.

      If you search Pub Med for Vitamin D you will astonished at how comprehensive the research is. This is no miracle cure, no snake oil. I am skeptical that the numbers as reported from Indonesia could be that incredibly strong, but I have little doubt that right now, taking a moderate dose of D (or getting sun) has far more upside than downside and that the risk margin for harm for this is extremely low.

      As I said, the caveat here is taking Vitamin K as well is a very good idea and if you can get tested, do, but don’t wait for the test.

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        Geoff Sherrington

        Jo,
        Be assured that I have studied every one of your essays this and recommended some to others.
        My objection was gentle, directed to fan clubs for medications, not suggesting people disregard D group.
        Geoff S

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      • #
        Speedy

        Hi Jo

        Sounds logical – zero down side and lotsa upside. And you seem to have been on the right side of the argument throughout this saga.

        A little investment in those solar vitamins might be one of the best decisions we can make at the moment.

        Cheers,

        Mike

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  • #
    george1st:)

    The sun and fresh air certainly are a nicer environment .
    Perhaps it could be part of the treatment for serious cases as well as being a preventative for others .
    Indoor confinement is not good for anybody whether hospitalized , aged care or just isolation .

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  • #
    Fred Streeter

    “But sure, pay the Chinese for the supplement instead.”

    Alternatively, they can source them from the US.

    Why, even the UK has Vitamin and Mineral Supplement manufacturers. One pays a little extra, of course, but Queen and Country, and all that.

    (Re: Exposing oneself to UV.

    As an elderly gent., I prefer not to “frighten the horses”, so to speak. Therefore, when I do my thrice weekly couple of hours stint on our 3 allotment veggie plots, I remain fully dressed.

    However, acting on your advice, I have removed my beard so as to expose as much of my exposable skin as possible.)

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      Fred Streeter

      33 was posted in reply to 5.7.1 above.
      Nothing happened for a while, then it popped up here!

      It has now been re-posted correctly.

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      Speedy

      Hi Fred, I know how you feel. I went to the beach the other day, and this nice life guard asked me if I could get out of the water because the tide wanted to come in…

      Cheers,

      Speedy

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    Maptram

    Off topic, but based on the maximum observed temperature, and from Airport records back to 1997 and the Visitors centre from 2003 back to 1867, Deniliquin has had the lowest maximum on record for the 1st May. The observed maximum was 12°C at 3:30pm. The previous record is was 13.3°C set on 1st May 1960.
    Of course that’s based on the observed maximum, and it wouldn’t be unknown for the long term climate data record to show a spike of 1.4°C or more so that the record is not achieved this year.

    Of course, if such a record is also achieved in other places across the country, there are probably some who will claim that such a record, or near record, achieved during the reduced activity and therefore lower emissions because of the Corona Virus lockdown, are causing temperatures to fall, and is proof that the previous higher CO2 levels were causing higher temperatures and climate change. The problem with such a claim is that temperatures so far in 2020 have been lower than the last few years and the cooling was evident at the beginning of 2020, before the corona virus became a pandemic and the lockdowns started.

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      Environment Skeptic

      And perfect timing to have a virus to distract us..

      Thanks maptram…Felt it.
      A hairdryer to stay warm using the hot air balloon effect under a trusty jacket….early winters and very late and convoluted springs..

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      JanEarth

      Maptram

      Nah it’s the Sun…always was and always will be.

      It’s bloody cold in Adelaide today and it was our wettest April for 22 years I believe. Just goes to show Climate change can be a good thing. UV raedings for the weekend go to moderate on the weekend…perfect for Bill to get out in the Sun and save some money ;)

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      Lucky

      Off topic, so I will type small-
      Is there a correlation between global temperature and industrial activity? Maybe or not.
      But what about CO2 in the atmosphere? It has not changed.

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    JanEarth

    OT

    what is it with this website….every time I open it up it is like I am transported back to 1990 and my modem is transformed into a dial up modem. It doesn’t matter what I do it all is so slow. This is the only site I visit on a regular basis that does this. I am on the NBN via FTTC so this should not be happening.

    What gives ?

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    JanEarth

    Australia to back Taiwan rejoining the WHO :

    warning ABC link follows :)

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/australia-still-backs-taiwan-return-who-risky-move/12204850

    Yes about time. Better hold on folks this is going to get real rough… as I have mentioned before they have the ability to bring down a world of hurt on us. We must stand strong together.

    Next we need a push to get Taiwan into the UN. This will cause a loss of face to the CCP and weaken them in the eyes of the people.

    We probably need to get ready for a war… hopefully it doesn’t happen but the CCP is inscrutable

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    Bill In Oz

    The BBC has discovered that black people in the UK are 3 times more likely to die of Corona virus than whites !
    But it has NOT discovered that vitamin D3 helps prevent this happening !

    How could a major publicly funded media organisation be so dumb

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52492662

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    cedarhill

    IF confirmed, this would explain why there is such a large split in those that have been exposed without contracting the disease to those that “catch” it. The infection rate seems (?) to be about 75%-25%. Elderly people, living in the caves of nursing homes, are certainly deficient to an extreme. It’s not credible to presume the number of active and inactive (antibody) cases represent 100% infection rates. Vitamin D deficiency is a well known deficiency in Western Civilizations due diet, fear of the Sun and inadequate supplementation.

    Dr. Annette Bosworth, Internal Medicine, SD, USA (see her youtube channel) has describe how her father needed higher levels of vitamin D due to kidney disease and found that even with “mega” doses of Vit D supplement, it didn’t move his blood values enough. She prescribe several minutes a week using a tanning bed because the skin synthesis Vit D in huge quantities that are directly absorbed by the body. There’s lots of clinical trials on Pubmed regarding Vit D you can browse.

    The implications could be immense since the only way to increase Vitamin D in a short time (in minutes instead of weeks via supplement). This means everyone that wishes to boost their Vit D should get out in the sun wearing as little clothing as possible for a few minutes (or a tanning bed) provided you’re careful not to be sunburned. It’s the sunburn that is the problem regarding sun exposure (see Pubmed). Remember, humans did not evolve hiding in caves like the Morlocks of HG Well’s Time Machine, but in the Sun, on the plains somewhere around the equator.

    All those “close the beaches and arrest people” orders are counter productive. Plus, Vitamin D is free and, if confirmed, is likely way more effective than any vaccine (which are typically for respiratory viruses in the range of 20-30+%).

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      cedarhill

      As a post-note:

      Why the Elderly?

      Like a connect the dots mosaic:

      1. Cholesterol is essential in synthesizing Vit D
      2. Elderly populations are the largest group being treated with cholesterol lowering drugs.
      3. Elderly populations usually avoid the Sun
      4. Elderly people in nursing homes rarely take inmates outside in the Sun and when they do, they’re covered up/lathered in sunscreens
      5. Elderly people’s metabolism decreases, sometimes dramatically, as they age
      6. Elderly people have the highest percentage of people with metabolic syndrome/insulin insensitivity along with the impacts on all their organs.

      The “perfect storm” so to speak. The older one becomes, the systems just degrade, immune systems get crickety, and current practices provide an assist.

      One issue which is difficult, if not impossible, is how to define “premature death” in these populations in any meaningful way versus intervention. Ultimately, one will arrive at how coma patients are handled along with it’s myriad of religious, philosophical and monetary issues.

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    MrGrimNasty

    So if you are well-nourished active outside fit and healthy etc. you are more likely to throw off a bug. Well I never.

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    cedarhill

    Some articles for those with time during lock down:

    Likely another accidental release and not a bio-weapon?:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html

    Part of the backstory for above here:
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/07/lab-incidents-lead-safety-crackdown-cdc

    Another chapter in the ongoing malarial treatment:
    https://aapsonline.org/aaps-letter-asking-gov-ducey-to-rescind-executive-order-concerning-hydroxychloroquine-in-covid-19/

    Some history of the malarial studies at google docs:
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1545C_dJWMIAgqeLEsfo2U8Kq5WprDuARXrJl6N1aDjY/edit

    Finally, one of the better sites about Vitamin D bio-med structures, pathway, etc., along with lots on micro-nutrients (links):
    https://lpi.oregonstate.edu/mic/vitamins/vitamin-D

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    Chad

    Thursday Open thread ??

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    Katie in NY

    Hi All,
    Great site. I’m visiting for the first time. Right now, I’m trying to get this information to as many doctors and legislators as possible. I wanted to share a great review article from 2018 that gives a ton of useful clinical information on using Vitamin D in critical care.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6240147/

    Also sharing an article that I wrote earlier in April summarizing some of the literature on Vitamin D in other viral infections and using high-dose Vitamin D in patients on ventilators (not COVID).
    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-could-we-be-missing-something-simple/

    Note that my recommendations were conservative because we are not a medical site. Personally, I take 6000 IU of Vitamin D daily and eat a lot of salad for my Vitamin K. Plus gardening with a hat but no sunscreen :)

    Two things that haven’t been touched on here. There is a ton of research on Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms (my kids and I have one) showing that they affect your metabolism of Vitamin D. Also, if you have kidney problems, hyperthyroidism or hypercalcemia, I would only supplement large amounts with the help of your doctor and monitoring.

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      Slithers

      Hi Kattie, I have Hashimotos and take D3(1000iu) & K2(45mcg) Supplements been on that regime for 20 years never had flu and only two colds. My thyroid and Vitamin D levels checked twice a year and have never changed in 20 years since diagnosed with Hashimotos and am on max dose of thyroid hormone replacement medication.
      D3 & K2 work well for me!

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    Matty

    Exactly. Both my parents died in aged care and it was a common cold in both that sent them off but I’d be surprised if the word Corona appears on their death certs. Most days I went there someone was getting wheeled out – it’s happening all the time. Callous as it sounds the big majority of the mortality stats are irrelevant. What matters to me most is that Australians have just agreed to imprison themselves and crush an economy to ensure we have some ICU beds spare at any given moment. Rule by armwaving medicos who won’t feel any economic shock. Only a decade ago we would not have done this but it’s all a bit unsettling for first world types to have a new virus come along and knock people over. When the jets start flying do we do it all again?

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    ImranCan

    Very cool findings. Would be bizarre if it turns out the solution is something so simple.

    May also explain why the Japanese seem to have such low death rates even though their lockdown is not very strict and they have a very old population. THEY EAT A LOT OF FISH !!!

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    I read that hemoglobin is to blame, there is no pneumonia about this virus, and oxygen starvation is due to poor hemoglobin, which should deliver oxygen to any cell in our body.

    00