JoNova

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Corona virus and those exponential curves we don’t want

Been trying to do a Corona thread for three days, but every time it was half finished everything changed.

The WHO have finally declared a state of emergency, something that seemed inevitable as soon as we knew the virus could be transmitted by people without symptoms. Russia, Mongolia, and North Korea closed their borders Thursday. Hong Kong announced a temporary closure. Singapore has now closed its borders too. Mark Steyn meanwhile, marvels that healthy US citizens are being advised not to go to China, but it’s apparently fine for sick people to travel the other way. Extraordinarily a cruise ship with 6,000 passengers was “stuck” off Italy, waiting for clearance for two Chinese people who had symptoms like a flu. Fortunately they must have just had the flu. The ship was cleared. And so it is around the world with a mosaic pattern of super actions, versus business as usual.

British Airways has suspended all flights to and from China, as have many other airlines, but in a city by city way.  The virus is now present in every region of China. It’s not clear why all flights to and from China have not been stopped. On ABC news Australia’s supposedly top medico didn’t explain why, just palmed off the decision as advice from the WHO. Red flags anyone? A union of pilots in the US is so concerned they are suing American Airlines in a bid to stop them flying there to protect crews. They are calling for staff to refuse work trips to high-risk locations. On #CoronaOutbreak there are photos of shelves emptying in Shanghai, people are wearing giant juice bottles on their heads, and not wearing a face mask is considered a bad thing — indeed, people are being arrested for not wearing face masks. Videos apparently show people being forcibly locked inside houses because of their suspected infections.

The first case of human to human transmission has been confirmed in the US and 168 people are now on a watchlist. Passengers on one flight in Australia have just been advised they were travelling on Monday night with a man who has been diagnosed. 200 people are being contacted. The plane flew another 13 legs or so before it got a proper clean and that contact list might, yeah, well… The sick man was part of a group of eight who toured the risky part of China, four of the eight have symptoms and all eight are in isolation.

The live map and official Corona Virus tally (for whatever that means) is 213 deaths and 9,776 confirmed infections, plus or minus 2,000 or 80,000 (Uni HK below). But 100 or so cases are now confirmed outside China, so we are on the cusp of a global epidemic.

And yes, apparently, before that even happens, the Climate Doomsters are already predicting Climate Change will increase the odds of the next one. Never let a good crisis go to waste. h.t Pat

Coronavirus, 2019-CoV, graph, map.

John Hopkins CSSE…Live Map 31-Jan-2019

Ominously, the “total officially recovered”, is just 187 — by this tally, more have died than survived. But this is probably just a measure of those who got the most severe form of the disease and also managed to survive an overcrowded and underfunded Chinese ICU. Added to this, Wuhan is an industrial town with heavy air pollution –  known as “the Chicago of China” or China’s Smog City. That can’t be too good for local lungs.  The guesstimate on the BBC is that about a quarter of people get “the bad form”.

It’s likely that many other people have already caught this in China, but didn’t get deadly sick, and didn’t go to hospital and are not counted here at all. The virus may even cause subclinical, or low grade barely detectable disease in some, though in this world of unknowns,  there are undoubtedly other deaths that may not be included in the tally too — misdiagnosed or undiagnosed and just rushed to the crematorium.

WHO says the death rates are 2% though no one really knows. A recent paper in Lancet estimates 11%. The fact is, there are no facts we can rely on. (h.t Mishtalk) But if that Lancet paper is closer to the mark, there is a gargantuan trainwreck coming. Quick, someone explain exponential curves to the people in power. We need to act like lightning to head this off.

Some estimate put the number of people infected at tens of thousands higher (see estimates below). It did seem odd that a city of 11 million suddenly needed new “2-minute-hospitals” to cope with a few thousand patients. Someone knew something. Indeed, there are many fishy things about this, including those fish markets which may or may not be the source. There is that odd coincidence of China’s first high level biosafety laboratory being also in Wuhan and working with Corona viruses as well as Ebola and SARS. There were warnings.

Below is the official trajectory. What we really want to see on this graph below is any kind of leveling off. Instead, we see 1000 become 10,000 in a week. And the more people infected, the more opportunity for mutations. And if there are wildlife vectors, it will run amok and stick around.

2019 CoV, coronavirus, graph, statistics.

John Hopkins CSSE…Live Map 31-Jan-2019

Here’s hoping…

Communist governments aside, the Chinese people are smart enough and motivated to slow things themselves. Social media and the rapid spread of fear is driving people to isolate themselves, so the epidemic may plateau sooner and lower than the worst projections. There is action. Some towns and even apartment blocks are getting organised and cutting themselves off. As long as people can stay inside and avoid public gatherings long enough, it will help.

The rate of spread

Estimates of the Ro or Reproductive number are in the 2 – 3 range (or lately 1.4 – 2.5) but changing fast.  An Ro of 2 means one person is likely to infect 2 others, which makes it on par with influenza in terms of spreadability (and thus “stoppability” once it has gained a foothold).

Ro examples: Ebola, 1.5 – 2.5; Influenza 2 – 3; Munps 4 – 7; Polio and Smallpox 5 – 7;  Measles 12 – 18.

Obviously Ro matters: Bigger numbers mean faster, higher peaks. Without intervention, the number starts to flatten when enough people are immune through having had it and recovered. Alternately, careful tracing of contacts with vaccination can slow the spread sooner. I’m guessing that even a vaccine with a short lived efficacy would slow transmission and be useful in an emergency situation.

Ro, Reproductive curves, graph, infectious diseases.

Ro, Reproductive curves of  infectious diseases. ResearchGate

Obviously an Ro of 1 or less means a disease will shrink away to nothing. So if quarantine measures are strong enough, and the effective Ro can be reduced, infections will plateau and shrink. But it will take aggressive and quick action to achieve that. Exponential curves are so unforgiving.

Doubling every 6 days?

The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) reported on Jan 27th that the 2019-nCoV spread in China’s cities could trigger a global epidemic.

…experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country’s official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the city’s cases will double over the next 6 days.

They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely symptomatic and the others are still in the incubation period.

Note that other estimates are very different (eg Uni of Lancashire = 11,000)

Estimates of Ro, CoronaVirus, Jan 25th, 2020.  Graph.

Estimates of epidemic spread, CoronaVirus, Jan 25th, 2020  |Mishtalk

They estimate the peak in China will not occur until April or May.  That is a lot of doublings away…

Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from Wuhan—which is central China’s transportation hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most affected city, because of its strong transport ties to Wuhan. They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.

With 8 to 12 doublings til the peak in China, if there are 80,000 infections now, in six weeks there could be 5 million. In 8 weeks 20 million, and in 12 weeks 320 million. If there are only 10,000 now, it may mean the same thing with a three-week delay. But that three weeks could make a huge difference to the final tally if the rate of doubling can be slowed aggressively now. Every day counts.

These estimates are jelly in every sense. The official graph from the John Hopkins live map above suggests the doubling time is much faster than 6 days.

What do you do in a lockdown?

Let’s not forget that in Wuham there are millions of healthy people (and we hope as many as possible stay that way).

 

The Simpsons do it again:

Chiefio has two threads with further discussion here and here.

With a comment from Larry Ledwick who says:

More on the use of existing drugs to suppress 2019-nCoV infections.

http://www.ecns.cn/news/society/2020-01-30/detail-ifztewca0589338.shtml

Chinese researchers have found three existing drugs with fairly good inhibitory effects on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) at the cellular level, a local newspaper has reported.

The three drugs are Remdesivir, Chloroquine and Ritonavir. They are now under relevant procedures to gain approval for clinical use, said Hubei Daily on Wednesday.

Lastly: :- )

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Rating: 9.6/10 (62 votes cast)
Corona virus and those exponential curves we don't want, 9.6 out of 10 based on 62 ratings

202 comments to Corona virus and those exponential curves we don’t want

  • #
    diogenese2

    “Been trying to do a Corona thread for three days, but every time it was half finished everything changed.”

    Give up Jo, this Black Swan has taken flight beyond the ability of anyone to keep up. With sub-clinical human transmission and an R0 of 2 -3 there are only two strategies:
    1) Isolation of contacts: This will rise exponentially and cause economic collapse. China is already facing this as production is falling like a stone. The risk of social disorder is incalculable.
    2) Mass use of Anti-viral drugs. This was used in the UK in the anti-climatic swine flu pandemic of 2009/10.The problem is
    you need 7 billion doses in short order, though this might well be achievable but not, with a 2%+ mortality, something to cheer the hearts of the Green Blob.
    When I first saw the trajectories I wondered if HRH Prince Philip had deceased and achieved his ambition, but this was premature and is impossible anyway because he is not a Buddhist.
    Looking on the bright(?)side,a cataclysm WORSE than RCP 8.5
    will provide a perspective that will surely end the concerns of Extinction Rebellion and their “Climate Emergency”, well as taking the edge of our blessed release from the EU squid in 3 hours time. I shall down a bottle of Lindeman’s anyway and bang my dustbin lid.
    Off topic, note the efforts of you own incomparable Tony Thomas as he channels The Bard to take down one of the pillars of the temple;

    https://cliscep.com/2020/01/31/what-a-piece-of-work-is-mann/

    What more can one say;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z28loH2S8w

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    • #
      William Astley

      You make a good point, however, you are thinking about protecting our countries (developed countries) from an outbreak in China.

      If we lose control, we will be isolating entire countries, possibly continents.

      1) Isolation of contacts: This will rise exponentially and cause economic collapse. China is already facing this as production is falling like a stone. The risk of social disorder is incalculable.

      SARS gave us a false sense of security.

      The Wuhan virus is particularly dangerous as there is documented evidence of asymptotic people transmitting the virus and the long 1 to 14 day incubation period before a person gets sick.

      Assume a reasonable worst case scenario. The Wuhan virus spreads flu like, with a 10% death rate, if not treated in a modern hospital.

      China did not seal their borders, as the government initially spread the lie that the Wuhan virus has not transmittable from human to human.

      China has hundreds of thousands of low paid workers working, in Africa on Chinese, African projects because that is more effective than trying to train and use the local people.

      Assume the virus makes it to Africa.

      60

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Pretty nasty business, especially as Wuhan has a P4 biosecurity lab….what are the odds….

        Has the MSM mentioned the P4 labs’ existence?

        I hope Sky or Bolt picks this up and runs with it and starts asking some hard questions.

        Reminiscent of the regular “ebola” outbreaks in Africa.

        Has anyone seen the movie “The Constant gardener”?

        20

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I made a comment at the height of the south coast fires that as the truth and the Elite were close to being completely exposed, something would appear to shove lack of hazard reduction burning off the front page of most newspapers….

          20

    • #
      Truthseeker

      Everyone relax.

      In 2017 – about 2.7m people got influenza in the US and about 55,600 of them died. That is a pretty standard year for the US.

      30

      • #
        hatband

        Keep in mind that what most people call ”The Flu” is really just a bad cold.

        Actual Flu will make anyone very ill.

        At least that’s what a Doctor told me.

        Anyway, best to give milk and rabbit food a miss and go on the all meat diet.

        It goes like this:

        1. Cut a nice steak off your slab, trim all fat off, cut the fat into cubes plus as much fat you

        like already cubed in the freezer.

        2. Cook the cubes of fat in the skillet to your liking, remove to a bowl with the Slotted Spoon

        pour off the liquid fat into a jar for use on the Barbie.

        3. Eat the cubes of Fat until satiated.

        4. Turn the heat up on the stove and drop your steak in when the skillet starts smokin’.

        5.Sear on both sides, then get stuck into it.

        Repeat as needed through the day, and drink Ice Cold water for a bit of variety.

        00

        • #
          sophocles

          It’s cheaper and more healthy to sunbathe. Australia and NZ get great gobs of sunshine. North America is not so lucky.

          Our skins make vitamin D in great quantities especially those people of European descent. YMMV depending on your natural levels of skin melanin.
          What’s in the animal fat is: Vitamin D.

          I’ve been running a personal experiment over the last four years.
          I get outside at midday on sunny days and sit in the sun in just a pair of shorts. (I sit in a sheltered place because the wind in winter can bite.) I do it at the back of the house so my neighbours aren’t shocked and horrified and their pets aren’t scared. I `bathe’ for 30 minutes. Twice a week if possible. Over winter: from April until October. Sometime between 10:00 am to 2:00 pm to get maximum UVB exposure. (UVA on its own is useless.) No sunscreen used.

          I’m of Northern Irish descent so I’m a white man aka a `paleface.’ I don’t take more than 30 minutes because I burn very easily. A sunbathe actually feels good, afterwards. Over the last four years, I have had no colds — none, nil, nada, zip — and one dose of influenza which was surprisingly mild.
          Before I started this experiment, I caught one or two rather unpleasantly severe colds every winter and an influenza every couple of years. (How did I know it was influenza? If the joints in your back ache, it’s influenza.)

          My results are sufficiently encouraging for me to continue perpetrating this on my neighbours :-D
          Colds are supposedly caused by corona virii. I expect my method to keep me protected from the latest output from the Chinese virus factory. If it doesn’t, well, you’ll never know!

          See:

          http://www.orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v13n08.shtml
          http://www.whale.to/a/cannell.html
          https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/08/27/Canada-Looks-at-Vitamin-D-for-Swine-\Flu-Protection.aspx

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          • #
          • #
            AP

            Thanks Ill try that. Been sick lots over the past five years with littlies in daycare.

            10

          • #
            hatband

            sophocles said:

            It’s cheaper and more healthy to sunbathe.

            Saturated Fat of Animal origin contains Vitamins A, D, E, & K in easily absorbed form and

            1. Fat is the body’s only source of energy. Meat contains all the other Vitamins and

            Minerals essential for health.

            2. A friendly Butcher will give a good customer trimmed fat for nothing,

            since the renderers charge them to take fat and Bone away these days.

            Or, you can eat Carbs, which, apart from initiating an Insulin response, will be

            converted to Fat by the Liver and stored in the tissues as ugly, health destroying fat.

            2. Not a lot of people can afford to be off work Sunbathing in the middle of the day when

            UV[B] rays are at the Max, plus Women in particular need somewhere to Sunbathe

            away from prying eyes.

            So, no, Sunbathing isn’t cheap.

            Australia and NZ get great gobs of sunshine. North America is not so lucky.

            UV[B] penetration to the surface is solely dependent on Latitude and the angles of the

            Sun to the Earth.

            E.g., Southern Queensland gets absolutely no UV[B] from 18th April to 20th August, and

            there’s only a minute either side of Midday on these dates, gradually building up to 3-4

            hours by 20th December and then gradually declining again.

            Even at the top end of New Zealand, at least 6 months of the year would be wasted

            Sunbathing as far as UV[B] and Testosterone production goes.

            A good resource is Dr. Zane Kime: Sunlight Could Save Your Life
            https://www.amazon.com/Sunlight-Could-Save-Your-Life/dp/0960426817

            A magical book, well worth the money.

            00

            • #
              sophocles

              Not a lot of people can afford to be off work Sunbathing in the middle of the day when UV[B] rays are at the Max,

              What? Have you Aussies cancelled all lunch breaks? Cheeze, I’ll stay here in NZ.
              There’s always weekends. And other jobs. Clothing can be adjusted. What a feeble argument.
              Your animal fat regime may supply up to about 100 IU per day. That’s almost useless. Your skin can make 10,000 IU and more in about half an hour.

              Women in particular need somewhere to Sunbathe away from prying eyes.

              An Unimaginative Male Chauvinist Prig. The ladies don’t need their intelligence insulted like that. From what I’ve seen on public beaches they won’t have any difficulty at all nor suffer at all. They’re `best dressed,’ sensible people.

              Southern Queensland gets absolutely no UV[B] from 18th April to 20th August,

              An assertion, made without supporting evidence and likely wrong. But I’m not interested in Southern Queensland. I don’t live there and have no plans to do so at all, ever.

              Even at the top end of New Zealand, at least 6 months of the year would be wasted

              Wrong. I’ve invited you to explain my results. Until you can/do, you’re just making unsupported assertions which my experiences amply demonstrate are wrong. In other words, you’re just shooting your mouth off. NZ has high UVR levels, coming in behind the Andean countries. It’s something to do with our clean air … :-D

              UV[B] penetration to the surface is solely dependent on Latitude and the angles of the Sun to the Earth.

              Only Partly. You forgot about cloud cover. Tch. Really Bathand.

              The best foods for Vit-D are wild caught fatty fish (like cod) sun-dried Shitake mushrooms and reindeer meat/fat. Reindeer are a bit scarce down this end of the world. Hatband will have to arrange imports.

              You’re an X-Spurt, Hatband.

              10

    • #
      mareeS

      We were going to Taiwan and Japan in March, but husband fell over and fractured his shoulder, clavicle, bones in his arm and has months of surgery and rehab ahead. Good result under insurance IMHO., because we are hearing some bad insurance stor8es.

      30

  • #
    Mug Punter

    If you look up Kyle Bass who is a Hedge Fund owner that has studied China for over 15 years and has been closely following this, you might see part of the reason for this outbreak. It is frightening what some ‘researchers’will do for money trying to smuggle viruses out of labs in the US to take back to Wuhan.

    But as always Jo, your Blog is a brilliant first; by far the best I have seen.

    230

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    via Ezra Levant @ twitter:

    “In a bizarre & factually baseless conspiracy theory, Trudeau’s CBC state broadcaster blames coronavirus on global warming: “One of the reasons the human & animal worlds are bumping up against each other is a changing climate”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/what-on-earth-newsletter-infectious-disease-climate-change-1.5446356

    In other older doomsday news, carbon dioxide makes horses fat. Or something …
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/29/climate-change-making-horses-fat-causing-abundance-grass-grow/

    111

    • #
      PeterS

      The diet of some in various Asian countries is downright disgusting. Examples are live rats and frogs, bat soup, monkey brains and the like. No need for conspiracy theories to explain why we have virus breakouts from some Asian countries.

      190

      • #

        My hausboi in TPNG used to catch fruit bats with hooked lengths of fishing line placed in the paw-paw tree to supplement his $4.00 per week wage to feed his extended family and numerous wantoks. Don’t think he made soup of them but suspect they were charred over a fire but I never was tempted to show too much interest lest I be offered a taste and cause offense by declining.

        10

  • #

    There have been a number of website discussion as well as YouTube news videos on this strange Australian government behaviour and everyone points the finger at two issues, not wanting to offend China (and possibly affecting trade) and not wanting to lose money from all the student now returning from China after the holidays.

    Even if the virus wasn’t as bad as it seems, it’s the perception that our government is being driving by the dollar that is so bad. First the bushfires and now this. Our government is run by idiots.

    171

    • #
      Dennis

      Bushfires are not the responsibility of the federal Commonwealth of Australia government, despite the false claims of climate emergency sources and other political hysteria.

      State Emergency Services and within Rural Fire Service in New South Wales deal with bushfires and other emergencies, funded from State Budget and reporting to the Premier via a Cabinet Minister.

      The Prime Minister was on leave, the Acting Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister, was on the job.

      Federal assets such as the ADF cannot be mobilised and deployed until state governments request assistance.

      The NSW RFS Commissioner, who by all accounts did a very good job overall, played politics by complaining that the PM did not consult him before mobilising ADF Reserves to assist State Emergency Services in cleaning up fire damaged areas. The RFS Commissioner reports to the SES leaders and they report to the Minister and Premier, so there was no reason for the chain of command to be broken by direct contact between the PM and the RFS.

      Minister Peter Dutton is not an idiot, he has explained why Christmas Island is being used as a quarantine station including that there are not enough State Public Hospital beds available. Assessing situations from media reports is dangerous, journalists are not briefed on everything and for very good reasons.

      271

      • #

        I know that bushfire response is a state government responsibility. I was referring to Morrison’s ill chosen holiday, forcing a handshake that wasn’t welcome and whatever else has been fumbled and then taken and run with by Labor and the MSM. The Liberals are given negative talking points on a platter to Labor and the MSM.

        The government has been very slow to act on the virus issue, even telling schools not worry and keep going as if nothing is happening. Stuff like this: http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/01/30/dope-of-the-week/. This government does not seem to have a clue about what ‘perception’ means.

        26

        • #
          Dennis

          Why “ill chosen holiday”?

          A planned family holiday in December because the PM was scheduled to attend an important post Brexit trade meeting in India early in the New Year. The Deputy PM was Acting PM while the PM was on leave which is the usual situation.

          And, as above, bushfires are not a Federal Government responsibility.

          220

          • #

            When the holiday was booked is irrelevant. The fact that the country was experiencing the biggest bushfires since 2009 should have told him to cancel his departure and remain in Australia whether he had any responsibility or not.

            And what did Morrison do? Post selfies of himself having fun with celebrities or whoever, while the country burned. Sure, the Federal government has no say in what the states do or don’t do in cases of any emergency, but just look at how Labor and the MSM had a field day over this.

            This is politics. Morrison, his ministers and his advisers should have known and should know better. This is the worst possible PR than any politician could embark on, but it appears par for course for the entire Liberal Party no matter what the issue.

            It’s all about perception. What is it that you don’t understand?

            210

            • #
              Dennis

              Back at you.

              I at least understand Federation of States to form Commonwealth of Australia and the Constitution.

              Regardless of media deception and related public perceptions, too many like you base your knowledge on media releases, facts overboard.

              80

              • #

                I fully understand the differences between powers and responsibilities of the states and the Federal government, why you can’t see that is beyond me. However, what is even more beyond me is that you don’t seem to understand the thrust of my argument about perception.

                All political parties and especially the MSM play upon the lack of understanding that most people have about these, and other, differences and all politicians should be aware that’s what they do for political gain.

                The MSM hates the Liberal Party and will do anything and say anything to make them look bad, lying by omission is as bad as lying. Politicians and their advisers should be absolutely aware of this and act accordingly.

                I’ve done the Federal government’s media awareness course; how to deal with interviews (whether door stop or others) etc. Every politician is aware of how duplicitous the media can and will be if they have an agenda.

                Perception is everything.

                36

              • #
                Dennis

                So what does that have to do with the PM going on leave when Parliament is in recess and no national emergency was taking place, State Emergency Services handling state emergencies that at that time were beginning and not yet out of control?

                Two Premiers out of three States were also on leave at the time, and they are responsible for State Emergency Services.

                But the PM is targeted, and I agree with most of your comments, however with a hostile media indulging in negative propaganda targeting the PM incorrectly when is a good time for a PM to take leave?

                And noting that there was the Acting PM Deputy PM on duty.

                120

              • #

                You and Peter Fitzroy should get together and swap notes, I think you have a lot in common.

                07

              • #
                Bill In Oz

                Bemuded perceptions are reflecting glass mirrors.
                It’s best not to be run by images
                Better to smash the mirror in fact
                In this case the media and it’s bloody perceptions !

                20

        • #
          hatband

          Bemused said:

          Perception is everything.

          Scotty’s problem is he got the job the wrong way by climbing over Abbott

          [who'd eaten Hockey's lunch anyway], undermining Turnbull, and pulling a swifty to deny

          Dutton, who did deserve the job.

          He’d never done anything to deserve it, and now he’s in Abbott’s position in 2015:

          No beliefs, no integrity, and no idea.

          02

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          That handshake.

          Weird, desperate, out of control.

          00

    • #
      Bob-l

      It’s summer here so this isn’t going to be a big deal for us. SARS died out over the Chinese summer, so will this corona viruses don’t do well in hot weather as Ebola doesn’t do well in Cold climate

      On the global warming bent, ironic that global warming could aid the spawning of a cold weather virus. How dumb do they think we are.

      130

      • #
        sophocles

        If this virus is still active in August/September, then it could have effects Down Under. Right now, sunshine is in plentiful supply … Watch for late July onwards — that will be the season in the Southern Hemisphere.

        10

    • #

      It’s interesting to see that many people here don’t seem to realise how perception is/can be reality to the majority of Australians. It doesn’t matter that what Denis is saying is correct, and I agree with what he’s saying, but to ignore/deny what people actually perceive and therefore believe in is crazy.

      The government has been shooting itself in the foot over the last few months through very poor perception management on real issues affecting Australians. But I guess they have been trying to perception manage when it comes to ‘climate change’ by acknowledging the dangers people perceive and endorsing renewables. That’s really good perception management.

      The Liberals are in crisis at the moment and giving Labor way too much material.

      50

      • #

        Bill In Oz
        February 1, 2020 at 10:20 pm

        Bemuded perceptions are reflecting glass mirrors.
        It’s best not to be run by images
        Better to smash the mirror in fact
        In this case the media and it’s bloody perceptions !

        Perceptions are not mirrors, they are the outcomes of propaganda and if you can’t manage perceptions/propaganda you will lose the argument at every turn. It’s all well and good arguing with facts, but how well has that gone over with the public so far?

        Even in this thread, we have one individual acting superior, repeating the same thing over and over, as if I didn’t understand the legal issues and not even listening to what I had to say. How do you think that sort of attitude would come across in a public debate?

        I’ve always said that the Left eventually eats their own, sadly, this thread seems to demonstrate that conservatives aren’t immune from doing the same.

        00

      • #
        Robert Swan

        I’d give the average Aussie a little more credit. Look at the last Federal election, say.

        The question is, should the PM be chasing “perception”? That’s so much in the hands of the media that doing so gives them far too much say in the running of the place. IMO, Morrison was foolish to come back from Hawaii like a naughty puppy. Now he’s really shown them who’s boss. A lost opportunity to show some spine.

        There’s my perception.

        20

        • #

          With the last election, two things happened. Firstly, Morrison appealed to the average Aussie with policies they were comfortable with, a smart and sensible thing to do, which gave him votes. Perception that Morrison was a good guy.

          Secondly, the alternative was Shorten and his radical policies that put fear into everyone that leaned towards conservatism. Australians tend to be more on the conservative side as a whole than anything else; radical change (without good reason) is anathema to most. Perception that Shorten was a bad guy.

          Every organisation needs to manage perceptions, governments are no different. If people start mistrusting you because of what they perceive about you, then you are on the road to failure. The problem is that the Liberal government is not fighting back (like Trump does) when the media push a false narrative.

          Going to Hawaii was a poor decision by Morrison, sending happy pics was even worse PR, but what he did afterwards was no better. Morrison put himself between a rock and a hard place from the outset, it no longer mattered what he did, he was perceived as insensitive to the ongoing bushfire plight and couldn’t make good.

          He attempted a retroactive fix, but even that failed. If he and his advisers had been smart, they could have recovered somewhat by making every effort to push the narrative that it was the states who were responsible for emergency response, he had a trusted and effective subordinate in charge, he was getting constant feedback via phone on the ongoing situation and was ready to return at the drop of a hat, the government was ready to provide whatever support the states required. Rinse and repeat at every media presentation.

          The perception was that he right royally screwed up.

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          • #
            Robert Swan

            My wish would be for representatives who acknowledge the complexities of various scares (virus or fires or CO2), show doubts about solutions, and generally treat their electors as adults. I’m under no illusion that I’ll ever get my wish.

            The nature of our political setup is that the formal players aren’t the only players. There are movers and shakers in the political parties, in media and in business who hold a lot of influence. Political officials use the power of the party “blessing”. Media players hold politicians to ransom with their audiences. Business types use money, legally or otherwise.

            Some blend of those influences meant that this time Morrison’s overseas trip would blow up in his face. I don’t know whether he could have predicted it, but I certainly couldn’t. Perhaps, if he’d stuck to his guns as you describe and I’d have preferred, he would have ended up knifed like Abbott.

            So “perception is everything” is a true statement, but yours and mine aren’t it at all. It’s only the perception of the people with influence that matters.

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            • #

              So “perception is everything” is a true statement, but yours and mine aren’t it at all. It’s only the perception of the people with influence that matters.

              Those with influence don’t have perceptions, only agendas.

              In Morrison’s case, for example, the MSM, Labor and everyone else knew that the Federal government had no involvement in the bushfires until the states asked for help. That didn’t matter.

              Instead, they all had an agenda to make Morrison and his government look as bad as possible. That’s why the Liberals have to be on guard every second of the day to keep their noses as clean as possible.

              Unfortunately, the Liberals seem to have ministers (and possibly advisers) who ensure that when a minister opens his mouth, it’s only to change feet.

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              • #
                Robert Swan

                I don’t know mate. You earlier said that perception was everything. Now, seemingly because I agree, in a qualified way, you say that to the people that matter, perception is nothing. That seems to be arguing for the sake of arguing.

                Anyhow, perception really IS everything, since that’s all anybody has, but let’s skip the philosophy.

                Let’s skip right on to the universe you appear to favour. The one where the Libs are on guard every second of every day for every possible nuance of every thing they might say or do. I don’t fancy it. it reminds me of proving the terrorists haven’t won by getting everyone to go through umpteen undignified rituals before you’ll let them board a flight. Talk about own goal.

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              • #

                People with influence create perceptions in order to further their agenda, it’s different to them having a perception of others. The MSM and Democrats influences people to perceive Trump is evil. The MSM and Labour influence people to perceive that Brexit is evil. And so it goes.

                See what I’m getting at? You have to be on guard all times. Avoid providing any opportunity to further the agenda.

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            • #
              hatband

              Scotty is basically a Low Energy Guy.

              He threw everything into the Election Campaign, then decided to rest on his laurels

              Now, you can say that the Media are all Lefties out to get him, and while there might

              be some truth in that, it isn’t the issue.

              The issue is that he hasn’t been consistent and he’s not displayed courage, whether

              it’s Angus Taylor, Bridget McKenzie, His Hawaiian Holiday, Craig Kelly’s stupid

              Piers Morgan Interview, Karen Andrews and Hollie Hughes gratuitous responses,

              or the Bushfires.

              Paul Kelly all but wrote him off in yesterday’s The Australian, and

              like it or not, it’s not going to get any better.

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            • #

              Anyway, I think my time on this forum is over. Whatever I post appears to be going through some dimensional warp and people are reading what I’ve written in a completely negative way.

              I can’t change how I write, so best to avoid participating entirely and upsetting sensitivities. Therefore, so long and thanks for all the fish.

              10

              • #
                Robert Swan

                Obviously your decision, but I don’t think you need to worry about upsetting anybody’s sensitivities. A thumb reflects zero effort on the part of the clicker, so ignore them. If other commenters find fault with your comments, that is something worth thinking about (at least it is if they’re not trolls). Have they misunderstood? Clarify. Do they simply disagree? Agree to disagree. I’m glad Jo’s blog has a variety of viewpoints and is not just an echo chamber where we all band together and beat up the trolls.

                My suggestion: rather than withdrawing altogether, you should continue to read; don’t feel you have to comment on every article; and don’t take any of it very seriously.

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  • #
    Dennis

    Apparently there is another virus for the elite members of society, the Lexusvirus, it offers more options than Coronavirus.

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    nb

    !) Was SARS most devastating to east Asian populations, including those in other countries? I have heard it mentioned, and the country death stats here suggest it may be so: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/

    2) Do these viruses lose their virulence quickly in successive transmissions?

    3) An informative discussion of the disease can be found at https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos
    He’s a Duke Uni PhD in pathology, now investment advisor. He has not mentioned points 1) and 2) above.

    4) Travis T. Jones, February 1, 2020 at 6:13 am “Trudeau’s CBC state broadcaster blames coronavirus on global warming”
    Here’s what you can trust coming from Canada:
    HIDDEN CAMERA: Police interrogated me about my Justin Trudeau book. They didn’t know I videotaped it
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V__GmSk24qw
    Linked from a recent Catallaxy post.

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  • #
    Lance

    If things aren’t dodgy enough at this point, some researchers in India are claiming the coronavirus has 4 “insertions” from the HIV virus.

    If true, such an event is highly unlikely to have occurred naturally, leading to speculation that it was a “designed virus” that escaped the originating laboratory.

    See paper posted here: https://imgur.com/a/vsNbDty

    Not sure what to make of this. Sounds plausible, but I’m not a virologist.

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    • #
      Lance

      PDF version of paper is at

      https://biorxiv-cache.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/2020.01.30.927871.full.pdf

      Original posting:

      http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871

      “We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag.”….. “Although, the 4 inserts represent discontiguous short stretches of amino acids in spike glycoprotein of 2019-nCoV, the fact that all three of them share amino acid identity or similarity with HIV-1 gp120 and HIV-1 Gag (among all annotated virus proteins) suggests that this is not a random fortuitous finding. In other words, one may sporadically expect a fortuitous match for a stretch of 6-12 contiguous amino acid residues in an unrelated protein. However, it is unlikely that all 4 inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike glycoprotein fortuitously match with 2 key structural proteins of an unrelated virus (HIV-1). “

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    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      Seems pretty dubious:

      “Just checked their results. The similarity is spurious. Out of 4 inserts they identify between NCov and SARS, 2 are found in bat coronavirus. Of the remaining two, only one is most similar to HIV, and is so short (6 AA) that the similarity is not higher than chance given database”

      https://twitter.com/SKonermann/status/1223344537772290048

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  • #
    Ian Hill

    This could decimate sporting events this year, including the Olympic Games scheduled to begin in Tokyo on 24th July.

    I remember there was a scare in the leadup to the last Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 but they went ahead without much ado.

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  • #
    PeterS

    No surprise conspiracy theories are spreading faster than the virus itself. Only time will tell if this is an unprecedented seriousness of the breakout or not, and I’m using the one and only true meaning of the word unprecedented; never done or known before – not the twisted and fake one used today by the MSM, such as in the case of our current bush-fires.
    Coronavirus & the Numbers (thus far)

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    Robert Swan

    Jo, 3rd para.: “as advice from the WMO” — WHO I think. Muscle memory in your fingers perhaps.

    I’m afraid I have a serious case of disaster fatigue. Convenient that the international headlines, having been robbed of the doomsday footage of our bushfires can now be filled with doomsday stories of a virus that hasn’t even been around long enough to be given a proper name. My own models predict that something else’ll knock it off the front page fairly soon.

    [Ta. Fixed - Jo]

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    Steve of Cornubia

    So far at least, the coverage in the media seems to lack some key information. Just how deadly is this virus, really?

    As far as I can tell, all the deaths so far have been within China, possibly within the Wuhan area. Again as far as I know, all the cases diagnosed AND TREATED in countries with fair-to-good medical care have survived. Does this indicate that the virus is less dangerous than influenza? Are those deaths in China at least partly due to poor air quality, less effective early medical intervention, malnourished victims, etc?

    I believe that, just in America and in this winter alone, more than 6,000 people have died due to influenza – and that’s in a country with a pretty good medical system and (generally speaking) healthy, well-fed citizens.

    So could it be that this ‘new’ strain of Corona virus is actually less dangerous than flu? It’s certainly hard to tell based on the ‘expert’ reports I’ve seen and read so far.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      My thoughts also…there is a lot of what appears to be deliberate hysteria, but also many unanswered questions regarding these deaths like:

      - did they have an existing medical conditions?
      - did they die from coronary failure?
      - was malnutrition involved?
      - are specific age groups more at risk like from normal flu?
      - were they on medication that heightened the issues?
      - was it this virus? Corona is a class of virus, which includes SARS – was it identified correctly?
      - was it due to weakness from the cold?

      Lots to think about.

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    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks Steve for that optimistic observation.
      Maybe the virus is not as deadly as feared.

      It is likely too late for quarantine measures to be effective. International air travel saw to that.

      Our Public Health Authorities have not acted in any prompt or decisive manner. The Chief Health Officer published some facts and advice on 26 Jan but I did not receive it until 30 Jan by email!. What I did get lacked useful response information such as contact phone numbers, receiving facilities for suspected infected patients etc.

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    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      249 of 259 deaths have been in the hubei province where the outbreak initially occurred.

      see

      https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

      two definite risk factors from data so far:

      1. for immuno-compromised or otherwise unwell patients
      2. where there is a mass outbreak and the hospital system is overwhelmed.

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  • #
    RickWill

    Chinese factories have been ordered to extend New Year shut down for 10 days. It could be extended as provincial governments take precautionary action. This is shaping up to have a huge impact on the global economy:
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/China-s-industrial-core-at-standstill-as-cities-extend-shutdown

    The Chinese government said Monday that the weeklong holiday would be extended by three days to Feb. 2 to curb the spread of the virus. Some local governments have gone further, such as Shanghai, which on Monday ordered all but certain essential companies, including utilities and supermarkets, not to resume business before Feb. 9.

    China manufactures about half of the world’s finished goods. Any speed bump in Chinese industry will be felt globally.

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    • #
      Deplorable Lord Kek

      “China manufactures about half of the world’s finished goods. Any speed bump in Chinese industry will be felt globally.”

      thanks to western politicians selling their own countries out in the name of predatory capitalism.

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    Bob-l

    Don’t forget that this is a URT virus like a cold virus. It’s a cold weather beast and won’t survive in the Australian Summer so the Northern Hemisphere hype is probably warranted but in the southern hemisphere this will present as a blip unless it survives through to our winter.

    Let’s not get too panicked here Jo.

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  • #
    Dennis

    Last night on Sky News there was a segment on the Queensland Labor Premier complaining that, according to her, the Federal Government has not notified her Government of airline passenger names and details such as mobile phone numbers and accommodation addresses.

    I noted that Federal Opposition Leader Albanesy was also critical about the handling of the coronavirus issue by the Federal Government. And today I did some searches and noted that unions have joined in with criticism too. In other words the same political opponents that attempted to blame the PM for bushfire emergency services and more despite the State Government responsibility and the Premiers of Queensland and Victoria going on leave.

    The fact is, according to Sky News, the Queensland Health Department was supplied with passenger lists and passenger details immediately they became available, and the Premier was either not across the subject or more likely playing mischief politics against the Coalition Government in Canberra. Of course astute observers know that we also cannot trust most sections of ABC/MSM news because of their partisan political stance.

    It should be noted that the PM and Ministers have fallen foul of the socialist globalist profiteering man made global warming mob. One example their decision to no longer contribute to UN IPCC “green funds” announced late in 2019. But many other reasons that ABC/MSM will not broadcast, such as;

    * Legislation to force more competition between electricity generator businesses.
    * And end date for the RET and subsidies.
    * Pushing for State Government approval of development applications for new coal and gas fired power stations – and resulting so far in the VIC and QLD decisions to approve one new gas fired power station in each state.
    * An agreement with the NSW Government to approve pumping of at least an extra 70 petajoules of gas into the east coast market. A petajoule of gas can fuel an entire regional centre such as Wollongong or Penrith for a whole year.
    * Agreements being negotiated for more gas supply from other States.
    * No forced transition to EV being considered.
    * More.

    So Scott Morrison is under attack as Tony Abbott was earlier when he was the PM. Relentless negativity to undermine and smear the PM and the Government he leads.

    Isn’t it strange that Australia met all Kyoto Agreement emissions targets when most signatories did not and is now on track to meet Paris Agreement emissions target but is accused of not doing enough? Why is meeting an agreed target not enough? No, the real reason for the attacks is failure to cooperate with UN IPCC and fellow travellers.

    Sadly too few Australians realise what is happening and they blindly accept the ABC/MSM and other opposition propaganda, and unfortunately help to reinforce it.

    Scott Morrison is well aware of how Tony Abbott was dealt with and obviously is doing his best to get us a better deal but treading carefully picking his way through the political minefield. From where I am sitting I see a repeat of the Abbott Years and public perception influenced by that relentless negativity. How dare Abbott say that he would not stand for socialism masquerading as environmentalism.

    Christopher Monckton’s video warned Australians that PM Abbott was under pressure, and recommended that we watch his back, and Monckton was right, but we didn’t watch Abbott’s back, too many went along with the media and other opposition lies about him.

    PM Morrison was a Turnbull supporter but I believe that he worked him out and is no longer supportive of Turnbull or what he stands for as a globalist. First clue was when during the leadership spill Turnbull sarcastically suggested that all Morrison wanted was to get his “bum” onto the prime ministerial car seat. Next was his defiance of the Morrison Government while representing the Government overseas where he criticised them. PM Morrison said afterwards that Turnbull would not get another opportunity to do that. And since Turnbull has maintained his criticism and sarcasm directed towards the PM and the Government he leads. Hardly what a handler would do to a puppet. On the other hand a PM intent on dismantling the many problems like lack of dams, electricity supply and pricing issues, taxpayer funding of UN IPCC “green funds” and more would be a source of enormous anger and frustration for climate change hoaxers.

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    OriginalSteve

    No matter how hard I try, I cant shake the feeling this is something thats been accidentally released…..or…..

    It may also be a test of some description.

    People want to think the best of humanity as we observed with the fires, the current problem is, those at the top are demented these days it seems. In an age of the rise of the political strongmen like Erdowan, Putin, Xi and Trump, what better way to suspend elections and constitutions that some “emergency” that required drastic action.

    As to the Simpsons…yes…eerie…like the “Illumonati” card game also teleased about the same time that appeared to predict 20p1 events remarkably accurately.

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    • #
      pattoh

      Kinda put a dampener on the OBOR initiative.

      One thing to keep an eye out for will be the potential for this to take off in Africa with all the human communication flows on the back of Chinese development investment.

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    • #
      PeterS

      We will not know the full details of the dark secrets certain elite must be holding until their plans have been implemented a long way down the road. That I’m afraid is how it always works with the evil ones. In the meantime speculations and conspiracy theories will run rife and only cloud the situation. The best thing we can do is watch, learn and see how the jigsaw pieces fall into place. The picture will eventually become clear, at least to those who bother to think.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      The Wuhan P4 laboratory is the origin, the virus escaping has many explanations from accidental to profiteering, using Occam’s Razor I’m also reminded reminded of Hanlon’s,

      Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

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        OriginalSteve

        Well, either way the existance of such a lab may answer at least one lingering question.

        Mind you, how dumb would it be to release( by whatever mechanism ) so close to a lab that houses such things? Kind of like passing wind in an elevator…the number of suspects is limited….

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      • #
        hatband

        The problem there is that you’re dealing with very smart people.

        So stupidity is unlikely.

        01

    • #
      WXcycles

      Speculation is not the way to go.

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  • #
    el gordo

    Rats and fleas didn’t bring the Black Death to Europe, it was a virus.

    ‘In October 2010, medical geneticists suggested that all three of the great waves of the plague originated in China. The 13th-century Mongol conquest of China caused a decline in farming and trading. … Plague was reportedly first introduced to Europe via Genoese traders from the port city of Kaffa in the Crimea in 1347.’

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    • #
      SteveS

      Back to school for you…. The plague was not a virus….Bacterium

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      • #

        Not so simple. There are theories both ways. See The White Death (a book) I read years ago suggesting many reasons to think it behaved more like a virus.

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        • #
          Graeme Bird

          I thought the black plague was a pretty obvious case of biological warfare. But then I stumbled upon some information that we had this burst of “cosmic rays” right about this time. Which seems too much of a coincidence. And it may have compromised peoples immune systems. So my prior feeling of certitude plummeted.

          The original story is pretty lame. You get these black rats, a tropical species. Supposing I’m launching an attack on Europe with some sick black rats. It would be like slapping the boards behind frogs to try and get them to jump. You’d stomp on the ground. You’d place some food bribes ahead of the sick black rats. You’d beg them to attack Europe. It would never fly. Plagues had mostly been about sieges and things. Life in the polluted walled city.

          That people suspect a suite of lurgies lends itself more to biological warfare. Ahead of the plague a couple of famous banking houses had failed and so you’d wonder if the Venetian oligarchs couldn’t have cooked up a scheme to reduce the demand for silver for holding, and distract everyone from the possibility of a banking collapse. But if they killed off their own clients only ……. that strategy would shift the balance of power against Venice, so the idea was to move their banking operations to Milan and kill as many people in the continent as they possibly could. The idea would be to pollute all the waterholes.

          Anyway this cosmic ray burst that has been alleged might be making all this thinking obsolete.

          https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Gif+The+black+plague+spread&atb=v92-4_f&ia=images&iax=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fd%2Fd3%2FBlackdeath2.gif

          Note the delay to the infection of the city around Milan and a giant area around Crackow. Seems to suggest an area of operations and a safe haven.

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          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Brilliant

            [Keith. Repeat no-contribution one word drive-bys are conversation-stoppers. Either say something or get snipped. - Jo]

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            • #
              Graeme Bird

              What are you up to brother? Aren’t we supposed to be on the same side? Did you see the gif? Fascinating hey? The three places where the spread was delayed are Crakow, Milan and an area in the Pyrenees mountain range. When I thought it was definitely biological warfare, If figured that the third area was Basque territory. And maybe that the Basques were a little too rugged to mess with. Turns out that the Basques were hit hard also. And it was just mountains.

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      • #
        el gordo

        Thanks Steve, the Black Death was different to the bubonic plague.

        ‘First of all, bubonic plague is intimately associated with rodents and the fleas they carry. But the Black Death’s pattern of spread doesn’t fit a rat and flea-borne disease. It raced across the Alps and through northern Europe at temperatures too cold for fleas to hatch, and swept from Marseilles to Paris at four kilometres a day – -far faster than a rat could travel. Moreover, the rats necessary to spread the disease simply were not there.

        ‘The only rat in Europe in the Middle Ages was the black rat, Rattus rattus, which stays close to human habitation. Yet the Black Death jumped across great tracts of open country-up to 300 kilometres between towns in France-in only a few days with no intermediate outbreaks. “Iceland had no rats at all,” notes Duncan, “but the Black Death was reported there too.”

        Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-really-cause-the-black-death/#ixzz6Cfz5hTer

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      Graeme Bird

      Some theorists suggest that China is the breeding place for these lurgies because of an area where the soil lacks selenium. Selenium is thought to be good medicine for these problems.

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  • #
    PeterS

    US is now denying entry of all foreign nationals who have travelled in China within the prior 14 days. Other countries are doing the same. Some are denying entry to all Chinese passport holders, period. I think these are wise moves. Better to be overcautious than not enough.

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  • #
    Kim

    Just a point on pedantics: My understanding is that coronavirus is a general type of virus – not a name for a specific virus strain. As such it should be called something like Wuhan Coronavirus. Maybe someone can correct me?

    50

    • #
      Lance

      Corona (from Greek meaning “crown”) virae comprise a family of upper respiratory tract viral infections. The Wuhan strain is currently known as 2019-nCoV .

      All of them look like a ball with spikes protruding from the base sphere surface. The ends of the spikes have receptors on them that bind to specific proteins in the human body. It is the binding sites and specific protein targets that differentiate the various CoV’s.

      The Wuhan strain may, or may not, have been “designed” in a lab. Evidence is inconclusive as of yet, although some Indian researchers claim that 4 pieces of genetic material from the HIV-1 virus are found in the Wuhan strain. If so, that just isn’t normal.

      The keeping of pigs in close proximity to avians (chickens, etc ) can be problematic in that swine/pigs can transmutate avian viruses into human transmittable viruses. The pigs are essentially a “mutation engine” that crosses viruses over into human infectious strains. In China, it is common to raise fowl and swine in close proximity. That’s really poor judgement on their part.

      Things are going to get a lot more interesting before they get better.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Countries will adopt names based on cultural bias, Americans have a Knack for this and will soon claim My Corona……….

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    • #
      Benny Cemoli

      The official name of this virus is 2019-nCoV (2019 Novel Coronavirus). Don’t know who came up with the name but there you are. :-)

      30

    • #

      It’s specifically #2019nCoV

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  • #
    Penguinite

    Given the probable start date of, what is now Pandemic, the horse has definitely bolted. As JN’s article infers it is quite likely that some people with stronger immune systems may well have overcome the virus which make them probable carriers and symptom-less? Thank you PRC!

    30

  • #
    Karabar

    I have been following Jeff Nyquist for years. He has some credibility.
    Take this with a grain of salt, but if it is true be very concerned.

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  • #
    John in NZ

    I’m in Melbourne for the tennis.

    Not a lot of quarantine options at the AO.

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  • #

    Umm, I had a call from my brother early this morning. (Saturday 7.30AM) He’s currently in hospital with his leg ulcer problems. He’s in the Gold Coast University Hospital, the newest major hospital here in Queensland, a 750 bed facility opened in 2013. (It’s where I went to have my Heart Pacemaker fitted) and perhaps one of the most modern hospitals in the State at the moment.

    He told me this morning that he has been transferred across to the adjacent private hospital, along with a bunch of other inpatients, and they are being treated there at the public expense.

    The reason he was transferred, he told me (and what they told him) is that they are setting up THREE full wards on three floors of the main public hospital, just to handle this Coronavirus problem. Each ward has around 20 rooms and two beds per room, so the projected capability to handle 120 patients.

    There are currently two inpatients with the Coronavirus in this same hospital, both visiting Chinese from a tourist party, the one that flew into Melbourne, and then on the Tiger Air flight into Brisbane.

    Now, I would expect that this may be a contingency exercise, but I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere, naturally I suspect, because they would not want to panic the general public.

    But really, Three whole wards and 120 beds. They must be expecting it to get a whole lot worse.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks Tony,

      That is the sort of decisive action that I was hoping to hear about.
      The Queensland Health Department has created a capacity to isolate and treat 2019-nCoV patients.
      Hopefully 120 beds turns out to be overkill, but to my mind it is simply a wise precaution.

      Creating all the beds in the one hospital, in just three wards means that the systems for receiving patients, moving them to the wards, feeding, bathing and treating can be practiced and refined. The staff have to know how to protect themselves and other patients as well as caring for the 2019-nCoV patients. Looking after patients in a fully isolated environment is a very difficult thing. Some of them may need surgery, which means major preparation and subsequent clean up before the theatre can be used again. All will need xrays, which is another major problem. Portable chest xray machines can stay on the ward, but we just don’t have spare CT scanners and fluoroscopy units.

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      • #

        Man, when my good lady wife was recently in Redlands Hospital (Queensland) for more than a Month with Pneumonia related reasons, I was surprised how much treatment was actually done on the Wards themselves. They brought the X Ray machine to her on the ward, all blood testing procedures etc, and everything computerised, and everything done at a speed I once thought hospitals incapable of doing, as it all happens very quickly when it needs to be happening.

        In between the wards, they have what is referred to as an HDU, (High Dependency Unit) and that’s the middle step between the ward and the ICU, (Intensive Care Unit) and those HDU’s have four beds, and they can do things there that cannot easily be done on the Wards, and do not necessitate the process of moving the patient to somewhere more distant within the hospital.

        It was an eye opening thing to see just how efficiently a modern hospital works.

        The nurses have access to portable WOW’s (Workstations On Wheels) and all patient information, all of it is on each of those WOW’s. They have four beds to a room and there are generally two of these WOW’s per room for the Nursing Staff. Doctors have their own WOW’s that they wheel around with them, and the ‘roving’ specialists just walk around with ‘hanger on’ Doctors wheeling their own WOW’s.

        As you might expect, being electrically operated, I was interested in those WOW’s and did some research on them. Battery operated with two batteries in a pack about four times the size of a Battery Drill pack, and around five hours constant use out of the battery before a recharge is required. Each one has a Laptop and large Monitor. Amazing things really, as everything about the patient is in the one readily accessible place for each nursing staff member.

        So, yes, I actually have a lot more confidence in hospitals now than I did a couple of years back, and having been in that GCUH to have my Pacemaker fitted, it is a tremendously modern facility, so I can understand why (looks likely) it was chosen as the ‘one stop’ facility if there needs to be a gearing up of needs with this Coronavirus situation.

        Tony.

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          Tony I’m pleased to hear about the high level proactive arrangement at Gold Coast.

          Much has been made of the overcrowding etc in Wuhan but there are no GP’s in China, so the hospitals are always crowded with waiting lines.

          Most Australians would be surprised at the high quality of hospital care in China. Two years ago a family member was diagnosed with Leukaemia here in Australia and returned to China once she was stable. Specialist notes went with her and she had access to all the same tests conducted here and the same treatments as well as traditional therapies.

          Other family members have had surgery for various conditions and the level of care is up there with ours.

          I’d like to think that the containment in China is quite adequate, if somewhat tardy and that the practice of selling wild food in open markets is at an end.

          60

        • #
          Peter C

          Thanks Tony,

          Once again you create a wonderful word picture of a complex process, in this case the operation of a modern hospital ward.

          Consider all the functions that you have observed. Then consider that everything that goes out of the ward can piggyback the virus, which is trying to escape.
          Even the air that we breathe. Hopefully the three wards are on a separate ventilation circuit from the rest of the hospital. The air intakes probably have filters but what about the air exhausts?

          Everything leaving the ward needs decontamination; food, utensils, linen, medical equipment, supplies etc.

          The biggest problem is people, which is the hardest to deal with. Each one can not only carry the virus, but also become infected, then spread the infection. And they are constantly changing shifts. Most wards I have seen don’t even have a change facility, let alone air locks.

          If Hazmat suits must be worn, every process takes a lot longer under uncomfortable conditions. You probably experienced NBCD suits during your air force service. Hot, cumbersome and clumsy.

          Then every thing which is disposable has to be burned. In the good old days hospitals had a boiler house. I am not sure what they do now.

          30

  • #
    jack

    Acknowledgment to inspiration from Ruairi.
    :
    When the product is a power,
    life can become,
    very dour.
    With exponential reproduction,
    see health and joy in,
    great reduction.

    30

    • #
      Yonniestone

      The virus that came from Wuhan,
      Was it part of a Communist plan?,
      Or a human mistake,
      Either way its not great,
      For the state of its people and Yuan.

      53

      • #
        jack

        Yonnie,
        you do have the knack.
        Are you calling it Ode to My Corona?

        20

        • #
          Yonniestone

          It was a very catchy tune globally, I hope the virus isn’t as successful.

          31

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Ooh my little catchy one, catchy one.
          When you gonna give me some time, Corona?
          Ooh you make my fever run, my fever run.
          Get it standin’ in a line Corona
          Never gonna stop, give a cough.
          Such a dirty strain. Always get a glove for the touch
          of the monkey brains. My my my i yi woo.
          M M M My Corona, Come a little closer huh, ah will ya huh.
          Hope I don’t bleed from my eyes, Corona
          Now I’ve got the Dysentery need to pee
          Running down the length of my thighs, Corona.
          Never gonna stop, give a cough. Such a dirty strain.
          Always get a glove for the touch
          of the monkey brains. My my my i yi woo.
          M M M My Corona
          M M M My Corona When you gonna give it to me, give it to me.
          It is just a matter of time Corona
          Is it just conspiracy, conspiracy?
          Or is it just a human mistake, Corona?
          Never gonna stop, give a cough.
          Such a dirty strain. Always get a glove for the touch
          of the monkey brains. My my my i yi woo.
          M M M My Corona
          M M M My Corona

          43

          • #

            Very poor taste! Why don’t you fly to Wuhan and sing it to some Chinese people?

            20

            • #
              Yonniestone

              Really?, a country that eliminated 40 million of their own during the great leap forward, ran over their own students with tanks during a peaceful protest, have some of the greatest suppression of free speech in the world, currently implementing a social credit system on its citizens, and my parody on an 80′s pop song is just so terrible?

              Do you think China gives rats @## about you or your personal beliefs on western liberties?
              Look at whats happening in our own backyard and ask yourself how has this happened?

              I suggest you get a grip on reality sunshine and work out who the real bad guys are!

              74

          • #
            TedM

            Not impressed yonniestone.

            20

            • #
              Yonniestone

              See above and have a cup of cement.

              62

              • #
                Greg in NZ

                Dang, Yonnie,

                I was with you on every verse/chorus/mi i yi wooo!

                (yes I paid to see The Knack back in the day – one of life’s few regrets but the guitar solo was stonking!)

                The whole ‘crown virus’ charade is a little too-well orchestrated for this doubting Kiwi. The Henry Kissinger-Heinz Inc. long-play anyone?

                21

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        The West no longer needs communists to practice all manner of deceit and evil.

        28

  • #
    frederik wisse

    Please take a look at the american site peakprosperity.com and an american physician will explain the latest math out of the usa using the most recent figures . Please get prepared as a worldwide pandemonium will be unfolding in a couple of weeks . The cat is out of the bag and no human will be able to stop it . Get used to staying in your house and to sit the whole ordeal out . Even the best western health system will be stretched over its limits . Let us hope that the virus will mutate very fast and becomes less aggressive .

    30

  • #

    Has anyone has picked up on the arrest of eight Wuhan doctor whistleblowers on 1st January?

    They’re now being praised almost a month down the track. My wife is Chinese so you can imagine how we’re following the news on every available platform and word of mouth.

    One thing is very clear to me. The full extent of the spread, the numbers of those infected and deceased, and the source of #2019nCoV is understated. Furthermore, the word took weeks longer to get out because of the early attempts to minimise damage to reputation or loss of face. Compounding this is the unclear incubation period and the fact that the virus can be spread by asymptomatic carriers.

    The greatest irony is that the attempts to whitewash have come back to bite with many citizens and expats ashamed by what happened a month ago.

    50

    • #
      PeterS

      Meanwhile the Democrats are more interested in impeaching a US President who on the face of the facts did nothing illegal to warrant being impeached in the first place. We will see how stupid they Democrats are soon once Trump is cleared. Some are claiming they will try another impeachment. I say go ahead. While Trump is doing a reasonable job on so many fronts, including the current virus issue, the Democrats are busy digging a bigger hole for themselves. How stupid can they be?

      91

  • #
    Brian

    Actually the US have just implemented a policy restricting entry. Any US citizen retiurning form the epicenter of the infection has to undergo mandatory 14 day quarantine. Any US citizen returning from other areas of China has to undergo 14 days self quarantine. (Given human nature, good luck with that one). No foreign nationals coming from China are permitted entry. That level of restriction is being mirrored in a lot of countries. Australia of course is more interested in tourist dollars than protection of the population.

    70

    • #
      WXcycles

      When people arrived in Australia a century ago, by ship, it was common to spend 6 weeks or more in quarantine on a remote island or cape, to have all items pressure-streamed, and a final medical examination to enter.

      30

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        But not always. My grandfather arrived in Fremantle just as the Coolgardie gold rush started and the crew deserted on mass. My Grandfather was the fourth mate (i.e. engineer), and having nothing to do, went sight seeing in Perth. Pausing at the back of the big bakery he noticed a problem with one of the steam engines driving the machinery and commented that to the owner. He was engaged on the spot.
        50 years later he told my father “2 guineas in gold in my hand, every a week, I never dreamt of such wealth, and resolved never to leave this wonderful country”. Nor did he.

        30

      • #
        beowulf

        When my grandfather was coming back from WW1 their troop ship was quarantined for Spanish Flu for a couple of weeks each by multiple port authorities, firstly off Fremantle, then again off Adelaide, then Melbourne. By the time their ship arrived off Sydney the remaining men were mutinous, desperate to see their families, and they refused to be quarantined again by the Sydney port authorities.

        Sanity of sorts prevailed and a compromise was reached where they were camped in isolation on Sydney showground for a fortnight before they were given their liberty. My grandfather’s brother jumped the fence and met him anyway, one of many.

        30

  • #
    Crakar24

    OT but spoke to a mate last night at the pub, he is the captain of the williamstown cfs.

    He has fought fires in qld, nsw, vic and obviously sa, he says the fuel loads in other states are massive combined with terrain make them impossible to fight.

    The worldometer is good to follow for virus totals

    30

  • #
    • #
      Graeme Bird

      In science we should be ranking and re-ranking 3-5 competing hypothesis in accordance with the data rolling in. So if what you are saying is true, then that would tend to elevate the biological warfare hypothesis and drop a little bit down the naturally occurring hypothesis, without necessarily being a total slam dunk. What we must always avoid is this faux-Popperian null hypothesis and the idea of a burden of proof. This entire epistemology amounts to a kind of treason-lite. For one thing it always puts obvious wrong-doing on the back foot.

      27

      • #
        hatband

        Yeah, this Popper dude was Soros’ mentor.

        Really bad news.

        03

        • #
          Graeme Bird

          In philosophy circles things have moved on. But his conjectures and refutations epistemology is the default now, because its an enabler in the continuation of mainstream error. I liked him because he would engage with deep thinkers like Friedrich Hayek who no-one much seemed to be talking to at the time. He wrote a book called “The Poverty Of Historicism” which was an attack on some aspects of Marxist thought. For reasons of this sort the conservatives kind of latched onto him and he became the conservatives favourite philosopher. Plus I was biased towards him because my Mother got three degrees from Massey University and he did a stint there so you know; You like people for the strangest reasons. But really his epistemology was just rubbish. Or if it wasn’t his followers certainly misuse his thinking.

          00

  • #
    pat

    TonyFromOz –

    need your help over on Jo’s “Friday Open Thread” post re claim multiple coal fired plants had to shut down etc. see my comment #30.

    50

    • #
      • #
        pat

        TonyFromOz -

        found it. many thanks. hope everyone reads your response.

        60

        • #

          Oh dear,

          maybe whoever made this statement got coal fired power mixed up with wind power in Victoria.

          Macarthur wind plant, the largest wind plant in the Country, with a Nameplate of 420MW was generating well, up and down most of the morning and at around 300MW for three hours, and then at around 11.30AM, it dropped off line, back to zero, then up a little and then off totally from 2.30PM, and stayed at zero for the remainder of the day.

          Tony.

          80

          • #
          • #
            pat

            TonyFromOz -

            ABC knows best. they are trusted. they never lie:

            28 Jan: ABC: The future of coal has already been decided in boardrooms around the globe
            By Ian Verrender
            (Verrender spent 25 years at The Sydney Morning Herald in a variety of roles including senior writer and business editor. He joined Business Spectator and Eureka Report in 2012 and joined the ABC in 2014)
            PIC: Dusk, chimneys, “smoke”
            Early last month, as fire swept across large parts of the east coast and South Australia but before the Christmas conflagration, secret internal documents detailing ANZ’s rapid retreat from coal (LINK) hit the news…

            A few weeks later, investment bank Goldman Sachs, in one of the strongest positions from any American financier, ruled out future thermal coal financing, either for new mines or power stations globally.
            Then, a fortnight ago, the world’s biggest investment house Blackrock, announced it was drastically reducing its exposure to thermal coal…

            United in the unbridled pursuit of profit
            These weren’t knee-jerk reactions to the horror, the wholesale destruction and tragic loss of life across rural Australia, unfolding on television screens around the world.
            Nor were they the actions of the “green left”.
            The message each is broadcasting is clear. When it comes to investment, coal, particularly thermal coal for electricity generation, has little, if any, future…

            Coal mines and coal fired power stations are projects with very long life spans that require huge amounts of capital…
            Renewable energy is now no longer just a cleaner alternative to coal…
            It’s also cheaper and costs continue to fall. According to the Federal Government’s energy market operator and the CSIRO, “wind and solar are clearly the cheapest new form of electricity generation”.

            In a joint report last year, the pair found that while existing coal plants remained the lowest cost, when it came to building new plants, coal could not keep pace. And that’s even without the introduction of a carbon price…

            How is it that often intelligent, high achievers, some of whom hold office, can argue so forcefully against the overwhelming weight of evidence?…
            In most facets of their lives, climate sceptics rejoice in scientific advancement and technological breakthrough.
            There’s never any debate about Einstein’s theory of special relativity. They never question the revolution wrought by electronics. They revel in high-speed travel. And when it comes to health, they demand the latest and the very best.
            But with climate — or more specifically electricity generation — they blanch at the idea of moving much beyond 1776, the year James Watt improved Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine…

            The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, is under no illusion about the future…
            “Many of Australia’s key thermal coal export destinations including China, Japan and South Korea, are transitioning away from coal-powered electricity generation.”…
            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/why-finance-is-fleeing-fossil-fuels/11903928

            40

            • #
              pat

              TonyFromOz -

              and another for your comment:

              1 Feb: ABC: Analysis: Electricity prices are tumbling for generators, why not for consumers?
              By business reporter Stephen Letts
              Updated about 4 hours ago
              Average active wholesale contract prices have fallen roughly 36 per cent over the past three months.
              Forward prices are depressed way off into the future too — down 26 per cent in 2020, 15 per cent in 2021 and around 10 per cent into 2022 and 2023.
              But at the household level there is little change in sight…

              “The rapid and significant collapse in wholesale electricity prices over the last three months has caught us by surprise,” Mr Busuttil (JP Morgan energy analyst) told clients in a research note…
              “On electricity, renewable power plants are only marginally economic and there has been a noticeable slowing of capacity coming online,” he said…

              ***Electricity consumption across the National Electricity Grid was down almost 20 per cent last week, and that has been the trend since the start of the year…

              Mr Leitch said falling demand is was not a surprise given the rapid uptake of rooftop, behind-the-meter solar generation that now makes up around 7 to 8 per cent of energy consumption.

              “Energy efficiency is also ongoing and that’s also encouraged by high prices,” he said.
              “Look at the US, California has higher unit prices but their power bills are lower than Texas with its much-cheaper power.”
              On the supply side, the Loy Yang 2A coal-fired unit and the Mortlake gas-peaking plant are up and running again, despite some earlier doubts they would be ready for summer.
              New wind and solar are also having some impact, as are lower coal and gas prices…
              https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/electricity-prices-tumbling-for-generators-what-about-consumers/11912620

              30

            • #
              pattoh

              The ABC would be off the air without coal fired power.

              [a mixed emotion conundrum?]

              20

  • #
    William Astley

    If there are significant cases of the Wuhan coronavirus in the developed countries now, this epidemic might already be out of control, in Africa, due to the large increase in Africa-Chinese air travel and tourism.

    If the Wuhan virus makes it to Africa, it will almost certainly become an established new disease, where there will always be cases in the infected regions.

    That was the concern for SARS.

    There are 200,000 Chinese workers in Africa and 200,000 African immigrants living in China.

    There has been a 600% increase in air travel between China and Africa in the last decade.

    There are 20,000 Chinese businesses in Africa.

    https://qz.com/africa/1680094/why-chinese-are-traveling-to-africa-and-why-africans-are-traveling-to-china/

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2019/10/03/what-china-is-really-up-to-in-africa/#cc0298059304

    There are roughly 1.2 billion people in Africa, 400 million that do not have access to electricity.

    20

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    A lot of signs that this is coming from biological warfare labs. Either escaped accidentally or on purpose. I don’t see this hypothesis as conclusive. Not even dominant yet. Just one amongst many. In any case its only a virus. Viruses aren’t so sophisticated. So my doctrine of viruses is they kill you when they throw you into a vicious cycle. So this one makes you cough, makes it hard to breathe, so you cannot sleep. So you cannot fight the virus because your immune system is compromised. Then you die, more through the vicious circle then through any inherent power of the virus.

    Or Ebola which seems to be only a third world virus … it peels off your skin, you get secondary problems, so your immune system is so badly compromised you cannot fight off the original virus and so forth. Or there are the viruses that cause bleeding. Same thing. The viruses themselves would normally be fought off in lets say three weeks and only the vicious cycle is going to screw you over. So be nice to family members or the only way they will lift a finger to help the situation is to dig a very deep hole. Start loading up your body on vitamin D and Iodine now, and develop a good stash of liposomal vitamin C for this winter. Have a bottle of colloidal silver in the fridge and then figure out some strategy for if you are having breathing problems and coughing problems and cannot sleep. Get stash of selenium as well. Since there is the belief that a lot of these lurgies tend to come out of an area of China where the soil is unnaturally devoid of selenium.

    But its only a virus and if you have a job and can afford everything above, it ought not put you under. But one thing is important. If you have a sore throat this winter don’t be soldiering on. Take it seriously.

    38

    • #

      Graeme Bird
      You say

      A lot of signs that this is coming from biological warfare lab

      What signs?

      You say its only a virus but you seem to have missed the point. 15 % of of 41 patients in the Lancet cohort died.

      Sorry Graeme I can’t take you seriously at all!

      51

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        I would have likely have died. So the sample size would have been 42. And I would have pulled up the percentage deaths to 17%. I worked in a factory with flour dust in the air for 22 years. So I cannot afford to get in a vicious circle where I’m coughing, and I cannot sleep, and then my lungs get irritated. From a personal point of view I’m going to be more worried about this virus than you are. You misread my comments. If you prepare enough and have good family relations you should be able to avoid this virus killing you, or any virus killing you, if you can avoid falling into a vicious cycle.

        What signs? You just gave us this indication? You won’t see it unless you are working with the various hypotheses in parallel. You presented evidence to say it didn’t come from the food market.

        25

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Advice on steroids.

      31

  • #
    Aussie Mick

    Be careful with believing anything on Twitter…

    The Simpsons reference has been doctored. It was the Osaka Flu, not the Corona Virus, in that episode.

    About as accurate as a climate model I guess.

    90

  • #

    Daniel Lucey-UPDATE Wuhan coronavirus – 2019-nCoV Q&A #6: An evidence-based hypothesis

    Did 14 of the 41 patients (34%) have no exposure to this seafood market?
    Yes.
    The hypothesis is that the initial emergence of the virus was not the Huanan seafood market. Spread of the virus was already occurring person-to-person in October-November (or earlier) and gradually increasing into December. Thus, some of the 14 of the 41 patients who had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market (see page 3 Figure 1B) would be explained.

    Thus, the presumed rapid spread of the virus apparently for the first time from the Huanan seafood market in December did not occur. Instead the virus was already silently spreading in Wuhan hidden amidst many other patients with pneumonia at this time of year.

    Thus, some of the 14 cases with no exposure to the Huanan market out of the total 41 cases (see article page 3, figure 1B) could be explained by the pre-existing chains of transmission causing ongoing person-to-person transmission and/or transmission from infected animals (1 or more species) in other markets inside and/or outside Wuhan, or anywhere along the supply chain of infected animals.

    Lucey concludes and this will be of some comfort to Chinese people:

    If in fact the virus was silently spreading unrecognized amidst other types of pneumonia in Wuhan, in the absence of a specific diagnostic test, for several months before its discovery in early January 2020, then the virus was already present across parts of Wuhan and other places in Hubei province, other parts of China, and even in limited numbers to some other countries. Thus, China could not have instituted earlier control measures against an undiscovered virus.

    50

  • #

    Somebody told me that Coronavirus isn’t so bad if you already have Lyme Disease.

    [Not a doctor]

    30

    • #
      Graeme Bird

      It might be they already have a whole suite of remedies and concoctions on the fly. They won’t be inoculated against Corona through Lyme. Rather they will be kitted out with a pantry of gear helping them get by one day at a time. At this moment I’m adding iodine to my beer. [snip.]ED

      37

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Absolutely brilliant.

        But.

        Before anyone tries this, Jo, what are the likely consequences of this being taken for real.

        ?

        KK

        52

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Mods?
          [Yes thank you] ED

          32

        • #
          Dave

          Add seafood to your diet Hatter.

          Oh! Wait Wuhan is a seafood market.

          Seafood is full of iodine!

          Well that worked out well for your VIRUS ADVICE!

          Cut down on your beer intake Hatter!

          43

          • #
            Graeme Bird

            A bit of a stretch there hey Davie? Iodine is not helpful because some folks think the outbreak came from a seafood market. Thats a bit of a leap feller. Hatband didn’t say that I did. I also say you want some selenium. You want a stash of liposomal vitamin C. Probably a bottle of silver colloids will be helpful. And you might want your bed on an incline.

            25

          • #
            hatband

            A Boozer is a loser*, Dave.

            But you already knew that.

            * Hat tip/Broadway Billy Rose

            02

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Go follow GBs Iodine advice.

          But maybe check with your doctor first.

          20

        • #

          What do you mean Keith? Are you worried readers here might drink beer and iodine or go catch Lyme as a preventative measure because a couple of people mentioned it as a unsubstantiated rumour?

          I mean seriously…

          Indeed, perhaps there is an advantage in suffering the dreaded Lyme. The killer point in Corona Virus appears to be an out of control immune reaction — a cascade. It may be (though I have no idea how anyone would know this yet) that having Lyme suppressed that. Why not discuss it?

          20

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            The original comment:

            http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/corona-virus-and-those-exponential-curves/#comment-2267735

            seems to have been snipped to remove the obviously dangerous recommendation to drink iodine without the beer.

            Drinking straight iodine is I believe dangerous and best not mentioned on the blog.

            As to the other issues, lyme disease, I made no reference to them, it was only the drinking iodine advice.

            Had some trusting person drunk iodine the outcome may have been tragic.

            Apparently the mods agreed.

            01

            • #
              hatband

              This is dishonest.

              You can only buy Iodine at the Chemist, whether Lugol’s Iodine or Elemental Iodine,

              he will ask you the purpose before he sells it to you, and explain the risks.

              If you had ever bought Iodine, you would know this.

              In my opinion, you are also Concern Trolling, and your real intent is to shout

              Graeme Bird down whenever he makes a comment.

              00

            • #
              Graeme Bird

              Hatband is right Keith. Take down. Shake down. You are busted. I’ve not seen pure iodine except in crystal form. I haven’t even seen these since the 1970′s. Clearly I’m not lobbing iodine crystals into beer. If you had wanted to know how to avoid an overdose you would have asked. Plus you were tagging me for two days prior to calling for moderators.

              00

  • #
    Rocket Rod

    You know, this whole thing reeks as the equivalent of the climate catastrophe nonsense. Endless speculation with little hard data, graph extrapolation fear mongering, MSM beatup as per usual, death figures that are insignificant relative to those from other genuinely serious disease outbreaks or as percentages of population.
    How many people even read the 3M info on the N95 mask before buying ? Why not an N100 or full fask mask?
    Didn’t know the coronavirus can enter the body around the edges of the imperfectly sealing N95? Didn’t know it can also enter via the eyes,ears and even your bottom?
    No…on the scale of things this is just another overhyped nothingburger that will burn itself out in 4-6 months.
    I’m not going to do anything different.

    80

    • #
      Richard

      Perhaps, or perhaps not. Your idea that it is a nothing burger is itself nothing but mere speculation about the future. It seems to be based on nothing more than the boy cried wolf way of looking at things. Maybe the boy has cried wolf again when no wolf exists, but into what is going on in China, it doesn’t look like no wolf to me.

      30

    • #

      You mean like…

      From the Producers of “Hotworld”, “Greta of Arc” and “Bushfire!” and the director of “SARS: The Outbreak” and “Roadsters in Space” comes…”Coronavirus”!

      After last October’s exciting pilot episode called “Event 201″, this is certainly not a let-down. Though I did think the Brazil setting was more glamorous than Wuhan. On the other hand, bats have more yuck factor than pigs.

      Maybe if I run my TV round the clock I’ll know more and be kept safer. In the car I’ll run the radio all the time. You never know when a vaccine could become available or when an infected backpacker could be admitted to St Vinnies.

      40

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      A friend commented that they would like to see figures for other common things like influenza.

      How does coronavirus compare.

      50

    • #

      I just had a comment land in the naughty bin. Without repeating it here, I’ll just say it was a response somewhat in agreement with Rocket Rod.

      Before things go any further, here’s a question for the many who now believe, like me, that the now hopelessly centralised and corporatised media are a common enemy…

      How do we break their power if they can stampede us at will? I agree that all threats to life and health, suspicious or otherwise, need monitoring. But how much coverage of the present virus outbreak (and of the recent fires) is monitoring and how much of it is stampeding? And I mean stampeding by that refuse media which is the common enemy of mankind.

      90

      • #
        Serp

        A very deep conundrum you pose mosomoso in writing “How do we break their power if they can stampede us at will?” The stampede has become the tool of choice for the globalist saboteurs. Most recently Australians were stampeded into SSM at record speed. Deep vexation at the populace’s recalcitrance against being stampeded on carbon tax is what we are really hearing from the Blackrock & Goldman Sachs cohort when it deprecates the manifest value of world coal reserves. Alas, no honest broker can be heard.

        20

      • #
        hatband

        It all comes back to Bad Information.

        What causes Disease?

        Pasteur said Germs, Bechamp said ”The Terrain is everything, the Germ nothing.”

        Pasteur won, Bechamp is forgotten, yet Bechamp was the one talking sense, since he was saying

        what everybody once knew, viz:

        Sick people keep on getting sick, and Healthy people don’t.

        00

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    From Washington State;
    It’s been 12 days since the Snohomish County man in his 30s was confirmed to have coronavirus.
    Dr. Jay Cook with Providence Medical Center says . . . message for the public is that doctors are successfully treating the first confirmed case of coronavirus in the United States.
    Link to KOMO News

    60

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    I haven’t been concerned about the coronavirus so far, but I accidentally found a video from Ben Cavanagh (not sure of the spelling, there are many Cavanagh variations), where he goes shopping in Ruhan? (sic spelling).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luztqxUBvZo

    The Chinese are taking this far more seriously that I thought. I’ve never seen anything like this before.

    20

    • #
      hatband

      The Chinese are even more conformist than we are.

      Stuff like The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution culled all the rebels.

      Anyway, it must be killing Retail in the State Capitals where all the Chinese live and shop.

      02

  • #
    Another Ian


    Some serious disinformation and conspiracy theories about the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. ”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/some-serious-disinformation-and-conspiracy-theories-about-the-2019-novel-coronavirus.html

    10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Chinese Censorship Goes Global: Facebook Agrees to Delete Corona Virus Posts Flagged by China”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/31/chinese-censorship-goes-global-facebook-agrees-to-delete-corona-virus-posts-flagged-by-china/

    20

  • #
    WXcycles

    Australia to refuse entry to non-citizens arriving from China due to coronavirus

    The Australian government on Saturday said it would bar non-citizens arriving from China from entering the country under new measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus epidemic.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison said only “Australian citizens, Australian residents, dependents, legal guardians or spouses” would be permitted into the country from China from Saturday.

    “The arrangements are being put in place through our border authorities to ensure that that can be actioned,” he added. “Those that do return will be required to go into self-isolation for 14 days.”

    Australia’s foreign ministry also updated its travel advice for China to “do not travel”.

    Last Update: Saturday, 1 February 2020 KSA 12:06 – GMT 09:06

    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2020/02/01/Australia-to-refuse-entry-to-non-citizens-arriving-from-China-due-to-coronavirus.html

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    Mikehig

    Many articles have mentioned the problems of tracking people who have been on flights which turn out to have carried one or more infected person. One of the factors which must increase the chance of cross-infection on such flights is the fact that much of the cabin air is recycled. Apart from the current problems, there are many anecdotes about folk picking up bugs and becoming ill after taking a flight.
    Wouldn’t it make sense to mandate the incorporate some form of disinfection into the cabin ventilation systems? A dose of UV would be my first suggestion as it kills most things.

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      Annie

      I’m pretty sure our son, an A380 captain, said that there is quite a large proportion of fresh air intake into the aircraft. Having said that, cabins can be quite stuffy and often overheated. Last April I came home with a ghastly gastro, the like of which I haven’t suffered in 30 or 40 years. I put that down to unwisely eating part of a salad; I generally avoid salads not fully prepared by me. I broke my rule on that occasion.

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    nb

    This is a useful article summarising one trajectory of understanding in relation to this virus. Is it correct? Who knows, but it is written by someone smart and is well reasoned. At this point, though, of course, it is just an educated speculation:
    http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=8566
    Three reasons to believe the Wuhan virus is a bioweapon
    Posted on 2020-02-01 by esr

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    cedarhill

    The world average death rates of respiratory illness caused by seasonal viruses (rhinovirus, coronavirus and influensavirus) are about 2% based on any governments figures.

    The honest, non-hysterical governments rate exposure/death at “very low” until more information is known. They do not rate it “hysterical, time to panic, put all Asians in a cage” Hot Zone Ebola-gonna-die rating lots and lots of folks seem to report. It’s the nature of the modern world highlighting our Fear Anything Culture.

    As a suggestion, if we’re going to quarantine folks, why not target quarantine the elderly and the infant populations…even put them in clean, negative air pressure facilities. After all, if they get exposed, a much greater percent of them will die. They do each and every year so shouldn’t we isolate them until this years respiratory viruses run their course? Maybe put them on the cruise ships and just keep them out to sea. Might even be cheaper.

    And get a grip.
    Year after year new respiratory strains pop up. They run through the world populations with what might be called “standard killing rates” where Western nations have about 0.5% death rate compared to third world and nations with poor health care systems, like China. If the Chinese rate is indeed about 2.0% then the rate in nearly all Western nations will be (drum roll) close to zero. Compare to the 2003 SARS. Not one US SARS death during that typcial hysteria period.

    One may say that it’s good to try to isolate the emerging strains as part of the precautionary principle applied to viruses. I’m OK with that but sans the hysteria. But if the Wu-Wu virus was really, really contagious like some of the other respiratory viruses, no one in their right mind should believe that all those “exposed” would not have spread it to the extent we’d have multiple deaths today in the West. After all, Wu-Wu has been kicking around China for a few months now. And the airplanes, trains, etc., were not shut down in November 2019 were they? Go count how many flights in and out of China since the first case of Wu virus was discovered by the Chinese (or allowed to be reported).

    A final note on China. They’ve used the Wu virus to virtually halt the spread of all dissenting voices through China. You may note that even Hong Kong has been isolated as well as other cities that were voicing displeasure either by supporting Hong Kong or protesting the economy, etc. To paraphrase what the former mayor of Chicago famously said “Let no Wu-Wu virus go to waste” to further his agenda. The Wu virus may have, indeed, been an act of nature, but it’s certainly great for controlling a population. Fear does that and the Chinese government, as all socialist governments know, are experts at instilling and stoking fear to remain in power.

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      Richard

      The death rate from this is higher than your average. Also, your closing remark; how does put the communist regime in a stronger position? It doesn’t. It makes them weaker.

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        cedarhill

        The figures from the reports this AM from China worked out to 2.1% death rate. Even at 2.6% death rate that’s unremarkable for average death rates for respiratory viruses world wide.
        Tonight, reports are that 7 (seven) people are confirmed to be infected in the US from this particular strain. That works out to 0.15 deaths by the end of next week or so. Mostly, wash your hands and don’t grow old is the best method to avoid catching on of these respiratory viruses.

        As to China. You may have missed the fact that dissent was spreading. For example, the Hong Kong dissent had been spreading outside of Hong Kong and contaminating other cities. You also may have missed how totalitarian governments deal with dissent — isolate and eliminate before it becomes a wild fire that’s uncontrollable. The unrest is in the neighborhood of millions compared to the thousands at Tiananmen when the hammer dropped. With the current hysteria, the Chinese government simply declares public health menace and the troops will enforce isolating the Chinese government names. Thus, in simple terms, the strategy to contain a pathogen is the same strategy to contain dissent. I wouldn’t even be surprised is some of the identified ringleaders may fall ill of the virus and be added to the toll. It’s the socialist way, after all.

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    AP

    Thanks Jo. Excellent post. I don’t know if anyone has looked to buy some n95 masks over the past week but they are totally sold out. A box of 50 is going on ebay for $800.

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      John F. Hultquist

      We have food and water at home, 2 weeks+ worth, and in a “Go-Bag.” A Go-Bag includes a first-aid kit, but is intended for at least 3 days of survival per person.
      Masks are there, also.

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        Rick

        I store a lot of food but it has nothing to do with survival. In that instance I depend on a full tank of gasoline, clothing suitable to my local climate (which can be damn cold), and lots of drinking water. Takes a long time to starve someone to death and I likely have enough reserve around my waist to last for months.

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    graham dunton

    This was posted in Michael Smith news..
    Eductional
    Medical lecture from a pulmonologist This video illustrates how viruses can cause pneumonia or widespread lung inflammation resulting in ARDS. Includes evidenced-based ARDS treatment breakthrough strategies: Low tidal volume ventilation, paralysis, and prone positioning.

    https://www.medcram.com
    https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ?t=17

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    Graeme Bird

    I like what people have been saying about vitamin D. Because these viruses tend to roll out geographically as if they were vitamin D deficiency diseases. There is another phenomenon where the virus isn’t as much of a killer outside of China as it is inside. China is still a bit of a poor country really. But still part of that might be to do with selenium deficiency in some areas. Vitamin D is fat soluble. You can build up your levels over time. Vitamin D sourced within Australia is next to useless. 1000 international units is almost nothing. Barely worth buying. You want to build your vitamin D level ahead of time. Whereas vitamin D megadoses may still be useful after you are sick, but still you want those levels high before you get sick.

    With the iodine, I am used to taking a lot. I’ve heard that people can overdose. [Snip we are not able to offer this kind of advice]ED I don’t worry about it. But if there is a concern with overdosing thats how you would do it. The idea is for everyone to get prepared in advance. Then those of us with lung difficulties will get the hospital attention needed. But if everyone is a little flippant and the hospitals get overwhelmed then people who really should not die could die, being as they won’t have the attention to keep them breathing well during the crisis. Now that the borders are closed I don’t think we will be overwhelmed. But still if you have a job and a bit of spare money you should get prepared just so the medical attention is there for people who get in trouble.

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    Graeme Bird

    Just a minor thought. This virus is killing people by attacking the lungs. Well you know. China has done amazing things in the last 40 years. With what amounts to a social credit system. But China is not yet known for its pristine clean air. So while I still may have a pre-existing lung vulnerability, given my work history, most of the rest of you won’t have that. So for that reason if the medical system is not overwhelmed, the death rate for people outside of China and other poor countries could stay very low. Perhaps close to zero. This infectious disease could be more infectious in China on the basis that most Chinese could have pre-existing lung problems.

    At this very early stage they are talking about something they call an RO of 4. This RO means that the claim is that one person infects four others. This has to flatten some or we will all have it by May. The same sources are saying that the RO for normal flu is something like 1. 28 So you know you see reasons for grave concern, you see reasons why it might be a big beatup, you see reasons why it could be a biological attack and you also see reasons, now that the government has taken decisive action, for this thing to burn out and not be too much of a problem.

    But I think all the employed people should start gearing up for this thing anyway. Because the sort of suggestions being made are their own reward. There is no downside to what we are saying here:

    Having high vitamin D levels in the winter makes you healthier and happier. Its probably about time you had some selenium anyway. You may have forgotten about selenium for a decade or more. If you have high Iodine you are less susceptible to cancer and iodine tends to reduce your pathogen load completely independent of what the pathogen is. And its a good thing to have liposomal vitamin C on hand for if someone gets sick, no matter what the sickness is. Plus intermittently taking the oral stuff if you are not sure you have gotten enough. To prepare is going to be good for you anyway.

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      hatband

      Just a minor thought. This virus is killing people by attacking the lungs

      I’ve been told that Lung diseases [Bronchiectasis] not connected to

      ingestion of particulate matter, is caused by sticky layers of Toxic waste blocking the ability of

      the Large Bowel to adsorb toxins from the bloodstream through the Bowel wall.

      The Lungs then become the only avenue of excretion of this matter, with accompanying disease.

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    Rick

    Seems a little early to panic. less than 300 deaths with about 10000 officially infected does not seem scary. There has probably been three or four times that many actually infected who only showed mild symptoms if any. Something like the panic over a degree of climate warming which probably has not caused any direct deaths and may have saved a lot of lives otherwise lost to cold.

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    John

    That Simpsons didn’t predict the corona virus. It was the “Osaka flu” (from japan). Someone’s just doctored it to make it corona virus.

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