It says something about the mortality rate of Covid19, and also about the burden on the healthcare sector
According to the CDC, there have been 103,643 cases of Covid-19 in US Healthcare workers of which 543 have died. That makes the death rate per infection a hefty 0.5% among these working age people. Obviously some of these people have co-morbidities, but would be under the retirement age.
We would hope US Healthcare workers are reasonably well tested. They may have a higher death rate because they are subject to a higher viral load and working under long hours in a stressful situation. But they also (presumably) wear PPE and are trained to use it.
An Amnesty International report estimates at least 3,000 health care workers have passed away around the world, with the highest tally from Russia (545) and the UK (540).
Elsewhere, the countries with the highest numbers of health worker deaths are USA (507), Brazil (351), Mexico (248), Italy (188), Egypt (111), Iran (91), Ecuador (82) and Spain (63).
People on the frontline must also die of the flu, but the number is small enough that there don’t appear to be lists in memorium. Indeed, papers on occupational deaths of Health Care Workers don’t even mention influenza. About half are likely vaccinated.
Who would want to work like this for months?
It’s easy to assume pandemic decisions play off economic costs against the death tally, but it’s much bigger than that.
While lockdowns are unbearable for some businesses, roaming viruses are unbearable for the health care industry. There is a burden that makes “suppression” unsustainable. It’s not just the medico’s health, but the threat they may post to loved ones. Doctors are writing up wills just in case, and sending their toddler age children to grandparents for extended stays. I’ve spoken to retired doctors who are concerned about being called up if an outbreak stretches medical services. In March, I talked to medical personnel who were having discussions about whether it would be ethical to retire early — they were torn, juggling what they owe patients with what they owe their family. People with high risk partners were living in different parts of their own homes. Many were quietly envious of home lockdowns, commenting that the safety of that sounded appealing.
The only situation that solves both problems at once is “Elimination”. Happy doctors. Happy businesses.
Hundreds of doctors and nurses at Melbourne hospitals have contracted COVID-19 or been quarantined …
“As a frontline doctor in Victoria’s fight against the virus, my view is that the rate of health care worker infection is unsustainable,” quarantined Melbourne doctor Aaron Bloch…
Suppression has failed because it underestimates this virus, it overestimates our ability to control it, and it fundamentally misunderstands human nature.
We escaped the initial feared tsunami, but do not underestimate the ongoing physical and emotional toll. Many of us have not had a good night’s sleep in a long time.
***
There are a quarter of a million new infections around the world today, and a new study with headlines that claim to have found six different “types” of covid with six clusters of symptoms. These don’t appear to be different viral mutations, so are likely the same virus causing different clusters of symptoms. But that helps identify the higher risk patients earlier. Hope you don’t get the abdominal pain kind with confusion which appears to be the worst sort.
The Prime Minister, who has conceded the lockdown of Greater Melbourne was necessary given the size of the outbreaks, warned that any pivot to an elimination strategy would double unemployment.
Suppression sounds like a management plan but means rolling waves of infection and isolation, with outbreaks of chaos and a constant higher level of fear and avoidance. This does not seem like a jobs creation machine.
Would we prefer one lockdown or three?
1. The hospitalization rate means hospitals will be overwhelmed within weeks (see Victoria). Therefore repeat lockdowns are inevitable.
2. It’s hard to protect the vulnerable when half the population is at risk. Almost one fifth of the Australian population is over 60 years old. One third of Australians have some form of high blood pressure. 67% are overweight or obese. Then there are cancer patients, asthmatics, people living with transplants and people with cardiac disease. Even if they all overlap, that’s a lot of people with co-morbities who won’t be spending much money on travel and restaurants while they hide from the virus. Protecting the vulnerable might be its own economy wrecker.
3. We lose access to hospitals during the waves. How much is it worth living in a community that has access to cancer care, elective surgery, stuff like that? What’s the cost of that burden?
4. The burden on the healthcare profession. Doctors and nurses are getting sick and some are dying from Covid-19, possibly from being exposed to high viral loads and working under pressure or with inadequate PPE. Some are living apart from their families, or in the basement, so they don’t infect loved ones if they bring germs home. Others are wondering if they should retire, and whether it’s fair on their family to keep working.
Suppression is the losers game. One rogue superspreader can infect 100, and suddenly it’s lockdown time again. Living with the virus means the constant threat of a major outbreak and the certainty of morbidity, mortality and lockdowns. It means we risk losing our hospitals for weeks or months on end, we can’t do large events. We can’t visit grandparents, and about half the population needs to hide away, as do those with high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer and transplants.
Eradicating Eliminating* the virus means life as normal except for strong borders and quarantine and lots of testing. People can use hospitals, restaurants, and visit their old folks.
For some reason, Morrison is aiming instead for rolling outbreaks and repeat lockdowns.
Australia was close to eradicating the virus from the nation:
There has been (or was) no community transmission across most of Australia for two to three months. Though that may be about to change as the states open borders just in time to catch the virus from Victoria. If it continues to spread in Sydney, the ACT is a sitting duck even though it might notch up 100 winning days without community spread. But the ACT is only a few hours away from one invisible superspreader from Sydney.
Shame it may unravel in the next week. But it didn’t have to. It was only inept management in Victoria that put the gains of the first lockdown at risk. The states of Australia paid their dues in the late Indian-summer of Vitamin D days and nearly won the battle. Four states and two territories were as good as done. Even NSW managed to notch up 20 covid free days in a row, the day before yesterday (that’s over now) . Even Victoria was scoring 4 days of no new community cases in a row, and that was late April.
This is living with the virus in Victoria
In Victoria there are 2,500 active cases of Covid19/CCPflu, and there are 935 cases with no known contact source. There are 122 in hospital, 31 in ICU which includes five people in their 40’s, six in their fifties, and eight in their sixties. Since July 5 there have been nine deaths, which is bound to rise as it lags infections. About two-thirds in the ICU are on ventilators. Currently 150 healthcare workers are infected.
Victorian hospitals are struggling with the load already, and half of all urgent elective surgery is being delayed in public hospitals. About a quarter of urgent elective surgery is being put off even in private hospitals in Melbourne.
Before the pandemic Victoria had 476 ICU beds. Currently there are 1,000 ICU beds available and ready to go for Covid patients.
What happens next in Australia depends a lot on what happens in NSW.
Mr Preus said he had installed his household solar PV system to save money and help the environment, but was now questioning his investment.
“We’ll never, ever in our lifetime recoup our investment, the return is just not there.”
“People will just disconnect them, and tell them to get stuffed, that’s what I would do,” he said.
They’ve been sold a lemon: misled into believing the energy the panels made was useful and economic. Instead solar owners without batteries can only provide excess energy no one needs at lunchtime. Lunchtime voltages are surging and their inverters are tripping off anyhow. And they themselves need to be hooked up to the grid to get the electro-juice they want, most hours of the day.
Finally there is some attempt to fix the Soviet-level planning disaster. People are just starting to notice that the poor are paying for the networks to supply the rich.
But the call to charge them comes from welfare groups:
As I predicted, borders need to close. Places that don’t close the state border end up putting a border around every single home. It’s the same all over the world. But no one seems to have noticed how spectacular this backflip is.
“I’ve sued the federal government a number of times over the years. I do not believe it’s going to come to that on this,” Cuomo said. “This would be a declaration of war on states, a federal declaration of war.“
Right now there are 22 US states which could threaten to sue Cuomo for the infections New Yorkers gave them.
It was weapons grade bluster on March 28, 2020, but which media outlets and creatures from the Swamp supported Donald Trump, and pulled up Cuomo for statements like this?
“Then we would be Wuhan, China, and that wouldn’t make any sense,” [Cuomo] said, adding that this [a two week quarantine] would cause the stock market to crash in a way that would make it impossible for the US economy to “recover for months, if not years”.
“You would paralyse the financial sector,” he said.
How much healthier the financial sector must look now that the 52,000 New York infections have become three and a half million infections across the US?
So finally, hypocritically, but sensibly, Cuomo has started closing borders; though the enforcement is too weak, and leaks are already occurring. Australia tried this, and it didn’t work. The NY quarantine will get tougher.
In other handy hints from Downunder we suggest using security guards that don’t sleep with their subjects.
July 13: The move is part of the state’s effort to try to enforce its 14-day quarantine requirements for travelers from 22 states who, as of Tuesday, are under a travel advisory because of rising numbers of people testing positive for the coronavirus in their states.
“We can’t be in a situation where we have people coming from other states in the country bringing the virus again,” Cuomo said during a press conference. “It is that simple.”
Travelers who leave an airport in New York state without filling out a form could face a $2,000 fine and be required to attend a hearing and complete a mandatory quarantine.
It’s not clear how NY officials will be able to enforce the 14 day self isolation required of travellers who fill in the forms.
It’s the same pattern all over the world
Borders are the bargain tools to starve viruses. Only arrogantly rich nations can pretend they don’t need them. But even they succumb after the first wave of rampant RNA.
As usual, it’s all so selfish. Infected states want to keep borders open, sharing deadly germs. The same states suddenly change their minds when the places-they-infected start to send infections back. It happened with China, with New South Wales, and now it’s happened with New York.
How different the world looks when your home has survived the first spike.
How naive all the other states look for letting the virus fly in.
The Swamp has been either incompetent or sabotaging Trump. Borders should be the first tool (after masks) not the last.
If the state and federal lines had been shut in March, with masks and Vitamin D, with HCQ and mass testing, the US might have been down to just a couple of hundred new cases a day like Italy Some states would be completely free. Trump would have been seen as a hero. He’d be unstoppable.
A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases.
Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.
From the paper:
We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability.
Internal variability is the approved term, but if you say natural variability instead, we’ll have to arrest you.
Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions.
Warming. Cooling. Whatever. It’s all success.
If only climate scientists had evidence — they wouldn’t need to cling to random noise of storms, fires and floods.
Mass gatherings linked to mass outbreaks. Who could have seen that coming?
But many details are missing or unknown. They’re not saying that the protest caused the megacluster, or whether the protestors live in the towers, or whether the virus spread from the family outbreak to the tower or the other way.
We do know that four weeks after the BLM rally the state was in deep trouble.
Victorian health authorities have confirmed a link between two COVID-19 cases in people who attended the Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne’s CBD just over a month ago, and the cluster of at least 242 cases in public housing towers in the city’s inner northwest.
But the Department of Health and Human Services has refused to say whether members of the cluster, which includes the protest attendees, live in the public housing towers.
One H&M worker was at the rally and later tested positive and that three other H&M workers eventually tested positive. The H&M cluster become “North Melbourne family cluster” which grew to 30 cases. Three weeks after the rally the North Melbourne Tower was confirmed as a major hotspot, and has so far accrued 242 cases.
I predicted that if the rally caused an outbreak it could take a month to show. Young protestors had to go home, get sick, spread it to their families, and then other generations would be noticed in hospital cases.
The Victorian cluster slows (again)
Lockdowns work. Cases were doubling every four days or so last week. If the exponential growth had not slowed, case numbers might now be increasing by 500 a day. If only Daniel Andrews, and most of academia and the media had been brave enough to point out the reckless selfishness of protestors seeking personal glory. Victoria was the only state in Australia that didn’t push back at the rally organizers. The law was not enforced. The Government cowered in fear at the threat of being called racists. No one in power or the Love-media wants to blame the rally, because that shows they should have spoken against the rally. Thus cowardice become complicity.
In the BLM political party, hardly any lives matter
Coronavirus cluster plateaus. Lockdowns work, Victoria Australia.
In future, those wishing to organize mass face-to-face protests during pandemics need to wait for weeks until it’s not illegal, or buy insurance that covers the costs of post-protest lockdowns, hospital care, loss of businesses, jobs and compensation for deaths. What company would cover those billion dollar losses?
The BLM rally was not the sole cause of the Victorian outbreak, but how many subsequent breaches of social distancing were “linked” to the hypocrisy of soft support for the BLM rally?
Just shut those borders. The pain in NSW could have been so easily avoided
Coronavirus tentacles with small yellow virus particles attached.
So once a virus is inside it can not only hijack the cell to make more viruses (the little yellow prickly balls in the photo) it also forces the cell to make all these hairy tentacles to push the viruses into neighboring cells. Apart from being a neat gee-whiz moment in molecular construction, this is worth knowing because it gives us more targets to aim for. (More moving parts to throw spanners at).
To that end, the team found 87 drugs that are already either FDA approved or in clinical trials that might help. And 7 of them have already shown they can inhibit the virus in both human and monkey cells.
There are some major molecular engineering battles going on
Coronaviruses are larger RNA viruses than most, so that gives the virus more tools to work with. All up we know that there are 27 SARS Cov2 proteins which are interacting with as many as 332 human proteins. In the new study the researchers studied all the human proteins that appear to be phosphorylated during infections. The proteins that slap on the phosphate groups (which phosphorylates the proteins) are called kinases. Marking a protein this way activates or deactivates the protein. It’s used in many intracellular pathways, and kinases are master switchboard controllers. So the virus is going straight to the top of the management team in a hostile takeover.
The research team found that nearly 10% of all the 500 kinases they studied were behaving differently, especially the Casein Kinase II (CK2) kinase. This gives us some idea of what kind of intracellular octopus we are dealing with.
Filopodia on Virally Infected Cells Newly Discovered Through Advanced Imaging
Interestingly, while studying the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on CK2, high resolution imaging of virally infected cells produced by the NIH/NIAID/Rocky Mountain Laboratories and University of Freiburg revealed actin-rich filopodia containing viral proteins. Human CK2 and the viral N protein were found co-localized within the filopodia, suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 hijacks CK2 and co-opts it into creating these tentacle-like protrusions that poke holes in their neighboring cells.
Conversely, other viruses including vaccinia, Ebola and Marburg take over the host cell cytoskeleton to promote egress and rapid cell-to-cell spread. However, in SARS-CoV-2 infected cells, the filopodia exhibit longer tentacles and branches, enabling more aggressive transmission than some other viral infections.
Another kinase called the p38 MAPK which may be a zinger of a target since it’s involved in activating the inflammatory cytokines (the interleukin-6 and other messengers). So we may be able to throw anti- p38/MAPK drugs at the virus which appear to both switch off the deadly inflammatory cascade as well as slow virus replication by some unknown means.
The p38/MAPK pathway responds to and controls production of potentially harmful pro-inflammatory cytokines. Several pathogenic viral infections induce a p38/MAPK signaling state that exhibits uncontrolled positive feedback regulation, leading to excessive inflammation associated with severe disease. Inhibition of p38/MAPK signaling suppressed the overproduction of inflammatory cytokines induced by several viral infections, including SARS-CoV, Dengue virus, and influenza A virus, improving survival in mice (Fu et al., 2014; Growcott et al., 2018; Jimenez-Guardeño et al., 2014). However, p38/MAPK inhibition did not directly impair the virus in these cases but, instead, the host’s immune response to the infection. In contrast, during SARS-CoV-2 infection, p38/MAPK inhibition suppressed cytokine production and impaired viral replication by a still unknown mechanism, suggesting that p38/MAPK inhibition may target multiple mechanisms related to COVID-19 pathogenesis.
Of course, the study was done in monkey cells so this may or may not be the same in human cells. And drugs that stop these kinases may have side effects, and even if they work, the virus may still be able to spread through other means. But if we even find one good spanner to toss in here, it may slow the spread of the virus, which buys time for our immune system to fight back and reduces the amount of virus a victim may shed. It also should reduce the amount of damage the virus can cause.
Possibly if the virus mutates to avoid triggering the deadly immune cascade it may become nicer and stop causing such a severe disease. If we throw drugs at it that lock down this mechanism we will be in effect selecting for a virus that doesn’t need to use it.
Coronavirus may leave a trail of benefits in its wake. Who knew that there were so many cheap antivirals around? Will people get fed up with the limited choices on offer next time there is a quarantine.
While newspapers in Australia were pretty keen to share the discovery of an antiviral role for HCQ, not so many were interested in the followup studies.
Ivermectin, like hydroxychloroquine is a kind of superdrug — in the sense of being in worldwide mass use. Some 3.7 billion doses are estimated to have been given since its approval. It has been called the Japanese Wonder Drug. It’s the farm drench, a head lice treatment, and works against worm, mites and ticks too.
It was estimated to reduce viral loads in vitro massively but most people didn’t think it would work at lower safe doses. Then Bangladeshi doctors claim it was “astounding”. Last month US tests suggest that it reduced deaths by 40%. (Rajter)
These are all every priminary results. More studies are promised for Ivermectin. Especially in Peru, where a grassroots movement of Doctors has ensured it will be used.
This study was published in medRxiv and was led by Dr Jean-Jacques Rajter a physician at Broward Health Medical Center. The study assessed 280 coronavirus patients over the age of 18, with 173 being treated with the drug and 107 having standard care for the virus. The study found that overall mortality in those who took the treatment was 15% compared to those who did not take it, who had a 25% mortality rate. This would equate to a 40% drop overall.
The findings reported in Medrxiv, “ICON (Ivermectin in COVID-19) Study: Use of Ivermectin Is Associated With Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19,” said that patients who took part in the trial were given a single dose of the anti-parasitic medication, and some received a second dose a week later.
The dose given the COVID-19 patients was the same as the FDA-approved dose used to treat patients with intestinal parasites.
Perhaps the study’s most impressive finding: The effect the drug had on 75 sick COVID-19 patients who were suffering from “severe pulmonary disease” – a very high-risk group.
Of patients in that group who did not receive ivermectin, 81% died. Yet the mortality rate for patients with severe pulmonary disease who did receive ivermectin was 39 percent.
A long review of Ivermectin last month said that it had several possible mechanisms, and “several studies reported antiviral effects”:
Several studies reported antiviral effects of ivermectin on RNA viruses such as Zika, dengue, yellow fever, West Nile, Hendra, Newcastle, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, chikungunya, Semliki Forest, Sindbis, Avian influenza A, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, Human immunodeficiency virus type 1, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus . — Heiary et al (2020)
For years, people with the kind of high cholesterol linked to their genes, were told they could lower their cholesterol if they stopped eating things like butter, cream, eggs, cheese, chocolate, and even coconut oil.
A new study looked for evidence to justify that advice and couldn’t find any. They are, of course, not the first — even in the 1950s John Yudkin was already warning people about the dangers of sugar. But the vested interests and fat-police leapt into gear, and thus and verily a million low-fat products filled the shelves, most of them with added sugar.
“For the past 80 years, people with familial hypercholesterolemia have been told to lower their cholesterol with a low saturated fat diet,” said lead author David Diamond, professor and heart disease researcher at the University of South Florida. “Our study showed that a more ‘heart healthy’ diet is one low in sugar, not saturated fat.”
Familial hypercholesterolemia is a genetic disorder that causes people to have cholesterol levels 2-4 times higher than the average person. Organizations, including the American Heart Association, have suggested they avoid eating food from animal sources, such as meat, eggs and cheese, and to avoid coconut oil. An international team of experts on heart disease and diet, including five cardiologists, reviewed dietary guidelines for people with familial hypercholesterolemia. They say they couldn’t find any justification for health experts to recommend a low saturated fat diet.
Diamond and his co-authors say following a low-carb diet is most effective for people at increased risk of heart disease, such as those who are overweight, hypertensive and diabetic. Their findings are consistent with another paper recently published in the “Journal of the American College of Cardiology,” which provided strong evidence that food that raises blood sugar, such as bread, potatoes and sweets, should be minimized, rather than tropical oils and animal-based food.
Sugar (and most carbohydrates) push up blood levels of insulin. It’s an ancient hormone that goes right back through the evolutionary tree all the way to yeast, and in yeast it’s tightly involved with lifespan (for us too). It’s a key signaling molecule, but without combine-harvesters, yeast and all the animals in between, didn’t manage to overdose on carbs.
One day someone will write a book on how that consensus was busted. That would be interesting. Meanwhile hopefully, the cult of the expert will be viewed with even more suspicion.
80 years. Where were all the science communicators?
The hottest day ever recorded in Australia with modern official equipment was Jan 3rd, 1909 in Bourke where the temperature blistered at 51.7C (125F).
Yesterday the Honorable Craig Kelly MP trawled through historic archives looking for temperature records from a century ago to see if he could confirm that it really was 125F in Bourke that day, and whether it was almost that hot in Brewarrina too. Craig Kelly wants the record restored.
The site at Bourke is one of the oldest in Australia, starting in 1871. It’s also very influential because it was used to estimate the temperatures of vast remote areas around it. By 1909 there was already nearly 40 years of data at Bourke, and the Stevenson Screen had just been replaced so it was almost brand new. There was no airport tarmac either, so in 1909 the site was probably better than most modern sites are today. But the 1909 “hottest ever record” was deleted after an investigation in 1997 by Blair Trewin. It was written off as an error partly because it was recorded on a Sunday and the observer wasn’t normally at work. Supposedly a dedicated weather nerd wouldn’t pop in on a day off just because it was the hottest day of his lifetime. (Not when there were so many other exciting things to do in Bourke in 1909.)
Trewin argued that other surrrounding towns of Thargominda, Walgett and Coonamble were nearly 7 degrees C cooler than Bourke. But Brewarrina is closer and newspaper reports had the temperature there on that Sunday as 123F. But the BOM didn’t have official records for Brewarrina til 1911. So Craig Kelly took it up on himself to do the research the million-dollar-a-day BOM couldn’t do, and today he found the official records for Brewarrina, and lo, confirmed that the temperature there was 123F. So two different guys over 100 km apart recorded almost the same temperatures on the same day.
Despite the long history of the Bourke weather data, the good people of Bourke only hear about temperature records since the year 2000. Jennifer Marohasy found the son of one of the original weather observers in Bourke, and he’s frustrated that the careful work of his father is as good as forgotten. Mr Cole owns the local radio station but can’t broadcast the records his father observed because the BOM only supplies data to “weatherzone” from the year 2000.
The original handwritten log books were tossed in the trash and it’s only thanks to non-BOM dedication that they were rescued and saved from the dumpster.
If the day wasn’t digitized, does it exist?
Craig Kelly also uncovered the data for Whitecliffs, another town of the far outback in NSW. There in 1939 an observer recorded the second hottest Australian day (of the last 120 years) at 51.1°C (124°F).
That too is not officially acknowledged even though it was recorded in a Stevenson Screen. And the reason, Craig Kelly tells me, is because it hasn’t been digitized yet. Figure that! The greatest crisis is coming to destroy life on Earth but the BOM can’t find time to write up our old history. They get hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer funds and tell us the trends and records are accurate to a tenth of a degree, but they haven’t even bothered to manually go and fish out and type in the most extreme days as reported in newspapers all over the country.
Jennifer Marohasy, Craig Kelly and I all want to know — When with the BOM correct the record?
Brewarrina is the closest town to Bourke in outback NSW.
See the hand-written raw data in the photos as written up and explained by Jennifer Marohasy.
Hottest Day Ever in Australia Confirmed: Bourke 51.7°C, 3rd January 1909
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology deleted what was long regarded as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia – Bourke’s 125°F (51.7°C) on the 3rd January 1909. This record* was deleted, falsely claiming that this was likely some sort of ‘observational error’, as no other official weather stations recorded high temperatures on that day.
However, Craig Kelly MP has visited the Australian National Archive at Chester Hill in western Sydney to view very old meteorological observation books. It has taken Mr Kelly MP some months to track down this historical evidence. Through access to the archived book for the weather station at Brewarrina, which is the nearest official weather station to Bourke, it can now be confirmed that a temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) was recorded at Brewarrina for Sunday 3rd January 1909. This totally contradicts claims from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that only Bourke recorded an extraordinarily hot temperature on that day.
Brewarrina, Hottest Day in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, historic archive. NSW
Just today, Friday 10th July 2020, Mr Kelly MP obtained access to this record for Brewarrina, the closest official weather station to the official weather station at Bourke.
He has photographed the relevant page from the observations book, and it shows 123°F was recorded at 9am on the morning of Monday 4th January 1909 – published here for the first time. This was the highest temperature in the previous 24 hours and corroborates what must now be recognised as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia of 51.7°C (125°F) degrees at Bourke on the afternoon of Sunday 3rd January 1909.
…
Australia’s hottest day ever was recorded at Bourke in 1909
That the Bureau of Meteorology denies these record hot days is a travesty. Is it because these records contradict their belief in catastrophic human-caused global warming?
The temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) recorded back in 1909 which is more than 100 years ago, photographed by Mr Kelly today at the National Archives in Chester Hill, is almost equivalent to the current official hottest day ever for Australia of 50.7 degrees Celsius at Oodnadatta on 2nd January 1960. These are in fact only the fourth and third hottest days recorded in Australia, respectively.
Not only has Mr Kelly MP tracked-down the meteorological observations book for Brewarrina, but over the last week he has also uncovered that 51.1°C (124°F) was recorded at White Cliffs for Wednesday 11th January 1939. This is the second hottest ever!
The evidence, a photograph from the relevant page of the White Cliff’s meteorological observations book, is published here for the first time.
White Cliffs, NSW. Hottest Day in Australia, 1939. Bureau of Meteorology.
Until the efforts of Mr Kelly MP, this second hottest-ever record was hidden in undigitised archives.
It is only through the persistence of Mr Kelly to know the temperatures at all the official weather stations in the vicinity of Bourke that this and other hot days have been discovered.
If we are to be honest to our history, then the record hot day at Bourke of 51.7°C (125°F) must be re-instated, and further the very hot 50.6°C (123°F) recorded for Brewarrina on the same day must be entered into the official databases.
Also, the temperature of 51.1°C (124°F) recorded at White Cliffs on 12th January 1939 must be recognised as the second hottest ever.
For these temperatures to be denied by the Bureau because they occurred in the past, before catastrophic human-caused global warming is thought to have come into effect, is absurd.
At a time in world history when Australians are raising concerns about the Chinese communist party removing books from Libraries in Hong Kong, we should be equally concerned with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology removing temperature records from our history.
If global warming is indeed the greatest moral issue of our time, then every Australian regardless of their politics and their opinion on greenhouse gases and renewable energies, must be honest to history and these truths.
Skeptics have been living with “cancel culture” for years, but now, suddenly, nearly the whole Western world is.
Inside Cancel-Culture whole people and even statues are sliced out of public debate because of one breach of some optional movable rule. No matter how many years of experience or how great their achievements, one single “mistake” in the game of virtue signalling in any area means all their opinions on every topic are deemed unworthy.
Obviously, those that can’t persuade seek to cancel instead.
Here’s the brilliant Remy from late last year mocking journalists with twitter trawling fixations.
Imagine what would happen if an anchorman could say what they really thought?
Eyes are still on the Three Gorges Dam as a rare flooding event spreads across Asia. Bridges that have stood for 500 years have succumbed.
Pity the poor people of Wuhan, the flood waters released from the Three Gorges Dam have arrived. That dam and all upstream dams have opened the flood gates, and cities as far downstream as Wuhan are flooding.
Apparently the dam is so large and heavy it even ranks in discussions of seismic potential — namely that some people are concerned the weight of the water may trigger earthquakes.
The “word on the street” according to Gravitasis that Chinese people are wondering if the flooding water released from is convenient for the CCP government to wash away evidence from the Wu flu outbreak.
Watch the Gravitas vid (at the link) from 1:30 (before that it’s a revision of the virus).
“We want free and open debate, not speech codes or cancel culture”— Donald Trump
Greatest nation on Earth:
Two hundred and forty-four years ago in Philadelphia, the 56 signers of our Declaration of Independence pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor to boldly proclaim this eternal truth: that we are all made equal by God. (Applause.)
Thanks to the courage of those patriots of July 4th, 1776, the American Republic stands today as the greatest, most exceptional, and most virtuous nation in the history of the world.
Our workers, our factories have revolutionized industries and lifted millions into prosperity. Our artists, architects, and engineers have inspired the globe with transcendent works of beauty. American heroes defeated the Nazis, dethroned the fascists, toppled the communists, saved American values, upheld American principles, and chased down the terrorists to the very ends of the Earth. We are now in the process of defeating the radical left, the Marxists, the anarchists, the agitators, the looters, and people who, in many instances, have absolutely no clue what they are doing. (Applause.)
“The radical ideology attacking our country advances under the banner of Social Justice,” he said. “But in truth, it would demolish both justice and society. It would transform justice into an instrument of division and vengeance, and it would turn our free and inclusive society into a place of repression, domination, and exclusion.” That is as good as anything Friedrich Hayek said about that portmanteau instrument of intimidation and meritless virtue signaling.
We will not allow anyone to divide our citizens by race or color:
The whole of Melbourne is now in a six week lockdown again, but thankfully, most of regional Victoria isn’t. The freedom in regional Victoria is solely due to a “ring” around Melbourne.
Not only is the second peak bigger than the first one, but it’s all community spread this time. Fully 191 new cases of Covid19 were announced in Victoria today. Ominously, only 37 so far can be traced (so far), which means this is not just about spot testing in the nine high rise towers that are now locked down. So , no indoor sport, no gyms, or concerts, museums or zoos can open. No more dining in restaurants and given the disturbing number associated with schools, the start of Term 3 has been delayed by a week for years 1 – 10, and possibly longer. But fishing, boating, golf, and surfing are OK. It’s good to see the quarantines are evolving, recognising the minimal benefit of stopping dispersed outdoor activity.
For people overseas, the Australian style of lockdown permits people to move for work if they can’t stay home, and to shop for essentials and to exercise. Jobs are considered essential, but people are encouraged to work from home if they can.
UPDATE: There will be immense pain for businesses who only just set themselves up again, or workers who just got back to work. Hopefully we can find a way to share that burden fairly. Commiserations to all.
How fast the coronavirus can get out of hand. Victoria, Australia. (Click to enlarge). Graph, Guardian, Vic Health.
The Border Wars in Australia are suddenly over
Finally, borders are treated like the bargain option they should be. Both Scott Morrison and Glady Berijiklian (NSW Premier) had been demanding borders reopen all over the country, repeatedly saying there was no medical case for closing borders. That was until the Victorian outbreak suddenly grew to be larger than their own state’s last weekend, and then closed borders suddenly became very appealing.
Yesterday Dan Andrews (the Victorian Premier, in need of all the help he can get) was happy to provide cover for the hypocrisy of the other two NSW based leaders. He was the one who announced the border closure. But he’s not imposing or enforcing the state borders. NSW is.
…after a phone call between Mr Andrews, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Prime Minister Scott Morrison, …it was agreed the Victorian border with NSW would be closed as of [Tuesday] night.
“That closure will be enforced on the New South Wales side, so as not to be a drain on resources that are very much focused on fighting the virus right now across our State,” Mr Andrews said.
Mr Andrews confirmed the border closure was a “joint decision” and wouldn’t comment on who first raised it.
Closing borders should be the first and cheapest solution to stop or slow any infectious virus. Only a small part of the economy in most places depends on interstate holiday and conference travellers. Most of the economy can continue without them as long as there is no local spread and thus no local restrictions. But the freedom within the borders is only as good as the strength of “wall”. (And suddenly all the Australian leaders are nervously tightening their slightly leaky borders). Victoria is the reminder that only a strong border stands between any Australian town and this virus.
In a household lockdown the border is the fence around each house. It’s obviously (and always was) that national, state and regional borders are a bargain — no matter how expensive they are — rather than trying to do household lockdowns.
Clive Palmer (the coal mining sellout to Al Gore in 2014) is taking WA to the high court to get the state to open borders, and Scott Morrison and the Federal Government officially supported him, which looks fairly comical now.
Mark McGowan Premier of WA says: “It does not make sense for the federal government to be supporting a border closure between NSW and Victoria but on the other hand challenging Western Australia’s border in the High Court of Australia.
Scott Morrison, June 18th: …they [borders] should never have been closed in the first place.
He used the magical absence-of-evidence argument. Who noticed the dodge?
“That was never the medical expert advice that was given to National Cabinet. States have gone their own way,” he said.
Hopefully Morrison will now recognise the value of borders and stop pretending there is any medical excuse not to enforce them. For months now he’s been saying we’re keeping the international borders closed due to medical advice but demanded state borders were open for the same reason.
How many international leaders will be watching this and learning?
Some US states could stop the coming trainwreck if they just copied Australia. How many people in regional USA could lead normal safe lives if the big cities were ring-fenced? Why is the US still allowing viruses to fly in and fly around when they don’t have to?
Australian state borders include at least two “twin” cities which straddle a border. In this case, while most of regional Victoria is fine and free, the twin cities of Albury Wodonga have suspect cases (NSW) and new cases (Vic). Seems like it would be wise to lock and test those two pronto.
The Victorian government made four stupid mistakes, even as it imposed the toughest lockdown regime in Australia.
First, it didn’t supervise the quarantine hotels properly. It chose to use untrained security guards without even the most elementary common sense of having them supervised by police officers, soldiers or prison guards.
Second, it made no serious effort to stop the Black Lives Matter mass demonstrations, unlike other governments.
Third, Victoria was not as energetic in contact tracing as other jurisdictions.
And fourth, a state government that prides itself on its multicultural credentials was not effective in communicating the social-distancing message to several ethnic and religious minorities whose generally perfectly innocent cultural practices were prone to spreading the virus.
As I said, the BLM rallies may or may not have spread the virus, but they blew away the community compliance with isolation and restrictions. At least the other states in Australia tried to stop the rallies. In Victoria, Andrews just fined the leaders, but everyone else knew it was fine. How much did the BLM rallies matter? We don’t know.
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Shelves being cleared out in some Melbourne stores. Can’t hurt to stock up wherever you are.
For the record, two weeks ago I started restocking supplies even though there is no community spread here in WA. It’s better to keep the back ups, just in case. If bad news comes, we won’t contribute to the rush. If it doesn’t, I’m buying things we’ll use anyhow.
Rebecca Huntley proffers reassurance to the faithful fans of man-made weather. Why make sense when you can just weep your way through national energy policy?
It’s a soothing piece of public self-therapy, offering forgiveness to those, like her, that struggle to make sense in the first place. Having lost the debate on climate science, and being reduced to petty namecalling, Huntley’s job, apparently, is to distort what people think science is.
The science behind climate change has been proven correct to the highest degree of certainty the scientific method allows.
Why stop there? Climate change has been proven beyond the highest degree of certainty allowed. It’s gone right off the scale and into the supernatural. It’s a place where 16 year old sages prophesy the future and tell the world to stop floods with windmills.
If you weren’t confused about the definition of climate change, Huntley is here to make sure you are:
But climate change is more than just the science. It’s a social phenomenon
The last thing a prophetic cult needs is accurate language. People might spot how contradictory the arguments are.
Is she a social scientist or a God?
Then again, I’m a social scientist. I study people. I deal mostly in feelings, not facts. A joke I like to tell about myself during speeches is that I’m an expert in the opinions of people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
And we’d like to see her say that to Richard Lindzen or Roy Spencer.
How does she know all those skeptics don’t know what they are talking about?
Huntley is living the Dunning-Kruger-confirmation-dream:
Have a look at the must-watch 2018 Ted Talk by the meteorologist J Marshall Shepherd, on three kinds of bias that shape your worldview. The first, and probably the most obvious, is confirmation bias, namely that we zero in on evidence that supports what we already believe.
We can’t wait to hear Huntley describe the core scientific arguments of leading skeptics. Could we send her a pop-quiz?
Confirmation bias is even more pronounced in a world where we can use our social media to filter out information we don’t want to absorb and where we follow influencers who reinforce our existing beliefs.
The second bias is called Dunning-Kruger, which describes our human tendency to think we know more than we do as well as to underestimate what we don’t know. Again, I see this happen in focus groups all the time, when participants with no scientific credentials or training pick apart the science of climate change.
The third and final bias is cognitive dissonance. When people encounter actions or ideas they cannot reconcile psychologically with their own beliefs, they experience discomfort. They then try to resolve their discomfort by arguing away the new evidence.
Rebecca Hunter believes climate change has been proven correct to the highest degree of certainty. Her cognitive dissonance is so large, she’s argued away the entire science debate.
• This is an edited extract from How to Talk About Climate Change in a Way That Makes a Difference, by Rebecca Huntley (Murdoch Books, $32.99)
It’s a hard job, but someone’s got to play “expert” and convince the struggling believers that they don’t even need to pretend to be scientific anymore.
It says something about the mortality rate of Covid19, and also about the burden on the healthcare sector
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