By Jo Nova
Trump said he wanted Energy Dominance. And now the oil tankers are heading to fill up at the USA.
Compare the US to Australia. Downunder there is chaos due to fuel shortages, one in four international flights have been cancelled, and inflation figures have leapt, which may lead to higher interest rates. That in turn will likely force some families to sell their homes, and others to go out of business. These are the costs of bad energy planning. Plus, we’re going cap-in-hand to China to beg for fuel. Other Australians are holding off booking holidays in July, for fear that they won’t be able to pay for the petrol to get there, or the regional pump might run dry, which is also hurting the tourism industry. The chaos, it flows.
In response the the crisis, our government has just arranged for an extra 150 million liters of fuel to arrive which should keep us going for … almost another 24 hours.
If only we had explored for oil and kept a few refineries open?
Meanwhile, the USA, run by Orange-man-bad is setting records for the export of crude oil, diesel and gasoline.
The Energy Report: US Shatters Crude, Diesel, Gasoline Export Records
By Phil Flynn
In a striking display of America’s energy dominance, the United States has shattered export records for crude oil, diesel, and gasoline—delivering a powerful message on Persian Gulf Day as military options against Iran remain firmly on the table. This landmark achievement underscores the remarkable strength of U.S. production and refining capacity, even amid global tensions. It comes as Iran says we can expect a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on national Persian Gulf Day.
The US exported jaw-dropping 14,179 barrels a day of all petroleum products. That blew always last week’s record of 12,881 million barrels a day and was above the 10,645 [thousand] million barrels a day we exported a year ago to give perspective. What this means is that US is in a league of its own right now for total energy product exports. No one else is exporting anywhere near 14 mbpd.
This is why Trump can afford to keep Iran waiting — he has options which Europe and Australia don’t. And this works in his negotiations. The more desperate we are for fuel, the more options Trump has.
Most of the shouty commentariat judging the war don’t seem to realize that the oil production tables have turned.
OWID — The most recent figures from 2025 for the US are roughly 12,500TWh- 13,000TWh
REFERENCE
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
Australia consumes about 1.15 million barrels per day of oil products or about 160 million litres.
No problem; Albo will leap onto his RAAF plane (assuming we have some fuel left) and take off for a trip somewhere or other, with assurances that we have plenty of fuel.
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Pong is in China now, not to beg for extra fuel, but to try and have the Chinese honour existing contracts for avgas deliveries here.
These contracts were broken by China very quickly when Hormuz closed in order to serve its’ domestic markets. Avgas supply is now the constant spearpoint in Aus’ ribs.
Heavens – if the Chinese refineries won’t honour their contracts (and Aus would never indulge in sovereign risk itself, would it), Elbow may have to buy from West Texas ports. Oh, the shame …
400
Their ABC a few days ago quoted Ms Wong as saying:
“I can confirm the Chinese government is facilitating engagement with Australian businesses on jet fuel”.
So it’s far from being a done deal. Wong will likely state she has used formal and diplomatic language to make a request, but it will be seen by the Chinese as begging. We rely on China for 32% of our avgas supplies, I’m literally one of those Aussies waiting to see if I should book a holiday to North Queensland in July.
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‘ … but it will be seen by the Chinese as begging.’
Not at all, Australia has stuff that China needs, its quid pro quo.
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Yeah, but AnAl and Henny Penny are pretty much outright owned by China and don’t have the guts to say “play nice or we’ll tank your economy”.
And Australia can absolutely tank China’s economy at the moment, which is why the Chinese are busy trying to develop other sources of ore and coal that they completely control.
Australia’s economy would take a hit, but there are other customers, and when you consider that BHP and Rio between them control in excess of 80% of the world’s base metal production and Brazil’s Vale is currently a basket case, Australia has the big stick.
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‘… Australia has the big stick.’
We have leverage, but both sides agree that soft power is a better option than war.
China has been in strife since the collapse of the real estate market a few years ago and the US tariffs haven’t helped. There is a mass migration taking place, workers returning to their villages because there are no jobs to be had in the cities.
This might have a significant impact on China’s political culture.
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That’s right, Mr Wong reminded them that we need jet fuel for the Fifo flights to get workers to the mines and diesel to dig stuff up and transport it, and for farming ,they get the drift.
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el gordo
Jeez..where have you been hiding…tell us what we have ??????
52
Sorry JG, should been up not down. Totally with you. El G must have missed Wuflu !!!!
41
Iron, coal and bauxite.
This stuff is available from elsewhere but we are efficient, reliable producers AND much closer than W Africa or Brazil.
Shipping from W Africa would cost US$1 mill extra for a large carrier.
40
A bit late, the weather now is near perfect. I say “near” because there is little agreement on “perfect?.
20
My sister has chosen to celebrate her 50th in Port Douglas in July. I feared the worst in terms of higher airfares, just checked and they’re not too bad atm. Pressing on with bookings and hoping no fuel shortages at that time of year trigger flight cancellations.
10
You’ll be right. It’s never too late in winter for southerners and Pt, Douglas doesn’t get the dry cold we get here. [Cold for me anyway 😀]
20
Potential fuel shortages- what could go Wong?!
11
Some one needs to Ping Pong
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I assume they are mixing up Avgas and Jet fuel (JetA1) terminology. I can’t see Avgas being critical nation stopping stuff.
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I hope Mr Wong or those who tell him what to think aren’t confused and begging them for Avgas when we mostly need Jet A-1.
Aircraft that need Avgas can run on ethanol-free 98 octane automotive gasoline (but not recommended unless the aircraft is certified for this fuel and many are).
40
https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2026/04/23/3fd0fa42-2b16-4238-892c-966d23047f8b.html
See Exhibit 7
In about 3 weeks about 50% of Iranian production is going to become unproductive for a very long time.
China is screwed.
The US pays down a lot of its US$40T of debt. Not by paying down the principle. Just servicing the debt with oil taxes and inflating the principle while controlling any government spending growth. Think real estate and just who in the US cabinet has done this before.
This is “The Plan”.
Iran walked into the cross hairs.
If they have no nuke fuel the local warlords are dead men walking.
If they keep their nuke fuel their revenue is halved when the US withdraws and China is still screwed because there is no longer any cheap oil. Their manufacturing economy is dependent on cheap oil.
Anyway you look at this Australia needs to get a reliable supply of diesel. Net Zero is now an E.L.E. policy.
No doubt our government will blame Trump.
Net Zero is now very close to destroying Australia’s economy.
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It’s no accident that China’s sources of cheap oil have been cut, Trump is no fool. It’s all part of the plan.
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E.L.E. = Extinction Level Event ?
30
Wong will save us!
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Except Iran has been there before and their oil production recovered
https://sonar21.com/the-assassination-myth-and-iran-continues-to-run-the-blockade/
01
I think you are agreeing that the world’s eceonomy is now dependent on a bunch of thieves and despots in Iran.
My point is that once you turn off an aging reserve and leave it OFF for a few weeks its hard to recover it at no expense. If the additional cost makes the value of the resource too expensive its not going to be turned back ON.
I doubt if most of government understands that if 2% of the oil that makes diesel is removed from the system the price of diesel may go up 30% permanently.
Australia’s economy runs on diesel (C15-18). China understands this and is rapidly building CTL plants. Australia has plenty of coal but even more snouts in the tax trough. There is plenty of institutional corruption in Australia.
When China gets to a Billion tons of coal being processed to fuels, Australia may become dependent on China for fuel. This is going to happen by 2030.
Watch them negotiate new iron ore and coking coal prices then.
21
In the case of our most important export, iron ore, the simplest method of negotiation is to stop buying from your largest supplier and negotiate a new rate. If there are not enough large suppliers you finance a smaller one till they can supply the shortfall. If this sounds like BHP and FMG, who’d have thought.
They are now going to do us over with diesel.
Our government is ludicrously stupid.
40
Oil coming from the Free, Democratic World. Reliable Supply Chains, virtual immunity from Shocks, what a thing to dream of! I wish Australia would change it’s position on that Supply Chain from end to beginning. Imagine giant, glorious refineries shipping Autralian drilled petrol, diesel, avgas, bitumen, feed stocks all over the World! We have enough of everything. All we need is to disempower the gan greens.
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As the Coalition Leader Angust Taylor and Deputy Leader Matt Canavan have been pointing out since they became the leaders earlier 2026, and as both had been pushing when at different times they held the portfolio of Minister for Energy.
Everything needed is already here in Australia from the wealth of natural resources, educated workforce, generally good weather conditions, already self reliant for food which is also exported, etc.
Last night Rowan Dean on Sky spoke at length about the United Nations interference in the affairs of member countries and how wealth transfer based on manufacturing industry and trade agreements for developing countries are among the roots of the problems developed countries, and for us Australia are facing.
From first term as President Donald Trump has worked to achieve an economic recovery in America, and his lifting of restrictions on “digging and drilling” is why now the US has become a major exporter of oil and fuel from oil, exports more than Saudi Arabia. He as a businessman opposed the UN lima Protocol 1975 and UN Agenda 21 1992 Sustainability and other “interference”. He criticised the United Nations and the many organisations they have attached to UN for interfering in member sovereign nations affairs.
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As the Coalition Leader Angust Taylor and Deputy Leader Matt Canavan have been pointing out since they became the leaders earlier 2026, and as both had been pushing when at different times they held the portfolio of Minister for Energy.
Everything needed is already here in Australia from the wealth of natural resources, educated workforce, generally good weather conditions, already self reliant for food which is also exported, etc.
Last night Rowan Dean on Sky spoke at length about the United Nations interference in the affairs of member countries and how wealth transfer based on manufacturing industry and trade agreements for developing countries are among the roots of the problems developed countries, and for us Australia are facing.
From first term as President Donald Trump has worked to achieve an economic recovery in America, and his lifting of restrictions on “digging and drilling” is why now the US has become a major exporter of oil and fuel from oil, exports more than Saudi Arabia. He as a businessman opposed the UN lima Protocol 1975 and UN Agenda 21 1992 Sustainability and other “interference”. He criticised the United Nations and the many organisations they have attached to UN for interfering in member sovereign nations affairs.
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You won’t change the Green’s minds. They believe that the World faces catastrophe from releasing CO2.
That China releases for more than we ever will, is regarded as a great thing, because they have more wind turbines than us.
And Canberra is isolated from the fuel crisis because “it relies on renewable electricity” and other nonsense.
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That is most likely true. But only about 11% of voters put the Greens first. So 89% could potentially change their mind.
A cause for hope.
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True greens would not vote for bird mincers.
300
I think true greens may be extinct. Irrational socialist greens are extant.
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“This is why Trump can afford to keep Iran waiting — he has options which Europe and Australia don’t. And this works in his negotiations. The more desperate we are for fuel, the more options Trump has.”
Meanwhile, in Australia, Elbow, and the premiers, sit on their hands.
340
It looks like Donald Trump’s advisers are telling him that Iran’s regime can be squeezed to death by blocking the Strait of Hormuz (Sun Tzu would approve, too). I hope they are telling him that, and I hope they are right, and I hope that it won’t take long. If and when the Iranian regime does fall, expect a raft of reasons to be found for this being a bad thing. There is absolutely nothing in this world, or in the universe for that matter, more important than destroying Donald Trump.
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SARC
Australia is green and doesn’t need oil.
Australia runs on wind, sun and Unicorn f@rts.
Just ask the Anti-energy Minister, Chrissie “Blackout” Bowen.
/SARC
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Bowen aka Boofheadus Australis…
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“Just ask the Anti-energy Minister, Chrissie “Blackout” Bowen.
No need to ask Bowen anything it is a fait accompli.
China now dominates the mass production of almost all clean technologies across solar (80%), wind (70%), battery cells (80%), battery systems (80%), EVs (70%) and hydrogen electrolysers (58%). In newer industries such as heavy electric trucks, market share is over 90%. Due to this year’s oil crisis China is likely to accelerate the rush for clean technology. China will increase export of shipments of solar panels will be added to power grids or as standalone energy sources everywhere and cheap daytime solar will reduce demand for pricier power from coal and gas plants.
114
You are assuming this will happen because all countries will want to purchase their solar and wind products. Certainly silly countries such as Australia and the UK will continue to do this for a while, but there is no indication that larger countries such as the U.S., India, other Asian countries or even China itself are primarily going down the renewables path. In fact, it’s becoming very clear that many countries are either expanding their fossil fuel use or swinging back to fossil fuels. This change now includes Germany.
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Small problem: those “pricier” products are the only ones that work when wind and solar fail – and wind and solar fail hundreds of times a year.
60
Too true. At a minimum, solar fails once every day, and NEM wind fails close to once every three days.
20
Can you tell us more about the “clean” part of this technology? Please start with raw materials and go on to disposal of end-of – life- cycle waste. Much appreciated.
20
When 3flags Albo got elected, Bowen said, yesterday I didn’t know what an Energy Minister was, now I are one.
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The Wall Street Journal had a great article today about American Oil and gas companies working with the new Venezuelan government on expanding Oil drilling, extraction and exporting.
The Venezuelan’s, God Bless them, want to prosper.
“Suddenly U.S. Oil Giants Are Taking Another Look at ‘Uninvestable’ Venezuela.
Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips recently sent technical teams to assess their prospects in the Latin American country.”
By Collin Eaton
Vera Bergengruen
Kejal Vyas
Updated May 1, 2026 11:16 am ET
“In addition, the oil executives see recent changes that Venezuela made to its energy laws as a step in the right direction. Rodriguez has sought to reassure them that the country is serious about rejoining the Western Hemisphere’s energy ecosystem. The government’s move to overhaul its hydrocarbon laws in favor of private investors has given U.S. executives more confidence, the people said.”
But Trump doesn’t know what he is doing, all the Europen leaders insist. Poor Europe, sure going to miss you!!!
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I do not read Chevron? They were the largest owner operators before everything was grabbed by the socialists under Chavez.Trump said they were going back to assess.
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I was also very surprised that the Chinese and Russians and Cubans did not maintain and invest in the oil businesses in Venezuela. They ran everything down. Output halved. Robbery not investment or even maintenance. Drug dealer Maduro preferred his own business. No one gave a damn for the people even if output halved, the people starved and tuberculosis raged. All solved by Trump in one night.
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Why do the media have nothing good to say about Trump?
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It’s obvious. There is nothing good to say about Trump. That’s why so many Americans are reconsidering their support, with significant wobbling among working-class and lower-income supporters. Rising inflation, high gas prices, and the war in Iran have led to record-low approval ratings, with 70% of Americans believing the country is heading in the wrong direction.
023
How do you know this? Do you really believe the opinions of the working-class and lower-income supporters are well represented in the media reporting?
Business has never been better. The stock market is zooming up. Unemployment is the lowest in about a hundred years. Jobs are returning to middle America. And a 25% tax on European cars gives real hope to US auto workers. (pre Trump the US tax on German cars was 5% while the German tax on US cars was 25%)
If anyone is bleeding jobs it’s Democrat California with massive social problems, homeless, drug addiction, unemploymnet and businesses fleeing and Hollywood crashing down in AI Age. Melania is a hit film. Everything Hollywood hates is doing well in Cinemas. And ‘put a chick in it and make her gay’ has been a disaster.
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Seem to be ignoring the fact that the U.S. has the highest industrial GDP per capita of any nation, higher than even China. The country is going from strength to strength, and this is also backed by Jo’s article.
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The United States certainly does NOT have “he highest industrial GDP per capita of any nation.” Different sources do not agree on the exact rankings of different countries but most place the United States at around 10th, including the one below.
GDP per capita, PPP – Country rankings
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/gdp_per_capita_ppp/#:~:text=GDP%20per%20capita%2C%20PPP%20%2D%20Country%20rankings&text=The%20average%20for%202024%20based,available%20from%201990%20to%202024.
04
Roy, did you note the word “industrial”? Your link refers to overall GDP, not industrial.
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Ireland is third? That’s nonsense for industrial GDP. And even for general GDP, completely fake thanks to Apple Inc. the world’s biggest (American) company moving its tax base to Ireland.
The top 5 viz. Singapore, Luxemborg, Ireland, Macao, Qatar, Bermuda. should give some idea that this is a crazy measurement, simply cash in and cash out for tiny tax havens.
60
They haven’t been saying any good about Trump from the moment he won the Presidency for the first time. He hadn’t even signed an executive order on anything and they had started.
He is not beholden to the swamp. That’s why they don’t like him. That’s why they are deranged.
80
As I have reported here, media management departments and spin doctors, journalists, psychologists, sales and marketing graduates, all kinds of qualifications combined to achieve “the ingenuity of the spin”.
Rowen Dean on Sky last night mentioned state government with taxpayer funded media personnel and he mentioned thirty staffers as typical, I understand that Albanese Labor Canberra have many more media management staffers.
These people carry out internal polling never published, focus group discussions to gauge perceptions and opinions, they research voting trends from past elections by electorate, by polling booth, and predict like an actuary the likely next outcome and how to campaign to achieve it.
Politics has become very sophisticated spin based campaigning, and in the USA same as here and elsewhere relentless negativity is a weapon used against political opponents like President Trump, and here all but one Liberal Coalition MP from Howard to Morrison (and Dutton). And now they have moved on to Taylor and Canavan.
It was said years ago that throwing mud (or painting is another expression) at an opponent results gradually in that target being covered and many voters forget what is beneath the mud coating.
I read here and elsewhere repeating of relentless negativity and know how that delights the Labor side, especially when conservatives are indulging in trying to gain publicity at the expense of the same side but different party or group.
60
$64 question that one Tdef…..
50
80 years ago Argentina was a First World country, right there with Canada and Australia. 70 years ago Cuba was a First World country, right there with the middle sized Europeans like Belgium and Denmark.
Then the dictators and communists took over. Now they are near enough to Third World shitholes, although Milei is doing amazing things in Argentina to fix their situation.
There is a common denominator – dictators with communist/socialist policies.
220
Running down their SPR at record rates, making bank in the meantime.
With May 14 approaching (the close out date for Jun26 WTI contracts) we have contract close outs of 1.9M BBL at $105, 3M BBL at $115, 2M BBL at $135 and 2M BBL at an eye watering $159/BBL.
Once the short positions have been shaken out of the market, who knows where the top will be?
90
Perspective:
“The United States is in the process of releasing 172 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S. SPR. The U.S. SPR release is part of a coordinated effort with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined products globally to address disruptions in oil supply stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Our recent Today in Energy analysis explores the strategic oil inventory levels in other countries before the release announcement.”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67625
By July the USA will be down to 1982 reserve level.
Flamboyance won’t fix anything, and the predicted propagation delay ramifications and now hitting and worsening. Just like post-Covid, things will never to back to what they were…
22
So Al baby reckons an ice age is possible sooner rather than later. Why would he say this?
150
Al Gore told him so
40
Is Trump playing 4D chess to makes us Americans the global energy powerhouse?
Sort of in secret? (Disguising his devious plan with the crazy acting.)
Because one (or actually both) of the major political parties, ’cause both cohabitate with The DS, don’t want us to be an ‘energy powerhouse’.
And that would the European dinner guests unhappy.
But the poor DS is discombobulated by the Discombobulator.
Because energy bad.
Cause jungle to get hotter.
But now energy good, because DS want AI.
Jane want energy, but not want Tarzan to be powerhouse.
170
The Australian Government certainly needs AI so it can trace, track, control and censor us.
I have absolutely no doubt it would be hypocritically prepared to build its own coal, gas or nuclear power station to power its own Big Brother hyperscale AI data centre.
Because you can’t run AI on wind, solar and Unicorn flatulence.
240
AI might force the clowns to build nuclear power after all.
150
Are you aware that during the 1950s the Federal Goverment decided to build a nuclear power station on Commonwealth land at Jervis Bay near Nowra NSW, that was just before the first nuclear reactor for producing radio isotopes was installed at Lucas Heights Sydney, Australian Atomic Energy Commission now Australian Nuclear Technology Science Organisation – ANSTO?
The foundations are still there, the project was cancelled following new discoveries of coal and gas deposits and the government then decided that nuclear was not needed here.
Later, 1990s Howard Government, there was legislation before the Senate for a replacement nuclear reactor at Lucas Heights and the Greens and other Senate Opposition forced the Government to agree to a ban on nuclear power stations in return for passing the research and isotope new reactor replacement.
90
The Australian Government needs some kind of intelligence, that much is certain
110
I have been re-reading The South Sea Bubble by John Carswell (written 1990 first edition) about how a group of somewhat shady businessmen came up with a scheme to solve a worry by some politicians.
Based on an overseas project – which failed after their scheme was launched. Much enthusiasm from the public (helped by the Press) and vast riches for the culprits.
And you may think this is a fairytale when I point out that most of the guilty were prosecuted and lost a lot of their ill-gotten gains.
30
The Discombobulator – or as Jo playfully reminds us, OrangeManBad.
If only Greens spoke Bahasa Indonesian, they’d comprehend one of their endangered icons of the jungle, the orangutan, is literally Orange Man:
orang : utan
orange man,
ironically chased out of its home by loggers clearing land for palm oil plantations to ‘save the planet’ from so-called fossil fuels and carbon emissions [sic & sicker].
That climate botherers love one orange hairy man of the jungle, yet loathe another, is a symptom of modern-day dis-ease: perhaps they need to eat more red meat and swing from tree to tree like Tarzan chasing Jane for a little afternoon delight?
200
Close, in Malay and Indonesian ‘orang’ means ‘person’, and ‘utan’ is derived from the word ‘hutan’, meaning ‘forest’.
OrangeManBad might be the antithesis of placid untroubled Orang Utan.
50
It’s actually simpler than that, and the “climate crisis” is merely the ideology used to beat the simpletons into submission with.
“Energy power house” USA gains a ready source of petro-dollar revenues when it sells to other countries, thus allowing it to keep kicking its debt can further down the road.
30
But….But…. Peak Oil was 40 years ago!
Wasn’t it?
110
Older than that. It was touted back in 1929, and no doubt even earlier.
60
BTW Russia exports of oil are about the same as Saudi Arabia, but the USA are helping to bring on major Venezuelan repairs and then even more oil exports to help that country’s future prosperity.
150
Here’s Russian and Venezuelan oil exports added to that list and Venezuelan exports have seen a big drop since 1970 and over the last 10 years.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country?country=QAT~OMN~SAU~NOR~IRQ~USA~ARE~AUS~GBR~IRN~VEN~RUS
60
It is easy to forget that Trump started turning the ship in 2016. What we now see is a decade of effort punctuated by 3 years of meddling under Biden’s autopen.
It gives some idea of the hard road ahead for Australia to get out from under the UN stooges of the UN-party; ALL pushing their global climate catastrophe.
When your opportunity arises, vote One Nation.
310
Rick can you help me try to understand Grok’s answer to my short naive question at 11?
Do Grok’s numbers make any sense to you? I’m sure you could ask Grok or another AI a better question.
40
Grok’s answer is reasonable because capacity factor is not measured in terra-watt hours.
What I can advise you is that last year grid solar produced 19.2TWh, grid wind 36.1TWh.
There is now 13.5GW of wind and 10.7GW of grid solar on the NEM.
If they worked at 100% capacity for a year then wind would produce 118TWh and grid solar 94TWh.
So capacity factors are
Wind 36.1/118 = 30.6% across the NEM
Grid Solar 19.2/94 = 20.4%
The only category that can grow unbridled is rooftop solar. It produced 30TWh in 2025. I expect rooftops will surpass wind as the largest “renewable” class in 2026.
Every rooftop solar system that gets connected takes money away from grid scale “renewables”. They would not have a business case without Blackouts guaranteed ROI.
110
Surely there is not going to be much more growth in home solar? In fact, I would suggest that when some of the early systems fail, they won’t be replaced. And any removal or reduction in govt subsidies would impact any growth.
20
Much of the current growth is due to batteries. Batteries prevent automatic curtailment.
Distributed solar at the load is the only real game in play. It has the ability to nobble other intermittents by removing demand.
Average rooftop solar production jumped by 648MW in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025. It takes 10 years to build a new 2GW coal fired power station or wind farm and get it connected. Rooftops could increase by 6GW over the same period.
Only fools would back grid scale “renewables” and we are all collectively fools for giving Blackout the job of funding them from our pockets.
Many households that have benefited from solar over the last 15 years or so are looking to upgrade their systems. Some do that with the battery installation.
H2 2025 was a record half forrooftop solar capacity installed but 2025 was not the highest year overall:
https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/getmedia/16ed1cff-8ddb-423a-b3ad-3f9fa8e4d594/rooftop-solar-and-storage-biannual-report_july-december-2025.pdf
I see no reason for installations to slow down. Households that go electric really need to have rooftop and battery to get any real benefit.
60
I asked Grok:
“What are Australia’s wind and solar energy capacity factors measured in terra-watt hours”.
Here’s Grok’s answer using some fairly dubious references:
“Australia’s wind and solar capacity factors are typically expressed as percentages, not terawatt-hours (TWh). TWh measures total energy generation, while capacity factor is the ratio of actual output to maximum possible output over time (e.g., 30% means a turbine/farm produces 30% of its nameplate capacity on average)”.
“Key Capacity Factor Data (2021 National Maps, Geoscience Australia)
From detailed Renewable Energy Capacity Factor Maps (2021) produced by Geoscience Australia and Monash University:
researchdata.edu.au”
“Onshore Wind (150m hub height):
“Range: 15% to 42%
Derived from Global Wind Atlas and DNV GL data
Large-Scale Solar PV”:
“Range: 10% to 25%
Derived from Bureau of Meteorology solar data
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)”:
“Range: 52% to 62% (higher due to thermal storage potential)
Hybrid Wind-Solar (optimized ratios)”:
“Peak at 64% capacity factor (50:50 wind:solar ratio for electrolysis/hydrogen)
Offshore Wind (150m hub height): Separate map shows higher potential, typically >45-55% in prime zones (e.g., southern coasts).
researchdata.edu.au”
“Recent Real-World Performance (NEM, May 2024 “Wind Drought”)
From Australian Energy Council analysis of an 8-day VRE drought (20-27 May 2024):
energycouncil.com.au”
“Region/Source Wind CF Solar CF Combined VRE CF
NEM Average 12% 18% 14%
NEM ex-QLD 9% – 12%
QLD (best wind) 34% 19% 23%
NSW/VIC/SA (worst) 5-11% 16-18% 10%
Annual ISP benchmarks (AEMO 2024): Wind ~28%, Solar ~21%”
“Generation Context (TWh for Scale)
For reference, 2024 total incentivized renewable generation was 82.5 TWh (32% of Australia’s electricity), including”:
“LRET solar/wind: 50.1 TWh
SRES rooftop solar: 32.4 TWh
cer.gov.au
Recommended LCOE Values (GenCost Review)
Technical assessment suggests realistic ranges for modeling:
aemo.com.au”
“Technology High CF Average CF Low CF
Onshore Wind 42.8% 29.8% 19.6%
Solar PV 29% 23% 19%”
“These vary by site—prime southwest wind zones hit 40%+, northern solar 25%+, but national averages are lower due to geography and weather correlation risks like “Dunkelflaute” events. Download full geotiff maps from Geoscience Australia for site-specific data”.
50
Huh!
The blank looks I get when I mention Capacity Factor.
Asked in a search engine ….. “is capacity factor important when it comes to wind power”
Here’s the response.
The whole thing ….. Capacity Factor is, well, by the by really! Wind Generation Capacity Factor is currently running at just under 30%.
We’ve been conditioned to think of wind power generation as ….. good!!
Imagine this then.
If a new car came out and it was only going to run for less than a third of the time when the key was turned to start it up. If that car took off on its daily trip and was only going to get you to your destination less than one third of the times you started out, how many of those cars do you think would be sold. And how many people would be ‘off the map’ irate and hostile. And how many governments would launch an inquiry, and how many media outlets would be talking about it as their headlines no less.
Same with home appliances, TVs, cookers, everything, name it, and just imagine if they only worked one third of the time.
The would be laughed out of existence.
We’ve been conditioned to think that somehow, this is acceptable with wind power, as well as solar power, whose Capacity Factor is even lower.
But hey, look back to my very first sentence above ….. ‘blank looks’.
Nobody knows, and those in control who do know don’t even care. (well, in actual fact, they do (sorta) care, otherwise, why hide that Capacity Factor in plain sight by describing it as ….. homes supplied! A cunning ploy which no one knows about as well.)
ANYTHING else ….. just laughed out of existence.
Wind power generation is not fit for purpose in any way. It doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do ….. REPLACE coal fired power.
The Millmerran coal fired power plant in Queensland has been in operation for 22 years. It has a lifetime Capacity Factor of 85.1%, and for eight of those years operated at 90%, and its only down time is for routine maintenance. In 2015, it operated at 94% Capacity Factor for the whole year, and in that same year, 2015, this one coal fired plant with a Nameplate of just 850MW delivered 70% of the power delivered by EVERY wind plant in Australia.
There is just no comparison at all.
And no one knows!!
Tony.
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Thanks Tony for your comments and I hope you could ask an AI a better question than I can.
BTW Wikipedia still tells us that Aussie wind average capacity factor is 24% and solar is 15%.
Again my naive question is how do you run our country properly when wind doesn’t generate for 76% of every year or on solar that doesn’t generate for 85% of every year?
Are we really that barking mad or what?
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” Are we really that barking mad or what? ”
There’s your proof that at least our crazy energy minister is, so is his boss.
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Sorry Neville, accidental touch on red while reading.
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The buffoons running the systems are aware of the low capacity factor, hence the ridiculous strategy to over build Capacity to compensate for it. So they’ll happily use our tax payer money to build 10,000MW of wind farms to replace 300MW conventional generator, because …CLIMATE Catastrophe!
Example, recent Western Australia state government announcements to “fast track” approvals for 4 new wind farms, including one in the far South West corner of the continent at a location called Scott River, it’s prime agriculture land and also a unique environmental area, but nature be damned when it comes to Energy Transition progress.
They also announced 140 million to built new transmission lines to connect said wind to the grid.
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It’s interesting to note that “sunny” Australia’s solar CF is not much above solar CF in Europe and UK – 10-11%. This shows how inefficient the energy conversion process of sunlight to electricity actually is. And it’s not going to improve much.
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I read and hear comments about Installed Capacity, not often stated as that, as if the capacity installed is the Capacity Factor that the commentators also do not understand.
The sales and marketing and ministerial comments do sometimes mention installed and/or could power UP TO whatever number of houses, but I believe that most voters when told as the Minister commented recently that 50% is now installed, he failed to mention around 20% is hydro power station generators or Capacity factor rating.
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I usually laugh when I hear that a certain new wind or solar installation “could provide power for say 100,000 homes “, that figure would have to be nameplate output, not capacity factor, as the clowns talking and reporting on it wouldn’t have a clue what capacity factor was.
So in straight talk, that 100,000 homes number would shrink to 27,000 instead.
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Good on the US and DJT. We should be grateful they’re on our side.
Past Australian generations knew all this. The shock of WW2 solidified the belief amongst our once wise leaders, that Australia needed to be independent of supplies of not only oil, but other essentials. We’re right at the arse end of the world’s supply chain- literally. That’s why Bass Strait was developed and why we’ve always exploited our natural coal reserves.
Maybe instead of pushing art degrees graduates into politics and public service, we go back to employing ex military types into leadership roles. You know, like John Monash. Jim Molan was always big on the fuel reserve, he could see the folly in reducing that. We need a major general of oil exploration to outflank the climate blob alarmists embedded in our society.
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We could be doing more for ourselves, build another two Eromanga type small refineries, one at Pt Bonython, SA, to process the liquids coming from Moomba and another in Queensland to process the new Taroom oil fields output, the residual can sent to Brisbane Ampol refinery.
These small refineries can supply diesel which is the most needed fuel in rural areas plus solvents, heating oil and kerosene, not sure if the kero can be used in turbine aircraft.
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It goes further back than that. The siting of the Risdon zinc smelter in Hobart got incentive from WW1. It was at a location that had close ties to UK but a long way from Germany.
Broken Hill and Port Pirie existed long before WW1 but their strategic importance was recognised during WW1.
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The British – European hegemony controling the oil market is finished. The US now governs world oil. Under Albanese and Bowen Australians can either like it or lump it while we wait in thrall to China.
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And the reason Trump could do this was NOT drill, baby, drill but Frack, baby Frack. 66% of the oil is from fracking. 90% of the equally important gas.
Over a million fracking sites world wide, no problems and unconstitutional in Victoria. As with coal seam gas. Fusion. Uranium. And even Thorium which is really looking ahead. Is it time to ban fusion as well? Cheap energy must be banned. We are true believers in Victoria.
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‘Is it time to ban fusion as well?’
They are showing complete ignorance, we have to wait for moon dust to arrive in sufficient quantities before commencing fusion operations.
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How do you know that? Do you have a specific insight? Nett positive enegy reactions have already been achieved
If the tens of trillions wasted on controlling CO2 against all known science was instead spent on Fusion, we could have had it a decade ago. Coal, oil and gas will run out soon. Even nuclear unless we invest in Thorium as Uranium is in short supply. But THorium is 100% fissile unlike the 2% of Uranium. Fusion would power the planet forever. Not windmills.
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Thorium is banned in the Victorian Constitution. Which is ridiculous as India and Australia have most of the world’s Thorium! But we are not allowed consider Thorium as a founding principle of our democracy.
And the SEC, the developer of our amazing brown coal electricity, is now banned from developing fossil fuel energy. Unbelievable stupidity, self hate, even malice. Victoria should really make a move and make the element Carbon illegal. In fact ban the entire Periodic table! Why not?
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The Victorian ALP would not know what a Periodic Table was. Maybe it’s a table made in the Victorian Period.
Sictoria is well named.
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To make fusion power financially viable we need container loads of Helium-3 from the moon.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/nuclear-fusion-helium-3-clean-energy-solution-2026/
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Helium 3? That’s someone’s cute idea. Make fusion dependent on something we do not have, except as a byproduct of radioactive decay of Tritium.
Rather fusion is about deuterium, abundant in the ocean. Heavy water. Hitler was producing this in Norway for a potential fusion bomb.
Financially viable? When you have nothing else, anything is ‘financially viable’.
Society would not exist without cheap power, as we have just experienced. Or it’s back to horses, camels, donkeys. Luckily we have enough asses in government.
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You make a good argument, I’ll follow it up.
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No problem TdeF. South Australia now has an interconnector to NSW aa well as the one to Victoria.
This means that when “renewables” are working SA can send electricity to NSW (which will please them in Canberra). Should “renewables” not work sometime then SA can get electricity from Victoria, who can then get electricity from NSW, who can get electricity from Qld (unless their coal-fired plants are shut down).
This may mean that Australia’s anthem might be changed to “Here we go around the mulberry bush” WOKE version of course.
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The National Grid reminds me of the children song based on the Black Death
“Ring-a-ring o’ roses,A pocket full of posies,A-tishoo! A-tishoo!We all fall down”
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Have we learned no lesson from the total collapse of the grid in Spain?
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result”
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“This is why Trump can afford to keep Iran waiting”
That’s certainly good news. But can that certain country we are not allowed to mention lest we get incarcerated afford to keep Iran waiting? The Moshiach is getting impatient to return! I never would have picked Our Jo to be a cult adherent, but there it is.
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What cult you may ask? Many years ago as I recollect there were the Orange People. Its founder drove around in a Rolls Royce. Now we have the Orange Jesus cult, an updating of same, although apparently now the love is not free as the oil. Probably it will come to the same end as all cults do, the founder went mad.
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There are many predicting the demise of the US “next year”, have been doing so for decades, [some on this forum] some are high profile investment gurus with massive followings. Be careful betting against Uncle Sam.
If The West shows faith and gives Trump the time needed, the Axis Of Evil will be kneecapped by end of next year, and I’m looking at China. Too few people understand how evil the CCP is.
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Autocrats can be brutal to their own people, so they need to be persuaded to adopt democracy.
If push comes to shove Japan and China could dump US Treasuries and knee cap the US military industrial complex. Without power or friends its going to be a hard road ahead for this Administration
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As in Australia, only the political classes and that includes the legacy press hate America. The same ones who promoted Macron and Starmer and Albanese. Everyone hates them, not Trump.
The latest elitist trick is to promise conservatism, as in Germany with the Afd, and then after the election to make an alliance with the Left. In almost no European country is the political class in tune with their own people. The revolts against the ruling classes are getting louder and louder in Nederlands, France, Germany, Sweden and the UK. DAVOS is vanishing. Most European countries are currently an alliance between the extreme left and the bankers, aka Fascism. And Trump has had enough of them all. So have their own people.
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And for comic relief we have Kamala Harris on gas prices.
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‘The revolts against the ruling classes are getting louder and louder …’
Takes me back to Marx, you have nothing to lose but your chains.
Europeans are not happy with the autocratic style of Trump, he has given populism a bad name.
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When was a society based on Marx successful? A hundred million died under Marxism in China, Russia, Ukraine and around the world. Military dictatorships and the politicians are the prison guards.
Marx was wrong, solving the problems of the industrial revolution because he lacked imagination and economics. He never considered what was discovered world wide after WWII, consumerism. America stopped making cars and toasters and started making planes, ships and electronics. And changed the world.
He never realised that the way to make the rich richer was to make the poor rich. And there is no point being infinitely rich if there is nothing to buy. Roman Emperors were rich, but could not buy a tomato or a pair of Nike shoes or a Tesla or a mobile phone. A Triumphal Arch is no match for a Bugatti. Or a holiday on Bora Bora.
The idea of socialism is enticing. The reality is universal poverty and total loss of freedom. As on the Berlin wall, “socialist is what totalitarians call themselves”. Hitler was a National socialist or NAZI.
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‘Military dictatorships and the politicians are the prison guards.’
Vietnam is a hybrid model, ‘while the state maintains political control and adheres to Marxist-Leninist ideology, it has operated a market-oriented “socialist-oriented market economy” since the Đổi Mới reforms in 1986.’
They are not too far removed from us except for basic rights, we could sway them with soft power after the hot wars finish.
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Rubbish. You should read more widely.
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I’m looking at the most recent data, Japan and China each have more than a trillion dollars invested in US Treasuries, but word around the traps is they won’t do anything too dramatic in the short term.
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China lost many trillions in the collapse of Freddie Mac and Fanny May in the GFC of 2008. It was a fraud, enticing foreign states with what look liked government backed mortgages to people who didn’t have a cent. The combination of greed and ignorance cost China where everyone parked their money in America for safety but chased higher returns than US Treasury bonds.
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A major reason they are into the US Bond Market is to keep the US dollar high, which makes Chinese and Japanese goods cheaper.
But in these turbulent times they are gradually selling off their US Bonds, just in case.
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Listen and listen closely….OZ is stuffed.
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Compared to whom? Certainly not China, any honest assessment would have them in a depression. Their boom is busting without ever having become rich, they have no “fat” with which to soften the fall.
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Compared to whom? Certainly not China, any honest assessment would have them in a depression. Their boom is busting without ever having become rich, they have no “fat” with which to soften the fall.
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Sorry, this will be on the lengthy side…
Yes, it’s an impressive achievement, a record export of oil, sort of like when the gullible warming cheer-squad hyperventilates because Germany is 98% powered by ruinables; for a half an hour on a sunny windy day. Truth is, that surge in export is thanks to further releases from the US strategic reserve, meaning the record export volumes can’t be sustained long term (analysts suggest this tempo can continue until maybe July) and since the US consumes much of it’s own oil production, once the strategic reserve is drawn down there is no additional production that can be redirected to keep it up. The idea that Uncle Sam will fill the void while 20% of the world’s oil export normally coming from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE are blocked from the market is wishful thinking.
I note among the comments here a lot of cheerleading about the dire trouble China will have as a result of high oil price; has it occurred to the cheersquad that while the US produces it’s own oil, the domestic consumers of that oil are subject to the same market forces as consumers elsewhere? And thinking a little further on things, in the face of escalating energy costs who’s economy is deeper in brown sticky stuff, the US or China?
I’d be a little hesitant about popping the corks from champagne bottles just yet.
I aslo note among the comments here a lot of cheerleading about how Iranian oil fields are about to implode or something because they’re being shut in and they’ll never be back. Well, I have a bridge to sell you. True enough when an oil well is shut in, it can not simply be opened like a tap, wells need to be brought on stream in a controlled manner, the reservoir has to be managed in accordance with the drainage strategy for the field and there is always the probability of fines mobilization during shut-in which can lead to partial plugging of pore throats or fractures in the reservoir which will increase the ‘skin’ in a well which in turn reduces the rate that well resumes production. However, none of this constitutes a terminal impact on production. The main outcome is that Iranian intervention crews will get some extra work for the next couple of years.
And what ever impact any unplanned shut ins in Iran may have, and be mindful that Iranian production has not stopped, nor has its export by sea or overland, the same challenges apply to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq, who’s access to markets have been fully cut. And in the case of the gulf Arab states who have chosen vasalage to Uncle Sam, they also have to repair a lot of damaged oil export terminals and LNG facilities.
As far as having the ability to ‘wait the Iranians out’, well, one does not share your optimistic appraisal of the situation.
Trump is racing the clock. There are mid-term elections later this year and unless all those MAGA voters who took a chance on Trump’s promise to end forever wars aren’t given something to sooth the betrayal they’re all feeling right now, let alone the economic pain they’re feeling everytime they fill their tank, then the Republicans will lose both houses and the next two years will be spent on impeachment procedings, and quite possibly attempts at criminal procedings. So the Iran war needs to be wrapped up fast and in a manner that can be sold to American voters as a big win for their way of life.
And that’s without considering the possibility of food shortages by the end of the year owning to limited availability of fertilizers or the diesel needed to produce and transport all that food on a globalist market.
Depsite all the boasting and insistance of having won biggly, to sober observers, the Iran war can be seen as a strategic defeat for the empire. The cease fire came, like last year’s, at the request of the US/Israel not Iran. It’s yet another TACO because between the US getting smacked about on land and in the air, and while at sea the mighty US Navy might as well be issuing it’s sailors with Pacific Star campaign medals given how far away from proceedings they’ve remained, politically the US has failed to achieve any of their objectives; which ever of the objectives-on-the-fly Petey Kegsbreath and the Donald might chose to talk about this week. ‘The regime’ is still in charge and retains overwhelming public support, the nuclear program is unaffected and the population have not ‘risen up’ nor been cowed. The main ‘achievement’ the US can proudly claim is killing a hundred and seventy five school girls, blowing up a lot of empty buildings, cutting off the world from 20% of it’s daily oil export and accelerating the process of dedollarization (because India and China are certainly not borrowing us Dollars to pay Iran for the oil they purchase, either from Iran or from Russia). Opening the straights of Hormuz is now referred to as an objective, which is kind of comical since they weren’t closed until after the US and Israel launched their attack, and even then, they’ve not been closed to traffic to and from friendly countries.
And all of that losing has been in full view of the world, who have just watched Goliath try beating up David while pretending to negotiate, and while Goliath managed to break a few things, he abjectly failed to beat David into submission.
As something of a sideshow to most of the world, the much vaunted Israeli ‘Defence’ Force has the whole time continued getting its arse handed to it and is demonstrably only capable of petulently carpet bombing the neighbours to work off it’s frustration and ‘roid rage. What is in the post is some serious geopolitical transformation in the region. I tend to agree with Colonels Laurence Wilkerson and Douglas MacGregor that by the time the dust has settled Israel won’t exist as a state anymore, at least not in anything like it’s current form, and possibly the same may be said of a number of the artificial gulf ‘monarchies’, all of whom are creations of the British great power game, and have until now subsisted on US ‘protection’.
I see this week, after Petey Kegsbreath boasted about opening a red, white and blue umbrella over the straights of Hormuz and claiming to have sunk a number of fast missile boats, it turns out the US Navy was painted by Iranian coastal radar after being warned to clear off and they shat themselves, sinking at least six fishing boats and firing off missiles toward the UAE which in turn had them scrambling what’s left of their A-D. This sort of panic isn’t what ‘winning’ looks like.
Now China has banned Chinese oil companies and banks from complying with US sanctions and there’s not been a peep from the dolts in DC in reponse.
Listening to Scott Ritter and Alistair Crooke discussing the more recent goings on, a speculation is forming that after the telephone call with uncle Volodya and the upcoming summit with Xi, perhaps the stage is being set for the US to make a dignified exit stage right with the face saving guesture of allowing the Donald to claim that he’s ‘solved’ two wars (in the Ukraine and in the Persian Gulf) just before the mid terms. That guesture will come in exchange for the US getting tae fook out of Eurasia’s front yard and minding its own business in the Americas while it continues its terminal decline.
But yeah, The US set a record for combined crude and refined oil products last month, here’s a gold star.
As a sort of post script, I sometimes wonder, in a forum of critical thinking, sceptical minded people, who’ve had the good sense to realize that they’ve been fed a steady diet of bovine excrement about gullible warming and the wonders of ruinable energy, how is it that there seems to be so little sceptical, critical thought when it comes to the fantasy image of geopolitics being presented by the same political sock puppets and presstitutes who’ve been selling that gullible warming BS for the last four decades?
As the old Chinese proverb states “may you live in interesting times”, well I reckon we have a front row seat to the collapse of an empire, not just 7o odd years of American hegemony, but the undignified end of five centuries of western/European dominance. I just hope I survive through to the other side to see what replaces it. With the crop of petulent children ‘in charge’ and the megalomaniacs pulling the puppet strings behind those puppets, I won’t hold my breath.
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