By Jo Nova
Humans used more coal in 2025 than at any point in human history.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) solemnly announced that global coal demand reached another all time record high in 2025. “However, it is expected to decline by 2030 amid competition from other energy sources” they say, just like they say every year when coal hits a new record.
The IEA are a fully paid up part of The Blob– their funding comes from taxpayers in rich nations — so their role is to manage the narrative on energy to keep that funding flowing. Every year that coal hits a record high, the IEA also projects that coal use will plateau or fall. Back in 2019, they said “Over the next five years, global coal demand is forecast to remain stable.” Which it didn’t. In 2020 they said “Coal’s partial recovery is set to fade after 2021”. And it didn’t do that either. In 2022 they said “Global coal demand is set to plateau through 2025”. Yet again, demand for coal keeps rising.
Every year they do some version of the plateau graph (below) which includes their wish-list forecast of coal trending flat or down.
This is this years version:
https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary
This fictitious faded out extension on the right (after 2026) distracts the eye from drawing a rising line. It feeds the expectation that coal use will start to decline soon, and hides the relentless rise in coal use in the last twenty years.
No doubt China is happy if other countries don’t feel any urgency to ramp up their coal generators. And the UN is happy because they told us coal was a stranded asset for twenty years and they don’t want to look too stupid. And the renewables industry, and all the bureaucrats that feed in that trough, don’t want the taxpayers to know other countries are feeding on coal.
It’s all part of the Psy-Op.
The growth of renewables might be fast, but it’s not even quick enough to reduce the growth of coal use.
What a sick joke these IEA yappers are and they’ve been wrong for years and looks like they’ll continue to be wrong.
What happens when the rest of Asia + Africa start to really increase the use of coal and try to catch up?
330
The experts who prepare the reports for the IEA are just like the experts that advise our government and try to advise the rest of the country; completely useless and completely dishonest. They know the facts yet pretend they don’t exist much like Michael Mann and his tree rings. Bowen and his hundreds, or is it thousands, of trained public servants keep repeating the mantra of coal being unreliable while ignoring the fact that wind and solar are 70% unavailable. We have too many bureaucrats and too few realists.
350
You have to remember that the vast majority of those public servants have taken no science beyond about 4th Form/Year 10, and the only maths they’ve done beyond that point is the compulsory needed to get into university.
Having worked as a Federal PS I can assure you that an amazing amount of the ones entering the FPS in the late ’80 and through the’90s were functionally innumerate, and now they’ve been there 30-35 years so are going to be in the higher echelons. The ones entering since are going to be worse.
And those were the university graduates.
40
You refer to those UN designated “developing economies” supported by UN agreements and agendas like Lima Protocol 1975.
So remove emissions from developed nations and transfer to developing countries, China being the star leader.
40
“However, it is expected to decline by 2030 amid competition from other energy sources”
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OyJwosZQFls?feature=share
Elon will soon begin building robots. They run on electricity. Batteries, wind turbines and solar panels will not build, service or charge a robot. Machines that run 7/24/365 need reliable, base load power. That’s a billion new machines/year starting 2040.
Less children, more machines.
Coal demand is being reborn even as we are told its not needed.
Oil consumption will keep rising, driven by machinery demand.
We are told AI data centres will require huge amounts of electrical power. The consequence of AI, automation, will require ten times more fossil fuels.
Who owns the fossil fuels wins.
60
Jo
Typo in the header – should be 2025 not 2026!! (Clean up in Isle 1 :-))
110
Are there any false statements in this short presentation?
https://x.com/NetZeroWatch/status/2009206277734584791
70
Archie I linked to that full address before and I’m sure the USA’s Energy secretary is correct.
Chris Wright is the most experienced Energy Sec in US history and what a contrast he is to the B O Bowen donkey and unfortunately Aussies will continue to suffer the consequences.
280
South Australia is the world leader in transition to solar and wind energy.
The peak grid demand was way back in 2010 when they still had car manufacturing and other viable manufacturing. There has been a steady decline as grid generation has been replaced by rooftop solar. There is so much rooftop solar that it has destroyed the economics of grid scale solar and also impinging on the economics of grid scale wind.
Australia’s electrical grid transition is being achieved through rooftop solar and de-industrialisatiuon. The two remaining industrial loads in SA are both on Federal and State support – essentially socialised thereby lowering living standards across the board to keep those industries in the State.
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=all&interval=1y&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
Transition is possible only if China keeps burning coal to provide all the necessary hardware. Australia makes none of the stuff needed for the transition.
240
If SA really wants to prove it’s credentials why don’t they disconnect the interconnections to coal power from the eastern states and get rid of the diesel and gas generators?
From Dec 24.
Over 20% of SA electricity comes from gas.
And in the unlikely event that Australia goes ahead with the AUKUS submarines, there is no way you can allow an electricity supply failure during the process of submerged arc welding of a submarine hull.
I remember a few years ago, even the Feral Government recognised that and “donated” $20 million or so of our taxes to the Australian Submarine Corporation for diesel generators to prevent such problems.
It’s difficult to comprehend how stupid, evil or ignorant (or combination thereof) Australia’s “leaders” are plus the useful idiots of the Left who support them.
230
Re nuclear submarines, from next year 2027 both US and UK nuclear submarines will be based in WA to patrol the Indo Pacific Region and with already embedded RAN sailors in training on board until a couple of years later the US built Virginia Class nuclear submarines start to be delivered to the RAN, and the US have recently pointed out the strategic importance of Indo-Asia Pacific for defence purposes and therefore Australia is an important location, and also US is the top foreign investment source for Australia with UK the second.
Meanwhile the design for the next generation called SSN AUKUS nuclear submarine for RN and RAN is well underway and ours will be built at the Adelaide Osborne Shipyards where Collins Class convention submarines (6) were built. Albanese Labor in early 2025 ordered Small Modular Reactors for SSN AUKUS from Rolls Royce UK
By the way, Albanese Labor have finally ordered several large drone electric submarines from Anduril, a US company that designed and built the first of the submarines in Sydney. These long range submarines can operate with crewed ships as “mother ships” or remotely controlled from shore bases.
50
That presentation was discussed here when it was first released. About a week ago?
40
Less coal use by the woke Western countries like Australia who are enthusiastically shutting down their energy supplies like Luddites means more for China who are a completely protected from criticism by a vast slave army of useful idiots of the Left and by far the world’s largest CO2 emitters.
Emperor Xi is most pleased with the Sinophie sycophants and loyalists who “lead” or more correctly mislead Australia and similar stupid countries but not the United States under TRUMP.
250
We can only hope that more countries wake up to the unreliable W & S disasters and follow Germany and only build proper, safe and reliable BASE-LOAD energy for the rest of the century.
If not then China, Russia, Nth Korea etc will be very pleased and will just sit back and wait for their opportunities.
140
Germany has extended “the life” (i.e. not shutting them down) of lignite (brown coal) plants.
Curiously the most modern of these emit less carbon dioxide than much of Australia’s black coal plants.
They use some of the waste heat to cut the water content. We also have huge amounts of brown coal which the State Government doesn’t allow this new technology nor The Australian pressure method.**
** as far as I can see much of The Opposition similarly inclined.
130
At Davos President Trump already calling out the situation that China continues to supply the world with “clean energy” apparatus, but don’t construct turbines etc in their own country.
230
I understand that Siemens in Germany are the world leaders for steam turbine electricity generator technology?
00
See link – https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/products-services/product-offerings/gas-turbines.html#faq-accordion-eeb49077cc-item-7e0a4679c4
Other manufacturers listed under the FAQ at the end of the page.
Siemens have a good reference list for gas turbines in Australia from industrial to grid generation.
00
Today’s Sydney Morning Herald has an article about record levels of ruinable energy across the eastern seaboard for the last 3 months of 2025. 50.1%. No mention of the duration or that coal fired plants keep spinning regardless.
They did admit the grid isn’t ready to cope without fossil fuel backup.
140
Interesting info in this thread on X today from Aidan Morrison, about the Eraring extension and the dodgy antics of the regulators and authorities. https://x.com/FootnotesGuy/status/2013880337168990547
90
Yes, its a panic piece from the clowns after yesterday’s news Eraring is staying open.
“Grattan Institute energy and climate change director Alison Reeve said the December quarter record was an important litmus test for the grid. Until recently, Australia’s grid being able to cope with high levels of power from renewable energy sources had been derided as unachievable by clean energy detractors.”
Of course its all fine until you want electricity after sunset, but that never gets mentioned. They only talk about the records and maximum production of ruinables, the 11am-3pm mix, and there’s some blatant lies in there to give the wrong impression-
“racing to add more renewables to cut emissions and replace retiring coal plants while keeping the lights on and bills stable….“When coal breaks down, your bills go up. And coal is breaking down a lot. That’s why we’re working to get more renewables into the system, to bring down prices for Australian households”
As if no-one has noticed their power bill has been far from stable over the last 5years or more! No mention of smart meters and timed pricing coming right up. As for Brainless Bowen, if prices go up when coal breaks down it means coal is producing cheap power and you pay more when using ruinables..
160
I laugh at the leftist claims that “old clapped out” coal fired power stations cannot cope, and ignore repairs and maintenance of machinery and equipment when economically viable to maintain.
90
I cry… figuratively speaking.
00
Feynman is quoted as saying that science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.
And these particular experts are in need of a good hard dose of science. They wouldn’t be able to sit down for a month if I had my way.
As a side note it was surprisingly difficult to get google or bing to cough up that quote. They were very keen to promote complaints about how people were increasingly not trusting “The Science TM”. Of course they didn’t say it quite like that.
140
I have never understood that quote.
30
Really? It’s Feynman’s down-to-earth version of nullius in verba.
60
“nobody is perfect” ?
10
It is essentially a statement that there is no such thing as “consensus science”.
Scientific truth isn’t about accepting what the Left call “the science” or “consensus” but constantly questioning “established” knowledge, being open to new or different ideas, understanding that supposed experts can be and are frequently are wrong etc..
It respects scepticism, hates dogma and emphasises scientific understanding.
It’s consistent with Einstein’s statement when the National Socialists sponsored scientists to denounce him, much as socialists still do sponsor scientists to support the Official Narrative, e.g. on covid, “climate change” etc..:
170
Thanks for discussing this important point, as a commentator last week seemed to imply that Feynman supported the notion of scientific consensus. Have just asked AI if Feynman ever did this, and the answer was a clear NO, with Feynman saying once: “If it’s consensus, it isn’t science”.
The “belief in the ignorance of experts” was also regarded by AI as not supporting scientific consensus.
80
Ah grasshopper. You have come to the right place.
40
Be skeptical. Believing something an “expert” says without questioning it is not science. If experts were always believed, humans would still think Earth was the center of the universe. Another example: Ancient Greek philosophy included the theory of the four elements {earth, water, fire, and air} stood at the heart of metaphysical, cosmological, and even medical understanding. A lot has changed because others thought these ancients were wrong (ignorant).
40
As per the Royal Society’s 17th century motto “Don’t take anyone’s word for it.”.
Most people on this blog back up their comments with links to articles or studies, which are available for anyone to view. A reader of these links is free to concur with the material or provide a contrary opinion by either disproving the validity of the material or providing other content that presents a valid counter point of view.
It’s a healthy place for a free exchange of ideas without censorship unless you post offensive comments or stray way off topic. I can’t say the same thing about The Age- I unsubscribed from that media provider last year because comments I made, which were neither offensive or incorrect, were “moderated” (ie they were not published). I assume this occurred because the moderators wanted to maintain an echo chamber free from “dangerous ideas”.
40
‘King Coal’ is King for a very good reason. Many, many reasons actually.
Long may ‘King Coal’ reign and ‘rain’ on the UN and Blob charade/parade.
CO2 is plant food don’t cha’ know.
170
Australia is getting more “renewable” energy. The cost is de-industrialisation.
I have no doubt that Australia is the best placed country in the entire world to make households and small businesses run off rooftop solar and batteries with support from a skinny grid distributing the solar and pumping in gas and hydro when needed. The average price around $120/MWh in current terms is about three times what heavy industry needs to survive in the world market.
140
Would a large number of households and small businesses in Australia be using rooftop solar in the year 2025 if the power grid that existed thirty years ago in 1995 was still in place and was still operating in the same way as it did in 1995?
110
No, I dont think so. Because if instead of taking the crazy AGW/ renewable energy road, it was decided to maintain or upgrade the grid in place back then, electricity would still be dirt cheap. The weather is no different to then and who cares what the weather is like in 70 years time. The belief that man made CO2 has any effect on the world’s climate is just a huge scam.
130
Or even more efficiently given the new Technologies that have / are evolved Beta ??
10
Lowest ever grid prices were achieved in 2003. That was after the State monopolies were removed from using the electricity assets as money making ventures but before Howard’s RET encourage weather dependent generators into the generation mix. So the best time was 2003, just 23 years back.
The RET was the beginning of the end for the grid as an economic asset.
A number of remote loads have benefited from solar and batteries. With grid prices now averaging $120/MWh, solar is an economic proposition for any facility with a roof or open space for solar panels. That would not be the case if the wholesale price was still under $40/MWh.
40
Here’s Chris Wright explaining why the US will need 100 more Gigawatts of reliable BASE-LOAD energy in the next 5 years.
He also talks more about the future of Energy and thinks the long term future could be Nuclear, but we’ll always need some fossil fuels.
This is about 7 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la-XAKI2SXM
30
It’s just madness. Victoria is perhaps the maddest with a law against Coal Seam gas, fracking, nuclear and even picking up sticks in the forest. How and why is coal seam gas illegal? No science is required to write science based laws in the modern world No proof of anything. And it’s getting madder.
And off the North West Shelf of Australia, a giant Japanese energy company has paused the plan to bury 100 million tons of ‘carbon’ a year. No idea what that means, carbon, carbon dioxide? And why would you do that when all the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide cycles through the ocean in five years. Clearly the 0.02% we contribute worldwide from burning old leaves is irrelevant in the amount of CO2 in the air. But how cares? You have to bury CO2, stop using coal, not use gas, not use fracking, not make gas or burn coal. Because the United Nations says so, an unelected non science body of retired opportunistic politicians living the free first class life.
The previous head of the IPCC boasted that he flew 360,000km a year telling people not to fly. A railway engineer who wrote soft porn, he was the world’s authority on shutting down evil carbon.
When sense finally returns to the Western world, there will have to be a demolition of all Climate laws and taxes. And perhaps the idea that no law should be passed without actual proof of the need, not just a reference to the self justifying pampered ratbags of the UN.
250
The perfect selection for a gravy train CEO
40
‘When sense finally returns to the Western world…’
Kind of. There is sense in the destruction, because the intention is to destroy.
Change will arise when we replace those who work for destruction with those who work for flourishing. At the moment, who?
20
It is near certain that coal will continue to rise and the reason is set out in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo2-q4AFh_g
The “green new scam” is often mentioned.
110
So the Covid motto “Flatten the curve” finally found a home with the energy transitioners.
60
Again, here’s the booming co2 emissions since 1945 for the World, then the developing NON OECD countries and the developed OECD countries.
I’ve added the Aussie co2 emissions horizontal line at the bottom.
OECD countries annual co2 emissions are slightly down since 1988 while the NON OECD have added another 16 + BILLION tons per year by 2024.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=OWID_WRL~Non-OECD+%28GCP%29~OECD+%28GCP%29~AUS
30
The OECD countries in the entire Southern Hemisphere are Australia, New Zealand and Chile. Half a planet, mainly CO2 hungry water and we have to save the other half? Why?
100
Shouldn’t we be charging the other OECD countries for sequestering their CO2?
100
Of course we should be charging them and a couple of TRILLION $ should do the trick.
70
Even their CSIRO tells us that the NH is a co2 net SOURCE and the SH is a co2 net SINK.
See under “Seasonal Variation” at the link.
https://capegrim.csiro.au/
30
Politics
20
satellite data says Australia is a net sink of CO 2. We should be doing nothing , spending nothing.
50
Yep, we have yet to achieve Net Zero because we don’t produce enough CO2.
10
Correct. Prof Ian Plimer in one of his climate quiz books confirmed this fact:
AU continent vegetation absorbs 5.2 Billion Tons of CO2, while emitting less than 500 Million Tons.
Therefore AU is 10x net zero = do nothing, build reliable energy generators.
10
Jo loves the Blob….. so does the IEA it appears….
Checkout the web link for the report…
Coal2025
PDF (iea.blob.core.windows.net)
00
Never forget that we have to reduce co2 emissions because of BS about SLR, Polar bears, extreme weather, etc,etc.
But Shellenberger’s interview with the Dutch Engineers has proven that SLs are still changing at just 1.5 mm a year globally since the 1850s.
Here he talks to one of the Engineers for about 6 minutes to explain some of the data and you can get more of the interview by emailing Michael at the link.
Of course there’s no evidence of SLR acceleration at all, EXCEPT IN THE MODELING of other BS studies.
https://www.public.news/p/no-evidence-climate-change-has-accelerated?has_completed_unsubscribed_unlock=true
50
State governments now unwilling to sit back and watch the Blackout Bowen disaster unfolding and the latest decision following recent representations and funding from the Labor NSW Government extends the operation of the state’s largest generator Eraring Power Station to 2029. This second announcement of extension was made without requesting funding from the state government and owners are prepared to rely only on supply profits and asset repaired and reconditioned to the standard required.
Earlier the QLD LNP Government announced that still owned state public assets power stations will not close as scheduled by Labor earlier.
With due consideration for the Federal decision to increase the number of natural gas turbine generator plants (and finally admitting green hydrogen was not viable), I wonder when a Federal Government will announce a Dutton Plan mix of controllable generators including coal, gas, hydro and nuclear?
30
Just reminds of the whole federal/ state hotchpotch mess of management we have in Australia. Where we have federal funding to the states, but the states hold the power in terms of decision making. We learned that during COVID, that ultimately all the useless COVID management tactics were essentially state based. Then we had 6 different policies. Seems like energy is the same. That at the end of the day, it’s the state which decides if they are continuing with coal /gas or going down the crazy RE path. Even this week, following the governments response to Bondi the legislation regarding speech and gun control. The second a completely useless act because we had quite stringent gun legislation anyway. But even though the discussion at the moment is about further gun buybacks etc, it’s the states that will be the action centre. So, probably every state will go with a different plan, as was COVID. All for a measly population of 27million. So even though the federal LNP may have proposed plans for new coal and gas generators in the past when in government, those proposals are not worth a pinch of you know what.
20
Energy is mining is energy is mining is energy is mining
See page 4 https://www.zamstats.gov.zm/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Energy-Statistics-Publication.pdf 68% of Zambia’s energy consumption is mines.
(the first graph is hilarious – 70% wood fuel – so most energy is people cooking!!! This is because they are largely ‘renewable’ with hydro so they need something to go after there, so it’s the Malashas (the people who burn the wood fuel down to cooking coal) that are the problem in Zambia)
I downloaded the full report and the word ‘wood’ didn’t come up on a search, maybe there is a scientific term I am missing here, but I don’t think they are even counting a lot of African energy!
00
Biomass?
00
Coal is king. Coal will save the world…. again.
50