By Jo Nova
A thread for Texas…
Scrib Nibit stood on the Centre Bridge in Texas [downstream from Kerrville]. In a condensed footage of a 35 minute period, the first surge arrives. Minutes later the river is a torrent, carrying trees, logs, and finally rising to the bridge level, a house (apparently with a cat). Somehow cars are still crossing as the logs pile up against the railings. They don’t say what happens to the cat. The area is known as Flash Flood alley.
This video of the Guadalupe was shot in Kerrville, Tx from the Center Bridge. Watch how fast these flood waters were traveling & washing everything in front of it out.
It goes from low & barely flowing to over the top of the bridge in around 35 minutes.
I sped the video up to… pic.twitter.com/NcQe4UAQBa— Clyp Keeper (@DGrayTexas45) July 6, 2025
Despite claims the staffing was cut, extra staff were on duty and warnings were issued. The real problem according to a local in SE Texas, is that they get flashflood warnings every day for weeks on end at times. Nobody pays attention to them.
Even on the far side of the world the Australian ABC news used the deaths of little children in Texas to try to score political points.
I have seen videos of flash flooding before, some are viral. It’s quite and amazing, and unfortunately often harmful phenomenon.
Back in the day, they used to teach things like not to camp on dry creek beds.
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Roger Pielke, Jr.:
“As I write this, the death toll in the Texas flash floods now exceeds 70, with 12 people still missing, including 11 girls and one camp counselor. It is a heartbreaking and horrific tragedy.
“Many have been quick to politicize the tragedy in an effort to support whatever agenda that they were promoting before the disaster — climate change, DOGE budget cuts, operations of the National Weather Service, the Biden Administration.”
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-texas-flash-floods
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On the contrary, there has been very little attempt to politicise this, to do so would be beyond crass.
[ABC Australia repeated all the “Questions about funding cuts. Obviously a dig at Trump 7:08 Prime Time News.– Jo]
People here pooh-pooh The Guardian and New York Times but they are two of the very few newspapers who are capable of investigative reporting.
‘An NWS source confirmed to the Guardian that the forecast office in San Angelo, where the heaviest rains fell, has two current vacancies – the meteorologist-in-charge, who leads each NWS office, and the staff hydrologist, who helps make decisions about flood threats. Additionally, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio — which has primary responsibility for Kerr County — is missing a warning coordination officer, a leadership position whose primary function is to be a decision-making point of contact for local officials and the general public, especially during dangerous weather. Although these positions are vacant, both offices had additional staff working the night shifts on 4 July that performed similar duties. The total staff vacancies at these offices are typical for the pre-Trump era and fewer than the current average staff shortage across the NWS. The local offices have also not been experiencing any lapses in weather balloon data collection that have plagued some other offices.
In fact, weather balloon data gathered on Thursday from nearby Del Rio showed record amounts of moisture present in the upper atmosphere above central Texas and added to the confidence that severe flash flooding was possible. The Austin/San Antonio office then began issuing a series of flood watches starting on Thursday afternoon that cautioned the region to prepare for “excessive runoff” from “5 to 7 inches of rain”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/06/texas-floods-forecast-climate-crisis
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How low can you go Simon? This is a tragedy and trying to defend such blatant biased sources as the NYT and the Guardian at such a time is despicable. Just shows how low you climate satanists are prepared to stoop.
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Actually, the Guardian ended up saying that vacancy level was normal, and the weather people did detect the high humidity and did issue warnings. One thing that I don’t think that any media outlet did, but should have done, was to see how the event compared with past events, ie, was it actually exceptional. It doesn’t take long to find some past data.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193/cd_files/USGS_Storms/25ormore.htm
For comparison, Kerr County reportedly had 5-11 inches of rain in “a few hours”.
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Did the Guardian “investigative” reports look into what happened to the previous folks (and skills) who were doing those critical jobs?
Not hard to speculate that NWS (and their staff budget) are now all fully consumed with CC analysis and making up stories to scare the public about way-off futures.
After all, that’s where the money is now if you are in that job field.
These days it’s easy to get talented staff but it’s mighty hard to find managers who will employ them and risk their career by going against the company narrative.
Pooh-poohing the Guardian as an investigative reporter … count me in.
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A very good friend of mine (for over 50 years) posted on FB that her Aunt was one of those who died in this tragedy. A friend of hers later posted that her daughter’s friend’s child is missing.
I am not going to make any points or rabbit on about right or wrong, other than I hope people learn from this.
And I am still hoping some of those young girls are found alive.
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Former colonial governors when told about debris from floods caught in tree branches inquired and local Aborigines confirmed the flood plains situation, settlers were advised not to build close to waterways and low ground.
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Same applies in the UK.
We, too, have flood plains, and also a political drive to build houses.
Despite the latter, flood plains still flood.
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Well, that is one way to clear brush from forest floor.
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Afternoon thunderstorms are common in July here in mountainous WV and every time there is a slight chance of a severe one we too get a flash flood warning that few now take seriously. We recently had one every day for a week and nothing happened so of course they get ignored.
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I was in WV caving. I crossed a bridge to get to higher ground and had water pouring thru the hole where my fuel pedal went thru the fire wall. My truck was a diesel thank goodness.
We made it to the other side and up the hill to a restaurant parking lot. As I parked we watched a house float by OVER the bridge we had just crossed.
Now I live in NC. Thank goodness POTUS Trump is FINALLY helping the people in my state.
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Those cars are brave.
I’ve experienced flooding of this intensity on Mindanao and a bridge the same size eventually succumbed to the weight and relentless pressure of the water, plus another very long bridge also destroyed. So many homes and lives and everything they loved just gone washed out to sea.
It is astounding the sheer enormity, the vast volumes and weight of water held aloft when you see it released and ravaging the ground like that.
Another typhoon on Samar I saw 2 big cargo ships dumped in the city. Picked up by the rising sea of the typhoon and came to rest standing tall in the middle of wrecked suburbs.
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Never live on the eastern side of the Philippines. The western side is safer.
And don’t live next to any of their volcanoes.
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Here are some statistics from Australia.
According to the Australian Climate Service,
“In Australia, flooding is the second most significant natural disaster to cause human fatalities after heatwaves.”
Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they.
Note, deaths from bushfire are not included for some reason.
No, I’ve never heard of that department either but Government departments are proliferating like crazy, its a way to hide unemployment and the unemployable…
“The Australian Climate Service helps its customers to better understand the threats posed by a changing climate and natural hazards, to limit the impacts now and in the future.”
https://www.acs.gov.au/pages/hazards-floods
But according to another Government department, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare excessive cold, followed by excessive heat, followed by “other” which includes floods, are the most common form of natural disaster death.
Again, deaths from bushfires are not included.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/forces-of-nature
Just imagine if Australia, instead of throwing away billions on useless and economically and environmentally destructive wind and solar projects had actually spent even a small portion of that money on dams for flood mitigation and irrigation and a bit of real hydro where possible.
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Any statistics on how many people die from the cold now that Electrickery and Gas prices have made heating unaffordable for people on low incomes. Like Age Pensioners.
No, I didn’t think so.
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Here in Australia we allow building on floodplains which is just greed at work.
Building in, and using flood canyons is just beyond belief and is up another level.
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Also see my post here:
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/10/the-forgotten-floods-of-victoria-from-150-years-ago/#comment-2599523
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These days and for quite a while, with extensive flood mapping and planning overlays, there is little chance of someone being approved to build in a flood zone. Or if they are approved it’s a single dwelling satisfying various safety factors relating to the flood zone and not approval for many houses such as a housing estate.
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If you get the ‘right’ engineer you can build anywhere. I have the name of one who also does Court Performances for a cost and will act as both the design and certifying engineer on the property developments of his solicitor mates. The contractors describe him with a four letter word. Needless to say questions about his expert opinions go into the black hole of communication with the relevent council building officers.
Well meaning regulation is readily corrupted to maximise profit for those in power. Land that floods is cheap. The sale price is driven up by increased and complex compliance exacted upon honest decent investors proposing similar developments in areas that do not flood or slide down the slope. Cheap unusable land, a rail run through compliance, an excellent profit margin and let the suckers who paid for their dream home swim and learn to shovel mud.
The other pont you may have missed Strop is the end of gravel and sand dredging in the rivers, the addition of more bridges and generally the restriction of flow resulting in flooding in areas not flooded when the flows were able to flow to the ocean.
Speaking of oceans, just look at the rocks on the reef and the foreign boulders on the beaches to know what is going to happen when the Tsunami comes to our low lying coastal seachangers.
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Surely you jest.
Councils want to maximise rates income. That is their priority. Flooding is just a side issue until after the event. I’m referring not only to floodplain flooding, but drainage/surface water flooding too.
You can drive around any number of newish housing estates and see slab-on-ground homes built directly in natural drainage lines where Blind Freddy could predict the inevitable and regular outcome. Such areas should have been left as parkland.
When I was a teen we had a holiday home at Port Stephens high on a hill, but down the back was a paperbark swamp. A swamp for any fool to recognise. Fast forward 35 years and council approved the clearing of that swamp for housing.
Guess what — the first time it rained dozens of houses were swimming. They weren’t going to be washed away, but their carpets might be a bit soggy. The residents then called upon council to improve the drainage. The area is a perched swamp with no natural drainage (apart from infiltration) unless council could make water flow uphill without some good sized pumps.
That council was dominated by a couple of local real estate agents for years and their self interest in land sales was the apparent main driving factor in council approvals. For many coastal councils development is all that matters.
In my home town on the Hunter River there is an entire new housing estate built directly on the floodplain where the water was up over the eaves of houses in the 1955 flood.
Tell me again how councils don’t allow risky development. I like a good laugh.
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Admittedly I can’t account for every council’s decision making and vouch for it not being subject to some form of dodgy influence. But there are planning regulations, flood mapping, building overlays, flood and inundation overlays throughout planning schemes that do not allow the building of dwellings that will be subject to anything less than a 1 in 100 year flood event. On top of that event, there are specific freeboard safety factors above flood level that floor levels must be above.
I would say that it is difficult for it to occur in the last 20 years. Historically it was common.
If it’s occurring and new houses are flooding then it’s:
a) A a dodgy approval against regulations, which would still most likely be captured by any conveyancer acting for a buyer;
b) Incorrect data, or calculations by certifying consultants;
c) Flooding occurs due to an exceedence of the 1 in 100 year event;
d) A failure to maintain or operate drainage systems or mitigation measures;
e) A new home has been built to replace an existing structure on the site that sometimes has exemptions;
f) A falsification of data;
There would be survey, drainage assessments, mitigation in place all justifying that it is safe and the floor level will not be flooded. If it floods then it’s an engineering stuff up, a maintenance stuff up, or a larger than designed event.
Given all the road blocks to development that occur I can say that rates income is not a driving factor in council planning depts. The councilors may have different motives.
They would only be two votes on a council. If the rest of the councilors are supporting inappropriate development then there’s a failure greater than simply those two councilors. Particularly if it’s contrary to the council’s planning dept recommendation. In theory they would also excuse themself from the decision making due to conflicts of interest.
How many years ago was that? If in the last 20 years, definitely in last 10, I’d say it falls into the category of dodgy consultants, errors, or dodgy council.
Point being, these days we don’t allow it per se.
If it’s happening on housing estate scale then improper behavior or an error is involved somewhere in the chain. That’s different to we allow it. It’s like saying we allow bank robbery simply because it occurs.
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In NSW at least, there is enormous government pressure to approve new housing development. They allow private certifiers to be paid by developers to tick the boxes. There are now effectively no controls.
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And when Brisbane was first settled the local aborigines who were camped on the heights came down and warned the settlers not to camp by the river.
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Go here: 30.009398, -99.370441 ~ ~ ~ See Camp Mystic
Note the name “Edmunson Creek”, a small drainage that flows through the property. Cypress Creek, in a larger valley, enters from the southwest. Panther Creek is another (name taken from a road). The large stream is the Guadalupe River.
Examine the siting of this camp. What is it built on? What could go wrong?
Immediate prior flood was 1987.
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I posted this on WUWT earlier.
It’s far from unprecedented, it’s not even the first time multiple fatalities of young people in the Christian camps have occurred from flash flooding. Questions should be asked. You can find various old reports on flooding potential in the area stating that warning systems are inadequate. Clearly no one listened/learned.
NOAA gauge Guadalupe at Comfort.
1. 42.30 ft on 07-01-1869
2. 40.90 ft on 08-02-1978
3. 36.90 ft on 06-14-1935
4. 34.90 ft on 09-16-1915
5. 34.76 ft July 2025
6. 33.15 ft on 10-04-1959
7. 31.50 ft on 07-17-1987
8. 31.33 ft on 07-04-2002
9. 27.90 ft on 05-29-2016
10. 27.50 ft on 10-19-1985
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For some reason the UK media has not been blaming climate change for the floods so far.
They have also avoided the issue in regards to all the recent Greece, Crete, Turkey etc. wildfires. Perhaps it’s because they nearly always turns out to be set deliberately, and in Turkey claimed by a Kurdish terrorist offshoot.
Keeping their powder dry for the next COP possibly?
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Concerning Camp Mystic where the children were tragically killed, the camp was built on a known flood plain.
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Flash flooding is common, especially in ravines and gullies. it is how they are formed. And an extremely dangerous sport in some countries, until people die. Again. The narrower the gully, the faster the water. Even in the desert, where rain is rare and flash floods in narrow ravines far more dangerous. This was a tragedy waiting to happen.
But people become complacent and memory fades. The other unknown aspect is how incredibly heavy and long the rains can be in very wet East Texas, East of the Pecos river and lasting for days. I expect comparable to our Innisfail region in far North Queensland but flat. This is the half of Texas which borders Mississippi and a very different tropical climate next to the Caribbean in mid summer, so very high evaporation. Tornadoes and Hurricanes are usually the problem and massive rainstorms are common. The weather is far more dangerous in America or Tornado Alley than people realise in other countries. In calm weather these are attractive very green areas, especially along waterways. But it also happens in total desert.
For example the ancient city of Petra in Jordan where it almost never rains experiences this disaster, but not predictably. The Nabateans built this city in the desert by capturing the rare rain water in cisterns and piping. The ‘valley of the crescent moon’ or Siq featured in Raiders of the Lost Ark was carved by such flash floods is an amazing feature of Petra, but created by such flooding.
Rediscovered and quite amazing for the rock carving, Petra has become very popular but in one year drowned 25 tourists. Recently too. The ancient Nabateans knew all about the flash floods and built a dam, but it fell into ruin and was never understood by the archaeologists and tour operators, until people died. Even today thousands are evacuated when the rains come and the high risk of flash flooding.
What is also amazing is that very local tragedies like this never made world news before. They happen all over the world. But now weather caused disasters are big news in a world where it’s all someone’s fault. Rosie O’Donnell in Ireland blames Donald Trump for the tragedy. And gets world attention in the press.
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And are we being manipulated by the press? Is this to wipe out Trump’s July 4th triumph and get it off the front pages? No one cared as much about the destroyed towns in North Carolina. Or the floods in Libya where 8,000 died?
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For example “The death toll from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina is at least 107, with some reports indicating the number may be as high as 121. The hurricane, which made landfall on September 27, 2024, caused widespread destruction, particularly in the western Appalachian region of the state. ”
But the Biden government ran out of billions in emergency funds, the money spent on illegal aliens. And the area was explicitly given low priority as a Republican voting area.
While every tragedy is important, did the editors look around for a Climate tragedy which could ruin the day of triumph for Donald Trump. It sure looks like it. Anything to get the hated Trump off the front pages. And they even interviewed Trump Derangement refugee Rosie O’Donnell in Ireland to say Trump was directly responsible. Such people are called commediennes. Why?
Can the media get any worse?
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I notice the media are putting nails in Trump’s coffin. The disaster in Texas is being labelled, the “Independence Day Tragedy”. Now way will Donald Trump’s triumphal celebration be remembered as the media erase history. And blame Donald Trump.
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The MSM has never heard of Mother Nature.
This sort of thing was happening Hundreds of thousands and probably many millions of years ago with no people or MSM ‘Reporters’ involved.
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The camp was built in 1926 so the event in 1869 would likely have been long forgotten.
The event in 1915 was 10 years before the camp was built and it may be there was no one with local knowledge to say anything.
However the other events in Grims list should have meant that at the very least a good evacuation plan was put in place, or the camp actually relocated
Presumably there will be severe repercussions with those running the camp.
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I think such events remain in the cultural memory of a place and often flood levels are indicated on buildings, posts, trees etc..
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1987
“It’s at least the second such disaster in the area, following an overflow that killed 10 teen campers nearly 38 years ago to the day.”
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Seen sudden flash flooding in a few places in N Aus. Pretty amazing. Chatter in US that company Rainmaker were cloud seeding just before the floods. They’ve denied any on 2 specific days preceding the event. Rainmaker established by a couple of billionaire “baddies”. Watching with interest.
Meanwhile, also in Texas
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Well, THAT bridge wasn’t built in China! When the water reaches road level and debris start piling up against the bridge the stress across the road level must be tremendous!
I’m amazed how the glass windows in the house survived, the stresses on the whole structure must be great there too.
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Again and I know this is boring but global death rates from natural disasters have fallen off a cliff since 1960.
Before 1960 deaths from droughts and floods were the big killers, but today very few die from all of the natural disasters and Dr Koonin has repeatedly belted his opponents with the extreme weather deaths.
Again just 3 billion people at risk in 1960 and 8.2 billion today. Think.
The Texas drownings are a tragedy and let’s hope we learn from this disaster.
Again, when will we wake up and start to THINK?
BTW the graphs are active, just check out the decadal average for each disaster.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/decadal-average-death-rates-from-natural-disasters
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BTW here’s the global death rates from fires and burns and differences between poor to rich countries etc.
Autralia today just 0.2 deaths per 100,000 and NZ 0.3 deaths.
Note the big improvement in Africa and over 1 BILLION more people since 1980.
Again, we live in the safest period in Human history and yet hardly anyone understands the data. Why is it so?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fire-death-rates?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~OWID_LIC~OWID_HIC~OWID_UMC~OWID_LMC~NZL~AUS~African+Region+%28WHO%29
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Based on the size of the trees in the flood plain, I estimated they would be around 30 years old so went looking fort flood history and found this:
https://dailytimes.com/news/kerr-county-has-long-history-of-floods/article_3c0dabaf-5abd-442b-8c01-ed682d8cb1e7.html
2025 will likely be more devastating because there have been 20 lost from a summer camp and a number of others missing.
The engineering for the bridge is questionable. I would expect the soffit level of a modern main highway bridge to be designed to handle a 2000yr ARI flood level. I expect the current flood is less than 100yr ARI. However the build quality is impressive given the amount of debris it was damming up.
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Obviously nobody had planted gum trees upstream. Yet! That would have tested that bridge.
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I’ve flown over the Kerrville area and points south. Low ridges with creeks in the valleys. The creeks are dry or have low flows normally but the beds are filled with soccer ball sized boulders which seem to be piled up here and there. Ask yourself how this happens.
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Trump?! 😂
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Speaking of ignoring warnings. I was in Terminal C @ Denver Int’l when it was announced that a tornado was north of the airport. People rushed to the large glass windows to see it. Being a dumb, cowardly Texan, I went directly to the rest room until the all clear was announced. No one was harmed.
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In the same vein, many of the most impressive natural features in USA to visit are the Chaneled Scablands in eastern Washington State, caused by the periodic Missoula Floods. You need at least three days to visit the many landforms. The geologist J Harlen Bretz was the first to explain the cause of the floods (periodic emptying of Lake Missoula’s glacial melt water). He was ridiculed for suggesting great flood events were the cause of the landforms (not fashionable to believe in Noah-type floods) but later in his life he was lauded for his scientific observations.
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Central Washington University professor Nick Zentner and others have made videos of the landscapes of Washington State. Find by searching for “Nick On The Rocks“.
And yes, the Scablands controversy was one of the great scientific debates. Bretz lived to see his ideas vindicated.
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Some of the vids of this event I have seen are people recording the flood event and 6 other people in the same shot videoing on their phones. Including state troopers. It’s very typical of weather events these days with so many more people capturing them on their phones. Very often live streaming. Then what happens, the climate alarmists can’t wait to share. Usually the same when eg. a wind turbine catches fire and all us sceptics can’t wait to pass it on. We’re in an infowar guys. Not sure who is winning though.
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According to Trove newspaper records the Hunter River NSW has according to local indigenous people had floods reaching far higher than any since white settlement after 1788, and one earlier when above the high tide point the Hunter was completely dry during a drought and locals went into the Great Dividing Range to obtain spring water.
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There’s flooding , and then there’s flooding . . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4I3tk9GS_o
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I recommend turning the sound off.
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But wait , there’s more :-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjGyDg7l2tE
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It brings back memories of the flash floods that periodically cut off the access from our farm when I was a child in the NSW Upper Hunter. I can recall during the usual stupid things like running in front of the initial surge as it progressed down the creek. We even did this once at our one teacher school before we were made to stop. Of course, our particular floods were nothing like these Texas deluges, and were confined to the creek beds.
Incidentally, although our recent disastrous floods on our far northern NSW area occupied the newspapers for a few days, the recent extensive southern Qld floods seem to have faded from the news very quickly. Yet, they were so intense that very old homesteads that had never been under water had floodwater almost to roofline. One particular instance saw a disastrous attempted rescue of the owners from their roof by a very valiant helicopter pilot. The chopper went down and although the owners were able to reach the roof, the pilot seemed lost in the waters. He was, thankfully, discovered hours later by rescuers in boot. He was found clinging to a tree amidst the waters. All quickly forgotten by most of Australia.
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The Wollombi tavern has been flooded several times. In the last ten years.
Precondition is that the ground has to be soaked first, then a heavy deluge that can’t seep into the ground and the sudden surge that is constricted just down stream by a narrowing of the valley.
Water almost touched the internal ceiling last time.
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The Gundagai flood of 1852. After this, they moved the Town to a higher elevation. Smart people.
https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/gundagai-flood-1852
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FWIW – on that Texas flood
“Flash Flood Alley”
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2025/07/06/flash-flood-alley/
And comments
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And a dam has broken upstream and search teams are being pulled back
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Obviously what we need to do, is send scientists into caves to look for rare deep cave water, bring it back to a lab and fast evolve it into flash flood water.
We can’t stop catastrophes unless we create catastrophes in labs for practice, and to teach the people to allow themselves to protected from catastrophes.
(If any of the altered cave water escapes from the lab, we can just call people conspiracy theorists.)
Or, we could just correct the global weather so that floods, droughts and hurricanes never happen like before 1850.
We can’t stop curses if we continue to allow non-believers amongst us.
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He had a lot more faith in the bridge than I would have had as the water pressure built up against the deck. I wonder if it has survived.
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FYI: I am a retired meteorologist who has specialized in extreme weather for 50+ years. I’ve written two books about the U.S. storm warning system. As of this moment (1844 UTC Tuesday), 105 are dead and it appears the total death toll will be around 130. There are a number of issues which should be investigated. I don’t know whether they will be or not. Unlike Great Britain, the U.S. does not have an agency that investigates disasters like its National Transportation Safety Board which handles aviation accidents, et cetera.
Several points to make about an above comment: The staffing at the San Angelo NWS office is irrelevant to the ~90 people killed in Kerr County where the camps were located. None of the rivers handled by the San Angelo office flow into or out of Kerr County. Those rivers are handled by the San Antonio office of the National Weather Service. The San Antonio office had 3 extra people on duty for a total of 5 as the excessive rain fell and the flooding developed. The NYT couldn’t try to tie the San Antonio office to President Trump’s NWS cuts and so misleadingly wrote about a neighboring office.
If you wish to read about the flood itself, the warnings and how it developed: https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2025/07/we-didnt-know-this-flood-was-coming.html
If you would like to read questions and answers about this catastrophic event: https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2025/07/catching-up-on-comments-and-questions.html
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