Renewables facing “Enron-style collapse” says Venture Capitalist — Sustainability has become a dirty word

By Jo Nova

Burning Money AheadWord is spreading openly of the awful third quarter results in wind and solar power, and in EV’s. Morningstar noted some $14 billion dollars moved out of sustainability funds in the last quarter even before the dismal results were announced. This is only a small part of the $300 billion total, but it’s a big bad shift in momentum in a sector that is supposed to be going exponential and theoretically “the next big thing”.

Two years ago funds were tagging anything they could with Sustainability. But the term has become a dirty word, and so has ESG. Funds that were enthusiastically adding these green terms to their titles are now dropping them and backing away slowly…

With major daily business newspapers now reporting the bad news it’s hard to see what will stop the slide — only massive subsidies would do that (temporarily), but the US has already done that with the bizarrely named Inflation Reduction Act.

But make no mistake,  there is a $300 billion industry begging for help and a lot of politicians who don’t want to admit their renewables push was an economic disaster. The German government has bailed out Siemens, and the UK government is throwing money at wind power to try to get investors back. It’s like communism by stealth. The government demands industries do magical things, then when they fail, it saves them, making industry increasingly serve governments instead of customers. But the money, or the system can’t go on forever…

 

Wall Street Journal Logo

Wall Street’s ESG Craze Is Fading

By Shane Shifflett, Wall Street Journal

Wall Street rushed to embrace sustainable investing just a few years ago. Now it is quietly closing funds or scrubbing their names after disappointing returns that have investors cashing out billions.

The third quarter was the first time more sustainable funds liquidated or removed ESG criteria from their investment practices than were added, according to Morningstar. That is a reversal from not that long ago, when companies were rebranding faltering funds to cash in on the billions of dollars flowing into sustainable investment products.

At least five other funds also announced they would drop their ESG mandates this year, while another 32 sustainable funds will close, according to data compiled by Morningstar and The Wall Street Journal.

One  venture capitalist says Net Zero policies are political pipedreams, and Venture Capitalists knew years ago that industries dependent on government handouts might collapse like Enron:

 

Financial Post logo

Net-zero policies colliding with economic reality

Henry Geraedts, Financial Post

As early as 2018, key industry executives warned that the renewables sector risked an Enron-style collapse because of its insatiable subsidy-dependence. That unwinding is now happening across the wind, solar and EV industries, and it’s driven by dynamics unlikely to be reversed.

As demand falters, skyrocketing costs are outstripping even massive subsidies.

Faced with crippling technical problems, growing warranty exposure and companies like Shell walking away from multi-billion-dollar projects, industry leaders Orsted, Vestas and Siemens Gamesa are in structural financial crisis, their shares down by 30 to 60 per cent. Siemens Energy’s recent request for a $16-billion bailout prompted BP’s head of renewable energy to say the industry was “broken.”

What we are witnessing are not bumps in the road to an inevitable clean energy transition but evidence of socio-economic realities unravelling the politics of net zero — including the fiction that we must urgently and radically re-engineer our societies to stop a supposed climate catastrophe that in fact isn’t.

Henry Geraedts worked in venture capital internationally. His PhD is in international political economy, with an interest in strategic aspects of energy and technology.

Three weeks ago the head of renewables for BP used the word “broken”:

BP Executive Describes The U.S. Offshore Wind Industry As “Fundamentally Broken”

Reuters, Nov 1

The offshore wind industry, one of the fastest growing energy sectors, has recently suffered a string of major setbacks due to equipment reliability issues, supply chain problems and sharp cost increases.

Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, BP’s head of gas and low carbon, said that problems in the United States included permitting, the time lag between signing power purchase agreements and projects being built and a lack of inflationary adjustment mechanisms.

“Ultimately, offshore wind in the U.S. is fundamentally broken,” Dotzenrath told an FT Energy Transition conference in London.

The profit margins are so thin, and the approval process is so long and complex (because they use so much space), that inflation is eating their returns before they even start.

h/t Marcel, Willie Soon and NetZeroWatch.

10 out of 10 based on 101 ratings

95 comments to Renewables facing “Enron-style collapse” says Venture Capitalist — Sustainability has become a dirty word

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    “offshore wind… is fundamentally broken”.

    To paraphrase Clarke & Dawes –

    Whaddaya mean – the blades fell off?

    420

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Yep, finance is the only measure.

    143

    • #
      James Murphy

      A bit presumptive perhaps, but if you’re being sarcastic, then what do you recommend as the best indicator or group of indicators to gauge the vitality and longevity of the “renewable energy” industry?

      350

    • #
      David Maddison

      Yep, finance is the only measure.

      But don’t we keep getting told that wind is the “cheapest and most reliable form of electricity production”.

      The “transition” should be a no-brainer, no?

      And please remind your Chicomm clients that they are making an expensive mistake building two coal power stations per week when wind is much cheaper and more reliable.

      761

    • #
      BrianTheEngineer

      Fitz, you can have as many green electrons as you like as long as you pay all of the costs for them.

      211

    • #
      Boambee John

      True.

      Please explain why the cheapest form of electricity requires a high level of ongoing subsidies.

      220

    • #
      Shannon Pace

      Renewables being ‘cheaper’ for all of us peasants was one of the pillars of why we should be moving to them.

      So, yes, ‘finance’ is a very important measure and just another one that has been proven to be complete tripe.

      Try again.

      140

    • #
      markx

      finance is the only measure

      Seems important… particularly when you remember the statements that it was going to be an incredibly cheap power source.

      120

    • #
      Sceptical+Sam

      Yep. That’s the measure, all right.

      However, they Fundies are throwing good money after bad.

      And, the German Govt “bailout” ensures no cash changes hands upfront. It’s a guarantee for 7.5 billion euros only.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-government-unveils-deal-siemens-energy-guarantees-2023-11-14/

      The Fundy fools are on their own. And remember, Siemens Energy is a subsidiary of Siemens AG. Siemens AG has big pockets. Thems the ones that the delusional ESGers like to get their sticky paws into.

      Fools and their money. (In this case, their clients’/shareholders’ money).

      50

      • #
        Gerry, England

        The German economy is cratering so badly their failed government is promising taxpayers cash left right and centre. To try to stop the industrial collapse they are going to fund a chip foundry that will see the highest subsidy per job almost anywhere.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Word is spreading openly of the awful third quarter results in wind and solar power, and in EV’s.

    That just means that they need more subsidies….

    /sarc

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Which the UK government has obliged (they assume that the public will pay up as they have so far).

      150

    • #
      another ian

      And twice as much wind and solar – –

      (more sarc)

      60

    • #
      Konrad

      No Peter, finance is not the “only measure”, it’s just how reality manifests itself to those illiterate at science and engineering.

      The engineering reality is that wind power connected to pumped storage has an ERoEI ratio (energy returned on energy invested) of barely 3:1. Old sub-critical coal returns 30:1. Hydro power 70:1. We last ran our civilization on an ERoEI of 3:1 back in the days of charcoal burning. And that is right back where we will end up if we allow the scientifically illiterate to have any say in our engineering decisions.

      What is the Bettz limit? What is the the Shockley-Queissir limit? The financial death spiral of businesses and societies that ignored these scientific limits is just the observable manifestation of reality slapping them upside their empty green heads.

      150

  • #
    Raving

    The term for Wind + solar + battery storage is ‘enshittification’.

    Platform Decay

    Please see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification

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    • #
      Raving

      Think about it ….

      The degradation of the network because of rent seeking intermittent renewables takes money away from base-loaded reliability. This leads to Platform Decay

      Yes, renewables and their storage creates real electricity but it also takes real money away from a real 24 hrs guaranteed base load driven utility..

      This really does create network decay (enshittification)

      300

      • #

        And when the accounting is done, the fingerprints and dna will be scrubbed from the scene of the crime; and a crime it is.

        120

        • #
          Muzza

          Like the COVID disaster, the architects of the energy debacle will expect ‘forgiveness’ from the masses.

          Don’t forget, and definitely don’t forgive. They need to be held accountable.

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          • #

            In Oz, the Albanese guvuhmint won an election with the promise to slash $275 off household power
            bills by 2025 and double the level of renewable energy by 2030. This is already appearing disastrous with a shut down
            of the national electricity market last winter and electricity bills continuing to surge…And there’s that Guvuhmint
            Snowy River hydro-expansion scheme in NSW with a multi billion dollar blow-out and time line shot to pieces…

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      • #
        John PAK

        The thermal cycling damage when we back-off big coal units needs to be talked about publicly. We are shortening their life by NOT running them flat out 24/7. Pump storage is inefficient but if you have almost free power at night why not use it up and be able to retrieve a portion later. I’d be building a huge pipeline from the Au tropics of Northern Queensland and pumping their surplus water to inland NSW.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Sustainability has become a dirty word

    Sustainability has indeed become a dirty word.

    But like all redefinitions of words by the Left it didn’t use to be.

    Back in the day, sustainability used to mean living within your means.

    Now the devious subsidy-harvesting and civilisation-destroying schemes invented by the Elites and supported by their vast slave army of useful idiots of the Left lead to massive debt, economic and scientific stagnation and regression, endless lies about supposed catastrophic “climate change” (sic) or that “wind power is the cheapest method of electricity production” (a lie that is completely blatant and obvious to those few of we thinking people left) and ever more totalitarian government policies to keep the whole sham going etc..

    It is not going to end well and is not sustainable.

    The claim that wind and solar is “sustainable” (sic) is just another oxymoron of the Left like:

    War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. (Orwell)

    It is also an example of doublethink. As described by Winston Smith in Nineteen Eighty Four doublethink is.

    To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself—that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word—doublethink—involved the use of doublethink.

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    • #
      Lance

      Free Markets define what is Sustainable.

      Government interference with Free Markets define Graft, Corruption, Greed, Power Lust, and Malfeasance.

      It has always been so.

      Without Government interference, no unsustainable market would exist, because Reality would have the overriding vote.

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    • #
      Gerry, England

      On a visit to the Windsor Estate while the great Duke of Edinburgh was still alive, a lot of us were interested in what contact the forestry team had with him. The former manager quoted him as saying ‘Sustainability! I hate that bloody word!’ No wonder the man was in despair at the eco-fascist activist mob the WWF had become.

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  • #
    Penguinite

    Black-Out Bowen fumbles and stumbles in an all-consuming crisis. Calamity meets Reality. It’s like one of those reality TV shows! The people will have to wait until the next election to terminate this sad reflection of Democracy.

    401

    • #
      James Murphy

      Reality matters not. The perception upheld by the media is that only Labor can guide the country to the promised land of Net Zero, with Bowen occasionally delivering renewable stone tablets and parting various rising seas.

      281

    • #
      David Maddison

      The people will have to wait until the next election to terminate this sad reflection of Democracy.

      And what happens then?

      The Liberals (pretend conservatives) being the other half of the Uniparty are just as bad.

      In fact, it was Liberals under thst weasel Howard that first allowed non-dispatchable “generators” to connect to the grid, gave away much of our gas supply to the Chicomms at world’s cheapest prices on a 30yr contract with no provision for inflation or market price and it was the cockroach Turnbull who signed us up to the Paris Agreement.

      Dutton claims to support nuclear power but only because he believes in the anthropogenic global warming fraud and secondly, because he knows that in Australia such a project would never go ahead in his lifetime or anyone else alive in today’s “can’t do” Australia.

      Plus the economic damage of wind and solar is so great and the cost to remove it (by buying out contracts) is so enormous that even if people elected a rational government of United Australia Party, Liberal Democrats and One Nation, Australia’s prospects would still be dire due to the huge cost of removing wind and solar.

      492

      • #
        Glenn

        Absolutely correct David. It’s an industrial sized disaster and the LNP are simply the lesser of two hopeless political parties.

        331

        • #
          David Maddison

          For Australia’s future we only have to look at Venezuela.

          It used to be an unthinkable comparison, but that’s no longer the case.

          We just haven’t needed to start eating our zoo animals, yet.

          And if you think the police wouldn’t co-operate with government to willingly commit violence against the people and participate in a dictatorship, or that they wouldn’t patrol the streets in Lenco Bearcat armoured personnel carriers….it’s already happened in Australia under covid (especially Victoria). That was the trial run.

          462

          • #
            John Connor II

            And the next global Covid-rivalling disaster is coming sooner than you think, and will make Covid pale, so the WEF says.

            I’ll tell you what’s coming.
            It’s a triple-whammy of global extreme natural events, cyber events that’ll make everything to date look trivial, and a new horror disease born from man not nature.
            2024 – 2028.
            Fun times ahead!

            81

            • #
              John PAK

              Straying O/T but personal cyber protection is easy.
              Never store much money in a digital platform.
              Only access the ‘net via one computer. Keep an old computer to do everything else. Transfer files via an external drive. Western Digital sell 2 terabytes of hard drive for AU$100 so back-up frequently and then unplug.
              Return to a pre-computer life-style as much as possible. My A3 paper wall planner functions okay for my work as does the address book my mother sent me to boarding school with in 1968. Pay by cash if possible. The only place which refuses my cash is Insurance Group Au (NRMA Insurance). Depositing cash to someone’s bank account still works fine for me.
              By all means, be a sucker for the system but don’t complain when it lets you down.

              21

      • #
        DOC

        David, we now can’t escape the horrendous bill of ‘the huge cost of removing wind and solar’, regardless of what we do. Eradicate the whole mess now, or continue with it. Every year, as the equipment runs out of life, we will have the crazy position of having to remove and replace at the same time the government tries to keep expanding it at a faster and faster pace.
        Zero emissions by 2030 will be zero economy and zero effective energy supply. The costs of doing both expansion plus removal and replacement simply means the economy will be like a rat chasing its tail faster and faster on its little ferris wheel. The rat will die from the extreme exercise just as must our economy.

        160

      • #
        Rupert Ashford

        The Liberals sent me an email pointing out that it’s now 18 months (I think) under Albanese and pointing out all the lies and failure. I replied to them along the lines of your post.

        70

      • #
        Lawrie

        You say that we would have to buy out the wind and solar contracts if we had a courageous government that moved to nuclear for example. Did Howard and subsequent governments buy out the coal fired power stations when their policies took away market share yet demanded they run inefficiently to back up the unreliables? No they did not. So we have arrived in a situation where the subsidies needed to encourage unreliables is insufficient after twenty years to keep the free or very cheap power sources functioning. It seems to me the horse died and yet the jockey is still using his whip so it behooves the taxpayer to withdraw the funding so as they can invest in something that works and provides a benefit to them. Why not demand the unreliables produce power 24/7? They would then have to enter into contracts with the reliables in order to keep their licence to provide electricity.

        81

  • #

    A government/ecoloonies mandate that is badly failing which should be a lesson for anyone who craves freedom to spend their own money the way they want to.

    200

    • #

      Oh the wind it isn’t blowing
      And the weather it is snowing
      And the energy ain’t flowing.
      It’s closing time.

      Oh the country’s debt is growing,
      The economy is slowing
      Our security is going.
      It’s Net Zero closing time.

      H/t Leonard Cohen

      160

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN there is no climate emergency, or crisis or Biden’s loony EXISTENTIAL THREAT.
    Willis Eschenbach has proved beyond doubt that they’ve been telling us lies and BS and FRAUD for decades and yet the left wing extremists still BELIEVE their delusional nonsense?
    We must only build BASE- LOAD energy ASAP and stop wasting money on idiocy like TOXIC W & S and start to recover our sanity and common sense.
    It’s a big task I know, but the sooner we start the better.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/wheres-the-emergency/

    360

  • #
    John

    See also https://signup.fattail.com.au/X920Z951 where Greg Canavan of Fat Tail investment advisory service says that Net Zero won’t happen in Australia and that oil and gas stocks have a big future.

    200

  • #
    Tony Dique

    wonderful. Just in time for Christmas ho ho ho

    120

  • #
    John Hultquist

    The not-so-good news can be seen by searching with

    layoffs news 2023

    Being an old fart, I am no longer in the work force, but I do sympathize.
    Action plan — if you have some money spend it.
    Search-up: velocity of money

    140

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN here’s the 2022 TOTAL World primary energy share by source from OWI Data.

    Fossil fuels 85.37% + Traditional Biomass 6.91% = 92.28%.

    TOXIC W & S = 2.13%. In 2022.

    When will they WAKE UP and start to THINK?

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy-share-inc-biomass

    130

  • #
    david

    Just build HELE and / or Gas power plants. Problems solved. Ask the Indians and the Chinese how to do it.

    How to ruin a country? Increase immigration and reduce power availability.

    Peter Dutton where are you?

    240

    • #

      Those Chinese USC, and now Advanced USC coal fired plants (HELE) are three and four levels of technology higher than Australian Coal fired plants, emitting way way less percentages of CO2 than ours, and delivering more reliable power, more efficiently.

      I mean, it’s the equivalent of driving a Generation one Kingswood on the roads. It still does the job, but is so close to being ‘clapped out’, it’s no wonder the greens get mileage out of saying how ancient they are, because, umm, they ARE actually ancient. And almost ALL coal fired plants are older than any wind plant will ever even get close to reaching.

      And still they just keep on chugging along.

      I mean, let’s take just last week.

      The WHOLE of the wind fleet in Australia delivered just 335 GWH of power across the whole seven days, at a Capacity Factor of just under 20% for the week.

      Bayswater delivered 244 GWH of power from just three of its operating Units, so 73% of what wind delivered.

      Wind has a Nameplate of 10277MW compared to Bayswater with 2640MW, so wind is almost FOUR times greater Nameplate.

      Now seriously, I wouldn’t mind them sinking trillions into wind ….. IF IT ACTUALLY WORKED.

      Pity it doesn’t eh!

      Tony.

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  • #
    Neville

    Of course the Acceleration and Deceleration of SLs are no different today than in the 1940s when co2 levels were only about 307 ppm.
    Here’s a graph showing 3 of the most well known scientist’s groups conclusions.
    And Daniel Fitzhenry pointed out the same Accelerations and Decelerations since 1914 using the BOM data for Fort Denison NSW.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/30-year-trailing-sea-level-acc-3-datasets.png

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  • #
    Kalm Keith

    I certainly hope that the “collapse” is sustainable.

    Susstainability has had its day.

    Now as DM says, we should follow up with a good assessment of what happened, identify the perpetrators and finally, Punish them.

    160

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    When NetZero is finally acknowledged as a ‘train wreck’, whether slow or fast, what then? One thing for sure, most of us will foot the bill, whilst the banksters decamp with the funds; and more than likely, become CEO of another Ponzi rort.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Sadly that’s an accurate summary.

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    • #

      What we are likely to see is the relative collapse of the west as the western economies now buried in debt find it impossible to recover from the Net Zero induced economic slowdown, whilst the rest of the world, notably China and Russia, who have done much more than any others to encourage the ecoloons extremists in our mids, take the opportunity to leap frog over the rotting corpse of the west and become the new global superpowers.

      Anyone who saw Russia was funding the western green groups, could have figured out why they were funding the green groups and how they were using the green eco-loons to destroy the west.

      200

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    WARMUNIST PROPAGANDA DEBUNKED:

    The Entire Metric for Global Warming Accords is Absurd

    https://www.frontpagemag.com/the-entire-metric-for-global-warming-accords-is-absurd/

    60

  • #
    John B

    What does Sweden see which Labor doesn’t?
    Sweden plans ‘massive’ expansion of nuclear energy

    “We are now delivering a pearl string of decisions to pave the way for new nuclear power,” said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Energy, Business and Industry Ebba Busch. “Sweden is laying the foundations to become a leading nuclear power nation again and a power factor for the green transition in the West.”
    Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson added: “New nuclear power is necessary for a stable and reliable energy system, for both consumers and businesses. It is therefore natural that the state will have to take a large financial role in terms of the expansion. The last few years have shown how expensive it is not to build nuclear power.”

    130

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Years of seeing wind energy not delivering the promises?
      Or possibly seeing the electricty price drop 74% when Finland started their new nuclear plant?

      120

  • #

    And across the western world, there doesn’t seem to be a single country which doesn’t absolutely loath the politicians currently in power, nor a single party in power that doesn’t loath its own electorate. Net Zero has delivered every it promised … except success.

    And when we look at the actual climate … well … I’ve given up looking at the actual climate because it’s REALLY REALLY boring as nothing at all is happening. I’ve spent time watching paint dry and seen more happen.

    I suppose what this means is the politicians will be looking for a new scam now as climate isn’t delivering at all for them.

    130

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    We all know it’s not the “next big thing” but can only be viable with a lot of subsidies and market manipulation from government, and governments are running out of money.

    80

  • #
    John Connor II

    Richest 1% account for more carbon emissions than poorest 66%

    The richest 1% of humanity is responsible for more carbon emissions than the poorest 66%, with dire consequences for vulnerable communities and global efforts to tackle the climate emergency, a report says.

    The most comprehensive study of global climate inequality ever undertaken shows that this elite group, made up of 77 million people including billionaires, millionaires and those paid more than US$140,000 (£112,500) a year, accounted for 16% of all CO2 emissions in 2019 – enough to cause more than a million excess deaths due to heat, according to the report.

    For the past six months, the Guardian has worked with Oxfam, the Stockholm Environment Institute and other experts on an exclusive basis to produce a special investigation, The Great Carbon Divide. It explores the causes and consequences of carbon inequality and the disproportionate impact of super-rich individuals, who have been termed “the polluter elite”. Climate justice will be high on the agenda of this month’s UN Cop28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates.

    The Oxfam report shows that while the wealthiest 1% tend to live climate-insulated, air-conditioned lives, their emissions – 5.9bn tonnes of CO2 in 2019 – are responsible for immense suffering.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/richest-1-account-for-more-carbon-emissions-than-poorest-66-report-says

    Hands up if you’re surprised in the least.

    70

  • #
    RicDre

    I still have a few shares in the manufacturing company I retired from, so I generally listen to their quarterly financial results calls. In past years, a mention of ESG would always turn up at least once in the calls, though it has been absent in the last two calls. I guess I have to be happy with any steps toward sanity, even if small.

    50

    • #
      Ross

      If you have shares managed by any of the big banks in Australia, all your stocks and any prospective ones have ESG ratings. So, I use the “reverse” rating method. If a share/stock has a low ESG rating, it’s probably pretty good value.

      120

  • #
    Neville

    Willis Eschenbach has made another calculation using direct measurements over time and found agreement with Lewis & Dr Curry, Dr Christy & Prof Mc Kitrick, Dr Happer, Dr Lindzen etc of about 1.4 C to 1.7 C increase for a doubling of co2.
    Of course the AMO will probably start the COOL PHASE soon and then they’ll be whining about the drop in temperature in the NH, Greenland etc.
    If we ever double co2 levels from 280 ppm (in 1750) to 560 ppm we shouldn’t forget that the next doubling ( impossible?) would require co2 levels to reach 1120 ppm.
    And the warming effect would be the same as the previous doubling from 280 ppm to 560 ppm.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/20/dlr-curiosities/

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    • #
      DOC

      On this blog a couple of weeks ago was mention of I believe a US Scientist that had a life time in Climate science and related topics and was giving a talk in Perth. I’m sorry my memory isn’t great to be more specific and I can’t find him on the listed topics on the home page.

      However, for what its worth, he agreed with the temperature increase with the doubling of [CO2}atm, at around the same figures quoted above. BUT, he said there is a saturation point on the CO2 concentrations such that there would be minimal further increase in world average temperature with a further increase in [CO2]atm beyond that point!

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      • #
        PeterPetrum

        Will Happer, I think you mean and yes, it is postulated that the effect of CO2 is an inverse log, that is, the more you have the less effect each increment provides. So, once we get to 600ppm and temperatures have increased (rightly or wrongly due to CO2) by, say, 1°C, then theoretically you would have to get to 1200ppm to get to the next degree. I think Happer is saying that much of the stated increase in “average” world temperatures is due to the UHI effect, mainly in the NH, which is not being properly accounted for and the increase in temperatures claimed is significantly higher than actual. There is NO climate emergency.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Atmospheric CO2 is an irrelevance in the thermodynamics of the system.

      Human Origin CO2 in the atmosphere is essentially immeasurable and so is an irrelevance to an irrelevance.

      We shouldn’t boost the UNIPCCC concept of “dangerous” CO2 by discussions about what temperature rise will be caused by a certain increase in CO2.

      Atmospheric temperature responds to energy from the Sun and that is moderated by orbital mechanics and solar output variations.

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      • #
        John PAK

        Agreed KK, but we do need to dismantle their spurious argument. My problem is that when I say CO2 is close to saturation and all we’re doing is lowering the optical height for CO2, I’ve completely lost most people. Then when I try to explain that CO2 cools the stratosphere, an invisible glass window rises up between us. Fundamentally, most folk are scientifically illiterate. I don’t have a science degree and struggle to explain the infra red absorption / emission spectrum to completely untrained minds.

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    • #
      Steve Keppel-Jones

      Sadly, Neville, Willis doesn’t know a Joule from a Watt, so anything he writes on this subject is full of misconceptions. (As he says, he is “not a theory guy”) I recommend asking an actual physicist instead, and they will tell you that no one has been able to measure the radiant effect of CO2 at the surface yet, and are not likely to.

      10

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    Ross

    The Net Zero policies will still continue under nearly all governments- particularly western ones. Just like solar panels and wind turbines, if “real” markets cant sustain them, the government will just step in and subsidise and support all these crazy policies. I suppose you could say coal and gas electricity generation was also subsidised by the government in Australia to an extent. Because, any major infrastructure for our small ,widely situated populations requires that assistance. It’s the way it’s always been in Australia. Marketing policies based on East Coast USA, Europe or Asian just don’t work here. But at least for coal/gas fired electricity we got excellent value for money. The same cannot be said for Wind/Solar/Hydrogen/ EV’s/ Batteries/ Pumped hydro. We’re just urinating taxpayer money up against the wall or to be non-sexist, peeing it down the toilet.

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      RickWill

      The big income earners for Australia did not have any government support. In fact the governments have sucked money out of the industries through direct royalties and taxation.

      The ports of Dampier, Point Samson and Port Hedland were all built by private funds. The coal ports of Hay Point, Gladstone,Abbott Point, Newcastle and Port Kembla were built by private funding. The rail lines and rolling stock for the iron ore were built by private funds. The rail lines and rolling stock were mostly built by private funds.

      The generation and distribution assets that were built by State government were corporatised and mostly sold off to private interests. Those private interest have kept them going

      The interconnections through outback NSW and Queensland were built by private funds.

      A lot of the road infrastructure that now require tolls were built by private operators.

      You do not need government fund economic projects.

      All of the weather dependent generators exist through mandated theft. If you are a consumer of electricity, you are being robbed through the application of the RET.

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      PeterPetrum

      if “real” markets cant sustain them, the government will just step in and subsidise and support all these crazy policies.

      Indeed, the stupid new Energy Minister in the UK has just offered the offshore wind industry an additional 66% on the original offer to get them to bid and was deranged enough to tell voters that this would bring the price of power down!

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        Renewable and Entropy.

        They thought Renewables
        were here to stay,
        Suss-tainability forever
        and a day,
        Unfortunately suss-tainability
        has lost its way,
        Windmills, solar panels lasting
        less than two decades…
        A Windmill sheds blades
        A Solar panel degrades.

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    Dave in the States

    I heard today that Argentina’s Bureau of Environment and Sustainablity is to be eliminated. A libertarian named Javier Milei won their election in a landslide. With the full economic collapse in Argentina he is promising to drain their swamp and fire most of the bureaucrats. The end of the gravey train. They really have no choice. Mr Milei is not a believer in AGW, and that is what has the left so up in arms. I can’t provide worthwhile links because all I can bring up is the usual suspects. But the MSM world wide is in full melt down. They are in full panic as far as I can tell. Are these the first cracks in the dam worldwide?

    He better have good sercurity and loyal body guards.

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      ozfred

      Hopefully they sell their agricultural output to the highest bidder. Exports have been restricted for the past few years

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    Lawrie

    Some excellent news this morning. The outfit that modelled Chris Bowens promise to have 89% of new cars be EVs by 2030 have reviewed their numbers and issued an updated projection; not 89% but maybe 27%. We probably will need ICE vehicles for many years after 2035 when Bowen wants to stop their sale. Thank goodness Bowen will not be calling the shots then although I am sure there will still be idiots around at that time promoting some other planet-saving-with-Australia-leading impossible dream.

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    • #
      Klem

      The more people learn about EVs, the less they want to buy them. The more insurance companies learn about EVs, the less they want to insure them.

      I predict EVs will be a forgotten memory by 2030.

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    MH

    Goodbye Super funds. The elite will be long gone from these investments while working people will be picking up the debt through compulsory super. Opps! Problem fixed through CBDC’s, universal income and lets fix the climate through a Social Credit system!

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    • #
      Ted1.

      Good bye super funds it is!

      Now just suppose it was Australian scams and Chinese super funds invested in them.

      What then?

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    mwhite

    I believe it goes something like this,-
    The baby boomers(born 1946-1964) are now retiring. The money they have invested for that retirement is being cashed in and used to buy “safe” government bonds to provide an income to see them through their twilight years.
    Subsquent generations are smaller and as a result there is less money to invest, especially on dodgy “feelgood” projects.

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    Honk R Smith

    Sorry Jo,
    I was unable to continue reading this post after beholding this headline …

    “Net-zero policies colliding with economic reality” …

    due to uncontrollable laughter.

    Lately I can hear the distant thunder of collisions with reality.
    The rumble seems to grow slowly closer.

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    Steve

    The green fantasy is just that. Nut-Zero — It-Will-Never-Happen.

    The three immutable laws as we predicted decades ago are now killing the grid scale renewable fairy tale.

    Economics
    Physics
    Engineering

    In Australia, if the current federal opposition party was to say TODAY “we will exit Net-Zero on day 1 if we win office”, they will win the election in a canter.

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      Faye

      All Mr Dutton has to say is… Climate Change and everything connected to it will be cancelled by the Liberal/National Coalition Party on the day we win government.

      No more wasted tax payers’ money thrown away by governments propping up duds that don’t work. No more wrecking the economy with unnecessary high energy prices. No more “friendly” destructive environmental shady groups sucking in the money. No more useless days off school “climate change protesting”. No more being bombarded with LIES in order to keep us ignorant and weak (most important for school children).

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    Kalm Keith

    From a chocolate prompt recently. https://joannenova.com.au/2023/11/monday-30/#comment-2714289

    Small ping.

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    CHRIS

    Renewables is only the tip of the iceberg. The whole global economy is in crisis, and the next ‘crash” is not very far away. The global debt is measured in hundreds of trillions of dollars. How is this going to be paid off?

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    […] The profit margins are so thin, and the approval process is so long and complex (because they use so much space), that inflation is eating their returns before they even start.Jo Nova Blog […]

    10