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Gore Effect goes global: Gas, electricity price shocks mean industry threatened, and may switch to coal in time for COP 26

The COP 26 organizers must be quaking in their chardonnay. Just when they need all the usual hyped up wind powered record headlines, they’re getting headlines of record gas prices, rocketing inflation, and industries thinking about shutting down.

Welcome to the Green Revolution:

UK industry could face shutdowns as wholesale gas price hits record high

Rob Davies and Joanna Partridge, The Guardian

Gas Price, UK

Wholesale gas prices hit new all-time highs on Wednesday, prompting warnings that factories could be forced to shut down over winter or switch to more polluting fuels just as the UK hosts the Cop26 climate conference next month.

Trade body UK Steel said it was now “uneconomic” to make steel at certain times in the UK, with British firms facing double the electricity prices paid by rivals in Germany, France and the Netherlands.

Don’t say “oil” say “polluting fuels that had been abandoned”:

Paul Pearcy, the federation coordinator at the trade body British Glass, said companies that make windows could be forced to revert to powering their furnaces with polluting fuels that had been abandoned.

British Glass makers are thinking of using fuel oil again because gas prices are so unaffordable.  One industry player said with “Cop26 around the corner, it’s not a great advert.”

Indeed.

EU spooked by energy prices running wild & Net Zero in doubt
Bloomberg,

European energy prices are spiraling out of control. Gas prices have surged 60% in just two days, pushing industry in the region to the breaking point and rattling financial markets.

…environment ministers across the bloc are getting jittery, with a number of countries expressing growing concern over the EU’s plans to create a new emissions trading system for road transport and heating — something they deem will hit the poorest most.

Panic is spreading, and prices are rising to the point where people will be forced out of business or back to using coal

Gas and coal reaching levels that destroy demand and growth

by Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank

The global energy crisis continues to gather momentum, and since the Chinese government issued its “whatever cost” order last week, the price of Dutch TTF gas, the European benchmark had by early Wednesday surged more than 80% to EUR 155 per MWh, before witnessing a sharp correction to EUR 115, reflecting an increasingly difficult market situation. The focus on ESG and green transformation has reduced producers’ normal long-cycle capex response to surging prices and rising demand. Without a response from producers, the only other option is for prices to reach levels that triggers demand destruction, and that is the phase we have now entered.

Some real hockey stick graphs in gas, coal, and cost of electricity:

Coal., Gas prices rocket. Graphs.

….

The rally which started in Europe several months ago has during the past months been spreading like a wildfire to the rest of the world. The combination of gas in short supply, and lower-than-expected power generation from solar and wind has forced utilities to buy coal in order to maintain the required baseload across the electrical grid.

To put the current elevated prices in Europe into perspective, the price of Dutch TTF first month gas earlier today reached a record €155 per MWh or $52.5 per MMBtu or around eight times higher than the average seen during the previous five years. German power prices for 2022 delivery have risen to €155 per MWh and more than 4X the five-year average. Tight supply of gas has forced power generators to turn to coal…

Ole Hanson points out that the squeeze may ease up if the weather doesn’t get too cold, or if enough heavy industry shuts down so the storage tanks can be filled before winter.

GWPF says Boris should get serious about Shale Gas:

Boris should kick-start a shale revolution to avoid an energy cost disaster
GWPF & Gaia Fawkes, 7 October 2021

If Boris Johnson wants to avoid a worsening energy crisis that could threaten his premiership sooner rather than later, if he wants to bring down the price of natural gas, if he wants to level up by creating a new and high-wage industry in the North of England, if he wants to energise Britain and improve energy security, he should abandon his foolish ban on shale gas extraction and kick-start the much delayed shale revolution in the UK.

GWPF remind us of what Boris said, not that long ago:

“It [fracking] is glorious news for humanity. It doesn’t need the subsidy of wind power. I don’t know whether it will work in Britain, but we should get fracking right away.” — 9 December 2012, Telegraph

h/t GWPF.

9.9 out of 10 based on 75 ratings

142 comments to Gore Effect goes global: Gas, electricity price shocks mean industry threatened, and may switch to coal in time for COP 26

  • #

    I don.t really disagree with anything the author says, but the plain fact is that cracking is unpopular.

    . Even if it somehow swung into operation the day after Cop26 it would be five years before it became available to use. It is unlikely to ever form more than a small percentage of our needs.

    Modular nuclear reactors are probably a better bet, but again nuclear has been demonised by the greens for 50 years. I lived near aldermaston and greenhsm common and witnessed the demos.

    Quote why this carbon free form of energy was so unpopular with those wanting carbon free energy I do not know.

    So we could use our huge coal fields for energy, but no one would dream of doing that.

    Which leaves, as we go into winter, wind and solar. Solar, as the highly technical amongst you will know, doesn’t tend to work very well at night and during dull winter days will perform weakly.

    We have long periods over the winter when a high pressure system settles over us and we get weeks of dull days and no winds.

    So what will we use for energy? Dunno. Next question please. Or answers on a postcard to boris Johnson 10 downing street London.

    344

    • #

      ” nuclear has been demonised by the greens” I promise you, ‘green’ I’m Not. But nuclear is a deceptive shitshow based on lies.
      First example : https://www.transcend.org/tms/2010/05/the-npt-and-the-nuclear-power-trap/ i.e. developing a generation system based on the use of uranium includes not only unstable end products, but plutonium. The ‘unstable end products’ were the cause of Fukushima meltdowns at the reactors, which were turnkey plants from GE. These were the subject of warning by engineers at both development and construction stages who quit over being ignored about deploying such systems in a historical tsunami zone. YouTube included videos on such. Heck – they were built on the Mississippi River floodway.
      Such implementation is consistent with water warfare and a deliberate ‘poison pill’ technology.http://www.payvand.com/news/04/dec/1186.html From the United States Offering Iran Uranium Enrichment Technology to Suggestions for Creating Catastrophic Industrial Failure

      03

    • #
      Ronin

      Tony, I recently saw a tv show in OZ about the hot rocks under Cornwall, some free energy to be had there, independent of the weather.

      011

      • #
        Lawrie

        Tim Flannery is the expert in hot rocks technology. Rudd gave him $90 million to pursue his hot rocks dream in South Australia. Blew the lot and no power. The idea might be sound but it was impossible to keep the pipes from decaying in the heat and acidic conditions. Good idea failed.

        260

    • #
      Ronin

      Hope you have plenty of candles in the cupboard Tony.

      90

      • #
        tonyb

        Ronin

        I have a portable gas stove, portable gas heater and a small solar generator that could power lights and tv. so provided any cuts are short I will be fine. I am too close to neighbours to have a diesel generator. Those relying on mains power and gas need to plan what will happen if their power goes out for a few days.

        My bigger concern is that people -including western governments-think renewables will save the day and carry out no planning.

        We are short of energy. Many of us saw this coming. What we can do about it is another matter.

        70

    • #
      Ian

      Don’t be too disturbed Tonyb. She’ll be right. An article in Thursday’s UK Guardian stated, inter alia:

      “Officials at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy are understood to be considering measures to speed up the UK’s transition to renewable energy to reduce reliance on gas, including more frequent windfarm auctions.

      Boris Johnson this week pledged to remove fossil fuels from electricity generation by 2035.

      While coal has been all but phased out of power generation, gas can still account for more than 50% of supply on windless days when the sun isn’t shining.

      Kwarteng said on Thursday that reducing reliance would involve boosting wind power, gas plants that use carbon capture and storage to reduce carbon emissions and “at least” one nuclear project.

      The government is expected to rubber-stamp French state-owned energy company EDF’s plans for a the Sizewell C reactor in Suffolk but has yet to find a developer for Wylfa Newydd, on Anglesey.”

      Shadow business minister Ed Miliband said the gas price crisis was “made in Downing Street”.

      “The UK is particularly vulnerable to increases in gas prices because the government allowed our gas storage facilities to close, blocked onshore wind, cut solar subsidies, stalled our nuclear programme and because of their total failure to deliver a long-term plan for energy efficiency.”

      There’s a whole lot more but it isn’ t quite as doom laden as the article in this thread suggests

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/07/risk-of-uk-power-cuts-this-winter-has-increased-says-national-grid

      222

      • #
        clarence.t

        But it is all based on the fantasy that wind and solar can actual provide when needed. !

        They can’t.

        280

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Actually the UK government didn’t ban onshore wind, they just stopped subsidies for new projects.

        170

      • #
        Old Goat

        Ian,
        The guardian ? He he he he. Wishfull thinking won’t change anything when reality bites . Perhaps you should have a look at gridwatch . Gas is currently supplying 31% of the UK power. If the wind drops out and there is no gas what do you think will happen ?

        180

        • #
          Ian

          “The guardian ? He he he he. Wishfull thinking won’t change anything when reality bites .

          Not sure of your point. Why the “he he he he”?? Perhaps you didn’t notice or perhaps forgot, that the article heading this thread is also from The Guardian. I’ve pasted it below to refresh your memory,

          UK industry could face shutdowns as wholesale gas price hits record high

          Rob Davies and Joanna Partridge, The Guardian

          010

          • #
            Old Goat

            Ian,
            Missed my point entirely.This thread is about renewables NOT being able to supply reliable power. The guardian article is about the UK increasing renewables at an increased pace which is not going to supply reliable power.As gas and other sources of fueled generation are taken out wind and solar won’t cut it. If there is a fuel (gas) shortage which is unnecessary the lights and heating will go off. In the UK in winter this is unthinkable.

            180

      • #
        truth

        Not enough OPM obviously.

        Barnaby was chided by The Conversation for saying there might possibly be a cautionary tale for Australia in the European energy crisis.

        They got hold of a UK expert to explain to Barnaby and us that the crisis is nothing whatever to do with their ‘transition’ to net zero.

        It’s because the UK is too reliant on gas…and because there’s not enough gas anyway….and the gas is too expensive …and they haven’t got enough gas stored…and because BREXIT deprives them of cover from the collective…and because they haven’t siphoned off enough TPM to diversify into other renewable widgets and to buy more windmills in case the wind starts blowing again…and what’s all that gas-burning and windmills got to do with ditching coal for net zero ,silly Barnaby….so back in your box….sez she.

        00

    • #
    • #

      So what will we use for energy?; apparently coal has proved quite effective.

      160

    • #
      Furiously+Curious

      Quote why this carbon free form of energy was so unpopular with those wanting carbon free energy I do not know.

      I’ll give you a 3 letter answer to the original unpopularity Tony…..KGB.

      61

    • #

      Tonyb
      October 8, 2021 at 5:46 am ·
      ……..but again nuclear has been demonised by the greens for 50 years. I lived near aldermaston and greenhsm common and witnessed the demos.

      Yes i live there also through that period..
      … but as i recall the demonstrations were against Nuclear Weapons ,..not power.
      Aldermaston was/is the weapons development establishment, and Greenham was the USAF base for (possible) Nuk weapons.
      The Atomic Energy Research center is just up the road at Harwell and there were no protests there !

      100

      • #
        James Murphy

        For a lot of people, there’s no difference between nuclear weapons and nuclear power, it’s all terrifying, and dangerous, apparently… Yet, when faced with a medical condition that may involve treatment with various forms of radiation, or radioactive elements, their fear and distrust often magically evaporates.

        110

      • #
        tonyb

        Chad

        There were several groups that used these places as focal points. Some against nuclear weapons. Some against nuclear generally. Some against everything. Nuclear generally has been tarred with the same brush. However, even if there was an overnight conversion to nuclear (Shellenberger , Michael Moore etc) the practical reality is that any nuclear power station agreed now would not put power into the grid for a decade

        10

    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      I don.t really disagree with anything the author says, but the plain fact is that fracking is unpopular.

      Fracking is not only unpopular, it’s a short-term “solution” to a long-term (never-ending) problem

      • it pollutes the water table
      • the wells decline very quickly
      • it’s hellishly expensive

      The history of the rise and fall of fracking in the US is a very salutary lesson indeed.

      05

    • #
      Ted1

      Tony, you did not know why they were demonstrating?

      In far off rural NSW I knew. The people demonstrating were communists. Most of them living among us, but led and funded by a few globalists.

      Their purpose was to hinder western nations in the Cold War nuclear arms race.

      That arms race ended abruptly at Chernobyl. But the bans they succeeded in getting are still in place.

      10

  • #
    Robdel

    This looming crisis is just what is needed to wake up the populace. Now wait for the lights to go out on cop26. The sooner the better can we return to reality.

    340

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      It will be blamed on Britex.

      110

    • #
      William

      If the fools behind COP26 have any integrity and courage in their convictions, they should be insisting that power for the conference is solely generated by renewables. No switching to gas,coal, oil or nuclear if the wind isn’t blowing. And this must be applied to all venues, restaurants, hotels and other facilities used by delegates. Oh, and EVs powered similarly. Further, they should showcase renewable’s brilliance by insisting that all of the UK do the same over the period of the conference.

      If they do otherwise, they are hypoctrites and should be shamed.

      350

      • #
        Ronin

        Yes , no cheating and fakery like diesel standby generators, if random energy can’t hack it, tell us all.

        240

      • #
        Binny Pegler

        otherwise, they are hypoctrites and should be shamed.

        They ARE hypocrites and they have no shame.

        80

      • #
        tonyb

        William

        Good idea. Perhaps we could start a petition or hold a few marches. Where is Greta when you need her?

        30

        • #
          William

          Saw a very telling meme on FB, Greta demanding that we all drive EVs above a very sad picture of young children in a mine saying “we’re mining the cobolt for your batteries as fast as we can, Greta”.

          Greta needs to be taught some hard truths about the toxicity built into EVs and renewables.

          50

      • #
        truth

        The UK and Europe have made themselves so hopelessly hostage to Russian gas that they seem hardly able to see that gas is fossil fuel any more.

        With Germany’s desperation to have Nordstrom2…and their continued burning of biomass and coal.. how can they possibly pretend that they can ever be net zero …unless by creative accounting…eg not counting biomass emissions?

        They’re having us on.

        20

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    And this is what you get with children in charge of important things like energy…..

    330

    • #
      clarence.t

      Just remember, all this is done “for the children’s future” ( because .. CO2 !?? )

      What they don’t seem to realise, but is now being brought home to them big time…

      … is that there is no future without reliable energy supplies.

      350

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        So that up-tick hockey stick in the graph isn’t the planet’s runaway temperature, it’s the Catastrophic Man-Made Cost Of Living? Zee plan eez verkink!

        160

      • #
        James Murphy

        This is the goal of many, isn’t it? Kill off “rich”, “white” humans, destroy modern technology, regress to pre-industrial times (for everyone except a select few important people, of course)

        50

    • #
      GlenM

      Heavily subsidised intermittent supply from wind and solar undercuts hitherto reliable, efficient and cheap energy sources. All in the name of saving the planet. I don’t believe it.

      170

    • #
      Ronin

      Not just children, retards who wag school.

      110

  • #
    Graham Richards

    The best hi g that could happen right now is the wheels of industry to grind to a big cold halt.
    Let the petrol & diesel fuel supplies reduce by 60/70%, let food shortages cause misery, let unemployment ravage the population.
    Let EVERYONE experience a large dose of ZERO emissions.
    If this nonsense preached by he Green movements proceeds any further the world reach a tipping point where reversal of these insane policies will take up to 50 years or more to reverse. That of course is if that reversal is even possible.

    You, in Europe, have been given an insight & a warning. Use it wisely!!

    300

    • #
      Ronin

      “You, in Europe, have been given an insight & a warning. Use it wisely!! ”

      They are either in complete denial, or completely ignorant, they are saying more unreliables will save them.

      150

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Yeah, much like socialism doenst consistently fail, its “just never been done right”….

        The core issue is left wing politics is inherently anti-human.

        The Left denies that humans need opportunty and freedom to thrive, not restrictions and oppression.

        What we ar seeing globally is a re-emergence but on a global scale of National Socialism.

        The globalists, like their test run baby, the german N*zi party, appear to be at thier core, National Socialists.

        You see this with the harsh treatment of anyone who dares resist them in anything.

        And true to their core beliefs, are being concentration camps here in oz and around the world.

        110

  • #
    Robber

    Perhaps some real education for kids: explain why steam powered engines replaced windmills and drove the industrial revolution.

    330

  • #
    Jojodogfacedboy

    Far too late to go reverse.
    Our politicians burned the bridges behind so that can’t happen when they went all in going green.
    The supply chain is 4 months to a year in getting any supplies ordered as the companies and industries moved or closed.
    So much abandoned infrastructure over the decades are unusable and derelict.

    More business and factories have to close as prices are not going to return back to normal.

    80

    • #
      Ronin

      “Our politicians burned the bridges behind so that can’t happen when they went all in going green.”

      No, the clowns with the matches didn’t get the memo, ‘ burn the bridges AFTER we cross the river’, they have set fire to them BEFORE we crossed the river.

      130

      • #
        Peter C

        I so hope so Ronin, at least as far as We the People are concerned.
        The Polis who have already crossed over should be abandoned. Bye!

        00

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    This is an extraordinary statement illustrating what happens when a society lies to itself.

    Here in Australia we have endured decades of “The Gore Effect” .
    Locally we have seen Aluminium smelters closed because of electricity price hikes or on the verge of closing because of uncertainty of supply.

    Australia wide, the Gore Effect has overseen the closure of much heavy industry and denied sensible access to forests to harvest timber, to the point that Australia now has a serious timber shortage.

    To avoid building dams we have spent incredible sums building token salt water distillation plants; the unions wish to thank all taxpayers.

    In the end we must face the truth:

    Atmospheric CO2 does not drive atmospheric temperature and in fact the reverse is the case; atmospheric temperature drives CO2 levels.

    Some might say we’ve been forced to live in a dream world, but the reality is that it is an evil nightmare forced on us by those self appointed Elites driven by the desire to control and plunder.

    It is amazing that a concept so dramatically at odds with reality can be sustained for so long.

    The pure science of atmospheric physics, thermodynamics and quantitative analysis completely Denies the concept that human origin CO2 in the atmosphere can cause any variation in atmospheric temperature.

    The Gore Effect must be confronted and disassembled Now.

    441

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      It is amazing that a concept so dramatically at odds with reality can be sustained for so long.

      One word – Religion

      Look away where on the planet at any time in human history. The scale and power of religion, defies any attempt to explain it.

      20

    • #
      truth

      When the LW education system started in the 70s and 80s to tell children there was no objective truth…everything relative….no historical facts…facts themselves and ‘knowledge’ were ‘dirty words’…no culture better than another [cultural relativism]the Left was preparing them for activism and the role they were to play in bringing their parents’ generation to heel.

      Children were told that nothing was absolute…everything fluid and open to interpretation…to say something was wrong was to be judgmental…so spelling ..grammar..punctuation were to be left uncorrected to protect fragile buds of creativity.

      It was too stultifying to be taught where events occurred in the timelines of history and relationships between events…for context…so random snatches of the minutiae of history became the fashion.

      So brains were scrambled…unable to make sense of things…options shrank…truth was never objective…and certain sections of generations of kids were and are without the literacy skills to discern truth and meaning in what they read or hear…or to convey it in things they write.

      Not only does this cohort swallow whole the CAGW hoax without asking for or expecting proof or evidence or the science behind it…but they don’t even want to think about that part…after all they’ve learnt that it’s not right to suggest anything is normal or not normal…there are no norms…so there’s only post-normal….and in Mike Hulme of the Tyndal Centre’s post-normal science…a finding cannot be truth…cannot be objective …scientists must trade truth for influence ….so knowing that… no one asks for the truth or even knows any more what’s true or not about anything….the post-truth world.

      20

    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      The pure science of atmospheric physics, thermodynamics and quantitative analysis completely Denies the concept that human origin CO2 in the atmosphere can cause any variation in atmospheric temperature.

      Many thousands of very smart and highly qualified people totally disagree with you, and have the data to back up their position. And 99% of them aren’t in it for financial gain.

      13

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        I thank you for duplicating my comment and spreading it wider because Many thousands of very smart and highly unqualified people totally misrepresent the true situation and have no data to back up their position.
        And 99% of them are in it for financial gain, power and false prestige.

        Thanks again.

        50

      • #
        clarence.t

        And yet you are totally unable to produce any actual real science to back up the conjecture of CO2 causing warming.

        Just “believe” what you are told.. don’t think for yourself… ever !!!

        10

  • #
    Jock

    Our electricity prices will not be affected much. An overhang of touch roof top solar and the fact we don’t make anything any longer!!!

    50

  • #
    William

    It looks like the reckoning we have feared is upon us. At best, I hope Australia will look North during its coming Winter and learn. Sadly renewable zealots are either on the gravy train or to ignorant to realise the con that has seduced them.

    270

    • #
      yarpos

      We didnt learn after the SA and California blackouts.

      We havent learnt from overseas use of Ivermectin.

      We havent learnt from the collapse of overseas Universities under leftist nonsense.

      I doubt the likes of Matt Kean and Lily D’Ambrosio will even notice as they surge towards the inevitable cliff.

      290

    • #
      GlenM

      The media won’t report it and the derros won’t have clue. Largely.

      190

  • #
    yarpos

    To the COP 26 brain this will be contorted to a rationale for more intermittent energy.

    I mean look at those price spikes and supply concerns, clearly the answer is more windmills cause the wind is always blowing somewhere..or something.

    120

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Installing lots of extra wind turbines to solve the problem of the existing ones not producing enough due to the weather might look good to a Greenie, but what happens when the weather changes? There could be too much electricity and what would you do? (Well, the turkeys in the UK would pay extra subsidies to shut them down).

      80

    • #
      Ronin

      Yes, those nasty fossil fuels, extortionate price rises, scarcity, BUT random energy is so much cleaner and nicer, stable prices, even prices reducing, except they aren’t producing anything, only a small problem though, we just need to build more of them… lots more, then it will all come good. LOL

      60

  • #
    David Maddison

    A global energy crisis will be painful but necessary for people to wake up and realise the insanity of unreliables.

    Plus, the Left no longer need the anthropogenic global warming fraud. They have covid to destroy Western Civilisation instead, and much faster and more efficiently than the global warming fraud was ever going to do it.

    170

  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    From the UK Energy Council
    “The UK also relies heavily on gas for home heating and cooking. Yet despite the obvious reliance on fossil fuels for electricity, homes and in heavy industry, the UK has some of the lowest amounts of gas storage capabilities in Europe, leaving the market uniquely exposed to the supply crunch. Less than 1% of Europe’s stored gas is held by the UK.”

    And reserves were not topped up in the summer, and now Gasprom is extracting its revenge

    221

    • #
      Ronin

      So you see gas as the problem ?.

      50

      • #
        Peter+Fitzroy

        not entirely gas is a major fuel in the UK – however, i see short sightedness as the problem, stocks were low, Gazprom sold excess to china, and so the UK could not top up, and now prices are high which is common when there is a supply shortage, which is what is the problem.

        210

    • #
      David Maddison

      But Peter, as a Leftist you want the proles to freeze in the dark.

      What’s the problem?

      171

    • #
      clarence.t

      When there is no wind and no solar, which happens quite regularly, that leaves gas carrying the bulk of the supply.

      They should know this and make sure there is sufficient gas storage to cover those long cold winter period. That means a huge increase in storage needed over that period.

      Or they could just start using their own, which they have plenty of.

      Unfortunately, the stupidity of the leftist greenie agendas just keep getting in the way.

      130

      • #
        Greg

        Clarence t just retread 1984. More relevant now than my first read in the 70s.Reading Atlas Shrugged at the moment and it reflects so much of what is going on at present.All for the common good!

        90

    • #
      R.B.

      Less than 1% of Europe’s stored gas is held by the UK

      UK is 10% of the European population. It closed a North Sea storage facility instead of replacing it, decreasing capacity by 70%, in June 2017, running down in 4 years. The decision was made because

      The UK has highly diverse and flexible sources of gas supply through domestic production and extensive import capability. We expect healthy margins this winter as we continue to upgrade the UK’s energy infrastructure.”

      Basically, it expected to be heating homes with hydrogen by now.

      40

  • #
    Ronin

    I’m shaking my head in disbelief, just got a news update on my phone about Europe’s energy crisis, apparently it’s all caused by their over reliance on fossil fuels, renewables are helping them meet obligations to Paris agreements, prevent the planet warming more that 1.5 deg, etc, etc, and the only way forward is to build more random energy, S&W, blah blah blah.

    Don’t they realise more of the same will just give them more of the same, I.E., building more S&W, will cause more blackouts, not less.

    What they refuse to see or admit is that renewables are RANDOM, it’s what they do.

    181

    • #
      Old Goat

      Ronin,
      The media will not stop the narrative until they become completely ignored and discredited . As you pointed out reality is a b**tch. Publishing propaganda is not a good business model.

      70

    • #
      James Murphy

      it’s because of Brexit too, so says some media… divine and just retribution for their apostasy.

      30

    • #
      Tilba+Tilba

      Don’t they realise more of the same will just give them more of the same, I.E., building more S&W, will cause more blackouts, not less.

      Renewables contributed about 37% of the UK’s power generation in 2020. It’s been slowly increasing over the last decade or so.

      However there haven’t been gas price/supply crises such as the one now occurring. It’s a bit of a stretch to blame “under-performing” renewables for the current gas crisis – there are other factors in terms of inadequate storage, geopolitics (Russia, Brexit, etc), and supply-chain dramas – which are not confined just to gas.

      01

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Yes, you can see the beneficial effect of renewables
        https://www.businesselectricityprices.org.uk/media/detdtjax/bep-latest-prices.png

        Note latest prices were to 2020. This year the offshore wind turbines aren’t doing as well as in the past (something to do with the weather).
        Should that change then putting in more wind turbines could cause blackouts from excess electricity, although those turbines would probably be paid NOT to generate. But when the turbines don’t generate do they get charged the cost of replacement?

        10

      • #
        clarence.t

        As I speak, Gas is providing about ten times as much electricity in the UK as wind is.

        Thank goodness for gas.

        Now get fracking, UK, you cannot allow yourself to be dependent on foreign supplies.

        10

  • #
    M Allinson

    Panic is spreading, and prices are rising to the point where people will be forced out of business or back to using coal

    Well, as the Covid lockdowns have proved, there will be no doubt as to how this will go – we are now a “safety first and above every other concern”.

    And the safety of the planet must of course come first.

    Those businesses which are threatened must accept that their sacrifice is necessary for the safety of all.

    Far better that every business on the planet shut down rather than risk our future by going back to burning coal.

    But the people whose businesses must close needn’t worry – they will be on government handouts for the rest of their lives.

    And the government will take care of them.

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    Serge Wright

    This whole saga is the result of stupid brainwashed people making stupid decisions. To top it off they then plan a conference to celebrate their stupidity as the entire global economy crashes due to their stupid decisions. You couldn’t make this stuff up outside of a Monte Python skit.

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      Ronin

      Someone should write a stageplay about it, it would play on Broadway and the West End for decades, Call it ” The Summer of Our Stupidity”, or “The Sum Of All Stupidity”

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      Earl

      But that IS the quintessential essence of our situation because now you CAN make this stuff up outside of a Monty Python skit.

      Oscar is now proven to be as wrong as Aristotle because there is no imitation – Life has Usurped Art!

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    David Maddison

    Surely the Left can’t complain that Once Great Britain isn’t green enough.

    Apart from Australia and Germany, few nations have been as committed to the anthropogenic global warming fraud as they have.

    They even chop down forests in the United States (some virgin foresrs) and ship them across the Atlantic to burn in a former coal power station, Drax.

    You can’t get any greener or more stupid than that!

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  • #

    There are a few real genuine Hockey Stick Graphs for people to get their teeth into.

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    RickWill

    Ole Hanson points out that the squeeze may ease up if the weather doesn’t get too cold

    It is worth noting that 2020 had more sunlight than any year since 2001 and will only be exceeded once this century; in 2080. So good luck with the weather not getting too cold.

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    David Maddison

    Once Great Britain has 8,600 onshore wind turbines and 2,300 offshore.

    What are the (warm and fat) Leftist Elites going to say to the freezing, starving proles when they complain about their predicament?

    “Sorry, we need you to let us build more windmills, you just need to freeze and starve a few years more.”?

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      Forrest Gardener

      Perhaps China can give a few tips based on their experiences during the cultural revolution or great leap forward? Cambodia can tell us about year zero. The powers that be have lots of how to guides.

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      Graeme No.3

      No, they will be told you MUST use it when it is available e.g. when the wind blow at a near gale but not stronger. Unfortunately for the proles (and the profiteers) Climate Change to colder means stronger, nay fiercer storms in the North Sea.
      Pieces of blades flying and cables dragging due to storm tides.

      Sorry for them David but the loonies have brought catastrophe onto the UK, and there is no sign that they intend changing course. It will be all excuses, Climate Change, Russia, France or Norway(they aren’t sending enough), “wait until the cable to Morrocco is working”.

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    OldOzzie

    Natural-Gas Shortage Sets Off Scramble Ahead of Winter

    Tankers are being diverted and manufacturers are slowing production as countries and businesses battle to secure supply

    Myrina, a tanker chartered by Royal Dutch Shell PLC, set sail to Asia from the west coast of France last month carrying liquefied natural gas. When it was about to enter the Strait of Gibraltar, the captain received a call, according to people familiar with the matter.

    “We have to go to Rotterdam now,” his boss in London told him, according to one of the people. The ship made a U-turn and backtracked up the coast of Spain and France to drop off part of its cargo at the Dutch port. On Thursday, it arrived in Bilbao, Spain, to deliver the rest of its load.

    Buyers in Europe, Asia and Latin America are competing for limited supplies of gas, racing to fill tanks and caverns with the fuel before winter hits the Northern Hemisphere.

    Natural gas stocks are alarmingly low around the world, and prices in most places have never been higher after surging to new records in Europe and Asia this week. Demand has jumped as economies have bounced back from pandemic shutdowns, and the squeeze has caught traders, shipowners and energy executives off guard.

    Tight supplies from Russia and strong demand in China and Latin America have made European economies including Spain, the Netherlands and the U.K. particularly vulnerable. The countries in recent years have wound down coal-fired plants and become more dependent on gas.

    Even in the U.S., the world’s largest producer of natural gas, the bidding war has dragged up prices to their highest in over a decade, setting the stage for an expensive winter heating season and higher electricity bills.

    Shippers are diverting tankers to the highest bidder, a rare occurrence that adds to the uncertainty in the market. Manufacturers are slowing production because of energy prices, putting the post-pandemic recovery at risk. And China and Europe are firing up coal- and oil-fed plants, setting back progress in moving toward less-carbon-emitting sources of energy.

    “The system has gone haywire,” said Øystein Kalleklev, chief executive of Flex LNG Ltd., owner of a fleet of vessels that transport LNG.

    The market is unlikely to smooth out soon. The incentives for producers have changed as their investors favor companies that pursue stability rather than chase short-term price moves.

    Even if they did, LNG plants and tankers exporting LNG from the U.S. are already close to capacity, and building more is a long-term proposition. Political and regulatory hurdles to getting a major new pipeline to Europe, Nord Stream 2, up and running, meanwhile, may be holding back Russia, another large natural-gas producer, from adding to supply.

    On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was ready to work on stabilizing the global energy market, signaling he could help tamp down the growing crisis in Europe. He said Moscow was a reliable supplier that always fulfills all its obligations. Still, some officials, traders and analysts have said that Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom PJSC has been slow to increase gas flows.

    The supply and demand imbalance is playing out as world leaders prepare to meet in Glasgow at the United Nations climate conference, which begins Oct. 31, to make big promises about weaning themselves off carbon-based sources of energy, including gas.

    The recent shortages are complicating the way nations are managing the switch to less carbon-intensive sources of electricity, such as wind and solar power. Plentiful gas gave governments and companies confidence to press ahead with developing the renewables—because in a pinch power systems could always fall back on cheap gas, which emits around half as much carbon as coal.

    Contract disruption

    Longer-term developments in the way the gas market works have moved more cargoes to the world’s highest bidders.

    Historically, long-term contracts dominated the LNG market, as the developers of export terminals sold a large percentage of their capacity to buyers before they built the facilities. Capacity that went unsold left room for spot cargoes, which are readily available and untied to long-term contracts.

    These days, with several more export facilities online, particularly in the U.S., the proliferation of spot cargoes has created a market more sensitive to price swings.

    The disruption has left the world in a high-stakes bidding war. Asian buyers in South Korea and Japan, more accustomed to paying high prices for energy, kept bids elevated over the summer. That drew vessels east, starving Europe of LNG during the period when it usually builds up stocks for the winter ahead.

    Europe gained more of an upper hand of late. A key benchmark for European natural gas pricing has traded at comparable levels to the marker that tracks Asian LNG prices, likely helping attract more gas to Europe, analysts said.

    European LNG imports were up about 35% in September compared with August, according to Kpler. Gaslog Salem, an LNG tanker that had departed from the Gulf Coast toward Asia, rerouted toward the Mediterranean late last week, according to vessel-tracking firms.

    In some cases, cargoes have been diverted because traders sell the product to higher bidders and compensate the original buyer, or shippers cancel contracts in favor of bigger profits, according to vessel-trackers and industry consultants.

    “The market is allocating supply by price, which is unusual—that historically has not been how LNG has worked,” said Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at shipbroker Poten & Partners Inc. “It’s the coming of age of LNG as a more commoditized market.”

    In the U.S., gas exporters that sprang up along American shores since the shale boom began were built to capitalize on the gap between U.S. and international prices. The difference has never been wider than it is now—prices are running around $40 per million BTUs in Asia and Europe.

    Traders and energy firms in control of large LNG fleets such as Shell are likely profiting from the arbitrage, shipbrokers, traders and vessel owners say. Still, about 70% of Shell’s LNG contracts are long-term, meaning the ability to profit from the price spikes is capped, a person familiar with the matter said.

    And many LNG shippers are already running at full tilt, exporting near record levels at about 9.7 billion cubic feet of gas a day in July, according to the latest U.S. data.

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    Macha

    So our prime minister Morrison was correct. In his earlier claim prices would rise under nerzero.
    https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/653600-jobs-at-risk-from-net-zero-emissions-target-ipa-report

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      el+gordo

      ‘Six of the top 10 electorates with jobs at risk are held by the members of the National Party Room.’

      Andrew Gee in particular.

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    David Maddison

    As Australia freezes, remember what pretend conservative John Howard did organising a bizarre contract to give away North West Shelf gas to the Chicomms at barely the cost of production on a 30 year contract.

    What’s worse, the moron who wrote the contract forgot to include a provision for inflation or current market prices.

    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html

    [..]

    By 2015, it was being called the worst deal ever done. The Chinese by then were paying about one-third the price for Australian gas that Australian consumers themselves had to pay … and they were guaranteed to continue doing so.

    [..]

    The deals kept coming after Australia changed governments.

    The Labor administrations of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard were only too pleased to keep announcing huge exports of LNG to China, Japan and South Korea. The gas price for most of these deals was linked to the price of oil.

    [..]

    But don’t worry. The Chicomms recognised Australia’s huge generosity with the gift of two pandas.

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      Ronin

      Also, who was the clown who sold off a good deal of our gold reserve for 2/6 a pound.

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      Chris

      David, I don’t think this is right. The contracts for the North West gas shelf were signed by Colin Barnett , who had been an accountant in a pre political life. All contracts for WA gas have a requirement that 15% of gas extracted must go to West Australian commercial and domestic users at a discounted price.

      I think he has been the only premier who has put the state’s interests first in all commercial energy agreements.

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    David Maddison

    As usual, we can look to Nineteen Eighty Four to see what the Left are up to.

    https://www.myrecipes.com/extracrispy/what-1984-tells-us-about-eating-under-a-totalitarian-regime

    In the fictionalized socialist nation of Oceania, the government rations goods to its citizens, and publishes only news that make the rations seem plentiful, even though they are barely enough to get by. Goods like coffee are replaced with artificial Victory Coffee, gin is replaced with synthetic Victory Gin, and sugar is replaced with the more readily available saccharine tablets. Over time, the people of Oceania have become accustomed to these approximations of once-common commodities and have lost their sensory memories of the foods—the way chocolate melts on the tongue and the way a little pile of sugar feels when you push a finger into it.

    [..]

    Part of Winston’s job, as an employee of the government-owned Times newspaper, is to rewrite older articles about supplies and rations so that the predictions made by the Ministry of Plenty are correct in every case. When the Ministry of Plenty incorrectly predicts and announces that no changes will be made to the chocolate ration in 1984, the easy and obvious solution when chocolate supplies come up short is to pull a quiet mathematical retcon and edit the old articles. If anybody remembers the article differently, there is no written evidence to corroborate their memory—only hunger.

    See link for rest.

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      PeterS

      That’s because the left are following the 1984 script almost word for word. I find it amazing how most people don’t see that is the case. To some it must mean they like what they see in 1984 and look forward to becoming reality in full, but I suspect that’s in the minority. The majority are simply clueless/sleeping, but they will wake up eventually but sadly it will be too late by then as all the damage would be complete. In fact, it’s already too late yet a lot more of 1984 is yet to be completed. The momentum is too powerful. To turn things around it would require every leader of the Western world to be replaced by someone along the line of Trump. The chance of that happening is zero at this stage.

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        Greg

        1984,Brave New World these were defined as fiction though I feel the authors were aware of an approaching cult or ideology.Reading Atlas Shrugged at the moment and feel it accurately portrays the desperate spiral from wealth to anarchy in a world where exellence and achievement are sins and mediocracy the goal.

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      Ronin

      “Part of Winston’s job, as an employee of the government-owned Times newspaper, is to rewrite older articles about supplies and rations so that the predictions made by the Ministry of Plenty are correct in every case. ”

      Why does that sound familiar, is that what the BOM are doing, did they read about it in “1984”, must get my copy out and read up on what’s coming.

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    hillbilly33

    Early morning two days ago I heard a brief reference on one of the MSM TV channels, (Channel 9 I think), that because of their current severe energy shortage, China had been forced to release a million tonnes of the Australian coal they held and stored apparently to penalise Australia for urging other nations to help pursue the origins and spreading of the Wuhan Covid-19 virus.

    I have not heard it repeated since nor seen any reference to it from any poster on blogs I frequent. Did anyone on this site hear the item or has seen any reference to it?

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    • #
      Ronin

      Yes Hillbilly, it has been all over the news on my phone, curiously, the coal or some of it was stored in warehouses on or near their ports, they are sneakily releasing it because they are super desperate to get coal.

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      Graeme No.3

      Yes, they took ’emergency measures’ and also may have taken some of the coal available on waiting ships (those that weren’t diverted to other markets). There is a (as yet) unverified claim that some ships have been directed to call (very briefly) at third party countries so the origin of the coal can be disguised. Whether there are any coming from Australia I don’t know.

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    Ross

    There should be some lessons learned from the cold snap that hit Texas during last US winter. The unforecasted cold snap froze all the wind turbine blades and there was virtually no solar. The public then turned to the gas appliances for heat. But there was not enough gas in the system to cope. Plus, bizarrely there were supply/ pressure nodes in the gas supply system running off renewables. So they failed. So overall no gas pressure, so no supply. So millions of people without heating and people froze to death. There was also an issue with coal supplies – coal literally frozen in bunkers and coal generation has the problem of not being able to ramp up quickly. This has the same hallmarks of COVID where the vulnerable will suffer because of the lack of curiosity regarding early treatment. In this case it will be the poor, old demographic who will suffer again because they wont have heating or not be able to afford it.

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      Ronin

      It appears that these valuable lessons are going completely unheeded, pity really, because no one lives long enough to make them all themselves.

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      Graeme#4

      The wind turbines weren’t just frozen. From 8th February there was a sudden drop off in wind during the time that temps fell rapidly, The gas compressors had been changed from gas-operated to electricity at the urging of the Federal EPA. Texas was so dependent on wind energy that if all the other energy sources had been operating flat out, they still couldn’t supply all of Texas’ energy requirements at that time. And gas was still delivering 450% of its normal supply at that time.

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    • #
      Chris

      704 people died because of the cold and several more died because their electrical equipment such as ventilators failed for the lack of electricity.

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    Ronin

    Saw the news of China using embargoed Aussie coal on News.Com and Sydney Morning Herald, if that’s any help.

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    red edwards

    Remember all, we Texans are shipping all we can. Our liquification trains are working flat out, and those ships are ours. Plus we are only getting around $6 USD per MMBTU. . . .

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    red edwards

    Bleeping Bleep! ships ARE NOT ours.

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    Ronin

    Holy cow Red, that equates to 8.66 c US per litre for LNG, I think Aus is getting 6c AUD per litre for ours, so we are fools.

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    David Maddison

    Incidentally, for those that don’t know, in the gas industry one method of storing gas is at high pressure in the pipelines themselves.

    It’s called line packing.

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    Rupert Ashford

    You know this will all be blamed on the Tories and Brexit in the UK.

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    TdeF

    One major fuel neglected completely is peat. I was watching a documentary on the old peat trains in ireland where people harvested peat with shovel. You do not have to wait millions of years for it to turn into shale and coal. It is combustible now, if you squeeze the water out. And brown coal is abundant in Germany and Victoria, massive. But we are forbidden to use it, squeeze the water out or export it. It has been a dozen years since the Victorian government stopped the $1.2Billion contact with India. Why?

    It is not the job of the government to control world climates. That is pure fantasy and incredibly damaging.

    And the other side is that if you lock your fuel in the ground and refuse to sell it, coal, shale, peat, gas, uranium plus gold, lithium, iron ore, bauxite, India or China or Indonesia will just come and get it. And they are not the least bit worried about Climate Change. The privileged elites in Australia live in a rich country funded entirely by mineral and agricultural exports, which they try to stop. Governments do not generate income. They tax it and reward themselves and live beyond our means.

    Jules Verne warned about this future, the Eloi in Canberra, Wellington, Washington, Paris and London and Berlin. And the Morlocks who need food and energy and allow the Eloi to live their privileged existence, riding bicycles to work on special paths made for them alone.

    Man made climate change is not a problem, even if it was true. Everyone would love it. Man made energy poverty is the problem. And the people most hurt are the workers, the farmers and the poorest people. The rich can afford the higher prices.

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      Chris

      And the Morlocks came out at night and hunted the Eloi for food. Let that be a warning to all Eloi .

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    Kalm Keith

    Late yesterday there were fourteen ships parked off the coast of NovoCastria.

    Here in the port area we once had iron and steelmaking plants and associated secondary industries.

    Now we have world’s best practice in the form of coal loaders to load the ships with coal from the Hunter valley.

    Coal, Australia’s number one export.

    Oops, gotta remember, now that we all have university degrees in obscure aspects of modern victimhood, Coal is our ONLY export.

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  • #

    Its all in how you interpret the info….
    The COP leaders will take those fossil fuel prices as justification to show why there must be a quick change to RE energy.
    Largely the whole FF crisis is the result of most of Europe, UK, USA, Australia, etc banning Fracking for gas…and shutting down pipeline construction.
    This leaves Russia in the box seat with all the options to dictate gas supply and hence prices

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      Ronin

      If that’s the case, next years COP27 ought to be interesting, to say the least.

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      RickWill

      there must be a quick change to RE energy.

      After trillions spent over two decades the human race are meeting just 3% of their primary energy needs with random energy sources. Most of it is now due for replacement so that level of investment over the next 20 years will maintain the 3%. The expenditure would need to go up at least 100-fold to get to 100% from random energy as the first 3% is by far the low hanging fruit. Have not even started on storage technology. And that 100-fold increase would need to be maintained forever because it all wears out or degrades over a 20 year life.

      Ultimately the human race disappears up its fundamental orifice investing in random energy production in the hope of eliminating CO2 production.

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      • #

        That fraught CO2, read Primo Levi Periodic Table, story of a carbon atom, essential for all living things. Read Chiefio blog. E.M. Smith; ‘Get Wood’ post …Trees, bamboo, wheat fields, pond scum, just suck it up, strip the air above of CO2 in a matter of days. If CO2 gets below 220pm, plants die. Famine and domino effect on humanity ensues.

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        • #
          Chris

          Beth there is a back up plan. As you know Australia is surrounded by millions of kilometres of ocean and has a climatic cycle of floods, to produce life and vegetation, droughts to dry it out and fires to produce CO2 and nutrients. Where does all that debris, ash and CO2 go ? Into the oceans. This feeds the micro algae which grows exponentially and returns the O2 to the atmosphere. Micro algae produces 60% of all O2 as opposed to the 40% of terrestrial based vegetation. Micro algae is at the bottom of the food chain and is the keystone for all food chains. Currently there are two massive micro algae areas, one in the Pacific and one in the Southern Ocean, together they cover an area almost the size of Australia.

          CO2 is so vital that any carbon based life form that rots in anaerobic environment produces methane CH4. Most is produced in the northern hemisphere. As the CH4 is carried in the atmosphere toward the equator it is broken down to form H2O and CO2.

          Five monitored volcanoes produce mega tonnes (tons?) of CO2 annually. There could be more but they are not monitored. This is one famine we are safe from.

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    HB

    If the factory’s shut bus the workers to Glasgow give them a “torch a and a pitchfork” and let them loose on the greentards that caused this, on second thoughts make it a staff outing with free booze spit roast
    Then declare it a public holiday for evermore

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      Tilba+Tilba

      If the factory’s shut bus the workers to Glasgow give them a “torch a and a pitchfork” and let them loose on the greentards that caused this

      How do you figure that “the greens” caused this?

      • North Sea oil & gas in steep decline
      • gas supply crunch from Russia
      • high demand everywhere (as coal declines)
      • inadequate storage in the UK for winter
      • cost and steep decline curve of fracking
      • huge cost and public opposition to nuclear

      Not a complete list, but it seems to me the UK should be thankful that 37% of its energy comes from renewables. So why blame them? Perhaps look at conservative managers and politicians.

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      • #
        Peter C

        it seems to me the UK should be thankful that 37% of its energy comes from renewables

        Why So? That is a non sequitur.

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      • #
        clarence.t

        At this point of time gas is providing some ten times the amount of electricity as wind.. because it can.

        The UK must make itself independent of foreign countries for gas supplies, because wind and solar are always going to be a swing-and-miss erratic, unreliable form of supply.

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  • #

    […] JoNova – People who lived through the blackouts and economic chaos of the 1970s must be experiencing […]

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    Another large slow moving and cloud filled high pressure system settling over the UK for the next week or so.
    Virtually no wind and hardly any suitable sunshine at this time of year.

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  • #
    UK-Weather Lass

    The UK energy crisis is a warning to the several nations who rely upon neighbours to meet their energy requirements in a world where green issues have clouded judgements, turned some people in powerful positions into incompetent puppets or worse (you don’t have to be old to be useless), and concentrated on agreeable virtue signalling (solar and wind) instead of independent, free thinking and hard bitten decision making about baseload reliability, affordability and efficiency (and to hell with the UN and its crap politicised zero carbon ‘science’ as long as China is excluded).

    Although much of this can seemingly be blamed on our former membership of the EU, in reality it is down to the short term thinking that has been rife in UK politics since the time Thatcher was installed as our overlord, although the Lady was by no means the worse or biggest culprit in this. We can blame all UK Prime Ministers since the 1970s for being complicit in not pushing UK owned nuclear energy on a greater scale because our near neighbours wanted to do that and make heaps of money at our expense. And we, up to our necks in a cheap oil and gas bonanza that wasn’t going to last forever, let them do it to us. The EU continues to feed this short term madness without grappling with the serious fact that you should never put all your eggs in one basket. It will be a good day for the world when the EU comes apart at the seams and gets the serious reforms it has always needed. At the moment it is a lazy socialist’s paradise. We need dynamics and not rhetoric.

    The UK in the meantime faces a crisis which may just change our minds about feeding Greenies ever again if it really goes bad this winter. We can frack short term for sure but we need to build as many nuclear power sites as we are deemed to need by 2050 and we need to start building them now (not including existing projects).

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    Gerry,+England

    As the quote from our ignorant, lying, womanising clown of a Prime Minister back in 2012 shows, he has no conviction to anything. You can also trawl back and find him saying the leaving the EU would be a stupid idea. He saw an opportunity to become party leader by backing the Leave campaign although he was blocked at first as Tory party members considered him unfit and opted for Theresa May. Top party grandees now realise their mistake as their naive belief that the job of PM would change Johnson from being an idiotic clown has fallen flat.

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    Steve+Richards

    I wonder if Boris thought, as his mouth was moving, saying ‘don’t worry we are going to build more wind turbines’.

    Did he actually think, what happens when there is no or little wind?

    10