The Heat Dome was a freak local event
Once upon a time, scientists would say only 30 year trends counted. Now, all weather is climate except when it isn’t. Climate modelers know the heat over North East America was caused by your beef steak, but the cold over New Mexico was not even worth mentioning. (Nor apparently was the minus 81 in Antarctica a couple of weeks ago).
As Ryan Maue says: Overall the contiguous US is 1.4F below average.
…h/t Clarence.t WUWT
The Sun is already saying the Heat Dome “killed at least 500 people”. Strangely the February Texas freeze and blackouts may have killed 700 people, but five months later the media is still carefully waiting for confirmation before it puts that in a headline.
Blame the Pacific Ocean
Even NOAA says a Heat Dome is caused by La Nina and a local weather phenomenon:
This [heat dome] happens when strong, high-pressure atmospheric conditions combine with influences from La Niña, creating vast areas of sweltering heat that gets trapped under the high-pressure “dome.”
A team of scientists funded by the NOAA MAPP Program investigated what triggers heat domes and found the main cause was a strong change (or gradient) in ocean temperatures from west to east in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the preceding winter.
Given that climate modelers can’t predict a La Nina more than six months in advance, they also can’t predict the likelihood of Heat Domes in any given year.
Anthony Watts explains that the heat was a weather phenomenon created by air being compressed as it flowed downhill.
High pressure rotates clockwise, causes sinking air, and creates downslope winds (Foehn winds), which heat up because the air compresses as it flowed down the slope of the Cascade Mountains from east to west towards Portland and Seattle. It’s like the Santa Ana winds in Southern California. It’s the same effect as using a bicycle pump to fill a tire. The pump gets warm, not from friction, but because of the gas (air) is being compressed. Conversely, aerosol cans get colder, because gas under pressure is escaping and decompression occurs inside the can. This is described by science, known as the Adiabatic process.
Anthony also points out that as the heat dome moved past the temperatures fell in hours by an astonishing 52F (29C). That was another record drop in temperatures, and all on the same day, but who’s counting?
Blame the jet streams
The simultaneous extreme heat and cold may be created by wavy jet streams. But climate modelers could never figure out what the jetstreams were going to do. They flipped and flopped post hoc as the data changed. The models predicted waviness would go down, but it went up. Then someone came up with a way to explain that, but then the waviness stopped going up.
Meanwhile other researchers without climate models found that jet streams correlate with solar output “over a millennium”. And other researchers found that the interplanetary magnetic field can affect the polar regions on Earth, and also the mid latitude air pressure.
Wandering Jetstreams help create the heat dome.
More than one skeptic predicted the jet streams would get wavier as solar activity weakened. Read Stephen Wildes theory here. And Cap Allon here.
If a weak sun causes wavier jet streams we may well get lots more “extreme” weather phenomenon which will have nothing to do with CO2.
But whatever happens the Climate Experts will be right.
You missed sea level rise that is being blamed for the cement crumbling, decaying building that collapsed in Florida.
No water around the building but the media claims sea level rise from global warming.
The media certainly fails in fact finding.
I expect many storms also helped the salt decaying of this buildings infrastructure.
420
Maybe it was leprachauns tunneling under the building looking for somewhere to bury thier pot of gold….
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Nah – ’twas the Underpants Gnomes..
Step 1 – steal underpants
Step 2 – ????
Step 3 – Global warming
120
Yes, Sleepy Joe said that it might be climate change too! However a video has just come on line, taken by a resident across the road from the block, that shows water pouring out of the basement about 8 minutes before the collapse. The block has a history of water leakage and flooded basements, clearly leading to corrosion and structural problems. Residents have been complaining for several years. Very sad.
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If water was coming out under pressure it means that the containment function of the basement and foundation work had collapsed.
The main point of the basement is to provide a structure that floats on the fluidised bed of sand beneath.
If the basement floods at one spot then that point will no longer be supported and drop, thus putting a strain right up the building which cracks and eventually tears apart.
Right away from Florida, the same thing happens with the Nuclear power disasters. Money is saved by ignoring the engineering imperatives and getting a quick, cheap sign off for lower cost structures. The end result is the same in both cases; failure.
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The building was badly designed (or maybe the construction didn’t comply with the design drawings?) There are inadequate details visible all over the place. Columns which lack links and slab/column connections with inadequate resistance to shear. The building was a house of cards. It almost doesn’t matter what exactly set it off, because once a single component failed, a chain reaction (or ‘progressive failure’ in the parlance) was set in train, and it was going to run away.
20
Leaking swimming pool, poor waterproofing, built on a swamp, right on the waters edge. LOL
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Concrete cancer, corrosion of steel reinforcement bars of course weakens the structure and it is more common that people would like to know.
Even poor concrete pumping practises like the 1960s into 1970s in Australia when local entrepreneurs built concrete pumps to compete with imported concrete pumps like the German Schwing GMBH models that were developed when Germany was reconstructing after WW2 and needed to get work done as quickly as possible, first line pumps using a pipeline and later boom pumps with the pipeline mounted. Pump operators with the cheaper local models often added water into the hopper containing concrete from a delivery truck and after it had passed the slump test procedures, this led to poor quality finish and entry points for moisture resulting over time in corrosion of the steelwork in the building.
Galvanising reinforcement bars is an added cost but in wet conditions near the ocean or swampy ground galvanising (zinc is a sacrificial metal that corrodes slowly before corrosion can commence on the steel.
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Concrete cancer is a looming problem for many buildings in Sydney thanks to extensive use of Magnesite in the 60s and 70s. We had it taken out in a block we lived in, but have heard many other places had put it in the too hard basket.
40
Very True.
I’ve heard from people who know about this that vibration compacting of concrete eliminates air pockets that lead to weak spots. And this was another step skipped by ‘cheap’ builders in the past.
Cars that spend extended periods near the ocean will start rusting far quicker than those well away if there is any defect in their rustproof coatings. You can imagine what problems this causes in reinforcing rods.
30
On the Jet Stream…
The Japanese tried using it to attack America during WW II.
They let 10s of thousands of paper balloons 🎈 with incendiary bombs go into it. They tried to start fires in our forests and drop anti-personnel mines.
Problem was, only a very few made it to our West Coast. AND didn’t seem to know our North-West Cost forests (in Oregon and Washington) get tons of rain that time of year (morons). No fires were started, much to their chagrin. A few even made it to our Heartland. No fires there either. Shows the fickleness of the Jet Stream, and weather in general.
There was one (that’s 1) anti-personnel bomb that killed one or two folk. A hiker took some people (kids, if memory serves) out into a forest and stepped onto a trigger mechanism and it exploded.
But that was it, and that’s all.
Moral of the story: Don’t trust the weather for life or death decisions.
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Another great post Jo.
With a lot of effort you have brought understanding out of the chaos that is our planet’s weather.
It’s a freak event that didn’t involve human origin CO2.
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Professor Richard Linden of atmospherics physics has stated there are so many variables affecting the atmosphere, it would take a quantum computer 40 years to model all of these
Of course there is the unknowns as well
The climate modellers have assumed that co2 is the only variable that drives climate
Obviously this is is wrong, so either they are intellectually deficient or have other agendas (Grant monies, power, prestige, following poltical directives)
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Re: Those climate modellers of whom you speak.
There is a third option: ignorance, or an inability to comprehend what the true scientists have told them.
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Do the resident dopes need a reference (or link) for that quote?
The “science” is settled. OK.
Why do we continue to have this discussion?
10
No doubt there will be much climate equivalent of screaming at the sky, too….and maybe even leaping around while muttering odd things,while all decked out in witchdoctr gear to try and “fix” the “problem”….
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When do we start sacrificing people at the alter? The climate change activists must go first if they were honest about it.
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We breathe in 400 parts per million of co2 and breathe out 10.000 parts per million
I wonder if the activists know that
If they did would they follow their own mantra think globally, act locally
If so then surely they would stop breathing out
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The out figure is more like 40,000.
I think that they live in 8,000 ppm in submarines.
Lots of room for more CO2 in the air.
🙂
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Thanks for the correction
All that free plant fertiliser
I’ve seen economic analysis which takes in the benefits of co2 and that industries, vechiles etc producing co2 should be paid $8/tonne of co2 produced
Why isn’t there ever a cost benefit analysis ever produced which shows the benefit offsets outweigh any negative impacts from co2
Everything stems from the UN”s IPCC (intergovernmental priesthood for the cult of climatology)
Or reading it backwards the CCPInstitute
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“”industries, vechiles etc producing co2 should be paid $8/tonne of co2 produced””
That’s a good one.
Logical and already in practice, in the greenhouses adding CO2 to that atmosphere at a cost.
20
Yes, 8,000 ppm was mentioned in an article I read about a US Navy inquiry into submarine crews health and safety.
30
I have searched on the level of CO2 on subs before and the figure I read was something like yours. The point is that there is unlimited power available on an atomic sub and a requirement that the sailors operating the reactor always be at peak performance. If that level of CO2 made them drowsy they have the power to scrub the CO2 to a more acceptable level. They don’t, so I conclude that 8,000 ppm is healthy.
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“When do we start sacrificing people at the alter?”
Too late, it’s been going on for years now.
Thousands of pensioners, here and other places, frozen or boiled in fear of un-payable bills, thanks to subsidies on “renewables”.
Thousands more across the West driven to despair and ruin when their employment or their businesses left our shores in search of cheaper power.
And what “climate change” can’t destroy, Covid will take care of – both scams pushed by the same globalist forces.
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Point taken. It’s only going to get much worse when banks start foreclosing en mass and our supers disappear. Most people simply just know how bad things will get.
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When they altar their views? 🙂
30
There is a simpler explanation, “Overall the contiguous US is 1.4F below average.” Conservation of energy. If one area is unusually cold, the heat has to go somewhere.
That means there is nothing unusual except the distribution of heat. The assumed steady system is actually chaotic, nothing more. Averages are not guarantees. And overall there is nothing unusual about a lot of heat in summer.
But it’s Climate Change, even if it is just a weather event. As for record event, we have only been doing this a short time. The thermometer was invented in 1700 and was not in common use in the world until the 1920s. Everything before that is guesswork.
Still very hot weather events do not need explanation. Like the Great Barrier Reef bleaching, it’s Carbon pollution. Because the wonderful scientists at James Cook University, UNESCO and IPCC tell us so. And the scientists at WHO tell us Wuhan Flu is not infectious, person to person. Some scientists say.
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It all depends on witch doctor is on television.
Like the Queensland Chief Medical office Jeanette Young who now insists that all vaccines must 100.000% safe.
Someone should tell here that nothing in life is 100.000% safe. The Wuhan Flu though is destroying our economy and we are still all at great risk, not just from the original virus, now the Delta strain but the strains to come which could kill our 18 year olds. It must be stopped. Lockdown has just bought time, not solved anything.
Ms Young may live in a public service fantasy bubble like Climate Scientists, but there is a real world with real odds. And carbon dioxide does not cause every summer heat wave, bushfire, coral bleaching and other short term weather related event.
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Someone should enlighten the good doctor that 18 yo women are more at risk of clots forming from taking the pill.
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A reporter did, Ronin, but her rejoinder was “yes, but the pill does not kill them!” Not sure if she actually checked the stats before blurting that out!
60
Clots are like that.
50
If I my add this good news link here …
Why are Finnish Covid deaths so low?
“Finns find novel ways to tackle COVID-19 using the commonly used drugs aprotinin, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin, harnessed in a new and targeted manner on the mucous membrane of the upper respiratory tract.
Aside from appealing to those who are needle averse, there is a more substantial reason for this nasal focus.
Tentative results point to nasal administration inducing a broader immune response than intramuscular administration, producing antibodies that protect mucous membranes – an important factor to consider given the typical point of entry for an airborne disease.”
https://www.goodnewsfinland.com/finns-find-novel-ways-to-tackle-covid-19/
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Actually, there is someone to blame for this.
It’s warmists who endlessly propagate the lie of anthropogenic global warming (or “climate change”, “climate emergency” etc.) as one of their weapons to bring about the destruction of Western Civilisation by making energy unaffordable for all but the Elites.
They are removing all the benefits of inexpensive energy or “energy prosperity”. And energy prosperity gives us just about everything physical our civilisation offers.
They are trying to destroy all the benefits of the Industrial Revolution and all Enlightenment Values such as reason, liberty, progress, tolerance, fraternity, constitutional government, and separation of church and state (but with Marxism replacing traditional Judeo-christian beliefs as the church of the Left).
320
Good points. Yes, the real enemies who are going out of their way to destroy our way of life are our very own leaders at all levels of government and big business. Go figure.
President Xi Jinping warns China will crush to death anyone who bullies them. Let’s hope our leaders don’t follow the same line.
100
Exactly right, what I don’t understand is why our leaders and businesses want to destroy our way of life, it’s their way of life too.
They are educated and appear rational, how did they conclude that this self-destructive behavior is a great idea?
20
Stephen Wildes has also often mentioned that sinking air gets warmer due to adiabatic compression, which it does.
His theories and explanations are among the closest to what actually happens in the atmosphere.
He has more understanding of the reality than at least 97% of self styled AGW alarmist “scientists”.
250
Agree that Stephen Wildes hypothesis is the most likely.
Blocking is taking place in both hemispheres, the recent wildfires in the US and bushfires in Australia were exacerbated by blocking. Even if the authorities were aware, there is nothing they could have done to prevent conflagration.
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@clarence.t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOpkXBACDU4
A time lapse of the Table Cloth on Table Mountain which appears to demonstrate that air gets colder as it climbs and so forms cloud and gets warmer as it descends so the cloud disappears. I could be wrong though as I do not know enough about it, so there may be another explanation.
50
In South Africa , much of which is on a plateau 1000’s of feet above sea level (Johannesburg 6000 ft above sea level) known as the Highveld. There is a second level, much of which extends to within a couple of hundred of the coast in some places.
Coastal areas are exposed to what are called Berg ( mountain) Winds. When these winds blow from inland toward the coast that mass of air is driven the high altitude escarpment . The pressure of that mass of air drives down the air below the escarpment causing an increase in temperature.
Compressing air, say in a bicycle pump, demonstrates this action perfectly. Try it. Put your finger over the end of the pump while pumping . Caution do not be too vigorous or you’ll get a nasty burn.
When the Berg Winds blow the normally temperate coastal areas can experience temperatures of 40 to 50 degree C which because of the temperatures is dry.
High pressure fronts, NOT Global Warming or Climate Change cause these phenomena lasting for several days. So that explains the creation & disapation of clouds. No need to run & hide under your bed! It’s all perfectly natural & berg winds will blow for eternity.
80
Incredible landscape and hang gliding.
30
“Overall the contiguous US is 1.4F below average.””
The image says 1.0ºF below average ??
50
My mistake, should have looked further
The image on the Twitter link is different than the first image on the post, and says minus 1.4ºF.
90
It could be a dome or a plume,
But alarmists will always presume,
That heatwaves are man-made,
While deep cold they downgrade,
To further their global warming doom.
220
Brilliant Ruairi,
You have summed up the whole discussion in 5 lines of verse.
40
Absolutely, this is weather after all, it is not climate. However, when you add energy to a chaotic system like the atmosphere this is exactly what you would expect.
034
Yep. You get an average anomaly of minus 1 – 1.4ºF.
And no we are not adding energy.
That is one of your many scientifically unsupportable delusions.
290
There is an energy imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation. Faster heating is occurring in northern boreal and polar regions which appears to be affecting the jet stream. There is considerable ongoing research on this topic, it might pay to do some reading.
230
Strongly disagree in the theory that AGW and a warm Arctic has created meandering jet streams in both hemispheres.
30
Arctic warming does not cause the jet stream to meander.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200219152855.htm
50
LOL, so you think energy isn’t used on the Earth’s surface. That’s just dumb !
And no, the Energy going out has risen with the atmospheric temperature.
No divergence between UAH and ERBS
https://i.postimg.cc/JnntjLFV/uah-tlt-vs-erbsceres-olr-60-602.png
There is no divergence between ocean heat content and CERES either.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9gZn4Z1/change-in-ohc-argo-and-ceres.png
Its that simple, simon. !
30
RTFL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091585
04
Of course nothing to do with Increased atmospheric humidity.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.earth103/files/module02/specifichumidy_NINO3.png
Note, they kept the LW Cl value constant, despite a rise in WV content… DOH !!
They even state
“Conversion accounts for cloud, but not for cloud changes”
They also estimate several other hings, and assume they are constant..
but neglecting changes in Water Vapour is their big error. !
20
Its a ‘sensitivity’ issue and there is no scientific consensus.
00
Also, their calculated “forcing” is basically zero trend for the whole period , except for two distinct steps.
https://i.postimg.cc/QM37jYjT/Radiative-forcing-in-steps.jpg
This is most certainly not a CO2 signal.
They have made the cardinal mathematical error of ascribing a linear trend to something that is obviously governed by step changes.
Not good science at all. !
30
The polar vortex is powered by a difference in temperature between polar regions and the tropics. Global warming is supposed to weaken it allowing it to meander more, bringing cold down into warmer area of North Am and heat further north. Not a well thought out theory. More like a hand waving explanation trying to blame global warming – and nothing like Simon’s explanation.
20
if not energy, then what is it?
123
You miss the point. It’s not “our” energy.
100
can you expand – I am talking about the amount of energy in a system, and what an increase in that energy means.
117
Don’t you know the difference between energy generated naturally as distinct from energy generated from mankind? As clarence.t alluded to, WE are not adding the energy.
110
Can you prove your point? I note that UHI is a thing, and that is certainly man made
115
We should put discussions on energy imbalance to one side, until we understand the mechanisms in play and effect on the ground.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/23/where-did-sierra-snow-go-this-spring-not-into-california-rivers-and-water-supplies/
10
Peter are you referring to the HAARP weather control project?
10
I note that UHI is a thing.
Very localised, and does not effect atmospheric temperatures except in surface stations in urban zones
Just means a stronger cooling affect controlled by the tropospheric lapse rate
20
Clarence,
A sense of perspective can be obtained from a comment made some time ago.
The person said that if all cities and towns on Earth were placed side by side, then, they would fit inside the boundaries of Spain.
Admittedly that’s only a surface area comparison but by calculating the energy use per person, roughly gas plus electricity and easily done you could start working the numbers if it was thought necessary.
That’s the beginning of the analysis of the UHI effect: not much on the world’s scale.
As you say, there’s an automatic adjustment, and it’s obviously coping.
Just in case the other commenters bring it up, gaseous and particulate pollution over cities can be disastrous and needs attention.
30
Yes Keith,
Urban areas actually take up very little of the Earth’s land surface..
They just happen to be where most surface stations are located. 😉
60
So UHI does play a part, admittedly small. therefore, that proves than man is affecting the heat content of the atmosphere. Now yo can add all the heat generated by industrial processes, transportation and agriculture and yo can see that the statement that man is not affecting the atmosphere is total bunk
112
Wow, your understanding really is very poor, Peter.
Man’s effects on the atmosphere are tiny and localised, and the global climate doesn’t even see them.
Everything is balanced out by the temperature pressure gradient and bulk air movement
80
There is no evidence that humans are adding energy to the atmosphere.
Certainly CO2 makes absolutely zero difference.
The very slight warming since the cold anomaly of the LIA, is easily explained by natural solar and ocean circulations.
80
Sorry wrong again PF. It is not the sum total energy but energy imbalance that results in extreme weather events.
40
prove it, assertions do not count
113
Yet assertions is all you ever have. !
So obviously you think your comments are meaningless and pointless.
Yes, we agree.
130
I’ve made comments before about your insertions, but you just don’t listen.
30
‘ … it is not climate.’
A meandering jet stream, accompanied by blocking, is typical of what we should expect when our star is quiet. Earth’s atmosphere shrinks, so I’m saying its climate change.
80
Robert McSweeney tries to fathom what is happening.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events
20
And fails completely because he has drunk too much Klimate Kool-Ade, and can’t see past the AGW meme, to see the reality.
40
Well, it is Carbon Brief, I’m offering clickbait as a lure for zealots.
21
It has been said that;
“this is exactly what you would expect.”
Yes, exactly.
Chaos.
20
Exactly the the same large swings in extremes of weather as always. Maybe breaking a 19th record C by a degree but more likely that the record was broken by build up around the weather station, deforestation on the downward slope and newer equipment that will record very short spikes in heat the old mercury min/max thermometers (magnetic float needs to be pushed up) were slower to respond to.
20
Weather: RECORD-BREAKING COLD AND SNOW SWEEP SOUTH AMERICA
https://electroverse.net/record-breaking-cold-and-snow-sweep-south-america/
Climate ChangeGlobal warming: The Heat Dome Boiling Northwest U.S. Already Has Clear Climate Linkhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-29/heatwave-in-pacific-northwest-heat-dome-already-has-clear-climate-link
Carbon (sic). is there nothing it can’t do?
120
Fantastic gas, no wonder they use it in beer.
160
Average global temp 1F warmer … life as we know it doomed.
Average CONUS temp 1F cooler … life as we know it doomed.
Science.
70
ENSO is neutral, so its not a major player, but there is a marine heatwave which could be related to the Omega Block.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-143.70,28.17,438/loc=-141.788,16.437
40
Pro-science conservatives such as most people here need to draw all the Marxist propaganda together and see the bigger picture.
It’s not just lies about climate we beed to address.
We need to see the mismanagement of Covid and the denial of the use of antivirals even before some possibly dangerous and ineffective vaccines were available.
We need to see the war against traditional moral values based on Judeo-christian principles.
We need to understand and teach others what Cultural Marxism is about which is the fundamental ideology being used by the Leftist Elites who instruct their slave army of useful idiots what to do and think. Incidentally YouTube banned a Prager U video about Cultural Marxism but Prager U replaced it with a similar one about Identity Socialism. https://youtu.be/TAPOQFWSUkE
We need to see the bigger picture and how the Left are trying to return us to a time before the Industrial Revolution and The Enlightenment whereby there are the Elites and the Serfs. Or as Orwell would have called them in Nineteen Eighty Four, the Party Members and the Proles.
In the prophetic work of Orwell, only the Party Members needed to be monitored by the Telescreens to keep them in conformity with the Party (and gaoled or killed if they didn’t conform). The Proles weren’t surveilled because they were deliberately kept uneducated and were considered unlikely to rebel as long as they were kept fed and entertained. That’s pretty much the situation we have now.
140
Proles kept uneducated particularly since the Victorian education directorate abandoned its scheme to have new teachers pass literacy testing prompting me to wonder how many actually speak english given the continual relaxing of IELTS visa criteria.
40
Wavier jet streams can be caused by a reduced differential in temperature between the poles and equator. There is considerable evidence that the jet streams are becoming wavier. The current heat dome event has only a 1/1000 chance of occurring under normal climate conditions, but the climate is changing so past probabilities no longer apply.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005?ftag=MSF0951a18
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past probabilities, like 100 years ago or something? how can anyone possibly know the status of jet streams 100 years ago? i mean it seems obvious to me that for eg. there were many blocking highs here in Australia back in the 1900-1910 period, so it could be calculated from readings of the day around the world, but it would still be a pretty shabby reconstruction.
what i am getting at here is that saying 1/1000 chance is propaganda. nothing more, nothing less. so why say it? how does that enhance anyones understanding of the situation. the first link you give explains the position of ‘the science’ on climate change as –
““The dynamics of blocking is focused up at jet-stream level in the atmosphere and here models predict the strongest warming in the tropics. This strengthens the jet-stream winds, making it harder for blocks to form.””
but in climate fantasy land (the computer game created by the IPCC that are sold as models) anything goes, so who knows eh?
I would think the best way to look at it would be the ACE as this is more an overall guide to energy in the system and it shows little change over a warming world which means it is probably correct that the tropics are dealing with extra heat the way they always have since existence.
80
For once you are right Simon. ‘Wavier jet streams can be caused by a reduced differential in temperature between the poles and equator.’
The jet streams form on the ITCZ where the tropical highs near the equator press against the arctic highs. The arctic/antarctic are areas of low heat and when tropical highs have high heat the pressure gradients are high at the ITCZ leading to straighter flowing jets. When Tropical highs have lower heat the lower ITCZ pressure gradient lets the Jets become wavy and meridonial. (All explained by Prof HH Lamb in the 1960s).
So our current wavy jetstreams are a result of LOWER tropical (global) heat.
Simon you have agreed that WE ARE ENTERING A CYCLE OF GLOBAL COOLING.
100
What happens is that the quiet sun affects ozone in the stratosphere differently between equator and poles so that the gradient of tropopause height changes in a see saw effect.
The Tropopause falls over the poles which pushes Arctic air outwards and rises over the equator which reduces resistance to the outward flow of Arctic air.
The resulting increase in cloudiness along the lengthier jet stream tracks reduces solar energy into the oceans and eventually leads to system cooling.
The next thing to watch for is a switch in the balance between ElNino and La Niña events in favour of the latter.
60
WJR Alexander ref p212 The linkage between solar activity and the annual flows in the Vaal River in Sth Africa is shown in Figure 1 sunspot graph where a 21 year periodicity is apparent.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/67c0/16a062787fd283da4b32188ba0dc3d765111.pdf
30
Stephen its important to consider the PDO as a major player because during its negative phase La Nina becomes dominant. The LIA was akin to a La Nina epoch.
10
Correct.
During a cooling period I would expect La Ninas to become more frequent and El Ninos less frequent from one PDO cycle to the next and also within that 60 year cycle.
20
Wavy jet streams have been a regular occurrence over centuries.
Here’s one from 1977 for example.
https://i.postimg.cc/63r290FT/jet-stream-1977.png
There is also evidence for a similar jet stream in 1945, and many other somewhat less wavy instances at many other times
There is no evidence of any human or CO2 causation.
100
‘Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming.’
It makes sense, its a chicken and egg thing, the wavier jet stream made the Arctic warmer. Good catch.
00
From the Carbon Brief article, you can see the models expect blocking to decrease in a warmer world. Unfortunately with a quiet sun blocking will increase, but they don’t mention that.
‘In general, models “predict a general decrease in blocking occurrence in the future”, says Woollings. He explains:
“The dynamics of blocking is focused up at jet-stream level in the atmosphere and here models predict the strongest warming in the tropics. This strengthens the jet-stream winds, making it harder for blocks to form.”
20
The last three words give it away. Pure propaganda.
Retreating glaciers revealing dead trees. Graves in permafrost. A massive glacier disappearing in the century before the invention of the combustion engine – and only the past 40 years was the climate abnormal?
50
Thing is, the starting point of all the “global warming™” was probably the coldest period in some 10,000.
Thank goodness for the small amount of warming we have had.
And the starting point of satellite data in 1979 was probably the coldest period in the last 100 or more years. They chose to start Arctic sea ice data at that precise point despite the fact that earlier data exists, back to 1972 (iirc), and shows much less sea ice.
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Dry air, low elevation helped create record-breaking hot spell in Lytton, B.C.: meteorologist
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You can’t help but notice the msm hypocrisy, Texas deaths from cold, meh, waiting for confirmation, Pacific NW deaths from ‘heat dome’, yeah, climate change.
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I know ‘Polar Vortex’ …
would a heat dome be a ‘Equatorial Vortex’?
Vortex is scarier than Dome.
Just trying to help.
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Oscar Wilde had a saying about fox hunting…. The Unspeakable in pursuit of the Inedible, kind of reminds one of the marxists chasing climate change.
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Isn’t that what our so called leaders are doing? Chasing the “fox” that has the tag name “CO2 emissions” that’s in turn chasing a rabbit with the tag name “mythical man-made global warming”?
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The real fun will start though when the people wake up and chase the hunter of the fox with real weapons, not the fake ones used to fight so called climate change.
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We could call it ‘ The Unspeakable in pursuit of the Unprovable.’ LOL
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It was following up on Mr. Wilde’s theory that originally brought me to this blog. Tim Ball has also published some informative articles on meridianal flow vs zonal flow.
On a related topic: the media’s reporting on this weather event in the US has been extremely biased and misleading. As Mr. Watts wrote after failing to report the real cause of the high pressure pocket aloft and the consequences of it, they then completely ignored the cooling off that followed. I’m several hundred miles away, but the local weather jockies said that it would move in on us next. Didn’t happen. It’s been slightly cooler than average, because of afternoon thunder showers. In fact it was raining hard a lil’ while ago. Of course, we are having an “unprecedented” drought of “historic” proportions. “Let it rain, let it rain, let your love rain down on me..”
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You have great power. Your invocation to let it rain has worked. My gauge registered 20.5 mms this morning.
Thanks.
Dave B
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Hi, Dave.
Glad to see that my work brought you to the light.👍
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When NASA launches a satellite, you have to justify it. So sea levels are being monitored and confirmation bias is mixed with justification.
However they have invented some new science to justify it all.
“Keeping an Eye on Rising Seas
The ocean absorbs 90% of the heat trapped in the Earth system due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
The resulting warming seawater expands, contributing to the ongoing rise in global sea level.
Monitoring ocean height is important because it helps forecasters predict things, including ocean currents and potential hurricane strength.
So now 90% of global warming does not go into warming the air after all? only 25% of the sun warms the land which radiates back. Desert can change from -20C to +60C and backradiation is important but the oceans? The ocean surfaces changes relatively little, day to night. So how the backradiation falls on the oceans is a mystery only understood by NASA. Or did they just make it up?
As for the expansion of sea water pointing to ocean currents? How does that work? Isn’t cause and effect the wrong way around? So now CO2 heats the water by backradiation and that makes it go up and that changes ocean currents which cause hurricanes?
It all comes from NASA deciding their realm, air and space are the major drivers of climate. The sun and ocean seem almost irrelevant. But when you consider that the oceans contain 1400x as much energy as the air, this is all made up science.
Still, it justifies a satellite launch and it’s all about Climate Change caused by ‘Greenhouse gases’ which are trapped in the air. CO2 is not incredibly soluble and in constant exchange rapidly seeking an equilibrium level. No, it’s all our fault. Some scientists at NASA say.
If an organization like NASA can push such utter tripe, no wonder people believe in Climate Change and the Carbon dioxide is a noxious industrial pollutant. So is water.
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And by the way, the idea that the ocean is stealing all the air warming covers all bases. That’s why the predicted growth in air temperatures did not happen. And the coral bleaching. And the hurricanes. It’s all so simple with this new science. You can just make it up. The only problem is that the rapid ocean rising should be even more devastating, so they are mapping where the ocean is rising more than expected. The Global Warming religion will not die. It just needs work and lots more money because we have so little time left to save the planet, even if China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam and Russia could not care less.
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From the net
“If it looks like a duck
Walks like a duck
And quacks like a duck
Factcheckers will tell you it is a squirrel”
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Back in the sixties and early seventies we flew maritime surveillance and anti-submarine patrols. We dropped bathythermograph sonobuoys that measured the water temperature to a depth of several hundred feet, and transmitted the results to the aircraft. In calm conditions, as the result of surface heating, the temperature of the first 50 feet or so dropped off sharply with increasing depth. However, the arrival of a weather front caused mixing of the surface layer, producing a temperature profile that was basically isothermal. Nothing has changed in the past sixty or so years, nor will it going forward.
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I should note that Volume #1 of Advances in Geophysics (1952) contained an article by Bert Bolin about general principles of circulation of the atmosphere. Within that article he makes clear that the general circulation supports an index cycle, in which there is a strengthening then weakening of meridional versus zonal flow. When the index is least, meridional circulation is at a peak, and produces blocking highs, and great loops in the general west to east flow.
Thus in 1952 people already knew about the events which led to the exceptionally warm weather in the Pacific Northwest. No CO2 magic required at all. No climate weirding needed. It is a part of the various cycles sustained in the atmosphere.
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Meanwhile here in the West. Re the comment about rainfall “…while a series of cold fronts late in the month failed to bring the city to even average rainfall.” You have to wonder what some people think an average is
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An average is a mandated minimum. And maximum. Any deviation is Climate Change. QED.
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LOL. That means we are already experiencing massive global warming and global cooling on each and every day! So, reducing our emissions to zero won’t stop the earth from rotating let alone change the climate in any way, shape or form. It really is time to call it for what it is; emissions reduction is a hoax, a scam and one big fat lie. Anyone who supports it in any way is a fool, a criminal against humanity or just plain dumb.
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Or just indoctrinated since childhood. It’s been 33 years of this. Someone in primary school when this was created from nothing is now likely 40. And there is another group in their twenties. They have never heard anything else but Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Apocolypse/Carbon pollution/Climate Emergency.
In 2016 Donald Trump said it was nonsense. Our own most popular Prime Minister Tony Abbott was even plainer. He called it crap. So his enemy Malcolm Turnbull and friends of the Greens had him removed so they could run the country. Badly. And Donald Trump in 2020. It’s a giant industry Global Warming, which is why any record hot day is absolute proof and record cold days are just the weather. An event, not the climate.
You are right though, anyone should be able to see the world is cooler, not hotter and New York is not underwater and the Polar bears are in record numbers. Everyone lied. For a good cause though, trillions of dollars.
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Sydney Opera House is not below water as Tom Foolery predicted would happen by 2000, and life as we knew it 1970s did not deteriorate badly by that year as Dr David Suzuki predicted it would.
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Hehe I meant to add that according to data the average human has one breast and one testicle
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And more from over here in the West. Looks like the above average rainfall is going to ruin a potentially record grain harvest
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A few years ago a neighbour handed me a copy of a newspaper from Kempsey NSW, a special 100 Years edition with one page dedicated to each past year.
There were several periods of extremely hot weather conditions and stories about exhausted birds falling from the sky, oppressive heat day and night for weeks at a time. Noting that Kempsey is coastal but some distance inland from the ocean near the Great Dividing Range.
There were also massive flood events.
In our land of droughts and flooding rains, Australia.
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The local airport (KELN) reported 114°F – – to be investigated as a possible record.
I live 5 miles away and can confirm the nearness to that reading.
From that to early this morning there was a 52 degree (F) drop.
The best that can be said about it is that it was better than a direct hit from and F4 tornado.
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Thanks , Jo and others.
The fact is that the so called greenhouse effect is caused by convection and not radiative gases.
Any potential warming effect from radiative gases is neutralised by adjustments in convection.
Those adjustments are imperceptible compared to natural variation.
The whole AGW concept is a scientific and political farrago.
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“Any potential warming effect from radiative gases is neutralised by adjustments in convection.”
So true, The atmosphere is ruled by bulk air movement due to temperature and pressure gradients.
The vertical pressure gradient is ruled by molecular density which is ruled by gravity.
The work of the Connelly father and son duo on balloon data, proves this absolutely.
CO2 cannot affect these in any way whatsoever.
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With all due regard to the efforts you have put into your idea, there are any number of us who disagree, strongly, with your theory. To say that “… greenhouse effect is caused by convection and not radiative gases….” isn’t much different than me saying that my car goes down the road because its wheels spin and not because it consumes fuel.
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Yes: a difficult thing to describe .
The first sentence could have been left out.
The second sentence nails it.
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If one accepts that convection neutralises radiative imbalances it is but a small logical step to deduce that convection is the initial cause of the greenhouse effect.
The mechanism has already been explored on this site in posts created by myself and Philip Mulholland.
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My mistake.
The work by me and Philip is at WUWT so just visit that site and search for posts in our joint names.
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Earth’s Energy Budget.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/18/deconstructing-wilde-and-mulhollands-analysis-of-earths-energy-budget/
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That isn’t the one but it refers to it.
The trouble is that the writer of that piece is a committed radiative theory enthusiast who determinedly kept missing the point.
Best to rely on our initial piece and then use your own judgment.
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Retention of energy due to atmospheric mas and density.
Controlled by bulk air transfers due to temperature, pressure, density differences.
Radiative gasses don’t get much of a look in.
Only water Vapour can change the lapse rate.
So yes, Stephen is correct.
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H2O is the biggest greenhouse gas and has the greatest effect.
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We need to start reminding warmist anti-scientists that one day they will be held accountable for their actions, such as through a climate “Nuremberg Trials”.
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Spot on David.
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We can only hope
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I expect it might be the reverse – in the future people will be furious that effective action was not taken at a time when it was well-known what was required, but the fossil-fuel dollar ruled. We all won’t be here to see it of course.
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HH Lamb recognised the change in the jetstream pattern back in the 50s and the occurrence of ‘blocking highs’ that hold the pattern static for days or even weeks which allows either heat or cold to build up. And that was before they invented global warming.
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Indeed. Post WWII there was a great advancement in understanding the Earth’s atmospheric circulation. Especially in regard to the jet streams and connection to the weather. People recognized the index cycle, which you refer to here, and which I did as well in comment #20 above. Now almost no one seems to ever refer to it. However, where I live a person can observe the effects of the index cycle every winter. I wonder if focus on the MJO hasn’t replaced it even though one shouldn’t replace the other.
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My physics might be right up the creek here but….
Even though the Earth’s climate system is ridiculously complex it’s a safe bet that over short periods of time the total thermal energy in the whole of the Earth’s surface is stable. So if the temperature rises suddenly in one area, it must fall somewhere else. As Jo points out, New Mexico was unusually cold at the same time. This doesn’t sound like a warming trend to me.
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Nothing wrong with your physics at all.
You can look at a 7-day loop of surface maps starting early on June 25 and running to today (July 2) here. What you will notice is the movement of the polar front southward June 25. By June 28 the polar front is far south in Texas with surface lows near Del Rio, Texas. And the entire central Rocky Mountains and Great Basin have a broad high pressure system in place. Surface air is being drawn westward into the Rocky Mountains. It does adiabatic work expanding as it goes upslope and cools from the mid-80s on the Gulf to the mid 60s along the Front Range NM->WY. It cools even further into the mountains and is raining — snowing above about 13,000 ft. At mid-day I drove through Mountain Home WY at 8,800 ft. elevation and the temperature was 43F. The mountains of Colorado, NM, and southern WY are all cold as clarence.t’s map shows.
Meanwhile on the other side of the continental divide there is surface heat in eastern WA, OR, ID, NV with ground surface temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s; and this air is being moved to the northwest, downslope this time, into the low ground between the coastal ranges and cascades. Starts at about 2,000 ft elevation ends near sea level. At 6F per thousand feet on a dry adiabat this air goes from 94F to around 106F.
All explained by work into or out of the air. No unusual heat input is required at all, although clear skies and UHI added some. The only exceptional part of the story is the strength and the length of time this flow pattern persisted.
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Lots of luck for China cutting us out of the minerals loop, Rio manager of African mine the third to be killed since 2015.
With Chinas man management skills, there’ll be trouble.
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Kevin has hit the nail on the head. The “heat dome” is strictly regional, and does not relate to other regions of the USA and Canada. When do we ever hear of record freezing in the winter of the N Hemisphere, which has been happening over the last decade? Answer: NEVER.
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