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The rise of the Indian Delta variant

It’s everywhere nearly. The UK variant (called “Alpha”) has become the dominant strain (see that graph far below). But now the Indian V2 variant (the Delta strain) is taking over from the UK strain. It is rapidly spreading in Russia, Bangladesh and Portugal.

The Nextstrain country comparison site shows which variants are most common — prevalence of the strain — not the absolute numbers. There are “only” 5,000 new cases a day in the UK at the moment (far down from the peak of 60,000 cases a day). But they are increasingly the Indian variant.

In the USA there are only 12,000 new cases a day, and only a hint of the Indian Delta variant.

Coronavirus spread Delta variant.

Spread of the Delta Variant. Nextstrain. https://covariants.org/per-country

The rate of increase is easier to see if the other variants are deselected.

There are some ominous looking trajectories there. 

Coronavirus spread Delta variant.

Spread of the Delta Variant. Nextstrain.

It’s the slope of the trend change in the Delta variant that matters. (The last week of data in India is probably an anomaly.)

The Indian Delta variant has also spread to China, which is doing what it always does, mass testing and lockdowns. The Chinese presumably know more about the design of Covid than anyone, and they are not aiming for herd immunity.

The rate of spread or R0 of the Delta strain is around 5, meaning one person infects five others on average. This is twice as fast as the original Covid spread was in 2020. It is quite a different disease. It means that once it gets loose in the community, we’d need  stricter restrictions to reduce the R0 to 1 or less. — the point where the number of cases starts to shrink. It will be much harder to put back in its box.

Hotel quarantine has to keep up with the variants

The more easily these viruses spread, the more stringent the hotel quarantines will  have to be. Victoria, Australia was probably lucky (in one sense) that the newest hotel breach occurred at the same time as restrictions were already running. So one lockdown has slowed both escaped strains. Like a two-for-one deal. Hopefully long-suffering Victorians will get more freedom back on Friday.

Given the astronomical costs and pain of another lockdown — we could throw a billion dollars at building new facilities for quarantine and still come out far ahead. China built hospitals in ten days. Can’t we put mining demountables or Glam-camping type tents in a hot dry location and prevent the breaches?

Coronavirus: Double-strength Delta strain to dominate

Natasha Robinson, The Australian

The Delta variant, also known as B.1.617.2, is about 50 per cent more infectious than the Alpha strain that first emerged in Britain last year, according to the latest data from Public Health England. The Alpha strain was about 40 per cent more infectious than the original Wuhan strain, making the Delta strain almost twice as infectious as the original wild type of the virus.

The Delta variant emerged in India around October last year and has now spread to 100 countries. It has emerged as the dominant strain of the virus in the UK owing to its increased transmissibility, with 12,431 cases of the Delta variant detected in Britain since the strain first arrived from India in January. Delta variant case numbers rose by 5472 in the week up to June 3, much faster than any of the other variants of concern.

The UK variant took over in most places:

Just to show how fast the UK strain spread, see these graphs and ponder that the Indian variant spreads more easily that this one.

The Alpha strain took over very quickly.

The Alpha strain took over very quickly.

The big (sad) question is whether there be another wave in the UK

I didn’t want to even ask this question. But cases are rising again there up 90% in a week. But three quarters of UK adults have had at least one vaccine dose and at least 5 million have suffered through Covid (and probably a lot more) and have some protection. But its a race – newer variants mean older vaccines don’t work as well. In lab tests, protection (whatever that is defined as) against the Indian strain was only 33% after one dose of the Astra Zenica or Pfizer vaccine which was quite a bit lower than 51% for the old UK variant. It improves after the second jab substantially.

At least in hospitals in the UK, the vaccine seems to be useful, so far:

Three-quarters of cases of the Delta strain in Britain have been among unvaccinated people, with only 3.7 per cent of cases in people who were fully vaccinated.

But the virus will keep mutating, and without a cocktail of drugs to reduce it dramatically, sooner or later a variant will arise that can get around the vaccine defenses. Using antivirals like Ivermectin or Hydroxychloroquine would dramatically slow the mutation rate.

Newer variants are coming. Time to embarrass journalists for not even asking…

And my position on the vaccines is that there are long term risks we need to be very aware of – like the risk that leaky vaccines may help produce some very nasty mutations. 

Important posts

9 out of 10 based on 56 ratings

244 comments to The rise of the Indian Delta variant

  • #
    Mike Jonas

    What on Earth was the government thinking when they scrapped proposals for quarantine facilities? Australian citizens have been stuck overseas for a horrendously long time, and a quarantine facility could have allowed them to come home, reunite their families, and get on with their lives. The stresses on some of those families must be unbearable. It’s curious how a sporting team can come back to Australia so easily, but different rules apply to other citizens.

    252

    • #

      Can’t the Aussies stuck overseas form themselves into a sporting team of some sort and attend an international event that others can pretend to organise in Sydney?

      I don’t want to appear flippant but it seems astonishing that such as tennis payers can swan in but legitimate citizens can’t get back in. Surely the govt have been legally challenged on this injustice?

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    • #
      el gordo

      The Federal government is prepared to contribute, as they did in Victoria, but NSW is not all that interested.

      “NSW is neither asking for an additional quarantine facility in NSW, nor are we seeking one,” he said.

      Since the start of the pandemic, more than 180,000 people have passed through NSW’s hotel quarantine system, more than double the number of any other state.’ (SMH)

      90

      • #
        Robber

        This is the puzzle about returning Australians. For over a year it has been reported that about 30,000 Australians are waiting to return, and more recently 10,000 from India.
        Yet hotel quarantine is accepting 7,000 people per week, so that’s over 350,000 per year.
        Clearly there are many people leaving and then returning eg Australian cricketers, and blocking those deperate to return.

        100

        • #
          MP

          Yep got it.
          Lots of traffic continually flying to and from overseas, lots from China. https://www.flightradar24.com/CES562/27fc4fa8

          Not making sense is it.

          50

          • #
            el gordo

            In the NWO only the rich and fatuous will fly, leaving the lower middle class to ponder.

            After flying in all those disgruntled expats we should then expect mass immigration from the UK, coupled with our free trade agreement. Does that make sense?

            10

            • #
              RickWill

              ScoMo is expressing some concern to the G7 meeting about China’s position.

              China is making noises about the price of iron ore. It is a big drain on their resources and money for dirt from Australia’s perspective. Would be easier for China to just come and take it. No one else needs it because they use Chinese steel. Cheaper iron ore would lower the cost of China’s goods to the rest of the world.

              10

          • #
            Annie

            Not only there but also the ME, Europe, USA. Been watching lately as pilot son has had some flights after a long break.

            10

    • #

      What on earth is any government thinking when they do not orchestrate and promote the use of ivermectin, HCQ, vitamin D, fresh air and sunshine!

      450

      • #
        Mark Allinson

        Whatever they were thinking it had nothing to do with protecting the health of the people.

        It’s certainly the greatest betrayal of the people by the authorities I have ever seen.

        210

      • #
        Murray Shaw

        They were more interested in protecting big Pharma it would seem. HCQ and Ivermectin anti-virals should have been made available till a vaccine was available. Down the track we will see this was some sort of crime and cause of unnecessary deaths.

        180

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Covid was developed to drive people to take thier franken-vax.

        Nothing more,nothing less.

        I guess if people get complacent, they just up the ante by saying a new “variant” will eat your daffodils and scare the dog….

        *yawn*

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        • #
          bill

          I READ THE New variant is form space. It came to us from the sun and was moved around in the global electric circuit. It was so obvious that this is of alien origin so we need new drugs that don’t work to stop the aliens form taking over. They will believe the strains will kill them go get a rna vac and have the spike boy come visit them so they die off and the world will be saved. I am so glad we will be saved by zero. I know this is true because all the Karen’s told me about the article form cnn which describes the off worlders know as the trumpians who are the ultimate enemy as they are from planet Balaam. All those poor people in India who could not work, buy or raise food and died of covie after starving to death. Millions die and only the Georgia stones know why.

          40

      • #
        bill

        https://c19hcq.com/

        255 studies on the effectiveness of hydroxy published

        Total 255 studies 4,071 authors 384,570 patients
        Positive effects 190 studies 2,925 authors 270,301 patients
        Early treatment 66% improvement RR 0.34 [0.24-0.49]
        Late treatment 22% improvement RR 0.78 [0.73-0.84]

        40

      • #
        Matthew Bruha

        TDS is almost impossible to cure

        00

    • #
      Raven

      When I was shanghaied into the Army back in the late 60’s, I was posted to what’s called a ‘field force’ unit at Enoggera Barracks, Qld. Those units spend a considerable proportion of time in the bush on exercises.

      I reckon we could designate half the Enoggera camp to a quarantine facility.
      From there, just rotate the the army units out on exercises, four weeks on & off which wouldn’t be much different from what currently happens.

      There’d be nothing to build except perhaps a fence. The barracks already has multiple entrances and is close to hospital facilities etc.
      Plenty of other field force Army camps around the country as well.

      21

      • #

        Others have been suggesting this too. But the problem with all the remote camps is that they are a long way from a proper hospital.

        When people get very sick, it’s hard to move them and inhumane to not give them an ICU.

        Though it’s inhumane to withhold a cheap preventative medicine and they don’t have a problem with that…

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        • #
          Raven

          Agreed re the remoteness issue but Enoggera is only 14 minutes away from the large Royal Brisbane Hospital.

          20

    • #
      bill

      hydroxy fun stuff

      •100% of the 29 early treatment studies report a positive effect (13 statistically significant in isolation).
      •Random effects meta-analysis with pooled effects using the most serious outcome reported shows 66% improvement for the 29 early treatment studies (RR 0.34 [0.24-0.49]). Results are similar after exclusion based sensitivity analysis: 67% (RR 0.33 [0.24-0.44]), and after restriction to 20 peer-reviewed studies: 65% (RR 0.35 [0.25-0.47]). Restricting to the 6 RCTs shows 46% improvement (RR 0.54 [0.33-0.86]). Restricting to the 13 mortality results shows 75% lower mortality (RR 0.25 [0.16-0.40]).
      •Late treatment is less successful, with only 70% of the 173 studies reporting a positive effect. Very late stage treatment is not effective and may be harmful, especially when using excessive dosages.
      •The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 255 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in 915 trillion (p = 0.0000000000000011).
      •87% of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) for early, PrEP, or PEP treatment report positive effects, the probability of this happening for an ineffective treatment is 0.0037.
      •There is substantial evidence of bias towards publishing negative results. 81% of prospective studies report positive effects, and only 72% of retrospective studies do. Studies from North America are 3.3 times more likely to report negative results than studies from the rest of the world combined, p = 0.0000000033.
      •Negative meta analyses of HCQ generally choose a subset of trials, focusing on late treatment, especially trials with very late treatment and excessive dosages.
      •While many treatments have some level of efficacy, they do not replace vaccines and other measures to avoid infection. Only 5% of HCQ studies show zero events in the treatment arm.
      •Elimination of COVID-19 is a race against viral evolution. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used. Not doing so increases the risk of COVID-19 becoming endemic; and increases mortality, morbidity, and collateral damage.
      •All data to reproduce this paper and the sources are in the appendix. See [Ladapo, Prodromos, Risch, Risch (B)] for other meta analyses showing efficacy when HCQ is used early.
      Show forest plot for:
      All studies
      Mortality results
      With exclusions
      RCTs
      Total 255 studies 4,071 authors 384,570 patients
      Positive effects 190 studies 2,925 authors 270,301 patients
      Early treatment 66% improvement RR 0.34 [0.24-0.49]
      Late treatment 22% improvement RR 0.78 [0.73-0.84]

      50

    • #
      gowest

      How do you staff it… Oh hospitals are full.. Perth maternity went on bypass today. Medical staff are about to strike for pay rises…
      Stupid government fell for the vaccine kool-aid. Using Ivermectin /HCQ anti virals would have been far safer. 10 day course of medication at home- covid killed.

      Medical advice has been out-smarted by the virus – their vaccines are producing mutations, surely they considered this before demanding 100% vaccination? Maybe they did – more vaccine boosters = more money, who cares about patient side effects?

      40

    • #
      Tilba Tilba

      What on Earth was the government thinking when they scrapped proposals for quarantine facilities?

      I have said for at least 15 months – among my family anyway – that the fed/state governments should have entered into deals with say 50 Big4 caravan parks around the country. There are at least 50 of them that are within reasonable reach of a good hospital and a serious airport.

      Had we done that I think hundreds and hundreds of Australians would not have died needlessly. And punishing lockdowns would not have been required.

      I think our governments are incredibly culpable. Does it take a genius to realise that a caravan park cabin is hugely safer that a room in a highrise quarantine hotel?

      00

  • #

    Any relevant news about Ivermectin and the Delta strain ?

    160

    • #
      Enthalpy

      India supported the use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroqin for treatment of COVID. Cases dropped significantly

      260

      • #

        I know, but that was the now called Delta strain, was not sure, therefor my question.

        60

        • #
          ian hilliar

          Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine (and colchicine) are effective against all strains of CoVib 19. Check out the BIRD statements and directives.

          260

          • #
            Ian

            Here’s a snippet from Brazil that won’t interest you

            Dr. Mauricio Nogueira, a professor at São Jose do Rio Preto School of Medicine in Brazil, who has studied viral variants and how they emerge for more than two decades stated:
            “”Every drug has a side effect,” said Nogueira, who was involved in an early clinical trial of chloroquine, a malaria drug similar to hydroxychloroquine, which found that drug showed no benefit as a COVID-19 treatment. In addition to being ineffective, hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, especially when combined with other drugs, like azithromycin, can be toxic to the heart, Nogueira explained. Ivermectin is a safe drug for treating parasites, according to Nogueira, but Brazilians using the drug for COVID-19 without a prescription is already having consequences.

            “We are seeing people getting liver disease,” Nogueira said. “It’s dangerous.””

            There’s another from the WHO a body whose statements you no doubt disregard

            A panel of World Health Organization experts has strongly advised against using hydroxychloroquine to prevent Covid-19 after reviewing all existing studies on the subject.

            The panel announced the recommendation in the BMJ medical journal on Monday, as part of the first version of WHO’s living guideline for drugs to prevent Covid-19.

            The panel concluded with high certainty that taking hydroxychloroquine does not prevent hospitalization or death from Covid-19. The panel also recommended that researchers studying hydroxychloroquine as means of Covid-19 prevention — also known as prophylaxis — consider ending their trials.

            There are many others from reputable sources but hey much better to follow the advice of quacks and charlatans.

            528

            • #
              Serp

              Totally agree; mind you it is no easy feat discriminating which is the reputable source in this world of misinformation we inhabit.

              90

            • #
              Yarpos

              Funny how this dangerous drug is a staple among already weakened rheumatoid arthritis sufferers.

              280

              • #

                Specific clinical uses like that control usage according to other drugs being taken. This is not the case for laissez-faire usage that the Brazilian was commenting on

                60

              • #
                Analitik

                I knew that either you (GA) or PF would come back with the “no RCT” excuse for not even trying to assess ivermectin’s efficacy. How predictable.

                90

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Covid is designed and marketed to scare people into taking the globalist vaccines.

                Govts around the world appear to have actively stop everything ( including drugs that clearly work ) *but* the vaccine.

                Why?

                Simple question…

                Why?

                70

            • #

              Aloha! The key is the timing. The HCQ treatment doesn’t work in late stages it has to be within the first few days or prophylactic. I heard f a Brazil trial where they were administering HCQ to patients n ventialtors. That’s too late! Source?

              The India Council on Medical Research published in March and May 2020 their national guidelines for HCQ usage once a week with health care workers, physicians and nurses as a prophylactic. India has a death rate 1/10th the rate of the USA.

              AAPS-Association of American Physicians and Surgeons

              Who wants an Emmy?

              180

              • #
                Ian

                Sceptical Sam write

                “Proper science will win in the end. The trolls that live under the troll rock and visit this site from time to time making unscientific statements have blood on their hands.”

                Just because you don’t like to read articles with which you do not agree does not make them “wrong”or “anti-science” Real scientists don’t stick their heads in the ground and refuse to consider the results of such articles. Those that do are not scientists but are the trolls with their heads firmly under the rocks

                10

            • #
              TedM

              Basically hearsay. That study has been well and truly dissected and consigned to the trash.

              40

              • #
                Sceptical Sam

                Exactly right TedM.

                However, our resident immoral trolls get their kicks from pushing fake news and pseudo-science.

                The studies on the efficacy of HCQ are overwhelmingly positive.

                https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/treatments/hydroxychloroquine/hcq-faqs/

                Recall it was “The Lancet” that had to retract the fake research paper on HCQ that it published with great glee so as to swing in behind the anti-Trump mania that was all the go last year.

                Proper science will win in the end. The trolls that live under the troll rock and visit this site from time to time making unscientific statements have blood on their hands.

                100

            • #
              Tel

              Ivermectin is a safe drug for treating parasites, according to Nogueira, but Brazilians using the drug for COVID-19 without a prescription is already having consequences.

              “We are seeing people getting liver disease,” Nogueira said. “It’s dangerous.”

              Let me get this straight … he is claiming that Ivermectin causes liver disease unless you have parasites before you take it, and that makes it safe?

              Should be easy enough to handle, just give yourself a mild dose of intestinal worms, eat a bit of garden dirt and you will surely pick something up. After that … whisper to the Ivermectin tablets, “Hey buddy, I’m only taking this for the worms, mkay?”

              I think of myself as a problem solver.

              170

              • #
                OriginalSteve

                Woof

                best take my worm drench….dogs need it you know…

                00

              • #
                Lucky

                Tel, well put.

                HCQ, same same. It is quite safe for lupus/arthritis as it was for malaria. But if you take it without ‘protection’ from malaria or lupus, it will cause all kinds of diseases.

                20

            • #
              Peter C

              Here’s a snippet from Brazil that won’t interest you

              Dr. Mauricio Nogueira, a professor at São Jose do Rio Preto School of Medicine in Brazil, who has studied viral variants and how they emerge for more than two decades stated:
              “”Every drug has a side effect,” said Nogueira,

              “We are seeing people getting liver disease,” Nogueira said. “It’s dangerous.””

              Well I am interested. But the snippet is not so informative without a reference. The “side effects’ issue is important. However other sources say it is a safe drug.
              https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/FLCCC-Release-on-BIRD-meeting-2021-03-09.pdf

              Who should we believe: Dr. Mauricio Nogueira or the FLCCC (Front Line Covid19 Critical Care Alliance)?

              30

              • #
                Ian

                “Who should we believe: Dr. Mauricio Nogueira or the FLCCC (Front Line Covid19 Critical Care Alliance)?”

                Read about each of them. The FLCCC is thought by some to be biased. Dr Nogueira is not well known and his is a single study.

                00

    • #
      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Thanks EW,
        That’s thanks for letting us know, but the message is most unwelcome, and terrifying.
        How do we stop these manipulations of both truth and regulations? Seems to me democratic bureaucracies have been infiltrated – world wide? – by saboteurs and quislings.

        And the things they introduce into regulations get locked in by unchangeable bureaucratic process. Slipped in in minutes, not removable for years. Just great during an emergency.

        Cheers
        Dave

        70

      • #
        Analitik

        If the case numbers and deaths surge across India now, will the Ians, Gee Ayes and Peter Fitzroys have the courage to face that they were wrong?

        It would be a grisly confirmation that I would take no joy in. If India’s CoViD-19 path continues on its Cuthbert trajectory, then I would be glad to acknowledge that I was wrong and ivermectin will have been proven to be ineffectual.

        40

        • #
          Analitik

          current trajectory, not Cuthbert trajectory

          00

        • #

          wrong about what? Happy to concede if you point me to my error

          10

        • #

          The “ current trajectory “ in India is the most rapid drop in new cases, active cases, and deaths, that has been seen.
          ( Due almost entirely to Providences that use Ivermectin and HCQ / zinc.

          30

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Should be easy enough to show the before and after affect of HCQ to show it works.

            Riots are on in India. I wonder how the bureaucrats will fare once people realize they have had thier medical freedoms removed and given a franken-vaccine in its place…

            Most people would be pretty cranky….

            00

            • #
              OriginalSteve

              That should read:

              “Riots happen often in India”…

              Not sure what happened there…

              00

        • #
          AC Osborn

          Why would you agree it has been ineffectual?
          It either works or it doesn’t work.
          Everything I have seen says it works.

          10

        • #
          Ian

          “If the case numbers and deaths surge across India now, will the Ians, Gee Ayes and Peter Fitzroys have the courage to face that they were wrong? It would be a grisly confirmation that I would take no joy in’

          I can speak only for myself but of course I would concede the case against ivermectin was wrong. As I haven’t written any articles either for or against HCQ or Ivermectin or dexamethasone or vitamin C or sunshine I can’t see how my views on the various articles are grisly or not. They are just my views of the relative scientific articles I have read

          00

      • #
        Geoff Croker

        Its Agenda 21 writ large. How to kill 50% of the world’s population (about 3.8 Billion [people). Health authorities are going to continue to ban treatments while at Wuhan the “bio-weapons lab” tries out more variants. I doubt this is a CCP lead program but I could be wrong. Who is really directing the Wuhan lab? Anthony Fauci needs to answer so very blunt questions.

        90

        • #
          el gordo

          The CCP generals have been involved for eight years and Fauci convinced the US government that we should be useful idiots at the Wuhan lab, to keep abreast of their gof.

          Agenda 21 aims to reduce the world’s population by creating a greater middle class reluctant to have more than replacement value. Covid was an accident waiting to happen.

          30

  • #

    Here are the numbers for the UK

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/2021/06/08/matt-hancock-reveals-hospitalisation-rate-of-indian-variant-is-just-1-half-that-of-the-british-variant/

    Hundreds of thousands of tests are made daily which results in the high number of cases, most of whom had no idea they have the virus

    Hospitalisations are very low. Deaths are around 10 a day, forty percent with cvid rather than of covid . Deaths from other causes are around 1500 a day. We remain below the five year average for excess deaths.

    Case rates in our area are around 6 per 100,000 cases with no one dyng in the southwest for around 2 weeks.

    Case rates are much higher in places like Bolton wth a much higher levels of immigrants many of whom have refused to take the accine but even there the number of hospitlisations is very small.

    We shall have to wait and see but official panic is at a much higher level than appears warranted. The govt do not want to relinquish controls but basically most people are carrying on as normal and ignoring the govt hysteria.

    250

    • #
      ian hilliar

      So the Delta variant is more infective , but much less virulent. Good news, then!

      90

      • #

        Not according to epidemiologists in the UK. They say, people are more likely to be hospitalized with the Delta variant and there are more young people coming to hospital, but they don’t need the ICU as much. But 40% of the UK has had two doses of a vaccine and that apparently, reduces the need for older people to go to hospital.

        I didn’t mention that in the post because they were only estimates with no numbers.

        74

        • #
          Peter C

          Not according to epidemiologists in the UK.

          Can experts be believed about anything anymore?

          I bought the latest issue of the Spectator today:
          The editorial starts off:
          “FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE
          A key theme that recurs in this magazine…..is that the accepted concensus of the academic and scientific “expert” classes are frequently wrong.”

          The editor expands on that theme.

          90

      • #
        tonyb

        Ian

        Yes, hospital admissions continue to fall, covid deaths represent less than 1% of all deaths.

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9666081/Reasons-NOT-delay-Freedom-Day.html

        The govt has been manipulating statistics for many months.

        Figures from the Office of National statistics demonstrate that every year prior to 2008/9 had more excess deaths than 2020 when accounting for population size etc.

        That is without taking into account the vast numbers who died with covid and not OF covid.

        That is not to say Covid is not a serious illness, of course it is.

        However its effects have been hugely amplified which saw us playing follow my leader when tens of thousands of elderly patients were decanted from hospitals into care homes, tens of thousands more when hospital admissions often meant the patient catching the virus there and many thousands more when the virus circulated in private homes as people were foolishly told to stay indoors when the best thing is to be outdoors getting vitamin D.

        none of this helped by the general fitness of much of the population, especially obesity.

        However the average age of a covid death continues to be 2 years older than the natural life span at around 83

        Vaccinations appear to help and so would closing the borders in March 2020

        90

  • #
    Phillip Charles Sweeney

    Nobel Prize-winning virologist Luc Montagnier has said that mass vaccinations with so-called ‘vaccines that only reduce symptoms but do not prevent infection or transmission to others creates the perfect environment for the SARS-CoV-2 virus to mutate into more aggressive strains.

    This is happening right before our eyes.

    These so-called ‘vaccines’ were developed quickly in order to make money.

    It would have taken years to develop a fully functional vaccine that would prevent infection and thus transmission.

    Another own goal here by our clueless politicians.

    290

  • #
    Damon

    Jo has been calling for ‘hard’ lockdowns for over a year. They haven’t worked, and they won’t work.

    223

    • #

      Jo has been living the life of freedom thanks to hard borders and tiny lockdowns. See Western Australia where life goes on as if this virus does not exist.

      I was right and weeks ahead.

      I just wish more of my friends could live like this too.

      I am the anti-lockdown girl. If I had been the PM, none of the lockdowns last April would have been necessary.

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      • #
        Fran

        In Canada, there are an estimated maximum of 290,000 people in govt regulated institutions (care homes, prisons, hospitals). This population accounts for the source of 75% of fatal Covid infections. The remaining 38,000,000, including most of the elderly and comorbid, account for 25%. For all the panic, its the institutions with filtered ventilation systems that pass the virus around (think your quarantine hotels).

        https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/05/the-lies-exposed-by-numbers-fear.html

        Jo, you seem to be enamoured of the NZ and OZ approach. Some of us would rather make our own decisions about how much to shield. And without the governments loving the control, there needs to be access to now proven early treatment. This would make the WuFlu a lot ‘less worse’ than the common garden ones we all grew up with.

        20

    • #
      Wirebird

      Lockdown worked, eventually, for Victoria last year. Resulted in pretty much a summer of freedom. Would have worked quicker if they had taken Jo’s advice and started it earlier.

      18

      • #
        Analitik

        Worked until it didn’t. Lockdowns result in a metastable state of freedom that falls over as soon as a single infection spreads

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          And the alternative is:

          1/ Let it RIP, significant death and 10% disability long term and the loss of “hospitals as we know it” for months with uncertain or possibly short lived benefits from immunity plus higher medical and welfare costs for long term illness. Plus a large economic hit as 30 – 50% of the population voluntarily locks down during peak waves to prevent catching it. Plus whatever nasty risk is involved in catching a bioweapon. But it might work out if immunity is long lived and we don’t mind losing a quarter of men over 85. I am not so happy with a society that values life so little. Seems like a bad incentive for young people to pay tax or join the defence forces for a civilization that won’t fight for their grandparents, or for them when they get old. Many healthworkers may resign at unlivable working conditions. Plus there is the small but not non-existent risk that coronviruses don’t give long term immunity and we have to repeat the cycle every few years with a new variant.

          OR

          2/ UK and USA path. Rolling waves of infection plus lockdowns or restrictions (punishing and demoralizing) to keep hospitals “sortof semi normal” but with unappealing working conditions. Could work with mass antivirals and Vitamin D, nutrition and fitness (which are all good, but not happening). Without that, it’s a gift for Big Pharma, requires mass vaccination, and that encourages immune escape variants and mutants from leaky vaccines that are more dangerous. This sets up the need for booster shots. Happy Glaxosmith etc. If we follow the Mareks disease path everyone will need a vaccine, even if the govt doesn’t mandate it.

          OR

          3/ Keep Chinese bioweapons in China and ask them to clean the virus out of their nation and pay $10T in reparations and then, maybe, we let them fly back into our airports freely again and we buy their products. No vaccines required. Minimal lockdowns if we build good facilities, and pay professionals. We can’t do international travel except with all nations who follow this path. But if we got serious, most of the West are only 12 weeks away from elimination. If China can keep the virus out, I assume even the west could.

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            Analitik

            What you postulate is eventual death to humanity as a virus that mutates in a manner that evades any natural immunity yet keeps it deadly to the masses (which itself is highly debatable) cannot be dealt with in the long term.

            Meanwhile, we get stuck in groundhog day except that our minds and the economy do not reset with each loop and there is a deterioration.

            The US, UK, Italy, India, China etc have suffered badly, mostly due to ignorance of how to treat covid-19 – it was novel, after all. Death rates in all of those countries is now far lower than a year ago because knowledge has been gained, through hard experience, and they have survived.

            Why can’t we take on the knowledge from their experiences and deal with covid-19 as they are doing now rather than expect us to flounder as they did earlier on?

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              tonyb

              Yes, Australia can surely learn from our mistakes in the UK. Mind you many of us could see they were mistakes as they were being made.

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                Analitik

                Absolutely, tony. The ignorance was due to the novel aspect of the virus, not lack of diligence. They have been handicapped by the WHO promoting big pharma experimental medications and vaccines while totally suppressing any consideration of off label medications and dietary supplements.

                The failure of our local medicos to question the WHO and to consider the usage of off label anti-virals does demonstrate a lack of diligence in case there is a widespread, uncontrolled outbreak (which is almost certain to happen at some point)

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                Analytik, We need the use of antivirals. The rolling waves won’t go on forever. But we need the antivirals to stop the vaccine escape variants from become ever nastier. We can break the chain but not unless we get good vaccines that don’t allow shedding and long term infections OR We use a drug cocktail to crush the virus.

                We may need to use CRISPR or reverse sense RNA to ferret out all the last copies of this bioweapon.

                This will be our renaissance moment in biotech if only we can stop the Swamp sabotaging everything for profit sake.

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            Scissor

            Until recently, most medical facilities in the U.S., including hospitals, have been underutilized necessitating staff reductions as regular treatments and services have been postponed. This of course has many negative consequences, e.g. cancers, heart defects, etc. not found.

            Demand on working staff has afforded them the time to produce some great dance videos.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCe1hc8GaJs

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              Kalm Keith

              Relaxing

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              Kevin kilty

              What we know of COVID-19 nationwide is by way generally of information provided through the media, so we have to discount its value severely. What I observed here locally is an absolute parody of what a sensible people would do. People have themselves convinced that if we had done (more specifically if only Trump had done) X,Y or Z then we would have had no trouble whatsoever. It is complete BS. The virus was extremely well mixed into the population very early with the aid of Chinese policy/response, and Democcrats blasting Trump for his xenophobia. We have a very large population of elderly who are not healthy, and who are warehoused in long term care. In fact, we have a large population of unhealthy people, period. There are people here in this town who insist we had no influenza the past 18 months, when I am told the covid ward locally was empty during the winter and the flu ward was full. My children came home from school with the usual number of colds and ILIs. No one notices anything and just think that what the national media tells them is truthful and applies everywhere. And then there was the local “testing” regime, which started and stayed as little more than a medieval ritual — 15,000 tests of persons without symptoms each week with some number of false results expected, but ignored. Some sick? Certainly, but who knows how many or whom. A litany of absurd rules to follow and procedures to be endured.

              As nearly as I can tell, no one learned a thing. Supposedly the medical profession learned to treat the sick more effectively, but if you look at the statistics carefully what you will notice is that the risk factor for death among cases for elderly remained very high throughout the past 18 months, and the lower death rate overall is entirely explained by a larger proportion of cases being confined to younger people. Medical facilities being paid, rewarded, for misreporting. Fabulous. It is a template now to follow in future.

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  • #
    another ian

    “Pangolins and Bats, Oh My”

    Wet market sales figures

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/06/08/pangolins-and-bats-oh-my/

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      MP

      Pangolins are off the hook.

      https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cla.12454?af=R

      Finally, despite a confusing array of reports confirming (Lam et al., 2020; Xiao et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020) and denying (Liu et al., 2020a) the pangolin origin of SARS-CoV-2 on small datasets, we can clearly say that, based on our analyses of large datasets both in terms of taxonomic and genomic sampling, pangolin-hosted (Manis javanica) CoVs are side events that are not part of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the human population

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    David Maddison

    Perhaps it should be called China Bioweapon V2.0.

    Perhaps the Chicomms have now given it a more potent payload after the v1.0 feasibility trials were determined to be successful and the Biden Maladministration will allow the Chicomms to do whatever they please toward their goal of world domination and destruction of the United States and the West in general.

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      I don’t think the CCP need to make the virus more transmissible — there have been 175 million people assisting the virus.

      That said, if the CCP flew in a sample from a region, tweeked it, and posted it back to an agent to release in the same region, how would we know?

      This is one reason the UK and US approaches with open borders are high risk. No matter where a highly transmissible variant arises, they will both “get copies” and the CCP doesn’t have to do a thing.

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        Kevin kilty

        In the U.S. we are not an island. We have 4,000 miles of land border, and one political party determined to keep the southern side completely open if possible at all costs. Closed borders is a fantasy here.

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          “Closed borders is a fantasy here.”

          Ever considered that is exactly what the Democrats want you to think?

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            Raving

            An open border which people only cross when they are invited to do so. It’s quite the fantasy and comes close to describing the situation between the U.S.and Canada. Yet even here there are illegal border movements Smugglers and more

            Then again I am old enough to remember when air travel was a rarity, where protectionism made it hard to send things internationally, where the iron curtain acted as a physical barrier. Closed borders were a stronger reality back then. Internet shopping was done through the local version of Sears Roebuck with a week for speedy delivery whilst in stock.

            It was a slow boat from China. Ocean liners were fhe fashion. Australia was very far away

            Open borders are a newish concept

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    Nezysquared

    Having listened to Dr Michael Yeadon (ex Vice President Pfizer) he stated that these variants are roughly 0.3% different to the original strain. This means a 99.7% similarity in a large virus with some 10,000 amino acids. If you accept that the current “vaccines” are effective then they will still invoke an immune response to any variant virus. The way the body’s immune mechanism learns about any corona virus is to split it up into segments until it finds recognisable patterns which it can then “latch on to”. With the variant strains being so similar it is apparently impossible for a successful vaccine to be ineffective. Link to the video here https://www.bitchute.com/video/qs9X8Blr4Ucv/.
    I am becoming exhausted by the continuing proliferation of these scare stories which mix up often poor epidemiological studies with terms like “double strength” strains dominating the picture. We will never be rid of the virus and like every other corona virus out in the wild it will continue to mutate. There will always be reservoirs of infected / infectious people in neighbouring countries. Poorly administered vaccine programs together with lockdowns have the potential to exacerbate the proliferation of other mutations. I see no one defining an end game – all I see is a panicked approach on what to do next. If we are trying to completely eradicate the virus globally I’m sure the wing commander of that squadron of pigs flying overhead has a few ideas. There are things we can do which include mass rollouts of Ivermectin which has the potential to stop the pandemic in its tracks. Perhaps the child journalists at newspapers like The West should read the following – https://covid19criticalcare.com/videos-and-press/flccc-releases/flccc-alliance-statement-on-the-irregular-actions-of-public-health-agencies-and-the-widespread-disinformation-campaign-against-ivermectin/. They, together with various governments, are complicit in the continuing suppression of both the drug and information surrounding its use and effectiveness. Jo is right in that it’s time to embarrass these people for not raising the issue.

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      percentages are misleading. Depending on where the change is is of more importance.

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        Nezysquared

        How so? Your statement in itself is meaningless without explanation.

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          A single amino acid change (caused by as few as one nucleotide) can have a dramatic effect on enzymatic action. More often the genetic change has no effect or it is detrimental. Since we don’t see the detrimental changes in the wild since they fail all the changes are weakly disantvantageous and better.

          It is true that as more changes accumulate as lineages diverge, that there will be a greater chance that a significant or detectible clinical effect would predicted.

          Percentages can be misleading if there are strong constraints on changes in proteins (which there often are), however changes in certain parts of the protein might be tolerated, and such changes should be associated with a clinical change. This means that relatively little amino acid differences can be important.

          The key to nutting this out is to look at neutral nucleotide changes and also enzyme models to see if there is an expected relationship of change and function.

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    Graeme P.

    I am very interested to know if there is an association with vaccination and the new strains.

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      Tides of Mudgee

      The comment at no. 4 above by Phillip Charles Sweeney seems to suggest that there is a link with the vaccine. Are we ever going to hear accurate figures of people hospitalised or dead BECAUSE of the vaccine. I think not. ToM

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      Trevor

      There was a theory about that, although the Delta (India) variant came about when India had a very low rate of vaccinations. There is also another variant out of Vietnam, which seems to be a combination of the UK and Indian variants. Vietnam also has a low rate of vaccinations at this time.

      Not saying this blows the vaccination causing mutations theory out of the water, just don’t think it is supported currently. Israel is a good place to keep an eye on with their high vaccination rates to see if the theory comes to pass there.

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        What on earth is any government thinking when they do not orchestrate and promote the use of ivermectin, HCQ, vitamin D, fresh air and sunshine!

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        shortie of greenbank

        I had thought the UK strain came out of the testing area for the UK version of the ‘vaccine’? It was tested both in the UK and South Africa and they both had remarkably similar strains appear in short order in these areas.

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        Tel

        India was doing very well back in 2020 when it had zero rate of vaccination … all the more impressive when you consider a country where they have a lot of poor people, and regions of intense crowding.

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      MP

      Fran, posted this on the last thread. not really the right place to drop it, but you will do.

      https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/05/the-lies-exposed-by-numbers-fear.html

      From a link within the link, good old statistics. Half the people that died were unvaccinated, speaks volumes.

      On Friday, IH’s chief medical health officer Dr. De Villiers said about half of the people who’ve died at the facility had not been vaccinated, “because of various reasons.”

      As he’s noted in the past, others who’ve contracted COVID-19 and died in long-term care homes may have shown no symptoms from the virus itself.

      “This is a facility where there are people who are elderly, and have got some concurrent diseases as well, and some of the people who passed away were palliative before they got COVID,” Dr. de Villiers said.

      Over the past week, nine more residents have tested positive at the facility.

      “Most of the increase were asymptomatic,” Dr. de Villiers said. “We go in every week or every second week depending on the facility and the outbreak, and we go in and retest everybody, even if they’re asymptomatic.”

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    India had already given several million vaccine doses before this strain appeared. Every single one of those is a biological experiment that can produce new strains.

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    John R Smith

    The variants are marginalized indigenous life forms that deserve the right to inclusion and to have their heritage respected and celebrated.
    I’m hanging a virus flag in my yard.

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      John R Smith

      Geez, isn’t there a ‘variant’ of the flu every year?
      ‘Variant’ another alarm word.
      Permanent institutional political ALARM.
      Don’t go out of your house without permission.
      You might die.
      So don’t live.
      We’ve become a culture worthy of only sarcasm and ridicule.

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        The flu vaccine has to be reformulated each year as a result. it is of great interest to understand if current vaccines work with new variants.

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          Analitik

          The “flu” is not a disease caused by a single virus but rather by a fair number of different viruses, each of which can have variants. What happens is that a couple of different viruses become dominant each season so there is a guessing game as to which these will be as the cocktail for the flu shot can only cover a few viruses . The variants within each virus are fairly well covered by the appropriate vaccine for that virus.

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            No. The flu is caused by four viruses that are very closely related with a fluid ability for genome combinations and large variability in the wild. I can’t see how this changes anything about the potential for the cars-cov2 to throw out variants that require new vaccine formulations.

            But good, at least, that you are with me and disagree with John’s assessment that “variant” is an alarm word.

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              The thing that makes influenza particularly dangerous is that the genome is split into eight segments. If two different infuenza’s enter the same cell at the same time, they can do swappable segments in their babies. It’s easier to create a different strain this way.

              https://www.cdc.gov/flu/resource-center/freeresources/graphics/images.htm

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                I know you weren’t correcting but just for others

                fluid ability for genome combinations =they can do swappable segments in their babies.

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                Analitik

                Doesn’t bacteria do this all the time?

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                Bacteria do swap bits of DNA — called plasmids, and they get viral infections too. But bacteria are alive, bigger, and have machinery of their own that we can target with antibiotics. Gives us a head start.

                Viruses are more a chemical than a living thing. Hard to kill something that is not alive, and uses our machinery, but the “great” thing about Covid is that we now know we have scores of antivirals we could use, if only we would use them.

                PS; Yes, GA, you are right. Not aimed at you. I just wanted to translate for the non-micro trained readers. Influenza is very different from Covid.

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              Analitik

              My apologies, Gee Aye. I’m getting influenza mixed up with the cold.

              I can admit when I’m wrong

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      tonyb

      John

      Your very good satire would however no doubt be seen as a politically correct rallying call by a significant proportion of the over woke young.

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    India daily cases have dropped from over 400,000 a day to just 125,000 a day.
    Active cases have dropped from 3.75 million, to 1.25 million.
    Deaths have dropped from over 4 thousand a day, to 2,250 a day. ( deaths showing the normal two week delay trailing case trends.

    At no point was India close to the per capital cases, deaths, and active case load of Britain and the US.

    The Areas of India using Ivermectin, HCQ and zinc are responsible for the rapid drop in these statistics.

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    Malcolm

    The most interesting thing about all this is seeing how hard Jo has fallen for the BS. If she applied the same level of skepticism to the covaids nonsense as she does to AGW then she’d recognise that we’re seeing another abuse of the scientific method and data fiddling to create a scare out of something which is no more remarkable than the flu.

    I’m sure I’m not the only one who is disappointed. Keep wearing your pointless mask and spruiking the ‘vaccine’ and lockdowns. Your delta and other scary strains are the equivalent of ‘our angry summer’ and extreme weather events.

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      Sonny

      Could not agree more.

      Jo, what is going on? Are you a shill?

      [Dont care how you dress it up an insult is an insult.]AD

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        Custer Van Cleef

        I gave a green thumb to AD’s insertion.
        Here’s a RED THUMB for “Are you a shill”.

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          MP

          Yeah Naa, not how this works. Its a question, The word “shill” is just a way of compressing the question down to one word.

          1. One who poses as a satisfied customer or an enthusiastic gambler to dupe bystanders into participating in a swindle.
          2. One who publicly promotes another’s cause, especially in an extravagant or misleading way.
          v. shilled, shill·ing, shills
          v.intr.
          To act as a shill.
          v.tr.
          1. To act as a shill for (a deceitful enterprise).
          2. To lure (a person) into a swindle.

          Still leaves the question?

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        Analitik

        This is utterly uncalled for and unworthy of this site.

        I strongly disagree with Jo on how we need to deal with this disease but discussion should remain cordial while being candid.

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      As soon as you have a specific criticism I’ll answer it.

      Amazing how twelve years of working at a significant sacrifice is not even worth the benefit of the doubt?

      It would be easy for me to say things I don’t believe and raise funds whipping up anger at hypocritical lockdowns and cherry pick studies showing masks don’t work. But I couldn’t do that knowing it wasn’t true, and that the way to stop lockdowns (if you really want to stop them) is to use hard borders and antivirals.

      Microbiology and genetics was and is my first passion in science and I’m more qualified in writing on these than on climate science. Genetics will change our lives far more than “climate science”.

      So I’ll just keep saying what I sincerely believe. Sorry if you don’t want to hear it OK? I’m sure I’ve lost donations but there is no point in being a blogger if I only tell people what they want to hear. I didn’t become a blogger “for the money”.

      PS: I’m not selling vaccines at all, only reality. The current vaccines may offer some protection from the current strains, though I worry about future strains and ADE, OAS and Immune Escape. And I worry about your health even if you don’t. Who wants to catch a bioweapon? As I keep saying the scandal is that we should have used antivirals first, second and third, and done vaccine development better and slower (if at all): https://joannenova.com.au/2021/05/did-they-forget-to-tell-us-leaky-vaccines-may-trigger-an-arms-race-that-makes-covid-more-dangerous/

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        Malcolm

        Pretend that you’re out to prove that the whole thing is a hoax with a sinister agenda driving it. You did a similar thing with AGW so we know you can do it. Start with the rubbish PCR ‘test’ which supports the alarming number of cases that you seem so excited about. Then move on to the jabs. Are they vaccines or toxic gene editing devices which can kill you or really mess you up? Is the cure worse than the disease? Jo – I’ll make a donation if you can show me that they’ve isolated the virus. Koch’s postulates?

        None of us here like having to say it but you write as though you’re not familiar with any of the arguments against your beliefs. Accordingly, you’re going to be accused of being a shill. That’s just how it works.
        When one views things through the lens of their chosen profession or area of expertise then they’re going to miss quite a bit of what’s really going on.

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        Jo, thank you for that clarifying post. (Especially the last sentence).

        Initially I bought the two plus week shut down, flatten the curve. Within a couple of months the positive effects of HCQ, zinc treatment was known. We knew about fresh air and sunshine from the spanish flu. Ivermectin said effectiveness was only a month or two later. The suppression of effective widely available treatments, the few negative studies of HCQ that went against KNOWN correct protocols, (Either overdosed, no zinc, or given very Kate to those already in intensive care, often a combination of all three obvious errors) is what really red flagged awareness of evil intent of tyrannically insane leaders.

        So the bottom line is, other then social distancing of the very vulnerable, in combination with effective prophylactic treatments, NOTHING else was needed.

        There are contrary mask studies. My take is proper mask use is partially effective in possibly lowering the infective fuse received. Yet proper mask use in the public is exceedingly rare, and improper use harmful and potentially increasing harmful doses to one infected with the wuflu or other diseases.

        And I support your thought that the vaccine was possibly not needed. Only I remove the question mark. IMV the vaccine negative reactions are poorly documented, despite how many there are. And the longer term negatives are potentially far worse. And they are being promoted by the same psychopathic tyrannical loons that willfully suppress known effective treatments, and greatly desire one world government. The fact that these yahoos are pushing experimental vaccines on children is very frightening, especially when connected to their documented remarks on overpopulation and there scientifically illiterate promotion of CAGW. Once we knew of effective treatments and the weakness of the wuflu to kill anyone but the very aged, I could no longer support any lock downs.

        Jo Nova, you are a treasure, and all your intelligence, sincerity and care is deeply appreciated, and needed!

        All the Best…

        Plato was right when he said, “ Such is the nature of the Tyrant, when he first appears he is a protector.”

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          Annie

          Well said David A.

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          Faye

          Thank you David A for your calming words and your verification of Jo Nova’s tireless work for us.
          Jo introduced me to the corrupt world of CAGW in 2009. Before then I was innocent – or was it, ignorant.
          Also worldwide, the manufactured Covid 19 is just as corrupt only with a quicker death rate. To think some doctors in cohort are ready to watch people die when they know most do not have to die is chilling. How can we trust anyone with power over us?

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    Yarpos

    Seems , again, to be a focus on cases and testing and being afraid.

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      Or just on data and science eh?

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      yarpos

      Ive got fear fatigue I guess, for all the data and science it seems India isnt doing that bad per capita compared to whats gone on before and elsewhere. Outcomes that is beyond cases, cases,

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    I’d like to see those graphs use 1.0 across the whole of time (ie all proportions adding up to 1 – in order to see proportions when overall numbers were low. Those early times are likely to show stochastic effects whereas the later dominance reflects real strain advantage.

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      Gee Aye, but the graphs are 1.0 all the way. What do you mean?

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        The grey makes them up to one. What is the grey?

        you have 1.0 set as the endpoint population size. I mean to make 1.0 for all time points.

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          Raving

          Grey is the Chinese main base = base covid-19 = grey

          All proportions (base + variants) add up to 1

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            The grey is untracked variants. (Presumably not grouped into large international common variants). https://covariants.org/per-country

            “Graphs show for each country, the proportion of total number of sequences (not cases), over time, that fall into defined variant groups.

            “The grey colour between the top of the coloured curve and ‘1’ on the Y-axis is composed of variants that aren’t currently tracked on CoVariants.”

            I should add to the post. Good point.

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              Thanks Jo. I wrote an apologetic reply to this yesterday which I was sure appeared here.

              Anyway, thanks for clarifying what I should have seen and the graphs, as they are, convey what I was looking for.

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    David Maddison

    I would like to see distinctions published between “positive PCR test results” vs the number of actually sick people with identifiable symptoms.

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      Why? And why can’t you do that yourself? Though remember that estimates are generally poor and variable by juristiction.

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        Analitik

        Because that is the diagnosis for every other disease. Ever. In history.

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          We’ve known about asymptomatic and presymptomatic infection for a long time. “Disease” obviously means sickness, but infected means infected. We’ve been able to distinguish them for decades.

          Typhoid Mary wasn’t sick but everyone around her got sick from the same thing.

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            Analitik

            Typhoid Mary was the tragic exception to the rule.
            Asymptomatic spread is the bogeyman in the covid-19 outbreak bring used to justify all the lockdowns and other restrictions imposed upon us.

            David’s question gets to the heart of the question of disease vs infection. With CoViD-19, the authorities are testing all infected people as diseased. Meanwhile all indications are that those without comorbidities (which includes age related conditions) will most often not have any symptoms are at all and of the others, the symptoms will mostly be mild.

            The cost of the lockdowns, economically, mentally and societally, are not comensurate with the direct effects of the disease. We need to learn how to deal and cope with it.

            Our isolation has meant that medical personnel here have almost zero professional curiosity in how covid-19 is actually treated at the frontline. They just buy the lines fed from the WHO and national health authorities (which follow the WHO) so we are all told to “follow the science” which is lockdowns and vaccinations.

            If “the science” is good on this front, why isn’t it applicable for climate change?

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              Asymptomatic spread is what makes SARS 2 so much worse than SARS 1. Harder to stop the spread.

              Testing is to stop the spread.
              We test people to find out who has the virus and if they can spread it and thus need to be isolated. We can’t tell asymptomatic from presymptomatic. So in theory we should also use testing to start preventative treatment with antivirals but the swamp is deep and we stupidly corruptly don’t do that. Shame, Shame, Shame on those docs.

              If we only tested sick people we would never stop the virus spreading without doing a mass longer lockdown.

              The cost of the lockdowns are a bargain compared to the economic damage from UK and USA rolling lockdowns. The best economies in the world are the healthiest ones. Best recovery from a short lockdown is a long healthy economy.

              Sadly our Docs have less freedom to prescribe off label, that is what makes them more likely to obey directives and authority. Many docs in US “have no interest” in antivirals too.

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                Peter C

                Asymptomatic spread is what makes SARS 2 so much worse than SARS 1. Harder to stop the spread.

                That seems to be true, but how much? Very hard to tell. Are infected people infectious for a few hours before symptoms onset or a few days?
                Limited information so far suggests a few hours.
                Health authorities are suggesting about a week of asymptomatic spread. Consequently their testing net is spread very wide (far too wide). A lot of testing is wasted and a lot of people are locked down who probably don’t need to be.

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                Raving

                Asymptomatic spread is what makes SARS 2 so much worse than SARS 1.

                You think so? I lived through the SARS 1 epidemic in Toronto and people were afraid. My family physician was afraid. Symptomatic or asymptomatic, the symptoms were similar to that of a cold.

                It was innate social distancing and fear rather than government mandated lockdown that saved us. People became quite desperate that they couldn’t seem to stop the transmission.

                SARS 1 being symptomatic was a bit of icing on a nasty cake. And yes the icing can be everything, especially when it is pavlova

                Imagine an outbreak of smallpox in the pre-covid19 developed world. You could be sure that as much stringent lockdown as necessary would be quickly imposed without second thought.

                We were lucky wih SARS 1. You are correct to be concerned about SARS 2

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            Tel

            It’s been possible to distinguish infected people from actually diseased people but in a normal year no one does that.

            There has never before in history been worldwide mass PCR testing like 2020 … no one did anything even remotely like this for earlier waves of seasonal flu. They could have done, but it didn’t happen.

            Therefore nothing in the present wave of “cases” has a precedent, and we should not consider any of the numbers to be particularly unusual because there is literally nothing to compare them to.

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    Analitik

    But the virus will keep mutating, and without a cocktail of drugs to reduce it dramatically, sooner or later a variant will arise that can get around the vaccine defenses. Using antivirals like Ivermectin or Hydroxychloroquine would dramatically slow the mutation rate.

    If this is the case, meaning CoViD-19 behaves unlike almost any other disease aside from influenza (which is actually a collection of diseases with very similar symptoms and effects), then all the more reason to forget this quarantining business and let it rip through the population, with appropriate support treatments and medications + vaccination & quarantining for the truly vulnerable.

    Then the normal herd/community immunity will occur and we all (worldwide) can get on with things

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      David Maddison

      They are playing a very dangerous and deadly game by not allowing herd immunity to become established in the traditional way.

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        Big Pharma really wants everyone to believe in “herd immunity”. It sells vaccines. But it isn’t that much use with a cluster spreader where one person can infect 5,000 in the right situation (See South Korea). Being surrounded by 95% immune people won’t protect anyone in a superspreader event.

        Letting the virus “rip” will overload hospitals (14% hospitalization rate in Victoria in 2020) and more people will die unnecessarily, unless we have widespread prophylactic drugs. Even in the West, we don’t have enough anaesthetic, pain killers and oxygen tanks for a virus with an R0 of 5 to double for long. Our ED;s are already on the brink (why? Has that got anything ot do with vaccination?)

        I remain slightly mystified that people who want freedom campaign to let the virus spread, but don’t campaign to get widespread antivirals approved first.

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          Analitik

          The hospitalization rate was driven by aged care centers being infected. Very different from a mass outbreak in the general population

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            No not so Analytic. Really sorry but there are people feeding bad info into this debate. See Australian demographics here:
            https://www.covid19data.com.au/demographics

            Highest rate of infection in Australia is in 20-30s.

            That was also true in the UK last Sept Oct. Remember when everyone watched those infections climb but the hospitalization rate was so low, they didn’t lockdown til too late, and the virus eventually spread from young people to older age groups making for a horrible winter. I posted on that in late October last year.

            Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

            It’s a lagged effect that can take 12 weeks from initial cases rising in young people until it infects older people trying to shelter, and then they get sick, and then hospitalizations start to rise. Then later, deaths rise. Some people thought it was herd immunity but it was only the young taking more risks than the old.

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              Analitik

              The age breakdown is for cases which are wildly inflated by the high cycle PCR tests being used to determine a “case” as opposed to checking for symptoms.

              Hospitalizations and deaths are much better indicators for how serious the outbreaks have affected the different she brackets.

              BTW, I asked someone in Pakistan about the CoViD-19 treatments being used over there (we work together remotely). He told me they had 2 different vaccines so I stressed I meant treatments for those infected. He laughed and said no one goes to hospital for CoViD-19 there but just stay at home and not many people die. I confirmed this with a local work colleague who has family there. Life has to go on, especially when your country can’t afford to have people doing nothing (which we can’t keep up)

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                MP

                The hospitalization rate

                And you got cases as a reply. Seems the lag has gone from 2 weeks to twelve now.

                Logic seems to of exited this debate. Like the India 1 million tests a day, must of had a freight service resupplying to keep that up, all to get annual average respiratory death numbers.

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                Apologies for the lag in replying.

                “The age breakdown is for cases which are wildly inflated by the high cycle PCR tests”

                Sigh. Here we are again at the PCR failure canard? Does anyone have any evidence that is happening in Australia?

                PCR tests can be abused, like any scientific test, but they work when done properly. So we have 35 years of reliable use in medicine, law, forensics, paleo-studies, botany, research etc, etc, sigh. Tested in court cases, and presumably (a little bit) in thousands of peer reviewed papers. Millions of tests in hundreds of independent laboratories on every continent. Could they all be cheating? Yet its become a seemingly impenetrable point. The debate always grinds to a stop here.

                In WA they’ve done 1.2 million PCR tests and found 1,018 cases and 1,000 of those were in quarantine, exactly as we’d expect given the virus is not known in the community, and there are not mysterious undiagnosed cases of the flu appearing in hospital.

                https://covidlive.com.au/

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          Tel

          Being surrounded by 95% immune people won’t protect anyone in a superspreader event.

          Yes it will … whatever R number would have otherwise been expected will be reduced by a factor of 20.

          The virus is infectious but it’s not a heat seeking missile.

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            Tel, the number of virions put out by an infected person is truly awesome. People who are considered to be borderline infectious have 1 x 10^6 virions per ml in saliva. The superspreaders have more in the order of 1 x 10^10 per ml.

            So in one hour, a superspreader can fill a whole room with a level of airborne virions per m3 that will mean that it won’t matter if there are ten people who are all immune standing in front of you. The virus is not a guided missile, it’s mass random infantry.

            Herd immunity will mean there are fewer superspreaders, so it will reduce the chances of there being a superspreader in the room. But covid is not influenza. It’s a cluster spreading disease. 1 in 4 people don’t spread it much at the moment, yet on average each person infected with covid will infect twice as many people as influenza does. And the indian variant will be 4 times as infectious.

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          Raving

          Vaccines can diminish the severity of symptoms. The covid vaccines do this well. Much benefit to vaccinating people to ease the load on the healthcare system. Its money well spent

          Vaccines can also diminish the transmission of disease. Covid-19 vaccines reduce Ro by maybe 50%. That is only a modest improvement.

          For me the big story is the ease and rapidity which we can now engineer an effective means of reducing symptoms/severity of a virus.

          Its only part of the story but worthwhile, nonetheless.

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            MP

            Not according to your Canadian doctor.
            Dr. De Villiers said about half of the people who’ve died at the facility had not been vaccinated, “because of various reasons.”

            No difference in the not a vaccine related deaths and un-not a vaccine related deaths, none, zip, nada.

            But I got an out when asked if I want to top myself, “because of various reasons.”

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    Raving

    The delta variant is much harder to test for than the uk variant.

    Seen a better reference but reference below makes mention of the testing problem and other Delta stuff.

    The Uk variant is easily detected by a specific marker. No such luck yet with tagging and testing for the Delta variant

    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/how-ontario-s-spike-in-delta-variant-cases-impacts-fight-against-potential-fourth-wave-1.5454575

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    Old Goat

    It is worthy of note – with the spanish flu it was gone as a pandemic in 3 years.It would appear that it mutated into something much less fatal . Have hope people , it will pass . Politics, the media and the medical industry has made it into something that it is not . As to its origins I think the USA has as much to answer for this as the CCP with “gain of function”.

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      Old Goat, agreed, though with mass vaccination and a coronavirus the process may be very different to Spanish flu which was not a cluster spreader, and generated 100% lifelong immunity.

      If we are creating a Mareks disease of humans because of leaky vaccines, we need to get antivirals asap.

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        Ian

        A very interesting article, well worth reading as it gives a very plausible scenario for a natural`l source of the virus, from The WSJ and just published in The Australian headlined

        “Coronavirus: Live wildlife sold in Wuhan markets before Covid-19 outbreak, study shows”

        https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/coronavirus-live-wildlife-sold-in-wuhan-markets-
        before-vovid19-outbreak-study-shows/news-story/457afc0d42f8a9ee49f346f733818cb9

        The report just published after an inordinate length of time in the peer review process states

        More than 47,000 wild animals were sold in the Chinese city of Wuhan in the 2½ years before the first confirmed Covid-19 cluster was found there, a new study shows, providing critical new evidence that the coronavirus could have spread naturally from animals to humans.

        The study, published in the open-access journal Scientific Reports, revealed that the wild animals, including 31 protected species, were often butchered on site in markets, and stored in the kinds of cramped, unhygienic conditions that can allow viruses to hop species.

        Those animals included at least four species that scientists say can carry the Covid-19 virus — civets, mink, badgers and raccoon dogs — according to the study by researchers from the China West Normal University, the University of Oxford and Canada’s University of British Columbia.

        The study published this week also shows, for the first time, that much of the wildlife trade in Wuhan was illegal, with no enforcement of mandatory checks on the health and origins of animals sold.

        The study published this week also shows, for the first time, that much of the wildlife trade in Wuhan was illegal, with no enforcement of mandatory checks on the health and origins of animals sold.

        The WHO-led team visited Wuhan early this year and inspected places including the Huanan food market, around which many of the earliest Covid-19 cases were found in December 2019, prompting Chinese authorities to announce that the likely source was wild meat sold there.

        The team said in March it had found no proof of live mammals being sold at that market — though it noted some reports they had been — and quoted market authorities saying all wildlife traded there was legal. It also visited Wuhan’s Baishazhou market and said it found no evidence of wildlife being sold there.

        The Scientific Reports paper painted a very different picture. It was based on a survey of 17 shops at four different markets in Wuhan — including Huanan and Baishazhou — conducted as part of a study on the spread of a tick-borne disease among animals.

        The paper’s release comes amid escalating calls for a fuller examination of an alternative hypothesis on the origins of the virus — repeatedly denied by China — that it might have spilled from a laboratory in Wuhan that was experimenting with coronaviruses found in bats.

        Although most scientists still consider it more likely that the virus spread naturally from animals to humans, none have been able so far to find an ancestor to the virus or identify the species that might have acted as an intermediary host.

        The paper provides among the strongest clues yet.

        “It is an actual smoking gun,” said Robert Garry, a virologist at Tulane University School of Medicine, in New Orleans,

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          Analitik

          BS. The Wuhan wet market was destroyed by the government last year. That report is simply drawing its conclusions from statements made by the CCP scientists and doctors that they were allowed to briefly vinterview.

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          Kevin kilty

          Although most scientists still consider it more likely that the virus spread naturally from animals to humans, none have been able so far to find an ancestor to the virus or identify the species that might have acted as an intermediary host.

          Right there most likely is the smoking gun, or one of them. Scientists “beliefs” versus the exceptional inability to find the intermediate species. Many other smoking guns when one examines the behavior of the Chinese toward any serious examination of Wuhan or WIV. Journalists just use the phrase “smoking gun” to sound street tough. They don’t actually know what it means.

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          William Astley

          Ian,

          The wild market origin of covid… Is a scam. A detail analysis of the covid genome shows that it has specific sequences that could not have occurred naturally. Viruses are not naturally super dangerous and super infectious. There is zero physical evidence to support the ‘theory’ that covid is natural.

          Covid is not however invincible. The spike is also it weakness.

          The covid spike has never been seen in nature before. Complex biochemical machinery that causes complex symptoms cannot appear from nothing. The covid spike and covid was created in lab.

          The covid spike has three novel features. These are features that are rare in viruses or features that have never been seen before and are the key novel features which makes covid so dangerous and contagious.

          The covid spike has the biochemical apparatus to attach to our ACE-2 connector cell, has the biochemical connector to by pass the blood brain barrier which enables covid to cause brain damage, and has the a never before seen biochemical ability to inhibit the body’s pain response to a virus attack.

          Covid anaesthetizes (stops the pain signal that is normally produce) when covid attacks the throat cells, before moving on to attack the lungs.

          The covid victims are hence less like to isolate.

          https://www.newsmax.com/health/headline/covid-19-pain-killer-pandemic/2020/10/06/id/990680/
          Can COVID-19 kill pain? That is the possibility raised by University of Arizona researchers who found SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, might function as a pain killer.
          If that theory proves to be true, it might be one of the reasons so many infected people walk around unaware they have the disease.

          There are multiple analytical methods to prove that covid was designed in a lab. One of the most obvious is the fake science that the CCP produced to support the wild theory.

          http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/is-coronavirus-man-made-the-bat-virus-it-evolved-from-appears-to-be-faked/

          The covid Bat virus code which it was claimed covid was related (there is no actual bat virus samples, all of the covid related viruses at the Wuhan lab were destroyed) was entered into a virus data base, January 2, 2020 by ….

          You known…. The Bat Lady, Dr. Shi Zhengli, who works at the Wuhan lab who also destroyed all samples. The code for the bat virus looks as if it is fake.

          “…that SARS-CoV-2 is supposed to have evolved from looks unmistakably artificial — in sections it contains far too many “mutations” that matter but hardly any of the normal noise of silent mutations which always occur naturally alongside the mutations which change the end product. Like someone cut and pasted multiple photos together with different background noise.

          Other sections of the bat virus code which ought to mutate quickly are suspiciously identical and unchanged, and didn’t mutate at all. (In the wild there is little selective pressure on something called “E Proteins” and they vary a lot in other coronaviruses. They are already mutating fast in the pandemic but somehow were “frozen” in time in RaTG13.)”

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            Ian

            You are forgetting that two different viruses can enter a cell simultaneously and can then swap parts of their genomes to produce something different from either.

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          wokebuster

          Psst, how do I get on the CCP payroll? I need a few extra bucks.

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    Furiously Curious

    The greed is getting pretty naked. I was wondering how long ‘THE MONEY’ was going to allow India to keep leaking another narrative.
    It seems they lost control for some bureaucrats, who unaccountably started to worry about the lives of their fellow countrymen, and tried to find something to help.
    ‘THE MONEY’ still controlled the media, so when the Goan minister of health announced blanket use of Ivermectin, he always was shown discussing with a couple of naysayers.
    News media was solidly behind ‘unproven’ and ‘useless’. Fine work was done in Tamil Nadu, having the new govt banning IVM, and handing over fistfuls of funds for Remdesiveer,
    but now they have realised they have to pull up their socks, as Northern India was getting out of control, with well serviced cities like Mumbai and Delhi, slashing their cases by 90%’.
    The countryside was well behind, but trending down too. People were starting to talk!
    So it looks like the fix is in. The WHO is proving a stalwart ally, and the media will crank up their blanket of silence, and misinformation.
    Has There been any coverage of India’s situation on the TV lately? It was pretty hard to avoid a few weeks ago. It’s going to be pretty interesting (and sickening)
    seeing the battles won and lost. There is a war out there.

    I found it interesting from the Zimbabwe doctor, saying hit it hard and early, and don’t be afraid of a very high dose, when you have to fight a high virus load.
    She’s saying every family has a bottle on the shelf (they have a liquid form!) ready to take at any sign of illness, and she has had people mistakenly just drink the whole lot,
    100 ml/mg?, after being rather sick, and a few hours later they are off playing golf. Life on the frontier! She got covid a second time, badly, and took 100ml/mg? no problems!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtoOw9VqjI0

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    David Maddison

    Bioweapons have never been used at a large scale because of the possibility of infecting your own people if there was no vaccine.

    The Chicomms have no such issue because they really don’t care about losing one, two or three hundred million of their own people if it helps them achieve their objectives.

    As Kurt Tucholsky said in his 1932 essay:

    The death of one man: this is a catastrophe. Hundreds of thousands of deaths: that is a statistic!

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      yarpos

      Chines citizens are not a fungible resource. They lose 100-300 million of the wrong ones , they are in deep do do.

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    Analitik

    Great speech by Dutch politician, Thierry Baudet on the stupidity and corruption of their government’s response to CoViD-19. Everything he says about the lockdowns, experimental immunization, suppression of existing medications, etc applies here.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1401075443600527360

    H/t American Thinker

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      Yes, I predicted that keeping borders open would lead to repeat lockdowns because the public in any democracy would vote for health and having hospitals that were available rather than overrun. It was obvious no democracy would sacrifice their parents and put up with a 10% disability long covid rate. And why should we when it is so easy to stop a Chicomm bioweapon?

      The stupidity of the UK and USA and the EU has been very sad to watch as they fell repeatedly into the same trap. They thought they could “manage” a low infection level and stop an exponential force of nature getting out of hand which only takes weeks.

      The UK could have extinguished the Chicomm bioweapon last summer and they would be living free like we Australians (mostly) do. Now they hope the vaccines will save them from a fourth wave, but I fear they won’t. Who would wish another lockdown on the UK yet if the Indian variant runs free that may happen?

      Baudet is brave on Ivermectin, good for him. Needs to read some virology though.

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        Analitik

        living free like we Australians (mostly) do

        And what of us few australians locked down for the fourth time in less than 18 months?

        The only way out of this groundhog day situation is going along with the mass vaccinations, going by your logic. If that is the case, the CoViD-19 is a uniquely challenging disease

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          Yes , my heart goes out to Victorians who have really suffered in this. The first three lockdowns were due to incompetence. The last one due to the breach in Adelaide could have happened to any state. But we now know there was a another breach in Melbourne quarantine just after that. There is a pattern.

          Melbourne businesses need compensation. It’s been awful and it’s not their fault. I fully support that.

          Hard competent borders and good antivirals could have stopped it all. Damn.

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            Analitik

            Australia cannot afford to keep bailing out businesses shut down by government mandates. It’s not fair to the rest of Australia to keep bailing out a state that chooses to pursue elimination rather than control. And I say this as a Victorian.

            It was admitted by Brett Sutton today that the Victorian government that this is their goal. This is NOT what the lockdowns were intended for and unless we totally close all international borders, it is inevitable that it will happen again.

            We must use the lessons learnt overseas to live with this disease. Life needs to go on – not stay in limbo.

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              yarpos

              how about helping fellow Australians rather than bailing out businesses

              just like money spent on cyclones and bushfires etc

              but agree the govt mandates and incompetence paint everything in a different colour

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                Analitik

                Cyclones are unavoidable natural events that can’t be mitigated. Bushfires are MOSTLY unavoidable natural events that can only be mitigated up to a point (sensible clearing of undergrowth and tree limbs and clearing zones)

                The lockdowns are entirely avoidable, government decree events. If they were imposed at a national level of government, then there would be some justification for other states to support Victoria but the decision was entirely local. What’s to stop other states from imposing lockdowns with minimal outbreaks and then cry for financial aid.

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              Kalm Keith

              Exactly.

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            Raving

            Notice how island nations like to emphasize ‘hard competent borders’ !

            The UK really let the team down on that one

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          Peter C

          The only way out of this groundhog day situation is going along with the mass vaccinations,

          Do Not Have Vacc if you want to live!
          https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-06-08-mrna-vaccines-instruct-cells-to-clog-blood.html

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            Kalm Keith

            As mentioned a week ago, a sixty years old woman reported a night of frightening hell after the first “jab”. Two of her acquaintances reported similar.

            From the description it sounded like the reaction was excessive and not something that should be tolerated in a routine vaccination.

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              Raving

              Just survived the night after my 2nd jab. Maybe a slightly sore arm but could easily be imagining such a thing. To be fair I have had flu booster shots with worse after effect

              The paramedic administering the shot told me of his considerable reaction to a 2nd dose. He advised me not to got to a hospital unless I had trouble breathing! The youth of today are confused by panic attacks

              Your Mileage May Vary (automobile advertisement)

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        Kevin kilty

        I can’t speak for the UK or EU, but over-run hospitals were not any sort of pervasive problem in the US. Our death rate was not the result of inability to get care. Outside of a few hospitals in the exceptionally urbanized Northeast, most hospitals had trouble financially because they had so few patients. In places they laid-off staff. Eventually they found they could use the COVID reporting rules for economic benefit. And what we have now is a data mess, an epidemic that in places existed or exists mostly on paper. A very common situation here was this: lab confirmed “case”, eighteen years old, never showed symptoms, never infected close contacts. What do you call that? Here is another: family of six, two test postive but are not especially ill, most ill person in family tests negative, other three are exposed repeatedly, test negative, never ill. One of these last three is labeled the source. All considered recovered cases after fourteen days. I am not sure we will ever really know what happened.

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          MP

          Most noticed that. First cut the hospitals income stream, then offer incentives foe the Rona patients.

          Its a big marketing run for Pharma, everything we are being told/shown is marketing.

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    Normally with viruses they mutate over time and weaken. There is no issue with this or any other variant more than for covid anyway, which for those under 70 its a mortality of 0.014%. We all know that what with excessive PCR cycles, “assumptions” of covid death and the fact that 94% die with covid, not of it that the actual mortality will be far lower than the deaths reported. This is a manufactured crisis. Covid is there but its not the issue its made out to be.

    The impact of the variants on vaccines comments here seem to be more hysteria rather than reality. Mike Yeadon and others I have read on confirm that the vaccines we have should be able to cope with new variants without an issue, given their actual variation is minimally different from the base virus. Seems more a Big Pharma sales pitch for more unnecessary vaccines!

    I do agree that Ivermectin, long neglected in the West, needs to be used and will be very effective.

    And lockdowns are futile and deadly, causing massive damage to our society and with no better result than commonsense and good hygiene. They should be immediately banned forever.

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      Sigh. And Excess deaths show that Covid kills more people than get tested positive in nations where the virus overwhelms hospitals. We saw that in the UK USA Brazil, India, Iran, Italy, Spain, etc etc etc.

      Lockdowns are the last worst choice when all the easy cheap measures weren’t used. That’s why people who don’t like lockdowns need to protest for action earlier and sooner (borders and antivirals) rather than waiting for the situation where there is no other choice.

      Big Pharma thanks all conservatives who don’t talk about borders and antivirals and protest instead far too late to achieve anything.

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        Analitik

        With all due respect, Jo, you are now fear mongering by presenting a single side in your argument.

        Why not also discuss Florida, Texas and South Dakota where lockdowns were minimal or not imposed at all yet hospitals were not overwhelmed and general mortality was low?

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        Yes Jo – “overwhelmed hospitals” in the UK, for instance, that are always overwhelmed in the flu season, ditto italy . South Dakota never ever locked down and never ever had problems with its health facilities. Sweden also never had overwhelmed facilities.

        I say again that covid is basically totally and utterly overhyped. For the aged we need to take care of them, but for the rest of us OPEN BORDERS and NO LOCKDOWNS work just fine. Let people make up their own minds and sort themselves out, rather than having some “big brother” incompetent govt try to do it, and cause all sorts of disasters which actually kill more people than covid ever will. This is essentially the Swedish game plan and was the official way to deal with pandemics until the Leftist bedwetters got hold of it.

        Spend the billions on keeping those elderly or co morbid who want to sorted, and provide plenty of Ivermectin and nobody else will really notice anything much more than a severe flu season.

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          I did write about Sweden, and it wasn’t good. I predicted it would be bad, and was right. The only thing I got wrong was that I thought they would give up on the bad approach sooner. But they did eventually admit they got it wrong. During the worst peak Sweden didn’t allow anyone over 80 to the ICU’s, they let them die in nursing homes, that stopped hospitals being overwhelmed but isn’t much of a solution. . Swedes live 50% by themselves in permanent “isolation”. And they do mandatory Vit D. They also bullied and threatened any doctors who didn’t like the official approach. The Swedes could have had some of hte best statistics in the West.

          IT’s true, I haven’t looked at the details of Texas and Florida, but they are southern states with higher Vit D, maybe also higher use of Hydroxy as an antimalarial (I really don’t know, does anyone have that info? ) Perhaps more of their doctors use antivirals?

          I’m keen to know more about those states if anyone can find a write up which is factual and not left or right leaning agitprop.

          Remember there was voluntary isolation in all countries as well like Sweden where people stay home, stop shopping, restaurants go out of business.

          I don’t like “deaths per million” while the pandemic is still running, as it can be half-baked and not useful, but for what it’s worth South Dakota is the 9th highest death rate of the 50 states and 3rd highest infection rate. Not much of an endorsement. Florida and Tex are 27th and 24th for death rates, so middling, but should they have done better given the Vit D factor, hotter weather? There are so many factors at play. Some states will have older populations and more high risk genetics. Higher pop density. More use of antivirals. They will have fewer people living in high density apartments. Fewer foreign tourists. But I’m all ears if someone can find a write up with all the factors but not a political lecture. It should include movement data, confounders, genetics, demographics, Vit D, antiviral use, as well as lockdowns.

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            Analitik

            Again, you are looking at infection rates while actual disease levels are far lower and deaths, outside those with comorbidities, is very low.

            The use of high cycle PCR testing to determine the spread of SARS-CoV-2 inflates the direct effects of the disease, CoViD-19. Meanwhile, the indirect effects, through lockdowns and restrictions, are obvious.

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            Tel

            I don’t like “deaths per million” while the pandemic is still running, as it can be half-baked and not useful, but for what it’s worth South Dakota is the 9th highest death rate of the 50 states and 3rd highest infection rate. Not much of an endorsement.

            https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-death-rates-by-state/

            Based on that, South Dakota are 5th, but the three worst of the worst are New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts and they are all left-leaning lockdown enthusiast states.

            Can you explain the difference between Mississippi and Missouri?

            How about Massachusetts vs New Hampshire?

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              Tel, are you expecting me to champion their incompetence. 😉 C’mon seriously.

              Given there are twenty variables that change the outcome in every state and no one can find a document that lists that data — we wont find much insight with single factor data games. By cherry picking both of us can find the exact opposite “is true”.

              Skyscrapers full of apartments with cold winters and dark colored skin are a recipe for ghastly disease. What happened in NY was criminal, but if they’d shut the border as I recommended — it wouldn’t have happened. Given the timing, NY shows that lockdowns work but only as a crippling last resort.

              Comparing US states is problematic because none of them can stop people bringing diseases from the other states. So all 50 states are a mush of confounding factors influenced by the success and failure of the states around them. That’s another reason why I haven’t dived into that data.

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                Raving

                I understand why you prefer antivirals. It’s the leak through mutations. Even WHO agrees with you on that one. I understand why you were in favor of masks even before most countries recommended them. I understand why you argue for closed borders, strong lockdowns and vigorous tracing. You preceeded that expert guidance. You have gotten so much about this pandemic correct before the evolving mainstream.

                What I don’t understand is why you continue emphasize antivirals and other prophylaxis when they are still struggling to gain legitimacy. It’s hard finding good antivirals. Any possible lead is worth serious consideration. We need antivirals to stop this plague. Yes, yes, yes. I get it if not mostly agree and sympathize. It all can’t work and much of it will prove to be a dud despite for the desire for otherwise. Antivirals are hard to find

                What I don’t understand is why you ignore the advancement in technology demonstrated by mRNA vaccines. There are a proven game changer now. They can be relied upon for rapid reformulation with a degee of confidence. Maybe covid19 will become endemic forever mutating or maybe it won’t do so. Whatever the case the world is in a far better position to win this arms race than pre covid19. Scientists were broadly pessimistic aboutthe timeframe for vaccine development. They were genuinely overjoyed when it happened so rapidly.

                The exlosion of gene technology has already occurred, yet you continue to ignore it as if it remains mired in the past.

                I can only wish that speedy development proceeds so well with antivirals.

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            red edwards

            Jo, Texas and Florida do not have any endemic malaria (there is none in the US.) So there are no anti malarial drugs in use here, except for travelers to endemic areas. Undoubtedly there are drugs used in individual cases coming into the US, but once again these are “one of” situations.

            The main mosquito bourne diseases here are native (and also non-native) viral encephalitises.

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        The current great reduction in India of active cases, new cases, and deaths is instructive. I will look for the breakdown of those providences that used HCQ, zinc, and Ivermectin, as they are the cause of the dramatic drop in cases. All wuflu statistics are questionable and complicated. Yet until the recent surge in India, India was relatively untouched, despite massive and necessary ignoring of social distancing. ( hundreds of people often sharing one toilet, intense population density.)
        Why? (? Natural immunity due to long term exposures to colds and flues, more sunshine exposure and less vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D is encouraged in India. Poor tracking explains at most 10 to 15 percent of the reduced numbers in India. Until recently their hospitals were not overwhelmed. )

        The Florida Texas studies do support that currently lock downs USA style are useless, because the cases and hospitalization rate drop there are very pronounced. Why? Between scary initially effective vaccines, and greater exposure and natural immunity, and more widespread use of HCQ and Ivermectin and sunshine and vitamin D in conservative areas, is in my view the most likely reasons there has been a continued reduction of wuflu in the aged population in Florida and active population in Texas.

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    another ian

    “Cleveland Clinic Study Shows No Benefit From Vaccine For Those Who Previously Had COVID, No Need to Vaccinate Those With Antibodies
    June 8, 2021 | Sundance”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/06/08/cleveland-clinic-study-shows-no-benefit-from-vaccine-for-those-who-previously-had-covid-no-need-to-vaccinate-those-with-antibodies/

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    Epicurious

    CASES, CASES, CASES! No-one can agree on what a case is. If it is simply a positive from a PCR test then we all know that is as useless as getting a truthful, consistent message from Herr Dr Fauci. The UK is supposedly one of the top countries with cases however look at the All Causes Mortality for 1990-2020 and you will see that in 13 of the last 31 years the UK had greater Age-standardised mortality rate (per 100,000 population) greater than 2020. And that for the 9 years preceding 2020 the rate was quite below the then average so one could expect a “backlog” of deaths to eventually present. All a great big hullabaloo over a return to the mean.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

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    Epicurious

    Refer to my comment at #26

    The average mortality rate per annum for the period 1990 to 2020 inclusive is 1,171 deaths per 1 million with 14 of the 31 years reflecting rates higher than the average, of which 2020 was the lowest of all these 14 years by far and 2020 was the 11th lowest of all 31 years. Some pandemic!

    The world needs to get a grip.

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    roman

    Something that is 5x more infectious than something mostly harmless, is still mostly harmless. (Infectability is not the same as severity.) The gov response is still massively disproportional. Still a fakedemic.

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    Chris

    This is interesting from the Jerusalem Post- , 9/6/21

    An HIV-positive woman with a persistent coronavirus infection that lasted 216 days straight had the virus mutate within her over 30 times, according to new research.

    The study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, detailed the HIV-positive patient’s more than seven month infection as part of a cohort study of 300 other people with HIV – exploring the effect of a SARS-CoV-2 infection when introduced to an immune system with a present HIV infection.

    Of the mutations found in the patient, both the UK and South African variants were noted to be present at one point or another throughout the length of the woman’s infection.

    Throughout the course of the study, the woman, identified as being a 36-year-old living in South Africa, flip-flopped between stages of being asymptomatic and symptomatic, and through the symptomatic stages she reportedly shared some of the normal symptoms associated with a typical coronavirus infection – such as sore throat, cough, difficulty breathing, chest tightness, etc.

    The woman was initially treated in the hospital following the onset of her symptoms, and following her stay she displayed milder symptoms of the virus while still testing positive for the novel disease. The woman became infected with coronavirus in September, with a strain of the virus that was typical during the first wave of infections in the country.
    During that time, the coronavirus dawdling throughout her system underwent 13 genetic changes related to the coronavirus’ spike protein. Some 19 other shifts in the coronavirus’ genetic makeup were noted to change the behavior of the virus. Some strengthened the virus, others proved to have the potential to resist vaccine compounds and others blocked drugs that have the ability to treat COVID-19.

    Despite the subject’s short stints of clinical illness, with moderate severity, the study notes that there is an association with COVID-19 patients who are immunosuppressed and an increased risk of more severe disease and death from a coronavirus infection.

    It is noted that patients who have HIV are not more susceptible to contracting a coronavirus infection than those without, nor does it worsen the medical implications of the infection.

    Additionally, the fact that the disease stays present within the body of immunosuppressed patients for longer periods of time compared to healthier individuals could mean that HIV patients could be an incessant source of transmission and mutations of the coronavirus – almost like a factory of variants.

    The researchers have noted similar occurrences in at least four other HIV patients, where the virus was present in their systems for over a month, according to the LA Times. Insider noted that there have been cases within kidney transplant recipients where they carried the virus for over a year.

    According to the research, this could muddle up efforts to rid the world of the novel disease that has claimed the lives of millions and could shift importance to diagnosing or treating people with HIV in order to stymie further mutations of the coronavirus.

    These efforts “would reduce mortality from HIV, reduce transmission of HIV, and also reduce the chance of generating new COVID variants that could cause other waves of infections,” said Tulio de Oliveira, one of the study leaders, according to the LA Times.

    The report added that while it is unsure if the woman passed on the infection to other individuals, the researchers purport that it’s no “coincidence” that new variants of concern have emerged from populations like South Africa KwaZulu Natal province, where a bit over one in four adults have HIV – with South Africa as a whole hosting around 2.2 million untreated HIV-positive individuals, and less than 200,000 people vaccinated.

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      Thanks Chris. This like the case I mentioned in the post on Mareks disease. One immunosuppressed man kept producing different mutations for 170 days. They tracked all those mutant in him too.

      This is why half-baked vaccines that “leak” are so dangerous. These long infections will ensure the worst kind of mutations will arise and defeat our vaccine prepped immune systems.

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    Faye

    Just read where India’s Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) has removed ivermectin as a method to treat COVID-19. Ivermectin must be too good at saving people’s lives and that would upend the destructive path that the WHO and its global mates want us to follow.

    My question is why vaccinations? when ivermectin with zinc etc and hydroxychloroquine used early will kill the virus. Cheap and effective. No wonder the awful people are bagging the two hero drugs as soon as they start to show they are saving lives!

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    el gordo

    NSW should have closed the border to avoid free radicals escaping.

    ‘Fears Victorian virus crisis has moved north as a woman who fled Melbourne’s lockdown tests positive on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast.’ (Oz)

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      MP

      Yep so infectious she traveled from Victoria to QLD in a car with her partner, lived in a house with her family and no one else got it, she had no symptoms.
      Be afraid be very afraid.

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    Philip

    I said when the first covid arrived from Iran to Adelaide, shut the border, build desert camps where people who return to Australia must go. Its plain simple pest management, cut the vector and isolate. Would have saved us billions. But nay nay nay they said, you’re just racist (which is true).

    A few weeks later I talked to a guy with no teeth who chops firewood for a living and he said, it’s come from a lab in Wuhan which is funded by the yanks.

    But what would we know ? Leave it to the experts.

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    UK-Weather Lass

    In my neck of the woods it is hard to distinguish between what was normal pre-March 2020 and what is abnormal now. Masks are worn in shops in spite of all the science which still questions their veracity outside of clinical settings in acting as a barrier to transmission. Traffic jams have returned. Streets are seldom quiet except in the early hours. There is still a sense of fear partly driven by local outbreaks of the Indian* variant which may be dominant but is, at least according to experts outside the usual doom-mongerers, less likely to cause serious infection and no more or less transmissable than the other variants. It is spreading among a population that may have been insulated from previous spreads and you can tell from the maps where it was most likely to occur.

    My personal view is that the UK would be stupid to delay a complete return to normality on the first day of our astronomical summer. But we have stupid politicians listening to not so optimistic people who have enjoyed a profitable period in the limelight. It is time, in my opinion, to put SARS-CoV-2 into perspective and start a serious investigation into how we got things so very wrong from the very first appearance of this virus. It is time for us to tell the rest of the world that this virus can be lived with and does not require draconian measures to keep people genuinely safe and secure without guranatees that were never going to be safe to give.

    *What possessed WHO to complicate the matter of variants by changing their names? Is there anyone left in WHO with a functioning brain?

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      tonyb

      like climate scientists our UK virus scientists are reluctant to give up the limelight even when their prognostications are suspect.

      I would like some people put in prison for the fear and panic they have engendeered which includes an equal number of scientists and politicians.

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    JB

    Why did all the vaccines get EUA, while HCQ and Ivermectin did not??? Because if any treatment was shown to work well the vaccine rollouts, under EUA, would’ve been illegal.

    AND WHERE DID THE PHRASE FALSE-POSITIVE GO? Why has there been ZERO effort by anyone to distinguish between actual illness and false-positive test results?

    Why are we all embracing the lab-leak theory now and not asking if this was biowarfare? Ralph Baric’s lab at Chapel Hill worked directly with the WIV on gain-of-function research on SARS. In fact, Baric has done a lot of it:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/105/50/19944

    And why is no one looking at the Tokyo lab that added a furin cleavage site to SARS-CoV back in 2008? Why are so many people unable to use a search engine. I found this paper back in February of last year:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2583654/

    … WE INTRODUCED A FURIN-LIKE CLEAVAGE SEQUENCE in the S protein at amino acids 798 to 801…

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    JB

    Zinc is probably ineffective. I have heard one personal story and read another online that has led me to believe that people have probably been overdosing themselves on zinc throughout this whole thing, Too much zinc can CAUSE flu-like symptoms, as well as mess with taste and smell. And think about it. Pretty much every other metal you can think of is toxic in small amounts: lead, aluminum, mercury…
    ——
    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/03/28/zinc-effective-against-respiratory-infections/

    “… although it is unclear whether zinc lozenges are helpful, they do definitely cause mild but annoying side effects in a significant proportion of those taking them.”

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      David A

      Zinc is clearly affective, as it will destroy a virus it is delivered to. ( this is not really controversial)

      HCQ is the messenger that delivers the zinc. As with ALL medications, dosage is important.

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    JB

    Ralph Baric’s long paper on biowarfare:

    https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/39652/Baric%20Synthetic%20Viral%20Genomics.pdf;sequence=1

    Baric writes: “counterterrorism think-tanks anticipate that these particular threats will ameliorate [i.e., improve, not go away] over the next decade because of medical countermeasures (e.g., drugs, vaccines, diagnostics) …”

    In other words, lucky for us that MAYBE we can be vaccinated and cared for by the same people, who have been working on making biowarfare so easy, for decades!

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    Alice Thermopolis

    Is using the Greek alphabet to name variants WHO’s biggest PR failure to date?
    The step apparently was taken because the countries of origin did not want variants that identified them, for one reason or another.
    If so, it seems to have been a failure.
    The MSM simply use both because referencing variants quickly became a confusing mess.
    How many letters are there in the Greek alphabet?
    And then what….?

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      Raving

      They should use a hurricane/cyclone naming nomenclature

      Generic _nn, alpha/beta/delta variant isn’t memorable

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        It’s a pain. Did you know that different groups of coronaviruses were already taxonified into alpha, beta …. it;s quite daft. Hence I will keep calling them the UK, SAfrican, Indian etc variant as well.

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    Raving

    It found immunisation with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren’t vaccinated.

    https://bhekisisa.org/article/2021-05-26-can-you-still-spread-the-coronavirus-after-getting-a-vaccine/

    Hoped to find a clearer statment but this suggests only 50% suppression of onward transmission with fully vaccinated.

    Cannot see herd immunity ever being achieved with an enduring infection. As per Jo points out, contagious variants circulate asymptotically throughout the population. Vaccination mutes the symptomatic manifestation

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      Yonason

      Yes. See link in my post #40 below. Merely muting transmission allows for continued mutation, which can only compound the problem down the road.

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    If you can detect all of these “Variants” then why no one can detect that this virus was made in a lab and has no previous ancestor?

    ‘Covid-19 has no credible natural ancestor’: Explosive study claims Chinese scientists created virus in lab.
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/covid-19-has-no-credible-natural-ancestor-explosive-study-claims-chinese-scientists-created-virus-in-lab/articleshow/83083764.cms

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    Yonason

    The potential problem with over vaccination with the experimental COVID vaccines. It isn’t “sterilizing.”
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PjQvnKClQ9Q

    Overuse, by treating young healthy individuals, could backfire big time.

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      Raving

      Yes, reading this blog changed my opinion to appreciate that ‘Vaccination not a magic cure’.

      Don’t imagine that it is necessary to be so harsh as invoking sterilization to purge the virus.

      Rather it is enough to accept that vaccination, by itself is unlikely to eliminate covid-19

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        Yonason

        “Sterilizing” in this case, as explained in the link, means the virus is neutralized, so it can no longer mutate or spread. These vaccines aren’t a dead end for the virus, just a bottleneck. If it mutates and spreads, it has the ability to become even more virulent, and even reinfect the vaccinated. His argument is that if young healthy people develop natural immunity, we can better protect everyone, including the vaccinated elderly.

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    Doc

    I have a question for the experts here.
    If this virus has been manipulated for human infectivity, is it expected to act as any other contagious virus and mutate so frequently to the extent that it seems to mutate to suit each national community in which it is spreading eg the original virus then the multiple variants that seem to be arising every other day?

    Would it be possible to identify further changes in the genome as being also due to manipulation?

    Because it seems China came out with its effective vaccine (?) so early, it would appear China has been very thorough in both the development of the virus and the control of it before it ‘escaped from the lab’. As the variants pop up, is there a means of identifying if the variants themselves are also directly ‘manufactured’ rather than being the result of natural selectivity?

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      Doc, making a new vax is easy. We could make 100 in a month. Literally if you killed Covid-19 particles an hour later you could call that “a vaccine”.

      It’s the testing for effectiveness and safety that is a long expensive risky process that cannot be sped up. It takes 6 weeks for humans to develop a mature Ab response and we won’t know if that is a useful response until they are exposed to covid, and we won’t know if their response is useful a year later until a year later, and we won’t know if it works against a new variant until it meets a new variant.

      And we won’t know if the vacc slightly but significantly increases long term side effects etc for years.

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