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Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

In Europe the second wave is setting new records for daily cases but not for deaths so far (thankfully). So the big question is whether this will stay the same or follow the case tally up.

It’s probably not an accident that infections are spreading fast in mid October. Not only was it late summer in Europe, but the virus has been spreading mostly through 15 to 24 year old healthy young people and when Vitamin D levels were high. But as the Northern Hemisphere tracks away from the Sun, vitamin D levels are falling, temperatures are dropping, and the sterilizing rays of ultra violet grow weak. And, as the days grow colder people gather indoors too. Viral doses are rising.

The enduring scandal of the epidemic is that there are so many ways to treat this virus but they’re not expensive enough for the TGA to recommend them. ;- )

Lots more cases but not many deaths

Exhibit One: The United Kingdom

Some people have used this graph to claim the virus poses no threat. But it isn’t that simple.

UK New cases and Worldometer Deaths graph.

UK New cases and Worldometer Deaths graph. (Click to enlarge)

Ten reasons death rates were lower in Europe’s second wave:

So much has changed. It will take whole PhDs to unpack the factors.

  1. Demographics: In the second wave young people are the most likely to be infected, not high risk older folk (so far).
  2. Vitamin D : reaches a peak each year in August and Sept.
  3. Masks: Many people were wearing masks — meaning a lower viral dose and they are more likely to get an asymptomatic infection.
  4. Doctors have better treatment plans.
  5. Hospitals are not overrun (yet).
  6. Temperatures were warmer: Viruses are unstable chemical codes.  As a rule, higher doses of virus will almost always survive longer in cooler air and on cooler surfaces.  As temperatures cool, we’d expect higher doses to be transmitted which means a more severe illness.
  7. Social distancing: Bigger distances and outdoor events mean lower viral doses. But as the seasons cool, we spend more time indoors, which means higher doses as they get closer together.
  8. UV light was stronger — A great outdoor sterilizer. UV also helps create Vitamin D. Obviously, it’s a summer time thing.
  9. More testing in the second wave. Germany is doing 3 times as many tests; France, seven times, and the UK is doing 15 times as many tests now as it was in early April. A lot of the first wave caseload was simply missed. There is roughly a three week lag from tests until mortality (and it can be up to 8 weeks). This wasn’t apparent in many countries in the first wave because they didn’t do enough testing to show the true extent of infections — they missed the entire first peak, only starting to record new daily cases numbers properly as the deaths also peaked.
  10. Mutations? Perhaps the virus has changed to be less deadly. This — our favourite option — the one we all want, may be true, but there is no genetic analysis that supports it yet so who knows?. If it is the case, we ought find a reliable genetic shift that correlates with lower viral loads and healthier patients. But natural selection favours a higher viral load and a more easily spread virus, and that’s what the few mutation studies seem to suggest.

There are new papers suggesting that the virus is mutating — and the most successful variants cause higher virals loads (as we’d expect, since they can outcompete the lower dose strains). Meanwhile many other analyses from Doctors in hospitals point in the opposite direction — suggesting that patients have lower viral loads as the pandemic progresses. Most likely masks and social distancing are reducing the viral load, even though mutations appear to increase it.

 A US study from the city of Detroit, presented at this week’s ESCMID Conference on Coronavirus Disease (ECCMID, online 23-25 September) shows that the initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal samples has been decreasing as the pandemic progressed. The authors also observed that the decline in viral load was associated with a decrease in death rate.

The authors conclude: : “During the April-June 2020 period of the COVID-19 pandemic, the initial SARS-CoV-2 load steadily declined among hospitalised patients with a corresponding decrease in the percent of deaths over time.

Also from that paper:

As patient viral loads declined over the course of the pandemic, the percentage of patients admitted to the ICU declined substantially from March (6.7%) to April (1.1%), and May (0.0%).

“As the epidemiological context changed from high to low transmission setting, people were presumably exposed to a lower viral load, which has been previously associated to less severe clinical manifestations,” the authors wrote.

Look closely at  the last two months

The surge in cases in the northern hemisphere is growing. As are the deaths.

These graphs are just from August 2 – October 19.

UK, confirmed cases, second wave. Coronavirus 2020. Graph.

UK, confirmed cases, second wave. OurWorldInData. Click to enlarge.

 The three week lag

There is loosely a three week delay between diagnosing new cases and deaths. Deaths are clearly starting to rise.

In the UK, there were around 6,000 new cases a day from Sept 27th. Last week there were about 140 deaths a day. Assuming the three week lag is accurate, that’s a rough fatality rate among the known cases of 2%. The real fatality rate is significantly lower than that, though how much? The UK is testing 50 people to find each new case.

 

Confirmed daily deaths, United Kingdom, Graph 2020. Second wave covid-19.

Confirmed daily deaths, United Kingdom, Graph OurWorldInData 2020.

 

Vitamin D levels are falling as winter approaches.

Vitamin D reduced the rate of ICU admission in one study from 50% to 2%.

It doesnt have to be this way.

Vitamin D engages with some 200 genes. It’s so important, it’s probably the reason Europeans have white skin (to make D in the higher latitudes while eating a grain diet low in vitamin D). Its levels also correlate with lower rates of cancer, diabetes, high blood pressureasthma, heart disease, dental caries, preeclampsia, autoimmune diseasedepressionanxiety, and sleep disorders. One recent long German study showed half the people who died of respiratory illnesses might not have died if they had enough Vitamin D. Not surprisingly, given all these benefits, it’s even associated with “all cause mortality” which almost no other supplement or vitamin definitively is.

It’s cheap, safe, natural, and virtually no government on Earth has a program to test and restore healthy levels in its own populace. Read about D3..

 

Seasonal Vitamin D levels month by month. Graphed.

Vitamin D levels fall as winter comes  | Guesseous et al  (Switzerland)


Pandemics often come in waves. Because of the nasty surprise in the first wave, many people change their behaviour, especially the most vulnerable. This is what happens in all pandemics. They wear masks and wash hands but lose enthusiasm after a while. They  self isolate, then eventually they return, and then the next wave returns too.

Check out these graphs of the UK:

Most of the first wave was hidden by inadequate testing. The initial test positivity was 40% but is now around 2% and rising. So the current wave of testing is catching many infections that were missed in the first wave.

The second graph below shows the age groups which test positive. In many countries in Europe the first wave was predominantly in older people who had more serious cases and get tested. The second wave surge started with the 15 – 29 age group and is gradually spreading to older age groups.

UK, Covid-19, Second wave, demographics, testing, Test rate, deaths

Top: Deaths and Cases (note the two different scales LHS). Second: The Young people lead the way… Third: Testing is waaay up. Forth: Test positivity is going up, which means, so is the virus.  |  Data from the EU CDC

 

Wave 1 had an invisible three week lag

In the first wave a lag between peak cases and peak deaths in some nations was sometimes as long as 3 weeks. But in nations without enough testing there was no apparent lag. This is probably because the peak new cases rose and fell before the testing stations got up to speed. For example: In the first wave in the UK the daily cases peaked on about April 10th which was also around the same time the deaths peaked. But in South Korea the daily cases peaked on March 2nd or so, but the daily deaths didn’t peak til March 24th or so. South Korea had an organised track trace and testing policy ready to go.

The good news

It’s not all bad that the first wave was earlier and higher that the tests showed. It effectively means more survivors in the first wave and thus a lower mortality rate. The not so good news is that if someone was to test positive — the crude morality rate is still 2% and that’s at a time when most of the people who are infected are quite young. So with uncounted asymptomatic cases that 2% might be more like half a percent. Though there might be another few percent over and above that, who didn’t die, but haven’t got well yet either — the long haulers.

The test rate per capita is now very high in the UK, though the positivity rate is around 2% and rising.  For comparison, Current test positivity in Australia is about 0.2% and during its darkest hours Victoria Australia was about 3% positivity.

Spread the word about Vitamin D, and Zinc. Write to politicians to why they will spend billions, lock people indoors, but not bother fixing known deficiencies with five cent vitamins?

The bad news

High risk people can be isolated from young party-goers for a while. It takes longer in the second or third waves for dumb viruses to catch up with older folks, but it does catch up. Sadly, and that’s probably what’s coming in Europe now, unless people get very serious about Vitamin D deficiency, and the other cheap treatments like Ivermectin, Bromhexine, HCQ and melatonin, and all the other antivirals….

We’re a lot better off than in Wave One. But things could still get pretty ugly especially in Winter.

When looking at cases versus deaths graphs. Don’t forget the lag.

REFERENCE

See posts on Lockdowns, Vitamin D, HCQ, Masks, Ivermectin, Bromhexine

EU CDC: https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/

Guesseous et al (2012) Vitamin D levels and associated factors: a population-based study in Switzerland, DOI: https://doi.org/10.4414/smw.2012.13719

Mask Use, compliance and rules: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_masks_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic

Scott Wesley Long et al (2020) Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Massive Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Major Metropolitan Area https://t.co/w6fzDDijPg read/write/request review https://t.co/RnurTL3DyM #COVID19

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Rating: 8.3/10 (57 votes cast)
Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different, 8.3 out of 10 based on 57 ratings

124 comments to Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    In the US our attack on COVID will change dramatically on NOV 4. In all but few places public health officials will be suddenly freed to seek out best practices from their peers in other states and cities, and share information unfiltered by the political process. While the public media and certain failed executive will not admit their failures; those with no political investment looking forward to helping people will mostly be able to tailor what they do to maximum population assistance and maximum economic recovery.

    The vitamin D miracle drug headlines will grace many papers and newscasts on that date regardless of the election outcome. Book it.

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      • #
        Peter C

        Why what professor?

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        • #

          Why will it change dramatically on that date? Why will people be suddenly free? Why will vitD grace newspaper headlines regardless of the election result?

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          • #

            Richard, on November 4, giant conglomerate pharmaceutical companies will have the same profit incentives as before. No one gets rich promoting vitamins. Vitamins just reduce potential target markets. Grants and prizes flow to those who find expensive patentable solutions which improve outcomes by 10%.

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      • #
        sophocles

        Here’s one especially for thee … GA.

        https://vitamindwiki.com/Hypothesis+–+Fatigue+the+day+after+sex+is+due+to+deficiency+of+Vitamin+D,+Magnesium,+and+Zinc

        … you might find an answer to “Why?” there …

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        • #

          I see no mention of anything about november 4

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          • #
            Hanrahan

            There is more politics than science in how the pandemic has been handled, here but especially in the US.

            After Nov 4 politics will no longer matter in the US. By then even Dan may be shamed into putting politics to one side.

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          • #
            sophocles

            That’s the magic of Harry Potter — November 4, 2001, I am told by neighbour’s children, was the first day of the film “Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone” — the 1st film adaptation of J. K. Rowling’s books.

            November 4th is the day before Guy Fawkes day. On November 4th, 1605, he was still positioning The Gunpowder Plot’s barrels of gunpowder in the cellar under the House of Lords. On the night of November 5th, he was discovered “skulking in the cellar by troops before he could light the fuse …”

            The rest is history. King James 1st saw nothing humorous in it at all, finding Fawkes guilty of treason and sentencing him to death by hanging, drawing and quartering. So November 4th 1605 was the last day Mr Fawkes had his life all together.

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  • #
    Zigmaster

    I may be wrong but I think there is one obvious reason , the fact that many of the Covid deaths represent premature deaths. Basically many elderly and co morbid deaths were brought forward , the most vulnerable , whose number was already up succumbed. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. The number of potential victims is less because the virus first time round killed the weakest. Once the struggling wilder beasts get picked off by the coronavirus killers the survivors are much cleverer and stronger the second time round. There will be those who the ravages of time and who have seen progression of their comorbities make them newly vulnerable so deaths are unlikely to disappear altogether ( without major improvements in management and treatment) so some deaths will still occur second time round , but at a much lower rate. Basically old and vulnerable people can’t die twice. I suspect a look at total death numbers will needed to be evaluated to really assess how deadly the virus was because so many people who died of Covid in fact died with Covid.
    I’m just curious, is this Premature death assumption which I think is a clear and obvious logical conclusion wrong?

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    • #
      roman

      I agree. In brief; you can only die once. Given the apparent fact that a person needs to already be very sick to die ‘from’ covid, and that those people mostly already have, the second wave will show reduced mortality. That and everyone’s broke, unemployed and stuck/ forced at home.

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      • #

        Every death in any year is a premature death by that definition.

        If the first wave was just knocking off the almost-dead, there should have been a rebound lower period of mortality following. But the only place I’m aware that happened was in Australia, and since our death toll was so low, the rebound — which far exceeds the spike — is likely due to lives saved by closed borders and restrictions that stopped influenza in it’s tracks.

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    • #
      Hanrahan

      Sounds like Norm’s buffalo theory in Cheers.

      40

  • #
    dkp

    — and the most successful variants cause higher virals loads (as we’d expect, since they can outcompete the lower dose strains).

    Is there any reason to think these strains engage in competition? I can’t think of any reason why a person can’t be infected with multiple strains and even unrelated viruses.

    31

    • #
      Hanrahan

      You’re beyond my pay grade but I’ve heard that mutations tend to weaken the virus.

      The logic is that the weaker strain, while still infecting people, makes fewer sick enough to be hospitalised so with more going to work asymptomatic the weaker virus spreads further. The reverse of Norm’s buffalo theory. :)

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      • #

        Eventually many viruses evolve to ensure maximum spread but a less nasty disease. Though on the way they may become more deadly. Mutations are random, and what matters is “fertility” and infectiousness not the exact point score against the victim.

        The most deadly diseases generally don’t spread as well as ones that infect but don’t incapacitate the victim.

        And in humans word spreads and people do their best to avoid catching the nastiest bugs, so a bug that generates news headlines is working against it’s own distribution.

        But yes, people can be infected with two strains at once. It does happen. The most important competition of all is just the daily case load. The virus that infects the most people wins.

        31

  • #
    graham dunton

    JAMES DELINGPOLE
    20 Oct 2020

    A Nobel Prize-winning chemist and Stanford professor has been cancelled for wrongthink on coronavirus.

    Professor Michael Levitt, who won the Nobel prize for Chemistry in 2013, was due to be the keynote speaker in December at a virtual conference on his areas of special expertise – computational biology and

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/21/new-dark-age-cometh-nobel-prize-biochemist-cancelled-for-covid-19-wrongthink/biodesign.

    But the First International Biodesign Research Conference withdrew his invitation – according to Levitt because they had received ‘too many calls’ from other speakers ‘threatening to quit’ because of his views on Chinese coronavirus. He has long maintained that the threat is overblown and that ‘we’re going to be fine.’

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Living proof educated people can become radicalized….

      Interestingly, they have found amongst radical groups – doctors , engineers etc. So educaton is no protection against going along with dumb ideas.

      Ive told people involved in sport that I officiate at that based on my assessment of risk, its highly likely I wont be wearing a mask, even though the world body who governs it “strongly recommends it”. Yeah well, thats nice….

      What is insidiuous is the whole “we are covid corect” nonsense they slap businesses with etc.

      You cant run a business or have sport etc etc go along with the stupid covid hysteria…..

      *sigh*

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      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Looking forward to hearing why, in Jo’s opinion, the lock-downs themselves have not killed more people than the lock-downs have saved. The second wave of lives destroyed by the lock-downs looks like a tsunami of biblical proportion to me, in my limited field of view..

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        • #

          You may be disappointed, but the data shows in Australia, lockdowns have saved many lives so far. Mortality is, net, much lower the normal. That may change in future if Victorians keep electing governments that are incompetent.

          Obviously, endless business failure and unemployment are likely to increase suicide, divorce and other bad things. Which is exactly why my solution was so much better than the high risk, unknown “herd immunity” potentially futile goal, which may or may not exist and causes the slow bleeding death of so many businesses as nations go through repeat rounds of restrictions just to stop hospitals from being swamped.

          Europe is doing round two of lockdowns, and if Victoria doesn’t finish this wave properly and get to zero, (or aim for the 1 -2 daily cases of NSW type management) then like Europe, they’ll go into the dreaded, repeat third wave of restrictions. Why give socialist governments any excuse to lockdown, to do mandatory vaccination?

          The best way to save the economy and lives was to get rid of the virus and get back to work. See Western Australia.

          Data shows I was right.

          The question that matters right now, is whether the NSW option of track and trace and putting up with the random closures, and ongoing limits is cheaper in the long term. We won’t know that til the end — whenever that is — and we know how long it will take to get a treatment. The failure of NSW to get to zero is the reason borders to NSW were not opened months ago.

          NSW and Victoria are the reason airlines are dying in Australia. The whole nation would already be open and borders down if both these states had better management.

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          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            Not at all. The virus was out and about last year, more than enough time to seed clusters throughout the world. At this point, as early as late last year your plan was already impossible to accomplish. Furthermore, all that has been achieved is a very slight broadening of the curve, thus prolonging the injury to peoples lives for very little gain. The Spanish Flu contains ample evidence lockdowns do not work. From my comment below.

            From: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862337/

            “While the implementation of treatment and prevention measures varied from camp to camp, medical officers generally tried “all preventive measures which seemed logical,” according to Braisted. Quarantines were almost impossible to maintain and had little effect. The Navy, rushing to transport troops across the Atlantic, imposed modified quarantines at many stations but “…invariably this measure failed to prevent the introduction of influenza.”5 (p. 2486) As the Army Medical Department explained, “…to be of avail in excluding influenza, quarantine must more nearly approach perfection than proved practicable in the large camps of the war.”

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            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              Data shows I was right.

              The data is not an absolute.

              The data is different everywhere, collected differently everywhere, and so on. In reality, the data from all over the world is akin to a Jackson Pollock painting.

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              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                The question that matters right now, is whether the NSW option of track and trace and putting up with the random closures, and ongoing limits is cheaper in the long term. We won’t know that til the end

                I am highly skeptical about the environment that your idea of track and trace now resides in, and subjectively the Jackson Pollock reminds me subjectively of how unrealistic it is. It becomes more complex and subjective by the day.

                From: https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/arts/design/02drip.html
                “No. 5, 1948,” Jackson Pollock painting

                00

              • #

                ES,. I tend to agree that NSW is playing with fire by trying to “live with the disease” while continually stomping out outbreaks. But they are doing better than I expected.

                I prefer wholehearted freedom though. With a few weeks lockdown, Sydney could have been totally free, flying to NZ and WA and TAs right now.

                They may get there accidentally .. we all hope.

                02

            • #

              Did you read the post? (or any of my posts?_)

              Case Fatality Rates have declined markedly since wave one. Exactly as I predicted, so even just delaying cases from the first wave to the second would save lives. Lockdowns work everywhere they’ve been used if people comply with them and if stupid governments don’t leave the borders open at the same time.

              See my answer to 2.111 something. First case that mattered in the US was Feb 1. If we’d closed borders, then tracked and traced, even within a week or two of this infection it would have changed the course of history.

              Rule to live by: All Chinese Bioweapons should be left in China.

              Are you serious about the Spanish Flu? Read The few places that escaped the Spanish Flu did it with quarantine..

              C’mon ES. Arguments about the Navy failure to monitor borders in 1918 or to stop the spread in war camps? So what?

              It’s like satellites, drones, ankle bracelets and mobile phones don’t exist.

              10

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                Not an argument at all. I merely reasoned that without high speed jets and Teslas to drive around in, the reference to the war shows that even without all this, the virus (spanish flu) somehow despite quarantine managed to move through the population with great homogeneity.

                Your use of Western Samoa and American Samoa reflect an age when travel was mind mindbogglingly small, compared to today, and people rarely traveled far from their home town thus if quarantine could ever be attained, it was going to be in these remote places.

                So in your post comparing Samoa et-al, i would compare this attemp to Cubism, or the cubist attempt at quarantine. We are now well past the age of quarantine cubism and propelled into the land beyond jacson Pollock, an age in which quarantine can be helpful only for a short time.

                Jo, take a look and behold at how neat the borders are in Cubist art, then compare that with Jackson Pollock style subjective quarantine comparison.

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                While the virus was allegedly in one place, it was Cubism, nice neat borders and so on. A month later, December 2019, it was a global Jackson Pollock.

                00

              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                [Removed by request of ES.]AD

                00

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              • #
                Environment Skeptic

                The era of the Spanish Flu was a golden age for quarantines. I have coined the term “Quarantine Cubism” for that period of the Spanish Flu. The geographical canvas was well defined, neat borders, nice.

                That era is now long gone due to high speed travel and the mind-boggling complexity of people movements today.
                Quarantines like those during that golden quarantine age are no longer possible. In my opinion. We are now in the quarantine age of Jackson Pollock style Abstract Quarantine Expressionism

                Even at the most fundamental level the virus has been everywhere as early as last year and any attempt at quarantine is an abstraction at best. In my artistic metaphorical opinion.

                00

    • #
    • #
      wal1957

      How dare he rebel against ‘group think’?
      I wonder what the world would be like if all inventors/thinkers of the past were silenced because their thinking did not conform?

      30

  • #
    Bob Fernley-Jones

    Re:

    [D3+zinc is] cheap, safe, natural, and virtually no government on Earth has a program to test and restore healthy levels in its own populace… …Spread the word about Vitamin D, and Zinc. Write to politicians to why they will spend billions, lock people indoors, but not bother fixing known deficiencies with five cent vitamins?

    It astonishes me that there are no such recommendations from health officers and the like, including the “top US expert” Fauci for instance.

    According to various papers it seems to me that the elderly should also all be taking vitamin B12 supplements since it is established that B12 levels can diminish to dangerously low levels with age, largely because of increasing inability to absorb natural sources in foods. This is associated not only with various well known Covid co-morbidity risks but also with some of the stranger symptoms of Covid including neurological, e.g. “brain fog”

    Here is a quick summary paper from the US NHS Vitamin B12 and older adults that focuses on the neurological aspects.

    Other papers go into the wider aspects and are a much heavier going.

    Artificial B12 in the form of intra-muscular injections are arguably the most effective for absorption, but oral tablets are said to work because the B12 is in a different form to the less digestible protein-bound natural sources.

    Both medications are quite cheap.

    150

    • #
      Chris

      Norway fortifies its dairy and flour based products ( bread etc) with vitamin D. It is normal practice for Norwegians to have Vitamin D levels tested during the winter months and if low to take a supplement . I’m told by Norwegian relatives that lethargy in Winter is a vitamin D deficiency.

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      • #
        Lucky

        Chris- thanks for that.
        Is it possible to get stats on places where vit D is added as described in Norway?
        As has recently come out, vit D is very important and differences of data could be explained by differences in vit D levels in the population.

        30

    • #
      sophocles

      Back in February this year (2020) the medRxiv (medical pre-print server) was full of papers about Covid, many of which included Vitamin D use, results and recommendations … so the medical profession is not necessarily silent, just silenced.

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    • #
      RickWill

      There was a researcher in charge of one of the Australian HCQ trials who stated that it became politicised when Trump heralded it and that reduced interest in the trial results. He actually stated that he wished it had not become political because he felt HCQ had merit and the clinical staff at hospitals have been taking HCQ because it offers some Covid risk reduction.

      20

      • #
        sophocles

        The staff could probably be better off monitoring and maintaining their vitamin D3 levels.
        As seen in Jo’s published references (and article sources) D3 Deficiency (D3D) is the big way in for Covid. (the 4 lane highway).

        Human lungs make their own D3 from circulating calcifidiol so if your D3 is deficient, the lungs can’t covid-proof themselves, nor quickly and effectively repair the damage from an infection.

        (125 + nmol/L = ideal levels, < 75nmol/L = Insufficient, < 50 nmol/l = Deficient, < 25nmol/L = Seriously Deficient- as in Covid/Influenza/etc bait or low-hanging fruit. )

        10

  • #
    reformed warmist of logan

    Good morning Jo,
    Great update. You never fail to impress!
    I think its safe to say that on many topics you are months, if not years, ahead of the herd! This is especially the case when one considers the un-naturally left media(s) of the 21st century!
    Can someone please explain why no-one in the media has yet got the comprehension of a grade 4 student!!
    Please consider this sobering fact.
    The global ratio of Corona-deaths 2020 to births 2019; is still at the low rate of 1:80!
    What’s more in Australia; deaths to births/immigration 2019 is around 1:400!
    Clearly the over-reaction quotient of modern society is way too high, and needs to be dialled-back at least a couple of notches.
    Sooner of later the majority will wake up!! … Clearly I live in hope!!
    Increasingly warm regards, reformed warmist of Logan.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Sky News has a PhD when compared to the rest of MSM, which belong in kindergarten. So, not all is covered up and lost. That’s assuming one considers Sky News as MSM; some would say it’s not.

      50

  • #
    dinn, rob

    Voulez-vous Paris to Moscow or Moscow to Paris express train?
    France hit 40k infections for 24 hours. Russia has a pretty steep death rate going. What do you think, a good match?
    Many European services have resumed and there are some excellent deals on national rail passes. Our expert gives the lowdown on summer train travel https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jul/03/europe-by-rail-train-summer-2020-service-updates-great-deals

    20

  • #
    GrahamP

    Prior to dosing up on zinc supplements men should read this:

    “However, a recent study involving 46 000 health professionals (the Health Professionals Follow-up Study)15 found that men who consumed more than 100 mg/d of supplemental zinc had a higher relative risk (2.9-fold) of advanced prostate cancer. This increase in risk was amplified with the long-term intake of zinc supplements for more than 10 years. Supplemental zinc provided 32% of the total zinc intake and was the major source. The reasons behind the increased risk with zinc intake found in this study are unclear.”

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/416806#:~:text=However%2C%20a%20recent%20study%20involving,fold)%20of%20advanced%20prostate%20cancer.

    20

    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      I have benign prostatitis (non-cancerous enlargement of the prostate, ‘BPH’) and found that taking daily zinc (since it was recommended here and elsewhere as a covid precaution) has mitigated my symptoms a little.

      When I experienced this effect, a few days after starting zinc, I did a little research and was pleased to find that this is a known consequence of taking a zinc supplement. However, the same articles also mentioned the apparent increase in prostate cancer you point to.

      Reading further, it was suggested (not tested or proven) that this increase in advanced cancer cases was in fact due to late diagnosis among those taking zinc, because the zinc ‘hid’ the early symptoms. Seems plausible to me. Because I have BPH however, I have regular check-ups anyway, so hopefully any cancer would be picked up early enough to treat.

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    • #
      sophocles

      And this:

      https://vitamindwiki.com/Solar+UVB+reduces+Cancer+Risk+–+Grant%2C+Jan+2013

      It’s a reason I prefer my vit-d from the sun.

      20

  • #
    ivan

    The one thing that I can’t get my head round is why are inaccurate test results called ‘cases’? To me a case is one where the person has actual proven symptoms.

    Since they are doing more testing they are going to get many more false positives which they call ‘cases’ which they are not so it appears that the panic is rising up again which leaves the question of why.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    This is a sobering read – the other side of the fence the powers that be seem to willingly ignore, like holding off rescuing people after hurricane Katrina.

    I’m now of the opinion that this virus appears to be utilized as effectively a broader, silent war against humanity generally.

    You only need to look closer to home, due south…..

    https://www.sott.net/article/443219-UKs-lethal-lockdown-toll-laid-bare

    “Doctors and politicians called on the Government to ensure all health services are protected if the spread of Covid-19 continues. The audit of 132 documents shows:

    “* Delays in treatment are set to cause a 20 per cent rise in deaths among newly diagnosed cancer patients in England – 6,270 excess deaths this year;
    “* Treatment for strokes fell by 45 per cent during lockdown and there were more than 2,000 excess deaths in from heart disease;
    “* More than 50,000 operations for children were cancelled;
    “* Organ transplants fell by two thirds, with the number of those who died on the transplant waiting list almost doubling;
    “* Total waiting lists for routine orthopaedic and eye operations are at record levels;
    “* Calls to child abuse helplines rocketed;
    “* As rates of depression and anxiety doubled, thousands of recovering alcoholics have relapsed.

    ” At least 25,000 more people have died at home during the pandemic in England and Wales because they were unable to – or chose not to – go to hospital, a surge of 43.8 per cent on normal levels.

    ” And 85,400 people died in private homes rather than in hospitals or care homes between March 20, when lockdown started, and September 11, an Office for National Statistics report revealed, the equivalent of around 100 extra deaths a day.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Doesn’t explain why the West went bat crazy over the virus, and still is in most areas. My guess is most people have devolved into m00r0ns and believe whatever is told to them by much of the MSM and most politicians.

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      • #
        OriginalSteve

        The MSM basically carries out a form or neural programming called brainwashing whereby people are traumatized, and while traumatized the message is inserted and then retained. Sam eprocess was used with the Bali bomb. Its called Trauma Based Mind Control, which is why people seem to be “morons”…they are just progammed, Pavlovs dogs style.

        Interestingly, you can see how deep the programming goes, because the MSM has been doing the equivelent of kidney punches to peoples minds for a while by constant hysteria and near total media saturation of the whole big joke, and their mainds are now so “tender” they dont want to talk about it so an alternative opinion cant be presented.

        Evil and clever in equal portions I think.

        Even smart people like engineers were moaning about people “not following the rules which is why we have outbreaks” but they themselves hadnt broken out of the mental prison the MSM have created, to actually ask the critical question of whether covid is actually dangerous.

        When people argue the finer points of what material thier mental prison cell bars are made of, you might as well walk away and leave them to their madness…..

        Which then brings us to the next point – getting the brainwashed to “police” the free thinkers, aka group peer pressure. Expect to be labelled “conspiracy nut” for just exhibiting rational thought, or refusing to wear the symbol of oppression, the hated face mask.

        I have a sporting event I’m supposed to be officiating at. The people are usually quite down to earth, I’m hoping I dont get too much stick for not being an unthinking Elite plaything….I will ahve to expect it I guess. The Elite have got all thsi well worked out. Its the peer stuff ( or being dragged out of your car and arrested, if in Victoriastan ) thats designed to keep “dissenters” in line.

        Interesting times….

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        • #
          PeterS

          Also, the more often a lie is told the more people will believe it. Imagine say if the MSM harped on the myth that the earth is flat. Eventually we will find most of the population believing in it. The Flat Earth Society for example would be bursting with new members.

          60

      • #
        sophocles

        Does:

        ” … it’s a new virus and there is no cure for it!”

        ring any bells?

        00

    • #
      Chris

      And globally flu numbers are barely registered…….hmmm.

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      • #
        el gordo

        Flu deaths are way down in Oz.

        ‘The latest national statistics, obtained by the ABC, reveal from January to June 2020, there were just 36 deaths from the flu. That compares to 430 deaths in the same period for 2019.’ ABC

        After the Northern Hemisphere winter we should get a better picture.

        41

  • #
    RossP

    Why Vit D supplements have not been mandated for all people in aged care (staff and patients), at least, is mystery to me. The issue of Vit D deficiency came up very early (my wife and I took notice and started a daily supplement) It is very cheap and easily available. If they can mandate masks and etc. I do not see why this should not have a difficult thing to do.

    50

    • #
      graham dunton

      From memory,Vit D-is an important component in supporting calcium uptake. The critical requirement women require more, than men,but also important to both sexes

      50

      • #
        sophocles

        Bone (and tooth enamel) support requires only about 1000 to 2000 IU of D3 daily. That level is insufficient to lift circulation serum levels to any decent level of immunological protection. (Depending on age, consider 4000 to 10000 IU as a suitable prophylactic) The lungs make their own Vit D from the serum calcifidial reservoir and need quite high levels to repair viral damage. (See the vitamin D wiki:
        https://vitamindwiki.com for papers and more information)

        If you choose to use Vit D3 for protection, take a blood test about every 6 months to monitor your serum levels. (see my comment at 5.3.1 for levels. The Scientific Method recommends measuring in place of estimating — it’s more accurate.)

        Low levels are more dangerous to your health than higher levels but you don’t need to go overboard, either. The `ideal’ level is 120nmol/L – 200nmol/L.

        NZ uses nmol/L so I’ve quoted using those units. If your health system uses ng/ml, then divide nmol/L by 2.49 (2.5 is accurate enough)

        Good Health to you all and kick that Covid virus off the field …

        20

  • #
    czechlist

    IMO the testing has too many variables to be reliable. We know many mistakes are made in a normal medical environment – over 400k hospital deaths / yr from “preventable hospital mistakes” in the US alone. I have little confidence in the testing from sample collection to analysis- and then there’s the documentation. Another concern involves government monetary compensation. More positive tests but fewer deaths raises questions – especially when governments continue to maintain the virus is so deadly.

    60

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Great summary Jo, good reading for anyone who wants to understand what’s going on with the virus.
    GeoffW

    22

  • #
    el gordo

    Even a sniff sends a shudder through Covid Free area, sewerage testing is proving popular.

    ‘New South Wales Health said on Wednesday night it was “urgently undertaking investigations” to trace the virus in the region.

    “The sample comprises wastewater from over the past weekend, and could indicate current or a previous infection in someone who attended or worked at the Bathurst 1000 motor race, a visitor to Bathurst, or even a local resident,” NSW Health said.

    Newdaily

    20

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day e g,
      The Mayor of Bathurst was interviewed on the Channel 7 local news at 6 yesterday and said that they’d tested the outflow from Mt Panorama – negative – and from the general outflow – positive – a distinction not mentioned elsewhere.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      30

      • #
        el gordo

        Ahh … yes, camping on the Mount was forbidden so they stayed in town. The locals get nervous and retreat to lockdown mentality, hospitality suffers as bookings evaporate.

        30

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    It’s all pretty irrelevant, however you want to present it, it simply isn’t a serious enough virus to warrant the reaction.

    The political response will kill more than the virus.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/21/how-to-show-americans-lockdowns-are-killing-more-people-than-the-virus/

    The self inflicted economic damage in the UK is insane, it would be insane even if 500k were going to die.

    And people just want to get on with their lives and take/manage their own risk. You said before what sort of world do we want to live in where we let the old die, well over and over the response in the UK from the old people is that they do not want to live their last days under draconian controls, in enforced loneliness, isolation and misery.

    https://youtu.be/BSsaKNLU244

    The average age of death is 82.4 with multiple health issues. This is not saving lives. It is giving a few miserable extra days of worthless life, if anything corona-virus measures are actively cruel. The people dying do not have the average life expectancy of an 82 year old, they are dying already.

    Where are the second wave deaths in Sweden? Already a colder climate than the UK and no masks!

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

    Where are the second wave deaths in London, the increase is far from alarming, despite large parts being ‘tier 2′?

    https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus–covid-19–cases
    https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus–covid-19–deaths

    My potted theory; the virus is only taking significant numbers of deaths in areas where it didn’t previously manage to run free, the measures have merely deferred the inevitable, possibly even prolonged the epidemic and prevented a natural die down to unimportant background levels.

    As I pointed out before, it is very difficult to see what is going on if you look at a whole country, the virus is at different stages and apparently behaving differently in different areas. There simply isn’t a significant issue in my county currently and the second wave appears to have peaked with no new measures. Slides 2/15/16 are probably the most relevant.

    http://www2.westsussex.gov.uk/public_health/west_sussex_covid_weekly_data.pdf

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    • #
      SMS

      In reference to your comment that the second wave is really just the virus hitting a different and previously unaffected area; this video is very supportive of your belief.

      https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

      Many of the so called second waves could just be the virus entering new areas that had previously successfully isolated themselves from the virus but now susceptible because they have not developed herd immunity.

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      • #

        Swap “area” for “person”. That’s what a second wave is. Relabelling a person as an area doesn’t change that.

        Except of course, in influenza we are pretty sure no one catches the exact same flu twice. With covid, second waves can be second infections. Not too many known for sure yet, but it’s early days for reinfections.

        11

  • #
    David Maddison

    Jo, the smiley after your comment

    The enduring scandal of the epidemic is that there are so many ways to treat this virus but they’re not expensive enough for the TGA to recommend them. ;- )

    was not necessary because the statement was not sarcastic but true. The TGA and similar equivalent foreign bodies such as the FDA simply refuse to consider or allow the use of simple, cheap, effective, already-approved (for other purposes) medication to treat C-19. Frankly, in Australia, I’m surprised they haven’t (yet) banned ivermectin for C-19 treatment as they did for HCQ. I’m also waiting for them to ban or restrict non-prescription zinc ionophores such as quercetin.

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    • #

      what’s in it for the wage slaves in the TGA?

      16

      • #
        David Maddison

        Because they have to justify their positions by extending the problem for as long as possible plus generating as much extra work as possible with approval processes for expensive and useless treatments such as Remdesivir.

        Also notice how the Left now love “Big Pharma” and the Right support existing effective and inexpensive treatments?

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    • #
      Annie

      Don’t give them ideas David!

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  • #
    Salome

    I still don’t know why wearing filthy rags strapped to our faces as we walk the dogs and take our constitutionals on wide and sparsely populated streets helps us.

    90

    • #
      Annie

      They don’t need to be filthy, though undoubtedly some people do wear such things, usually ill-fitting and endlessly pushed up or worn slung beneath the nose. Wear clean or new ones, put on with clean hands and then leave them alone.

      20

    • #
      sophocles

      I dislike them: they’re all too small to be comfortable and the wrong shape for my face

      I can’t be bothered learning how to use a sewing machine now …

      If I contract an RTI and can’t stay home until it’s all gone, I’ll consider one.

      While they aren’t mandatory here, (NZ) I’ll go without.

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    • #

      Salome, you are allowed to wash masks. If you wear a good one you might stop yourself getting a serious infection and get an asymptomatic one instead.

      10

  • #
    • #
      dinn, rob

      not really greed, just slush fun
      &defined as something with numbers and presidents’ pics usually on it
      for political purposes, see my lawyer

      10

  • #
    PeterS

    No mention about the one factor that might in fact be a major player in all this; immunity. If there is none then what’s the point of developing a vaccine (apart from the usual conspiracy theories)? A vaccine stimulates your immune system to produce antibodies, exactly like it would if you were exposed to the disease. That is a fact.

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    • #
      sophocles

      No mention about immunity?

      What do you think Vitamin D is?

      It’s your Immunity Hormone!

      It drives your immune system …

      (If you haven’t had a vitamin D test, then it’s way past time you got one …)

      No mention about immunity … hmph! Go and apologize to Jo

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Are natural deaths being falsely attributed to C-19? Two statistics I’ve seen are for Australia and Ireland whereby the average age of death seems not to be statistically different for either cause.

    And we know the Australian Government Deep State is full of liars and they would have an interest in pretending there has been a dramatic reduction in mean lifespan due to COVID so mean age of death with supposed COVID may even be more than claimed.

    Even according to Australian Government statistics the mean age of death for Australians is 78 for males and 84 for females. https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death

    For supposed COVID deaths the mean age of death is 83 years, not separated by gender. You would think that because males naturally live less long than females plus males are more susceptible to C-19 than females, then the mean age for C-19 death would be lower again. https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-10-august-2020

    There seems to be no significant difference for mean age of death with or without COVID.

    For Ireland, the median age of death, all genders is 82 but the median age of death from supposed COVID is 84. (I don’t have time to find a scholarly or government source for this but this is widely reported).

    60

  • #
    TIP

    “CASEDEMIC”

    Not unprecedented – Casedemic was experienced with swine flu

    This casedemic is going to piggyback with the oncoming seasonal flu period.

    With the VERY VERY LOOSE definition of “Covid Death” brace yourselves for the hyperbole.

    80

    • #
      David Maddison

      The more they look for, the more positive test results (not clinical “cases”) they’ll find.

      71

  • #
    David Maddison

    PAY NOW OR PAY LATER

    Australia, and especially Victoriastan with the world’s strictest and unacceptably dictatorial lockdown regime have left the population extremely vulnerable due to the failure to allow people (except for the vulnerable) to be exposed to the virus.

    The strategy and the science, not the politics suggest:

    1) Protect the vulnerable such as the elderly.

    2) All people to take vitamin D and zinc.

    3) Make HCQ, ivermectin and other proven effective drugs available for prophylaxis or treatment. Those with diagnosed Trump Derangement Syndrome should not use them, they should wait for a vaccine instead.

    4) We remain vulnerable until either the population attains herd immunity, which won’t be allowed to happen in Australia, or a vaccine is developed. The control freaks want to keep us controlled until a vaccine is developed but it is not certain a vaccine will be developed soon, and perhaps not at all. And they know it.

    5) COVID restrictions are more about CONTROL of the masses by the Elites, not about a treatable or manageable relatively mild (but potentially nasty) genetically modified experimental Chinese bioweapon.

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    • #

      Thank you David. I have been saying this since the start of the situation and been called all sorts of things even on this blog, for it.

      It is only good sense to allow the vast majority who will be unaffected by the virus to get it and become immune. Without herd immunity we will have wave after wave after wave, which will just feed the hysteria of the Left and the unscientific.

      As you say here in AU this is not allowed by the clowns in charge but they are happy to run up astronomical debts and see huge numbers unemployed by lockdowns or by their industries being destroyed by Scomo and the illogical travel bans. I can say that at some stage we will have to go for herd immunity – but only after Scomo has virtually bankrupted the country with his strategy which is rooted in the first wildly wrong estimates of deaths…

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  • #
    Ruairi

    Statistics for deaths are worldwide,
    Should this current year’s death rates decide,
    Though it won’t become clear,
    Until sometime next year,
    As to how many extra have died.

    100

  • #
    TdeF

    It was always a question, whether airborne infections by virus were diminished by hot weather. And is becoming obvious, the answer is yes. This we already knew from the annual H1N1 Spanish flu season, after the new mutations in Europe.

    However aircraft still fly into major populations centres, putting everyone at risk. Why not have everyone transit in hot areas like Christmas island, Port Headland, Broome, Darwin, Alice Springs, Cairns and smaller towns like Longreach? Most of the world’s airfleet are grounded, even hundreds in Alice Springs. Put them to work.

    I have never understood why with most hotels and resorts in Victoria closed, Daniel Andrews parked incoming viral candidates in the middle of the city in the middle of winter. Why? From time immemorial, the essential ingredient of all quarantine was geographic isolation. Islands, small isolated hotels or resorts , sheer distance from vulnerable communities. So why downtown?

    Before 24 hour jet travel to the UK, the boats were in quarantine at Point Ormond in Melbourne and later at Point Lonsdale. Animals were quarantined on Coode island and Werribee. Still 14 days quarantine is not the 40 days of old. So quarantine is not as onerous as it used to be and 14 days is a fast trip to the other side of the world.

    Even today, why not have the mandatory stays in resorts around the country which are empty and where infections are unlikely and casual viral escapes impossible. There is time to train local people, give hospitality locals jobs, boost struggling economies and a guaranteed way to stop infections reaching major populations.

    Instead what Daniel Andrews did was release a major pandemic, locking down a city of 5.5 Million people confined to their homes 23 hours a day for three months. Really, which epidemiologist or member of the public or Health department didn’t expect that? This while the country centres and isolated resorts with very few people are going broke for lack of tourists and cash.

    For example the RACV resorts around country Victoria for example are isolated, private, first class accommodation with golf courses and great views and large ground and quality service and completely shut. And an isolated resort is so much easier to police for everyone plus people are free to walk around with much risk to anyone. A plane load of people are no more at risk to each other than on the aircraft.

    We have some of the most isolated communities in the world with jet access. So why Bourke Street? What idi*t decides to put quarantine centres downtown in a huge busy city and kill the entire city? Who quarantines horses next to the Melbourne Cup at Flemington? And what chief medical adviser would suggest for a second that a downtown shopping area is the best place to contain a deadly virus?

    Nothing Andrews has done makes any sense in terms of controlling the virus and preventing the introduction of infection. But enriching his private friends without oversight, tendering, contracts, training, equipment or logic makes sense. Where is the inquiry into the allocation of the first $30Million contract over a weekend in 6 hours?

    Unfortunately it is all still true. We should have new returnees parked initially as far from big populations centres as possible. Not in Bourke street or Lonsdale or LaTrobe. Or is keeping the cash in Victoria and particularly downtown Melbourne far more important than 800 lives or risking another wave of hundreds of deaths? And the last thing you want is the (Federal) army getting Victorian cash and the credit.

    Now we all know who to blame for 800+ deaths and financial disaster. It’s all to obvious to everyone in the whole of Australia. And still we are lectured daily by someone who clearly could not care less and is now flying police drones over private backyards during the racing carnival and football final. Why? The people have never been the problem and the policing in Victoria is reaching appalling levels. Even for funerals.

    But he can order a racecourse open for his friends on a whim. Or give a cheque for $30Million to a company which was not even registered for such a job over a weekend and without ministerial or departmental oversight. And still his inquiry does not know who made decision and tried to get away with saying no one made the decision? Everyone in Australia knows except the judge. She can kiss that job as a Federal Magistrate goodbye.

    And the virus should never have been put in the dead centre of the city. Who made that decision? No one? His unqualified friends with no record at all in the business? And when did a 19 year old Indian girl hired over the internet become a qualified and capable ‘security guard’ . Where is the prosecution for criminal fraud, theft and manslaughter? Instead we real the Andrews is a ‘skilful’ politicans. Read brazen li*r.

    Please, if we are going to fly people into Australia at all, relay them through hot, closer centres in the North that have the facilities, need the money and from where spread to major population centres is extremely unlikely. The climate alone will protect us all. Use it.

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    • #
      TdeF

      “Australia has an average population density of 3.3 people per square kilometre.

      Inner-city Melbourne has the highest population density of any region at 20,700 people per square kilometre.”

      And it passes more than 50,000 people per square km in the city centre including vast numbers of daily commuters. 83% of Victorians live and work in Melbourne.

      So where do you put people with a deadly highly infectious virus? Smack in the main Melbourne shopping centre, surrounded by 5 million people.

      What Chief Medical Officer or Health Department or Quarantine Contractor thought this was a good idea? And still thinks so.

      And who would agree it was good practice? Not a doctor in the country.

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      • #
        TdeF

        And how is it that other Premiers are threatened with their jobs though minor indiscretions while Andrews is the most hated man in Victorian history parades on television with his best worried look as if he cares. Like the people at Nuremberg.

        And the question at the inquiry is not who lied, but whether anyone told the truth, including the Chief Medical Officer who denied knowledge of the decision to use ‘security guards’ or even recently attend a meeting about the incoming people from NZ and hid the relevant and damning emails from the inquiry. Is there any witness to this Yes Minister inquiry who told the truth? Apparently not.

        Can we please have our state back from these crooks? And could the police stop acting as Andrew’s SS?

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  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    Vitamin D is “ cheap, safe, natural, and virtually no government on Earth has a program to test and restore healthy levels in its own populace.”
    In the USA, the claim is that studies haven’t shown improved health outcomes – thus, no national professional organization recommends population screening for vitamin D deficiency. [Might have changed since I read this.]

    Simply amazing.

    I have never been tested for Vitamin D nor Zinc and when I asked the clinic I was told my insurance would not cover. Will have the “annual” health visit in a few weeks, and will get these done with the regular blood investigation.

    I don’t get Vitamin D via the rays of the Sun. I am almost always covered, and use a “bucket” or “fisher’s” hat. Gloves, also.
    Since March I’ve supplemented with 2,400 units of D3, RDA of Zinc and eat beef and a few other things (mixed nuts, cheese) with Zinc.

    50

    • #
      Hanrahan

      You’ve got to ask for it. But if you do get the test be sure to understand the units quoted and trust that you can double what the doc says is “adequate”. My lady has Az and while I’m not saying high dosing D3 actually helps [it might and it's cheap as chips] years of high doses have done no harm.

      But I have read that Scandinavia recognises the sun vitamin deficiency and they have a policy of fortifying food, the same as some foods here are fortified with thiamin.

      Could this muddy the waters on whether Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to rona virus works or if their health initiative works?

      Buying D3 online: 360 tabs of 5,000 iu is available at about A$17 free post if part of a bigger order. You may have to search. Two a week would meet “adequate” levels but because my Lady does not go out in the sun I dose her 5,000 iu daily. My daughter thinks 10,000/wk helps her migraine.

      It’s summer, go out and get your D3 free with no risk of overdose but remember that Vit D is synthesised in the outer layers of the skin and takes hours to be absorbed. so DON’T run inside, have a shower with plenty of soap. Take it easy, have a gin [relaxant] with tonic [quinine] and a BBQ steak [Zn]. THEN have a shower.

      Only half in jest. :)

      10

    • #
      RickWill

      Vitamin D deficiency is so common in Australia that it is included in any regular check up.

      I used to take a gout medication and before the prescription was renewed ever few years, my GP required a blood test. That test has a whole lot of factors including vitamin D. I was prescribed Vitamin D before I retired but getting out of long sleeves, offices and aeroplanes once retired enabled me to get a higher dose of sunshine. So better exercise overcame gout and exercising in sun overcame Vitamin D deficiency.

      10

    • #
      William Astley

      John,

      2400 IU of Vit D per day is not insufficient. 4000 UI/day is the lowest supplement that reduces cancer. For men the optimum level is greater than 5000 UI/day. Tests have been done giving Vit. D supplements of 2000 UI/day and that dosage did not significant reduce cancer deaths. 4000 UI/day produced significant reduction in cancer activity in prostate cancer and shrinkage of tumors in three months, at which time the prostate glands were removed and examined.

      The target is a Vit D activated, blood serum level, that is greater than 60 ng/ml. (A daily supplement of 4000 UI/day will get the average US man to around 40 ng/ml). That level reduced the incidence of breast cancer in the women by 80% with the addition of daily calcium supplements.

      The Vit D research showed that we are so Vit D deficient that it dangerous to take calcium supplements for roughly 40% of the population who are severely Vit D deficient. The body requires a Vit D blood serum level greater than 32 ng/ml to modulate daily calcium level.

      The group of scientists that have done the Vit D breast cancer and prostate cancer research; have also done studies on dosage amounts to raise the Vit D active blood serum level; and have done tests to confirm there are no adverse for Vit D daily supplements of less than 10,000 or less per day.

      This same group of researchers have recommended that the US population take Vit D supplements of 5000 UI/day.

      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22508710/

      Vitamin D3 supplementation at 4000 international units per day for one year results in a decrease of positive cores at repeat biopsy in subjects with low-risk prostate cancer under active surveillance

      Vit D greater than 40 ng/ml 65% Lower Cancer Risk

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4822815/pdf/pone.0152441.pdf

      Finally, Missing link between vitamin D prostate cancer

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141022164052.htm

      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27049526/

      Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations ≥40 ng/ml Are Associated with >65% Lower Cancer Risk: Pooled Analysis of Randomized Trial and Prospective Cohort Study

      It helps to know what Vit D does in our body. Every one of cells has a copy of our DNA in it. Vit D enables our cells to access the DNA to get the chemical blue prints…

      To build tiny modules that sit on our cells and produce bioactive chemicals which solve problems for cells and organs such as protecting against a virus attack, stopping cancer, preventing type 1 and 2 diabetes, building more muscle cells, … Stopping depression, and so on.

      So people that are Vit D deficient have less of these specialized bioactive chemical producing cells. This explains why Vit D deficient people Vit D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml are 19 times more likely to die from covid than Vit D normal people who have a Vit D blood stream level that is greater than 30 ng/ml.

      In the case of cancer, the prostate cancer research has determined that prostate cancer was stopped with a Vit D daily dosage of 4000 UI/day; and it was determined which gene was activated by the higher levels of Vit. D in the prostate cells to stop the prostate cancer.

      The gene that was activated is known to stop internal inflammation in the body. It is believed many cancers cause inflammation and then use the inflammation to trick the body to enable the cancer to grow.

      10

  • #
    A1971

    Jo, I’m pulling a journalistic lazy card here …

    Do you know whether or not each country’s Covid-19 mortality reporting parameters are in one central location (WHO, NIH, CDC, etc.) so a person could do an apples-to-apples comparison between each of them?

    20

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      We hear about case numbers but nothing about how many cases per 100, 1000, 10,000 tests. Without such data, even a non expert like myself is able to figure out that case numbers are as meaningless as a car without wheels and so on.

      I will check back later to see if anyone has actually contributed to your salient point.

      Thank you A1971.

      20

      • #

        ‘For the most part cases per capita don’t tell us a lot that’s very useful. Except if someone wants to declare the pandemic is nothing important in its early stages.

        Stats per test or positivity is very useful though. That tells us whether there is enough testing and whether the trend is up or not.

        00

  • #
    DonS

    Hi Jo

    I think your 10 points are a reasonable explanation for the mystery but what worries me is that we are not even into the northern winter and case numbers are going up exponentially, even in Russia where the Putin vaccine is supposed to be protecting everyone. Will this be a re-run of the 2nd year of the Spanish flu? Let’s hope the death rate does not follow the infection rates this time.

    You mentioned that the virus is mutating, hopefully into a less dangerous form. One of the lines of evidence that this was made in a lab is that it will be more resistant to mutation than a naturally occurring virus. Do we know yet if the current strain infecting Europe is different to the original and is this virus following the usual pattern of mutation for a corona virus?

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    UK-Weather Lass

    It would be wrong to claim SARS-CoV-2 has an agenda or strategy but it will continue to infect hosts as often and as efficiently as it can. In the UK we are still, seemingly, in the business of limiting the ability of the virus to overrun the capacity of our hospital services, a situation brought about by a criminal failure to invest in effective public and national health services at local and national levels. We once had systems that dealt with and managed local and national infectious outbreaks to reduce threats and risks to minimum possible levels which has the effect of also minimising direct and indirect deaths. We once had hospitals that were designed to isolate infected people. We once had staff who had the expertise to trace infectious spread both backwards and potentially forwards. We seem to have deluded ourselves into believing such things were no longer required and an unnecessary expense in contemporary society. How wrong could we be?

    It is hard for me to believe that the UK’s lockdown, masks and social distancing policies have had any significant beneficial effect on the handling of this outbreak since infections appear to have followed the known science about epidemics – it has been and continues to be a typical influenza outbreak but with the added impetus, via creation of new hotspots, for infection by demanding big changes in the behaviours of people and altering the manner in which herd immunity may be reached. Coronaviruses cause deaths and always have done but this latest virus outbreak has, in my opinion, been assisted via the panic measures introduced by politicians who have been way too complacent about health matters for a very long time and they now have blood and death on their hands too. Will they accept responsibility for their massive failings? Pigs might fly.

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    RickWill

    The actual death rate has not changed much. There are a few factors that are making a difference:
    1. Better quarantining of the aged.
    2. More testing to verify cases means there are more with it being diagnosed. During the first wave, the majority of the cases were not diagnosed.
    3. Most of the data in Europe now shows the acceleration of the second wave. Deaths lag cases by about 25 days.

    USA had 45k cases 25 days ago and has a current death rate of 762/day; that is 1.6% of cases 25 days previous. Cases are not accelerating in the USA like Europe.

    Poster child Sweden – current death rate 3/day. Go back 25 days and cases were 383/day. So death rate now only 0.7%. You would expect them to be getting better because they had good practice and a period of low cases. They have abandoned the idea of crowds at football.

    EU currently 860deaths/day. Cases 25 days ago were 40k so death rate around 2.1%.

    Meanwhile in Australia, large crowds will attend the AFL and ARL grand finals but not in Victoria.

    Not much has changed over the year other than much more intensive testing. Somewhere between 1 and 2% of the population who contract Covid will die at least until there is an effective treatment that does not have Trump recommending it.

    The press is so one sided in the presidential race that one of the greatest stories of political favours in history is being brushed under the carpet.

    My son has ended his stint at the Northern. No Covid cases there when he finished up there. Death toll under his care peaked at 10 per day. None of his patients who died were under 70. Those under 70 who died were inevitably in intensive care and he was not working in intensive care. Those under his care who died were deemed too frail for intensive care.

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      Environment Skeptic

      So i guess all we now is standardised testing. For example, case numbers should be in per thousand or per hundred of those tested. Like kilometers per hour or miles per hour…cases per the number of tests. Am i being a bit pedantic?

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        Environment Skeptic

        Rick, everyone knows the tabloid press is the tabloid press. Since the tabloid press is for entertainment purposes, why expect more of it?

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    tom0mason

    This write up from The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine says it all about the UK’s PCR testing — https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/

    and this video show the misapplication/misdiagnosis of COVID PCR tests that is currently going on https://zb10-7gsop1v78.bitchute.com/2wmG089mVeGv/5dhWjbyxHsXW.mp4 [WARNING: Contains strong language!]

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    Clyde Spencer

    “… and the most successful variants cause higher virals loads (as we’d expect, since they can outcompete the lower dose strains).”

    No! The critical criteria is that a virus that is too virulent, and kills the host before there is an opportunity to pass on to others, will die out because it can’t propagate efficiently. An ideal strategy (for any pathogen) is to have a relatively long period of infectiousness before symptoms present and the host is incapacitated and unable to spread the pathogen.

    Syphilis is an example of a pathogen that was initially very virulent when it first showed up in Europe. Both the malaise, unsightly sores, and shortened host life-span were counter to efficient spreading. Syphilis quickly evolved into an organism that can appear to go away, while it is actually dormant in the body and can re-surface years later without warning. It appears the H. simplex has adopted a similar strategy, even though it is rarely life threatening.

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    mwhite

    “Medical Journals Refuse To Publish Landmark Danish Mask Study”

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/10/23/latest-news-171/#medical-journals-refuse-to-publish-landmark-danish-mask-study

    “Three leading medical journals have refused to publish the results of the first major scientific investigation into the effects of wearing masks on the spread of COVID-19. The authors of the long-awaited “gold-standard” randomised controlled trial have admitted their findings are “controversial” and are keeping them secret until their paper has been peer-reviewed and published.”

    Scroll down and

    “Vaccines Unlikely to Prevent Infection”

    “Instead trial “success” is defined as an amelioration of COVID-19 symptoms in 50-60% of volunteers, who are healthy adults likely to be at risk only from a mild or asymptomatic infection and thus not even a population group facing significant mortality risk from COVID-19.8 These dud Covid vaccines aspire to be buckshot not silver bullets: if they are the answer, what was the question?”

    Interesting reading

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    Environment Skeptic

    Some invigoratingly good information for us all.

    The U.S. Military and the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919
    Carol R. Byerly, PhDa

    From: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862337/

    “While the implementation of treatment and prevention measures varied from camp to camp, medical officers generally tried “all preventive measures which seemed logical,” according to Braisted. Quarantines were almost impossible to maintain and had little effect. The Navy, rushing to transport troops across the Atlantic, imposed modified quarantines at many stations but “…invariably this measure failed to prevent the introduction of influenza.”5 (p. 2486) As the Army Medical Department explained, “…to be of avail in excluding influenza, quarantine must more nearly approach perfection than proved practicable in the large camps of the war.”2 (p. 116) Other prevention measures included daily inspections and temperature-taking, patient isolation, face masks and gowns for attendants, good ventilation, screening between beds, prohibition of indoor gatherings, nose and throat sprays for the healthy, and experimental vaccines. In assessing these measures, however, Braisted concluded that “each particular preventive measure failed in some instances to accomplish recognizable results.”5 (p. 2483) The Army Medical Department similarly admitted that “the best result to be expected from any or all of these measures is a slowing of the progress of an epidemic rather than any considerable diminution in the number of cases.”2 (p. 123-4)”

    “To control influenza and pneumonia, the hospital provided patients with 100 square feet of floor space, separated beds by sheets, and furnished face masks to everyone in the camp. As pneumonia spread, medical officers also sprayed the mouths and throats of 800 healthy men daily with the solution of dichloramine-T as a preventive measure, but when they compared their influenza rates with 800 untreated men, they were disappointed to find that “…over a period of twenty days the incidence in the two groups was the same.”2 (p. 121)

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      Environment Skeptic

      The entire article is most enlightening.

      The take home is for me is, a virus is not like a bacteria and cannot be stopped. Once the cat is out of the bag, it will not go back in kindly. Something i often point out without tiring.
      Eradication is incredibly naive.

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        Kalm Keith

        That’s why I laugh every time I hear someone accuse someone else of “going for herd immunity” when there is no choice in the matter.

        Eventually everyone will “say hello to the Virus”.

        KK

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          For the 400th time. No evidence yet that Herd immunity exists for a low K cluster spreading disease or for any coronavirus. Good luck with the speculative hypothesis that has no evidence.

          Those who read my blog posts know that we are swimming in anti-virals both man-made and artificial. We defeated most bacteria in WWII. We could defeat many viruses in 2020 but only if the solution generates more profits than letting viruses spread. It’s a new era in science, but an old era in corruption.

          The 1918 flu shows that there were three major waves before herd immunity exists to a virus known to cause a lifelong protective antibody response.

          Presumably many people declared it was over and finished at the end of each wave, which is why everyone relaxed, and then the virus surged right back. History repeats.

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          sophocles

          I’ll be staying with vitamin D 3. I like being immune to colds, influenzas, covids, skin cancers, prostate cancers, BPE, colon cancers, lupus, chrohn’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, asthma, the hay fevers I’ve skirmished with for a few years, asthmas, MRSA (golden staph as seen in a hospital near you), clostridium difficile, pseudomonas aeruginosa, just to name a few of the superbugs.

          Another popular (with me) benefit is the huge reduction in the floaters my eyes were afflicted with. They haven’t gone away but they are greatly, as in hugely, reduced. Being male, I’m not so worried about breast cancer anyway, but it can go on the list … :-D

          Yep: I’ll stay with vitamin d 3. It’s good excellent value for money.
          Therefore:
          I will be putting off my intimate acquaintance with Covid-19 for as long as I can keep it bay.

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    Peter C

    Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different

    I listened to a Delingpod yesterday with Dr Mike Yeadon.

    He takes a different view that there is No Second Wave in England, nor in any other country in Europe. Covid is effectively over.
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/

    Another 2 weeks will tell if he is right.

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      Lucky

      Dr Mike Yeadon is the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd.

      He describes the PCR test as-
      A hopelessly-performing diagnostic test has been, and continues to be used, not for diagnosis of disease but, it seems, solely to create fear.

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    CHRIS

    And it will always be different. COVID-19 will have been mutating and evolving ever since it came into existence, just like most viruses in human (and pre-human) history. It all depends on the human immune system…can it cope naturally, or not? In my opinion, woop-de do; so what? This is just one little old virus in the scheme of things. If it is more or less potent than previous COVID viruses, then again… SO WHAT? Human existence is just a dot in terms of the Earth’s existence, just like climate. The human immune system will eventually overcome COVID-19, and make it non-lethal, just as it did the common cold. It will take time…maybe thousands of years. If a vaccine can be produced that is effective, then… yippee!!

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    DOC

    The argument about masks is vexed. By definition any scientific testing has to be conducted under rigidly controlled conditions to get a diagnostic result. Let’s not argue the effectiveness as may be shown by such research. It is what it is or maybe if you can work out such a methodology.

    My problem with masks is how they are used and handled in practice, as seen all day, everyday on our TV’s. We all see it. The mask is on. The mask drops below the nose for comfort or to speak.
    The mask comes off by simply grabbing the bit over the nose, use both hands all over the outside to get it off and dump it in a pocket. Then replace it, being very responsible people by doing all those moves in reverse after grabbing it off our in pocket hanky. Probably did the same thing the day before, so COVID can even be in the pockets when the mask is first deposited and then put on.

    It doesn’t take a microbiologist to see my problem. If the person is infected then the inside of the mask is contaminated. If one walks through a cloud of COVID-19 suspended virus, the outside is contaminated. When the mask is so handled as we see on TV, previously cleaned hands become viral carriers released by touch or contaminate a clean mask.

    From TV, one can easily make a case for increased or decreased viral transmission. Never consider a person wearing a mask as uncontaminating. I have great difficulty in believing that masks, as utilised in reality are any protection at all, or can even become a means of more efficient transmission. The same applies in operating theatres and ICU’s which is why their masks have to be changed frequently and carefully and with clean hands. That’s why PPE becomes so limiting. We require huge numbers of it if it is to be used effectively. Maybe that’s why so many first responders caught the virus early on, and in large doses and died.

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    Agnostic

    One thing that is forgotten in these discussions is that the so-called “case rate” is actually not CONFIRMED CASES at all, but simply detections.

    You can read more here from the Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine Oxford University: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/pcr-positives-what-do-they-mean/

    The RT-PCR test only detects remnants of the virus, after it has been destroyed, specifically 2 genes peculiar to CV19 on the RNA strand. The test is very sensitive, and the RNA remnants can remain on a person for weeks even months.

    That means it’s very likely that the test is picking up people who have come in contact with the virus, but are no longer infected or infectious. The only way to tell if the person actually has Covid is to culture the virus, which is a lot more time-consuming and costly. Other respiratory illnesses are still going around. As of 9 October, according to the ONS, deaths from influenza account are for more than twice as many as CV19.

    The implication is that the virus is more infectious and less virulent than was first supposed. It’s likely that a lot more people were infected in the first wave and the relaxation of restrictions afterwards than we first thought, and what we are mostly picking up are those people who did not know they had it. The Antibody test is only good for about 90 days after the infection according to this report on retained immunity:

    https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/52/eabe0367?fbclid=IwAR22K2PMBCtyZ-VHnFfH6IJ5eculXvkndhkA16ddcl1MMfg5iJ-c_pxmvW4

    The antibodies recede, but they are “remembered” by the T-cells. There is also the possibility that there is some cross-reactivity with T-cells meaning the population in general is more resistant to this coronavirus than we might have first thought. This has implications for herd immunity.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

    Nic Lewis has been discussing this at Judith Curry’s blog.

    What is clear is the vulnerability of older people and those with comorbidities to this virus, which was the basis fo the Barrington Declaration, which is NOT unscientific as some have (very irresponsibly) said. It is a reasonable proposal to increase herd immunity levels so that it protects people from serious illness or death, and does as little harm to the economy and peoples livelihoods as possible. All herd immunity means is that there is sufficient resistance within enough of the population that the virus cannot spread. It does not matter how that is achieved, whether via an active vaccine or by allowing it to run its course through a resistant portion of the population. You can make arguments against it, but it is perfectly reasonable and based on logic and evidence.

    In the case of successfully shielded communities such as Perth and New Zealand, it seems to me to make sense to keep that strategy going at this late stage. A vaccine is not too far away, and simply allowing the virus to do whatever would require shielding vulnerable people which would be the more disruptive and difficult solution, not to mention the risks. These communities have not had the smaller doses from social distancing and mask-wearing that might be contributing to resistance communities where the virus has not been excluded altogether, and they are really disruptive, I can tell you (I am based in London).

    Finally, IMO this all could have been avoided. Convalescent serum has been around for over 100 years…140 years actually. It’s been used in other epidemics, and its pathogen agnostic – tis even used to treat spider and snake bites….to this day. Why it was not a front line strategy I simply cannot understand. It does not require clinical trials in the way new drugs do – we don’t have clinic trials for blood transfusions and serum transfusions are LESS risky, albeit you have to screen for serum bourn pathogens so you don’t give people disease they don’t have.

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    JCalvertN(UK)

    Why are affluent countries being hit harder by Covid-19 than 3rd-world countries (where the mortality is actually less than that of normal ‘flu in most cases)?

    As far as I can tell, the key difference between Covid-19 and normal ‘flu is quite simply the absence of a vaccine.

    In 3rd-world countries where ‘flu vaccination is rare, when vulnerable elderly people get ‘flu they succumb.
    To put it more bluntly, in 3rd-world countries vulnerable elderly people are naturally culled by the annual ‘flu epidemic.
    Along comes a version of ‘flu called “Covid-19″ and the number who die is no different to any other ‘flu year.

    In affluent countries on the other hand, vulnerable elderly people are “artificially” kept alive through the widespread use of ‘flu vaccines. And so the number of these un-culled vulnerable people grows. All is fine, until along comes a version of ‘flu (e.g. “Covid-19″) for which there is no vaccine…

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    Harry K

    More research indicating and accidental leak of the virus the Wuhan Institute of Virology

    https://project-evidence.github.io/

    The authors write a pretty compelling argument.

    Incredible how even discussing the possibility of a lab leak is censored.

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