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The story of the 25 year old British man who had Coronavirus last November in Wuhan

 Sobering

This 25 year old British man caught the virus in Wuhan on November 25. He must have been one of the earliest cases, and it was only recognised belatedly that he had Coronavirus. Twice, he thought he was well, only to relapse. But he does recover. I suspect this is the rarer “severe” type case in an otherwise healthy young man. Theoretically 80% of people get the easier five day version and recover. Notably, for him it’s 24 days before he feels well properly. Can this disease affect pets, which is very ususual? If so, can it affect other mammals, like livestock?

What it’s REALLY like to catch coronavirus: First British victim, 25, describes how ‘worst disease he ever had’ left him sweating, shivering, and struggling to breathe as his eyes burned and bones ached

Day 5: I’m over my cold. It really wasn’t anything.

Day 7: I spoke too soon. I feel dreadful. This is no longer just a cold. I ache all over, my head is thumping, my eyes are burning, my throat is constricted. The cold has travelled down to my chest and I have a hacking cough.

Day 11: Suddenly, I’m feeling better, physically at least. The flu has lifted. But the poor kitten has died. I don’t know whether it had what I’ve got, or whether cats can even get human flu. I feel miserable.

Day 12: I’ve had a relapse. Just as I thought the flu was getting better, it has come back with a vengeance. My breathing is laboured. Just getting up and going to the bathroom leaves me panting and exhausted. I’m sweating, burning up, dizzy and shivering. The television is on but I can’t make sense of it. This is a nightmare.

By the afternoon, I feel like I am suffocating. I have never been this ill in my life. I can’t take more than sips of air and, when I breathe out, my lungs sound like a paper bag being crumpled up. This isn’t right. I need to see a doctor. But if I call the emergency services, I’ll have to pay for the ambulance call-out myself. That’s going to cost a fortune. I’m ill, but I don’t think I’m dying — am I?

Day 22: I was hoping to be back at work today but no such luck. The pneumonia has gone — but now I ache as if I’ve been run over by a steamroller. My sinuses are agony, and my eardrums feel ready to pop.

Day 24: Hallelujah! I think I’m better. Who knew flu could be as horrible as that, though?

The death of the kitten is unsettling. It is perhaps a coincidence but there are tales on Twitter that people in China are clearly afraid pets can get it too. They put masks on their pets, and some do unspeakable awful things, killing pets, perhaps from fear. Once this virus is in the animal population, it’s here for good. Let’s hope it’s not an animal disease too. Most influenzas are “host specific” but some can cross the barrier with pets.

If you get any kind of cold, influenza, disease, just keep your distance from family of all kinds. Wash hands. Don’t touch faces. Avoid crowds. The usual.

h/t Willie

 

 

8.2 out of 10 based on 52 ratings

69 comments to The story of the 25 year old British man who had Coronavirus last November in Wuhan

  • #
    tonyb

    It would be interesting to know how he caught it bearing in mind it appears to be one of the first documented cases. Eating suspect food from the wild animals market seems unlikely. Strolling through the area and catching it from someone sneezing? Who knows, but it would be useful to be able to identify the causes

    122

  • #
    Rolf

    This is hearsay. I heard first case at Wuhan was November 1st. If that was number zero, this man could be among the second or third round infected.

    If this is true.

    About the cat is interesting. My dog can catch a cold. Which also is a corona virus. So why not ?

    90

  • #
    Rolf

    Another interesting thing here. Twice ? That thinking about immunity ? Again, if true, according to stats, this will be worse than ‘ordinary’ flu.

    60

    • #

      I really don’t think the reports of “catching it again immediately” are right. Likely to be “not fully recovered”. It would be amazing to have no immunity to something that was just beaten. I think this is more likely part of the severe form itself — perhaps it leaves some exposed to secondary infections. Or it really does have a relapsing pattern. There are a few that do.

      The Chinese don’t define someone as recovered until they have been 10 days without a fever I think.

      110

      • #
        Rolf

        Our immunity with a common cold don’t last very long. I would guess we will have the same kind of immunity against this as it’s the same type. For sure we don’t know right now. But better to be careful kind of !

        20

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        The immune system isn’t 100% perfect. Most childhood diseases are a once-off affair, but you can catch them twice. I had the German Measles twice about 4 years apart.

        00

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    Jo I went & read the whole story in the Daily Mail.
    It is even worse in full graphic detail than you wrote.
    And this was a young 25 year old !

    Awful !

    50

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Tracking virus variants in America

    https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington

    https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426

    https://twitter.com/ExcludedMuddle/status/1233975231116562434?s=20
    “The death suggests it’s been there 3-6 weeks and should be assumed just about endemic by now. Any mitigation measures we would take with 100K cases and rising should be taken right now. The rest of this analysis is more or less academic…we declined the option to close borders.”

    60

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Those tweet state :
      1 Now endemic in the USA !
      2 Mitigation measures urgently needed
      3 : Including halting all travel within the USA as well as International travel !

      40

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Before and after satellite photos from Wuhan and other countries showing the impact on people travelling .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/coronavirus-from-space-before-and-after/12032418

    60

  • #
    Eddie

    And Dr. John reckons the West, who are only just begining to wake up to it, doesn’t have the discipline to contain it like the S. Koreans and the Chinese are claiming to.

    https://youtu.be/XDSq3cgWaAg

    30

    • #

      I reckon we do. We just need to wake up and get organised. That’s why I keep posting. We need to treat this seriously — get ahead of the virus instead of waiting to be shocked by the three week delay.

      We’ll get there. Let’s do it sooner rather than later. Less people affected.

      180

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Jo the last day or so I have been posting & commenting on Adelaide Hills Alerts Facebook group. The extent of the ignorant dismissive abusive responses amazes me. The Daily Mail report was dismissed by one woman as ” trash sensationalism. I wouldn’t even call it news.
        Not a reliable source at all, which is exactly what your post is about.”
        And the bulk of the comments are dismissive.

        I’m afraid that no one will pay any attention until it is too late with ‘community transmission’ already happening…

        We are already is ‘soft lockdown’ minimising the occasions we go out and being careful not to shake hands or hug people – even friends. And that is what Chiefio has done as well. Have we reached the point of “Saving one self” and letting the uninformed rabble suffer what’s coming ?

        90

        • #
          Bulldust

          Let me guess, most of the comments say this is just like the flu, simply eat well, wash your hands, she’ll be right? I am getting a fair bit of that on Cruise Critic where I go by BulldustHHH.

          I am still on track to fly to the USA for a cruise, but the cruise line just said people can cancel up to 48 hours before the cruises and get future cruise credit. There are the flights as well, of course. So our trip is somewhat up in the air, so to speak.

          80

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Or down the loo to coin a phrase !
            But better to stay at home than run the risk of being in an enforced quarantine & unable to get off the boat at any ports.

            90

          • #
            tonyb

            bulldust

            I have been amazed that people have been booking and getting on cruses the last month or so despite the example of the diamond princess in japan and the latest one off America.

            Surely the chances of there being an outbreak amongst so many travellers from so many different places in such a confined space, with the likelihood of being confined to the boat, is simply not worth the risk? You will surely be worrying about possible scenarios every day of your trip?

            I remain more sceptical than many on this site but I wouldn’t dream of catching this boat.

            I suspect that many Brits are-rightly or wrong-rather sceptical as it was only 20 years ago we had the huge panic about BSE which was expected to kill 400,000 brits. To date 177 have died of the disease.

            That is not to say that we don’t take sensible precautions and have got in provisions and avoid large crowds.

            80

          • #
            David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

            G’day Bulldust,
            Not good news, but may help your decision.

            http://www.smh.com.au/world/21-passengers-test-positive-for-virus-on-grand-princess-20200306-p547sk.html?btis

            ” An epidemiologist who studies the spread of virus particles said the recirculated air from a cruise ship’s ventilation system, plus the close quarters and communal settings, make passengers vulnerable to infectious diseases. ”

            Personally, I wouldn’t risk the possibility of being locked into a small cabin for 14 days, followed by another 14 days on shore.
            Best wishes,
            Dave B

            30

        • #

          I suspect some people just can’t deal with news like this. They would be shocked by what we saw on twitter 6 weeks ago. Stories like this one above are useful for some.

          Sorry about your Cruise Bulldust. That credit is looking good… no wonder people on that discussion board are not keen to hear your message!

          100

        • #
          Annie

          Thanks for an easier to read comment Bill. Annie 🙂

          40

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    WHO sitrep 6/3/2020

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

    “Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different? The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.

    “Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms –is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

    “The reproductive number –the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual –is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

    “Children are important drivers of influenza virus transmission in the community. For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa.

    “While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

    “Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.

    “Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

    80

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Original Steve…. seems to me to indicate that it is vital to be as healthy as possible, and especially not to have stress as stress has the incredibly adverse effect of making one more vulnerable. I further am quite certain vastly more are dying from stress and malnutrition during the effects of the corona economic fallout, loss of jobs and so on.

      Will governing power possessors bring positive uplifting advice about preparing by making sure everyone gets the best preventative medical health advice and functional medicine advice and make it widespread?

      Lets wait and see.

      70

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Good resource/hub for Italian CV19 data

    https://www.thelocal.it/tag/coronavirus

    Italian Health Ministry link ( translated to English )

    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.salute.gov.it%2Fportale%2Fnuovocoronavirus%2FdettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp%3Flingua%3Ditaliano%26id%3D5351%26area%3DnuovoCoronavirus%26menu%3Dvuoto

    Explaining high death rates in Italy

    https://www.thelocal.it/20200305/analysis-why-have-there-been-so-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-italy

    “What do we know about those who have died?

    “Fatalities have now been reported in the Italian regions of Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Marche, Lazio, and Puglia.

    “The vast majority of cases (over 1,800) as well as deaths (79) have been in Lombardy. Most of the deceased were male, and all were Italian citizens, government data shows.

    “Many were in their 80s or 90s, and were already suffering from serious health problems, including cancer, when the coronavirus infection was detected.

    “READ ALSO: The everyday precautions to take against coronavirus if you’re in Italy

    Hint – no kissing…..

    “But while Italian health officials have been quick to point out that the majority of people who’ve died so far have been elderly (and all have been over the age of 60) with pre-existing health conditions, that fact does very little to reassure people – particularly in a country with a population as elderly as Italy’s.

    “EU statistics show Italy has the oldest population in Europe by almost any count.

    “It has the lowest percentage of young people, and a higher percentage of those aged over 65 (22.6 percent as of 2018) than any of the other member EU states.

    “Its median age is now 45.9 years compared to the EU’s median of 42.8, higher than any other European country except Germany.

    “The country’s particularly elderly population was cited as a factor in the government’s decision on Wednesday to close down all schools in the country until at least March 15.

    50

  • #
    el gordo

    Reinfections maybe unique to Corona, a worrying trend.

    ‘A 36-year-old man has died in Wuhan from respiratory failure days after being discharged from hospital. Latest data from the mainland shows most new infections continue to occur at epidemic’s epicentre.’

    South China Morning Post

    40

  • #
    el gordo

    Comedy Classic

    ‘A shopper has filmed a physical altercation between three women at a Woolworths store in Chullora, in an apparent feud over toilet paper.’ SMH

    20

  • #
    Tim Spence

    This is a useful site for daily numbers, updated at 12:00 midnight GMT every day.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    There seems to be a lot of conflicting evidence or reporting, not just of the numbers, also the symptoms.

    It’s also concerning that China and USA have a 5% mortality rate (based on total infected to deceased). While other countries have 2-3% and the majority <1%

    40

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    More news has emerged on the doctor who kept on working in his Toorak practice after becoming infected in the USA.
    It is Dr Chris Higgins the father of popular singer Missy Higgins

    The Victorian state government are ropable that a doctor kept working and seeing patients when sick !
    https://www.news.com.au/national/missy-higgins-dad-dr-chris-higgins-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/news-story/5d0fb76fb40aa3eeda49d2c9da2d0b08

    50

    • #

      I would not want to be in his shoes. He must feel pretty awful. Both from discovering he has Coronavirus and that he may have infected so many. Clearly he had no idea.

      Our media (thanks also to our PM and Chief Medical Officer, have been telling people “don’t change anything” when clearly they shouldn’t go about their business as normal.

      Doc probably watched the ABC news and thought he understood the situation.

      130

      • #
        GD

        Doc probably watched the ABC news and thought he understood the situation

        From what I’ve read, this doctor had a mild cold for a few days before returning to work.

        Since Tuesday, I have had a minor cold (controlled so far by massive Vit C & D). My first thought when this persisted over three days was to hope this wasn’t the corona-virus.

        Surely this thought should have occurred to Dr Higgins. He says he took a swab test some days later. Lucky for him, he can do that. I can’t. Why didn’t he take a swab test immediately? I would have if I had access to such a test.

        My point is, why did he assume he was OK when it was easy for him to take a test?

        110

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Jo, I just heard of ABC Radio 891 news that
        Dr Chris Higgins is demanding an apology from the Victorian minister for Health
        For her remarks about his behaviour in working when he was sick !
        Especially immediately after travelling overseas !

        Oh dearie me ! he has not yet learned the lesson !
        A case for de-registration by the Australian Medical Practioners Board ?

        81

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Seems that American medicos have a problem with self-awareness.

          Do you remember Dr Jayant Patel, An American surgeon who didn’t know how to wash his hands?

          Was put in prison in Queensland for 7 years for manslaughter and GBH.

          It was overthrown on appeal some years later.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayant_Patel

          20

  • #
    Bulldust

    On the lighter side, Aussies have become a living meme chasing after toilet paper. Woolies in the Perth CBD had empty shelves in the toilet paper, tissues, paper towel section at 8am this morning. We have some enterprising folks on Gumtree right now:

    https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/docklands/miscellaneous-goods/premium-toilet-paper-tube/1243134096

    and

    https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/greystanes/miscellaneous-goods/single-piece-of-toilet-paper/1243126739

    Toilet paper is the new Bitcoin and I’m sitting on a fortune. Of course, Seinfeld did it first:

    https://www.973fm.com.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2020/03/Elaine-toilet-paper.jpg?crop=107px,0px,407px,489px&resize=280,336&quality=75

    50

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Make sure to save paper receipts when they are offered at a shopping checkout. These are a valuable additional resource now.

      60

      • #
        Dennis

        Yesterday I was tidying up a rental property and opened the laundry cupboard and found two unopened packs of toilet paper and a couple of loose rolls. Two weeks ago I decided not to buy new stock for my home use and a week ago when I was shopping the shelves of toilet paper at the supermarket were empty. I had a small number in stock so I was not desperate but now I have no need to buy more.

        70

  • #
    Ljh

    Good news for anyone wanting access to research papers normally behind a paywall:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/freereadorg/status/1236104420217286658
    Applause!

    50

  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Now that is uplifting news. What an excellent result. We need more of this.
    Thanks Ljh

    50

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    The outline of symptoms experienced/described by that young bloke is frightening.

    If it is real and if it is commonplace it doesn’t sound promising.

    KK

    40

  • #
    Choroin

    And all this because the Chinese are infatuated with eating/administering every body part of a multitude of different wild animal species, in all different states of ‘food’/’medical’ preparation.

    I think shaming a country into changing its ways is quite called for here.

    The link between China and almost all serious infectious disease outbreaks in the last 2000 years can’t be some accident of history.

    1) High population
    2) Infatuation with eating and ‘medically’ administering any species that moves, greatly increasing the qty of possible animal-to-human contact vectors that could create what amounts to a new bio-weapon.

    It’s like a perfect storm for fubar to happen.

    Thanks China. Top work.

    90

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      All societies/cultures eat their brand of what we would consider to be strange things… have you ever tasted a juicy roast bat…or do you prefer it sliced raw in a sushi style? lol 🙂 ….You forgot the love of being surveilled and being subject to social credit systems and living the life of an algorithm. Many are already saying how successful it has been, in many countries, and in adulation.

      From: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/surprise-china-using-covid-19-strengthen-its-mass-surveillance-citizens
      “Surprise! China Is Using Covid-19 To Strengthen Its Mass Surveillance Of Citizens”

      41

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      LoL…here in Au you could say we have a penchant for junk food…a perfect storm for fubar to happen.

      Lets look in our own backyards 🙂

      40

    • #
      MudCrab

      First up, China is not your friend. China is at best your neighbour. I distrust China as a geo-political entity to the extent that last year I stopped buying computer games based on Chinese history/legends (ie Romance of the Three Kingdoms) when the voices not being blocked by my tin-foil hat were telling me that these games were part of a Chinese ‘long game’ intended to normalise the long standing superiority of Chinese culture over those smelly Westerners.

      China is not your friend. I will not willingly defend them as a nation.

      However I feel there is something that needs to be said about what we shall loosely call ‘the act of eating everything’.

      If you back track the history of cultures who eat non conventional foods – say bugs – you are often going to find a culture that at once stage were forced to go through a massive period of famine. Remember when we are in times of plenty life is too short to eat bad food and we will leave uneaten food on our plates. In times of starvation we not only eat everything on our plates, but we actively consider the nutrition value of the plate itself.

      The harsh need for survival can be great in helping to expand the personal list of what you are willing to put into your mouth.

      20

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        MudCrab:

        Not so much China as the current “dynasty”. True there are carryovers from the attitudes of the Manchurians (and probably those before). But China was rather isolated from western influence, as was Japan, and the shock of the new resulted in different reactions.
        Unfortunately the Japanese copied the (Nationlistic) Fascists and the Chinese the prevailing Communist ideas. The Cambodians later got stuck with the ideas of the Greens and the loss of one third of their population caused rejection.
        Time will sort out the problems. The Chinese have a history of “conforming” to the controlling regime and switching rather quickly to another. The most successful dynasties left the people to themselves, but the current lot are too scared to do anything other than try overwhelming control. At some time, probably sooner than they think, they will be overthrown.

        20

  • #
    • #
      Richardw

      The writer says…

      “That being the case, it’s safe to assume that when it’s all said and done and this strain of the Coronavirus has run its course – as it will with a far smaller infection and fatality rate than the yearly flu”

      He bases that conclusion on the SARS epidemic having been stopped. Another example of how people have become so comfortable with their modern day living that they take it as the default setting as if an alternative is not possible. If something is going wrong, then someone, somewhere, somehow, will simply fix it up.

      50

  • #
    Bill In Oz

    That is a USA perspective.
    Here in Australia most of the main stream media have done the opposite
    Many aspects of the Corona 19 Virus story have not been covered.
    Much of the panic stuff has been on social media not MSM

    40

  • #
    Springdam

    Bill.
    Going back a while but thanks for the heads up on the virus case in Mt. Barker. Have a son working in the town in the retail industry and heard about this news first hand on this site. Cheers.

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      You’re welcome Springdam !
      I wonder if they did any testing of the staff or Flight Center customers ?

      30

  • #
    Sunni Bakchat

    In summary;
    – symptoms sound very similar to prior seasons (bad) influenza. Potentially without lung infection.
    – infected potentially received large viral load. Uncertain though.
    – alcohol and return to work will have suppressed immune system allowing virus to get early traction
    – virus traction very likely prolonged illness.

    51

    • #
      Binny Pegler

      Having read the article, he felt sick enough to see a doctor, but not so sick he felt the need to take the medicine prescribed!!!?

      10

      • #

        Yes. I noticed that too. If his pneumonia was viral it probably wouldn’t have helped. Though sometimes even if Docs can’t find a bacteria to identify it can still help. Detection isn’t always 100% and sometimes pnumonia may be both viral and bacterial.

        10

  • #

    Could be he had a normal seasonal cold before getting the new virus.
    Anyway, if the Chinese figures are correct it cannot be so easy to catch it because so many in China seem not to have been infected.
    If the Chinese figures are incorrect then the mortality rate is much lower than it appears because so many more must have had it without requiring testing or treatment.
    It must be one or the other.

    50

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Stephen, You assume that the Chinese figures are correct at least partially. That is naive.
      I think that it’s best to treat the Chinese ‘figures’ as
      State sponsored propaganda.

      In order to know the situation in China we need to examine proxy evidence :
      The number of cremations that have happened.
      The extent of the severe government response
      The stories being smuggled out past censorship from the locked down cities and provinces..

      I think South Korea & Italy provide far more accurate figures of rates of infection, speed of spread, severity and mortality.

      60

      • #
        Binny Pegler

        Also Hospitals are ‘western’ medicine and cost money. I’m thinking for a lot of people they would be the last port of call.
        Add a zero to the ‘official’ figures and you have 800,000 infections (almost 8% of the city) and 30,000 deaths.
        Which is more in line with what would cause 5,000,000 people (about 40% of the population) to cut and run.

        20

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Binny P:

          The exodus was for the Chinese New Year with family reunions etc.
          Occurred because the Chinese Govt. didn’t see the danger? Possibly because those in Peking weren’t getting accurate information, possibly because they didn’t want to show weakness when negotiating with Trump, and possibly because the first wave of infections was from a less severe clone? Their reaction became extreme when they realised they had a monster loose and the virus was more dangerous than first thought..

          10

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Stephen, I don’t know what the truth is about China, because I’m not in China and the people who are there find it difficult to get the truth out.
      What I do know is that, hypothetically, there is a 3rd alternative to the dilemma you pose: That China’s figures are not correct because many cases of COVID19 are being classified as some other illness so any subsequent death affects neither the numerator nor denominator of the official COVID19 CFR, and therefore it can spread more widely than is reported even if the CFR is true.
      eg In one week in a town of 1000 people, say 100 cases that later result in 10 deaths could have the second 60 presentations classified as ordinary pneumonia. That leaves 40 cases that result in 4 deaths, so CFR is still 10%, but the cases are underreported as 4% instead of 10%, a factor of 2.5. This downplays the threat without changing the CFR.
      If you can believe what Winston from ADVChina has heard from his medical contact in China, that is what is happening. The digital grapevine says a quota system has been enforced which prevents any hospital from reporting more than 500 COVID19 cases per week.

      As C-Milk says, comparing the figures from ROK and China shows the Chinese figures don’t add up. ROK has 7041 cases from a pop of 51M, or 0.013%. Applied to China’s 1400M population that would be 193k confirmed cases, but they report only 80k cases, a factor of 2.4. It should be even more than that in China because of how long it was spreading before they took any action at containment, and it has been running longer there, compared to ROK where it started later and the authorities acted more swiftly (benefiting from knowledge gained from China).
      eg South Korea had no known cases until 18 Feb, and just 10 days later they had passed laws imposing fines and prison terms for anyone violating an imposed medical quarantine period (even for home isolation).

      C-Milk also claims China’s cases are underrported by a factor of 10, but it sounds too round and they did not specify a source for that number.

      That’s all assuming there is no bias about which cases get reclassified, but any bias towards severe symptom presentations is going to lower the CFR too.

      50

  • #
    tonyb

    I feel sorry for the makers of Corona beer who have seen sales plummet.

    Mind you I go to a pizzeria called Isis named after the Egyptian god and also an alternative local name for the River Thames.

    The number of tourists outside photographing the sign of the restaurant apparently run by terrorists were greater than the number inside eating the pizzas.

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      GD

      I feel sorry for the makers of Corona beer who have seen sales plummet

      We’re seeing stupidity with people fighting over toilet paper in supermarkets, but surely peak stupid is to stop buying Corona beer for fear of the virus.

      Actually, peak stupid is believing that CO2 is causing the planet to burn, but the Corona beer stupidity is up there with it.

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      robert rosicka

      A local liquor outlet is giving away four rolls of toilet paper with every slab of Corona beer .

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    Roger Knights

    “Wash hands”

    I have some questions:
    1. Would dowsing ones hands for five seconds in a tub or bowl of water containing a diluted amount of bleach work as well? Doing so would save time, perhaps resulting in more compliance.

    2. Would soft absorbent gloves (such as ladies (e.g., Jackie Kennedy) used to wear outdoors) provide a worthwhile amount of protection? I.e., would the virus have a shorter lifespan thereon than on a leather or latex glove, or on bare skin? Might they elimiinate the need for hand sanitizers, or provide an alternative for those who can’t afford or obtain them?

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      GD

      Similarly, when forced to visit a large supermarket, do the thin latex gloves protect against picking up the virus, if it is there, ie on shopping trolleys and self-serve checkouts?

      If so, latex gloves would seem to be advantageous to wear just prior to entering the store and then discarding in the garbage on the street before getting in your car.

      Of course, that presumes that the shelf stackers aren’t infected.

      Am I making any sense here, or am I freaking out for no reason?

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      Ozwitch

      Regarding 1. Diluted bleach will probably not kill the bugs but make your skin dry and chapped and vulnerable to infections. Better to use soap and water, hot if possible, so the bugs are rinsed off. Take your own soap dispenser in your bag if worried.

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    WXcycles

    Twice, he thought he was well, only to relapse. But he does recover.

    He admitted to drinking during the illness, and probably resumed drinking soon after he ‘recovered’. That is what probably weakened his immune response once more to cause a relapse. I’d not be surprised if he’s an alcoholic, or soon will be. Alcoholics are also notorious for eating a poor diet, sleeping poor hours and not giving themselves time to recover from successive binges. Thus a stronger impact on a young man who most likely wasn’t taking good care of his health.

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    LightningCamel

    I just came across a new site presenting a range of data on Wuhan Flu disease, deaths and epidemic models. There are 28 pages of live and modelled information which some may find useful.

    The same blog also has a useful article on the various definitions associated with death rates for an epidemic.

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    • #
      Andrew McRae

      That PowerBI tool looks amazing. Surprised its from Microsoft. Great site, thanks for link.

      I was doing an exponential regression on the Australian data this morning and got projections of about 100 by 13 March, and 330 cumulative cases by 31 March, compounding roughly +60% each week.
      That Avatorl site predicts 139 by 13 March, but they are only extrapolating from a week of data, so it will be thrown off by bursts and slow periods and will not use the overall trend curve.
      I reckon by end of this Friday it will be closer to 100 than 139, so between 90 and 119.

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    MudCrab

    One thing I found mildly disturbing was earlier this weekend when I was down shops. (buying FOOD, not wood pulp products thanks for asking).

    The customer in front of me was chatting casually with the sales check out girl, and to paraphrase, the consensus was that if you were going to get sick there was not much you could do about it so you would just have to deal with it.

    Wow. Destiny, huh? We are not fully in control of our own fates, and when The Lady spins her fickle wheel either your number comes up or is doesn’t.

    Yeah… NO.

    This is like saying if you are going to get eaten by a shark it is so random there is no way you can prevent it. Except of course if you never swim in the ocean then the entire shark based problem goes away entirely. Sharknados notwithstanding.

    Sigh.

    This is why Safety Engineering is such a massive sub-industry. People these days do not seem to believe in the simple act of looking out for their own personal welfare.

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