JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



7,000 excess winter deaths in Australia and 1,500 in New Zealand each year

Excess winter deaths are more than triple the number killed on the road.

Indur Goklany compares average daily deaths for each month in Australia and New Zealand and shows that in both countries (like in much of the rest of the world) there are more deaths in the cooler months.

While climate change legislation aims to make the world cooler, statistics show that the cooler months consistently have higher mortality.

In the unlikely event that legislation might succeed in reducing global temperatures, based on past statistical records, thousands of extra people may die as a result. In study after study, it’s clear that more people die in the colder months than in the rest of the year. The trend applies even in warm countries like Australia.

 

Average daily deaths for each month in Australia (left axis, black numbers) and New Zealand (right axis, grey numbers) over a ten year period.

 

The statistics indicate that:

  • For the 10-year period, 1998-2007, Australia had excess winter deaths of 6,779 per yr out of a total of 131,613 deaths per yr (avg.) This works out to 5.2% of all deaths per yr (on avg).
  • For the 10-yr period, 1999-2008, NZ had excess winter deaths of 1,542 per yr out of a total of 27,792 deaths per yr (avg.) This is equivalent to 5.5% of all deaths per yr (on avg).

The excess deaths in winter are roughly more than 4.5 times (Australia) and 3.75 times (New Zealand) the annual road toll.

 Sources

Australian Bureau of Statistics Death Australia 2008
New Zealand Statistics: Births Deaths
Annual Road Toll Australia: approx 1500 deaths
Annual Road Toll New Zealand: approx 400 deaths

Acknowledgements:

Thanks to Indur Goklany: Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, Michigan State University. Goklany has worked with the IPCC as an author, US delegate and reviewer, was involved in managing the emissions trading program at the EPA before it became fashionable. Julian Simon Fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center (2000), Visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (2002-2003). Winner of the Julian Simon Prize and Award (2007). He has written extensively on the interactions between globalization, economic development, environmental quality, technological change, climate change, and human well-being.

Related Posts:

Evidence suggests global warming is good for our health

Cold times means more death, war, rebellion, drought and flood in China

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 8.7/10 (49 votes cast)
7,000 excess winter deaths in Australia and 1,500 in New Zealand each year, 8.7 out of 10 based on 49 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/7hy7kwc

125 comments to 7,000 excess winter deaths in Australia and 1,500 in New Zealand each year

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Seven thousand excess deaths are not enough for the climate change alarmists, they want to put a stop to human progress and human productivity. It is not, as they say, that they want themselves and us to live lightly on the earth. They don’t want any human to live on the earth! The reason? They hate the responsibility of being human in a reality that requires them to think and act rationally.

    No matter what they say, they do not have good intentions.


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    That’s hardly a surprise.


    Report this

    00

  • #

    In case you have not seen it:

    The Duke of Edinburgh has made a fierce attack on wind farms, describing them as “absolutely useless”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/prince-philip/8901985/Wind-farms-are-useless-says-Duke.html#disqus_thread


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Siliggy

    “Interim report from an independent review of fuel poverty says the number of people living in cold homes contributes to Britain’s unusually high rates of ‘excess winter deaths”
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/oct/19/fuel-poverty-2700-victims-winter


    Report this

    00

    • #
      JustMEinT

      Having lived some considerable years in the UK and seen/lived thru some extremely cold winters myself I do know that deaths in the aged population always are greater when it is colder.

      There are a few people out in the blogsphere predicting the next solar cycle will bring in a new (type) Maunder Minimum…. better start stocking up on thermals etc……

      I blogged today on the situation where you have two different versions of science (and outcomes) being touted in the MSM……

      http://justmeint.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/scientists-and-politicians-cannot-agree-have-to-play-the-blame-game/

      Why is it that two different groups of scientists can come out in the media in the same week, warning of impending dooms and gloom for earth’s population, but for very different reasons?

      One group is pushing the IPCC’s (AL Gore et all) AGW agenda while the other is warning of dire (BIG WORD THAT) consequences of solar activity on world extreme weather patterns. Read On please…………


      Report this

      00

  • #
    RB

    You are far too polite.

    Here in the UK the figure for excess winter deaths in in the region of between 20000-30000 per year. And the politicians, particularly that utter moron Hune, dont give a flying f**k.

    In my lifetime I seriously think that we will actually [snip. Not sure what you're getting at. rephrase and repost please. mod oggi]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    geronimo

    Jo, do you seriously believed the greens give a FF about the number of HUMANS dying?


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Manfred

      The greens avowed intent is to reduce global population. Their view is that humans are a blight upon Gaia. Their favoured remedy: the artificial imposition of their version of natural selection. We’re staring to see the stark effects resulting from power impoverishment. There will be more unpleasantness if their primitivising efforts continue unchecked. Fortunately though, they are generally too stupid to realise that they are the authors of their own demise, much like the rest of totalitarianism. They refute human nature. They deny the more abundant, creative and competitive wish of humanity, which is to strive and improve in all respects, at all times.

      Folk will soon figure out the obvious, that their lives will be improved immeasurably by feeding the Greens to a political and economic footnote in history, and that their ability to participate meaningfully and freely in a sophisticated, civilised 21st century demands a supply of plentiful cheap power, well within the recent abilities of technology and a most desirable necessity.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    Jeremy C

    I always thought you deniers banged on about correlation not being causation and now you are doing just that.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Lawrie

      You do have another explanation of course? Things die in winter because it is cold and most organisms require warmth for survival. That applies to humans as well. Have you ever heard of the winter cold and flu season? We don’t hear of a summer cold and flu season. Winter flu kills older folk through follow on disease such as pneumonia. It is helped through dampness, mould and inability to stay warm. These are well known facts so the cause and correlation are well founded so unlike the connection between CO2 and global warming or, more recently, global cooling. In the AGW hypothesis the correlation is no more whereas the correlation between cold and deaths has survived for centuries.

      Think before you speak and you will not look so foolish.


      Report this

      00

    • #

      We deniers bang on about the sheer stupidity which causes this mess. Of course there is a correlation and a causation and you damn well know it !!

      Say YES to an election now !!


      Report this

      00

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Jeremy C

      I don’t really see your point. Joanne is commenting on the correlation that more people die in winter. There is well established medical evidence that colder conditions does have the propensity to cause mortality. The medical term is “hyperthermia”.

      Surely you are not suggesting that the number of deaths causes the weather to get colder?

      C- … Needs to try harder


      Report this

      00

    • #

      See Jeremy, that’s what I like about your comments. You prove the point that warmists struggle with reading and comprehension. Quote the part where I “bang on about causation.”


      Report this

      00

    • #
      Twodogs

      Of course, silly us. All those dying people are causing winter! Of course it doesn’t prove causation, but if the medical profession didn’t believe it, then why would they advise flu sufferers to stay out of the rain? Superstition, perhaps?


      Report this

      00

  • #
    Cookster

    And in Australia we haven’t yet seen what the effects of increased electricity costs due to the CO2 tax will be. I suggest winter dealths will rise further as people will be even less inclined to turn the heater on.

    OT, Graham Lloyd of The Australian gives his summation of the IPCC’s latest take on the linked between extreme weather and AGW. Graham is ever the alarmist but to summarise the article:

    1. As per Jo’s previous post this gives the alamists a get out clause.
    2. This can be used as an excuse to maintain the current bloated funding into climate research in proportion to other fields. The admission that there is poor understanding of extreme weather will help ensure the Jim Hansens and Andy Pitmans of the world will maintain their power and influence in the academic world for the foreseeable future.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/freak-weather-a-certainty-but-ipcc-report-less-sure-on-why/story-e6frgd0x-1226200588371


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Joe Born

    Although I, too, would infer from the statistics that the colder part of the year is harder on health than the warmer part, there’s a subtlety here that I would caution you not to lose sight of. If I remember correctly, the effect you describe is seen in Florida as well as in Minnesota, so it may that relative cold–i.e., relative to what the locals are accustomed to or to what they typically dress for or to what their houses tend to be insulated against–is a stronger determinant of excess deaths than absolute temperature. If so, those statistics don’t necessarily mean that change to a lower average temperature will result in more deaths, at least after people become accustomed to the new average temperature level.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Braddles

      Good comment. If cold per se had such an effect on mortality, then life expectancy in Canada would be much shorter than Australia.


      Report this

      00

      • #
        Streetcred

        That would only be true if they attempted to ‘live like Australians in a warm climate’. Fortunately Canadians’ design their environments to suit the climatic conditions and they are not as mired in energy poverty yet as say what the UK is.


        Report this

        00

      • #
        Hasbeen

        Canadians don’t go out in the cold.

        The ones I know don’t have clothes suitable for a Melbourne winter.

        Yes they do have heavy cold stuff, for -20 & below, but otherwise they go from a heated house to a heated garage, into a heated car, plugged into heaters, so the water is kept permanently warm, & drive to heated car parks, at work or the shopping centers.

        Florida can get cold enough to need heat too you know.

        I have seen minus 5 in my house near Brisbane. It only takes one cold night to freeze to death you know.


        Report this

        00

        • #
          Robert

          Just a side note, we moved from Minnesota to Florida in 1973 if I remember correctly. A few years later we had snow in the winter. Not many things quite as humorous as seeing native Floridians freak out when it snows there. The state pretty much screeches to a halt.

          Back in Minnesota now after a few years out west in the mountains where I was born. The warm temps. like Florida has that I was used to as a teen are a tad too warm for me now, while the weather that had been too cold for me (after living in the South) I’m adjusting to.

          We adapt. We always have unless something (or someone) prevents us from doing so.


          Report this

          00

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        It’s not cold as much as the temperature differential.

        When I was working in SE Asia, close to the equator, we had local staff who preferred to sleep outside on the verandas. The average daytime temperatures were around 35C, with nighttime temperatures around 30C – not a huge differential, but high humidity.

        One night, a weather front came through and the temperature suddenly dropped to around 20C – a very unusual event. Several of the local staff died from hyperthermia.

        Twenty degrees Celsius is the temperature we set our office air-conditioners to. It is a comfortable temperature for those who are used to it.

        And yet we have these so-called “climate scientists” prattling on about a one or two degree rise in average global temperatures. I wish! It is the sudden departure from the norm that kills, not the absolute value.


        Report this

        00

    • #
      Bulldust

      Add to that the fact that winter is associated with flu season. I see no mention of the cause of death. It may be that the author has exmined strictly temperature-related causes of death, but it is not stated. If memory serves I believe flu causes about 1,500 deaths (or thereabouts) in Australia each year.


      Report this

      00

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        The stats Jo linked to don’t seem to have even a glimmer of understanding that cause might be important here. I’ve come to know this is the typical number cruncher’s understanding of the world. It’s very useful if you’re an insurance actuary. But it rings a kittle hollow when you’re talking about people dying from some specific cause — a cause that’s not even slightly specific in reality, just colder weather.

        The causes could range all the way from someone who took a foolish chance on an icy street to someone very sick who needed extra care to survive and didn’t get it


        Report this

        00

        • #
          rukidding

          Yes I am with you Roy show us the death certificates with the cause of death on them.If the cause of death is weather related why don’t we have a public awareness campaign about it.We have one for just about everything else.


          Report this

          00

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    Thankfully we have a thinker on board today. But the only thing that would make any “excess” death statistic worthwhile would be a breakdown of all deaths over the whole year by cause. Then you can see exactly what’s happening in the colder months.

    But I have a better question: If the government of Australia is so concerned about “excess” deaths and if they’re paying such diligent attention to the welfare of all Australians — why are they not taking action to help those who might otherwise die during the cold? I can think of a number of things they could do to better waste use the tax dollars of hard working Australians that would actually help the situation.

    I’ll not enumerate all the possibilities. I’m sure all of you have had the same thought.


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    That last post was a reply to Joe Born but for some reason it didn’t work. Nuts.

    Good clear thinking there, Joe


    Report this

    00

  • #
    MadJak

    Ok,

    A bit of perspective here – over 750,000 people have died from Techtonic activity over the last decade. That’s ~75,000 per year.

    Of course, there are no plans to raise funds for further research into this because our dear leaders see it as being too complex and unpredictable,

    Even though Techtonic activity, whilst being complex is no where near as complex as the climate.


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Edmitzo

    Amusing theory, but I suspect we would all be better off sticking to the position that increased CO2 will not raise global temperature substantially. By the same reasoning, reducing the CO2 will not appreciably lower temperatures. So the only value in this argument is the posibility that it may make some politician, somewhere, squirm for a micro-second.


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Jeremy C

    Braddles example says it all!


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Crakar24

      JC,

      I think we should not get confused with luxury and necessity.

      For example it can get very hot in Darwin, i remember many a time when it was 38C at noon and 38C at midnight. Some people liked to use A/C at night to take the edge off but i found this only made me sick with a cold or flu but the use of an A/C is a luxury.

      My job meant that i had to work outdoors in the middle of nowhere in the heat and if you were not careful you could die of heat stroke quite quickly in fact many people have died from this.

      Where i live now it does not get as hot but during winter it can get quite cold so i turn on the heater, the cold is not enough to kill me so therefore the heater should be classed as a luxury.

      The point i am trying to make here is that there is not one species on the planet that lives everywhere on the planet and the simple reason is because they cannot and if they try they will die.

      What are the most remote places on Earth? Very hot and very cold places and we humans have worked out a way to artificially generate both heating and cooling so we can live there, in this case it is a necessity as opposed to a luxury.

      In the end we are more tolerant of warmer climates than cooler ones so give me Darwin over the Ross ice shelf anytime.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    John James

    David Cameron Sends Up Julia Gillard In The British Parliament….

    As if it’s not bad enough Juliar putting her hands all over Old-Barma, now the British PM is regaling MPS in the British Parliament about our appalling PM !

    http://youtu.be/BonD74vpHuQ


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Obama made his usual ass of himself regaling Ms. Gillard with his understanding of Australian idiom. Where’s the complaining about our appalling President? There surely ought to be some from someone.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    • #
      Mark

      JJ

      That’s like the doctor who gave his patient six months to live. When the bill hadn’t been paid by that time, the doctor gave him another six months!


      Report this

      00

  • #
    Rodzki

    I’m pretty sure I’ve heard Will Steffan say that the observed increase in average global temparature manifests itself more as increases in temperature minima, as opposed to increasing maxima. Looking to see if I can find a reference. If so, that would indicate a reduction in temperature variation (higher stability), and ought to mitigate the excess Winter death syndrome.

    Sound reasonable?


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Bulldust

    There is an interesting piece at the SMH about Bolt’s background, and it is quite neutral:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/i-dont-have-to-fear-insulting-people–20111121-1nptc.html

    I didn’t realise he was a Dutchie… that might explain some of the empathy I feel for the chap. Being half Dutch and British (born in Oz) I have always been the foreigner, speaking Dutch with an English accent and English with a Dutch accent as a kid* It is easy to identify with aspects of the man.

    * Tragically I speak English with a slight seppo twang now, but that’s another story.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Crakar24

      Thanks bulldust that answers a lot of questions :P


      Report this

      00

      • #
        Bulldust

        I am always bemused how the PC press like to demonise the chap. I find it difficult to ascertain exactly what their problem is with him. I keep thinking their must be some heinous blogs or statements he has made which I have never seen, otherwise their loathing would be unwarranted. Most of the time, at least as far as I have seen, he makes valid and logical points.


        Report this

        00

        • #
          Crakar24

          I meant it answers a lot of questions about you (well it was a joke).

          I always find Bolt OK i dont agree with everything he says but most, Bolts problem is that he tells it like it is and they dont like it that way.


          Report this

          00

          • #
            MattB

            His recent problem seems to be that he simply makes stuff up when it suits him.


            Report this

            00

          • #
            Crakar24

            Makes stuff up?

            He is a journo and his job is to express an opinion……….i suppose this could be construed as making stuff up when and if his opinions differ from ones own.

            For example i dont like the Zionists but when Bolt gets up the Greens for trying to drive a Sydney coffee shop owner out of business just because he is Jewish (BDS) i totally agree with Bolt, however Bolt supports the Israeli government and therefore apartheid. So here we may differ slightly but poor old Bob gets shit in the liver because someone has called to account.

            Problem with you MattB is that you dont think you are told what to think but BOb and co, Bolt largely disagrees with Bob and co so in your sheltered mind he makes shit up.


            Report this

            00

          • #
            John Brookes

            You see, that is the problem with Bolt.

            the Greens for trying to drive a Sydney coffee shop owner out of business just because he is Jewish (BDS)

            I read this and think. Is it official Green policy? If so, is it the NSW Greens, or the Australian Greens, or just the Leichardt branch? Is it just because he is Jewish? There is no other reason that he has been singled out?

            However, whatever the details, you should only put coffee shops out of business if they sell bad coffee – and even then, you do it by just not going there…


            Report this

            00

          • #
            crakar

            JB,

            Does it really matter which section of the Greens embraces BDS or to put it another way racism?

            I only brought the subject up to illustrate how two can agree on one subject and not another without claiming the other side is making stuff up.

            I think it is time some people approached these debates with an adult attitude if they cant then they should refrain from posting.


            Report this

            00

        • #
          Andrew McRae

          I find it difficult to ascertain exactly what their problem is with him.

          BoltA said that someone who was half aboriginal wasn’t aboriginal enough for their aboriginal-reserved job.
          I would have thought 50% was enough, but what would I know, I’m just the moral majority.
          Then he implied that someone who was 92% aboriginal wasn’t aboriginal enough.

          Calling it how it looks isn’t the same as being correct, especially when you wear racist sunglasses.
          He could be right about everything else, but the Cole RDA case gave his critics unstoppable ammunition.

          That’s the only indisputable mark against him, but one can argue how much weight this should be given, especially on completely unrelated topics such as CAGW and the proven corruption and obvious malpractice of the government. It’s for these other (more pressing?) matters that we still need journos prepared to call a spade a spade (on the condition they have checked it’s not a fork).


          Report this

          00

        • #
          Tom

          The key to understanding the Left is that its collectivists just don’t get personal liberty. As with the current discussion about the Racial Discrimination Act, the collectivists think we need to make sacrifices to appease minority groups. The idea that individual rights should be the foundation of libery and, therefore, personal freedom is something they neither understand or support. Gays and blacks, for example, are entitled to collective rights that extinguish freedom of speech. This is why the collectivism of the Greens make them totalitarians (I’d use the ‘F’ word, but I don’t want to cause moderation problems): dissent (e.g., on climate “warming”) must be suppressed for the common good. This is a long-winded way of saying that understanding Bolt is quite simple, but not to the Left. The article on the Fairfax website today is part of the company’s long, painful suicide note, because it no longer produces professional, unbiased journalism for the majority. MattB: you are an ignorant clown.


          Report this

          00

    • #
      rukidding

      MattB says

      His recent problem seems to be that he simply makes stuff up when it suits him.

      He must have learned that from the AGW mob. :-)


      Report this

      00

  • #
    pat

    Archant Publishing’s East Anglia Daily Times and their CYNICAL concern for those suffering from high, CAGW-related heating costs in the UK:

    18 Nov: East Anglia Daily Times:Suffolk: Ipswich Building Society backs Surviving Winter campaign
    by Craig Robinson
    Chief executive (Ipswich Building Society) Paul Winter said: “As it gets colder many of us will simply turn our heating up, but there are a lot of people who are unable to afford the rising fuel costs and will struggle to heat their homes this winter…
    http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/suffolk_ipswich_building_society_backs_surviving_winter_campaign_1_1129728

    Archant Board: Chairman: Richard Jewson
    He is HM Lord Lieutenant of Norfolk and also Chairs the Council for the University of East Anglia.
    Richard chairs the remuneration and nominations committees.
    Vice Chairman: Peter Troughton
    He left in 1995 to become Deputy Chairman of Rothschild Asset Management until 1999. He is a director of a number of private companies. He is a non-executive director of Lowland Investment Company plc and JOHIM Global Investment Funds plc…
    Chief Executive: Adrian Jeakings
    He is a governor of Norwich School and a member of the Audit Committee of the University of East Anglia…
    Director: Mike Walsh
    He has had extensive involvement in the charity sector as Worldwide Board member of WWF…
    http://www.archant.co.uk/about_board.aspx

    check the very lengthy list of regional media controlled by Archant – no doubt all involved in the CAGW cause:

    Wikipedia: Archant
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archant


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Juliar

    This report by Jo is certainly a bit left field. Even if AGW were true and I was a politician I would certainly not be saying “let the planet warm so we have less deaths on our roads”. The reason why there would be more excess deaths on our roads during in the winter is because of the increased amount of rain which makes the roads more slippery which means there is less fricition between the tyre and the road surface so crashes are more likely to eventuate. Sorry but this report is a little bit silly.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Juliar

      I have realised that I misread some of the report Jo but even so I still think the report is a bit silly. As much as I dislike legislation regarding AGW, it’s a long bow to be drawing when linking AGW legislation with deaths during Winter.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    connolly

    From W R Keatinge et al, “Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study” BMJ 2000;321:670-673

    All regions showed more annual cold related mortality than heat related mortality. Some of those who died in the heat may not have lived long if a heat wave had not occurred. Mortality often falls below baseline for several days after the end of a heat wave, and this has been interpreted as indicating that some of the people dying during the heat wave were already close to death.

    Some of the excess deaths in the cold may have resulted from non-thermal seasonal factors such as winter diet, but deaths due to such factors are likely to be few.

    Falls in temperature in winter are closely followed by increased mortality, with characteristic time courses for different causes of death.
    The increases are of sufficient size to account for the overall increase in mortality in winter, suggesting that most excess winter deaths are due to relatively direct effects of cold on the population
    .“

    Full paper here.

    http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670.full

    To put it brutally – heat tends to kill the already dying. Cold just kills.


    Report this

    00

  • #
  • #
    y0ink

    Possibly the most desperate, irresponsible and worst articles every blogged by someone holding a science degree.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      connolly

      Turn it up. Get out into the real world and you may have an understanding of what energy poverty means and its health effects on the poor and vulnerable. Sorry i forgot. You want to increase the price of energy through a Pigovian tax. And the poor can go to hell.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    MattB

    It’s pretty clear from the headline that there are more excess deaths in winter in the warmer country. So warmer winters are bad for human health. Genius.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Crakar24

      The headline

      7,000 excess winter deaths in Australia and 1,500 in New Zealand each year

      Hmmmmmmmm once again MattB your illogical jibberish is lost on me.


      Report this

      00

      • #
        MattB

        And Australia is the warmer country. No wonder lost on you…

        The point is, for those for whom it is unclear, is that this is a lousy piece. Meaningless dribble. Winter = flu season.


        Report this

        00

        • #
          Crakar24

          And you got all this from the headline? I suspect you make shit up and then debate it.

          What is with this “warmer country” i dont recal that being said in the story.

          The bottom line is that more people die when it is cold, it does not matter how/when/where/why they die they just do.

          Ergo, any plans whether they be draconian/simplistic/idealogical/stupid/useless/costly to create a colder world will lead to more deaths.

          Simple logic that i do not expect a warmbot like yourself would understand. Suggest you continue to sit quietly and watch, listen and learn.


          Report this

          00

          • #
            MattB

            Crackar.. I highly doubt that I’m the only person here who knows Australia is warmer than New Zealand.

            They do not die because it is cold. They die of seasonal illnesses that kill as many in a country with warmer winters (Australia) as they do in a country with colder winters (New Zealand).

            Your simple logic, I’m afraid, is the logic of a simpleton.


            Report this

            00

          • #
            MadJak

            I have heard of some NZ pensioners dying because their property was built like a chillibin (as many NZ buildings are – they’re iceboxes), and at least partially due to the NZ ETS were too afraid of their electricity bill to warm themselves up.

            I am also aware of at least one aged care home which has a habit of only turning on the central heating when important visitors are arriving.


            Report this

            00

          • #
            Crakar24

            They do not die because it is cold

            They die of seasonal illnesses

            Your simple logic, I’m afraid, is the logic of a simpleton.

            What else needs to be said?


            Report this

            00

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          Yes they die from winter illnesses BECAUSE they are more vunerable to cold BECAUSE they turn their heaters off. Its been in the news in NZ for years!


          Report this

          00

    • #
      connolly

      Que? The New Zealand cold weather excess deaths are a higher percentage of total deaths than those of the Australian cold deaths/total death ratio . Meds haven’t kicked in yet cobber?


      Report this

      00

      • #
        John Brookes

        I must say that I find the article and the post most illuminating.

        Particularly stunning was the bit where it showed that life expectancy in the tropics was considerably longer than life expectancy in more temperate climates. Its been known for some time now that the Japanese, for example, have much shorter lives than residents of Indonesia.

        But to see the linear gradient of life expectancy vs mean winter temperature was most gratifying.


        Report this

        00

      • #
        theRealUniverse

        The NZ deaths of old people from cold isnt new its been going on in the South Is since the power cooperate crims put the price of power up so high as well as excessive line charges. So they just turn their heaters off and die!


        Report this

        00

  • #
    Considerate Thinker

    This where I feel the Carbon Tax faces the most political backlash and eventual the oblivion for at least one party.

    The greens are wedged on the issue, with lots of backslapping of each other and righteous indignation that anyone will abandon it.

    Gillard is positioning to a point where it was something Labor had to do “for the Greens” to entice them into a strange partners alliance, but she can easily backflip away from it, with just a small move towards recognising rather then denying, the changing mood of Climate science. Dumping the fellow travellers like Flannery and the compliant cabal of scientists who have been providing the “team echo chamber” in Australia. The media will go with the “deal” to drop certain political inquiries.

    Not so hard when the probable majority of pragmatic Laborites have their own deep concern that CAGW IS just a crock, foisted on them by a need to satisfy the Greens (their electorates tell them it runs against common sense)and some biased science.

    Won’t be hard to sell if they decide to head that way.

    They also know that whatever is said about rising costs under a carbon tax, that even with tax rebates many voters will hit with hardship. They will inevitable have those families that fall between the cracks, unable to afford, or afraid of risking huge energy bills.

    Worried voters that they have heaters and air conditioners,they dare not use due to the crippling impact of basic energy costs, added to the perceived burden of rising costs of everything else. Not to mention uncertain employment and loss to small business.

    Doesn’t matter that they might be able to fling dollars back to the needy under a carbon tax. This is haphazard in nature and fraught with danger of rorting, corruption and confusion. Easily converted from a win win situation to a lose lose situation as the situation and reality deteriorates under intense media and public scrutiny.

    It may well be that the end of the day, the carbon tax will fall by the wayside as parties distance themselves from it, or seek better outcomes as the world moves further away from any agreement on such taxes.

    The greens will find themselves eating dust as the two other parties vie for the middle ground of Australian Politics. Then the most popular of those on the nose might just have a chance of governing in their own right.

    Just needs a little more political re-positioning and it’s bring on the election!


    Report this

    00

    • #
      connolly

      All the back slapping, hubris and lying associated with the passage of the carbon dioxide legislation has had no effect on the strong percentage of australians opposing the tax.

      From Essential Media poll out today (notoriously pro ALP run by an ex-acolyte of the truely appalling Michael Costa)

      “Views on the carbon pricing scheme have changed very little since June and there has been no significant change since the legislation was passed. 38% support the scheme (down 1% since October) and 53% oppose (no change)” Just a vote will do it. And yes revenge is a dish best served cold.

      http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/essential-report/


      Report this

      00

    • #
      The Black Adder

      Brilliant observations Considerate Thinker!

      ` I feel the Carbon Tax faces the most political backlash and eventual oblivion for at least one party.

      You are dead right on that one!

      Hmmmm….. who are you?

      Surely not a Politician?
      Surely not a Journalist?

      are you just like me? Fed up!


      Report this

      00

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      Don’t worry about the government stealing our money in carbon taxes, I’ve found the answer!
      Turns daylight robbery into a dash for cash!


      Report this

      00

  • #

    Hi guys, Jo’s post might have consequences beyond the imagination if the latest papers I received from NIPCC is correct?
    http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/nov/16nov2011a2.html

    Finally, the large cooling tendency of about 1.5°C predicted by Humlum et al. for the next 800 years, as shown in Figure 1, poses a serious challenge to IPCC climate projection scenarios that only consider rising atmospheric CO2 as the significant modulator of surface temperature changes in Greenland. The work of Humlum et al. suggests that Greenland will not melt away if atmospheric CO2 emissions are not severely reduced.

    This is all from a GCM as well and they say the science is settled. hahahahaha :)

    Say YES to an election now !!


    Report this

    00

  • #

    My apologies I thought the blue highlight would work on the Pasted section of the text…I failed :(

    Say YES to an election now !!


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Jake

    So now we need a scientist to confirm what has been known for centuries? All to prove that we should not be cooling the planet but aid the warming. Come on. Humanity thrived in the MWP and in the RWP. Then as it all cooled down again Europe saw the great movements of people from about 400 AD onwards and after the MWP Europe had the plague and everything else. Pretty obvious that we do not want it colder, warmer is better. But why do we need scientists to come up with these stories when common sense shows the fallacy of AGW or climate disruption or whatever they call it these days. We are wasting billions of tax payer money to prove to, yes to who actually, that it is warming or doing whatever due to human activity. What they really try to do is getting alternative energy sources up and running which, apart from central control, may then prevent the world running out of fossil fuels too soon. The day for renewables will come, and when it comes it comes. Let”s not waste any more money on proving that AGW is real. Just imagine what the world could have done instead with the billions upon billions spent on proving this nonsense theory. After all the Vikings called Greenland green for a reason. Why do the politicians want us to forget that?


    Report this

    00

  • #

    [...] 7,000 excess winter deaths in Australia and 1,500 in New Zealand each year – Excess winter deaths are more than triple the number killed on the road. [...]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    matthu

    Apparently, Monckton is a member of the House of Lords, according to constitutional lawyer in England.

    O’Donoghue, who specializes in difficult human-rights cases and Peerage law, spent months carefully researching Monckton’s question. He says Lord Monckton “was and is correct at all points”.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/20/dont-mock-the-monck/#more-51478


    Report this

    00

    • #
      MattB

      Lol I could find me a lawyer who’d argue in court that the moon is a marshmallow… it is the judge’s opinion that counts. Everyone ever found guilty had a lawyer arguing the opposite.


      Report this

      00

      • #
        memoryvault

        Given that Monckton has now formally complained to the Lord Speaker and the Chairman of the Privileges Committee, the “judge’s opinion” should be known soon enough.

        Presumably, at that point you’ll become as garrulous on this subject as you were on the last thread, concerning the backpedaling by the IPCC.

        Funny that.


        Report this

        00

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Please don’t bother MattB. He’s the only comic relief we get around here. What would we do without him?

          Actually, in his inimitable way, he’s right. He probably can find a lawyer who’ll argue almost anything he wants for, say, $800 an hour. It doesn’t speak well of the character of such a hired gun and it leaves me wondering why we continually elect the same types to public office.


          Report this

          00

        • #
          MattB

          MV if it is decided he is correct in the manner in which he describes his affiliation with the House of Lords then so be it. Of course I’ll still be of the opinion that the whole idea of hereditary membership of the house of lords is absurd. And I’ll still be of the opinion that MoB is nuts.


          Report this

          00

      • #
        Bruce of Newcastle

        Careful what you wish for Matt. CM almost certainly wants a court case, and I think he’d win handily. The evidence of the legal opinion looks solid.

        Then the CAGW side would have a difficult time because the ‘false lord’ theme has been strong in the CAGW arguments against Chris Monckton. Going the man is a mistake in a war of ideas like this is. If a court shows that he is correct in law, and the consensus wrong in law, then poor little sceptics like me can then say “well he was proved right despite years of criticism by CAGW people, and he is right in the science too”. People will nod their heads and say ‘he has a point, yes, hmmm I’ll look at a Monckton presentation and see what it says’. If you have seen one of his technical presentations you’ll see the data shows pretty conclusively that CAGW is not going to happen, and that climate sensitivity is low. All the sources are cited, anyone looking at his presentation can go to the primary sources to check.

        And yes, on the basis to CM’s presentations he’s a lukewarmer – he puts 2XCO2 at 1 C, whereas I go with 0.7 C.

        The only hope the CAGW side has to avoid enormous public embarrassment in a court case is if the temperature gets so cold that everyone forgets the CAGW fad the same way they forgot the ice age scare in the ’70′s. But that cure would be worse than the disease for CAGW supporters.


        Report this

        00

        • #
          MattB

          “Careful what you wish for Matt. CM almost certainly wants a court case, and I think he’d win handily. The evidence of the legal opinion looks solid.”

          Rather he wants to make it look as though he certainly wants a court case, and have people think that if he did have one he’d win handily. Reality is he’d rather have it drag on in the blogosphere for as long as possible, and remain free to utter absuditae ad infintum.


          Report this

          00

      • #

        That’s right MattB don’t apologise to Christopher Monckton for all the previous ad hom’s you have bestowed upon him. We don’t really expect anything from you, Monbiot, Cook or any of the warmist’s that might even remotely look like humility but I will stand corrected if it comes..I have the sense I will be waiting a long time!!

        Say YES to an election now !!


        Report this

        00

  • #
    Tom

    Jo, forget about the cold. We know you’re burning up over there in drought-stricken Perth*: you’re so close to Durban! Only seven more sleeps, but I predict the searing hot front will hit us in Saturday morning’s Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Drowning poley bears. Maldivans preparing themselves for their watery tomb (or the UN cheque – whichever comes first). And, of course, a “terrifying new report”. Then, on Sunday, Rajendra Pachauri wheels out Brad and Angelina in a desperate plea for funding .. er, urgent action. Or will they keep Rajendra locked away with Tim Flannery to ensure there’s no outbreak of foot-and-mouth?
    *What? The drought broke? Impossible! Don’t worry: Perth will still be Australia’s first ghost metropolis – it’s in the scriptures of Gaia!


    Report this

    00

    • #
      rukidding

      Do you know Perth has had more than 100mm more rain than either Melbourne or Hobart since 2000.

      To the mods I sent a post about this but it did not seem to show up.
      sorry if it posts later.


      Report this

      00

      • #
        rukidding

        That was per year.
        I will get this post right eventually. :-)


        Report this

        00

      • #
        John Brookes

        Perth is so wet! We have had above average rainfall for several months this year. However, the annual average looks safe so far – we aren’t likely to reach it.


        Report this

        00

      • #
        MattB

        Hobart is a surprisingly dry capital. Perth average = about 800-850mm. Hobart average = about 650 (a few inconsistent sources on web sorry). Melb is also around 650.

        The difference is they tend to get it all year (Jan and Jun in melb and hobart pretty much the same +/- 10mm), wheras Perth gets 20 times as much rain in winter as summer.


        Report this

        00

  • #
    stevo

    (… in a texan drawl ..) What we need, see, is a war, a war on Winter !!


    Report this

    00

  • #
    fenbeagleblog

    Deaths in UK too, because the Huhne Huh has a black heart….Oh the Huh manity!!!

    http://fenbeagleblog.wordpress.com/2011/11/15/the-huh-who-spoilt-christmas/


    Report this

    00

  • #

    I read an article a while back where geneticists said that about 73k years ago, the human species almost became extinct. That as few as 1000 pairs of human survived. The cause? Volcanic winter (Toba blew). Now that does not mean that cold kills humans, but it does provide a greater link than the current warmist conventions.


    Report this

    00

  • #
  • #
    pat

    John James -

    BBC’s CAGW agenda is taking big hits in multiple threads on Bishop Hill…

    http://www.bishop-hill.net/


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Crakar24

    This is a little of topic,

    I want to put all this into perspective,

    Firstly the question how long do we have left?

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/rapture_watch/

    The world was supposed to end or will end on the following dates:

    2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2026, 2029 or 2046, according to a series of expert observations, see the above link for more detail about each date.

    As such our beloved PM made this statement:

    JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, you said that you want the debate to be informed by facts, but twice there Lenore asked you what your advice was one the net effect of our action, taking into account action or lack of action in the rest of the world. Will you provide that fact?

    PM: We’re one of the 20 biggest polluters on the planet. Per head of population, we are the biggest generator of carbon pollution per head of population in the developed world. That means we have to act.

    Is the rest of the world acting? Well, we’ve been through those facts and figures before, and I’m happy to supply them all again, but, yes, the rest of the world is also acting on climate change and we can’t afford to be left behind.

    See here for full transcript of interview

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/gillard_wont_tell_you_her_tax_wont_stop_any_warming/

    So to sum up so far we have been told by all the professional projectionists and out of body travellers that the end in nigh so in response our PM created a TAX to forestall our horrible deaths by claiming “…..we can’t afford to be left behind”

    So now i give you this:

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/rich-nations-give-up-on-climate-treaty-20111121-1nr1r.html#ixzz1eMtfZdvb


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Mark D.

      Great, with a little luck I’ll live through all of those dates. I just wish I could get a handle on the emotional ups and downs! I mean really…..


      Report this

      00

    • #
      pattoh

      Gee I wish I could get a *.wav of the statement ” We’re one of the 20 biggest polluters on the planet.”

      I am getting a bit tired of listening to “there will be No Carbon Tax…..” as my ring tone.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    RoyFOMR

    “PM: We’re one of the 20 biggest polluters on the planet. Per head of population, we are the biggest generator of carbon pollution per head of population in the developed world. That means we have to act”
    You certainly can Act, Ms PM. No Oscar for sure but you certainly got the next best thing, political control of Australia, its future prosperity and credibility on the stage of developed nations !
    What an incredible performance. Starting with the ‘watch my lips and look into my eyes’ scene where you pulled your audience in with the ‘No Carbon Tax’ script, then moving to that memorable teary and guilt-ridden cry of ‘We’re one of the 20 biggest polluters on the planet’ was close to genius.
    The smooth association of ‘Carbon’ with ‘Pollution’ alongside the collective guilt of ‘per head of population’ transcended genius.
    Ms PM. When you get flung from office by your fellow Australians please do run for the office of the head of the UN.
    You have all the attributes to achieve such a Nobel office.
    A friend.


    Report this

    00

  • #
    val majkus

    Cfact packing for Durban

    CFACT to debunk climate propaganda and provide
    balanced perspective at UN’s COP17 in Durban, South Africa
    Lord Monckton, Marc Morano, Dr. Kelvin Kemm, Dr. Leon Louw, Craig Rucker
    Available for all media

    Ready to rise above personal attacks, innuendo and unbalanced repetition of extreme global warming pronouncements?

    Journalists seeking to improve upon the annual one-sided climate conference propaganda fest, kindly take notice:

    CFACT, the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (an international NGO and veteran of numerous UN conferences) is your go-to source to include balanced, open-minded perspective in your reporting.

    CFACT will lead a learned, witty, well-informed, but unabashedly skeptical delegation to COP17, the UN Conference on Climate Change, November 28 to December 9 in Durban, South Africa. CFACT’s delegation will be available for interviews and media appearances before, during and after COP17.

    “Every December campaigners, bureaucrats and those seeking to cash in on climate, fly to a resort where the media parrots every dire or vitriolic pronouncement no matter how baseless or extreme,” said CFACT’s Craig Rucker who will lead the delegation. “Polls show the public is tired of the hype and wants more. CFACT is ready to clear the air once and for all. Will the media rise to the occasion?”

    Marc Morano, who publishes CFACT’s “Climate Depot” will feature his report “From A-Z” which details a full gamut of failures in the argument for global warming.

    Lord Monckton and Marc Morano both make extremely articulate, informed and interesting guests on television and radio and offer valuable balance for print and online journalism. Kelvin Kemm and Leon Louw will offer unique South African perspectives. Craig Rucker co-founded CFACT well over two decades ago and offers a wealth of public policy experience.

    Global warming science and policy is anything but settled. CFACT looks forward to engaging in a balanced, civil, informed and genuine dialogue in Durban.

    More details as well as contact information in Durban will be forthcoming at http://www.CFACT.tv. Comment and news also at http://www.CFACT.org, http://www.CLIMATEDEPOT.com & http://www.CFACT.eu.

    - # # # -
    ________________________________________
    Countdown to COP17 = 7 days. Help CFACT make the case: No UN climate treaty in Durban!

    Support CFACT as it sends a team of delegates to the upcoming UN climate conference in Durban, South Africa, where we will fight attempts to push through dangerous and costly new international agreements on global warming.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      The Black Adder

      You beauty!!
      Lord Monckton and Co. at Durban sticking it up those eco-nazis. I can hardly wait.
      I wonder how much coverage they will get back on OZ MSM, I can just imagine Kochie interviewing Lord Monckton for some truth! Ha.!
      Just on Durban…
      Let us hope Australia is not so silly to sign anything that would endanger our fiscal health.
      Surely not, would they?


      Report this

      00

  • #
    MattB

    Seriously just look at the graph.

    Fact: Australia is warmer than NZ
    Fact: Australia has same characteristics as NZ in terms of more deaths in winter than summer.
    Reasonable Conclusion: If NZ got warmer the same number of excess winter deaths would occur.


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Bruce of Newcastle

      Matt – Yes you are indeed correct. NZ excess deaths are presently 5.5%, Australia’s is 5.2%. If NZ got warmer it would stand to reason the 5.5% would fall to 5.2%. In such case both would have 5.2% excess winter deaths.

      Never let the scale of the graph fool you – that is window dressing, the data and the statistics are the real thing. Otherwise all graphs can be a hockey stick if you choose the scaling colourfully.


      Report this

      00

  • #

    In study after study, it’s clear that more people die in the colder months than in the rest of the year.

    How did they determine the deaths were related to temperature rather than the amount of daylight?


    Report this

    00

    • #
      Truthseeker

      What are you suggesting? People don’t die of hyperthermia, instead they die of hyperdarknia? The logic free darkness that you surround yourself with is only lethal to intelligent thought, not to life itself.


      Report this

      00

  • #

    @Truthseeker, So you think driving at night is as safe as driving during the day do you?


    Report this

    00

  • #

    [...] that a warmer world will increase deaths from extended heat waves, but he failed to mention that more people actually die in the winter than in the summer.  Seems cold is far more serious than heat, and this appears to be true even for more temperate [...]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    cynthia allingham

    One reason why mortality is higher in the winter is because Vitamin D levels are lower. It takes 5000 IU’s of vitamin D a day to raise the vitamin D in your blood to summer levels.


    Report this

    00