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By Jo Nova
If man-made climate change does anything at all, it makes Global Disasters tamer
Humans produced 980 billion tons of CO2 in the last 32 years, yet global losses due to weather related damage are shrinking as a proportion of our economy.
Despite there being more humans on Earth than ever before, with more buildings, farms, and factories just waiting to be wrecked by bad weather, somehow global weather disaster losses are not as large a part of our economy as they used to be.
All those extra houses, tractors and cars are sitting-ducks for storms, floods, and hailstones, yet the “climate crisis” is doing less damage to our GDP than it used to when CO2 levels were much lower.
Back in 1990 global CO2 levels were just 355ppm, now it’s more like 417ppm.
Roger Piekle Junior investigated the economic losses of weather disasters for the last three decades. He found that when losses were adjusted for inflation, and measured as a proportion of global GDP, damages were shrinking.
Naturally this tells us nothing at all about what drives the climate, but shows the prophesies are bonkers, and the relentless weather porn on the news is like […]
By Jo Nova
43% fewer cyclones is a good thing, right?
Using the same ClimateChangeTM reasoning the UN Secretary General uses, it’s clear fossil fuel use dramatically reduces the number of dangerous cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean. A new study revealed an astonishing 43% decline in the number of equatorial cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980) when fossil fuel use was vastly reduced. The researchers also point out that this is especially interesting because “the Indian Ocean basin has warmed consistently and more than any other ocean basin.” Could it be that warmer oceans are not necessarily terrible?
The study looked at the Low-Latitude Cyclones (LLC) that originate near the equator in the North Western Indian ocean. These LLC’s are smaller but intensify more rapidly than other cyclones, giving people less time to prepare. In 2017 LLC Ockhi caught forecasters off guard, travelled 2,000 kilometers and caused the deaths of 884 people in Sri Lanka and India.
This is obviously a benefit for the billion poor people who live around the Bay of Bengal. The researchers however, for some reason do not call for an increase in fossil fuel emissions. Instead they looked for and found […]
Children won’t know what a cyclone is
Hurricane activity, after human emissions and CO2 levels reach highest ever recorded, is now close to lowest ever recorded.
Based on a trend starting in 2019 major hurricanes may disappear entirely by 2035. What if Net Zero means “no cyclones”?
h/t ClimateDepot and NotalotofPeopleKnowthat
Spot the effect of Chinese coal plants on global hurricane frequency.
@RogerPielkeJr
If the situation were flipped, try to imagine that the media would not write headlines like “Hurricanes near highest level ever recorded” and “Signs of Climate change seen in near record hurricane season”, or “Worst Cyclone season for thirty years!
Here’s The Guardian a year ago. But it could have been Forbes, The New York Times, the Washington Post. All of them..
The Guardian
It’s just one more Redpill moment to share with friends.
REFERENCES 2022 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Accumulated cyclone energy: Wikipedia 9.9 out of 10 based on 41 ratings […]
It’s the usual apocalyptic headline, hyped from a press release smoked out of a Nature paper, which was pumped from a climate model:
“Climate change already causing storm levels only expected in 2080”
An Israeli study published on Thursday found that climate change is already causing a “considerable intensification” of winter storms in the Southern Hemisphere to a level not anticipated until 2080.
It’s bleak I tell you:
“New data reveals climate change might be more rapid than predicted”
In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with current storm observations. Their discovery was bleak: It became clear that storm intensification over recent decades has already reached levels projected to occur in the year 2080.
Yet again we see true mastery of confirmation bias at work: When the climate models underestimate things it means doom is coming faster. When they overestimate things, it means the equipment is faulty. What would 28 million radiosondes know?
There must be 1,000 permutations of climatoid factors that could be measured across regions of the Earth, but Lo — there has been an intensification of Winter Mid-Latitude Storms in the Southern Hemisphere! Not summer storms, spring storms, […]
Multiple Cyclones, Fires, Floods and Heatwaves striking Australians at same rate for last 55 years
Gissing et al looked at insurance losses and plotted all the times multiple disasters piled up on each other in a three month period in Australian history. Despite the monster headlines and three quarters of all human CO2 emissions occurring since 1966 there was no trend.
Three new studies affirm there has been no significant change in natural disasters, precipitation, or bushfire across Australia for the last several decades.
Kenneth Richard, NoTricksZone
From the paper:
“Here we utilise an Australian natural disaster database of normalised insurance losses to show compound disasters are responsible for the highest seasonal financial losses. … There has been no temporal trend in their frequency since 1966. “
The predominant and most predictable driver of climate-related disaster events is not anthropogenic global warming, or CO2 emissions, but the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Bad things happen:
Global levels of CO2 rose from 320 to 405ppm and made no difference to Compound disasters.
h/t Neville and El Gordo
REFERENCE
Gissing et al (2021) Compound natural disasters in Australia: a historical analysis, Environmental Hazards, […]
Here’s a problem coal fired plants don’t need to worry about.
Sydney’s ‘catastrophic’ hailstorm happened on Thursday, the damage bill said to top $125 million. How much of that damage is to rooftop Solar PV? The last massive hail storm in Sydney was in 1999 — but there were hardly any solar panels then.
From SBS News
There are wild scenes and images everywhere.
Worst Sydney hailstorm in 20 years declared catastrophic
Jessica Cortis and Sascha O’Sullivan, The Australian
At least 50,000 homes remain without power in northern Sydney and more than 1000 calls for help are waiting to be responded to by State Emergency Services after Sydney and the NSW central coast were yesterday rocked by the worst hailstorms in almost 20 years.
Before anyone yells “Climate Change”, Reader, Pat, found stories about hail the size of Eggs in Sydney in November 1929. Hail the size of Tennis Balls fell on Reids Creek near Brisbane in 1934 and hail the size of Tea Cups fell on Brookville in 1902. Paddington had “ice inches deep” on Nov 1, 1931. There are scores more Hail-the-size-of… Maybe building 2 million solar panels on a continent with […]
This Week In 1926
Hurricanes aren’t what they used to be.
Tony Heller at RealClimateScience found a photo of what happened when “an actual category four hurricane hit Miami” — as opposed to an almost Cat 6 that became an almost Cat-Nothing.
What Category Four destruction can look like.
At one point Florence was “Becoming The Strongest Storm to Ever Make Landfall North of Florida” and the “costliest ever to hit The US.”
Soon children won’t know what real storms are.
Hundreds of Hungry Children walk amid City Ruins
Imagine if this happened in 2018. The outrage, the scandal. Impeach Trump Now.
On the other side of the world on Sept 20th 1926, The Melbourne Herald reported:
Click to enlarge
Thankfully we have and do things better now.
The people of Miami didn’t have satellites or TV or helicopters or mobile phones, or perhaps any phones.
Apocalypse 1926
“Hundreds of children separated from their families and hungry, their health endangered by the scarcity of water and the lack of sanitary facilities, are wandering among the ruins of Miami City today.
The tornado which wrecked the place at the week-end, twisting concrete steel buildings on […]
Cropped from The Great Storm by Goodwin Sands, 1703
While we soak in storm footage this week, imagine this storm!
Back when CO2 levels were ideal, the UK was hit by a monster nine-day storm: at least 8,000 dead, maybe as many as 15,000 people. Some 2,000 chimney stacks were blown down and 4,000 oak trees were lost in the New Forest alone. About 400 windmills were destroyed, with “the wind driving their wooden gears so fast that some burst into flames”. The worst toll was probably on ships — with some 6,000 sailors thought to be lost. As many as 700 ships were heaped together in the Pool of London, one ship was found 15 miles (24 km) inland. A ship torn from its moorings in the Helford River in Cornwall was blown for 200 miles (320 km) before grounding eight hours later on the Isle of Wight.
Back then, people blamed the “crying sins of the nation” and saw it as punishment by God. The government declared 19 January 1704 a day of fasting, saying that it “loudly calls for the deepest and most solemn humiliation of our people”. Apparently, it remained a topic of preachy […]
At least nine dead in the North East of the US after a savage storm dubbed “Riley”. Nearly 2 million people are without power. Airlines canceled more than 3,000 flights.
Waves hitting the shore in Scituate, Massachusetts. Photo from @BrynnCNN
Friday afternoon’s high tide in Boston was the third-highest observed tide on record, according to the National Weather Service.
March Brings the Most Variety of Extreme Weather in the U.S.
Jon Erdman argues that March in the US is notorious for storms due to jet streams and a mix of warmer humid air paired with cold winter air. His impressive list of previous March extreme weather is a good antidote to the “Climate Change” claims coming in 3, 2, 1 ….
The deadliest March snowstorm was the infamous Blizzard of 1888, which dumped 40 to 60 inches of snow in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, wind-whipped into drifts which topped some homes. Four hundred were killed in the storm and its cold aftermath.
Here are a sampling of other notable March snowstorms:
Late March 1987: Three-day blizzard produced gusts to 78 mph at Dodge City, Kansas and Altus, Oklahoma. Pampa, Texas, picked up 20 […]
” The Bomb Cyclone isn’t a winter hurricane — just a bad storm with good branding” — Vox
A “Bombcyclone” off the East Coast of the USA is verging on, or has broken a record for the fastest drops in pressure. It’s now at 965mb. It’s not a bomb, nor a cyclone, just a common winter storm. Though this one is a bad one which has already dumped snow on Florida– “most snow in three decades”. The hastag #BombCyclone is exploding.
Also known as a Blizzard, the National Weather Service forecasting winds as high as 70 miles per hour (113 km per hour), and more than 3,300 flights have been cancelled. — Reuters
BombCyclone, NE USA, Jan 4th.
Record breaking?
Rarely do you get to see such perfection w/ the structure of a winter storm. Running out of adjectives for this one. Our blizzard has dropped 54 mb’s in 24 hours, making it not only a “meteorological bomb,” but one of the fastest stengthening winter storms in modern history. — @WeatherOptics
Roy Spencer explains the Bomb term:
The term “bomb” was coined by meteorologist Fred Sanders in 1980 to refer to a non-tropical low […]
It was all yellow: A warning was in place for the whole of Victoria.
Massive flooding forecast across “whole state”:
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned an “unprecedented” amount of rain is expected to fall in Victoria over a three-day period.
Asked to rate the storms out of 10, senior forecaster Mr Williams said: “I’ll take the punt and say it’s a 10 for Victoria.”
He said the most recent rain in a short period of time in Melbourne was 100-200 millimetres (in 2005 and 2011) and on both occasions: “it paralysed transport routes in the city.”
Get out your sandbags!
Events were cancelled, and the Premier of Victoria told people not to “have a big night on the town” in preparation.
The city was told to bunker down for an “absolutely massive” rainfall event over the weekend …
“Half the inhabitants of Melbourne have never ever seen anything like this,” the Bureau of Meteorology’s senior forecaster Scott Williams said on Thursday.
“It is an event that poses a threat to life.”
Not so much a flood of rain, but there was a flood of text messages:
[…]
Hurricane Irma is a big bad storm, like other big bad storms. Six awkward facts: It’s only the 7th most intense at landfall in US history. It formed over water that was two degrees cooler than normal, 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995, and 2005 had more Accumulated Cyclone Energy by Sept 10. In 1933 two hurricanes hit the US in just 24 hours In 1893, 1909, 2004 there were three Cat 3+ landfalls in US (blame climate change). NOAA itself says there’s no evidence anyone can detect that greenhouse gas emissions have an effect on hurricanes.
Not to be stopped by a lack of any scientific connection, climate druids are out in force finding fingerprints in every storm. Like all the great witchdoctors of history, Big Storms are a chance to pump fear and sell their services.
Tim Flannery is up with other great scientists like actress Jennifer Lawrence:
Graham Lloyd, The Australian:
Oscar-winning actor Jennifer Lawrence said Harvey and Irma were signs of “Mother Nature’s rage and wrath” at the US for electing Trump to the presidency and not believing in man-made climate change.
The Tim Flannery-backed Climate Council declared: “Fingerprints of climate change all […]
UPDATE #4: Now Cat 2, crossed the coast, winds 105 mph (165 km/h) and 942 mb. Slowing down, but hurricane force winds are still covering an area 80 miles from the eye. Hurricane Jose is Cat 3, 120 mph, 956 hPa. Moving at 14 mph.
UPDATE #3: Late Sunday night Australia time (Sunday morning US 11AM) Official advisory updates are here. #46 says 130mph, with lowest pressure 933 hPA . Watch news come in on twitter #IRMA. Blackouts across Miami — over 1 million without power. Storm surges. Streets turning into rivers. Waterspouts off the east coast of Florida.
For comparison:
A few hurricanes that have hit Florida Hurricane Year hPa Speed mph Fatalities Labor Day 1935 892 160 160 Camille 1969 900 175 259 Andrew 1992 922 145 65 Katrina 2005 902 175 1,245–1,836
Katrina is listed as 920 and 902 hPa on different wiki pages. (PS: Judging by the map on this post, Camille and Andrew did not hit Florida. Hmm. Wikipedia?)
UPDATE#2: Sunday morning Australia time. Irma now aCat 3, up to a Cat 4 again, savaging Cuba and weakening as it loses moisture being half over land. It is […]
Hoping for the best for everyone affected. Irma is a mega-blender, may set all time record windspeed for Atlantic storm, and on the way to Florida by Sunday. On twitter the hastag: #Irma
Just as man-made climate change usually causes long droughts in hurricanes, this month it causes #&@Hurricanes*$&*! Not just Irma, but Jose as well.
h/t Ben Pile @clim8resistance
Ryan Maue: Hurricane expert, skeptic, estimates Irma is so fast, it ought to be called a Cat #6. “Simple physical arg for Category 6 at 170-knots (Haiyan) is power or destructiveness is v³ in knots = 2-times v³ at 140-knots.”
In an update Maue predicts 190mph: “Based on near perfect environment for #IrmaHurricane to intensify, expecting a peak of 900 mb central pressure & 190 mph in next 24-36 hrs.”
Radar simulation from NOAA’s flagship hurricane model (HWRF) for Category 5 Hurricane #Irma for next 5-days. pic.twitter.com/MUtYybVjHV
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 5, 2017
Prepare to be told your car causes Hurricanes. Keep these Climate Depot points handy — Hurricanes: 1) NOAA: ‘It is premature to conclude (AGW has) already had a detectable impact on’ hurricanes & 2) NOAA: U.S. Record 11 Years Without Major (Cat 3+) […]
Spot the effect of man-made CO2 in this graph.
Terror, terror I tell you — as the accumulated energy of cyclones in the southern half of the planet reaches a new low, far below anything seen in records that go back to 1971.
From the Daily Caller, and @Ryan Maue
Meteorologist Ryan Maue of Weatherbell Analytics noted tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere for the 2016-2017 season is the “quietest on record, by far” based on records going back nearly five decades.
So far, the Southern Hemisphere has seen 13 named storms, including four hurricane-strength storms. Only two of those storms became major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, according to data compiled by Colorado State University.
I don’t think Al Gore will be mentioning this in his inconvenient advertising.
h/t GWPF
9.4 out of 10 based on 73 ratings
Greedy Green Hubris gone wrong? It took months of bad choices to achieve this Gold-Star Moment in Bad Management:
Tasmania’s state-owned Hydro-electric power generator could face legal action for damages after admitting it cloud-seeded in or near water catchments the day before disastrous flooding, although heavy rain was forecast.
Tasmania shut their only fossil fuel power plant in August last year, and relied on renewable energy and one sole Basslink electricity cable to mainland Australia. The cable was supposed to be a back up supply but was bringing in 40% of Tasmania’s electricity, and it broke in December. But a green and greedy approach in Tasmania meant that the state had already run its dams down to 26% levels by selling too much electricity to the mainland at high “renewable” subsidized prices. That was a low level at the start of summer, normally a drier season in Tasmania. After the Basslink cable broke, the dam levels fell to a precipitous 13%, so fast that the green state had to bring in diesel generators just to keep the lights on. They also switched back on the Tamar Gas plant in late January. So much for being the “100% […]
Collaroy Beach 1967
…
Seas Pound Beachfront, Collaroy and Manly. Weds 6th Sept 1967
“…at Collaroy, heavy earth-moving equipment is standing by to prevent the huge seas from further undermining home units and a house which has been in danger for several days.”
Roger Franklin at Quadrant, wrote about a time When weather was just weather, and a Collaroy Storm of 1945.
Houses washed away, Collaroy Beach, 1945
Weds June 13, 1945.
..
Weds, June 13, 1945
14 Deaths in NSW Storms
Source: Houses Washed Out to Sea.
Blame climate change, without blaming climate change
The climate scientists are telling us that there will be less of this type of winter storm. But all the other experts, planners, engineers — get their moment of glory in the media to tell us that climate change will make this worse. In such a way does a media marketing team (like, say, the ABC) convey the sense of alarm, even when their favourite experts are actually saying the opposite.
Here’s Karl Braganza, head of climate monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology, in the SMH, saying that this is […]
Massive storm across Australia’s East Coast — 3 dead, 3 missing. Nearly half a meter of rain fell on Wooli (469mm) in 24 hours. Record rain and flooding occurred in NSW, Victoria, and Tasmania. Sympathies to victims and their families.
Houses left hanging as gardens and a pool disappear.
ABC 7:30 Report
There is a lot we could say, but for the moment, marvel at the government brain that bans unauthorized sandbags, but taxes people to stop the storms.
The Big-gov solution — fine residents a quarter of a million dollars if they use sandbags.
[The Australian] Families whose multi-million-dollar Sydney homes were last night beginning to break away in another king tide could have faced fines of up to $250,000 if they even used sand bags to try to protect their properties.
Houses at Collaroy have been under threat since at least 1974 but the council has failed to build a sea wall or pump sand on to the beach because of environmental concerns and a belief that it was spending public money for the benefit of private landholders.
Or make that a million dollar fine:
Planning Minister […]
Cyclones down the memory hole?
July 1935, Click to enlarge | Trove
A weak tropical cyclone has formed off the Solomon Islands, and the BOM is reporting that there has never before been a July cyclone in the Queensland region. But Warwick Hughes has already posted up details showing that there have been quite a few cyclones in July. The cyclone is hardly extraordinary, and certainly not “historic”, but what about the BOM?
Forecaster David Grant on the ABC:
“We’ve never had a July tropical cyclone in the Queensland region before.
Australia has only had one other officially declared July cyclone, which formed off Western Australia in 1996.
The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30.”
The July cyclone “first” scores headlines in both The Australian and The Courier Mail. “Queensland weather forecasters record first cyclone in July “. But it’s wrong. Commenter Siliggy on Warwick Hughes site found a HardenUp link listing cyclones and storms in Queensland. Some of the older July cyclones listed below may not qualify as “cyclones” under the new scale, but some clearly did — and rather than being far to the north near […]
Too much panic is never enough. Fran Kelly asks Stephen O’Brien, lawyer and UN official, about that the effects of climate change which are “already being felt”. She does not blink when his answer includes more frequent and more severe tsunamis. His qualifier… It’s not a question of “if”, but “when”.
Yes, yes, this is “best and brightest” ideas from around the world, apparently.
ABC Radio National
Fran Kelly: “Give us a sense of the effects [of climate change] which are already being felt in our region and discussed at this conference.” (at 1 minute)
Stephen O’Brien: “The Pacific Region, and particularly the Pacific Island countries whose land, as you rightly say, are the ones just above sea-level, are the ones that really do have the greatest challenge when it comes to climate change effects on humanitarian need, with the regularity of cyclones, tropical storms, and tsunamis coming through [at 1.30 minutes]. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when. And we see that [these] effects of climate change seem to be exacerbated so that they are more frequent and even at times more severe…”
ABC gives free advertising for “the cause” […]
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