Another day — another setback for the Mega Green Hydrogen Dream
The The Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) started at 6GW, grew to 11GW and then to 26GW as the mania spread. Such was the vision — it would produce five times the power of the whole Western Australian grid system. It would be the star of “exported renewable energy”.
Once pitched as the largest renewable project in the world — the fantasy is that 1,753 wind turbines, and nearly 11,000 megawatts of solar power will fill 6,500 square kilometers of the Pilbara in Northwest Western Australia.
The cable plan of 2018 to Jakarta and Singapore
Originally, the plan was to build a giant DC undersea cable to Jakarta or Singapore, but when that didn’t work they decided it would churn out 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen and 9 million tonnes of ammonia every year for export to Asia. The project was so ambitious they were going to have to build a whole new small town on the coast, with it’s own desalination plant — because rainfall is so low. “We need to have lakes” he said. Sure.
Funny how the same thing that makes a site great for solar power is exactly the reason the area is largely uninhabited, sparsely farmed and thus “available” for acres of solar panels. (Things like this are just another hidden cost of collecting “free” solar power).
BP controlled a whopping 63% of the AREH and while it still “believes wholeheartedly in the project”, it will take its money and run far, far away. Clearly, it doesn’t “believe” it’s profitable.
Not long ago, bizarrely, for an oil company, BP had a target to cut its own oil production by 40% from 2019 levels by 2030. Not surprisingly this led to an existential crisis where in February it was on the brink of being a takeover target. It’s now planning to reopen Libyan oil and gas fields instead.
The AREH project may still theoretically go ahead. (The other parties haven’t pulled out yet). But green projects are being cancelled all over the world. Just in the last week, Andrew ‘twiggy’ Forrest dropped plans to spend $900 million on hydrogen in Arizona, and confirmed that the billion dollar Gladstone PEM50 hydrogen project would definitely not proceed.
Things are so bad, the Labor government has even asked “Twiggy” for the money back.
But if (when) the Pilbara mega project falls over, it will do Australians a favour. As well as the subsidies, the project also needed a 260km transmission line called the Pilbara Green Link, which taxpayers would have to pay for, at a likely cost of a billion dollars or so.
BP walks away from epic $55bn Pilbara hydrogen dream
By Colin Packham and Brad Thompson, The Australian
“…in a statement on Thursday, BP said the project does not align with its current focus although it continues to believe wholeheartedly in the development.”
“Despite BP’s withdrawal, its holding was 63 per cent, the project’s remaining partners appear to be pushing ahead.”
The costs of hydrogen are obscenely high:
“In June, InterContinental Energy conceded today’s cost for delivering green energy was estimated at between $8 and $11 a kilogram, exceeding the price of rival energy sources it aimed to unseat. It expected green hydrogen costs to eventually fall to about $4 a kilogram, but even at those levels experts said it was unviable.”
Hydrogen is “The valley of disillusionment” says Portuguese Energy chief
The AREH project is symbolic of the bad news for hydrogen around the world:
Green hydrogen retreat poses threat to emissions targets
The gap between ambition and reality in Europe shows the extent of the reset happening within the industry, said Jun Sasamura, hydrogen manager at research company Westwood Global Energy.
Only about a fifth of planned hydrogen projects across the European Union are likely to come online by the end of the decade, he said. That equates to roughly 12 GW of production capacity against an EU target of 40 GW, Westwood Global Energy data shows.
Does any customer, anywhere, want to spend a dollar more to buy “Green Hydrogen”?
What can you say? We told em so.
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In the US “green” is a synonym for money.
I am only speaking here about the U.S. That actually is the green scam. It is money laundering, kickbacks, extortion, bribes and plain grift to funnel money to Democrat donors. The Democrat base is composed of low information voters who actually believe in windmills, solar and other 1,000 BC “technology.”
If any electricity or power is produced it is merely by accident and then not for long before whatever project was built, collapses or is shut down.
That is government, but companies can be just as idiotic when they choose a Woke Leftist to run their respective companies into the ground. BP was run by a Woke Leftist lunatic. The board finally removed him. Stellantis and General Motors were/are run by the same Woke idiots who said we are going 100% electric only to have to face the music and halt their ambitions. Both have now abandoned their poorly thought out nonsense before their companies went under.
There is no shortage of stupid corporate management but eventually you can only lose so much money before the Board or their shareholders rebel.
Similarly, you can only be so ideologically nuts until the voters at least in America replace the loony Communist in charge with someone who puts a stop to it. We are blessed nation to have Mr. Trump, who was once a Democrat but apparently went into some type of recovery program. I can put up with his bombast and indiscretions in order to have my country back.
Hope Canada and Australia do likewise eventually.
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The Hertz boss was given heave ho having cost them a fortune in battery hire cars nobody wanted to hire – come on, range anxiety is bad enough in your own country let alone abroad – cost more to maintain and lost money on disposal.
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This the train wreck we have been predicting for at least the last 15 years.
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All those panels, all those turbines.
And just one cyclone.
The question wasn’t IF, it would have been when.
Would you build a power station to use Hydrogen if you thought your SINGLE point of supply could be wiped out by a storm that could hit, likely as often as every 10 years?
All the eggs in one, (storm prone), basket.
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Anyone with a functioning brain knew it was never going to happen. Same with the proposed windmills through central west QLD. Bunch of spivs
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To build wind turbines and solar panels on such a scale in the Pilbarra is utter madness. The whole area is prone to Cyclones. Someones or some people at BP have woken up in time to end the madness before it relly took off to eventually crash and burn.
The BP Shareholders for one will be very happy that BP is going back to its core businness. Other Oil Majors are doing the same.
Reality wins out once again.
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another problem they have ignored is the Pilbarra dust which sticks to every nook and cranny and the amount of water needed to keep them clean and working is huge….the cost of cleaning will be prohibitive.
We had service vehicles working in the Pilbarra and we had to cut and polish the duco to remove the dust
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.And always ask the Andrew Bolt question, how much does it cost and how much will it reduce future temperatures by 2050 or 2100?
Will it be 0.0000001c or 0.00000001c?
Aussie taxpayers would like to know.
Certainly China and the NON OECD will be very happy and are laughing all the way to their banks.
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As with every situation involving the nut jobs of the Left, the giveaway question to be answered is always, “Cui bono?” Who is the main beneficiary.
And the answer is invariably the same – the corporate gangsters of Davos.
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It defies understanding that people actually think hydrogen and ammonia are viable transport fuels.
They are dangerous and difficult to handle and have very special materials requirements. They are absolutely not suitable for consumer (or nearly any) use.
These fuels were or are even a nightmare for NASA to use such as in hydrogen for rockets and liquid ammonia as was used in the X-15 program of the 1960’s.
But it doesn’t have to make sense. That’s not its purpose. Just follow the money trail.
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David, we presently have the Vic government giving us ads proclaiming how renewable gas is helping with the energy transition. Perhaps you’ve also seen them? Been watching TdeF (the real one, not the valued commentator on this blog) and have been subject to these ads. Did a quick investigation. So, the intention is to blend methane (from biodigestors somewhere in the state) into our main gas supply in Victoria, but it also mentions hydrogen. Not sure how hydrogen? Perhaps they were going to buy it from BP or Twiggy. Basically, as always, just telling a bunch of lies.
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My bike group of older riders has been the Tour de Farts for the last three decades. So expert that it can take seven such senior very qualified consultants advising on how to fix a flat tyre. And I follow the real Tour de France avidly. Amazing feats at 30km/hr up 10-15% gradients for kilometers. I can only assume they weigh nothing, 60 to 65kg. And rides averaging 50km/hr including hills. The physics of the peloton is amazing, like ducks in flight.
[Can we take the Tour de France to the unthreaded please! – Jo]
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TdeF, I’m trying to read while enjoying a cuppa. My tablet screen now needs a clean!
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“Just follow the money trail.”
The money trail takes the cash for green hydrogen from Andrew Forrest back to the government
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Best to make a hydrocarbon based fuel from protons derived by the electrolysis of water.
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oePIaBHeB8g?feature=share
US$65/BoE is the target.
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I think BP started to take a reality check after Dr Koonin joined their company and finally started to check the data about Green Hydrogen + Toxic W & S etc and the horrendous costs involved.
Ans of course a SFA return for their shareholders. But the other loonies still hoping to get a return, will take a few more months or perhaps a year or two before they start to wake up. The remaining shareholders should think and only invest in real BASELOAD energy ASAP.
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Like Tulip Mania, destined to collapse when investors realise they’re
holding an unnaturally priced asset.
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And while we wait for the inevitable cyclone, let’s think about the build up/ wet season, when it’s cloudy for weeks and months on end, all those panels producing two thirds of bugger all, Djakarta on the phone saying it’s too hot here, where’s our power you promised us?
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Apparently H2 will not stay in a clear glass container. That’s too bad. We may need, then, to fake this. See concept but gas, not liquid: https://down-ph.img.susercontent.com/file/sg-11134201-7rdx4-lyeyrt4z6ulwbe
I propose producing displays for science, educational, and similar public places, such as Scienceworks in Melbourne, Powerhouse Museum in Sydney, Center of Science and Industry, Columbus, Ohio or The California Academy of Sciences in San Francisco. There are many such.
These will be a display of see-through containers containing Natural Hydrogen, Green Hydrogen, Gray Hydrogen, blue, pink, yellow, turquoise … Don’t laugh!
https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/energy-explained/hydrogen-colour-spectrum
In front of each we will need an info display card explaining what makes the H2 in each container different from every other one, and why this is thought to be a good idea. The 2025 method and cost of producing each should be included.
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And yet… Twiggy Forrest was in China with Mr Albo spruiking his green energy plans last week, only to scrap a green hydrogen plant in Arizona today.
Forrest is too close to China. He has said trade with the country is MORE important than national security.
He’s determined to press ahead with making his iron ore operations net zero by 2030. Oh, but had to fire 700 people last year from Fortesque to ‘streamline’ business.
Is he about the business of green energy or about the money?
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A bit of both, the new graphene catalyst from China is slashing platinum use in green hydrogen production. Beijing is still open to the idea.
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It doesn’t matter what catalyst you use to make hydrogen from water. You always need to add at least as much energy as you get from burning the hydrogen to make it.
It’s physics. There isn’t a free lunch.
And to make matters worse, not only do you have to make the electrons go to the hydrogen ion to make the target gas but you also have to balance out the oxygen too, making two gases and dumping one of them. What a waste.
If we were really concerned about CO2 then we would all be burning trees. How long will that last? And plants have been efficiently making carbon molecules and oxygen gas for many millions of years. Any benefits achieved fast replacing the less efficient forms. I think nature is better at this than we give credit.
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‘It’s physics. There isn’t a free lunch.’
They have the capacity to experiment and Beijing is happy with a reduction in platinum use. They had already been sourcing and South Africa is a natural fit.
CO2 is a benign trace gas, there is no doubt about that.
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Joannes Leak Cartoon in The Australian today of Twiggy Forrest in China with Mr Albo spruiking his green energy plans
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary
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Brilliant cartoon. A clockwork Twiggy wound up by the Chinese and marching to the beat of his own drum.
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“Forrest is too close to China. He has said trade with the country is MORE important than national security.”
The fool needs to read some WW2 history.
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Electrolysing hydrogen from water using green energy requires more energy input than than the hydrogen gives out from its subsequent combustion. Common sense shows that this is uneconomical. On this basis, green hydrogen is dumb hydrogen.
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Simple ain’t it? Yet billionaire climate crusaders, politicians and supposed academics can’t see what the rest of us can? Blinded by ideology me thinks…
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blinded by the money me thinks
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Sorry Binny, my too frequent bad steering; meant green.
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How about can’t see the trees for the Forrest
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Isnt this a duplicate of the “Suncable” ,.(Cannon-Brooks, Grok) plan ? That Twiggy dumped last year ?
…which seems to have been reborn but without the originals Green Hydrogen facility…
https://www.energyclubnt.com.au/news/13251161
How long before that gets another “review” or dumped completely ?
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Why would anyone buy such electricity? It’s of such low value, being expensive and non-dispatchable, that you’d be struggling to give it away.
And Singapore has plenty of coal, gas, hydro and nuclear energy from neighbouring countries it could use.
They are not stupid.
Also, how much are Aussie taxpayers expected to contribute to this fantasy?
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This Pilbara project began in 2014, so this has been a long time coming. Without Twiggy and Canon-Brookes to be media shills, and without a catchy name it’s flown under the radar for years.
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..I may have spoken too loud ..??
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BP has taken us all for a ride, and it’s not funny !!
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“Green hydrogen was an inflated expectation that has turned into a valley of disillusionment”
Would a better description be a ‘black hole’. Like a neutron star, sucking in all the cash and giving nothing back.
And all to solve problem which does not exist and even if it did, is not man made or even man controllable.
Perhaps we should try Bill Gates idea to block the sun and bring on the next ice age. Now that’s artificial intelligence.
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The only “expectation” from anything “green” is that it will be supported by the ignorant and uneducated for the benefit of the green billionaire subsidy harvesters.
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And Green steel is really ridiculous. The UK no longer makes steel, they just melt old steel in electric arc furnaces. And the Chinese wanted to close them down. The same in Australia where we still have integrated steel making in Whyalla and Port Kembla. There’s a lot of money to be made in closing down all our steel making. For China. We could do with our own MAGA movement.
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WA Labor state government is handing out billions to a new company called Green Steel WA for them to build an electric arc furnaced “Green Steel” Mill in the coal mining town of Collie, WA, to recycle scrap steel into Rebar.
I guess they figure there will be plenty of scrap steel to be recycled from the 3 closed down coal fired power stations in the area, they claim the Steel mill will only run on “renewable” generated electricity. How they’ll filter the Wind/Sun generated electrons from the gas produced ones I don’t know? Besides, with the 1100 MW of reliable, dispatchable coal fired electricity gone from the grid no companies will be able to afford to produce anything.
https://www.greensteelwa.com.au/about-us/
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Trying to find jobs for the coal power plant workers when they shut down the coal power stations there? Collie is very much a Labor stronghold.
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And Australia is the ONLY country in the world to have passed a law prohibiting nuclear power. Smart, eh?
So with a lot of the world’s uranium and largest exports in coal, gas and iron ore, Australia is perhaps the most hypocritical country in the world.
I’m all right Jack seems to be the National sentiment. Even Dubai now has a nuclear power station.
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He is just using the hype cycle model terminology to describe where “renewables” It was often used to describe IT advances that promised the stars and is very suitable for describing the path of just about all the green planet saving projects and technologies.
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About time oil and gas companies listen to their geoscience departments.
Climate science hopelessly politicized. Geological Society of Australia gives up on making any statement
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Trump EPA To Remove “Greenhouse Gases” From List Of Dangerous Pollutants
The Trump administration is acting to overturn a key 2009 Environmental Protection Agency finding used to justify most federal government regulations regarding climate change.
The EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program requires facilities to track and report their emissions (such as carbon emissions) for potential regulation.
There are numerous subsidies tied to EPA climate efforts and emissions rules. These include grants for “green energy” projects and funding for the replacement of more efficient and effective “fossil fuel” based power plants.
Finally, the EPA’s climate target requires a 55% reduction in US greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. This is, of course, an impossible task using existing technology.
Green energy alternatives are nowhere near efficient enough to replace oil, coal and natural gas. The cost would be immense and any future industrial efforts by the US would be crippled.
Furthermore, pervasive cuts would have to be made to the base consumption of food and energy, leading to economic suicide.
Climate control advocates argue that the global population will have to be reduced dramatically to achieve the net zero agenda.
The claim that the Earth is the hottest humans have ever recorded is false.
This is based on “officially recorded” weather records which started in the late-1800s. This is a tiny window in the weather history of the Earth. If we look at the longer term temperature pattern it becomes clear that we are actually living in one of the coldest periods on the planet in the past 500 million years.
The debate over climate change is over.
Climate scientists, driven by the desire for lucrative government subsidies and a lack of professional ethics, have helped to fabricate a grand lie that has now been exposed by core data. Their use of the tiny 140 year window of official temperature records is highly dishonest and their claims of a relationship between carbon emissions and temperature are easily dismissed.
Trump’s reversal of EPA standards and deregulation will help the US economy.
More importantly, it starts the much needed process of removing climate change brainwashing from the federal government’s vernacular. It’s time for western civilization to abandon the climate hoax and move on.
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Thanks OO,
Great news, but I won’t relax until it passes into law.
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Labor asked for the money back? Absolute theatre! Twiggy won’t be handing anything back and they all know it.
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Great article Jo, although you did forget to mention the “blob”. 🙂
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British comedian Brian Colney used the refrain “Mr Blobby, its a puppet” 1992/95. Seems he was something of a prophet!
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Spain and Portugal recently had a sharp lesson in renewable electricity.
Is Australia capable of learning from their experience?
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NO
At least until there is “personal experience”
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If only someone had told them it was a stupid idea!!!!!
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I’m surprised that it’s not a goer for ammonia production, I must say.
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I believe that was part of the original plan ..
It certainly was for the SunCable project, which is why Twiggy was going to build the Electrolyser manufacturing plant in Gladstone…..recently also cancelled .
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“The valley of disillusionment” is Melbourne Demons supporters.
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Only about a fifth of planned hydrogen projects across the European Union are likely to come online by the end of the decade, he said.
Yeah, good luck with that.
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This isn’t wind or solar failing or getting scaled back, this is green hydrogen failing, which is likely a fools errand.
And not needed. BP has huge and growing investments in renewables. They want to scale back from hydrogen. Most of which is dirty anyway.
Most claims about H2 are hype. Especially for transport.
Australia’s transition away from carbon and to renewables continues at speed. Especially now that they kicked the rightwingers out (Trump effect).
South Australia setting the example where in just 16 years, wind & solar have gone from 1% to 71%.
Coal 100% gone. Gas down by 65%.
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1) South Australia to meet state 100% renewables target 5 years early
Latest report from the Australian Energy Market Operator, however, indicates that it might reach that target by 2025/26, five years earlier than planned.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-could-meet-state-liberals-100-pct-renewables-target-5-years-early-31279/
2) South Australia has exceeded its 2030 net zero target, with new greenhouse gas emissions data revealing a 57% reduction in the state’s net emissions compared with 2005 levels.
https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/sa-eclipses-emissions-reduction-target#:~:text=Annual%20data%20just%20released%20in,15%2C821%20kilotonnes%20in%202021%2D22
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