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Expert scientists wrong again: Bumper snow season kicks off in Australia

Year after year they told us it would get warmer, ski seasons would get shorter and children won’t know what snow is. Instead Thredbo in the Australian Alps has just had 125cm of snow, a full 4 feet in 7 days, which some are calling a 54 year record.  Skiers in Australia are thrilled.

Thredbo alpine resort in Australia receives over 125cm (4 feet) of snow in 7 days ahead of its official opening

https://twitter.com/grand_solar/status/1534181676854788097

NSW snow season ‘best in 20 years’ as weather experts’ dire predictions fall flat

Daily Telegraph

In my many years living and working in Thredbo, I have never seen the Village so covered in snow ahead of the June long weekend,” Thredbo Resort general manager Stuart Diver said.

In the year 2000 the world’s top global warming experts at East Anglia University claimed “children just aren’t going to know what snow is” within a few years.

In 2003, a CSIRO report found that the total area covered by snow in Australian mountains could fall by up to 40 per cent.

“By 2020, the average annual duration of snow-cover decreases by between five and 48 days; maximum snow depths are reduced and tend to occur earlier in the year; and the total area covered in snow shrinks by 10-40 per cent,” it stated.

Think tank IPA’s senior fellow Dr Jennifer Marohasy said it had been a cold start to winter but because the Bureau of Meteorology had closed down weather stations and set limits on stations recording cold temperatures, it made comparisons difficult.

As Jennifer Marohasy says, they’ve closed long standing stations, and set limits of minus 10.4 C so if Australia were to break our long time cold records we’ll never even know it. Charlottes Pass in Australia reached minus 23 in 1994. How can we even measure that with thermometers that “stop” at minus ten?

 

9.9 out of 10 based on 93 ratings

95 comments to Expert scientists wrong again: Bumper snow season kicks off in Australia

  • #

    Jo, you surely realise this is merely weather and that only droughts, forest fires, flooding and heat are climate?

    What answer did your met office give for setting low temperatures at an unrealistically hgh level?

    373

    • #
      David Maddison

      See, the anti-energy policies of Australia’s new Government under the leadership of Comrade Chairman Alba-sleazy are already working. He has stopped “global warming”!

      Slight problem however, if you are a wealthy virtue signaling Green Labor or Teal voter you will find that most Australian snow fields are beyond the range of EV’s from the capital cities. You will have to fly your helicopters there.

      411

  • #
    David Maddison

    Incidentally, if you are in Vicdanistan, the closest place to see snow (but not ski) where tobogganing is also possible is Mt Donna Buang.

    I went there last Thursday and it was excellent. Plus there were heaps of lyre birds visible on the side of the road going up the mountain.

    When I went, temperature was 11C at bottom of mountain and 3C at the top, a good demonstration of the adiabatic lapse rate (see below) although it was a little less than expected (but I won’t alter the raw data like climate “scientists”).

    The slightly less than expected lapse might be due to an imperfect car thermometer or if the air was not dry.

    Altitude at bottom, Warburton 159m.
    Altitude at top, 1,250m.
    Total elevation change, 1091m.
    Total temperature change, 8C.
    Typical adiabatic lapse rate in dry air 9.8C/1000m.
    Expected temperature difference, 10.7C
    Observed temperature difference, 8C.

    241

    • #
      b.nice

      Gotta remember, 100% dry atmospheric air is pretty rare. There is nearly always some moisture around.

      H2O is the only atmospheric gas that affects the lapse rate, hence the only real “greenhouse” gas.

      352

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Come, come David; any Climate “Scientist” would tell you that the theory must be true, therefore you must change the facts.
      It is curious that John Tyndall who noted that CO2 (and over 20 other gases) absorbed infrared radiation** in 1860 was a mountaineer and knew about the atmospheric lapse rate. That’s why he said that CO2 would have only a minor effect compared with water vapour. Reasoning that CO2 would be mixed throughout the air and that the change in temperature with height corresponded with loss of humidity.

      **He called them HEAT RAYS as was the general form those days. He also, as a careful experimenter, showed that CO2 rapidly released Heat Rays, so it seems THE SCIENCE of Simon & PeterF dates from before 1860. As far back as when witches were burnt to change the weather?

      191

    • #
      crakar24

      Not having your thumb on the scale during the equipment calibration process as per BOM best practices would account for your erroneous results

      190

    • #
      yarpos

      If you are in Melbourne

      40

  • #
    Klem

    But global warming also causes global cooling, didn’t you know that?

    130

    • #
      Gerry

      Yeah …there’s a global homeostasis effect ….when the northern hemisphere is really really hot the Southern Hemisphere is really really cold.

      60

      • #
        Gerry

        This works well as long as you only get the weather news from your little area of the world of course…..and why would you need anything else ?

        60

      • #
        TedM

        “when the northern hemisphere is really really hot the Southern Hemisphere is really really cold.”
        Something to do with summer and winter.

        00

    • #
      el+gordo

      ‘ … didn’t you know that?’

      The yarn has been going around for awhile, but is unconvincing. The high priests need to explain how a meandering jet stream brings Antarctic weather to Australia.

      21

  • #
    Graham Richards

    So called expert scientists, the CSIRO, the BOM, the ministers of energy, climate change etc are nothing but propagandists that make the most evil propagandist, Joseph Goebels, appear as a total amateur. Add to this list the the organisations which control monetary policies & financial. The IMF etc.of trade & financial sanctions
    Our governments, both Labor & LNP are lapdogs of the globalist UN. the WEF & the Bilderbergers. All three organisations are Marxist tools. Why are Government doing their bidding. We do not get to vote for these organisations yet government insist on applying their policies. These policies apply to western Democracies which are being forced to comply under threat of trade & financial sanctions. The countries not under threat are those with Marxist governments or Marxist sympathy. China, Russia etc spring to mind.

    350

  • #
    Sambar

    I could never understand why ski resorts instaled snow making machinery if the temperature was going to rise. The point being that snow requires temperatures of 0 c or less to a/ form b/ lay on the ground. And of course snow making machinery is powered by the very reason that the snow was going to disappear. Fossil fuels.
    The whole thing was oxymoronic.

    241

    • #
      David Maddison

      When snow making machines were first introduced it was nothing to do with supposed anthropogenic global warming but it was to extend the usability of the lower slopes for longer into the season, an entirely rational reason. The first commercial snow making was in 1952.

      Only in recent years have resorts been conned into spending vast amounts of money (reflected in massive usage costs for the consumer) on snow making equipment based on the “predictions” of failex and non-validated climate “models” of the CSIRO, BoM etc..

      221

      • #
        David Maddison

        Failed, not failex.

        100

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          David, ‘failex’ works – kind of non-specific, non-gender, non-sense word, perfect for these nonsense fail-x times.

          Your Great Australian Blizzard of 2022 has now arrived in the South Island with “snow to sea level” in the deep south (skifield PR teams are ‘overjoyed’) while here in the far north I’m in shorts & T-shirt & bare feet: I’m done with existential freezing. Mind you, Dear Leader Jabcinder arrived in Sydney the other day just as the COLD arrived… surprised she hasn’t claimed it as another of her ‘suck-cess-is’ in her battle with the elements.

          181

          • #
            David Keaveny

            I think failex is a great new word; just as the business world gave us capex (capital expenditure) and opex (operational expenditure(, so the Green world is now giving us failex (failure expenditure).

            As in, expenditure (unnecessary) occurred because of failed models, failed government meddling, failed journalism – you name it!

            351

          • #
            Ross

            You guys are going to cop it for the next week. In my rain forecast app I can see a big red blob over the South Island for days.

            60

          • #
            crakar24

            Hence the phrase cold as a witches tit was born

            80

    • #
      TedM

      Actually snow can form at temperatures above 0C because of the cooling effect of ablation.

      00

  • #
    David Maddison

    From 2012:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-09/climate-change-could-shrink-australia-ski-season-csiro-says/8166372

    The CSIRO’s climate change modelling predicts, under a low-risk scenario, the average snow season across Victoria and some of New South Wales will become 20 to 55 days shorter and, under a worst-case scenario, 30 to 80 days shorter — all but obliterating the 112-day ski season.

    241

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      AND
      2000: ‘Children won’t know what snow is by 2010.’
      Dr. David Viner a senior research scientist at the climate research unit CRU of the University of East Anglia “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a rare and exciting event. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is” Source: The Independent, March 20, 2000
      subsequently modified to 2013 then 2017 (no further Date)

      2012 Enjoy snow now, by 2020 it will be gone
      Environmental Researchers say the end of Australia’s ski culture is in sight, despite one of the best snow seasons in a decade
      The Australian Sept 5, 2012

      With this superb season likely will they can repeat the latter claim?

      201

      • #
        ando

        File that with the polar bear extinction, Himalayas ice free, more cyclones, dams that will never fill, etc, etc.
        Not one doomsday prediction correct. But our politicians throw OUR money at the non problem hand over fist. Climate change is nothing but an excuse to send the middle class back to serfdom.

        10

  • #
  • #
    el+gordo

    The reason we have this unexpected polar blast is a blocking high in the Bight.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

    Eventually BoM will have to concede that its a global cooling signal, there is precedence.

    151

    • #
      el+gordo

      There was a prolonged period of blocking in the Australasian region during the winter and early spring of 1989 which might be associated with La Nina. There was also an enhanced Antarctic polar vortex reported in the same year which may have contributed.

      90

    • #
      Forrest Gardener

      How many times has the BoM ever stated that something,anything is a global cooling signal?

      I would be astonished if such a statement was even part of their vocabulary.

      101

      • #
        el+gordo

        Of course they don’t, so we have to come up with the answer as to how the system works. Blocking will eventually be exposed as a major player, Hubert Lamb mentioned it.

        30

      • #
        el+gordo

        Plain Language

        ‘We survey 23 climate models and show that during winter some models simulate too many blocking events, while others simulate too few, whereas during summer, almost all models simulate too few events to the south of Australia. We also show that with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases we expect there to be less blocking, particularly to the south of Australia and over New Zealand during winter.’ (Patterson et al 2019)

        21

  • #
    David Maddison

    Klaus Schwab student Greg Hunt had previously stopped PM Abbott’s request into a data fraud investigation at the BoM. If there was no data fraud, what were they scared if?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-24/environment-minister-greg-hunt-killed-idea-of-bom-review/6803572

    291

    • #
      David Maddison

      That was a reply to el+gordo at #7.

      70

    • #
      el+gordo

      Admittedly it looks like a fantastic stitch up, but even the best laid plans of mice and men will crumble when the weather changes..

      62

    • #
      Dennis

      David, as usual the motion to commission an independent audit at the BoM by the PM (Abbott) was defeated by whatever majority of the vote in Cabinet.

      If Cabinet Minister Hunt successfully convinced a majority, not matter how small that majority was, it remains a Cabinet decision.

      Unfortunately in my opinion that Cabinet contained a number of left leaning Liberals (LINO left) including Minister for Communications Turnbull who was definitely not a PM Abbott supporter on most issues according to reports.

      61

  • #
    ExWarmist

    ‘As Jennifer Marohasy says, they’ve closed long standing stations, and set limits of minus 10.4 C so if Australia were to break our long time cold records we’ll never even know it. Charlottes Pass in Australia reached minus 23 in 1994. How can we even measure that with thermometers that “stop” at minus ten?’

    Cut to the primary school room.

    “Sir!”
    “Yes, Johnny?”
    “How tall are the students, Sir?”
    “12 inches.”
    “Are you sure, Sir?”
    “Of course I’m sure, Johnny. I used a ruler to measure everyone. The top measurement is 12 inches. Clearly, you’re all 12 inches tall.”
    “But aren’t we taller?”
    “The ruler stops at 12 inches. You can’t possibly be taller than that. If you could be taller, the principal would’ve given me a longer ruler.”
    “But, Sir. I can see-”
    “Enough, Johnny. Don’t believe your lying eyes. The principal knows best.”
    “But-”
    “No, Johnny. Enough with your questions. No go to the corner.”
    (Sotto voce) “Oh, not again.”
    “I heard that, Johnny. Add a week’s detention!”
    Geez.

    If the measurement shenanigans were not so vile – I’d laugh.

    320

  • #
    David Maddison

    That was a reply to el+gordo at #7.

    30

  • #
    Andrew

    Unrelated question. Related to the climate scam, but not this thread.

    Does anyone know what happened to Czech Physicist LUBOS MOTL’s excellent/entertaining “The Reference Frame” blog. Is been down for a month of so and I’m wondering if big pharam or big climate have finally succeeded in having his entertaining blog cancelled.

    If anyone knows if he has started up a new blog I would love to hear.
    Cheers

    100

    • #
      David Maddison

      http://laussy.org/wiki/Blog:Fabrice/Censoring_Lubo%C5%A1_Motl

      Censoring Luboš Motl

      Censorship is going at a speed never seen before in any society that qualifies itself of democratic and remotely believes to hold some amount of freedom and liberties. Some of the recent highlights include censorship of the president of the United States and then in its wake, of a series of other officials, politicians, intellectuals, scientists, artists, etc., in addition to many less known activists. All this happens chiefly on YouTube and Twitter, with a worrying silence from the big majority of people, not to say consent and approval. It went one step further today with direct censorship of someone’s private blog. This is not anecdotical because it’s one thing to monitor a wide-audience platform, with the invalid but at least plausible excuse that you have to play by their rules, and to go after someone’s personal property.

      151

    • #
      John R T

      Ditto!
      Fora month, I get a pop-up: not a registered user – contact owner for permission.
      John, Central Virginia

      70

  • #
    Chris

    Apparently the CSIRO have TWO ski lodges for staff holidays, and they are always fully booked . Perhaps they don’t believe their own modelling.

    201

  • #
    Honk R Smith

    There is known snow, there is known unknown snow, and there is also unknown unknown snow.
    There is also known snow unknown to anyone born in the 21st century.

    181

  • #
    David Maddison

    Does anyone know if the Bureau of Meteorology has been adjusting snowfall data to match the predictions of their non-validated climate “models”?

    100

  • #
    DLK

    Think tank IPA’s senior fellow Dr Jennifer Marohasy said it had been a cold start to winter but because the Bureau of Meteorology had closed down weather stations and set limits on stations recording cold temperatures, it made comparisons difficult.

    and yet:

    “METEOROLOGY ACT 1955 – SECT 6
    Functions of the Bureau

    (2) The Bureau must perform its functions under this Act in the public interest generally…”

    How is “[closing] weather stations and set[ting] limits on stations recording cold temperatures” “in the public interest generally…”?
    in meteorology the public interest can only be served by accurate record keeping

    190

  • #
    DLK

    seems to be some confusion as to whether the role of science is to:
    A. formulate general principles on the basis of observations or;
    B. formulate observations on the basis of general principles.

    151

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      I like things like this.
      Are we sure that that the Universe has principles?
      It/zhe/zsher/they … may be politically Progressive.

      31

      • #
        DLK

        well, now that you mention it,
        it is a general principle of nature/the universe that species are divided into male/female/neuter (sex)
        whereas it is a general principle of linguistics that languages are divided into male/female/neuter (gender)

        20

  • #
    Binny Pegler

    Frosts in areas of Central west Qld for the first time in more than 30 years, fingers cross that we are heading into a 70s style cool wet period.

    111

  • #
    Ross

    Dont worry, “The Conversation” now thinks La Nina will be the normal due to the South Atlantic oscillation. Or could it be that climate goes in cycles and in fact the oceans have a major influencing effect? Maybe that was why the period 1945- 1980 was so cold and wet. Surely not. But hang on, wasn’t CO2 the only major force in determining climate? Those lovely Teal ladies seem to think so.

    171

    • #
      el+gordo

      They are totally wrong, the AMOC stopped when there was a huge amount of freshwater in the North Atlantic, after a large natural dam burst. There is still speculation that this was caused by a cosmic impact.

      The Younger Dryas was essentially confined to the Northern Hemisphere.

      40

    • #
      yarpos

      Wasnt so long ago that the climate illuminati were saying drought was the new normal. They will latch onto anything that will give them funding/15 minutes of fame/an ABC article.

      111

  • #
    David Maddison

    It’s interesting that the Bureau of Meterology thermometers have a minimum but no maximum. Like their alterations of measured data, it only goes in one direction – up – to conform with their non-validated “model” predictions.

    161

  • #
    Zane

    ” Experts wrong again ” says it all, really. When are they ever right? If they really knew anything, they wouldn’t be working for a government salary. They would be hobnobbing with Branson and Musk on a superyacht in the Caribbean and sipping Mai Tais. Instead they warm cheap chairs from Officeworks in small cubicles.

    71

    • #
      crakar24

      An expert is someone who has made every mistake possible in a very narrow field, the problems begin when they start slightly left or right and talking of things they know nothing about, Flannery would be a good example.

      80

  • #
    Dennis

    This “climate change warming tipping point” is a worry, when I took four teenager boys skiing during July school holidays during the 1990s we often arrived in Thredbo Village and there was no snow, but snow producing vehicles working overnight to provide enough cover for the ski lift enthusiasts.

    And here we are in 2022 with over one metre of natural snow on the ground in Thredbo.

    131

  • #
    RoHa

    I’m sure this is warm snow.

    90

  • #
    Simon

    Precipitation is not temperature. The national mean temperature for May was 1.02 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for Australia.

    220

    • #
      el+gordo

      June will be on the cool side.

      70

    • #
      el+gordo

      ‘The national mean minimum temperature for May 1.55 °C warmer than average, the 8th-highest on record for Australia as a whole. Queensland observed its 2nd-highest mean maximum temperature on record for May, and New South Wales its 10th-highest.’ (BoM)

      20

    • #
      David Maddison

      Simon, even if that were true, and I don’t know because the Bureau of Meteorology fraudulently alters the temperature record, so what?

      140

    • #
      DLK

      Precipitation is not temperature. The national mean temperature for May was 1.02 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for Australia.

      leaving aside:
      (1) no records of ocean temperature before 1850
      (2) the unreliability of the terrestrial thermometer record; and
      (3) the total irrelevance of the proposed comparison,

      perhaps, you’d like to inform us all as to what the temperature is supposed to be

      just for context, the following is satire:

      This was the Golden Age that, without coercion, without laws, spontaneously nurtured the good and the true. There was no fear or punishment: there were no threatening words to be read, fixed in bronze, no crowd of suppliants fearing the judge’s face: they lived safely without protection. No pine tree felled in the mountains had yet reached the flowing waves to travel to other lands: human beings only knew their own shores. There were no steep ditches surrounding towns, no straight war-trumpets, no coiled horns, no swords and helmets. Without the use of armies, people passed their lives in gentle peace and security. The earth herself also, freely, without the scars of ploughs, untouched by hoes, produced everything from herself. Contented with food that grew without cultivation, they collected mountain strawberries and the fruit of the strawberry tree, wild cherries, blackberries clinging to the tough brambles, and acorns fallen from Jupiter’s spreading oak-tree. Spring was eternal, and gentle breezes caressed with warm air the flowers that grew without being seeded. Then the untilled earth gave of its produce and, without needing renewal, the fields whitened with heavy ears of corn. Sometimes rivers of milk flowed, sometimes streams of nectar, and golden honey trickled from the green holm oak. (emphasis added) trans AS Kline

      62

    • #
      b.nice

      1961-1990 was the coldest period this side of the Little Ice Age

      Thank goodness its a bit warmer.!

      **Even though we have no reliable enough temperature measures from 1960-1979 in Australia, all been “adjusted” too much.

      And the urban growth since then has been extensive, affecting nearly all surface temperature gauges in Australia

      And of course, the 1880-1910 period was warmer than now.

      So, Simon, your comment is basically totally and completely meaningless.

      41

    • #
      GlenM

      Well, it may have occurred to you that when it is cloudy during the day it is cooler, and warmer at night. Big dog is in bed by 8pm.

      10

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      “Precipitation is not temperature.”

      Nuanced insight.
      So that’s why it snows in the Amazon and rains in Antarctica.
      I learn so much from this blog.

      30

    • #
      Old Cocky

      Ahh, the perils of using measures of centrality without the accompanying measures of dispersion.

      20

    • #
      el+gordo

      Precipitation is entwined with temperature.

      ‘However, as the air warms its water-holding capacity increases, particularly over the oceans. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1C of temperature rise. As such, a world that is around 4C warmer than the pre-industrial era would have around 28% more water vapour in the atmosphere.’ (Carbon Brief)

      00

    • #
      TedM

      “The national mean temperature for May was 1.02 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for Australia.”

      But it’s June Simon.

      00

  • #
    David Maddison

    Given that the sun is the main driver of climate and the sun is a variable star, why is there even an expectation that the climate will never change? It has changed constantly throughout earth’s history and even during recorded history as we can see from the Minoan, Egyptian, Roman and Medieval Warm periods with high prosperity; and cool periods such as the Little Ice Age with famine and disease.

    And the Chinese are well aware of the consequences of global cooling. See https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b8d0f76684970c-pi

    91

    • #
      DLK

      totally correct.
      and the scientific starting point is always the hypothesis that the warming or change is natural.
      no evidence has been adduced capable of rebutting that initial presumption (indeed, much of the cited evidence, such as climate modelling, is not testable and so not even evidence).

      41

    • #
      Honk R Smith

      No, we will stabilize weather.
      And eliminate gender/sex differences … and in America, Republicans.

      (I can’t figure out OZ … who gets cleansed down there? I mean, are the Resilience camps just sitting there?)

      41

  • #

    To be fair we just experienced the largest volcanic eruption since 1912 the has dramatically altered the stratospheric climate. Past large eruptions have also resulted in large snow falls.

    60

  • #
    CHRIS

    The BOM are habitual liars. You could have a national June average of 10 degrees C, and the BOM would use their ACORN – like data to say that this average was the fourth warmest June in history. The BOM should be amalgamated with the CSIRO…at least this might stop them from spewing forth garbage.

    10

    • #
      b.nice

      “at least this might stop them from spewing forth garbage.”

      Or double the amount that they spew. !

      20

  • #

    […] Expert scientists wrong again: Bumper snow season kicks off in Australia […]

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