JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Polling expert explains why polls are junk and why he’s betting on Trump

When a global pandemic meets global scandal

The 900 hp passion of the Trumpers is swamping the pitiful gatherings for Harris-Biden. But how much does that reflect what the 10% in the middle are thinking?

Two experts with great track records predict the winner. One says Trump. One says Biden. One of them is much more convincing than the other.

It’s worth recalling Hillary was bleaching lap tops, and practically having seizures on camera, and she still won 60 million votes just like Donald Trump did. Enthusiam counts but it isn’t everything.

Trump had this election in the bag in January for his State of The Union, then all the normal election rules were tossed into orbit.

Barnes disassembles polling data like a machine

Ciara Haley and George Szamuely talk to renowned litigator and political analyst Robert Barnes about polls and why they are of such limited usefulness.

 This man owns polling analysis. The detail. The details! And all off the cuff…

h/t To WokeBuster and RickWill

One thing I don’t understand is how they know the tally of who has already voted.

Distinguished Professor of History, Allan Lichtman, predicts Biden

For the sake of debate, here’s the man who got all the recent elections right made this prediction before all the corruption came out. He uses a model. Barnes has 10 times the detail. This is dated October 5, and it might as well be  from March.

Would Lichtman predict something different now.

55% of Americans are better off than they were 4 years ago. It would amazing for Trump to lose to one of the weakest, low charisma candidates a major party has ever run. But he is one man against a machine that includes the media, the judiciary, and the Tech Giants and a global pandemic.

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Rating: 8.3/10 (71 votes cast)
Polling expert explains why polls are junk and why he's betting on Trump, 8.3 out of 10 based on 71 ratings

104 comments to Polling expert explains why polls are junk and why he’s betting on Trump

  • #
    ivan

    Any sort of political polls are as useful as climate change computer models – totally useless. Both are based on garbage in giving garbage out in the hope the results will support the accepted view.

    From some of the things I have read pollsters in the states have a better chance of getting people to talk with them than they do here in Europe.

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    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      The polls are made by the media which want you to vote a particular way. They are hoping everyone acts as a herd and goes with the popular opinion (do you don’t have to think for yourself).

      It’s a polling strategy which has become obvious over the years.

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      • #
        PeterS

        In other words, the MSM by and large are playing us for fools. Trouble is they are at least partly correct; there are many fools around. I suspect though the polls are just as bogus as they were prior to the previous US election. Time will tell as usual.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Given the polls do influence weak minded people so easily, it’s another reason why early voting ought to be banned. I hate to think so many who have already voted for Biden might now be feeling (as distinct from thinking since they can’t do that properly) they want to change their vote.

      140

      • #
        David Maddison

        Sadly, in modern Western society most people are weak minded. It was a deliberate plan of the Left to stop the teaching in schools of genuine critical thinking skills and free and open access to information such as real history without the Leftist slant.

        As I have said before, voting should be neither compulsory or universal. Only those people who are net wealth producers, or who are retired but have had a history of paying net taxes should be eligible to vote. I don’t see why people who are welfare dependent for life, usually as a lifestyle choice, should get to vote themselves a transfer via taxes of my money to themselves.

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        • #
          PeterS

          Spot on about our education systems. All they are good at doing these days is to teach students false narratives, how to ignore the truth and how not to think for themselves.

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        • #
          Serp

          Hmm. Setting you firmly on the side of the ant who turns away the starving grasshopper at winter’s onset, a fable which never sat easily in my mind from the day I read it as a child. It’s certainly a point to negotiate around.

          21

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            its a hard call sometimes, however at what point do you stop spoon feeding people who can think for themsleves?

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        • #
          Dean

          I don’t agree at all that most people are weak minded.

          Most people are guarded about revealing their thoughts, in large part because of the stigma of committing the “crime” of not thinking “correctly”, especially about politics.

          Most people can engage in a reasonable discussion when given the chance. The noisy mob on both left and right like to hurl abuse about a persons worth based on holding different opinions. And they very often crowd out the quieter majority when it comes to discussion.

          People’s lack of engagement in highly partisan squabbles does not equate to being weak-minded.

          And in any case, its a ridiculously weak argument to say that the reason you could not win people over to be part of your political coalition (needed to win office) was because they were too weak-minded to get it. They were too dumb to recognise obvious brilliance when it is in front of them.

          The fault in that case always belongs to the person trying to win them over. Think of Hilary’s “deplorables” moment, calling people names is yet to show that it is a strong way of winning their vote.

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          • #

            Even strong minds can be weakened by the breathless repetition of lies designed to promote and reinforce confirmation bias. Goebbels knew this and is how the Nazi’s took control of Germany. It’s otherwise implausible to consider that all Germans were intrinsically weak minded in the early 20′th century.

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            • #
              PeterS

              In that case who is our “Goebbels” today and how do we get rid of him/her, [snip]?
              [lets not go there] ED

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              • #
                GD

                who is our “Goebbels” today and how do we get rid of him/her?

                Not him/her, them.

                Them being all the Australian media except for Sky News and the Australian newspaper.

                In the US, them being all the media except for Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.

                How do we get rid of them? Perhaps by continuing to vote for conservative candidates and parties.

                Or perhaps by, instead of using militancy as the Left do, we use laughter and guffaw at their ridiculous assertions, exaggerations, and outright lies.

                However, perhaps there are too many of them and we are beaten and destined to be downtrodden.

                I fear this is the case.

                A win for Trump will give the world another four years.

                In Australia, unfortunately, Prime Minister ScoMo will continue to play a 50/50 each way game, thus there will be no push back from our nation. We will meekly submit to meeting those odious Paris targets and continue to subsidise renewable energy at huge cost to consumers.

                The ‘Goebbels’ media in Australia, the ABC, is already proclaiming that Daniel Andrews is a hero for ending, albeit gradually, his draconian lockdown.

                Even though all other Australian states have not had to use such harsh lockdowns, according to the ‘Goebbels’ ABC Andrews is a hero, even though it was his administration that caused the second wave.

                It’s a bit like thanking the arsonist who lit the fire around your house for helping you to put it out.

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              • #

                “How do we get rid of them?”

                If the Republicans would agree to just disagree about abortion and recreational drugs, rather than wage a holy war against them, they would never loose. After all, these are about the only ‘liberal’ (freedom/liberty/personal responsibility) policies left in the Democratic platform and the Bernie/Biden manifesto. The rest is all about repressing the many to feign benefit for the few.

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        • #
          Kalm Keith

          David, especially liked the second paragraph and the detail about voter entitlement.

          50

        • #
          Deano

          David Maddison – not only did they banish critical thinking and reasoned logical debate from schools, they replaced it with the type of argument you’ll see on the ABC’s ‘Q & A’ where celebrity endorsement and audience head nodding proves the worthiness of an argument put. Proper debates are rarely seen now.

          The Witch trial scene from Monty Python and Holy Grail is embarrassingly close to the truth of how modern popular opinions are formed.

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          • #
            PeterS

            The sad reality though is most people don’t give a damn and are still happy for the ABC to be funded by us tax payers. Goes to show their agenda to indoctrinate people not to think for themselves has worked very well. Now if only we had a leader with a backbone to reverse that.

            60

    • #
      rowingboat

      Ha, I just watched Mike Graham (London) interview Sebastian Gorka (Trump adviser, Washington D.C.) the day following the 2nd debate (link below). Gorka likened polling to phrenology, using bumps on the skull to predict mental faculties and character traits, useless pseudoscience.

      The entire interview is very interesting, but two points near the end are fascinating to me:

      1) A Trump organisation did a poll of known Trump supporters, people who had actually contributed to the Trump campaign, called them pretending to be a polling company asking them which way they were voting. 40% of their own supporters didn’t say they were voting for Trump because they didn’t want to admit it!

      2) 20-30% of people attending Trump’s rallies are either a former Democrat or have never voted before. The Republican party is registering thousands of people at these rallies.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMGR8mg-ASE

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      • #
        PeterS

        It gives support to the idea that Trump will win by a landslide. Let’s see if that’s the case. One thing I can’t understand is how the Americans can come even close to making Biden President. Perhaps by crook He can become President but not given what I perceive as the American psyche today. If I’m wrong and they do vote for him fairly and squarely to be the next President then in my books Americans have gone stark raven mad and deserve everything Biden will do to them.

        141

  • #
    Penguinite

    Even a robbers dog can see that the polls are being manipulated in favour of Democraps in an attempt to convince joe public that they are winning not whining!

    220

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    “before all the corruption came out”

    Has the news reached the waverers? I doubt it.

    90

    • #
      Alex

      I’ve read today that the Biden corruption story has become the main topic among Americans.

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      • #
        wokebuster

        YT subscribers for SkyNews Australia from US residents has gone through the roof. The truth is getting out despite the censorship. They are getting 20k new subscribers per Week now. A year ago they’d be lucky to get 500 per week.

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      • #
        PeterS

        Good, so it should. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. In fact, if Biden ends up being President and there is any truth in the stories about him then impeachment procedures ought to commence immediately after he is official sworn into office.

        140

  • #
    Alex

    The Primary Model (2020) 91-95% Certain Trump Will Be Re-elected

    http://primarymodel.com/2020

    By Prof Helmut Norpoth PhD

    The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.

    Norpoth was one of the very few, ifnot the only one who had predicted Trump’s 2016 victory. At that time he had given Trump an 86% chance of winning. Now it’s 91% at least.

    [Duplicate]

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  • #
    Alex

    Norpoth’s Primary Model has correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1900 except JFK’s against Nixon and Dubbya Bush against and Al the Goracle.

    60

  • #
    el gordo

    The punters and astrologers have a Biden win, but all I see is Trump returning to complete what he initially set out to do.

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  • #
    Peter C

    The betting odds are confusing.

    Both SportsBet and Ladbrokes are showing Trump at 2.80 and Biden at 1.46. Yet I have also read that Ladbrokes has taken more money on Trump. If that is true then a win by Trump would mean a big loss for Ladbrokes! I didn’t think that the betting agencies worked like that. Ideally they would come out ahead, regardless of who wins.

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    • #
      PeterS

      Go woke, go broke.

      140

    • #
      RossP

      PeterC. Bookies are not out to predict the right result. They are out to make money –they are a business.

      50

    • #
      WokeBuster

      I used to work for a bookmaker in the 1980s and the betting for this election is weirdest thing I have seen apart from the Fine Cotton plunge. It makes no sense at all. The thing is there have always been “gambler” bookmakers prepared to take on the market but those bookmakers don’t last long in the business. Betting shops across the world have suddenly all become gamblers. I just don’t buy it. They either know something we don’t or this is politically motivated manipulation on a global scale.

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  • #
    Pauly

    Jo,
    You may have noticed that DJT himself voted yesterday in Florida. Some polling places in the US open well before Election Day, to allow early voting. I expect that various organisations are running “Exit Polls”, talking to people as the leave these polling stations. And you’ve probably already noted the amount of “mail in” ballots being sent out, ostensibly for people who can’t walk to a polling stations on the day. So perhaps, lots of people have already made their call.

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    • #

      Thanks Pauly, I wondered if it were exit polls but I’ve also heard that mail in votes — incredibly — are packed in envelopes that show whether the voter is listed as a D or R!

      Unbelieveable….

      I remember from the Australian election last year that people lied in exit polls. They said they’d vote Labor as they walked in, they voted Lib or other, and then said they’d voted Labor on the way out.

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    • #

      Why did he vote alone?

      14

      • #
        The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

        Greetings (Mr./Ms.) Gee Aye:

        Since I’m not sure which of the myriad genders I’m addressing, I would appreciate it if you would NOT take offense at being referred to in the incorrect gender. If you advise, there’s a remote chance my senile brain will remember which form of address you use.

        To answer the question, “Why did he vote alone?” I think, but am not sure, that you are referring to Mr. Trump, casting his ballot.

        We use something that I learned about in my Civics classes, as a young lad, growing up when we were taught how to think, and not told what to think. It’s called the Australian ballot, since it originated Down Under. It means the secret ballot; no one, from any governmental official, to your family members, or any pollsters, are entitled to know how you voted. Your vote is a matter between you and your Maker. If you choose to share how you voted, that is a choice you get to make; no one makes it for you.

        Here in Wyoming, we have a law on our books, that if the voter, for reason of handicap or other infirmity, specifically requests the assistance of someone, the person assisting the voter may accompany that person into the voting booth. The election judges, which my ‘better half’ is one, is specifically prohibited from assisting a voter, unless there is absolutely no alternative. In that case, two judges must accompany the voter, to insure that the voter’s wishes are followed; one will be a Democrat judge, and one will be a Republican judge.

        Same protocol for chain-of-custody of the cast ballots; a Republican judge, and a Democrat judge, must deliver the locked ballot box to the County Clerk, and sign that the ballot box has not in any way, shape, manner, or form, been out of their custody or been tampered with, prior to delivery to the Clerk.

        Hope that helps, Gee Aye. Your moniker suggests that you may have served in the Armed Forces somewhere. True? False?

        Regards,

        Vlad

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    • #
      BruceC

      Also there have been many reports of mail-in ballots been posted to people who have been dead for many years. Not to mention mail-in boxes being looted and/or burnt down or hundreds of ballots turning up dumped in parks, drains etc.

      80

  • #
    Pauly

    Jo,
    You may have noticed that DJT himself voted yesterday in Florida. Some polling places in the US open well before Election Day, to allow early voting. I expect that various organisations are running “Exit Polls”, talking to people as the leave these polling stations. And you’ve probably already noted the amount of “mail in” ballots being sent out, ostensibly for people who can’t walk to a polling stations on the day. So perhaps, lots of people have already made their call.

    10

  • #
    RickWill

    The connection between Lichtman’s short term economic outcome and the Whitehouse is likely not applicable because Covid is clearly an external cause and Trump never misses an opportunity to make that clear. Generally the democratic states have imposed more restrictions than the other states.

    The Covid numbers are high and rising but that is simply due to more testing. The early death rate in New York indicates millions actually had Covid but they were not tested to confirm it. Current deaths are spread quite widely and not many hospitals are overwhelmed.

    In any circumstances, I would favour the person prepared to put their own money on the outcome.

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  • #
    Mike Jonas

    “he is one man against a machine that includes the media, the judiciary, and the Tech Giants and a global pandemic.”. The states, not the federal government, have responsibility for dealing with the virus, not the president. The media, the judiciary and the tech giants operating together could not bring Donald Trump down. If he goes down it will be because of the virus. Mad.

    As an aside: Around the world, except in Sweden and maybe one or two other places, the health chiefs have chosen to put their own reputation ahead of the interests of the people, by recommending total lockdowns or similar. My point is that if a health chief recommends total lockdown then their bum is covered even if people die of the virus, whereas if they recommend any kind of targetted approach (eg, protect the most vulnerable, try risk-free vitamin D3, etc) then they could lose their job if a single person dies. Of course, the obscene media virtually forces them into that position.

    I congratulate the Swedish health authorities for getting it so right in the face of ferocious criticism from around the world. Just look at the chart of deaths in https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

    [Was caught as spam. Sorry about that] ED

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    • #

      Sigh. Mike. health experts are supposed to recommend things to save lives. Politicians are meant to decide on the balance between lives and money.

      Swedish health experts havent done well. The nation still did a half lockdown (see Google mobility data), still lost GDP, but also had many deaths. People over 80 were not allowed in to the ICU, not given oxygen, just morphine. The bullying of people who questioned the policy was appalling. No one knows if the Swedes have developed any useful immunity. Maybe they have. Maybe they havent. Not a great plan to base national policy on hope. 50% of Swedes live alone, the nation supplements with Vit D (fortified milk, oil and margarine). They holiday in the hills in summer, so are isolated anyway.

      Swedish stats don’t translate to any other nation unless 50% also live at home and Vit D is mandatory. And even if there is another country like that, they should be doing better than the rest of the world and anything else is a fail.

      Swedish data has been retrospectively altered from June 30 or so. Check the wayback machine and the deaths recorded now in June compared to what I showed in http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/sweden-is-trapped-in-an-interminable-deadly-half-lockdown/ Something very dodgy is going on with reported deaths in Sweden. Ten people often die of Covid only to be taken off the tally the next day. Despite that revision, CFR is still 5% in Sweden. One in 20 people who have tested positive are dead. Inadequate testing. Inadequate treatment. Forced schooling, no choice. Hardly the bastions of liberty.

      15

      • #
        tom0mason

        Jo “(see Google mobility data)”

        which is all verified wonderful by their fact checker. humm?

        40

      • #

        I learned something new about COVID once again on this website. It upset me that Jo Nova’s comment got five thumbs down, however, and I want to defend her COVID coverage and comments here. Not only because she’s pretty, but because this has become the best climate science (and COVID) website in the world. And deserves a lot of thumbs up. I read six climate websites every week, and have been reading climate science articles and studies every week since 1997. I’ve had my own free no ads climate science blog since 2014. I’ve had about 65,000 page views … which my wife insists is one deranged reader who looks at my blog every 15 minutes. Nice to have a wife with a sense of humor. I think I am qualified to judge the quality of a climate website, mainly by answering the question: Did I learn something new here today? The answer is yes for this website, and yes for this Jo Nova comment on Sweden.

        The main reasons I ignore Sweden as a “model” for other nations:
        – The pandemic is still in progress — it’s too early for conclusions,
        – One nation could look good just by chance, rather then wise policies,
        – Sweden’s deaths per 100,000 were not much better than the US, which is not good,
        – Neighboring nations had better results: Norway, Denmark and Finland,
        – Nursing home isolation was very bad at first, and
        – Business was very slow from March through early June,
        mainly from voluntary social distancing, which is better
        than mandatory partial lockdowns (Sweden had some
        of those too)… but for most businessman, the bottom line
        was the same — very low income for several months.

        Sweden may have set a good policy
        on getting back to normal,
        but it is too soon to be sure.

        If people have to jump to the conclusion that some
        nation “did things right”, then how about most of Asia,
        except China?

        20

  • #
    tom0mason

    Funny that on the Dan Bongino Show – Ep. 1377, he interviewed Robert Cahaly — Chief Pollster Trafalgar Group, who also said he got the last pole correct. Cahaly predicts it’s more likely for Trump to win over Biden, and maybe take both houses.
    Cahaly seems to understand that people do not necessarily answer polls honestly so uses less direct methods to get the wanted information. One ‘trick’ he outlines is to ask if a prospective voter gets along with their neighbors and if so how they believe they may vote. Through some computer alchemy this can conjure information on voter intentions. He doesn’t think exit polls are useful.

    IMO polling is as useful as astrology — it makes some people feel good and occasionally it’s correct.

    The Trump and Pence strategy appears to be consolidating their base of voters with a consistent message, while simultaneously trying to split the Democrat voters by attempting to show both Biden and Harris lying about their election promises.

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    • #
      tom0mason

      correction –

      “who also said he got the last pole correct. ”
      should be -
      who also said he got the last election correct.

      70

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      And today’s Astrology forecast is that Trump is nearly in the house of Jupiter while Biden is in Uranus.

      140

  • #

    The polls didn’t work in 2016 after a year of the press demonizing Trump. After almost five years of demonizing Trump, many Trump voters keep their preferences quiet to avoid verbal retribution, or worse. I supported the libertarian party for 40 years — but voted for Trump this time — my first vote for a republican since Reagan in 1990. I find him obnoxious, and can’t stand him bragging about himself, but he has four things in his favor — he supports free markets, doesn’t get scared by climate change, must not be a crook because he has been investigated more than any other president and they found nothing, and Melania (hubba hubba).

    Two of our friends (and my wife) are the only people I know who have said they will, or have, voted for Trump. They tell me they don’t discuss their preferences with anyone who is not a Trump fan, even liberal family members. So how can polls possibly be right?

    Trump rallies get lots of enthusiasm, while Biden rallies get a few honking car horns … Not to mention Biden is a big time crook. The candidate generating the most enthusiasm almost always wins in a fair election. Hopefully, after the election Trump will deport all the Democrats, and send them to France. Or Australia. They would make good pets if you could get them to stop barking!

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Richard:
      Send them to Canada. They always say that “if Trump is elected they will move to Canada”. They can join all those who moved there after the 2016 election.

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    • #
      David Wojick

      Yes, people do not want to say they will vote for Trump because they might get yelled at. Especially to a stranger taking a poll. That is why I like the poll that instead asked people who they thought would win. Trump won handily.

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      • #
        tom0mason

        Pollsters usually only sample a small number of voters, so maybe we should ask how many people here have been questioned by pollsters?
        Also if you have been asked were you truthful with your responses?

        I have been asked before and lied.

        30

        • #
          The Depraved and MOST Deplorable (and still asleep) Vlad the Impaler

          Greetings, Tom:

          I’ve been polled an at least three occasions. Two of the polls were computer-generated (yes, they were from legitimate polling organizations). The questions started with location, and if I was registered to vote.

          One poll was a telephone poll to our residential land-line. The “person” on the other end was a computer voice, and I would respond by pressing a number on the handset keypad. At the end, the ‘voice’ thanked me for participating, and advised that my results had been recorded, and I should look for the results of the poll in approximately five-to-seven days.

          Just this weekend, our landline received a call from the Democratic candidate for US Senate (Wyoming). I politely, but firmly advised the caller that I would never vote for the candidate the young lady was calling for, mostly because the Democratic candidate was so hopelessly uninformed on the topic of “climate change” (the Democrat wants to end the use of all fossil fuels within a decade). It was interesting: I’m a Geologist, and know enough about “climate change” to know it is a complete hoax, but no matter what I might suggest to this young lady, it was as if I was talking to a brick wall. No ability to think, just parroting the ‘talking points’ of the Communist leftist Socialist totalitarians. I finally asked her when she was ever going to start thinking for herself, at which point the line disconnected.

          My Regards to all, and may the Good Lord Bless and Keep President DJT,

          Vlad

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    • #

      Melania (hubba hubba).

      even though I am repulsed by this comment, I am interested to know which Melania you find most attractive?

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  • #
    RossP

    I cannot remember which company said it, but it was one of the more reliable ones, they reckon the “shy Trump” vote is about twice as big this time compared to 2016. We’ll have to wait and see if that is true.

    I think the biggest issue for Trump/Pence is the various forms of fraudulent votes. Mail-in, rigged voting machines, vote harvesting etc. I saw a comment from a Somalian born Democrat candidate the other day and she said the voting system in the US was worse than in Somalia –that coming from a Democrat candidate means something.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yes i think youre right, plus why give the raving lunatic Lefties a target to yell at?

      Its also a big ïn ya face” to the obnoxious left as well….

      PC? Here…cop this….

      There is I suspect a lot of anger at the Leftists nonsense people have had to put up with for a long time. People will be happy to exact retribution by not electing a CCP stooge, but rather someone who puts the country first, crates jobs, sticks the lie of climate chnage in the eye, and ignores the race to the bottom of the pile in bizarre PC world….

      Only the Left could be so messed up…it takes a special type of military grade stupid….and people are sick of it.

      I also suspect that if the Left kicks of riotting after the election, people will just patiently deal with the lunatic left jackals out on the streets…. Job done….long time coming…..

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  • #
    Old Goat

    A useful indicator could be the stock market – if the investors saw a democrat win I think it would drop , and if they win a large fall is probable . If Trump wins it will see a lot of investors back in. As far as I can see the large investors are waiting on the outcome and hedging their bets.

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  • #
    el gordo

    Donald is renown for making outlandish comments, but sleepy Joe has just shot himself in the foot. He knows zip.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/25/joe-biden-climate-change-will-actually-bake-this-planet/

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    • #
      BruceC

      All of the Biden/Harris (or should that be Harris/Biden) ‘research’ on climate change comes from AOC+3 … nuf said.

      60

  • #
    Dennis

    pse·phol·o·gy (sē-fŏl′ə-jē)
    n.
    The study of political elections.

    One of the best known Australian Psephologists, Malcolm Mackerras, invented his electorate pendulum that indicated the numbers of seats held in parliaments and the voting margin of each member in each electorate.

    Polls can be rigged by over sampling, the pollsters use the electoral rolls for electorates and obtain the voting trends from previous elections at each polling booth, and pick the ones that suit their agenda, or client’s agenda, to contact voters. Obviously if they want a Labor winning result they phone areas surrounding polling booths that returned the best Labor results. They even filter the people they call by asking questions that weed out the people most likely to not be Labor voters.

    On the other hand political parties use this system to work out where to direct their efforts after a boundary redistribution, and before an election campaign to try and target voters they want to attract away from their political opponents.

    I read that over sampling during the 2016 Presidential Election in the USA was responsible for the Clinton win prediction that failed to be achieved.

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    Disgusted

    This site was always nothing more than a political site masquerading as a blog about science. The mask really has been dropped in the past year or so. One can only wonder where the “donations” have been flowing in from to account for the shift to being not much more than pro-Trump mouthpiece.

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      Science has been crippled by being politicized. This site has always been about reducing the Big Government strangulation of research and discussion, and about the damage the politicized media does to free speech. Check the coverage here of Australian elections and the 2016 Trump one. Nothing has changed.

      Good science starts with free speech and non-corrupt governments. If the mainstream media were covering the corruption I wouldn’t be.

      Shame a Good Civilization is going to Waste Eh?

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      • #
        Small Footprint

        How would you fund unconstrained science?

        10

      • #
        tom0mason

        Yes Jo,

        here’s more politics — COVID is now not a pandemic it’s global-syndemic [A PLANDEMIC]
        The LANCET explains here –
        https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/global-syndemic

        Propaganda machine is gearing up so it’s reported at …
        [https://www].livemint.com/opinion/columns/say-it-right-covid-19-is-a-syndemic-not-a-pandemic-11603076513391.html
        [https://www].afr.com/policy/health-and-education/why-covid-19-is-not-a-pandemic-but-a-syndemic-20201014-p5657b
        [https://www].hindustantimes.com/world-news/gbd-report-shows-world-affected-by-syndemic-of-chronic-diseases-covid-19/story-GSmuQwsAaBG3MnlEjztMPK.html
        [https://www].aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/16/world-caught-in-syndemic-of-chronic-diseases-and-covid-19
        [https://www].marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/10/15/5f87777c268e3ec9778b45ac.html
        [https://www].reuters.com/article/us-health-global-disease/world-caught-in-syndemic-of-chronic-diseases-and-covid-19-global-study-says-idUSKBN27033B
        [https://www].scoop.co.nz/stories/GE2010/S00085/latest-findings-from-the-global-burden-of-disease-study-published-as-a-special-issue-of-the-lancet.htm
        [https://news].yahoo.com/world-caught-syndemic-chronic-diseases-014843631.html

        So the ramp up to a new ‘social vaccine’ exactly as the Rockafeller Foundation wanted. :-(

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          tom0mason

          As President Trump correctly observes –

          Donald J. Trump
          @realDonaldTrump

          The Fake News Media is riding COVID, COVID, COVID, all the way to the Election. Losers!

          and

          Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
          ·
          Cases up because we TEST, TEST, TEST. A Fake News Media Conspiracy. Many young people who heal very fast. 99.9%. Corrupt Media conspiracy at all time high. On November 4th., topic will totally change. VOTE!

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      John F. Hultquist

      You are wrong, and
      you are still here reading and commenting.
      Uff da!

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      Peter C

      I think it was Rereke Whakaaro, who responded to a similar comment some years ago by noting that a Science Blog could include Political Science.

      As Jo says, her broad focus has not changed. Thank goodness Wokeness does not rule here.

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        TdeF

        Climate Change was political Science Fiction.

        Not any part of it is true or proven correct since it was invented, not a single prediction including actual warming. In real science you have a theory, make a prediction, perform an experiment or wait. After waiting 32 years, man made Global Warming is now consigned to the dustbin of history. It was fake and now after 500,000 windmills and huge solar farms and vastly more expensive unreliable electricity only about rivers of cash and political power, not science. Even the Greens are walking away from Green power because it is fake, which means it was always fake.

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          TdeF

          And ‘Climate Extinction’? Man made Global Warming became Climate Change and now Climate Extinction. What warming? What Change? And what extinction? Who is making this up, because science now has nothing to do with it. Rational science needs facts. This is Irrational and it’s not science.

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      Kalm Keith

      I’m really dis custard too.

      Politics is the only basis for Crimate Change.

      As there’s no scientific basis for Crimate Change the discussion obviously must involve the politics behind it.

      In the FA, Final Analysis, Crimate Change is all about money being channeled to the right places.

      Just ask MalEx444 and the discussion group up at the great big barrier reef foundation. Have they worked out what to do with the 7 tons of Gold we sent them. Expenses, expenses: how many discussion sessions can you get from $444,000,000, yes that’s 444 million dollars to save our reef.

      KK

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    Another Ian

    “Big Tech Panicking – Trump’s Grassroots MAGA Army Working Around Platform Controls…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/10/25/big-tech-panicking-trumps-grassroots-maga-army-working-around-platform-controls/

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      Peter C

      Great Ian,

      I was about to post that item but you were there first.

      Not only have the MAGA Army figured out how to frustrate the big tech censorship they are getting louder and bolder. First they rallied in Beverly Hills! Now they are rallying at Biden/Harris events.

      To make the marches even more effective a really smart organic approach has started and we now see Trump rallies and marches targeted to the exact event venues where Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are showing up.

      The Trump supporters easily outnumber the Biden supporters by 20:1 or more. The magnitude of the MAGAnitude is incredible. This is totally organic, but word has spread and now it is happening everywhere.

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        OriginalSteve

        Yeah…..I’m expecting an agro push back by the Left……hope it doesnt happen.

        So interestingly, just like that , the Leftie tech titans have become…… minows.

        Ha ha.

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          Kalm Keith

          Last week I TABed Trump at 2.3 for a win.

          This week I couldn’t resist going again at 2.55 and the prime motivation is to make money out of the false poll info.
          Trump actually hit 2.6 the other day while Biden was about 1.5.

          Truth be known these odds should almost certainly be the other way around.±

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    TIP

    GREAT video – thanks for posting it Jo

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      TIP. Yes, I’m not sure how many watched it. Perhaps I should have raved more. But I have never seen a poll commentator slice and dice the situation like he does.
      I watched it at 2 x speed, which makes it machine gun rapid fire data. But then I ended up watching some of it a second time. I turn on auto english subtitles which makes youtube usable for me.

      I recommend 1.5 x speed. He’s that good. I watch everyone at 2x. Only the best speakers are worth watching slower.

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    TdeF

    Unbelievable..

    “Four more years of George, uh, George, uh, he, uh— gonna find ourselves in a position where, if, uh, Trump gets elected, uh, we’re gonna be, uh, we’re gonna be in a different world,” he said.

    George Bush was the last “George” to run for reelection.

    In an interview Saturday, Biden mistakenly said that his campaign has assembled the “most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics:”

    For once he is right.

    No wonder they have stopped Biden giving live interviews. He is not listening to the voice in his head, the earpiece. So they are putting lid on Biden before he puts a lid on the Democrats. There is no one who thinks Joe Biden is not suffering from senile Dementia. At this rate if the Democrats win, it will be Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton being inaugurated. Clinton is already giving interviews.

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    Furiously curious

    This is the site for mail in, pre vote counts
    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

    A couple of thoughts:- saw a video of Obama on the stump, and he was also speaking to an empty shed.
    In all the jockeying for Joe’s cabinet, seemingly all the positions are to be filled by the swamp, with more chance of a ‘Never Trump’ Republican getting a position than a progressive. They want an ‘inclusive’(establishment) govt. No Lizzie Warren, or Bernie?! Someone mentioned that the radicals hold maybe 8, out of the nearly 600 House and Senate seats. Squeaky wheels.
    Whatever happens there could be a dual front civil war, Dems/Repubs, Dem establishment/progressive radicals.They’ve had a nice long warm up.
    And seemingly Wall St has backed Joe. He gets them back into China, and is predictable, and Kamala is a bit of a Wall St darling.

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    WokeBuster

    A professional trader and punter giving his detailed reasons for betting on Trump

    https://www.learntotradethemarket.com/nial-fullers-blog/why-trump-wins-2020-election

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    TERRY

    Polls are a joke .
    With Trump in 2016 I bet on him when he was 5/1 in the middle of the year
    By Election Day he had blown out to 9/1.
    Same with Morrison last year – I bet on him at 6/1 – by Election Day he had blown out to 9/1 as well.
    I predict a landslide Trump win here so much so that I’ve even bet on California and New York to flip.
    Hey but what do I know.

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    tom0mason

    Many Polls Flipping Fast In Trump’s Favor –
    https://youtu.be/-3Za_qm8Qlg

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    Denny

    What a wonderful video with Robert Barnes pointing out the flaws of modern polling. I’ve suspected for a long time the legion of lecturers (NYT, etc) were more interested in shaping public opinion than reporting it. I didn’t realize that only 2% of those called were responding. Lots of fascinating information to give skepticism a boost about the Biden lead in the polls.

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    CHRIS

    As I have said in other topics….THE US ELECTION IS NON-COMPULSORY VOTING. Let’s get a bit of perspective in here. The only states that matter are the battleground (swing) states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Oklahoma etc). The popular vote is useless (remember, Hiliary beat Trump by 2 million votes, but still lost). The election is a state-by-state result for Electoral College votes. It is practically a given that Biden will win most of the Eastern States and California (which gives 20% of the Electoral College votes required to obtain a majority). The North, Mid-West and Southern States are the key to victory. I am hoping that Trump can win enough of these states to get the 273 Electoral College votes required for victory, but it will depend on whether voters in the swing states get off their backsides and ACTUALLY VOTE!!

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    CHRIS

    BTW, remember that, historically, voter turnout in US elections is only between 60-65%

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      TdeF

      And in Today’s Australian, you can tell Trump is going to win as the anti conservative Troy Bramston has an amazing rant against this very popular President, enemy of leftists across the world.

      “A tryannical, undignified Donald Trump has trashed the presidency and even threatened the republic”. He cannot find a single good thing about the Trump Presidency. Clearly the deplorables like Trump and half of America are ‘trashing the Republic’. “the republic itself may not survive if Trump is re-elected”.

      What I find really odd is that if you are popular, you are ‘populist’, a terrible thing to be. As Sir Humphrey Applebee would ask, what does the public know about running the government? After all, the vote for Hillary in the swamp of D.C. was 98.6%. Clearly 1.4% were total deplorables. It looks like the same ratio for US journalists and Hollywood.

      Ironically apart from the public service, the workers’ unions are no longer part of the extreme left. Only the rich and powerful know what’s good for you. And the millenials are too lazy to vote. It’s not their election without Sanders.

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    R.B.

    You reminded me of this fact check from 2016

    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump falsely claimed Clinton “acid washed” 33,000 personal emails to delete them, calling it “an expensive process.” The FBI said Clinton’s tech team used BleachBit, which is a free software program. It does not use chemicals.

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