JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Surprise, IPCC draft report leaked, on cue, ready to be milked for another round of press

Six months to go and why waste a perfectly good press opportunity?

Hold on to your hat: This draft is almost the same as every other draft ever was.

A draft United Nations climate science report contains dire news about the warming of the planet, suggesting it will likely cross the key marker of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, of temperature rise in the 2040s, and that this will be exceedingly difficult to avoid.

Blah. Blah. Must act urgently. Blah. The two messages we will never hear is that we are doing enough or spending too much.

The leak is so predictable, and such a standard marketing tool, that the IPCC even has an excuse at-the-ready:

The document’s leak has become a standard affair for major United Nations climate science reports, because they are seen by so many reviewers.

This is supposed to be a transparent process to solve a global problem. How can that be “leaked?”

A slight change in flavour is that while we were always aiming for two arbitrary degrees of warming, now we are now also aiming for an arbitrary 1.5C as well. The lower target is unachievable, apparently, allowing script writers to simultaneously say we “are past the point of no return”, going to overshoot” and “not on track” and also say “we can keep warming under the target” (just, barely, etc) depending on which target you want to refer to. This scores double points in keyword bingo. Something for everyone.

Since such rapid and severe cuts aren’t likely, the report notes that it’s virtually unavoidable that the planet will “overshoot” 1.5 degrees Celsius. To cool the Earth down afterward and avoid staying at dangerously high temperatures for long, it would then be necessary to remove carbon dioxide from the air at a massive scale — but that, too, is highly problematic.

 

 

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.2/10 (103 votes cast)
Surprise, IPCC draft report leaked, on cue, ready to be milked for another round of press, 9.2 out of 10 based on 103 ratings

119 comments to Surprise, IPCC draft report leaked, on cue, ready to be milked for another round of press

  • #
    Drapetomania

    Doomed..we are doomed :)
    Anyway..on a lighter note..people driving past me with “Climate Catastrophe” on their CAR
    People at the petrol station with “Ban Oil and Coal” stickers on their CAR
    People driving to the local rally against fossil fuels..in their CAR
    Are their any alarmists who actually walk the walk ?
    Has anyone ever asked these clowns..for all the billions that you have thrown into the air..how is the world “better” ?

    482

    • #
      PeterS

      Yes we, meaning Australians, are doomed but not due to some climate change. We are very likely doomed due to the lack of thinking and followup action required by the voters here in Australia to force a change in direction on a number of fronts by sending a clear message at the next election to both major parties. We simply get the government we deserve. Sorry but this is fact and there is no way to brush it under the carpet and pretend it’s not true. Look in the mirror. The person you see has the power to make such a change. If we as a nation can’t be bothered to use our democratic system, fractured as it is, to enact a change then we might as well give up our country to another one who is willing to enact some of the necessary changes. It’s the same in the corporate world. If company directors are no longer worthy of their stockholders then they can allow a takeover by another company to make the necessary changes and revitalise the company, or go broke. Of course the problem is such takeovers typically come at a cost, such as mass sackings. Something similar most likely will occur if and when we get taken over. Wake up Australia before it’s too late! We have the resources to make this nation great again. We just simply need the will.

      371

    • #

      Maybe the activists should buy a Tesla. After all the company is continually issuing reports that production of the less expensive Model 3 is being ramped up. Though, like with global warming and sea level, whilst the projections are of acceleration, the reality is starkly different.

      191

      • #
        PeterS

        Well there’s already one Tesla car that’s now officially space junk since the SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket launch last week. Am I the only one who sees the irony in all this? Show to the world how your car is great by sending it to outer space where it’s only purpose is to be dead weight for a rocket launch and ending up being space junk. Might as well send it to the bottom of the Mariana Trench.

        140

        • #
          Mark D.

          You believe it is really in space? Good god, there are people that don’t believe in the moon walks.

          64

          • #
            PeterS

            Are you just being sarcastic or a flat earther?

            41

            • #

              Are you just being sarcastic or a flat earther?

              Yes!! In “over da pond news!!

              The Justice Department asserts the Mueller budget information cannot be released because its release could interfere with “law enforcement proceedings” and the material is protected from disclosure by the “deliberative process privilege.”

              Each and every corrupt criminal employed by the entity called Department of Justice (DOJ, including R.Mueller, must be charged and convicted of ‘Seditious conspiracy (18 U.S.C. § 2384)’, rebellion or insurrection (18 U.S.C. § 2383)’,and ‘misprision of treason (18 U.S.C. § 2382)’. Upon conviction none can ever be a US government employee!
              J. Sessions can do that by himself, while still being recused from the Mueller SC investigation. This corrupt DOJ is not currently a fourth body under the US constitution!

              01

        • #
          sophocles

          If it ever re-enters atmosphere—highly unlikely, I know—but what a fireball that will be!
          The battery fire to beat all battery fires. :-)

          72

        • #

          One thing that is near certain. Tesla Motor will crash before the Tesla Falcon X crashes into either Earth or Venus. This would be the case even if the business was stable and well established, as simulations of the pathway of the car show a 6% chance of hitting Earth and a 2.5% chance of hitting Venus in the next million years.

          01

      • #
        Dennis

        Delivery timing dropped below five years yet?

        lol

        30

      • #
        Geoff

        Feb Council meeting
        Executive Summary: • A letter was received on 6 December 2017 from Eurobodalla Shire Council requesting support in establishing an electric highway along the Princes Highway connecting Melbourne and Sydney, and linking Canberra and Batemans Bay via the Kings Highway. • An electric highway is a series of electric vehicle (EV) fast-charging stations, which will enable EV drivers to complete longer journeys and visit otherwise less accessible regions. • There are a number of perceived benefits of the proposed south-east electric highway; the main one being to address ‘range anxiety’ concerns in the large Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney markets and along the route. Another benefit is that charging stations in regional towns will require EV drivers to stop for 20 to 30 minutes to recharge their vehicles. This is expected to boost regional tourism economies. • The cost of establishing the proposed south-east electric highway is estimated to be in the $500,000 to $1 million range; however no funding commitment from Latrobe City Council has been requested.

        30

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          The cost of establishing the proposed south-east electric highway is estimated to be in the $500,000 to $1 million range; however no funding commitment from Latrobe City Council has been requested.

          Now come on!

          It’s 850km along the Hume corridor to Melbourne from Sydney. The Princes’ Highway is about 1100 km and the road is a shocker. Absolute shocker. The King’s Highway from Canberra to Batemans Bay is not much better but about 150 kms, with Braidwood along the way (great pies at Braidwood Bakery).

          A million dollars? At best that would be $1 million per 500 metres. And, where’s the electricity to come from? Solar? My foot. The south coast of NSW is cloudy, rainy and that’s just in summer.

          Somebody needs to do the figures on the cost of putting in the power sources for EVs. It’s a joke.

          Do you have a reference Geoff?

          60

      • #
        sean

        All driving a Tesla, or any other electric car, does is to push your fossil fuel use away into the shadows where you can pretend that it doesn’t exist. Unless you can state with 100% confidence that all of the power used to charge your EV comes from renewable resources, you’re still using fossil fuels — just at one remove.

        00

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I hate the idea of quote this odious little man, but it does suit the situation:

      “How fortunate for leaders, that men do not think”
      - Adolf Hitler.

      190

    • #
      Phillip Bratby

      You beat me to it. I was going to write “doomed, we’re all doomed – yet again”.

      30

  • #
    manalive

    To cool the Earth down afterward and avoid staying at dangerously high temperatures for long, it would then be necessary to remove carbon dioxide from the air at a massive scale — but that, too, is highly problematic …

    Problematic indeed, a lower CO2 concentration and lower GAT would cause multiple species extinctions in the tropics, lower crop yields and starvation for millions, the falling sea level would expose precious coral reefs causing permanent bleaching, millions of climate refugees would be fleeing savage European winters for North Africa and Syria, Canadians would be fleeing plagues of ravenous polar bears etc. etc.
    It just exposes the preposterous assumption that there’s some perfect global average temperature and it occurred in some halcyon pre-industrial Eden.

    351

    • #

      it would then be necessary to remove carbon dioxide from the air at a massive scale — but that, too, is highly problematic…

      What gets me here is that this only applies to already Developed Countries, who immediately cave in and agree to lower their emissions, and to throw their Billions of dollars at it.

      China and other Developing Countries just thumb their collective noses at that, and proceed at pace to increase their emissions, and in THIS case, it’s the UN and the Developing Countries who just cave in and say. “Well, that’s okay then.”

      The hypocrisy is astounding.

      Tony.

      250

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        Unless its by design…..

        The logic is kind of straight forward IMHO – govts can be stupid, however….

        Western govts who have massive high tech capability and knowledge – how is it then possible to have the basic science of what CO2 does and is, misunderstood while still able to put a man in space?

        Ergo….

        71

        • #

          It’s funny you mention that OriginalSteve.

          Here you have Developed Countries who have designed the single best technology for every type of electrical power plant, have all the big names in designing and producing all that high tech equipment for every part of every process of every type of power plant.

          Currently, their best clients are the Chinese, who in nearly every case have asked that those huge conglomerates come in and construct the first couple of them, and then the Chinese do all the rest of them, and in most cases improving it along the way.

          You wonder why these humungous Companies, some of them the biggest in the World, are making huge profits, and just keep on designing and building new improved versions of what they already have.

          China is now sub contracting their work into other Countries, and surprise surprise where all the equipment comes from. Those same huge Companies.

          In our so called “Western’ democracies, they are too scared to do what the Chinese have done without even blinking.

          All this will pass in our Western democracies and they will then start to replace their ancient relics.

          By that time, the Chinese will have had at least 15 years head start.

          And you wonder why the Chinese are the looming World leaders.

          Tony.

          170

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Tony,

        The Chinese have done serious scientific research into the hypothesis that man-made CO2 is the predominant driver of global warming. They’ve found that the Null hypothesis holds.

        That’s why they don’t give a fig. The rest of the world is being led by the nose.

        60

  • #
    Zigmaster

    The IPCC by doubling down and emphasising how it’s somehow inevitable that what we’re doing is not enough and that we are passing the point of no return should lead to believers to finally concede that there is nothing more that can be done to avoid disaster, the damage is already too severe and we are all going to fry no matter what. The only conclusion is that it’s a waste of time to spend any money trying to avert this disaster , that any efforts to avoid it will be futile and Trump was right to redirect funds to other issues.

    251

    • #
      el gordo

      The end is nigh, apparently.

      I missed the great climate shift of 1976 and was determined not to miss the next one. So I watched intently and then in July 2017 there was a tipping point, it has all the hallmarks of global cooling and there is nothing we can do.

      132

      • #
        joseph

        But there is . . . . . we can imagine Australia winning lots of Gold at the Winter Olympics in Kinshasa!

        90

      • #
        yarpos

        I was reading a very funny artocle this morning, apparently the current cold snap in the US was just an anomolous hole in the overall global warming. The were dead serious and even had a map showing how its cold in some parts of the US and not others. Blissfully unaware of the rest of the world, but still talking global warming.

        81

        • #
          el gordo

          The meandering jet stream makes it ‘cold in some parts of the US and not others.’

          This is happening in both hemispheres and might cause chaos in mid latitudes.

          10

  • #
    BernardP

    The aim of those leaks is to spark a new round of “news” about AGW in the MSM. Then the World Bank will issue another scary statement about AGW which will prompt a new round of propaganda. After that, the OECD will issue a warning about AGW… and the music plays again. And on, and on… Eventually, the actual IPCC report will come out, validating every previous warning, and the MSM will enter into a frenzy, with a bonus dollop of Trump-bashing.

    There is only a small minority in the general public that is aware that the Science Is NOT Settled.The political and media disinformation barrage is unrelenting.

    291

  • #
    Magoo

    I often wonder if the IPCC leaks it’s reports to see what aspects of it are criticised by sceptics, and then they make the necessary adjustments to the report before final publication to minimise humiliation. I can’t remember which parts exactly, but last time certain parts of the draft were excluded, rewritten, or hidden in more obscure parts of the report after scathing criticism by sceptics, or because they reinforced the sceptic point of view.

    Perhaps it’s best not to pass too much judgement on the ‘draft’ and destroy the final publication instead when it’s published warts and all. Alarmists always dismiss criticism by saying it’s just a draft anyway. Just a thought to take into consideration maybe.

    81

    • #

      Their first priority is surely getting 200+ mentions of doom and gloom and “thousands of scientists” in media around the world. Then in October they will get a repeat of that nearly verbatim. Two hits for the price of one!

      Though you are right — there is a side benefit of “testing” statements from a draft which gives them plausible deniability if they test badly. “No we didn’t really mean that“. But since their message hardly varies, there is not much to test.

      152

      • #

        Approximately 0.03 thousands of scientists are actually involved. There are around 1000 times as many bureaucrats and rent-seekers “concerned” with producing scary stories summaries.

        Recall how real scientists are mistreated to obtain IPCC consensus reports.

        Consider also that it is vitally important that the headline include “leaked” because without it being leaked, ordinary punters would not believe it to be important.

        50

      • #
        RAH

        Every single syllable of their “reports” is parsed and edited by political functionaries before the report is released. IPCC ARs (Assessment Reports) are political statements disguised as scientific papers and should always be treated as such. They reveal far more about the objectives of the UN than they do about weather or climate. And when one digs deep they will on occasion find the conclusions stated in the summary are contradicted by statements in the body of the document. A form of political double-speak.

        40

      • #
        • #
          RAH

          I’m not getting why so many of my posts lately containing nothing vulgar or deprecating are ending up “awaiting moderation”?

          10

  • #

    Sadly, if a majority are prepared to believe in Upholstery in Space then a majority will believe in planetary cooling through a mysterious process called “climate action”.

    If the nutter elites really could lower the Earth’s temp they might be able to kill a few billion of us, judging by those cooling episodes which brought down the Old Kingdom around 2200 BC and blighted the Bronze Age cultures some thousand years after that. Fortunately, our nutter elites are only good for killing off a few million through war, debt and the white elephants of Big Green. Let’s hope their incompetence continues to match their malevolence.

    221

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘The 4.2 kiloyear BP aridification event was one of the most severe climatic events of the Holocene period.’

      A time of universal climate change, a Bond Event, when the dingo turned up in Australia.

      41

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I wouldnt put it past the lunatic Elite to start a global war to achieve their aims.

      The Mid East is almost ready to go – Russia and Iran seem to be working together to have a crack at Israel ( seriously dumb idea, by the way…), China will likely come to the aid of Russia and other countries of similar ilk to Iran will no doubt join in….then when the west sides with Israel….well….its on….and of course NK then arc up and throw the teddy completely out of the pram while China re-takes Taiwan in the confusion.

      Russia has Sunburn missiles which can easily take out US aircraft carriers in a pop, so any the hormuz straight will become a graveyard for the americans if they go in….

      42

  • #
    AndyG55

    It will be quite HILARIOUS if/when the temperature starts to drop back to say pre-1998 El Nino levels in the next 6 months.

    Leaking this when they MUST KNOW that a cooling trend is starting to kick in, is probably one of their more IDIOTIC moments… (and there are a LOT to choose from.) :-)

    182

  • #
    crakar24

    The IPCC behave exactly like a government organisation…………….

    110

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      If a commercial organization spread as much disinformation that distorted world markets, it would be banged up and shut down very fast.

      But when its a “hallowed” ( more like the “hallow” on halloween….) UN body, it can do no wrong,……

      Bring on Climate Nuremberg….

      50

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        Maybe so but that hasn’t stopped the dopey CEO of South 32, Graham Kerr, declaring that thermal coal is not for them because it is becoming less attractive to investors; has an uncertain future (don’t we all Graham, especially dopey CEOs?); and, the future doesn’t support long-term investment in thermal coal.

        Presumably that’s why China and India, and Japan etc are racing at breakneck speed to build coal fired power plants. Presumably that’s why Adani is trying to tip $16.6 Billion into the Carmichael mine in the Galilee Basin in Queensland.

        No wonder South 32 is going south. No wonder its share price dropped 5.4% on Kerr’s dopey announcement. No wonder South 32 missed its first half profit expectations. With a boofhead CEO who continues to gargle the Kool-Aid we can expect to see South 32 continuing to go south. Just like a South Sea bubble.

        30

  • #
    Peter C

    Since such rapid and severe cuts aren’t likely, the report notes that it’s virtually unavoidable that the planet will “overshoot” 1.5 degrees Celsius.

    As Jo points out the IPCC keeps lowering the bar. It was 2C but now they are squealing about 1.5C temperature rise.

    Actually I thought we had already reached 1.5C, but even that event seems to recede into the future, always just in front to us.

    101

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Peter C:

      1.5℃ warmer than when? We are well below the Medieval Warming period now, and that was so beneficial for those in Europe. Going back 4-6,000 years and we would be in the Holocene Optimum when the Sahara was green and there was no Arctic ice sheet. In the Eemian (~125,000 years ago) It was warm enough for lions, elephants, giraffes and hippos to live in the Thames Valley in England. No evidence of humans becoming extinct then. And peoples attitudes will differ; Queenslanders may complain about a bit of warming, but Taswegians would probably be cheering. So too Icelanders, Greenlanders, Canadians and those currently struggling to stay warm in New England.

      142

    • #
      yarpos

      Everything about climate alarmism and renewables is in the future. Its always imminent, coming, emerging, prices will fall etc. There is rarely a wow look at this ! right here, right now, this is so good you really want to spend your money on it without grants, subsidies or rebates.

      42

    • #
      el gordo

      Peter they assume the hiatus will eventually cease and global warming begin again, unshackled.

      In the event of this happening, in the absence of strong El Nino, then the Klimatariat would have the upper hand.

      11

  • #

    There is something that puzzles me about the maths on the 1.5°C warming claim. The IPCC’s central estimate is that a doubling of CO2 will cause 3°C of warming. On this basis, a rise in CO2 levels from 280 to 400ppm will give just over 1.5°C of warming. It is the only the (ever-lengthening) time lags that have prevented the warming from being revealed – or maybe because the global temperature data has not confessed to the real truth yet. :)
    Some of the warming since 1850 is clearly not related to CO2, so the warming in progress must be more than the 0.5°C between human-caused and revealed 1.0°C for HADCRUT4. That means – using the IPCC’s terms – average temperature increase will be something more than 1.5°C without any more emissions. Yet somehow, quite a lot more emissions can be generated before 1.5°C is attained.
    I have done the maths, from a magic doubling formula found at the Sks website, and cannot properly figure out what has been done. It seems that for 1.5°C or 2°C of warming in 2100, the IPCC assumes, respectively, that temperatures peak at respectively around 1.75°C or 2.4°C above 1850 levels.
    It would appear that there is a bit of misleading use of figures going on here. I would welcome anyone checking my calculations.

    92

    • #
      KinkyKeith

      Hi Kevin

      I had a very brief look at the redirect to SkS and the “equation” and honestly I wouldn’t bother even trying to understand it.

      It is obviously a few things dressed up to look like science with no basis in reality.

      It’s a propaganda tool, that’s all.

      K

      111

      • #

        Kinky Keith,

        The real problem is not the Sks equation – it is a tautological statement. Change the constant from 0.8 to 0.809, input any two numbers, where the second is twice the first, and the answer will be 3.000. The real problem is that however you consistently work the numbers if you take the IPCC’s central assumptions

        (a) a doubling of CO2 leads to 3°C of warming, and
        (b) CO2 stays in the atmosphere for decades

        Then 1.5°C will happen from rises in CO2 levels that have already happened.
        As much less than 1.5°C of actual warming can be attributed to GHG emissions, if the IPCC’s assumptions are correct then the must be considerable “warming in progress“. The onus is on the IPCC to state what the assumed magnitude of the climate wip, and how they will verify this from the available data. If it is ocean heat, they should justify by proper experiment why a few hundredths of a degree of warming will sometime be released into the atmosphere to generate 1°C or more of warming.

        10

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          Hi Kevin,

          I appreciate your work in assessing the stated “truths” of the CO2 as handed to us by the U.N.ipcc and I suspect that you are saying it doesn’t add up or make sense.

          What I’m doing is to adopt a different approach and say that we should no longer debate their deliberations because we need to go to the core of the issue: that CO2 cannot act in the way they claim.

          This is the scientific truth of the matter.

          There never was and never will be any human caused Global Warming.

          We need to start attacking this point.

          Maybe one day we will get there but there’s a lot of money between the present and the truth.

          :-) KK

          30

          • #

            Keith,

            Why should either of us have to point out why the IPCC is wrong? In most other areas it is up to the proponents to demonstrate that their contentions are verified, rather than for critics to shoot them down.
            For example
            - In accountancy, it is up to a business to demonstrate that the accounts are a true and fair view of the business according to laid down standards, not for the business to decide on what standards are appropriate, then validate their own work. Yet it is the latter approach that NASA GISS, NOAA and Australian BOM take with the surface temperature sets.
            - In science, a hypothesis can never be said to be true, only that has failed to be falsified (per Popper & Feynman). Consensus climate thinking (Cook / Lewandowsky / Oreskes / Dunlap etc.) is that it is only the banal beliefs of “experts” such as that the world has warmed, and human have a played a significant role in that (Doran & Zimmerman 2009) that is necessary to underpin climate mitigation policies to stop CAGW – or to use to smear critics.
            - In Criminal Courts, a dim view is taken of those who try to bias a jury through prejudiced comments, stop a defence from speaking, or would fail to present actual evidence for cross-examination. A case merely based on secondhand opinions (often dressed up for as more than they are – e.g. the Polar Bear smear paper’s misrepresentation of Consensus Studies) if resulted in a conviction, would be appealed as a gross miscarriage of justice.
            - In medicine, we benefit from the regulatory requirements that new drugs must be tested thoroughly both to make sure they work, and to make sure that any potential side effects are documented and monitored when prescribed. In climate mitigation policies all that matters is to get countries signing up to sort of commit to doing something, with no monitoring of what they do, nor any get-out clause if the program is clearly both useless and harmful.

            00

  • #
    PeterS

    So who is still listening and taking action with regards to the warnings coming out of the IPCC? Almost no one. While we allow the two main parties continue on the path to destroy our economy, nearly all of the rest of the world is busy building coal fired power plants like there is no tomorrow. It amazes me to see how stupid Australia has become. I once thought this was the smart country as well as the lucky one. Turns out I was wrong on the first part. I believe we have one last opportunity to turn things around at the next federal election by sending a clear message we don’t want either major party to continue with their current policies on climate change. If we don’t send such a message loud and clear this nation is doomed for sure. It might even be too late already but at least we ought to try.

    60

  • #

    Someone needs to remind me why Australia is still a member of the UN and pays money to it. They also need to remind me why anyone reads reports from the long-since-discredited IPCC too. Both these organisations have long ago passed their use-by date. The sexual harassment case against Pachauri and current reports of UN peacekeepers organising Paedophilia Rings and committing 60,000 rapes are but some of the latest signs of internal decay.
    [such claims require supporting evidence.]ED

    151

    • #
      TdeF

      The question which surround the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is whether there is any and if so, how is it was connected to mankind? If Climate Change did not exist, the IPCC would have to vanish, so they invented it.

      Of all of the impacts mankind has had on the environment, say the entire landscape of England or the sudden halving of rainfall in Australia 50,000 years ago, who would have thought they would seize on tiny CO2? The industrial revolution. Fossil fuel. Sounds like it might work and the money has flowed like the Amazon ever since, with no effect whatsoever on CO2. The head of the IPCC, train engineer Pachauri flew 1,000km a day every day to lecture on the evils of flying.

      Since then it has been like the Christian council of Nicea in 323AD. By one vote Christians decided at the top that Christ was god. Then the desperate rewriting of history to create a story which fitted he new belief. By the middle ages, half the Vatican was made of lawyers. So is Greenpeace and most of every parliament, at least the 25% which are not military dictatorships. They are all waiting for their handouts for Climate Change. A huge business. Too bad about the CO2.

      82

      • #
        Allen Ford

        They have still to give a rational explanation of how the human contribution to annual net increases of CO2 levels in the atmosphere of around 3%, can somehow override the remaining 97% from natural sources in producing the alleged disasters.

        Can’t we press them, volubly, for some non-BS explanation?

        62

        • #
          TdeF

          I would characterize the IPCC approach since its creation in 1988 as being the Chicken Little approach. All bluster and yelling and the ‘sky is falling’. No one seems to notice that spending $1.5Trillion a year on reducing CO2 has had no effect at all. It’s as if CO2 levels are entirely natural, which cannot be possible according to the IPCC. They are all knowing, all wise.

          92

  • #
    ZombieDawg

    I trust everyone is subscribed to Adapt 2030
    On youtube?
    A must watch for every vid.
    Oh wait until the nomophobe masses wake up in the looming food crisis eh…

    [What? Decode please] ED

    10

    • #

      ED- it is another take on alarmism to garner or probably defraud patrons. Truly nutty.

      00

    • #
      Mark M

      Nomophobia is a proposed name for the phobia of being out of cellular phone contact.

      It is, however, arguable that the word “phobia” is misused and that in the majority of cases it is another form of anxiety disorder.

      Although nomophobia does not appear in the current Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, it has been proposed as a “specific phobia”, based on definitions given in the DSM-IV.

      According to Bianchi and Philips psychological factors are involved in the overuse of a mobile phone.
      * * *

      20

  • #
    pat

    14 Feb: Washington Times: Bitter cold at Winter Olympics chills global-warming hype
    By Valerie Richardson
    Climate activists have also been frustrated by a lack of global-warming coverage by NBC Sports, prompting a social-media campaign led by Public Citizen, Protect Our Winters and Climate Nexus urging the network to stop the “climate whiteout.”
    “Winter sports are taking a huge hit from our warming planet and the athletes who depend on cold weather and snow—are witnessing and experiencing climate change first hand,” they said in a statement on Alternet. “We can no longer talk about the Winter Olympics without warming.”…

    Since the 1920s, the average temperatures at the Winter Olympics have risen from about 33 degrees Fahrenheit to more than 46 degrees for games held since 2000, according to Yale Climate Connections.
    “The climate in many traditional winter sports regions isn’t what it used to be, and fewer and fewer places will be able to host the Olympic Winter Games as global warming accelerates,” said Mr. Scott in a statement.

    The problem with climate models in general is their shaky track record, said University of Colorado Boulder meteorologist Roger A. Pielke Sr.
    “Such claims are based on climate models that have shown essentially no skill at predicting multidecadal changes in regional climate statistics when tested against observed multidecadal regional climate changes and variations over the past decades (called “hindcasting”),” said Mr. Pielke in an email.
    “If they cannot skillfully predict such changes in the past, we should have no confidence in what they tell us with respect to the coming decades,” he said. “Claims to the contrary are based on political advocacy and not robust science.”

    The 2018 Winter Olympics are on pace to go down as the coldest in recorded history, with night temperatures in Pyeongchang falling as low as -20 degrees Celsius, or -4 Fahrenheit, according to Reuters.
    Such a mark would easily surpass the record of -11 degrees Celsius set at the 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, Norway.

    David Arkush, managing director of Public Citizen, argued that the overall trend still supports warmer global temperatures and what his group described as “disappearing winters.”
    “Nothing in climate science says the temperature today must always be higher than yesterday or one year ago,” he said in an email. “But the overall warming trend is unmistakable and alarming.”…
    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/14/winter-olympics-cold-weather-chills-global-warming/

    30

    • #
      pat

      someone just told me this ad is playing during the Winter Olympics (Hyundai and Kia are also sponsors):

      VIDEO: 1min: Toyota TV Commercial, ‘Frozen’
      About Toyota TV Commercial, ‘Frozen’
      Toyota depicts Olympic athletes, including ice skaters, bobsledders and hockey players among others, as carved ice sculptures, locked in frozen motion. As the sun rises, the ice slowly melts and the winter spectacles begin to wear away. Toyota believes everyone should do more to protect winter and is renewing its commitment to hybrid, electric and hydrogen vehicles.
      https://www.ispot.tv/ad/wejK/toyota-frozen

      10

  • #
  • #
    pat

    madness:

    15 Feb: McClatchy: Snow-covered beaches? Chilly iguanas? They are part of a mysterious ‘hole’ in global warming
    By Stuart Leavenworth
    WASHINGTON — Frigid iguanas in Florida. Snowball fights on North Carolina’s beaches. Recent winters have delivered a bitter chill to the Southeast, reinforcing attitudes among some that global warming is a fraud.
    But according to a scientific study published this month (LINK), the Southeast’s colder winter weather is part of an isolated trend, linked to a more wavy pattern in the jet stream that crosses North America. That dipping jet stream allows artic air to plunge into the Southeast. Scientists call this colder weather a “hole” in overall global warming, or a “warming hole.”

    “What we are looking at is an anomaly,” said Jonathan M. Winter, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College and the principle investigator in the study. “The Southeast is the exception to the rule.”…
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article200169249.html

    20

  • #
    Sean

    Fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice shame on me. Try to Fool me 6 times, What kind of fool do you think I am? (First class for all you old Nick Danger fans.)

    Climate Alarmists epidemize the definition of frustration, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. On the other hand, electing Donald Trump with his climate fraud platform IS a different result.

    71

  • #
    robert rosicka

    OT but the political landscape looks set to change for the worse now that the PM and Barnaby are trading barbs .

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      What a leftist Prime Minister, a leftist leader of the Nationals who agrees with him and a left Labour party all trying to compete with the very left Greens. How much worse can it get? The current conservative Prime Minister wants everyone to buy carbon credits. At least he is consistent in his belief that Goldmann Sachs should make more money.

      100

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Spot on Tdef and yes he does Graeme , I shudder to think what the make up of the next parliament will be but given the options it doesn’t really matter does it .

        20

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      RR:
      Is there no mess that Turnbull cannot make worse?

      100

  • #
    Kneel

    “… (called “hindcasting”),” said Mr. Pielke in an email.”

    Notice the subtle misdirect – “Mr” Pielke, because he is a “denier”. I’m sure it would have been reported as “Dr” or “Professor” if they got a quote from, say, Gavin Schmidt, or Jimmy Hansen, or another “believer”.

    You might think it makes no difference, but it does – that’s why they do it.

    91

  • #
    Kinky Keith

    This post highlights something important about what is going on.

    The absolutely massive resources allocated through the U.N. and the IPCC and the European Union and a multitude of national governments to the continuation of the Man Made Global Warming myth.

    The costs of running meetings, travel and advertising plus the occupation of, what I would imagine to be, a significant part of the U.N. building in New York all add up to obscene expenditure.

    Consideration of the other major aim of the U.N., the relief of human suffering and hunger, seems to have been pushed out of sight.

    Contrast this gigantic effort and expenditure with the low budget attempts to bring reality and truth back to the table.

    This blog is doing wonders within the financial and physical limits imposed on it as Roy and I comment on the previous thread:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/02/more-afraid-of-climate-change-yeti-than-going-to-jail/#comment-1982942

    The contrast between the resources allocated by our governments to push the CAGW Myth and those dedicated to examining the truth of the science behind that myth is staggering.

    Have we got a chance on a shoestring budget?

    KK

    82

    • #
      Another Ian

      Neither did Churchill till 1940

      50

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        We shall fight them on the beaches……

        Asymetric “warfare” is often effective…..

        Its intersting – you would be amazed at teh number of people silently thinking “yep that sounds right” when we discuss the proper science…many people know CAGW is pure nonsense, and it bolsters people up to hear the truth being spoken, amongst the green fog of lies that the spineless left vomit out on well meaning and decent people.

        Never underestimate how good the averages australians BS meter is – if you ignore the spinelss and clueless morally-challenged inner citty latte-powered alleged “intelligensia”, the average australian knows full well the planet isnt warming. Many of them work outside and can tell you point blank CAGW is pure horse manure……

        41

        • #
          Kinky Keith

          The whole scam is based on one mechanism.

          The idea that carbon dioxide is a heat trapping, “greenhouse” gas.

          Real science is quite clear: CO2 is NOT a heat trapping gas any more than any other gas and cannot be responsible for changes in Earth’s atmospheric temperature.

          All other debate around global warming is irrelevant, pointless and deceitful when this fact is ignored.

          Why is this fact not used as the basis of a court action against all of the “misdirection” of public funds justified by association with the CAGW scam.

          KK

          32

  • #
    pat

    ***”transparency campaigners”, not “climate campaigners”? lol.

    15 Feb: ClimateChangeNews: EU, US business lobbies seek closer access to UN climate talks
    Business Europe and the US Council for International Business are calling for a direct channel to influence the review process for national climate targets
    By Arthur Neslen
    In a submission to UN Climate Change’s Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) on 30 January, Business Europe, which represents industry confederations in 28 EU states, called for a conduit to the top table…

    “We feel that there are many good business ideas to tackle climate change that might not always be reaching negotiators,” the group’s communications director, Peter Sennekamp, told Climate Home News.
    “It would be helpful for negotiators to have a direct contact with business representatives in a more formal matter. Therefore, to assure that information reaches them in a timely and consistent manner, we believe that having a recognized focal point is crucial.”
    BusinessEurope’s submission resembles a Ukrainian proposal (LINK) for bringing energy corporates into UN climate talks that Climate Home revealed in November…

    ***Transparency campaigners oppose giving business interests closer access to the talks, however, seeing them as a barrier to ambition.
    Jesse Bragg, a spokesman for Corporate Accountability, described the proposal as “giving the fox a doggy door to the hen house”…
    “Those responsible for the climate crisis should not be writing the rules for how we address it,” Bragg said…
    SUBMISSION…READ IB
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/15/eu-us-business-lobbies-seek-closer-access-un-climate-talks/

    00

  • #
    pat

    15 Feb: Carbon Pulse: Australia releases ETS-like draft design for National Energy Guarantee
    Australia’s Energy Security Board (ESB) on Thursday released a draft design proposal for the National Energy Guarantee that included many of the same elements found in intensity-based emissions trading schemes.

    behind paywall:

    16 Feb: AFR: Ben Potter: National Energy Guarantee: discussion paper only scratches surface
    The Energy Security Board’s discussion paper on the National Energy Guarantee shows the ESB has begun to recognise “the complexity of the beast it has created” but made no progress in resolving it, says Bruce Mountain, director of Carbon + Energy Markets.

    further excerpts:

    16 Feb: MacroBusinessBlog: Turnbull’s NEG begins to fall apart
    By Houses and Holes in Carbon Economy
    from AFR:
    The ESB paper released Thursday posed 79 questions to be resolved before the design of the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) can be completed, altered some of the key language in the initial discussion paper released four months ago, and breezed lightly over carbon trading and climate change.

    One key change is that language suggesting the NEG’s reliability obligation could require retailers to buy “fast starting and slow start but longer running resources” has been dropped in favour of a requirement that retailers contract to meet “reliability gaps” forecast by the Australian Energy Market Operator.

    Mr Mountain said this change didn’t address fundamental flaws in the design of the NEG – placing reliability and carbon emissions reduction obligation on retailers and major energy users that participate directly in the National Electricity Market, and requiring them to acquit their obligations via contracts that can’t be physically honoured in the NEM.

    That’s because the NEM is a mandatory pool that all market participants have to buy and sell into regardless of any contracts, and most contracts today are pure financial contracts that do not specify the source of the electricity or its emissions, Mr Mountain, who has previously criticised the NEG, said.
    “They are doing no more than throwing their hands in the air and saying, ‘what do you think about how this will work?’. They have provided no explanation about how it will work in a mandatory settled contract pool,” Mr Mountain said. END

    This is a wholesale electricity market wrecker. The NEG will never see the light of day. It is a political fig leaf for failed carbon policy.
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/02/turnbulls-neg-begins-fall-apart/

    20

  • #
    Dennis

    It sort of reminds me of the too many repeat movies on free to air television these days, after a while we realise we are watching yet another repeat and the older it gets the more dated the costumes, the plots and the dialogues.

    40

  • #
    Norman Church

    For many years now, when hearing these endless prognostications of doom, I have not been able to prevent myself from thinking of a wide eyed zealot standing on a street corner wearing a sandwich board that says, “Repent now. For the end of the world is nigh!

    Perhaps I have been tipped over my tipping point.

    60

  • #
  • #
    Another Ian

    Do their emission calculations have this in them?

    “Japanese Supervolcano Has 2000 feet of Dome Lift”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/japanese-supervolcano-has-2000-feet-of-dome-lift/

    41

    • #
      PeterS

      One really large supervolcano would do many orders of magnitude more damage to our climate than even the worst the alarmists can come with their falsified theories on CAGW. The reason they don’t worry about the risks of a supervolcano is they can’t profit from it and instigate their Stalinist like regime change across the world.

      42

  • #
    What Class?

    it would then be necessary to remove carbon dioxide from the air at a massive scale — but that, too, is highly problematic.
    Problematic? I don’t think so, the planet’s greening itself like mad.

    40

    • #
      TdeF

      Good point. So the planet is reacting with carbon capture on a massive scale? Why do we have to do anything? More food, more shelter, more water retention, greener pastures, greener forests, more rain, more evaporation, milder climates, more oxygen and in time more oil, more gas, more coal. All the fault of evil humans. Sounds like a disaster, for the IPCC.

      30

  • #
    iainnahearadh

    There is one fundamental problem with Co2 management from the perspective as put forward by the Alarmists.

    At or around 200ppm, which is to say, (equal to 200 parts per million) by volume of the atmosphere, the Planet Earth dies. Literally.
    At or around that level, all Flora, all Fauna, even the Roaches and Rats have ceased to exist.

    All that is left at that level of Co2 is some slime, some fungus and some similar forms of single celled amoeba.
    That’s what dominate lifeforms will survive.
    During the previous ice ages, Planet Earth has teetered dangerously close to that level.

    Now, as we are to understand it, the global average temperatures, should we all go down to the Pub for the Afternoon and forget about it, will achieve Queensland Spring time Temperatures, globally, on average.

    The worst case scenario, is that we have to live through what the average South East Queensland citizen does through summer.
    I did this without issue for Ten years.
    Life was cheap, my wardrobe consisted of Shorts and Singlets or Tee shirts, should I want to dress formal.

    I can see how this would be a catastrophe for some. However, end of the world, no, not by a long mile.

    The major increase predicated in such temperatures that are in the higher end of this IPCC alleged problem range is the Bali average in summer.
    Yet, most of the world enjoys Bali in Summer. Odd that.

    Then we have the dread levels of Co2 in the atmosphere.

    One of the most prolific era’s in history for Flora and Fauna was the Jurassic period. More than million difference species of Dinosaurs. Some of the biggest Flora ever recorded.
    In fact, there was more than enough Flora to feed millions of herds of millions of Dinosaurs, both omnivores and herbivores.

    However, what is truly impressive was the number of higher order Carnivores that also roamed there way around the landscape and could make no dent in the omnivores and herbivores population levels.

    More so when you consider that the Tyrannosaurus was little more than middle ranking carnivore that varied between Five and Forty Feet in length and up to Fifteen Tons at Maturity.
    This was a two legged Land Shark, that not only couldn’t eat it’s way to extinction but had to compete with much larger or smaller and more savage and numerous, carnivores.

    One can but wonder if the average Co2 level at the time, that being around 1200 to 1800 PPM was a contributing factor to the giant explosion flora an fauna, which has never been seen since.

    Although, as anybody who has ever studied ancient history knows, this marvellous period was entirely outdone by the prior period, the Triassic.
    By comparison with it’s junior following era, the Flora and Fauna was massive, but then, so was the Co2 content, which was around 1800 to 2400 PPM and if estimates are correct, somewhat higher..

    So, we are given a choice between a South East Queensland style summer future, with more food and animals than we can count or eat, or freezing our butts off in a frozen hell, also known as an ice age, or a good variation of one, which seems to be that default planetary temperature and status, absent all else, with the added benefit of the entire planet dying off for a lack of plant food, also known as Co2.

    Then the powers that be wonder why they can’t be taken seriously and are held in great contempt.

    41

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      iainnahearadh:

      A million different species of dinosaurs? I am not saying you are wrong but so far we’ve only found less than 1500, which is quite small for 180 million years. The finds are biased to the larger animals and it is only the recent finds in China/Mongolia that have shown the diversity of dinosaurs.
      T. rex 15 tonnes at maturity? The largest specimen found has been calculated at 9 tonnes, and that by Americans who are annoyed if their creatures aren’t the biggest and/or best. And it was towards the end of the expected lifetime.
      CO2 levels 1200-1800ppm. I thought it was settled that the CO2 levels in the Jurassic were 1800-2700 ppm. with the rise in the level being associated with a drop in temperature. Still it was warmer then and with more CO2 then plant growth would have been spectacular.

      As for the increase in CO2 I think we should turn The Precautionary Principle back on the alarmists and maintain that higher CO2 levels would be better if we drop back into an ice age.

      21

  • #
    neil

    1990′s IPCC We are at the tipping point if we don’t fix it by the end of the decade there is no return.

    2000′s IPCC We are at the tipping point if we don’t fix it by the end of the decade there is no return.

    2010′s IPCC The pause in warming was a glitch and we are at the tipping point if we don’t fix it by the end of the decade there is no return.

    2018 IPCC What pause in warming you are miss reading the corrected data we are at a tipping point if we don’t fix it by the end of the decade there is no return.

    Since it’s inception in 1946 the UN has been trying to get it’s hands on 0.7% of the developed worlds GDP (in the entire world only Gillard was stupid enough to give it to them). First it was war reconstruction then cold war arbitration ten global poverty and for the past 30 years global warming and climate change since the world stopped cooperating and refused to warm. What next global unemployment due to automation? The next ice age?

    Same objective new catastrophe.

    40

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Also, the same, over the top, stupidity! Guess why government schools stopped teaching “The Boy who cried Wolf too often”? If that had continued, even an ordinary third grader could see through their propaganda.

      Education is too important to be left to the government to manage. Governments have no interest in humans living and thriving. Their interest is more government by any means possible. It is always expanded coercive power and control and shrinking individual choice. The so called public space expands while the private space shrinks until there is no thriving and eventually no living.

      The very real catastrophe approaching us is the vanishing of the ability to say no in such a way the government cannot evade and overpower. The interesting thing is that government needs us much more than we need it. When we become extinct, government ceases to exist. Yet, it is government that is driving us to that unenviable abyss. Hence the over the top stupidity.

      30

  • #
    toorightmate

    There is an IPCC Conference coming up soon.
    It should be interesting and cover some recent innovations.
    It is on “In Pit Crushing and Conveying”.

    00

  • #
    pat

    15 Feb: Bloomberg: In Free Trade U-Turn, Modi Raises India’s Import Duties
    by Archana Chaudhary & Anirban Nag
    Less than a month after he declared to the World Economic Forum that India was open for business, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has raised import duties to their highest in three decades, setting the stage for a protracted trade war.
    As he prepares to seek re-election next year, Modi has been ensnared by a global wave of protectionism that could threaten the foreign direct investments India needs to achieve double-digit growth. He has made it more expensive to import parts for automobiles, cameras, televisions, electricity meters and smartphones, risking trade disputes from allies like the U.S. and Germany to rivals like China…

    “This can escalate at the WTO,” said Rahul Shukla, Delhi-based executive director at Pricewaterhouse Coopers Pvt. “If they really want to help local industry there’s so much more that could be done, and it’s true that industry needs help. But these are the highest barriers we have seen in a long while.”…

    India’s move comes as it faces the widest trade deficit in more than 4 1/2 years and a resilient rupee. Data from the government on Thursday showed trade gap in January was $16.3 billion, the widest since May 2013. India’s yawning deficit with Asian powerhouse China is a matter of concern…

    Finance minister Arun Jaitley announced in his Feb. 1 budget speech that the barriers would push the government’s flagship ‘Make in India’ program to encourage local manufacturing…
    The barriers will remain in place for another two-to-three years to help small and medium companies, said Vanaja Sarna, chairwoman of India’s Central Board of Excise and Customs in an interview.

    But the move may end up hurting local businesses, said Bipul Chatterjee, executive director at New Delhi-based think tank CUTS International.
    “A hike of 15 to 20 percent is not much for Chinese and South Korean companies — they can easily absorb it. This will end up hurting Indian competitiveness more than the government imagines,” he said.
    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/02/14/in-free-trade-u-turn-modi-raises-india-s-wall-of-import-duties

    20

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      And pat, India put a 70% tariff on imported PV solar cells without the MSM noticing because they were too busy abusing Trump for his 30% tariff. Nor did they notice the EU’s second tariff rise.

      20

  • #
    pat

    scary?

    To Survive, These Animals Must Lose Their Camouflage
    In Depth· The Atlantic· 16h ago

    15 Feb: CarbonBrief: Daisy Dunne: Animals with white winter camouflage could struggle to adapt to climate change
    Animals that turn white in the winter to hide themselves in snowy landscapes could struggle to adapt to climate change, research suggests…
    Species most at risk of standing out against the snow include mountain hares, snowshoe hares and short-tailed weasels. Without blending into the background, these animals could find it harder to hunt prey or hide from predators…

    not so much:

    15 Feb: Science Daily: ‘Evolutionary rescue’ areas for animals threatened by climate change
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180215141801.htm

    15 Feb: Deutsche Welle: Ruby Russell: Evolution to the rescue for white-coated critters caught out by climate change
    Animals that grow a white coat in winter are at risk from predators as summers lengthen and snow cover retreats. But they could evolve faster than you might expect, according to a new study.
    The hare’s seasonal transformation is a genetic trait carried only by certain members of the species. There are also populations in warmer climates that keep their brown coat all year.
    Evolutionary hot spots
    “This is a genetically adapted trait,” Mills explained. “They are evolved to turn white in the north, and at the high elevations where there’s snow — predictable seasonal snow — and they remain brown in the south and at the lower elevations.”

    Most importantly, there are “polymorphic zones” where both strains live side by side. Mills and his team hope this will allow interbreeding to help the hare evolve out of its dangerous winter-white trait…
    http://www.dw.com/en/evolution-to-the-rescue-for-white-coated-critters-caught-out-by-climate-change/a-42588948

    00

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      pat:
      What about all those Gullible Alarmists parading around in polar bear suits? Will they become extinct? I hope so.

      10

  • #
    NuThink

    Has the IPCC explained the Paris floods of 1910. See the photos.
    I would hazard a guess the CO2 levels were much lower then.

    https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/paris-flood-1910/

    00

  • #
    William H. Haas

    There is nothing more important for the IPCC to do then to make an accurate determiniation of the climate sensivity of CO2. For more than a decade the IPCC has been publishing the exact same range of there guesses as to the climate sensivity of CO2. So after more then two decades of effort they have learned nothing. The time has nome to stop wasting money of them.

    The AGW conjecture seems quite plausable at first but a more in depth analysis of it uncovers very serious flaws I would like to add global warming as another reason to conserve on the use of fossil fuels but the AGW conjecture is based on only partial science and cannot be adequately defended.

    The AGW coinjecture depends upon the idea that the insulation effects of the atmosphere is caused by a radiant greenhouse effect caused by trace gases in the Earth’s atmosphere with LWIR absorption bands. According to the conjecture these so called greehouse gases provide a radiant greenhouse effect that keeps the surface on the Earth on average 33 degrees C warmer than it would be otherwise. Calculations were made decades ago that a doubling of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere would cause a global temperatuere increase of 1.2 degrees C, ignoring any feedback effects. The change in global temperature caused by a doubling of CO2 is known as the climate sensivity of CO2. One scientist has pointed out the these radiametric calculations failed to take into consideration that a doubleing of CO2 would cause a slight decrease in the dry lapse rate in the troposphere, enough to decrease the climate sensivity of CO2 by more than a factor of 20. So instead of a climate sensivity of 1.2 degrees C, we have a climate sensivity of less than .06 degrees C.

    Then there is the issue of feedbacks. According to the AGW conjecture, CO2 based warming will cause an increase in H2O in the Earth’s atmosphere which will cause even more warming because H2O is also a so called greenhouse gas with LWIR absorption bands. In fact, for those that believe in a radiametric greenhouse effect, H2O is by far the primary greenhouse gas. Molecule per molecule, H2O is a stronger absorber of IR then is CO2 and there is so much more H2O in sthe Earth’s atmosphere then is CO2. H2O averages between 1 to 2 percent in the Earth’s atmosphere globally while the level of CO2 is nomaly .04 percent. H2O based warming will cause more H2O to enter the atmosphere so much so that the possible effects of CO2 is insignificant.

    What the AGW conjecture totally ignore’s is that besides being a so called greenhouse gas, H2O is a major coolant in the Earth’s atmosphere moving heat energy from the Earth’s surface to where clouds form via the heat of vaporization. The over all cooling effect of H2O is evidenced by the fact that the wet lapse rate is significantly lower than the dry lapse rate so instead of the feedback effects of H2O amplifying the warming effects of CO2 by a factor of 3 that the AGW conjecture likes to assume, more realisticly H2O attenuates the warming effects of CO2 by a factor of 3, yielding a climate sensivity of CO2 of less than .02 degrees C, which is a trivial amount.

    There is no real evidence in the paleoclimate record that CO2 has any effect on climate. There is evidence that increased temperatures result in more entering the Earth’s atmosphere which is because warmer oceans do not hold as much CO2 as cooler oceans but there is no real evidence that the increased amounts of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere have caused any warming. There is no evidence in the paleoclimate record that CO2 has any effect on climate.

    A lot of work has been done with climate modeling. The IPCC has been supporting a plethora of climate models with the hope that they will provide evidence of the warming effect of CO2. The large number of these climate models is evidence that a lot of guess work has been involved. These large number of models have generated a wide range of results but thay all seem to have one thing in common. They have all been wrong. They have all predicted global warming that has not iaken place. These models all have the idea, that more CO2 causes warming, hard coded in which begs the question and renders the results useless. If anything these computer models show what would happen if CO2 did cause warming but becaue the results have been wrong if these simulations provide evidence of anything it is that added CO2 is not the cause of global warming. On the other hand others have generated models that show that the climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which mankind has no control.

    A real greenhouse does not stay warm because of a radiametric greenhouse effect caused by greenhouse gases. A real greenhouse stays warm because the glass decreases cooling by convection. It is a convective and not a radiametric greenhouse effect that keeps a real greenhouse warm. So to in the Earth’s atmosphere. There exists a convective greenhouse effect caused by gravity and the heat capacity of the atmosphere that keeps the surface of the earth on average 33 degrees C warmer that if would be otherwise. All gases in the Earth’s atmopshere contribute to tis effect. This convective greenhouse effect is totally ignored by the AGW conjecture. 33 degrees C is the warming effect derived from first principals and 33 degrees C is the amount that has been measured. There is no additional warming caused by a radiant greenhouse effect. A radiant greenhouse effect has not been observed in a real greenhouse, on Earth, or anywhere else in the solar system. The AGW conjecture depends upon the existance of a radiant greenhouse effect but such a radiant greenhouse effect is science fiction. Hence the AGW conjecture is nothing but science fiction. This conclusion is all a matter of sceince.

    There may be many good reasons to be conserving on the use of fossil fuels, but climate change is not one of them.

    00