JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper


Advertising

Australian Environment Conference Oct 20 2012


micropace


GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



A few facts on Flannery, Climate Council, and prophecies of bushfire: no long trends for Katoomba

Flannery and the Climate Council are at it again — trying to scare money out of people with their prophecies of bushfires. They are milking the fear factor from the October fires in the Blue Mountains, telling us disaster planning means we have to get “the facts straight”.

Let’s get the facts straight on exactly how human emissions of CO2 have affected the temperature and rainfall in the Blue Mountains of New South Wales. How much hotter and drier is the climate? Ninety percent of human emissions have been produced since WWII. Katoomba has the longest running temperature series I could find in the BOM records -see below. But where is that rising trend? The string of hot years in the late 1930s appears to be just as hot as the last decade.  The 1920s and 30s look a lot like the 1980 and 90s.

The facts about Katoomba annual temperatures

Source: Katoomba annual mean temperature

see also Katoomba October mean temperatures

 

But wait, the Climate Council tells us “Hot, dry conditions create conditions favourable for bushfires. Australia has just experienced its hottest 12 months ever recorded.” Any sane person would assume the Blue Mountains must be getting drier –  strange the Climate Council don’t provide a graph on that. Let’s look at the drying climate in Katoomba.

 

 Source: Katoomba annual rainfall

See also the same trends in  Blackheath annual rainfall and Lithgow annual rainfall.

In other words Katoomba has a noisy annual rainfall, there is no obvious trend, there have been dry years and wet years, and if heat and dryness make fires worse, then there is no sign that CO2 makes any difference.

In Katoomba at least, the late 30s and 40s appear to be a bit hotter, and also drier than the last few years. That was when CO2 levels were ideal.

Climate scientists used to tell us that only the long term trends mattered. What the Climate Council does is not science. They are simply stringing keywords together, confounding concepts, and cherry picking any disaster anywhere, to whip up a scare just like the local tribal witchdoctors used to. There is no chain-of-evidence to link CO2 to bushfires. Mere conjecture and broken models. But don’t wait for the Climate Council  to tell you the facts that matter.

Severe bushfires in October are not unusual. The ferocity of the fires was not unprecedented. The ignition points for some of the Blue Mountains fires were not due to CO2 but to arson and an accident in the Army. Fuel loads are the factor we most need to discuss.

EXTRA INFO:

Obviously Katoomba is only one record in the region. I wanted more. But long term temperature records in the Blue Mountains are hard to find. Other records are short (and flat): Mt Boyce   Penrith Lakes   Richmond RAAF (none of them are long enough). Going further, Mudgee is long and cooling, but ends in 1995 moved to the airport. Bathurst Airport shows the opposite trend.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 10.0/10 (5 votes cast)
A few facts on Flannery, Climate Council, and prophecies of bushfire: no long trends for Katoomba, 10.0 out of 10 based on 5 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/od5hajs

154 comments to A few facts on Flannery, Climate Council, and prophecies of bushfire: no long trends for Katoomba

  • #
    Safetyguy66

    If your a punter and you bet on “form”, you wouldn’t back Tim to predict the next sunrise.


    Report this

    500

    • #
      LevelGaze

      Spot on, SG66.

      We could all have made millions betting against every prediction Flannery ever made.

      He’s put up (yet again) this catalogue of lies in Fairfax, and as far as I can see online comments are not allowed. I urge everyone to write to Fairfax editors (not that you’ll get your letter published – I’ve tried) to expose this barefaced conman and his fellow criminals. Don’t stop there – write to the Murdoch press, your MP, your local newspaper, the teachers at your school, anyone who has any degree of clout in any arena.

      They’re on the ropes, now we have to wrestle them to the mat and kick them in the balls. Only then will the game be over.


      Report this

      562

    • #
      Redress

      Not only Flannery…

      BOM for my forecast area over the last 10 Days:

      90% chance of 1-5mm….well between 30 and 65mm…………..official 45.6mm, 57.4 over 3 days.
      then
      90% chance of 1-5mmm………0mm, nothing.

      Dear BOM, if you cant forecast 10 days ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


      Report this

      240

      • #
        Manfred

        Meanwhile in another Galaxy not far away…

        Sunday’s snow fell so heavily in Philadelphia that yard markers at Lincoln Financial Field — where the Eagles beat the Detroit Lions — were completely obscured. It was almost as bad in Pittsburgh, where the snow intensified after the opening kickoff.

        Philadelphia fan Dave Hamilton, of Ivyland, layered up for the game in Eagles gear.

        “Twenty-seven years I’ve been a season-ticket holder, I’ve never seen snow at the game like this,” he said. “It just kept coming down.”


        Big storm dumps snow on East Coast, travel dicey


        Report this

        100

        • #
          GAZ

          Snowing in Philadelphia? It’s snowing in NSW Snowy Mountains. In December!


          Report this

          130

        • #
          ROM

          Meanwhile and in line with Manfred’s comment above;
          From P Gosselin’s NoTricksZone blog Alberta Canada Sees Avalanche Of New Record Lows … “Glacial Temperatures” … Edmonton Sees -39°C!

          Cold is gripping globally, and not only in the US or Antarctica.

          The French language http://www.hebdometeo.com here reports that in Alberta: “Temperatures Saturday in the Canadian prairies were glacial and that many cold records fell.”

          The report writes that Edmonton bottomed out at -39°C thus smashing the old record of -37°C set in 2009, also a time of supposedly intense global warming.

          No wonder the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) feels so desperate to roll out once again its bogus model claims that all the cold is due to Arctic warming!

          At Brooks, Alberta the mercury fell to -42.2 °C. The old record was -38.3°C set in 1977. With the wind chill factored in, the temperature felt like -52°C, the hebdometeo site writes.

          And for the IPCC aficionado’s, Tall Bloke has had a Christmas present delivered, the IPCC AR5: Synthesis Report Pre-First Order Draft

          PDF; CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT

          PRE- FIRST ORDER DRAFT – INTERMEDIATE WORK VERSION FOR INTERNAL USE
          3 December 2013

          After a quick scan through the report as above, the usual IPCC doom, gloom and disaster from rising global temperatures and increasing CO2 are once again and in the usual catastrophists fashion, are a foregone conclusion.
          There does not seem to be any comment on the benefits to food production, energy use, health and welfare and so many other aspects for life on this planet which an increase in both temperatures and CO2 would impart particularly if instead of a temperature increase, there was a decline in future global temperatures which now seems increasingly likely, a factor and a possibility far beyond the reach of the microscopic imaginations of the zealots of the IPCC.
          A cooling climate possibility that the IPCC has most studiously avoided in preference to concentrating totally on a full on alarmist attitude to at the most, a very modest and most likely very beneficial warming across the planet


          Report this

          80

      • #
        macha

        I love seeing BOM reports indicating 50% chance of rain or 50% chance of being hotter or drier this summer. ie we may as well be flipping a coin!! The UK BOM does it too.
        Why have so complicated modelling if all we get us a 50:50 bet each way?
        Its pure nonsense.


        Report this

        60

  • #
    Big_Nambas

    I lived in North Springwood (Winmalee)in the 1980′s. My parents sold their 15 acres and moved to Sydney as the council would not allow them to clear the property enough to make it fire safe. I remember as a boy walking in the gullies in dry bark, leaves and sticks up to a meter deep, the fuel load was huge. Nothing has changed, no clearing, not enough proscribed burns and too many greenies.


    Report this

    570

  • #
    King Geo

    Professor Tim Flannery was awarded a PhD for a thesis on “fossil kangaroos” and was also named Australian of the Year (2007) primarily for his work on Climate Change Science (most of which is 100% wrong) – I am stunned and “hopping mad” that he was named Australian of the Year. Surely there were numerous other Aussies more deserved of this prestigious award. Then again Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize and also an Oscar for “An Inconvenient Truth”. I am speechless.


    Report this

    582

    • #
      Safetyguy66

      Credit to “thingadonta” of http://australianclimatemadness.com/2012/03/08/flannery-out-of-his-depth-as-flooding-rains-return/

      Some things Flannery has claimed and got wrong:

      -in the 1990s in the book the Future Eaters he claimed that Australia shouldn’t invest in mineral resources because they were in decline and likely to run out soon. They have since boomed.

      -in 2011 in the book the Natural History of Planet Earth he claimed that mineral deposits (he doesn’t say which ones) are created by microorganisms taking minerals out of sea-water-on behalf of Gaia- to make the oceans clean, which are then sometimes uplifted and taken out the hills to poison the water again by miners. Most mineral deposits are formed by nature itself-by tectonic and magmatic (i.e. volcanic) processes, and have nothing to do with microorganisms in the sea. In fact in the entire book, about the geology of the earth, he doesn’t mention volcanoes hardly or at all, because in general volcanoes (which are natural) do not generally sit well with the ideology of the green movement. How you can write a book about the geological history of the planet without mentioning volcanoes is beyond me. He also suggests and support the idea that Gaia made the crust through the action of microorganisms as a kind of shell, and the atmosphere as a kind of cocoon, which we are now destroying. He also claims mining is the biggest threat to humans and the environment, (his standard few pages against mining in virtually every book he writes so as to pander to the prejudices of the green left, something bad must be said about big, bad, evil mining which is going to make the sky fall down and destroy the world. He never once mentions what mining does for Australia, and the world in general (e.g. funds for hospitals, schools, welfare etc), nor that societies are simply unsustainable without it).

      Other things about the climate science community and the 7 year drought 2002-2009:

      -They suggested that global warming, being caused mostly by humans, was causing a permanent shift to drier conditions in Australia. They say this so that more desalination dams are built, and less dams (at least 2 were mothballed-one in Victoria, one in NSW), using taxpayer funded money (most of which comes from mining, which they are also generally against).

      -The Murray Darling river system they claimed was in dire straits, during the 7 year drought, again, they claim, being caused mainly by humans causing a shift to permanent drought. (It promptly flooded the last 2 years). They assumed, like a really bad investor, that a past trend simply means that such a trend will continue. Perhaps, instead of taking money from the taxpayer, every climate science initiative has to involve personal money invested by climate scientists-I wonder then if they would be investing their own money buying back water for the now naturally flooded Murray-Darling Basin.

      -Tim Flannery claimed the dams would never be full again, partly because of the permanent shift to drier conditions, and partly because the soil was too hot (the have since nearly all filled and flooded). Never have I seen a reputable scientist be so stupid, and so out of balance. If he cant correctly assess the (lack of) relationship between soil temperature and water runoff, then how can he correctly assess the relationship between something like CO2 and temperature. (The answer is he can’t, he has made a career mostly out of pandering to the prejudices of the left (you know green good, mining bad; renewable energy good industrialisation bad ; irrigation and dams bad desalination plants good etc etc), which is now causing him trouble when people are actually checking his now defunct claims).

      -They claim the drought was unprecedented, it wasn’t. There was a 7 year drought from 1895-1902 called the Federation Drought, and Plimer has showed longer droughts up to 10 years or more which have occurred further in the past.

      -They failed to acknowledge that the drier conditions and less cloud cover was also contributing to the apparent temperature warming, the 7 years of drought were particularly warm partly because there were less clouds and less rain. They never mentioned this anywhere, attributing the 7 year warm period to humans and C02, without looking at the cloud cover. The last 2 years have been noticeably cooler in Australia, which they now correctly note is partly because there is more clouds and more rain. (So when its cooler it’s because of clouds, but when its warmer it’s not because of less clouds, but because of C02).


      Report this

      582

      • #
        Maverick

        Jo, i would like to get in direct contact with Safteyguy66, my email is j…@b.. etc

        can you please provide my address to him

        Thanks
        J…

        ———

        OK. Email sent. Jo


        Report this

        00

      • #
        Andrew McRae

        Another thing he predicted which hasn’t exactly gone “as projected”… geothermal electricity. In a quote from an Oct 2007 interview he did in America just after winning Australian of the Year…

        And we’ll know by Christmas, I think, whether this can be successfully done. The second drill bit is now deep in the earth. It’s getting close to those hot rocks. And if we can get circulation happening of the hot fluids, as projected, then we will have unlocked an enormous energy resource at about the price of coal. And that will change everything for Australia.

        And how long would it last?

        If you run the whole Australian economy on it, it will last at least a century. And that’s the one deposit, you know.

        Yes, according to Geodynamics’ last AGM presentation, geothermal energy is definitely the future of electricity supply… for Honiara, not for “the whole Australian economy”. And their Australian rig’s possible planned next-stage output is… 10MWe. I guess the “the whole Australian economy” will have to shrink to fit, eh?

        Despite being on the Pacific rim of fire, the hot rocks that are hot enough, shallow enough, and close enough to customers to be worth drilling are so few and far between that GDY has already had to buy out a Vanuatu company that already owned geothermal exploration rights for the capital island Efate. I guess when Timmah has finished powering-up the little Pacific islands he’ll move up to “the whole Australian economy” in due course.

        Arguing for a government-mandated price to be put on CO2 emissions to nobble Big Coal while you’re a major shareholder of a geothermal project wouldn’t be a conflict of interest at all, that’s just Timmah being ahead of the game and leading from the front on fighting climate change.
        Maybe if Timmah has been very good this year he’ll finally get his Christmas present?
        On closer inspection, and despite all the positive news coming out of Geodynamics, Timmah is set to receive a lump of coal in his stocking from GDY. It might generate more power than his hot rocks!


        Report this

        20

    • #
      ian hilliar

      You are not the only one who was stunned when the Flanneried Fool was awarded Australian of the Year. The look on PM John Howard’s face said it all.


      Report this

      60

  • #
    turnedoutnice

    Flannery needs to be put in the stocks as a lesson for others.


    Report this

    312

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Perhaps we need to ask Jo to put up a post that has the five most ludicrous predictions Flannery has made. and how they turned out?

      Then, as a crowd sourcing project, get the regulars here (and any ring-ins we can find), to add to the above list in the comments, followed by observations of how each one turned out.

      The aim of this exercise would be to get to a hundred failed predictions, all of which were fully documented.

      That will give Jo, and anyone else who is prepared to donate some time and expertise to assist, sufficient information to put into a book, the proceeds of which could go to the chocolate box.

      Any takers?


      Report this

      310

      • #
        Dave

        Rekeke,

        I’ll give it a go:

        Here’s a start, Number 1. Tiny but relevant.

        1. “We had our first donation in last night from James in Perth – $15,” Dr Flannery told Breakfast this morning. ABC
        2. “We had our first donation from James in New South Wales for $15 at midnight” Tim Flannery said on the ABC.

        This is only a tiny example of the BULLSHIIT that this bloke spreads. The lies are so frequent, he forgets about the facts.

        I’ll collate as much factual BS spread by this nutjob, and hopefully make an Encyclopedia style book that Jo could market as an e-book. Jo has my details, but I can collate the lies in an excel file, that link to a word document on each as proof of the events? Help needed here or suggestions of layout or method.

        There are so many, but with the Climate Commission website gone, there will have to be a bit of back in time machine work.

        All donations to Jo.


        Report this

        252

      • #
        Tim

        Here’s a few starters:
        star comment

        2004 “I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis”.
        2005 “droughts could leave Sydney’s Dams dry in just two years.”
        2007 “Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months” and ” I think it’s too late for debate now”, and “Carbon tax is the way forward”
        2007 “even the rain that falls will not fill up the dams”.
        2008 “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009” and “in five years there’ll be no Arctic ice cap“.
        2009: “Our fifth-largest city, Adelaide, may be out of drinking water next year.”
        2012 “heatwaves, made worse by concrete, asphalt and buildings, will cause deaths and violence in western Sydney.”
        2012 “climate change cannot be ruled out” (as a factor in flooding rains, which led to some of his predicted dry dams overflowing.)
        2013 “…there has been no plateau.” (15 year warming pause)


        Report this

        442

        • #
          Maverick

          brilliant Tim, but it would be better if you can quote and screen snap for later. The creen snap will be needed for when they deny it and the “way back machine dont work anymore”


          Report this

          90

          • #
            Bob Campbell

            22 September 2008 – It’s still there Tim! People say a lot of silly things.
            http://www.abc.net.au/tv/enoughrope/transcripts/s2369164.htm
            ANDREW DENTON: You said that as Australians we are unaware of the seriousness of our predicament. How serious is it?
            TIM FLANNERY: It’s a lot more serious than I thought when I met you in 2003. All of the key indicators of the the climate system really are changing well in advance of the computer modelling. So, if you look at the data for the decay of the Arctic ice cap for example, that is just moving so quickly now. I mean last year was the worst year ever. People are saying, you know, that instead of the ice cap lasting a century, that maybe in five years there’ll be no Arctic ice cap. So you can’t look at things like that without seeing that we are in deep trouble.


            Report this

            100

            • #
              Greg Cavanagh

              “People are saying…”.
              Naturaly I, Tim Flannary believe everything that people say. Unless I don’t like what they say, in which case I don’t believe what they say.

              “for the decay of the Arctic ice cap…”. What an astonishingly poor choice of words.


              Report this

              30

        • #
          AndyG55

          1. Perth can cope if it manages its water better.. yes it does have storage and rainfall issues.

          2. Adelaide gets a largish proportion of water from the Murray, so yes, in 2007,8 it did have supply issues on the horizon. But the Murray has run very dry before, nothing to do with climate change, just bad planning.

          Probably Perth and Adelaide are the only places that desal makes sense.

          3. Sydney was never in any water crisis, with the deep draw system being brought on line, and auxiliary dams to the south still holding several years or supply. Welcome Reef would have been a good augmentation 20 or so years ago. Still would be the logical next step.

          4. Brisbane would have had genuine water issues if the drought had continued.. again.. bad planning, build a storage dam, ffs !!!

          5. Melbourne.. build the Mitchell River dam if you want to provide for further population expansion.

          ALL the issues with water supply for the capital cities can be placed directly as “bad planning” and the Green’s hatred of dams, which meant that logical engineering augmentations had been stifled.

          Green FOOLISHNESS strikes again !

          They should GTF out the way, and let the country progress !


          Report this

          140

        • #
          Bulldust

          I think a web page to each prognosticator and all their misfires as you listed them would be brilliant. Why people listen to them is beyond me. I work in forecasting as part of my job (Government budget forecasting) and know how sketchy any forecast model is. Difference is, I am the first to admit it and acknowledge where the risks (i.e. sources of greatest potential variance) lie. These shysters talk as if they know the future with absolute certainty. Anyone sucked in by that kind of claptrap is a danger to themselves and those around them.


          Report this

          20

      • #
        Apoxonbothyourhouses

        It’s basically already all there in Professor Plimar’s book. And he, the Prof, is reported to have the PM’s ear though any imparted wisdom seems to have got lost in the political shenanigans that are Canberra. By all means give it a go but I fear that until there is a major catastrophe nothing but nothing will happen of any consequence. [Would the ABC report if the Thames froze over?] “They” are not listening. More on my self help therapeutic ramblings can be experienced at 9.1.1.1.1. Be assured it cuts down time on psychiatrist’s couch.


        Report this

        70

      • #
      • #
        Allen Ford

        I have grave fears that this project could easily run off the rails and eclipse the efforts of John Brignell regarding the consequences of Global Warming™.

        Timbo simply does not deserve the renown of Excellence in Doomcasting.


        Report this

        10

    • #
      Dave

      turnedoutnice

      Simple but true, in this latest report he reports the following:

      1. One estimate of the future economic costs of bushfires indicates that with no adaptive change, increased damage to the agricultural industry in Victoria by 2050 could add $1.4 billion to existing costs.
      2. A warmer climate increases the chance of lightning which is a key factor in starting fires.
      3. Climate change is making hot days hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent.

      Each one of these is a lie. So I’ll start with his agricultural Armageddon:

      1. Mildura and Swan Hill have received about 150 per cent of their average December rain in the past 24 hours severely affecting grain harvests. And then there is this, frosts in mid Spring in Victoria had a significant impact on canola crop production. Spring rain in Western Australia and Victoria has helped push Australia’s winter crop production forecast for 2013-14 up by 12 per cent to 42.1 million tonnes.

      Now to lightning,

      2. So CO2 causes increased lighting? Lightning is a key cause of bush fires?
      Tim Flannery is lying through his teeth on this one. Here is LIST of the causes of bush fire over last 20 years for Victoria alone which happens to suffer the most lightning strike caused bush fires. If we could stop man made causes of bushfires, then the rduction could be close to 60% or more, but Timmy wants to control lightning.

      3. CO2 is making hot days hotter, how do you counter this sort of bultisch? I cannot even attempt to counter Flanneries stupidity here so I won’t.

      So in summary, I concur with you:

      Flannery needs to be put in the stocks as a lesson for others.


      Report this

      230

      • #
        crakar24

        I watched a show abut lightning the other day and the latest theory is that galactic cosmic rays allow lightning to occur (more detail if anyone wants it) so a quiet sun allows more GCR’s which means more lightning.

        Once again “its the sun stupid” trumps co2


        Report this

        71

    • #
      Another Ian

      The ducking stool every time it rains mught be better IMO


      Report this

      30

  • #
  • #
    Safetyguy66

    Milne warns of a “hotter, wetter world”

    http://www.greens.org.au/christine-milnes-national-press-club-election-address

    Flannery says it will be drier.

    http://australianclimatemadness.com/2012/03/08/flannery-out-of-his-depth-as-flooding-rains-return/

    Like 2 startled children standing near a broken window, with a cricket bat in hand, they need to get their stories straight before the adults arrive and start asking questions.


    Report this

    351

  • #
    Peter Miller

    Part of the deal of living in semi-arid climates with forests is that you will have fires from time to time. The longer the period between the fires, the more catastrophic they will be.

    That’s the end of it, no need for any more discussion, except……

    Ill conceived greenie rules and regulations always make the situation worse than it needs to be.


    Report this

    301

    • #
      Safetyguy66

      If it wasn’t for the fact that utter ineptitude and ideological blinding, adequately explains how the green movement can live in a vacuum of both logic and facts. One might be tempted to speculate that perhaps they know opposing good forest management practices, will create elevated bushfire risks and thus eventually provide them with some ammunition for their illogical arguments about “carbon did it!”

      But that particular conspiracy theory is undermined by the certain knowledge that they couldn’t organise a decaf, soy, fair trade, sustainable latte in a central Melbourne café.


      Report this

      261

    • #
      Ceetee

      They call themselves “Green” but are ironically the most environmentally ill informed twits around. Imagine having the arrogance to try and control a natural regenerative process millions of years in the making to suit a devious political end. Round them up and send them to the EU (reverse penal colony strategy). Lots of seats available on that gravy train to hell still up for grabs. Meanwhile we here in the antipodes should prepare ourselves for a mass migration of poor Europeans in the years to come, by the Jumbo load.


      Report this

      182

      • #
        Peter Miller

        if you look at the European parliament you will find it festering with ecoloons.

        Just last week they voted for the most draconian set of regulations on fracking, which is the Euro zone’s almost only hope for economic salvation. Hopefully the Council of Ministers will now overrule this crass stupidity.

        Sadly, I cannot think of any green initiative whjch made any sense. The global warming crusade is a case in point. The squandering of such huge resources on such an obvious non – problem will mystify our descendents.


        Report this

        170

    • #
      Manfred

      Jo stated:

      Fuel loads are the factor we most need to discuss.


      star comment

      The following quote from the NSW Greens Bushfire Risk Management Policy Summary document:

      While recognising that controlled burning is only one form of bush fire risk reduction, The Greens have not been responsible for restricting its use.

      In the downloadable full document, the NSW Greens Bushfire Risk Management state more fully their ‘principles’ (truncated here, my bold):

      1. Assumptions about traditional European bush fire prevention, mitigation, control and management need review in the light of the need for ecologically sustainable management.

      2. There is an urgent need to correct the common misconception that responsible fire management always involves burning or clearing to reduce moderate and high fuel loads generally throughout the landscape, irrespective of where they occur. Rather, such activities should be strategically planned, to protect the community and vulnerable assets whilst minimising the adverse impacts of these activities on the environment.

      3. Stricter controls are required to drastically reduce the amount of rural burning not required for essential asset protection.

      4. Prescribed burning is only one method of fuel management and should
      be considered in the context of other available options….

      5. Many vegetation communities and plants cannot survive frequent fire; for this reason frequent fire has been listed as a key threatening process by the NSW Scientific Committee under the Threatened Species Conservation Act.

      6. Further, many vegetation communities can undergo severe decline in biodiversity with long term fire exclusion. Ecologically appropriate fire regimes are required to maintain biodiversity and functioning ecosystems.

      9. Education and community awareness material needs to focus especially on the threat to the environment and property of inappropriate use of fire, particularly burning which is too frequent,extensive in area, of excessive intensity, badly timed or carelessly implemented.

      Of the ‘goals’ of the policy, possibly the most inhibitive is (17) because it provides an arbitrary ‘Green’ brake on any activities whatsoever. What is ‘adequate’? Do ‘all activities’ include any human presence? Bluntly, it is the strategic vagueness of their lingua franca that permits them to ‘get away with murder’.

      “The carrying out of adequate environmental assessment on all activities or works proposed to be undertaken in accordance with a bush fire risk management plan;”

      NSW Greens Bushfire Risk Management state in the ‘details’ of the document:

      22. When applying the guidelines for development in bush fire prone areas under the Australian Standard Planning for Bushfire Protection assessments must ensure that the requirement to clear vegetation is kept to a minimum where alternative engineering solutions will provide the required fire protection;

      I think it is clear that there a complete uncouple exists between the NSW Greens Bushfire Risk Management Policy Summary document and the full downloadable document. The more public face of the Summary document is obfuscation.

      Do they think hope people won’t look at the full document?


      Report this

      161

      • #
        Apoxonbothyourhouses

        Yes and “people” here includes the MSM.


        Report this

        70

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        2. There is an urgent need to correct the common misconception that responsible fire management always involves burning or clearing to reduce moderate and high fuel loads generally throughout the landscape, irrespective of where they occur. Rather, such activities should be strategically planned, to protect the community and vulnerable assets whilst minimising the adverse impacts of these activities on the environment.

        I can’t follow the logic of this statement. I sounds like; a need to correct the misconception that fire management involved burning or clearing. Rather such activities should be planned.
        I can’t read any new information in the statement at all.

        3. Stricter controls are required to drastically reduce the amount of rural burning not required for essential asset protection.

        Why? No explanation as to why.

        4. Prescribed burning is only one method of fuel management and should be considered in the context of other available options….

        What are the other options?

        5. Many vegetation communities and plants cannot survive frequent fire; for this reason frequent fire has been listed as a key threatening process by the NSW Scientific Committee under the Threatened Species Conservation Act.

        Are the “many vegetation communities and plants” that cannot survive frequent fire, in fire zones?

        9. Education and community awareness material needs to focus especially on the threat to the environment and property of inappropriate use of fire, particularly burning which is too frequent, extensive in area, of excessive intensity, badly timed or carelessly implemented.

        What? Back burning is done by Forestry and Council’s. Who does it badly timed, or carelessly implemented?
        Are you talking about appropriate use of fire (aka, burning), or accidental fires, or perhaps even lightning strikes which account for the majority of rural fires anyway.


        Report this

        60

      • #
        Annie

        Talk about ‘vagueing it up’. This was the advice once given to my other half by a civil servant in regard to a report that was a bit too clear and honest. It seems that ‘vagueing it up’ is even more in vogue these days. Sir Humphrey Appleby would be delighted.


        Report this

        00

  • #
    Rick Bradford

    Lying and misleading in the service of a Greater Good is meat and drink to people like Flannery of the Green/Left.

    Look at it this way: if Australia’s climate isn’t getting any worse, then there is no need for anti-CO2 measures and punishment of the “biggest polluters”, which effectively means helping (by removing burdens on) successful companies.

    To the Green/Left, success is never caused by merit, it is caused by exploitation and unfairness.

    So data that shows no change in Australia’s climate is helping “exploiters” to profit, and that must be resisted as deeply immoral.

    It’s quite simple, really.


    Report this

    182

  • #
    PeterS

    Still waiting for fraudsters like him and Gore to be put behind bars.


    Report this

    212

    • #
      MemoryVault

      Still waiting for fraudsters like him and Gore to be put behind bars.

      Yeah, well don’t hold your breath.

      Flannery (not to mention Karoly, Chubb, Braganza, Steffen and a multitude of others) still has his mouth firmly clamped on the public teat via his tenured, taxpayer-funded university position, Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” is still being shown as a factual documentary in our schools, Greg Hunt, our new, “conservative” Minister for the Environment, is still pushing for a global ETS, and our taxpayer-funded national broadcaster publishes state secrets with impunity while airing photoshopped pics of a prominent conservative sodomising a dog.

      And our newly-elected “conservative” PM doesn’t have a problem with any of it.

      .
      At this rate Flannery will probably pick up the “Australian of the Year” gong again, for 2104.


      Report this

      181

      • #
        Dave

        MV,

        Let’s see if collectively we can stop this from happening in 2014, and maybe for ever. (Read Rereke’s comment 1st)

        Even have sub sections for “Karoly, Chubb, Braganza, Steffen and a multitude of others

        I don’t have a long time, but I have plenty of time on my hands until then, and I would love to have a hand in nailing this collection of garbage. I feel better already.

        The “NAIL FLANNERY INCORP” Club. Or “NFI” for short. “No Pharquing Idea”

        Remember this junk by Flannery that sprouted for the Presbyterian Church of Australia in the State of New South Wales General Assembly 2007 labelled Christianity and the Environment:

        Here’s what he said:

        Tim Flannery, the director of the South
        Australian Museum and 2007 Australian of the year and author of
        The Weather Makers, warns that to do nothing about climate
        change makes the collapse of civilisation inevitable. According to
        Flannery action needs to be taken now to slow global warming.
        “The delay of even a decade is too much” he says.
        The ABC Science programme ran a story on Australia in
        conjunction with Flannery’s nomination as Australian of the year
        reporting that in order to avert biological disaster, he argues the
        coal industry should be shunted aside and alternative power
        sources be used to establish a desert metropolis.
        “We need to decarbonise the economy extremely rapidly,”
        (Flannery) said.
        Asked whether this approach would cripple the country’s
        economy, currently riding a commodities boom thanks to North
        Asia’s hunger for Australian resources, Flannery was unmoved.
        “Won’t the Australian economy collapse if climate change
        continues?” he said.
        “There are a lot of ways to make electricity. Burning coal is
        just one of the more antique and stupid ways of doing it. We’ve
        got solar [energy], we’ve got wind, we’ve got geothermal.”
        Although Flannery subsequently said he wasn’t arguing for the
        immediate closure of the coal industry, Senator Bob Brown,
        leader of the Australian Greens has subsequently advocated
        phasing out of all coal exports – Australia’s largest export dollar
        earner which employees 26,000 workers – within the three year
        term of one government39.
        “Australia must urgently kick the coal habit and get on with
        what Australian of the Year Tim Flannery calls a war footing in
        terms of investing in solar, geothermal and other efficient
        technologies.”

        There’s so much stuff the Flim Flam Man has sprouted, it’s all on the web.
        He’s a Fruit and has to to be harvested. :)


        Report this

        232

        • #
          MemoryVault

          .
          Dave, I agree 100% with the sentiments expressed by you and Rereke.
          The point of my comment was what, realistically, do we do about it?

          Unless and until you have a government and/or a media prepared to get on board, you’re whistling Dixie.
          The media have already indicated they are not going to change. Calamity sells. Good news doesn’t.
          Australians voted to change the government, but we still ended up with a bunch of tree-huggers vote-buyers anyway.

          So what next?
          I’m too old now for guerrilla warfare.


          Report this

          140

          • #
            Apoxonbothyourhouses

            Thanks for that Memory and put me in the same disillusioned basket. Jo’s.blog is generally the like minded chatting to the like minded which is about as much use as a milk bucket under the proverbial bull.
            I regularly write to my MP but he has no real power in the political corridors and those in the corridor are not really listening to the likes of us – or even Jo.
            Western style democracy is failing the people; leadership and vision have been swamped by vested interests and reluctance to take tough decisions for fear of losing votes. And when the Coalition looses the next election they will never accept or understand that it was their failure to lead that was the prime cause.


            Report this

            100

        • #
          Safetyguy66

          Geodynamics who are the most advanced (in terms of their operations) geothermal company in operation in Australia right now are really not doing much.

          I have been involved with GDY since about 2007 via a company I worked for who provided a lot of their camps and equipment in the Cooper Basin. I considered buying into them back in about 2009 when they were around 80c-$1 per share. My employer said “wait and see”. Lucky I listened because they are now trading at 8.2c so I dodged a bullet. Unfortunately the Australian tax payer wasn’t so lucky with around 10 million (that I know of) having been invested so far. Not sure if Flannery is still a shareholder (I hope so) but he was a major one for a while. Which also of course begs the oft asked question, how has this guy not been prosecuted for conflict of interest by touting renewables and encouraging tax payer investment while being a shareholder??

          GDY have done pretty well considering the emerging nature of the technology in Australia, but they are still a long way from being a serious power generator.

          http://www.geodynamics.com.au/home.aspx

          Their marketing hype has been spruking that they will be a major generation player any day now for years. Origin did no re-invest at the last opportunity, I think that probably says a lot.


          Report this

          80

          • #
            Brett

            I’ve seen it reported as $90 Million.

            “Flannery repeatedly promoted this “straightforward” technology, and in 2009, the Rudd government awarded $90 million to Geodynamics to build a geothermal power plant in the Cooper Basin, the very area Flannery recommended. Coincidentally, Flannery has for years been a Geodynamics shareholder, a vested interest he sometimes declares.”


            Report this

            10

  • #
    Yonniestone

    Yep the warmists will use short term data as undeniable proof of AGW then scream foul when it’s used against them, a real catch 22 if you will, and just like that book these characters will piss and moan about their lot in life while others are left to do the bloody work so they’ll be OK in the end.
    Apparently these people are on our side, if so I can’t see it, all I see are people committing fraud and treason against our sovereignty and therefore should be arrested then prosecuted accordingly.
    It sounds simple but I won’t hold my breath as murderers walk free everyday.


    Report this

    100

    • #
      PeterS

      You are right about not holding your breath as the corruption and fraud is deeply rooted everywhere. It even has some roots in the LNP, thanks to Turnbull. Although there’s some slim chance in the distant future that leaders of the AGW scam might end up behind bars, I won’t hold my breath too. It may take so long that the culprits will be long gone and forgotten, and we are well into the next scam. That’s a shame since there’s already so much evidence to find them guilty beyond any reasonable doubt in a court of law. However, as you implied, even murderers and child molesters are let off too easily these days. So what chance is there for a judge to rule appropriately against AGW fraudsters? Very little I’m afraid. Look at the tobacco companies when they were taken to court. They almost got away with it, and they would have if it weren’t for the whistle blower. The AGW scam is much bigger because governments are involved. It’s even still possible we will lose out eventually and the AGW scam will take over our lives. I would not rule that out just yet. Even a mini ice-age can be used in their favour. All they have to do is come with new fraudulent research to link CO2 with colder climates, and call it something like AGC.


      Report this

      81

  • #
    handjive

    Meanwhile …
    Over at environmentalgraffiti.com, a pro-global warming site:
    3 of the stupidest global warming solutions of the year 2007-
    #1. Mimicking a volcanic eruption a.k.a. Chucking mounds of sulphur into the atmosphere

    Yes, congrats are in order for Tim Flannery for “the stupidest global warming solution“, who said in 2007 at the UTS-20 Inagural:

    “The way we may do that is simply by adding sulphur into jet fuel.
    Most modern jets fly in the lower part of the stratosphere, so releasing sulphur into the atmosphere at that level would be an efficient way of dimming our planet.
    Now the consequences of that sort of experiment, they’re unknown …”

    Many bonus quotes in that speech, like, “The uncertainty in the projections raises from maybe there’ll still be some ice left by 2040, to maybe all the ice will be gone as early as 2013“.


    Report this

    90

    • #
      Winston

      releasing sulphur into the atmosphere at that level would be an efficient way of dimming our planet

      I think Tim’s mere presence is dimming the planet sufficiently, thank you very much.


      Report this

      130

      • #
        KinkyKeith

        Hi Winston

        You forgot to mention the “Acid Rain” that would possibly occur after Sulphur is dumped in the air.

        But maybe I’m jumping the gun. Are there any chemists who can shed light on this?

        Does there have to be an SO2 precursor from combustion before H2SO4 can form?

        KK


        Report this

        30

        • #
          Carbon500

          Kinky Keith: you ask ‘Does there have to be an SO2 precursor from combustion before H2SO4 can form?’
          I have a book (2nd ed.) entitled ‘Air Pollution’ by Jeremy Colls, who is a Reader in Atmospheric Environment at the University of Nottingham here in the UK.
          On p394 he says ‘…sulphur dioxide interacts with sulphate particles to make it hard to separate the health effects of one from the other. The emitted SO2 is converted in the atmosphere to SO3, which then combines with water vapour to create ultrafine droplets of H2SO4. This sulphuric acid aerosol is eventually neutralised by ammonia, via the strong acid ammonium bisulphate (NH4HSO4) to the nearly neutral salt ammonium sulphate (NH4)2SO4. The resulting particles are typically 0.5 to 1.0 micrometers in size, putting them in the accumulation mode with long atmospheric residence times and high penetration into the respiratory system. Hence there is always a division of the sulphur between these solid, liquid, and gaseous species. The exact partition depends on the history of the emissions in the airmass, critical factors being residence time, photochemical conditions and sources of ammonia (high over agricultural areas, medium over urban areas, low over water bodies)’


          Report this

          40

          • #
            KinkyKeith

            Thanks C500.

            I must admit I did not read the original comment by Hand-jive too closely and the Flannery comment that both referred to.

            Had I done that it would have been obvious that SO2 would have resulted from the distribution system proposed by TF and that solid sulphur was not on the menu.

            Your outline after SO2 hits the air is great and points to the complexity of our biosphere.

            Of course, in the end, this is just another solution to a Non Problem, as is the rest of the CAGW Hysteria.

            :)

            KK


            Report this

            50

            • #
              Carbon500

              Thanks KK – extending the SO2 thinking, I’ve often wondered what happens to CO2 in the atmosphere in terms of association with water vapour.
              I can’t imagine that it just floats there inertly, given that ‘clean’ rain is slightly acidic with a pH of (if I recall correctly) around 5.4 – hence my usual rant that no-one seems to have done any work in a laboratory to study CO2 and water vapour at varying concentrations.
              Any more information welcome!


              Report this

              10

              • #
                KinkyKeith

                Hi C500

                I have a very old memory of CO2 going to H2CO3 in the presence of water vapour.

                It even balances.

                Could stand corrected, but I think CO2 does dissolve.

                KK


                Report this

                00

  • #
    Norman

    Safety guy 66
    “Tim Flannery claimed the dams would never be full again, partly because of the permanent shift to drier conditions, and partly because the soil was too hot (the have since nearly all filled and flooded). Never have I seen a reputable scientist be so stupid, and so out of balance. If he cant correctly assess the (lack of) relationship between soil temperature and water runoff, then how can he correctly assess the relationship between something like CO2 and temperature. (The answer is he can’t, he has made a career mostly out of pandering to the prejudices of the left (you know green good, mining bad; renewable energy good industrialisation bad ; irrigation and dams bad desalination plants good etc etc), which is now causing him trouble when people are actually checking his now defunct claims).”

    Much more serious is the flooding of Brisbane and death of 14 people and billions of dollars in losses due to the then Qld Labour governments pandering to the AGW drivel and not releasing water from wivenhoe dam based on this cretin’s/ejits permanent drought ideas. The guy should have been prosecuted. Fortunately I left Australia a long time ago.


    Report this

    171

    • #
      janama

      You think he’s a problem, I have to deal everyday with the goons who believe his bullshit! they are all over the social media attacking the current government because of the ant’s nest he fired up and Tony Abbott is not attending to.
      Give me a break from the Australian Flannery goons please!


      Report this

      120

    • #
      AndyG55

      SEQld should have built TWO dams, one for storage and one for flood control.

      You are always going to have issues if you expect a dam to do both these things in Australia’s NATURALLY highly variable climate.

      Sort of like using a storage dam for hydro power, sooner or later there must be a crash point !


      Report this

      70

      • #
        Apoxonbothyourhouses

        If the claims litigation underway succeeds I suspect the payout will be greater that the cost of that second dam. Dunno if there will be any real winners other that the lawyers. However it does reconfirm that our politicians have never understood the maxim “do it once and do it right”.


        Report this

        60

      • #
        gnome

        No AndyG- one big dam can do the job of both, and Wivenhoe is a big dam.

        The real problem is the disconnect between the size of the dams and the requirement they satisfy. PA Yeoman pointed out in the 1950s, that any dam that still held water at the end of the longest drought in its district’s history is bigger than it needs to be- ie it cost more to build than it should have. We seem though, to have a mindset that we must retain as much water as possible and panic when the dams get low.

        It might be a natural way to behave in some parts of the country, but to expect a long drought in SE Queensland is just perverse.


        Report this

        21

        • #
          AndyG55

          No gnome.

          Wivenhoe has serious shortage issues before the 2010 rains, so much so that they were considering treating sewage and adding it to the upper catchment rivers, and they wasted heaps of money on a desal plant.

          If that period of low rainfall had continued for another year or so, SEQ was in deep trouble. They got lucky, the dry period ended.

          Then it had serious issues when used as a flood mitigation dam.

          It functioned VERY BADLY in both cases. (regardless of mistakes in management)

          And ANYONE who is stupid enough to build a dam only just big enough to last “the longest drought” in Australia when that dam has to service a major city, has truly got rocks in their heads.


          Report this

          22

          • #
            Greg Cavanagh

            What forward planning do you apply to that ideal dam size gnome?
            A 30 year population projection? 50 maybe? Can you justify any answer?


            Report this

            10

            • #
              AndyG55

              Hi Greg,

              Its to do with probabilistic rainfall simulation based on gauged stream flows.

              In the most up-to-date software this links in with what is called multi-objective optimisation to determine “better” options for headworks topology and rules of operation.

              If you ever have time, try reading Australian Rainfall and Runoff.. Lots of coffee needed. !

              If you want I can give a brief run-through on the procedures used, but probably not today.


              Report this

              10

              • #
                Greg Cavanagh

                I am well familiar with AR&R. I’ve been using it for urban catchment stormwater designs for the last 29 years. Admittedly never used it for dam designs, though I have designed retention basins and retardation basins.

                So then; is your dam a water supply or a flood retardation structure?


                Report this

                00

              • #
                AndyG55

                “So then; is your dam a water supply or a flood retardation structure?”

                They are contrary options.

                A full dam will not retard even a small flood.

                And an empty dam, which could retard a large flood, cannot supply water if that flood doesn’t eventuate.

                You can of course try to juggle a middle ground as they did with Wivenhoe….. that worked well didn’t it. ;-)


                Report this

                10

  • #
    Eddie Sharpe

    Is FIre Brigades Union more concerned with its members, or with costing up with the Greens ?

    Fire Brigade Employees’ Union NSW Secretary Jim Casey said Prime Minister Tony Abbott must better resource firefighters and act on climate change.
    He said Mr Abbott was prepared to “drape himself in the flag of firefighters” during the recent Blue Mountains bushfires but wasn’t prepared to act on the root cause of the blaze.

    drape himself in the flag of firefighters


    Report this

    60

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Eddie this seems to be the opinion held by the CFA here in Victoria http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/climate-change-means-more-severe-fires-cfa-20131025-2w7d5.html
      At Monckton’s address I attended there was a CFA volunteer who spoke of the organizations shift to green policy and propaganda, he was visibly upset when describing the policies and incidents that he witnessed taking place and even questioned if their job was to preserve life or endanger it.
      People in this country will have to decide whether they blindly accept the authority of bureaucratic NGO’s or grow a pair and stop the further erosion of their rights and freedoms.
      It beggars belief that people we know will dutifully carry out these crimes on Australians but as Pointman brilliantly pointed out to stop this we need to find the real Bastards.


      Report this

      91

  • #

    [...] A few facts on Flannery, Climate Council, and prophecies of bushfire: no long trends for Katoomba [...]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Dave Trimble

    Joanne,

    To put things in perspective, especially for us Yanks, I added inches and feet to the annual rainfall graph. I wish our yearly water was this high in California. Wow!

    Bottom to top it would show:

    118.05″ = 9.83 ft
    98.375″ = 8.19ft
    78.70″ = 6.55ft
    59.025″= 4.91ft
    39.35″ = 3.28ft
    19.675″ = 1.64ft


    Report this

    40

  • #
    janama

    Sorry Dave – only America deals in Feet and inches.


    Report this

    12

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Not strictly true. Janama.

      Myanmar (Burma) and Liberia still use the Imperial system. The UK does as well, but indirectly. They still sell milk in pints (but call it 600ml); jam is sold in jars (but call it 454gm), and almost everybody in Britain measures their weight in Stones. A lot of road signs still show distances in miles (as do milestones). Flour (for bread making) is still sold in bushels. Eggs are sold by the dozen. And you can still buy nuts and bolts with a Whitworth thread, measured in thousandths of an inch. Imperial measurements are still legal in Britain. Internationally, horses are still measured in hands, and nobody calculates time on a metric system, because it just doesn’t work.


      Report this

      30

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Oh yes, and ships and boats still measure their speed in knots, as one of my sailing colleagues points out.


      Report this

      20

      • #
        Mark F

        Um, aircraft also use knots for speed, and nautical miles, don’t they? Pretty good fit with navigation / lat / long.


        Report this

        10

      • #
        Manfred

        Just for fun and OT:
        In general aviation we speak of airspeed in knots. We measure fuel in litres or gallons and altitude in feet. Aircraft weight and balance is given in kg or lbs. We measure pressure in hPa not ‘inches of Hg’. Horizontal distance (separation) in the air and horizontal visibility are stated in Km.

        Finally, the three most useless things to a pilot are:
        The amount of runway behind you.
        The height above you.
        The amount of fuel you had at take-off.

        Happy Christmas to one and all, and yet again many thanks to Jo. In many ways this has been a glorious year. It has been a privilege to have been an infinitesimal part of this robust community.


        Report this

        50

    • #
      Annie

      I was always irritated by the insistance by BBC reporters on using metric to describe distances instead of our perfectly familiar imperial measurements. BTW…I’m not such a dinosaur as not to be familir also with metric; I understand and use kilos and kms etc in the countries where they are used but also miles where they are used, and so on. I thought that UK cookery books that gave measurements in grams (with lbs and ozs in brackets!) were plain ridiculous. You’d need a chemical balance to weigh to the nearest gram when this is an unhappy conversion from ounces!


      Report this

      00

  • #
    Doug Proctor

    Your note about the causes of fires intrigued me. It is true that if a fire didn’t start, there was no fire: a tautology, but an important one for statistics. We ASSUME that fire frequency is independent of cause, that the conditions for a fire are sufficient for a fire to occur. But if “anthropogenic” causes are statistically important, then an increase in arson or accidents will skew the stats.

    The relevant statistic for fire frequency and severity is some adjusted stat of “naturally” caused fires. Essentially, lightning strikes. For all the human-caused, you’d have to adjust for the time periods of the fire and post-fire, for those times lightning WOULD HAVE caused a fire but couldn’t because one was already going or the fuel was already burnt.

    So what we want is a statistical comparison of numbers of fires, severity of fires AND INCIDENCE of human-caused fires. Then we would normalize the number and severity of the fires for human-caused.

    I can’t say what the result would be, but I CAN say that the result would be less fires and less severity of damage than what is presented as evidence of Australian climate changes.


    Report this

    50

    • #
      AndyG55

      Would probably want to adjust for population extent as well. Human habitation has a large effect on the surrounding area, and vice versa, particularly when you have so-called “leafy” suburbs, full of eucalypt trees !!


      Report this

      30

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      The majority of fires in Australia are lightning.

      I have no idea what the percentages are. But you can bet your last dollar altering CO2 in the atmosphere will not affect the frequency of fires.


      Report this

      20

    • #
      Tim

      Surely it couldn’t be from more vehicles? Too simple?

      From the US:
      The EPA has received reports of vehicle and vegetation fires in which catalysts were involved from both vehicle owners and from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), an organization which has been monitoring the frequency of such incidents with individual manufacturers. In some cases, it appears that combustible undercoating material had been applied to the catalyst and other exhaust system hardware. In most cases, vehicles were also reported to have been running badly with evidence of nonfiring spark plugs or other ignition system defects. If an abnormal amount of unburned fuel is fed to any catalyst, which occurs when the engine is misfiring in one or more cylinders, the catalyst will attempt to “do its job” by burning this fuel instead of simply expelling it out the exhaust pipe as the case with older cars. When this happens, the surface temperature of the catalyst container and the exhaust pipe can become abnormally hot, possibly leading to charring or burning of undercoating inadvertently sprayed on the catalyst or exhaust system, charring of floor mats in the car, or ignition of dry vegetation if the vehicle is operated off-road. Vehicle service manuals caution against applying undercoating on the catalyst of exhaust systems.

      And then there is broken glass magnifying suns rays. It goes on…


      Report this

      00

  • #
    AndyG55

    Jo. Have you got that .pdf with all those rainfall maps that I sent you. Its a bit big to put anywhere for upload that I have access to.

    Its quite interesting with respect to rainfall patterns in Australia…

    And just like un-adjusted temperature data shows that nothing untoward or unprecedented is happening to temperatures,
    there is also nothing much happening to rainfall either. (Expect around you area where there was a definite downward step in the mid 1970′s)


    Report this

    10

  • #
    Bruce

    Can’t understand what all the outrage is about.

    What would one expect the “Climate Council” to say?

    Nothing to worry about?

    Were they to try that line how many donations would they get.

    Even so, I suspect the donations will dry up pretty soon.


    Report this

    30

    • #
      Tim

      I don’t think the large global green NGO’s would let an Aussie propaganda machine fade away. They have plenty of money to ‘donate‘ to this mob, directly or indirectly.

      When do we see the books?


      Report this

      20

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    The green scum always floats to the top of the pond. You would think that with it in such plain view it would be recognized and could easily be skimmed off and disposed of. But not so.

    I fear what is just under the surface that we don’t see but is the real driving force.


    Report this

    41

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      It’s easily recognised Roy, but there is none with integrity to clean the mess up.

      The MSM are more scummy themselves than the scum they report on. So no help there.


      Report this

      30

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        Ah yes! The key word there, integrity, is what it’s all about in the first place, is it not? Or to put it the other way, the lack of integrity is what it’s all about.

        As I’ve been arguing several times already, to change society you must change the hearts and minds of the people in that society. And we’ve been going in the wrong direction for a long time. You cannot throw morality away and then hope things will be better. But that’s exactly what we’re doing.

        We are witness to a great tragedy.


        Report this

        20

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      To whoever gave me the thumb down:

      You can object all you want to but the truth will still be the truth. The analogy with pond scum has been around for a very long time to describe the dishonest among us. Actually pond scum is useful and beneficial in most cases, whereas the dishonest are not. So maybe we need a better analogy. But in any case, do a little honest thinking about what’s happening for a change.


      Report this

      10

  • #
    James

    If this following link works I urge you all to watch the video on WUWT. Then all sensible people should donate enough money for this air on regularly on prime time as an AGW commercial.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/06/denier-land-how-deniers-view-global-warming/?share=google-plus-1&nb=1


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Mike Smith

    This is what my old Dad (bless his socks) used to call “fraud”.

    Anyway, I’m just happy to be a denier rather than a fraudster!


    Report this

    70

  • #
    John

    I happened to be sitting in the Springwood Country Club that fateful Thursday and saw the actual start of the devastating Winmalee fire.

    It was caused by the fact there was hardly any rain for some weeks combined with a very strong hot westerly wind. The wind was so strong that it caused power lines to arc across trees at the back of Springwood Cemetery at the top of Linksview Road where there is lots of bush and away it went.

    Not sure if the BOM put out charts of wind speeds but you would probably find no trends in those either. You might find some trends however in the increase of above ground power lines to houses and failures of these in strong winds.

    I might add that since these fires there has been an extraordinary transformation back to green after lots and lots of magnificent rain. And there is no doubt in my mind if the Army had been a little more careful up at Lithgow and whoever was responsible for power line clearance and security in Springwood had been more attentive, we would not be going through all this fuss with alarmists like Flannery and Milne calling this the ‘new norm’.

    The only way to beat them is to keep on producing the facts in excellent articles and blogs like this one. Good work.


    Report this

    70

  • #
    Gbees

    The climate council is set up as an association I understand. It survives on donations. As such public officers of the association should avoid false and misleading statements. Time for the authorities to look at this association.


    Report this

    60

  • #
    Albert

    I’ve flown over most of Australia’s forests for decades. In the early days it was almost impossible to find roads going into the forests but now there are roads everywhere and more opportunities for arsonists, they can light the forest in many spots just off a road then bolt quickly


    Report this

    80

  • #
    Jarryd Beck

    I take it that Jo meant that Katoomba has the longest running record in the Blue Mountains area, because Observatory Hill in Sydney likely has the longest in the country. I don’t know how the BOM can tell us much about whether Australia had the hottest year/month/decade (take your pick) on record, because the records are quite abysmal.

    I was trying to analyse data about where I live, but the Penrith Lakes station only goes back to 1995, and Penrith has a remarkably different climate to coastal Sydney, despite only being 50km inland (or because of perhaps). So although Sydney might have had its hottest year on record, Penrith certainly hasn’t. But I can’t compare with anything before 1995, so it doesn’t say much.


    Report this

    30

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      I do hydrology at work for the local Council. There is significant variation in rainfall at the coastline, at the foot of the mountain range, at the top of the mountain range, behind the mountain range. About 18% difference in rainfall from the coast to behind the range. All of which could be within 30km East to West.

      The differences aren’t as pronounced North to South. There is about a maximum 5% variation in rainfall as you move South to North, varying area to area. The variations are mostly dependent on hills, rivers, and proximity to the range.


      Report this

      00

  • #
    pat

    ***as the carbon tax debate takes place in the Senate, Newspoll conveniently frames a poll thus:

    10 Dec: Australian: Dennis Shanahan: Tony Abbott ***loses his carbon tax edge, says latest Newspoll
    Support for the Abbott government has fallen steadily since the end of October but the three-point fall in the past two weeks was the biggest single drop. It followed the furore over Coalition attempts to cut $1.2 billion from school education funding…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-loses-his-carbon-tax-edge-says-latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226779290440

    which was it? the carbon tax or the school funding issue?

    another “carbon tax” mention re the Newspoll, yet how does a Newspoll affect the numbers in the Senate?

    pity Macdonald has his own ethical issues, but fun to see a backbencher with backbone on CAGW, tho why put “flat-earthers” at the start & suggest a “promotion” at the end? is one or the other “sarcasm”?

    10 Dec: Australian: Ben Packham: Newspoll puts Labor ahead
    Newspoll: TONY Abbott and the Liberals have lost their three-year carbon tax advantage over Labor, with support for the Coalition dropping to its lowest since 2011 to leave the opposition leading on preferences for the first time since the election of the Gillard government…
    Flat earthers: Who said Ian Macdonald was yesterday’s man? Here he is in the Senate yesterday: “I think this whole climate change debate will go down in history as one of the great frauds on the Australian people – similar to Y2K, I would suggest.” Give that man a promotion!
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/newspoll-puts-labor-ahead/story-fn59nqgy-1226779414499


    Report this

    00

  • #
    pat

    here the disillusion goes well “beyond the carbon tax”. voters want quick, decisive action on the “carbon tax”. Labor/Greens fight against the repeal and win over voters! got it?

    10 Dec: Australian: Dennis Shanahan: Dissilusion is growing beyond the levy lift
    The Coalition and Labor are back to where they were before Julia Gillard unveiled a carbon tax and drove her party into its longest, deepest loss of electoral support.
    The Prime Minister is now faced with the reality of growing disillusion from the electorate that goes well beyond the carbon tax. All his efforts to kill expectations before the election have fallen short; voters are expecting action – and quick action…
    As opposition leader, Abbott was able to use the carbon tax to destroy two Labor prime ministers and drive them both from parliament. As Prime Minister, he has been unable to break the Labor-Greens alliance on the carbon tax that continues to frustrates his plans in the Senate.
    At the same time, the distractions from the Coalition’s central message on repealing the carbon tax have been negative and either out of Abbott’s control or coming from within the Coalition.
    Abbott’s direct, clear and disciplined message from opposition, which gave him such advantage for so long, is not so easily achievable in government where distractions abound and voters expected sudden, decisive change.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/disillusion-is-growing-beyond-the-levy-lift/story-e6frg75f-1226779269534


    Report this

    00

  • #
    pat

    your daily AAP/CAGW story.

    ***leaves it to the last paras to quote a bushfire specialist:

    9 Dec: Age: AAP: Climate change will double need for fire fighters by 2030, Climate Council says
    At the report’s launch in Sydney, co-author Professor Lesley Hughes warned the “context” of fire in Australia was changing.
    “We’ve had since the 1960s … a doubling in the number of extreme hot days,” she said.
    “And when we get extreme hot days the risk of bushfires is greater.”…
    The report says that by 2030 the number of professional firefighters should double 2010 numbers in order to keep pace with the growing population and bushfire risk…
    Fire Brigade Employees’ Union NSW Secretary Jim Casey said Prime Minister Tony Abbott must better resource firefighters and act on climate change.
    He said Mr Abbott was prepared to “drape himself in the flag of firefighters” during the recent Blue Mountains bushfires but wasn’t prepared to act on the root cause of the blaze.
    Co-author Professor Will Steffen said that in the short term, governments must ensure fire services were adequately resourced to fight an increased number of fires.
    In the long term Australia needed to stop using fossil fuels and develop renewable energies to reduce carbon emissions, he said.
    ***Dr Christine Finlay, who has a PhD in bushfire research, says the “incredible surge of catastrophic fire activity” was due to policies that made it difficult to do preventative burns.”
    “You have to hire an environment impact assessment consultant … to make sure there’s no threatened or endangered species,” she said.
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-will-double-need-for-fire-fighters-by-2030-climate-council-says-20131209-2z18c.html


    Report this

    20

  • #
    pat

    so newspoll’s swing to Labor/Greens must be huge, if Essential were correct 3 December:

    2 Party Preferred 3 Dec 2013:
    Lib/Nat 52%
    Labor 48%
    http://essentialvision.com.au/essential-research


    Report this

    00

  • #
    pat

    follow-up to the ScottishPower story i posted on “Weekend Unthreaded”. i cannot believe our MSM publishes every unfounded CAGW scary story, no matter how ridiculous or impossible to prove, yet the public is “kept in the dark” (terrible pun) about truly SERIOUS problems & potential consequences of insane CAGW policies elsewhere:

    9 Dec: UK Telegraph: Britain faces blackouts next winter, energy boss warns
    Npower chief warns over blackouts as second supplier says carbon tax worsening situation by forcing coal-fired power plants to close
    The warning comes as another energy company, ScottishPower, today argues that the Government’s carbon tax makes Britain “even more vulnerable to the threat of blackouts”, and calls for it to be scrapped…
    Meanwhile, several large coal-fired power plants have shut this year under EU rules to curtail pollution, and more are due to close in the next few years because of the carbon tax. As a result, the margin between Britain’s peak winter electricity demand and the capacity of its remaining power stations is narrowing.
    “The amount of spare generation that is around at the peak day has gone down from about 15 per cent to about five per cent and I think next winter [it] will be even smaller,” Mr Massara told the BBC.
    “So will we get through this winter? Yes. Will we get through next winter? I don’t know.” …
    Mr Massara said he supported the “move to a lower carbon economy”, but said it must be done “in a way customers can afford”.
    “I think ultimately we may have to slow it down,” he said.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10504464/Britain-faces-blackouts-next-winter-energy-boss-warns.html


    Report this

    00

  • #
  • #
    pat

    8 Dec: Huffington Post: Zach Carter: Obama Faces Backlash Over New Corporate Powers In Secret Trade Deal
    The Obama administration appears to have almost no international support for controversial new trade standards that would grant radical new political powers to corporations, increase the cost of prescription medications and restrict bank regulation, according to two internal memos obtained by The Huffington Post.
    The memos, which come from a government involved in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations, detail continued disputes in the talks over the deal. The documents reveal broad disagreement over a host of key positions, and general skepticism that an agreement can be reached by year-end…
    Read the full text of what HuffPost received here…
    “These are not U.S. documents and we have no idea of their authorship or authenticity,” a spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said. “Some elements in them are outdated, others totally inaccurate.” The spokesman declined to specify which parts were outdated or inaccurate…
    New standards concerning access to key medicines appear to be equally problematic for many nations. The Obama administration is insisting on mandating new intellectual property rules in the treaty that would grant pharmaceutical companies long-term monopolies on new medications. As a result, companies can charge high prices without regard to competition from generic providers. The result, public health experts have warned, would be higher prices around the world, and lack of access to life-saving drugs in poor countries. Nearly every intellectual property issue in the November chart is opposed by a broad majority of the 12 nations. The December memo describes 119 “outstanding issues” that remain unresolved between the nations on intellectual property matters…
    Also according to the December memo, the U.S. has reintroduced a proposal that would hamper government health services from negotiating lower drug prices with pharmaceutical companies. The proposal appears to have been universally rejected earlier in the talks, according to the memo.
    Australia and New Zealand have medical boards that allow the government to reject expensive new drugs for the public health system, or negotiate lower prices with drug companies that own patents on them. If a new drug does not offer sufficient benefits over existing generic drugs, the boards can reject spending taxpayer money on the new medicines. They can also refuse to pay high prices for new drugs. The Obama administration has been pushing to ban these activities by national boards, which would lock in big profits for U.S. drug companies…
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/08/tpp-trade-agreement_n_4409211.html


    Report this

    10

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      In a true free market of medicine, PBS and Medicare would not exist. The problem here is not so much that this TPP draft is racketeering disguised as free trade, but that the pricing decision is moved outside of the political realm we have say in, so there’s no price negotiation by the buyer at all.

      The U.S. Power Structure and the Mass Media“.
      Frank Morrow. Ph.D dissertation, The University of Texas at Austin, 1984.
      Chapter 2, page 92.

      Regardless of the individuals, most of the institutions represented on the [Tri-Lateral] Commission are of the same type as is found in the Bilderbergers: the most powerful transnational companies, international banks, key governmental officials (particularly of the “up and coming” variety), influential law firms, representatives from Rockefeller think tanks, college professors who have the Rockefeller stamp of approval, and personnel from the Establishment press.
      [...]
      What are the aims of the TLC? The Commission speaks for itself (Frieden 1977, 14).

      The overriding goal is to make the world safe for interdependence by protecting the benefits which it provides for each country against the external and internal threat which will constantly emerge from those willing to pay a price for more national autonomy. This may sometimes require slowing the pace at which interdependence proceeds, and checking some aspects of it. More frequently, however, it will call for checking the intrusion of national governments into the international exchange of economic and non-economic goods.

      Those words are worth reading again, noting particularly the use of the words “internal threats” and the “checking of intrusion” into “non-economic goods”. What a chilling paragraph, particularly when it is realised that this group controls the most powerful economic institutions on earth and has political control over the Western capitalist governments, including the police, intelligence and military forces.

      Whether it’s medicines or any other goods, it’s ultimately not the Obama administration who “has been pushing to ban these activities by national boards”. It’s a long-established plan of the people who really run America and control most institutions of economic significance in the world stage. Obama is merely a temporary proxy.

      “Our own” Liberal-in-name-only Party chumps will turn a blind eye to this and sell us up the river as surely as any Labor or Greens government would do. They can no more question the political system they operate within than a fish can question swimming in water.


      Report this

      00

    • #
      Karl W. Braun

      For more information regarding intellectual property rights under the Trans Pacific Partnership, and Australia’s role in crafting these provisions, the following link might prove to be illuminating:
      https://wikileaks.org/tpp/


      Report this

      00

  • #
    Manfred

    In the same solar system, not far from here, and particularly for those that consider the sun has some role to play in the ‘settled science’, good ‘ol Sol isn’t behaving herself:

    The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument on NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover monitors the natural radiation environment at the surface of Mars. It can see the radiation from two sources, galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. This graph plots measurements made during the rover’s first 10 months on Mars. The observations have been almost entirely due to galactic cosmic rays, which contribute a slowly varying dose rate of about 10 micrograys per day…

    …Only one solar particle event has been observed by RAD on the surface of Mars, and it was rather weak. Researchers had expected to see more solar particle events, but for unknown reasons, the sun is currently much less active than during recent peaks in the solar-activity cycle.


    Report this

    10

  • #

    This is off topic I know, but it indicates exactly the point I have been attempting to make all along with Renewable power, and how it’s all about seeming, and that seeming gets reported, and people just naturally believe it because it has that aura of truth about it.

    It is however totally false, and the journalist reporting the story has no knowledge about it, and doesn’t bother to check, mainly because even he believes it, and his source for his article would surely be telling the true facts of that matter.

    Here’s the link to that article, and all the relevant truth is in that second sentence.

    Solar panels turn suburban homes into Queensland’s fourth biggest power station

    That sentence says this:

    New figures show the combined generating capacity of solar panels in the Sunshine State has hit nearly one gigawatt. That’s enough electricity to power 150,000 homes, a city the size of Cairns.

    That actually sounds like serious amounts of power, and again, not how they use that totally bogus X number of homes meme to make it sound even bigger, and that even add for emphasis the city of that size.

    So, One GigaWatt, or 1000MW. Now that is substantial.

    Is it really?

    The industry equivalent used in all case like this for the power consumption for an average home is 20KWH per day. (Some even claim higher to boost that total, even going as high as 22KWH per day, which then worked over a year is in fact quite a lot extra, considering that figure is then multiplied by the thousands of homes used in the end total)

    So then, for the actual total generated power, that calculation is:

    20KWH X 365.25 (days in a year, leap year added) X 150,000 homes gives us an end total of 1095.75GWH.

    Theoretical Total is Nameplate X 24 (hours in a day) X 365.25 (days in a year)so:

    1GW X 24 X 365.25 which comes in at 8766GWH.

    Capacity Factor is actual versus Theoretical which gives us a CF of 12.5%

    Again, this is also a theoretical CF based upon the hoped for generation data, but hey, I can work it out for that figure, and realistically, it would be lower than that even.

    So now we have 1GW of installed Nameplate Capacity, at a CF of 12.5%, which means all those 360,000 rooftop Solar panel Installations are generating the equivalent of 125MW.

    125MW.

    That is most definitely NOT the fourth largest power plant in Queensland.

    As those installations are spread out across the length and breadth of the Large State of Queensland, then not one traditional power plant in that State is supplying less power.

    Nearly all of that generated electricity is being consumed by the residences themselves, because the average sized unit is slightly less than 2KW only. So, very (very) little power is being fed back to the grids across the State for use in other consumption areas.

    As to supplying a city like Cairns, I feel absolutely certain that Cairns requires power for more than 3 Hours, (that 12.5% Capacity Factor)

    The average person reads an article like this and thinks that rooftop solar power is in fact making a difference.

    It’s not, and on top of that, every other consumer in the State is paying for it with quite large increases in the cost of the power they consume.

    The public are being hoodwinked, by not being told the truth.

    Sorry to be way off topic here.

    Tony.


    Report this

    101

    • #
      Truthseeker

      Tony,

      You are never off-topic …


      Report this

      10

    • #

      Hi Tony,

      Thanks for that. This bunk is sure to be repeated, and your comments will be useful.

      ” … the journalist reporting the story has no knowledge about it … “. And no knowledge of demographics apparently.

      I picked up on ” … 150,000 homes, a city the size of Cairns … “. That’s BS.
      Easy to check – just go to Cairns RC or OECR (Qld Gov statistician) websites.
      First off, Cairns is a REGIONAL Council. Spreads a long way from Cairns urban area.
      As of June 2012, Cairns RC ERP (estimated residential population) 165,388. Total classifiable households 57,130.


      Report this

      00

    • #

      Notice how the emphasis is always placed on number of homes supplied, giving the impression that electrical consumption is mainly in Australian households, playing on the personal guilt factor.

      Electricity is consumed in the three major sectors, Residential, Commercial, and Industrial, with a tiny percentage in the Transportation Sector. (usually less than a fraction of one percent)

      That Residential sector consumes only 20% of ALL power being consumed in Australia.

      Take out your latest power bill.

      Whatever that is, multiply it by 10, and that is the AVERAGE Commercial power bill, commerce being shops, offices, Companies etc, and that’s the average.

      Whatever your bill is, multiply it by 80 and that is the AVERAGE Industrial power bill.

      Whatever you bill is, take the largest Commerce users, Coles, Woolies etc. Mutiply your bill by 120+ and that would be the bill for an INDIVIDUAL Coles or Woolies.

      Now keep in mind that crock which greenies concentrate on, that being residential air conditioning, and they even refer to it as The Harvey Norman Effect, and also keep in mind that subtle reference for the introduction of Smart meters, how they hope to isolate your home air conditioner when demand is really high.

      Air conditioning in a household application consumes 9% of your total consumption, that’s for cooling in Summer and the reverse cycle, heating in Winter.

      So, in total, residential air conditioning consumes 9% of 20% of all power being consumed, or 1.8% of all Australian power consumption in total.

      They could isolate every airconditioning unit in every home in Australia, and the result would barely register a blip on hot days.

      Go into your local shopping Mall.

      One Coles, one Woolworths, one K Mart, one Big W, and say 100 specialty shops, both big and small. The Coles and Woolies have monster banks of cold storage. The whole Mall has recycled air into the complex, that’s conditioned BREATHING air, the only way breathing air is circulated throughout the complex. That can’t just be tuned off overnight. The complex is lit, well lit, day and night.

      That one shopping Mall will consume around the same power as 5,000 homes, probably more than that.

      Power savings in the Residential sector are tiny little savings at the very edge of power consumption.

      Yet Residential power is the costliest of all three sectors.

      We are being lied to on a huge scale.

      Look again at the Load Curve I always link to. 18,000MW of power is required while all of us are tucked up and sound asleep, when Residential consumption is at its absolute lowest, barely 2500MW, if that.

      Don’t allow yourself to be conned. You are not the problem, because the perceived problem has been manufactured.

      Tony.


      Report this

      81

      • #
        Greg Cavanagh

        I just asked our “Lighting guy”. Our Council has about 30,000 street lights in a single regional shire (QLD). They burn a sizable chunk of money too, with no option to turn them off.


        Report this

        20

      • #
        Brett

        Hey Tony,
        I found this recently from Nth Parkes Mines: Energy Use 2005.

        Electricity Consumption 204,228 GWH
        Diesel Consumption 4,055 KL
        Petrol Consumption 30 KL
        LPG Consumption 3 KL
        Total Energy 892,845 GJ


        Report this

        00

      • #
        Annie

        TonyfromOz: Thank you for putting that so well. It has annoyed me for years that we private residential users of power are made to feel so guilty (actually, I don’t feel guilty) at our small use when huge quantites of power are used and wasted by shops, offices and factories. I feel really cross when I see shops with open doors letting out vast amounts of overheated air (in winter) or overcooled air (in summer). I’ve complained to managers of these places but they come out with the bleat that they ‘must make customers feel welcome’. Well, I don’t feel welcomed by them; I feel hot and uncomfortable in an overheated store when I must dress for the great cold outdoors (like the last few winters in the UK) and chilled to the marrow in overcooled stores when I need to be dressed for the great hot outdoors (like the normal sort of summer day you get in Victoria). I now discover that we have a limit as to what degree of built in lighting we can design into a house in Australia! For crying out loud! What about those of us who need better lighting (slight glaucoma in my case)?


        Report this

        10

    • #

      Now, why would power bills be rising?

      You know how I’ve said that all consumers pay for those panels on people’s roofs. Is that amount substantial enough, and keep in mind that this is just from those rooftop solar power panels.

      So then, see how in the article I linked to it says that Queensland now has 1GW of solar panels.

      I then worked out how much electricity is being generated by those panels, and that came in at 1095.75GWH.

      The Queensland Government pays 44 cents per KWH for all the power generated by those panels. The power retailers then add on a further 5 cents per KWH.

      So then, just for that generated power from rooftop solar panels, the total amount being paid to those people who do have panels comes in at $537 MILLION.

      That is then recovered from every other consumer of electricity.

      $537 MILLION.

      That’s just Queensland.

      That’s just the unit cost for the electricity generated.

      Every one of those people who have those panels also receive an up front rebate at the installation, and that is also recovered.

      Again, not very substantial you may think.

      Look at the costings for those rooftop systems shown at this link, and the rebate is the second last column.

      There’s now 1GW of installed rooftop solar and the average per customer comes in at just on 2KW, so that’s 500,000 systems.

      The rebate for that average 2KW system is $2678, so now, the total rebate at installation comes in at $1.339 BILLION

      That also has to be recovered from all other electricity consumers.

      Add that to the FIT and the total is now $1.876 BILLION.

      Almost $2 BILLION.

      Can you see now how rooftop solar power is CAUSING electricity costs to rise.

      And this is just for Queensland.

      Tony.


      Report this

      10

  • #

    It’s interesting that the hot, dry thirties didn’t have any BoM-official El Ninos. If anything should make us skeptical of treating rough observation sets like ENSO as mechanisms it would have to be the dry La Nina of 1938-1939 with its killer heat, peaking with the devastation of Black Friday.

    Maybe there is really no such thing as climate science, in the sense that there was no medical science when Semmelweis was considered potty for telling surgeons to wash their hands. The reason that so many climate ideas are dodgy is that most of the hydrosphere, which makes its way into every climate theory, and the bulk of that hot plasticky ball called Earth are largely unknown and unvisited.

    So it’s easy to make stuff up!


    Report this

    20

  • #
    pat

    for Jo:

    ReturnAussieGold Petition
    TO THE HONOURABLE THE SPEAKER AND MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
    The attached Australian petitioners are concerned about the counter-party risks to the Commonwealth of Australia relative to storing Australia’s Gold Reserves in London…
    http://www.returnaussiegold.net.au/#!sign-petition/cjg9

    FAQ – ReturnAussieGold
    http://www.returnaussiegold.net.au/#!faq/c15a7


    Report this

    10

  • #
    Miles

    Just an idea …
    It would appear that the product ‘Tim Flannery and the Climate Council’ easily qualifies
    for the annual Choice ‘Shonky’ awards.
    We should all nominate them for 2014.
    First and foremost, a nomination has to meet one or more of the following Shonky criteria:

    Fails a standard
    Poor performance on CHOICE tests
    Hidden charges
    Lack of transparency
    False claims or broken promises
    Consumers are worse off because of it
    Consumer confusion
    Poor value for money
    Consumer frustration, or just plain outrage

    http://www.choice.com.au/shonkyaward/judging.aspx


    Report this

    20

    • #
      Justin Jefferson

      Interesting that Choice never seems to have considered rating the “services” of politicians and governments. I wonder how they would perform judged by the same standard of shonk? My guess is, worse than any product or service on the market.


      Report this

      10

  • #
    RoHa

    We’re going to have bushfires? Right here in Australia?
    We’ve never had those before. That Global Warming has doomed us all!


    Report this

    70

  • #
    pat

    TonyfromOz -

    what about the final para in the Courier Mail story -

    “Nationally, solar power generation capacity has reached three gigawatts, accounting for 9.3 per cent of electricity demand”

    ACRONYM HELL! ETS CER, ERU, RMU, NZU -

    6 Dec: NZ Herald: Brian Fallow: Govt confirms 2015 ETS use-by date
    The Government has confirmed that New Zealand emitters with obligations under the emissions trading scheme will only be able to use internationally traded Kyoto Protocol emissions units to meet their ETS obligations until May 2015…
    The decision meant that its access to the Kyoto markets would end in 2015 when New Zealand squares accounts with the other countries which undertook commitments under Kyoto’s first commitments period, 2008 to 2012.
    It was never likely the Government would continue beyond then to accept for domestic purposes units for which it no longer had a use itself.
    In the mean time allowing firms with ETS obligations to meet them entirely with imported units – of which there is a global glut and whose price has fallen as low as a few cents a tonne – has rendered the ETS ineffectual as a mechanism for curbing emissions and largely crowded out of the market New Zealand units issued by the Government to forest owners and others…
    Acting Climate Change Minister Simon Bridges said today participants could continue to use Kyoto Protocol first commitment period certified emission reduction units (CERs), emission reduction units (ERUs), and removal units (RMUs) for surrender obligations up until 31 May 2015, after which those units would no longer be eligible for surrender. “From then they will need to surrender New Zealand units (NZUs) to meet their obligations.”…
    On Monday Climate Change Minister Tim Groser scotched market rumours that the Government planned to introduce a floor price to the ETS, saying it would be inconsistent with the Government’s aim of limiting the cost of the ETS on households and businesses…
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11168312

    PEMEX is govt-owned. lucky the CERs are cheap or this would do even more damage to the Mexican economy:

    INTERVIEW-Mexico’s Pemex will have to buy CERs to cut carbon tax bill
    SAO PAULO, Dec 9 (Reuters) – Mexico’s oil giant Pemex will be looking to buy as many U.N.-backed carbon credits, or Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs), as possible to cut the large bill it will have after the implementation of a carbon tax in January, a company executive told Reuters late on Friday…
    http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/reutersnews/1.3312517


    Report this

    00

    • #

      “Nationally, solar power generation capacity has reached three gigawatts, accounting for 9.3 per cent of electricity demand”

      Note how Nameplate Capacity is always used because it inflates that percentage.

      That 3GW of solar power, and I’ll even use their high total, amounts to actual generation for consumption of 1.25%.

      Add that to the 2.5% from Wind Power and Renewables from those 2 sectors comes to 3.75% or around 9.4TWH.

      What is so laughable about that is that the aim is to have renewables supplying 42TWH by 2020.

      It’s not going to happen with solar, be it Industrial solar plants or rooftop solar, so that means Wind.

      Hydro is 14TWH, so that means they need almost 20TWH of new Wind, or the current wind total multiplied by three and a quarter, which means all that NEW wind would need to be at the proposal stage already, an absolutely laughable thing to suggest, that there is currently 9,000MW Nameplate of Wind already planned and approved, and that’s at least 18 Large scale wind plants, at a cost of around $35 Billion.

      You must be joking!

      Tony.


      Report this

      40

  • #
    Robert

    I think people should get back to basics. The main factors for extreme fires are fuel quantity and moisture content, the local weather conditions, wind speed, humidity, air temperature and of course a source of ignition, usually a power line, lightning, a spark from equipment, or deliberate arson.

    You can do something about power lines, maintain them, stop operating machinery under dire conditions, and try and deal with arsonists.

    The main preventative measure is to reduce fuel loads by keeping property clean, have clean fire-breaks and fuel-reduction burns under very mild conditions, and maintain operating fire fighting equipement. I don’t think many farmers would disagree with this. The problem is the plethora of green regulation preventing people from doing these sort of things, particularly for those people who like people to live in the bush.

    There have been disasterous fires in Victoria in 1939 and again in 2009,in Tasmania in 1934, 1938 and again in 1967 with considerable loss of life, livestock, native animals and property.

    I had a friend who lived at Ferntree (Hobart) in a ferny bush setting at the back of Mt. Wellington. The house was vertical weatherboard with a shingle roof. However, the garden was clean and full of green Rhododendrons under a canopy Mountain ash. The house survived the 1967 fire due to his efforts with a firehose whilst a crown fire went through the trees. And most of the neighbours lost everything. Perhaps he was lucky, but he was also well prepared and this is the moral for anyone who wants to live outside suburbia.


    Report this

    40

  • #
    pat

    over to u, TonyfromOz:

    15 Nov: TheEnergyCollective: Nigel Morris: Queensland: Now With More Solar PV than 22 Countries!
    By the end of the year the sunshine State is set to have around 770MW of PV systems installed, the vast majority on residential rooftops, which makes it number 21 on the list of countries with PV installed.
    Of the countries listed by the IEA, that gives Queensland more installed PV generation capacity than 22 other nations including South Africa, Mexico, Malaysia the Netherlands, Israel, Taiwan and more than the entire rest of the Asia Pacific region. Stand up and take a bow Queensland!…
    Over 13% of rooftop systems in SEQ are on 8c tariff now…
    ***And for this month’s weird fact – Over the last 2 years, the energy generated per system has increased from 73 kWh / month to 217 kWh / month. Global warming ? Cheaper bigger systems ? Over sizing panels?
    (sourced from SolarBusiness.com.au)
    http://theenergycollective.com/solarbusiness/303281/queensland-now-more-solar-pv-22-countries


    Report this

    11

  • #
    manalive

    Obviously Katoomba is only one record in the region. I wanted more. But long term temperature records in the Blue Mountains are hard to find. Other records are short (and flat) …

    That also applies in other states.
    It is remarkable with such scanty and sparse data the BoM compilers have been able to come up with, for instance, such a detailed mean temperature history down to fractions of one degree C dating back one hundred years for the entire nation; particularly considering that in the early years there would have been very few measuring stations outside the capital cities and the instruments were somewhat basic.
    Ah well, I guess it just goes to show what brilliant scientist they are.


    Report this

    40

  • #
    janama

    Lithgow is available up to 2006 when it was closed – it’s 29km from Katoomba.

    link

    Mt Victoria goes up to 1985 from 1907.

    Link


    Report this

    00

  • #
    abt

    I keep hearing from the Warmist fraternity that 2013 has been “the hottest year on record.” It certainly hasn’t felt like that to me in SE Australia. What statistics do they use to reach this conclusion? I would love to rebut this comment in discussion with some Warmista colleagues but I just don’t have the counter argument to show they are wrong, or at least cherry picking. Please help.


    Report this

    30

    • #
      MaxL

      Hi abt,
      It’s coming on to summer so you can expect the claim, “the hottest year on record” to be bandied around for the next few months.
      I’d suggest, this is a good place to start for counter arguments.

      As for your colleagues making that claim, then your question “What statistics do they use to reach this conclusion?” should be directed at them, afterall, it is they who are making the claim and they who are required to provide the evidence to support it.

      We can expect many such unsubstantiated claims from Flannery, Karoly and Steffen et. al. over the summer.


      Report this

      20

  • #
    pat

    King of Cool posted this in comments at WUWT, & said:

    “Not a skerrick about this on the ABC but don’t we all deserve to know whether this is the new norm?”

    7 Dec: Antarctica.gov.au: Aurora Australis back home after delay in icy seas
    Australia’s Antarctic resupply ship, Aurora Australis, today returned from this season’s first voyage south after encountering heavy sea ice en route back to Hobart…
    It was due to arrive back on November 16, with 24 expeditioners who have spent the past year in Antarctica, however, thick pack-ice conditions delayed its return…
    http://www.antarctica.gov.au/media/news/2013/aurora-australis-back-home-after-delay-in-icy-seas


    Report this

    20

  • #

    [...] Jo points out, the reality is far different. Fractions of a degree changes in average temperature have made [...]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    John Knowles

    Rainfall distribution through-out the year might be interesting. We commonly get a very dry winter with a water shortage by Christmas when we start to get afternoon summer thunderstorms and bouts of very heavy rainfall which, on the annual graphs, make it appear that we live in a wet climate. Bilpin and Berambing have monthly records going back many years. I’ll try getting hold of them.


    Report this

    00

  • #

    [...] under Tony Abbot, men fortsatt som en privatfinansierad organisation. JoNova hade i ett av sina blogginlägg tidigare i höstas en diskussion om hur temperaturen och nederbörden förändrats i just detta [...]


    Report this

    00

  • #
    Iluvatar

    What a lot of whingers you are on this blog !

    You know what? I CAN reliably predict that most of the human race will be dead in 50,000 years due to …..? An ice age ! Yes.. go check your facts about the earth’s axial alignment (wobble to you all) and the distance at perihelion of the orbit.

    Global warming won’t mean a thing !


    Report this

    00

Leave a Reply

  

  

  

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>