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By Jo Nova It’s dire. After suffering a 36% fall in June due to unexpectedly bad maintenance bills, Siemens Energy has lost another 37% on Thursday as it revealed orders and revenue would be even lower than the current subdued expectations. The share that sold for 24 euro in May is now selling for 7. Things are so bad Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany has even said Siemens Energy is “very important”. Apparently talks are “intensive”, which presumably means the company is on death’s door and the German government is being asked to help save it. And so we arrive at a point where a company selling products that depend on government subsidies is now asking to be subsidized itself. And the whole green industry depended on government pumped “science” and artificially low interest rates to exist in the first place. Like a pyramid scheme skiing on a two ponzi scams, sooner or later it has to collapse. Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge Siemens Energy Shares Crash 37% As Renewable Bust Sparks ‘Green Panic’Siemens Energy shares in Germany crashed on Thursday after the company warned its wind turbine business is grappling with quality issues and offshore ramp-up challenges. The company said it’s evaluating various measures to strengthen its balance sheet and is discussing state guarantees with the German government. This comes as a financial crisis in offshore wind energy is brewing. The word is Siemens Energy is asking for up to 15 billion euros in guarantees. UPDATE: Siemens Energy is a spin off from the larger separate giant Siemens which has a market cap of 100b Euro and 300,000 employees. The smaller energy division has 90,000 employees and a market cap of only 7b Euro now, but it was 30b a few years ago. Siemens still owns 25% of the spin off energy division. The whole wind industry is downEven the Guardian is asking if something is is wrong in the whole wind industry, albeit only as means of paving the way to ask for bigger subsidies. The windmill business has not recovered from the Siemen’s June shock that bigger turbines was not always better, and ominously something was wrong which would cost an obscene amount to fix. It didn’t bode well that the problem was narrowed down to either the rotor, the bearings “or the design”– which covered pretty much everything. By August Siemens Energy announced a jaw dropping annual loss of €4.5 billion. Confidence is gone. In July the Swedish energy giant Vattenfall stopped work on the offshore wind farm plans off Norfolk. In August the Danish wind firm Ørsted lost 25% after it revealed it may have to write off ” the value of its US portfolio by nearly £2bn.” The share market was so skittish it wiped off nearly £7bn in value that week. Overall the Ørsted share price has dropped by two-thirds from its peak in early 2021. The latest headlines on Orsted, say it all: Orsted: Sunrise Wind Project Likely to Be Ditched After Failure to Get Extra Subsidies; Shares CheapA week ago Deutsche Bank “slashed its 12-month share price forecast for Danish energy giant Ørsted by 36%, citing supplier delays, lower tax credits and rising rates.” — CNBC Things haven’t exactly been good for Vestas either:Vestas is also down 30% this year. This is the rotor of the newest, largest offshore Siemens SG 14MW . Look how big these machines are. It will theoretically end up propped up on a stalk 140 meters high over the ocean waves, or something like that. The blades are 115m long. Imagine fixing it. h/t StJohnofGrafton
By Jo Nova Let’s run an experiment on a whole nation that we can’t even do easily on a single homeImaging scaling this up for a country? The Daily Sceptic has the story of an Australian farmer in Victoria who has gone off-grid to try to be as self sufficient as he can, not out of ideology, but for pragmatic reasons. He has two 3 bedroom homes, with 30 solar panels and a 1kW wind turbine each. For storage they have about 30 German lead acid batteries which at current prices is about $15,000 of batteries each. But even so, each house still has bottled gas stoves, and a 6 kVA petrol generator. The generators are set to come on when the batteries get too low, which often happens in the evenings of autumn, winter and sometimes in spring. (He estimates about 60 – 100 hours each year). Even above all that equipment that needs gas, fuel and maintenance and cost about $160,000 in total to set up, they still have to grow, cut and collect, ouch, 100 kg of wood (220lbs) per week in winter for each house. He warns that anyone who thinks the nation can run on wind and solar without fossil fuel or nuclear energy is “totally deluded”. And these are farmhouses on the coast in Victoria — so a milder climate — we’re not talking of snow. The author was a part time specialist medical practitioner until the government tried to force him into a medical experiment (you know the one) that he didn’t want to take part in. Now he is an anonymous peasant farmer with chicken and sheep. So he’s a bright guy, who had a good income, and the kind of man that can rebuild a 70 year old diesel generator that weighs 1.4 tonnes. How exactly does this kind of system translate into a national energy for people living on high density blocks with no trees, a heat pump and a Tesla they need to plug in? Living Off-Grid Has Shown Me That Modern Society Cannot Function on Renewable EnergyExtrapolating from our renewable energy experience, anyone who thinks that a modern society can function with a power grid that runs on just solar and wind power without fossil fuel or nuclear backup that’s able to immediately provide up to 100% of power needs on cloudy, still days and dark, windless nights, is totally deluded! And getting grid-scale lithium ion battery storage to provide the sort of supply time that we have on our farm would cost trillions of dollars, deplete the planet’s non-renewable resources to the point of imminent exhaustion and then it would have to be done all over again in 10 years. Nothing is truly set and forget: After 20 years the first of our solar panels have started to fail and have been replaced. … Renewable energy systems should more honestly be called replaceable energy systems. None of the components can be expected to work for more than 25 years and often a much shorter time than that. Even with nearly 3 tons of lead acid batteries for two homes, they still really only have a one day supply: In theory we have three to four days of zero input power supply if we were to flatten the batteries, but in practice we don’t let the batteries drop below 70% capacity in order to protect them and make them last as long as possible. So we are limited to about one day of stored capacity. Both house systems are close to as optimised as we can get them and represent a total investment of around $160,000. I’m assuming the $160,000 was for both houses together, I hope I’m not reading that wrongly. And of course, here in Australia, the solar panels were almost certainly subsidized, so the true cost is even more. The Daily Sceptic has all the kVA details... thanks to the anonymous farmer for sharing his story. h/t to Steve
By Jo Nova Does anyone care? 600 million Africans don’t have electricityThey burn wood for power. Forests are razed and no one even notices. As Geoff Hill says, they warm their homes and cook their food the only way they can — by chopping down forests and converting wood to charcoal, a fuel used by the Greeks and Romans. If they had coal fired power or gas plants they wouldn’t need to cut down 400 year old trees. An area the size of Switzerland is being denuded every year, 70% of Africa’s forests are gone, but it’s as if the rest of the world barely registers it. Solar panels don’t work under thick cloud, and can blow away in cyclones, hydro plants won’t work in droughts, but fossil fuel plants survive bad weather. Do the Greens really care about the environment, or the poor — does the ABC, CBC or the BBC? His advice: don’t let them get away with propaganda that keeps people in poverty When you see a newspaper article claiming that sandstorms and creeping desert are solely down to climate change, write a letter to the editor – even just a few lines – explaining that a loss of vegetation is what allows the sand to blow and the desert to grow. This is not a denial of climate change, but a call for action. We must make sure Africans have the same access to electricity as in developed countries, then there will be no need for charcoal. This is really a staggering issue of suffering and loss: Exerpts from Geoff Hill’s paper, NetZeroWatch In Africa there’s a war against trees. … on a continent where millions have no electricity, the only fuel is wood, usually reduced to charcoal. According to the World Bank, there are 25 countries that have less than half their people on the grid, and all bar one (Haiti) are in Africa. Africa’s population has grown four-fold since 1960 and now stands close to 1.4 billion, and an estimated 80% of households rely on wood or charcoal. There are alternatives, including gas, kerosene and, where it’s available, electricity, but all come at a cost. Where trees are not replanted, the land degrades. Forest soil is loose and powdery, and blows in the wind; soon enough, there’s a desert where the jungle once stood. Africa produces 60% of the world’s charcoal, around 25 million tons a year. Some is exported to Europe, but most is for local use. Yet it’s largely excluded from academic texts, and ignored by those who call for an end to oil, coal or gas. Most civilizations had a Charcoal AgeCharcoal was a crucial fuel: It’s the five-to-one rule that makes it work. Five tons of wood can be reduced to one ton of charcoal by burning off the moisture, gas and other elements, leaving a solid block of energy. This allows large amounts of fuel to be moved even where transport is a challenge. The seller can pack a dozen bags on a bicycle, and for buyers, a single bag (8–12 kg) can last a week. Charcoal is among the most important materials in the story of civilization. It burns hotter than logs, with enough energy to liquify metal. Without it, the Pharaohs would not have had their jewellry and gold coffins, and the Greeks, Romans and Zulus would have fought with clubs instead of spears. It is used to filter drinking water and to keep your fishtank clean. Later came coking or mineral coal, the two often used together, and without them we’d have had no nails, barrels, warships or cannons, and no bronze or iron age. The industrial revolution and, later, the wires that made possible Edison’s capture of electricity and Alexander Graham Bell’s telephone, all relied on the ability to melt the various metals and blend them into alloys.’ Malawi, for example, has 21 million people, and 90% of them rely on wood and charcoal. When the government tries to ban charcoal, people smuggle it anyway. A staggering 85% of the population is not on the grid, and Malawi has no oil or natural gas. Three quarters get by on $2 per day or less The new hope is coal. Malawi has proven reserves of more than two million tons, with several mines in operation. A thermal power station is being built at Zalewa, a small town north of Blantyre, and the projected output of 300 MW will almost double the existing supply. Whether any of the cleaner technologies now available in South Africa will be used to limit emissions is not clear. Tanzania to the north and Zimbabwe in the south have a growing dependence on coal, and the trend looks set to continue, even while Europe and the US seek to scale down their use of fossil fuels. In Malawi, all electricity is controlled by the state, and there have been several price hikes in recent years. Two solar plants produce just 80 MW, with another two on the drawing board, but there is a problem: Malawi has cloud cover an average of 38% of the year, peaking at close on seven days out of ten in January and February. We can all see what’s coming. How will any tree survive?Read it all at NetZeroWatch. Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay By Jo Nova In the race for “free” but random energy, or perhaps for bigger status symbols, China set a new record in July with a 16MW wind tower with a rotor diameter of an awesome 853 feet (260m). It’s a bird mincer one quarter of a kilometer across. But already plans are being drawn up for an even bigger one. What could possibly go wrong? It’s typhoon proof… Gargantuan 22-MW wind turbine will be among history’s largest machinesBy Loz Blain, New Atlas Imagine something as tall as New York’s Chrysler building, but spinning. China’s Mingyang Smart Energy has announced plans for a colossal 22-megawatt offshore wind turbine, and standing in its presence will be an unprecedented human experience. The new turbine proposed for 2025 by MingYang, according to Bloomberg, will have a peak output of 22 MW, and a rotor diameter over 310 m (1,017 ft), corresponding to a swept area of at least 75,477 sq m (812,425 sq ft, 14.1 NFL football fields, 60 olympic swimming pools), minus hub. The Eiffel Tower is 324m tall. A few months ago Siemens got bad news on turbine maintenance that was so bad it caused a 36% share plunge in a single day. And the news for wind turbines is still so bad Siemens shares haven’t recovered. So if cables become uninsurable, bearings get brinelling, the leading edge degrades or MingYang wipes out entire flocks, eagles and whales — will they even mention it?
It’s just emblematic of your Clean Green Future
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