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Australian Election — too close to call, and Labor minority government is possible

The Tally updates have just stopped for tonight, but things have shifted in the last hour.  Welcome to holidayville-Australia, no one is going to count votes tomorrow. Bizarrely, they’re not even counting on Monday either — (that must be a misprint?)

Apparently we can pay double-triple-overtime for people to work til 2am on a Saturday, but then we all need two days off.

*UPDATE: The delay is probably due to waiting for postal votes to come in. Because of Australia’s preference system, preferences can’t be allocated until all the votes are in. h/t Analitik

Delcons mattered

Turnbull has taken a historic win in 2013 and converted it into a historic mash. Abbott knew what he stood for and carried a lot of people with him. Turnbull stood for nothing-much and communicated that exactly.

Everyone except Bill Shorten said Turnbull was likely to win, tracking to win, or has “won”. Andrew Bolt thought this win was likely to be so weak, so pathetic, even a minority-hobbled-government, that Turnbull should resign. But based on these newer numbers, it might be Shorten doing the minority government thing. Check it out: the magic number is 76 seats — and while 77 percent of the vote is counted, a lot of what’s left is prepoll and preferences, and who knows?

The AEC (Australian Electoral Commission) site calls it LIB-NAT  67 seats,  LABOR 71 Seats, 5 others, and only 7 undecided seats.  UPDATE: Now 66 : 72. One more seat to Labor?

The ABC site uses a different model of preference flows (presumably) and has it as LIB-NAT 67 : LABOR 67 :  5 others, and 11 undecided.

AEC election count Sat 2nd July 2016

….

What kind of minority government is calling?

Of the five independents, only one – Katter — leans more conservatively. Three lean leftish: Xenophon, Greens, and Wilkie. One other, McGowan holds a long conservative seat — probably more in an Oakshott and Windsor spirit methinks — (see her policies here). Oakshott and Windsor lead the career path for MP’s in conservative seats who “lean left”. Good for one term, and gone the next. But then she can hardly betray a Liberal-Base-vote, if the Liberal base didn’t have a Liberal choice to vote for. Voters could get very grumpy when a Gillard was substituted for an Abbott. But there’s not so much to care about if Turnbull is switched for Shorten.

Of the 11 undecided seats on the ABC site they have Labor ahead in 6 seats.

Prepoll voting usually favours the conservative side of politics. But more people are prepoll voting than ever before and the old rules do not apply. Prepoll voting is the “new normal” in all kinds of places.

 “Nationally, the number of early voters has increased by 44 percent since 2013 with 2.15 million votes cast compared to 1.49 million.”

Everything depends on the prepoll votes. Does it take an organized conservative type person to vote ahead of time? If so, Turnbull may cling on.

8.6 out of 10 based on 44 ratings

Australian Election — Results

 

The place to get results: ABC Federal Election 2016

Federal Election Results list (Seat by Seat)

See also Twitter  #ausvotes  and also #ausdecides2016

For Foreigners watching — Australia has 150 Seats in the House of Reps. The party with 76 gets to choose the PM and form Government. The SENATE or UPPER HOUSE has 76 members — 12 for each State and 2 for the NT and ACT. This election is rare in that all the Senate seats are up for grabs, normally we elect half each time, but this is a “double dissolution” election. That hasn’t happened for 40 years. There are 15 million voters, and voting is compulsory.

Almost all the newspaper and poll predictions were for a Turnbull (Liberal Coalition) win.

8pm: Lib 57 seats. Labor 58 seats.  Booths closed everywhere now. Oakshott predicted to fail. Xenophon team look like they have a House seat (MAYO)  32% counted.

7:50pm  Eden Monaro (Bellwether seat that has always gone with the government — appears to be going to Labor. Will it break the pattern, or is it a sign to come? Hendy was very pro Turnbull, so the Delcon vote may break the historic pattern.)

7.39pm 18% counted.  Lib 53 seats. Labor 52 seats.

7:18pm Sydney time 8% Counted. Libs ahead

7pm Voting Booths have closed on the East Coast, and will close in one hour in WA.

 

 

7.6 out of 10 based on 20 ratings

Election Day in Australia – “Independent’s Day”

It’s not Independence Day for Australia, just “Independent’s Day”. Anyone but the majors…

Election Tomorrow: How-to-vote suggestions for climate skeptics

CarbonSense have posted a list of dedicated skeptics in Australian politics

HOUSE

SENATE

Rafe Campion recommends the http://ConservativeRevolt.wix.com/HowToVote .

My method is to choose your local candidate carefully, based on individuals not parties. Know your candidates. I lean Delcon. Like John Stone who links to the list of Turncoats. There is no small government  major party any more. Shorten would be more-terrible in the short run, but we might get a good opposition and a decent Senate. (Blessed are the Gridlocked, whose MP’s cannot pass laws.) In the long run Turnbull could stop us getting both good government and a good opposition.  In the short run, the dire option of another Labor-Green government with some Senate control is still a risky possibility (latest IPSOS poll is 50:50). I don’t trust polls, but that doesn’t help. Predicting preferences in this election is a wildcard.  Voters can’t vote for a gridlocked parliament, only for each candidate.

“Better to have a real conservative opposition than a fake conservative government.”

In the campaign, I hoped someone would explain how we can fix the Liberal Party while they hold power. No one did. But being in opposition didn’t fix the Labor Party either. The answer is probably in a long term grassroots movement that is organized and networked. That isn’t going to happen tomorrow.

The voters are going to surprise the major parties tomorrow

The new voting system will not work the way the majors hoped. It was supposed to stop minor parties doing tricky preference deals and getting in a senator “by accident”. It will not work. By getting people to number the boxes above the line, rather than just sticking in a “1” they are bringing the preferences concept to life. People will think more about their choices rather than less. Instead of wiping out the minorities it will increase them.

The “accidental senators” were never an accident — they personally got a bit lucky — but if it wasn’t them, it would have gone to one of the other small, non-establishment protest candidates.  The protest vote was real, has got larger, and isn’t going away. All the talk of people winning on 0.1% of a primary vote was just another deceit that hid the fact that a large percentage of voters ultimately wanted any minor candidate more than they wanted a major one.

Both major parties have lost their heart and soul — deserting their bases

Australian politics is a parody.

Labor fights to stop plebiscites that would ask the workers what they really want (how bad can that be?). It rages for same-sex marriage, a topic that affects 2% of voters, and not in a life or death way. Labor tries to galvanize the crowd to change the weather in 2100, even though voters don’t vote much on environmental issues, and choose other environmental problems when they do. The party of workers supposedly worries about the rights of non-workers from outside Australia who apparently escaped death and tyranny but aren’t grateful for food, shelter, and allowances in safe locations. Labor lied about bringing in a carbon tax and hasn’t yet admitted it was the wrong thing to do or said sorry for doing it.

The Liberals have given up on free speech and smaller government. They are not even pretending. The ABC pours scorn on half of Australian voters and does so with permission of the Coalition. The Liberals won the last election on a blood oath to stop the carbon tax, but they tossed out the leader who did that, and a carbon tax started today. They tax as much as almost any government in Australia ever has, and enthuse that governments really can control the weather, stop storms and make floods go away. The Liberal Party cannot keep this up. Will they split, or will a new force arise from the forgotten base?

Curiously a couple of Bellwether voters I know, who only see mainstream news and mix in mainstream circles in median suburbs, have told me they’ve already voted and they went “totally independent”. They know almost nothing about Brexit. When asked why they are fed up with the major parties, the answer is “they both lie”. And some of them put the Greens last, after the majors.

The independent movement in Australia is immature, disorganised, not networked and not focused. There’s no Trump here, no Boris Johnson or Farage. Yet there is anger and passion here for the galvanizing. Who will do that?

8.9 out of 10 based on 50 ratings

Dennis Jensen – the skeptic MP running as an independent and the Delcon dilemma

Two days to go. How to vote?

WA skeptics can make a difference here, but I have to deal with the DelCon dilemma too.

Dr Dennis Jensen is the most qualified science trained and outspoken skeptic in Parliament, and he’s running as an Independent on Saturday.  For Tangney voters, it’s a pointed dilemma. Jensen bravely spoke out as a skeptic in 2004, before almost anyone else. He also helped to toss out Turnbull in 2009. But then he bafflingly (to me) voted for Turnbull last year — undoing almost all the gains skeptics had made in the last 10 years. I wrote to him pointing out how far backwards we have gone: “We are now so much worse off than we were in 2010 or 2013. We don’t even have a major party in opposition offering us a skeptical alternative and we won’t get one as long as Turnbull is PM. In 2013 Tony Abbott won on a blood oath to get rid of a carbon tax that Australians overwhelmingly wanted. Despite that, a carbon tax starts in 3 days. We skeptics haven’t forgotten that you spoke out for skeptics when no one else did, but neither can we ignore a decision that set us back ten years.”

Dennis Jensen is in a safe Liberal seat with a big margin — his seat was not threatened — so his choice was not about self preservation. Since the Turnbull vote, he has lost pre-selection and is running as an Independent. Churlishly, incredibly cynically, the Liberal Party are preferencing the Labor candidate over him (the Labor Party has returned that favour). UPDATE: This was not so. Jensen was #2 on the Liberal ticket, as would seem fair. (I’ll try to find out what happened. When I spoke to Jensen on Wednesday he had been told the preferences were not that way.)  So the establishment closes ranks and Jensen is too big a threat. I asked Dennis if he regretted supporting Turnbull and his reply was that it was an “agonizing” choice and Turnbull has been a major disappointment — but at the time he sincerely felt that Shorten would win if he didn’t. Plus Turnbull had agreed to keep the same climate policy and the plebiscite on gay marriage. (I guess Jensen, like most people, was unaware that the Abbott plan contained the subclause to bring in a carbon tax through CapNTrade.)

It’s the Delcon dilemma, and I would have picked the other way. I believe Abbott would have won this election – despite the long-running poor polls. The whole campaign has been about bread and circuses, distractions, fake scares, non-issues and fantasy-distant scenarios. If Abbott just reminded everyone about the boats, the carbon tax, the pink batts, and the monster debt, the public would have still picked the incumbents. But Dennis was there at the coal-face, and he saw things differently.

If he is to take on the establishment, grassroots support at the polling booths will make a big difference. So, if you are near the seat of Tangney (southern Perth) I know Dennis will be grateful. For the Delcons, it’s a question of thinking forwards: whether you think he would make a better MP than the establishment candidates.

Due to Jensen being the longest running and most outspoken skeptic in Parliament, and not in a major Party, David and I will head down and help out on Saturday. If you feel strongly about this election, and about the Senate too, you can share your thoughts with scores of voters at an influential moment. Dennis is outside the party machine now and is a better representative for science in the House than anyone else. People who want to help on the day can phone Reece at Denis’ office on 9354 9633.

Jensen is good on policy, but maybe not so strong at networking. If you think that numbers-guys and science trained thinkers ought be in Parliament rather than smooth talking networkers then those type of people need support.

Here is his reply, below.

Jo

Guest post Dr Dennis Jensen M.P.

Hi Jo

The decision I made that night of the leadership coup is one that I will replay in my mind for the rest of my life. I cannot really say what the ideal action would have been; I really don’t think there was one. I made a very narrow judgement call that many will judge me on. Ultimately I came to the conclusion that the conservative cause in Australia is more important than any individual.

I hope that this explains why I took the actions I did, even if some will forever condemn me for them. They were not easy, and I really do not know whether I made the right decision.

I have to say that I am really pleased to be out of the Liberal Party. I can now focus on the job, rather than focus on the Liberal Party, and massage overinflated egos. The Liberal Party grassroots members are some of the best people you can hope to meet, but those pushing and manoeuvring for office bearing positions are some of the worst. I am just glad to be out of it, and all the Machiavellian games, so I can focus on constituents and policy, unconstrained by party dictate.

Keep reading  →

8.4 out of 10 based on 49 ratings

Spotless Sun again. Even a little ice age won’t slow the Man-Made Climate Monster

Sun, June 2016, spotless.

Spotless Sun June 29th, 2016  | Spaceweather.com  | SDO/HMI

The Sun is spotless again. I hasn’t been this inactive for a hundred years. This week there are a spate of news stories about a little ice age coming — even from the uber warmista Potsdam Institute.

Looks like a spot of bother for the people feeding off the carbon reduction gravy train? Not so.  I predict they will mutate the argument, and with a completely straight face — the effect of carbon dioxide will turn out to be “more complicated”, scientists will rediscover that the  molecule emits infra red too — and now  rather than just simple warming,  it will be responsible for  “transforming regional patterns”, “shifting layers” and “wandering jet streams”. It will turn out the sun controls the climate but CO2 amplifies the solar effects. It’s bad, bad, bad — still causing storms, floods, rain on the weekends, rotting reefs and reckless fish.

Predicting discoveries is easy — just ask  what establishment scientists would need to discover to keep their fame, status and salary package.

The Quiet Sun: “Winter is Coming”

A meteorologist at Vencore Weather, Paul Dorian, has stated that the sun has gone completely blank for the second time this month. He explained that this is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching. This would mean an increasing number of spotless days over the next few years.

The lack of sunspot activity has spread fears that it will prompt the arrival of a very cold period on Earth like that of the Maunder Minimum, which started in 1645 and continued till about 1715. This period is known as the Little Ice Age.

“At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir,” Dorian said in a Vencore Weather statement.

Solar Cycles 23, 24, 5, Graph, Sunspots.

The current solar cycle is much lower than the one before it. Solar Cycles 23 (blue), 24 (red), 5 (grey).

This fits with predictions by Dr David Evans with the Notch Delay theory and with the double dynamo work of Shepard, Zharkov and Zharkova.

Evans found that the flickering changes in total solar light (TSI) lead temperatures on Earth with a delay of a half solar cycle (roughly 11 years).  He found a major error in the current climate models which completely ignore a whole class of feedbacks. A model with the correct architecture shows the role of CO2 is a mere tenth of that predicted and when the notch and delay effect is included a solar driven climate model predicts cooling in the near future, most likely from 2017. The solar mechanism probably works through  cloud cover due to some combination of solar wind, magnetic effects or spectral cycles (changing UV). Changes in direct sunlight are not responsible themselves, just a leading indicator.

Shepard, Zharkov and Zharkova posit that the sun operates as two separate dynamos on slightly different cycles, and predict that we are headed in the 2030’s for a point where the two dynamos are operating out of synch, effectively cancelling each other out.

“We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence that the solar activity in cycles 24–26 will be systematically decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period.”

UPDATE: And if you did think the world was more likely to cool rather than warm, you might want to know about Cool Futures: the plan to set up the Worlds first hedge fund that aims to pop the climate-bubble.

Potsdam Institute –“scientists are speaking of a little ice age.”

Pierre Gosslin at NoTricksZone puts this turnaround in perspective:

Keep reading  →

9.2 out of 10 based on 57 ratings

What Brexit market disaster?

For five days headlines have told us the markets are being “Pounded”, with “Turmoil”, like a “Wild Ride” with “bloodletting“. I thought I’d graph the horror of the last week on the FTSE100, DAX, the CAC40 and the Euronext.  Naturally big-government fans in the media have no interest in overselling the disaster that is Brexit.

Spot the crisis?

The last five years of the FTSE 100. See the carnage of the last week:

UK FTSE, BREXIT.

5 Year FTSE graph   TradingEconomics.com

More shocking routs on the continent. Here’s the last twelve months of the EURONEXT:

Keep reading  →

9.4 out of 10 based on 56 ratings

Dr Mark Imisides, a serious skeptic candidate for the WA Senate

This is such a change. It used to be that the best a skeptic could hope for was a politician who “believes the science” but spoke in a code about wanting more evidence.  But here’s a candidate openly wooing skeptics — no pandering to political correctness. Imisides is equipped with a PhD in chemistry and he wants a debate: Look at me as a type of scientific Dirty Harry, he says. He explains why lawyer-politicians use the wrong reasoning and we need scientist politicians (like him, obviously). His points are not just about Australian politics but all Western governments.  He skips the scientific details here (we all know them), but I can vouch that from his past emails he’s not only done the homework on aerosols, hotspots, ice cores, and different IPCC reports, he’s even familiar with the devastating Thompson’s case (skeptical farming family).  This man is a serious skeptic. Well informed, and he understands how to reason. In a double dissolution election, he’s tackling a big vacant niche so he has a real chance (and with a lucky #1 spot on the ticket to boot). I wish there were more like him in every state — scientifically aware and unapologetic skeptics.

There are a million odd “Delcons” voters out there  — many of whom are skeptics in this election, and almost no one is speaking to them in this Australian election. A turning point? Looks like. If you don’t live in WA, but you like the looks of this candidate, you can still help him by sending this info to your West Australian friends.  I’ll be posting more info on other parties climate stances in the next day or two. I figure skeptics would want to know this kind of candidate exists.   —   Jo

Guest post:  Dr Mark Imisides — Senate Candidate for WA

Christian Democratic party

Despite the fact that there is increasing mistrust of the increasingly shrill warnings about climate induced disasters of every kind, it seems that none of this scepticism has made its way into the Federal Parliament.

Federal politicians seem unaware of the fact that the more recent the survey of the public, the lower down the list of priorities “taking action on climate change” is.   There is a reason for this, and it is explained by the type of people who make up our Parliament.

Overwhelmingly, the most common profession on both sides of the house is law.  It makes sense that lawyers would become involved in the lawmaking process, so a career in politics is an understandable progression.  But on any scientific issue, however, and there is none bigger than this at the moment, they are the people least qualified to deal with it and make sensible decisions.

There are essentially two reasons why we know everything to be the true – two reasons why we believe everything that we do.  Either we have seen evidence for it ourselves, or we trust the opinion of an authority on the matter.  The first of these is known as “argument by evidence” and the second is “argument by authority.”  For most people, our opinions are a cocktail of the two.  We may like a particular car because we drove it (argument by evidence) or because we read a review of it (argument by authority).  Usually, we have done both.

But there are two professions that operate at either ends of this spectrum.  Science works exclusively by “argument by evidence” and law works exclusively by “argument by authority”.  For scientists, precedent is nothing and evidence is everything.  For lawyers, precedent is everything, and evidence – well, in a case like this, they never even get as far as looking for it.

So that, for example, when we look at a Will Steffen – someone that is paid to believe in climate change – we view his opinions with a great deal of mistrust.  We understand that his employment is dependent upon the climate change thing being true, and he is not free to voice an opposing opinion.  When we hear him being interviewed and making increasingly shrill predictions, we never hear him providing any evidence for these predictions.  The lawyer, however, sees none of this.  All they see is that an eminent professor has expressed an opinion, and it doesn’t enter into their head that he may be wrong.  This is exactly how the law works.  If a particular legal case comes up, they will scour the books for a similar case in the past.  If they find one, they quote the outcome in this case as gospel truth.  It never even occurs to them, even for a moment, that the judgement may be seen to be wrong if it were subject to re-examination.  It is accepted without question, without scrutiny, and with no shred of doubt.

So when the lawyers in Parliament read the latest report from the IPCC or BOM or CSIRO they swallow it whole.  And given the nature of the profession, not only do they not question it, they make sure no one else does.  I discovered this recently when I tried to have a chat with Linda Reynolds (Lib WA) about it at a branch meeting.  I didn’t even get to finish asking my question before she cut me off with “oh, I think we all accept the science.”

And the tragedy of this is that there are a number of sceptics in Federal Parliament, on both sides of the chamber, but they are unable to speak their mind because of party discipline.  They feel that they must toe the “climate change” line.

So what do we do about it?  Well for a start, get me into Parliament.  I am standing for the WA Senate for the Christian Democratic Party (CDP).  I chose this party because it was unashamedly Conservative, has a deep mistrust of the Greens, and allowed me to run my campaign as I wished.  To this point, it has had a very rural focus.  As a chemical consultant to the farming sector  I am attempting to champion myself as someone who can overturn the influence of Canberra bureaucrats and departments (like the APVMA) on their farming practices – banning pesticides and herbicides without good science.  This has involved a number of circulars to farmers in which these issues are discussed.  I haven’t said much (although I’ve said a bit) about climate change scepticism, simply because given the current political climate, a lot of well-meaning people may have been duped by the propaganda on this and this might turn them off.

But not on this blog.  On this blog I can let rip.  And let rip I will if I get into Parliament.  I have a Ph.D. in chemistry and have studied the art of the polemic for years.  I would walk in there knowing that I was the most qualified and knowledgeable person on the topic by a country mile.  And I know how to use it too.  Also, as part of a minor party, I am able to do and say whatever I want.  And I can place this front and centre on the national agenda.  And I am hoping that this will encourage other politicians to come out of the closet, and we can begin to change the national dialogue on this.  Indeed, one possibility is that I may be part of a group of Conservative senators holding the balance of power.

Keep reading  →

8.9 out of 10 based on 93 ratings

Plans for an EU superstate to dissolve nations “into one”

This is so obscenely power-crazed I thought this might be satire. According to the Express a Polish TV channel received a leaked copy of a “bombshell proposal” that was to be put to some EU countries today. It’s a big-Government wet dream.

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations ‘to be morphed into one’ post-Brexit

The foreign ministers of France and Germany are due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum”.

Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels.

Polish news channel TVP Info….  reports that the bombshell proposal will be presented to a meeting of the Visegrad group of countries – made up of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia – by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier later today.

Like tossing powdered uranium onto the Euroskeptic fire. Hands-up who wants to be morphed?

Here’s a  Pew Survey of views in European countries before BREXIT. Looks like a GREXIT and FREXIT are calling.

People in Poland liked the EU more than most countries did — well, they did last week.

...

How popular would an EU super-morphed state be?

Keep reading  →

9 out of 10 based on 55 ratings

India to delay signing Paris agreement (Thank China)

India wants to be in the Nuclear Club — that’s the bargaining chip for signing the Paris agreement.

India won’t ratify the Paris agreement unless it gets membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) a club that was, as it happens, set up in 1974 when a naughty India set off a nuclear test. But China is completely against India earning its NSG badge. So the big two population elephants on Earth and the monster carbon emitters are not so concerned about the future of Earth that they are going to put other rivalries aside. Priorities, indeed.

Pretty much every nation on Earth has signed up for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – except for India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. In the NPT club there are five countries rated in the Platinum Frequent Flyer Bomb Class and the rest agree not to develop nuclear bombs but are (maybe) allowed to use nuclear power. Most of the few non-signers, like India, probably have bombs, but not the “license” for global bomb club membership. Now, China helps proliferate weapons in North Korea and Pakistan so it’s a tad rich that it claims to be afraid the NPT will fall apart if they let India in.

India already has something like 7 nuclear plants which make about 6000MW of electricity, so it can use nuclear power, but it also has 300 million people who don’t have any electricity and it does’t have a lot of domestic uranium. (India is even looking at thorium reactors to get around this). But its bargaining chip in the carbon game is access to the NSG club. Did Greenpeace see this coming?

As its NSG bid fails, India says Paris Climate Agreement ratification may be delayed

NEW DELHI: India’s high energy, high profile campaign to get into the NSG failed Friday morning, as China remained adamantly opposed to even considering the issue.

After a plenary meeting in Seoul, which saw Chinese diplomats attempt to block even a discussion, the 48-member nuclear cartel could not take a decision on India’s membership.

A last minute diplomatic outreach by Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese president Xi Jinping also failed to cut any ice.

A big outcome of the NSG failure is that India will now not ratify the Paris Agreement anytime soon. That agreement is a key element of US President Barack Obama’s legacy.

The Indian statement says clearly, “An early positive decision by the NSG would have allowed us to move forward on the Paris Agreement.” This will be a big blow to the Obama administration which wanted India to ratify the pact so it could enter into force.

— Read the rest in Times of India

How many negotiation points or dollars must the West give up in order to entice nations like China, India or Russia to sign strawmen agreements to change the weather? Gradually does the West cede advantage and wealth in order that parasites can profit and the climbers can win Dinner Party Kudos Points?

h/t Dennis

9.3 out of 10 based on 51 ratings

EU panic — yells “xenophobic isolationist” — at people who held the largest global empire in history

EU fans are rightly fearing the unravelling of their empire, built on decades of sneaky, undemocratic bureaucratic creep. The French, Austrians, Finns, Dutch and Germans want a vote on the EU.

All over the establishment media, the derogatory narrative is that “Little Brits” are scared of the outside world, and are xenophobic, racists, too afraid to engage with the rest of the world. So let’s look at how inward-looking and timid the Brits were in times before the EU modern wisdom.

Here’s the British Empire circa 1920:

The Sun never set on the British Empire

Map adapted from Wikipedia

Get into the spirit Rule Brittania! Want more?

“Little Britain” ran the largest empire the world has ever known — spreading democracy, justice, and one language across a broader array of races and places than any other nation.  (And the real Anglosphere includes The United States of America.)

The Brits are the bigots who outlawed slavery, widow-burning and fostered democracy in India.

It’s not surprising that the Brits are leading the way out of the false anti-democratic empire known as the European Union.

The fight has just begun

Based on past form, we know that self-serving Virtue-Signallers will do everything in their power to ignore the will of the people, to be intolerant, contemptuous, and disrespectful of the “ghastly” workers. They will use any excuse to hold another referendum, and shamelessly exploit every “hate-crime” as caused by “Brexit racists”. They will feed the fires of Scottish Independence to push another Button of Fear. For years global financial markets have teetered on the brink of failure with massive debts, exhausted quantitative easings, and negative interest rates — yet if they do collapse, Brexit will be blamed for a situation that the EU helped create.

 

 


9.4 out of 10 based on 110 ratings

Brexit reporting — nobody mention “Switzerland” or “Norway”

Both sides of Brexit were shocked — the Remainers because they have never met a Brexiteer nor bothered to read their arguments. And The Brexiters were a bit shocked too — amazed that despite the big-media bias, puffed up economic scare and the blanket of institutional warnings, the public can still fight off big-gov with their votes in a bloodless coup. It’s a rare win.

Who wants to be tied to an economic basketcase?

Under the media shock and warnings of  the recession coming almost no one mentioned “Switzerland”, or “Norway“. Here’s the GDP growth graph from the World Bank showing just how well the EU fares compared to the non-EU countries of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, The US, Switzerland and Norway. Note the success of the EU red line which in nearly every year is outdone by nearly everyone else. The economic disaster that the UK faces is better GDP growth.

EU GDP Growth 2008 - 2015, World Bank, compared to non-EU nations, Switzerland, NZ, US

EU GDP Growth 2008 – 2015, World Bank, compared to non-EU nations, Switzerland, NZ, US

The reasons to leave the EU were so compelling the amazing thing is that 48% of the public still voted to stay. Chalk that “success” up to the media, and on an education system that doesn’t teach children about logic reason and how to spot fallacious arguments.

From Tallblokes site:

Brexit, reasons to leave.

 

9.4 out of 10 based on 123 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

 

And What a Weekend it is too…

8.3 out of 10 based on 26 ratings

Brexit hanging in the balance: UPDATE Leave Wins! Big gov loses :- )

Watching those results come in on Marketwatch,  and The Telegraph  map from @WSJeurope.

FRIDAY MORNING: Results are swinging both ways. The betting is shifting.  Pound falling. Remarkable rise in the spot gold price.  Telegraph reporting that Brexit is now the favourite outcome, but Marketwatch and others saying that results still to come are more likely to favour Remain from heavily populated areas in London.

UPDATED: Who cares what happens in the Australian election next week. This is brilliant news and a historic moment! In the modern era finally the creeping growth of Big-Government has been pegged back.  Fittingly, the spot price of gold melted up by $100 in hours and the Kitco site melted down. Pollsters and analysts were flummoxed. The UK is a nation divided with a patchwork of areas being strongly pro or against, and no easy trend across the nation. ABC radio here is painting BREXIT as a bit of an “emotional” decision over immigration, in contrast making out that the fear of a economic pain for leaving is “rational”. As if leaving the economic basket-case that is the EU would be bad for an economy which gave more money than it took. The UK is the world’s fifth biggest economy and survived, prospered and thrived for 400 years without an EU agreement. Instead of being economically bad, this will help the UK grow as it will be freer to trade and to rebuild the Anglosphere partnerships. ABC commentators are saying this will not be good for Australia. But why?  Closer ties to the UK again are a natural fit for Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. An EU loss is a Commonwealth win. Falling stocks in the EU reflect the sclerotic nature of the EU economy — this is a bad day for companies dependent on big-gov subsidies and rulings that prevent open competition.

The Gold Price

Though they try, the gold price is about the only currency that, in the long run, is outside big-government control. Gold  is an anti-cheating device.

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9.2 out of 10 based on 83 ratings

Green Utopia? Adventure park wants to “go solar” but raze 15,000 trees

It takes bumper government subsidies to destroy this many trees for so little reason:

Six Flags Adventure Park goes Solar Slate

The plan, the largest solar installation in New Jersey, will generate 21.4 megawatts of electricity, enough to power the amusement park’s Garden State facility. The company projects that the initiative will eliminate approximately 215,000 tons of CO2 emissions over 15 years…

“We are excited about the fact that this project will reduce carbon emissions by 31 times more than the trees and shrubs that will be removed, and that we will become the world’s first solar-powered theme park,” said Kristin Siebeneicher, communications manager for Six Flags Great Adventure and Safari.

The 66 acres of native wildlife may not be so excited.

Nor are the surrounding hominids. Can’t please em’:

Local residents and environmental groups—including Clean Water Action, Crosswicks/Doctors Creek Watershed Association, Environment New Jersey, NJ Conservation Foundation, Save Barnegat Bay, and the Sierra Clubbeg to differ, claiming that razing nearly 15,000 trees will adversely impact water quality, air quality and sound quality; decrease the wildlife population; and affect biodiversity,…

Somewhere a plot of underground coal is being protected.

Welcome to a managed economy, where we try to fix weather problems by creating environmental and economic ones. In a free market, the forest might stay, the coal would be used, everyone would get cheaper electricity and have more cash to spare to use to go to the theme park and to donate to environmental groups.

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9.3 out of 10 based on 57 ratings

Local Event: Gold – and Western History – plus wine, cheese, Perth Friday night

Perth readers may want to come tomorrow night as David Evans discusses the role of gold in western history.

Gold – Past, Present and Future?

Classic Nights — History of Western Civilisation
An Adult Education initiative from St Augustine’s

Explores the history of gold as a medium of exchange, and its role in curbing financial shenanigans down the ages. The origins of banking, the global financial crisis, and the next decade — the world has more debt than ever before, the situation is not sustainable, and major changes of some sort are afoot. It’s a chance to discuss ideas that have shaped human history.

Current financial markers are a long way from the norm:

Welfare, Debt to GDP ratio, 2015, Bubble, Economy. Graph.

The welfare state enabled by the bubble in taxes, made possible by the bubble in money manufactured due to Greenspan’s policies.

To reduce the current bubble, central banks are trying to generate moderate but controlled inflation. The winners will be the borrowers (who don’t get wiped out with the volatility), the losers will be everyone else, especially the savers.

Event details below.

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8.4 out of 10 based on 30 ratings

Countdown to Brexit — Britain’s Independence Day?

Best wishes to our UK friends on this important day. UPDATE: Polls shut at 10pm on Thursday UK time (7am Friday AEST). Final Tally: “breakfast time” Friday in the UK ( which is  4- 6pm on the East Coast of Australia).

“… it’s the last chance most of us are ever going to get in our lifetime to vote for an outcome which is genuinely in the interest of us the people – the demos – rather than that of the increasingly powerful, ever-more-deeply-entrenched elite.”

James Delingpole

The British Isles Invented Freedom

“… the people of what is now called Great Britain created something entirely different from the closed and centralized regimes that have been the norm in most of human history. They produced a society where rulers were subject to the law and the law belonged to the people, where collective will did not trump individual right, and where free citizens were permitted to create and keep their own wealth. These principles have transformed the world: “The miracles of the past three and a half centuries—the unprecedented improvements in democracy, in longevity, in freedom, in literacy, in calorie intake, in infant survival rates, in height, in equality of opportunity—came about largely because of the individualist market system developed by the Anglosphere.”

Barton Swaim reviews Daniel Hannan’s Book

Cameron’s Elite Will Stop at Nothing to Win This EU Referendum:

The Big-Gov Octopus rewards so many:

“… I talked about David Cameron and why he’s prepared to win this referendum at almost any cost. Now here’s the worrying part. This doesn’t just apply to David Cameron. It also applies to:

George Osborne; Christine Lagarde; the 10,000 EU apparatchiks who earn more than the Prime Minister; Goldman Sachs and most of the rest of the finance industry; the Magic Circle law firms; the big corporations which just love all that Euro regulation because it wipes out smaller competitors; all the big left-wing charities, environmental ones like the RSPB and the WWF especially because the EU pays them so much money; corporate lobbyists; SJW activists at Avaaz and 350.org and Change.org; the IMF; George Soros; wealthy landowners – especially those with EU-mandated wind turbines paying them squillions; everyone who works in diversity, compliance, human resources, sustainability, and equality; Nick Clegg; Nick Clegg’s lawyer wife; Liberal Democrats generally; Chris Evans and Jeremy Clarkson; everyone at the Guardian; everyone at the BBC apart from Andrew Neil, probably; and so on.

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9.3 out of 10 based on 89 ratings

CO2 hits record high: Antarctic temperatures do nothing

The terrifying effect of CO2

Feel the panic.

South Pole CO2 levels cross 400 ppm first time in 4 million years!

WASHINGTON: The Earth passed another unfortunate milestone when carbon dioxide levels surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) at the South Pole for the first time in 4 million years, according to US scientists.The South Pole has shown the same, relentless upward trend in carbon dioxide (CO2) as the rest of world, but its remote location means it is the last to register the impacts of increasing emissions from fossil fuel consumption, the primary driver of greenhouse gas pollution, researchers said.

In response, the South pole temperatures “pause”

Satellites show the real warming effect of CO2 on the air over Antarctica (thanks Ken Stewart)

SP monthly

For thousands of years temperatures in West Antarctica have been higher than now.

Graph via WattsUP

Antarctic Temperatures, Holocene.

Temperatures (orange) peaked around 4,000 years ago (top graph). Graph: T.J. Fudge | University of Washington

 

Notice how CO2 controls the temperature in Vostok – Not.

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9.5 out of 10 based on 69 ratings

Asteroid kills 90% of all mammal species: Anthropocene kills one rat (maybe)

Compare the tallies. Sixty-five million years ago an asteroid smacked-down and only 10% of mammal species survived. So far in the Anthropocene Catastrophe, one type of rat has been wiped off a 300m island.

Press Release Mammals almost wiped out with the dinosaurs

A study by researchers at the Milner Centre for Evolution at the University of Bath and published in the Journal of Evolutionary Biology, reviewed all mammal species known from the end of the Cretaceous period in North America. Their results showed that over 93 per cent became extinct across the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary, but that they also recovered far more quickly than previously thought.

Afterwards, mammalian life recovered with unexpected speed and diversity. Chalk one up to nature and evolution. Not so fragile?

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8.8 out of 10 based on 51 ratings

Bring on the climate fraud game? If Exxon can be sued, so can Al Gore, renewables, insurance, banks,

From the Republican Attorney’s General in the US – the message that policing the “global warming debate through the power of the subpoena is a grave mistake.” The Rep AG’s point out this is a public policy debate, and if other AG’s are going to use the subpoena’s to shake down companies like Exxon for supporting free speech on one side of the debate, then suddenly a lot of players are opening themselves to similar cases.

Wall St Journal: Two can play at Climate Fraud

Eric Schneiderman and Sheldon Whitehouse, call your office. The New York Attorney General and Rhode Island Senator who helped to launch the prosecution of dissent on climate change may not like where their project is headed. Thirteen state Attorneys General have sent a letter pointing out that if minimizing the risks of climate change can be prosecuted as “fraud,” then so can statements overstating the dangers of climate change.

Since the money in this debate is so one sided, it follows that a lot more people have profited from exaggerating the scare:

But the AGs’ letter points out that, “If Exxon’s disclosure is deficient, what of the failure of renewable energy companies to list climate change as a risk?” If climate change turns out to be less serious than advertised, then “‘clean energy’ companies may become less valuable and some may be altogether worthless,” the letter adds.

Insurance companies that sell products to protect from extreme weather, droughts, and floods might reap rewards from prophecies of doom that are exaggerated, ya’think?

Warren Buffett: “We’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the last five years. If you’ve been writing hurricane insurance it’s been all profit.””

Likewise, bankers can call themselves heroes while they lobby for schemes to save the world where financial houses scoop in brokers fees in a 2 trillion dollar carbon trading pool. Then there are all the companies selling everything from electric car batteries, to wind turbines,  solar panels, pink batts, desalination, geothermal power,  and hydrodams. And let’s not forget bio-diesel, ethanol, and carbon sequestration.

Trading legal blows is not the way this should be done.

We don’t think anyone should be prosecuted for engaging in political debate, but progressives have shown (see independent counsels) that they’ll cease their abuses only when the same methods are used against them.

If AG’s are going to play this card, the only response is “bring it on”. As I’ve said many times, many of the players on the Global Scare Industry are heavily leveraged in this debate. Whereas coal companies sell a product that most of the world wants and cheaper than most of the competition, the renewables/ electric car / carbon market depend entirely on the existence of a Grand Global Weather Scare.

Bolt on Flannery:

Tim Flannery, 2007:

Over the past 50 years southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming….Desalination plants can provide insurance against drought. In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months.

Tim Flannery, 2007:

 

So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…

But in 2016 today’s flood alert for Sydney:

One of the biggest concerns was Warragamba Dam, which was already at about 98 per cent capacity.

h/t tip to Pat, Bolt,  others.

9.4 out of 10 based on 102 ratings

Weekend Unthreaded

9.2 out of 10 based on 32 ratings