Spotless Sun June 29th, 2016 | Spaceweather.com | SDO/HMI
The Sun is spotless again. I hasn’t been this inactive for a hundred years. This week there are a spate of news stories about a little ice age coming — even from the uber warmista Potsdam Institute.
Looks like a spot of bother for the people feeding off the carbon reduction gravy train? Not so. I predict they will mutate the argument, and with a completely straight face — the effect of carbon dioxide will turn out to be “more complicated”, scientists will rediscover that the molecule emits infra red too — and now rather than just simple warming, it will be responsible for “transforming regional patterns”, “shifting layers” and “wandering jet streams”. It will turn out the sun controls the climate but CO2 amplifies the solar effects. It’s bad, bad, bad — still causing storms, floods, rain on the weekends, rotting reefs and reckless fish.
Predicting discoveries is easy — just ask what establishment scientists would need to discover to keep their fame, status and salary package.
The Quiet Sun: “Winter is Coming”
A meteorologist at Vencore Weather, Paul Dorian, has stated that the sun has gone completely blank for the second time this month. He explained that this is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching. This would mean an increasing number of spotless days over the next few years.
The lack of sunspot activity has spread fears that it will prompt the arrival of a very cold period on Earth like that of the Maunder Minimum, which started in 1645 and continued till about 1715. This period is known as the Little Ice Age.
“At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir,” Dorian said in a Vencore Weather statement.
The current solar cycle is much lower than the one before it. Solar Cycles 23 (blue), 24 (red), 5 (grey).
This fits with predictions by Dr David Evans with the Notch Delay theory and with the double dynamo work of Shepard, Zharkov and Zharkova.
Evans found that the flickering changes in total solar light (TSI) lead temperatures on Earth with a delay of a half solar cycle (roughly 11 years). He found a major error in the current climate models which completely ignore a whole class of feedbacks. A model with the correct architecture shows the role of CO2 is a mere tenth of that predicted and when the notch and delay effect is included a solar driven climate model predicts cooling in the near future, most likely from 2017. The solar mechanism probably works through cloud cover due to some combination of solar wind, magnetic effects or spectral cycles (changing UV). Changes in direct sunlight are not responsible themselves, just a leading indicator.
Shepard, Zharkov and Zharkova posit that the sun operates as two separate dynamos on slightly different cycles, and predict that we are headed in the 2030’s for a point where the two dynamos are operating out of synch, effectively cancelling each other out.
“We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence that the solar activity in cycles 24–26 will be systematically decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period.”
UPDATE: And if you did think the world was more likely to cool rather than warm, you might want to know about Cool Futures: the plan to set up the Worlds first hedge fund that aims to pop the climate-bubble.
Potsdam Institute –“scientists are speaking of a little ice age.”
Pierre Gosslin at NoTricksZone puts this turnaround in perspective:
The daily Berliner Kurier here writes today that solar physicists at the ultra-warmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are warning that Europe may be facing “a mini ice age” due to a possible protracted solar minimum.
For an institute that over the past 20 years has steadfastly insisted that man has been almost the sole factor in climate change over the past century and that the sun no longer plays a role, this is quite remarkable.
REFERENCES
Evans, David (2015) The Notch Delay Solar Theory, ScienceSpeak.
Simon J. Shepherd, Sergei I. Zharkov, and Valentina V. Zharkova (2014) Prediction of Solar Activity from Solar Background Magnetic Field Variations in Cycles 21-23, The Astrophysical Journal, 795 46 doi:10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46
h/t Marvin, Rereke, Chris Dawson (CoolFutures)