JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Here’s my latest from The Daily Bail.
http://dailybail.com/home/climate-witch-hunt-the-new-inquisition.html
110
Labor blatantly chasing the womens vote…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-18/election-2016:-climate-change-and-women/7489354
40
That has to be the biggest load of bollocks that I’ve read, but nothing really unusual from that lot. They even link climate change to family violence! I just watched a program on Landline about the cattlewomen of the High Country and I didn’t hear any concerns about climate change, just a comment on how little city folk understand the land.
101
They really are desperate…roll on the Climate Nuremberg trials….
31
I don’t know why, but I was watching a Godzilla vs Destroyah (Oxygen Destroyer) movie just now and the science fiction depicted there is nothing compared to the fantasies these Oxygen Thieves (which immediately came to mind) are capable of creating.
31
The Silencing Of Skeptics (Massive news database).
“It is our freedom as Americans, particularly the freedom of speech, which generally allows us to express our views without fear of government sanction.”
— United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit,
October 28, 2015
http://www.akdart.com/warming5.html
30
If you have a look at: http://www.breitbart.com/, there’s an article (about something that I won’t mention) that is very germane to your point about ‘…fear of government sanction.’, though in a somewhat different context. I think this also goes to the heart of everything to do with so-called climate change as well, it’s what the general public doesn’t hear.
00
My words for the day to the climate change camp.
Roses are red;
Violets are blue;
The Climate is OK;
But I’m doubtful about you.
240
Your a poet and don’t know it!
Big smile my man!
70
No poet, Joe. But thanks for the complement.
That one wrote itself. But if I set out to do it intentionally, I get nowhere. And besides which, that last line should have been shorter, “But I’m doubtful of you,” would sound much smoother.
41
I won’t take your first sentence to its obvious conclusion. 😉
20
happy weekend all
fun jazz from the Notting Hillbillies
https://youtu.be/28-nADaCGqs
30
Fire…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTndcvf6awI
I have to be careful with what I say due to security reasons…
Media loves to put me into the quiet, do not talk about it box.
70
It could very well be. I am seeing censorship on recent news stories regarding wind turbine fires. Google results seems to be ‘missing’ them. I am a former fire chief and thankfully a few have e-mailed NEWS stories that have been published recently in the US. Canada went dead silent on the issue.
232
It’s definitely crossed many minds but is unspoken as not to give your enemies of fools ideas, but if the evidence is there it must be followed up by the relevant authorities, unfortunately the due process is now hindered from leftist dogma creating divisions and confusion within those once sworn to protect.
The USA like all Western Countries have had ‘Social Arsonists’ for decades leading to what we now see as acceptance of what was once considered immoral for the cause of appeasing those that wish to destroy what once was, the enablers and opposition will suffer the most for this social suicide but the elite designers will celebrate success unscathed.
Except this time the petard used will hoist them in ways not imagined by those that wear smugness as a crown.
71
A similar though applies to the use of body scanners at US airports , despite the reality that it seems they don’t work properly anyway. If the Israelis, don’t use them, that’s good enough for me.
Another thought about the insane security that the USA has ( including eye scanning which is treating every personal effectively as a criminal ) – when you have to resort to such measures, you’ve basically lost….
If you value freedom, based on history, once freedoms are lost they rarely are given back, as such, the USA is in a perpetual war that they cannot logically win in classic asymmetric warfare….and if you value freedom, removing freedom for temporary “security” is the antithesis of freedom, unless of course that was the original idea….
110
If you really are a serious criminal, and you know where to go, you can purchase contact lenses that confuse the retinal scanners.
But you are right. Taking freedom away from the people, in order to protect their freedom, is an oxymoron.
50
Question RW,
Are you or is anyone here able to provide a link that provides concrete support for the notion that the UN garners a percentage of any Governments ETS monies?
I have searched to no avail thus far.
Kind thanks,
Manfred
10
Manfred,
you may be aware that I started doing what I do back in March of 2008.
What I originally wanted to do was to find what the implications might be for the electrical power generation sector if Countries were to follow what was asked, to lower those CO2 emissions.
I chased up the Kyoto Protocol, and also the UNFCCC, and the more I looked, the more involved it became.
The general idea was to differentiate those Developed Countries from the Developing Countries.
The already Developed Countries were designated as those who were bound to reduce their emissions, and to set up ETS.
The Developed Countries, a small list, were the ones who had to pay ALL the costs associated with emissions reduction in the Developing Countries, and to pay all the costs and provide the technologies associated with introducing renewable power in those Developing Countries.
I did track down that the setting up of those ETS in the Developed Countries was one mechanism to be used for the source of money for those Developing Countries.
A secondary source of money was the CDM. (Clean Development Mechanism) and the two schemes are bound together.
As to your question regarding a link to where you might actually see this, I found that there was not just the one specific link, but a number of them, all referenced together.
However, as a starting point here, because now, 8 years later, it’s all hidden in the gobbledegook, sort of hidden in plain sight if you will, I tried to find an original link, and again. this is only one of a number of them.
This is from Wikipedia and I found it by accessing their Historical records. I had to go back many many many pages with 500 entries per page, but I did get back to around the time I started when I was looking into all this.
This is the link. (Wiki entry for July 2008)
Scroll down to the heading ….. Financial commitments, and read that short entry, and then all the text under the following heading ….. Emissions trading.
Again, what they say is sort of hazy, but I tracked it down from what was written under that first heading Financial commitments where it says that developed countries are to pay Billions (their words) and then linking back to the UNFCCC agreement.
It’s always been a sore point with warmists when I mention it, because they just don’t believe it, that the UN originally set all this up, not to ostensibly lower emissions, but to just place a cost on them and use that source of money for those still Developing Countries, which, as per Kyoto, needed to do no more than just report their emissions and to rake in the money I suppose, minus the, umm, middleman’s cut.
Hope this helps, but again, be aware they wanted to hide the intent all along, especially way back then.
Tony.
20
Manfred,
I am not the right person to answer that question. The money flows within the UN are very opaque. There is lots of money sloshing around, but where it comes from, and where it goes to, is a mystery to me.
But I would bet dollars to donuts, that some syphoning goes on, but how, where, and when, will definitely be a closely guarded secret.
20
Gentlemen, Tony and RW, my warm thanks to you both for your considered and helpful replies. Tony, I will follow the fox trail you suggested.
M.
00
“the petard” !!
Interesting use of words! 🙂
Casn you explain how “the petard” may actually hoist anything?
11
Gravity must win in the end, so I guess it must be a temporary measure.
20
Blown up by a bomb of ones own making.
Shakespeare had an interesting choice of words didn’t he?
60
As meltemain correctly noted,
Hamlet:
There’s letters seal’d, and my two schoolfellows,
Whom I will trust as I will adders fang’d—
They bear the mandate, they must sweep my way
And marshal me to knavery. Let it work;
For ’tis the sport to have the enginer
Hoist with his own petard, an’t shall go hard
But I will delve one yard below their mines
And blow them at the moon.
Hamlet Act 3, scene 4, 202–209
50
A definition is given here
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/petard
Maybe Shakespeare knew of the Middle French origin of the word and why he (deliberately?) misspelled it. That would add a touch of humor to the scene.
00
For those that don’t appear to have used their powers of discernment appropriately, it is only the protectors of freedom who are censored.
20
Doomsday Global Warming activists-politicians will drive/fly for thousands of miles to express their rage over other people’s fossil fuels usage.
. . .
Would you follow advice about personal energy conservation from a climate specialist with a large carbon footprint?
Statements about climate researchers’ carbon footprints affect their credibility and the impact of their advice.
First Online: 16 June 2016
Received: 10 September 2015
Accepted: 04 June 2016
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1713-2
“Here, we report the results of two large online surveys that measure the perceived credibility of a climate researcher who provides advice on how to reduce energy use (by flying less, conserving home energy, and taking public transportation), as a function of that researcher’s personal carbon footprint description.”
~ ~ ~
Example:
Amid melting Arctic ice, Kerry sees looming climate catastrophe
“Kerry made his first visit to this part of the Arctic to witness the effects of climate changes and press the need to implement the Paris climate accord.
He has called it “the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction”.
111
I have no doubt that it is part of their plan and it could prove to be a real problem here in Oz. All the more reason for the authorities to step up their prescribed burning program. It makes the event of serious and uncontrollable fires, from whatever cause, much less likely.
60
Previous comment should have appeared under Joe Lalonde’s comment. I must have clicked on the wrong reply button.
10
I wonder if they’ve consulted with Mr Flim Flam: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/warragamba-dam-wall-to-be-raised-to-avoid-catastrophic-flood-event-20160616-gpkqly.html?
70
bemused June 19, 2016 at 7:28 am
“I wonder if they’ve consulted with Mr Flim Flam:”
Why oh why is the damned dam still at 97.7% full, if more rain is projected? Does AU have some special “Stupid Schooling” for the managers of such projects?
Why not raise the damn dam’s wall only 10 meters “to-avoid-
catastrophica mere normal-flood-event. In the meanwhile, hire one qualified folk to manage both controlled release, and new construction! Give that one qualified folk complete veto over doing anything stupid! Insist that one qualified folk, locate his family home downstream and just above normal flood level!All the best! -will-
102
“Why oh why is the damned dam still at 97.7% full, if more rain is projected?”
Just updated yesterday according to the site is the status of the dam “Steady”
http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels
“controlled release” Perhaps it is not possible or flowing in at the max exit rate? The nearest prediction of rainfall I can find is Penrith with 20 to 70 MM.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/penrith.shtml
Here the “+2%” may indicate it has come up over the last week.
http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels
20
+0.2%
00
Siliggy June 19, 2016 at 9:33 am
“Just updated yesterday according to the site is the status of the dam “Steady” “controlled release” Perhaps it is not possible or flowing in at the max exit rate?”
Perhaps huh! Does your AU government now, or 50 years ago, build dams that cannot have controlled release providing flood level flow downstream? Is downstream now at flood level flow? What is the damn dam’s H14 spatio-temporal modeling protocol? Why not hire someone, anyone, that knows how to run a damn dam? Is this another case of know-it-all academics using spend computer programs to simulate something about which they have not a clue! Did your government buy such folk from NASA Goddard?
23
Will. They could be faced wth a choice between poisoning and flooding.
As the document linked to at 6.1.2 says.
Your guy whose house is downstream may have already made his choice.
30
Siliggy June 19, 2016 at 2:37 pm
“Will. They could be faced wth a choice between poisoning and flooding.” “Your guy whose house is downstream may have already made his choice.”
Indeed, that is precisely why you must have the experienced GUY, rather than computer output, determine the precise position of the sluice gates over the spillway! To open to normal flood flow, is safe, if over-toping cannot be! As the level rises, a decision is to be made to increase flow, causing excess flooding, but no over-toping (plan C), result GUY looses home and job! Else continue to observe increase in rise until over-topping occurs! Then GUY can only bend way way over and kiss young ass GOODBYE!
All the best! -will-
20
Siliggy – what in that statement refers to a poison? I’m a bit confused by your either poison or flood choice, as I don’t see a poison referenced.
00
What and how they know.
“An integrated decision support system for Sydney
Catchment Authority’s water supply planning and
operations”
http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/I11/harris.pdf
20
So the damn dam does indeed run on academic autopilot! Why not hire someone, anyone, that knows how to run a damn dam?
All the best! -will-
10
I think the problem lies with the fact that the managers are too scared to manage water appropriately, as the government has become paranoid about ‘dams running dry’ due to the predictions from the Flim Flam Man. That’s what caused all the issues a while ago in Queensland when water levels became critical in a major dam and floods ensued.
50
🙂
00
Law Dome ice core revelation – long droughts normal and natural over past thousand years.
‘Dr Tessa Vance from the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre said the study, just published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, could help improve catchment management strategies in drought-affected areas of Queensland and New South Wales.
“Up until now we had no clear way of knowing whether the prolonged drought Australia experienced recently was a historical anomaly,” said Dr. Vance.
“The study shows that the Millennium Drought was far from an exceptional event for eastern Australia during the past thousand years.”
“Droughts lasting longer than five years are in fact a normal part of long-term climate variability, and should therefore be factored into catchment management.”
70
As with the Great Barrier Reef not being in danger, all the climate worriers will do is put their fingers in their ears and go La La La La La.
20
Whilst the southern Australian wind turbines have been operating at around 20% capacity these past few days, the Tasmanian river power stations have been producing from 105 to 115% capacity. Their output seems to be pretty constant whereas the input from the King Is. turbine is constantly changing, at the moment between 127 and 175 Kw. And I assume it’s the same for the others.
50
Where would the country be without the power input from the King Island wind turbine?
20
The point was the variability in output of the wind turbines due to small changes in wind speed which has to be catered for somewhere in the system, and with 50% renewable it would create problems.
00
I put this up on the previous fred but may have slipped under the radar.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/17/malcolms-makeover-group-hijacks-turnbull-campaign-posters-in-w/
Visualize a sitting PM losing his seat, it happened to Johnny Howard and may happen again as both the left and right pummel Turncoat in his safe electorate.
50
Did you see my post in the previous unthreaded? If so be afraid, be very afraid, there is a history of, maybe I shouldn’t call them rigged, election results being down to the handpicking of a few votes and applying that to all of them – did they get the ides from the CAGW crowd?
Article in the Register regarding Australian election computer misuse
41
‘Counting votes under STV can be laborious, so some jurisdictions decide to just grab a random sample of votes and then use software to extrapolate results based on that sample.’
Orwellian overtones with a smoothing technique, but the authorities assure us they have eliminated the bug and there is nothing to interest us any further.
40
That was not a bug; that was a feature.
10
el gordo June 19, 2016 at 8:05 am
“I put this up on the previous fred but may have slipped under the radar.”: That same hufpo.AU thingy has this headline:
Do you think the clueless US politicians will ever realize that the whole US electorate has been forced to become totally racist, and lawless? The largest fear the US populous has is of the federal, state, and local police!!! ‘The US people behind bars, (is) the largest reported incarcerated population in the world.’
All the best! -will-
50
Trump’s success is down to people venting their spleen on a range of issues, not least racial and cultural differences brought in by new immigrants and refugees. The Leave and Stay debate in the UK is all about border security, but the left say its race based.
When the initial rush of blood eventually settles down it looks like President Clinton by a length.
As I said earlier, Australia is a successful multiracial society with a bright future.
You are probably unaware that China infrastructure has kept Australia out of a serious economic downturn. In Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane there are lots of tall buildings totally empty, presumably in preparation for the second wave.
11
el gordo June 19, 2016 at 11:33 am
“Trump’s success is down to people venting their spleen on a range of issues, not least racial and cultural differences brought in by new immigrants and refugees. The Leave and Stay debate in the UK is all about border security, but the left say its race based.”
I can only decidedly disagree with your interpretation!
The Donald has energised all that attempt to understand that NO ONE is CREATED equal, EACH is created unique!!
Even to folk that have disagreed with me for years, are now muttering hummmm! That big city high rise construction steelwalker, (I do not like him at all) with different color and language, who has no idea even how to plant beets, still has many learned skills that are way way beond my understanding!
“When the initial rush of blood eventually settles down it looks like President Clinton by a length.”
I doubt that either the Donald or the Hillary will remain alive by 20 January 2017!
“As I said earlier, Australia is a successful multiracial society with a bright future”
Perhaps! I have not been to OZ to observe the populious!
All the best! -will-
30
The Donald has a problem.
‘The presumptive nominee of the Republican Party seems to be having a problem with the Republican Party.
“We’re going to beat Hillary. And it would be helpful if the Republicans could help us a little bit,” Donald Trump said Saturday at a rally at the Treasure Island Resort in Las Vegas.’
ABC News
41
‘It has been a particularly bad week for Mr Donald Trump, with his unfavourability ratings spiking again, reports of a new Republican effort to deny him the nomination for the presidency at the party convention next month and details emerging of his cosy ties with President Vladimir Putin and Russian businessmen.’
The Straits Times
——
Can he walk away from the Republicans and still win as an independent?
11
el gordo June 19, 2016 at 5:26 pm
‘It has been a particularly bad week for Mr Donald Trump, with his unfavourability ratings spiking again, reports of a new Republican effort to deny him the nomination for the presidency at the party convention next month and details emerging of his cosy ties with President Vladimir Putin and Russian businessmen.’The Straits Times!
“Can he walk away from the Republicans and still win as an independent?”
What makes you think that ‘the Donald’ wants to win any US presidential election? You seem smart! Please expand (broaden) your expectations of the Donald and the very angry US electorate! What moves will enable the Donald to reap imense profit and f**k anyone else?
13
‘What makes you think that ‘the Donald’ wants to win any US presidential election?’
So you are saying he is just a spoiler or ‘disrupter’ of the political system like Evo Morales in Bolivia a decade ago? Trump wants to make a mockery of the existing political order?
Its the end of empire where a charismatic personality loses the 2016 election, yet retains 20/20 vision.
00
‘Pressure for one last attempt to dump Donald Trump built among Republicans on Sunday, as the party’s leader appeared to encourage a possible revolt that could still see an alternative nominee chosen at next month’s national convention.’
Guardian
——-
Ted Cruz?
00
Both Hillary and Trump are bad for the world, very bad, these are the worst candidates for the US presidency ever.
00
It must be contagious, all the candidates in Australia are also pathetic. Vote informal on a matter of principle.
01
Since the great climate shift of 1976 the TC winds in China have become less intense.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/jun/a6.php
It stands to reason that a return to cooler conditions should see a pick up in the intensity.
20
Everything below the line is global cooling, so from this vantage point I’m predicting a rerun of the 1950s and 60s.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/web_figures/hadcrut4_annual_global.png
The 1878-79 warm spike is more noticeable in this than the NOAA version.
21
Be mightily aware of the dreaded “East Coast Low”.
Two in two weeks.
Unprecedented.
Climate change.
It has never rained in winter before.
131
Watching some of the theatrics of some weather presenters I would not blame people for getting a bit ALARMED!!. The gesticulations and gyrations of ABC and 10 weathermen indicates some yearning for show biz.
81
That’s why Slim never wrote this from the Macleay in NE NSW in 1945:
http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/s/slim_dusty/when_the_raintumbles_down_in_july.html
30
Anyone heard from Timmy Flannelly of late?
00
Some definite over – hype going on by the media.
Then again maybe better to be safe than . .
GeoffW
00
Is CO2 a Cooling Gas ?
The idea that greenhouse gases might cool the atmosphere is not entirely new but empirical evidence is hard to find. In the case of water it is clear that higher temperatures are associated with dry conditions and that wet areas are overall cooler than dry areas at the same latitude and altitude. But water is a special cases due to changes of state (evaporation and condensation) and the high heat capacity. It is hard to separate out the pure radiative effects of water vapour.
But what about CO2?
Recently I came across this article by Dr David Evans
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/DavidEvansmissingsignature.pdf
Which was originally published on the Lavoisier website and recently republished on Principia Scientific International.
David quotes the IPCC AR4 report in which 6 different atmospheric profiles are calculated, including increased solar radiation, volcanic ash, atmospheric pollution and finally increased CO2.
The CO2 profile, as calculated by the IPCC scientists shows two features which are not seen on the others, namely a trosperic “hot spot” and a band of cooling in the stratosphere.
David then compares the calculated profiles with actual published observations from years of atmospheric balloon flights (radiosondes). The radiosondes show no tropospheric warming (hot spot) at all and that is a big blow to the greenhouse theory. But what the radiosonde data does show is atmospheric cooling in the stratosphere at the rate of >1C/century.
David puts that down an unknown influence. By Ockams razor I argue that atmospheric CO2 has increased during the study period and the stratospheric cooling is entirely consistent with the known radiative properties of CO2. Cooling not warming!
Incidentally I could not get the links in David’s article to work.
1016
Doesn’t sound too crazy to me . . . . .
59
If it is a cooling gas, then the science is settled!!!!
AND, we’ll just have to tax it for being a cooling gas.
612
Sounds like a cool future to me.
53
Yes peter,
CO2 is a cooling gas. The net effect of adding this gas to our atmosphere is atmospheric and surface cooling. The cooling effect of burning all know and projected fossil fuel reserves would however be immeasurably small.
In terms of radiatively cooling our atmosphere, H2O does all the work. This is why strong vertical tropospheric convective circulation ends at the tropopause. This is where the atmosphere runs out of H2O, and thereby runs out of radiative cooling and subsidence of airmasses.
The question never asked by climastrologist and lukewarmer alike is: “how hot would our atmosphere get were it not for radiative cooling?” Or: “why are there no planets or moons in our solar system that have managed to retain an atmosphere without radiative gases in the mix?” Or: “How hot would our surface average temperature be without cooling by a radiatively cooled atmosphere conductively and evaporatively cooling it?”
Now some good news,
Willis “It can’t be solar because…” Eschenbach at WUWT has finally stopped crawling and taken a few baby steps. He ponders why a northern/southern hemispherical difference in depth of the ocean diurnal convection / mixing layer could cause a differing ocean surface temperature response to solar irradiation. Soon he may work out the oceans are nothing close to a “Near Blackbody”. Power socket protectors STAT! No sharps within reach. Baby gates at the top of the stairs. No pot handles over hanging the stove. With sufficient care and attention a lukewarmer could grow into a strong sceptic and a asset to society. (Note – don’t cancel nappy service. It took Willis five years to get this far).
917
Thanks Konrad,
H2O does all the work. Yes I agree with that.
Willis Eschenbach sees the light. I read his article. This time he is thinking about the question but does not seem to have an answer.
39
Reminds me of what Salby says. In his video presentation in London on 17th March 2015 Salby argues that the atmosphere cools the surface by over 60K (see 1:01:00 in the video). According to the graph in the video, without an atmosphere the average surface temperature would be over 350K! Wow! This makes me wonder if the equation that’s commonly used to calculate the equilibrium black-body radiation temperature of Earth is flawed, since that predicts about 255K.
210
Here is a fuller treatment of Salby’s views from his latest textbook:
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/fearless-physics-from-dr-salby/comment-page-1/#comment-1569
20
Nice article Ron. I’m confused though, why all the red-thumbs? Have I misrepresented Salby or something? I thought Salby was considered a legitimate scientist by people here?
20
Richard June 20, 2016 at 10:57 pm
“Nice article Ron. I’m confused though, why all the red-thumbs? Have I misrepresented Salby or something? I thought Salby was considered a legitimate scientist by people here?”
I never do any thumbz! However Salby is nothing but a meteorological fortune teller with no science whatsoever! His textbook is but a tour-de-force of meteorological buzz-phrases with no meaning! For example pp392: 12.5.3 Quasi-geostrophic motion, good God, give us a break!
All the best! -will-
19
Seems a bit harsh to me Will. Have you considered writing a textbook of your own with the correct science and then having it published?
80
I did type “quasi-geostrophic motions” into Google and got quite a lot of results. Is there something wrong with it?
00
Richard June 22, 2016 at 4:50 am
“Seems a bit harsh to me Will. Have you considered writing a textbook of your own with the correct science and then having it published?”
Have you even tried to read that thing for comprehension? download:
http://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/jzavala/OceanoAtmosfera/Physics%20of%20the%20Atmosphere%20and%20Climate%20-%20Murry%20Salby.pdf
To me the first 200 pages of 717, are but an attempt to salvage sloppy Meteorological fantasy phrases like ‘air parcel’, ‘hydrostatic equilibrium’, ‘adiabatic process’,and ‘potential temperature’ as something with scientific meaning but fails miserably!
For example: “air parcel, which is defined by a fixed collection of matter.”, yet the troposphere remains ‘well mixed’! How scientific can be a ‘fixed collection’, which cannot be located? In compressible fluid dynamics the closest thing is a conceptual (imaginary) “particle”, the smallest fluid mass that retains coherent linear or rotational momentum.
Have you tried to read ‘any’ meteorology college text published in the last 50 years, and try to discern some science from all the mythology? The whole mess of academic meteorology refuses to accept that the surface airmass at the equator has a tangential eastward velocity of near 1000 MPH creating most all of the advection/convection of Earth’s atmosphere. The asymmetrical insolation adds much instability to such mechanical advection. It is no wonder that the meteorologists were so easily scammed by the AlGorestas!
All the best! -will-
07
“quasi-geostrophic motions”
“Quasi-geostrophic (QG) motion”: (Meteorological buzz-phrase with no scientific or physical meaning!)
refers to flows where the “Coriolis force”: (Meteorological buzz-phrase with no scientific or physical meaning! The closest physical is call ‘Coriolis Effect’, an illusion created by intentionally conflating a rotating reference, Earth’s surface, with an inertial reference where mass momentum can be understood.),
and “pressure gradient forces”: (Meteorological buzz-phrase with no scientific or physical meaning! There can be some dP/dt creating an accelerative force on the airmass),
are almost in “balance”:(Meteorological buzz-word. There can never be a ‘balance’ in the aerodynamic atmosphere.),
but with “inertia also having an effect.” (inertia of what? Some meteorological fantasy “air parcel”?)
00
There can be some dP/dt creating an accelerative force on the airmass),
This can also be considered a dP/dx accelerative force. It is the “pressure gradiant force” phrase itself, also used radially to confuse folk about the compressive nature of Earth’s gravitational field, that cannot be demonstrated nor falsified; that is so, very unscientific!
04
Hi Richard,
just read your comment on the equation used to calculate temperature of Earth surface acting as a black body.
If I remember correctly from many years back the equation was designed for use in a perfect black_body situation.
As there is no such perfect black body in existence and probably never will be, the equation is only useful in situations where calibration can be performed on the system being examined. Any suggestions that it can produce an absolute value is spurious.
This equation has been misused by warmers who neglect a great many factors involved in the heating and cooling of the system.
As for the heating properties of CO2 it’s only necessary to do a simple thought experiment. Here at the moment we are in the middle of winter and don’tstanding outside at night in the cold I ask myself what would the temperature be like if the sun didn’t come up tomorrow. I think that the answer to that question is, moving towards freezing especially after a few nights.
KK
12
Also Richard it’s not the equation that’s flawed it’s the people who are using it who are flawed.
🙂
17
‘…it is clear that higher temperatures are associated with dry conditions …’
Antarctica?
‘…and that wet areas are overall cooler than dry areas at the same latitude and altitude.’
Tropics?
The mid latitudes might provide the litmus test, its already accepted wisdom that cool dry air will warm if CO2 is pumped into the tent, but moist air under CO2 forcing shows no increase in temperature.
Konrad might be onto something.
312
Antarctica?
Well yes, it is supposed to be a desert but there is a lot of water there and look how cold it is!
Tropics? Mostly warm and wet but there are a few arid areas in the tropical zone, eg Arabian peninsula which are dry and very hot.
20
Hmm, out of my depth here – I am no botanist, but:
Is there a lack of vegetation on the Arabian peninsula, solely because of the lack of water? Or is there a lack of a water on the Arabian peninsula, because there is insufficient vegetation to keep a water cycle going?
Compare North Africa and the Arabian peninsula, with India and Indochina. Roughly the same latitude, land mass, etc. Just curious …
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G’day Rereke,
You ask a good question, but my bet is that it’s a lack of water causing the lack of vegetation.
I’ll try a word picture:
My place is just a few kms west of our Great Dividing Range which intercepts any onshore rain before it reaches me. Further west, between me and the Indian Ocean, at the same latitude there are a few hunded Kms of semi-arid country where the reliable agriculture is from irrigation. Then there’s the arid country before reaching desert, and finally the coast of WA. There no mountains as you know them in NZ.
Usually, any moisture coming from the west is dissipated before reaching me.
On the coast to my east is a place called Seal Rocks. So same latitude, but coastal, so cooler and wetter from any onshore rain. Between us is the Hunter Valley, which also benefits from the on shore weather, at least to some extent.
In summer I can get to 40C, but it’s usually hotter to the west, but hard to get a true latitude comparison, as both Dubbo and Broken Hill are further north. And I can’t even do a reliable comparison with Mudgee which is only 25kms away, but 150 metres
lower, and my thermometer is poorly sited.
So what? Climate is more than just latitude, as it’s also more than just CO2. And I’ve seen paddocks drought affected, but never heard of them being CO2 deficient.
As to whether forest create rain? That’s not my experience, but I’ve not researched it. I think the air masses get their moisture (for me) either from the Pacific or the Indian oceans.
Hope this helps.
Cheers
Dave B
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Peter C June 19, 2016 at 8:56 am
“Is CO2 a Cooling Gas ? The idea that greenhouse gases might cool the atmosphere is not entirely new but empirical evidence is hard to find. In the case of water it is clear that higher temperatures are associated with dry conditions and that wet areas are overall cooler than dry areas at the same latitude and altitude. But water is a special cases due to changes of state (evaporation and condensation) and the high heat capacity. It is hard to separate out the pure radiative effects of water vapour.”
Peter,
Your difficulty is ONLY your refusal to treat the electromagnetic as completely disjoint from the thermodynamic, or even thermostatic! A increase in the application of sensible heat never ever induces plant growth. The introduction of EMR flux in the range of 0.4 to 0.7 microns, always increases such plant growth with no noticeable increase in sensible heat or temperature!
Please, please, please, Electromagnetic power transfer is easily explained, in all known cases by understanding Maxwell’s equations, in both quaternion matrix algebra, and its conjugate the Poynting vector algebra! This is further confirmed by the Yang-Mills theorem, and all of Quantum electrodynamics.
What cannot ever be done, for any understanding is to treat EMR flux as thermodynamic sensible heat. Sensible heat requires mass to be sensible. EMR power transfer requires no mass whatsoever!
We can discuss what power transfers are permissible with EMR, but only if the insane concept that surface temperature MUST PRODUCE some outward EMR flux as is claimed by the CAGW scammers is absolutely once and for all, destroyed! Can we not even try to establish, what is measurable, thus scientific, and what is religious fantasy?
All the best! -will-
313
Will Janoschka:
“A increase in the application of sensible heat never ever induces plant growth. The introduction of EMR flux in the range of 0.4 to 0.7 microns, always increases such plant growth with no noticeable increase in sensible heat or temperature!”
This sounds interesting. Can I get one of these radiators at Bunnings? I ask because I have a poorly insulated greenhouse which doesn’t stay much above ambient temperature in winter. How does the flux work? Does it excite the water molecules? Would the metal sided water tank or the metal shelving absorb the EMR flux?
I would like to grow 6 foot tomatoes in the depths of winter if it were possible.
20
Graeme No.3 June 20, 2016 at 1:01 am
(Will Janoschka: “A increase in the application of sensible heat never ever induces plant growth. The introduction of EMR flux in the range of 0.4 to 0.7 microns, always increases such plant growth with no noticeable increase in sensible heat or temperature!”)
Put your Tomato plants in a black polyethylene bag with plenty soil, water, fertilizer CO2. Heat the whole mess to room temperature. Watch the plants die! Add a red/blue 10 Watt LED grow lamp to induce photosynthsis. Watch yummy tomato fruit develop!
“This sounds interesting. Can I get one of these radiators at Bunnings? I ask because I have a poorly insulated greenhouse which doesn’t stay much above ambient temperature in winter.”
Put the florescent or LED grow lamps in your basement!! In the US, then have the cops raid your basement, eat your tomatoes and introduce some marijuana plants as evidence of your illegal grow operation.
“How does the flux work? Does it excite the water molecules? Would the metal sided water tank or the metal shelving absorb the EMR flux?”
“I would like to grow 6 foot tomatoes in the depths of winter if it were possible.”
Most mass does somewhat absorb and convert EMR flux to sensible heat. In most cases such conversion is much overrated by Climate Clowns. In the red and blue spectrum that EMR is converted to carbohydrate mass and latent heat of water evaporation, instead of sensible heat!
All the best! -will-
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“We can discuss what power transfers are permissible with EMR, but only if the insane concept that surface temperature MUST PRODUCE some outward EMR flux as is claimed by the CAGW scammers is absolutely once and for all, destroyed!”
I’m curious. In an enclosed cool room (hence no external electromagnetic radiation), place an IR thermal imaging camera whose temperature is higher than the temperature of the walls of the enclosure. In the field of view of the camera, place (a) a triangular plate whose temperature is higher than the wall temperature but lower than the camera temperature, and (b) a square plate whose temperature is higher than the camera temperature. Take a “picture.” An image of the triangle and square will appear. If, as you say, no electromagnetic radiation emanates from the triangle and/or the square, how does the camera know to form the pattern of a square and a triangle, much less put those patterns in their correct geometrical positions?
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Reed Coray June 20, 2016 at 2:47 am
(“We can discuss what power transfers are permissible with EMR, but only if the insane concept that surface temperature MUST PRODUCE some outward EMR flux as is claimed by the CAGW scammers is absolutely once and for all, destroyed!”)
“I’m curious. In an enclosed cool room (hence no external electromagnetic radiation), place an IR thermal imaging camera whose temperature is higher than the temperature of the walls of the enclosure. In the field of view of the camera, place (a) a triangular plate whose temperature is higher than the wall temperature but lower than the camera temperature, and (b) a square plate whose temperature is higher than the camera temperature. Take a “picture.” An image of the triangle and square will appear. If, as you say, no electromagnetic radiation emanates from the triangle and/or the square, how does the camera know to form the pattern of a square and a triangle, much less put those patterns in their correct geometrical positions?”
A imaging camera like FLIR Systems C2 uses an array of micro bolometers to measure the one way instantaneous flux to or from each bolometer. The reference temperature is the temperature of the camera body itself (near the bolometer array). If an individual bolometer is absorbing, its temperature and electrical resistance increases indicating that the external image projection location of that bolometer has a higher radiant intensity than that of the bolometer. The exact opposite is true when that bolometer is emitting. If there is no emission or absorption (lens cap on) there is no change in bolometer temperature or resistance. In all cases the camera can and does generate a color coded spatial mapping of both magnitude and direction of radiative flux. Radiative flux ceases at zero deferential radiance, just like conductive thermal flux ceases at zero sensible heat/temperature potential difference.
Those cameras are very inexpensive because:
1. Measurement is very sloppy. Not even the spectral bandwidth is determined.
2. The internal computer establishes sensitivity for each bolometer at auto calibrate.
3. They are very slow!
A good military IR camera is upward of US$120,000! Even that crappy AN/TAS-4 (1978) was US$48,000!
All the best! -will-
08
I have very little experience with non-cooled IR imaging cameras, so I’ll take your word for it that (a) measurement is sloppy, (b) the internal computer establishes sensitivity for each bolometer at auto calibrate, and (c) they are slow–i.e., they require long exposure times. What I can’t accept is the idea that the camera’s bolometers know when and how much to radiate in each direction based on what is or isn’t in the field of view. For example, place a uniform temperature sheet between the camera and the triangle/square. If what you say is true, the camera’s bolometers know how much power to radiate in each direction. Now remove the sheet. If what you say is true, the camera’s bolometers now know that they must change their radiation patterns (intensity as a function of direction). If no information passes from the objects in the field of view to the camera’s bolometers, on what basis do the bolometers decide it’s time to change their radiation patterns?
00
Continuing my 2:41 am, 21 June 2016 reply. And if information passes from the objects in the field of view to the camera’s bolometers, what is the mechanism by which the information is transferred–light, sound, smell, touch, pressure, etc.?
00
Reed Coray June 21, 2016 at 2:41 am
“I have very little experience with non-cooled IR imaging cameras, so I’ll take your word for it that (a) measurement is sloppy, (b) the internal computer establishes sensitivity for each bolometer at auto calibrate, and (c) they are slow–i.e., they require long exposure times.”
Thank you! That you have no experience whatsoever, is clearly evident, and painfully obvious!!!
“What I can’t accept is the idea that the camera’s bolometers know when and how much to radiate in each direction based on what is or isn’t in the field of view.”
There is no need of any knowledge of any bolometer! This is the same as “for example”, an iron wire of any diameter and length between the thermal potentials of boiling water and freezing water, 100°C, 180°F,!! 🙂 Look up in any engineering chart the thermal conductivity of “iron wire”. Calculate the thermal flux in W/Area for that wire. Go back with in series different sensor “flux meter”,to verify that said engineering chart was ‘right on the money’! Done every day all over this world!
“place a uniform temperature sheet between the camera and the triangle/square. If what you say is true, the camera’s bolometers know how much power to radiate in each direction.”
This is but your insane fantasy to promote the concept that thermal EMR flux exists in opposing directions at any frequency, or in any direction.
For 55 years now, I cannot find any evidence that such exists, or evidence that will even remotely allow such opposing thermal radiative flux to exist!
“Now remove the sheet. If what you say is true, the camera’s bolometers now know that they must change their radiation patterns (intensity as a function of direction). If no information passes from the objects in the field of view to the camera’s bolometers, on what basis do the bolometers decide it’s time to change their radiation patterns?”
There is no knowledge by anything physical! Engineering only carefully measures the result of what is physical The fantasy why,,, is left for the scammers of CAGW, banksters, politicians, and of course Reed Coray!
For joanne and David!! Here I am at wits end!!! Upon awakening I can no longer decide to “scratch watch, or wind ass”
All the best! -will-
010
Will, as I said before, discussing anything with you is like interacting with Humpty Dumpty. Random unrelated comments and exclamation points seem to be your forte. Your statement “For 55 years now, I cannot find any evidence that such [EMR flux in opposing directions] exists, or evidence that will even remotely allow such opposing thermal radiative flux to exist!” doesn’t mean EMR flux in opposing directions doesn’t exist, it only means it (i.e., evidence, not opposing EMR flux) will never exist in your mind. I have only myself to blame for starting and continuing this and other discussions with you. So I’ll sign off with an admittedly puerile comment. You wrote: “For joanne and David!! Here I am at wits end!!!” That must have been a short trip.
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Reed Coray June 21, 2016 at 2:47 pm
“doesn’t mean EMR flux in opposing directions doesn’t exist, it only means it (i.e., evidence, not opposing EMR flux)”
The concept of opposing EMR flux at the same frequency cannot rise to even the level of abstract conjecture! There simply is no way to demonstrate or falsify that concept! Such nonsense contradicts all of Maxwell’s equations, Yang-Mills theorem, and Quantum electrodynamics!!
All the best! -will-
09
I have had to oik dead birds, and birds eggs, out of microwave wave-guides. They were somewhat over-cooked.
I agree that EMR contains no heating properties in and of itself. But it seems that other objects will produce resonant heat, at certain EMR frequency bands.
So I have difficulty in accepting that you can, “… treat the electromagnetic as completely disjoint from the thermodynamic, or even thermostatic …”
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Rereke Whakaaro June 20, 2016 at 7:13 am
“I have had to oik dead birds, and birds eggs, out of microwave wave-guides. They were somewhat over-cooked. I agree that EMR contains no heating properties in and of itself. But it seems that other objects will produce resonant heat, at certain EMR frequency bands.”
Yes! All mass has some emissivity/absorptivity at each frequency, much can be very low so little EMR is converted to sensible heat. The water in any phase can be highly resonant match impedance at microwave frequencies especially 2-3 GHz of microwave ovens. If you measure the narrow band field strength (radiant intensity or radiance) of your microwave source then convert that backward via Planck’s equation to an equivalent temperature, you now have what is called narrow band ‘brightness temperature’, the temperature a black thermal EMR source must be at to create that radiance in that frequency band. A pulsed kiloJoule CO2 laser at 10.6 microns, can have an instantaneous ‘brightness temperature’ of several million Kelvin.
“So I have difficulty in accepting that you can, (“… treat the electromagnetic as completely disjoint from the thermodynamic, or even thermostatic …”)”
After the EMR flux is converted to sensible or latent heat (if it is so converted) Then and only then can such be considered thermal. This than can create new thermal radiance at whatever frequency is of interest! The thermal work function for conversion to sensible heat can be very low (pico-EV) for terrestrial AC power transmission.
All the best! -will-
00
Not a qualitative argument. If there was an object 150 million km from the Sun that was good absorber and emitter (black) in the LWIR region but white in the visible, you would expect it to be cooler than a pure black object in both. It would emit LWIR as well as the pure black object but absorb only half the Sun’s radiation.
Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere makes the Earth more like such an object but the frequencies of LWIR absorbed in the atmosphere by water vapour and CO2 has to be emitted by a much cooler upper atmosphere than the surface – half the GHE. The other half is that for the amount of energy out to go back to equal the energy in, both the surface and upper atmosphere need to warm up.
The cooling effect is small. The second is significant and the last is an assertion that is poorly justified.
00
RB. June 19, 2016 at 7:03 pm · Reply
“Not a qualitative argument. If there was an object 150 million km from the Sun that was good absorber and emitter (black) in the LWIR region but white in the visible, you would expect it to be cooler than a pure black object in both. It would emit LWIR as well as the pure black object but absorb only half the Sun’s radiation.”
Just what are you tring to spout with your ‘white’ in the visable and black in the LWIR?
At each frequency, and in each direction the summation of some quantity of any mass radiative properties; absorptivity, transmissivity, and reflectivity,must always equal unity. Just what new do you have to offer?
“Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere makes the Earth more like such an object but the frequencies of LWIR absorbed in the atmosphere by water vapour and CO2 has to be emitted by a much cooler upper atmosphere than the surface – half the GHE. The other half is that for the amount of energy out to go back to equal the energy in, both the surface and upper atmosphere need to warm up.The cooling effect is small. The second is significant and the last is an assertion that is poorly justified.”
Have you any evidence that what you claim is correct or even significant? Can we not discard all the BS and even try to learn?
All the best! -will-
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Is it really that hard to follow or are you deliberately being annoying?
I think I was pointing out what happens if you have different values at different frequencies and different spectrum for incoming to out going but I suspect that you don’t give sh…
Its irrelevant anyway. Just a hand waving way you would say why CO2 would have a small cooling effect. Its all a very short summary of why to concentrate on the assertion that the surface needs to warm to make up for the some LWIR from the surface absorbed by the atmosphere and emitted by a cooler top of atmosphere. Not a thesis.
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RB,
Will is being harsh again, but you are on the right track. (But on the right track to getting only half of the answer).
Take three imaginary planets without atmosphere:
Planet Polished Aluminium (a>e)
Planet Near Blackbody (a=e)
Planet White Titanium Oxide (a hemispherical LWIR emissivity around 0.69. But you can’t use the S-B equation to solve for solar heating of the oceans, as SW is absorbed at depth in the LWIR opaque oceans. You need empirical experiment or CFD (computational fluid dynamics).
If surface without radiative atmosphere should be 312K and our current average surface temperature is 288K, what is the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere?
PS. Note to the red thumb brigade: This is science. “Tone” has nothing to do with it.
013
Sorry RB,
The above comment is gibberish. The system only posted 25% of the text. Jo? WUWT?
00
Found it. System was treating math as html code. (This is why we can’t do science on the Internet!)
RB,
Will is being harsh again, but you are on the right track. (But on the right track to getting only half of the answer).
Take three imaginary planets without atmosphere-
Planet Polished Aluminium (a greater than e)
Planet Near Blackbody (a equal to e)
Planet White Titanium Oxide (a less than e)
For an average of 240 w/m2 of surface incident solar, planet Blackbody would average 255K, but planet Polished aluminium would run hotter, while its absorptivity of solar SW is low, its LWIR emissivity is lower. Planet White Titanium Oxide would run cooler, while its SW reflectivity is fair, but its LWIR emissivity is very good.
Now add a radiatively cooled atmosphere like ours to each, conductively coupled to the surface. Now planet Polished Aluminium runs cooler, Near Blackbody warmer, and White Titanium Oxide far warmer.
This simple thought problem, solvable with the S-B equation, teaches two important things. Whether or not a radiative atmosphere warms or cools the surface of a planet depends on the radiative cooling ability of the atmosphere and the surface properties of the planet.
But, as I said, that is only half the problem. Sure our planet, Planet Ocean, is closer to Planet Aluminium than planet Near blackbody. Water has hemispherical SW absorptivity around 0.9 > hemispherical LWIR emissivity around 0.69. But you can’t use the S-B equation to solve for solar heating of the oceans, as SW is absorbed at depth in the LWIR opaque oceans. You need empirical experiment or CFD (computational fluid dynamics).
If surface without radiative atmosphere should be 312K and our current average surface temperature is 288K, what is the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere?
PS. Note to the red thumb brigade- This is science. “Tone” has nothing to do with it.
518
I like the outline Konrad.
KK
18
“PS. Note to the red thumb brigade- This is science. “Tone” has nothing to do with it.”
Konrad,
What are your (a)s and (e)s? If you mean ‘absorptivity’ and ’emissivity’ please remember absorptivity exactly equals emissivity for any mass at each frequency and in each direction! So sayest Gustov Kirchhoff,with Rudolph Clausius agreeing! Just look at the pictures of Rudy and Gus! You do not want to futz with either one! 🙂 Jimmy Maxwell was very nice! He had funny hair and died way to young! Luddy Boltzmann was very serious and not much fun!
All the best! -will-
160
What are your (a)s and (e)s?
Good question Will. I should have clarified. It’s absorptivity in the SW and SWIR and emissivity in the LWIR. Gustov Kirchhoff and Rudolph Clausius are correct (a) must equal (e) for any material for a given frequency. But the surface of our planet is absorbing and emitting at very different frequencies. Surface properties matter.
Here are Konrad’s five rules*. These were derived by empirical experiment and confirmed against CFD modelling. They show that if a material is translucent to SW but opaque to LWIR the game changes. It changes again for solid or liquid in a gravity field.
*My empirical experiments conducted in 2011 turned out to be just repeating work done by researchers at Texas A&M in 1965. Old news to some. Black magic to the scientifically illiterate climastrologists.
PS: To the red thumb brigade – 34 red thumbs? But no 34 scientifically reasoned counter arguments with supporting empirical experiments? Way to show you have nothing. Comment is free! Step up to the plate. You could win a prize!
011
Konrad June 21, 2016 at 6:57 pm
(“What are your (a)s and (e)s?”)
“Good question Will. I should have clarified. It’s absorptivity in the SW and SWIR and emissivity in the LWIR. Gustov Kirchhoff and Rudolph Clausius are correct (a) must equal (e) for any material for a given frequency. But the surface of our planet is absorbing and emitting at very different frequencies. Surface properties matter.”
I agree wholeheartedly! To be pendantic: “Planet Polished Aluminium (a>e)”!! I can and have polished aluminum, stainless, and glass: then vacuum deposited more aluminum, plus 75 uinches of SiO to that surface for protection. Measured reflectivity GT 99.99% from 0.1 micron to GT 200 microns. Paint on one side some gloss white TiO2 pigment stripes and emissivity goes to GT 90% at all wavelengths more than 3 microns. This is how ‘all’ passively control temperature of spacecraft. Just rotate until the correct surface faces the Sun! Dial a temperature!! Lockheed even gold plated some of theirs, look so pretty!
All the best! -will-
10
Dial a temperature!!
Also known as the “BBQ roll”. Worked for Apollo. But check out the James Webb telescope! MLRI with true vacuum not scrim separation. Angles set to squirt the IR out the edges? This is radiative physics on stilts!
Yes Will, besides empirical experiments and CFD, I use spacecraft thermal control calcs. (You know my secrets!) Who would forget depth of absorption or variations in spectral absorptivity and emissivity? Only an inane climythologist! Sane folks don’t use the S-B equation for determining efficacy of back silvered quartz radiators for on orbit thermal control of electronics.
PS. Red thumb brigade? You hoo! Oh youhoodles!! Your red thumbs are not enough to win. This is the age of the Internet. The record of your red-thumbing “Konrad” without any vaguely intelligent counter argument is permanent. Are any of the red thumb brigade actually better than me at radiative physics, computational fluid dynamics or spacecraft thermal control? Nope, didn’t think so. Red thumb away. Choose “warming but less than we thought”. Warmists feed on your intellectual weakness.
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Konrad June 22, 2016 at 7:42 pm
(“Dial a temperature!!”)
“Also known as the “BBQ roll”. Worked for Apollo. But check out the James Webb telescope! MLRI with true vacuum not scrim separation. Angles set to squirt the IR out the edges? This is radiative physics on stilts!”
Indeed Konrad, neat stuff, trying to learn how to operate a surfboard, while standing on the shoulders of GIANTS like Rudy, who would nicely let you pick, one from the triumvirate of Cops, Mom, or Dad, each who could actually accelerate your learning ability, in a truly unforgettable manner!
“Yes Will, besides empirical experiments and CFD, I use spacecraft thermal control calcs. (You know my secrets!) Who would forget depth of absorption or variations in spectral absorptivity and emissivity?”
Clearly that is the 97% that agree on this absolute… Godawful scam! It seems that the 3% with some remaining personal integrity, remain Last Pig on the way to the trough!
“Only an inane climythologist! Sane folks don’t use the S-B equation for determining efficacy of back silvered quartz radiators for on orbit thermal control of electronics.”
That is insulting! I always used the S-B equation to limit my order of magnitude errors! Such did not help much!
Woodja please check my numbers, please!…… Will, ya did it again. “Ya put the PI in the gasinta, rather than on the gasonta, AGAIN”. Will please quit that!, BTW, Will, you get to buy the next 4 first rounds! Thank God for co-workers!
“PS. Red thumb brigade?”
I am glad to see that you are now earning them, rather than buying them ‘punk’!, make my day!
All the best! -will-
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Konrad June 22, 2016 at 7:42 pm
(“Dial a temperature!!”)
“Also known as the “BBQ roll”. Worked for Apollo. But check out the James Webb telescope!”
The heat shield thermal control design is very good, and should have no problems. That actual telescope design is truly marvelous! Even the late Dr. Aden B. Meinel, who could, would, and did, rip apart any optical design; would be quite pleased with this one! 18 segment f1.2 elliptical primary, (six each, of only 3 (con)figures)), only 3 spares needed, in case of an oops!.. He would still be very concerned about how the hell you are going to keep that hyperbolic secondary in 6DOF, prezactly, where it must remain to have any telescope at all!!
I hope the launch folk have learned their lesson with the Hubble telescope! Each of the folk that busted their ass making that thing pearfict must be the only ones allowed to QC the assembly! They are the only qualified, and though not superstitious will have all fingers and toesies crossed, from pre-launch until first light!! 🙂
I can see it now, one of them looking parallel to the gold surfaced Be. Somebody touched it!! Whose fingerprint, is it? I wish to have a discussion with the owner of said finger!!
All the best! -will-
00
As you read this, the east coast of Australia is experiencing a weather event referred to as an East Coast Low (ECL).
Australia’s PM, Malcolm Turnbull, a ‘believer’ in the 97% consensus Doomsday Global Warming ‘science’, said …
“Certainly, larger and more frequent storms are one of the consequences that the climate models and climate scientists predict from global warming.”
Fact-checking, The Conversation confirmed this: Verdict; Malcolm Turnbull was essentially correct on both points.
So many more questions for that self-assessed fact-check for another day.
Here’s one.
> What did the settled science say before?
2008, Our Hot, Dry, Future by David Jones, BoM.
“The autumn drying trend was first noticed in south-west Western Australia in the mid-1970s, and has subsequently spread to the south-eastern states.
This rainfall decline is driven by a rise in atmospheric pressures, and a weakening of cold fronts and low-pressure systems that once reliably brought
rainfall to southern Australia.
This shift in weather systems and rainfall has been linked by scientists to human-induced [Global Warming], be it through greenhouse gases or changes in the
ozone layer over Antarctica.”
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Are the people over at the”Conversation” really scientists? I read the comments and was not impressed by the gullibility displayed. It seems to be an echo chamber for gormless twits.Then again,that describes modern academia.
81
Anything linked to the MSM is a Leftist repeater station…..
51
‘The evidence appears to be strong that extreme rainfall will increase…’
Good widespread winter rains with La Nina waiting in the wings, I smell the stench of global warming hysteria.
81
the end of fossil fuels?
17 Jun: OffshorePost: Oil Supermajors Form Ties in Russia
BP and Shell have announced two separate projects in Russia this week, after having signed agreements to cooperate with two Russian major oil and gas companies.
While BP has just created a joint venture (JV) with Rosneft in Western Siberia, Shell is to sign a deal with Gazprom for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the Baltic Sea.
“This agreement and creation of a new joint venture reinforces BP’s commitment to our strategic investment in Russia and our long-term partnership with Rosneft. In the current low oil price environment, we continue to look for opportunities for future growth,” the President of BP Russia, David Campbell, said…
In its initial stage, the JV, which will be owned 51% by Rosneft and 49% by BP, will carry out appraisal work on the Baikalovskiy field and on exploration of Zapadno-Yarudeiskoye, Kheiginskoye and Anomalnoye licenses in Western Siberia…
BP has committed to invest US$300 million (£210.26 million) in the JV’s activities while Rosneft will contribute with licenses and operational experience…
Meanwhile, Shell is planning to sign a deal with Gazprom for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project at the port of Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea, following an agreement signed at the 20th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg.
The project aims to diversify and strengthen Gazprom’s LNG portfolio and is expected to include a two-train LNG plant and a pipeline.
The plant will have a capacity for 10 million tonnes of gas per year, with an option to expand to 15 million tonnes and should start operating in December 2012.
The deal will reportedly provide Shell a 25-35% stake in the project and Gazprom estimated the costs at about US$10 billion (£7 billion)…
http://www.offshorepost.com/oil-supermajors-form-ties-russia/
17 Jun: OffshorePost: Det Norske To Start Drilling Central North Sea
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has granted Det norske a drilling permit for a wildcat well located in the central North Sea…
The other licensees in the project include Tullow Oil Norge (30%), MOL Norge (10%) and Fortis Petroleum Norway (10%)…
Meanwhile, Det norske and BP recently announced a merger through the purchase of shares in BP Norway, creating a “leading independent offshore exploration & production company” in the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS)…
http://www.offshorepost.com/det-norske-start-drilling-central-north-sea/
70
lol.
16 Jun: BBC: Dalzell and Clydebridge steel plants to make metal for wind turbine towers
Two Lanarkshire steel plants which were mothballed last October are to resume production with a contract to produce heavy-duty steel for wind towers.
Liberty House has announced that the former Tata plants at Dalzell and Clydebridge, which are set to resume production in September, will make the steel plate needed for the towers.
Liberty House started recruiting staff at the Scottish plants last week…
Liberty House’s executive chairman Sanjeev Gupta said: “We are very excited about this new opportunity. It is an excellent example of how we are integrating our steel production and manufacturing supply chain to create a robust industrial eco-system…
The Scottish government set up a steel task force after Tata announced it was mothballing the plants in Motherwell and Cambuslang.
The government later bought the mills and immediately sold them to Liberty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-36548597
where will the coal come from? here’s one future possibiity!
15 Jun: EnergyDeskGreenpeace: EDF is lobbying for a new opencast coal mine in the UK
by Zachary Davies Boren
Energy giant EDF is pushing for the development of a new opencast coal mine in the north of England, according to a letter seen by Energydesk.
On May 24, a top EDF executive wrote to Northumberland County Council to throw its weight behind an application for a huge new coal mine at Druridge Bay.
In the letter, head of generation liaison Scott Forbes says: “I am writing to ask that you recommend the Highthron surface mine proposal for approval.”
Coal, he explains, “will remain important as we transition to a lower carbon economy” and “indigenous coal provides a reliable and secure source.”
He also writes glowingly of Banks Mining, the company behind the application…
The letter was spotted on the council website earlier this week by FOE campaigner Guy Shrubsole, but it’s no longer available for some reason. (We’re finding out why)
You can read our copy of it in the meantime…
Let’s be clear: This mine isn’t an EDF project.
Banks Group, which runs the other opencast coal mines in England, both of which neighbour Northumberland, is the actual applicant…
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/06/15/edf-new-opencast-coal-mine/
40
Too True to be Funny…
[Scene: A domestic residence in a marginal electorate. JOHN rings the doorbell. It is answered by BRYAN.]
John: Good morning. I’m Bill Shorten. I’m here to buy your vote.
Bryan: What?
John: Bill Shorten. To buy your vote.
Bryan: You can’t do that!
John: Sure I can. You’re a voter?
Bryan: Yes.
John Then you’ve got a vote. And I’ve got this… [Reveals nondescript paper bag.] Call it a business transaction.
Bryan: Not interested.
John: Why not?
Bryan: Because it is a bribe. And I, like every voter, have a duty to vote for the overall betterment of our society.
John: Come again?
Bryan: The overall betterment of our society.
John: Thought I was hearing things. How about a deluxe set of steak knives? As recommended by Rudd and Gillard…
Bryan: No.
John: Hospitals? Do you want me to give you any more hospitals?
Bryan: You don’t have any. Hospitals are run by the state government.
John: We don’t? Then what are those guys in federal health doing?
Bryan: Tell me and we’ll both know.
John: Education? We got this exciting new educational initiative. [Consults notes.] Sodomy 101.
Bryan: No thanks. And education is also a state function.
John: But these guys in Canberra…
Bryan: Tell me and we’ll both know.
John: Then what would you like me to do for you?
Bryan: How about cleaning up corruption and violence in the workplace?
John: I’m sorry – unions are a state government matter. Anything else?
Bryan: Maybe crank up Bill’s “Save-O-Meter”?
John: Now that’s just being silly.
Bryan: No, it’s not. Who’s paying for all this?
John: For what?
Bryan: The money bags, the bribes, the pork-barrel promises. Who’s paying for it?
John: Treasury, of course.
Bryan: And where do they get their money from?
John: They’ve got lots of money.
Bryan: Used to. Until Kevin ’07. Now they’re broke and the credit card is making them broker. How do you plan to pay it back?
John: Not my problem – I’m not a fortune teller.
Bryan: Let me guess: [Adopts gypsy mode.] “Money is to be found with the wealthy. Those who work, those who achieve, those who save and those who spend wisely.”
John: [Excited.] Or all of the above! Like your thinking – gotta go! [Turs to go hurriedly.]
Bryan: No – stop! Wouldn’t you be simply punishing the very behaviours that are essential to our long term national prosperity?
John: Yep.
Bryan: And leave our children with a mountain of debt and a wasteful, dysfunctional society incapable of servicing, let alone repaying it?
John: Yep.
Bryan: And you would sell out our nation’s future just so that you and your cronies can enjoy a few passing years of narcissistic power and social destruction?
John: [Suspiciously.] Is there a catch?
Alternative Ending:
John: Then what do you want?
Bryan: A small, humble government. One that exists wholly and solely for the service of our society, one that recognises its limitations compared to the collective wisdom of the Australian people and seeks to impose no more restrictions on their ability to thrive and prosper than what is necessary for the overall benefit of society in the context of common law and common sense. A government which knows that the wealth of our nation is locked in the talents and energies of its people, and which seeks to help each individual to realise their full potential. And for those who have genuine need of assistance, the government will provide a safety net – but not a welfare web to ensnare present and future generations. A government that recognises the value of its historical institutions in shaping the social, legal and moral values as the pillars of society and a happy population for now and for the generations to come. That’s what I’d like.
John: And who do you think would vote for that?
Cheers,
Speedy
70
And who do you think would vote for that?
Me.
I’m voting below the line on the white paper. ALA first. Centre right candidates second, inc, Jim Molan LNP. No Turnbullites get numbered.
30
ditto. !! Jim Molan is the only Liberal that will get one of my 12 votes in the senate.
30
I’m with you, Konrad.
10
end of fossil fuels?
ignoring the spin –
16 Jun: Forbes: John Boyd: Japan’s renewed loved affair with coal
To create a stable energy supply and one less vulnerable to possible international turmoil, the government has reassessed its energy mix to include coal as a base source of energy. Consequently, power suppliers are currently building, planning or proposing to build 46 new coal-fired generation plants over the next several years…
From the government’s perspective, ensuring a secure, low-cost and stable source of energy is vital for national security and economic prosperity. Coal is not only cheap, it is the most abundant source of energy readily available, and its supply is less prone to disruption compared, say, to natural gas shipped in from the Middle East.
Anyone who lived through the Oil Shocks and the panic buying during the 1970s can attest to the importance of a stable energy supply…
In the meantime, the power industry is going full steam ahead with its building efforts, for it and the government both know all too well that it will take but one international upheaval resulting in a new energy shock to have angry citizens demanding why the country wasn’t better prepared.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jboyd/2016/06/16/theres-no-clean-coal-but-is-there-a-place-for-japans-cleaner-coal/#7267bd491f6b
16 Jun: Reuters: Japan doubles down on coal power as trading houses curb investment
By Aaron Sheldrick and Osamu Tsukimori
As most developed economies turn their back on coal, Japan is burning record amounts for electricity generation and plans to use even more of the dirtiest fossil fuel to fill the gap after the Fukushima disaster paralysed its nuclear sector…
Japan recently gave environmental approval to three more coal-fired power plants out of 45 planned, even after Tokyo agreed at last year’s U.N. climate conference to cut carbon emissions by 26 percent by 2030 from 2013 levels…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-coal-idUSKCN0Z22VR
60
Oh, laugh very loudly.
Here’s a quote from pat’s first link: (my bolding here)
Well, for starters, China and India already are using that technology. (USC)
The only ones who aren’t using it are us.
Tony.
160
Tony
FYI
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/albertas-carbon-tax-a-10-billion-green-grab
40
Another Ian,
note here with this situation in Alberta, and it’s no different here in (any place in) Australia, that all the emphasis is on making electrical efficiencies in the home, the residential sector.
Residential power consumption makes up barely 25% of consumption here in Oz (38% in the U.S.) and they fiddle at the edges of that to save a fraction of a percent, which basically, is all it really is.
Consumption in the other two areas Commercial and Industrial are larger consumers, and you only need look at (one of) the places where good accurate data is actually available for that the U.S. EIA which shows that the average Commercial consumer uses average residential multiplied by 7, and the average Industrial consumer uses residential multiplied by 108, and they are just averages, as some of the larger consumers in the Commerce sector (like your Coles or Wollies, both Commerce) would be up around residential multiplied by up to 200 Plus, and big Industry like BHP would be residential multiplied by thousands.
ANY electrical power efficiencies in those sectors would be so small as to be minute in the overall.
Piddlingly small changes (for those who actually do it in the first place) are so minute, that power consumption would barely even cough to notice.
Interestingly, from the links below, look at the Commercial table, and scroll down to the consumption data for South Atlantic. Look at the consumption for DC, Maryland and Virginia. (these last two States mentioned bordering on DC) Note how huge the consumption is for those three. That is ALL OF IT power consumption for the U.S. Federal Government. Note how THEY tell US that we need to make efficiencies in our homes. Pot meet kettle!!
Tony.
Source 1 – Residential
Source 2 – Commercial
Source 3 – Industrial
(all 2 page pdf documents)
50
TonyfromOz June 19, 2016 at 1:34 pm
“Another Ian,note here with this situation in Alberta, and it’s no different here in (any place in) Australia, that all the emphasis is on making electrical efficiencies in the home, the residential sector.”
Tony?
Could you give your estimate of Energy savings if a 14 foot diameter 1/4 mile long portland cement rotary kiln had 4 foot thick reasonable insulation surround? Is that waste of energy needed for the production of cement? I have been close to 4 of those in the US. Thank you!
00
Will
Shell losses on a rotary kin are probably about 10% of energy input (see link) but wrapping the kiln in rockwool is probably not a good idea. If we did that, then the heat would be trapped inside the rockwool INCLUDING THE STEEL SHELL – which would promptly get rather hot and turn the kiln into a 400 metre banana. And nobody likes that. If we were to install insulating refractory on the face between the working refractory and the shell, this would achieve energy savings but you wouldn’t want to make the insulating layer too thick or we’d lose kiln capacity.
The simple solutions are to preheat the feed, make sure feed is dry, minimise dust losses, control excess oxygen at the flame and at the kiln discharge, and use appropriate heat recovery systems on the offgas and the calcine discharge. That’s assuming the heat transfer “furniture” in the kiln itself is OK. (Lifters, dams, chains etc.)
Here’s a link by way of example: http://www.tappi.org/content/events/08kros/handouts/2-2.pdf
Cheers,
Speedy
10
Thanks Speedy!
I thought shell losses would be much higher. Your PDF was quite helpful.
10
This message doesn’t seem to have made it for the federal election
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/in-ontario-hard-work-doesnt-pay
20
Hey random red thumb guy – where are my 2 red thumbs?
Must be the weekend I guess, the staffers are having a weekend off……….
42
I think there’s a Troll Collective meeting being held under the bridge over muddled waters….
51
It can’t be anyone at the ABC.
No one works (attends) at the ABC on weekends.
21
Maybe they are all recovering from the Labor party campaign launch…?
Judging by the puff-piece on the ABC, I can only assume it was a night of comedy and farce, with Julia Gillard being called a “…trail-blazer for women and girls, a fierce warrior for education, and a continuing inspiration to everyone who fights for Labor…”, and Bill declaring that he is “…ready to serve, ready to lead, ready for government…”
51
I wonder how drunk the journos were…….?
21
Wacko – 2 red thumbs…excellent….
Thank you, RRTG….
Being a Sceptic is such hard work, all that solid science to consider.
While roasting mashmellows over my lovely wood powered open fire on the weekend, with my central heating in full blast to enjoy the fruits of my hard work and celebrating the human achievments that stop life being short, brutish and harsh, I thought of the RRTG driving a prius and agonizing which latte was lower energy impact while freezing in his wind powered electrically heated flat in the Up-The-Workers ( pass the champers ) trendy new residential block….
Enjoy!
20
only just came across the following – can’t recall anyone posting it:
VIDEO: 10 Jun: Corbett Report: Judith Curry on The Republic of Science
https://www.corbettreport.com/interview-1177-judith-curry-on-the-republic-of-science/
book discussed below is mentioned in the above chat. i posted one of the Charles Koch WaPo pieces in another thread during the week:
9 Jun: JudithCurryBlog: Science on the verge
Most interestingly, two WaPo articles feature an interview with Charles Koch, who has been heavily influenced by Polanyi’s Republic of Science…
When James Corbett asked what can we do to address these problems, I mentioned a new book Science on the Verge, which provides the motivation for this post.
Science on the Verge
The Rightful Place of Science: Science on the Verge is a collected volume with essays by the following individuals: Alice Benessia, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Angela Guimaraes Pereira, Jerome Ravetz, Andrea Salelli, Roger Strand, and Jeroen van der Sluijs, Dan Sarewitz.
The book can be purchased at amazon.com (price for kindle is $4.99).
Andrea Saltelli has provided a good website for the book:
About the authors…ETC
https://judithcurry.com/2016/06/09/science-on-the-verge/
20
19 Jun: SMH: Warragamba Dam set to spill on Monday as heavy rain falls on Sydney
by Ashleigh Tullis and Emma Partridge
Water levels at the south-west Sydney dam have remained at 98 per cent despite parts of the city receiving up to 20mm of rainfall on Sunday afternoon…
A WaterNSW spokesperson said the catchment had been saturated and heavy falls on Sunday were expected to cause run off at the dam.
“The heaviest rain fall will be this evening and we anticipate the dam will overflow on Monday,” he said.
“We are working with the Bureau of Meteorology and the SES to monitor the rainfall.”…
A NSW State Emergency Service spokesperson said the Bureau of Meteorology anticipated 50 to 70 millimetres of rain would fall over Warragamba Dam on Sunday night.
She said minor flooding could occur around North Richmond but those areas potentially affected were mainly rural farmland…READ ON
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/warragamba-dam-set-to-spill-on-monday-as-heavy-rain-falls-on-sydney-20160619-gpmomm.html
19 Jun: Hobart Mercury: Helen Kempton: Inquiry to examine energy security policy in the wake of state’s recent ernergy crisis
THE Government’s energy security policy will come under the microscope tomorrow as Tasmania’s three state-owned energy businesses front a parliamentary inquiry into a power crisis that has cost $60 million in diesel generation alone.
Hydro Tasmania, TasNetworks and Aurora Energy have been called to give evidence at the first hearing of the Public Accounts Committee in Hobart…
http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/inquiry-to-examine-energy-security-policy-in-the-wake-of-states-recent-ernergy-crisis/news-story/fb2b1778daae34b98ef410de72302f39
30
Apparently, Hydro Tasmania and BassLink have been disputing the cable operation as far back as 2006.
And as mentioned in the past, there seems to have been damage during The Carbon Tax due to the sustained high exporting that took place as Hydro Tasmania cashed in on the opportunity.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-19/hydro-tasmania-and-basslink's-strained-and-hostile-partnership/7523836
10
Still many unanswered questions, and nobody talking! Why is that?
What actually caused the break down of the basslink cable? How has it been fixed. Is it working now and does the cable meet specifations now? How do extreme weather conditions affect the cable?
00
Refer http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/
June 13 TASMANIAN POWER EXPORTS VIA BASSLINK IN DEC 2015 WERE TRIGGERED BY VICTORIAN PRICE SIGNALS
Might throw some light.
00
18 Jun: SciDev.net: Fiona Broom: Local pollutants blamed for Himalayan climate change
[KATHMANDU] Climate change may be global, but the future of Himalayan mountain glaciers and the Tibetan plateau snowpack could come down to local air pollution, scientists say…
Adjusted regional climate projections that recognise the impact of black carbon warming effects are crucial to local adaptation planning, Yangyang Xu, post-doctoral fellow at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, tells SciDev.Net.
Xu and his colleagues led a study on the effect of black carbon aerosols on high-altitude warming and snow cover retreat over Tibet and the Himalayas, published March in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics…
“Our results suggested that in order to save mountain glaciers in this region, strengthened controls of local pollution sources are greatly needed,” Xu said. “One cannot simply blame global warming.”…
https://www.scidev.net/south-asia/climate-change/news/local-pollutants-blamed-for-himalayan-climate-change.html
20
Jo
I might be testing your blog limits here but Chiefio is talking sense in both
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/06/14/orlando-ideologies-guns-weapons/
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/what-california-teaches-about-assault-weapon-bans-they-fail/
From one who has been around firearms for a long time – even the “dreaded semi-automatics”.
31
Poor old Adolf had similar problems.
If people had not invented those gas ovens, none of those atrocities would have happened.
For those of you who may find this comment a bit sick, please try to fault the logic.
It just shows how blind we have become as a “modern civilization”.
30
He speaks much common sense…..but not just from an american point of view, but a general point of view and knowing history.
10
Law Dome ice core revelation – long droughts normal and natural over past thousand years.
‘Dr Tessa Vance from the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre said the study, just published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, could help improve catchment management strategies in drought-affected areas of Queensland and New South Wales.
“Up until now we had no clear way of knowing whether the prolonged drought Australia experienced recently was a historical anomaly,” said Dr. Vance.
“The study shows that the Millennium Drought was far from an exceptional event for eastern Australia during the past thousand years.”
“Droughts lasting longer than five years are in fact a normal part of long-term climate variability, and should therefore be factored into catchment management.”
90
Looks like someone may face an uphill battle trying to get funding from now on…
40
Here are some vids you may be interested in:
Cordyceps fungi. https://youtu.be/r4TeOa4liDs
Toxoplasma and how it alters human behaviour. https://youtu.be/8yKJPKzplEE
Toxoplasmosis and schizophrenia. https://youtu.be/vKm1Pm9LfUY
How to auction chant, US style. https://youtu.be/SvfrR0ZU-L4
US Auction chant. https://youtu.be/8Ng4oqBSSjg
30
David Maddison:
Are you implying that the Greens are the victim of mind control by a pathogenic fungus?
I would have thought that they are a parasitic growth.
30
Jo, Bolta just posted this about Christian Democrat Mark Imisides, WA Senate candidate.
Here’s the relevant bit from Imisides:
With a Ph.D. in chemistry, and many years experience in both the academic and private sectors, the major thrust of my campaign will be countering the green fog that has descended upon our nation and is stifling the productivity of both our primary producers and the resources sector. My impramatur for doing this is twofold: firstly, I will not stand idly by and watch what ought to be the unadulterated pursuit of objective truth – science – be perverted for political ends. Secondly, as a scientist I am in a position to call to account those for whom the pursuit of science is simply a veneer. In short I have the scientific clout to expose them.
The most well-known example of this, of course is the unproven theory of so-called anthropogenic global warming (AGW) – “climate change” to the punter in the street. Stated plainly there are three things that need to be proven before we should spend a cent upon reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, it needs to be proven that carbon dioxide has a significant effect upon global warming. Secondly, it needs to be proven that this warming is a bad thing, and thirdly, it must be proven that we can actually do anything about it.
111
I would add a fourth thing that must be proven–(4) if we can do “something” about “it,” is doing that “something” harmful or beneficial? Take cancer for example. Cancer has a significant effect on the human body (item 1). Cancer is bad for the body (item 2). And we can do something about it–i.e., we can eliminate the cancer by killing the patient (item 3). Maybe it’s just me, but somehow I believe the patient might object to that particular problem solution.
40
Tony from Oz
Check the graph!
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2016/06/we-dont-need-no-580.html
00
Thanks Another Ian.
Graphs like this are always good to look at, because they always point out something nearly everyone overlooks.
This graph is for ….. ENERGY, and energy and electrical power generation, (as related as they sound) are two different things.
The renewable crowd always like to point to electrical power generation because the percentage of inroads they seem to be making is always higher, around 4 to 5% almost, still piddlingly tiny really.
However, when it comes to energy, that also includes the Natural gas used for everything else other than gas fired power generation, and also includes the oil used for every vehicle on land, rail, water and in the air.
When it comes to overall energy, renewables percentage is down around 1.5 to 2%.
When people are hounded with calls to reduce emissions of GHG’s they think that only applies to power generation, say replace a couple of coal fired power plants with wind plants, and that’ll do. Try telling them that any percentage reduction in CO2 emissions also applies to the same percentage of vehicles removed from land, rail, sea, and air, and they look at you like you’re crazy.
When it comes to electrical power generation, people still think it will be a one for one plant replacement, like here in Queensland, replacing (say) Stanwell power plant (1440MW) with a 60MW Solar PV plant, or in South Australia, constructing one solar plant (CSP)of 110MW to replace an 800MW coal fired power plant.
You can’t explain engineering or maths to these people. They don’t want to know.
Tell them that they’re coming for your cars and all of a sudden, the doubts appear.
Energy versus Electrical power Generation. Two different things.
And they always like to inflate the renewable total by including Hydro. If it wasn’t for the absolutely humungous Hydro in China, and soon India as well, then you’d need a magnifying glass to improve the renewable percentage.
Tony.
41
They would achieve a FAR greater CO2 emission reduction just by upgrading all the big coal fired power stations to the newest coal technologies.
40
The warmists believe we can reduce global CO2 emission levels but the realists know they rise even if we stopped or disappeared altogether.
Ignore the lemmings, build those new USC stations now and save the lives of the silent majority!
20
So you are in favour of CO2 emission reduction?
10
Not at all, saving lives in relation to providing a reliable proven base load electrical supply so people don’t freeze to death, starve from food perishing via no refrigeration and all the major benefits that 24/7 lighting/power gifted to developed nations and enabled faster human innovation.
Why would anyone want to starve plant life on this planet?
11
RenewEconomy puzzled by their own findings!
We I guess we shouldn’t expect those blinded by ideology to be able to see what is plainly apparent to anyone with a remotely dispassionate viewpoint.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/whats-happening-south-australia-zero-coal-19005
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/know-nem-week-ended-may-30-2016-2-19906
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/know-your-nem-week-ended-may-30-2016
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/david-leitch-principal-itk-formerly-utility-analyst-leading-investment-banks-past-30-years-views-expressed-please-note-new-section-energy-markets-54788
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/battle-royale-brews-over-battery-storage-and-control-of-energy-markets-98989
The increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generators just couldn’t have anything to do with the increase in electricity spot prices, could it? Particularly when the wind was averaging high capacity factors, making any lulls even more difficult for dispatchable generators to cope with.
C’mon Giles – clear this up for us..
20
a must-read. just wow!
19 Jun: UK Telegraph: Emily Gosden: National Grid recruits NHS hospitals to help keep the lights on
National Grid is recruiting cash-strapped NHS hospitals to fire up their emergency generators and turn down their air conditioning systems when power supplies are scarce…
Several hospitals are already taking part in the embryonic demand side response industry and National Grid has just held talks with the Crown Commercial Service, which helps manage energy procurement for the NHS, to sign up more…
***Ms O’Hara (Cordi O’Hara, head of the UK system operator at National Grid) argues that demand reduction represents a cheaper way of meeting peak power demand and keeping the lights on as Britain builds more wind and solar farms which generate power intermittently rather than simply constructing lots of extra power plants that will rarely be used.
“We are in a period of significant change for the energy industry as we decarbonise the energy system. New cost-effective ways of balancing the system will need to be developed,” she said.
“Just continuing to build out generation to meet that peak demand may not be the best use of consumer money.”…
“Hospitals are very resilient sites,” said Paul Lowbridge, manager of National Grid’s “power responsive” programme to encourage demand side response.
As well using back-up generators, he said NHS managers were interested in adjusting their high voltage air conditioning (HVAC) systems to reduce their demand.
“There are opportunities for them to not turn it off, but reduce it ever so slightly at certain times of the day,” he said, insisting this could be done without affecting patient care…READ ALL
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/19/national-grid-recruits-nhs-hospitals-to-help-keep-the-lights-on/
19 Jun: (CALIFORNIA) PressEnterprise: WEATHER: With record heat straining grid, flex alert asks us to conserve power
By ALI TADAYON and JEFF HORSEMAN
The Flex Alert – which will be in effect from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday, June 20 – asks Southern California residents to turn off unneeded lights, set air-conditioners to 78 degrees or higher and not use major appliances until after 9 p.m. Other requests include limiting the opening and closing of refrigerator doors and shifting power-intensive processes by businesses to the early-morning or late-evening hours…
“It’s the demand for the electricity as a result of the heat,” Brown said. “So Southern California Edison asks customers to conserve during these peak times.”…
http://www.pe.com/articles/alert-806225-flex-power.html
Reuters had a couple of paras:
20 Jun: Reuters: California power grid urges energy conservation on Monday due to heat wave
The California Independent System Operator, or ISO, which operates the state’s power grid, issued a Flex Alert for Monday for Southern California from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. PDT because of high temperatures expected in the region.
The ISO urged consumers to conserve electricity especially during the late afternoon when air conditioners typically are at peak use and warned that natural gas, used as fuel for many power generators in the Los Angeles area, may be tight because of limited operations at the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility.
20
Re California looming blackouts
The Aliso Canyon gas storage facility being offline “could trigger up to two weeks of electrical blackouts this summer”
According to the Save Porter Ranch organization
http://www.wsj.com/articles/southern-california-may-see-summer-blackouts-as-gas-leaks-effects-linger-1466368338
I wonder what they’ll say after a few days without modern amenities like lights, air-conditioning, refrigeration, gas stations, supermarkets….
The way I see it, SoCal will need to get LA to pull the plug on residential PV systems so that the duck curve flattens out to a manageable afternoon ramp rate. That way, at least they can schedule increased gas flows through the pipelines that MIGHT be able to deal with the lack of instant gas supply.
Too bad they decided not to repair the steam generators at the San Onfre nuclear plant. That 2.1 GW of lost capacity could have been rather handy…
20
The missing information here is ‘why’
For that a good news aggregator is required. Like ZeroHedge.
From zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-21/blackouts-loom-california-power-grid-emergency-all-customers-should-expect-14-days-w
“The power grid is under direct threat as a result of the unprecedented, but little reported, massive natural gas leaks at Alisco Canyon that was ongoing for four months as an intense summer heat wave sets in.”
and this
“The large-scale natural gas disaster – which curiously escaped media frenzy and widespread environmental concern – has resulted in the shutdown of key storage facilities that supply most of the power for the southern portion of the state.”
CLEARLY, the electricity supplier is borrowed to the hilt and cannot secure more borrowed money to keep its house in order..
If this were a nuke operator, like TEPCO in Japan……the money it could borrow or steal from the public credit line would be endless.
Even if i am wrong, why is it that propaganda is always crafted so it deflects attention away from the workings of debt slavery.
Look around, and tell me if you know of any countries/corporations/big companies that are not in debt to banks.
00
Back in 1972 I attempted to write a book about advancing democracy in a way completely different to the Westminster system using IT available at the time.
I just now became aware that there is actually a political party that advocates the same idea.
It’s worth a look and some consideration.
There MUST be a better way of self government.
10
Interesting Rod, I’m going through all the Vic senate tickets ATM, was going to just do 12 below the line but didn’t want to exhaust my vote on the minor parties, as much as I’d love to give the 2 finger salute to the major traitors I’ll now number all boxes to make my vote count and cut out any dodgy deals, looking at the choices though what a poo fight!
40
Just updating, thought I had my HOR (green paper) sorted but heard the independent I had above the majors on local radio supporting ‘renewables’ and wind farms and get this he’s running with a mental health platform!
Be sure to do your homework children, this dickhead is getting placed down with the greens.
00
16 Jun: LA Times: Tony Barbozo: L.A. power plants may burn dirty diesel fuel to avoid summer blackouts
Air quality regulators will allow the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power to violate pollution rules this summer by burning diesel fuel at three of its power plants, if doing so is the only way to prevent blackouts.
In a 3-1 vote late Wednesday, the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s hearing board granted the public utility a 90-day exemption from emissions limits and other permit requirements at its power plants in Long Beach, Wilmington and Sun Valley.
The utility petitioned to use diesel fuel as a “last resort” at three of its four plants to prevent intermittent blackouts if natural gas deliveries are curtailed because of the troubled Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility…
In addition to holding public meetings to address concerns in communities near the plants, the utility must pay between $1.5 million and $2.9 million in fees to install air filters and purchase electric buses for nearby schools.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-power-plants-diesel-20160616-snap-story.html
20 Jun: ABC: Rosemary Bolger: Energy inquiry: Hydro Tasmania puts total cost of power crisis at $180m
The total cost of the energy crisis, which forced Tasmania to rely on diesel generators to keep the lights on, will be up to $180 million, Hydro Tasmania has told a parliamentary inquiry…
Hydro chairman Grant Every-Burns told the Public Accounts Committee the estimated net cost of responding to the crisis, including shipping in more than 100 diesel generators, would be between $140 million and $180 million.
The estimate takes into account foregone generation and lost electricity sales, as well as the saving from not paying Basslink fees while it was out of action.
Most of the cost will be felt this financial year, resulting in a $90 million loss…
TasNetwork’s chairman Dan Norton said it would consider using battery technology to improve the state’s energy security, but it had no plans to invest yet because of expense.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-20/hydro-tasmania-to-post-big-loss-because-of-power-crisis/7525034
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Pat, is there ANY possibility of you threading your posts with replies rather than just generating new comment streams?
Anyway, back to California and the Aliso Canyon situation – from another article about the use of diesel to fuel the Haynes Generating Station in Long Beach, Harbor Generating Station in Wilmington and Valley Generating Station in Sun Valley.
http://www.dailynews.com/general-news/20160616/heat-wave-could-bring-more-diesel-pollution-from-socal-power-plants
I’m guessing the steam boilers at Haynes and Harbor and the CCGT at Valley will use diesel while the OCGT peakers at Haynes will keep using gas.
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Thanks PAt, I’m going to cover this… It’s up – Jo
not sure who wrote this, or if it is an editorial:
19 Jun: WSJ: Two Can Play at Climate ‘Fraud’
If Exxon can be sued, why can’t Al Gore for exaggerations that help his investments?
If climate change turns out to be less serious than advertised, then “‘clean energy’ companies may become less valuable and some may be altogether worthless,” the letter adds.
Think SolarCity, or investments made by the venture-capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers where Al Gore is a senior partner. Mr. Gore showed up at Mr. Schneiderman’s March 29 press conference for AGs United for Clean Power and blamed climate change for the spread of the Zika virus, flooding in the Midwest and Hurricane Sandy. “Every night on the news now it’s like a nature hike through the Book of Revelation,” Mr. Gore said. These unproven claims arguably mislead investors about the value of clean-energy companies…ETC
http://www.wsj.com/articles/two-can-play-at-climate-fraud-1466373891
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Subtropical Ridge caught misbehaving, at this time of year its normally centered over Broken Hill.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
It has to be a regional cooling signal, but is it intensifying or weakening?
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‘Here we show that the STR is projected to strengthen and move pole ward under global warming, contributing to reduced rainfall in the cool season in south-east Australia. This result is largely consistent among 35 models examined …’
Grose et al 2015
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It’s a bit off topic, and definitely a few days past the weekend, but perhaps the lateness will cancel out the OT or excuse my issue with some headlines of late…
Baby planets, newborn planets, anthromorphization (spelling??) of PLANETS for blahblah sake.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rare-newborn-planet-may-be-the-youngest-ever-detected/
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/0621/What-can-these-baby-alien-planets-teach-us-about-planetary-formation
Ok, rant off.
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