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Weekend Unthreaded
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JoNova A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX
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Post by Ron Clutz @ Science Matters. Happer versus Karoly.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2019/03/02/a-critical-framework-for-climate-change/
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Thanks for that, Beth. An interesting link.
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https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/bhp-stakes-us6-million-in-clean-energy-company/
http://carbonengineering.com/about-dac/
Sucks CO2 out of air to make Jet A.
Needs Canadian carbon tax of US$100-150 to be viable.
Financed via Breakthrough Energy and its club of billionairs and approved one world guv world corporates. (George Soros is a member)
What has the Canadian PM done to Canada? He has sold his country down the river for pieces of silver.
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I hereby predict the average temperature
will be +0.1 degrees C. higher in ten years,
or maybe +0.2 degrees C., unless it goes
-0.1 degrees C. lower, or maybe
-0.2 degrees C. lower.
This climate change will end life on this
planet as we currently know it,
meaning that people will stop
listening to fools predicting a coming
global warming catastrophe !
I hope.
The scaremongers have been predicting a catastrophe
since the 1960s, yet many people still listen
to the annual predictions of doom.
Unfortunately, it is possible that predictions
of a coming global cooling catastrophe
will replace the “global warming catastrophe”.
Leftists need a catastrophe as an excuse
to ramp up government power and
tell everyone how to live.
A fake catastrophe that’s “coming”,
but never shows up, is just as good as
a real catastrophe for them — maybe better —
because there’s nothing messy to clean up afterwards,
… and at any time you can declare that the
catastrophe has been prevented … because it was
never real in the first place.
Being a leftists is complicated, but little thinking
is required when you “know”
that any problem can be solved
by the goobermint !
Some interesting climate science post here:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
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Amen! I think, anyway. 🙂
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Richard
Scaremongering since the 1960’s? I can do much better than that. This from an article I wrote some years ago
‘Saint Cyrian was Bishop of Carthage around 250AD.* (see Note 1) He was talking about the huge increase in Rome’s population which had caused wars against Carthage and the building of 500 towns in North Africa to satisfy the eternal city’s ever increasing needs for timber, cereal, and exotic animals for its gladiatorial contests. Here is an account of lack of sustainability and climate change caused by a variety of factors, with the hints of a decline in the warm climate that had sustained Rome now starting to work against them as it intermittently turned cooler
‘The world has grown old and does not remain in its former vigour. It bears witness to its own decline. The rainfall and the suns warmth are both diminishing. The metals are nearly exhausted the husbandman is failing in his fields. Springs which once gushed forth liberally now barely give a trickle of water.’
Around 1560 the Rev Schaller, pastor of Strendal in the Prussian Alps wrote;
“There is no real constant sunshine neither a steady winter nor summer, the earth’s crops and produce do not ripen, are no longer as healthy as they were in bygone years. The fruitfulness of all creatures and of the world as a whole is receding, fields and grounds have tired from bearing fruits and even become impoverished, thereby giving rise to the increase of prices and famine, as is heard in towns and villages from the whining and lamenting among the farmers.”
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The planet celebrates!
The gene pool of human stupidity has just announced it will be greatly reduced ….
Youth climate strikers: ‘We are going to change the fate of humanity’
Students issue an open letter ahead of global day of action on 15 March, when young people are expected to strike across 50 nations
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/01/youth-climate-strikers-we-are-going-to-change-the-fate-of-humanity
>>> None of these Green New Deal children will be having children …
Nation Breathes Sigh Of Relief As Ocasio-Cortez Comes Out Against Having Children
https://babylonbee.com/news/nation-breathes-sigh-of-relief-as-ocasio-cortez-comes-out-against-having-children
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Publisher rejects Craig Kelly complaint school textbook ‘inaccurate’ on climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/26/publisher-rejects-craig-kelly-complaint-school-textbook-inaccurate-on-climate-change?CMP=share_btn_tw
“Kelly has written to the NSW education minister, Rob Stokes, saying the book’s description of Tony Abbott as a climate change denier was “an offensive slur equating it with Holocaust deniers”, the Daily Telegraph reported.
The book says: “Climate change is noticeable in Australia, with more extreme frequent weather events such as the 2002-06 drought or the 2010-11 Queensland floods.”
“That is simply an inaccurate statement that is in a school history book,” Kelly told parliament’s federation chamber last week.”
fact check abc
Is the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu growing, and not sinking, as Craig Kelly says?
The verdict
Mr Kelly’s claim checks out.
The expert behind this research told Fact Check the nation’s islands were continually adjusting, and that the new land was habitable.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-19/fact-check-is-the-island-nation-tuvalu-growing/10627318
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Oodles of Darwin Awards in the offing. 🙂
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And so it came to pass, when the young people from fifty nations went on strike, nothing changed.
Society continued, industry kept pumping out iron ore, steel, iPhones, computers and cars.
The only difference was that school teachers got an early mark.
Way to go, kids.
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Unfortunately too many do pay attention to what these kids, still wet behind the ears, say and do. At the current level you’re no doubt right, nothing will happen. But as time goes by it may be another matter.
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Don’t blame their teachers.sarc.
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and then https://balance10.blogspot.com/2019/02/re-education-courtesy-chinese.html
30
Little snippet from the LA Times. First time for 132 years they havent reached 70F during the day in February.
Looking forward to the Peter Hannam’s in depth analysis in 9Fax.
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‘According to the Los Angeles Almanac, the record low in downtown L.A. was set on this day in 1911 — a brisk 25 degrees. Tuesday was a bit warmer, though still downright chilly, with a low of 41 degrees.’
LA Times
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In a past post on this site, I was called out.
I was accused of “dropping the ball” on a statement I made.
I defended my position, but in retrospect the accusation was correct.
The gist was, I said a free society would work because most people are good.
The reply was that I had dropped the ball on that very assertion.
I defended it by saying, In my experience most people I interact with are good…
Which is quite true.
But the problem lies with most people I interact with are not the leaders, politicians, corparate CEO’s of our world.
Sheltered and naive is my direct experience, because I have mostly delt with normal people.
It very well may be that leaders(elitist) and most politicians of our world, are Psychopathic, or at the very lest sociopaths. Because of their nature, they gravitate to these positions.
As birds of a feather, they group together, creating secret societies, think groups, etc. Their total disrgard to humanity, has been behind(engineered) every demise of our progression forward for many centuries.
It is probably the greatest socio-gulf in humanity, and they are running the show.
Hence the predicament we are in now.
A psychopath is not readily identified, they are masters of deception.
Robert D. Hare, C.M. is a researcher in the field of criminal psychology, developed the Hare Psychopathy Checklist, used to assess cases of psychopathy.
We may need a constitution that requires, for any politician or bureaucrat that will hold a public office, to be tested for any tendencies of sociopath traits.
That a Representative, Senator, or member of the judiciary is responsible to the people that put them in power and are not to pander to or associate with any external group, such as the “Council of foreign relations”, the “Trilateral Commission”, the “Bilderberg Group”, the “UN”, etc.
This Corbett Report, Our Leaders Are Psychopaths, gives a very good expo-say of this problem, well worth a look.
Interestingly at the end, they display various political leaders and dictators, with a John Lennon voice over saying “we are run by insane people….”, the second last image is an Australian Politician, Guess who! (If you watched it don’t give it away).
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Japanese winters show a downward trend.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Winter-temperature-1987-2019.png
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Another Dog Bites the Dust. Carnegie Clean Energy suspended from ASX
This is getting monotonous.
Last Thursday I posted a few sentences regarding the failure of Sundrop in South Australia:
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/02/midweek-unthreaded-62/#comment-2111935
Yesterday we see that yet another green subsidy-sucker has hit turbulence with its failure to submit its half-year financial report to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
Carnegie Clean Energy. https://www.carnegiece.com/
In this case Carnegie Energy, which is reportedly a cash-strapped company, received Western Australian government funding, despite not meeting targets, for a wave power project proposed for Albany in WA.
The company posted a $63.34 million net loss for 2017-18, revealing it paid $2.12 million in wages and fees to its executive team and consultants during the period.
Them’s our boys:
https://www.carnegiece.com/about/board-of-directors/
According to its website Carnegie Clean Energy is “committed to making Carnegie a highly satisfying long-term investment for shareholders. We are guided by our core values of innovation, resilience and collaboration to create first in kind technology and deliver large-scale renewable energy projects to maximise return”.
Yep.
And we sceptics are guided by our core values too. If it looks like a duck, waddles like a duck but barks like a dog, it’s probably a dog.
https://finance.nine.com.au/2019/03/01/17/19/carnegie-clean-energy-wa-wave-power-company-suspended
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On another tangent entirely, does anyone here use Tinderbox for gathering and analysing notes?
I’ve made use of this program for collating notes, but so far have failed to take it to a higher level.
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❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
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❶①❶① . . . Why is Climate Science different? . . .
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❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
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[ this is a duplicate of a post from another thread, repeated here because it is important ]
Climate science is probably the only branch of science, that doesn’t look at absolute measurements.
Climate science looks mostly at temperature anomalies.
To calculate temperature anomalies, you need to use absolute temperatures.
But Climate science then ignores the absolute temperatures, and concentrates on the temperature anomalies.
Why?
====================
I have actual absolute temperature data, for 216 countries. For each country, I have:
1) the temperature of the average coldest month (winter)
2) the temperature of the average month
3) the temperature of the average hottest month (summer)
For this article, I have sorted the data by the temperature of the average month.
====================
There are 2 other important absolute temperatures, that you should know about:
1) the average temperature of the land (averaged by area, for 216 countries), is 15.6 degrees Celsius (this is the red line on the graph)
2) the average temperature that humans live at (averaged over the total population of the Earth), is 19.7 degrees Celsius (this is the blue line on the graph)
Humans love the temperature to be warmer than the average land temperature. They choose to live in warmer places.
There is plenty of cooler land around. Humans don’t want to live on the cooler land.
But global warming will make the cooler land, warmer. It might become desirable.
Countries with a lot of “cool” land, like Russia and Canada, will probably become the next world superpowers.
I suggest that you learn to speak Russian, or Canadian.
https://agree-to-disagree.com/why-is-climate-science-different
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❶①❶① . . . One sandwich short of a picnic . . .
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❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶①❶
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[ this is a duplicate of a post from another thread, repeated here because it is important ]
Since 1980, scientists have been using satellites to monitor the number of sandwiches in the Arctic region.
Why do scientists monitor the number of sandwiches in the Arctic region, you might ask? The answer is quite simple. What do you think polar bears eat, when they can’t hunt seals, because there is no sea ice.
The number of sandwiches grows and decays with the seasons. There are more sandwiches in winter/spring (while the polar bears are eating seals). And there are fewer sandwiches in summer/fall (when seals are not available).
But scientists are concerned, because over the decades, the number of sandwiches is following a decreasing trend.
The number of sandwiches is obviously getting smaller. Not every year, of course. It does so in fits and starts. But the long term pattern (the trend), is clear. Deny it, and you are a sandwich denier.
A bitter argument has broken out, between the 2 scientists who have been monitoring sandwich numbers.
Dr Anne Alarmist, insists that sandwich numbers are falling rapidly, and may fall to zero within 10 to 20 years.
But her rival, Dr A Skeptic, claims that Dr Anne Alarmist is talking “poppycock”. Dr A Skeptic agrees that there is a decreasing trend, but claims that sandwiches will continue to be available, for at least 100 to 200 years.
Each scientist has plotted a graph of sandwich numbers from 1980 to 2018.
https://agree-to-disagree.com/one-sandwich-short-of-a-picnic
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Balance.
Is always a delicate thing.
KK
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I doubt that climate science ever intended to be honest enough to be legitimately called a science. When you make your own rules and are not held accountable to the rest of the science world you should be called…well, anything from wishful thinking to voodoo.
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In The Australian, and behind a paywall, Alan Kohler is saying that the LNP now has a 50% renewables target, just like Labor. Since neither party has any concrete policy outlining how this is to be achieved, is it believable?
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Peter Fitzroy:
Of course it is believable that there is such a policy. Will it work? NO.
I have read a bit recently about Homo naledi – a surprisingly recent (last 240,000 years). This primitive creature lived underground, had a small brain, no evidence (yet) of ability with fire or making tools, but had large grasping hands. It led me to rethink the theory that all humans have a common ancestry.
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The out of Africa theory, in my opinion, does not explain the rapid spread of Homo Sapiens throughout Asia, and into Australia. According to the timelines, those early peoples must have been moving at a healthy clip for thousands of years. And then there is are 7, 10 or 14 Eves identified by Mitochondrial DNA, which point to a hybridisation process, which included Neanderthals, among others, contributing to our modern DNA. Gee Aye would be the goto on that
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We agree.
There were at least 8 different races of humans around in the last 300,000 years. H. erectus moved out of Africa around a million years ago and spread widely. Supposedly the predecessor of H. heidelbergensis which was? the predecessor of H. neanderthalensis NOTE both of them supposedly european. Now it appears that there were 2 types of Neanderthals and they may well have originated in the East.
H. erectus is considered the very likely ancestor of the Hobbit H. floresensis, as they are thought to have been on Flores from at least 400,000 years ago (to maybe 47,000 years ago). That meant that H. erectus could cross 40 kilometres of deep sea.
Then there is the problem of the Denisovans (pending its taxonomic status, it currently carries temporary species or subspecies names Homo denisova, Homo altaiensis, Homo sapiens denisova, or Homo sapiens Altai). Their genes shows up in Tibetans, australian aboriginals, Melaneseians (especially) and it appears there is evidence of them (or relatives) being in South America 135-100 thousand years ago. ( certain tribes in the Amazon area carry higher levels of said genes)**. So much for the Clovis man theory!
** probably not the one that helps Tibetans cope with low atmospheric pressure.
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Before homo sapiens walked out of Africa, around 74,000 years ago, there were earlier prototypes like homo erectus and Neanderthal who had been around for at least 200,000 years.
The humans making their escape were primarily beachcombers and reached Australia by 65,000 BC.
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So you see my point – 10 thousand years is awfully quick.
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On further reading, 74,000 years ago Toba exploded (the biggest volcanic eruption in 2 million years) and they have found pebble tools in India buried under a metre of ash.
So its being speculated that humans had already reached Australia by then and missed the carnage, but we still need a date for the crossing of the Timor Sea. They must have seen bushfires in the south and were aware that there must be land beyond the horizon. This suggests they have a raft.
They are confident that the first Australians were in Kakadu 65,000 years ago. Imagine the number of saltwater crocodiles across the Top End, which encouraged them to trek south and hunt roos.
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The first Australians could have emerged from Africa 81,000 years BP, when sea level was 20 metres lower than today. Also it now appears that they may been island hopping, reached New Guinea and then walked to Tasmania.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/31/first-humans-to-reach-australia-likely-island-hopped-to-new-guinea-then-walked-study
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Around 85,000 years BP, sea level dropped 80 metres below today and the Red Sea was closed at its southern end, known as the Gate of Grief.
The reason they decided to move is that their food supply was dwindling as the Red Sea became more saline. So the journey began and took 20,000 years to complete.
If you’re interested, there is a lot of Denisovans DNA in New Guinea and Cape York.
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There have been more recent arrivals than that.
Is Mungo Man related to the current Indigenous group?
One thing’s for sure, migration from the North slowed considerably about 20,000 years ago.
KK
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all mt genomes coalesce into one by definition so there is a single even not several
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Eve
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Adam and Eve were South African.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/our-closest-ape-like-ancestor-is-reshuffling-thinking-about-human-evolution-22174964/
There has been a lot of ‘genetic drift’ over time.
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That’s what I originally understood, and that one was in Africa. But like all things there is dispute, with the biggest problem being that that subgroup only leaves Africa around 65 thousand years ago, while most of east asia already was populated. But as is normal, this may well be an erroneous view.
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Homo erectus developed a big brain and cleared out of Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_human_migrations
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Neanderthal had a huge brain in comparison with us and cromagnon man but was physically set up to handle cold weather. When the ice eventually drove him South he was like a fish out of water.
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What definition? Can you expand on that?
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had this all ready to go a day ago during the great hiatus, hopefully someone will read it…
All human mitochondrial genomes share a single common ancestor ie the lineages coalesce to a single genome- think of a family tree. It is an outcome of the genetics where there is mutation over time and no recombination; there is no dispute over this as it is simply an outcome of the system. Dispute occurs about the estimation of the date of the common ancestor (measured by estimating mutation rate over time) and the meaning of that date.
The time of coalescence is affect by all sorts of population and demographic factors. Imagine if a Neanderthal mtDNA had survived the hybridisation events and was found in a modern human today. The coalescent point of humans would be pushed back several hundred thousand years to around the time of the common ancestor of neanderthals and modern humans.
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You can prove that assertion by reading the ‘TonyfromOz’ comments on this blog.
It won’t work, we are headed for a disaster unlike any we have seen in the last two hundred years.
Victoria and South Australia are starting early. Industry is already being shut down on ‘hot’ days; less important suburbs, ie not Premier Daniel Andrews’ suburb, are blacked out so that the inner city elites can keep their power on.
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The only way that renewables MIGHT work is with large amounts of storage, very large amounts.
As Snowy2 won’t be ready before 2024 (at the earliest) our rush into renewables MUST result in blackouts.
The claim that batteries will be improved and become cheap has been around as long as the AGW scare, and is even less likely.
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I more in the camp that this particular promise will be jettisoned by whoever gets power. At least that is the premise I am operating with.
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Tasmania has (slightly) less hydro capacity than either NSW or Victoria, so they aren’t going to save them, new cable or not.
Qld. has much less and SA a miniscule amount (about as much as a single diesel generator could supply).
If wind power is really cheap, and pumped storage is the answer? why not line the west (windy) coast of Tasmania with wind turbines and have them pump water back up hill?
60
or maybe dam the Franklin River, oh wait …
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Yep.
There’s an idea.
And, you could then shift all the industry out of the rest of Australia down there as well.
Tasmania, the manufacturing heartland.
That’s got a lovely ring to it.
That’d work, wouldn’t it? ;-0
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makes as much sense as any other plan I see doing the rounds at the moment
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I agree.
Apparently all’s fair in love and war.
And politics.
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I agree.
Apparently all’s fair in love and war.
And politics.
10
For some unexplained reason I saw a snippet of ABC “News” last night ** involving Penny Wong on her soapbox claiming that the retirement of the 2 Liberal Ministers meant that the Federal Government was dysfunctional and collapsing. Completely unchallenged, and I switched channels.
Given the comment 2112618 by Dennis yesterday
March 2, 2019 at 2:14 pm ” From Bolt Blog Daily Telegraph
More ALP members have resigned in the last couple of years than the combined Liberal National team and half are women”, it illustrates the mindset at the ABC. Soon they will be chanting
4 legs good,
2 legs bad.
** I had been fiddling with HDMI feed from my computer and had changed back to the input from the tuner. Can’t think how it happened, I never watch Channel 2 news and flick through them when channel surfing.
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If politicians superannuation is worked out as a percentage of the wage they are on for the current position they hold, and if that percentage rises a little for each extra year served after the original qualifying period, then I might think that retiring as a Senior Inner Cabinet Minister, and Leader of the House, and with 26 years ‘service’ it would mean a considerably higher fortnightly amount than retiring as, say, an Opposition backbenceher after losing an election.
Best to get out now then, eh!
My guess is that their internal polling shows a loss for the Coalition at the upcoming poll.
Excuse my cynicism in reference to the Superannuation thing.
Tony.
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Tony there is legislation changing the rules for retirement of politicians that takes effect from the start of the 2019 elected new government term.
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Reporting is that for Pyne, leaving as a minister rather now than a shadow from opposition means he is around $70 000 / year ahead. That’s under the old super scheme with defined benefits that the current Liberal rats running away qualify for. Think thats for ones elected pre 2004?
There is a possibility that their internal polling is more dire than the published stuff. People in what should be safe seats are bailing out. Money, or just not wanting to be in opposition?? Expect more cushy appointments to be made which hopefully the ALP will do a “review” and night of the long knives of post election
40
Yes, check out the Theo Theophanous resignation in Victoria a decade or so ago; only a fool would resign with a reduced final salary and neither of the Theophanous brothers was that.
10
I wonder whether the ALP resignations include the former member for Batman who resigned because of dual citizenship issues, and did not stand in the by election, being replaced by Ms Kearney formerly ACTU president
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In 2015, a change in the pension for MPs ensures that the age of full retirement for an MP having served at least 6 years, will no longer be 55 years but 65 years. Thus any MP not yet 65 and who wants to benefit from the present pension scheme need only not run in the next election and thus will draw for 10 years longer, a government pension of over $100,000 per year.
For elected MPs approaching 55 and who are not running, this means about $1 million that they would not receive should they run and win again. One should also add the severance premium (between $80,000 and $125,000) upon their departure.
60
No wonder so many rats are running.
51
Now, now, Annie. A little charity please. Be polite to the rats (rodent types).
30
UN Agenda 21 now 30 Sustainability, and the Government of Victoria is planning legislation to enable confiscation of properties when owners fail to comply …
https://corpau.blogspot.com/2018/06/government-to-confiscate-your-home.html
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Yes, this was canvassed here a couple of months ago and I stated then that I don’t understand how, without being invited, a council hireling is able to enter somebody’s house in order to assess its compliance.
00
2GB news bulletin this morning claimed – WITHOUT naming who did the survey/poll – that 80 percent of Australians put climate action and the economy at the top of their concerns (or words to that effect).
you would think that would be easily found in an online search. however, I’v given up. this is the best I have found. can’t find the survey on the JWS Research website, so can’t say this is even what was being referred to on 2GB:
2 Mar: The Australian: AAP: Voters worried about health, immigration
It also reveals confidence in all levels of government and business has gone down since Malcolm Turnbull was dumped as prime minister in August last year.
A poll of 1000 voters released by JWS Research on Saturday shows voters are mainly concerned with health, hospitals, immigration and the environment…
The report found Australians spontaneously mention issues with heavy media attention such as immigration and border security, the environment and climate change as top concerns, but when prompted with a list of issues, cost of living is their second-most pressing concern behind health.
The poll was conducted from February 21 to 25 with 1000 people from around Australia.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/voters-worried-about-health-immigration/news-story/dbc0cd0746599a7d4996729d046d5962
1 Mar: AFR: Voters more upbeat, but they’re not thanking the government
by Phillip Coorey
The latest quarterly True Issues survey by JWS Research shows that since November, the cost of living has slipped from first to second as the issue voters feel should be the government’s prime focus…
The latest survey finds the top six priorities for voters are, in order, health, cost of living, employment and wages, immigration and border security, the economy and finances and the environment.
Yet the six issues for which they (FEDERAL GOVT) receive the worst performance rating are the environment, health, agriculture and regional development, energy, cost of living and vision, leadership and quality of government…
The latest survey also asked people to list their own priorities without prompting.
This still saw health and hospitals come first, followed by immigration and border security, and the environment and climate change. The cost of living came in at seventh.
Mr Scales said recent public debate about border protection and climate policy had elevated the issues in the public conscience. Borders are a strength for the Coalition, and the environment and climate works in Labor’s favour…
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/voters-more-upbeat-but-theyre-not-thanking-the-government-20190301-h1bvhq
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The Victorian Government has approved a solar farm on dry agricultural land near Shepparton and deferred decision on three more proposed for irrigated land, pending further investigation. It made me think there is an additional, ongoing cost, in CO2 terms, of solar farms, additional to the CO2 added by sending shiploads of iron ore, coal and other minerals to China, and the ships returning empty, and the transport of the panels and other materials from China, and the transport of the panels to Shepparton, and the transport of machines and employees to the area for installation, and the requirements for connection to the grid and the cost of keeping coal fired generation on standby.
If the area where the solar panels will be installed, plus access roads and access to the panels, is currently covered with plants, whether trees, grass, weeds, these plants convert CO2 to oxygen as they grow. If the plants can’t grow because of the solar panels then they are not converting CO2 to oxygen, therefore there is a cost in CO2 terms. It may be a small cost but it’s ongoing for as long as the solar panels are there, even of the business goes broke and the solar panels are neglected
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I imagine Dan’s hotshot planners envisage this happening without old dirty coal-fired backup. It’s going to be diesel or a third Basslink cable or even an undersea link to New Zealand could be on their drawing board there being no limit to their mindless optimism.
10
This week in Canadian politics
Another Rex
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-the-trudeau-virtuecrats-come-tumbling-down#comments-area
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“Singapore’s highly successful economic evolution in an era of irrational global climate alarmism propaganda”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/01/singapores-highly-successful-economic-evolution-in-an-era-of-irrational-global-climate-alarmism-propaganda/
Putting sea level rise in the “What, Me worry?” category
10
The shape of things to come. (think Snowy 2.0 here)
This is a little complex, so I hope I can explain it effectively.
Sometimes you see something and you wonder why, and here, I’m speaking of me, and the ‘perceived’ knowledge base I think I might have when it comes to electrical power generating issues, having been watching it so closely now for so long, and especially after doing the Base Load Series every day for 15 Months. and now the daily electrical power data Series, also on a daily basis.
I wondered why the Base Load for Saturday morning was so high. It’s been averaging between 18200MW and 18800MW all of last week, barring one morning at 19100MW. It’s usually just at one point in time, around 4AMEST, (as all AEMO recording data is done at EST, using Queensland time, as power consumption requires an instantaneous reading) and varies around that MW total by 200MW or so for around an hour or so.
So, on Saturday morning, yesterday 2Mar2019, there it was steady on 20200MW, (around 1500MW higher than it usually is for a Saturday morning in Summer) and there’s nothing really out of the ordinary there as on some days you do get a spike. However, what made this so interesting was that it hovered around that figure (up to 20300MW for one five minute reading, but steady on that low of 20200MW) for three and a half hours, and that is something I have not seen before.
Okay then, for most of this week, Victoria has had hugely increased power consumption across the whole day. Luckily, all ten coal fired Units are on line and operational for the whole week, delivering around 4700MW across the whole day, virtually in a straight line for that total. Now, as consumption in Victoria had increased by so much, then that State was also running its gas fired Units, delivering anything up to 1500MW extra. They (Victoria) were also running their smaller Other source Units as well. On top of that they were also getting plenty of power from hydro as well, most of it from that huge hydro plant, Murray One and Two, running at its maximum, 1500MW for many hours on end across the day, delivering all of that into Victoria. As well as that, the pumped hydro at Tumut 3 was also operational across most days, some days more than most, but not at its full whack, perhaps four Units at most and just during the evening peak. However, Tumut 3 was delivering virtually on all days some levels of power, also going into Victoria as well.
So, on the day of least power consumption, (as well as the Sunday, also just as low) it was really odd to see that Base Load at that really high level, and for so long as well.
Okay then, second tangent coming here.
Coal fired power is currently delivering its power at around an average of 72% of all generated power across the whole day. However, at that Base Load time, coal fired power is virtually all there is, and it’s delivering at between 82% and 85% of all generated power, those Units just humming along at their lowest power delivery of the day, prior to rising throughout the day as more power is required.
Now the next tangent. The cost of power in just the two main States which would be used around that area of Tumut 3 pumped hydro are NSW and Victoria, were at their lowest point for the week on that Saturday morning at around that same Base Load time, and the three hours or more surrounding that time, and in Both States it was between $25 and $28 per MWH.
The Base Load was so high, because I would say they were using that power for that length of time plus a few hours before and after to pump all that water from the Tumut 3 lower pondage back ‘up the hill’ to the upper holding reservoir.
Rather than run Tumut 3 flat out all six Units hence 1500MW. they run a few Units a day when power is needed the most and is much much more expensive per KWH, depleting the upper storage and slowly filling that lower one, and then on the day of least power consumption, most coal fired power percentage and the cheapest power, they buy their power to pump all the water back up to the reservoir.
Get the idea here. It may be acting as a ‘battery’, but its a very lucrative one for the operators, eh!
(Hope I explained it so you could all understand it)
Tony.
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Crafty blighters! Mind you, things will look a bit different if certain factions get their way on a installing high percentage of ruinables. 🙁
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And closing down the remaining Old King Coal power stations.
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Under the current pricing strategy if you have storage (hydro or battery) it all about arbitrage, taking advantage of the vastly different market conditions through the day/week.
I thought the high base might be me leaving the AC on overnight. I am relieved.
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Quick one Yarpos. We have lots of apples….would you like some or have you had a good crop too? I could bring a bag of them down to the school (as was 🙁 ).
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That’s the thing about arbitrage Annie.
When everybody has an excess of apples you can’t give them away.
So put them in the cool room and sell them when there aren’t any.
The problem is, after a little while, other people start doing the same thing.
There goes your profit.
Same with electrons.
Pumped hydro is an arbitrage investment while-ever nobody else is doing it.
However, there are dozens, if not scores, of other pumped hydro options in Australia that will eventually come on stream and cut the margin.
Net result?
White elephants.
There goes your profit.
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Mrs Y is somewhat of an apple nerd herself with a small selection in the yard. She had planned to make cider but has gone low alcohol intake these days, so the tart varieties have gone and only eating style remain , so we are good thanks. Thanks for the offer though.
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Just a thought! I think the crop has been generally good around the area. I have spent a fair bit of time lately preparing apples for drying and stewing, the latter filling up spare room in the freezer.
The sheep love them and we must have most of the birds around here infesting us!
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I planted a few cider apples too but only two remain and I never did get around to making any cider. The cockies got all those cider apples early in the season…
I never had any commercial plans for ours, which I planted 21 years ago.
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In Mid-week Unthreaded (March 1), Clivehoskin listed some consequences of a UK surrender to the EU.
Just thinkin’. If the EU takeover is successful, what happens to the UK’s Veto vote at the UN after 2022, when …….”All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU…..”? Would the UK’s veto be automatically transferred to the EU? Would the UN allow the EU to claim that veto?
If the UK loses its veto vote to the EU, does the same happen to France?
In the event of a EU takeover in the UK, what will be the status of the Royals after 2022? Will the EU become Australia’s Head of State? Who would the Governor-General report to?
And while on the subject of international agreements, has anybody else ever wondered what is in the fine print of all these Free Trade Agreements Australia seems to be signing with gay abandon lately? It scares the hell out of me.
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Australia needs the UK to succeed with Brexit, not to mention La France et Frexit.
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If the forces that be are able to stop Brexit then Australia needs to do some serious thinking.
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What do you mean “in the event of an EU takeover”? The EU took over in 1993. With regard to the position of the monarchy, the opinion of some legal experts is that when the Maastricht Treaty was signed (illegally) by John Major in 1993, the Queen was made a citizen and vassal of the EU and thereby subject to the European Court of Justice (which is illegal under English common law). The exact implications of that are unknown, but for Australia this once again highlights the dangers of having the distant monarch of a foreign power (as defined by our own High Court) as our head of state. This is not 1900. There are all sorts of entanglements which arise from such an archaic arrangement and if anything goes wrong over there, our legal system is left stranded and impotent. Obviously you know where I am heading with this.
To me Brexit is the modern day Battle of Britain where the future of all the western democracies — even in far-off Oz — depends upon its outcome. Britain is alone once more against a Europe consumed by an evil empire determined to eradicate freedoms and sovereignty. Trump has given us some breathing space for one presidential term, hopefully 2, but we need more than that to survive.
The UN might be the source, but Europe is the epicentre where the globalist disease is chronically entrenched and it is there that the cure must be administered first. Britain is the chink in the EU wall, with Italy, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands and even France waiting to see what happens. That the EU will collapse is a given, but it needs to fold soon before even more damage is done through uncontrolled migration and oppressive regulations. The UK needs to leave now on its own terms, not under some ad hoc exit resulting from the collapse of Europe.
Brexit is the last best hope. Those following it closely will know how complex the machinations to stop it are becoming, but in that complexity are the seeds of failure for the Anti-Brexit gangsters if they can’t get their way by March 29th. There are all sorts of legal impediments to their impediments. Get the popcorn and cross fingers, toes plus any other bodily appendages that can be crossed.
Brexiteers should invoke the spirit of Boudicca:
“You have learned by actual experience how different freedom is from slavery. Hence, although some among you may previously, through ignorance of which was better, have been deceived by the alluring promises of the
RomansEU, yet now that you have tried both, you have learned how great a mistake you made in preferring an imported despotism to your ancestral mode of life, and you have come to realize how much better is poverty with no master than wealth with slavery.”Except it won’t be freedom with poverty, under WTO and GATT rules it will be freedom with prosperity. Britain will flower once again without the EU millstone around its neck. Britain is already economically outstripping the rest of the EU by some considerable distance even with all of the Brexit uncertainty. Germany looks like going into a recession even without Brexit; France is teetering; with a successful Brexit it will be dire for both.
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Hatrack
“And while on the subject of international agreements, has anybody else ever wondered what is in the fine print of all these Free Trade Agreements Australia seems to be signing with gay abandon lately?”
A contributer to Chiefio had read the full text of the TPP that fell over.
The talk of the day was of its effect on trade.
IIRC there were 29 chapters, only 5 of which had to do with trade.
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And that’s what scares me. What were the other 25 chapters about?
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24.Too many sherbets.
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IIRC globalist things.
No wonder Trump sank it and stayed out of Mark 2
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Yesterday I noticed an interesting tidbit on the Mars rover site:
Remembering Mars’ atmosphere is currently 95% CO2 which readily dissolves in water to create the bicarbonate ion and a free proton, has anyone got any ideas how clay from pH-neutral water was ever possible on Mars?
A couple of hypotheses:
1) The clay somehow formed in the sub-surface, so it wasn’t exposed to the high-CO2 atmosphere.
2) The water was exposed to a thicker atmosphere prior to forming clay, but the ancient atmosphere had such a large quantity of other gases lighter than CO2 that the same quantity of CO2 remaining today was a smaller partial pressure of the atmosphere that existed back then, meaning much less dissolved in water to lower pH.
3) Some other chemical was present in water in exactly the right quantity to offset the pH reduction effect of CO2.
Any ideas?
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Firstly, only a small amount of the CO2 that dissolves actually dissociates into acid, most remains as gas.
Secondly, the acidity of rain water is well known but who knows how much CO2 would dissolve at reduced atmospheric pressures. The lower pH figures for soft drinks are achieved by higher than atmospheric pressures.
Thirdly, if clay is forming then there have to be soluble minerals to react, and they may well have a buffering effect on the pH (as in sea water).
Fourthly, the reaction of dissolved CO2 to dissociate is pH dependent, it gets slower as the pH drops and stops around pH 5.
The politically correct answer is to blame Climate Change.
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Yellow vest protests: Marches continue in France for 16th weekend as organisers say ‘Macron is not responding’
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/yellow-vest-protests-marches-continue-in-france-for-16th-week-as-organisers-say-macron-is-not-a4080966.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1551532314
There is a reference to a spokesperson …
“Sophie Tissier, a co-ordinator of the Paris protest, said: “We keep protesting every Saturday because Macron doesn’t respond at all to the yellow vests’ demands. We want to rebuild our democracy and change today’s political system.
The groups, gathering in Paris and other cities, began protesting against a now reversed fuel tax and continue to rally against economic policies seen as favouring the rich.”
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The longer it goes the more clearly Macron’s irresolute character is revealed; De Gaulle would have resigned and then set about reconstruction well before now.
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“Damage Control: CNN Explains “Global Warming” Does Not Always Mean Warming”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/02/damage-control-cnn-explains-usas-climate-change-driven-winter-cold/
Somewhere the other day I saw a mention of
“Four feet of solid global warming”
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CNN just focus!! climate CHANGE dammit! the warming thing isnt really working.
and pay attention! there may be further changes
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” Flight Level
March 2, 2019 at 7:20 pm
So far in between simulator drills, check rides, proficiency, all kind of directives and updates, there was not a single training on the effects of global warming on aviation. Other drivers wearing different colors report the same.
Not a single official safety update or training directly related to global warming impact on weather and flight conditions.
From this perspective we can safely deduce that authorities do not really have tangible evidence of whatever scaremongers they feed the public.
Further paradox: -If I import a car, I’ll have to pay a one time CO2 tax. About 500$ for a very small 1.1 liter gasoline cheap drive. And exponentially increasing for bigger displacement engines.
However eventual subscription and other attendance / lodging fees to a climate saving conference, COPxx included, would not qualify as tax deductible for private citizens.
Even more funny. Based on safety concerns, German post would refuse to ship Lithium batteries. Including the same brand and type as those powering their 3-cycles and other “zero emission” delivery vehicles.
It all seems to be a one way only deal. From our pockets to their junkets.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/02/damage-control-cnn-explains-usas-climate-change-driven-winter-cold/#comment-2645244
So it obviously doesn’t affect all those personal jet aircraft (/S)
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Chris Kenny on sky news just now throwing mud at BOM for their continually lowering past temps and has explained previously they would when asked offer up a mouth piece to explain what they were doing but with the new Acorn Sat 2 readjustments they were unwilling to go on tv and explain what they were doing .
Instead Kenny went to their website and displayed their gobbledygook reason for fudging the data which Kenny rightly exposed it for what it is .
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former Labour MP, nuclear advocate, Brian Wilson:
2 Mar: Scotsman: Brian Wilson: Scotland set to miss out on renewable revolution – again
Failure to turn vast sums of UK consumer susbsidies for onshore windfarms into a substantial Scottish industry was a disaster over the past decade or so.
Now something worse is happening. In spite of many years’ notice, the same thing is happening with offshore wind, which had even greater potential due to the huge scale of the projects
The Moray Firth East windfarm’s French owners have delegated procurement to the Belgian firm, GeoSea, which awarded half the main contract to a state-dependent outfit in the UAE and look set to give the rest to another Belgian partner, Smulders…READ ALL PLUS COMMENTS
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-scotland-set-to-miss-out-on-renewable-revolution-again-1-4882022
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fantastic example of how the local consumers are harvested under the guise of saving the planet
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1 Mar: EastAnglianDailyTimes: Wind farm projects off Suffolk coast ‘should not be achieved at any cost’, councils warn
by Sarah Chambers
Suffolk councils say they remain ‘deeply concerned’ about the impact of proposed wind farm schemes off its coast, and the ‘lack of co-ordination’ with other planned energy projects.
Speaking in response to ScottishPower Renewables wind farm plans, Suffolk County Council and Suffolk Coastal District Council said they continued to support the principle of offshore wind to reduce carbon emissions and provide significant economic benefits in the county and the UK, but said that this “should not be achieved at any cost to Suffolk”.
Reports have been jointly written and will be presented at each authority’s upcoming cabinet meetings, in response to ScottishPower Renewables proposals for the East Anglia Offshore Windfarms One (North) and Two.
The reports raise a wide range of concerns about them, including impact on land and seascapes…READ ON
https://www.eadt.co.uk/business/scottishpower-renewables-wind-farm-plans-slammed-1-5913986
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Generac are advertising heavily at the moment for their generator that automatically kicks in when the power goes out .
No need for this pre Hazelwood but now I’m sure they’re doing a brisk trade .
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Runs off the gas supply. No stuffing around with diesel storage. Definitely worth considering.
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Despite what is being said by politicians in Victoria, coal fired power is still delivering the bulk of the power there.
On Friday March 1st, coal fired power delivered 72% of every watt of power being consumed in the State.
Currently, all ten Units are on line and delivering at close to their maximum. (two at Loy Yang B, four at Loy Yang A, and four at Yallourn W)
The image shown at this link shows just those ten coal fired Units (the coloured lines near the bottom of the graph) and I have positioned the time indicator around the middle of the graph to show the total. Notice how unlike in other States, these Units in Victoria are running at peak output virtually all the time when increased power is required, while in NSW and Queensland, they ramp up and down across the day.
Now there’s no Hazelwood, Victoria needs all the power they can wring out of the surviving Units in that State. Pity help if they propose to shut any of them down.
Tony.
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Another “would you believe it? Well these days probably”
“Not your grandma’s humane society: https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/fearing-their-dogs-will-develop-autism-some-owners-are-declining-vaccinations-CXdLJTskf0qAcHql_sgCIQ/”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2019/03/03/march-3-2019-reader-tips/#comment-1187087
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Jo, you have been down for a long time. I’m posting this and I’ll let you know what hapens.
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Presuming your support email works.
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All seems to be back to normal now.
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Knowing how much trafic Jo gets she’s probably got more notification by now than she could use in a ear.
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YEAR, not ear.
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I hear.
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Has Trump committed political suicide or has the swamp set him up?
I’ve been hearing that people have been getting smaller tax returns this year but heard that was because there were smaller weekly deductions but everyone was still better off. Seems it isn’t so, it is a debacle with some having to pay thousands extra because of reduced deductions.
Have the public servants deliberately written bad law to bring him down?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnFjGNFGh8w
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Don’t know if anyone will see this but over at Catallaxy Files news of Memory Vault’s wife passing away, for those that don’t know he was a regular commenter here a few years ago and a bloody good one IMHO.
My condolences for your loss mate.
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sad to hear that. He was a rascal a rogue and a fine fellow
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oh yeah his wife…
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There’s a greenie walking from Melbourne to Canberra as a protest on climate change , he has put out a plea for assistance etc and it seems around here he won’t get much with the majority of comments trashing his futile demented efforts .
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Not sure if this has already been posted…..maybe another green energy going bust with tax payer funds. https://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/mcgowan-governmentbacked-wave-energy-company-carnegie-suspended-from-australian-securities-exchange/news-story/18c63a1a6b74c8a3643d76e3b51112ad
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At last the riddle of climate change has been solved with 21st Century physics supported by overwhelming evidence on Earth and throughout the Solar System. This video presents a whole new paradigm in climate science showing why surface temperatures are not determined by radiative forcing from the cold atmosphere, but rather by gravity forming a stable non-zero temperature gradient in every planetary troposphere, this being the state of thermodynamic equilibrium which thus allows a most surprising heat transfer from cold to hot and yet still in accord with the Second Law of Thermodynamics because entropy is increasing. See my new 15 minute video at: https://youtu.be/bT1iFhGKOI8
Footnote: Also watch my 7 minute talk to scientists and others outside Parliament House, Canberra…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ihaY_1KSrE
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thanks but no thanks
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