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Weekend Unthreaded
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JoNova A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX
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7 Oct: CleanTechnica: Attempts To Silence Climate Scientists Have Been Desperate But Effective
Originally published on Nexus Media by Jeremy Deaton
Right-wing groups are using open records laws to obtain scientists’ emails, and then misrepresenting the content of those emails to question the integrity of researchers and cast doubt on their findings, all of which has a chilling effect on scientific inquiry.
But scientists have earned powerful allies in the fight to protect their research — including, by a strange set of circumstances, the Trump administration…READ ON
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/07/attempts-silence-climate-scientists-desperate-effective/
Climate Reality Project: Be a Part of the Movement. Join Us in Pittsburgh.
Al Gore: I’ve had the great privilege of personally training over 12,000 climate activists as part of our Climate Reality Leadership Corps program…
Today, I’m excited to announce that we’ll be training our next group of activists at our 36th Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from October 17-19, with support from the ***Heinz Endowments.
7 Oct: CBC: Elmira activist chosen for world climate leadership workshop (in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
Sandra Bray will take part in 36th Climate Reality Leadership Corps training, Oct. 17 to 19
Sandra Bray will take part in the 36th Climate Reality Leadership Corps training from Oct. 17 to 19 with over 300 other participants from around the world.
“There are so many people, it’s incredible,” said Bray, who has been getting to know the other participants through a Facebook group…
Bray, who has been involved in environmental advocacy for many decades, said lately it hasn’t felt as “fun” or “productive” as in the past…
“These are hundreds of people gathered in one spot who are very, very concerned about our future and the future for children,” she said…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/sandra-bray-elmira-climate-reality-leadership-pittsburgh-training-1.4344140
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From the first reference;
Once again we see an alarmist inverting reality into a counter fantasy.
People playing dirty represents the alarmist mob exactly. When skeptics impugn the character of a climate scientist it is because they have been exposed for actual and serious malfeasance.
The proposition that scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans are altering the climate is doubtful at best. Those who think that the changes represent an emergency are likely far fewer. Catastrophic consequences? Again the word “potentially”. Is the risk significant or even meaningful?
Climate deniers (does he mean skeptics) can’t dispute the data. Yes we can and successfully.
They can’t win on facts. Yes we can, indeed almost every time.
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Oh RICO! Oh Shukla!
https://www.creators.com/read/walter-williams/10/15/suppressing-free-speech
51
Thanks Beth.
This quote seemed relevant:
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Pat,
Thank you for you update on this intense propaganda machine! 🙂 Some here seem to think you promote such because you correctly report such tragedy in progress. Can some at JoNova help to identify the difference between ‘what is promoted’, and the criminals that promote such? 🙂
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3 Oct: CBC: Federal government failing to put climate plan into action, environmental watchdog finds
Commissioner Julie Gelfand says stronger leadership needed to move beyond ‘endless planning mode’
by Kathleen Harris
In a blunt fall audit report tabled in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Julie Gelfand said the government has failed to implement successive emissions-reduction plans, and is not prepared to adapt to the life-threatening, economically devastating impacts of a changing climate…
The government has also failed to adopt regulations to reduce greenhouse gases that could help limit the risks of pollution, natural disasters, forest fires and floods, the audit finds…
Only five of 19 departments and agencies examined by Gelfand’s audit team had fully assessed risks and taken steps to address climate change. The other 14, including Environment and Climate Change Canada, Public Safety and National Defence, had taken “little or no action” to address the risks…
Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, said the Trudeau government has not done the hard work of “turning its admirable words on climate change into meaningful action.”…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/environment-commissioner-report-climate-change-1.4317074
7 Oct: Daily Mail: Jessica Finn: Obama takes to the golf course following energy summit with Argentine President Mauricio Macri who says the former president owed him a round a day
Obama was in the country for the Green Environment Summit and gave an impassioned speech about climate change and clean energy Friday
The leaders(???) discussed the upcoming 2018 G20 Summit in Buenos Aires
On Saturday Obama golfed with Marci at the course owned by the president’s brother Golf Club de Bella Vista after delivering a speech on clean energy the day before after arriving on a ***private plane…
Obama told an audience of government ministers, business leaders and young environmental activists that we have the means to change the planet. ‘This is no longer speculation, this is no longer an issue that we can put off, this is firmly in the present.’
‘If we take advantage of this critical time, we have the chance to slow and even stop a trend that could be disastrous,’ Obama said according to Phys.org.
‘We cannot condemn our children and their children to a future they cannot repair,’ said Obama, who signed the Paris Climate Accord agreement that President Donald Trump declined to sign off on.
‘We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change but we’re also the last generation that can do something about it.’
Obama said most of all, young people need to be working towards solutions to climate change and to find ways to harness clean energy efficiently. The need to ‘understand this is not just a job for politicians.’
‘We’ve got to educate our friends, our families, our colleagues, and describe what’s at stake. And we need to speak up in town halls, and in churches. We need to push back against those who would try to spread misinformation, and deny science.’
He also took a dig at Fox News saying ‘if you watch Fox News you probably don’t believe climate change is such a problem.’…
He also pointed to Miami, and the ocean rising around the large city.
‘It’s very hard to build a dam around Miami because the water is coming up through the ground. It’s porous, that’s the reason why even on a sunny day there are parts of Miami now where you’ll see a foot of water running down the street.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4958914/Obama-takes-golf-course-Argentine-President-Macri.html
7 Oct: Telesur TV: Argentina: Obama Plays Golf with Macri, Stays Silent on Sala, Maldonado
Critics say this event mirrors the 1990s crisis in Argentina when President Carlos Menem played golf with President George H. W. Bush.
Obama arrived in a private plane on Friday and delivered a speech at the Green Economy Summit 2017 summit in the city of Cordoba, where he congratulated “the effort” of Macri in the country.
A large security operation of over 200 security officials awaited his arrival, as well as Cordoba’s Governor Juan Schiaretti and a small group of businessmen…
Social organizations criticized Macri, who has called for increasing the external debt; authorizing the United States to carry out military exercises in Patagonia; and for harsh labor and educational reforms as part of his right-wing program…
They also criticized Obama who came to play golf but hasn’t said anything about the disappearance of activist Santiago Maldonado or the imprisonment of Indigenous leader Milagro Sala…
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I’m truly dreading things now. It’s Spring and we have a 23C day. We’re all doomed. Doomed I say.
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The other silly thing is we are experiencing unusual cold nights but I don’t see anyone claiming the end of the world due to another ice age. TO be consistent they should, but of course the leftists are anything but consistent, except for their stupidity.
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Here’s the view from the Met Service in Godzone :-
Issued 3 October 2017
September 2017:
For the third month in a row, low pressures dominated the weather map over New Zealand. September was an unsettled and relatively wet month for most regions,except for Hawkes Bay and Southland.
Frequent northwesterlies affected the North Island, but there were also several wet easterly events.
The eastern South Island recorded between 115 and 230 percent of normal September rainfall, and Bay of Plenty, Waikato and the Gisborne region experienced at least 150 percent of normal.
It was also wet for Northland, Auckland and Coromandel, and between New Plymouth and the Kapiti Coast, with rainfalls 110 to 140 percent of monthly normal in these regions.
Cooler temperatures lingered for the first three weeks of September over the inland South Island, before extreme warmth moved in for the last part of the month.
Temperatures across the North Island and for the coastal South Island were generally average to above average, overall.
The Ocean:
Seas around the upper North Island are currently cooler than average, but remain well above average around the lower half of the South Island. Tropical waters around Fiji continue warmer than usual.
Importantly, sea surface temperatures along the equator itself have cooled during the last few weeks.
Waters below the surface are also cooler than usual.
While current conditions remain in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)neutral range, all the climate models forecast further cooling before Christmas.
About half of the models push into La Nina territory by the end of the year. If a late-developing La Nina does occur, it may well be short-lived (easing during the first quarter of 2018).
In the short-term, the position of High pressure near New Zealand will be key to the October weather patterns.
The October Outlook:
High pressure finally makes a return to the New Zealand this month. While we will still see fronts and lows on the weather maps, these will be less frequent than is usual for October.
Initially, Highs are signalled to favour both Islands equally. But as the month progresses, the main axis of the intermittent Highs should drift south, with easterly winds setting up over northern New Zealand.
A drier than normal October is forecast for the South Island (excluding Marlborough), as well as in the south and west of the North Island. For Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, the Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Marlborough, closer to normal October rainfall is forecast.
October temperatures are forecast to run above average across New Zealand, with the largest deviation from average over the South Island. Note that we will still see cold southerly changes and some cooler mornings, but the month as a whole is predicted to run warmer than usual.
Bottom line:
High pressure reappears on the weather map. Above average October temperatures across New Zealand. A drier than usual October, except for the north and east of the North Island and Marlborough, where closer to normal totals are predicted.
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And so the first week has been fairly crap with shirty easterlies persisting for much of it. And the forecast does not predict much change , especially in temperature.
http://www.metservice.com/rural/manawatu#!/palmerston-north
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Armidale NSW 3.36 pm
16 C – feels like 14 C – cloudy, some showers
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18C max in Perth today. Unlike Perth in Spring. Should be mid 20’s.
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I’m sure BOM will fix it .
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BOM has “fixed it”. Recently on WUWT Nick Stokes showed a BOM graph of Australia’s recent temperatures, showing Perth to be “normal”, if anything slightly warm. As anybody in Perth will tell you, it’s cold and wet, and it has been cold and wet for some time, almost identical to last year. I just cannot understand why BOM continues to fail to acknowledge that Perth’s springtimes HAVE changed markedly.
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All I can say is I’m disappointed, 3 months in Perth, it’s October, half way through spring and I haven’t been able to pack away the woolies yet! What happened to all that warming? Even worse last week it was like 6 deg at night here! The least you sandgropers could have done for a displaced Queenslander is throw out the welcome mat and keep the weather warm!
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5 deg last night
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Well bemused, yesterday where I live it was 13.3C max, today at 2.30pm it’s 13.1C and forecast for minimum for tomorrow is 4C and I live on the Australian mainland not Tassie. I’m worried about it getting too cold. I like hot summers.
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Well, we had to buy some more wood as, given what it was like last year, we were still burning the stuff in late November. One warm day does not a Summer, or global warming, make.
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My forecast for a cool wet spring is still good.
40
The “Category 1 Hurricane, Nate” now over New Orleans is packing mind-boggling 80kph winds.
If 80kph winds constitute a cyclone/hurricane, Australia should experience several hundred cyclones this year, particularly on the West Coast of Tasmania.
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Exaggeration is a popular feature of the warmists. Next they will be saying the end of the world is near because we are experiencing rain and thunderstorms.
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We in Victoria often get winds with speeds a lot higher than that and 100kmh in not unusual at all.
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Australia is without doubt one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and the level of corruption reaches into very high places.
We all know how the Trade Union Royal Commission into governance and corruption was not extended despite much unfinished business and a large number of witnesses referred to state, territory and federal law agencies for further investigation and possible charging. And that after the Commission was stood down many or most of those referred were no longer required for attention. The system that protects trade unions and others closed ranks.
Right now there is a wealth of new documentary evidence discovered relating to the AWU slush fund matter. Despite evidence that was irrefutable earlier a Victoria Police investigation has been abandoned and the Director of Prosecution there has ignored inquiries from solicitors expressing interest in the several matters involved. I understand that the F word applicable is clear cut in law, unlike many court matters that criminal behaviour cannot be denied because the paper trail and documents involved cannot be contested.
One person has been charged and has faced a court of law in WA, that hearing resulted in a date for another by end September, and now extended to 20 December 2017.
Yet the matter involves more than the people directly involved, add those who covered up and assisted in various ways to bury the matter. The names are well known public figures, past and present.
We talk about RET and corruption, BoM misleading us, and more.
I recommend the following website and ask you to scroll through the latest several articles, and maybe you will dig even deeper, the website has been published for a few years to date …
http://www.michaelsmithnews.com
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Australia does not have a monopoly on corruption per se – it’s everywhere. What makes us different though is that we don’t have the checks and balances. and the smart people at high places that most other countries have. We then have corruption let lose at all levels for much longer. It has to become “in your face” across the whole population before we lemmings wake up and notice. That’s why the renewables mania is taking this country over the cliff. At least in other countries they know the fuss over renewables is too extreme and as a result that’s why they are building hundreds and hundreds of high efficiency low emission coal fired power stations to “appease” those voicing the scare – they know if they don’t build them their nation will collapse economically and socially. We on the other hand are unique in the world. Perhaps because of our remoteness or perhaps our laziness but whatever it is we appear not to care that our country is being lead down the tubes. I expect once we do go down the tubes the people will have to wake up and think about our country’s future for a change and decide what to do, or else we just sit back, do nothing and let it be taken over by perhaps China or some other country. We are so rich in resources and space so if anyone thinks there no countries out there itching to come in and take us over then they must be living under a rock.
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If by that you’re refering to America as a place with checks and balances then be assured, they don’t work here either. We may be going downhill a little later than Australia but we’re sliding down that same slope right behind you.
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Roy
IIRC you refer to “checks” where we use “cheques” for financial matters.
So “checks” and “balances” is a perfect explanation
00
They don’t “Q” in America, they just wait in line.
00
“Australia is without doubt one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and the level of corruption reaches into very high places.”
Please please distinguish the difference in corruption of the few in so called ‘high places’ and the vast wonderful personal integrity of those low life folk. At both ends are those that will take advantage, if possible! but look at the numbers.
In the US 564 congress critters plus staff vs. 360,000,000 honest low life folk. In AU I do not know, In the USA with ‘well regulated’ armed forces the 564 think the armed forces will protect them from the 360,000,000. HA!! The US armed forces will maintain order with Beer and Pretzel concessions all the way along the long march to DC by dedicated folk bearing only well sharpened pitchforks and well oiled torches. We believe that the many US Black Bears can keep their own arms. 🙂
12
The hiatus in temperatures for the past couple of decades is easily explained, the Indian Ocean became a heat sink.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075050/abstract
40
well it is interesting. So hiatus everywhere else plus extra heat in Indian means totoal energy going up still therefore no hiatus.
Like I said before… it looks like more refined conclusions using more detailed analysis on an improved data set. Basic scientific sub-process of reporting on incremental improvements to understanding with an additional novel outcome to lead further research.
10
Ignoring this grab for grant money …
‘Large-ensemble climate model simulations suggest that this warming event was likely also exacerbated by anthropogenic forcing and thus unprecedentedly strong as compared to previous IPO transition periods. Climate model projections suggest an increasing possibility of such strong decadal warming in future.’
… what do you think of the science?
One other point worth considering, the red team is composed of people who view the science from a paleo climate perspective, while the blue team are primarily model worshippers.
00
Every paper makes a grab for funding if you consider that authors are encourage to try to put their contribution in the context of future work that follows their own work.
The red team, as I understand the term, can come from any direction including using the same tools as the blue team. It is how they use those tools.
10
They say the red and blue team must be adversarial, but maybe not. The Indian Ocean heat content from Bob Tisdale shows a definite warming, yet there is concern about the data.
https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/19-argo-era-ohc-atl-ind-pac.png
00
It seems that there has been an increase in the Indian Ocean heat content, the warm blob has come over from the Pacific through Indonesian waters.
We now have to prove, one way or another, whether this transport of heat is natural or human induced?
00
This paper by Xiaobing Zhou et al is supported by BoM and the CSIRO, so it has some credibility. Its all down to the PDO and has nothing to do with AGW.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16000870.2017.1308055
The Red Team wins.
00
Just up the shed fixing a lamp and listening to the radio (abc) and the news came on , I think the guy’s name was Gutteras and he was visiting the cyclone hit areas off the US and blaming climate change for the increase and severity and wants the developed countries to pay for the repairs because we are to blame for the warming that caused it all .
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Are you the bloke who fixes the lamps for the lamp lighter?
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I’ve been taking it easy this last week from making comments as I’m in the process of building a new computer system with some help from my sister the Computer programmer, and she has made the task so much easier.
I have been using Windows XP as my OS for so many years now, and it’s not being supported much any more, and even though it still works almost perfectly, the time has come to make the move. I have updated to Windows 10 as my new OS, and contrary to what has been mentioned to me, it’s not all that hard to get used to at all.
I expected all the changing over of ‘stuff’ to be done by saving it all to USB sticks and swapping it over to the new one, but not this time, as I just moved it from the existing computer to the new one through my modem router, which made the task so much easier really. It’s odd to have two monitors here in front of me, and sometimes I don’t know where to look. I usually have a number of ‘windows’ open on the monitor at any one time, so I just navigate from one window to the next, but with two actual monitors, two keyboards, two mouses, it’s sometimes a little disconcerting.
I’m all but set now. It’s surprising how small computers have actually become as the new one does much more, and is only a quarter of the physical sized box. Less connections at the back of the computer also.
I saw that article mid week about Adam Bandt and how he wants to legislate for 20GW of storage. Doesn’t that man know that to have all that storage, you actually first need to have that 20GW of actual generation to charge that storage up for later use, and it’s a case of use the power as it is being generated, or use it to charge the batteries, and you can’t do both. As to his comment that we don’t have (his words) a ‘baseload problem’, we have a peak load problem. Obviously he has no idea of what Base Load really means and that it is the 18000MW he has not even considered.
Sometimes I just shake my head.
This week’s data and analysis for those Base Load Posts of mine is at the following link.
Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 7th October 2017
Tony.
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” It’s odd to have two monitors here in front of me” ….. chuckle, only 2 ?.
I always use two big monitors on my main computer, can’t work without them.
and another on my old XP machine, and there is a laptop that gets used occasionally.
Keep your XP machine running. There will be some minor software you may occasionally wish to use that W10 doesn’t like. Easy enough to move stuff between them if you have a router.
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I work in IT and consider Win 10 complete rubbish – stick with windows 7 if you can.
Also, XP is out of support -no biggie. If its still works fine just use it.
Software companies force you to upgrade to maintain *their* cash flow, often times there is no need to upgrade……….
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I use Windows 69, its been a big turnaround from dos…….
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??? 🙂
10
Skype at home.
http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b331/kevster1346/home.jpg
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The Greens and their supporters (not the bankers, financiers etc that feed and feed off them) must be the most scientifically illiterate group of people on the planet.
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…by choice….
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Tony, are you able to calculate what % gas is now supplying of our electricity demand versus last year?
It’s my impression that gas has now become the baseload supplier for SA to maintain system stability, something that Hazelwood used to do. So yet another factor in the rising costs.
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It’s not for me to say that there may have been a deal done with AGL to supply power in SouthAus, but it seemed odd that a cheap brown coal fired plant like Hazelwood closed down, only to find that the Natural gas fired CCGT at Pelican Point came on line, and has stayed on line virtually non stop since the power went off in that State. Pelican Point regularly supplies between 160MW and its maximum, 480MW. Osborne, also CCGT is also a regular supplier of power also, as are some of the Units at Torrens as well.
I’ve seen gas supplying up to 1600MW in SouthAus when wind has ‘croaked’.
Tony.
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Perhaps “becalmed” is the word of choice for characteristcly idle.
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characteisticly idle wind turbines.
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Please excuse spelling I’ve had a couple of reds.
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I’ve had a copule rdes too. We speak a common languge.
http://i25.tinypic.com/wr14dw.jpg
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Afew days ago I said that to reach the 450GW storage amount (for 25 hours storage) would cost $375 billion, but I now have to update that figure in light of a recent cost for Tesla 2 modules to $A367,500,000,000.
20GW of storage would cost a mere $16.33 billion and provide 66 minutes supply on an evening with low wind. (Except it wouldn’t for the discharge rate would stuff up the batteries).
I note bemused comment about Greens being scientifically illiterate to which I would add that they aren’t able to do simple arithmetic as well.
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Tony,
You encourage me. I’ve been sticking with Windows XP for a long time past its “use by” date largely because for 47 years I went through relearning what a computer was all about so many different times it got to be something I would do anything to avoid doing one more time. But lately more and more sites, including my bank don’t like to see it, Chrome is no longer supported on it and the computer has begun to have some difficulties. So the indicate solution is a laptop with windows 10. If I can get the network and USB interfaces I want on it then I’ll be able to do as you did and transfer over many of the files I want to keep and just put the rest on an external hard drive I have that has a whole terabyte partition still unused for anything.
But no matter how I work it out in my head, I still don’t want to start relearning what a computer is all about. Windows 10 has several user interface options as I understand it and the main idea was to make it work and look like a smart phone. Dumb idea to me.
So as I said, you encourage me to go ahead with the laptop. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
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For anyone interested in th security issues I’m supposedly facing by not changing the plain truth is this — Microsoft is patching Windows 7, 8 and 10 just as fast and furiously as they were patching XP and before XP, 2000.
And it will always be that way. In the software business it’s a well known axiom that software is made broken and you spend th rest of your life fixing it. That’s a bit of an exaggeration because there comes a point where it’s so broken you can’t fix it anymore. The problem is that by making any change, a fix or feature change, it doesn’t matter, you risk introducing new problems.
Right now the last supported update to Windows XP will frequently hang indefinitely on any computer running a certain chip set. It’s a problem introduced by some change made to fix something or other and it introduced this hang on shutdown. It will happen on any PC using the chip set used by Lenovo who bought the rights to the hardware design from, guess who… …a world renowned PC pioneer, no less — not HP by the way.
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Roy (mainly)
This (new Windows10) is only the fourth OS I have ever used. My first computer was in January of 1996, and it had Windows For WorkGroups 3.1. Then I went to Windows 98, and then XP.
Perhaps the only reason I have stayed with XP for so long is because of one program, and that’s an image program. I found that the generic image programs which came with cameras (and mine was a Kodak Digital) were okay, but limited. My sister the computer programmer got hold of Adobe PhotoDeluxe Business Edition 1.0.1, the (early) program actually used by the photographic processing outlets back in the 90s. That program dates from before 2000, so I’ve been using it now for these 17 years, and on a daily basis, and multiple times a day, mainly editing images to use at my home site. I have become so used to it being able to do absolutely everything that I feared I wouldn’t find an equivalent replacement and I knew it wouldn’t run on anything recent in the way of OS, anything after XP anyway. I actually tried to load it up on the new computer and it stopped me at the first step, in fact, just after I closed the CD/DVD drive door. I tried to find a way around it even, but to no avail.
Anyway, after asking around, I was reliably informed that another Adobe program could do it all, so I got hold of PhotoShopElements, and I’m working my way through that, but it looks really good.
I guess I was just so used to the one thing I was comfortable with that I was a little scared to change.
The upshot is that I actually don’t mind Windows 10, and it’s pretty close to XP. Either that, or I’m now so used to Windows OS in general that I find it a little easier to navigate.
I have also updated to the NBN as well. The Node is barely 40 metres from where I’m sitting now, right on the corner of our property line. I was concerned that I would have to end up paying more money for a lesser service, as I was on ADSL2+ and was overjoyed with that service for what I wanted. Anyway, I’ve been with Telstra Bigpond now since 2005, and because of that, I have three loyalty bonuses, not much, but enough to make my Internet cost all but negligible, and I feared I would lose out in the change. However, when that time came, I was informed, over the phone, and then in an email, and then in a hard copy letter that I would pay the same cost for my NBN connection, and that has proved to be the case.
The change over day was seamless in every respect, and the whole changeover took me less than an hour it was so easy to follow.
So, I have really changed a lot of things, and the change has gone so smoothly, I keep thinking that I must be doing it wrong.
All I need do now is change over my email, and that’s the last thing to do now. I’m still using Firefox as a browser, but I’m going back to Outlook from Thunderbird for my emails.
At my age, change is something you are a little reluctant to begin, but this is going really nicely.
Tony.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2014/05/27/simple-hack-gives-windows-xp-users-5-more-years-of-support/#698733b870fc
00
From the linked article…
Clipe,
As usual the devil is in the details, or as they say, read the fine print.
Have you done this on your Windows XP machine and is it working? Sorry, no, has it been working for at least several months and though multiple updates? It only take one incompatibility in the wrong place to make a system unusable. I could of course back up the entire system first but there’s a caveat there too. I can only recover the backed up system registry and other important stuff if the machine key in the registry contains the letters OEM in the middle of it, which both of my XP machines do. OEM means Microsoft does not assume any liability for fixing anything even though they will provide updates. So assuming my computer is rendered inoperable or even partially inoperable to the point where I cannot restore from my backup, I would need to install the stock copy of XP that I have which would not say “OEM” in the right place and I could never restore what I will have lost. I have found the point in the registry where I would need to replace 3 characters with OEM but Microsoft has such tight security on that one item that I have never been able to find a way to change it.
These are things I have learned to think about the hard way through almost 20 years of writing Windows software and through more than one sudden disaster that required restoring the whole system, right down to the registry and some other protected files. I was lucky that the main work machine was one I could restore completely and the two here at home are also OEM.
I will admit to the temptation to try what you suggest but I’ll pass because I know of no issue plaguing me at he moment. And as a wise man once said, discretion is the better part of valor.
But thanks for the link. Microsoft’s recent history has been one mistake after another, Vista, 7, 8.1 and I hope they’ve learned to settle for things that work rather than for glitz and glitter. When I saw Vista’s transparent window borders and other fancy stuff but couldn’t get it to network properly if at all with its predecessor, XP I knew they had gone off the deep end. Thankfully the company opted to stay with XP for long enough that I could retire and get out from under the OS crap shoot.
I’ll probably go ahead with the laptop and 10 and one way or another I’ll transfer over what I need to save. And by the way, XP was, as far as I know, the last version that would run 16-bit programs and I have a few useful ones I have no way to replace with a functional equivalent. That sorta puts me in the same bind that larger users are in with their hundreds of thousands of lines of legacy COBOL or FORTRAN code that they keep running and more to the point, maintaining, because they can’t afford the cost of rewriting it all from scratch. But at least they are a large enough market that developers have kept giving them such oxymorons as structured FORTRAN.
Software in a way has been its own worst enemy. We can no longer live without it but we can’t seem to live with it either. It may all become a moot point because the current thinking that we don’t need nearly as much electricity as we really need seems to be gaining ground. 😉
10
PS:
All he OEM machines I’ve been talking about come pre installed, which means I do not have original OS installation disks. The recovery disks you get from dumping stuff onto a CD after the fact are a poor substitute at best.
20
Every operating system I’ve ever used, I turn off the automatic update feature.
I turned it off Windows 10 back at Christmas. I discovered about a month ago that my Windows 10 did an update that I couldn’t refuse, and now the option to turn off automatic updates has been removed.
10
disks?
00
Up the thread the Red Team is waiting.
10
A question for the computer literati.
What comes first, the Hardware or the Software?
Is the Software designed to fit the Hardware characteristics or is it the other way around, the Hardware is designed and made to conform to the Software available?
—————-
.
Please regard my following comments as you would regard another of those endless and ultimately useless, highly misleading “maybe”/ “potentially” / “possibly” and etc “climate change industry’s” predictions!
.
Reading some other comments above and relying on many similar comments over the last couple of years, the whole software situation seems to be becoming immensely complex with the overriding characteristic that rapid Software redundancy and obsolescence has from the users perspective, become the major and most unwanted characteristic of the current software industry.
The technological history of recent times tells us that when similar situations that involve a rapidly increasing almost uncontrolled increase in the complexity of a technology is under way, a major disruption to the status quo and a radical replacement by a very much simpler to implement alternative for that technology is highly likely in the not very distant future.
So just maybe we are not far off of some form of a new software and perhaps hardware design replacement technology is not very far off.
The entire digitally based computation industry, not just computers but the likes of CNC controlled machinery, the basis for the cheapness of so many manufactured products today plus radio, radar , the list is almost endless, relies on the binary digital system as its basic method of computation.
There is an alternative computation now just beginning to be explored and it is not quantum computing which increases the software complexity by almost orders of magnitude.
The not so new, in fact the most ancient system of computation and control of all is using DNA, the same stuff that is the basis for ALL life on earth and whose ability to both compute, control and archive information is almost endless.
[ First hint of how DNA calculators could supercharge computing ]
&
How DNA could store all the world’s data
However the transmission of data even data generated by DNA based computation systems will probably remain digital as digital at present seems to be the only method of transmitting information by light through the globe girdling fibre optics cable systems.
Even here data transmission ” quantum entanglement” transmission systems are now being developed that would handle the total of today’s data transmission over there World Wide Web in a fraction of the time that is currently required to handle similar data transmission volumes.
But then of course sometime in the far or maybe even the not so far future, the world might also find that the vast array of cable communications systems around the world have also become obsolete;
Scientists Achieve Direct Counterfactual Quantum Communication For The First Time
.
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
Quote from Arthur. C. Clarke
10
I knew you would notice the caveats.
10
It took making a couple of mistakes to learn to do that, read the fine print thing, before jumping instead of afterward.
00
I think Windows XP was much better than any other OS. I have a laptop with W7 and get really fed-up with the incessant updates…it puts me off using it. It is far less intuitive than XP to my way of thinking. I refused W10.
Perhaps I should haul out my old laptop with XP and see if it still does anything useful.
10
Hey Annie, turn the updates off.
Then Google Win 7 telemetry spyware removal.
Here is a couple of links.
https://www.ghacks.net/2017/02/11/blocking-telemetry-in-windows-7-and-8-1/
https://www.hackread.com/microsoft-updates-spy-on-windows7-8-users/
20
Thanks Chris.
00
Ok, I’ll put this out there for anyone who is getting a new computer or is doing a rebuild.
I have been doing this for a long time and if you know about remote directories, Win 2000, this will be easy. There will be some here who think they have a better system, so be it. This is just another way to make sure your operating system, applications and data are safe. Remote Directories are built into all Windows OS’s since 2000, you just have to use it. For example, if you right click on, say “My Documents” folder in Windows Explorer, and go to properties, it will ask you in the menu where the location is and all sorts of other stuff. So, in effect, your folder, ” My Documents”, could reside anywhere, even on another computer on the network.
My system has 3 drives, 2 SSD and 1 mechanical.
One SSD, 64 GB is for the operating system only, that is all you need. My Win7x64 ultimate occupies 32 GB.
The mechanical HDD is 500GB, for applications and Data.
The other SSD is 500GB for my hobby, Flight Simulator.
The operating system is installed on C:.
All applications get installed on D:. This is done during the installation process.
Data gets saved on D:, eg if you moved “My Documents” to D:, Windows knows where it is an saves and retrieves from that location.
If you have to install stuff on C:, Skype, Google Earth, they take up a heap of space, want to be on C:, you can use symbolic links to shift that stuff to D: Symbolic links are completely transparent and do not slow the system down. Actually, Windows is full of them.
To the software. I use “Active Boot Disk” to back up the O/S. Takes 7 minutes to back up or restore, only 35GB. There is other products that do the same. Makes a mirror image of the drive.
I use KLS Backup Pro to back up the applications and data on Drive D: to a external 1TB USB3 HDD. I use it in the Synchronize mode so it only backs up new stuff or files that have changed.
First run took about 30 min to complete but now takes a couple of minutes, as there is not much changed each week. It will back up open files like Outlook pst files, even if Outlook is running.
To make the symbolic links, I use “Junction Link Magic”, an easy to use program with a GUI, I think it was free.
I have lost so many tears over the years with the loss of data, so I did have the know how, I just had to go and make a proper backup system. I have spent months installing my Flight Sim, and now, when I crash it down by fiddling around, I get it all back in 15 minutes.
The first page of every computer book says, “Back It Up”.
40
And to keep my computer protected from spyware, Malware and ransomware, I use SpyHunter4.
It is always running in the background and alerts you if any process starts unknown to you, then gives you the chance to kill it off and remove it.
20
the world’s greatest self-promoter got publicity for this – but has not been heard on the subject again:
20 Sept: Thomson Reuters Foundation: Exclusive: Richard Branson setting up green energy fund to rebuild Caribbean
by Sebastien Malo
British billionaire Richard Branson said on Tuesday he is in talks to set up a fund to help Caribbean nations recently ravaged by Hurricane Irma replace wrecked fossil fuel-dependent utilities with low-carbon renewable energy sources.
The British business magnate has approached governments and would rally support among financial institutions and fellow philanthropists on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation…
Branson who heads the Virgin Group conglomerate has been a long advocate of clean energy, co-founding in 2009 the Carbon War Room to accelerate the adoption of business solutions that reduce carbon emissions.
Branson has already met with government representatives from Britain and the United States, said Jules Kortenhorst, who heads the U.S.-based Rocky Mountain Institute, a non-profit that has merged with the Carbon War Room. Tuesday’s meetings will include talks with the Inter-American Development Bank, he said…
Caribbean islands have typically generated power by burning diesel, which produces planet-warming carbon dioxide, said Kortenhorst. Scientists have for years warned that global warming will increase the frequency of freak weather events…
Branson, who sought refuge in the wine cellar of his home during Irma, still appeared shaken from the experience.
***“I’ve been involved in talking out about climate change for a number of years now … I never thought I was going to be in the frontline in quite the way I was two weeks ago,” he said at an event on fuel efficiency.
“It was just like an atomic bomb had hit everything.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-branson/exclusive-richard-branson-setting-up-green-energy-fund-to-rebuild-caribbean-idUSKCN1BU2I9
don’t hold your breath. however, Branson has committed to the following, it seems:
1 Oct: The National UAE: British businessman Branson to invest in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea project
The Virgin Airlines founder will invest in the development linking 50 islands
British billionaire businessman Richard Branson will invest in an ambitious tourism project in Saudi Arabia that will transform a 200-kilometre stretch of Red Sea coastline into a luxury destination. The development will feature hotels, residences and transport hubs, AFP reported on Sunday…
The Red Sea project is part of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic development plan that seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on oil and diversify the economy. Tourism is considered to be a vital generator of employment for Saudi Arabia’s young population…
Foundations will be laid in the third quarter of 2019, with the first phase due to be completed in late 2022…
https://www.thenational.ae/business/travel-and-tourism/british-businessman-branson-to-invest-in-saudi-arabia-s-red-sea-project-1.663252
check out the islands in this short video and ask yourself – is Branson really concerned about CAGW, sea level rise, etc?
Youtube: 1min13secs: 1 Aug: Red Sea Project to turn coastal region into tourism destination
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiCchH_dT3g
41
I love it, Branson owns a fleet of Airliners in Australia of 110 planes mostly 737-800s that burn 2500kg of kerosine per hour at cruise so thats around 2 Tonnes of carbon oxidised per hour per aircraft for a total of 7.3Tonnes per hour CO2. At a 60% duty cycle thats around 40,000 Tonnes of CO2 per annum per 737. So for the fleet of 80 737s we can estimate Bransons Australian CO2 emissions at a MINIMUM of 3 Million Tonnes per annum not accounting ascent and descent fuel penalties. Taking account of the rest of the fleet we can estimate that Richard’s emissions are north of 4 Million Tonnes per annum.
Sorry Richard, but your don’t qualify to lecture me (or anybody else) on CO2
81
Yeah, I know one dopey idiot with lotsa coin. Smug.
51
And how much ‘carbon’ tax does Virgin pay ?
31
bobl, I think you will find a 737-800 burns 2,300 pounds of fuel @ 85% N1 (cruise) per engine.
But I agree with you, Branson should just go away !
10
Oh, that is at 35,000 feet at Mach 0.78.
00
He’s trendy and the luvvies just love him.
51
7 Oct: Independent Malta: Ocean meeting in Malta raises over $7 billion for marine protection
The European Union, which organized the Our Ocean conference in the Maltese capital of Valletta, its 28 member states and its EIB investment bank gave almost half those financial commitments, about $3.4 billion…
Representatives from businesses, almost 100 countries and others pushed the total up to the unprecedented level…
The Our Ocean conference, which was also addressed by Prince Charles (photo), has accumulated some 8.7 billion euros ($10.2 billion) since it started in 2014 but the efforts in 2017 exceeded expectations.
“We are beginning to see leaders in government, civil society and the private sector standing up to be counted to make tangible commitments to conservation, which is most encouraging,” said Demetres Karavellas, head of the delegation for the WWF wildlife group…
On top of the financial commitments, nations also promised to add new Marine Protected Areas spanning more than 2.5 million square kilometers, which the EU said translates to over half its territory.
The efforts to better protect marine life came in all shapes. Five top global insurance industry companies committed to refuse insurance to vessels internationally blacklisted for illegal or unregulated fishing.
The mission to protect marine life is urgent, said the Vatican, pointing to the rapid decay in important sites like the Great Barrier Reef in Australia.
***”We witness a marvelous marine world being transformed into an underwater cemetery, bereft of color and life,” said Vatican Secretary of State Piero Cardinal Parolin.
http://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2017-10-07/local-news/Ocean-meeting-in-Malta-raises-over-7-billion-for-marine-protection-6736179917
***nice to see our own Ove Hoegh-Guldberg participating at this elite gathering!
OurOcean2017.org: Agenda
09:30 – 09:45 KEYNOTE ADDRESS (video)
•His Royal Highness The Prince of Wales
•His Serene Highness Prince Albert II, Sovereign Prince of Monaco…
13:45 – 15:15 PANEL SESSION: MARINE PROTECTION and ANNOUNCEMENTS (video)
Scenesetter: Dr. Enric Sala, Marine Ecologist and Explorer, National Geographic
Jeremy Darroch, Chief Executive Officer, ***Sky Corporate
13:45 – 15:15 PANEL SESSION: CLIMATE-RELATED IMPACTS ON THE OCEAN and ANNOUNCEMENTS (video)
Scenesetter: ***Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland…
Moderator: José María Figueres (CHRISTIANA’S BROTHER), Former President of Costa Rica, former Co-Chair of the Global Ocean Commission, co-founder of Ocean Unite and President of the ***Carbon War Room (FOUNDED BY RICHARD BRANSON, NOW LINKED TO ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE/AMORY LOVINS)…
15:45 – 17:15 OUR OCEAN LEADERSHIP and ANNOUNCEMENTS (video)
Moderator: His Excellency John Kerry, Visiting Distinguished Statesman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former US Secretary of State, United States of America…
https://ourocean2017.org/agenda
20
I hope they held this happy gathering on the right hand side of Malta.
If they held it on the left hand side, the island would capsize (just like Guam).
60
Pat I’d love to read your posts but they are just too bloody long.
62
Readers may have noticed that two of our Trolls – Willard and Julian – have not been commenting recently. Here is why they are occupied elsewhere.
Willard and Julian spent the WHOLE English summer – all 6 days – on the British beaches doing a pantomime costume act called the Wonkey Donkey. Willard was the one in the rear of the costume making the rude noises.
When the rain came disaster struck.
61
I have some sympathy for Willard when he criticised the Judge for dismissing the charges against the 7 arabs on the grounds that Willard was behaving provocatively, but his blunt australian way got him a week in custody for contempt of court.
And he didn’t get a cent from the 7,146 views on You Tube in the Middle East.
61
Julian’s troubles started when lovely, golden haired, 8 year old Alice Lushcombe told her aunts that she was going down to the beach because ‘Uncle’ Julian had promised that if she went into the tent with him he would give her something she hadn’t had before.
In recent years the 2 aunts, Violet and Petal Havocside, have concentrated on furniture moving, but drawing on their experience in the European Women’s heavyweight All-In wrestling league they soon had Julian tied, literally, in knots.
They were charged of course, but the Magistrate dismissed the charges when they claimed they were trying aversion therapy, but he fined them £5 for practicing psychiatry without a license.
61
Julian was outside the Court rolling around in a slight breeze waiting for the BBC to interview him. Originally called “Domestic Violence” it had been changed by Brian Harradine to “A Victim of Climate Change”. Before the BBC could set up a strong sea breeze sent Julian, and 2 beach balls, rolling and bouncing along the road for a little over 26 miles in an hour and 12 minutes. The voyage ended when they got jammed in a Memorial Horse Trough in the third town.
The 2 beachballs were rescued by small boys but Julian spent a cold night, especially after it rained, until he was dragged free roughly by a Constable and charged with Loitering and Littering.
And to add insult to injury Julian was denied the UK Marathon record on the grounds of wind assistance.
51
Pure gold and a hard act to follow .
11
robert:
I am a bit disappointed with the response by the trolls, only one working at the week end. Makes one think that most of them are employed (I won’t say work) in the Public Service.
If they really believed that Climate Change would bring heat then they should do better than taking time off to relax.
41
Q: Why don’t civil servants look out the window in the morning?
A: Because they’d have nothing to do in the afternoon.
60
.
OUCH!
30
Lest we forget – the Victoriastan Premier who is shutting down Hazelwood and seems happy to crash the Victorian economy, is the most “enthusiastic” about lowering age of indefinite detention to 10 and increasing mass surveillance……….
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lawyers-condemn-draconian-move-to-hold-10yearold-terror-suspects-without-charge-20171007-gywaul.html
“The Turnbull government and the states and territories agreed to the new pre-charge detention regime at a meeting in Canberra this week at which Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews derided civil liberties concerns as a “luxury”.
“Those who trade freedoms for security deserve neither ”
– Benjamin Franklin
Lest we also forget :
Arbeit Macht Frei
101
I struggle in today’s world to find much difference between the way that socialists (now more marxist than ever) and those who, as you quote, coined the phrase “Arbeit Macht Frei” think or act.
51
As you know it was the Nazis who coined the phrase “work sets you free”.
20
popularised, not coined
00
Make no mistake, Deluded Dan the Premier man does not just seem happy to crash the victorian economy, he is extremely happy about it.
I imagine that, much like Adam Bandt, and Jay Weatherill, news of closing businesses, bankruptcies, and foreclosures are what gets him out of bed each day, and makes him smile in front of the cameras.
51
“Representatives from businesses, almost 100 countries and others pushed the total up to the unprecedented level…”
At last. An “unprecedented” you can believe in. Recent weather may be well and truly precedented (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRy781zose8) but green trough-swilling and carpet-bagging really are soaring to new levels.
41
Only Fairfax could come up with this pearler:
Today’s SMH web page says “Sydney’s record dry spell to continue – but rain is on the way”.
It’s like saying “If this weather continues, we’ll have some more”.
91
Their next headlines may read “More weather tomorrow” or “There will be clouds in the sky” or more daring “The sun will shine sometime”.
21
Just looking at the AEMO dashboard, looks like SA is borrowing a few electrons from the other communist state .
Also noticed one of the operators in SA were given an order to commence producing electricity so I’m thinking that would be a gas plant because not even the AEMO have power over no wind .
51
If I read this right it looks like SA dodged a blackout .
Market Notice 59373
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Direction – South Australia Region 07/10/2017
In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the South Australia region.
The direction was necessary to maintain the power system in a secure operating state.
The direction was issued at 1445 hrs 07/10/17, with effect from 1500 hrs 07/10/17. The direction is expected to stay in place until 1700 hrs 08/10/17
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
40
A bit obscure.
Who was directed? What were they paid to ensure supply?
40
All these reports are a little on the vague side , SA had a fair bit of demand on the supply and the wind dropped off so supply dropped with it , this did happen once before during another blackout when one of the gas fired units refused to start one of their generators .
Now they just order them to start by the look of it , Tony from oz might know more not sure .
30
robert rosicka:
That unit was Pelican Point No. 2 which had been shut down months before because of the SA Govt. policies. Naturally the owners hadn’t bothered ordering any gas for it as it wasn’t operating, and it has a startup time of 3.5-4 hours not the half hour given.
So they were made the scapegoat by the SA Labor Govt. to avoid scrutiny of said Govt. policies.
60
So it was basically the same as last time , they won’t learn .
10
robert rosicka:
Sorry, we were at cross purposes. Pelican Point 1 & 2 and the rest of SA’s CCGTs are running all the time. When the wind doesn’t blow then the difference is made up by imports from Victoria. As the wind picks up less is imported, and on the rare occasions when the wind is strong the electricity that is surplus is exported to Vic, probably at a loss (before subsidy).
All this presupposes that the interconnectors can carry the load, so the decision by Jay the Dill to get even more renewables means that wind farms will soon be getting shut down orders at times. Won’t that be fun!
The message from AEMO was most probably to an Open Cycle turbine to boost supply – at a cost as they are more expensive than wind and their emissions aren’t that low (unless you are Jay the Dill). And of course Jay is installing 9 more Open Cycle units so he can have more renewables but not cut emissions at all.
00
SEA LEVEL RISE – Rate is Unaffected by ‘Global Warming’ – interesting article at WUWT on sea levels changes generally and how these are measured but the most interesting part to me is in the comments section. Article is here
One comment of particular interest includes a graph from NOAA showing Fort Denison, Sydney. The graph shows that there is absolutely No Difference in sea level rise since 1855 and the claimed anthropogenic global warming has made no change whatsoever to the rate of sea level rise.
Here, without the graph which can be seen in comments to the article link above, is the comment from DaveBurton:
“Here’s a 2016 paper in Nature Climate Change, by Aimée Slangen, John Church, and four other authors, which told us when it was that anthropogenic forcings had kicked in and begun driving sea-level rise:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n7/full/nclimate2991.html
Slangen & Church were both at CSIRO (in Australia), so I annotated a NOAA graph of sea-level at Australia’s longest tide gauge, to illustrates the findings of that paper:
Now, why do you suppose they didn’t didn’t include a graph like that in their paper?”
100
OOPS …. should read “The graph shows that there is absolutely No Difference in the Rate of sea level rise since 1855 and the claimed anthropogenic global warming has made no change whatsoever to the rate of sea level rise.”
80
Yes, I read that. Most global tidal stations, recording since 1900, or before, show no increasing sea level rate that could be accounted to the rise of fossil fuels.
50
How difficult can it be?
Very difficult.
America Clean Power Plan (CPP)
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/10/05/delingpole-trump-to-repeal-and-replace-obamas-stupid-and-job-killing-clean-power-plan/
For info: Javanka = Jared Kushner (son in law) and Ivanka (daughter) of the President.
70
***don’t sign:
8 Oct: NewIndianExpress: Carbon offset scheme to clip the wings of aviation industry
By C Shivakumar
CHENNAI: Will the carbon reduction plan mooted by International Air Transport Association (IATA) strangle the Indian aviation sector? As the association is marking the first anniversary of the historic global agreement, Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), the aviation industry here ***is cautious on signing the treaty, which, while aiming to curb emissions, could have a serious impact on the sector that is waiting at the cusp of a revolution…
Under this, the average level of carbon dioxide emissions and international aviation covered between 2019 and 2020 will be taken as the base carbon neutral growth figure, against which emissions will in future be compared. It is this base year that the aviation insiders have concerns.
Consider this: In 2016, India had 100 million domestic passengers and became the third biggest market in terms of domestic passenger volume (Source: Capa Centre of Aviation, Sydney). But these figures are deceptive. Japan, which was pushed to fourth in this ranking, had 97 million passengers for a population of 127 million, while only 100 million (less than eight per cent) of Indians flew out of nearly 130 crore population. For another comparison, Heathrow airport, London, alone, had 70 million domestic passengers in 2015 (Source: Eurostat, the statistical office of EU)…
According to IATA’s own estimates, air passenger traffic in India is expected to grow to 442 million by 2035 (Source: IATA global report).
Thus, the aviation industry in the country is concerned about fixing 2019-20 as the base year, which would mean any emission over the volume recorded in that period will have to be offset. This would force airlines to invest in more efficient engines, lighter aircraft and use of bio-fuels – all of which entails substantial investment in a sector that is yet to find its feet…
While the pilot and first phases are voluntary for countries to implement, the second phase is mandatory for all, including India…
In India, where commercial airlines have registered 445 aircraft with the Directorate-General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), the sector generates less than one per cent of carbon emission, claimed industry sources…
http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/2017/oct/08/carbon-offset-scheme-to-clip-the-wings-of-aviation-industry-1668582.html
20
Dear readers, it’s about time I nail the failure of R D Cess, backed up by fallacious GISS 2d modelling by GISS in the same year, 1976, to use the right definition of emissivity, aka emittance.
What is the definition of surface emissivity?
A Combustion File downloaded from the IFRF Online Combustion Handbook ISSN 1607-9116
“The emissivity of a surface may be defined as the ratio of the radiance from the surface to that from a black body viewed under identical optical and geometrical conditions and at the same temperature.”
I’m a metallurgical engineer who has designed radiant heating furnaces. Cess’ claim that Earth’s emissivity is OLR (-18 deg C) divided by Planckian surface emissivity (15 deg C), giving rise to 40% extra atmospheric IR thermalisation and 33 K GHE is as wrong as can be imagined.
Thus the climate models are wrong from the ground up, and must be withdrawn from the literature. This is an attempt for objective science to reject the ignorant and the fraudsters who have made a corrupt living from pretending the climate models are accurate. Climate science has beeen corrupted for 40 years. There are two more major errors, including a hitherto aspect of the extinction coefficient of rain clouds missed by Hansen in 1969 and van der Hulst in 1967. I’m working on the real physics.
113
Can you explain the Real Physics?
10
OLR is defined by the end of GHG self-absorption, which altitude is seen by space as Earth’s emitting surface in each GHG IR waveband; about 20 km for 15 micron CO2.. The key to almost infinite negative feedback of CO2 warming is 16-23 micron water vapour self absorption. Its IR energy to space from the surface is the difference between a fully self-absorbed black body clamp (by mutual annihilation of opposing Maxwell equation waves in the atmosphere-surface junction, rejected by the bidirectional photon diffusion claim by Goody and Yung, which depends on assuming incorrectly a vacuum) and the non self absorbed part, in effect surface IR energy going over a spillway.. Because that 16-23 micron self absorption increases rapidly with humidity, and there is significant surface plant growth increase, the negative feedback is very high indeed. It also explains the ~2.6 km maximum height of non-convective low level clouds, easily observed with the naked eye. To their eternal shame, the cloud specialists failed to do this simple bit of observational physics.
There is also a previously unknown extinction effect increase in rain clouds because forward scattered Mie lobes are not plane waves, as assumed hitherto, significant for rain droplets at the base of thicker than average low-level cloud, the cause of the rainbow and very dark underneath convective clouds. The failure to know this means the Kirchhoff’s Law calculation, used by the Met Office to replace stupid negative convection, gives artificial positive feedback, and is being dumped.
I severely criticise the primitive ‘scientists’ who have shouted down real scientists; to be fair many of whom could also be wrong but are working to improve real, provable knowledge than simply say there can be no argument for deviation from the consensus. After all; who would have expected that climate modelling was based on Cess’ mistake, rendering IPCC climate models wrong, hence they must be withdrawn until the science is corrected. To fail to consider the possibility of such a mistake is unprofessional. The rainbow is vivid proof of my cloud research, a double rainbow taking about 6 mean free path’s illumination of large droplets It also explains Milankovitch amplification at end of ice ages and, maybe, the large eyes of Neanderthals. Climate is really controlled by tsi and geology. Caveat: I could also be wrong, but I doubt it.
12
Eyes?
Neanderthalers had very big brains compared to modern humans.
Maybe the eyes were just proportional.
00
Nope: in the icy climate with few [CCN], cloud droplets coarsen very rapidly so transmitted light was much lower than our high [CCN] climate. With short day length in winter, Neanderthal 30% larger eye plus extra brain optical processing was an evolutionary advantage.
10
Interesting.
00
Hi Turned out,
I’m a metallurgist to and am amazed that the models are considered real and functional.
As I mentioned to Will just now on another thread; no link between CO2 and atmospheric temperature means that you CANNOT model that relationship. It is so basic, how do they get away with it?
KK
41
posted about the second Green Economy Summit in Cordoba, Argentina, at comment #2, which Obama attended. shouldn’t have been surprised as its organised by the ***following:
Green Economy Summit 2017
The Summit
Our goal is to inspire and train 300 new green leaders from across the country, who are willing to convey a simple message: ¨not only does it have ethical and moral sense to bet on innovation and competitiveness, but it also makes economic sense to bet on the productive model towards a green economy; Because what is at stake is the life and future of the next generations.
Organization
***The Advanced Leadership Foundation (ALF) It is a non-profit organization, headquartered in Washington DC, committed to the identification and training of world leaders. With the firm commitment to promote sustainable development and a green economy, ALF in collaboration with the Government of the province of Córdoba, will hold the Green economy Summit 2017…
Speakers, Sponsors etc
http://cumbreeconomiaverde.org/en/
it’s full of Democrats:
***AdvancedLeadershipFoundation.org: Board of Advisors
Juan Verde Suárez, President
Mr. Verde has extensive experience in the political world, having worked on 14 different local, regional and national campaigns, including those of President Barack Obama, President Bill Clinton, Vice President Al Gore, and Senators Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton…
Michael Dukakis
Dukakis won the Democratic nomination for the Presidency in 1988 but was defeated by George H.W. Bush…
Francisco Sánchez
Francisco J. Sánchez served as Under Secretary for International Trade at the U.S. Department of Commerce, a post he was appointed to by President Barack Obama in 2009 until 2013…ETC
COMING UP, THE FOURTH WGES IN DUBAI, ANOTHER MASSIVE TALKFEST:
World Green Economy Summit 2017
24-25 October 2017 – Dubai, UAE
The fourth cycle of WGES is timely, particularly as the world is facing the threat of climate change and the increasing need to move to green economy. WGES 2017 shares the same values with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris Climate Agreement 2015, COP22 in Marrakech, the upcoming COP23 in Bonn and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. Supported by many international organisations such as The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), WGES aims to create a sustainable future for the current and future generations.
Speakers includes:
David de Rothschild, Environmentalist and Explorer, United States of America, Keynote Speaker
Axel Threlfall, Editor-at-Large, Reuters United Kingdom, Moderator
Yvo De Boer, Partner, SRI Executive Netherlands, Moderator
Zoë Knight, Managing Director and Group Head, HSBC Centre of Sustainable Finance United Kingdom, Panellist…ETC ETC
http://www.wges.ae/speakers/
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Cuurently there’s an add floating around the Internet. I saw it just now for the umpteenth time on no other that Andrew Bolt’s site.
It runs the “come-on”:
Are Solar Panels Worth it?
By an ex-CSIRO engineer.
It takes you to this site:
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/top7mistakes.html?gclid=CLX5yv-D4dYCFZ4KKgod4q0Bpw
Read it and laugh.
Or cry.
Two conclusions:
1. If the “ex-Scientist” that it references is an example of the quality of the rest of CSIRO’s research, it explains why CSIRO has been such a failed institution since Nevile Wran took over the Chairmanship and turned it into a left-wing socialist sheltered workshop. The “ex-Scientist’s” financial analysis is symptomatic of the juvenile grasp of economics that the socialist-left have in Australia.
2. The legislative protections for False Advertising are not working in Australia. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is again asleep at the wheel. The Turnbull Liberal Government is as incompetent as those we suffered under in the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years.
101
Rarely do solar salesman include the financing cost and the need to write the equipment off in their sales pitch.
50
Dennis there are a lot of things they don’t say when spruiking their panels ,as I’ve found out you’re just robbing the poor to subsidise your panels .
To know this before hand and still go through with it shows your morals.
40
Obama in Argentina for green energy summit…
https://www.google.com/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4958914/amp/Obama-takes-golf-course-Argentine-President-Macri.html
More here:
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentina-Obama-Plays-Golf-with-M…
The two are expected to discuss “informally and privately” the link between both countries and the challenge ahead now that Argentina will hold the presidency of the G20, according to the government.
30
More here:
http://www.thebubble.com/obama-is-in-argentina-for-the-green-economy-summit/
30
Oh Bummer plays a lot of golf.
He may become the intercourse champion.
20
The “intercourse” champion
I think you are talking about Pres. Bill Clinton or is it Pres. Jack Kennedy?
10
Interview with Professor Plimer on Sky last night, and this website was given publicity.
50
Depending on the definition
https://rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/06/a-presumption-of-guilt/
20
‘Regional voters are abandoning Malcolm Turnbull with a new analysis showing Labor has gained the upper hand outside the capital cities for the first time since the last election. An analysis of Newspoll results by The Australian today shows support for the Coalition in the regions has dropped from 44 to 34 per cent since last year’s federal election.’
Oz
60
The LNP will make the mistake (again) and think the border protection issue will save them. It won’t. There are enough LNP supporters out there to cause a major earthquake for the LNP. The LNP won’t know what hit them. The reasons are varied but they all have a common theme. The LNP has shifted too far to the left on almost all issues. That makes LNP supporters angry and many if not most will place their vote elsewhere. Depending on their preference voting, the LNP should not only lose the next election but lose it by a landslide. Also any hope of compensation by way of Labor voters deciding to vote for the LNP is just pure wishful thinking. To think that enough Labor voters would vote for the other side just because they moved to the left is delusional. Although the ALP will be a disaster for us I welcome the destruction of the LNP for turning its back on the nation and effectively leading us to the same place anyway. If we are to be driven over the cliff then lets do it honestly and not through some fake party.
60
My hope is that true conservative parties will hold the balance in the Senate and that what remains of the LNP will finally have the guts to be conservative a well.
Might be the only thing that can save Australia from the ravages of a far-left union driven Labor socialist totalitarian ideology.
50
Let’s hope so. For starters Turnbull and most of his supporters will have to go. That would be a major upset in the LNP, so much so it might as well rename itself to break away from the stigma left behind by Turnbull. He undoubtedly has done more harm to the LNP than Rudd and Gillard combined did to the ALP. It might not be seen that way at the moment by most people but give it time it will be. Of course there is another scenario, which is actually worse. ALP wins the next election then people wake up and boot them out in the election after that only to have the LNP like it is now returned with someone much like Turnbull, if not himself. That would be like shooting yourself in the head twice.
10
“That would be like shooting yourself in the head twice.”
Welcome to Australia. !!!
20
.
“That would be like shooting yourself in the head twice.”
.
Yeh! He missed the vital bits the first time because they are so small and hard to find!
10
‘….think the border protection issue will save them. It won’t.’
Securing the borders has been fixed, the LNP need to begin infrastructure building in the regions. This single issue, which Labor is exploiting with their intention of joining Beijing’s Belt and Road, is enough to get them over the line comfortably.
00
Interesting comment Peters.
As an ex liberal supporter, there is, I agree, widespread disgust among coalition supporters. However, I am not sure that that disgust will manifest itself in extra support for the Labor Party. I am more inclined to think that the beneficiaries will be the minor parties, such as the Shooters and Fishers, and the informal votes dustbin.
There is no doubt that the coalition does not deserve support.
I believe that there is an urgent need for a new political party that is prepared to stand up and face down the climate scam and the evil that goes with it.
30
‘I am not sure that that disgust will manifest itself in extra support for the Labor Party.’
Yeah but I don’t see the fringe parties increasing their numbers, its all about which of the majors join the belt and road. The Americans have told Talcum not to sign up, but the Kiwis are already in the loop and its only a matter of time for Oz.
Ultimately this will have strategic implications.
10
Support for both major sides has fallen from the long term average of 80 per cent of the vote to now 60 per cent.
Former PM Howard made this observation recently. So there are swing voters who change sides within the new 60 per cent but clearly a significant 20 per cent more of voters have no intention to support the majors at the next election.
00
A cooling sign in the USA https://realclimatescience.com/2017/10/shortest-summer-on-record-in-colorado/#comments
( I don’t recall the details of David & Jo’s bet —but from what I recall crunch time cannot be far away. Good Luck !!)
20
Another regional cooling signal, 2017 is the start date and within three years the world will be awash with negative feedbacks.
20
Using info gained some months back from this great blog/site, a few days ago I asked a couple of Victorian MP’s did they know that so called wind turbines cannot make a ”black start ”,that is start up by themselves from dead stopped.Suprise, suprise these people who make decisions on our behalf did not know that important information.
50
I thought that was the intention of the solar panels being pushed so hard. You would have power to turn over the turbines and have the necessary frequency reference, etc. But of course, that wouldn’t be a “black” start would it. You would need daylight and it would be called a “white” start.
30
Solar Powered Wind Turbines. Two models available:-
The White. Entry level economy model
OR
The Black. As per The White but fitted with the latest Tesla Battery Pack.
Guaranteed start anytime, every time*. Metallic black finish.
*Conditions apply. See PDF for details.
40
They will all have diesel generators to cover this problem. It’s only money!!
30
the Vesey pic accompanying this piece looks like he’s thinking, if you believe this…
7 Oct: Australian: Matt Chambers: AGL says Hazelwood closure changed everything
AGL Energy says a 2015 deal to effectively supply Bass Strait gas to the Santos-led Gladstone LNG project was made because it did not foresee the extent of a domestic shortfall that now has the company studying plans to import gas to Victoria…
AGL says the deal is costing it profits and has meant its domestic customers have not been able to renew contracts.
It also appears to have contributed to a tight southern gas market that AGL now says it wants to bring more competition to, by building a $250 million LNG import terminal in Victoria.
In a blog posting yesterday, AGL said it would have been unlikely to strike the GLNG deal had it known the Hazelwood power station was going to close, or that ExxonMobil was planning to slash Bass Strait production next year…READ ALL
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/agl-says-hazelwood-closure-changed-everything/news-story/5db63f57bfb6280607167d153f49bb6e
10
8 Oct: Daily Telegraph: KYLAR LOUSSIKIAN: Energy crisis: AGL knew about looming gas shortage
EMBATTLED energy giant AGL was warned of a potential major gas shortage years ago despite claiming it could not see the coming squeeze when it decided to sell $2 billion of gas overseas rather than to local buyers.
But The Daily Telegraph can reveal senior figures at the company repeatedly warned there would be a massive shortfall starting almost two years before AGL struck its deal to export the gas…
Liberal MP Craig Kelly said it was “another example of AGL speaking with a forked tongue”. But an AGL spokeswoman said “while AGL had forecast there could be a shortfall, we had adequate gas to meet the needs of our customers until … Hazelwood closed suddenly” and there was less supply than expected from the Longford gas plant…READ ALL
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/energy-crisis-agl-knew-about-looming-gas-shortage/news-story/bf2db55f99eae5fecfddd6af2ea9ddda
10
When debating Leftists / anti-scientists we conservatives often make the mistake of assuming there must be some underlying logic to their case. That is rarely if ever the case and they even look over their own internal inconsistencies and contradictions.
So just be aware, don’t get frustrated by assuming there is logic to their case.
20
How ridiculous
10
much being made of this maybe one day story:
9 Oct: news.com.au: Josh Frydenberg hints government set to drop Clean Energy Target
Frydenberg: “Should reliability and affordability be compromised, public support for tackling climate change will quickly diminish and previous gains lost.”…
http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/josh-frydenberg-hints-government-set-to-drop-clean-energy-target/news-story/4ebcf53f58c92e660f16a41bee6efc84
Australian’s url suggests Labor hijacked the headline. begins with easily-understood, tho deceptive, political rhetoric from Shorten, ends with Finkel case for a Clean Energy Target.
in the middle is Frydenberg speaking what to most people will sound like endless gibberish. too depressing to excerpt, comments are better:
9 Oct: Australian: Rachel Baxendale: Labor stands by renewable energy target
Shorten: “It is a simple choice that Mr Turnbull faces. Work with Labor to deliver a clean energy target that is meaningful, or lock in higher power bills for businesses and families.”…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/josh-frydenberg-set-to-dump-clean-energy-target/news-story/1907744fcc26ed4cf113b59314c33406
10
Can’t for the life of me understand how that ended up in moderation. Will try again.
Lisa Singh has an article in the Mercury today.
MS Singh is an ALP senator.
It would be nice if someone from this blog could make a comment.
Thanks.
[My apologies Rod. I have no idea why this kept on falling into the moderation queue.] Fly
10
Paywalled but what was she saying ? The usual blurb from the labs or has she gone to the dark side .
10
I give up. What triggers moderation?
[If you figure that out, please let me know. The engine has a mind of its own] Fly
30
This fake news about the CET I think is the media’s way of ensuring the govt stick to and increase the CET , policy by media .
30
robert rosicka –
undoubtedly.
check the photo behind the audio at theirABC. clues: chimneys, smoke.
no heart in the rubbish the Coalition have to say…and no sense either.
AUDIO: 4mins20secs: 9 Oct: ABC The World Today: Signs Govt is preparing to abandon Clean Energy Target
By Tom Iggulden
The Prime Minister has refused to endorse the proposal for a Clean Energy Target that the Government has been considering, leading to speculation it’s about to walk away from the plan.
That speculation has been further driven by the Energy Minister emphasising the falling cost of renewable energy, appearing to suggest the Government is not of a mind to subsidise renewables after the Renewable Energy Target comes to an end in 2020.
Featured:
Malcolm Turnbull, Prime Minister
Josh Frydenberg, Energy Minister
Bill Shorten, Opposition Leader
Alan Finkel, Chief Scientist
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/signs-govt-is-preparing-to-abandon-clean-energy-target/9030238
30
and another:
AUDIO: 4mins19secs: 9 Oct: ABC The World Today: “Delay is no friend to the consumer of energy in Australia” says Australian Energy Council CEO
By Penny Timms
Energy leaders are calling for the development of an energy policy in Australia, to help encourage investment in the sector.
They say it’s one of the few ways the nation’s power supply can be secured for the future, and lead to ***a price drop.
Featured:
Andrew Vesey, CEO, AGL.
Matthew Warren, CEO, Australian Energy Council
Andrew Stock, councillor, Climate Council
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/delay-is-no-friend-to-the-consumer-of-energy-in-australia/9030244
Andrew Stock of the Climate Council gets the final word, naturally, and it includes: “let’s recognise that fossil fuel technologies are obsolete; they’re expensive and unreliable” blah blah…
40
How can he get away with a blatantly false comment like that?
40
With all those randomly placed smokestacks it looks more like an industrial plant than a power station which would tend to have evenly placed smokestacks in a straight line.
30
Not sure who I was just listening to on their ABC but there are two types of electricity user .
The disadvantaged
The advantaged
The disengaged
The engaged
Glad they cleared that up for me , just not quite sure which one of the “two” I am .
30
Have you seen this Government propaganda site?
https://poweringforward.energy.gov.au/
20
No not till now David and you’re right about the propaganda which leaves me to think they won’t repeal the cet .
10
End of the ski season , best season for nearly twenty years , hottest evah winter , driest evah winter , is it just me or is something wrong here ?
30
This has nothing to do with current topics of discussion but every now and then AOL comes up with something compelling, at least to me. And this is one of those things.
Apparently there is more and stronger evidence of water on Mars and although it may be a stretch to assume life ever existed there I found this very compelling.
If you’re like me, things like this get your attention for one reason or another, call it plain old curiosity in my case.
20
It’s a shame they don’t give more of the meat and potatoes of this discovery but AOL unfortunately is more interested in the spectacular than in the details.
10
I don’t care what you say Roy, you won’t get me on Elon Musks proposed ship to Mars.
KK
20
I’ve good news for you, Keith. You won’t get me on that ship either. In space you can’t call the Auto Club to come save you if everything — for that matter, anything — goes south and leaves you up the creek. A flat tire is as fatal as a head on collision out there where no one will mount a rescue mission.
I was all gungho for space flight as a young guy but life tends to teach you that you’re not invincible and life means too much to risk it all on, as John Glen said, something made by the lowest bidder.
I’m very happy to learn by remote control from millions of miles away in the safety of home.
00
I notice that next year is the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the IPCC. Not a lot of climate change since – time to shut up shop, perhaps?
Ditto the ‘Skeptical Science’ website – there aren’t many posts from the public on their site these days, Isn’t this telling them something? Nevertheless they plod on.
10
Perhaps the answer as to why is found in what I’ve noticed numerous times, nothing stays around longer than a bad idea.
And I just had a fiendish thought. Do you suppose John Cook and the IPCC have some sort of business arrangement whereby Cook sells the IPCC’s nonsense as if it was solid gold and the IPCC pays him to do it.
Naw, not very likely but it is an intriguing thought…
00