JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
UK flooding, BBC reports it’s ‘definitely unprecedented’. Urrrrmmmm okay.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyprxyw8rlo.amp
Maybe not.
https://www.jstor.org/page-scan-delivery/get-page-scan/1568771/0
As this lady says in so many words, before ‘climate change’, we just brushed ourselves down and carried on.
https://youtu.be/IY9J5CJUaFE
140
The next lot that comes down could be white.
An above average year for NH heat advection. A watery start in lower altitude and lower latitudes that will be followed by more white stuff.
High altitudes already setting daily record snowfall.
This week should be a test of the modern wind powered UK grid.
130
You gotta laugh, they’re already warning of cold deaths from 5 days of unexceptional slightly chilly weather. We’re talking maximums in the 5 to 8C range and a slight night frost for 95% of people. Warming up again at the weekend. Any wintery precipitation won’t hang around long and will be mostly at high elevations.
Can’t see it being much trouble for the grid, especially as it’s not going to be windless.
60
Today in Yakutsk (capital of Siberia, population 356,000), max temp is forecast to be -34C. It was about the same yesterday, and the day before. Also most of last week.
Nobody died from the cold. People went to work. Or chopped wood. Shops were busy.
110
Rick do you have a graph for Sun Position Z-Axis (ICRF) from 1800 to 1900?
I’m interested in the Dalton Minimum, also the LIA came to an end around 1900 in the Southern Hemisphere. We should be able to see examples of solar forcing.
11
I had to make a chart:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A9OCIVmAK_uQxQI0OGWvjAQyCsDkC6NT/view?usp=sharing
The solar intensity is not always perfectly timed with the peaks and troughs of the Z-axis motion but they are usually not far off.
This data comes from JPL Horizons and I am not yet convinced that they have the position and velocity of the Sun perfectly correct. They should have the planetary positions close because they are more readily observed. Hoeve getting the position of the sun relative to the barycentre when the barycentre is often within the perimeter of the Sun is not that easy. Also assessing the velocity of an object the size of the Sun that is moves between a brisk walk for a human and sprint pace is challenging.
The Z-axis motion relative to Earth’s elliptic occurs because the Sun moves primarily in Jupiter’s elliptic plane, which has about a 2 degree tilt relative to Earth’s elliptic.
It also happens that northern excursions tend to occur around the September equinox and southern excisions around the March equinox. So the motion has a larger impact during the heating seasons in both hemisphere.
The two most recent northern excursion were 1998 and 2024. There was a southern excursion in 2015. The global temperature responds more to northern excursion than southern excursion but the latter probably influences El Ninos.
There is a lot going on with the Sun and Earth orbits. The Z-axis is one of the more influential over short periods. But you need to look at the full picture to get a true understanding of the solar forcing.
I am working toward long range weather forecasting that will be meaningful.
My target before I burn up is to home in on the timing of key events leading to re-glaciation of the NH. Based on previous interglacials, this one is on borrowed time but I can see the ducks lining up.
50
Thanks.
I see the Dalton Minimum and the devastating late 1870s. The El Nino connection is interesting.
00
My latest COP 30 coverage:
COP30 is the world’s biggest trade show
https://www.cfact.org/2025/11/17/cop-30-is-the-worlds-biggest-trade-show/
The beginning: “The vast majority of the tens of thousands of people attending COP30 are there to sell and buy stuff, including oil, natural gas, and even coal. Climate policy has little to do with it. This is by far the world’s biggest trade show, with almost every country represented. There is nothing else like it. Pre-registration for COP30 is around 56,000, the second highest in COP history. Total attendance might be 70,000 or more. The press often talks as though all these people are somehow involved in the climate deliberations, but that is wildly false.”
Lots more in the article.
151
Solar Citizens (Australia) have a team there. They are mostly sponsored by firms selling solar systems and gas conversions in Australia. As far as I know they do not manufacture much but I think firms like Alpha ESS use Australian system integration or evebnassemmbly of Chinese made cells and electronics.
https://www.solarcitizens.org.au/cop30_australia_urged_to_double_rooftop_solar_by_2035
Belém, Brazil — Thursday 13 November 2025
At the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in Belém, Solar Citizens today launched the Rooftop Solar Pledge, calling on the Australian Federal Government to double rooftop solar capacity to 54 gigawatts by 2035, backed by battery storage.
Subsidised firmed rooftop solar is now much lower cost than grid retail price. About 50% of Australian households have little to no direct exposure to grid prices. And the majority do not understand that unsubsidised firmed grid solar is around 10 times the cost of lignite fired generators that industry used to enjoy. Excess rooftop energy flooding the grid has destroyed the economics of coal generation.
Australia is well on the way to complete de-industrialisation.
130
To put that 54GW into perspective, the peak demand in the NEM yesterday was 28GW. 11GW from rooftops and 7GW from coal plants at that point.
So rooftops will have the capacity to obliterate grid demand for quite a few hours every day. All of Australia is headed for retail prices well above 50c/kWh as the add-ons to the grid necessarily rise astronomically to cope with the daily burst of rooftop solar.
91
I wonder how long before solar panels will become a standard option for new roofs.
Properly designed it might win the market before some government idiot makes it compulsory,
For instance, convectional water circulation might be integrated into the solar panels, cooling them and volumes under them down.
10
If I was looking at rooftop solar as a serious source of electricity in Australia, I would be aiming to tilt them to maximise winter collection. That would require the roofing system to be tested for wind loading or raking the roofs to the preferred angle on the north facing portion. The north facing walls of buildings could have panes mounted at optimum angle in unshaded portions.
One advantage of tilting panels is that increases immunity to hail damage.
Doing this would recognise rooftop as an engineered part of the grid, which is happening by stealth. Mainly because it is infinitely easier to install rooftop solar and battery than have to go through the environmental and firstpeoples hurdles to build utility scale solar and then connect it to the grid. And of course the load is usually under the roof so rooftop has guaranteed access to the demand. Something that grid WDGs were happy to impose on coal generators but they now suffer from that issue. And they are not essemtial generators so have had their day. None will be replaced. Any now being built is akin to flushing money down the toilet.
10
The problem with fixed panels is not so much the winter alignment, it’s the summer one. If you tilt the panels to be exactly 90 degrees to the midday sun in winter, then in summer, the sun will be 47 degrees off alignment at midday. So what you might think, the summer days are longer. Well consider this…
In the southern hemisphere, as the date approaches the summer solstice, the sun rises and sets well to the south of a line due east/west. If your panels are hugging the roof they will be shaded by the roof and will not be illuminated till the sun goes north of the east/west line. For some installations, especially in December and January, the sun will not be on the panels till 10:00am and will be again behind the panels at 5:00PM.
Using those ‘short’ days, and with the panels inclined for winter, the sun light collected from the panels could well be below the amount collected in winter, when the sun would be striking the panels at the optimum alignment.
Give it a go for yourself, just enter your address/town into the box onthe upper left of the page. And adjust the date in the adjacent fields. Move the sun/time in the bar at the top of the page to see the sun angles change throughout the day.
https://www.suncalc.org/#/-36.3609,146.3138,10/2025.12.23/16:50/1/3
40
That’s quite an astounding program- We get 10hours sunlight in winter, 14hours in summer, so aiming the solar panels makes quite a difference.
10
I’ve got about 30% facing east, 40% facing west and the balance to the north, (for a southern hemisphere installation).
It seems to work for me, I’ve also got the luxury of having shade provided only by assets that I control, eg no tall trees on a neighbours property, etc.
At this time of year I get the batteries fully charged by 9:00am, whereas the north facing panels are not even in direct sunlight at that time. And during the evening peak, around 6 till 7 PM, I’m still receiving solar energy and the batteries are full, even after the dishwasher has finished its wash cycle. Had I just had north facing panels, then the sun would have effectively set by a little after 4 pm where I am, (the panels face about 10 degrees east of north).
So yes, aiming panels makes all the difference.
30
Rooftops in Australia averaged 3347MW in December 2024. They only managed average of 1248MW in June 2024. As you can observe here.
The objective is to even it out rather than maximising collection. Those in Northern Qld may want more output for air-conditioning but they would probably benefit from tilted panels for hail protection in places like Brisbane.
The time of sunlight is longer in summer and that is a significant factor the almost 3X summer sunlight. The grid would be better served by solar.battery that maintains close to steady average of 2300MW than the present 3347 summer and 1248 winter.
If it gets doubled to 54GW then there will be a lot more summer curtailment. It makes sense to even it out.
00
Surely depends on where you are located. In sunnier states, where winter warmth is rarely required but air conditioning is on most of the summer, surely it’s better to obtain max output during summer, not winter.
10
Whereas along the southern coast, I can insulate to minimize the summer heating effect and remain comfortable without a/c.
In winter even with insulation additional heat inputs are required to remain comfortable even with that insulation.
10
Following rooflines in the tropics would be better for air-conditioning bercause that is also a time of highest demand.
So locations where there is no requirement for heating would be better served with just following roof lines.
10
This afternoon, Victoriastan may have a new “Opposition” “Leader” as Brad Battin’s position is challenged.
50
It’s happened. Jess Wilson new Vic Liberal leader. And it also looks like there may be a Liberal leadership challenge in NSW. Fun and games today…
40
Ahhhh but will it make any difference to the narratives. No!!
There is 99%. Confusion at the moment & nobody can identify the cause & there’s even more confusion about what the confusion is. I. Not making sense am I.
I’m not on my own & neither are you the good followers of this blog.
After all the “ leaders are more confused than we the potential voters!😵💫😵💫😵💫😵💫
90
Don’t get excited DM, she supported the Voice and believes in the treaty. She’s a woke millennial with very little real life experience. I’m expecting Labor to be in government for at leat 2 more terms.
120
In Australia we have become used to low and rapidly dropping expectations of the competence of government.
140
Someone must’ve been scraping the dregs of the barrel as, scrolling through radio stations this morning trying to find a station NOT pumping out Belem BS or computer pop ‘music’, the snarky tones of your ex-PM Malcolm Trumbull [sic] slithered across the airwaves.
Before I could flick the OFF button, he’d spouted the *D* word enough times to rank him amongst the most mental of fundamentalists. What he’s doing over here in NZ this week is anyone’s guess, though he is friends with some of our (mutually dodgy) high-rolling bankers.
*D* = a river in Egypt.
150
Ha, ha.
Der Nile.
70
FWIW
“Silver Market Troubles – LBMA, Backwardation & More”
“Will it be managed and manageable? Well, it is manageable, but it will only be managed if the Idiots In Charge get a LOT more whacks with the Clue Stick and start making better decisions based on economics and technology and fewer (preferably none) based on “narratives” and “politically correct” crap. I don’t expect them to do this until it is too late, and then they will do it badly.
Hopefully somewhere in the western USA, or South America there’s a mothballed copper refinery that can be started up again… and enough demand for copper, lead & zinc to support it.”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2025/11/17/silver-market-troubles-lbma-backwardation-more/
11
FWIW
“Ocean Rises, Science Sinks”
“Ever wondered how a tiny rise in sea level—let’s say, the aquatic equivalent of topping up your birdbath—might be responsible for frigid winters rampaging through East Asia? No? Well, Nature Communications thinks you should, in an article yclept “Intensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise“.
Here’s their premise, as bold as a flashing warning sign on your grandma’s thermostat: A global mean sea-level rise of 15–30 cm can intensify extreme cold events in East Asia, thanks to a retooled atmospheric circulatory engine, weakening westerlies, and powered-up blocking episodes.
Mind you, this is not about that old chestnut, Arctic amplification or vanishing sea ice; it’s the earth-modeling equivalent of arguing that rearranging the living room somehow makes next winter’s snow deeper.
So, how did we get here?”
Willis E. lifts another lid
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/17/ocean-rises-science-sinks/
10
FWIW
“New York At The Green Energy Wall — What Is The Exit Strategy?”
“Our legislators, innumerate to a person, had bought into the fantasy — peddled by lightweight academics like Mark Jacobson and Robert Howarth, and by grifting promoters like the American Wind Energy Association and investment bank Lazard — that wind and solar were now the cheapest way to make electricity. To abolish the evil fossil fuels, all that was needed was some political will.”
More at
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/17/new-york-at-the-green-energy-wall-what-is-the-exit-strategy/
10
Concludes
“But what is the exit strategy? Will they soon start spending $42 billion per year on a crash emissions reduction program that still will clearly be insufficient to meet the ridiculous mandates of the CLCPA? Or will they ask the state Legislature to revise the statute? The second option will bring a huge outcry from the dominant progressive group in the Legislature and their environmentalist backers, all of whom are convinced (without ever having done serious analysis) that wind and solar are cheaper than fossil fuels and only corrupt influence from oil and gas interests is preventing the energy transition.
Maybe they postpone the deadlines for a year or two. But when the year or two is up, the problem will be back bigger than ever.
There is no graceful exit strategy. The CLCPA will inevitably be abandoned. Exactly when or how, I don’t know, but it will happen.”
“B(l)owen in the wind”
10
This analysis cant really be completed without consideration of the electoral cycles in the regions concerned. If promoting fantasy (even if totally destructive) will get the incumbents over the line , that is the way forward. Dealing with reality will be a matter of pearl clutching, finger pointing and something about Russia but thats post election. NYCs new mayor is a working example.
10
“(Bowen) said on Saturday at Sydney airport that many of Australia’s allies and all members of its UN group – known as Western European and Others Group – backed the bid.
“The situation remains that Australia has the overwhelming support of the world to host COP31,””
So there ya go! It hasn’t overwhelmed Turkey…
‘The World’ is a handful of Western countries and not the other 3/4s of the Earth’s population! Maybe the UN should be run by voting according to a country’s population, and lets see what China, India, and America can come up with…
70
Just tell the organisers they can use toilet paper in Adelaide, winner!!
Oh, and tell SA Water to get ready.
40
“Ley spent her day in back-to-back interviews.. appearing to back away from support for new coal-fired power stations after conceding to ABC’s 730 that coal was “highly unlikely” to stack up as economically viable…telling ABC’s 730 that “we won’t be building coal-fired power stations, and there are no proposals for new coal, recognising that existing coal assets are being kept open for longer.”
So they’re still not worth voting for!
https://www.smh.com.au/
180
Yep, wishy washy.
I hope the moderates give her the flick and endorse Hastie for leadership.
121
I have known that for years now. Howard set up the legislation that enabled this destruction.
Abbott made an attempt to undo the damage but once he departed, it was a lost cause. Probably the biggest climate scammer in Australia as PM was not going to take Australia in the right direction.
There needs to be a completely new broom and it looks like One Nation is stepping up. Any existing LNP politician who wants to be relevant needs to get on the One Nation band wagon.
130
Yes, I saw some of that interview. It was painful to watch, not because Sarah Ferguson was aggressively questioning poor Sussan, but because Sussan spent the interview desperately looking for a fence to sit on.
When asked if the Libs would build a new coal fired power station, all she had to say was; if it is needed, Yes. But that was a step too far.
100
‘So they’re still not worth voting for!’
Not at the moment.
‘Liberal climate retreat equals net zero gain of seats.
‘The Coalition’s climate and energy policy backflip will do nothing to help it win back teal seats needed to win government.’ (Oz)
41
Their current policy will lead to a loss of seats. And then after the election they’ll get back on the horse and say, “Told ya, dropping nett zero was the wrong thing to do”. Of course, they’ll never mention that they never really gave up, they just reworded the plan to make the envelopes full of cash last that little bit longer.
My observations indicate that anything that lowers the cost of electricity will be a winner. Next year we might be saying, “anything that avoids blackouts”.
The current road only has one outcome, and it doesn’t involve a domestic manufacturing base, nor low costs.
At least we have the NDIS to keep everybody employed. /s
20
My main concern is that real (like – statewide…) blackouts will NOT occur before next federal election.
Which will give the cultists 4 more years to fully dismantle Gas cooking and heating in Victoria .
I can not guess how many years and $$ it will require to recreate our Gas network when the kW rationing begins.
On the other hand, there are written off Russian subs on the market, half a dozen permanently parked inside Port Philip Bay may help to charge our emergency trucks.
40
Sounds like a suicide note.
They’re hell bent on destruction, eh.
Will Pauline be our saviour?
20
FWIW
A look at
“Hate”
“What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word,
As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee.
Save that quote as we’ll return to it before this is over. For now let’s look at two other observations on hatred. In The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, Heinlein says it is easier to get people to hate than to love. Easier to get them to hate the enemy than to love their country (or their ideas, or their future. Or whatever.) As we know this is correct, because the left has run on it for centuries.
Rogers and Hammerstein, who could write great songs but were no political philosophers, on the other hand, thought that hatred had to be carefully taught. This is … what’s that word? Oh, yeah: Idiotic. Humans hate as easily as they love. Both are part of the same thing: of being social apes who defend their own and protect against the enemy.
If you want to know Europe’s geography of hatred look to the borders. Where countries meet, there are battle lines, fought out and back and forth over time. And there are proverbs “From Portugal neither good demons nor good matrimony” “From Spain neither good wind nor good marriage.” Every border in Europe. (And I’ll admit that finding myself in the middle of a group of Spanish speakers makes my blood pressure rise. I think it’s because it’s so similar and yet not and I don’t understand all of it, which spikes the anxiety. This is made worse by Castellano which hisses. Look, I grew up with cats.)
Hatred like love requires proximity and pervasiveness, and that you KNOW the other people. This is why, btw, the program that I first came here under as an exchange student could only be started by Americans. Because it assumes knowing the other better causes you to love them. It’s …. not right. It’s easier to hate them, particularly if they’re similar enough to annoy you because they’re not right.”
More at
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2025/11/17/hate-2/
11
I should have mentioned that Sarah Hoyt grew up in Portugal
10
FWIW
“Oversight Committee Drops Epstein- Hoax Thread FULL of Receipts Democrats Do NOT Want You to See and DAMN”
https://twitchy.com/samj/2025/11/17/oversight-committee-drops-thread-full-of-epstein-hoax-receipts-democrats-do-not-want-you-to-see-n2421786
40
Just Spill the Beans Already
James Howard Kunstler
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQcqtXvtSGRLmmLKbGzkdSpPchQ
40
Considering Epstein is no longer around to speak for himself, this is as close to the horse’s mouth as you can get:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1GbVFCkTqM
It eventually gets to an insightful interview with Epsein’s lawyer who also defended Trump over the years.
I think Andrew is the only big name who has fallen.
Trump is just a wonderful human being who has ended up on the side of politics that is mostly above dirty tactics. It took him 4 years to plumb the depths of the swamp he had entered and managed to come out of that with renewed drive that was steeled by dodging an assassin’s bullet.
40
FWIW – a word for the day
“Anarchotyranny
is where the same state that allows homeless vagrants to use heroin while sprawled out on the public streets also monitors your trash to make sure the plastic bottles are in the right can”
https://x.com/TAmTrib/status/1990465959358804044
Via https://instapundit.com/757215/#disqus_thread
80
Also a world where junkies can shoot-up or sniff cocaine, heroin and fentanyl outside a school, while a qualified doctor just one street away is raided and her stock of Ivermectin is confiscated.
120
an excellent contrast
One the topic of ridiculousness , it was noted yesterday that some you violent offenders from VIC were give a nice Gold Coast holiday as part of their rehabilitation. So if you get that for some car jackings and aggravated burgs , maybe an overseas trip GBH or murder?
The justice system in VIC is completely screwed in the head it seems
90
New gas discovery in the Otway basin:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ConocoPhillips-Hits-New-Gas-Discovery-in-Australias-Otway-Basin.html
Could actually make something of this if they move fast enough while Trump is still POTUS. But a US company trying to commercialise gas in Victoria will tread a difficult path.
I wonder what tribe has rights over the Otway basin.
And of course the UN will do all they can to prevent this. It is only days away from the proponents of these projects asking them how much they want to give the project their blessing. If they cannot get a legitimate framework for taxing global citizens like the shipping tax then they will be trying to do under the table deals. For a modest fee they will greenwash the development.
70
When you think about the effort of Climate Change™ scammers to tar every denier as an ExxonMobil useful idiot, maybe they are giving a hint to the oil industry.
20
Maybe they could eventually ship the gas to Melbourne and fire up both Newport and Laverton gas powered generators. Sunday I was passenger as we drove back from Melbourne to home, over the West Gate Bridge. So could get a good look at the Newport power station ( gas ). It’s idle and has been for years. Its output is rated at 500MW and instead the government are subsidising wind and solar generation. The stupidity of that is quite remarkable when Australia is 3rd largest gas exporter in the whole world. Plus we know we have ample reserves in Victoria, as you have pointed out. In addition there is also the Laverton Power station, also gas powered. Collectively with Newport that’s 650 MW capacity going to waste. I know you love your solar panels, but none of them would be needed and certainly the government shouldn’t be paying people subsidies to install them. Nearly all the AI centres being proposed in the USA will be running on gas generated electricity. None will use renewables- they’re not silly. One state Pennsylvania will have around $90b (USD) invested in that tech. One state!!
100
For those interested
1) Pre-drill Prognosis
“Essington-1 is targeting a combined ~262 Bcf1,2
mean prospective resource in the Waarre C
and Waarre A reservoirs, both supported by Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators (DHIs)*.”
* Tilted fault block with distinct ‘flat spot’ (gas-water contact.)- my comment
2a) Post Drill
“The preliminary results from the Essington-1 exploration well reveal substantial hydrocarbon columns across two distinct geological formations, suggesting a multi-zone discovery with enhanced development optionality.
Reservoir Zone Gross Column (m), Status, Commercial Priority
Waarre A, 62.6, Primary target, High;
Waarre C, 33.2, Secondary target. Moderate”
2a) Flow rate testing yet to be done. But, the Waarre sandstones have generally good porosities (up to 25%) and permeabilities (3300 mD.) So very promising.
40
The Australian today
“In line with global shift, Coalition calls out green fantasy
Higher prices, higher unemployment, industry deserting Australia … the Opposition can win this debate, but it has to campaign hard and negative to make reality figure in the country’s energy defence.
But only if they dislodge themselves from the defence of a Labor lite program and start spruiking in favour of the majority of realists. The trouble is they can’t see past their egos and cowardice and tremble at the thought of possibly losing seats to PHON
91
More gaslighting by the UK’s Daily Mail. A Labour minister has claimed that she is regularly called a “f****ing paki” in the street. I commented that I do not believe that for one moment. Regularly? No way. Besides, I pointed out that, for most white Brits, a person from Pakistan is indistinguishable from those from India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka. Unless she wears a badge, nobody would know. Nah, I don’t buy it, especially coming from a left wing politician.
Needless to say, the comment wasn’t published.
101
People from Sri Lanka are generally much darker than people from Pakistan or Bangladesh, quite obviously so, although I’m not so sure regarding people of Tamil origin.
10
FWIW
Understand!
“COP30 is the world’s biggest trade show”
“The vast majority of the tens of thousands of people attending COP30 are there to sell and buy stuff, including oil, natural gas, and even coal. Climate policy has little to do with it. This is by far the world’s biggest trade show, with almost every country represented. There is nothing else like it.”
More at
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/17/cop30-is-the-worlds-biggest-trade-show/
20
FWIW
“COP-30 Insanity Vs the Global Tide of Climate and Energy Reality”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/11/17/cop-30-insanity-vs-the-global-tide-of-climate-and-energy-reality/
20
FWIW
“A Little More COVID Updating…”
https://yardsaleofthemind.wordpress.com/2025/11/17/a-little-more-covid-updating/
Via https://instapundit.com/757262/#disqus_thread
10
FWIW
“The White House Just Nuked the Democrats Over the Epstein Files”
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/11/17/the-white-house-just-nuked-the-democrats-over-the-epstein-files-n4946113
20
FWIW
Sounds like ructions in UK –
“UK political bankruptcy. Labour Starmer Coup”
https://rumble.com/v71tlc6-uk-political-bankruptcy.-labour-starmer-coup.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp_a
20